  Connectivity patterns in intermittently-connected mobile networks (ICMN) can
be modeled as edge-Markovian dynamic graphs. We propose a new model for
epidemic propagation on such graphs and calculate a closed-form expression that
links the best achievable delivery ratio to common ICMN parameters such as
message size, maximum tolerated delay, and link lifetime. These theoretical
results are compared to those obtained by replaying a real-life contact trace.
