  Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude
increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this
issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we
find evidence of positive magnitude dependence for recessions, while for
expansions we are not able to reject the null of magnitude independence. This
last result is likely due to a structural change in the mechanism guiding
expansions before and after the second World War. In particular, upturns show
negative magnitude dependence in the post-World War II sub-sample, meaning that
in this period expansions become less likely to end as their magnitude
increases.
