  The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in India has been reported imbalanced since the
1970s. Previous studies have shown a great variation in the SRB across
geographic locations in India till 2016. As one of the most populous countries
and in view of its great regional heterogeneity, it is crucial to produce
probabilistic projections for the SRB in India at state level for the purpose
of population projection and policy planning. In this paper, we implement a
Bayesian hierarchical time series model to project SRB in India by state. We
generate SRB probabilistic projections from 2017 to 2030 for 29 States and
Union Territories (UTs) in India, and present results in 21 States/UTs with
data from the Sample Registration System. Our analysis takes into account two
state-specific factors that contribute to sex-selective abortion and resulting
sex imbalances at birth: intensity of son preference and fertility squeeze. We
project that the largest contribution to female births deficits is in Uttar
Pradesh, with cumulative number of missing female births projected to be 2.0
(95% credible interval [1.9; 2.2]) million from 2017 to 2030. The total female
birth deficits during 2017-2030 for the whole India is projected to be 6.8
[6.6; 7.0] million.
