“For the first time ever, the European Commission has listed turning the EU into a mere platform to facilitate trade as an option for the EU's future,” said Pieter Cleppe, the head of the Open Europe think-tank in Brussels.

“Of course it's unlikely that EU27 leaders would go for this but it's progress - ironically when UK just voted to leave. In reality they are more likely to go for ‘business as usual’, but this would be a mistake.”

The decision to throw the debate on the future of Europe back to European capitals - which Brussels complains often scapegoat the EU institutions for their own failure to deliver - was also a departure, according to regional analysts.

“This is the most interesting analytical and political exercise the Commission has undertaken for quite some time,” said Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe practice at the Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy.

“For the first time Brussels is asking EU member states to decide the direction of travel, instead of forcing their own agenda. If this portends a new approach, it will undermine the narrative in EU capitals that Brussels is undermining national sovereignty.”

The five options are as follows:

Scenario 1. Carrying on

In this scenario the EU27 "sticks to its course" but, Mr Juncker notes, the speed of EU decision-making "depends on overcoming differences of views in order to deliver on collective long-term priorities". In other words, the decision-making remains unwieldy, as at present.

Mr Juncker says that by 2025 this strategy will deliver only "incremental progress" on jobs, economy and the Euro, while on defence, EU co-operation is "deepened in terms of research, industry and joint procurement" allowing member states to "pool some military capabilities and to enhance financial solidarity for EU missions abroad".