It’s been about six weeks since our last update, hence why they are monthly-ish, and there is some news to share. That said, if you are new to the wild (and often confusing) world of MLS Expansion, I recommend a look back to how we got here.

Miami is In?

Nearly four years after David Beckham announced his intention to bring MLS to Miami, he has officially been granted a team. They won’t play until 2020, after they previously said they could play by 2019. When they announced 2019, they said their stadium would be ready by 2020. Now the stadium won’t be ready until 2021 and the team will play in a temporary venue for a year.

The reason for the question mark on them being in is that, we’ve heard all this before. Nothing seems to be done in Miami until it’s actually done. Sacramento has broken ground for a stadium they may not need and aren’t in, yet somehow Miami is in. On top of that, community organizers in Overtown (the eventual home of the new 25,000 seat stadium) are trying to rally residents against building it.

According to the Miami Herald the group is “sending out fliers that resemble eviction notices to public housing residents.” Apparently the stadium could potentially displace “200 more families.” A spokesman for the Mayor denied those allegations. Then there is this:

“While the ceremony celebrated MLS approval of an expansion team, the Beckham group has not yet closed on the three acres of county-owned land in Overtown that the partnership agreed to purchase for $9 million last year. The group also must win city approval for the zoning changes and street closures needed to build the stadium.”

So many roadblocks. But hey, Lionel Messi said he may come play for Beckham when he’s older. Maybe no one told Messi MLS isn’t a retirement league anymore (that said — please come!).

As is always the case with these announcements (as of late) there is no team name or colors. Though the fans may have input on that. After the announcement Beckham, Don Garber and Marcelo Claure spoke with Susannah Collins of MLSsoccer.com.

Time Frame for Who is Next?

After nearly a year of promising two teams would be announced for MLS Expansion by late December, the month came and went with only Nashville being announced. Miami came in late January, but they weren’t part of the 12 cities in the running. Sacramento, Cincinnati and Detroit are all still waiting.

Apparently they may be waiting for a bit. While speaking with Sports Illustrated (jump to 11:48 for Garber), MLS Commissioner Don Garber stated “hopefully before the start of the season,” when referring to team number 26. Hopefully. He added that there were “no issues” and they are just “dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s.” Hmmm.

Let’s discuss those three candidates first.

Sacramento Republic FC

Things are turning very bad in a hurry in Northern California. Kevin Nagle, the lead investor of SRFC, has confirmed Jed York and Meg Whitman are both out as investors. That’s two billionaires dropping out within days of each other.

In an effort to not get passed over (again) Nagle is making a public plea for new investors. If something doesn’t happen soon, it seems likely Sacramento will miss out again and they could miss out for good. Expansion fees have doubled since they started this process and without a new lead investor, it seems unlikely they can cover the cost of a $250 million privately financed stadium and the $150 million expansion fee.

With brings us to a public subsidy. The Sacramento Bee is reporting that a public contribution could be in the works.

“Mayor Darrell Steinberg said he is comfortable with a limited public contribution to the project, including reducing some building fees and donating land to Republic FC for a team training facility.” “I’m confident we can get Major League Soccer without a major public construction or operating subsidy,” Steinberg said. “Major League Soccer and the building of a state-of-the-art railyard stadium would have a tremendous benefit to the community. But this primarily needs to be done privately, and that has been the expectation from the beginning.”

What I’m hearing is, no billionaire, no team.

FC Cincinnati

Sacramento’s loss could be Cincy’s gain. FC Cincinnati already have billionaire owners and they already secured a site for that stadium in the Oakley area. As has been previously reported, they have a deal on the table across the river from downtown in Newport but there is also a third option on the table.

FC Cincinnati has submitted an option to buy the land in the West End, long considered the better of the sites actually in Cincy, and that bid was approved. What’s confusing is that land isn’t to build a stadium. Instead housing will be built. It’s all very confusing, but this sounds like more land is being bought up with the hope of putting the stadium there and the deal in Oakley was simply to get something in to MLS by their deadline. Cincinnati Soccer Talk does a good job of rounding up the situation.

Wherever the stadium gets built, it seems like there are no shortage of options or money to get it done. What it may come down to is if the Columbus Crew get moved to Austin, Texas. Information has been leaking out about a potential Austin stadium but MLS said they are open to keeping the Crew in Columbus. Sure they are.

Detroit, Michigan

Long considered the dark horse of the final four bids, Detroit has been really quiet since our last update. At that time the Detroit MLS bid got great news that their Wayne County jail site was suddenly available, just after they had moved their stadium plan to Ford Field. At the time I said it was “too little, too late,” but that was when the next announcement seemed imminent. Six weeks later and still nothing.

Who’s Next?

Let’s not forget Detroit has three billionaires on board. While I would pick Cincy over them if forced to choose today, they could sneak in. Cincinnati has a proven soccer fan base, a temporary stadium they can keep using (that is well above average for MLS) and three sites where they can put a stadium. It seems they could be ready to go in 2019 to re-balance the league since Nashville and Miami are coming in 2020 (supposedly). If I’m forced to rank them, it goes:

FC Cincinnati Detroit Sacramento (so deserving, yet so likely to get screwed)

Phoenix Rising FC

While most of the other non-final four teams have been quiet, PRFC are still working towards being in the running. In late January, they announced the selection of two architectural design firms that will collaborate on their potential MLS stadium.

Populous, who have designed seven MLS stadiums — including Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City and Orlando City’s new stadium — will be working with Gould Evans, a Phoenix-based firm. They will be working on a climate controlled stadium which “will include providing tactical shade while maximizing ventilation and water as a vehicle to cooling.”

It should be noted, Populous has designed 70 soccer stadiums, 14 of which are for national teams, including London-based stadiums Wembley National Stadium and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The new facility can be ready as soon as 2021. The same year Miami’s stadium “will” be done. Except Phoenix Rising have financing and the land in place. Yet Miami are in and Phoenix sits and waits. Much like Sacramento, an announcement of a billionaire would go a long way for them.

Indy Eleven

Indy Eleven joined the United Soccer League in time to play in the 2018 season, something their former league is very uncertain they will have. On top of that, Indianapolis will be moving into the Indianapolis Colts stadium, Lucus Oil Stadium for the 2018 season. Indy were already one of the best attended teams in the league and now they will be playing a 42,000 seat stadium, instead of the approximately 9,000 that could fit into Carroll Stadium. It will be interesting to see how many of those seats are open and if the stadium will be reconfigured. If they only put 9,000 people in there, it’ll be nearly as bad as the Sporting Kansas City days as the Wizards in Arrowhead.

Corner Kicks (all that other expansion news)