  The drug overdose crisis in the United States continues to intensify.
Fatalities have increased five-fold since 1999 reaching a record high of
108,000 deaths in 2021. The epidemic has unfolded through distinct waves of
different drug types, uniquely impacting various age, gender, race and ethnic
groups in specific geographical areas. One major challenge in designing
effective interventions is the forecasting of age-specific overdose patterns at
the local level so that prevention and preparedness can be effectively
delivered. We develop a forecasting method that assimilates observational data
obtained from the CDC WONDER database with an age-structured model of addiction
and overdose mortality. We apply our method nationwide and to three select
areas: Los Angeles County, Cook County and the five boroughs of New York City,
providing forecasts of drug-overdose mortality and estimates of relevant
epidemiological quantities, such as mortality and age-specific addiction rates.
