  This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic
paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing
consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model
was used for this purpose. The results show that the parameter estimates of the
model were below what is established by the anthropogenic current and
governmental organs, such as the IPCC (UN), considering a 100-year scenario,
which suggests a period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling. Thus,
we hope with this study to contribute to the discussion by adding a statistical
element of paleoclimate in counterpoint to the current scientific consensus and
place the debate in a long-term historical dimension, in line with other
existing research on the topic.
