The development of autonomous cars is strongly
linked to the need and the drive to enhance
safety in vehicles. It turns out that people
are pretty bad drivers. In 2013, over 1 million
deaths occurred on the roads worldwide. This
is the 8th leading cause of death globally,
and the number 1 cause of young people. Global
losses due to road traffic injuries are estimated
at over half a trillion dollars. Human error
accounts for around 90% of all vehicle crashes.
The reasons?
- poor lookout- excessive speed - inattention
- wrong evasive action
- internal distraction
In 2012, British people spent almost 300 hours
rotating steering wheels. They only worked
around 1600 hours, so it’s a big part of
their time. London is the second most congested
city in Europe, its citizens waste 81 hours
a year in traffic. It’s been estimated that
up to 15 times more people could fit on today’s
roads. Autonomous vehicles will therefore
help decongest today’s cities, and also
save people’s time, as autonomous cars are
able to safely drive much closer to each other.
So, what are autonomous cars?
US Department of Transport allows for 5 different
levels of autonomy:
- no autonomy;
- the car is assisting the driver by using
safety systems such as ESP and ABS.
- two or more safety systems working together,
such as Adaptive Cruise Control combined with
lane centering.
– The vehicle fully controls itself, only
needing occasional input from the driver;
– Complete and full autonomy. The vehicle
can drive itself under all circumstances and
all weather conditions, it only needs to know
the destination. Example - latest version
of the Google car, which has no steering wheel.
Let’s go to the beginning though. People
have dreamed of cars driving themselves for
a long time. In 1939, Norman Bel produced
‘To new horizons’, a video and book for
GM which dedicates a whole chapter to ‘Eliminating
the human factor in driving’. During the
following decades, the Japanese developed
rear end collision avoidance systems, using
cameras to detect obstacles. The Germans also
pushed for automation, resulting in safety
systems such as ABS and ESP. In 2009, Google
started to develop Chauffeur, and by now it
has driven over 700.000 miles, wholly autonomously.
It can detect hundreds of types of objects
simultaneously, and it has not caused any
accidents yet. Google is currently researching
city driving, having already built a level
4 capable prototype, an plans to have 100
built soon. They plan to license their system
for the roads by 2018. Today, car manufacturers
are flocking to announce their progress in
self-driving cars and predict the sale of
vehicles capable of level 3 autonomy by 2020.
As the most important aspect about an autonomous
vehicle will be its computer system. If connected
to the internet, it could be vulnerable to
attacks. Privacy and freedom of movement could
also be under threat if governments, police,
or terrorists gain access not only to the
last journey, but can predict future journeys.
Bugs in the software could lead to accidents.
Collision avoidance systems could be abused
by human driven vehicles, and pedestrians
discouraged to pay attention to the road.
Long commutes could be encouraged.
On the other side, autonomous cars will provide
personal transportation for millions of disabled
or elderly people. Connected vehicles means
police could stop them remotely if a criminal
is inside.
Before autonomous cars become available though,
a few barriers remain: highly detailed road
maps are required, the public needs to accept
the concept, and a number of laws need to
change.
