  We demonstrate a comprehensive framework that accounts for citation dynamics
of scientific papers and for the age distribution of references. We show that
citation dynamics of scientific papers is nonlinear and this nonlinearity has
far-reaching consequences, such as diverging citation distributions and runaway
papers. We propose a nonlinear stochastic dynamic model of citation dynamics
based on link copying/redirection mechanism. The model is fully calibrated by
empirical data and does not contain free parameters. This model can be a basis
for quantitative probabilistic prediction of citation dynamics of individual
papers and of the journal impact factor.
