  There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and
control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. Consequently, there are
increasing concerns and interest in designing efficient strategies and
regulations that health agencies can follow in order to reduce the imminent
impact of viruses like Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. That includes fumigation,
abatization, reducing the hatcheries, picking up trash, information campaigns.
A basic question that arise when designing control strategies is about which
and where these ones should focus. In other words, one would like to know
whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which
area of the city, is more efficient. In this work, we propose risk indexes
based on the idea of secondary cases from patch to patch. Thus, they take into
account human mobility and indicate which patch has more chance to be a
corridor for the spread of the disease and which is more vulnerable. They can
also indicate the neighborhood where hatchery control will reduce more the
number of potential cases. In order to illustrate the usefulness of these
indexes, we run a set of numerical simulations in a mathematical model that
takes into account the urban mobility and the differences in population density
among the areas of a city. If i is a particular neighborhood, the transmission
risk index TR_i measures the potential secondary cases caused by a host in that
neighborhood. The vector transmission risk index VTR_i measures the potential
secondary cases caused by a vector. Finally, the vulnerability risk index VR_i
measures the potential secondary cases in the neighborhood. Transmission
indexes can be used to give geographical priority to some neighborhoods when
applying prevention and control measures. On the other hand, the vulnerability
index can be useful to implement monitoring campaigns or public health
investment.
