  Background. Conventional phylogenetic clustering approaches rely on arbitrary
cutpoints applied a posteriori to phylogenetic estimates. Although in practice,
Bayesian and bootstrap-based clustering tend to lead to similar estimates, they
often produce conflicting measures of confidence in clusters. The current study
proposes a new Bayesian phylogenetic clustering algorithm, which we refer to as
DM-PhyClus, that identifies sets of sequences resulting from quick transmission
chains, thus yielding easily-interpretable clusters, without using any ad hoc
distance or confidence requirement. Results. Simulations reveal that DM-PhyClus
can outperform conventional clustering methods, as well as the Gap procedure, a
pure distance-based algorithm, in terms of mean cluster recovery. We apply
DM-PhyClus to a sample of real HIV-1 sequences, producing a set of clusters
whose inference is in line with the conclusions of a previous thorough
analysis. Conclusions. DM-PhyClus, by eliminating the need for cutpoints and
producing sensible inference for cluster configurations, can facilitate
transmission cluster detection. Future efforts to reduce incidence of
infectious diseases, like HIV-1, will need reliable estimates of transmission
clusters. It follows that algorithms like DM-PhyClus could serve to better
inform public health strategies.
