NOAA forecasts 10 hurricanes in Atlantic
Federal forecasters yesterday predicted that up to 10 hurricanes will form during the six-month Atlantic season that begins June 1, but they do not expect a repeat of the record-breaking onslaught of last year.
Conrad C. Lautenbacher, chief of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said, "It is statistically within reason that two to four hurricanes ... could hit the Gulf Coast. It's a troubling yet real possibility."
NOAA predicted a total of 16 named storms, as many as 10 of which could reach hurricane strength, and that four to six of those would be major.
Last year, 28 tropical storms strengthened into 15 hurricanes, six more than NOAA forecast. Seven of those were considered major hurricanes, two more than NOAA predicted.
A hurricane is considered major when it reaches Category 3 strength on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, or when winds are recorded at least 111 mph.
"It's not just all about the numbers," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, where the NOAA released its predictions. "It just takes that one hurricane over your house to make for a bad year.
"But the research is telling us we are in an active period that may last 20 years, and that's not good news. So the message is clear: We need to be prepared."
Nine of the past 11 hurricane seasons have shown above-normal activity, but researchers say it is part of a pattern recorded since the 1850s. Scientists are debating whether global warming has increased the intensity, but not necessarily the number, of storms.
In New Orleans, Army Corps of Engineers officials and contractors are working around the clock to repair 170 miles of the 350-mile levee system that was devastated by Hurricane Katrina last year.
Corps spokesman Jim Taylor said yesterday that the work to restore the levee system to its condition before Katrina is about 90 percent complete and should be finished by mid-June.
He said new floodgates are being installed and that the system "will be more stronger and more resilient than the levee was before it failed."
Portable pumps will be used to remove water from canals in case of a storm surge before the levee work is completed, Mr. Taylor said.
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Forecasters with the U.S.  in  predict that up to ten hurricanes will form in the North  this hurricane season, and that up to six of them will be considered "major."  The hurricane center also predicts that from 13 to 16 "named" storms this season (i.e. of  strength or greater, with winds in excess of 39 mph or 62 km/h.)

A major hurricane, as defined by the National Hurricane Center, is one that rates Category 3 or above on the , with sustained winds of 111 mph (179 km/h) or more.

Conrad Lautenbacher, administrator of the , says that warmer ocean temperatures and low  make conditions favorable for hurricane development.  Although it is too soon to predict how many storms will make landfall, Lautenbacher says that it is possible that two to four hurricanes could affect the United States.

According to NOAA, the Atlantic basin has been in an active period since 1995, with nine of the past eleven seasons with above average storm activity.  Max Mayfield, directory of the National Hurricane Center, said, "the research is telling us we are in an active period that may last 20 years, and that's not good news. So the message is clear: We need to be prepared." 

"It takes just one hurricane over your house to make for a bad year," said Mayfield.

Last year, 28 named storms developed into 15 hurricanes, of which seven were major.  The hurricane center had predicted five major hurricanes out of nine total hurricanes that year.  Five hurricanes (, , , , and ) were so destructive that the World Meteorological Organization retired their names.

The North Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.