  Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political
actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political
campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different
campaigns according to their chances of winning. Leading candidates, for
example, do not behave the same as fringe candidates in their elections, and
vice versa. We, however, know little about this difference in social media
political campaign strategies according to their odds in elections. We tackle
this problem by analyzing candidates' tweets in terms of users, topics, and
sentiment of replies. Our study finds that, as their chances of winning
increase, candidates narrow the targets they communicate with, from people in
general to the electrical districts and specific persons (verified accounts or
accounts with many followers). Our study brings new insights into the
candidates' campaign strategies through the analysis based on the novel
perspective of the candidate's electoral situation.
