  Bovine tuberculosis, a disease that affects cattle and badgers in Ireland,
was studied via stochastic epidemic modeling using incidence data from the Four
Area Project (Griffin et al., 2005). The Four Area Project was a large scale
field trial conducted in four diverse farming regions of Ireland over a
five-year period (1997-2002) to evaluate the impact of badger culling on bovine
tuberculosis incidence in cattle herds.
  Based on the comparison of several models, the model with no between-herd
transmission and badger-to-herd transmission proportional to the total number
of infected badgers culled was best supported by the data.
  Detailed model validation was conducted via model prediction, identifiability
checks and sensitivity analysis.
  The results suggest that badger-to-cattle transmission is of more importance
than between-herd transmission and that if there was no badger-to-herd
transmission, levels of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds in Ireland could
decrease considerably.
