  It is often claimed that overdensities of (or even individual bright)
submillimetre-selected galaxies (SMGs) trace the assembly of the most-massive
dark matter structures in the Universe. We test this claim by performing a
counts-in-cells analysis of mock SMG catalogues derived from the Bolshoi
cosmological simulation to investigate how well SMG associations trace the
underlying dark matter structure. We find that SMGs exhibit a relatively
complex bias: some regions of high SMG overdensity are underdense in terms of
dark matter mass, and some regions of high dark matter overdensity contain no
SMGs. Because of their rarity, Poisson noise causes scatter in the SMG
overdensity at fixed dark matter overdensity. Consequently, rich associations
of less-luminous, more-abundant galaxies (i.e. Lyman-break galaxy analogues)
trace the highest dark matter overdensities much better than SMGs. Even on
average, SMG associations are relatively poor tracers of the most significant
dark matter overdensities because of 'downsizing': at z < ~2.5, the
most-massive galaxies that reside in the highest dark matter overdensities have
already had their star formation quenched and are thus no longer SMGs. At a
given redshift, of the 10 per cent most-massive overdensities, only ~25 per
cent contain at least one SMG, and less than a few per cent contain more than
one SMG.
