Bush Will Not Stop Afghan Opium Trade
Charles R. Smith
Thursday, March 28, 2002
The Bush administration has decided not to destroy the opium crop in Afghanistan. President Bush, who previously linked the Afghan drug trade directly to terrorism, has now decided not to destroy the Afghan opium crop.
"The war in Afghanistan will be decided within the next six weeks based on whether or not the poppy crops go to market," stated a U.S. intelligence official who recently returned from Afghanistan.
The source, who requested that he not be identified, noted that the opium poppy fields are blooming and ready for harvest. U.S. forces could destroy the crops using aerial spraying techniques, but no such actions are planned.
"If the estimated 3,000 tons of opium reaches market, it will lead to a new upsurge in international terrorism and a great loss in international credibility for the Bush administration and the United States' ability to conduct war in the 21st century. America's enemies throughout the world from China to North Korea to Iran will be emboldened by this lack of strategic vision and political will," said the source.
U.N. Ban on Opium Trade
The U.S. and all its allies signed onto a worldwide ban on opium sales. In January 2002, the U.N. issued a report on the Afghan opium production, noting that allied forces needed to act quickly to destroy the 2002 opium poppy crops before the end of spring.
"The global importance of the ban on opium poppy cultivation and trafficking in Afghanistan is enormous," states the January 2002 U.N. report on drug trafficking.
"Afghanistan has been the main source of illicit opium: 70 percent of global illicit opium production in 2000 and up to 90 percent of heroin in European drug markets originated from Afghanistan," states the U.N. report.
"There are reliable indications that opium poppy cultivation has resumed since October 2001 in some areas (such as the southern provinces Uruzgan, Helmand, Nangarhar and Kandahar), following the effective implementation of the Taliban ban on cultivation in 2001, not only because of the breakdown in law and order, but also because the farmers are desperate to find a means of survival following the prolonged drought," states the U.N. report.
This Is Your CIA
Several sources inside Capitol Hill noted that the CIA opposes the destruction of the Afghan opium supply because to do so might destabilize the Pakistani government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf. According to these sources, Pakistani intelligence had threatened to overthrow President Musharraf if the crops were destroyed.
The threat to overthrow Musharraf is motivated in part by Islamic radical groups linked to the Pakistani intelligence service, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The radical groups reportedly obtain their primary funding through opium production and trade.
"Pakistan's intelligence service is corrupt, unreliable, and we don't owe them a damn thing. The CIA has a very checkered past as far as who they choose to get in the sack with. Maybe it's time to stop being clever and do the right thing," stated another source close to the Bush administration.
"If they [the CIA] are in fact opposing the destruction of the Afghan opium trade, it'll only serve to perpetuate the belief that the CIA is an agency devoid of morals; off on their own program rather than that of our constitutionally elected government," stated the source.
"If we don't take this opportunity to destroy the opium production in Afghanistan, we are no better than the Taliban, who did nothing to stop it despite claims to the contrary," he concluded.
This Is Your CIA on Drugs
The CIA decision not to stop the Afghan opium production has been greeted silently by U.S. allies. According to intelligence sources, both the U.K. and French governments have quietly given their approval of the American policy by not acting in accordance with the U.N. global ban on opium traffic.
However, one foreign intelligence official was quick to point out that the CIA has a history of supporting international drug trafficking.
"The CIA did almost the identical thing during the Vietnam War, which had catastrophic consequences – the increase in the heroin trade in the USA beginning in the 1970s is directly attributable to the CIA. The CIA has been complicit in the global drug trade for years, so I guess they just want to carry on their favorite business," noted an allied intelligence official who works closely with U.S. law enforcement.
"The sole reason why organized crime groups and terrorists have the power that they do is all because of drug trafficking. Like the old saying, 'those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it,'" stated the official.
TV War on Terror
According to intelligence sources, a simple grant of $200 a year, no more than $20 million in total, sent to each poorly paid Afghan farmer could stop all opium production. The U.S. war in Afghanistan has already consumed an estimated $40 billion.
After spending millions of dollars on a U.S. advertising campaign that linked illegal drug sales to terrorism, the Bush administration has opted not to destroy Afghanistan's opium production over fears that such an act may destabilize Pakistan.
Clearly, ending opium production inside Afghanistan could be more effective than spending millions on TV advertising. The lack of action in Afghanistan against the drug trade shows that the Bush administration has adopted a hypocritical and flawed policy in its war on terror.
The current U.S. law enforcement tactics aimed at slick TV ads and seizing terrorist money will not stop the flow of illegal drug money flowing into the hands of Osama bin Laden. If the Bush administration is truly interested in ending terrorism, then it must start in the poppy fields of Afghanistan.
Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
Bush Administration
War on Terrorism
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Opium poppy. Photo by Catherine Giayvia
Most heroin sold in Europe comes from Afghanistan's poppies. This past week, the 2005 opium harvest was in full view and going full speed in Afghanistan. The cultivators gathering resin from the crop are operating even near the main road through Kandahar and the farmers are out gathering resin from opium poppies in full view.

