Polls: Berlusconi trailing challenger in Italy vote
Conservative premier is seeking third term; leftist Prodi is ex-ECU president
Alberto Pizzoli / AFP - Getty Images
Italy's center-left leader Romano Prodi, right, takes a cappuccino with his wife Flavia in a Rome's central bar on Monday.
MSNBC News Services ROME - Center-left leader Romano Prodi looks set to beat Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in Italy's general election, winning a majority in both houses of parliament, according to exit polls released on Monday. Two Nexus polls, issued 45 minutes apart, indicated that Prodi's coalition had garnered between 50 and 54 percent of the vote in both the upper and lower chambers of parliament, while Berlusconi's coalition had between 45 and 49 percent. Both exit polls, which had a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, did not give an immediate breakdown for seats in the lower Chamber of Deputies. Nexus will release projections for the Senate, stemming from the initial vote count, at 4:30 p.m. (10:30 a.m. EDT), and for the lower house at 6:30 p.m. (12:30 p.m. EDT) for the Chamber. The margin of error for the projections ranges from 3 percentage points for the first projection to 1 percentage point for the last. Berlusconi's center-right bloc was shown winning 45 to 49 percent of the vote in both houses according to the poll, broadcast by state television RAI. A separate poll by Piepoli, shown on Sky Italia television, showed former European Commission president Prodi winning 52 percent of the vote in the lower house, to give it 340 seats, and around 167 seats of the 315 seats up for grabs in the Senate. The poll was released on the final day of voting to deliver a verdict on Berlusconi, the billionaire media mogul who failed to jump-start a flat economy as the nation's longest-serving premier since World War II. Exit polls in Italy have called past elections incorrectly, most famously in 1996 when they failed to predict that Prodi had beaten Berlusconi. U.S. ally vs. ex-EU official
A staunch U.S. ally, Berlusconi, 69, founded a business empire that expanded to include Italy's main private TV networks, the Milan soccer team, as well as publishing, advertising and insurance interests. He was battling to win his third premiership with a center-right bloc - an often squabbling coalition of his Forza Italia party, the former neo-fascist National Alliance, pro-Vatican forces and the anti-immigrant Northern League. Prodi, 66, was making his comeback bid with a potentially unwieldy coalition of moderate Christian Democrats, Greens, liberals, former Communists and Communists. Economy, not Iraq, at center stage
One potential issue - Iraq - was largely deflated before the campaign began, when Berlusconi announced that Italy's troops there would be withdrawn by year's end. Berlusconi, who won the premiership in 1994 and 2001, had strongly supported President Bush despite fierce opposition among Italians against the war. Prodi has said he would bring the troops home as soon as possible, security conditions permitting. The ailing economy was at center stage, although neither candidate offered any bold ideas for its revival. Berlusconi promised to abolish a homeowner's property tax. Prodi said he would revive an inheritance tax abolished by Berlusconi, but only for the richest. He also promised to cut payroll taxes to try to spur hiring. Critics contended that Berlusconi, instead of helping the economy, used his comfortable majority in Parliament to push through laws to protect his business interests and to help him in his years of judicial woes. Berlusconi contends the laws benefit all Italians and that he has been the victim of left-leaning prosecutors. Berlusconi depicted Prodi as a front-man for Communists in a campaign to damage Italian democracy. Italians were voting under a proportional system, thanks to a law pushed through by Berlusconi's government to increase the chances that his smaller allies would win seats in Parliament. Hours before the polls opened Sunday, three gasoline bombs were hurled at a polling station in the northeastern town of Vittorio Veneto, and fliers found at the scene denounced both coalitions, police said. No one was hurt. © 2006 MSNBC Interactive
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Italian opposition leader Romano Prodi, leader of the center-left coalition ''L'Unione'' (''Lit.'' "The Union"), was declared the victor today in parliamentary elections held Sunday and Monday, but Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has yet to concede his office.

Official but not yet confirmed results indicate that ''L'Unione'' won control of the lower house or Chamber of Deputies with 49.8% of the vote to 49.7% for Berlusconi's center-right Casa delle Libertà (''Lit.'' "The House of Freedoms") coalition.  The winning party automatically receives a minimum of 55% of the seats in the lower house, giving Prodi at least 340 seats in the 630-seat Chamber.

Berlusconi, however, claims that his party would control the 315-seat Senate by one vote, resulting in a split parliament. The current results, however, show Prodi with a 158-156 lead in the Senate, giving him enough seats of support in both houses. Berlusconi's spokesman also indicated that his party has requested a recount.

Italian law requires that the prime minister receive the support of both houses of Parliament.  Should the two houses be controlled by different coalitions, the stalemate would result in new elections.  A caretaker government would rule in the meantime.