NIESR says evidence of a recovery is starting to emerge

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009, a leading economic think tank has said.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicts that the economy returned to growth, bringing an end to the recession.

NIESR's estimates come ahead of the official gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the fourth quarter, which will be released on 26 January.

The UK economy has contracted for six consecutive quarters.

That means the current recession is the longest since records began in 1955.

Broader picture

NIESR said the pace of growth appears to be increasing. It estimates that there was a 0.2% increase in GDP in the three months ending in November.

According to NIESR's data, GDP fell by 4.8% in 2009.

"This is a bigger fall than in any year of the Great Depression and is Britain's biggest contraction since 1921.

"The broader picture of the depression is that output fell sharply for twelve months until March and has not changed very much since then, although evidence of a recovery is starting to emerge."