  The effect of warming on severe convective storm potential is commonly
explained in terms of changes in vertically-integrated ("bulk") environmental
parameters, such as CAPE and 0--6 km shear. However, such events are known to
depend on details of the vertical structure of the thermodynamic and kinematic
environment that can change independently of these bulk parameters. This work
examines how warming may affect the complete vertical structure of these
environments for fixed ranges of values of high CAPE and bulk shear, using data
over the central Great Plains from two high-performing climate models.
Temperature profiles warm relatively uniformly with height, with a slight
decrease in free tropospheric lapse rate, and the tropopause shifts upwards at
constant temperature. The boundary layer becomes slightly drier (-2--4\%
relative humidity) while the free troposphere becomes slightly moister
(+2--3\%). Moist static energy (MSE) increases relatively uniformly with height
with slightly larger increase within the boundary layer. Moist static energy
deficit increases slightly above 4 km altitude. Wind shear and storm-relative
helicity increase within the lowest 1.5 km associated with stronger hodograph
curvature. Changes are broadly consistent between the two models despite
differing biases relative to ERA5. The increased low-level shear and SRH
suggests an increased potential for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, while
the slight increase in free tropospheric MSE deficit (enhanced entrainment) and
decrease in boundary layer relative humidity (higher LCL) may oppose these
effects. Evaluation of the net response of severe convective storm outcomes
cannot be ascertained here but could be explored in simulation experiments.
