  Applying the Ashok-Denef-Douglas estimation method to elliptic Calabi-Yau
fourfolds suggests that a single elliptic fourfold ${\cal M}_{\rm max}$ gives
rise to ${\cal O} (10^{272,000})$ F-theory flux vacua, and that the sum total
of the numbers of flux vacua from all other F-theory geometries is suppressed
by a relative factor of ${\cal O} (10^{-3000})$. The fourfold ${\cal M}_{\rm
max}$ arises from a generic elliptic fibration over a specific toric threefold
base $B_{\rm max}$, and gives a geometrically non-Higgsable gauge group of
$E_8^9 \times F_4^8 \times (G_2 \times SU(2))^{16}$, of which we expect some
factors to be broken by G-flux to smaller groups. It is not possible to tune an
$SU(5)$ GUT group on any further divisors in ${\cal M}_{\rm max}$, or even an
$SU(2)$ or $SU(3)$, so the standard model gauge group appears to arise in this
context only from a broken $E_8$ factor. The results of this paper can either
be interpreted as providing a framework for predicting how the standard model
arises most naturally in F-theory and the types of dark matter to be found in a
typical F-theory compactification, or as a challenge to string theorists to
explain why other choices of vacua are not exponentially unlikely compared to
F-theory compactifications on ${\cal M}_{\rm max}$.
