At the present time, published a huge number of newspaper articles, film shows and television programs about global climate change. Many NGOs began to worry about the close protection of the planet from greenhouse catastrophe character, politicians also have adopted this issue. Unfortunately, to get acquainted with the results of scientific research, not everyone can. On the prospects of the continuation of life on the planet and further actions of mankind, talking reporter "Business Review" and Alex Karnaukhov, who is a senior fellow of the Institute of Biophysics, Academy of Sciences of cells. In the course of the conversation were revealed interesting hypotheses about the global warming, greenhouse effect and the estimated date of doomsday.
It's no secret that the global warming fraught with irreversible consequences. Assuming the worst case scenario, we can note, the dried sea and turning the planet into a desert. Temperature will rise up to + 150 degrees at the equator and up to 100 degrees Celsius at the poles. The absolute absence of animals, plants and people, rubble, broken cars, and submarines in the sand. Constant dust storms and gale-force winds. The picture is truly horrifying, and all this can happen if mankind does not take urgent measures, after three hundred years.
Despite the fact that 300 years – the term is relatively large, you should not rely on children, and to help them now, without waiting for when climate change will go into irreversible discharge. After three hundred years there will be stage Thermal greenhouse catastrophe, as a result of which life on Earth will be impossible.
Similarly, to determine the timing of this moment is impossible, it is likely that he has passed, but is likely to mankind has just a few decades left.
As we know at this point, the average global temperature has increased slightly more than one degree. Could this lead to a process that fundamentally change the climate? Completely, as the temperature rises are not just so, and in connection with the content in the atmosphere of a high concentration of carbon dioxide. Human activity has led to the fact that it has increased over the last few hundred years by 35 percent, but this would be enough to ensure that the average global temperature has increased by 10 ° C. As a result, the process can be activated by release of large masses of ocean carbon dioxide, which would entail a further increase in temperature on Earth.
In the recent studies highlighted the fact that if carbon dioxide concentration will be doubled, the average temperature of the planet will increase by 4 degrees. However, these estimates are based on simple climate models, taking into account only the change in CO2 concentration. In fact, the appearance of the greenhouse effect mainly depends on water vapor, and, the higher the temperature, the more it contains water vapor. Logically, the increase in mean temperature involves an increase in vapor content in the atmosphere. And the increase in their concentration leads to the fact that increased greenhouse effect further increases sredneplanetarnaya temperature. Researchers and scientists have called such phenomena to processes with positive feedback connection, the presence of a planet's climate system, which greatly increases the sensitivity to fluctuations in average temperature of CO2. Global warming triggered by carbon dioxide and water vapor, significantly strengthens it. Detailed studies provide an opportunity to put forward Alexei Karnaukhov personal theory that the limiting value of the temperature increase with an increase in CO2 will be equal to twice the 25 degrees Celsius.
Familiar with the theory of A. Karnaukhova detail, it becomes clear why he came to that conclusion. For the first time, more precisely, solving the problem about two-greenhouse effect, he achieved one of the most nontrivial results of theoretical work. Experimentally, for example, the data obtained during drilling of the Antarctic ice sheet, these findings have been confirmed. The bottom line is that by studying the Antarctic ice, we can accurately track the annual layers, which are the result of the seasonal increase in snow cover characteristics. The analysis of isotopes of these layers made it possible to trace the historical moments in the global climate in the period 400 000 years. Concerning the data can be noted that the era of warming and cooling all the time followed each other 4 times. At the same time, the change in atmosphere is 30 percent CO2 was accompanied by changes in temperature at 10-12 ° C. However, at the time was Ice Age, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide was 30 percent lower than in the period of industrial expansion. And now she is 35 percent higher, according to the temperature is also higher than in the era doindustrializatsii.
Converting to double the CO2 concentration obtained 25 ° C, which are a consequence of the above rabiatsionno – adiabatic model of the greenhouse property, which is not 4 ° C, posited one-component simple models. By the way, this model can also be applied to the greenhouse effect other planets, such as Venus, which has a surface temperature of 500C.
Throughout the information comes to global warming, but little significant change was observed. Maybe all this is true? Let's look at how the kettle begins to boil. Boiling process occurs gradually, over time, which occurs for the thermal inertia of the liquid. Glaciers and oceans act as enormous heat buffer, which is why the temperature rise on Earth, at the moment, not too noticeable.
Since the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of land in sight is closer to the end of this century, emerges the possibility of increasing the global temperature of 25 ° C. Our planet has a thermal inertia, which contributes to some reduction in estimates of actual increase in the average temperature on Earth. It is estimated that voiced by senior researcher A. Karnuhovym, it will be 5-8 degrees, depending on the extent to which serious and effective measures will be to monitor the pollution emissions of CO2. Such data are almost no different from the assumptions of other scientists.
Studying the forecast Karnaukhova A., the question arises, based on what they put forward the hypothesis is correct with respect to 300 year period prepared for the Earth, after which the temperature of the planet will rise up to +100 ° C and, in fact, and there will be End of the World. To date, it is impossible to compare the results of his research, because simple climate models that do not take into account the role of thermal inertia and water vapor can not give a correct prediction. Creating a model Earth's climate, according to the account of all factors, a much longer period to anyone yet, apart from him, it was not possible.
Attempts to create such a model is made more than once. Professor Leonard Bentgsonom, which is quite famous in certain circles, an expert in climate modeling, until recently occupied the position of Director of German Institute of Metrology. Max Planck, the fall of 2002 at a conference in Graz, Austria, presented research showing that the planet's climate system in the near future may become unstable. At the same time acquire temperature readings tend to increase rapidly.
