  We examine the effect of civil war in Syria on economic growth, human
development and institutional quality. Building on the synthetic control
method, we estimate the missing counterfactual scenario in the hypothetical
absence of the armed conflict that led to unprecedented humanitarian crisis and
population displacement in modern history. By matching Syrian growth and
development trajectories with the characteristics of the donor pool of 66
countries with no armed internal conflict in the period 1996-2021, we estimate
a series of growth and development gaps attributed to civil war. Syrian civil
war appears to have had a temporary negative effect on the trajectory of
economic growth that almost disappeared before the onset of COVID19 pandemic.
By contrast, the civil war led to unprecedented losses in human development,
rising infant mortality and rampantly deteriorating institutional quality. Down
to the present day, each year of the conflict led to 5,700 additional
under-five child deaths with permanently derailed negative effect on longevity.
The civil war led to unprecedent and permanent deterioration in institutional
quality indicated by pervasive weakening of the rule of law and deleterious
impacts on government effectiveness, civil liberties and widespread escalation
of corruption. The estimated effects survive a battery of placebo checks.
