  Many DNA profiles recovered from crime scene samples are of a quality that
does not allow them to be searched against, nor entered into, databases. We
propose a method for the comparison of profiles arising from two DNA samples,
one or both of which can have multiple donors and be affected by low DNA
template or degraded DNA. We compute likelihood ratios to evaluate the
hypothesis that the two samples have a common DNA donor, and hypotheses
specifying the relatedness of two donors. Our method uses a probability
distribution for the genotype of the donor of interest in each sample. This
distribution can be obtained from a statistical model, or we can exploit the
ability of trained human experts to assess genotype probabilities, thus
extracting much information that would be discarded by standard interpretation
rules. Our method is compatible with established methods in simple settings,
but is more widely applicable and can make better use of information than many
current methods for the analysis of mixed-source, low-template DNA profiles. It
can accommodate uncertainty arising from relatedness instead of or in addition
to uncertainty arising from noisy genotyping. We describe a computer program
GPMDNA, available under an open source license, to calculate LRs using the
method presented in this paper.
