  This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stage
model for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. This
methodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate that
it can be extended to other applications of risk assessment with great success.
Future extensions should cover predictions in larger time frames and consider
lagged periods. This methodology can be further improved if more information
about the economic cycles is integrated in the forecasting of default.
