  The Tigray War was an armed conflict that took place primarily in the Tigray
region of northern Ethiopia from November 3, 2020 to November 2, 2022. Given
the importance of agriculture in Tigray to livelihoods and food security,
determining the impact of the war on cultivated area is critical. However,
quantifying this impact was difficult due to restricted movement within and
into the region and conflict-driven insecurity and blockages. Using satellite
imagery and statistical area estimation techniques, we assessed changes in crop
cultivation area in Tigray before and during the war. Our findings show that
cultivated area was largely stable between 2020-2021 despite the widespread
impacts of the war. We estimated $1,132,000\pm133,000$ hectares of cultivation
in pre-war 2020 compared to $1,217,000 \pm 132,000$ hectares in wartime 2021.
Comparing changes inside and outside of a 5 km buffer around conflict events,
we found a slightly higher upper confidence limit of cropland loss within the
buffer (0-3%) compared to outside the buffer (0-1%). Our results support other
reports that despite widespread war-related disruptions, Tigrayan farmers were
largely able to sustain cultivation. Our study demonstrates the capability of
remote sensing combined with machine learning and statistical techniques to
provide timely, transparent area estimates for monitoring food security in
regions inaccessible due to conflict.
