  It is hypothesized that price charts can be empirically decomposed into two
components as random and non random. The non random component, which can be
treated as approximately regular behavior of the prices (trend) in an epoch, is
a geometric line. Thus, the random component fluctuates around the non random
component with various amplitudes. Moreover, the shape of a trend in an epoch
may be different in another epoch. It is further hypothesized that statistical
evidence can be found for various relations between several types of trends and
the direction of the next movements of the prices. These hypotheses are tested
on the historical data of the DJIA (Dow) and confirmed. Moreover, it is
statistically showed that a number of trends that have occurred in the near
past course of the Dow can be utilized to presage the near future of the index.
As a result, upcoming of a recession in the DJIA, which may portend a worldwide
economic crisis, is predicted.
