  Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made
climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of
the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene.
Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a
substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but
rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in
response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to
2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet
disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that
ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized
better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite
gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling
time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level
rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our
conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid
reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in
preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.
