  The study was conducted to develop an appropriate model that could predict
the weekly reported Malaria incidence in the Philippines using the Box-Jenkins
method.The data were retrieved from the Department of Health(DOH) website in
the Philippines. It contains 70 data points of which 60 data points were used
in model building and the remaining 10 data points were used for forecast
evaluation. The R Statistical Software was used to do all the necessary
computations in the study. Box-Cox Transformation and Differencing was done to
make the series stationary. Based on the results of the analysis, ARIMA (2, 1,
0) is the appropriate model for the weekly Malaria incidence in the
Philippines.
