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WIP: Craft Revamp

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Community Manager * Member Since 2013-07-08
posté January 21, 2014, 14:00:00 | #1
WIP: Craft Revamp

It’s been a long time coming for the craft system to have a "small" dusting done so that it becomes a really interesting piece of WAKFU. It has now been quite a while that the GD team planned to tackle it and the task is not easy, as there is much to do, since the current craft system is a pile of  gameplay layers, one on top of another. That is why, instead of trying to rebalance the current craft system and attempt to just fill the cracks, we preferred to break down the walls and rebuild based on new healthy strong foundations (hopefully you are understanding this metaphor). Forget the craft system as it is now: Our revamp will not only make a few changes, but will offer you a totally different concept!Please first note that all the information that is mentioned in this devblog is only in the state of concept and will not be implemented in the February game update, we are sharing with you our intentions and wishes. Even if the basics of the revamp announced here will remain (at least the basic principles of the system), many things may change in the future or may change during functionality development. As of today, we do not have a date to announce as far as when this feature will be implemented.

With this revamp, we want to bring you a really interesting game mechanic. In short, we wanted to ask you something different than collect thousands of resources and launch a series of 500 same recipe, then "AFK" during the 2 hours and a half that it would take for you to complete them. We want to provide an opportunity for you to: Manage and make choices (therefore possible optimization options) to make the craft system a "game within the game" and, in fact, reward those who invest into the "PvE" aspect of WAKFU.

This is all well and good, you might say, but the real question you're dying to know the answer is: "How do you achieve your goals and still fulfill our expectations?”

Like what has been done with the Guilds and Haven Worlds, we want to focus our design towards a management system based on what we will be calling the "tasks" which obviously include recipes for you to create items but not just that!

Without any further ado, here's a quick overview of the different concepts currently being considered for this feature.

Initial concept

The greatest novelty of this system, which may destabilize you the most is that you will not be a simple craftsman who only makes his own items anymore. You will become an entrepreneur who manages a Handyman’s Workshop, including stock, Kamas, workers, tools, contracts and so on! The principle is simple: Your character will be the prime contractor and the "manager" who will assign tasks and achievements to the workers you will have committed.

Here is an overview of all the concepts that will supplement this system. Again, we remind you that these are changes that we wish to see happening, “our intentions”, but a lot of things can still change.

Craft Tasks

We will discuss first the craft tasks which will be at the heart of the system.

A "task" is an action that you will simply run as the prime contractor.

There are many possible tasks: The conventional craft of an item by the craftsmen, but also the action of recruiting a new worker. To manage your tasks, you will have access to a maximum of 9 tasks slots (common to all professions at the same time). Therefore each task will occupy a slot for the entire duration of realization. This period may last from a few seconds to several days! Yes, some tasks, including making legendary items, may take several days to be completed.

So the whole system will be based on the principle of tasks that will have a well-defined duration according to what they will allow you to make. With 9 slots, you will be able to run 9 tasks at the same time. As soon as one of them is finished, you can retrieve the result, thereby freeing a slot and you will be able to start a new task.

You will start with only 1 task slot, and you will be able to unlock extra slots as you progress in your professions by completing goals in the form of achievements.

The big change for you, is that you can continue to play quite normally while your tasks will complete themselves, just like your Rotceres building your Haven World buildings. Your role will be to manage this small workshop, as well as making sure that you have enough resources and ingredients to start a task as soon as the previous one is finished for a maximum use of your time and overall maximizing your progress.

The Workers

To perform your tasks, you will need manpower!

Since it is not your character who will take on the workload, it is necessary that someone does it for you. The manpower represent skilled workers that you will use to accomplish your tasks. And it is you who will have to recruit them via specific tasks (Example: Start task "Recruiting an Apprentice Jeweler". These recruits are "materials" required to start tasks but who are not "consumed" at the end of a task contrary to the craft ingredients.

Once the task is completed, you will again, have the manpower that you used for the previous task. The "basic" manpower will not provide any bonuses and will just run your tasks. However, more experienced workers (Example: Master Jeweler) may provide bonuses such as, for example, a time decrease of the task.

Some tasks may require more than one worker at a time and/or optional workers may be added to reduce the time of the task.

The Tools

Tools (example: Armorer’s Hammer, Blacksmith’s Anvil, etc...) are the materials that may be required (mandatory) or optional when performing tasks leading to the creation of an item.

Unlike workers, a tool may be consumed under certain conditions when performing a task. Besides the fact that a tool will be needed to start a task, they will also improve the success rate of a recipe.

The contracts

The revamp will provide a system of contracts (similar to the secured craft) allowing you to place an order with a craftsman of your choice.

In fact, you will even be able to make a request to a craftsman with a price quote: It will then be up to him to accept the contract as is, or make a counter offer, and so on. These contracts will be negotiated like a "Ping-Pong" game.

In the contract interface, the ordering player will deposit part or all of the resources needed to manufacture the item he desires, and an amount of Kamas (or not).

It will then be the turn of the craftsman to add (if necessary) what is missing for the recipe to be completed.

Once all the ingredients are together, the craftsman will start the contract, which will occupy a task slot.

The item created will then arrive directly in the inventory of the ordering player, completing and ending the contract.

Crafstman Rating System

We will integrate to these contracts, a rating system that will allow you to provide an assessment of the craftsman.

This assessment will be unique from one player to another. It will appear as a rating ranging from 0 to 5 and based on 3 or 4 criteria. For example: Interaction, Speed, Price and possibly Efficiency.

A ranked craftsmen board will be displayed with the average ratings to help customers have a number to base themselves on.

We will pass on the details, but we are considering several systems to obviously prevent the "muling" the ratings. These will be purely indicative and will not bring any concrete information: In short, they will function just like the ratings of commercial sites on the internet.

Craftsman Search

So that you can find a craftsman to offer a contract to, a system of "available craftsman" will be set up so that the craftsman can register and will only appear when they are connected to the game, therefore able to receive orders/contracts.

This should greatly facilitate the search for an available craftsman (and a good one!) and proposing him a contract.

Ultimately, we want to make it possible to start a contract with all craftsmen (and not just one in particular), but this aspect of the feature will not be put into play immediately.

Best Craftsman Leaderboard

We want to make high level craft a competition between players to determine who the best craftsmen are.

In fact, the leaderboard will be established and published for each type of profession to indicate who are the best craftsmen at the moment, and direct the customer search from the "available craftsmen" system.

High Level Craftsman Contest

We are also considering the implementation of a gameplay specific to high level craftsmen to give them a contest in order to get a specific classification of the high level craftsmen.

The goal is obviously to add a "plus" to the gameplay, rather than just "I level up my profession to the max and that's all I do."

This contest will consist of 2 distinct types of trials based on knowledge of the concerned profession. This contest will define the ranking system, which will also work by seasons and type of craft: The top ranked craftsmen will continually renew based on their individual investment in crafting.

Craft Access From the Web

You read it right.

Since you will be starting tasks for a defined time and managing certain parameters, our system was also built so that you can manage your Craftsman’s Workshop from a web interface almost identical to the in-game one.

So if you just need to login for 5 minutes to retrieve completed tasks and start new ones, we would like for you to be able to do it from a web browser without having to log into the game, or even from your smartphone or tablet!

Craft Marketplace

To facilitate transactions for the craftsmen, we are thinking about implementing a dedicated Craft Marketplace allowing you to store/buy resources for trades.

The idea is that this Marketplace can also be used from the website by offline players so they can make their purchases and start their tasks, even if they cannot connect to the game.

Still have questions? Our FAQ can surely answer you.

Do you have feedback? The forum is here for! Do not hesitate to let us know so that we can share them with the GD team.

Finally, we wish to repeat the following information: The Craft revamp is not scheduled as part of the February update, and we still do not know when it will be implemented. No matter what is decided, the Beta Server will be open early enough so that you can anticipate all the changes this revamp will bring, or share with us your reactions/feedback at that time.

posté January 27, 2014, 19:31:16 | #2
ok so on the FAQ about the monitization your basically going to be doing xp boosts and time reducers.... not a big fan of that myself.

posté January 28, 2014, 02:41:56 | #3
It souns exactly like the neverwinter crafting system

Community Manager * Member Since 2013-07-08
posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #4

When is the Craft revamp?

