  Several countries are currently investigating issues of neglect, poor quality
care and abuse in the aged care sector. In most cases it is the State who
license and monitor aged care providers, which frequently introduces a serious
conflict of interest because the State also operate many of the facilities
where our most vulnerable peoples are cared for. Where issues are raised with
the standard of care being provided, the State are seen by many as a
deep-pockets defendant and become the target of high-value lawsuits. This paper
draws on cases and circumstances from one jurisdiction based on the English
legal tradition, Australia, and proposes a Bayesian solution capable of
determining probability for success for citizen plaintiffs who bring negligence
claims against a public authority defendant. Use of a Bayesian network trained
on case audit data shows that even when the plaintiff case meets all
requirements for a successful negligence litigation, success is not often
assured. Only in around one-fifth of these cases does the plaintiff succeed
against a public authority as defendant.
