  Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, I study the high-frequency
real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business
Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia. I track the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compare
them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as
its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to
indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. I show, moreover, that
the daily real activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19
cases. Finally, I provide a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals
provided when exiting the Great Recession.
