Trying to remain calm when everything around you has descended into chaos is a difficult task. The brain is complex and it is said that introverts have a thicker prefrontal cortex than their extroverted counterparts.

Deep thinking and planning are directly linked to this part of the brain, so being rational and calm in complex situations fits with the stereotypes we hold for the introverted.

If you owned a multi-million pound business, your aim would be to fill key leadership roles with the right type of leader. The best fit to manage your investment. Though often debated, effective leaders do need certain characteristics to succeed. Every task has its purpose, personnel need targets and every team has its goals. But everything can’t be expected to always go as planned and how you deal with complications is what separates effective and volatile leadership.

22 matches in, Brentford FC are a game away from the halfway point of the 18/19 season. To describe the season to date as not going to plan would be a huge understatement.

Back in the summer before a ball was kicked, I took a look at the squad and it’s impressive depth and you’d be hard pressed at that point to find someone that predicted it to be pushed as far as it has been.

Pre-season forecasts had Brentford FC in the top 6, not bottom 6, and with the way in which the first half of the year has panned out, models must have been tweaked with a dose of harsh realism and the consolidation of mid-table now very much on Brentford minds.

With a clear focus on youth development and maximising value on future sales, inconsistencies in performances at Brentford FC are to be expected. An attempt to minimize blips in performance can be actioned, amongst other things, by creating effective systems. Placing young players into important roles will always hold more risk than using an older, more experienced and expensive player, but if you identify the correct youth with greater talent and potential than older alternatives, the rewards and upside could far outweigh the risk. So we’re all aware of the fact than when gambling on youth, you’re prone to some problems throughout a season, what do you do when blips turn into trends and patterns of repeated errors become commonplace?

Faced with a change in leadership 12 games in, the youngest squad in the division is having to learn on the job in the hardest way possible. Dean Smith decided that the call of his boyhood club was too strong to turn down, with nobody of sense blaming him and his move to Aston Villa was completed with the blessing of the club.

On October 6th, Brentford FC occupied 6th in the EFL Championship table, joint on 18 points with three clubs, (Derby, Norwich, Blackburn), a goal difference of +6 and just 4 points above QPR, in 18th.

Thomas Frank was then promoted into the Head Coach role and a new leadership regime began. With the new leader in place, the aim at base level was to look for a continuation of what had previously occurred during Smith’s years. The idea was that the core systems continued to function, were maybe improved upon, and a positive environment that was conducive to development where young players are able to flourish was maintained.

Since the change however, The Bees have collected a measly 3 points during a good win over Millwall & an extremely lucky draw against West Brom. Those two games aside, Frank has lost 8 matches, 7 of which by just a single goal.

If you’re not aware by now, this is an incredibly competitive division.

Focussing on results, we’re assuming all is going horribly wrong, but I believe those in the boardroom would have more than accounted for the scenario currently playing out. We’re seeing young players punished for every error in judgement. We’re seeing multiple combinations of players in key positions, all falling foul to the brutal punishment dished up by opposition attackers. Goalkeeper saves are now dropping to the feet of forwards and scuffed shots aren’t being stopped at all.

What do you do to arrest this?

Frank has assured everyone who asks that training is meticulous, effort levels are as high as possible and all players are putting in their maximum. He sees the undoubted ability, every single day.

Looking at the numbers, it’s incredibly hard to spot what is really behind this run. Simply apportioning blame to one of this year’s two tenures is too easy. The timing of opposition faced has surely played its part with an even greater understanding of the Brentford weak spots and an unfortunate ability to compound misfortune on those areas, helplessly caused by injuries and forced adjustments to The Bees forward lines.

PPDA (Passes allowed per defensive action) is one of few advanced metrics that begins to offer the smallest ounce of clarity.

How PPDA is calculated is shown below, with the second image showing what we regard as the opposition’s final 60% of the pitch.

PPDA Calculation

Opponents final 60% of the pitch

Used to measure and qualify pressing intensity, dividing the number of passes you allow the opposition before you make a defensive action goes a long way to showing your style. Small drop offs in this area can have large impacts. A team built to look to defend high up the pitch will be striving for as low a PPDA score as possible.

This is how modern attacking sides function but Brentford especially look to perform in this way so that there’s a deflection away from their soft defensive midfield centre, a flaw that can’t be pinned to Frank.

Average PPDA under Smith — 7.6

Average PPDA under Frank — 9.46

For context, Leeds Utd (Top of championship at time of writing) have an 18/19 average PPDA of 6.56.

Derby (currently 4th in the championship) are second lowest with a PPDA number of 7.84.

Subtle differences can point to a combination of things, but an increase in PPDA for Brentford would appear to be unwanted, it’s doesn’t fit in with the squads skill set or how they’re designed to function.

