  This study explores the interactions between order sizes, batch sizes and
potential product recalls within a FIFO assignment policy. Evidence is provided
that the extent of a product recall is related to the fragmentation of the
batches of input materials as it amplifies the impact of a crisis. A new
management indicator is proposed in order to quantify the expected number of
fragments composing a customer order FrBO. A probabilistic analysis reveals
that for a given likelihood of crisis, the presence of different batches in a
customer order will largely increase its risk. Accordingly, a new equation is
proposed for calculating the expected recall size. Taking into account the
fragmentation measure allows, for the first time, for the integration of a
proactive product recall policy in the batch sizing decision process. A Monte
Carlo simulation is performed to validate the effectiveness of this approach.
