Mesoscale Discussion 1635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469... Valid 292052Z - 292145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest near-term severe threat within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 should focus across a small part of eastern New York. DISCUSSION...A special 18Z sounding from ALB showed a veering/strengthening wind profile through the troposphere. Adjusting this sounding with the latest surface observation suggests that instability still remains weak owing mainly to poor mid-level lapse rates, with MLCAPE around 300 J/kg, which is substantially less than 20Z mesoanalysis estimates of 500-1000 J/kg. Regardless, around 45 kt of effective bulk shear will continue to support the potential for organized storms, and a supercell north of Albany NY has recently produced 1.5 inch hail, along with showing signs of some low-level rotation. Damaging winds and isolated large hail should continue to be the main threats within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469, with the greatest near-term severe threat focused across a small part of eastern NY with ongoing strong/severe convection. In addition to the hail/wind threats, a tornado or two also remains possible across mainly eastern NY. Low-level winds are locally backed to southeasterly across this area per latest surface observations and VWP from KENX, which is supporting 100-200 m2/s2 of effective bulk shear. ..Gleason.. 08/29/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42857492 43057424 43377396 43367329 42737333 42617360 42607465 42857492