National No Change in House Ballot Nation on right track is up, tax reform approval is down

West Long Branch, NJ – Democrats hold a 7 point lead over Republicans in the generic House ballot, which is basically the same as the 8 point lead they held in a Monmouth University Poll taken in late April. Opinion that the country is on the right track has increased by 7 points but is still in the minority. On the other hand, approval of the tax reform package passed by Congress at the end of last year has slipped by 6 points. In other poll findings, the public narrowly agrees with continuing the Mueller probe.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives was held today, 48% of registered voters say they would support or lean toward supporting the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 41% who would vote for the Republican. This is similar to the 49% to 41% edge Democrats held six weeks ago in Monmouth’s polling.

The poll also finds that 34% of the public approve of the tax reform plan passed by Congress last December and 41% disapprove. Another 24% are not sure how they feel. These results have shifted in the past six weeks. Approval is down 6 points from 40% in late April and disapproval is down 3 points from 44%. The number who give no opinion on the plan has risen 8 points from 16%. Polls earlier this year had shown a more evenly divided public – 41% approve to 42% disapprove in March and 44% approve to 44% disapprove in January – with a smaller percentage of undecided opinion.

“Public opinion on the Republican lawmakers’ signature accomplishment has never been positive, but potentially growing uncertainty about how American taxpayers will be affected does not seem to be helping the GOP’s prospects for November,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Just 19% approve of the job Congress is doing overall, while two-thirds (67%) disapprove. This result is pretty much in line with polling over the past year, including a 17% approve to 71% disapprove rating in April. Republicans (30%) are only somewhat more likely than Democrats (13%) and independents (16%) to give a positive review of Congressional job performance.

One small bright spot in the poll is an increase in opinion that the country is heading in the right direction. Americans holding this opinion are still in the minority at 40%, but this is an increase from 33% who said the same in April. In fact the current result marks the first time that this metric has hit the 40% mark in Monmouth’s national polling going back to 2013. On the other hand, a majority (53%) still say that things have gotten off on the wrong track (compared with 58% who said the same in April).

The Monmouth University Poll also asked about the special counsel’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible links to the Trump campaign. More Americans (52%) support continuing the Russia probe than say it should be ended (45%). This result is statistically similar to public opinion in April which stood at 54% for continuing the investigation and 43% for wrapping it up. Just under a year ago, 62% supported continuing the Mueller probe and only 33% said it should end. It is also worth noting that this poll was conducted prior to the release of an internal report on the Justice Department’s conduct in the Hillary Clinton email investigation and the revocation of Paul Manafort’s bail in charges that arose from the current inquiry, both of which could have an impact on public opinion.

“The differences aren’t large from April’s results, but this does mark the fourth consecutive poll where the public opinion gap between continuing the Mueller probe and ending it has narrowed,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from June 12 to 13, 2018 with 806 adults in the United States. The results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1 previously released.]

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing? TREND: June

2018 April

2018 March

2018 Jan.

2018 Dec.

2017 Sept.

2017 Aug.

2017 July

2017 May

2017 March

2017 Jan.

2017 Approve 19% 17% 18% 21% 16% 17% 18% 19% 19% 25% 23% Disapprove 67% 71% 72% 68% 65% 69% 69% 70% 68% 59% 66% (VOL) No opinion 14% 12% 11% 11% 19% 15% 13% 11% 13% 16% 11% (n) (806) (803) (803) (806) (806) (1,009) (805) (800) (1,002) (801) (801) TREND: Continued Sept.

2016* Aug.

2016* June

2016* March

2016 Jan.

2016 Dec.

2015 Oct.

2015 Sept.

2015 Aug.

2015 July

2015 June

2015 April

2015 Jan.

2015 Dec.

2014 July

2013 Approve 15% 14% 17% 22% 17% 16% 17% 19% 18% 18% 19% 21% 18% 17% 14% Disapprove 77% 78% 76% 68% 73% 73% 71% 71% 72% 69% 71% 67% 70% 73% 76% (VOL) No opinion 8% 9% 7% 10% 10% 10% 12% 11% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 11% 10% (n) (802) (803) (803) (1,008) (1,003) (1,006) (1,012) (1,009) (1,203) (1,001) (1,002) (1,005) (1,003) (1,008) (1,012) * Registered voters

3. Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? TREND: June

2018 April

2018 March

2018 Jan.

2018 Dec.

2017 Aug.

2017 May

2017 March

2017 Jan.

2017 Right direction 40% 33% 31% 37% 24% 32% 31% 35% 29% Wrong track 53% 58% 61% 57% 66% 58% 61% 56% 65% (VOL) Depends 3% 5% 6% 3% 7% 4% 5% 4% 4% (VOL) Don’t know 3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 5% 3% 5% 2% (n) (806) (803) (803) (806) (806) (805) (1,002) (801) (801) TREND: Continued Aug.

2016* Oct.

2015 July

2015 June

2015 April

2015 Dec.

2014 July

2013 Right direction 30% 24% 28% 23% 27% 23% 28% Wrong track 65% 66% 63% 68% 66% 69% 63% (VOL) Depends 2% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% (VOL) Don’t know 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% (n) (803) (1,012) (1,001) (1,002) (1,005) (1,008) (1,012) * Registered voters

[REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY, n=711, moe = +/-3.7%:]

4. If the election for U.S. Congress was held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in your district? [INCLUDING LEANERS. ITEMS WERE ROTATED] Registered voters June

2018 April

2018 March

2018 Jan.

2018 Dec.

2017 Republican 41% 41% 41% 45% 36% Democratic 48% 49% 50% 47% 51% (VOL) Other candidate 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% (VOL) Would not vote 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% (VOL) Don’t know 6% 7% 6% 4% 8% (n) (711) (681) (708) (711) (702)

[Q5-26 previously released.]

27. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December? [Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?] TREND: June

2018 April

2018 March

2018 Jan.

2018 Dec.

2017* Strongly approve 18% 18% 20% 24% 13% Somewhat approve 16% 22% 21% 20% 13% Somewhat disapprove 14% 15% 16% 13% 12% Strongly disapprove 27% 29% 26% 31% 35% (VOL) Don’t know 24% 16% 17% 13% 27% (n) (806) (803) (803) (806) (806) [*Question wording, in December 2017, was “Have you heard that the Senate and the House have passed tax reform bills and are now working on a final version, or haven’t you heard about this? If HEARD: Do you approve or disapprove of this tax reform plan?”]

28. A special counsel is currently conducting an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible links with the Trump campaign. Should the Russia investigation continue or should it end? TREND: June

2018 April

2018 March

2018 July

2017 May

2017* Continue 52% 54% 60% 62% 73% End 45% 43% 37% 33% 24% (VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% (n) (806) (803) (803) (800) (1,002) [* May’17 question was asked about the then-ongoing FBI investigation.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from June 12 to 13, 2018 with a national random sample of 806 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 403 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 403 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported 28% Republican 40% Independent 32% Democrat 49% Male 51% Female 32% 18-34 34% 35-54 34% 55+ 64% White 12% Black 16% Hispanic 8% Asian/Other 70% No degree 30% 4 year degree

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.

Download this Poll Report with crosstabs