Template:Future election in Canada
Template:Infobox canadian election The 40th Canadian federal election is scheduled to be held October 19 2009, in accordance with the provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which were amended in the 1st Session of the 39th Parliament. However, it is widely suspected that an election will be called for October 2008[1]. In the past, the Prime Minister could select an election date of his or her choosing, usually at the four-year mark or when he or she believed that his or her party had the best chance of winning the election. However, in 2007 the Parliament of Canada passed a law fixing federal election dates every four years and scheduling the next election date as October 19 2009. As the current parliament is led by a minority government, it is possible that an election will occur sooner, in 2008 or earlier in 2009, as the law does not limit the powers of the Governor General to dissolve Parliament at any time, such as when opposition parties down the government on a vote of confidence. No minority government in Canada to date has existed for a full four-year term.
2006 election
More than 65% of all eligible voters cast ballots in the 39th Canadian general election. The Conservative Party received the most votes, with 36% of the vote and 124 seats (now 127). The Liberal Party lowered its total number of seats won to 103 seats (now 96), taking 30% of the vote. The Bloc Québécois lost three seats, lowering its total to 51 seats (now 48), with 10.5% of the vote. The New Democratic Party retained its seats held at the dissolution of Parliament, and won 11 more, making its total 29 seats (now 30), with 17.5% of the vote. The Green Party received 4.5% of the vote, a minimal increase from the previous election, but did not win any seats. Independents and other parties constituted 1% of the total vote.
Events since the 2006 election
Since the election, David Emerson and Wajid Khan, who were both elected as Liberal Members of Parliament (MPs), have joined the Conservative Party, while Garth Turner, elected as a Conservative, was expelled from the Conservative caucus. Turner initially sat as an independent, but then joined the Liberal caucus on February 6 2007. Joe Comuzzi, also elected as a Liberal, was expelled from the Liberal caucus for supporting the budget in 2007.[2] Joe Comuzzi has since joined the Conservative Party of Canada. There were also by-elections in Repentigny and London North Centre after the death of Benoît Sauvageau and resignation of Joe Fontana. Both by-elections reelected a member from the incumbent party.
Canadians' next chance to go to the polls will be Canada's 40th federal election. Harper's government could formally last until late 2009, although an election may be triggered in 2008 if the government falls on a motion of confidence or if the Governor General decides (on the advice of the Prime Minister) to drop the writ. The latter option seems most likely.
The parliament preceding this election is led by the smallest minority ever in the Canadian House of Commons — a government with just 40.6% of the seats — and led by the Conservative Party of Canada. Although the average length of a minority parliament in Canada is 1 year, 5 months, and 22 days, minorities led by the former Progressive Conservative Party tended to be much shorter: the longest previous Conservative minority was just 6 months and 19 days.[3] The 39th Parliament became Canada's longest serving Conservative minority on October 24, 2006.
On May 30, 2006, the Conservatives tabled Bill C-16 which would amend the Canada Elections Act which would provide for fixed elections. The bill states that there will be an election in 2009, and it would be the first to have a fixed election date, the third Monday in October (October 19, 2009). However, the government may still fall before then, and there may be an election still in 2008. The bill received royal assent on May 3, 2007.
It was rumoured by political pundits that Harper would like to have had an election in early 2007 in hopes of attaining a majority of the Commons seats. However, it was also speculated that he would hold off calling an election until after Quebec held its provincial election, so as to measure the strength of federalist feelings in that province.
On February 15, 2007, the Globe and Mail reported that the Conservatives were preparing for an election expected to be called shortly after the 2007 budget, due on March 19 2007. Part of the reason for the timing of the election was given as strengthening Conservative poll numbers coupled with the desire to take advantage of the perception that Harper has "better leadership qualities than Liberal counterpart Stéphane Dion".[4]
On March 17, 2007, an internal Conservative Party memo was leaked to the Canadian Press, telling members that they "need to be ready to campaign within the next week." The memo asked members to donate $75 to $150 to help to fund the early stages of the election campaign.
None of these predictions for a federal election to occur in 2007 proved true, but the majority of pundits still believe a federal election will be triggered before the fixed election date of October 19, 2009 for sometime in 2008.[citation needed]
Stephen Harper hinted at the possibility of dissolving parliament on August 14, 2008. Speaking in Newfoundland and Labrador, he cited Stéphane Dion as the main player in making Parliament become increasingly "dysfunctional". "I’m going to have to make a judgment in the next little while as to whether or not this Parliament can function productively," Harper said. This came after repeated confidence votes that resulted in the NDP and Bloc parties not voting in favour of the government, and the Liberal parties voting in favour or not attending the vote. Rumours of a possible fall election were further fuelled by Haper's announcement of a fourth federal byelection for September 22 in the Toronto riding of Don Valley West.[5][6]
On August 27, 2008 Harper asked Gov. General Jean to cancel her trip to the Paralympic games in Beijing, adding fuel to speculation that the Prime Minister will seek a dissolution.
On August 30, 2008 Independent MP Blair Wilson announced that he had joined the Green Party of Canada as its first Member of Parliament.
Timeline
Results
Template:40th Canadian federal election
Target seats
The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 15 seats in which they came closest to winning but did not. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.
These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 2006 election.
Up to 15 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.
* Indicates incumbent not running again. To clarify further; this is a list of federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin as a percentage of the vote over the party whose list the seat is on (not the same as the margin of victory if the party potentially "targeting" the seat in that list did not finish second in the previous election).
Lawn signs for all the major candidates decorate an intersection during the London North Centre by-election
¹ Won by the NDP in a by-election with more than a 15% margin over the Liberals.
The Green Party of Canada did not come within 15% of winning any riding in the 2006 election, but since came 9.0% short of winning London North Centre, ON (Lib) in a by-election.
Cabinet ministers elected by a margin of less than 10% in 2006
Opinion polls
The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.
Leadership polls
Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:
Sometimes the information is further broken down, as in this Strategic Counsel poll conducted from February 15 to February 18, 2007:
The Strategic Counsel also conducts occasional polls of the overall impression of the party leaders: favourable or not favourable (favourable percentage shown).[11]
40th Canadian federal election (candidates)
By party:
Incumbent MPs not running for re-election
Conservatives
Liberals
Bloc Québécois
New Democrats
References
Election coverage
Opinion polls
Projections and predictions
Blogs
Party websites
Parties with representation in the House of Commons
Stephen Harper in 2006, delivering his 2006 election acceptance speech.
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper may not have dropped the writ for an election yet, but his party is airing advertisements on both television and radio.



