  The study aimed to forecast the total earnings lost of the tourism industry
of the Philippines during the COVID-19 pandemic using seasonal autoregressive
integrated moving average. Several models were considered based on the
autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation graphs. Based on the Akaike's
Information Criterion (AIC) and Root Mean Squared Error,
ARIMA(1,1,1)$\times$(1,0,1)$_{12}$ was identified to be the better model among
the others with an AIC value of $-414.51$ and RMSE of $47884.85$. Moreover, it
is expected that the industry will have an estimated earning loss of around
170.5 billion pesos if the COVID-19 crisis will continue up to July. Possible
recommendations to mitigate the problem includes stopping foreign tourism but
allowing regions for domestic travels if the regions are confirmed to have no
cases of COVID-19, assuming that every regions will follow the stringent
guidelines to eliminate or prevent transmissions; or extending this to
countries with no COVID-19 cases.
