Harper Tories on the brink of majority, poll finds
OTTAWA  The Harper Conservatives will enter a federal election campaign with a polling lead that puts them within striking distance of winning a majority government, according to a new survey taken on the eve of an expected vote.
The new poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News finds Canadian voters satisfied with the direction of the country and significantly more confident in the leadership abilities of the Tories and Prime Minister Stephen Harper than they are in those of his main rival, Stéphane Dion and the Liberals.
According to the poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel, 37 per cent of Canadians would opt to vote for the Tories were an election to be held today, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 9 per cent for the Green Party.
In the 2006 election, the Tories polled 36 per cent, compared with the Liberals' 30, the NDP's 18 and the Greens' 5.
“With these numbers, a majority is within the reach of the Conservatives, but not yet in their grasp,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel. “I think that's the really important difference.”
The Tory gains are significant when compared with June, when scandals such as the Bernier affair left the two major parties statistically even in terms of voter support.
The Conservatives have built their lead on increased backing in British Columbia and parts of Ontario.
In areas of Ontario outside Toronto, they have turned the tables on the Liberals from the last election and now lead in popular support, 41 to 35.
The survey also finds that 45 per cent of Canadians believe it's time for a new government, down from 63 per cent in January, 2006, when voters threw the Paul Martin Liberals out of office.
“The number of people who believe the country is on the wrong track has declined,” Mr. Donolo said.
Canadians told pollsters the biggest issue facing the country is the economy, with 18 per cent saying it is the most pressing current concern. That's followed by health care at 15 per cent and then the environment at 14 per cent.
The survey shows that, of the major parties, the Conservatives are picked by 38 per cent of voters as the best able to manage the economy should there be a slowdown. The Liberals are picked by 27 per cent, the NDP by 8 per cent and the Greens by 3 per cent.
Mr. Harper's campaigners have already signalled they will run the campaign on their economic credentials, lashing out at the Liberal plan for a carbon tax, saying the plan would harm the economy.
In head-to-head comparisons, Mr. Harper is found by Canadians to lead Mr. Dion in a number of areas, including who is better to deal with the United States and the economy, and who offers the most positive vision of the country. Mr. Harper is also seen by 53 per cent of Canadians as the most decisive leader, compared with 17 per cent for Mr. Dion.
“The Conservatives would like this election to be about Harper versus Dion and leadership,” Mr. Donolo said.
Mr. Dion, on the other hand, must try to draw the votes of other left-of-centre voters, most of whom would opt for the Liberals as a second choice.
The Liberal Leader, said Mr. Donolo, will have to try to coax those voters away by arguing that the Liberals are the only way to prevent a Tory majority government.
If there is a silver lining for Mr. Dion, it is in Quebec, where both his and his party's appeal have ticked upward.
Of those Quebeckers surveyed, 26 per cent would opt for the Liberals, up five points from the last vote. The Tories, for their part, are down two points to 23 per cent, while the NDP has jumped four points to 12. The Bloc Québécois has lost eight points to 34.
Pollster Greg Lyle said Mr. Dion can maximize his chances by focusing on a Liberal advantage on the issue of compassion.
“That may already be paying off in the province of Quebec,” said Mr. Lyle, of Innovative Research Group Inc.
Mr. Lyle said the more robust Ontario numbers for the Tories probably stem from a fairly quiet summer that was free of controversy.
“There were lots of stories, but no coffee-talk stories,” he said.
On the matter of the Bloc Québécois drop, Mr. Lyle said Gilles Duceppe's flirtation with the Parti Québécois may have harmed the party and there have been few issues involving national unity that the BQ can capitalize on.
Mr. Lyle added, however, that the BQ may be able to make up lost ground by arguing that it is the only party that stands strictly for Quebec's interests.
The survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted Aug. 25 to 31 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has set October 14 as the date for the 40th Canadian federal election. The Prime Minister met with Governor General Michaëlle Jean at her official residence of Rideau Hall today to request that the 39th Parliament of Canada be dissolved. The Queen's representative agreed to drop the writ and hold the election on Harper's recommended date.

Throughout the duration of Harper's minority parliament, there have been several times where an election call had been predicted, but it managed to survive longer than any true minority government in Canadian history, despite having the smallest relative caucus. Nevertheless, today's announcement has been a near-certainty for the past week, and each party has already begun campaigning and putting up signs. The Conservatives began airing TV advertisements before the official election call was made.

After meeting individually with the leaders of the three other parties represented in the House of Commons, Harper said that he does not have confidence in the ability of the Parliament to continue to work. After each of his meetings at 24 Sussex Drive, opposition leaders emerged saying that Harper was intent on calling an election and had already decided that there could be no common ground with opposition parties. Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe said after his August 29 meeting with the Prime Minister that "instead of making efforts to try finding solutions in the best interest of the population, he wants an election in the best interest of his party". Over the course of this past Parliament, the governing Conservatives rarely found compromises with the other parties, and his small caucus has survived largely because the Liberal Party chose to abstain from crucial bills rather than vote against them.

The move is somewhat unusual. While minority governments rarely last long in Canada a request for the dissolution of Parliament is normally not made until the government is defeated on a motion of confidence by the opposition parties. The move is also unusual because it appears to violate a law passed by Harper himself; Bill C-16 of the first session set fixed election dates for federal elections, reading "each general election must be held on the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following polling day for the last general election". Under the law, the next election was not to be held until October 19, 2009; however, the government has stated that the bill was never intended to be used in minority parliaments. Harper argues, however, that the parliament could no longer function and opposition parties intended to defeat the government. With that rationale, Governor General Jean had little choice but to follow her prime minister's advice.

A recent poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest News Service reported that half of all the 1,003 Canadians surveyed said Harper would make the best Prime Minister, with New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton at 31%, and Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion at 20%. NDP leader Jack Layton is at 38% support for being "sincerely committed to dealing with global warming," with Dion at 30%, and Harper last at 27%. "If this election is going to be a referendum on leadership, Stephen Harper has a heck of an advantage," says Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker. He also says Dion has to "to rough up Stephen Harper a bit" if he wants to win the election.

Harper is also at 50% for being the best to lead in tough economic times, 47% for having "what is takes" to lead the country, and 43% for "a vision of Canada that you can support."

The Conservatives currently hold 127 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, up from 124 at the last election, while the Liberals hold 95 seats, down from 103.  Recent polls show the Conservatives polling at 37% support among voters, just below the 40% usually required to form a majority government.