Time to Consolidate the Left and Win Khaled Follow Jan 13 · 13 min read

Over the course of a few weeks in February, in a series of small contests in a handful of states, the next American president will be decided. If you, like me, would prefer a future free of Donald Trump and all that he implies, I hope that you would be willing to consider this proposal. We have a choice to make right now; we can nominate Joe Biden or we can, through thoughtful deliberation, nominate somebody able to beat Trump — Bernie Sanders.

Biden Cannot Be The Nominee

There are many reasons to reject Joe Biden, most critically the fact that Biden will lose to Trump. Yes, Biden polls well now, but this will mean nothing in a general election race. The problem is that Biden is unfit to mount the type of general election campaign required to translate his polling into a win. He cannot rally the base, debate Donald Trump, and defend himself against incessant attacks. Biden’s record, his physical fitness, his mental acuity and his personal scandals make his failure a near certainty.

Joe Biden is irrefutably suffering from sharp cognitive decline. All you have to do is watch an interview with Biden from a decade ago and compare it with the Biden of today, he is a shell of his former self, unable to remember facts and names, unable to maintain the attention needed to complete a sentence, and is unable to hold his temper — insulting citizens who dare to ask him any challenging questions and telling them to go vote for Trump. He is carrying with him a lifetime of being on the wrong side of every political issue that has devastated people’s lives: war, trade agreements, benefit cuts, corporate deregulation. Accusations of scandal around influence peddling and personal corruption and his inability to coherently push back against them will leave voters with a bitter taste in their mouth.

There Can Only be One

Biden must be defeated so that Trump can be defeated. This much should be absolutely clear in everybody’s mind and must be our North star. This requires all of us, no matter what candidate you support, to first realize a simple and somewhat uncomfortable truth: Absent a near-term consolidation around a single candidate Biden will most certainly be the nominee. The statistics around this are overwhelming.

“Unity” and Delegate Pooling

Winning the nomination can be done in two ways. First, earn the trust of voters, excite them with your ideas and campaign, and win enough delegates from the primary races and gain an outright majority. If no candidate manages to pass the threshold (which happens when there are more than two candidates) then it goes to a contested convention where almost a thousand Democratic Party insiders would essentially dictate the outcome. This should clarify why consolidation in the progressively side of the race is so essential; establishment Democrats are hostile to a progressive agenda and giving them power means capitulating to a pro-corporate agenda.

There are some people who have advanced the idea of “delegate pooling” between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as a means of overcoming the fragmentation in the race. Those advancing this hypothesis, whether they are aware of it or not, are effectively suggesting that we accept certain loss to Biden in favor of maintaining the concept of “unity” between the Warren and Bernie camps. The truth is that this strategy cannot deliver an actual win. Losing while “united” still means losing; it still means a Biden nomination; it still means a Trump presidency. Our goal should be, above all else, to do everything we can to maximize our chance at winning. The stakes are simply too high.

Advancing this strategy will necessarily produce a contested convention. This fact cannot be reconciled with any goal of unity and harmony. Every little bit of acrimony that the unity promoters might fear at this point will be amplified a hundred times over in a contested convention. This will happen on a national stage, in an incredibly public way, that will genuinely damage the Democratic party and likely devastate the nominee’s ability to beat Trump. It will also leave the bases of the other nominees embittered and resentful. Anybody betting on a second ballot is not working towards unity they are, whether they are aware of it or not, delaying and massively amplifying a fracture in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. THIS IS NOT HOW WE WIN.

The Math Doesn’t Even Work

The delegate pooling proposal rests on a simple hypothesis: when it’s all said and done an imagined alliance between Warren and Bernie with some fraction of the Super Delegates will add up to more than the combination of Biden, Buttigieg and their fraction of the Super Delegates. All current evidence points to the probability of this occurring approaching zero. The people advancing this scheme are either oblivious to this fact or are trying to hide it. Nobody who has proposed delegate pooling has discussed the actual math of how it would work out to deliver an actual win.

[Update: The numbers below have been updated to reflect the changes in the race, which as I actually predicted 3 weeks ago would make the insanity of the “unity” argument more stark. The original numbers are preserved at the end of this document. During the past three weeks Bernie’s projected delegate haul and odds of winning a majority have increased dramatically and Warren’s projected delegate haul has decreased dramatically and her odds of winning a majority has become essentially zero]

The easiest way to illustrate how wild this strategy happens to be is to look at the current forecasts and add up the numbers. In the nominal case, where nobody drops out, we immediately see that Biden+Buttigieg hits the first ballot threshold and Sanders+Warren will be more than 240 delegates behind them. One can imagine complex permutations where the numbers shift, but given the current trajectory of the Warren campaign, the picture is likely to be worse off [Note: This statement has been proven true]

So given the nominal case, a Bernie+Warren pool would need an insane 81% of the SuperDelegates to get them past the finish line, while Biden+Buttigieg would need only 49%. The idea that Establishment Democrats would be twisting each other’s arms, instigate chaos in the convention, just so they solve a much harder delegate path for the sake of Warren or Bernie as opposed to a Establishment Democrat like Biden is a delusion that no rational person would abide.

