  This study provided a model for the publication dynamics of researchers,
which is based on the relationship between the publication productivity of
researchers and two covariates: time and historical publication quantity. The
relationship allows to estimate the latent variable the publication creativity
of researchers. The variable is applied to the prediction of publication
productivity for researchers. The statistical significance of the relationship
is validated by the high quality dblp dataset. The effectiveness of the model
is testified on the dataset by the fine fittings on the quantitative
distribution of researchers' publications, the evolutionary trend of their
publication productivity, and the occurrence of publication events. Due to its
nature of regression, the model has the potential to be extended for assessing
the confidence level of prediction results, and thus has clear applicability to
empirical research.
