  In this paper, we have initiated an attempt to develop and understand the
driving mechanisms that underlie fourth-generation warfare. We have undertaken
this from a perspective of endeavoring to understand the drivers of these
events from a Complexity perspective by using a threshold-type percolation
model. We propose to integrate this strategic level model with tactical level
Big Data, behavioral, statistical projections via a fractal operational level
model and to construct a hierarchical framework that allows dynamic prediction.
Our initial study concentrates on this strategic level, i.e. a percolation
model.
  Our main conclusion from this initial study is that extremist terrorist
events are not solely driven by the size of a supporting population within a
socio-geographical location but rather a combination of ideological factors
that also depends upon the involvement of the host population. This
involvement, through the social, political and psychological fabric of society,
not only contributes to the active participation of terrorists within society
but also directly contributes to and increases the likelihood of the occurrence
of terrorist events.
  Our calculations demonstrate the links between Islamic extremist terrorist
events, the ideologies within the Muslim and non-Muslim population that
facilitates these terrorist events (such as Anti-Zionism) and anti-Semitic
occurrences of violence against the Jewish population.
  In a future paper, we hope to extend the work undertaken to construct a
predictive model and extend our calculations to other forms of terrorism such
as Right Wing fundamentalist terrorist events within the USA.
