  In this paper we present a probabilistic analysis framework to estimate
behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation in real time. We develop a forward
model consisting of a spatiotemporal stochastic process that represents the
photovoltaic generation and a stochastic differential equation with jumps that
represents the demand. We employ this model to disaggregate the
behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation using net load and irradiance
measurements.
