  The disordered charging of electric vehicles (EVs) in residential areas leads
to a rapid increase of the peak load, causing transformer overload, but the
charging control of EV group can effectively alleviate this phenomenon.
However, existing charging control methods need reliable two-way communication
infrastructure, which brings high operation costs and security risks. To offer
a backup strategy for charging control of EVs after communication facilities
fail, this paper proposes a communication-free charging control scheme to
provide a decentralized on-site charging strategy for EV group. First, an
uncontrollable EV group baseline estimation considering charging behaviors
enabled by Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is proposed to acquire the capacity
margin forecasting for controllable EVs. Next, this paper proposes a
probabilistic distributed control method to assist users formulate the charging
plan autonomously. Here, the charging behavior of EV group is regulated from an
optimization with uncertain boundary conditions to a sampling with uncertain
feasible regions expressed by a probability distribution. Finally, the scheme
is verified via real-world EV charging data from a residential area in
Hangzhou, China. The results show that this method can reduce the probability
of transformer overload caused by out-of-order EV charging after a
communication failure.
