  This paper studies the estimation of a large covariance matrix. We introduce
a novel procedure called ChoSelect based on the Cholesky factor of the inverse
covariance. This method uses a dimension reduction strategy by selecting the
pattern of zero of the Cholesky factor. Alternatively, ChoSelect can be
interpreted as a graph estimation procedure for directed Gaussian graphical
models. Our approach is particularly relevant when the variables under study
have a natural ordering (e.g. time series) or more generally when the Cholesky
factor is approximately sparse. ChoSelect achieves non-asymptotic oracle
inequalities with respect to the Kullback-Leibler entropy. Moreover, it
satisfies various adaptive properties from a minimax point of view. We also
introduce and study a two-stage procedure that combines ChoSelect with the
Lasso. This last method enables the practitioner to choose his own trade-off
between statistical efficiency and computational complexity. Moreover, it is
consistent under weaker assumptions than the Lasso. The practical performances
of the different procedures are assessed on numerical examples.
