  This paper predicting Trump victory has been submitted before the election
and revised after, allowing to add a Foreword and Note Added in Revision to
discuss in details the causes of the failure of the prediction.
  In 2016, Trump was unanimously seen as the loser in the November 8 election.
In contrast, using a model of opinion dynamics I have been developing for a few
decades within the framework of sociophysics, I predicted his victory against
all odds. According to the model, the winning paradoxical martingale of 2016,
has been Trump capability to activate frozen prejudices in many voters by
provoking their real indignation. However, four year later, Trump shocking
outings do not shock anymore, they became devitalized, losing their ability to
generate major emotional reactions. Does this mean that this time around he
will lose the 2020 election against Biden, as nearly all analysts, pundits and
commentators still predict? No, because with frozen prejudices remaining
frozen, the spontaneous prejudices will be activated but this time they will
benefit to both Biden and Trump. The main ones are the fear of the other
candidate policy and the personal stand facing a danger. In addition, Trump
presidency having polarized a large part of American voters into narrow-minded
anti-Trump and narrow-minded pro-Trump, those I denote in my model as
inflexibles, will be driving the dynamics of choices. Both effects, prejudices
and inflexibles can either compete or cooperate making their local combination
within each state, decisive to determine the faith of the state election. As a
result, tiny differences can make the outcome. Based on my rough estimates of
associated proportions of inflexibles and prejudices, the model predicts Trump
victory in the 2020 November election.
