  Despite broad interest in self-organizing systems, there are few
quantitative, experimentally-applicable criteria for self-organization. The
existing criteria all give counter-intuitive results for important cases. In
this Letter, we propose a new criterion, namely an internally-generated
increase in the statistical complexity, the amount of information required for
optimal prediction of the system's dynamics. We precisely define this
complexity for spatially-extended dynamical systems, using the probabilistic
ideas of mutual information and minimal sufficient statistics. This leads to a
general method for predicting such systems, and a simple algorithm for
estimating statistical complexity. The results of applying this algorithm to a
class of models of excitable media (cyclic cellular automata) strongly support
our proposal.
