  It is predicted that quantum computers will dramatically outperform their
conventional counterparts. However, large-scale universal quantum computers are
yet to be built. Boson sampling is a rudimentary quantum algorithm tailored to
the platform of photons in linear optics, which has sparked interest as a rapid
way to demonstrate this quantum supremacy. Photon statistics are governed by
intractable matrix functions known as permanents, which suggests that sampling
from the distribution obtained by injecting photons into a linear-optical
network could be solved more quickly by a photonic experiment than by a
classical computer. The contrast between the apparently awesome challenge faced
by any classical sampling algorithm and the apparently near-term experimental
resources required for a large boson sampling experiment has raised
expectations that quantum supremacy by boson sampling is on the horizon. Here
we present classical boson sampling algorithms and theoretical analyses of
prospects for scaling boson sampling experiments, showing that near-term
quantum supremacy via boson sampling is unlikely. While the largest boson
sampling experiments reported so far are with 5 photons, our classical
algorithm, based on Metropolised independence sampling (MIS), allowed the boson
sampling problem to be solved for 30 photons with standard computing hardware.
We argue that the impact of experimental photon losses means that demonstrating
quantum supremacy by boson sampling would require a step change in technology.
