  An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several
countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are
underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact
on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of
these interventions may inform public health efforts. We use existing data from
Liberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and use
this model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacy
of several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improved
infection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceutical
intervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients. Model forecasts
until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having
reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing,
improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial
impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient
to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical
intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted
trajectory of the epidemic. Near-term, practical interventions to address the
ongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but they
will not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of the
epidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary to
address the outbreak.
