  In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid
perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a
prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or
semianalytical theory, generates an initial approximation that contains some
inaccuracies derived from the fact that, in order to simplify the expressions
and subsequent computations, not all the involved forces are taken into account
and only low-order terms are considered, not to mention the fact that
mathematical models of perturbations not always reproduce physical phenomena
with absolute precision. The prediction technique, which can be based on either
statistical time series models or computational intelligence methods, is aimed
at modelling and reproducing missing dynamics in the previously integrated
approximation. This combination results in the precision improvement of
conventional numerical, analytical and semianalytical theories for determining
the position and velocity of any artificial satellite or space debris object.
In order to validate this methodology, we present a family of three hybrid
orbit propagators formed by the combination of three different orders of
approximation of an analytical theory and a statistical time series model, and
analyse their capability to process the effect produced by the flattening of
the Earth. The three considered analytical components are the integration of
the Kepler problem, a first-order and a second-order analytical theories,
whereas the prediction technique is the same in the three cases, namely an
additive Holt-Winters method.
