Hurricane IGNACIO Home Public Advisory Forecast/Advisory Discussion Graphics Archive 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252033 TCDEP4 HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2003 IGNACIO IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE LAND MASS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. USING A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SUPPORTS ABOUT 65 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING AFFECTED BY LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN INDICATED HERE. THE MOTION HAS BEEN MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT STILL VERY SLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO TO PRODUCE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD MORE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE STEERING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION MEANS THAT LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE STILL A SERIOUS THREAT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 24.3N 110.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 110.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 24.9N 111.2W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.3N 111.7W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 28/1800Z 27.0N 113.0W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 29/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 30/1800Z 29.0N 115.0W 30 KT
NOAA five-day forecast map
The United States  (NHC) has upgraded Tropical Depression Four-E to tropical storm status. The storm, now officially Tropical Storm Carlos, is the third named storm of the 2009 hurricane season. 

The storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour, with slightly higher gusts. Carlos is located about 910 miles south-southwest of Baja California, Mexico, and is currently tracking west at 14 miles per hour. Minimum barometric pressure is 1005 millibars.

A fairly small and well-organized storm, Carlos is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it continues westward, the NHC reports.