By: Joe Fortenbaugh

The 117th edition of the U.S. Open gets underway at Erin Hills in Erin, Wisconsin Thursday, with a field of 156 golfers set to do battle over a tournament-record $12 million prize pool.



For the second time in the last three summers (Chambers Bay in 2015), the U.S. Open will be contested on a relatively new golf track. A 7,741-yard monster situated 35 miles northwest of Milwaukee, Erin Hills opened to the public in 2006 and is the first U.S. Open layout to feature a par of 72 since Tom Kite shot 3-under at Pebble Beach in 1992.



For those scoring at home, take note of the history that will be made in Wisconsin this week, as Erin Hills is set to officially lay claim to the title of “longest course in major championship history.” Now, all that’s left to do is figure out how to tame this beast from a wagering perspective.



Here are your 18 need-to-know golf betting notes for the 2017 U.S. Open:



1. Listed as the tournament favorite at a price of 7/1, 2016 U.S. Open Champion (Oakmont Country Club) Dustin Johnson is set to defend his title in Wisconsin this week. While the length of Erin Hills certainly plays right into Johnson’s game (currently ranks first on Tour in driving distance at 312.1 yds/drive), be advised that no golfer has recorded back-to-back U.S. Open triumphs since Curtis Strange emerged victorious at both The Country Club (Brookline, MA) in 1988 and Oak Hill (Rochester, NY) in 1989.



2. While he’s never won this specific tournament, perhaps no golfer in the field has experienced more consistent success at the U.S. Open than Jason Day (12/1), who since 2011 has posted the following results in this event: 2, T59, T2, T4, T9 and T8. Take note that after finishing T60 at THE PLAYERS Championship in May, Day rebounded with a second-place effort at the Byron Nelson and a T15 at the Memorial two weeks ago.



3. PROP: Finish position by Jason Day: Over/Under 17.5 (-110 both ways): As mentioned directly above, Day is an absolute gamer when it comes to the U.S. Open. We’re targeting the under in this spot.



4. Trending hot: 22-year-old Jon Rahm (15/1), a TOUR professional for less than a year, has been an absolute beast since late November, with eight top-10s, six top-5s and one victory (Farmers Insurance Open in late January) in just 13 starts. Yes, Rahm did miss the cut at the Memorial two weeks ago, but prior to that the Arizona State product finished T2 at the Dean & Deluca Invitational in late May. Note that the Westgate is currently offering an Over/Under finishing position for Rahm of 20.5 (-110 both ways).



5. PROP: Winning 72-hole score: Over/Under 279.5 (-110 both ways): Be advised that the winning golfer needs to fire a 9-under or lower in order for the Under to cash here. Also note that a -9 or lower has been recorded at the U.S. Open just twice in the last 16 years (Martin Kaymer’s 9-under at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014 and Rory McIlroy’s 16-under at Congressional in 2011).



6. Said 2015 U.S. Open Champion (Chambers Bay) Jordan Spieth (12/1) on Tuesday, “I don’t see par winning the tournament. I see closer to 5 to 10 under. Someone who has very good control of the ball off the tee will have plenty of opportunities to make birdies, given the conditions that we’re expecting. And I think the USGA is very much OK with that. And I think that they’re looking for a really exciting championship that they’d like to be tough but fair.”



7. With that in mind, here are some of the PGA Tour’s top golfers as it pertains to Driving Accuracy Percentage: Steve Striker at 100/1 (1st, 72.8%), Francesco Molinari at 80/1/1 (2nd, 71.7%), Brian Stuard at 500/1 (3rd, 71.2%), Jim Furyk at 250/1 (4th, 70.5%), Graeme McDowell at 150/1 (9th, 69.6%) and Martin Kaymer at 60/1 (14th, 68.6%).



8. Trending cold: Speaking of Martin Kaymer (60/1), the 32-year-old winner of the 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 went from a T16 at the Masters in April to a T32 at the RBC Heritage a week later to a T69 at THE PLAYERS Championship in mid May. Throw in a missed cut at the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour in late May and you’ve got a talented golfer who has a lot to figure out before he finds himself back in serious contention.



9. Weather report: Be on the lookout for a fair share of precipitation in Wisconsin this weekend. On Thursday, the forecast features a high of 86 degrees with a 10 percent chance of precipitation and 13 mile-per-hour winds out of the west. On Friday, we’re looking at scattered thunderstorms with a high of 82 degrees, 50 percent chance of precipitation and minimal winds. Looking ahead to Saturday, expect morning showers with a high of 84 degrees, 40 percent chance of precipitation and winds out of the southwest at 12 miles-per-hour. As for Sunday, WeatherChannel.com is calling for partly cloudy skies, a high of 75 degrees, a 20 percent chance of precipitation and 16 mile-per-hour winds out of the west.



