  In light of climate change's impacts on forests, including extreme drought
and late-frost, leading to vitality decline and regional forest die-back, we
assess univariate drought and late-frost risks and perform a joint risk
analysis in Bavaria, Germany, from 1952 to 2020. Utilizing a vast dataset with
26 bioclimatic and topographic variables, we employ vine copula models due to
the data's non-Gaussian and asymmetric dependencies. We use D-vine regression
for univariate and Y-vine regression for bivariate analysis, and propose
corresponding univariate and bivariate conditional probability risk measures.
We identify "at-risk" regions, emphasizing the need for forest adaptation due
to climate change.
