  We forecast Irregular Leadership Changes (ILC)--unexpected leadership changes
in contravention of a state's established laws and conventions--for mid-2014
using predictions generated from an innovative ensemble model that is composed
of several split-population duration regression models. This approach uses
distinct thematic models, combining them into one aggregate forecast developed
on the basis of their predictive accuracy and uniqueness. The data are based on
45 ILCs that occurred from March 2001 through March 2014, with monthly
observations for up to 168 countries worldwide. The ensemble model provides
forecasts for the period from April to September 2014. Notably, the countries
with the highest probability of irregular leadership change in the middle six
months of 2014 include the Ukraine, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Yemen, Egypt, and
Thailand. The leadership in these countries have exhibited fragility during
this forecast window.
