  We compare estimates for past institutional research performances coming from
two bibliometric indicators to the results of the UK's Research Assessment
Exercise which last took place in 2008. We demonstrate that a version of the
departmental h-index is better correlated with the actual results of that
peer-review exercise than a competing metric known as the normalised
citation-based indicator. We then determine the corresponding h-indices for
2008-2013, the period examined in the UK's Research Excellence Framework (REF)
2014. We place herewith the resulting predictions on the arXiv in advance of
the REF results being published (December 2014). These may be considered as
unbiased predictions of relative performances in that exercise. We will revisit
this paper after the REF results are available and comment on the reliability
or otherwise of these bibliometrics as compared with peer review.
