  This article is devoted to the forecast of the Africa Cup of Nations 2019
football tournament. It is based on a Poisson regression model that includes
the Elo points of the participating teams as covariates and incorporates
differences of team-specific skills. The proposed model allows predictions in
terms of probabilities in order to quantify the chances for each team to reach
a certain stage of the tournament. Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate
the outcome of each single match of the tournament and hence to simulate the
whole tournament itself. The model is fitted on all football games on neutral
ground of the participating teams since 2010.
