Fifty days out from the November elections, Democrats are widely seen as favored to retake the House majority and are increasingly seen as having a real chance at winning back the Senate if a series of close races break in their direction.

The party enjoys a healthy lead in the generic House ballot, and a seemingly unending series of bad headlines for President Trump Donald John TrumpBiden on Trump's refusal to commit to peaceful transfer of power: 'What country are we in?' Romney: 'Unthinkable and unacceptable' to not commit to peaceful transition of power Two Louisville police officers shot amid Breonna Taylor grand jury protests MORE has battered his approval ratings and served as a drag on his party.

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The latest negative news came Friday with former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort Paul John ManafortOur Constitution is under attack by Attorney General William Barr Bannon trial date set in alleged border wall scam Conspicuous by their absence from the Republican Convention MORE’s decision to plead guilty and cooperate with special counsel Robert Mueller Robert (Bob) MuellerCNN's Toobin warns McCabe is in 'perilous condition' with emboldened Trump CNN anchor rips Trump over Stone while evoking Clinton-Lynch tarmac meeting The Hill's 12:30 Report: New Hampshire fallout MORE’s probe.

It’s a potentially pivotal moment in the Mueller probe that could put prosecutors in the room of a much-talked-about 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Trump campaign officials and figures associated with the Kremlin.

Manafort was one of three key Trump associates who participated in that meeting.

The White House and Republicans argue the growing economy will bolster GOP defenses and save their majorities. Democrats would need to gain a healthy 23 seats to take back the House.

“I think we'll lose some seats, but I think we keep the majority,” Rep. Roger Williams John (Roger) Roger WilliamsThe Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Yoho apologizes for accosting AOC Ocasio-Cortez accosted by GOP lawmaker over remarks: 'That kind of confrontation hasn't ever happened to me' Cook shifts 20 House districts toward Democrats MORE (R-Texas) told The Hill last week ahead of a weeklong recess for the House.

Yet Republican leaders have also put out warning signals, highlighting the reality that their party is playing defense with 50 days to go.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellFEC flags McConnell campaign over suspected accounting errors Poll: 59 percent think president elected in November should name next Supreme Court justice Mark Kelly: Arizona Senate race winner should be sworn in 'promptly' MORE (R-Ky.) warned last week that the midterms will be “very challenging” for the GOP, acknowledging that the party is facing a “storm” in its quest to hold its majority in the Senate.

McConnell’s quandary can be seen clearly in the nature of the battleground states.

Republicans have a favorable map, with Democrats defending more than twice as many Senate seats as the GOP, with 10 of them in states won by Trump in 2016.

But Republicans face competitive battles in Tennessee, Arizona and Texas, three dependably GOP states.

Close races have not emerged in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, three states won by Trump where Democrats are defending Senate seats.

In the House, 11 GOP seats are considered "likely Democrat" or "leaning Democrat" by the Cook Political Report, compared to one seat held by Democrats that is considered likely to be won by Republicans.

The one Democratic seat, in Pennsylvania, is likely to be won by a Republican candidate because of newly drawn district lines.

Another 28 GOP-held seats are considered toss-ups, compared to just three for Democrats in Cook’s tally.

Democrats left for the recess sounding confident.

“The mood is we wish the elections were Tuesday,” said Rep. Dan Kildee Daniel (Dan) Timothy KildeeLawmakers fear voter backlash over failure to reach COVID-19 relief deal Democrats set to hold out for big police reform More than 100 Democrats press Trump to extend jobless benefits MORE (D-Mich.). “The Republicans are in political quicksand, and the more they struggle the harder it is for them.

Republicans warn that a Democratic takeover of the House would lead to impeachment for Trump — a message intended to fire up the president’s base.

They also are warning of a leftward tilt to the Democratic Party seen in a few primary upsets, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s victory in New York over Rep. Joseph Crowley.

Democratic leaders, as they have done for much of 2018, are seeking to tamp down impeachment talk while focusing on healthcare and other pocketbook issues.

Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Thursday that healthcare will be the top issue for voters this year.

“Many of our Republican colleagues have voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act, not just once but as many as 60 times,” Luján said.

Trump is likely to play an outsize role in the midterms even with Democrats downplaying impeachment.

Deep dissatisfaction with the president has helped boost Democratic turnout throughout the primaries. Democrats have also been raising more money than their GOP counterparts, another factor pointing to greater enthusiasm on their sides.

There is still time for Trump to turn some news cycles to his advantage.

How the White House responds to Hurricane Florence will be a test of the president’s leadership and the administration’s preparations. Trump insisted last week that federal, state and local officials were “absolutely prepared” for the hurricane.

Sitting presidents typically see their party lose congressional seats in their first midterms, putting history squarely on Democrats’ side.

Trump’s approval rating currently sits just below 41 percent, according to a polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight.

That’s lower than former President Obama’s approval rating in 2010, the same year that Republicans took the majority in the House and gained six seats in the Senate.

