  It is still largely unclear to what extent bettors update their prior
assumptions about the strength and form of competing teams considering the
dynamics during the match. This is of interest not only from the psychological
perspective, but also as the pricing of live odds ideally should be driven both
by the (objective) outcome probabilities and also the bettors' behaviour. Using
state-space models (SSMs) to account for the dynamically evolving latent
sentiment of the betting market, we analyse a unique high-frequency data set on
stakes placed during the match. We find that stakes in the live-betting market
are driven both by perceived pre-game strength and by in-game strength, the
latter as measured by the Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities (VAEP)
approach. Both effects vary over the course of the match.
