  China is one of the countries with a high burden of tuberculosis, and
although the number of new cases of tuberculosis has been decreasing year by
year, the number of new infections per year has remained high and the diagnosis
rate of tuberculosis-infected patients has remained low. Based on the analysis
of TB infection data, we develop a model of TB transmission dynamics that
include potentially infected individuals and BCG vaccination, fit the model
parameters to the data on new TB cases, calculate the basic reproduction number
\mathcal{R}_v= 0.4442. A parametric sensitivity analysis of \mathcal{R}_v is
performed, and we obtained the correlation coefficients of BCG vaccination rate
and effectiveness rate with \mathcal{R}_v as -0.810, -0.825. According to the
model, we estimate that there are 614,186 (95% CI [562,631,665,741])
potentially infected TB cases in China, accounting for about 39.5% of the total
number of TB cases. We assess the feasibility of achieving the goals of the WHO
strategy to end tuberculosis in China and find that reducing the number of new
cases by 90 per cent by 2035 is very difficult with the current tuberculosis
control measures. However, with an effective combination of control measures
such as increased detection of potentially infected persons, improved drug
treatment, and reduction of overall exposure to tuberculosis patients, it is
feasible to reach the WHO strategic goal of ending tuberculosis by 2035.
