  Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence
are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal
organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault
with the one predicted by probabilistic models for seismic occurrence. Thanks
to the optimization of the parameters, by means of a Maximum Likelihood
Estimation, it is possible to identify the statistical model which fits better
the physical one. The results show that the best statistical model must take
into account the non trivial interplay between temporal clustering, related to
aftershock occurrence, and the stress discharge following the occurrence of
high magnitude mainshocks. The two mechanisms contribute in different ways
according to the minimum magnitude considered in the data fitting catalog.
