Most Dangerous Cities in California

Posted in General FAQ'S on May 12, 2016

What city in California is the most dangerous? Which city is the safest? When looking at the crime numbers in the state, most people would assume that Oakland is the most dangerous city in California.

However, using crime statistics alone to determine a city’s level of danger or safety is something that criminologists and the FBI warn against. There are a myriad of other factors that combine to affect crime and public safety in a city. Together- Riverside criminal defense attorney Graham Donath and data visualization firm 1point21 Interactive, we analyzed several of these factors along with the latest crime data from the FBI to find out which cities in California with a population of 100,000 or greater are the most dangerous in the state.

Overall Rankings

We analyzed data across three key dimensions – Crime, Police Presence, and Community Factors. Within these dimensions, we identified and ranked 14 metrics that influence the safety of a city. The table below displays the results of our study.

Final Rank City Crime Rank (1 is Most Crime) Police Rank (1 is Least Investment) Community Rank (1 is Highest Risk Factors) Overall Score 1 San Bernardino 2 9 9 37.50 2 Stockton 3 40 2 65.50 3 Modesto 8 10 7 80.50 4 Vallejo 4 8 32 86.00 5 Salinas 10 3 11 94.50 6 Oakland 1 53 26 99.50 7 Antioch 6 4 34 100.00 8 Pomona 11 22 5 112.00 9 Victorville 14 1 16 130.00 10 Inglewood 9 54 12 139.50 11 Richmond 5 58 38 152.50 12 Sacramento 13 30 20 157.50 13 Lancaster 17 13 23 175.00 14 San Francisco 7 61 48 185.50 15 Riverside 15 38 24 186.50 16 Fairfield 12 31 49 194.50 17 Long Beach 19 36 14 199.50 18 Santa Maria 20 19 25 206.50 19 Los Angeles 18 63 8 210.00 20 Fresno 21 47 4 210.50 21 Santa Ana 26 15 3 214.50 22 Bakersfield 24 12 17 217.50 23 Visalia 23 18 21 222.00 24 Hayward 16 49 41 230.50 25 Oxnard 22 33 33 247.50 26 Rialto 33 17 6 273.50 27 Santa Rosa 30 20 39 303.50 28 Anaheim 31 48 19 309.00 29 El Cajon 34 46 10 316.00 30 San Jose 29 35 43 317.00 31 Berkeley 25 64 46 320.50 32 Oceanside 27 45 53 327.00 33 Fontana 41 5 13 332.00 34 Escondido 36 21 31 337.50 35 Concord 28 55 51 341.50 36 El Monte 44 16 1 347.50 37 Downey 42 29 15 366.50 38 Pasadena 35 66 29 372.00 39 San Diego 32 59 52 377.00 40 Elk Grove 38 2 60 377.00 41 Clovis 43 14 30 381.50 42 Costa Mesa 37 44 44 387.50 43 Ontario 40 62 22 395.00 44 Garden Grove 47 26 18 405.50 45 Chula Vista 46 7 36 406.00 46 Ventura 39 52 47 415.00 47 Fullerton 45 37 37 430.00 48 West Covina 50 25 27 440.50 49 Rancho Cucamonga 53 11 55 491.00 50 Huntington Beach 48 56 62 509.00 51 San Mateo 49 51 64 514.50 52 Daly City 52 43 57 518.50 53 Santa Clara 51 60 59 531.00 54 Burbank 54 67 42 535.00 55 Corona 59 42 35 537.00 56 Temecula 57 32 54 540.50 57 Roseville 55 39 63 546.00 58 Santa Clarita 64 6 40 546.00 59 Carlsbad 56 41 67 561.50 60 Simi Valley 60 34 58 571.00 61 Torrance 58 68 50 578.00 62 Fremont 61 28 68 587.50 63 Thousand Oaks 63 24 66 595.50 64 Murrieta 66 23 56 602.00 65 Sunnyvale 62 50 61 606.50 66 Glendale 67 65 28 609.50 67 Orange 65 57 45 612.00 68 Irvine 68 27 65 634.50

*for more information on our ranking formula, see our methodology section

Crime and Public Safety

In the state of California, there were a total of 1,105,242 crimes (2,848 crimes per 100,000 people) committed in 2014;. 151,425 of these were what classified as violent crimes. Violent crime, as defined by the FBI, includes instances of murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, all of which involve felony charges. Weighed heaviest in our rankings, violent crime had the biggest impact on public safety. By it’s nature, violent crime threatens citizen’s personal safety and even their lives. At the state level, violent crime rates were down compared to 2013 in nearly every category. This continues a downward (but very positive) trend in the reduction of reported violent crimes over the past 22 years – where it peaked at 345,508 in 1992 .

