  Background: The analysis of the Sars-CoV-2 epidemic is of paramount
importance to understand the dynamics of the coronavirus spread. This can help
health and government authorities take the appropriate measures and implement
suitable politics aimed at fighting and preventing it. Methods: A
time-dependent dynamic SEIR model inspired in a model previously used during
the MERS outbreak in South Korea was used to analyse the time trajectories of
active and hospitalized cases in Portugal. Results: The time evolution of the
virus spread in the country was adequately modelled. The model has changeable
parameters every five days since the onset of mitigation measures. A peak of
about 22,000 active cases is estimated, although the official value for
recovered cases is out of date. Hospitalized cases could reach a peak of about
1,250 cases, of which 200/300 in ICU units. Conclusion: With appropriate
measures, the number of active cases in Portugal can be controlled at about
22,000 people, of which about 1,250 hospitalized and 200/300 in ICU units. This
seems manageable by the country national health service with an estimated 1,140
ventilators.
