  The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can
collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a
serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The
potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and
managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an
invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly
unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated
that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance
of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as
research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A
core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid
regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect
the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden
change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming
clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing
down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down,
statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores
these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors
that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing
down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an
appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a
positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and
(c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early
warning behaviors and noise.
