  This is a completely rewritten version of the talk I gave at the Philosophy
of Cosmology conference in Tenerife, September 2014, which incorporates
elements of my IFT Madrid Anthropics Conference talk. The original was too
technical. The current version uses intuitive notions from black hole physics
to explain the model of inflationary cosmology based on the Holographic Space
Time formalism. The reason that the initial state of the universe had low
entropy is that more generic states have no localized excitations, since in
HST, localized excitations are defined by constraints on the fundamental
variables. The only way to obtain a radiation dominated era, is for each
time-like geodesic to see an almost uniform gas of small black holes as its
horizon expands, such that the holes evaporate into radiation before they
collide and coalesce. Comparing the time slicing that follows causal diamonds
along a trajectory, with the global FRW slicing, one sees that systems outside
the horizon had to undergo inflation, with a number of e-folds fixed by the
present and inflationary cosmological constants, and the black hole number
density on FRW slices just after inflation ends. These parameters also
determine the size of scalar and tensor metric perturbations and the reheat
temperature of the universe. I sketch a class of explicit finite quantum
mechanical models of cosmology, which have these properties. Physicists
interested in the details of those models should consult a recent
paper\cite{holoinflation3}.
