At 3am on 11 January US military forces raided the Iranian liaison office in the Kurdish capital Arbil and detained five Iranian officials who are still prisoners.
The attack marked a significant escalation in the confrontation between the US and Iran.
Britain is inevitably involved in this as America's only important foreign ally in Iraq. In fact the US raid could have had even more significant consequences if the Americans had captured the Iranian official they were targeting. Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of the Kurdish president Massoud Barzani, told The Independent that "they were after Mohammed Jafari, the deputy chairman of Iran's National Security Council."
It is a measure of the difficulty America has in getting its close allies in Iraq, notably the Kurds, to join it in confronting Iran that Mr Jafari was in Arbil as part of an Iranian delegation. He had just visited Mr Barzani in his mountain-top headquarters at Salahudin and earlier he met with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in Dokan in eastern Kurdistan.
The political links between Iran and Iraq will be difficult to sever. Most Iraqi political leaders, Arab or Kurdish, were exiles in Iran or in Syria. They are also conscious that one day the US will withdraw from Iraq but Iran will always be there.
Some businessmen in Arbil scent profitable opportunities as the UN tightens its embargo on trade with Iran, announced at the weekend by the UN. As official trade is squeezed, they foresee remunerative possibilities for smuggling goods in and out of Iran.
Economically, northern Iraq needs Iran more than Iran needs it. Iranian petrol commands a premium price because it is considered pure and Kurdistan is eager to increase its supply of electricity, of which it is permanently short, from Iran.
In terms of US domestic and international politics, an American confrontation with Iran on the nuclear issue probably makes sense. Washington can rally support against Iran in a way that it cannot do when it looks for support for its occupation of Iraq. Seeing the US bogged down in Iraq, the Iranians may have overplaying their hand in developing nuclear power.
Inside Iraq, confrontation with Iran does not make much political sense. All America's allies in Iraq have close ties with Iran. The only anti-Iranian community in Iraq is the five million Sunni who have been fighting the US for the past four years.
The US raid on Arbil in January would have had far more serious consequences if Mr Jafari had been abducted. As it was, the seizure of five Iranian officials seems to have set the scene for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards seizing 15 British sailors and marines.
Los Cuerpos de la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica de Irán capturaron el viernes (23) a 15 marinos de la Armada Real que se desplazaban en botes inflables sobre aguas territoriales iraníes, según afirmó el gobierno de ese país.

La captura se produjo cuando los marinos británicos hacían una redada a un barco de carga sospechoso de contrabandear automóviles. En ese momento, barcos militares iraníes los rodearon y los capturaron.

El ministro de relaciones exteriores de Irán, Manouchehr Mottaki, acusó al grupo de militares de haber cometido un "acto de agresión" contra la República Islámica. "El cargo contra ellos es el de entrada ilegal en las aguas territoriales iraníes", dijo Muttaki en conferencia de prensa entregada en Nueva York.

Por su parte, el primer ministro británico, Tony Blair, afirmó que el incidente era "serio" y demandó de Irán la "liberación inmediata" de los militares. Al día siguiente, Blair calificó la captura como "injustificada e incorrecta". Gran Bretaña insiste en que sus fuerzas navales operaban en aguas territoriales iraquíes.

El incidente se presentó horas antes de que el Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas aprobara el endurecimiento de sanciones contra Irán por rehusarse a detener el proceso de enriquecimiento de uranio.

Algunos grupos políticos en Irán empezaron a hacer presión para que los capturados sean llevados a juicio por violación de la soberanía, mientras que grupos más radicales quieren que su liberación se haga sólo a cambio de la liberación de seis diplomáticos iraníes y varios otros agentes capturados por las tropas estadounidenses en Iraq y que todavía permanecen retenidos. La prensa árabe afirma que Irán podría estar buscando la liberación del general retirado Ali Reza Askari, presumiblemente secuestrado por la CIA y la Mossad el 9 de diciembre en Estambul.

Según analistas el hecho constituye una escalada en un tipo de confrontación por medio de escaramuzas, toma de rehenes, guerras ''proxy'', guerra de inteligencia entre las partes enfrentadas que en cualquier momento puede desembocar en hechos más serios con resultados fatales.