and Teresa Dixon Murray, Plain Dealer Reporter

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- He's more than a sports superstar. He's a one-man economic engine that drives the lane, fills the bars and puts Cleveland on national TV.

Exactly how much LeBron James means to the local economy is difficult to calculate. Millions? Of course. Billions? Maybe, maybe not.

Either way, the economy will feel the sting if James decides to take his basketball and play elsewhere. The league's two-time Most Valuable Player can become a free agent Thursday and sign with another team.

Got your calculator? Let's see how much money we might lose.

Start with downtown businesses

If the Chosen One chooses someone else, downtown businesses figure to lose $48 million over the course of a season. Here's how:

For three years, Quicken Loans Arena has seen sellout crowds of more than 20,500. Virtually every one of those people came to watch Northeast Ohio's biggest sports star.

"They fill up the restaurants. They go to the bars after the games. They spend a lot of money," said Jerry Hausman, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studied Michael Jordan's effect on the National Basketball Association.

Jordan led the Chicago Bulls to their sixth NBA title in eight years in the 1997-98 season. Then he called it quits.

The next year, the Bulls missed the playoffs, and attendance fell by 1,500 per game in a season shortened by a labor dispute. More losing seasons followed, and by 2001-2002, attendance was down by more than 5,000 a game.

In Houston, Hakeem Olajuwon led the Rockets to back-to-back NBA championships in the 1993-94 and 1994-95 seasons. Every home game for four seasons afterward was a sellout. But with Olajuwon gone in 2000-01, attendance was off about 3,600 per game from the sellout years -- despite the team's winning record. And a year after that, per-game attendance was down about 4,500 from the peak.

Say LeBron leaves and the crowds shrink to the size they were before he arrived: a little under 14,000 fans a game. That's 6,500 fewer people buying tickets, paying for parking, visiting restaurants, celebrating in bars and renting the occasional hotel room for the night.

Positively Cleveland, the city's convention and visitors bureau, estimates that the average fan spends $180 per game to see the Cavs at The Q, meaning the smaller crowd would cost businesses $1.2 million per game. Multiply that by 41 home games, and you have $48 million.

Or, more precisely, you don't have it.

Now, the playoffs

Imagine LeBron leads the Cavs deep into the playoffs. Yes, forget this year for a moment.

John Skorburg, an economist at the University of Illinois at Chicago, esimates the James-led Cavs could generate $15 million for Greater Cleveland for each home playoff game. That's based on a sellout crowd at the Q and 5 percent of the population watching the playoffs -- eating, drinking, bar-hopping, renting cars, buying jerseys and so forth. He figures an average of $100 per person.

So on top of $48 million, add 10 home playoff games -- a total of $150 million, according to Skorburg.

Other cities would benefit even more. Skorburg estimates that Chicago would gain $500 million and New York $1 billion, because more people live in those places.

The team itself loses value, too

The franchise is worth $476 million now, but if James left, it could revert to close to what it was before he signed with the Cavs in 2003, said Bruce S. Schaeffer, president of Franchise Valuations Ltd., in New York.

The Cavs were valued at $258 million before James. The value jumped to $298 million in 2004. In early 2005, Gilbert bought the team for $375 million.

Don Erickson, co-founder of Erickson Partners in Dallas, who specializes in sports team contracts and values, said the value of the franchise depends on how much money the team is making. It's possible a team could become more profitable if it's not paying a superstar's salary.

"The fact is that the Cavaliers may or may not be getting a rate of return for their investment in him," Erickson said. "You can overpay players. Teams have done that. The same thing could be true with LeBron James."

Still, Forbes magazine puts James' value to the franchise at somewhere around $100 million. Aggregate revenue over James' seven years has averaged $19.4 million more than the seven pre-James years, Forbes says.

The magazine used those figures to determine that James has added at least $56 million in inflation-adjusted value. That doesn't include media, sponsorship and branding revenues -- things like local advertising rates and licensing fees that add 50 percent to 66 percent more value.

"If Mr. Gilbert wants to maximize his long-term wealth position," Forbes said, "the numbers suggest that he better retain his King. Otherwise, Gilbert becomes a court jester in his own kingdom."

What's LeBron worth?

$48 million



The amount downtown businesses could lose if LeBron left the Cavs

$150 million



The amount the region would lose if it missed out on 10 home playoff games

$100 million



The amount LeBron contributes to the Cavs' total value

Priceless



The happiness we feel having LeBron playing here

*

Even the government gets hit

If James worked only in Ohio, as most of us do, he would pay about $976,773 in state income taxes on his Cavs' salary.

He doesn't. Like all professional athletes and entertainers, he pays income taxes to other states based on the number of days he plays or practices there. You might say conservatively that he spends more than half of his working time in Ohio.

James also pays local income taxes, about $353,250 to Cleveland, Independence and Akron combined.

Of course, none of this includes taxes on his $28 million in income from endorsements. Nor does it include the $186,942.98 in annual property taxes he pays on his 30,000-square-foot home in Bath Township, valued at $9.8 million.

Between all of the taxes, James pays more than $1 million to local governments.

Some of that money might continue to flow if James left town. Would he sell his palace in Bath? How many games would he still play here?

No one has those answers. But no one knows if he's leaving either, so why stop there?

Finally, the squishy stuff

The monetary side is only one part of James' value, said economist LeRoy Brooks of John Carroll University in University Heights.

The other part, in economist's terms, is utility. That's a bureaucratic way of saying this:

"He makes people happier," Brooks said. "It's not just the money. He makes people feel better, more enthused.

"Why do you think sports is so big? There's a sense of community that comes from sports. It helps bring a community together."

Downtown development, to some extent, also might rest on James' shoulders. If the Cavs are good, downtown buzzes, and it becomes a more appealing place to live. If no one comes downtown for games, the electricity ebbs.

And the city's image shines when the Cavs play on national TV, a more common occurrence in the LeBron years.

"You can't underestimate LeBron's impact on our community and our region," said Cavaliers President Len Komoroski.

Komoroski is quick to note that fans are renewing season tickets and luxury boxes at record levels. He declines to say whether he thinks James will stay in Cleveland. But even if he leaves, Komoroski says he's certain the team won't fall apart as the Bulls did when they lost Jordan.

"Our fans in Northeast Ohio believe in Dan Gilbert and our team and that Dan will take the necessary steps" to keep the Cavs competitive, Komoroski said. "Fans understand that the right kind of decisions are being made."

That might be, but the biggest decision -- the one James soon will make -- is yet to come.