  We show the recovery in consumer spending in the United Kingdom through the
second half of 2020 is unevenly distributed across regions. We utilise Fable
Data: a real-time source of consumption data that is a highly correlated,
leading indicator of Bank of England and Office for National Statistics data.
The UK's recovery is heavily weighted towards the "home counties" around outer
London and the South. We observe a stark contrast between strong online
spending growth while offline spending contracts. The strongest recovery in
spending is seen in online spending in the "commuter belt" areas in outer
London and the surrounding localities and also in areas of high second home
ownership, where working from home (including working from second homes) has
significantly displaced the location of spending. Year-on-year spending growth
in November 2020 in localities facing the UK's new tighter "Tier 3"
restrictions (mostly the midlands and northern areas) was 38.4% lower compared
with areas facing the less restrictive "Tier 2" (mostly London and the South).
These patterns had been further exacerbated during November 2020 when a second
national lockdown was imposed. To prevent such COVID-19-driven regional
inequalities from becoming persistent we propose governments introduce
temporary, regionally-targeted interventions in 2021. The availability of
real-time, regional data enables policymakers to efficiently decide when, where
and how to implement such regional interventions and to be able to rapidly
evaluate their effectiveness to consider whether to expand, modify or remove
them.
