  A planet's emission spectrum contains information about atmospheric
composition and structure. We compare the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)
of blackbody fits and idealized spectral retrieval fits for the 44 planets with
published eclipse measurements in multiple thermal wavebands, mostly obtained
with the Spitzer Space Telescope. The evidence for spectral features depends on
eclipse depth uncertainties. Spitzer has proven capable of eclipse precisions
better than 1E-4 when multiple eclipses are analyzed simultaneously, but this
feat has only been performed four times. It is harder to self-calibrate
photometry when a single occultation is reduced and analyzed in isolation; we
find that such measurements have not passed the test of repeatability.
Single-eclipse measurements either have an uncertainty floor of 5E-4, or their
uncertainties have been underestimated by a factor of 3. If one adopts these
empirical uncertainties for single-eclipse measurements, then the evidence for
molecular features all but disappears: blackbodies have better BIC than
spectral retrieval for all planets, save HD 189733b, and the few planets poorly
fit by blackbodies are also poorly fit by self-consistent radiative transfer
models. This suggests that the features in extant broadband emission spectra
are due to astrophysical and instrumental noise rather than molecular bands.
Claims of stratospheric inversions, disequilibrium chemistry, and high C/O
ratios based solely on photometry are premature. We recommend that observers be
cautious of error estimates from self-calibration of small data sets, and that
modelers compare the evidence for spectral models to that of simpler models
such as blackbodies.
