A woman walks past 'No' and 'Yes' campaign posters for France's referendum on the EU constitution, in a street of Rennes, western France, Saturday, May 28, 2005 (AP / Franck Prevel)
French prepare for referendum on EU constitution
Associated Press
PARIS  Europe's landmark new constitution faces a make-or-break referendum in France on Sunday, when a polarized nation decides whether to boost or block the next giant leap forward in a half-century of efforts to unite the continent.
After months of impassioned debate over the merits and drawbacks of the European Union's historic first charter, the complex business of getting 25 countries to agree on an ambitious roadmap for their future hung on the two simplest words in the French language: "oui" and "non.
The latest poll gave the "no" camp a 52 per cent lead over the "yes" camp's 48 per cent, keeping alive the possibility that the treaty could face a humiliating defeat in the nation that played a lead role in drafting it.
All 25 EU member states must ratify the constitution before it can take effect in 2006, and a French rejection would be the first in Europe.
A French "yes" -- coupled with improbable approval in another referendum Wednesday in the Netherlands, where opposition is running at about 60 per cent -- could give the charter unstoppable momentum as a dozen other nations decide its fate in months to come.
But a defeat here would resonate even more powerfully across the continent: In 1951, two Frenchmen -- Robert Schuman and Jean Monnet -- launched the six-nation European Coal and Steel Community, the precursor to today's EU.
"If we vote 'no,' we may be left out of everything," said Lucien Steinamm, a 23-year-old gardener among the more than 20 percent undecided voters.
The possibility that the EU's latest bold attempt to knit together its ragtag club of nations could wind up stillborn had many wondering what might lie ahead.
"If there was to be a French 'no' vote -- a serious big rejection of the treaty -- followed by a rejection in the Netherlands, then I think that this treaty is in effect dead,'' said John Palmer, an analyst with the European Policy Center in Brussels, Belgium.
"The danger then would be that we would enter a period of profound stagnation, maybe for two, three or more years, until we have new elections in France and some of the other key countries," he warned.
Backers say the constitution, which EU leaders signed last October, will streamline EU operations and decision-making, make the bloc more accessible to its 450 million citizens, and give it a president and foreign minister so it can speak with one voice in world affairs.
Opponents fear it will strip nations of national identity and sovereignty and trigger an influx of cheap labour just as European powers such as France and Germany struggle mightily to contain double-digit unemployment.
Nine nations -- Austria, Hungary, Italy, Germany, Greece, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain -- already have ratified it by referendum or parliamentary vote.
In Paris, where bitter debate over the charter has so dominated cafe and household chatter that even bakers are selling large France-shaped "oui" and "non'' gingerbread cookies, President Jacques Chirac put his government's credibility on the line with an all-out campaign to persuade nearly 42 million sharply divided voters to say "yes." Voters on French overseas islands across the globe were expected at the polls Saturday, a day ahead of electors in mainland France, to say "oui'' or "non'' to Europe's groundbreaking new constitution.
The first voting was scheduled for 8 a.m. (1000 GMT) on St. Pierre and Miquelon, a group of tiny French-held islands south of Newfoundland, Canada. Other territories voting ahead of the mainland included Martinique and Guadeloupe in the Caribbean, and Tahiti and New Caledonia in the South Pacific.
If polls prove right, France will be the first country to vote down the charter designed to strengthen the European Union. The latest survey Friday night gave the "no'' camp a 52 percent lead over the "yes" camp's 48 percent.
A French rejection of the constitution would throw Europe's forward momentum into disarray, especially if the Dutch follow France's lead in their referendum three days later.
All 25 EU countries must approve the charter, either in parliament or by referendums, for it to take effect as planned on Nov. 1, 2006.
The constitution is meant to be the EU's next big step in a 50-year process of bringing together nations and peoples divided for centuries by war.
It would streamline EU decision-making and give the bloc a president and foreign minister. Big countries like France would get a greater say in EU decisions. But French opponents fear it would lead to a loss of sovereignty and an influx of cheap labour.
The German Bundesrat ("federal council") voted to approve the European Union's drafted constitution on Friday. Only the government of the state Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania  abstained from voting. All of the other 15 states voted to approve the treaty. A French referendum to be held on Sunday is hovering on the edge of rejecting the constitution.  If it does, and if the Netherlands rejects it next week as expected, that could destroy the chances of the constitution's acceptance.

All 25 member states of the European Union have to approve the constitution for it to take effect.  France's support is considered key.  The most recent poll on Friday indicates 48% in favor and 52% against.

Supporters say that it will unify Europe, break down internal barriers, and give the EU more strategic power in the world against American interests and other growing international alliances.  Germany strongly supported the bill to prevent future European wars, and because Germany has the largest population in the EU which would give it certain political advantages.

Opponents in France are concerned about the possible effect on their country's already double-digit rate of unemployment, as lower-paid foreign workers enter the country and increase competition.  They also worry about a decline of national sovereignty and lack of democratic control over European institutions.

Former French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who led the committee that drafted the constitution, pleaded for its acceptance.  On Friday he made a speech in the German Bundesrat, saying, "The day after tomorrow, I hope with all my heart, the French will in their turn ratify the constitution in a referendum.  Ratification by Germany and France would mark an historic step forward for the future of the constitution and for Europe."  

Rejection would be a major setback for the French leadership under President Jacques Chirac, who is pushing acceptance of the constitution.

Nine nations have already ratified the constitution, including Germany.  No countries have rejected the constitution so far.