  This paper introduces a method for linking technological improvement rates
(i.e. Moore's Law) and technology adoption curves (i.e. S-Curves). There has
been considerable research surrounding Moore's Law and the generalized versions
applied to the time dependence of performance for other technologies. The prior
work has culminated with methodology for quantitative estimation of
technological improvement rates for nearly any technology. This paper examines
the implications of such regular time dependence for performance upon the
timing of key events in the technological adoption process. We propose a simple
crossover point in performance which is based upon the technological
improvement rates and current level differences for target and replacement
technologies. The timing for the cross-over is hypothesized as corresponding to
the first 'knee'? in the technology adoption "S-curve" and signals when the
market for a given technology will start to be rewarding for innovators. This
is also when potential entrants are likely to intensely experiment with
product-market fit and when the competition to achieve a dominant design
begins. This conceptual framework is then back-tested by examining two
technological changes brought about by the internet, namely music and video
transmission. The uncertainty analysis around the cases highlight opportunities
for organizations to reduce future technological uncertainty. Overall, the
results from the case studies support the reliability and utility of the
conceptual framework in strategic business decision-making with the caveat that
while technical uncertainty is reduced, it is not eliminated.
