  We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production
of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear
extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and
(ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries.
Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining
oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production,
as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict
remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrels for
Norway and 98 +/- 10 million barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and
66% above the predictions using the standard methodology.