While overall violent crime is decreasing, it remains high and is rising in several cities in the state. Interestingly, violent crime in the state’s biggest city, Los Angeles, has decreased significantly while it has risen sharply in others – Oakland for example. As previously mentioned, there are many variables that affect crime differently in every city.

Crime Rates in the 10 Largest Cities in California

Looking at the largest cities by population, Oakland stands head and shoulders above the rest, with more than 2X the crime rate of San Francisco and more than 3X of Los Angeles.

Crime - Detailed Findings (Crime Data Displayed as Rate Per 100k)

Final Rank City Violent Crime Murder Rape Robbery Assault Total Crime Crime Totals Crime Rank 1 San Bernardino 991.67 20.04 48.46 377.93 545.23 10,650.18 20.00 2.00 2 Stockton 1,331.47 16.36 44.74 366.59 903.78 11,467.72 21.00 3.00 3 Modesto 863.86 5.34 39.35 187.06 632.11 10,611.70 60.00 8.00 4 Vallejo 865.24 15.06 52.72 307.94 489.52 9,931.89 29.00 4.00 5 Salinas 635.40 9.56 20.39 286.15 319.30 7,956.25 92.00 10.00 6 Oakland 1,685.39 19.51 50.98 849.04 765.86 15,300.22 10.00 1.00 7 Antioch 784.49 8.32 49.90 295.69 430.59 9,351.99 44.00 6.00 8 Pomona 511.52 11.85 28.97 158.66 312.05 6,831.51 96.00 11.00 9 Victorville 524.87 2.45 31.88 154.52 336.01 8,222.15 112.00 14.00 10 Inglewood 699.13 17.86 28.57 331.26 321.44 6,306.42 80.00 9.00 11 Richmond 777.22 10.14 58.08 348.50 360.49 9,473.19 38.00 5.00 12 Sacramento 614.79 5.80 16.16 207.14 385.69 7,511.08 109.00 13.00 13 Lancaster 556.21 2.50 33.71 155.44 364.57 5,706.35 122.00 17.00 14 San Francisco 795.14 5.29 41.75 379.16 368.93 12,225.07 47.00 7.00 15 Riverside 433.24 3.76 44.76 138.05 246.67 7,069.58 119.00 15.00 16 Fairfield 470.53 5.44 37.17 182.23 245.69 7,972.80 101.00 12.00 17 Long Beach 489.04 4.88 23.35 188.70 272.12 6,274.79 126.00 19.00 18 Santa Maria 426.69 2.92 42.77 144.82 236.19 6,783.30 130.00 20.00 19 Los Angeles 490.71 6.66 28.82 203.47 251.77 5,266.68 122.00 18.00 20 Fresno 464.16 9.16 10.33 152.19 292.49 9,202.30 131.00 21.00 21 Santa Ana 374.49 5.35 34.18 134.34 200.62 4,193.34 172.00 26.00 22 Bakersfield 456.72 4.63 5.72 179.64 266.73 8,959.57 154.00 24.00 23 Visalia 376.69 7.78 23.35 107.40 238.15 6,666.77 148.00 23.00 24 Hayward 394.60 5.87 34.57 214.59 139.58 7,168.71 121.00 16.00 25 Oxnard 433.00 5.39 22.04 218.95 186.62 7,131.21 133.00 22.00 26 Rialto 319.88 4.88 17.55 110.20 187.24 4,849.81 205.00 33.00 27 Santa Rosa 367.65 1.16 40.46 75.15 250.88 5,210.68 189.00 30.00 28 Anaheim 317.33 4.04 22.77 120.48 170.05 5,365.81 190.00 31.00 29 El