We do not know yet! But once we have a confirmed date we will keep you informed.

What will happen to the harvesting and planting professions?

Harvesting/Planting professions will not change and will always be the main source of obtaining resources for the craft professions. However, the refinement recipes will be moved to the craft professions themselves. For example, the Farmer will no longer make flour, it will become the role of the Baker. Obviously, to address these changes, the progression of the harvesting professions and resources harvest levels will be reviewed. All this will be communicated more in details in time.

How will we earn XP for these craft professions?

The workshops will disappear, and to earn XP for your professions, you will now have to perform "tasks". Also note that all professions will have 200 levels. Your craft levels remain the same as of now. Which means that for example, an Armorer level 100 will still be level 100. In contrast, the 100 + level items which can currently be crafted at level 100 will finally find their proper place from this balancing. Basically an item level 130 can only be crafted by a craftsman level 130 +, not less.

Will the current recipes be changed?

All current recipes will be changed to match the new system. Since the limitation will now be linked to time and not on the amount of resources needed to create an item, the amount of resources needed for the recipes will also be reduced. We'll review all resources, in addition to the recipes: Crafting as it is now will no longer exist and we will start on a new basis. Some resources may also disappear from the recipes and the game, because they will no longer be useful or they is just too many of them. We will balance all of this the best we can and do not worry, the Beta Server will be opened sufficiently early so that you can anticipate all the changes, or share with us your feedback.

How can we get workers to be able to start tasks? And how to get the tools?

You can get them via the crafting system. There will be tasks of recruitment and training of workers, and other will be for the creation of tools. Ultimately, it is possible that some other features will allow to you to simply obtain them, such as the Haven World buildings allowing you to retrieve tools daily.

Will the tools be consumed after use?

Not necessarily. This will depend on your recipe conditions within a task. Be aware that the tools are easy to get and it will be "normal" to lose some of them and to restock them. In other words, loosing tools will not be detrimental to your tasks. In addition, you will have full control as you will know exactly how and what tools you will likely lose by starting a task.

Can tasks fail? What will happen in case of failure during a contract between players: Will it be canceled, will the resources be lost?

Each recipe has an initial success rate depending on the level and rarity of the item (we are speaking here about the recipe and not the task, we must make the difference). Tools will be there to increase the success rate of a recipe when you start your task. There will be no absolute randomization since you will always have tools at your disposal to control the success rate of your recipes. Therefore you will have to make the right choices to maximize your profitability: Ensure that all your recipes have a 100% success rate by helping you with tools, or prefer to save your tools while knowing that it will lower the success rate of your recipes. In case of failure of a recipe, the ingredients will not be lost, only the tools will, by following specific rules that will allow you to assess the risks. All this and especially recipe failure during a contract, is still being reviewed and will probably evolve one step at a time, therefore we will not get into the details yet. What you need to know for now is that we will ensure that there is no randomization for you to worry about, so that you always know what you will lose or gain by making a recipe.

Will the tasks of making tools require anything other than time? Will we have to commit resources or Kamas for example?

The tasks of making tools will require resources, which will be accessible and probably fast enough to get.

Can we already increase our Professions to level 200? Or will they be limited to the maximum level of the recipes?

The maximum level of professions will be limited to recipes (and items) available in-game. Just like the character level, it seems uninteresting to unlock all levels of professions if there is not yet any content tailored to its evolution. Unlocking the levels of craftsmanship will follow the one of the characters.

Will it still possible to level up a profession to the highest level in a few hours if I have all the ingredients it takes?

It will not be possible to level up a profession to the highest level in a few hours and it is just another advantage of this system in terms of game design. Indeed, the minimum amount of time to get to the maximum level will be decreased: Even if you had the opportunity to purchase all of the ingredients to suddenly go from level 0 to level 100 (very common practice today), it will be much longer to level up a profession because everything will go through tasks which will have a set duration. This give more value to the players who invest in their profession(s) for several months and were feeling "cheated" by the very wealthy players wanting to become a max level craftsman overnight, to get for example : "Grou’s Axe". Now, if you want to get there by the next day, you will have to take your time, go through a skilled craftsman, or the Marketplace.

What will happen to the Master Craftsmen seals?

They will remain in-game and we will improve their use by adding opportunities to recover seals (in small amount of course). For example, a seal could be received once the profession is at level 100 and another at 150. Similarly, long enough and hard quests could be another way to obtain them, etc... We believe to also add other items that will work with the same principle as those seals. All this is still in the thinking stage.

Will part of this new system be monetized?

As for Smithmagic, this aspect is considered. Should this happen, we would not want it to give access to additional things that are not already in-game. Our thoughts are more oriented towards time gain and XP.

What about guilds and nations in all this?

We believe in putting in place a guild and nation gameplay via this new craft system, as well as quests, achievements and everything that makes up the current PvE. The goal for us, is to ensure that crafting is as viable, attractive and interesting as combat is in WAKFU.

posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #5

posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #6
I think I like this.

Ancient Eradicator * Member Since 2008-06-09
posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #7

posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #8
This looks very interesting

Narcissistic Larva * Member Since 2013-10-21
posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #9

posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #10

Ancient Eradicator * Member Since 2008-06-09
posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #11

posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #12
I'm rather excited to see the player-crafter contract system and crafting marketboard. It's exactly what we were asking for, and it's finally coming. Yay.

However, I'd prefer to rush and get some seals before this revamp comes. Seems that it will be just another time consuming hell, and also mea culpa will completely lose its worth. With wisdom cap and "free" wisdom bonuses given by challenges, it's already pointless to use mea culpa for raising a character. I was keeping my potions for crafts only, but well, now it's time to burn them all while it still helps.

Lord Madgobb * Member Since 2008-01-09
posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #13
Haha, sounds like my Hamster And Friends company!
I really like it, huge change, hopefully everything will work as intended and leveling professions will be more interesting. Very original for an mmo as well, whcih is great, that's what brought me to Wakfu, original concepts...

Short Strich * Member Since 2013-11-15
posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #14

I don't like this......

posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #15
This is the same system as in Neverwinter online...
I'm sorry, but I don't like this... Specially craftsman leaderboard seems like not a good idea

posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #16
My only concern is if we're not the ones crafting any longer then what happens to our personal crafting skills?

posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #17
Do you have to be an apprentice to level your professions? If so, what's stopping dual boxers from just hiring themselves... They wouldn't have to pay anyone... If there's a minimum wage then they could just trade the kamas to the main. So... If this is true... Wouldn't that mean you would have to hope you can find someone to work for for free? Spending your time for nothing in return?

posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #18

Lord Madgobb * Member Since 2011-04-28
posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #19
So we will be able to check out available craftsmen online?
How about doing the same thing for group search?

Narcissistic Larva * Member Since 2013-10-21
posté January 29, 2014, 13:56:27 | #20

Thread closed


The Many Benefits of Chapter 7 Bankruptcy

Chapter 7 is just one of the many chapters in the Bankruptcy Code, a law that the U.S. Congress passed in 1978. Otherwise known as Liquidation Bankruptcy, Chapter 7, as explained in detail in the Ryan J. Ruehle Attorney at Law, LLC website “offers the near-total liquidation of all debts that an individual may hold, giving those who pursue this option the ability to start their financial life anew.”

Alternatives to Bankruptcy

Product Liability

  • Taking and investigating consumer complaints regarding faulty products
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Orthopaedic Surgical Procedures

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Hiker Suffers Head Injury at Malibu Creek State Park

Staying Safe on a Hike: Preventing Common Injuries

While hiking isn’t typically seen as a particularly dangerous activity, there are many ways a person can become injured on a hike. Luckily, many of the most common hiking injuries are the result of a lack of preparation. This means they’re easily preventable and shouldn’t pose a significant threat to hikers.

