  We analysed publicly available data on place of occurrence of COVID-19 deaths
from national statistical agencies in the UK between March 9 2020 and February
28 2021. We introduce a modified Weibull model that describes the deaths due to
COVID-19 at a national and place of occurrence level. We observe similar trends
in the UK where deaths due to COVID-19 first peak in Homes, followed by
Hospitals and Care Homes 1-2 weeks later in the first and second waves. This is
in line with the infectious period of the disease, indicating a possible
transmission vehicle between the settings. Our results show that the first wave
is characterised by fast growth and a slow reduction after the peak in deaths
due to COVID-19. The second and third waves have the converse property, with
slow growth and a rapid decrease from the peak. This difference may result from
behavioural changes in the population (social distancing, masks, etc). Finally,
we introduce a double logistic model to describe the dynamic proportion of
COVID-19 deaths occurring in each setting. This analysis reveals that the
proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in Care Homes increases from the start
of the pandemic and past the peak in total number of COVID-19 deaths in the
first wave. After the catastrophic impact in the first wave, the proportion of
COVID-19 deaths occurring in Care Homes gradually decreased from is maximum
after the first wave indicating residence were better protected in the second
and third waves compared to the first.