Cajon 317.98 3.89 19.45 130.30 164.34 5,023.43 205.00 34.00 30 San Jose 321.09 3.17 30.31 106.17 181.44 5,522.65 184.00 29.00 31 Berkeley 366.02 2.55 29.72 223.35 110.40 9,410.38 155.00 25.00 32 Oceanside 374.49 2.87 29.87 106.83 234.92 5,345.14 174.00 27.00 33 Fontana 347.13 0.98 19.07 84.58 242.50 4,328.42 238.00 41.00 34 Escondido 341.70 2.00 23.36 110.12 206.22 4,731.08 207.00 36.00 35 Concord 366.88 2.37 17.36 130.97 216.18 8,939.28 177.00 28.00 36 El Monte 286.53 1.72 17.21 141.11 126.48 4,385.65 247.00 44.00 37 Downey 247.37 2.64 13.20 111.80 119.72 5,607.64 239.00 42.00 38 Pasadena 280.68 7.12 16.38 89.76 167.41 5,523.85 205.00 35.00 39 San Diego 380.95 2.34 27.11 96.30 255.21 4,695.07 192.00 32.00 40 Elk Grove 381.70 1.23 19.64 76.09 284.74 4,536.78 216.00 38.00 41 Clovis 214.49 0.99 27.80 47.66 138.03 6,525.99 243.00 43.00 42 Costa Mesa 282.14 0.00 39.93 106.47 135.75 6,723.51 209.00 37.00 43 Ontario 256.12 3.57 11.89 96.86 143.81 6,061.40 226.00 40.00 44 Garden Grove 230.54 2.84 9.65 70.41 147.64 3,993.05 278.00 47.00 45 Chula Vista 235.48 2.69 15.39 82.34 135.06 3,965.85 266.00 46.00 46 Ventura 252.64 0.92 25.63 94.28 131.81 7,593.87 220.00 39.00 47 Fullerton 242.32 0.00 39.32 72.20 130.81 5,085.96 251.00 45.00 48 West Covina 208.07 0.92 3.70 80.45 122.99 5,658.62 290.00 50.00 49 Rancho Cucamonga 163.87 2.32 9.84 57.33 94.39 4,584.99 304.00 53.00 50 Huntington Beach 196.33 0.50 22.60 50.21 123.02 4,658.75 289.00 48.00 51 San Mateo 225.31 0.00 20.57 72.49 132.25 4,268.14 289.00 49.00 52 Daly City 183.66 1.89 16.09 73.84 91.83 3,566.29 299.00 52.00 53 Santa Clara 133.76 0.00 21.47 73.48 38.81 5,673.17 296.00 51.00 54 Burbank 142.80 0.95 13.33 52.36 76.16 4,916.18 306.00 54.00 55 Corona 106.13 0.00 15.52 42.20 48.41 4,496.43 346.00 59.00 56 Temecula 92.33 1.85 6.46 49.86 34.16 4,872.22 338.00 57.00 57 Roseville 149.62 0.78 13.18 38.76 96.90 5,072.99 314.00 55.00 58 Santa Clarita 148.36 0.48 7.25 44.46 96.17 2,656.94 354.00 64.00 59 Carlsbad 181.66 0.89 12.47 39.18 129.12 3,450.67 325.00 56.00 60 Simi Valley 110.58 0.00 21.33 18.96 70.30 2,786.64 346.00 60.00 61 Torrance 104.75 1.35 12.16 49.33 41.90 3,757.49 338.00 58.00 62 Fremont 124.79 0.44 8.79 52.29 63.28 3,691.97 348.00 61.00 63 Thousand Oaks 99.09 0.77 19.35 17.03 61.93 2,677.76 351.00 63.00 64 Murrieta 62.74 0.92 5.54 18.45 37.83 2,828.12 380.00 66.00 65 Sunnyvale 111.79 0.67 9.37 58.91 42.84 3,387.24 351.00 62.00 66 Glendale 94.38 0.00 4.57 34.00 55.82 3,315.42 387.00 67.00 67 Orange 100.88 0.00 7.10 37.65 56.12 3,402.08 376.00 65.00 68 Irvine 49.39 0.00 11.52 14.82 23.05 2,608.54 396.00 68.00

