  To establish an updated understanding of the U.S. textile and apparel (TAP)
industrys competitive position within the global textile environment, trade
data from UN-COMTRADE (1996-2016) was used to calculate the Normalized Revealed
Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index for 169 TAP categories at the four-digit
Harmonized Schedule (HS) code level. Univariate time series using
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models forecast short-term
future performance of Revealed categories with export advantage. Accompanying
outlier analysis examined permanent level shifts that might convey important
information about policy changes, influential drivers and random events.
