  This paper presents a framework for the representation of uncertainty in the
estimates for software design projects for use throughout the entire project
lifecycle. The framework is flexible in order to accommodate uncertainty in the
project and utilises Monte Carlo simulation to compute the propagation of
uncertainty in effort estimates towards the total project uncertainty and
therefore gives a project manager the means to make informed decisions
throughout the project life. The framework also provides a mechanism for
accumulating project knowledge through the use of a historical database,
allowing effort estimates to be informed by, or indeed based upon, the outcome
of previous projects. Initial results using simulated data are presented and
avenues for further work are discussed.
