Are we on the verge of societal collapse? Scientists from the University of Maryland think we are. The researchers have developed a new model in a soon-to-be-published research paper. The Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY) model states that if humans continue down the road of overconsumption of resources and wealth inequality, societal collapse is imminent.

The study was led by mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation. The HANDY model paper has been accepted to be published in the Elsevier Journal, the transdisciplinary journal of the International Society for Ecological Economics (ISEE).

The research examines historical data and claims that it shows that the “process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history”. According to historical data presented in the report, every complex and advanced civilization is sensitized to collapse, which raises concerns about the sustainability of modern society. The study cites not only the fall of the Roman Empire but also the advanced Gupta and Mesopotamian Empires, as being testimony to how sophisticated, creative and complex civilizations can be breakable and transient.









Looking to the Past

The project uses these past cases of advanced societal collapse to identify the most prominent reticular factors that explain societal decline. The researchers use these salient factors to issue their warning that modern civilization is heading towards a similar collapse.

The components highlighted by the scientists that pose a risk to civilization as we know it, predominantly include:

— Climate

— Population

— Energy

— Agriculture

— Water

Depleting natural resources is at the forefront of the HANDY model. Societal collapse, according to the researchers, was more likely to occur if a civilization exhausted its natural resources.

In traditional environmental analysis, the issue of the depletion of natural resources has principally been a problem of overpopulation. In the late eighteenth century, English cleric and scholar Thomas Malthus raised the issue of what he deemed as “inevitable shortages of food in relation to population growth”.

Today, focus of environmental concern has shifted towards worries of climate change. The HANDY model views “the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity” as a leading factor that can lead to collapse. The researchers cite a “predator/prey model”. As the population of prey increases, the predators feeding on the prey also thrive. When the predators become too numerous, they over-consume the prey and famine results.