  As we anticipate the first results of the 2016 run, we assess the discovery
potential of the LHC to `natural supersymmetry'. To begin with, we explore the
region of the model parameter space that can be excluded with various
centre-of-mass energies (13 TeV and 14 TeV) and different luminosities (20
fb$^{-1}$, 100 fb$^{-1}$, 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$). We find that the
bounds at 95% CL on stops vary from $m_{\tilde{t}_1}\gtrsim 900$ GeV expected
this summer to $m_{\tilde{t}_1}\gtrsim 1500$ GeV at the end of the high
luminosity run, while gluino bounds are expected to range from
$m_{\tilde{g}}\gtrsim 1700$ GeV to $m_{\tilde{g}}\gtrsim 2500$ GeV over the
same time period. However, more pessimistically we find that if no signal
begins to appear this summer, only a very small region of parameter space can
be discovered with 5-$\sigma$ significance. For this conclusion to change, we
find that both theoretical and systematic uncertainties will need to be
significantly reduced.
