UPDATE: At 11 a.m., Pacific Tropical Depression One-E was upgraded by the National Hurricane Center to Tropical Storm Agatha.
Photo: Pacific Tropical Depression One-E approaches the Central American coast on Saturday morning (credit: NOAA/ National Hurricane Center). For more, see part two of post, below.
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What would happen if a hurricane or tropical storm went through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico?
The National Hurricane Center answered some questions on this topic in a newly-published fact sheet. Bottom line: the oil would have little effect on the development of the storm.
And it could spread more oil inland. However, it could also disperse the oil over a wider area in the ocean, which may actually help the biodegradation process.
Movement of the oil would depend on the track of the storm. If it moved to the spill’s west, it could drive more oil to the coast. If it moved to the spill’s east, it would push the oil south, away from the coast but perhaps toward the Loop Current and eventually into the Gulfstream.
A very thick oil slick would hinder evaporation of water, which supplies energy for a tropical storm. But as the NHC notes, the oil in the Gulf is too patchy to have any real impact.
And there is this potentially damaging effect, according to the NHC report: “Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.”
There would be no oil in the rain of a hurricane or tropical storm, the NHC says. Water vapor is drawn from a much larger area than the spill, and the rain is produced in the clouds swirling within the storm.
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The Eastern Pacific season’s first tropical depression formed today off the coast of Central America. It was moving east-northeast at 5 mph and was expected to soak portions of Mexico, El Salvador and Guatemala, which were under tropical storm warnings.
“The main impact from this system should be extremely heavy rainfall,” the National Hurricane Center said. “These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and as far inland as Honduras.”
The NHC expects the storm to move inland and dissipate by Tuesday. Some forecasters say it’s possible that energy from the remnants could form a new storm in the Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico.
If Tropical Depression One-E reaches tropical storm strength, it would be named Agatha. Anything that generates in the Atlantic basin on the other side would earn the first Atlantic name of the season, Alex.
That’s what happened in 2008, when Pacific Tropical Storm Alma battered Central America on May 29 and 30. The remnants moved across Honduras into the northwestern Caribbean. It combined with another surface low southeast of Belize to become Atlantic Tropical Storm Arthur on May 31 – one day before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. (The Pacific season begins May 15).