  We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy
balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled
with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2
concentration with a stochastic delay differential equation (SDDE), accounting
for various carbon emission and capture scenarios. The resulting coupled system
of SDDEs exhibits a tipping point phenomena: if CO2 concentration exceeds a
critical threshold (around 478ppm), the temperature experiences an abrupt
increase of about six degrees Celsius. We show that the CO2 concentration
exhibits a transient growth which may cause a climate tipping point, even if
the concentration decays asymptotically. We derive a rigorous upper bound for
the CO2 evolution which quantifies its transient and asymptotic growths, and
provides sufficient conditions for evading the climate tipping point. Combining
this upper bound with Monte Carlo simulations of the stochastic climate model,
we investigate the emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios that would
avert the tipping point.
