  Data-driven design is a proven success factor that more and more digital
businesses embrace. At the same time, academics and practitioners alike warn
that when virtually everything must be tested and proven with numbers, that can
stifle creativity and innovation. This article argues that Taleb's Black Swan
theory can solve this dilemma. It shows that online experimentation, and
therefore digital design, are fat-tailed phenomena and, hence, prone to Black
Swans. It introduces the notion of Black Swan designs -- "crazy" designs that
make sense only in hindsight -- along with four specific criteria. To ensure
incremental improvements and their potential for innovation, businesses should
apply Taleb's barbell strategy: Invest 85-90% of resources into data-driven
approaches and 10-15% into potential Black Swans.
