The National Hurricane Center is watching a well-defined tropical wave about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some of the computer models indicate this disturbance may develop into a tropical cyclone as it heads west-northwestward over the next several days.
The historical data set from the National Hurricane Center shows that 366 tropical storms have formed in the month of August since 1851. But before the age of routine satellite coverage that started in the mid-1960s, some tropical storms were obviously missed. Since the satellite era began, we have averaged 3.1 tropical storms of which 1.7 were hurricanes during the month of August.
We typically start seeing a lot more activity originating over the deep tropical Atlantic this time of year, as seen here. Most of these tropical storm formations are from tropical waves.
It is way too early for anyone to say whether the current disturbance will eventually threaten South Florida or not. But it is a reminder that we are about to enter the beginning of what is considered to be the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season that typically extends from mid-August to the middle or end of October.
Let’s all be prepared.