It was little surprise Donald Trump was among the first to cheer when senators decided to press ahead with a confirmation vote for Brett Kavanaugh.

Ever since July when he announced he was nominating the 53-year-old judge for the seat being vacated by Anthony Kennedy – an announcement the former Apprentice host stage-managed by demanding everyone turn on their television sets at 9pm that warm summer evening – the president knew he would be a controversial choice.

He might have claimed Kavanaugh was a “judge’s judge”, someone with “impeccable credentials and unsurpassed qualifications”, but the man drawn from a list drawn up by White House counsel Don McGahn and the conservative Federalist Society, was always going to be contentious. While most Democrats opposed the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch the year before, Kavanaugh immediately attracted sterner opposition because opponents feared he was even more likely to roll-back key decisions such as Roe v Wade, which has guaranteed a woman’s right to a legal abortion.

The abortions right group NARAL Pro-Choice America, described him as someone who would “risk our lives and our freedoms”.

Yet, while progressives may have hated the idea of Kavanaugh on the court, Trump and his advisers knew that to key parts of his constituency, evangelical Christians and conservatives, he would literally be seen a gift from heaven.

Trump has long known the rare power he holds in this regard.

“From day one, I’ve heard, outside of war and peace of course, the most important decision you make is the selection of a Supreme Court judge, if you get it,” he said this summer, even before he named Kavanaugh. “And as you know there have been many presidents that never got a choice. You know, they went four years, they went eight years and they never got a choice, and here we are at two already.”

Senate vote on Brett Kavanaugh

It is not yet clear whether Kavanaugh will reach the bench of the nation’s highest court. On Friday, the senate decided by the thinnest of margins – 51-49 – to proceed with a confirmation vote over the weekend. Just one Democratic senator, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, voted to move the vote forward, and just one Republican, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, voted against. If a vote is tied 50-50, vice president Mike Pence, himself an evangelical Christian, gets to cast the deciding ballot.

Manchin said on Friday that he would support the nominee in the final vote, as did the Republican swing-voters Susan Collins and Jeff Flake, moving Kavanaugh a step closer to his goal.

Yet in the event that Kavanaugh is not confirmed, Republicans will use the controversy over his candidature and the opposition to him as a means to rev up the base and ensure a high turn out in the midterm elections, now just four weeks away.

“If he does not get it, they will portray this as a political hit-job to try and get Trump’s base out,” Jeanne Zaino, a professor or political science at Iona College in New York, told The Independent. “And if he does get it, then evangelicals will likely come out to vote. Either way, they are going to try and use this to appeal to his base.”

Evidence of Trump’s thinking on this was revealed last week at a campaign rally in Mississippi, where he mocked Christine Blasey Ford, one of the women have accused Kavanaugh of sexual abuse. (He has denied the allegations.)

