  There is literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned
by the transnational tobacco companies (TTC) to measure the illicit tobacco
trade. Furthermore, there are studies that indicate that the Empty Pack Surveys
(EPS) ordered by the TTCs are oversized. The novelty of this study is that, in
addition to detecting the anomalies analyzed in the EPSs, there are provinces
in which cigarette sales are higher than reasonable values, something that the
TTCs ignore. This study analyzed simultaneously, firstly, if the EPSs
established in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were fulfilled. Second,
anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values are
measured. To achieve the objective of the paper, provincial data on cigarette
sales, price and GDP per capita are used. These data are modeled with machine
learning techniques widely used to detect anomalies in other areas. The results
reveal that the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed
(as detected by the EPSs) present a clear geographical pattern. Furthermore,
the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous
literature, are slightly oversized. Finally, there are regions bordering other
countries or with a high tourist influence in which the observed sales are
higher than the expected values.
