  In this study we present a statistical analysis of 53 fast Earth-directed
halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO instrument during the period Jan.
2009-Sep. 2015, and we use this CME sample to test the capabilities of a
Sun-to-Earth prediction scheme for CME geoeffectiveness. First, we investigate
the CME association with other solar activity features by means of
multi-instrument observations of the solar magnetic and plasma properties.
Second, using coronagraphic images to derive the CME kinematical properties at
0.1 AU, we propagate the events to 1 AU by means of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model.
Simulation results at Earth are compared with in-situ observations at L1. By
applying the pressure balance condition at the magnetopause and a solar wind-Kp
index coupling function, we estimate the expected magnetospheric compression
and geomagnetic activity level, and compare them with global data records. The
analysis indicates that 82% of the CMEs arrived at Earth in the next 4 days.
Almost the totality of them compressed the magnetopause below geosynchronous
orbits and triggered a geomagnetic storm. Complex sunspot-rich active regions
associated with energetic flares result the most favourable configurations from
which geoeffective CMEs originate. The analysis of related SEP events shows
that 74% of the CMEs associated with major SEPs were geoeffective. Moreover,
the SEP production is enhanced in the case of fast and interacting CMEs. In
this work we present a first attempt at applying a Sun-to-Earth
geoeffectiveness prediction scheme - based on 3D simulations and solar
wind-geomagnetic activity coupling functions - to a statistical set of
potentially geoeffective halo CMEs. The results of the prediction scheme are in
good agreement with geomagnetic activity data records, although further studies
performing a fine-tuning of such scheme are needed.