The Better Play

Contrast the scenario advanced by the delegate pooling prophets with the case for a unified candidate front. The odds of winning first ballot has been quantified and for some the numbers are quite robust. Here are the current odds as calculated by 538’s model’s. [Update: Warren’s odds have been halved in the past 3 weeks]

Odds of candidate winning a majority of the delegates on the first ballot

A few days ahead of Iowa, Bernie has a 1 in 3 chance of hitting a majority on the first ballot — those odds are infinitely better than the near zero percent chance that the delegate pooling proposal is pitching. If Bernie wins Iowa, the projections from 3 weeks ago before the dramatic surge already put his odds of winning a majority jumping up to 61%. Warren, on the other hand, is already at 6% and if she fails to win Iowa, has no path to any meaningful vote capture.

An additional wrinkle is that if Warren falters early on as is currently projected, the 15% primary rule could doom the campaign to delegate impotence. The 460 delegates forecasted in the current model will rapidly shrink. The effects of the 15% rule are stark and unforgiving as illustrated by the the past races.

Given the effects of the 15% rule, if Warren is still in the race on Super Tuesday despite early losses, then progressives choosing to support her campaign would likely be throwing their votes away with no delegates gained. In that case a vote for Warren would be nothing more than a vote to increase Biden’s chances. THIS IS NOT HOW WE WIN

Why Warren Will Want to Stay In

It would seem to anybody that can read basic numbers that a Warren campaign would see the writing on the wall after IA or NH and close shop; but they won’t. The Warren campaign is under no illusion that their candidate will be able to hit the majority delegate threshold on the first ballot. Given the current trajectory and the effects of the probable losses in IA and NH the possibility that they hit even a tenth of the needed delegates quickly disappears. Despite these facts, the campaign will try to keep her in the race against all odds. This is because, unsurprisingly, they want their candidate to stay relevant and are willing to take a huge risk to achieve that goal. The gamble is simple: stay in the race, fragment the vote, force a contested convention, and then somehow, through acquiescence of Bernie’s base and deals with SuperDelegates, emerge from the ashes as the candidate.

The odds of this gamble working out are incredibly small and will get smaller as the race progresses. On the other hand, the odds of this gamble causing acrimony within the party, on a national stage, in a way that damages the nominee in the general, are significant. Finally, the odds of this gamble causing the progressive wing of the Democratic party to disintegrate are astronomical.

It’s not hard to understand why this would be so devastating for any progressive alliance. Imagine the Warren campaign, having failed to secure a meaningful delegate haul, seeking to get the nomination by negotiating with the bosses of the Democratic party. To do this they will have to ask that Bernie’s supporters, who have given everything; time, money and effort to get Bernie elected, with significant success, to then collectively concede to a different candidate with a fraction of the delegates. Whether we like it or not “unity” will not be the result of this process. This strategy risks absolute disaster in exchange for a sliver of a chance to make Warren the brokered nominee.

The Warren campaign has been quite clear about this strategy. With every passing day a single message is repeated over and over from the Warren camp — Warren can unify the different factions of the Democratic party. This will be naturally coupled with a propaganda campaign to paint Bernie as divisive and polarizing — a process that will be ugly and quite toxic [Note: Since I originally wrote this piece 3 weeks ago, all of this has come to pass]. These messages are not meant for the Democratic primary voter, they are messages for the power brokers of the party who may want to minimize the absolute shit show that will be a contested convention.

So what we have seen is a Warren campaign increasingly unconcerned with winning new voters (by talking about issues) but rather one talking past them, directed at the managers of the Democratic party. The message to the managers is simple: even though they didn’t choose Warren, enough voters will begrudgingly settle for Warren without making too much of a fuss. The obvious absurdity of this claim will increase as the primary race heats up, becomes more contentious and people’s commitments harden.

Nobody should be surprised that a presidential primary candidate wants to maximize her chances of winning (or even having negotiating power to advance her political ambitions). Nobody should be surprised that campaign will do their job and try to get the candidate elected at all costs (and also keep the campaign going in order to keep their checks coming in). It’s not surprising that outside consultants making a ton of money off the campaign will want it to keep going so they can keep milking the campaign of the contributions of their donors even if their is no hope. It is our job as voters to assess whether the campaign’s choices are what we actually want.

Warren has for a long time positioned herself as a champion of people who will fight corruption in the establishment. But one consequence of her strategy of forcing a contested convention is that it largely eliminates the voice of the primary voters and hands the SuperDelegates immense power to set any agenda they wish. To win on the second ballot, Warren’s campaign would need to go around and talk to the most deeply cynical of Democratic Party operatives and try to gain their votes; what concessions on policy and rhetoric would be demanded. No people’s champion will likely emerge out of that process. THIS IS NOT HOW WE WIN.

