  We characterize the network of COVID-19 spread in India and find that the
transmission rate is 0.43, with daily case growth driven by individuals who
contracted the virus abroad. We explore the question of whether this represents
exponentially decaying dynamics or is simply an artefact of India's testing
strategy. Testing has largely been limited to individuals travelling from
high-risk countries and their immediate contacts, meaning that the network
reflects positive identifications from a biased testing sample. Given generally
low levels of testing and an almost complete absence of testing for community
spread, there is significant risk that we may be missing out on the actual
nature of outbreak. India still has an apparently low current caseload, with
possibly a small window of time to act, and should therefore aggressively and
systematically expand random testing for community spread, including for
asymptomatic cases. This will help understand true transmission characteristics
and plan appropriately for the immediate future.
