  This paper sketches a new approach using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to
operably map and simulate digital transformation in architecture and urban
planning. Today these processes are poorly understood. Many current studies on
digital transformation are only treating questions of economic efficiency.
Sustainability and social impact only play a minor role. Decisive definitions,
concepts and terms stay unclear. Therefore this paper develops an open
experimental testbed for sustainable and innovative environments (ETSIE) for
three different digital transformation scenarios using FCMs. A traditional
growth-oriented scenario, a COVID-19 scenario and an innovative and sustainable
COVID-19 scenario are modeled and tested. All three scenarios have the same
number of components, connections and the same driver components. Only the
initial state vectors are different and the internal correlations are weighted
differently. This allows for comparing all three scenarios on an equal basis.
The mental modeler software is used (Gray et al. 2013). This paper presents one
of the first applications of FCMs in the context of digital transformation. It
is shown, that the traditional growth-oriented scenario is structurally very
similar to the current COVID-19 scenario. The current pandemic is able to
accelerate digital transformation to a certain extent. But the pandemic does
not guarantee for a distinct sustainable and innovative future development.
Only by changing the initial state vectors and the weights of the connections
an innovative and sustainable turnaround in a third scenario becomes possible.
