  The project management field has the imperative to increase the project
probability of success. Experts have developed several project management
maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current
literature lacks of models allowing correlating the measured maturity and the
expected probability of success. This paper uses the characteristics of
Bayesian networks to formalize experts' knowledge and to extract knowledge from
a project overcost database. It develops a method to estimate the impact of
project management maturity on the risk of project overcost. A general
framework is presented. An industrial case is used to illustrate the
application of the method.
