  Active safety systems on vehicles often face problems with false alarms. Most
active safety systems predict the driver's trajectory with the assumption that
the driver is always in a normal emotion, and then infer risks. However, the
driver's trajectory uncertainty increases under abnormal emotions. This paper
proposes a new trajectory prediction model: CPSOR-GCN, which predicts vehicle
trajectories under abnormal emotions. At the physical level, the interaction
features between vehicles are extracted by the physical GCN module. At the
cognitive level, SOR cognitive theory is used as prior knowledge to build a
Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) structure. The conditional probability and state
transition probability of nodes from the calibrated SOR-DBN quantify the causal
relationship between cognitive factors, which is embedded into the cognitive
GCN module to extract the characteristics of the influence mechanism of
emotions on driving behavior. The CARLA-SUMO joint driving simulation platform
was built to develop dangerous pre-crash scenarios. Methods of recreating
traffic scenes were used to naturally induce abnormal emotions. The experiment
collected data from 26 participants to verify the proposed model. Compared with
the model that only considers physical motion features, the prediction accuracy
of the proposed model is increased by 68.70%. Furthermore,considering the
SOR-DBN reduces the prediction error of the trajectory by 15.93%. Compared with
other advanced trajectory prediction models, the results of CPSOR-GCN also have
lower errors. This model can be integrated into active safety systems to better
adapt to the driver's emotions, which could effectively reduce false alarms.
