  Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual
distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we
show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a
marked potentially existential risk for humanity.
  Such a macro property should invite the use of Extreme Value Theory (EVT)
rather than naive interpolations and expected averages for risk management
purposes. An implication is that potential tail risk overrides conclusions on
decisions derived from compartmental epidemiological models and similar
approaches.
