  It is well known that building analytical performance models in practice is
difficult because it requires a considerable degree of proficiency in the
underlying mathematics. In this paper, we propose a machine-learning approach
to derive performance models from data. We focus on queuing networks, and
crucially exploit a deterministic approximation of their average dynamics in
terms of a compact system of ordinary differential equations. We encode these
equations into a recurrent neural network whose weights can be directly related
to model parameters. This allows for an interpretable structure of the neural
network, which can be trained from system measurements to yield a white-box
parameterized model that can be used for prediction purposes such as what-if
analyses and capacity planning. Using synthetic models as well as a real case
study of a load-balancing system, we show the effectiveness of our technique in
yielding models with high predictive power.