20 Most Dangerous Cities in California

Police and Community Factors - Detailed Findings Final Rank City Population Pop. Density Poverty Rate Unemp. Rate High School Grad % Days over 80 degrees (F) Police Budget Per Capita Officers per 100k 28 Anaheim 346,956.00 6,961.39 15.60 5.20 72.00 143 340 107.79 100 7 Antioch 108,223.00 3,817.38 14.50 6.50 83.00 142 257 81.31 22 Bakersfield 367,406.00 2,584.45 19.30 9.20 75.30 166 210 100.71 31 Berkeley 117,753.00 11,246.70 18.10 3.60 94.40 33 516 142.67 54 Burbank 105,041.00 6,057.72 8.50 5.80 86.20 121 462 138.99 59 Carlsbad 112,297.00 2,977.12 9.70 4.30 94.30 61 257 97.95 45 Chula Vista 259,894.00 5,236.63 10.40 6.00 78.80 82 172 81.57 41 Clovis 100,705.00 4,325.81 12.10 7.90 86.00 167 142 94.33 35 Concord 126,744.00 4,148.74 11.30 5.10 85.20 124 347 119.14 55 Corona 161,128.00 4,149.57 9.90 4.80 80.10 170 255 95.58 42 Costa Mesa 112,709.00 7,201.85 14.10 4.20 84.40 29 357 100.26 52 Daly City 105,628.00 13,789.55 7.80 3.90 83.90 15 245 105.09 37 Downey 113,595.00 9,153.50 12.10 6.30 73.70 160 256 95.07 29 El Cajon 102,838.00 7,126.68 24.80 6.90 76.90 138 265 118.63 36 El Monte 116,220.00 12,156.90 22.80 8.80 53.10 159 198 98.09 40 Elk Grove 162,957.00 3,862.45 9.30 4.50 88.50 153 200 77.32 34 Escondido 149,839.00 4,070.60 18.30 4.80 71.20 137 235 102.11 16 Fairfield 110,300.00 2,949.98 12.90 5.30 83.60 128 298 101.54 33 Fontana 204,532.00 4,842.46 15.00 6.60 69.20 167 205 89.47 62 Fremont 227,575.00 2,937.96 5.80 3.50 89.10 66 253 79.53 20 Fresno 513,187.00 4,583.66 27.50 11.10 71.80 167 280 137.96 47 Fullerton 139,895.00 6,259.28 14.60 4.70 83.60 106 261 97.93 44 Garden Grove 176,106.00 9,816.38 15.50 5.10 70.80 119 260 86.31 66 Glendale 197,079.00 6,472.22 12.90 6.90 83.70 154 389 123.81 24 Hayward 153,319.00 3,383.03 13.50 6.30 76.80 37 396 114.14 50 Huntington Beach 199,152.00 7,444.93 8.30 4.00 91.50 17 317 103.94 10 Inglewood 111,997.00 12,348.07 20.10 9.30 70.20 19 425 144.65 68 Irvine 242,971.00 3,675.25 11.40 3.10 95.90 83 197 82.31 13 Lancaster 160,190.00 1,699.08 21.00 7.90 77.40 160 153 117.98 17 Long Beach 471,123.00 9,368.12 20.20 7.70 78.80 99 92 166.84 19 Los Angeles 3,906,772.00 8,335.86 21.20 7.50 72.80 120 335 253.59 3 Modesto 205,820.00 5,582.32 19.50 9.60 76.20 160 244 100.57 64 Murrieta 108,376.00 3,227.39 7.00 5.00 89.30 184 218 76.59 6 Oakland 409,994.00 7,348.87 20.30 5.50 78.20 42 461 174.39 32 Oceanside 174,102.00 4,222.70 11.80 4.90 81.70 21 297 116.60 43 Ontario 168,278.00 3,369.60 16.40 6.10 67.80 167 406 135.49 67 Orange 140,767.00 5,676.08 10.70 4.10 81.20 118 269 106.56 25 Oxnard 204,159.00 4,592.37 15.90 5.50 61.60 18 245 118.05 38 Pasadena 140,373.00 6,111.14 12.90 6.30 83.40 159 452 161.00 8 Pomona 151,899.00 6,618.69 20.40 7.90 62.80 147 277 103.36 49 Rancho Cucamonga 172,694.00 4,333.60 5.80 4.50 87.70 167 182 77.01 26 Rialto 102,540.00 4,587.92 19.20 7.30 64.40 172 243 97.52 11 Richmond 108,464.00 3,607.05 17.90 5.40 76.30 36 432 165.95 15 Riverside 319,453.00 3,937.06 17.50 5.90 75.20 163 274 113.94 57 Roseville 128,997.00 3,561.48 8.30 4.50 91.90 154 267 92.25 12 Sacramento 482,767.00 4,930.22 20.20 6.00 79.50 157 248 129.05 5 Salinas 156,908.00 6,769.11 20.80 8.00 57.10 49 223 86.04 1 San Bernardino 214,588.00 3,924.79 30.60 6.10 64.40 172 223 104.85 39 San Diego 1,368,690.00 4,208.89 15.40 4.60 84.80 61 305 137.07 14 San Francisco 850,294.00 18,141.54 13.20 3.40 84.50 0 621 251.32 30 San Jose 1,009,679.00 5,719.58 11.70 4.30 78.80 70 303 95.67 51 San Mateo 102,082.00 8,415.66 6.50 3.20 87.10 16 300 103.84 21 Santa Ana 336,462.00 12,338.17 20.70 4.70 50.40 184 308 78.46 53 Santa Clara 121,114.00 6,578.71 9.00 3.50 89.90 122 387 116.42 58 Santa Clarita 206,930.00 3,925.07 8.60 6.50 85.90 159 102 68.14 18 Santa Maria 102,885.00 4,520.43 19.80 5.60 57.40 82 228 106.92 27 Santa Rosa 172,991.00 4,189.66 13.20 4.70 82.00 148 262 95.96 60 Simi Valley 126,604.00 3,052.17 6.60 4.40 87.60 181 227 93.20 2 Stockton 299,519.00 4,856.80 23.30 9.50 70.30 173 384 123.87 65 Sunnyvale 149,384.00 6,793.27 7.20 3.40 89.60 78 180 137.23 56 Temecula 108,308.00 3,592.30 8.90 4.50 88.10 176 208 92.33 63 Thousand Oaks 129,175.00 2,347.35 6.40 4.90 92.30 106 210 83.61 61 Torrance 147,971.00 7,225.14 7.40 4.90 91.70 122 458 141.92 4 Vallejo 119,504.00 3,896.44 16.00 7.90 83.50 135 286 84.52 46 Ventura 109,246.00 5,046.00 11.50 5.10 83.00 18 280 116.25 9 Victorville 122,316.00 1,671.44 23.70 6.50 73.30 168 146 64.59 23 Visalia 128,488.00 3,544.49 17.20 9.30 79.10 166 204 108.18 48 West Covina 108,136.00 6,741.64 9.30 8.70 80.20 147 272 79.53

