  This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin's (1967) macroeconomic
model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution
of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution
(GPD). This is formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing
the overwhelming majority of the population (~99%), with the Pareto power law,
representing the tiny richest part (~1%). In line with Goodwin's original
model, we identify the Gompertzian part with the workers and the Paretian
component with the class of capitalists. Since the GPD parameters are obtained
for each year and the Goodwin macroeconomics is a time evolving model, we use
previously determined, and further extended here, Brazilian GPD parameters, as
well as unemployment data, to study the time evolution of these quantities in
Brazil from 1981 to 2009 by means of the Goodwin dynamics. This is done in the
original Goodwin model and an extension advanced by Desai et al. (2006). As far
as Brazilian data is concerned, our results show partial qualitative and
quantitative agreement with both models in the studied time period, although
the original one provides better data fit. Nevertheless, both models fall short
of a good empirical agreement as they predict single center cycles which were
not found in the data. We discuss the specific points where the Goodwin
dynamics must be improved in order to provide a more realistic representation
of the dynamics of economic systems.