10. Weather…continued: At the moment, any inclement weather expected to hit Erin Hills is scheduled for Thursday evening into Friday morning. With that in mind, the safe play here may be to target golfers who tee-off Thursday morning, as they could miss the afternoon showers on Thursday and morning showers on Friday thanks to their Friday afternoon tee times. Conversely, golfers who tee-off Thursday afternoon will also tee-off Friday morning and could get drilled with precipitation during both rounds.



11. At the ripe old age of 37, Sergio Garcia (25/1) finally broke through and won his first major championship back in April at Augusta National. For those of you considering the idea of riding Garcia’s hot hand, be advised that only six golfers have won the first two major championships of the year: Craig Wood in 1941, Ben Hogan in 1951 and 1953, Arnold Palmer in 1960, Jack Nicklaus in 1972, Tiger Woods in 2002 and Jordan Spieth in 2015.



12. If Phil Mickelson is unable to compete this week due to his daughter’s high school graduation Thursday morning in San Diego, 52 of the 156 participants this year (33.3 percent) will be U.S. Open rookies. This is worth noting due to the fact that you have to go back all the way to the year 1913 to find the last time a U.S. Open rookie won the event (Francis Ouimet).



13. Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: As mentioned above, the record-breaking length of Erin Hills will require excellent and precise play from the tee box this week. And since Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green is an excellent metric for analyzing tee box play, let’s take a look at the Tour’s top golfers in this particular category: Dustin Johnson at 7/1 (1st), Jon Rahm at 15/1 (2nd), Sergio Garcia at 25/1 (3rd), Francesco Molinari at 80/1(4th), Hideki Matsuyama at 30/1 (7th), Jordan Spieth at 12/1 (10th) and Rickie Fowler at 15/1 (11th).



14. 4-ROUND MATCHUP PLAY: Adam Scott (-120) over Hideki Matsuyama (even): Scott has made the cut in five straight U.S. Open tournaments with three Top-15s and two Top-9s recorded during that stretch, while Matsuyama just so happened to miss the cut at this tournament last year. In addition, ever since winning the Waste Management Phoenix Open back in early February, Matsuyama has recorded just one Top-20 finish over his last eight starts, which includes a mediocre T45 notched two weeks ago at the Memorial. We’ll lay the -120 with Adam Scott in this spot.



15. Long shot to consider: Francesco Molinari (80/1): The 34 year old is bankable off the tee and has put together a remarkable season that includes five Top-10 finishes and eight Top-15 finishes over his last 15 starts. In addition to playing an 80/1 lottery ticket on Molinari, feel free to lay the -140 in his four-round matchup prop against Billy Horschel, who has missed the cut in five of his last eight starts.



16. Be very careful with Justin Rose (20/1): The 36-year-old winner of the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion has played in exactly two PGA Tour events since succumbing to Sergio Garcia’s pressure down the stretch at the Masters back in April. And those two events resulted in a missed cut at the Zurich Classic and a T65 at THE PLAYERS Championship back in May. Additionally, there is some concern that Rose’s back isn’t quite 100 percent entering the most difficult tournament of the season. We recommend either a fade or pass this week when it comes to Rose.



17. Five of the last six U.S. Open championships have been won by golfers who found themselves within the Top-15 in the Official World Golf Rankings entering the week of the U.S. Open. The current Top 15 looks as follows: Dustin Johnson (7/1), Rory McIlroy (12/1), Jason Day (12/1), Hideki Matsuyama (30/1), Jordan Spieth (12/1), Henrik Stenson (30/1), Sergio Garcia (25/1), Alex Noren (50/1), Rickie Fowler (15/1), Jon Rahm (15/1), Justin Rose (20/1), Adam Scott (25/1), Justin Thomas (30/1), Paul Casey (40/1) and Matt Kuchar (50/1).



18. PROP: First round score by Dustin Johnson: 71.5 (-110 both ways): Starting with last summer and working backwards, here’s each first-round score Johnson has recorded over his last four trips to the U.S. Open: 67, 65, 69, 71. Factor in the ridiculous length of Erin Hills favoring long, accurate hitters like Johnson and you have a nice recipe for an under bet in this situation.





*All odds and props courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

