  During the COVID-19 pandemic, a large variance of incidence rates on local
level, e.g. cities and districts, within one country has been observed, while
the same non-pharmaceutical measures have been taken to control the spread of
the virus. This variance in incidence rates triggered the question, if the
spread of incidence rates can be explained only by statistical processes and
the local population statistics or if indeed other factors, e.g. local
information campaigns, have to be considered. Within this paper we study the
expected spread of incidence rates in the German State of Rhineland Palatinate
during the second COVID-19 wave using an agent based simulation and find that
the spread of incidence rates can be solely explained by population statistics
and further statical effects.
