  The consumers' willingness to pay plays an important role in economic theory
and in setting policy. For a market, this function can often be estimated from
observed behavior -- preferences are revealed. However, economists would like
to measure consumers' willingness to pay for some goods where this can only be
measured through stated valuation. Confirmed convergence of valuations based on
stated preferences as compared to valuations based on revealed preferences is
rare, and it is important to establish circumstances under which one can expect
such convergence. By building a simple probabilistic model for the consumers'
likelihood of travel, we provide an approach that should make comparing stated
and revealed preferences easier in cases where the preference is tied to travel
or some other behavior whose cost can be measured. We implemented this approach
in a pilot study and found an estimate of willingness to pay for visiting an
environmentally enhanced recreational site based on actual travel in good
agreement with an estimate based on a survey using stated preferences. To use
the probabilistic model we used population statistics to adjust for the
relevant duration and thus compare stated and revealed responses.
