  Background: Many authors have described MELD as a predictor of short-term
mortality in the liver transplantation waiting list. However MELD score
accuracy to predict long term mortality has not been statistically evaluated.
Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze the MELD score as well as other
variables as a predictor of long-term mortality using a new model: the Survival
Tree analysis. Study Design and Setting: The variables obtained at the time of
liver transplantation list enrollment and considered in this study are: sex,
age, blood type, body mass index, etiology of liver disease, hepatocellular
carcinoma, waiting time for transplant and MELD. Mortality on the waiting list
is the outcome. Exclusion, transplantation or still in the transplantation list
at the end of the study are censored data. Results: The graphical
representation of the survival trees showed that the most statistically
significant cut off is related to MELD score at point 16. Conclusion: The
results are compatible with the cut off point of MELD indicated in the clinical
literature.
