  Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow
a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed.
We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams
is superior and examine the probability that the outcome of the experiment
(match) truly represents the relative abilities of the two teams. Given a final
score, it is possible by using a Bayesian approach to quantify the probability
that it was or was not the case that 'the best team won'. For typical scores,
the probability of a misleading result is significant. Modifying the rules of
the game to increase the typical number of goals scored would improve the
situation, but a level of confidence that would normally be regarded as
satisfactory could not be obtained unless the character of the game was
radically changed.
