  The purpose of these notes is to present an assessment of the probability of
a candidate be elected in a two-round presidential election. In the first
round, all candidates can be voted on. If one of them has more than 50% of the
vote (s)he is elected and there is no second round. If none of the candidates
obtain more than 50% of the votes, then the top two candidates will be selected
for a second round. In this second round, the most voted candidate is elected.
This is the scenario of the Brazilian elections that are taking place at the
moment. We are calculating the odds associated with the 2018 presidential
elections in Brazil. The first round is on October 7, and the second round is
on October 28, 2018.
