  Supply chain disruptions cause shortages of raw material and products. To
increase resilience, i.e., the ability to cope with shocks, substituting goods
in established supply chains can become an effective alternative to creating
new distribution links. We demonstrate its impact on supply deficits through a
detailed analysis of the US opioid distribution system. Reconstructing 40
billion empirical distribution paths, our data-driven model allows a unique
inspection of policies that increase the substitution flexibility. Our approach
enables policymakers to quantify the trade-off between increasing flexibility,
i.e., reduced supply deficits, and increasing complexity of the supply chain,
which could make it more expensive to operate.
