  Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be
used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active
intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important
implications for space weather planning. Forecasts for the strength of solar
cycle 25 have varied considerably, from it being very weak, to one of the
strongest cycles in recorded history. In this study, we develop a novel
quantile based superposed epoch analysis that can be updated on a monthly
basis, and which currently predicts that solar cycle 25 will be a very modest
cycle (within the 25th percentile of all numbered cycles), with a
monthly-averaged (13-month average) peak of - 130 (110) likely occurring in
December, 2024. We validate the model by performing retrospective forecasts
(hindcasts) for the previous 24 cycles, finding that it out performs the
baseline (reference) model (the average cycle) 75% of the time.
