  The election forecasting 'industry' is a growing one, both in the volume of
scholars producing forecasts and methodological diversity. In recent years a
new approach has emerged that relies on social media and particularly Twitter
data to predict election outcomes. While some studies have shown the method to
hold a surprising degree of accuracy there has been criticism over the lack of
consistency and clarity in the methods used, along with inevitable problems of
population bias. In this paper we set out a 'baseline' model for using Twitter
as an election forecasting tool that we then apply to the UK 2015 General
Election. The paper builds on existing literature by extending the use of
Twitter as a forecasting tool to the UK context and identifying its
limitations, particularly with regard to its application in a multi-party
environment with geographic concentration of power for minor parties.
