  There have been several instances in our nation's history in which the
presidential candidate who received the most popular votes did not win the
presidency. Using a principal components analysis of recent presidential
elections, we estimate the likelihood of such an outcome under modern
conditions to be approximately 5%. We also investigate the effect on this
estimate of eliminating from the Electoral College the two electors per state
awarded due to their representation in the Senate, as well as the effect of
increasing them. We conclude with an analysis of the likely consequences of The
National Popular Vote Bill, which would award the presidency to the candidate
with the largest national popular vote total if it took effect.
