  Artificial general intelligence (AGI) does not yet exist, but given the pace
of technological development in artificial intelligence, it is projected to
reach human-level intelligence within roughly the next two decades. After that,
many experts expect it to far surpass human intelligence and to do so rapidly.
The prospect of superintelligent AGI poses an existential risk to humans
because there is no reliable method for ensuring that AGI goals stay aligned
with human goals. Drawing on publicly available forecaster and opinion data,
the author examines how experts and non-experts perceive risk from AGI. The
findings indicate that the perceived risk of a world catastrophe or extinction
from AGI is greater than for other existential risks. The increase in perceived
risk over the last year is also steeper for AGI than for other existential
threats (e.g., nuclear war or human-caused climate change). That AGI is a
pressing existential risk is something on which experts and non-experts agree,
but the basis for such agreement currently remains obscure.
