  The very first case of corona-virus illness was recorded on 30 January 2020,
in India and the number of infected cases, including the death toll, continues
to rise. In this paper, we present short-term forecasts of COVID-19 for 28
Indian states and five union territories using real-time data from 30 January
to 21 April 2020. Applying Holt's second-order exponential smoothing method and
autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, we generate 10-day
ahead forecasts of the likely number of infected cases and deaths in India for
22 April to 1 May 2020. Our results show that the number of cumulative cases in
India will rise to 36335.63 [PI 95% (30884.56, 42918.87)], concurrently the
number of deaths may increase to 1099.38 [PI 95% (959.77, 1553.76)] by 1 May
2020. Further, we have divided the country into severity zones based on the
cumulative cases. According to this analysis, Maharashtra is likely to be the
most affected states with around 9787.24 [PI 95% (6949.81, 13757.06)]
cumulative cases by 1 May 2020. However, Kerala and Karnataka are likely to
shift from the red zone (i.e. highly affected) to the lesser affected region.
On the other hand, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh will move to the red zone. These
results mark the states where lockdown by 3 May 2020, can be loosened.
