  As the prices of magnetic storage continue to decrease, the cost of replacing
failed disks becomes increasingly dominated by the cost of the service call
itself. We propose to eliminate these calls by building disk arrays that
contain enough spare disks to operate without any human intervention during
their whole lifetime. To evaluate the feasibility of this approach, we have
simulated the behavior of two-dimensional disk arrays with n parity disks and
n(n-1)/2 data disks under realistic failure and repair assumptions. Our
conclusion is that having n(n+1)/2 spare disks is more than enough to achieve a
99.999 percent probability of not losing data over four years. We observe that
the same objectives cannot be reached with RAID level 6 organizations and would
require RAID stripes that could tolerate triple disk failures.
