  Assessing the economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic and public health policies
is essential for a rapid recovery. In this paper, we analyze the impact of
mobility contraction on furloughed workers and excess deaths in Italy. We
provide a link between the reduction of mobility and excess deaths, confirming
that the first countrywide lockdown has been effective in curtailing the
COVID-19 epidemics. Our analysis points out that a mobility contraction of 10%
leads to a mortality reduction of 5% whereas it leads to an increase of 50% in
full time equivalent furloughed workers. Based on our results, we propose a
prioritizing policy for the most advanced stage of the COVID-19 vaccination
campaign, considering the unemployment risk of the healthy active population.
Keywords: COVID-19 mortality; Furlough schemes; Economic impact of lockdowns;
Vaccination rollout: Unemployment risk
