Voters in Groom will cast their ballots in a federal by-election this Saturday — but in the conservative heartland, the result is all but a foregone conclusion.
Key points: The federal seat of Groom in southern Queensland has only ever been held by the Liberals, Nationals or LNP
The federal seat of Groom in southern Queensland has only ever been held by the Liberals, Nationals or LNP Locals will vote for their new MP at a by-election this Saturday, after John McVeigh resigned in September
Locals will vote for their new MP at a by-election this Saturday, after John McVeigh resigned in September The LNP won 70.5 per cent of the two-candidate preferred vote at the 2019 election and is expected to win the by-election
Based in a rich agricultural district on Queensland's Darling Downs, Groom has been in Liberal, National and LNP hands since it was gazetted in 1984.
Toowoomba local Stewart Dorman describes the region as "ultra conservative".
"I joke that a two-headed fish would win in Groom as long as it was LNP," he said.
As a former taxi driver, Mr Dorman has had thousands of political conversations with fellow Groom voters while driving around the Garden City over the years.
Toowoomba is the largest population centre in the seat of Groom. ( ABC Southern Qld: Nathan Morris )
"They're pretty rusted-on — 'that's the way dad voted and that's the way grandad voted'," Mr Dorman said.
Polls and previous elections point to a comfortable win for the LNP's Garth Hamilton, who unexpectedly won pre-selection despite the Prime Minister and business leaders calling for a strong female candidate.
One local LNP member, who did not wish to be named, told the ABC the decision to pre-select Mr Hamilton almost prompted her to vote Labor as she was concerned the party wasn't moving with the times.
But, with the LNP winning more than 70 per cent of the two-candidate preferred vote in the 2019 election, those concerns seem unlikely to change its fortunes.
How do voters feel?
Michelle says she plans to vote LNP as the candidate has been "out and about". ( ABC Southern Qld: Nathan Morris )
On a weekday lunchtime in Toowoomba's main street, the ABC canvassed voters' views on living in such a safe seat.
Op shop manager Michelle, aged in her 50s, said she had "no interest" in politics and was only voting in the by-election because it was mandatory.
"At this stage nothing's changing," she said.
Michelle planned to vote for the LNP's Garth Hamilton, the only candidate who had visited her shop.
Stewart Dorman says Groom voters are "pretty rusted-on!" ( ABC Southern Queensland: Peter Gunders )
"He's been out and he's been about," she said.
Teresa, who's in her 60s, was left-leaning but still followed local politics closely, despite knowing her preferred party was unlikely to win.
"I'm just ever hopeful that there might be a change," she said.
Teresa believes the LNP has become "too comfortable" in the seat and wishes more independents would run.
"I just think they would represent actually the Toowoomba area rather than toe the line with the party politics," she said.
No pork-barrelling in a safe seat
Professor of Government and Economics at the University of Southern Queensland, Geoff Cockfield, said Groom was one of the few "true safe seats" left in Australia, with most areas experiencing significant demographic change, along with highly volatile voting.
"It matters in things like the attention the seat gets at election time," he said.
"You miss out on the pork-barrelling — new sports stadiums, parks, change rooms, all those visible things that are promised.
"And while you won't necessarily miss out on big infrastructure projects [in a safe seat], you go to the back of the queue.
Rachel Barron says she "always votes for the underdog". ( ABC Southern Qld: Nathan Morris )
"If Groom was more marginal, the second Toowoomba range crossing would have come sooner."
While Toowoomba Chamber of Commerce CEO Todd Ruhl wouldn't be drawn in to the discussion on pork-barrelling, he did say a safe seat provided an "air of stability".
"It does help when the government is in power," he said.
"[But] history shows us that if you're in a marginal seat — potentially, but not always — you get a chance to ask for those big projects that are great for small business."
LNP candidate Garth Hamilton, a mining engineer, said he wasn't taking his party's popularity for granted.
"I'd be a strong voice within the Morrison Government," he said.
"I've got a great example set by [former MPs] Ian MacFarlane and John McVeigh in getting things done for Groom and I'll work hard to continue to do that."
The ALP's candidate in the 2020 by-election is Chris Meibusch, who has run unsuccessfully for the seat twice before.
Veterinarian Sandra Jephcott, for the Sustainable Australia Party, and vape shop owner Craig Farquharson, for the Liberal Democrats, are also running.
'Underdog' voters not disheartened
Back on the streets, Toowoomba resident Matthew Baldwin said he had noticed the younger generation was far more politically engaged than his peers in their 30s.
Toowoomba's Matthew Baldwin says people in their 20s seem more politically minded than his peers in their 30s. ( ABC Southern Qld: Nathan Morris )
"I would probably not vote for the LNP myself, so the fact that it's so safe doesn't reflect on how I'm going to vote," he said.
"It doesn't dishearten me that it's this way.
"You're always going to have your opinion and your vote and it might not be the one that gets in. But as time goes on, possibly it could happen."
Young mum Rachel Barron, from Cambooya, said she took pride in voting "for the underdog".
"I'd like to shake things up a bit more," she said.
"I don't know if I could make a difference ... against [the LNP's] 70 per cent but I guess it all starts with one person at a time."
Groom, highlighted in green, within the state of Queensland.
Portrait of Jephcott.
Voters in the Australian  of  are scheduled to go to the polls in a  this week following the resignation of  MP  for family reasons.

Groom is located in the state of Queensland, and is centred around the city of . At the last , the Liberal National Party, Queensland's dominant conservative party, won this seat by over 70% of the , and since the seat's creation in 1984, it has been held by conservative political parties. 

Some political analysts considered this a foregone conclusion, with analyst Kevin Bonham having declared it on his blog as "Australia's most boring by-election", however Bonham noted the size of the swing may have been indicative of the dominant centre left 's general performance in Queensland. There was a 4.2% swing against the Labor Party in the state of Queensland at the previous federal election.

''Wikinews'' spoke to one of the four candidates running in the by-election, Sandra Jephcott, who is running for the  party. Sustainable Australia describes itself as a "independent community movement from the political centre". According to the party's website, Jephcott is a  and farmer, who has completed a veterinary degree from the University of Queensland, as well as a  at  and a Master of Science at . With ''Wikinews'', Jephcott discussed climate change, COVID-19, water security, and foreign ownership.