  The effective allocation of cross-border trading capacities is one of the
central challenges for the implementation of a pan-European internal energy
market. In contrast to traditional power flow-ignorant methods like net
transfer capacities (NTC), flow-based market coupling (FBMC) has been shown to
increase price convergence between market areas, while improving congestion
management effectiveness. However, explicitly analysing FBMC for a future power
system with a very high share of intermittent renewable generation is often
overlooked in the current literature. This paper provides a comprehensive
summary on the technical specification of the FBMC process and FBMC modeling
methods. It discusses implications of policy considerations and explicitly
discusses the impact of high-shares of intermittent generation on FBMC
performance. Further, we propose probabilistic security margins compatible with
the current FBMC implementation to better account for renewable uncertainty in
FBMC modeling. We conduct numerical experiments on the IEEE 118 bus test system
to showcase the proposed model formulations and our data and implementation is
published open source.
