  Estimates from infectious disease models have constituted a significant part
of the scientific evidence used to inform the response to the COVID-19 pandemic
in the UK. These estimates can vary strikingly in their bias and variability.
Epidemiological forecasts should be consistent with the observations that
eventually materialise. We use simple scoring rules to refine the forecasts of
a novel statistical model for multisource COVID-19 surveillance data by tuning
its smoothness hyperparameter.
