  In December 2023 the Florida State Seminoles became the first Power 5 school
to have an undefeated season and miss selection for the College Football
Playoff. In order to assess this decision, we employed an Elo ratings model to
rank the teams and found that the selection committee's decision was justified
and that Florida State were not one of the four best teams in college football
in that season (ranking only 11th!). We extended this analysis to all other
years of the CFP and found that the top four teams by Elo ratings differ
greatly from the four teams selected in almost every year of the CFP's
existence. Furthermore, we found that there have been more egregious
non-selections including when Alabama was ranked first by Elo ratings in 2022
and were not selected. The analysis suggests that the current criteria are too
subjective and a ratings model should be implemented to provide transparency
for the sport, its teams, and its fans.
