Despite the PM’s declaration, it is unclear how current climate policy will ensure Australia reaches its Paris commitment

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

Malcolm Turnbull, on a tour of drought-stricken areas in New South Wales and Queensland, has declared there is “no doubt that our climate is getting warmer”.



Flanked by Nationals on Monday in Trangie, Turnbull acknowledged climate change remained a live political debate but he said: “I don’t know many people in rural New South Wales that I talk to that don’t think the climate is getting drier and rainfall is becoming more volatile.”

The minister for agriculture, David Littleproud, said the last agricultural ministerial council had agreed to help transition farmers into a changing environment and a changing climate.

The south-east of Australia this year has experienced record high temperatures during an unseasonably dry and hot autumn, prompting fire bans and warnings from authorities.

In its latest winter outlook, the Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting warmer and drier than average conditions across large parts of the country. It suggests winter rainfall is likely to be below average for NSW, South Australia, northern Victoria and western parts of Western Australia.

The bureau says the dry is likely to be particularly intense in areas around the Murray-Darling Basin and in eastern NSW, with a 70-80% chance of below average rainfall. “Elsewhere around the country, the chances of exceeding average rainfall are roughly 50%,” the new forecast said.

The overwhelming consensus among climate scientists is climate change is accelerating and human activity is making a contribution. If greenhouse gas emissions aren’t reduced, human populations become more exposed to the negative effects of warming, which include extreme weather events – such as prolonged drought, heatwaves, wildfires and storms.

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Emissions in Australia fell during the carbon pricing scheme implemented by the Labor government but the Abbott government repealed that scheme and emissions are now trending upwards year-on-year.

The latest official emissions data shows pollution increased by 1.5% in the year to December 2017. Australia’s emissions levels are now higher than they were in 2012 and have climbed 3.6% since the carbon price was repealed in 2014.

Emissions are increasing in most sectors of the economy – in waste, agriculture and transport. Only one sector of the economy has recorded a decrease – the electricity sector – because ageing coal-fired power plants have exited the system, and new renewables projects are coming on stream.

The Turnbull government is trying to implement a policy in electricity that would see emissions come down by 26% on 2005 levels by 2030 – a target many analysts say is too low for Australia to meet its commitments under the Paris agreement – but even that target is being gainsaid by government conservatives who have not ruled out crossing the floor to oppose it.

Analysis from Green Energy Markets says the national energy guarantee (Neg) will deliver no meaningful emissions reductions in its own right unless the target is made more ambitious, because the capacity of renewable projects now under construction already exceeds what is required to achieve the 2030 target.

While battling internal pressures over the Neg, the government has also been stalling on new vehicle emissions standards for vehicles, bracing for more internal ructions. Australia no longer has a domestic car manufacturing industry but motoring groups have been lobbying against a 105gCO2/km emissions target.

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It is unclear how Australia will meet its emissions reduction commitments under the Paris agreement without a policy roadmap to get there.

Ahead of a meeting of the G7 in Canada, a coalition of institutional investors has meanwhile sounded the alarm that countries are falling short of their Paris commitments.

A group of institutional investors with $26 trillion in assets under management – including Australia’s Investor Group on Climate Change – presented a statement of concern to G7 leaders and it was delivered to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The joint statement said: “We are concerned that the implementation of the Paris agreement is currently falling short of the agreed goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels”.

Emma Herd, the chief executive officer of the Investor Group on Climate Change, said investors were “stepping up in unprecedented numbers to act on climate change”.

“Investors could do even more if governments delivered the policies required to effectively manage climate risk and accelerate investment in low-carbon solutions,” Herd said.