  We consider a global (location independent) model of pandemic growth which
generalizes the SIR model to accommodate important features of the COVID-19
pandemic, notably the implementation of pandemic reduction measures. This
"SHIR" model is applied to COVID-19 data, and shows promise as a simple,
tractable formalism with few parameters that can be used to model pandemic case
numbers. As an example we show that the average time dependence of new COVID-19
cases per day from 15 Central and Western European countries is in good
agreement with the analytic, parameter-free prediction of the model
