  COVID-19 is an emergent viral infection which rose in December 2019 in a city
in the Chinese province of Hubei, Wuhan; the viral aetiology of this infection
is now known as COVID-19 virus, which belongs to the Betacoronavirus genus.
This virus produces the syndrome of acute respiratory stress that h as been
witnessed in other coronaviruses, such as that MERS-CoV in Middle East
countries or SARS-CoV which was seen in 2002 and 2003 in China. This virus
mediates its entry through its spike (S) proteins interacting with ACE2
receptors in lung epithelial cells, and may promote an inflammatory response by
means of inflammasome NLRP3 activation and unfolded protein response (these are
possibly consequence of the envelope E protein of COVID-19 virus). Efforts have
been made worldwide to prevent further spread of the disease, but in March 2020
the WHO declared it a pandemic emergency and Mexico started to report its first
cases. In this paper we attempt to summarize the biological features of the
virus and the possible pathophysiological mechanisms of its disease, as well as
a stochastic model characterizing the probability distribution of cases in
Mexico by states and the estimated number of cases in Mexico through a
differential equation model (modified SIR model), thus will we be able to
characterize the disease and its course in Mexico in order to display more
preparedness and promote more logical actions by both the policy makers as well
as the general population.
