  Ignition capability is a critical design constraint for aeronautical gas
turbines. However the current trend toward overall lean burn is detrimental to
the engine ignition and relight and the ignition system must be adapted to
ensure a fast and reliable light-round in all circumstances. As ignition is a
stochastic phenomenon, the optimization of an ignition system requires to build
ignition probability maps, which is difficult and costly with either experiment
or numerical simulation as both require many tests. This work proposes a model
to predict the ignition probability map, knowing only flow statistics in
non-reacting conditions, i.e., with only one test. The originality of the model
is to construct statistics of the flame kernel trajectory, which are then
combined with local flow indicators to evaluate the ignition probability at the
considered sparking location. Application to a swirled burner operated in
premixed, non-premixed and spray combustion modes illustrates the model
concepts and demonstrates its ability to recover the experimental ignition map
with good accuracy.
