There is no shortage of metrics used to measure the four finalists announced Wednesday by Major League Soccer for its next two expansion clubs, due to be chosen before the end of this year. They are many of the same statistical pros and cons that account for why Raleigh was not among the penultimate quartet of Cincinnati, Detroit, Nashville and Sacramento.

Raleigh already has a professional men’s soccer team, but so do many of the twelve MLS expansion applicants. The Triangle is a top 25 television market, but it’s not the only one. Raleigh has a large youth soccer culture, but so do other cities. The Triangle has a robust corporate community and a rising tide of millennial consumers, but other markets have more. But there’s one facet that still supersedes all others, with which a market can vault to the front of the MLS line, and without which expansion hopes will wither and ultimately die.

It’s the stadium, stupid.

Over the ensuing weeks and months, Cincinnati, Detroit, Sacramento and erstwhile underdog Nashville have made demonstrable strides in their respective efforts to finalize stadium plans. Meanwhile, stadium snafus have derailed early sure-fire bids in St. Louis, San Diego and Charlotte.

Raleigh’s MLS bid occupies a more middle ground. There have been no spectacular missteps or failures to cast a pall over its application. At the same time, no news hasn't necessarily been good news in the four months since North Carolina FC owner Steve Malik, the spearhead behind the Triangle’s MLS expansion effort, announced plans for an entertainment and sports complex on grounds of the North Carolina state government complex, adjacent to Halifax Mall in downtown Raleigh.

“The [four markets] that were announced today were no surprise to us,” Malik says, speaking to WRALSportsFan. “We’ve been in a dialogue with MLS. When we chose to take on the great challenge of what we thought was ultimately the best scenario for our community, namely going after a revitalization of the north end of downtown [Raleigh] at the state government complex, we knew there would be timelines in that equation that were out of our control.”

The first of those timelines, initially outlined by MLS in December 2016, was choosing two expansion clubs before the end of 2017 from a pool of twelve applicants. Yesterday’s four finalists will make formal presentations to MLS Commissioner Don Garber and the league’s expansion committee on Dec. 6.

“We knew it was going to be challenging to meet the December deadline,” Malik says. “When you think about building on the state government property, tearing down buildings, putting up 750,000 square feet of office space, condominiums, ground-floor retail, all the parking, and the mass transport plan, it’s quite a challenge to think we would have been ready to play [there] in 2020. This process allows our plans to come to fruition in a timeline that allows for public discourse and concerns to be aired.”

Indeed, Raleigh remains in the ballgame. Major League Soccer will name two more expansion clubs, although the league’s timeline for those selections has not been announced. These third and fourth expansion spots are now Malik’s focus as he works to shore up his bid, which first and foremost involves the downtown Raleigh stadium plans. While that recent process has been shrouded in silence, Malik says significant progress has been made.

“When you’re talking to the State of North Carolina about their state government complex, and you have a number of administrative departments with employees in [that complex],” Malik says, “there are a lot of people you have to talk to in order to make sure their concerns are appropriately addressed. We’ve been doing that.”

Malik and his project partner, developer John Kane, have been working through the N.C. Department of Administration, which manages the real estate portfolio for the state. Malik says the next step in the process is a to-be scheduled formal presentation to the Council of State, which must vote to approve any lease or sale of state land.

After clearing that crucial hurdle, attention will next turn in earnest to the city and county’s involvement with, and contribution to, the project, including necessary infrastructure improvements.

“When you look at other cities that have moved further along in the [MLS stadium] process, there’s always a discussion about public-private partnership,” Malik says. “We’ve been having that discussion with the state; we haven’t had a lot of conversation about that with the city and county yet, because we need to secure the land … There have been discussions around all kinds of available funds, some that are specifically targeted to projects like this,” referring, in part, to Raleigh’s occupancy and prepared food and beverage taxes, already designated for downtown development.

“For us to be considered for the final two expansion spots, we’re going to need to get moving,” Malik says. “It’s not practical to think we’re going to be in a position win the third or fourth spot without getting the process completed, I’d say in the first quarter [of 2018].”

In the meantime, preparations for the 2018 seasons of the North Carolina FC and North Carolina Courage have begun in the wake of NCFC’s recently announced move from the volatile North American Soccer League to the United Soccer League. With NCFC’s league situation settled for next year, Malik says the club’s other focus this offseason is attendance. In 2017, the Courage averaged 4,389 fans per match, fourth-best in the ten-team NWSL. At the same time, North Carolina FC’s average league attendance of 4,471 represented a drop of over 10 percent from 2016.

Malik cites a laundry list of action items that monopolized both he and his staff’s time and efforts over the past 12 months: the club rebrand; the off-season NASL sanctioning saga prior to the 2017 season; bringing and marketing an NWSL team to the Triangle over just two months; the formation of NCFC Youth; preparing the MLS expansion application and stadium plans; and Malik’s fiduciary commitments to the NASL, NWSL and U.S. Soccer Board of Directors, on which he currently sits.

“With all that on our plate last year,” Malik says, “we didn’t have as much focus as an organization on the attendance issue, and we’re much more focused on it now.”

Malik says while he’s proud of his club’s accomplishments over the past year, bolstering attendance is a priority that’s not only important for the overall health of the club, but it’s “something we’ve had a dialogue with [MLS] about, and we need to do better.”

“If our market was responding better, it would make more of a statement,” Malik admits. “We’ve heard that. And that’s something we need help with. We put a great product on the field, a playoff team with the men’s team and the Supporters Shield winner for the Courage. The feedback we’re getting about fan experience on game day is very positive. What we haven’t done, which some [MLS bid] markets have done, is reach out to the big corporate members in the community and ask them to buy 400-500 season tickets, and ask them to hold their [corporate] events at [soccer games]. We’re doing that now, which we did not do previously.

“And we need that help—that’s part of what we need the community to do,” Malik continues. “Everyone asks what they can do—you can buy season tickets, you can get your company to have group events at matches.”

Whether it’s selling more tickets or selling the virtues of a new downtown soccer stadium, the coming months promise to be pivotal for Raleigh’s MLS fate.

“I push forward every day with the belief that this is a matter of when, not if,” Malik says. “This is a great soccer market, it’s part of the fabric of this community, and we’re going to play at the highest level.

“If we accomplish half as much in 2018 as we did in 2017, we’re going to be a very viable MLS candidate.”