  We propose a diffusion process to describe the global dynamic evolution of
credit operations at a national level given observed operations at a
subnational level in a sovereign country. Empirical analysis with a unique
dataset from Brazilian federate constituents supports the conclusions. Despite
the heterogeneity observed in credit operations at a subnational level, the
aggregated dynamics at a national level were accurately described with the
proposed model. Results may guide management of public finances, particularly
debt manager authorities in charge of reaching surplus targets.
