Democrats compete for chance at Republican-leaning Indiana congressional district

Correction: A previous version of this story misstated the year in which Rep. Trey Hollingsworth defeated Democrat Shelli Yoder.

They've been to bars in Bloomington, auditoriums in New Albany and museums in Corydon.

They've heard from union laborers, college students and parents who lost children to the region's ongoing opioid crisis.

But after months of campaigning, the race for the Republican and Democratic nominations in Indiana's 9th Congressional District has finally reached its end.

The Tuesday primary is largely expected to determine which candiate — lawyers Dan Canon, of New Albany, and Liz Watson, of Bloomington — will represent the Democrats against incumbent Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth during his first shot at re-election in November.

But both candidates — as well as longshots Democrat Rob Chatlos of Bloomington, and Republican James Dean Alspach, of Morgantown — are facing an uphill battle in unseating Hollingsworth in the district that has been held by Republicans for all but four years since 2005. Hollingsworth defeated Democrat Shelli Yoder by 14 percentage points in 2016.

Political analysts think Hollingsworth will fare well in the primary. But things are not so clear across the aisle.

"I give Liz Watson a small advantage in the primary. But if it's a small turnout, anything can happen on that front," said Brian Howey, publisher of Howey Politics of Indiana. He added that Hollingsworth is part of what he's dubbed a "green wave" in the state — people with money getting elected.

Watson might also be the beneficiary of a large expected turnout of women voters, who are energized by both the #MeToo movement and President Donald Trump's disparaging remarks toward women, according to Cliff Staten, a political science and international studies professor at Indiana University Southeast.

He said he too is expecting a close race but doesn't know where things are currently because he hasn't seen any polling yet. He said small voter turnout would change things, but he doesn't expect that to be the case.

"They both kind of represent the progressive wing. I think Liz may have a slight edge because of the expected female turnout," Staten said, adding that he's heard "that Liz is playing better overall in the 9th District, while Dan is playing better in New Albany."

Regardless, he thinks the Democratic winner is going to have a tough time winning in November.

"It's been drawn to make it a safe Republican seat," Staten said. "Whoever wins it — either Liz or Dan — both of them are going to have a tough time."

Same goal, different approaches

The state's 9th District stretches across 13 counties in south-central and southeastern Indiana. It includes the Indiana side of the Louisville metropolitan area as well as Greenwood and Bloomington.

Both Canon and Watson have spent the last half-year crisscrossing the district to campaign for votes. But they've taken different approaches to how they've garnered support.

They're both confident in their chances heading into Tuesday — with Watson going as far as to say "I think that I'm running against Hollingsworth."

Canon contended that he's feeling "really good about our chances both in May and November."

Watson told Courier Journal she is trying to follow the playbook of Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb, who won a special election in March in Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district. Lamb was able to flip back the support of union workers, who overwhelmingly voted for Trump, a Republican, in 2016.

"There's no other candidate in this race that has the support of labor-class people that I do," Watson said, noting that she has endorsements from more than 30 labor unions. "We can't call ourselves Democrats unless we stand behind working class people."

Canon, however, told Courier Journal instead of attempting to flip Republicans, the goal of his campaign is to reach new voters and people who may not be active voters.

He said he's doing that by "shaking the tree" of traditional politics, or by getting out in the community and doing things that people don't expect politicians to do. Among some of his nontraditional campaign events were a drag show and tattoo fundraisers.

"What we've tried to convey with this campaign is populism is more than just rhetoric," Canon said, adding that he's helped register more than 17,500 voters. "It's about engaging people."

Campaign spending also suggests a competitive race. Canon spent $359,025, as of April 18, compared to $288,467 for Watson. However, Watson still had $297,954 compared to $74,626 for Canon, data show.

In comparison, Hollingsworth has spent $489,292 and still has $432,343 on hand. Chatlos had raised $2,000, as of April 18, and had $450 on hand. Financial data wasn't available for Alspach.

Democrats feel they have a chance — despite uphill battle

While all indications point to the district being heavily Republican, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added Indiana's 9th District to its list of "public battle fields" that includes 101 districts across the country.

They're hoping it's part of what's been dubbed the "Blue Wave" of Republican districts that have been flipped back to Democrats.

The last Democrat to win the district was Baron Hill, who left office in 2011 after he was defeated by Senator Todd Young. Hill served one term after he was elected in 2007. He also served from 1999 to 2005, losing a reelection bid in 2004.

Howey, the political analyst, said a flip depends on uncertainty of how two aspects will affect voting — voter intensity and the effect of Trump's tariffs on farmers, who make up a large voting block in the district.

He said Democrats have the edge in voter intensity, while farmers will "vote their pocketbooks."

He said Young overwhelmingly won the last midterm election in 2016, when there was a 31 percent voter turnout, compared to 58 percent in 2016.

Both Canon and Watson addressed the difficulties of flipping the heavily Republican district. But they both expressed optimism that it can be done.

Canon pointed to Democrat Lee Hamilton, who held the district for 34 years until his retirement in 1999. He said Hamilton did it by "relating to people" regardless of party.

"People in Indiana value honesty and they recognize good ideas when they hear them," Canon said.

Watson said all she hears is concern that Hollingsworth is not there for Hoosiers, and she labeled him as a "net-zero" for the district. "People are so ready for a change," she said. "They're ready for someone who is going to stand up and vote for us. ... People aren't going to take it anymore."

