  In contrast to the wet gets wetter and dry gets drier paradigm, here, using
observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over
the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10 to 50
percent during 1901 to 2015 and is expected to increase by 50 to 200 percent
under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios, e.g, SSP2 4.5. The GHG forcing
primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM)
rainfall and is a result of a westward expansion of the inter-tropical
convergence zone (ITCZ), facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian
Ocean warm pool. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological
disasters is a must, harvesting the increased rainfall would lead to a
significant increase in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in
the socio-economic condition of people in the region.
