  Forking-based development has made it easier and straightforward for
developers to contribute to open-source software (OSS). Developers can fork an
existing project and add changes in their local version without interrupting
the development process in the main project. Despite the efficiency of OSS,
more than 80% of the projects are not sustainable. Identifying the elements
related to OSS success can enlighten developers regarding the sustainability of
a project. In our study, we explore whether or not the inefficiencies which
arise due to forking-based development like redundant development, fragmented
communities, lack of modularity, etc. have any relation to the outcome of a
project in terms of sustainability. We formulate eight metrics to quantify
attributes for projects in the ASFI dataset. To find the correlation between
the metrics and the success of a project, we built a logistic regression model
to metrics with significant p-values and performed backward stepwise regression
analysis, using the stepAIC function in R to cross-check our findings. The
findings show that modularity, centralized management index, and hard forks are
consequential for the success of a project. Developers can use the outcomes of
our research to plan and structure their projects to increase the probability
of their success.
