  The revolution and Civil War in Syria has led to substantial death and
suffering, a massive refugee crisis, and growth of ISIS extremism and its
terror attacks globally. Conflict between disparate groups is ongoing. Complex
ethnic geography is a central reason for the large number of different groups
in conflict as this geography leads to local allegiances that do not aggregate
at the national scale. We have previously demonstrated that, where ethnic
groups exist in geographic patches of 20-60 km in diameter, there is a high
probability of conflict. We have also shown that establishing local autonomy
through subnational boundaries (as is found in Switzerland) is a means of
alleviating conflict. Our analysis suggests that providing some level of local
autonomy to the ethnic groups would reduce the impetus for local conflict and
could serve as a basis for peace and stability. Here we propose that
interventions should be pursued to stop specific individual local conflicts,
creating safe zones, that can be expanded gradually and serve as examples for
achieving a comprehensive solution for safety, peace and stable local
governance in Syria.
