  African Swine Fever (ASF) is viral infection which causes acute disease in
domestic pigs and wild boar. Although the virus does not cause disease in
humans, the impact it has on the economy, especially through trade and farming,
is substantial. Recent rapid propagation of the (ASF) from East to West of
Europe encouraged us to prepare risk assessment for Poland. The early growth
estimation can be easily done by matching incidence trajectory to the
exponential function, resulting in the approximation of the force of infection.
With these calculations the basic reproduction rate of the epidemic, the
effective outbreaks detection and elimination times could be estimated. In
regression mode, 380 Polish counties (poviats) have been analysed, where 18
(located in Northeast Poland) have been affected (until August 2017) for
spatial propagation (risk assessment for future). Mathematical model has been
applied by taking into account: swine amount significance, disease vectors
(wild boards) significance. We use pseudogravitational models of short and
longrange interactions referring to the socio-migratory behavior of wild boars
and the pork production chain significance. Spatial modeling in a certain range
of parameters proves the existence of a natural protective barrier within
boarders of the Congress Poland. The spread of the disease to the Greater
Poland should result in the accelerated outbreak of ASF production chain. In
the preliminary setup, we perform regression analysis, network outbreak
investigation, early epidemic growth estimation and simulate landscape-based
propagation.
