  Using the trends of estimated abilities in terms of item response theory for
online testing, we can predict the success/failure status for the final
examination to each student at early stages in courses. In prediction, we
applied the newly developed nearest neighbor method for determining the
similarity of learning skill in the trends of estimated abilities, resulting a
better prediction accuracy for success or failure. This paper shows that the
use of the learning analytics incorporating the trends for abilities is
effective. ROC curve and recall precision curve are informative to assist the
proposed method.
