When Kendall Heise started farming about 20 years ago, he grew cool-season grains like wheat and canola — in the harsh climes of Manitoba, it wasn’t like he had much choice.

This spring, he plans to also plant warm-season soybeans and corn.

“We were, and still are, somewhat limited in what we can grow because of the cold climate,” says Heise. “But it’s changing … spring comes a little earlier and the fall a bit later and we are taking advantage of it.”

Western Canada’s cold and short growing seasons have historically prevented farmers from planting crops like soybeans. But as temperatures have risen and growing seasons have grown longer, the extra days between the last and first frost have given farmers a chance to grow new, potentially more lucrative, crops. In a paper in 2011, Paul Bullock, a University of Manitoba professor, analyzed rainfall and temperature data from 12 Prairie weather stations and found that warming from the 1920s to 2000 has allowed farmers to plant more crops that are traditionally grown in the warmer U.S. states.

(For the Prairies, scientists have predicted average high temperatures will increase by 2-3C and lows will increase by about 3C by mid century. Precipitation is also expected to increase by 3-7 per cent.)

In some regions of western Canada, the length of the frost-free period — from the last day of spring when it freezes to the last day of fall when it doesn’t — has increased by almost two weeks, substantial in farming terms.

Soybeans and corn — which require longer, warmer growing seasons — have made huge jumps in acreage in the western Canada in the past 15 years. Where there were almost no soybeans grown in Manitoba then, the province now produces about 20 per cent of Canada’s crop. Ditto for corn: in 1996, Manitoba and Alberta produced 1 per cent of Canada’s corn — in 2013, that number hit 10 per cent.

“It’s been a huge change,” said Brian McConkey, research scientist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in Swift Current, Sask.

But it isn’t just climate change that has played a role, he said. Crop breeding has helped make some soybean varieties do better in cooler conditions. “Same for corn,” he said. “These new varieties are hardier and do much better.”

The same combination of warming and hardier breeds is behind the expansion of the soybean crop in Nova Scotia and PEI.

Soybeans, projections say, could become increasingly common in the Prairies as longer, hotter seasons will give the crop an advantage over cool-season crops.

Canola, for example, can be sensitive to high temperatures in the summer. “There is a chance that we could see canola move out of the southern part of the Prairies,” said McConkey.

Although the temperature data shows warming, there is also great variability each year — which means big risks for farmers.

Bullock calls it a double-edged sword.

“You can put (new crops) in the ground but you may not get anything,” he said. “That is why there is interest, farmers would like to grow new crops but some people think it’s still a gamble.”

Most farmers can manage a reasonable middle range of conditions, Bullock said. “It is the extremes that kill you. It takes one night to drop down cold and bam, it wrecks the crop.”

While temperature is important, rain is also crucial for farmers: with climate change, rain and snow are becoming increasingly erratic and falling in different areas than they used to.

Farmers understand that and accept risks, said Heise.

He, like many other farmers he knows, subscribes to a weather service out of Kansas that specializes in forecasting for agriculture. It costs about $600 annually.

But the chance to grow soybeans and corn pays off in other ways, too, Heise said: the average rainfall has increased in some regions in the past decades and soybeans absorb more moisture and are more tolerant to flooding as well.

“It also helps in crop rotation.”

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While Heise now grows soybeans on 120 hectares, the rest of his farm just north of Brandon, Man. — nearly 700 hectares — is still lush fields of wheat, canola and flax.

“I haven’t let go of the regular crops,” he said. “But I rethink everything now.”

Climate change may have helped reap bumper crops of soybeans and corn in recent years, but Bullock says he is positive there’s a limit to which warm-weather crops will show up in Prairie fields.

Farmers are innovative and adapt well “so maybe there are things we haven’t thought of that may show up … but not coconuts or peanuts. Not in my lifetime anyway.”

How farmers are adapting

The U.K.

In the past decade, the growing season has become almost a month longer than the average from 1960-1990. Farmers in the north of the country can now plant crops that are usually grown in the south, and some livestock farmers are getting a boost from the warmer weather.

The U.S.

The growing season has increased more in the U.S. West than the East. Countrywide, it has become about two weeks longer in the last 30 years. That is a good thing for most farmers, but scientists have warned warming will increase the risk for pests, diseases and weeds.

Russia

A 2013 report said that warming is already hurting grain production in Russia. Even though a longer growing season can help some farmers, higher temperatures are expected to also lead to water shortages and more weeds.

China

Like in other parts of the world, the changes to Chinese growing seasons are regional, and farmers are learning how to fertilize, irrigate and harvest accordingly. Changing monsoon patterns and increased overall rainfall are already leading to lower crop yields in some southern provinces.

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