Consumer confidence in Mexico, having stalled over the past two to three quarters, saw a sudden surge in June, reaching its highest level since August 2013. The sharp jump was quite a surprise, materialising in the wake of relatively weak growth data this year and the related deterioration in labour market indicators.

One explanation could be the low inflation outlook, which has likely also helped consumer spending (despite low wage growth). However, July numbers show that the June release was out of trend and that consumer confidence has generally been flat this year at slightly above 92.



"There are little reasons to forecast a significant jump in confidence unless the economy grows above trend and labour market indicators - including wages - improve meaningfully. As a result, the consumer confidence is expected to tick up to 92.7 in August while the seasonally adjusted index should rise to 91.8", says Societe Generale.