  A new model, which uses the frequency of individuals' annual home run totals,
is employed to predict future home run totals and records in Major League
Baseball. Complete home run frequency data from 1903--2005 is analyzed,
resulting in annual exponential distributions whose changes can be a used as a
measure of progression in the sport and serve as a basis against which
record-setting performances can be compared. We show that there is an 80%
chance that Barry Bonds' current 73 home run record will be broken in the next
10 years, despite the longevity of previous records held by baseball legends
Babe Ruth and Roger Marris.
