  With approximately half of the world's population at risk of contracting
dengue, this mosquito-borne disease is of global concern. International
travellers significantly contribute to dengue's rapid and large-scale spread by
importing the disease from endemic into non-endemic countries. To prevent
future outbreaks and dengue from establishing in non-endemic countries,
knowledge about the arrival time and location of infected travellers is
crucial. We propose a network model that predicts the monthly number of
dengue-infected air passengers arriving at any given airport. We consider
international air travel volumes to construct weighted networks, representing
passenger flows between airports. We further calculate the probability of
passengers, who travel through the international air transport network, being
infected with dengue. The probability of being infected depends on the
destination, duration and timing of travel. Our findings shed light onto dengue
importation routes and reveal country-specific reporting rates that have been
until now largely unknown. This paper provides important new knowledge about
the spreading dynamics of dengue that is highly beneficial for public health
authorities to strategically allocate the often limited resources to more
efficiently prevent the spread of dengue.
