  We update previous frequentist analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1 parameter
spaces to include the public results of searches for supersymmetric signals
using ~1 /fb of LHC data recorded by ATLAS and CMS and ~0.3/fb of data recorded
by LHCb in addition to electroweak precision and B-physics observables. We also
include the constraints imposed by the cosmological dark matter density and the
XENON100 search for spin-independent dark matter scattering. The LHC data set
includes ATLAS and CMS searches for jets + missing ET events and for the
heavier MSSM Higgs bosons, and the upper limits on B_s to mu^+ mu^- from LHCb
and CMS. The absences of jets + missing ET signals in the LHC data favour
heavier mass spectra than in our previous analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1,
which may be reconciled with (g-2)_mu if tan beta ~ 40, a possibility that is
however under pressure from heavy Higgs searches and the upper limits on B_s to
mu^+ mu^-. As a result, the p-value for the CMSSM fit is reduced to ~ 15 (38)%,
and that for the NUHM1 to ~ 16 (38)%, to be compared with ~ 9 (49)% for the
Standard Model limit of the CMSSM for the same set of observables (dropping
(g-2)_mu), ignoring the dark matter relic density in both cases. We discuss the
sensitivities of the fits to the (g-2)_mu and b to s gamma constraints,
contrasting fits with and without the (g-2)_mu constraint, and combining the
theoretical and experimental errors for b to s gamma linearly or in quadrature.
We present predictions for m_gluino, B_s to mu^+ mu^-, M_h and M_A, and update
predictions for spin-independent dark matter scattering, stressing again the
importance of taking into account the uncertainty in the pi-nucleon sigma term,
Sigma_{pi N}. Finally, we present predictions based on our fits for the likely
thresholds for sparticle pair production in e^+e^- collisions in the CMSSM and
NUHM1.
