  The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using
results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical
factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate
models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming
climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains
uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics
than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of
precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well
understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical
contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and
snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and
require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the
influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration
considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical
precipitation extremes to warming.