Law Enforcement Presence and Investment

The number of law enforcement personnel in the state of California actually increased 0.9 percent in 2014, however it remained 3.0 percent lower overall than in 2009. Since the recession of 2008, funding and staffing in most police departments throughout the state of California has actually gone down, significantly in some cases. This has led to mixed results, particularly in some of the small to mid-size cities. For example, in Anaheim both violent crime and property crime rose after their law enforcement personnel were reduced by close to 8 percent. In Santa Ana though, violent crime plunged by 24 percent after a modest reduction of 4 percent in their police staff.

There were three cities (Bakersfield, Irvine, and Richmond) that actually increased the size of their police departments, but two of them also saw spikes in property crime rates.

Hiring more police officers and boosting department budgets isn’t a panacea for all things crime related, but investment in law enforcement does help. Of course, how funds and officer man hours areif allocated can have a huge impact and that’s something that varies from city agency to city agency (even precinct to precinct). Focusing law enforcement efforts and budgets on the more serious offenses – such as violent crime – allows police departments to use their resources more effectively, thereby improving public safety.

Community Factors and Their Relationship with Crime

Poverty

The relationship between poverty rate and crime has been well established. Whether poverty causes crime or crime causes poverty is up for debate (and is debated often and hotly), the relationship between the two is not. The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports that, “persons living in poor households at or below the Federal Poverty Level had more than double the rate of violent victimization and a higher rate of firearm violence (as much as 4X higher) as persons in high-income households.” In California, the story is no different.

