The Updated Draft Order Is More Than Just A Queue

Creating a compelling 2019 NFL Mock Draft requires two separate modes of thinking: 1) take it one draft pick at a time and just give each pro team the top draft prospect at a position of need, and 2) look at the round (or even draft) as a whole to recognize where the positional values will be, and when positional runs should take place.

This article is dealing with that second strategy: where is the value, and when can we expect runs at certain positions? That strategy is what will win us our mock draft contests.

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Using the updated 2019 NFL Draft order (as lovingly provided to us by the good folks over at Tankathon) here is what I see the first round positional runs looking like.

Predicting Positional Runs in the 2019 NFL Draft

Picks 2-6: Offensive Tackle

The Cardinals, Jets, and Bills are currently slated to pick 2, 4, 6, and all four teams have some very strong similarities. These teams all invested an early first round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft to select Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold to be their QB of the future. Those teams would be wise to protect those investments. The Giants, at pick 5, don’t have a rookie signal caller, but suffer from horrendous O-line play as well.

All four teams are also struggling mightily on offense as well, ranking 23rd, 29th, 31st, and 32nd in the league in total and passing yards. Some of this can be chalked up to QB play, but anyone who has watched any of these teams play know that the main culprit is that these teams all suffer from horrible offensive line play, with all four teams ranking in the bottom-10 of PFFs Offensive Line Rankings.

With the 2019 NFL Draft being stronger than past years at the top of the Tackle class (according to some analysts) we can expect a run on OTs, featuring some combination of Jonah Willliams, David Edwards, Dalton Risner, and Greg Little to take place around picks 2-6.

Picks 5-8: Quarterback

There hasn’t been an NFL Draft since 2013 that hasn’t had a QB go in the top-3 picks, so I’m not about to bet against history and say that we get a repeat this year. But there’s a chance.

Even if Herbert and Haskins both decide to go pro instead of returning to school, both have enough holes in their games that it wouldn’t be a total shocker to see them slip out of the top-5, and it would be especially logical if a QB-needy team neglected to trade up for a signal caller. Considering the weakness of this year’s class and where the QB-needy teams are picking, we could see the QB run happen later than in most years.

Three teams with big question marks (or barf emojis) at the QB position are the Giants, Buccaneers, and Jaguars, who pick 5, 7, 8 in the 2019 NFL Draft. Even if none of the top QBs are worthy of an early first round pick, positional value could push these guys up into that range. Any of Justin Herbert, Dwayne Haskins, Will Grier, Drew Lock, and Daniel Jones could all look to be drafted by pick 8.

Picks 15-18: Wide Receiver

The 2019 class of Wide Receivers is shaping up to be one of the most dynamic classes since the epic class of 2014. There’s less blue chip talent at the top, but this is looking to be an incredibly deep class of big, athletic WR1-type players. This is good, because there are plenty of teams in the middle of the round who have a need at the position.

The Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, and Titans all pick one after the other, and all have question marks at the position at least, and blood-curdling screams for help at the worst. Any of these teams could have their eye on adding a big-bodied alpha WR on the outside (or possibly A.J. Brown in the slot). And I think the list of potential first round WRs is deep.

N’Keal Harry, D.K. Metcalf, Kelvin Harmon, Hakeem Butler, A.J. Brown, Riley Ridley, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Collin Johnson, Deebo Samuel, and Marquise Brown have all popped up as first rounders in multiple 2019 NFL mock drafts. Depending on the specific holes and positional preferences for each of those NFL teams, we could see some intense competition for this batch of WRs in the middle of the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft.

*updated 11/19/18

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