One of the most common injuries hikers endure is foot pain. Walking across rough terrain can cause painful blisters and sores, as well as increasing the odds of slipping, which can lead to ankle sprains. Making sure to have a good pair of hiking boots that offer ankle support can reduce the severity of both of these injuries. Additionally, using a walking stick can help take some of the strain off your feet, improve your balance, and even add a bit of an upper body workout to your hike.

Avoiding sunburns is important as well. Hikers should always wear appropriate sunscreen, including when it is cold out. Similarly, temperature regulation should not be taken lightly. Even on hot days, a sweaty hiker can become hypothermic with a strong enough breeze. Heat strokes and dehydration can also occur on tough, long hikes. Hikers should be sure to stay hydrated. One way to do this is to take a water break every half hour or so. The goal here should be to prevent becoming thirsty.

Hiking is a wonderful way to get exercise while being close to nature. Remember to tell someone where you’re going beforehand and when you’ll be back and pack a first aid kit in case of emergencies. Taking the extra precautions to stay safe during your hike may seem somewhat unnecessary, but in the event that something goes wrong, you’ll be glad you did.

Staying Safe on a Hike: Mountain Lions

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are large cats that live throughout most of the western United States and Florida. They are known by many names, including puma, panther, and cougar.  There are significant populations of these wildcats as far south as Texas and as far north as Washington state.

While mountain lion attacks are rather rare, hikers need to know that when they are out in the wilderness, they may be in a cougar’s territory. These animals are typically independent and have huge individual territories that can span 25 and 500 square kilometers. This means that mountain lions sometimes seem to appear suddenly, since it may take years for them to wander to parts of this area. Therefore, if there were no mountain lions on your last hike, it does not necessarily mean you won’t encounter one on your next one.

There are indications that you may be in a cat’s territory. Avoid animal carcasses, especially those that have signs of being buried. This could be a mountain lion’s prey. The animals return to kills to feed later and defend their food ferociously. Mountain lions, especially males, mark their territory with piles of leaves (which they urinate on) and scratch marks on trees.

If confronted by a puma, there are some things you can do to hopefully scare the cat off. They are naturally afraid of humans and are unlikely to attack, but if a puma is threatening you by growling, crouching, and stalking, you should be careful. There are many reasons to never hike alone and being safe from animal attacks is one of them. Additionally, you may be able to scare it off by making your body physically appear bigger. You can do this by standing tall and spreading your jacket or shirt open. Be loud and intimidating. If you have a child with you, put him or her on your shoulders. This makes you both appear bigger, which can dissuade the lion from attacking.

You should never run from a mountain lion, because this is likely to make the animal chase you. Instead back away slowly. If you are attacked, don’t give up hope. Do everything in your power to remain standing and don’t hesitate to bash its head with a rock or any other possible weapons you may be able to find.

As previously noted, mountain lion attacks are incredibly rare. Knowing what to do to when one of these powerful creatures is behaving as a threat can keep attack this rate low.

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soliloquy-of-nemo  asked:

Swords being carried on the back? Also, swords being carried horizontally at the small of the. Lengths and sizes when its plausible and when it's impractical and stupid.

You can’t draw a full length sword from your back. You’ll occasionally see people screwing around, trying to find a way to make it work, but it’s not something you want to be messing around with in combat.

Pulling a sword from your back, involves juggling the blade a bit while drawing. Again, if you’re devoting your full attention to this, it’s completely safe. If someone is already invested in trying to murder you, you cannot devote your full attention to pulling your weapon, and the entire situation becomes much dicier.

Swords on the back can be useful when you’re traveling, and not expecting combat, since it gets the weapon out of your way, completely.

Knives and pistols are sometimes sheathed/holstered horizontally at the small of the back. It’s a good place to conceal one, since the curve of the spine will hide the weapon’s outline under loose clothing.

You’ll sometimes see people sticking machetes on their back or across their waste. As I’ve said many times before, these aren’t actually weapons, they’re tools, and both are convenient places to get them out of your way while still having access to them.

As a general rule, anything longer than your arm, can’t be pulled from a back sheath or holster. There’s some exceptions to this, like modern pressure sheathes, which will hold a weapon in place while leaving the sides accessible, so you can change the angle while drawing the weapon.

Even failing that, drawing from over the shoulder leaves your body exposed to an incoming strike, in a way that belt sheathes do not. Even if you’re wearing armor, the underarm is one of the lightest locations. In most cases with plate armor, there will actually be a gap. This is because you need to maintain freedom of movement in the shoulder, and you can’t do that if your arm is completely plated over with solid metal. So, raising your arm to draw from your back actually exposes that weak point to your foe.

But, if you’re expecting to be on the road for the next few weeks, and you’ve got a walking staff, then sticking a sword on your back is fairly reasonable. It won’t be bouncing off your leg, annoying you, the entire time. Just don’t expect to be able to get to it if you’re ambushed by bandits.

Mercury has gone retrograde and communication is the first thing to get jumbled up, putting a strain on some of your relationships. Be careful of pressing the issue too hard. I know you’re feeling a lot of things and you just want to solve the issues, but you may be coming off as rude and cold-hearted to the ones you care about. Consider their feelings before you come for them today. Don’t let your drive to solve a problem make you unnecessarily cruel with your words. Words can cut like knives, especially today. Choose your weapons wisely.
Deck: Art Nouveau


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New ANU-CSIRO science precinct

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Leichhardt’s Grasshopper

Biodiversity science in the 21st century is undergoing a revolution.

Innovative capabilities in evolutionary genomics and advances in bioinformatics and spatial modelling are increasing exponentially.

The Centre for Biodiversity Analysis (CBA) is a collaboration between ANU and CSIRO to exploit these new and emerging capabilities in the discovery, understanding and conservation of Australia’s unique biodiversity.

The CBA supports and coordinates:

An engagement and dialogue workshop for research ...

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Criminal Justice Section

Criminal Justice Magazine
Summer 2001
Volume 16, Issue 2

Sex Offender Civil Commitments: Scientists or Psychics?

By Donna Cropp Bechman

In June 1997, the U.S. Supr eme Court gave its imprimatur to state laws that seek to involuntarily commit sex offenders to mental institutions in lieu of releasing them at the conclusion of their prison sentences. In a five to four decision, the Court in Kansas v. Hendricks, 521 U.S. 346, 358 (1997), upheld the state's Sexually Violent Predator Act against constitutional challenges, characterizing the Act as civil in nature and oriented toward providing treatment to those offenders "who suffer from a volitional impairment rendering them dangerous beyond their control." The decision makes arguments under substantive due process, double jeopardy, and ex post facto theories unavailable, despite the fact that many of the state laws would confine offenders indefinitely. As a result, Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Acts-known in some jurisdictions as Sexually Violent Persons Acts-have been implemented in about 25 percent of the states, giving rise to the question: Can we determine with an appropriate degree of certainty what an individual will or will not do in the future?

How likely is "likely"?

With the exception of characterizing the SVP Acts as civil in nature, there is little consistency among the states with respect to defining terms, establishing evidentiary burdens, and providing treatment options. Similarly, although these Acts require a finding of likelihood of reoffense, different jurisdictions define the term as "substantially likely," "more likely than not," and "much more likely than not." Regardless of the definition used, each SVP Act seeks in some form and to some degree a quantification of the probability of recidivism.

Predictions of future behavior, including risk of recidivism (also known as risk assessment), have long been a part of psychological science. And expert testimony regarding an offender's risk to reoffend has historically been admissible in the courtroom. (See, e.g., Barefoot v. Estelle, 463 U.S. 880, 894-906 (1983).) In the past, mental health professionals used clinical assessment (also referred to as unaided clinical judgment), a largely subjective approach upon which risk predictions were derived from personal interviews, data obtained from psychological tests, and historical information applied against the clinician's background of education, training, and experience. A more recent approach to risk assessment, referred to as guided (or structured) clinical assessment, involves a consideration of the clinically derived information viewed in light of the presence or absence of elements known as risk factors that have been identified in scientific studies as contributing to the risk of recidivism.

