  We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface
temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First,
one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical
SSTs, and use the fitted regression relation to predict future landfalling
hurricane numbers given predicted SSTs. We call this the direct approach.
Second, one might regress \emph{basin} hurricane numbers onto historical SSTs,
estimate the proportion of basin hurricanes that make landfall, and use the
fitted regression relation and estimated proportion to predict future
landfalling hurricane numbers. We call this the \emph{indirect} approach. Which
of these two methods is likely to work better? We answer this question for two
simple models. The first model is reasonably realistic, but we have to resort
to using simulations to answer the question in the context of this model. The
second model is less realistic, but allows us to derive a general analytical
result.
