  Oil prices above $100/barrel values have proven unaffordable for the world
economy, while lower prices have proven unaffordable for unconventional oil
sources, resulting in a frantic price swing since 2007-2008. We identify and
combine for the first time the competing dynamics of oil price, economic growth
and extraction costs in a single model aiming to evaluate the near-term
consequences of these dynamics onto forthcoming oil supply. Policies able to
cope with the consequences of the resulting energy scenario are suggested in
the conclusions.