Both of these approaches result in an assessment of relative risk, which is the risk in relation to the average risk posed by other offenders. Experts testifying to relative risk will ordinarily explain the risk using phrases that range from "very low risk" to "very high risk." Testimony, for example, that, "compared to others who are at risk to reoffend, this person poses a low to moderate risk of recidivism," is an assessment of relative risk.

Neither unaided clinical judgment nor guided clinical judgment was designed to answer the question presented by most SVP Acts: Just how likely is this person to reoffend? As a result, the psychological, psychiatric, and legal communities have begun to explore the possibility of quantifying risk, an exploration that has deeply divided scientists and professionals in this area. Some call it junk science while others claim to have discovered a scientifically reliable method of predicting recidivism. Both sides are referring to the use of risk assessment instruments (RAIs).

RAIs: quantifying the risk

The term "risk assessment instrument" refers to the use of actuarial, or statistically-based, profiles to provide a quantification of risk, or to predict the probability of absolute risk, as opposed to providing a relative risk assessment. In its simplest form, an RAI is the compilation of a series of historical or "static" risk factors that have been numerically weighted according to the degree of significance that factor is believed to have to the likelihood of reoffending. For example, in the scientific literature, follow-up studies of sex offenders who have committed new sex offenses after release from confinement show they have certain factors in common, such as number of prior convictions and sex of the victim, that are considered to be factors contributing to risk. Scientists have studied and reported on a variety of identifiable risk factors that include the relationship of the victim to the offender, marital history, and age of the offender at the time of first offense. These historical factors-said to be static because they happened in the past and generally are not subject to change-are weighted numerically according to perceived impact on recidivism, and, through mathematical formulae, result in a statistical profile that is then proffered as a calculation of likelihood over a given period of time of reoffending. For example, a score of 4 on one RAI corresponds to a 48.6 percent likelihood of reoffending over a 10-year period. This is based on studies upon which this RAI was constructed that show that, of offenders in a past study who possessed risk factors that would have resulted in a score of 4 on this instrument, 48.6 percent of them reoffended within 10 years.

The great debate: Is it science?

Undeniably, sex offenders are viewed by the general public as morally reprehensible and dangerous human beings, and the availability of scientific instruments that can tell us with precision and in advance who among them are going to reoffend is an enticing concept. Although far from perfect, RAIs are characterized by some professionals as a decided improvement over predictions based upon the unaided clinical judgment, and some SVP states even mandate their use in commitment evaluations. RAIs have been described as "the most exciting and potentially most useful new developments" in the sex offender risk assessment arena. (Richard Hamill, Recidivism of Sex Offenders: What You Need to Know, 15 (No. 4) CRIM. JUST. 24 (Winter 2001).) Expert testimony based in whole or in part upon scores obtained on RAIs has been routinely (and often without legal challenge) admitted in SVP commitment proceedings across the country.

But there is another viewpoint expressed in the scientific journals as well as in the courtrooms. It is the viewpoint of scientists, clinicians, and other professionals who are stating rather persuasively what has long been obvious to many who have closely studied this issue: that not even the best science can predict with an acceptable degree of accuracy what an individual will or will not do in the future. Perhaps even more importantly, there is increasing support for the position that, not only are RAIs not the "best science," they are not science at all.

The five fatal flaws of RAIs

The RAIs most commonly relied upon in SVP commitments certainly appear to carry the aura of legitimate scientific theory, and even the names of these instruments seem to imply that someone somewhere has definitively established their usefulness in this area. Reference is often made to the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), one of the earliest RAIs, as well as to the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism (RRASOR), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R), all among the most commonly used instruments in SVP evaluations.

No two RAIs are exactly alike, and the number of risk factors to be evaluated range from four on the RRASOR to 21 on the MnSOST-R. As to the various risk factors that comprise the instruments, there is general agreement in the scientific and professional communities that a consideration of appropriate risk factors is important (and even necessary) in making risk assessments. The suggestion, however, that the quantifications provided by RAIs are accurate enough to allow decisions to be made about individual risk in SVP proceedings is a suggestion that is garnering substantial opposition. Opponents commonly point to five major problem areas with respect to the use of RAIs in SVP commitment evaluations.

  1. The dynamic dilemma. One commonly referred to RAI is known as the Static-99, so called because it was developed in 1999 and as an acknowledgment that RAIs traditionally apply a mathematical weighting of various "static" risk factors-those historical factors that will never change-and exclude "dynamic" factors-those that are subject to change, or have yet to occur. Perhaps the situation that best illustrates how dramatically dynamic factors can affect recidivism is that in which an offender exhibits an unequivocal intention and ability to commit a sex offense at the earliest opportunity. Surely, that individual can be considered with fairly sufficient accuracy to be at relatively high risk to reoffend, yet none of the RAIs include an offender's expressed intentions as a risk factor.

    Similarly, all but one of the most commonly used RAIs completely ignore the relationship of active participation in sex offender treatment to an individual's risk of recidivism, and none of these RAIs give numeric weight to factors that are considered to be "protective" or to reduce risk. For instance, the scientific literature suggests that sex offenders who develop healthy relationships with sexually appropriate partners may be at a reduced risk to reoffend. The same can be said of those offenders who successfully avail themselves of pharmacological treatment options. Being placed in a supervised setting, such as lifetime probation, abstaining from drugs or alcohol, developing a debilitating illness, and having strong support from families and friends are all potential dynamic factors, or protective characteristics, that may significantly lower risk. Because they cannot be determined from a review of the historical data, however, and, in general, may be unknown or even unknowable as of the date of the evaluation, they are not taken into consideration when quantifying risk using an RAI. There is little dispute that a consideration of dynamic factors can be important in accurately assessing risk, and even proponents of RAIs concede that the failure of the instruments to address dynamic factors negatively impacts the comprehensiveness of the instruments.

  2. Peer review studies or fugitive literature? Much discussion and great dissension surrounds the availability of published, peer-reviewed articles describing in detail the construction, or development, of the RAIs. Referred to as "construction studies," such articles provide detailed information about the background, technical data, and procedures from which a scientific theory or technique has been promulgated. Proponents of the use of RAIs in SVP proceedings often rely upon materials submitted at conferences or data elicited during conference presentations, as well as information circulated via the Internet and various websites, as support for the developmental integrity of many of the instruments. The criticism of this type of data, which is referred to as fugitive literature, is that articles derived from such sources have not been submitted for nor subjected to the peer review process and, therefore, lack the authority of data that have been held up to an appropriate level of scientific scrutiny. With very limited exceptions, detailed information establishing the protocol of the construction studies and adequately documenting the technical development of the most commonly used RAIs has not been sufficiently presented for peer review by the relevant scientific community.

  3. An unknown margin of error. No matter who you ask, there is no one, not even the developers of the most widely used RAIs, who claims 100 percent accuracy of the risk quantifications derived from the application of the instruments. Even Dr. R. Karl Hanson, affiliated with the development of the RRASOR and the Static-99, asserts that the instruments are believed to be of only "modest" accuracy. There is, therefore, no dispute as to the existence of the possibility of error each time an RAI is used to predict percentage of risk. The query then becomes: What is the margin of error, or "error rate," for each RAI, and is it an acceptably low one? The short answer to that question is that it probably can never be answered at all.

    Although published studies have attempted to ascertain approximate error rates for these instruments, many scientists contend that true error rates can never be determined with appropriate accuracy, in part due to the concept referred to as "base rates." Simply put, a base rate refers to the frequency with which an event occurs within a particular population, and the accuracy of any predictive or screening test is dependent upon the base rate of the event being screened for or predicted. All of the published studies upon which the RAIs are constructed contain established base rates for the populations studied. But the base rate of recidivism among the population that includes an individual offender being evaluated for an SVP commitment is unknown and unknowable, and, therefore, so is the error rate. In this respect, these instruments are said to be "postdictive" rather than "predictive," in that they look back at a group of offenders and attempt to make estimates of future risk based upon observations made with regard to historical samples. While base rates can be, and have been, determined as to the historical sample, they cannot be absolutely ascertained as to the population that includes the offender being evaluated. In response to this very legitimate concern, attempts have been made to establish the error rates of some RAIs by calculating different estimated base rates, and these estimates may well have their place in assessments that evaluate relative risk. But opponents of the use of RAIs to quantify future risk in SVP commitment proceedings often refer to these attempts as merely educated guesses, and point to the sophistry inherent in attempting to ascertain the accuracy of tests being utilized to make absolute-risk predictions about the future.

