  Transit is a crucial mode of transportation, especially in urban areas and
for urban and rural disadvantaged communities. Because extreme temperatures
often pose threats to the elderly, members of the disability community, and
other vulnerable populations, this study seeks to understand the level of
influence that extreme temperatures may have on transit users across different
demographic groups. In this case study for Atlanta, GA, heat stress is
predicted for 2019 transit riders (using transit rider activity survey data)
and for three future climate scenarios, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, into the
year 2100. The HeatPath Analyzer and TransitSim 4.0 models were applied to
predict cumulative heat exposure and trip-level risk for 35,999 trip
equivalents for an average Atlanta area weekday in the summer of 2019. The
analyses show that under 2019 weather conditions, 8.33% of summer trips were
estimated to be conducted under extreme heat. With the projected future climate
conditions, the percentage of trips under extreme heat risk grows steadily. By
2100, 37.1%, 56.1%, and 76.4% are projected to be under extreme heat risk for
scenarios SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. Under current weather
conditions, Atlanta transit riders that own no vehicles and transit riders that
are African American are disproportionately influenced by extreme heat. The
disparity between these two groups and other groups of transit riders becomes
wider as climate change continues to exacerbate. The findings of the study
highlight an urgent need to implement heat mitigation and adaptation strategies
in urban transit networks.
