  Experiments on decision making under uncertainty are known to display a
classical pattern of risk aversion and risk seeking referred to as "fourfold
pattern" (or "reflection effect") , but recent experiments varying the speed
and order of mental processing have brought to light a more nuanced
phenomenology. We model experiments though a Bayesian formalization of the
anchor-and-adjust heuristic observed in empirical studies on cognitive bias.
Using only elementary assumptions on constrained information processing, we are
able to infer three separate effects found in recent observations: (1) the
reported enhancement of the fourfold pattern for quicker decision processes;
(2) the observed decrease of fluctuations for slower decision-making trials;
(3) the reported dependence of the outcome on the order in which options are
processed. The application of Bayesian modeling offers a solution to recent
empirical riddles by bridging two heretofore separate domains of experimental
inquiry on bounded rationality.
