  Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world.
We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model,
the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported
number of infected cases for the whole of China, 29 provinces in China, and 33
countries and regions that have been or are undergoing major outbreaks. We
dissect the development of the epidemics in China and the impact of the drastic
control measures both at the aggregate level and within each province. We
quantitatively document four phases of the outbreak in China with a detailed
analysis on the heterogeneous situations across provinces. The extreme
containment measures implemented by China were very effective with some
instructive variations across provinces. Borrowing from the experience of
China, we made scenario projections on the development of the outbreak in other
countries. We identified that outbreaks in 14 countries (mostly in western
Europe) have ended, while resurgences of cases have been identified in several
among them. The modeling results clearly show longer after-peak trajectories in
western countries, in contrast to most provinces in China where the after-peak
trajectory is characterized by a much faster decay. We identified three groups
of countries in different level of outbreak progress, and provide informative
implications for the current global pandemic.
