NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
“As Americans focus their attention on a safe and healthy reopening of our country, it remains critically important that we also remember to make the necessary preparations for the upcoming hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Just as in years past, NOAA experts will stay ahead of developing hurricanes and tropical storms and provide the forecasts and warnings we depend on to stay safe.”
The combination of several climate factors is driving the strong likelihood for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Similar conditions have been producing more active seasons since the current high-activity era began in 1995.
“NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “Our skilled forecasters, coupled with upgrades to our computer models and observing technologies, will provide accurate and timely forecasts to protect life and property.”
This year, as during any hurricane season, the men and women of NOAA remain ready to provide the life-saving forecasts and warnings that the public rely on. And as storms show signs of developing, NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be prepared to collect valuable data for our forecasters and computer models.
In addition to this high level of science and service, NOAA is also launching new upgrades to products and tools that will further improve critical services during the hurricane season.
NOAA will upgrade the hurricane-specific Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models this summer. HWRF will incorporate new data from satellites and radar from NOAA’s coastal Doppler data network to help produce better forecasts of hurricane track and intensity during the critical watch and warning time frame. HMON will undergo enhancements to include higher resolution, improved physics, and coupling with ocean models.
As the hurricane season gets underway, NOAA will begin feeding data from the COSMIC-2 satellites into weather models to help track hurricane intensity and boost forecast accuracy. COSMIC-2 provides data about air temperature, pressure and humidity in the tropical regions of Earth — precisely where hurricane and tropical storm systems form.
Also during the 2020 hurricane season, NOAA and the U.S. Navy will deploy a fleet of autonomous diving hurricane gliders to observe conditions in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea in areas where hurricanes have historically traveled and intensified.
As with every hurricane season, the need to be prepared is critically important this year.
“Social distancing and other CDC guidance to keep you safe from COVID-19 may impact the disaster preparedness plan you had in place, including what is in your go-kit, evacuation routes, shelters and more. With tornado season at its peak, hurricane season around the corner, and flooding, earthquakes and wildfires a risk year-round, it is time to revise and adjust your emergency plan now,” said Carlos Castillo, acting deputy administrator for resilience at FEMA. “Natural disasters won’t wait, so I encourage you to keep COVID-19 in mind when revising or making your plan for you and your loved ones, and don’t forget your pets. An easy way to start is to download the FEMA app today.”
In addition to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2020 Atlantic seasonal outlook in August prior to the historical peak of the season.
Hurricane preparedness is critically important for the 2020 hurricane season, just as it is every year. Keep in mind, you may need to adjust any preparedness actions based on the latest health and safety guidelines from the CDC and your local officials. Visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on any watches and warnings.
Imagem do furacão Katrina, um dos que mais causou estragos nos EU

“Acima do normal”: é assim que o  ''(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)'' estima como será a Temporada de Furacões no Atlântico de 2020. A previsão foi feita pelo Centro de Previsão Climática do órgão, que considera que as chances para que temporada seja intensa é de 60%, contra apenas 10% de que seja “abaixo do normal”. 

A temporada, que começa oficialmente no dia 1º de junho, deve ter de 13 a 19 tempestades que receberão nomes (aquelas com ventos de 60km/h ou mais), das quais 6 a 10 podem se tornar furacões (com ventos acima de 120km/h). Destes furacões, de 3 a 6 podem se tornar furacões mais intensos, de categoria 3, 4 ou 5 (que apresentam ventos acima de 175 km/h).

Segundo o NOAA, a análise da temporada tem um grau de confiança de 70%. 

'''O que é uma temporada média?'''

Uma temporada de furacões, na média, produz 12 tempestades, das quais 6 se tornam furacões, 3 deles das categorias 3, 4 ou 5, de acordo com o NOAA.  

'''Qual a diferença entre furacões, tufões e ciclones?'''

"Eles são tudo a mesma coisa: ", esclarece a BBC, que explica que eles são conhecidos por nomes diferentes dependendo da região onde acontecem. As tempestades tropicais que ocorrerem no Oceano Atlântico Norte e no Pacífico Nordeste são chamadas furacões; no Oceano Pacífico Noroeste elas são conhecidas como tufões e no Pacífico Sul e Oceano Índico, como ciclones.

'''Como os furacões são nomeados?'''

A primeira lista de nomes para os furacões do Atlântico foi criada em 1953 pelo Centro Nacional de Furacões dos Estados Unidos (''NHC'' em inglês), sendo depois adotada em outras partes do planeta para nomear também ciclones e tufões.  Antes de 1953, o exército americano foi o primeiro a nomear as tempestades com nomes de pessoas, durante a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Na época, nomes femininos eram mais comuns, pois eram homenagens a mães, esposas e namoradas. 

Atualmente, a relação de nomes é atualizada a cada seis anos pela Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM), agência da  baseada na Suíça, e a lista anual é uma intercalação de nomes femininos e masculinos, em ordem alfabética. A lista para a  tem, por exemplo, Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly e Edouard, só para citar os cinco primeiros nomes. A  foi a primeira a ocorrer e atingiu a Carolina do Norte e a Virgínia dias atrás, sem, no entanto, ter se transformado num furacão.
 
As tempestades podem ter seus nomes reciclados, ou seja, os nomes podem ser usados mais de uma vez. É o caso , por exemplo, do , que atingiu as Filipinas há duas semanas. Já tempestades extremamente destrutivas podem ter seus nomes usados apenas uma vez, como é o caso do . A decisão de tirar um nome definitivamente da lista é dos comitês regionais da OMM, que se reúnem anualmente para avaliar a temporada anterior.