  Sodium-ion batteries have garnered significant attention as a potentially
low-cost alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which have experienced supply
shortages and pricing volatility of key minerals. Here we assess their
techno-economic competitiveness against incumbent lithium-ion batteries using a
modeling framework incorporating componential learning curves constrained by
minerals prices and engineering design floors. We compare projected sodium-ion
and lithium-ion price trends across over 6,000 scenarios while varying Na-ion
technology development roadmaps, supply chain scenarios, market penetration,
and learning rates. Assuming substantial progress can be made along technology
roadmaps via targeted R&D, we forecast many sodium-ion pathways to be price
competitive against low-cost lithium-ion variants in the early 2030s.
Additionally, we show timelines are highly sensitive to movements in critical
minerals supply chains--namely that of lithium, graphite, and nickel. Modeled
outcomes suggest increasing sodium-ion energy densities to decrease materials
intensity to be among the most impactful ways to improve competitiveness.
