  The Trump phenomenon is argued to depart from current populist rise in
Europe. According to a model of opinion dynamics from sociophysics the
machinery of Trump's amazing success obeys well-defined counter-intuitive
rules. Therefore, his success was in principle predictable from the start. The
model uses local majority rule arguments and obeys a threshold dynamics. The
associated tipping points are found to depend on the leading collective
beliefs, cognitive biases and prejudices of the social group which undertakes
the public debate. And here comes the sesame of the Trump campaign, which
develops along two successive steps. During a first moment, Trump's statement
produces a majority of voters against him. But at the same time, according to
the model the shocking character of the statement modifies the prejudice
balance. In case the prejudice is present even being frozen among voters, the
tipping point is lowered at Trump's benefit. Nevertheless, although the tipping
point has been lowered by the activation of frozen prejudices it is
instrumental to preserve enough support from openly prejudiced people to be
above the threshold. Then, as infuriated voters launch intense debate,
occurrence of ties will drive progressively hostile people to shift their
voting intention without needing to endorse the statement which has infuriated
them. The on going debate does drive towards a majority for Trump. The possible
Trump victory at November Presidential election is discussed. In particular,
the model shows that to eventually win the Presidential election, Trump must
not modify his past shocking attitude but to appeal to a different spectrum of
frozen prejudices, which are common to both Democrats and Republicans.
