  The change in degree of organization of the magnetosphere during substorms is
investigated by analyzing various geomagnetic indices, as well as
interplanetary magnetic field z-component and solar wind flow speed. We
conclude that the magnetosphere self-organizes globally during substorms, but
neither the magnetosphere nor the solar wind become more predictable in the
course of a substorm. This conclusion is based on analysis of five hundred
substorms in the period from 2000 to 2002. A minimal dynamic-stochastic model
of the driven magnetosphere that reproduces many statistical features of
substorm indices is discussed.
