  We present the bolometric lightcurve, identification and analysis of the
progenitor candidate, and preliminary modelling of AT2016jbu (Gaia16cfr). We
find a progenitor consistent with a $\sim$22--25~$M_{\odot}$ yellow hypergiant
surrounded by a dusty circumstellar shell, in agreement with what has been
previously reported. We see evidence for significant photometric variability in
the progenitor, as well as strong H$\alpha$ emission consistent with
pre-existing circumstellar material. The age of the environment as well as the
resolved stellar population surrounding AT2016jbu, support a progenitor age of
$>$10 Myr, consistent with a progenitor mass of $\sim$22~$M_{\odot}$. A joint
analysis of the velocity evolution of AT2016jbu, and the photospheric radius
inferred from the bolometric lightcurve shows the transient is consistent with
two successive outbursts/explosions. The first outburst ejected material with
velocity $\sim$650$kms^{-1}$, while the second, more energetic event, ejected
material at $\sim$4500$kms^{-1}$. Whether the latter is the core-collapse of
the progenitor remains uncertain. We place a limit on the ejected $^{56}$Ni
mass of $<$0.016$M_{\odot}$. Using the BPASS code, we explore a wide range of
possible progenitor systems, and find that the majority of these are in
binaries, some of which are undergoing mass transfer or common envelope
evolution immediately prior to explosion. Finally, we use the SNEC code to
demonstrate that the low-energy explosion within some of these binary systems,
together with sufficient CSM, can reproduce the overall morphology of the
lightcurve of AT2016jbu.
