  Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large
scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general
understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of
empirical evidence on the evacuation movement of individuals across multiple
disaster instances. Here we investigate the GPS trajectories of a total of more
than 1 million anonymized mobile phone users whose positions are tracked for a
period of 2 months before and after four of the major earthquakes that occurred
in Japan. Through a cross comparative analysis between the four disaster
instances, we find that in contrast with the assumed complexity of evacuation
decision making mechanisms in crisis situations, the individuals' evacuation
probability is strongly dependent on the seismic intensity that they
experience. In fact, we show that the evacuation probabilities in all
earthquakes collapse into a similar pattern, with a critical threshold at
around seismic intensity 5.5. This indicates that despite the diversity in the
earthquakes profiles and urban characteristics, evacuation behavior is
similarly dependent on seismic intensity. Moreover, we found that probability
density functions of the distances that individuals evacuate are not dependent
on seismic intensities that individuals experience. These insights from
empirical analysis on evacuation from multiple earthquake instances using large
scale mobility data contributes to a deeper understanding of how people react
to earthquakes, and can potentially assist decision makers to simulate and
predict the number of evacuees in urban areas with little computational time
and cost, by using population density information and seismic intensity which
can be observed instantaneously after the shock.
