Spoiler alert: Bill Belichick is No. 1 on this list. But you already knew that before you clicked on the link. You probably know who No. 2 is, as well. After those top-two, things get tricky. This is our best attempt to sort out the rest of NFL’s coaching hierarchy.

A few notes before we get started: This is not a lifetime achievement award. We don’t really care what you did ten years ago, although longevity is certainly a plus. Also, rookie head coaches were automatically placed at the bottom for the simple fact that we’ve never seen them work as head coaches. The rookies were ranked based on our expectations.

With that out of the way, let’s start with No. 32…

32. Vance Joseph, Broncos

Joseph lands at the bottom of the list for one major reason: Of the new coaches, he has the least experience as a top-level assistant. He spent only one season as the Dolphins defensive coordinator before landing the Broncos job. We just don’t know much about him other than the fact that his players love him. That only gets you so far as a head coach.

31. Anthony Lynn, Chargers

Lynn has worked as an assistant head coach every season since 2013, but the results haven’t been so great. And like Joseph, he spent only one season as a coordinator, taking over for Greg Roman as the Bills play-caller early last season. Again, results were mixed.

30. Sean McVay, Rams

McVay is one of the brightest offensive minds in the league. He’s only 31, so it’s going to be difficult for him to command a locker room featuring vets older than he is. We do know one thing: The Rams offense will be a lot better with McVay calling the shots.

29. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers

There’s no questioning Shanahan’s ability as an offensive coordinator. His versatile offense propelled the Falcons to the Super Bowl in 2016. But Shanahan doesn’t have the best reputation as a man manager, which could end up derailing his head coaching career, no matter how well his offense plays.

28. Sean McDermott, Bills

McDermott tops the list of new coaches because, more than anyone under him on this list, he has shown the ability to adapt to his personnel. He had to work with spare parts at times in Carolina and always found a way to adapt his scheme to get the most out of his players. That’s the sign of a good head coach.

27. Doug Marrone, Jaguars

The Marrone hiring feels like an extension of the disastrous Gus Bradley era. The Jaguars made few changes to the coaching staff, and with Tom Coughlin now presiding over the team, Marrone could very well be coaching for his job in 2017.

26. Doug Pederson, Eagles

Pederson’s debut season was not too different from Carson Wentz’s rookie season: It started off on a tremendous high, but as the season wore on, his flaws were slowly exposed. Jim Schwartz’s defense carried the Eagles to a 7-9 season. We need to see more creativity out of the offense in 2017.

25. Todd Bowles, Jets

After a strong debut season, Bowles botched the follow-up. He mishandled the Jets quarterback situation, let his star defensive players run wild in the locker room and has now been set up to fail in Year 3.

24. Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers

The start of Koetter’s head coaching career was rocky at best. His clock management wasn’t great, the defense had somehow gotten worse than it had been under Lovie Smith and Jameis Winston was not playing well. That all changed in the second half, and the Bucs finished 6-2 over the last two months. Still, we want to see it for a full season before we put Koetter any higher on the list.

23. Jim Caldwell, Lions

Caldwell gets the blame whenever the Lions lose — sometimes deservedly so — but the team has made the playoffs in two of his three seasons in charge. That has to count for something, even if his coordinators deserve a lot of the credit.

22. Mike Mularkey, Titans

OK, so maybe I was wrong about Mularkey, whose “Exotic Smashmouth” offense wasn’t so bad after all. Does it play to the strengths of his emerging star quarterback Marcus Mariota? Probably not, but the Titans offense played far better than anyone could have reasonably expected.

21. Ben McAdoo, Giants

McAdoo might be a little too high on this list. Sure, the Giants made the playoffs in his first season in charge, but the defense carried the team to its 11-5 record. McAdoo’s offense must be better in 2017 if the team is going to make it back to the postseason. With the weapons McAdoo has at his disposal, he has not excuses for it not to.

20. Hue Jackson, Browns

The Browns were bad in Year 1 of the Hue Jackson era. Really bad. But that was to be expected given the lack of talent on the roster. He has a little more to work with in Year 2, and I fully expect Cleveland to be competitive in every game this season. Semi-bold prediction: Jackson will take advantage of the rebuilt offensive line and turn the offense into a top-20 unit — no matter who plays quarterback.

19. Jack Del Rio, Raiders

Del Rio completely shed the “conservative” label in 2016 with a number of gutsy decisions late in games. Still, we need to see more out of his defense before we can place him any higher on this list. The Raiders defense — and Derek Carr’s injury — held the team back from true contention in 2016. If it happens again in 2017, Oakland may start to think about finding a replacement who can finish off the job Del Rio started.

18. Chuck Pagano, Colts

Against all odds, Pagano managed to outlast former GM Ryan Grigson and keep his job in Indy. The players love him, and Pagano’s defenses have overachieved at times, but anything less than a playoff berth in 2017 will likely end his time as Colts head coach.

17. Marvin Lewis, Bengals

Lewis is difficult to evaluate as a head coach. The Bengals are always a solid-to-good team, but much of the team’s success can be attributed to its former coordinators. Three have gone on to be head coaches (Jay Gruden, Mike Zimmer and Hue Jackson). After losing all three, the Bengals missed out on the playoffs for the first time in five seasons, so you have to ask if Lewis is really the reason the team has been so successful over the last half-decade.

