  This study evaluates the health effects of long-term exposure to PM10 in
Seoul. Building on the preliminary model Shin and Bithell (2019), an in-silico
agent-based model (ABM) is used to simulate the travel patterns of individuals
according to their origins and destinations. During the simulation, each
person, with their inherent socio-economic attributes and allocated origin and
destination location, is assumed to commute to and from the same places for 10
consecutive years. A nominal measure of their health is set to decrease
whenever the concentration of PM10 exceeds the national standard. Sensitivity
analysis on calibrated parameters reveals increased vulnerability among certain
demographic groups, particularly those aged over 65 and under 15, with a
significant health decline associated with road proximity. The study reveals a
substantial health disparity after 7,000 simulation ticks (equivalent to 10
years), especially under scenarios of a 3% annual increase in pollution levels.
Long-term exposure to PM10 has a significant impact on health vulnerabilities,
despite initial resilience being minimal. The study emphasises the importance
of future research that takes into account different pollution thresholds as
well as more detailed models of population dynamics and pollution generation in
order to better understand and mitigate the health effects of air pollution on
diverse urban populations.
