  Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically
motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of
commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high
threshold. However, in practice a suitable threshold is unknown and must be
determined for each analysis. While there are many threshold selection methods
for univariate extremes, there are relatively few that can be applied in the
multivariate setting. In addition, there are only a few Bayesian-based methods,
which are naturally attractive in the modelling of extremes due to data
scarcity. The use of Bayesian measures of surprise to determine suitable
thresholds for extreme value models is proposed. Such measures quantify the
level of support for the proposed extremal model and threshold, without the
need to specify any model alternatives. This approach is easily implemented for
both univariate and multivariate extremes.
