  We present a Bayesian analysis of the epistemology of analogue experiments
with particular reference to Hawking radiation. First, we prove that such
experiments can be confirmatory in Bayesian terms based upon appeal to
'universality arguments'. Second, we provide a formal model for the scaling
behaviour of the confirmation measure for multiple distinct realisations of the
analogue system and isolate a generic saturation feature. Finally, we
demonstrate that different potential analogue realisations could provide
different levels of confirmation. Our results provide a basis both to formalise
the epistemic value of analogue experiments that have been conducted and to
advise scientists as to the respective epistemic value of future analogue
experiments.
