If you've watched any television at all in recent days, you couldn't have missed the Conservative pre-campaign ads.
Taking full advantage of their wealth before the official election campaign starts and spending limits kick in, the Conservatives have been softening up the voters by saturation-bombing them with TV ads.
With so much money, you'd think that the Conservatives could afford English-language ads that don't sound as though the "main street Canadians" in them are seeing their lines for the first time on a cue card just off camera. And at the end, it's hard to tell whether Stephen Harper is trying to smile or grimacing with the effort to convey warmth.
The characters in the French-language spots seem more natural, maybe because they've had more acting experience, as the Quebec ministers in Harper's cabinet. In these ads, the ministers remind each other of the government's achievements, which the Bloc Québécois can never match because it will never hold power.
But even if the English-language ads are artistic failures, they might be effective politically, as attack ads so subtle that they don't even mention their target: Stéphane Dion.
While the English-language ads also mention accomplishments of the government, they are mostly about Harper. And by referring to his "strong leadership," they invite the viewer to compare the Conservative leader with his unmentioned Liberal counterpart. Who do you want for your next prime minister, they ask: Harper, or that other guy?
The ads aren't the only evidence that the Conservatives have a leadership advantage over the Liberals.
Last weekend, it was reported that the Liberals will emphasize their team of candidates in the campaign, and have such personalities as former leadership candidates Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay play prominent roles. In other words, they will be playing "hide the leader," to the extent that is possible in an election campaign.
And yesterday, The Gazette reported that 50 per cent of Canadians chose Harper as the federal leader who would make the best prime minister in an Ipsos Reid-Canwest-Global poll conducted Aug. 26-28.
Among the leaders of the three parties competing across the country, Dion finished last as the choice of only 20 per cent, behind Jack Layton of the New Democratic Party at 31 per cent (proportions of respondents expressing a preference were rounded off to the nearest percentage point).
"If this election is going to be a referendum on leadership," said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker, "Stephen Harper has a heck of an advantage."
And Dion began the week once again on the defensive over the main plank in his election platform, his "green shift" environmental policy.
After another recent Ipsos-Canwest-Global poll showed support for the policy slipping, Dion bowed to pressure from within his caucus and modified his controversial proposed carbon tax.
The modification, announced yesterday in Winnipeg, would provide financial aid to farmers, truckers and rural residents facing higher fuel costs as a result of the tax, which is intended to discourage consumption of fossil fuels causing greenhouse-gas emissions.
Were Harper to make a similar policy concession, he might be praised for being flexible and responding to criticism for a change, because he is supposed to be stubborn and rigid.
But Dion's concession is more likely to be seen as perhaps only the first in a series of retreats from a position that was poorly chosen in the first place and a sign of weakness. That's because Dion is the Joe Clark of the 21st century.
Like the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Dion has acquired an image as a political bumbler who slipped between stronger candidates to become leader of his party, and has been struggling to bring it under control ever since.
His concession on the carbon tax might preserve the main plank of his election platform and appease his caucus, at least for now. But it might also weaken his leadership further.
dmacpher@thegazette.canwest.com
Stephen Harper in 2006, delivering his 2006 election acceptance speech.
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper may not have dropped the writ for an election yet, but his party is airing advertisements on both television and radio.



Because the election is not yet official — though it is scheduled for October 19, 2009 and could be held as soon as October of this year — the ads do not count against the Conservative Party's campaign spending limit. They have been airing since Thursday.

The advertisement includes various Canadians making statements about Harper, as opposed to the Conservative platform. One woman shown in a parking lot says that she likes "the idea that he's a family man with young children."

The Canadian Press notes that all four major party leaders are married and have children.

Other statements include "he's doing a good job," "I've never been so proud to be Canadian," "he's on the right track" and "I like him."

Political communication expert Jonathan Rose of Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario told the Canadian Press: "By relying on typical Canadians in the ads, the Conservatives are hoping that the voter will find the connection powerful. Unfortunately, these kind of ads are based on assertions, not arguments. There is no evidence given to support the claims made in them."

A writer for ''The Montreal Gazette'' comments that, "at the end, it's hard to tell whether Stephen Harper is trying to smile or grimacing with the effort to convey warmth."

===Kids TV among media buy===

The Conservative Party ads are airing during children's programming, amongst other air times, presumed to be an attempt to reach parents.

''Gazette'' writer Elizabeth Thompson noted that her daughter had seen one of the ads during an airing of ''SpongeBob SquarePants'' on television station YTV. Thompson criticized the choice to air the ads in the time slot, after her daughter repeated the ad claims "matter-of-factly".

SpongeBob SquarePants was shown in a recent poll to be watched by 24 percent of parents with their child. About 41 percent of YTV's audience is above the age of majority, and 68 percent  of its reach composition, according to fall 2007 statistics by BBM Nielsen Media Research.