  Population decline is projected to become widespread in Europe, with the
continental population set to reverse its longstanding trajectory of growth
within the next five years. This represents unfamiliar demographic territory.
Despite this, literature on decline remains sparse and our understanding
porous. Particular epistemological deficiencies stem from a lack of both
cross-national and temporal analyses of population decline. This study seeks to
address these gapsthrough the novel application of sequence and cluster
analysis techniques to examine variations in population decline trajectories
since 2000 in 696 sub-national areas across 33 European territories. The
methodology allows for a holistic understanding of decline trajectories
capturing differences in the ordering, timing, magnitude and spatial structure
of population decline. We identify a typology of population decline
distinguishing seven distinct pathways to depopulation and chart their
geographies. Results revealed differentiated pathways of depopulation in
continental sub-regions, with consistent and rapid declines in the east,
persistent but moderate declines in central Europe, accelerating declines in
the south and decelerating population declines in the west. Results also
revealed differentiated patterns of depopulation across the rural-urban
continuum, with urban and populous areas experiencing deceleration in
population decline, while population decline accelerates or stabilises in rural
areas. Small and mid-sized areas displayed heterogeneous depopulation
trajectories, highlighting the importance of local contextual factors in
influencing trajectories of population decline.
