  We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies
that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports
the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by
speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also
attempt to unravel the information hidden in the oil supply-demand data
reported by two leading agencies, the US Energy Information Administration
(EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). We suggest that the found
increasing discrepancy between the EIA and IEA figures provides a measure of
the estimation errors. Rather than a clear transition to a supply restricted
regime, we interpret the discrepancy between the IEA and EIA as a signature of
uncertainty, and there is no better fuel than uncertainty to promote
speculation!
