  The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has rapidly emerged as a significant threat
to global public health, in particular because -- as is not uncommon with novel
pathogens -- there is no effective pharmaceutical treatment or prophylaxis to
the viral syndrome it causes. In the absence of such specific treatment
modalities, the mainstay of public health response rests on non-pharmaceutical
interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing. This paper contributes to the
understanding of social distancing against SARS-CoV-2 by quantitatively
analysing the statistical dynamics of disease propagation as a differential
game, and estimating the relative costs of distancing versus not distancing,
identifying marginal utility of distancing based on known population
epidemiological data about SARS-CoV-2 and concluding that unless the costs of
distancing vastly exceed the cost of illness per unit time, social distancing
remains a dominant strategy. These findings can assist in solidly anchoring
public health responses based on social distancing within a quantitative
framework attesting to their effectiveness.
