  This synthetic control study quantifies the economic costs of the
Russo-Ukrainian war in terms of foregone entrepreneurial activity in both
countries since the invasion of Crimea in 2014. Relative to its synthetic
counterfactual, Ukraine's number of self-employed dropped by 675,000,
corresponding to a relative loss of 20%. The number of Ukrainian SMEs
temporarily dropped by 71,000 (14%) and recovered within five years of the
conflict. In contrast, Russia had lost more than 1.4 million SMEs (42%) five
years into the conflict. The disappearance of Russian SMEs is driven by both
fewer new businesses created and more existing business closures.
