Busy Atlantic season could bring up to 10 hurricanes
(CNN) -- The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be an active one, with up to 10 of the big storms, the National Hurricane Center announced Monday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that four to six of those hurricanes could reach Category 3 strength or higher -- with maximum sustained winds topping 111 mph.
NOAA predicts 13 to 16 named storms this season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Eight to 10 of those storms are expected to reach hurricane strength. (Watch how close that came to an earlier prediction -- 3:12)
A storm gets a name when it reaches tropical storm strength, with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph. It becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph.
NOAA administrator, retired Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, said that warmer sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and other wind conditions are favorable to hurricane development.
Wind shear, which is a change in air movement at different heights, can block the formation of hurricanes or make them weaker.
Lautenbacher said that it was too early to predict how many storms would make landfall, but said that "it is statistically within reason to assume that two to four hurricanes could affect the United States." (Watch how you can prep for hurricane season -- 7:35 )
The Atlantic Basin has been in an active hurricane cycle that began in 1995, and nine of the 11 hurricane seasons since then have been above normal, according to NOAA.
There were so many storms in 2005 that the National Weather Service had to use Greek letters when it used up its list of 21 names.
This season is not expected to be as busy as last year, the busiest and deadliest on record with 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes. But forecasters and emergency officials urged people to make preparations now. (Full story)
"It's not all about the numbers, it just takes one hurricane over your house to make for a bad year," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.
Four Category 3 storms -- Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma -- hit the U.S. in 2005.
Hurricane Katrina's strong winds and heavy waves devastated the Gulf Coast in late August.
The storm and resulting flooding caused more than 1,300 deaths and an estimated $100 billion in damage, making it the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history, according to the National Climatic Data Center. (Full story)
The World Meteorological Organization retired five storm names from the 2005 season: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma.
Stan dumped torrential rains on Central America and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, killing as many as 2,000 people.
Names are retired out of sensitivity to the victims, and for historical, scientific and legal purposes.
Forecasters with the U.S.  in  predict that up to ten hurricanes will form in the North  this hurricane season, and that up to six of them will be considered "major."  The hurricane center also predicts that from 13 to 16 "named" storms this season (i.e. of  strength or greater, with winds in excess of 39 mph or 62 km/h.)

A major hurricane, as defined by the National Hurricane Center, is one that rates Category 3 or above on the , with sustained winds of 111 mph (179 km/h) or more.

Conrad Lautenbacher, administrator of the , says that warmer ocean temperatures and low  make conditions favorable for hurricane development.  Although it is too soon to predict how many storms will make landfall, Lautenbacher says that it is possible that two to four hurricanes could affect the United States.

According to NOAA, the Atlantic basin has been in an active period since 1995, with nine of the past eleven seasons with above average storm activity.  Max Mayfield, directory of the National Hurricane Center, said, "the research is telling us we are in an active period that may last 20 years, and that's not good news. So the message is clear: We need to be prepared." 

"It takes just one hurricane over your house to make for a bad year," said Mayfield.

Last year, 28 named storms developed into 15 hurricanes, of which seven were major.  The hurricane center had predicted five major hurricanes out of nine total hurricanes that year.  Five hurricanes (, , , , and ) were so destructive that the World Meteorological Organization retired their names.

The North Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.