Wednesday, June 30, 2010

GOP up in Wisconsin GOV

Republicans continue to hold a small advantage in the Wisconsin Governor's race. Scott Walker leads Tom Barrett 45-38 on PPP's newest survey, while Mark Neumann's edge over Barrett is 41-36.

Recent advertising in the race has had a clear impact on voter perceptions of the candidates, with Walker seeing an increase in his favorability while Barrett's negatives have climbed. When we polled the state in March 31% of voters had a favorable opinion of Walker while 27% viewed him unfavorably. His positive number has increased five points to 36% since then while his negative has gone up only a point to 28% for a +8 overall spread. Barrett's numbers have gone in the other direction. The number of voters seeing him in a positive light is basically unchanged, going from 29% to 28%. But his negatives have risen eight points from 22% to 30%, and his favorability is now a -2 spread.

One thing that can't be helping Barrett's prospects for keeping this office in the Democratic column is the continuing unpopularity of Jim Doyle. Only 28% of voters are happy with the job he's doing as Governor while 59% disapprove. Usually when voters are that unhappy with an incumbent they don't replace him with someone else of the same party.

Walker has a more unified party than Barrett at this point and is also winning independents. He gets 85% of the Republican vote to Barrett's 78% of the Democratic vote and has a 43-30 advantage with unaffiliated voters.

None of the candidates in this race are particularly well known yet- 36% of voters haven't formed an opinion about Walker and 42% don't have one about Barrett- so it could certainly shift as voters start tuning into the race more but for now the GOP is favored to take this office back.