  In all competitions where results are based upon an individual's performance
the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises.
We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of
approximately one million contestants playing Fantasy Premier League, an online
fantasy sport where managers choose players from the English football (soccer)
league. We show that managers' ranks over multiple seasons are correlated and
we analyse the actions taken by managers to increase their likelihood of
success. The prime factors in determining a manager's success are found to be
long-term planning and consistently good decision-making in the face of the
noisy contests upon which this game is based. Similarities between managers'
decisions over time that result in the emergence of 'template' teams,
suggesting a form of herding dynamics taking place within the game, are also
observed. Taken together, these findings indicate common strategic
considerations and consensus among successful managers on crucial decision
points over an extended temporal period.
