  I present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on conflict. Using
granular conflict and weather data covering the entire continent of Africa from
1997 to 2023, I find that exposure to El Ni\~no events during the crop-growing
season has a negative differential effect on political violence against
civilians in croplands during the early postharvest season. A 1{\deg}C warming
of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean relative to its
long-run mean, a typical proxy for a moderate-strength El Ni\~no event, results
in at least a three percent reduction in political violence with civilian
targeting. This main finding, backed by a series of robustness checks, supports
the idea that agriculture is the key channel and rapacity is the key motive
connecting climatic shocks and political violence. Reassuringly, the magnitude
of the estimated effect nearly doubles when I use subsets of data that are
better suited to unveiling the proposed mechanism, and the effect only
manifests during and after the harvest, but not prior to it, when I examine
seasonal conflict dynamics in an event-study setting. This study advances the
knowledge of the relationship between climate and conflict. And because El
Ni\~no events can be predicted several months in advance, these findings can
contribute to creating a platform for early warnings of political violence,
specifically in predominantly agrarian societies in Africa.
