  The proliferation of online communities has created exciting opportunities to
study the mechanisms that explain group success. While a growing body of
research investigates community success through a single measure -- typically,
the number of members -- we argue that there are multiple ways of measuring
success. Here, we present a systematic study to understand the relations
between these success definitions and test how well they can be predicted based
on community properties and behaviors from the earliest period of a community's
lifetime. We identify four success measures that are desirable for most
communities: (i) growth in the number of members; (ii) retention of members;
(iii) long term survival of the community; and (iv) volume of activities within
the community. Surprisingly, we find that our measures do not exhibit very high
correlations, suggesting that they capture different types of success.
Additionally, we find that different success measures are predicted by
different attributes of online communities, suggesting that success can be
achieved through different behaviors. Our work sheds light on the basic
understanding of what success represents in online communities and what
predicts it. Our results suggest that success is multi-faceted and cannot be
measured nor predicted by a single measurement. This insight has practical
implications for the creation of new online communities and the design of
platforms that facilitate such communities.