It may seem strange to the fact that Western scholars, fluent in and get the best out in his work computer technology, so hopelessly behind. This explains the features and benefits fetishization of computer equipment in carrying out research of a theoretical nature, which leads to a significant problem in modern science in general. Tradition of critical calculations in real time, almost lost. Remember, after all, no Landau, neither Einstein nor other prominent scientists have used in their work computing, but this is not how much will prevent the development of fundamental discoveries. Since they are able to find solutions to difficult problems through the knowledge of the problem.
Being the only one who can simulate the climatic situation of the planet for the next three hundred years, A. Karnaukhov does not preclude the presence in its calculations of some errors. Available method of detection is a public discussion of the results of research in the press, at conferences, scientific seminars. Since the results obtained in the course of the research, to put it mildly, shocking, all feasible steps to their public discussion. After 1994, when he first coined the term "greenhouse catastrophe" for various seminars was announced more than 50 reports and published nearly thirty research papers. Internet is also a means by which discussion of the subject does not subside.
There were no significant inaccuracies, which could expose these findings challenge, to date not been found. On the contrary, the model explains all available properties that exist to date, observations of climatic changes the planet.
Supporters hypothesis about the greenhouse effect are the famous scientists around the world. Stephen Hawking, English Astrophysicist, the fall of 2000, speaking at the Edinburgh Royal Society lecture, informed the others that the greenhouse effect, after a few hundred years, it can turn Earth into a planet like Venus, life which is impossible, because of what humanity has no chance to move into the fourth millennium.
If the assumptions are correct Karnaukhova, does that mean that society should completely abandon the use of cars, oil and coal? Most likely, the situation is not so bad, because it is unlikely that an absolute rejection of the production and utilization of mineral resources provide a complete disaster prevention plan of the greenhouse. The fact that it is necessary not only to stop polluting the atmosphere of disastrous man-made CO2 emissions, but also figure out a way by which it will be possible purification of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere already contained in it.
Hoping for plants that are in the process of photosynthesis from the atmosphere to absorb CO2, but experts estimate the processing ten times more carbon dioxide than is a result of human activities, can be faced with a dilemma. Although the rate of photosynthesis is very high, be aware that its owner is plant biomass, which serves as food for many living organisms. And as evidenced by the nature, everything that can be eaten, ever eat, and return carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Even if humankind ceases completely pollute the air of CO2, it would not be able to fully stop the greenhouse disaster. The present day concentration of carbon dioxide over time, lead to the fact that the average temperature on Earth will rise by ten degrees. This will lead to the fact that many of the planet will become unfit for living, glowing problems of socio-economic nature, there will be a large-scale migration of people to more suitable areas that receive food insecurity. A significant fact in this situation, it is keeping balance in the political system of the world, and no assumption of a global nuclear war.
The picture of the approaching apocalypse is truly frightening. If humanity in the next ten years is absolutely refuses to burn oil, gas and coal – that this event will happen no sooner than 200 years. And if the way people will be like now – 100 years is the maximum time allotted to mankind. However, there is a chance that will happen a sharp decrease in inertia of the climate system, as a result of violations of the three-dimensional circulation of the oceans. That's when the temperature increase on Earth at 10 ° C is reached after 40 or 50 years.
The conclusion that humanity has a total of 40 years, during which life will be stable. Although, the collapse of the global economic and political system may be a little early, because what happens in a significant cooling of northern Europe, Russia and America because of the disappearance of the warm Gulf Stream, which will lead to global warming. In connection with this, comes, may not be too long, but it is a real ice age in the Northern Hemisphere. Become impossible to farm in Holland, Germany, the Baltic States, Britain, central Russia, the United States. The population of most cities will require immediate evacuation. To begin national energy and food crisis. The territory of the developed countries would be considered a disaster area, and waiting for the collapse of the global system of economic relations will be absolutely real.
The biggest challenge is learning climate and ocean currents description. Therefore, to establish the exact string of alleged events are not in a position no one. Although it is possible to say that the Gulf Stream will stop the rapid and takes no more than three years. Can also occur next, changing currents in the Atlantic will happen later, then lowering the temperature to 15 ° C will be perceived as good.
Various psychics, astrologers, religious sects, and many other prophets, has repeatedly predicted the "end of the world" which has not yet occurred. That is why people are suspicious of such forecasts. However, climatologists have confirmed the fact that almost all of their forecasts for natural hazards and disasters, came true. Unfortunately, their opinion is ignored, although forecasts are constantly published in journals of a scientific nature, and in the media. Because of this, the economic damage at this time amounted to more than $ 100 billion.
Lena flooding that occurred in 2001, is the first of climatologists predicted disasters, the probability of which was associated with the beginning of change of currents in the Atlantic, and which has repeatedly warned since 1998.
In connection with the foregoing it becomes apparent that mankind would be difficult to survive in such conditions. There are currently limiting the increase in the amount of emissions into the atmosphere, which have been specified in the Kyoto Protocol, are not the standard of perfection, but the state over the past ten years can not agree even on such an issue. Hence the question arises, how much will it cost the salvation of humanity and who decide to take this step?
According to scientists, the technical side of averting a catastrophe because of the greenhouse effect, to solve it is quite possible. And there's no need to turn into a completely primitive man, refuse vehicles and comfortable apartments and houses. We will talk about the widespread use of renewable energy technologies, using energy sources that could be renewed. A development of technological tools to cleanse the atmosphere of carbon dioxide helps create jobs, which relate primarily to the high-tech industry. A slight increase in energy prices will provide an opportunity to develop and improve sectors such as education, arts, and medicine. There will be a significant development of the service sector. The world around us shine with new colors will be cleaner, thanks to this, life will become brighter.