The belief shown in Josh McEachran is huge and he has being given an almighty chance to showcase his abilities. Progressively, he is one of the best players in the division but he has an obvious weakness defensively and is only playable in a deep role if the forwards are effectively working as the first line of defence.

Unfortunately, throughout Franks tenure, the best forwards for the main tactical system have either been nursing injuries, playing through pain or unavailable for selection, and all against the strongest opposition.

At the time it felt like an important moment, but as Maupay was replaced by Judge against QPR, due to a necessarily cautious approach to a concussion, in came a player that lacks the positional discipline needed to execute the out of possession plan McEachran needs. In some of the most difficult fixtures, Sheffield United, Middlesbrough and West Brom, Brentford were arguably playing the most ineffective presser in the squad at a time when only the best would do.

The rise of Brentford’s PPDA score shows a correlation to Alan Judge but also the inability to select the injured Mokotjo. Although the side has made errors in defence, which may have occurred anyway, it’s the ease at which teams began to find themselves marauding through the thirds, funneling the ball wide and driving or crossing the football to central forwards, creating high quality chances. This didn’t frequently occur under Smith but has been happening with an eerie regularity under Frank, who hasn’t been afforded the basic luxury of a stretch with his best players at his most needed times.

Frank is sure the squad are still focussed and have not shown any drop off at Jersey Road but performances in attack are regressing now too, as opposition get their gifted number of goals and then camp or look to counter attack their way through the remaining 70 mins.

Average Shot distance under Smith — 18.26 meters

Average Shot distance under Frank — 20.68 meters

When nothing you try is transforming into the result you require, do you trust your judgement and continue to play through the pain? Hoping, praying, expecting fortune’s to soon turn, and knowing you have the players to deliver. If you have faith in your process, that level of faith demands you expect a plan to come good. Pulling the plug at the first sign of adversity doesn’t quite fit.

I’ll continue to stress the point, as I did on the Beesotted podcast that Smith could easily have found himself enduring this type of run and that TF’s 10 fixtures in charge have been harder than Smith’s 12.

So if the decision making team at the top are playing the long game, the long game being variance correcting itself and the squad eventually seeing themselves through the turbulence as the better players return to fitness, who more fitting than a calm, measured and logical leader to not be rash in judgement, and to deal with pressure in an exemplary way while attempting to keep doing the things that have gotten the club this far.

My instincts with the patience offered to Frank, is an organisation desperate for calmness while trying to play through a statistical anomaly. From the owners perspective, I can’t think of a clearer reason to persist with the current Head Coach, other than staunchly believing his measured tendencies are exactly what are required to see his assets through a tempestuous period, such as this.

When looking at how much underlying performance has dipped, there appears be a contrast in the strength of the numbers from the pitch and the strength of faith in the boardroom surrounding Frank’s leadership. This points to overall measurement looking at many more areas than Brentford’s Expected Goals ratios.

Frank has been dignified, honest and a complete gentleman in what has clearly been one of the toughest on and off the field periods since the return to the second tier.

Performances on the pitch may have reached a tipping point within some sections of fans, but Frank must be doing something tangible on the training ground or behind the scenes, because Brentford FC, working in the way that they do are one of only a handful of British clubs that can take the emotion away from fans demands for change, due to an enlightened key indicator.

Having finally appointed an Assistant Head Coach in King Kev, it does feel both at the same time, that the club are finally giving Frank the team he requires, but also a safety first appointment. Some believe what is actually lacking, may only be found outside of the club, in the shape of an individual along the lines of a Michael Appleton.

If Frank wasn’t the man to lead the side into the future, I believe the club would have made the decision to part ways weeks ago. That isn’t to say that the home game against Bolton, 22nd December, the exact halfway point of the season, doesn’t have a climactic feel to it. As it feels like it does.

It’s an absolute must win.

Everything at Brentford comes down to odds and the chances of events occurring. The fivethirtyeight modelers at time of writing have Brentford FC at a 6% chance of being relegated from the Championship. The probability of that particular event happening is not going to worry any of the smart thinkers in TW8, but that number can shift upwards.

Lose to Bolton, and if Rotherham continue their improvement and somehow find a way past West Brom, we could see a little more attention payed to the supposed 3 or so worse teams.

But in the meantime, Frank must get his message right. To regain support from distressed fan factions, there can’t be anything overly confusing for the players, long term plans and subtle advancements in tactics may have to wait, but while he remains, we should trust the board in their decision to place their continued trust in Thomas.

In a storm of chaos, there’s some value in the chance of an introverted thinker bringing blue skies back to TW8.