New Zealand, according to government sources, has already experienced increased temperatures (0.9°C over the past 100 years), retreating glaciers and snow mass, and sea level rises (16 cm over the last century).
Climate change will bring more frequent extreme weather events such as droughts and floods; increase erosion, necessitating coastal protection; and alter rainfall and river flow patterns forcing land use to be changed.
New Zealand is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and will have a delegation at the Copenhagen climate change conference in December.
Important issues for New Zealand is the level of commitment made to cutting greenhouse gas emissions, new funding for overseas aid to help in climate change mitigation and the investment in development of clean technology.
CWS is supporting a 40% cut in 1990 emissions by 2020. Climate scientists say this target must be met to avoid more dangerous climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has advised that stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at less than 450ppm CO2-e is required to limit global average temperature increases to about 2°C.
Some groups in New Zealand have argued this is too costly for the economy. CWS believes the cost of not stopping climate change will be far higher and that climate change is not just an economic issue.
Extreme weather events will be expensive for New Zealand. As responsible international citizens, we should also be concerned about the devastating impacts overseas. There is likely to be significant pressure for resettlement from the Pacific and even Asia, shortages of food, increases in humanitarian disasters and increased conflict over water and other threatened natural resources.
Climate change is a global challenge and needs a global response. New Zealand cannot hide from its consequences or ignore its role in contributing to the problem. It is time to work for a strong and just global response.
Under the Kyoto Protocol 1997, New Zealand committed to limiting its emissions to 1990 levels. The agreement set varying limits for each of 37 developed countries for cuts in emissions to 5.2% below 1990 levels measured globally.
New Zealand’s gross emissions have increased significantly since 1990. In 2006 we produced 26 per cent more than in 1990. The largest percentage increases have been in the electricity (91%), transport (70%), and agricultural (12%) sectors. Net emissions rose sharply in 2005 due to increased rates of deforestation but have since stabilised (Ministry for the Environment).
Forest planting has helped counter emissions, which will enable New Zealand to meet its Kyoto obligations. However, many of these forests are due for harvest in the 2020s, when it is estimated forest growth and harvest will be in balance. This will make it impossible for New Zealand to meet targets without reducing actual emissions.
New Zealand has a different emissions profile from most other developed countries. A large proportion of emissions are methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture. Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are lower because of the dominance of hydro-generated electricity.
The government sees a dilemma in balancing economic factors with damage to our good international reputation by failing to deliver and the need for environmental protection. (see Ministry of Environment New Zealand's 2020 Emissions Target)
It argues the pros and cons as:
Reasons for a modest NZ 2020 target
Reasons for an ambitious NZ 2020 target
Big industry argues for a modest target on the basis a 40% cut could make the average person $3,200 worse of a year at 2020, while the price of gas, electricity and petrol would rise significantly.
CWS is supporting a 40% cut because this is the minimum needed to avert devastating climate change. The world is too interconnected to believe we will not be adversely affected by continuing global warming. Climate change is threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people already.
The richer countries who have used more than their share of the world’s resources need to pay back their carbon debt to the planet and to the world’s poorest people.
Living in the Pacific, New Zealand has a major responsibility to our Pacific neighbours and must do what it can to stop the production of greenhouse gases.
CWS also supports increasing new development assistance to the Pacific to help mitigate against the effects of climate change and enable Pacific nations to develop using clean technology. At the same time it needs to offer new homes to those people seeking refuge from rising sea levels.