  4. Cross-validation studies. The term cross-validation refers to the process whereby the result of one study or test can be replicated on a subsequent, separate population, thereby establishing the integrity of the study or test. Scientific-that is, peer- reviewed-literature does not demonstrate cross-validation of the RAIs. Although proponents of the instruments often cite conference abstracts or other fugitive literature, scientists maintain that the accuracy of a predictive test cannot be established without scientifically scrutinized studies using appropriate cross-validation samples.

    Associated with the concept of "generalizability," cross-validation can confirm accuracy of a given test if, used in different contexts on different populations, it "generalizes" well, or replicates its results closely. But failure to scientifically cross-validate RAIs can be fatal because characteristics of offender populations can vary dramatically, and an RAI constructed on one population may not generalize, or cross over, to a different population. The instrument known as the VRAG, for example, which contains a weighted consideration of 14 designated risk factors, was developed in 1994 to assess violent recidivism in a population, or "cohort," of mentally disordered offenders released from a maximum security psychiatric hospital in northern Ontario in the 1970s. The generalizability of the VRAG to other populations, such as pedophiles in the western United States in the year 2001, has not been empirically established, and, in fact, the limited data available suggests that the VRAG has an unacceptable accuracy rate in terms of assessment of sex offense recidivism. The problem presented by population demographics, or cohort characteristics, is vast and potentially insurmountable: Does an RAI derived from a study comprised of a cohort that included convicted rapists generalize to those offenders diagnosed with pedophilia? Is an instrument that excluded from its construction sample noncoercive incest offenders useful in evaluating risk in offenders with a history of noncoercive incest? Elusive as the answers to these questions may be, many scientists and professionals assert that without appropriate, scientifically scrutinized cross-validation, absolute risk predictions based upon RAI scores are meaningless.

    In a related argument, many scientists and mental health professionals seriously question whether statistics derived from populations can be said to have predictive value with respect to individual future behavior. SVP commitment proceedings do not ask whether this individual possesses risk factors significantly similar to a group of offenders who reoffended at a rate of, for instance, 60 percent over a 10-year period. The stated goal of most SVP Acts is to determine the likelihood that a particular offender will reoffend, an objective that is not reached with statistical profile evidence. To the extent that postdictive group-risk data are being translated into a prediction of an individual's risk of recidivism, many would argue that RAI quantifications are irrelevant and should not be admitted at all in SVP commitment proceedings.

  5. Inter-rater reliability. When the same testing procedure is applied to the same person by different clinicians (or raters), any significant disparity among the results gives rise to concerns over the accuracy of the test instrument itself. This concept, known as "inter-rater reliability" is an important part of the development of any testing procedure, including RAIs, yet little is published in peer review literature that establishes whether or not these instruments have been appropriately evaluated for reliability when used by different raters in the field.

    Although the concept of assigning a weighted score to a risk factor, adding up the numbers, and achieving a quantification provided by mathematical calculation may sound fairly objective in nature, and, therefore, not easily the subject of inconsistencies among raters, nothing could be farther from the truth. Even the very definition of "offense" differs from instrument to instrument. Where one instrument intends by the use of the word "offense" to have the rater take into account offenses charged regardless of conviction, another instrument defines the word "offense" as only that which resulted in conviction. And is a conviction for an attempted sex offense sufficient? What if the conviction is for burglary, but the underlying intent was to commit a rape? If the conviction was later overturned on appeal due to error in the trial court, is it still a conviction? Are all raters in the field answering these questions consistently for each instrument? Are all raters aware that most instruments do not intend to include in their calculations self-reported offenses that never result in a charge or conviction?

    The rules for applying the appropriate definition to a particular risk factor, called "coding rules," are set forth for some instruments in informally circulated materials, as well as in documents that are available over the Internet. But even a set of coding rules, assuming the rater has them and uses them, can be so vague and confusing as to lead to a largely subjective interpretation. For instance, an oft-cited risk factor is the use of force or the threatened use of force. At least one instrument intends that this factor be counted if the victim was vulnerable due to intoxication. But whether or not all raters using that instrument are aware that victim intoxication is included in the definition of force is certainly questionable. And the decision as to whether to conclude that a victim was rendered vulnerable due to intoxication is often a subjective one. Similarly, some instruments inquire into the relationship between the offender and the victim, asking whether the victim was a stranger. But different instruments purport to define the word differently. Is the little girl who lives in the same apartment building as the offender a stranger? What about the child who is a nephew of a friend of the offender? One instrument defines a victim as a stranger if the offender had known the victim for less than 24 hours-an arbitrary definition, and, like many of the risk factors listed on the various RAIs, one subject to differing interpretations among raters.

    Some clinicians and professionals using RAIs have complicated the dangers of the inter-rater reliability problem even more by adjusting the score obtained on the RAIs. Referred to as "adjusted actuarials," this highly criticized hybrid procedure involves using subjective criteria (i.e., clinical judgment) to alter the scores or percentages achieved on an instrument. A valid argument is made that if, as some professionals argue, RAIs are scientifically based procedures derived from documented studies and approved for use by the scientific community, changing the numbers according to some subjective criteria renders the instruments worthless. To date, there are no scientific studies that establish the accuracy of the adjusted actuarial approach, and many scientists regard the concept with great caution and skepticism.

Admissibility of RAIs

The many flaws inherent in the construction and application of the RAIs, and the intense debate over the appropriateness of using scores derived from the instruments at sex offender commitment proceedings, has created substantial controversy in both the psychological and legal communities. It is true that many courts are admitting RAI evidence without challenge, and the majority of the courts that have considered this issue have found that RAIs are accurate enough to meet evidentiary hurdles. Indeed, courts in at least one SVP state have ruled that questions as to accuracy of the instruments are more properly directed to the weight of the evidence rather than its admissibility. Nevertheless, a growing number of courts are evaluating the admissibility of such evidence under a Frye or Daubert analysis, or some combination thereof, and precluding expert opinions based in whole or in part on quantification provided by RAIs.

The legal challenge to the admissibility of RAI evidence focuses on whether these instruments are accurate enough to have achieved acceptance in the relevant scientific community for the purpose of predicting future behavior in SVP commitment proceedings. Acceptance of a scientific technique, procedure, or theory is the threshold question for admissibility of this evidence in states that follow Frye v. United States, 293 F. 1013 (D.C. Cir. 1923), and is one of the factors to be considered in jurisdictions that adhere to the ruling in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 509 U.S. 579 (1993).

Of course, identification of the "relevant" scientific community is crucial in either a Frye or Daubert analysis; we don't ask only polygraphers, for example, if polygraph tests are accepted as sufficiently accurate in the scientific community. Similarly, the "relevant scientific community" for purposes of analyzing RAIs under Frye or Daubert is not only comprised of the clinicians who administer the instruments in SVP evaluations, but is more broadly defined to include the scientists and forensic psychologists who study them.

And, increasingly, these scientists and mental health professionals who study psychological testing and risk assessment are speaking out about their serious concerns over the use of RAIs in SVP commitment proceedings, and the legal community nationwide is listening. In a December 15, 2000, memorandum decision, a Missouri court found that neither the RRASOR nor the MnSOST-R has gained acceptance in the relevant scientific community. In opining that the instruments did not demonstrate sufficient reliability and relevance under a Daubert analysis, the court concluded that "the State is prohibited from offering or submitting testimony from any psychiatric, psychological or other witness regarding the use of actuarial tests, i.e., the RRASOR and MnSOST-R, in predicting sexual offense recidivism." (In the Matter of James Francis (CV-299-108MH), Circuit Court of Butler County, Missouri, Division III.)
In a recent Florida opinion, the court cited the absence of instruction manuals, concerns over translating group data into predictions about individual behavior, the failure to address the concept of base rates, reliance on assumptions that have not been proven, problems with inter-rater reliability and cross-validation, and the lack of peer review data, in ruling that "the test instruments do not possess the scientific reliability under Frye, nor has the general acceptance of the instruments been established in the scientific community." (State v. Klein, No. 05-1999-CF-08148, Cir. Ct. of the 18th Judicial Cir., Brevard County Florida, June 2, 2000.)

