  Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led
to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective
human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much
discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns
of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across
countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has
not been explored. Here, we analyze records of civil unrest of 170 countries
during the period 1919-2008. We demonstrate that the distributions of the
number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear,
spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder
between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks.
The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and
the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.
