Stanford's Rose Bowl path begins with Oregon State

By Jon Wilner jwilner@mercurynews.com

Posted:
11/09/2012 11:37:09 AM PST

Updated:
11/09/2012 09:56:47 PM PST

STANFORD -- The regular season is over for Stanford, at least in the traditional sense.

After dispatching Colorado in a glorified exhibition game, the Cardinal plunges into what amounts to three weeks of postseason play. At stake: nothing less than the Pac-12 North title, a berth in the league championship game and potentially an invitation to the Rose Bowl.

"We've definitely put ourselves in position to actually get to our goal," linebacker Jarek Lancaster said. "Every game is like a playoff."

Beginning Saturday against Oregon State and continuing with trips to Oregon and UCLA, the Cardinal faces three ranked teams with a combined record of 23-3.

That stands in stark contrast to the stretch Stanford just concluded against Cal, Washington State and Colorado, which have a 6-22 aggregate mark.

The Stanford-Oregon State winner maintains control of its destiny in the North: Run the table -- that includes beating Oregon -- and it plays for the conference championship.

But that's not the only path to the Rose Bowl, it turns out. USC's midseason tailspin has cleared an alternate path into the Bowl Championship Series for the Cardinal and Beavers.

The head-to-head winner could reach the Rose Bowl even if it then loses to Oregon.

If the undefeated Ducks jump into the national championship game, the Rose would have an at-large spot open for any Pac-12 team with nine wins and a top-14 position in the final BCS standings.

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The South division winner is unlikely to crack the top 14, but there's no rule preventing the Rose Bowl from inviting the North's runner-up. (Notre Dame might be an option for the Rose Bowl, but that's a story for another day.)

Oregon State is No. 11 in the BCS standings, with Stanford checking in at No. 14. The head-to-head winner would have nine victories if its only remaining loss is to Oregon.

In that situation, it just might maintain a top-14 ranking because other teams will take on losses down the stretch, as well.

In other words, the league title and a possible BCS at-large berth are on the line Saturday at Stanford Stadium in what should be a close, intense matchup between similar teams.

The Cardinal and the Beavers have rugged defensive lines and playmakers at linebacker and in the secondary. Stanford leads the conference in fewest points allowed (16.6); OSU is second (18.1).

Both teams rely on punishing running games and play-action passing. The Beavers possess an elite receiving tandem (Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks), while Stanford has a first-class pair of tight ends (Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo).

Both teams have inexperienced quarterbacks -- OSU's Cody Vaz will make his fourth career start, Stanford's Kevin Hogan his first -- whose priority will be making smart plays and avoiding big mistakes.

Both teams are fundamentally sound and stingy with the ball. Stanford leads the conference in turnover margin (plus-1.22 per game), while OSU is third (plus-0.75).

"They're efficient. They're not out of position. ... They don't make mistakes," Stanford coach David Shaw said.

"I told my team, 'You're going to have to beat a team like this. They are not going to beat themselves.' "

The kickoff time for Stanford's Nov. 17 game at Oregon is expected to be announced Sunday.