TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – During the 2020s, Taiwan will lose the last of its 17 diplomatic allies while the residents of the island of Kinmen will vote to join China, according to discussions organized by Japan’s Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS).

The conclusions were the result of debates between 50 experts, including serving government officials, military officers, academics, business people and journalists, reported Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun.

The changes regarding Taiwan were listed as one of two major events likely to happen in the region, the other being North Korea abandoning its missile plans in return for the United States dropping its sanctions and withdrawing its military from South Korea within four years.

For Taiwan’s domestic politics, the experts predicted a further polarization between the pro-China and pro-U.S. groups. Even without a vote on Kinmen, it was still possible that China would try and take the island by force in a scenario comparable to the Russian takeover of the Crimea.

As a result of the Kinmen situation, the U.S. would tighten its military relationships with Japan and South Korea to improve security guarantees for Taiwan, the experts at the CIGS event concluded.

The discussions revealed that Japanese experts gave serious thought to Chinese military action against Taiwan, with Kinmen as the island nation’s soft point, the Sankei Shimbun reported.