  This study investigates the long-term economic impact of sea-level rise (SLR)
on coastal regions in Europe, focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using a
novel dataset covering regional SLR and economic growth from 1900 to 2020, we
quantify the relationships between SLR and regional GDP per capita across 79
coastal EU & UK regions. Our results reveal that the current SLR has already
negatively influenced GDP of coastal regions, leading to a cumulative 4.7% loss
at 39 cm of SLR. Over the 120 year period studied, the actualised impact of SLR
on the annual growth rate is between -0.02% and 0.04%. Extrapolating these
findings to future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we show that in the
absence of additional adaptation measures, GDP losses by 2100 could range
between -6.3% and -20.8% under the most extreme SLR scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5
High-end Ice, or -4.0% to -14.1% in SSP5-RCP8.5 High Ice). This statistical
analysis utilising a century-long dataset, provides an empirical foundation for
designing region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate economic
damages caused by SLR. Our evidence supports the argument for strategically
relocating assets and establishing coastal setback zones when it is
economically preferable and socially agreeable, given that protection
investments have an economic impact.
