  Bubbles drive gas and chemical transfers in various industrial and
geophysical context, in which flows are typically turbulent. A knowledge of the
bubble size distributions is then necessary to quantify mass fluxes across
interfaces. In a turbulent flow, every bubble might break, depending on both
the ratio between inertial and capillary forces at its scale, namely the Weber
number We. For inhomogeneous and unstationary flows, the residence time within
a turbulent region will also determine the break-up probability. In this work,
we use a stochastic linear model, whose parameters have been measured using
direct numerical simulations, to infer the breakup probability of bubbles in
turbulence as function of the Weber number and the residence time. Our model
shows that bubble breakup is a memoryless process, whose breakup rate varies
exponentially with $\textrm{We}^{-1}$. This linear model successfully
reproduces breakup rates previously measured experimentally.
