  Climate-mediated changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of thermal stress
can destabilize animal populations and promote extinction risk. Using quantile,
spectral, and wavelet analyses of temperature projections from the latest
generation of earth system models, we show that significant regional
differences are expected to arise in the way that temperatures will increase
over time. When integrated into empirically-parameterized mathematical models
that simulate the dynamical and cumulative effects of thermal stress on the
performance of 38 global ectotherm species, the projected spatiotemporal
changes in temperature fluctuations are expected to give rise to complex
regional changes in population abundance and stability over the course of the
21st century. However, despite their idiosyncratic effects on stability,
projected temperatures universally increase extinction risk. These results show
that population changes under future climate conditions may be more extensive
and complex than the current literature suggests based on the statistical
relationship between biological performance and average temperature.
