  This article presents a new model for demographic simulation which can be
used to forecast and estimate the number of people in pension funds
(contributors and retirees) as well as workers in a public institution.
Furthermore, the model introduces opportunities to quantify the financial ows
coming from future populations such as salaries, contributions, salary
supplements, employer contribution to savings/pensions, among others. The
implementation of this probabilistic model will be of great value in the
actuarial toolbox, increasing the reliability of the estimations as well as
allowing deeper demographic and financial analysis given the reach of the
model. We introduce the mathematical model, its first moments, and how to
adjust the required probabilities, showing at the end an example where the
model was applied to a public institution with real data.
