  Taking seriously the interpretation of black hole entropy as the logarithm of
the number of microstates, we argue that thermal gravitons may undergo a phase
transition to a kind of black hole condensate. The phase transition proceeds
via nucleation of black holes at a rate governed by a saddlepoint configuration
whose free energy is of order the inverse temperature in Planck units. Whether
the universe remains in a low entropy state as opposed to the high entropy
black hole condensate depends sensitively on its thermal history. Our results
may clarify an old observation of Penrose regarding the very low entropy state
of the universe.