But Hollingsworth is not concerned.

"I think fundamentally Hoosiers are going to ask themselves in the voting booth, 'Is my life better than it was two years ago?' And it's my job every single day as their advocate and representative that they can answer that question unequivocally yes," Hollingsworth said.

The opioid crisis and other big issues

Both Canon and Watson pointed to the region's opioid crisis, and, subsequently, health care reform, among the important issues of their campaigns.

The 9th District includes half of Scott County, which is home to Austin, the site of the nation’s worst drug-fueled HIV epidemic in recent history and largely a consequence of opioid abuse.

Canon labeled the crisis as the "only issue that is consistent across all 13 counties." During his campaigning, he hosted at his office three trainings to teach the public — and himself — how to use naloxone, a drug that reverses the effects of opioids.

When asked about the most memorable moments of her campaign, Watson pointed to a recent town hall in Lawrence County on the opioid crisis, where she heard from parents who lost children or had children in recovery programs.

"We came up with solutions," she said.

Other big issues highlighted by both candidates surround the issues of working-class people, who, as Watson put it, are struggling "to keep their heads above water." The issues include tax reform, equal rights for women, better jobs and good educational opportunities.

Watson said politicians like Hollingsworth, who spent $1 million of his own money and $370,000 from his father on his first campaign, don't represent the district.

She was raised in Bloomington before attending Georgetown University law school and working in Washington, D.C., as labor policy director for Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. She was also a lawyer at the National Women's Law Center, where she represented victims of domestic abuse and moms who were denied assistance.

She recently picked up an endorsement from Emily's List, which has been labeled as "the nation's most influential pro-choice political action committee."

"I am just so frustrated with Congress and our current representative who is not at all accountable to this district," said Watson, adding that she's the only Democratic candidate with legislative experience.

"People are standing up and fighting back and they are asserting their right to be heard and asserting their right to fair representation," she said. "That is so exciting to me."

Canon said he wants to bring back the middle class by eliminating the idea of "working poor." But he said unlike the other candidates, especially Watson, he can relate to that sector of the population better.

He was raised by a single mother, dropped out of high school and was poor before putting himself through public college and law school in Louisville. As a lawyer, he has been involved in groundbreaking cases in Kentucky regarding same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization.

"I'd like to think that I've got a real understanding that real working-class people face on a day-to-day basis," Canon said. "This is a big problem that we have in Washington, D.C. — we have people out of touch with the lives of their own constituents."

Chatlos, the other Democrat challenger, disagreed with both of them, labeling them as "machine politicians" who don't represent the people of the district.

"I know that they have a grassroots-type feel about it. But they're not," Chatlos told Courier Journal.

He pointed to a lack of civil discourse and decades of corruption on both sides as his reason for running. He also said the opioid crisis — and getting funding for treatment and prevention options — is his biggest issue. Other issues include curbing threats to democracy, including Russian election hacking, and getting single-payer health care.

"I just know that I have a unique set of skills and talents and knowledge and wisdom," Chatlos said, acknowledging that he faces an uphill battle. "I know that I would be of great service to stop this."

Hollingsworth's first re-election campaign

Rep. Hollingsworth's margin of victory over Yoder in 2016 was more than 44,000 votes, which was just 2,400 votes less than two-time incumbent and now-Sen. Todd Young in 2014.

But despite his overwhelming support, he's largely remained an unknown throughout his first-term in Congress, according to Howey, the political analyst.

Hollingsworth has voted in line with Trump's positions 87 percent of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight, a politics blog that tracks those numbers. He voted against his party 3.9 percent of the time, which ranks 334th out of the 430 total congressman, according to Politico.

Among his no votes was the $1.3 trillion 2018 budget omnibus bill. After his vote, he posted on Facebook that "when lifelong D.C. insiders get together in back rooms to spend $1.3 Trillion of your dollars, without your input, without working with your elected Representatives, and without our President's priorities. ... The time for term limits is NOW!"

Hollingsworth told Courier Journal that imposing term limits and enacting lobbying bans is the first thing he's do if he gets re-elected. Hollingsworth himself has said that he won't serve more than four terms, if continuously re-elected.

"I'm not running for Congress as much as I'm running to change Congress," said Hollingsworth, who was born in Tennessee and moved to Indiana prior to announcing his run in 2015. "I think that's an important distinction."

When asked to judge his first term in office, he said he's mainly proud of two things — increasing opportunities for Hoosiers in the 9th District in the business sector, and making them feel safe at home.

"There's a lot of enthusiasm there and optimism which is exactly what we needed after a decade of anemic growth before this," he said. "I continue to hear from Hoosiers all the way across the district how excited they are about the work we've been able to accomplish across the last year and a half."

Alspach, the other Republican candidate, said he was asked to enter the race by voters who "were offended" by Hollingsworth. They felt he bought the 2016 election and then they were further infuriated by his votes on issues including the tax reform bill and Obamacare, he said.

Alspach added that his big issues are drug-related — curbing the opioid crisis by reducing foreign drug trafficking and marijuana legalization. He said he's concerned the Republican seat is in danger.

"People are telling me 'Thank you for running,' 'We're glad to have choices,' 'We don't like him,' 'We want someone who's from here,' " said Alspach, a high school math and science teacher and a veteran of the state's national guard.

Justin Sayers: 502-582-4252; jsayers@gannett.com; Twitter: @_JustinSayers. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: www.courier-journal.com/justins.