  The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics recognized a theory of causal inference,
which deserves more attention from philosophers. To that end, I develop a
dialectic that extends the Lewis-Stalnaker debate on a logical principle called
Conditional Excluded Middle (CEM). I first play the good cop for CEM, and give
a new argument for it: a Quine-Putnam indispensability argument based on the
Nobel-Prize winning theory. But then I switch sides and play the bad cop: I
undermine that argument with a new theory of causal inference that preserves
the success of the original theory but dispenses with CEM.
