  While scalable, fully error corrected quantum computing is years or even
decades away, there is considerable interest in noisy intermediate-scale
quantum computing (NISQ). In this paper, we introduce the ArsoNISQ framework
that determines the tolerable error rate of a given quantum algorithm
computation, i.e. quantum circuits, and the success probability of the
computation given a success criterion and a NISQ computer. ArsoNISQ is based on
simulations of quantum circuits subject to errors according to the Pauli error
model. ArsoNISQ was evaluated on a set of quantum algorithms that can incur a
quantum speedup or are otherwise relevant to NISQ computing. Despite optimistic
expectations in recent literature, we did not observe quantum algorithms with
intrinsic robustness, i.e. algorithms that tolerate one error on average, in
this evaluation. The evaluation demonstrated, however, that the quantum circuit
size sets an upper bound for its tolerable error rate and quantified the
difference in tolerate error rates for quantum circuits of similar sizes. Thus,
the framework can assist quantum algorithm developers in improving their
implementation and selecting a suitable NISQ computing platform. Extrapolating
the results into the quantum advantage regime suggests that the error rate of
larger quantum computers must decrease substantially or active quantum error
correction will need to be deployed for most of the evaluated algorithms.
