  Advances in community detection reveal new insights into multiplex and
multilayer networks. Less work, however, investigates the relationship between
these communities and outcomes in social systems. We leverage these advances to
shed light on the relationship between the cooperative mesostructure of the
international system and the onset of interstate conflict. We detect
communities based upon weaker signals of affinity expressed in United Nations
votes and speeches, as well as stronger signals observed across multiple layers
of bilateral cooperation. Communities of diplomatic affinity display an
expected negative relationship with conflict onset. Ties in communities based
upon observed cooperation, however, display no effect under a standard model
specification and a positive relationship with conflict under an alternative
specification. These results align with some extant hypotheses but also point
to a paucity in our understanding of the relationship between community
structure and behavioral outcomes in networks.
