  Potential advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) could have profound
implications for how countries research and develop weapons systems, and how
militaries deploy those systems on the battlefield. The idea of AI-enabled
military systems has motivated some activists to call for restrictions or bans
on some weapon systems, while others have argued that AI may be too diffuse to
control. This paper argues that while a ban on all military applications of AI
is likely infeasible, there may be specific cases where arms control is
possible. Throughout history, the international community has attempted to ban
or regulate weapons or military systems for a variety of reasons. This paper
analyzes both successes and failures and offers several criteria that seem to
influence why arms control works in some cases and not others. We argue that
success or failure depends on the desirability (i.e., a weapon's military value
versus its perceived horribleness) and feasibility (i.e., sociopolitical
factors that influence its success) of arms control. Based on these criteria,
and the historical record of past attempts at arms control, we analyze the
potential for AI arms control in the future and offer recommendations for what
policymakers can do today.