Similarly, in July 2000, an Iowa court concluded that "even using the liberal admissibility criteria utilized in Iowa, the assessment procedures . . . does [sic] not meet the test of admissibility as expert testimony in these proceedings," and listed six areas of concern, including the absence of peer review data, inappropriate application of actuarials to individual behavior, and the potential for misleading the jury about the degree of scientific acceptance of the RAIs. (In re the Detention of Harold Johnson, LACV038974, Iowa Dist. Ct., Story County, Iowa.) In March 2001, an Arizona court agreed, stating "the challenged actuarial instruments have not been accepted by the relevant scientific community to predict future recidivism . . . and will not be admitted." (In re the detention of John Woods, OP 2000- 0005, Cochise Cty., Arizona.)

Fundamentally, some courts are beginning to vigorously reject the proposal that science can predict what an individual will or will not do in the future, a position that many scientists, psychologists, and even the American Psychiatric Association are embracing wholeheartedly. Although the concept of identifying the most serious recidivists prior to their reoffending and incapacitating them is appealing, the reality may well be that there is not now, nor may there ever exist, an acceptable means to make such an identification with a sufficient degree of accuracy. Recognizing that human nature is not the likely nor appropriate subject for scientific predictions, a three-judge Florida panel in a consolidated opinion rendered in 14 SVP cases, rejected the admissibility of RAIs using a four-step analysis, which included a consideration of the Frye standard, stating:

We note, in passing, that the underlying assumption of these instruments is that human beings do not change but are programmed to act in the future in accordance with the manner in which they have acted in the past-an assumption which runs contra to the basic principles of our legal and penal system and contra to the premises of clinical psychology and psychiatry. We would further note that the fact that these instruments come clothed in a robe of statistics and presented in terms of mathematical significance makes it likely that any harm done by the improper admission of them would be compounded by the impression such scientific trappings would have on a jury.
(In re: The Commitment of Roberto Valdez, Case No. 99-000045CI, et al., Cir. Ct. of the Sixth Judicial Cir., Pasco and Pinellas Counties, Florida, August 21, 2000.)

Clearly this issue will be reviewed by higher courts, possibly even the U.S. Supreme Court. But the Florida, Missouri, Iowa, and Arizona opinions appear to be based upon solid scientific ground, and those courts that have, upon close scrutiny, identified the flaws inherent in Risk Assessment Instruments, have, even under liberal admissibility standards, declared the instruments to be fatally flawed.

Risk assessment without RAIs

The failure of RAIs to gain acceptance in the scientific community precludes their admissibility at SVP trials, thereby preventing juries from improperly considering this evidence in a scientifically significant light to which it is not entitled. This preclusion, however, affects only the admissibility of absolute-risk assessments, or quantification of future risk. As noted previously, testimony concerning the existence of certain scientifically validated risk factors and the role they play with respect to an individual's relative risk is generally admissible in the courtroom, assuming the appropriate foundation, and scientists continue to study and refine the realm of relative risk predictions. The Manual for Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20), for instance, which is not a risk assessment instrument but has been mistakenly utilized as such, is a set of scientifically-based guidelines designed to assist in relative risk assessments of sex offenders, and includes a consideration of dynamic aspects as well as historical factors.

Ultimately, however, whether or not the question posed by most SVP Acts can be answered sufficiently with relative risk assessments is yet to be determined, but science cannot always answer legal queries to a sufficient degree of accuracy, no matter how important those queries may be to society. The obvious concern over the use of these instruments is in incorrectly identifying an individual who would not have offended as one who would have offended (a false positive). But those who proffer that the RAIs are "accurate enough" to be used in SVP commitment evaluations would do well to keep in mind the famous "false negative" lesson taught by the case of Jeffery Dahmer, the Wisconsin sex offender and serial killer of at least 17 victims. Scoring Dahmer's likelihood of reoffending using the RRASOR, Dahmer rates a 36.9 percent risk to reoffend over a 10-year period, a quantification insufficient for commitment under most SVP Acts.

Donna Cropp Bechman is the chief deputy public defender at the Cochise County Public Defender's Office in Bisbee, Arizona. In addition to her regular felony caseload, she represents respondents in sexually violent persons commitment cases.

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Stephen J. Schueler, M.D.

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The Cradle

[15 April 2009]

By Michael Curtis Nelson

This understated 1974 epic tells the story of the birth of the Polish state through a psychological portrait of the leader responsible.  Mieszko 1, in defiance of his father’s dying wish to keep his lands isolated from the Germans to the west and to make Mieszko’s younger brother his heir, consolidates his rule, conquers neighboring territories, converts to Christianity, and allies with Holy Roman Emperor Otto 1, thus bringing Poland into being.

The bulk of The Cradle’s action takes place in flashbacks, recollected by the ailing Mieszko (Wojciech Pszoniak) as he reassesses his life the night before the crucial 972 battle of Cedynia, which pitted Polish forces against a combined German army of Saxons, Serbs, and others angered by the Poles’ occupation of the strategic Wolin region.

Aleksander Scibor-Rylski’s compact script enables director Jan Rybkowski to cover a lot of history in under two hours. A tense parley across the river economically establishes the conflict between Poles and Germans, as well as the resentment and respect the brothers feel for one another, while the flashback structure distills the past into manageable parts.

A visit from a witch who challenges Mieszko to appease the spirits of the dead lends an air of fate befitting the import of the historic battle to come. Mieszko, plagued by guilt for having disobeyed his father Ziemiomysl (Boleslaw Plotnicki) and cheated his brother Czcibór (Marek Bargielowski), takes the witch’s advice to heart, and worries that he will lose the fight if he can’t make peace with the dead. Caught between folk religion and monotheism, just as he is caught between tribal and national politics, Mieszko ends his evening of self-searching with a dramatic direct address to Ziemiomysl (and the camera), justifying his actions.

Alternately majestic and intimate cinematography by Marek Nowicki emphasizes both the historical and personal theaters of action in The Cradle. Extreme long shots of gathering forces stake out the epic scale of events, while tight interior scenes show the tribal, familial, and psychological machinations behind nation-building.

Rybkowski and Nowicki make the most of the dark, cluttered interiors of the Poles’ medieval dwellings. Characters are usually filmed behind objects: the flames of a brazier, hanging animal skins, weapons and armor. After Mieszko announces the death of his father to the assembled nobles, he and Czcibór circle the room, disappearing and reappearing behind the other men, until Mieszko forces Czcibór to tell the lie that their father has chosen Mieszko as leader. Their movements capture perfectly the gamesmanship at work.

Scenes of falconry, Ziemiomysl’s grand funeral, complete with keening women and funeral pyre, the men’s armor, and Mieszko’s ring fort give the film an air of authenticity, especially since Rybkowski treats all the period details naturalistically. There are no ostentatious, lingering shots of the fort, for example, as there often are of CGI structures in present-day historical drams such as Troy.

Jerzy Maksymiuk’s score, by turns modern and medieval, matches the atmosphere of tension and dread (as well as the rare moments of levity) scene for scene: martial during the moments preceding battle, solemn and yearning when Mieszko meets his wife-to-be.

Unfortunately, The Cradle appears to have been rather crudely digitized, projected and captured rather than scanned. The frame shakes slightly throughout, and ragged edges form the top and bottom of the picture. Either the quality of the print was poor or the transfer process has washed out the image. Tracking shots jerk. Dialog and the score are clear enough, but the subtitles are full of ungrammatical sentences, such as “We may loose if we wait”, which suggests that the film wasn’t resubtitled for this release.

