  China's pledge to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is an ambitious goal
and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to limit warming
to +1.5C warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. But the
pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear, including the
role of negative emissions technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis
Model to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct
air capture (DAC) in particular, could contribute to China's meeting this
target. Our results show that negative emissions could play a large role,
offsetting on the order of 3 GtCO2 per year from difficult-to-mitigate sectors
such as freight transportation and heavy industry. This includes up to a 1.6
GtCO2 per year contribution from DAC, constituting up to 60% of total projected
negative emissions in China. But DAC, like bioenergy with carbon capture and
storage and afforestation, has not yet been demonstrated at anywhere
approaching the scales required to meaningfully contribute to climate
mitigation. Deploying NETs at these scales will have widespread impacts on
financial systems and natural resources such as water, land, and energy in
China.