16. Jason Garrett, Cowboys

Even after a 13-3 season, I still view Garrett as a replacement-level head coach, so the 16th spot on this list is appropriate. Give him the best offensive line in football, a stud running back, a smart, poised rookie quarterback and a good group of receivers, and, sure, he’ll give you good results. But what average coach wouldn’t? Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is the true star of this coaching staff. That man performs minor miracles every season.

15. John Fox, Bears

Fox is boring and overly conservative but he’s won everywhere he’s been. Well, he hasn’t won in Chicago yet, but he hasn’t really been given a team capable of winning over the first two years of his tenure. The roster is better this season, so no more excuses. This could be Fox’s last season as a head coach if he can’t turn it around.

14. Adam Gase, Dolphins

I really wanted to put Gase in my top-10 but decided against it because of the whole sample size issue. Still, his debut season in Miami was everything I expected it to be. He got the most out of Ryan Tannehill, made Jay Ajayi into a star and managed to overcome a terrible start to the season. Gase’s future is bright.

13. Bill O’Brien, Texans

Welp, the Brock Osweiler signing was a disaster. We won’t put that all on O’Brien, though. He didn’t even get to meet the guy before the Texans handed him a $72 million deal. And despite another season of god awful quarterback play, O’Brien managed to get Houston back to the postseason — and he won a playoff game this time. OK, so the AFC South is terrible and he beat Connor Cook, but it still counts!

12. Jay Gruden, Redskins

Gruden does not get nearly enough credit for keeping this dysfunctional franchise afloat these last few years. He turned Kirk Cousins into a franchise quarterback (that’s the perception, at least) thanks to one of the best offensive schemes in the league. If the defense had been even league average, Gruden would have some playoff wins under his belt.

11. Dan Quinn, Falcons

Quinn deserves a ton of credit for turning around the Falcons defense late in the season, but before we can put him in the top-10, we need to see him without Kyle Shanahan, who led one of the best offenses in NFL history.

10. Ron Rivera, Panthers

We’ll forgive Rivera’s down year in 2016. The Panthers had little-to-no depth and were hit hard by injuries. Rivera’s late-game management is still an issue, but he’s done an excellent job of building a program and developing young players.

9. Mike Zimmer, Vikings

The 2016 was one to forget for Zimmer and the Vikings. It started off so well, as they got off to a 6-0 start. Then it all imploded, which falls on Zimmer. His offensive coordinator retired and Zimmer had to undergo several eye surgeries. It was a total disaster, but Zimmer still deserves a lot of credit for developing one of the nastiest defenses in the league.

8. Sean Payton, Saints

Being an offensive genius only gets you so far. Sure, the Saints offense is atop the league’s statistical rankings every year, but they always seem to fall in the middle of the standings. Payton’s teams have gone 7-9 three consecutive seasons. His failure to find the right defensive coordinator is the reason why.

7. Bruce Arians, Cardinals

The 2016 was Arians’ fifth as a head coach; it was his first without a winning record. He’s coming off a massively disappointing season but remains one of the best coaches in the game thanks to a combination of ability to motivate and a creative playbook that takes advantage his team’s strengths.

6. John Harbaugh, Ravens

The Ravens’ recent struggles — the team has missed the playoffs three out of the last four seasons — falls on the front office and its inability to replenish an aging defense. Harbaugh has done his best to keep this team competitive in the mean time. His seat is heating up and another failed season could spell the end of his time in Baltimore, but there will be plenty of teams waiting to snatch him up if that happens.

5. Andy Reid, Chiefs

After all these years, Reid still doesn’t know how to manage a clock, but that’s really his only weakness as a coach. He continues to produce good offenses and his teams are always in the playoff race come December. Big Red does not get nearly enough credit for what he’s done in Kansas City. He is undoubtedly a top-five coach in this league.

4. Mike Tomlin, Steelers

Tomlin could easily be third on this list. The 45-year-old is a tremendous motivator and gets his team to the postseason every year. He gets criticism for the Steelers’ lackluster defense, but he really hasn’t had much influence over the scheme before this upcoming season. If the defense falters again, Tomlin deserves the blame.

3. Mike McCarthy, Packers

McCarthy is the new Andy Reid. He’s built up quite the program in Green Bay. His game management leaves a lot to be desired, but the Packers would not find themselves in those high-stake postseason games if not for McCarthy’s coaching ability. He doesn’t get nearly enough credit for Aaron Rodgers development. Go back and watch some footage of Rodgers at Cal. He’s a completely different quarterback.

2. Pete Carroll, Seahawks

Every season we get reports of turmoil in the Seahawks locker room, but it never seems to stop Seattle from winning ball games. Carroll is the reason why. His relentless optimism keeps this team together and in seemingly every game it has played since he took over.

1. Bill Belichick, Patriots

Do I need to waste your time explaining why Belichick tops this list? He earned his fifth ring with a coaching masterpiece in Super Bowl LI and cemented his status as the greatest coach in NFL history.