Jaylen Brown was the third overall pick for the Celtics and has turned into a solid wing. After a disappointing third season, can he still become more?

Last season was kind of a mess for Boston. Their young players seemed to regress, or at least failed to grow in the way fans had hoped. Gordon Hayward failed to return to his All-Star form and basically, no one on the team seemed to be anything approaching happy. Much of the blame for this fell on Kyrie Irving, who appeared uneasy as a leader even though being one was what he had hoped for upon requesting a trade from Cleveland in 2017. The young core that had shown such promise in the playoffs the year before wilted under his harsh eyes and now, even though that same young core, minus Terry Rozier, is still the heart of this Celtics team moving forward, it’s hard to know what to expect from them. Is it really wise to prize a nearly magical playoff run over another full season’s worth of evidence?

Jaylen Brown was the third overall pick in what initially appeared to be a fairly weak 2016 Draft. But the Celtics had the luxury of being an already good team, a team not in need of a franchise changer, just a competent wing with the potential to become something more. That’s what Brown looked like, though now, following his third season it’s not clear what the future holds. In those 2018 Playoffs, Brown was often the best Celtic on the floor, starting at shooting guard, scoring reliably and playing great perimeter defense, stymying the efforts of whoever was trying to drive on him or break free from his tendrils for an open shot. It brought to mind the efforts of a young Kawhi Leonard — a young role player on an already good team who was fulfilling their duty and looked just about ready to ably take on more responsibilities. Neither player was great at creating their own offense at this young age but could find ways to score by cutting and posting up in the corner all while showing themselves to be versatile defenders. It was not a perfect comparison, though the similarities were more than superficial.

However, Brown did not appear like a potential star last season. It’s not that he got worse, but signs of future greatness seemed rarer, and there were skills that we had not seen before. His numbers were not far off from what they had been the year before, but his third season was defined by a perilous uncertainty role-wise, as he started nineteen of twenty games before moving to the bench for the rest of the year until the playoffs when he was again reintegrated into the starting lineup. Coach Brad Stevens was torn between twin impulses to win now and to develop the young players who had given him so much the previous year and in the end, neither goal was achieved.

Entering year four, it’s harder to project what Brown’s future holds than it was last year. Instead of more data providing clarity, it muddies things since so much of what we know appears to contradict itself. Is Brown a cornerstone for the Celtics moving forward or no more than a solid wing who can be replaced relatively easily moving forward? This question seems even more pointed for Boston considering Brown’s rookie contract will expire after this season, making him a restricted free agent. Just how much will they be willing to invest in a young player who is good, but may not turn out to be much more than that?

Perhaps it’s a bit unfair, though as a player gets older, what once appeared to just be unrealized potential, holes that will get filled out in time, start looking more and more like inherent flaws that just aren’t going away. Their ceiling remains high, though the likelihood of them reaching it feels more like a fantasy than a potential reality. Sure, shades of someone like Kawhi may remain but clinging onto those is a sure path to disappointment. It’s more prudent to think, well, maybe he can be our own Robert Covington or Danny Green. If this sounds disappointing that says more about the outsized expectations we place upon top picks than Jaylen Brown.

It is very easy to see where he can improve. The question is just whether or not such changes are probable or not. The biggest question marks for Brown come on offense. He scores the majority of points from spot-ups and transition opportunities which places an inherent cap on how potent of an offensive force he can be since one can only get so many of those opportunities per game. While he’s good in these situations, it also speaks to a lack of skill at creating baskets for himself in the half-court. It may be a skill he can develop, though any optimism, especially in light of his less than stellar ball handling, should be very measured. He has also not shown an ability to create for others. Per a Max Carlin piece at Celtics Blog, Brown found himself ranking in the 28th percentile in assist percentage and in the fifth percentile of assist rate to usage rate ratio among wings last season. While Brown is clearly an intelligent man, it appears that his decision making on the court needs improvement.

This season, with expectations lower for the Celtics and the gaze of Kyrie Irving gone, promises to reveal much about Boston’s young players, including Jaylen Brown. By the time April arrives, it is very likely that fans will have a much better picture of who Brown is and could be moving forward. It’s just tricky, and a tad foolish, to make any concrete pronouncements considering how young he is and the nature of player progress which is often far from linear or logical. Of course, if things do not appear much clearer by the end of this next season, that may be an answer in itself.