  During the last two years, tremendous progress in global data-driven weather
models trained on numerical weather prediction (NWP) re-analysis data has been
made. The most recent models trained on the ERA5 at 0.25{\deg} resolution
demonstrate forecast quality on par with ECMWF's high-resolution model with
respect to a wide selection of verification metrics. In this study, one of
these models, the Pangu-Weather, is compared to several NWP models with and
without probabilistic post-processing for 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind
speed forecasting at 183 Norwegian SYNOP stations up to +60 hours ahead. The
NWP models included are the ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS and the Harmonie-AROME
ensemble model MEPS with 2.5 km spatial resolution. Results show that the
performances of the global models are on the same level with Pangu-Weather
being slightly better than the ECMWF models for temperature and slightly worse
for wind speed. The MEPS model clearly provided the best forecasts for both
parameters. The post-processing improved the forecast quality considerably for
all models, but to a larger extent for the coarse-resolution global models due
to stronger systematic deficiencies in these. Apart from this, the main
characteristics in the scores were more or less the same with and without
post-processing. Our results thus confirm the conclusions from other studies
that global data-driven models are promising for operational weather
forecasting.