Given the historical subject of the film, and the fact that it was made at the height of the Cold War, it’s disappointing that the DVD provides no context for either The Cradle’s subject or its production (Note: earlier videotape versions translate the title as The Nest). Extras are limited to filmographies for Rybkowski, Pszoniak, and Bargielowski; and lists of a few dozen other Polart features. As for the latter, the titles on the DVD covers, presented 12 to a screen, are barely legible.

Many aspects of The Cradle recommend it as propaganda. The battle of Cedynia clearly had the status of approved history, since not long after the end of World War II, Poland’s Soviet-sponsored government placed a commemorative marker there. The portrait of an eastern strongman defeating and taking land from the Germans would have resonated with the official Eastern Bloc narrative that Warsaw Pact countries were locked in a standoff with a decadent, belligerent West, as would have the nationalism inherent in Mieszko’s declaration to his father that “Here must be only one thought, one faith and one hand”. Perhaps, too, presentation of the Christianization of Poland as a political expediency would have pleased authorities suspicious of the Church’s potential for subversion.

But as is often the case with films about approved subjects in totalitarian countries, The Cradle undercuts the communist worldview in ways perhaps too subtle for censors to notice. Czcibór remains faithful to his brother, and for all Mieszko’s imperial ambition, he appears happiest when with his band of retainers. This, along with Mieszko’s embrace of tribal folk religion, places local and familial allegiance over the nationalism the film ostensibly champions. One could even make a case that The Cradle prefigures the rise of Lech Wałęsa and the Solidarity labor movement, and Poles’ eventual rejection of communism in 1989 elections.

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Uwe Sauer

For this purpose, research in the Sauer lab takes an interdisciplinary approach that combines quantitative experimentation and modelling to solve fundamental questions of complex metabolic network operation, allowing to engineer general cellular functions such as redox and energy metabolism. In particular, his lab has pioneered methods for 13C-flux analysis and is a key player in quantitative metabolomics, such that he became a well-recognized expert on central metabolism of bacteria and yeast.

Uwe Sauer has over 70 publications in peer-reviewed journals over the last 5 years, and is a member of various international editorial boards, scientific steering and advisory committees of international organisations and companies in systems biology and biotechnology.


Sacci urges swift action on matric report

Johannesburg - The SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) welcomed on Monday the ministerial task team's recommendations on the current matric pass mark, and urged the basic education department to implement them promptly.

“The report mirrors the general sentiment regularly voiced by business regardless of sector or size, that there are widespread concerns about the standard and quality of the matric exam,” Sacci said in a statement.

Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga had tasked a team of experts to examine media reports and research which criticised the national senior certificate pass requirements.

Sacci said it appreciated a comment by the task team that a higher pass mark on its own did not ensure improved educational quality, and that the quality of teachers remained a necessary condition.

“While improving the quality of educators is a long-term goal, at least a more stringent pass requirement lays the foundation in the short run for gradual system improvement.”


International research group documents unique songbird diversity of the Eastern Himalayas

The Eastern Himalayas are home to more than 360 different songbird species, most of which are to be found nowhere else on the planet. This makes the region extending from eastern Nepal to the borderlands of China, India, and Myanmar unique and one of the most important hot spots for biological diversity in the western hemisphere. A recent research paper describes how this impressive bird community came about millions of years ago, emphasizing both the uniqueness and biological significance of this remote area. "As the Himalayan mountain range was formed, a profusion of completely different ecological niches were created," explains Professor Jochen Martens of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU). "A wide variety of different songbird species were able to colonize these niches. The majority of these species did not evolve there but emigrated from the eastern and south-eastern regions of the Himalayas." Martens has been conducting research in the Himalayas for 45 years and is the co-author of the article "Niche filling slows the diversification of Himalayan songbirds" published in the eminent scientific journal Nature.

The team of researchers from India, the US, Germany, and Sweden was able to sample and analyze the DNA of all songbirds found in the Himalayas. Team members such as Martens compiled some of the genetic material over the course of decades; some was found in old collections in European and North American museums or was taken from individual feathers collected by field workers. The scientists were surprised at the relatively large differences in the genetic makeup even between species which are apparently closely related and that often have an extremely similar appearance. On average, each bird species separated from their closest relative six to seven million years ago. The time is roughly equivalent to the period separating human beings from chimpanzees, the animal most closely related to humans.

Over the past million years, new bird species have evolved such as those found in Southeast Asia, China, and Siberia. However, almost none of these have emigrated to the Eastern Himalayas. The team of researchers headed by Professor Trevor Price of the University of Chicago and Dhananjai Mohan of the Indian Forest Service believe that emigration has not taken place because of the difficulty of integration into the already tightly packed bird communities of the Eastern Himalayas.

"The capacity for new species to evolve appears to depend to a large extent on whether enough room for colonization is available," explains Martens. The Eastern Himalayas offered unique conditions for the development of an enormous diversity of songbird species. The research team concluded that the habitats have since been saturated so that barely any new niches were available for new species.

The findings from the DNA analyses essentially confirm those made by Martens after his many years spent examining bird songs. The various types of song show how acoustic properties, usually in the form of dialects, contribute to species evolution and how the individual species are distributed in an area with extreme elevation stratification, such as the Himalayas. Over the years, Martens has recorded more than 10,000 individual sounds from numerous species for his research, which he compiled in Europe and many parts of Asia.

Martens and his international research colleagues agree that the Eastern Himalayas on the borderlands of India, China, and Myanmar is an area of unique genetic diversity with regard to birds. They hope that their findings on songbirds will help stimulate research into other groups of animals, such as reptiles and mammals, in this impressive location. "It will only be possible to protect this natural heritage once it has been researched as thoroughly as possible," adds Martens.

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Trevor D. Price et al., Niche filling slows the diversification of Himalayan songbirds, Nature, 30 April 2014,
View image in original size
View image in original size photo: Jochen Martens
The Himalaya golden-spectacled warbler (Seicercus burkii) lives in the Eastern Himalayas. There are several closely related species of the same genus in Central and South China. They can be distinguished by their vocalizations and genetic makeup.

Contact Contact
Professor em. Dr. Jochen Martens
Evolutionary Biology
Institute of Zoology
Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
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Siddhas, Yogis & Rishis of India

The greatest contribution of India to the world is her material and spiritual science. No civilization, however old it be, has ever attained the level of sophistication, reached by the great ancient Siddhas, Yogis and Rishis of India in material and spiritual science.

What they had was not just intelligence but intuition. They could see, hear or feel beyond the realm of the five senses. They did not need telescopes, microscope or other scientific equipments to unravel the mysteries of the cosmos. They only relied on the most powerful instrument in the world the human soul which has it in a latent sense, omniscience and omnipotence.

The earth plane was actually designed as a laboratory for the evolution of souls, so the GOD send us His reprsentatives in the form of Siddhas, Yogis and Rishis to show us the way. This great souls are in every part of the world, but particularly in India and especially in Tamil Nadu, the land of the Mystics.

In India all scientific truths are imbibed in routine life, by explaining them through Puranic Stories. Through tradition or custom, all scientific truths are brought to the stage of implementation in day-to-day life

In this Blog im Decoding the Hindu Sacred Stories, Symbols, Myth, Rituals and Worships for Today`s Modern World Scientifically. Many doubts such as the connection between the Universal Soul, the One God and myriad gods and goddesses, Hindu rituals, practices and their symbolism, the caste system and concepts such as karma, dharma and reincarnation are explained in a simplified and scientific form.

"May Mother Earth and Father Heaven Bless You With Prosperity and Enlightenment"

- Vijayakumar Alagapan

Quotes about India

Some of the following facts were recently published in a German magazine, which deals with WORLD HISTORY FACTS ABOUT INDIA and HINDUISM.

- India invented the Number system 0 to 9.

- The world's first University was established in Takshila in 700BC. More than 10,500 students from all over the world studied more than 60 subjects. The University of Nalanda built in the 4 th century BC was one of the greatest achievements of ancient India in the field of education.

- Ayurveda is the earliest school of medicine known to humans.

