  The authors apply three methods of prospective modelling to high resolution
georeferenced land cover data in a Mediterranean mountain area: GIS approach,
non linear parametric model and neuronal network. Land cover prediction to the
latest known date is used to validate the models. In the frame of
spatial-temporal dynamics in open systems results are encouraging and
comparable. Correct prediction scores are about 73 %. The results analysis
focuses on geographic location, land cover categories and parametric distance
to reality of the residues. Crossing the three models show the high degree of
convergence and a relative similitude of the results obtained by the two
statistic approaches compared to the GIS supervised model. Steps under work are
the application of the models to other test areas and the identification of
respective advantages to develop an integrated model.
