  We study the confinement phase transition in $SU(2)$ Yang-Mills theory, based
on a statistical ensemble model of correlated instanton-dyons. We show for the
first time that such a model provides a quantitative description, in light of
the lattice data, for the temperature dependence of the order parameter. We
characterize the short-range interaction which plays a crucial role for the
properties of such ensemble. The chromo-magnetic charge density as well as the
spatial correlations is found to be consistent with known lattice and
phenomenological information.