In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing Show all 21 1 /21 In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 04: Protesters disrupt the confirmation hearing for Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh before the Senate Judiciary Committee in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill September 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. Kavanaugh was nominated by President Donald Trump to fill the vacancy on the court left by retiring Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) Chip Somodevilla Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A member of Code Pink protests as US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh arrives on the first day of his confirmation hearing in front of the US Senate on Capitol Hill in Washington DC, on September 4, 2018. - President Donald Trump's newest Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face punishing questioning from Democrats this week over his endorsement of presidential immunity and his opposition to abortion. Some two dozen witnesses are lined up to argue for and against confirming Kavanaugh, who could swing the nine-member high court decidedly in conservatives' favor for years to come. Democrats have mobilized heavily to prevent his approval. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing epa06996310 Circuit judge Brett Kavanaugh prepares to testify before his Senate confirmation hearing to be an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, DC, USA, 04 September 2018. President Trump nominated Kavanaugh to fill the seat of retiring justice Anthony Kennedy. If confirmed, Kavanaugh would give conservatives a five-member majority in the high court. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS MICHAEL REYNOLDS EPA In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 04: Protesters dressed in The Handmaid's Tale costume, protest outside the hearing room where Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh will testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee during his Supreme Court confirmation hearing in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill September 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. Kavanaugh was nominated by President Donald Trump to fill the vacancy on the court left by retiring Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) Win McNamee Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A protester is removed during a hearing of the Senate Judiciary Committee on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court September 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. - President Donald Trump's newest Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face punishing questioning from Democrats this week over his endorsement of presidential immunity and his opposition to abortion. Some two dozen witnesses are lined up to argue for and against confirming Kavanaugh, who could swing the nine-member high court decidedly in conservatives' favor for years to come. Democrats have mobilized heavily to prevent his approval. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A woman stands and voices her opposition to Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, during a Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing on his nomination for Supreme Court, on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Sept. 4, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin) Jacquelyn Martin AP In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 04: Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh arrives for testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee during his Supreme Court confirmation hearing in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill September 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. Kavanaugh was nominated by President Donald Trump to fill the vacancy on the court left by retiring Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) Win McNamee Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 04: Protesters disrupt the start of the Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill September 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. Kavanaugh was nominated by President Donald Trump to fill the vacancy on the court left by retiring Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images) Mark Wilson Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A protestor is carried out by security as US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh attends the first day of his confirmation hearing in front of the US Senate on Capitol Hill in Washington DC, on September 4, 2018. - President Donald Trump's newest Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face punishing questioning from Democrats this week over his endorsement of presidential immunity and his opposition to abortion. Some two dozen witnesses are lined up to argue for and against confirming Kavanaugh, who could swing the nine-member high court decidedly in conservatives' favor for years to come. Democrats have mobilized heavily to prevent his approval. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A woman stands and voices her opposition to Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, during a Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing on his nomination for Supreme Court, on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Sept. 4, 2018, in Washington.(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin) Jacquelyn Martin AP In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A protestor is escorted out of the room as US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh attends the first day of his confirmation hearing in front of the US Senate on Capitol Hill in Washington DC, on September 4, 2018. - President Donald Trump's newest Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face punishing questioning from Democrats this week over his endorsement of presidential immunity and his opposition to abortion. Some two dozen witnesses are lined up to argue for and against confirming Kavanaugh, who could swing the nine-member high court decidedly in conservatives' favor for years to come. Democrats have mobilized heavily to prevent his approval. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing U.S. Supreme Court nominee judge Brett Kavanaugh points to his daughters as his wife Ashley looks on before the start of his Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Chris Wattie CHRIS WATTIE REUTERS In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A woman protests as US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh arrives on the first day of his confirmation hearing in front of the US Senate on Capitol Hill in Washington DC, on September 4, 2018. - President Donald Trump's newest Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face punishing questioning from Democrats this week over his endorsement of presidential immunity and his opposition to abortion. Some two dozen witnesses are lined up to argue for and against confirming Kavanaugh, who could swing the nine-member high court decidedly in conservatives' favor for years to come. Democrats have mobilized heavily to prevent his approval. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing U.S. Capitol police officer lead detained protesters out of the start of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh's Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts JOSHUA ROBERTS REUTERS In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A protester is removed during a hearing of the Senate Judiciary Committee on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court September 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. - President Donald Trump's newest Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face punishing questioning from Democrats this week over his endorsement of presidential immunity and his opposition to abortion. Some two dozen witnesses are lined up to argue for and against confirming Kavanaugh, who could swing the nine-member high court decidedly in conservatives' favor for years to come. Democrats have mobilized heavily to prevent his approval. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A protester is removed during a Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing for U.S. Supreme Court nominee judge Brett Kavanaugh on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts JOSHUA ROBERTS REUTERS In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing A protester is removed during a hearing of the Senate Judiciary Committee on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court September 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. - President Donald Trump's newest Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face punishing questioning from Democrats this week over his endorsement of presidential immunity and his opposition to abortion. Some two dozen witnesses are lined up to argue for and against confirming Kavanaugh, who could swing the nine-member high court decidedly in conservatives' favor for years to come. Democrats have mobilized heavily to prevent his approval. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP)BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing epa06996576 A protester is removed as circuit judge Brett Kavanaugh appears before his Senate confirmation hearing to be an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, DC, USA, 04 September 2018. President Trump nominated Kavanaugh to fill the seat of retiring justice Anthony Kennedy. If confirmed, Kavanaugh would give conservatives a five-member majority in the high court. EPA/JIM LO SCALZO JIM LO SCALZO EPA In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing epa06996814 Protesters inside the Hart Senate Office building under arrest as Brett Kavanaugh appears before his Senate confirmation hearing to be an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States in the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, DC, USA, 04 September 2018. President Trump nominated Kavanaugh to fill the seat of retiring justice Anthony Kennedy. If confirmed, Kavanaugh would give conservatives a five-member majority in the high court. EPA/TASOS KATOPODIS TASOS KATOPODIS EPA In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing US Capitol Police arrest a protestor during the US Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing for Judge Brett Kavanaugh to be an Associate Justice on the US Supreme Court, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, September 4, 2018. - President Donald Trump's newest Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face punishing questioning from Democrats this week over his endorsement of presidential immunity and his opposition to abortion. Some two dozen witnesses are lined up to argue for and against confirming Kavanaugh, who could swing the nine-member high court decidedly in conservatives' favor for years to come. Democrats have mobilized heavily to prevent his approval. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images SAUL LOEB AFP/Getty Images In pictures: Chaos and fury at Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing US Capitol Police arrest a protestor during the US Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing for Judge Brett Kavanaugh to be an Associate Justice on the US Supreme Court, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, September 4, 2018. - President Donald Trump's newest Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is expected to face punishing questioning from Democrats this week over his endorsement of presidential immunity and his opposition to abortion. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP)SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images SAUL LOEB AFP/Getty Images

“How did you get home? I don’t remember. How’d you get there? I don’t remember. Where is the place? I don’t remember. How many years ago was it? I don’t know,” said Trump, making fun of her performance before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Christina Greer said Trump’s sharp shift in tactics – just days before he had said her testimony was “very compelling and she looks like a very fine woman to me” – was an attempt to target Republican women who might have been thinking twice about coming out and voting. She said he was trying to “ensure they chose party over gender” by suggesting the allegations levelled at Kavanaugh could have been made at their sons or husbands. “It’s deliberate.”

There are signs this tactic of projecting Kavanaugh as a victim are already working, and that voter enthusiasm among Republicans – something that ia already high among Democrats – is rising quickly.

Mary Katharine Ham, a writer a The Federalist, a conservative news magazine, appeared on CNN after the senate moved Kavanaugh’s vote forward on Friday. “I think we are under-under-estimating the extent to which Republicans are energised by this,” she said. “You are starting to see it in things like the increase in donations to the [National Republican Congressional Committee.]

A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist, showed that 82 per cent of Democrats said the November elections were very important, compared with 80 of Republicans. The gap of two points had narrowed from ten in July.