- Elon Musk seems to have a phobia
about artificial intelligence.
But, I'm not sure if it's warranted.
Neither are Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerberg.
Hi, I'm Ben Sullins with Teslanomics
and today we're gonna
take a look at why Elon
is so concerned about this
and why others are less so.
To understand why Elon is so afraid,
we need to first understand
what artificial intelligence, or AI, is.
In computers, artificial
intelligence is the field of work
that involves creating
programs that can mimic
human intelligence such as playing chess
or solving algebra problems.
While today we think of
those as obvious examples
that a computer can
perform exceedingly well,
when the field of AI research started
at Dartmouth College in 1956,
these were astonishing feats.
Some of the founders at
the time were so excited
about the field of AI
that they proclaimed,
"Machines will be capable within 20 years
"of doing any work a man can do."
So, remember, this was the
1960s when the field of AI
really started to ramp up.
Not exactly the era you
think of when you think about
the advancements and all of
technology and computers.
In fact, computers around
then were barely a thing
and mostly focused on
processing complex equations,
which actually led to
some pretty amazing things
such as putting a man on the moon.
Think about that for a second.
In the era where a five
megabyte hard drive,
barely enough to hold a couple of photos
by today's standards, had to be hauled
onto a freight container and
lifted using heavy machinery,
we were able to combine what humans know
and the calculation power
that a computer gives us
to figure out exactly what
we need to to put a person
on the moon and return
them back to Earth safely.
So, with as primitive as things were,
remember five megabytes
had to be hauled on a truck
and on an airplane with heavy machinery,
and here I have 64 gigabytes,
a full 13,000 times more
storage, about the size
of a fingernail.
I mean, it's unfathomable
how far we've come
since those days.
And it only was about 60 years ago.
So was that the first AI system?
Was that really something that
was artificially intelligent
that mimicked human behavior?
By today's standards, many would say no.
But, if you zoom out
a bit, you could argue
that the computers used in the '60s
to land a man on the moon,
were merely imitating what humans could do
if given the time.
They just were able to do it
faster and more accurately.
So, if artificial intelligence
is merely creating
machines and programs and things
that mimic human intelligence,
what's the big worry,
why are we so afraid of this?
Well, we've come a long
way since the 1960s
and along the way we had many
advancements in technology,
namely, the internet.
Now, the internet is when
things started to get
a little bit more science fiction-like
and visions of the world
where machines had taken over
started to become, or at
least seem, a bit more real.
Because now with the internet,
computers and machines
could be controlled remotely,
giving us that global sense
of there could be
something that takes over
and turns the machines against us here
now that they're all connected together
in this giant network.
As well, data could be transferred,
which led to some major innovations
in the field of artificial intelligence
with the practice of machine learning.
With machine learning,
the idea was that we could
teach the computer how to learn on its own
given just a little bit of instruction.
This has led to many
advancements that are fueling
the AI hype cycle that we're in today.
No longer just an advanced calculator,
the AI systems we know of
today are doing complex things
like beating people at Jeopardy,
translating hundreds
of languages instantly,
and, soon they'll be able to drive us home
after a night out with friends.
So far what we're talking
about here are systems
that are known as artificial
narrow intelligence
and some may call it weak AI.
Artificial narrow intelligence
is when the system
is focused on a specific
task and really incapable
of doing anything else.
All of the examples we've seen so far
fall into this category.
Although IBM's Watson is pushing
the boundary a little bit
with its ability to understand
a multitude of topics.
So far, so good, right?
We have these incredibly smart computers
that can do really cool
things, but there's no big fear
of them taking over and
becoming self-aware, is there?
Well, maybe.
And, it has to do with
the next level of AI
called artificial general
intelligence or strong AI.
This is where AI systems
will be able to reason,
plan, understand complex
ideas, and find solutions
to problems quickly by
learning from experience.
Okay, this is where things
start to get a little scary.
If you've seen the
Sci-Fi movie Ex Machina,
you'll remember Eva, a human-like android
that is generally intelligent.
She's able to trick her guests
into helping her escape.
If we achieve this level of
AI, things could get bad quick
as they did in the movie for her friend.
So, if that wasn't enough,
there is yet another level
called artificial super intelligence.
Leading AI thinker, Nick Bostrom,
defines super intelligence as
"An intellect that is much smarter
"than the best human brains
in practically every field,
"including scientific
creativity, general wisdom,
"and social skills."
This is where Elon and
others like Ray Kurzweil
and Stephen Hawking are really worried.
If, rather when, we as
humans create something
this intelligent, we will no
longer be able to control it
and it could easily run
wild, killing us all.
And, once we lose control
of a system like this,
we won't even know how to stop it.
The intelligence it has will
be so far beyond our own
that we won't even be able
to figure out how it works.
Even if we assume it's
good versus being evil,
the needs it has will
differ greatly from our own,
likely resulting in a conflict
that we just can't win.
So, yeah, it could happen
and we probably should
be a little concerned.
However, the rate we're
going, it's still a ways out.
I mean, Siri can't even
play songs from Spotify yet.
In the meantime, the battle between Elon,
Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg,
and our other tech leaders
will wage on, hopefully
bringing some sense
to the discussion, just
not the super intelligent,
self-aware type of sense, not yet.
So, thanks for watching.
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Each week we break down
the data and economics
and some of the more
technical aspects of companies
like Tesla that are really
just changing our world.
And remember, when you free the
data, your mind will follow.
Thanks for watching.
