  To achieve the goal of deep decarbonization of the electricity system, more
and more variable renewable energy (VRE) is being adopted. However, there is no
consensus among researchers on whether the goal can be accomplished without
large cost escalation if nuclear power is excluded in the future electricity
system. In Sweden, where nuclear power generated 41% of the annual electricity
supply in 2014, the official goal is 100% renewable electricity production by
2040. Therefore, we investigate the cost of a future low-carbon electricity
system without nuclear power for Sweden. We model the European electricity
system with a focus on Sweden and run a techno-economic cost optimization model
for capacity investment and dispatch of generation, transmission, storage and
demand-response, under a CO2 emission constraint of 10 g/kWh. Our results show
that there are no, or only minor, cost benefits to reinvest in nuclear power
plants in Sweden once the old ones are decommissioned. This holds for a large
range of assumptions on technology costs and possibilities for investment in
additional transmission capacity. We contrast our results with the recent study
that claims severe cost penalties for not allowing nuclear power in Sweden and
discuss the implications of methodology choice.
