  We tackle the problem of predicting the performance of MapReduce
applications, designing accurate progress indicators that keep programmers
informed on the percentage of completed computation time during the execution
of a job. Through extensive experiments, we show that state-of-the-art progress
indicators (including the one provided by Hadoop) can be seriously harmed by
data skewness, load unbalancing, and straggling tasks. This is mainly due to
their implicit assumption that the running time depends linearly on the input
size. We thus design a novel profile-guided progress indicator, called
NearestFit, that operates without the linear hypothesis assumption and exploits
a careful combination of nearest neighbor regression and statistical curve
fitting techniques. Our theoretical progress model requires fine-grained
profile data, that can be very difficult to manage in practice. To overcome
this issue, we resort to computing accurate approximations for some of the
quantities used in our model through space- and time-efficient data streaming
algorithms. We implemented NearestFit on top of Hadoop 2.6.0. An extensive
empirical assessment over the Amazon EC2 platform on a variety of real-world
benchmarks shows that NearestFit is practical w.r.t. space and time overheads
and that its accuracy is generally very good, even in scenarios where
competitors incur non-negligible errors and wide prediction fluctuations.
Overall, NearestFit significantly improves the current state-of-art on progress
analysis for MapReduce.
