  The pairwise maximum entropy model, also known as the Ising model, has been
widely used to analyze the collective activity of neurons. However, controversy
persists in the literature about seemingly inconsistent findings, whose
significance is unclear due to lack of reliable error estimates. We therefore
develop a method for accurately estimating parameter uncertainty based on
random walks in parameter space using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo after
the convergence of the main optimization algorithm. We apply our method to the
spiking patterns of excitatory and inhibitory neurons recorded with
multielectrode arrays in the human temporal cortex during the wake-sleep cycle.
Our analysis shows that the Ising model captures neuronal collective behavior
much better than the independent model during wakefulness, light sleep, and
deep sleep when both excitatory (E) and inhibitory (I) neurons are modeled;
ignoring the inhibitory effects of I-neurons dramatically overestimates
synchrony among E-neurons. Furthermore, information-theoretic measures reveal
that the Ising model explains about 80%-95% of the correlations, depending on
sleep state and neuron type. Thermodynamic measures show signatures of
criticality, although we take this with a grain of salt as it may be merely a
reflection of long-range neural correlations.
