  This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to
forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP
`best' estimates, aggregated to the VIEWS units of analysis. It presents the
format of the contributions, the evaluation metric, and the procedures, and a
brief summary of the contributions. The article serves a function analogous to
a pre-analysis plan: a statement of the forecasting models made publicly
available before the true future prediction window commences. More information
on the challenge, and all data referred to in this document, can be found at
https://viewsforecasting.org/research/prediction-challenge-2023.
