  Independent sociological polls are forbidden in Belarus. Online polls
performed without sound scientific rigour do not yield representative results.
Yet, both inside and outside Belarus it is of great importance to obtain
precise estimates of the ratings of all candidates. These ratings could
function as reliable proxies for the election's outcomes. We conduct an
independent poll based on the combination of the data collected via Viber and
on the streets of Belarus. The Viber and the street data samples consist of
almost 45000 and 1150 unique observations respectively. Bayesian regressions
with poststratification were build to estimate ratings of the candidates and
rates of early voting turnout for the population as a whole and within various
focus subgroups. We show that both the officially announced results of the
election and early voting rates are highly improbable. With a probability of at
least 95%, Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya's rating lies between 75% and 80%, whereas
Aliaksandr Lukashenka's rating lies between 13% and 18% and early voting rate
predicted by the method ranges from 9% to 13% of those who took part in the
election. These results contradict the officially announced outcomes, which are
10.12%, 80.11%, and 49.54% respectively and lie far outside even the 99.9%
credible intervals predicted by our model. The only marginal groups of people
where the upper bounds of the 99.9% credible intervals of the rating of
Lukashenka are above 50% are people older than 60 and uneducated people. For
all other marginal subgroups, including rural residents, even the upper bounds
of 99.9% credible intervals for Lukashenka are far below 50%. The same is true
for the population as a whole. Thus, with a probability of at least 99.9%
Lukashenka could not have had enough electoral support to win the 2020
presidential election in Belarus.
