  We present precision Monte Carlo data and analytic arguments for an
asymmetric exclusion process, involving two species of particles driven in
opposite directions on a $2 \times L$ lattice. We propose a scenario which
resolves a stark discrepancy between earlier simulation data, suggesting the
existence of an ordered phase, and an analytic conjecture according to which
the system should revert to a disordered state in the thermodynamic limit. By
analyzing the finite size effects in detail, we argue that the presence of a
single, seemingly macroscopic, cluster is an intermediate stage of a complex
nucleation process: In smaller systems, this cluster is destabilized while
larger systems allow the formation of multiple clusters. Both limits lead to
exponential cluster size distributions which are, however, controlled by very
different length scales.
