  The August 2022 special election for the U.S. House of Representatives in
Alaska featured three main candidates and was conducted by the single-winner
ranked choice voting system known as "Instant Runoff Voting." The results of
this election displayed a well-known but relatively rare phenomenon known as
"Condorcet failure:" Nick Begich was eliminated in the first round despite
being more broadly acceptable to the electorate than either of the other two
candidates. More specifically, Begich was the "Condorcet winner" of this
election: Based on the Cast Vote Record, he would have defeated each of the
other two candidates in head-to-head contests, but he was eliminated in the
first round of ballot counting due to receiving the fewest first-place votes.
  The purpose of this paper is to use the data in the Cast Vote Record to
explore the range of likely outcomes if this election had been conducted under
two alternative voting systems: Approval Voting and STAR ("Score Then Automatic
Runoff") Voting. We find that under the best assumptions available about voter
behavior, it is likely -- but not at all certain -- that Peltola would still
have won the election under Approval Voting, while Begich would almost
certainly have won under STAR Voting.