In taking a look at our collected data, no city in the bottom ten of crime rate (that is, had the lowest crime) had a poverty rate higher than 12.9 percent. But for cities in the top ten, every one had a poverty rate of 14.5 percent or higher, topping out at 30.6 percent in San Bernardino.

One explanation for high poverty levels in California cities could be the rising cost of living with stagnant wages. California did pass a bill approving $15/hour minimum wage, but this won’t take full effect for a few years. The poverty has actually grown in the state since 2007, and this could be because the increased cost of living is sending people into debt. It’s also encouraging people to leave or discouraging them from moving to the state.

Education

In our study we found moderate, significant negative correlations between crime and the percentage of high school graduates in a city, meaning that as the percentage of high school graduates dropped in the population, crime rates rose for certain types of crime. For example, such negative correlations were found between the percentage of high school graduates in CA cities and motor vehicle theft, murder, violent crime, aggravated assault, and robbery.

Other studies have shown that high school graduation rates have a big effect on crime. According to the School Library Journal, “dropouts are 3.5 times more likely to be arrested than high school graduates.” The ten most dangerous cities in our state all have a graduation rate of 83 percent or lower, bottoming out at 57 percent in Salinas. Conversely, in the study’s 10 safest cities for crime rate, their graduation rates are 81 percent or higher, with four such cities at 91 percent or higher.

Very recently, California ranked dead last in spending per pupil, which could help explain why many cities have such high percentages of adults without high school diplomas.

Unemployment

The effects unemployment has on crime rate has been noted many times in national studies, and although the results of these studies are mixed, many show that unemployment has an effect on poverty, which has a significant effect on crime rates. The relationship between unemployment and poverty in California is clear – cities with higher rates of unemployment have higher rates of poverty. However, even when studied separately, researchers have found that unemployment correlates with crime. One such study found that a one percent increase in unemployment results in an increase in violent crime by 31.87 and property crime by 71.13 per 100,000 residents.

Population Density

It is well established that the volume of crime in an area depends heavily on population size. More people, more crime. However, total population has a much lower effect on crime rates. Researchers and experts have found that population density (in our study: the number of residents per square mile) has a much more measurable impact. According to a study by the Indiana University Public Policy Institute, the rates of murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault are typically higher in areas with high-density residential developments and commercial property, and lower in areas characterized by industry, parks, and schools.

Climate

It may sound arbitrary, but it’s true – even the FBI recognizes climate as a factor for determining dangerous areas. There have been several studies done that show a positive relationship between high temperatures and an increase in crime. The International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences noted that, “It is evident that weather does impact crime. By studying current data and patterns of weather and crime, the outcome should show even more evidence of a correlation between weather and crime than ever before.”

What constitutes high temperature is relative, however. Some studies put the peak of this effect at 80 degrees, while others have that number in the low 90s. In order to cover all the recognized peaks, we counted up all the days that were 80 degrees or hotter in 2015 for each of the cities included in our research.

Methodology

We analyzed data across three key dimensions – Crime, Police Presence, and Community Factors. Within these dimensions, we identified and ranked 14 metrics that influence the safety of a city. Our dataset and rankings are a reflection of the following metrics:

Crime: 75 percent of total score

Overall Crime Rate per 100,000

Total Violent Crime Rate per 100,000

Murder and Homicide Rate per 100,000

Forcible Rape Rate per 100,000

Robbery Rate per 100,000

Aggravated Assault Rate per 100,000

Police Investment: 10 percent of total score

Police Officers per 100,000

Police Department Budget per Capita

Violent Crime Per Police Officer

Community Factors: 15 percent of total score

Poverty Rate

Unemployment Rate

Percentage of Residents Who Are High School Graduates

Climate – Number of days where temperature exceeded 80 degrees

Population Density – Number of residents per square mile

Data Sources

Crime data was sourced from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program and reflect data for 2014. All data was pulled from the “Offenses known to Law Enforcement” report.

Police department officer headcount and budget data was gathered from a combination of each city’s police department website, published city budgets, and phone calls/emails/tweets to each department.

Demographic information was gathered from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Area Vibes.

Climate data gathered from accuweather.com and intellicast.com.

Population density was calculated using the city populations from the FBI UCR reports and city land area from wikipedia.