  This paper investigates the likelihood that the CNEOS 2014-01-08 superbolide
(CNEOS14) was caused by an interstellar object. This issue has remained
controversial due to lack of information on the capabilities of the classified
satellite sensors that recorded the fireball. We critically evaluate previous
studies, specifically addressing the reliability of the CNEOS database and the
associated measurement uncertainties. With proper statistical analysis of
existing data and the addition of a relevant new event (the 2024 Iberian
superbolide), we disprove some claims in previous work, such as: a) the
existence of a purported correlation between CNEOS velocity errors and bolide
speed; b) the presence of large velocity errors of 10-15 km/s in the CNEOS
database; and c) the assertion that CNEOS14 is most likely a solar system
object with a hyperbolic trajectory due to measurement errors. We present a
quantitative estimate of the probability that CNEOS14 is interstellar. If its
measurement errors are drawn from the same underlying distribution as the 18
calibrated events, then the probability that CNEOS14 is interstellar is 94.1%.
This probability is lower than the 99.7% confidence (3-sigma) generally
required to claim a scientific discovery. However, it is sufficiently high to
be considered significant and, by far, the most likely explanation for the
currently available empirical evidence.
