  Spontaneous brain activity, as observed in functional neuroimaging, has been
shown to display reproducible structure that expresses brain architecture and
carries markers of brain pathologies. An important view of modern neuroscience
is that such large-scale structure of coherent activity reflects modularity
properties of brain connectivity graphs. However, to date, there has been no
demonstration that the limited and noisy data available in spontaneous activity
observations could be used to learn full-brain probabilistic models that
generalize to new data. Learning such models entails two main challenges: i)
modeling full brain connectivity is a difficult estimation problem that faces
the curse of dimensionality and ii) variability between subjects, coupled with
the variability of functional signals between experimental runs, makes the use
of multiple datasets challenging. We describe subject-level brain functional
connectivity structure as a multivariate Gaussian process and introduce a new
strategy to estimate it from group data, by imposing a common structure on the
graphical model in the population. We show that individual models learned from
functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data using this population prior
generalize better to unseen data than models based on alternative
regularization schemes. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a
cross-validated model of spontaneous brain activity. Finally, we use the
estimated graphical model to explore the large-scale characteristics of
functional architecture and show for the first time that known cognitive
networks appear as the integrated communities of functional connectivity graph.
