  If global photovoltaics (PV) deployment grows rapidly, the required input
materials need to be supplied at an increasing rate. In this paper, we quantify
the effect of PV deployment levels on the scale of metals production. For
example, we find that if cadmium telluride {copper indium gallium diselenide}
PV accounts for more than 3% {10%} of electricity generation by 2030, the
required growth rates for the production of indium and tellurium would exceed
historically-observed production growth rates for a large set of metals. In
contrast, even if crystalline silicon PV supplies all electricity in 2030, the
required silicon production growth rate would fall within the historical range.
More generally, this paper highlights possible constraints to the rate of
scaling up metals production for some PV technologies, and outlines an approach
to assessing projected metals growth requirements against an ensemble of past
growth rates from across the metals production sector. The framework developed
in this paper may be useful for evaluating the scalability of a wide range of
materials and devices, to inform technology development in the laboratory, as
well as public and private research investment.
