  We use a dataset covering nearly the entire target population based on
passively collected data from smartphones to measure the impact of the first
COVID-19 wave on the gig economy in Poland. In particular, we focus on
transportation (Uber, Bolt) and delivery (Wolt, Takeaway, Glover, DeliGoo)
apps, which make it possible to distinguish between the demand and supply part
of this market. Based on Bayesian structural time-series models, we estimate
the causal impact of the first COVID-19 wave on the number of active drivers
and couriers. We show a significant relative increase for Wolt and Glover (15%
and 24%) and a slight relative decrease for Uber and Bolt (-3% and -7%) in
comparison to a counterfactual control. The change for Uber and Bolt can be
partially explained by the prospect of a new law (the so-called Uber Lex),
which was already announced in 2019 and is intended to regulate the work of
platform drivers.