Last year 80% of the world's opium came from Afghanistan and production is up over 239% since 2003, according to U.S. government estimates.  Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of illegal drugs.

In 2002  ads, the White House sent out the message that "drugs fund terrorists".  Doug Wankel, a former U.S.  (DEA) official, says the opium industry is "financing terrorism. It's financing subversive activities. It's financing warlordism... And if it's a threat to the government of Afghanistan, it's a direct threat to the national security interests of the United States."

"The Bush administration has decided not to destroy the opium crop in Afghanistan," stated a U.S. intelligence official returning from Afghanistan in relation to the 60% smaller 2002 crop. The source, who requested that he not be identified, noted "U.S. forces could destroy the crops using aerial spraying techniques, but no such actions are planned."

U.S. plans to spray the crops were canceled at the request of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who has called for  or "holy war", but is concerned that aerial spraying could be harmful to the health of Afghan villagers.  The U.S. claims that the spraying would be safe, but is granting Karzai's request.

Karzai has indicated that he may change his mind if other U.S. strategies fail to halt the opium. Congress budgeted $774 million for anti-drug operations in Afghanistan just this year.
Black tar (raw) opium seized in Afghanistan, spring 2005. Photo by Bentlogic.
==== Estimating the value of the crop ====

The CIA reports in ''From Flowers to Heroin that'' it takes 10 kg of opium to make 1 kg of 90% pure heroin. The CIA states that impurities are introduced into the processed heroin before it hits the street, making the purity of the end consumer product about 40%.  That implies that 10 kg of opium makes about 2.25 kg of 40% pure heroin.

The Guardian reports that the 2002 opium harvest was 3400 metric tons. Using the conversion supplied by the CIA, 2002's 3400 opium harvest could be converted into 765 metric tons of heroin.  According to the International Narcotics Control Board, the 2003 opium harvest was 3600 metric tons.  Using the estimated 239% increase of the present harvast over 2003, it means that the 2005 harvest is about 8600 metric tons.

The 2002 street price of heroin in the UK was about 60 £ per GRAM, or (assuming the present 1.89 USD to 1 £ exchange) 113.40 USD per GRAM. As the supply goes up the price will come down some, so for this calculation only the 2002 figures will be used. If all the opium harvest is converted into heroin and all of it is sold at the UK street price, the total street value of the harvest is 86.7 billion USD. (765 metric tons x 1000 kg/metric ton x 1000 grams/kg x 113.4 USD/gram = about 86.7 billion USD.)  To the extent the 2002 numbers are valid today, the street value of the 2005 harvest should be roughly twice the street value of the 2002 harvest, about 173 billion USD.

To put these numbers in perspective, the total market capitalization of Ford, General Motors and Daimler Chrysler combined is about 76 billion USD. The total market capitalization of Toyota and Honda combined is about 167 billion USD.

==== No Statement by the Financial Action Task Force  ====

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) was formed to promote harmonization of international antimoney laundering (AML) laws. Despite the fact that tens of billions of USDs are generated from the Afgan opium harvest alone, the FATF has not added Afghanistan to its blacklist of uncooperative nations.  One has to wonder, therefore, what the poppy farmers are doing with their share of the money that escapes the notice of the banking system and the FATF.