But the concentration of Democratic voters in more urban and suburban areas of the country means that the party will need a larger share of the midterm than the Republicans, whose voters tend to live in more rural and exurban areas.

And in the battle for the Senate, the map could save the GOP’s majority.

Democrats need almost all of the close races to break their way to win back the Senate majority.

That means that Democrats Heidi Heitkamp Mary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampHarris faces pivotal moment with Supreme Court battle Centrists, progressives rally around Harris pick for VP 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly Joseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyHarris faces pivotal moment with Supreme Court battle Trump meets with potential Supreme Court pick Amy Coney Barrett at White House Names to watch as Trump picks Ginsburg replacement on Supreme Court MORE in Indiana and Claire McCaskill Claire Conner McCaskillMomentum growing among Republicans for Supreme Court vote before Election Day Democratic-linked group runs ads in Kansas GOP Senate primary Trump mocked for low attendance at rally MORE in Missouri will need to win in states that Trump won in 2016 by wide margins.

Republicans also see a pick-up opportunity in Florida, where they recruited Gov. Rick Scott to run against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson Clarence (Bill) William NelsonDemocrats sound alarm on possible election chaos Trump, facing trouble in Florida, goes all in NASA names DC headquarters after agency's first Black female engineer Mary W. Jackson MORE.

While Florida has emerged as a piece of good news in the Senate race for the GOP, they have reason to worry a bit about Texas, where Democrats recruited a telegenic candidate in Rep. Beto O'Rourke Beto O'RourkeJimmy Carter says his son smoked pot with Willie Nelson on White House roof O'Rourke endorses Kennedy for Senate: 'A champion for the values we're most proud of' 2020 Democrats do convention Zoom call MORE to run against Sen. Ted Cruz Rafael (Ted) Edward CruzCruz blocks amended resolution honoring Ginsburg over language about her dying wish Trump argues full Supreme Court needed to settle potential election disputes Press: Notorious RBG vs Notorious GOP MORE (R).

Cruz is favored to win reelection, but the mere fact that Texas is a close race is a victory of sorts for Democrats, potentially forcing Republicans to spend money in a state they’d hope would be in the bag.

In West Virginia, Sen. Joe Manchin Joseph (Joe) ManchinManchin defends Supreme Court candidate Barrett: 'It's awful to bring in religion' The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Trump, GOP allies prepare for SCOTUS nomination this week Trump meets with potential Supreme Court pick Amy Coney Barrett at White House MORE (D) is proving resilient in what may be Trump’s strongest state in the nation.

Democrats long saw Nevada as their most likely Senate pickup opportunity in 2018 given Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonDemocratic groups using Bloomberg money to launch M in Spanish language ads in Florida The Hill's Campaign Report: Presidential polls tighten weeks out from Election Day More than 50 Latino faith leaders endorse Biden MORE’s victory there in 2016. Rep. Jacky Rosen Jacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenHillicon Valley: Election officials prepare for new Russian interference battle | 'Markeyverse' of online fans helps take down a Kennedy | GOP senators unveil bill to update tech liability protections Google, Apple, eBay to meet virtually with lawmakers for tech group's annual fly-in Senate Democrats demand answers on migrant child trafficking during pandemic MORE (D) has mounted an aggressive challenge against incumbent Sen. Dean Heller Dean Arthur HellerOn The Trail: Democrats plan to hammer Trump on Social Security, Medicare Lobbying World Democrats spend big to put Senate in play MORE (R).

But the party is also eyeing seats in Arizona and Tennessee, where polls remain tight.

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) made inroads in her Arizona Senate bid throughout the summer as three Republicans duked it out in a bruising primary that eventually yielded Rep. Martha McSally Martha Elizabeth McSallyThe Hill's Campaign Report: Presidential polls tighten weeks out from Election Day Mark Kelly: Arizona Senate race winner should be sworn in 'promptly' New ABC/WaPost poll finds Trump edging Biden in Arizona, Florida MORE (R) as the nominee.

In Tennessee, Democrats have a strong candidate in former Gov. Phil Bredesen, who is challenging Rep. Marsha Blackburn Marsha BlackburnTaylor Swift on National Voter Registration Day: 'We need everyone' Democrats smell blood with new DHS whistleblower complaint Hillicon Valley: Election officials prepare for new Russian interference battle | 'Markeyverse' of online fans helps take down a Kennedy | GOP senators unveil bill to update tech liability protections MORE (R), a staunch Trump ally, to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker Robert (Bob) Phillips CorkerHas Congress captured Russia policy? Tennessee primary battle turns nasty for Republicans Cheney clashes with Trump MORE (R).

If he wins in November, Bredesen would be the first Democrat elected to the Senate from the Volunteer State since Al Gore Albert (Al) Arnold GoreBusiness groups start gaming out a Biden administration Cruz says Senate Republicans likely have votes to confirm Trump Supreme Court nominee 4 inconclusive Electoral College results that challenged our democracy MORE in 1990.