  When studying a national-level population, demographers can safely ignore the
effect of individual-level randomness on age-sex structure. When studying a
single community, or group of communities, however, the potential importance of
individual-level randomness is less clear. We seek to measure the effect of
individual-level randomness in births and deaths on standard summary indicators
of age-sex structure, for populations of different sizes, focusing on on
demographic conditions typical of historical populations. We conduct a
microsimulation experiment where we simulate events and age-sex structure under
a range of settings for demographic rates and population size. The experiment
results suggest that individual-level randomness strongly affects age-sex
structure for populations of about 100, but has a much smaller effect on
populations of 1,000, and a negligible effect on populations of 10,000. Our
conclusion is that analyses of age-sex structure in historical populations with
sizes on the order 100 must account for individual-level randomness in
demographic events. Analyses of populations with sizes on the order of 1,000
may need to make some allowance for individual-level variation, but other
issues, such as measurement error, probably deserve more attention. Analyses of
populations of 10,000 can safely ignore individual-level variation.
