  A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators
performed by the authors demonstrates (1) that the main countries of East
Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian Trap yet;
(2) that this countries are not likely to follow the "North African path" and
to achieve this escape before they achieve serious successes in their fertility
transition; (3) that East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does
not follow the "Bangladeshi path" and does not achieve really substantial
fertility declines in the foreseeable future, which would imply the
introduction of compulsory universal secondary education, serious family
planning programs of the Rwandan type, and the rise of legal age of marriage
with parental consent. Such measures should of course be accompanied by the
substantial increases in the agricultural labor productivity and the decline of
the percentage of population employed in agriculture.
