  Estimation of football players' skills is one of the key tasks in sports
analytics. This paper introduces multiple extensions to a widely used model,
expected possession value (EPV), to address some key challenges such as
selection problem. First, we assign greater weights to events occurring
immediately prior to the shot rather than those preceding them (decay effect).
Second, our model incorporates possession risk more accurately by considering
the decay effect and effective playing time. Third, we integrate the assessment
of individual player ability to win aerial and ground duels. Using the extended
EPV model, we predict this metric for various football players for the upcoming
season, particularly taking into account the strength of their opponents.
