When Evan Bayh made his late leap into Indiana’s Senate race in July, he looked like a lock to take back his old seat. Now, no one is so sure.

Democrats hoped to scare Republicans out of competing for Indiana altogether with an early show of force this summer, essentially locking up a third Senate pick-up from Republicans’ 54-seat majority before the fall campaign even got started. But the GOP has instead poured millions into bashing Bayh and is now redoubling its efforts, as multiple independent surveys now show a much closer campaign than Democratic polls released this summer — and with that, less margin for error in Democrats’ drive to retake the majority, which recently expanded into new vulnerable GOP-held states but has also been set back by developments in Florida and Ohio.


Republican groups have already spent $5 million in Indiana on television and canvassing efforts, Federal Election Commission records show. Senate Leadership Fund, the biggest Republican Senate super PAC, began pouring another $4 million in TV advertising into the state on Tuesday — and Democrats’ main super PAC is getting ready to respond. Republicans hope Donald Trump’s current lead in Indiana, combined with a barrage of advertising on Bayh’s record in Washington — both as a senator and, after his Senate retirement, as an employee for a D.C. lobbying and law firm and a corporate board member — will push relatively unknown Republican Rep. Todd Young to victory over the well-established Bayh, a former governor as well as a senator.

The key has always been whether Republicans had enough time and willingness to run a major campaign attacking Bayh’s record. The groups arrayed against him think that they do.

“We have his lead cut in half, and we think this race is absolutely one we’re going to get done,” Americans for Prosperity President Tim Phillips said.

The Koch network was the first GOP group to go up on air after Bayh entered the race and has deployed its two dozen staff members in the state to make the case against him, painting Bayh’s work for a lobbying firm as cronyism and criticizing Bayh’s vote in favor of Obamacare. Americans for Prosperity has spent more than half a million dollars on the ground in Indiana thus far and anticipates it will become a seven-figure endeavor.

Democrats had started to pencil in Indiana as a likely Senate victory alongside Illinois and Wisconsin, which would put them on the precipice of retaking Senate control from the GOP. Yet there are many signs of Republicans’ continuing belief in Young. Former President George W. Bush joined Young at two Indiana fundraisers Monday. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce — which not too long ago paid Bayh to speak around the country about the regulatory process — is meanwhile “fully committed to Todd Young being the next senator from Indiana,” said U.S. Chamber of Commerce national political director Rob Engstrom.

Young has never led in a public survey, but two recent ones suggest the race is closer than in four previous polls conducted by Democratic groups, including one from Bayh’s campaign, that had Bayh’s lead between 16 and 26 percentage points. An independent survey for Howey Politics Indiana and WTHR (conducted by a GOP firm) showed Bayh ahead 44 percent to 40 percent, while a previous Monmouth poll showed Bayh up 48-41.

A private survey commissioned by a right-leaning outside group the week after Labor Day found Young within 10 points of Bayh, according to results shared with POLITICO. On the “informed ballot” — after respondents heard messages about both candidates — Bayh led Young only 45-43. Meanwhile, Trump has led over Hillary Clinton in recent surveys, too, making Indiana one of the few 2016 Senate states where Republicans aren’t concerned about top-of-the-ticket drag.

Asked about the recent polls, Bayh campaign spokesman Ben Ray said that “this is a competitive race in a red state.”

“We are ready,” Ray said.

Republican willingness to take on Bayh is only the first step. The Democrat and his family have long political history in Indiana, with preexisting name recognition that Bayh burnished with immediate TV ads after jumping in the race. Democrats insist that Republicans won’t be able to convince Hoosiers that Bayh is a D.C. insider who abandoned their state before Election Day.

“Republicans attempting to redefine [Bayh] is not going to work,” said Kip Tew, former chair of the Indiana Democratic Party. Young’s campaign has “done a pretty good job of trying to control the narrative,” Tew conceded, but at the end of the day “Bayh has a name and a brand in this state that’s unparalleled.”

In the face of intense media scrutiny, Bayh’s attempts to reintroduce himself to Indiana are sometimes garnering less attention than his campaign flubs. Bayh has asserted he is still an Indiana resident, but reporters have found neighbors who attest he’s rarely at his Indianapolis condo, and his voter status is inactive. Bayh even botched his own home address in a recent interview.

There are signs Bayh is feeling the heat. His campaign on Monday posted information on his website that appears to signal that Bayh wants help from outside groups, targeting seniors and other adults with negative ads on Young and Social Security.

“Hoosier seniors and their grown children need to learn that Washington Congressman Todd Young has voted 5 times to allow Social Security funds to be gambled on risky Wall Street markets,” Bayh’s site currently reads.

Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC announced on Tuesday that it will begin airing ads in Indiana later this week, as first reported by Roll Call, but did not specify how much it planned to spend or how long the ads would run for.

“We’re taking nothing for granted as we work to win back the Senate this November,” said Senate Majority PAC spokesman Shripal Shah. “Republicans have spent millions — including nearly $5 million in just the last month — on misleading attacks to prop up Todd Young’s struggling campaign. We’re not going to let those attacks go unanswered.”

With more than $9 million in the bank when he jumped in the race in July, Bayh started with more money than most candidates heading into the homestretch of the election. It has been enough to advertise heavily in Indiana, where media markets are relatively inexpensive. The DSCC also has $1.3 million reserved in television spending.

But right now, Republicans have $7 million reserved in television airtime, less than Bayh and Democrats have reserved. And more pro-Young funds are likely to come from groups like the Chamber of Commerce, which hasn’t reserved television airtime in advance.

Bayh’s vote in favor of Obamacare hasn’t drawn as much attention as Bayh’s post-Senate career in Washington, but it’s poised to be a central issue in the race, Republicans say. That was the focus of Senate Leadership Fund’s first attack ad on Tuesday.

“One man could have stopped this mess by standing with Indiana, but he didn’t. Instead Evan Bayh cast the deciding vote for Obamacare,” a narrator says in the ad. “When it counted, Evan Bayh voted with them — not with Indiana.”