  The "New York State on Pause" executive order came into effect on March 22
with the goal of ensuring adequate social distancing to alleviate the spread of
COVID-19. Pause will remain effective in New York City in some form until early
June. We use a compartmentalized model to study the effects of testing capacity
and social distancing measures on the evolution of the pandemic in the
"post-Pause" period in the City. We find that testing capacity must increase
dramatically if it is to counterbalance even relatively small relaxations in
social distancing measures in the immediate post-Pause period. In particular,
if the City performs 20,000 tests per day and relaxes the social distancing
measures to the pre-Pause norms, then the total number of deaths by the end of
September can reach 250,000. By keeping the social distancing measures to
somewhere halfway between the pre- and in-Pause norms and performing 100,000
tests per day, the total number of deaths by the end of September can be kept
at around 27,000. Going back to the pre-Pause social distancing norms quickly
must be accompanied by an exorbitant testing capacity, if one is to suppress
excessive deaths. If the City is to go back to the "pre-Pause" social
distancing norms in the immediate post-Pause period and keep the total number
of deaths by the end of September at around 35,000, then it should be
performing 500,000 tests per day. Our findings have important implications on
the magnitude of the testing capacity the City needs as it relaxes the social
distancing measures to reopen its economy.
