2018 was a weird year for the electric vehicle metal miners. While we saw a massive 70% growth in electric car sales in 2018, most of the lithium/cobalt/graphite/nickel miner’s stock prices fell in the wake of some oversupply fears and concern over the trade war and China’s slowdown. Of course for greater context it should be noted that 2016 and 2017 saw stellar years with many electric vehicle (EV) metal stocks doubling, tripling or more.

What will 2019 bring? Analysts are somewhat mixed in their 2019 forecasts. For lithium some are forecasting oversupply and weak lithium prices, while others maintain lithium prices will remain high due to strong demand and the typical lithium supply lag.

Bloomberg’s annual electric vehicle sales forecast – 30m pa by 2030, 60m pa by 2040

What we can say with some confidence is that any junior EV metal miner that can make significant progress towards production is likely to do well, especially assuming electric vehicles continue to grow rapidly. It is easy to forget we may be looking at a 54 fold increase in electric cars between 2017 and 2040, based on Bloomberg’s forecast. Other research firms are increasingly making similar forecasts, and the battery supply chain is gearing up with 68 mega-factories already in the planning or construction stage. Many cities and countries are even banning or punishing petrol or diesel cars to reduce carbon emissions.

All this means that from now to 2040 at least, we are very likely to see an unprecedented demand pull on the EV metals – Lithium, cobalt, rare earths, graphite, nickel, and copper. The chart below (courtesy of Bloomberg) shows the impact that a 100% EV world would have on the key EV metals, noting those with smaller markets like lithium and cobalt would feel the greatest impact. Lithium would see a 29 fold demand increase.