  The development of hydraulic fracturing technology has dramatically increased
the supply and lowered the cost of natural gas in the United States, driving an
expansion of natural gas-fired generation capacity in several electrical
inter-connections. Gas-fired generators have the capability to ramp quickly and
are often utilized by grid operators to balance intermittency caused by wind
generation. The time-varying output of these generators results in time-varying
natural gas consumption rates that impact the pressure and line-pack of the gas
network. As gas system operators assume nearly constant gas consumption when
estimating pipeline transfer capacity and for planning operations, such
fluctuations are a source of risk to their system. Here, we develop a new
method to assess this risk. We consider a model of gas networks with
consumption modeled through two components: forecasted consumption and small
spatio-temporarily varying consumption due to the gas-fired generators being
used to balance wind. While the forecasted consumption is globally balanced
over longer time scales, the fluctuating consumption causes pressure
fluctuations in the gas system to grow diffusively in time with a diffusion
rate sensitive to the steady but spatially-inhomogeneous forecasted
distribution of mass flow. To motivate our approach, we analyze the effect of
fluctuating gas consumption on a model of the Transco gas pipeline that extends
from the Gulf of Mexico to the Northeast of the United States.
