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Despite a strong first half of the year, Shelby County’s new housing market appears to have hit a bump in the road in the 3rd quarter of the year with new home sales falling by 17%. During 2013’s third quarter the market saw just 197 new home sales compared to 2012’s third quarter with 238 new home sales. With the drop in sales and with builders continuing to try to balance unsold inventory1 levels, the market also saw a 14% drop in new home starts for the quarter with 199 new home starts in this year’s third quarter compared to 231 in last year’s third quarter. On a positive note, new home sales prices continue to outpace last year’s prices with 2013’s third quarter price of $267,400 being up 5% from 2012’s third quarter price of $253,882. Unsold inventory levels have remained relatively steady through out the year with the 3rd quarter being no exception. There were 883 houses in inventory as of 9/30/2013, compared to 882 houses as of 9/30/2012. The current unsold inventory accounts for 3.3 quarters, or 11.1 months, supply2 of new housing. At the end of last year’s third quarter, there were 4.5 quarters, or 11.7 months, supply of new housing. Regency Homes continues to be Shelby County’s top builder with 50 new home starts and 56 new home sales during this year’s third quarter.

Click here to download our complete 3rd Quarter analysis of new housing data for the most active zip codes in Memphis & Shelby County including new housing charts with trends for the past 10 years.

With Shelby County’s new housing market recovery steadily underway at the mid-year mark, we continue to see new home prices rise with this year’s 2nd quarter new home sale prices averaging $257,931 making this the highest 2nd quarter sale price we’ve seen since 2008 when the average new home sale price was $280,372.

This year’s average new home sale price is a 6% jump over 2012’s second quarter average price of $243,677. During this year’s second quarter we also saw new home sales jump by 17% with 260 new home sales compared to 223 sales during 2012’s second quarter.

This is the most new home sales we’ve seen since 2nd quarter 2010. New home starts remained steady with 269 starts during 2013’s second quarter unchanged from 269 starts during 2012’s second quarter. Regency Homes continues to be Shelby County’s top builder with 65 new home starts and 58 new home sales during this year’s second quarter.

With sales outpacing new home starts for the quarter, we saw a slight 2% drop in unsold inventory with 870 houses in inventory as of 6/30/2013, compared to 887 houses as of 6/30/2012. The current unsold inventory accounts for 3.3 quarters, or 11.1 months, supply of new housing. At the end of last year’s second quarter, there were 4 quarters, or 13.1 months, supply of new housing.

As the new housing market continues to push forward there is some growing concern among local builders over the current lot supply within Shelby County which has continued to dwindle over the last 7 years slowly pushing up lot prices and in turn continuing to push up new home prices affecting the affordability of new homes in the county. At the end of this year’s second quarter lot prices averaged $43,079 up 13% from year-end 2012’s average lot price of $38,285. This is something builders will continue to keep a close eye on going forward. With increasing lot prices and the dwindling supply, we will likely see new home prices continue to rise through out the remainder of the year.

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