HOW WE WIN. The nominee would be emerging from this fight at the last hour of the primary a deeply damaged candidate with a completely fractured party. Instead of moving from the primary with the momentum of the race and the energy of other grassroots campaigns around them, the candidate will be starting from an incredibly weak position. In Warren’s case, it’s absolutely certain that Trump and the GOP would, quite accurately, paint her as a third place finisher that had to get the “corrupt” Democratic politicians to crown her as the nominee. THIS IS NOT HOW WE WIN.

So this strategy, already an absurd longshot, would if it works, deliver an ideologically compromised candidate that is unlikely to beat Trump. Unlike Bernie who leads Trump by 2.5pts in national polling, Warren is currently polling behind Trump. Overcoming her polling position and her electoral vulnerabilities will be orders of magnitude harder in the aftermath of this dangerous strategy. THIS IS NOT HOW WE WIN.

Bernie is the Right Choice

For anybody concerned with maximizing the chances of beating Trump there is no better candidate to support, as quickly as possible, than Bernie Sanders. Bernie is best positioned to both beat Trump in the general election, but more critically in the short-term, he is the ONLY candidate that we should choose to get behind.

Bernie’s campaign plan is simple and brutally effective. A focus on an agenda that addresses the most pressing concerns of the vast majority of Americans, an energized campaign talking to hundreds of thousands of Americans across the country and delivering a message of solidarity and an unprecedented volunteer effort focused on voter mobilization and turnout will earn Bernie Sanders the majority of the voters on the first ballot. Bernie would walk into the General Election having earned his nomination through a incredible demonstration of campaign prowess while avoiding a damaging contested convention. This would be doubly impressive since Bernie would have done this against the best efforts of the deeply unpopular Democratic party which will certainly make him more popular in the general. Bernie is already ahead of Trump in the polls, has the highest favorability numbers of anyone in the race, is the only one who has raised more money from individual donors than Trump (even from active service members) and when he wins on the first ballot will be able to carry the momentum of the primary into the general, build on it, and absolutely trounce Trump. THIS IS HOW WE WIN.

We already know that the odds of this happening are in our favor. By winning IA, Bernie will be the overwhelming favorite (>60%) to succeed. But for that to translate into a win, undecided primary voters and progressive supporters of other candidates, most critically Elizabeth Warren, would need to support Bernie’s candidacy as soon as possible. When we coalesce around Bernie Sanders we will transform this primary into a clear 2-person race: Bernie vs Biden; hope vs resignation; A bright future vs a depressing past. THIS IS HOW WE WIN.

Bernie has already demonstrated he is an infinitely more effective campaigner than Biden. Bernie has maintained a steady and uninterrupted rise in the polls since October to this point finally getting to the position of leading in 3 out of the 4 early primary states. Biden has been largely absent from the campaign trail making fewer and fewer appearances and his numbers are flat, unable to gain any new support in months. Bernie holds rallies of tens of thousands of people, Biden can’t get 100 people into a diner. Bernie is a sharp and enthusiastic debater, whereas Biden is perpetually lost and confused. Bernie’s record of standing with everyday people stands in stark opposition to every cynical capitulation that Biden chose to make to corporations and the war machine. Bernie and his energetic campaign will run circles around Biden in a head to head match-up. THIS IS HOW WE WIN

Biden’s main argument for the nomination is one of electability. Given the media’s inability to discuss his obvious shortcomings, the most effective way to change that perception is to beat Biden in as many early primary races as possible by as wide a margin as possible. This is not hypothetical, every successful primary race in recent memory has hinged on candidates being able to demonstrate electoral success early and build momentum. As people consolidate around Sanders and momentum builds, the campaign will naturally grow: its ability to raise money through small dollar donations, it’s volunteer efforts, and its ability to make clear distinctions between the two candidates also grows. This will only accelerate the process of piercing Biden’s electability bubble and getting more voters on board. THIS IS HOW WE WIN

The people with the power to do this are the primary voters who will hopefully be making a sober assessment of the stakes, the odds and most importantly the opportunities. It cannot be emphasized enough that this represent a real concession on the part of people who currently support other candidates. What is being proposed here is no small matter since it asks a lot and it provides no absolute guarantee of success. But what it offers is the best chance, by a long shot, to stop the occurrence of a more deranged second Trump term and the real possibility of a bright future where people feel like they have a role in shaping their destiny.

In the end, this will come down to each person’s decision, but this is the time for making choices. We either exercise a decision to coalesce around Bernie and win or we allow the cruelty of the odds to doom us to failure. What I hope is that progressives from every stripe and all those that care deeply about changing the direction of this country consider the case I presented. I then ask you to take an honest look at the message of the Bernie Sanders campaign and consider whether you can see yourself as part of this movement as we fight together to bring desperately needed change to this country.

Outdated 538 Models from early January