  In an article written five years ago [arXiv:0809.0522], we described a method
for predicting which scientific papers will be highly cited in the future, even
if they are currently not highly cited. Applying the method to real citation
data we made predictions about papers we believed would end up being well
cited. Here we revisit those predictions, five years on, to see how well we
did. Among the over 2000 papers in our original data set, we examine the fifty
that, by the measures of our previous study, were predicted to do best and we
find that they have indeed received substantially more citations in the
intervening years than other papers, even after controlling for the number of
prior citations. On average these top fifty papers have received 23 times as
many citations in the last five years as the average paper in the data set as a
whole, and 15 times as many as the average paper in a randomly drawn control
group that started out with the same number of citations. Applying our
prediction technique to current data, we also make new predictions of papers
that we believe will be well cited in the next few years.
