  This paper evaluates the impact of the pandemic and enforcement at the US and
Mexican borders on the emigration of Guatemalans during 2017-2020. During this
period, the number of crossings from Guatemala fell by 10%, according to the
Survey of Migration to the Southern Border of Mexico. Yet, there was a rise of
nearly 30% in the number of emigration crossings of male adults travelling with
their children. This new trend was partly driven by the recent reduction in the
number of children deported from the US. For a one-point reduction in the
number of children deported from the US to Guatemalan municipalities, there was
an increase of nearly 14 in the number of crossings made by adult males leaving
from Guatemala for Mexico; and nearly 0.5 additional crossings made by male
adults travelling with their children. However, the surge of emigrants
travelling with their children was also driven by the acute economic shock that
Guatemala experienced during the pandemic. During this period, air pollution in
the analysed Guatemalan municipalities fell by 4%, night light per capita fell
by 15%, and homicide rates fell by 40%. Unlike in previous years, emigrants are
fleeing poverty rather than violence. Our findings suggest that a reduction in
violence alone will not be sufficient to reduce emigration flows from Central
America, but that economic recovery is needed.
