  In this paper, we use SEIR equations to make predictions for the number of
mortality due to COVID-19 in \.Istanbul. Using excess mortality method, we find
the number of mortality for the previous three waves in 2020 and 2021. We show
that the predictions of our model is consistent with number of moralities for
each wave. Furthermore, we predict the number of mortality for the second wave
of 2021. We also extend our analysis for Germany, Italy and Turkey to compare
the basic reproduction number $R_0$ for Istanbul. Finally, we calculate the
number of infected people in Istanbul for herd immunity.