Because the election is not yet official — though it is scheduled for October 19, 2009 and could be held as soon as October of this year — the ads do not count against the Conservative Party's campaign spending limit. They have been airing since Thursday.

The advertisement includes various Canadians making statements about Harper, as opposed to the Conservative platform. One woman shown in a parking lot says that she likes "the idea that he's a family man with young children."

The Canadian Press notes that all four major party leaders are married and have children.

Other statements include "he's doing a good job," "I've never been so proud to be Canadian," "he's on the right track" and "I like him."

Political communication expert Jonathan Rose of Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario told the Canadian Press: "By relying on typical Canadians in the ads, the Conservatives are hoping that the voter will find the connection powerful. Unfortunately, these kind of ads are based on assertions, not arguments. There is no evidence given to support the claims made in them."

A writer for ''The Montreal Gazette'' comments that, "at the end, it's hard to tell whether Stephen Harper is trying to smile or grimacing with the effort to convey warmth."

===Kids TV among media buy===

The Conservative Party ads are airing during children's programming, amongst other air times, presumed to be an attempt to reach parents.

''Gazette'' writer Elizabeth Thompson noted that her daughter had seen one of the ads during an airing of ''SpongeBob SquarePants'' on television station YTV. Thompson criticized the choice to air the ads in the time slot, after her daughter repeated the ad claims "matter-of-factly".

SpongeBob SquarePants was shown in a recent poll to be watched by 24 percent of parents with their child. About 41 percent of YTV's audience is above the age of majority, and 68 percent  of its reach composition, according to fall 2007 statistics by BBM Nielsen Media Research.