Public Health England ( PHE ) analysis indicates that the COVID-19 vaccination programme prevented 6,100 deaths in those aged 70 and older in England up to the end of February.
From 8 December 2020 to the end of January 2021, over 4 million vaccine doses were given to adults aged 70 and over. The analysis compared the observed number of deaths with the number of deaths that would have been expected, if the vaccine hadn’t been given during this time period. To allow for the time taken to develop an immune response to vaccination, the analysis assumed it would take 31 days before the effect of vaccination on deaths is observed. Using this method, PHE estimates that around 6,100 deaths were prevented to the end of February – 5,900 in those aged 80 and over and 200 in those aged 70 to 79.
Expected deaths with COVID-19 were estimated using real-world data on how effective the vaccines are at preventing death and vaccine uptake.
The results are very similar to those estimated by Warwick University (also published in today’s report), which used a different approach to model the number of deaths with and without the vaccination programme. Warwick University’s estimate suggested that the programme has prevented around 6,600 deaths across all age groups.
Matt Hancock, Health and Social Care Secretary, said:
Vaccines save lives. This work shows vaccines have already saved over 6,000 lives among the most vulnerable in our society. These results give us hope and remind us about the importance of getting the jab as soon as we are eligible. Millions of people will soon be getting their second doses – giving them the strongest possible protection against COVID-19. I urge everyone to come forward for the vaccine when it’s your turn, to protect yourself and your loved ones.
Dr Mary Ramsay, PHE Head of Immunisation, said:
We have shown previously that the COVID-19 vaccinations are hugely effective at stopping people from getting the infection. This new analysis calculates how many lives they have saved in the first few months of the vaccine programme, and with every additional day more lives have and will be saved. The vaccines have an excellent safety record and I would encourage anyone who is offered a vaccine to take it as soon as possible. While the vaccines have a striking impact on mortality, we don’t yet know how much these vaccines will reduce the risk of you passing COVID-19 onto others. Even if you have been vaccinated, it is really important that you continue to act like you have the virus, practise good hand hygiene and stay at home.
If future evidence shows that vaccines do help to reduce transmission, then it is likely that an even higher number of deaths will have been prevented.
The true value of these vaccines may also be in terms of future deaths avoided, should there be resurgence of COVID-19 in the UK in the future. Older age presents the single greatest risk of death from COVID-19 – prioritisation of the COVID-19 vaccination programme has focused primarily on an aged-based strategy in order to prevent the greatest loss of life possible.
No dia 25 de março passado, o Ministério da Saúde do Reino Unido divulgou um comunicado sobre uma análise realizada pela ''Public Health England'' (PHE) que sugere que o programa de vacinação contra  evitou 6.100 mortes em pessoas com 70 anos ou mais na Inglaterra até o final de fevereiro de 2021.

De 8 de dezembro de 2020 até o final de janeiro de 2021, mais de 4 milhões de doses de vacina haviam sido aplicadas em adultos com 70 anos ou mais. A análise comparou o número de mortes observadas com o número de mortes que seria esperado, se a vacina não tivesse sido aplicada durante este período de tempo. 

Para dar o tempo necessário para o desenvolvimento uma resposta do sistema imunológico à imunização, a análise presumiu que levaria 31 dias antes que o efeito da vacinação nas mortes fosse observado. Usando este método, o PHE estimou que cerca de 6.100 mortes foram evitadas até o final de fevereiro - 5.900 nas pessoas com 80 anos ou mais e 200 nas pessoas com 70 a 79 anos.

Os resultados são muito semelhantes aos estimados pela ''Warwick University'' (também publicados no dia 25 de março), que usou uma abordagem diferente para estimar o número de mortes com e sem o programa de vacinação. A estimativa da ''Warwick University'' sugere que o programa evitou cerca de 6.600 mortes em todas as faixas etárias.

'''Novas vacinas a caminho'''

A vacina da  também foi aprovada pelo MHRA, a agência reguladora local, e começará a ser utilizada ainda nesta primavera. A MHRA também está avaliando as vacinas da  e da .

Dados de um estudo da Public Health England (PHE) mostram que as vacinas -BioNTech e Oxford- são altamente eficazes na redução de casos de covid-19 em idosos a partir dos 70 anos de idade.