  At the time of writing, Louisiana has the third highest COVID-19 infection
per capita in the United States. The state government issued a stay-at-home
order effective March 23rd. We analyze the projected spread of COVID-19 in
Louisiana without including the effects of the stay-at-home order. We predict
that a large fraction of the state population would be infected without the
mitigation efforts, and would certainly overwhelm the capacity of Louisiana
health care system. We further predict the outcomes with different degrees of
reduction in the infection rate. More than 70% of reduction is required to cap
the number of infected to under one million.
