  We present a dynamic physico-economic model of Earth orbit use with
endogenous satellite collision risk to study conditions under which
debris-producing collisions between orbiting bodies result in debris growth
that may render Earth's orbits unusable, an outcome known as Kessler Syndrome.
We characterize the dynamics of objects in orbit under open access as well as
when external costs -- the impact of an additional satellite launch on the
collision risk faced by all satellites -- are internalized, and we show that
Kessler Syndrome can emerge in both cases. Finally, we show that once the
economic incentives of satellite launching are modeled, for Kessler Syndrome to
emerge, autocatalytic debris growth is essential. In our main calibration,
Kessler Syndrome can emerge anytime between the year 2040 and the year 2184,
with the precise date being very sensitive to the calibration of autocatalytic
debris growth parameters.
