VERY ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTED VERY ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTED Forecasters expect a "very active" Atlantic hurricane season in 2008. Wednesday, the forecasting team from Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project, led by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, released its updated 2008 predictions — and the numbers are rising. The latest forecast calls for: • 15 named storms. • Eight hurricanes, of which four will be major hurricanes, clocking in at Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity. ORIGINAL SOURCE: Colorado State's 2008 hurricane forecast (PDF) "To put it in perspective, a typical season has 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes," said Phil Klotzbach. "So we're calling for about 160% of an average hurricane season this year." The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30. The most active weeks are typically in late August and early September. Back in early December, the CSU team predicted a "somewhat above-average" Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Wednesday morning, the researchers upped those numbers during the Bahamas Weather Conference. Why? Their revised methodology emphasizes the sea-surface temperature gradient between the North and South Atlantic Oceans. The forecasters believe above-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern subtropical Atlantic during February and March will seed heightened hurricane activity. "Warmer water provides more fuel for developing storms. And also, when the gradient is stronger, that implies that you're going to likely have weaker winds going across the Atlantic, keeping the waters warmer," Klotzbach said. Klotzbach devised a new computer statistical model after his team overestimated the last two hurricane seasons — he said he lost sleep over the matter. In both 2006 and 2007, the researchers believed 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes would form. Instead, the actual 2006 tallies were nine named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The 2007 counts: 14, six and two, respectively. The researchers will release an updated forecast June 3, the third day of the hurricane season. Gray said the Atlantic basin is in the midst of a natural active hurricane cycle that will likely last another 15 to 20 years. "So we don't attribute this to anything humans are doing. These are natural circulations," Gray said. There is an above average chance — 69 percent — that a hurricane would strike the USA at any point along its coastline, the researchers said, which is above the average probability of 52 percent. The U.S. east coast, including the Florida peninsula, has a 45 percent chance of being hit by a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5, packing sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour) compared with the average of 31 percent. The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, stands a 44 percent chance of being hit, the report said. The average for that region is 30 percent. Rick Neale reports for Florida Today in Melbourne. Enlarge By Peter Cosgrove, AP Hurricane forecaster William Gray speaks at last week's National Hurricane Conference in Orlando Gray has been predicting Atlantic hurricanes for over two decades. Hurricane Helene spins in the open Atlantic in Sept. 2006. Experts predict that eight hurricanes will form in the Atlantic in 2008.
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+'''Voraussage für die Saison 2008'''



'''Quelle'''

'''Datum'''

'''Stürme'''

'''Anzahl derHurrikane'''

'''Kat. 3+'''



NOAA

''Durchschnitt (1950–2005)''

11,0

6,2

2,7



CSU

''Durchschnitt (1950–2000)''

9,6

5,9

2,3



CSU

9. April 2008

15

8

4





 Das von William Gray und Phil Klotzbach geführte Expertenteam an der Colorado State University hat für 2008 im Atlantischen Ozean eine überdurchschnittlich aktive Hurrikansaison vorausgesagt. Das Team erwartet 15 Stürme, die mit Namen benannt werden, davon acht Hurrikane. Vier dieser Wirbelstürme werden nach diesen Prognosen schwere Hurrikane. Das Team korrigierte damit seine Voraussagen vom Dezember 2007 leicht nach oben. In einer durchschnittlichen Hurrikansaison werden im atlantischen Becken zehn Stürme benannt. Sechs davon erreichen Hurrikanstärke, und zwei werden zu schweren Hurrikanen.

Eine sich abschwächende La Niña und ein schwächeres Azorenhoch als üblich um diese Jahreszeit begünstigten die Hurrikanbildung im späteren Saisonverlauf. Auch das Wasser im östlichen Atlantik sei derzeit wärmer als üblich. Klotzbach und Gray führen dies nicht auf die globale Erwärmung zurück. Vielmehr befinde sich der Atlantik inmitten eines noch 15 bis 20 Jahre andauernden Zyklus.

Von den Experten der Colorado State University werden seit 25 Jahren Langzeitprognosen erstellt. 2006 lag die Prognose zu hoch, und in der Saison 2005 traten mit 28 Stürmen fast doppelt so viele auf, wie Klotzbach und Gray erwartet hatten.