  Launch behaviors are a key determinant of the orbital environment. Physical
and economic forces such as fragmentations and changing launch costs, or
policies like post-mission disposal (PMD) compliance requirements, will alter
the relative attractiveness of different orbits and lead operators to adjust
their launch behaviors. However, integrating models of adaptive launch behavior
with models of the debris environment remains an open challenge. We present a
statistical framework for integrating theoretically-grounded models of launch
behavior with evolutionary models of the low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment. We
implement this framework using data on satellite launches, the orbital
environment, launch vehicle prices, sectoral revenues, and government budgets
over 2007-2020. The data are combined with a multi-shell and multi-species
Particle-in-a-Box (PIB) model of the debris environment and a two-stage
budgeting model of commercial, civil government, and defense decisions to
allocate new launches across orbital shells. We demonstrate the framework's
capabilities in three counterfactual scenarios: unexpected fragmentation events
in highly-used regions, a sharp decrease in the cost of accessing lower parts
of LEO, and increasing compliance with 25-year PMD guidelines. Substitution
across orbits based on their evolving characteristics and the behavior of other
operators induces notable changes in the debris environment relative to models
without behavioral channels.
