The number of House Democrats opposing Nancy Pelosi’s bid for House speaker has been fluctuating over the past few weeks.

A total of 16 Democrats are on a letter signaling their opposition to Pelosi, the intent of which is to demonstrate she doesn’t have the 218 votes to be speaker and encourage another person to challenge her.

Tim Ryan (D-OH)

Seth Moulton (D-MA)

Kathleen Rice (D-NY)

Ed Perlmutter (D-CO)

Kurt Schrader (D-OR)

Filemon Vela Jr. (D-TX)

Stephen Lynch (D-MA)

Bill Foster (D-IL)

Linda Sanchez (D-CA)

Jim Cooper (D-TN)

Rep.-elect Jeff Van Drew (D-NJ)

Rep.-elect Joe Cunningham (D-SC)

Rep.-elect Max Rose (D-NY)

Rep.-elect Anthony Brindisi (D-NY)

Rep.-elect Gil Cisneros (D-CA)

Rep.-elect Ben McAdams (D-UT)

If Pelosi intends to win a majority with only Democratic votes, she can lose 16 votes and still win. That could grow to 17 if Democrat TJ Cox wins a tight race over Rep. David Valadao in California. (If Cox wins, it would be the 40th seat Democrats have flipped.)

Even though Democrats had a sweeping win, Pelosi’s vote-whipping operation is in full swing.

And there are other committed no’s who aren’t on the letter. Newly elected members Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), Jason Crow (D-CO), and Conor Lamb (D-PA) have not yet signed the letter but have publicly committed to vote against Pelosi on the all-important January 3 floor vote.

“I think we need new voices in Congress at all levels, from all the new members who are going to be arriving to the highest levels,” Spanberger told Vox in a recent interview. “I think foundationally, that’s pretty important.”

Crow, an Army veteran who recently flipped a Colorado congressional district blue, also reiterated he’s an unequivocal no to Pelosi.

“Nothing’s changed,” he told Vox during the first week of new member orientation. “I know that’s a shock to a lot of people in DC that nothing’s changed. My position is pretty clear on it, I’m going to keep my promise.”

At a press conference before Thanksgiving, Pelosi told reporters she was confident she could win over Democratic holdouts.

“I intend to win the speakership with Democratic votes,” she added. “I have overwhelming support in my caucus to be speaker of the House.”

And other freshman members who publicly said they wouldn’t vote for Pelosi on the campaign trail seem to be

Pelosi has no challenger

For a few days, it appeared Pelosi might have a challenger in Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH), after a vocal group of House Democrats who want Pelosi to step aside ramped up their calls for new leadership.

But Fudge, a 66-year-old, six-term Congress member from the Cleveland region and a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, threw her support behind Pelosi after the Democratic leader named Fudge the chair of the newly reinstated House Administration Subcommittee on Elections, which was previously disbanded in 2013.

“I am now confident that we will move forward together and that the 117th Congress will be a Congress of which we can all be proud,” Fudge said in a statement. “I now join my colleagues in support of the leadership team of Pelosi, [Steny] Hoyer and [James] Clyburn.”

Pelosi has been making deals with some members who initially opposed her, including Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY), who took his name off the letter and backed Pelosi after she agreed to work on lowering the eligibility age for Medicare — an issue Higgins has worked on for years. Another Democrat, Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts, recently told a local TV station he’d back Pelosi during the January 3 floor vote, rather than vote for a Republican.

Pelosi typically has had a challenger during past caucus votes to chose the Democratic leader but has prevailed each time. She has openly welcomed other people to jump in, something she repeated recently.

“Come on in, the water is warm,” Pelosi told reporters a few weeks ago.

But people have been hesitant to step forward. Since Fudge reversed her stance, there have been no mentions of a second potential Pelosi challenger.

“The dynamic she has built over her 16 years as leader has made it very difficult for people to feel like they can throw their hat in the ring,” Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-NY), a vocal member of the anti-Pelosi group told reporters recently. “The reason why it’s going to be tough to run against someone who’s been in power for 16 years is that person’s going to be able to harness all the power at the top and make it difficult for people to step up.”