  We developed a simulation game to study the effectiveness of decision-makers
in overcoming two complexities in building cybersecurity capabilities:
potential delays in capability development; and uncertainties in predicting
cyber incidents. Analyzing 1,479 simulation runs, we compared the performances
of a group of experienced professionals with those of an inexperienced control
group. Experienced subjects did not understand the mechanisms of delays any
better than inexperienced subjects; however, experienced subjects were better
able to learn the need for proactive decision-making through an iterative
process. Both groups exhibited similar errors when dealing with the uncertainty
of cyber incidents. Our findings highlight the importance of training for
decision-makers with a focus on systems thinking skills, and lay the groundwork
for future research on uncovering mental biases about the complexities of
cybersecurity.