- Although western media portray modern images of India as poverty striken and underdeveloped through political corruption, India was once the richest empire on earth.

- The art of navigation was born in the river Sindh 5000 years ago. The very word "Navigation" is derived from the Sanskrit word NAVGATIH.

- The value of pi was first calculated by Budhayana, and he explained the concept of what is now known as the Pythagorean Theorem. British scholars have last year (1999) officially published that Budhayana's works dates to the 6th Century which is long before the European mathematicians.

- Algebra, trigonometry and calculus came from India . Quadratic equations were by Sridharacharya in the 11 th Century; the largest numbers the Greeks and the Romans used were 106 whereas Indians used numbers as big as 1053.

- USA based IEEE has proved what has been a century-old suspicion amongst academics that the pioneer of wireless communication was Professor Jagdeesh Bose and not Marconi.

- Chess was invented in India .

- Sushruta is the father of surgery. 2600 years ago he and health scientists of his time conducted surgeries like cesareans, cataract, fractures and urinary stones. Usage of anaesthesia was well known in ancient India .

- When many cultures in the world were only nomadic forest dwellers over 5000 years ago, Indians established Harappan culture in Sindhu Valley ( Indus Valley Civilisation) .

- The place value system, the decimal system was developed in India in 100 BC.

We owe a lot to the Indians, who taught us how to count, without which no worthwhile scientific discovery could have been made. - Albert Einstein, 1879–1955 (German scientist and humanist)

India is the cradle of the human race, the birthplace of human speech, the mother of history, the grandmother of legend and the great grand mother of tradition. - Mark Twain.

The Indian way of life provides the vision of the natural, real way of life. On the face of India are the tender expressions, which carry the Creator’s hand. - George Bernard Shaw, 1856–1950 (Irish author and literary critic)

If there is one place on the face of earth where all dreams of living men have found a home from the very earliest days when man began the dream of existence, it is India . - French scholar Romain Rolland.

Tantric Astrology

Tantric Astrology

Most Popular Programme

Most Popular Programme - TANTRIC ASTROLOGY

Tantriga Jyotidam (Tantric Astrology) is an esoteric science practice by very few masters in India is a system designed by ancient Indian mystics. It is used to identify :- Soul's mission in this life - Spiritual secrets - Qualities, talents and capabilities of the individual - your hidden potential - your actual education, career & business path - How to appease Planets - How to get your departed ancestors blessings - Method to remove bad karmic energies that limit your potential - What you owe to society in your previous life and ways to pay the dues - How to turn your bad vibration or ill luck into positive vibration to attract health, wealth, prosperity - and many more….

The purpose of Astrology and Temple is to fix problems by focusing attention on rituals, worships and remedies. Unfortunately most people dont have such a fortunate life to learn about rituals, worships and remedies or have the grace and faith to believe in them. Remember rituals, worships and remedies in temples particularly in south Indian temples are nothing more or less then a advance technology to connect with divine beings. Divine help is available and we have ways to help you access the divine intervention in your life.

"Know your astrology, rituals, worships, remedies and you begin to control your destiny"

For appointment call I.K.S. Academy Team :

@ 012-910 7301

Yogam (Yoga), Vaithyam (Natural medicine), Jyothidam (Astrology) and Nyanam (Mystical Knowledge) must be master to know GOD'

Education, which cannot give peace to the soul or cannot give the knowledge of the Self and the inner satisfaction, is not education. Education, which cannot wipe the tears of others, known or unknown, is not education. Education is understanding the situation - leading the life that can make the life, the Life Divine, where the ultimate goal of the life is the God-Realisation.

- Animal to Man ( Mooladhara to Anahata )
- Man to Man ( Anahata to Ajna )
- Man to Divine ( Ajna to Sahasrara )

During 2012, the Sun, Earth and Karthigai star, will be in alignment resulting in more of the grace light entering the Earth plane. Thereafter, it is predicted that the Karthigai - Lord Murugan energy will be responsible for the transformation of the planet and of the genetic evolution of the human species into Gods and Goddesses status. This energy will allow humans to return to their original blueprint. The most important thing to remember about these new energies is to stay conscious and match our frequency to receieve it through proper worships, rituals, yoga and mystical knowledge according to great siddha masters.

The Siddhas were scientists, particularly in their investigations into chemistry, astronomy, plants, human anatomy and physiology. They applied their extraordinary powers, developed through intensive yogis practices, to research these areas on atomic and universal levels without the use of sophisticated equipment. In the long linege of Siddhas, one does not know when they came into earth's existance. Whether they still exist or are they Ascended masters teaching humanity the various sciences and philosophy, will perhaps, be never known.

In the teachings of the Siddhas the human body is a temple of God. Man is a miniature representation of Paramatma or Supreme Intelligence. The purpose of life is to realize God.To manifest that realization in all planes of existence.

Using special salts as well as herbal formulae the Siddhas developed the unique science of rejuvenation, known as "kaya kalpa", which allowed them to prolong their lives until the long term effects of Kriya Kundalini Pranayama and similar yogic practices could complete the process of transformation, bringing about physical immortality.

Siddhas followed the ancient Guru- disciple apprenticeship method. They revealed their secrets to those students whom they felt could be trusted not to misuse the science. The science of Kaya kalpa was limited to those great sages. who were prepared for the uplifting of humanity. Ayurveda came much later as discipline.

The Siddhas had vast knowledge of human anatomy. Their single-minded concentration was unique. It was was achieved with perfection. Their literature on medicine was extensive. The Siddhas were a close-knit community and preferred to preserve their knowledge. They reduced this knowledge to codes and symbols and their literature was steeped in mysticism. Only a Siddha can decode the writings of a Siddha. A beginner could not gain any appreciable knowledge without the Siddha accepting him as a student.

Siddhas such as Thirumoolar, Agastyar, Boganathar, and many more had realized their capacity for experiencing and manifesting the Divine. This was not only limited to the spiritual plane of existence. The Cosmic Spirit would descend into the more lower and gross planes of consciousness, the intellectual, mental, and physical bodies. This for us is a limiting thought as our yogic parasites are not as intense as the Siddha. With progressive surrender of their being , their ego and their very lives the Divine would indeed transform them. With intense practices of various Kriyas, hatha and bhakti yoga, meditation, mantras and Kriya Kundalini Pranayama they merged with the Cosmic Spirit . This was race against time as the natural breakdown of cells, catabolism, had to be reversed to anabolism to prolong the extent of their age. They had to complete the Divine transformation. With Kriya Kundalini yoga and using specific herbal and mineral salts they were able to prolong their youth for the Ultimate transformation.

The Universe was created out of a Cosmic Thought . No civilization be it the Inca, Atlantis or Egyptian had such a precise knowledge as the Siddhas. They were proficient in the science of longevity or deathless state, alchemy, medicine and physics.

This blog is also intended to support my students by giving preview to, expansion on and follow-up to what we work in class. Suggestions and comments about the site are very welcome - mail to

- Donation and Annadhanam at Old Folks Home in Klang on first weekend every month.

- Mind Sound Yoga Class for standard 6 Tamil school students : 3 days in a week for free.

- Monthly free Yoga and Hinduism class in Raja Rajeswary Temple at Hulu Klang, Ampang, Selangor and Ramalingeswarar Temple, Bangsar, K.L. .

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Kala Bhairava

Kala Bhairava - by Vijayakumar Allagappan

The Siddhas, or inner scientists of South India were aware that time is organized differently on various planets. While time moves slowly on planet Earth, it moves faster on planets vibrating at a higher frequency. Kala Bhairava is the deity who is known to manage time on all the planets.

According to the Siddhas, there is what is known as the Kala Bhairava universe. A divine being called Kala Bhairava rules the universe. In astral travel the Siddhas made visits to the Kala Bhairava universe and gave a description of what the God (Kala Bhairava) looked like. He is dark in complexion, fierce looking, and has a dog as his vehicle. Kala Bhairava has a significant place in all the main temples devotes to Shiva. He is one of the most-feared deities, but actually, he is one of the most rewarding ones. Lord Kala Bhairava is that manisfestation of Lor Shiva who manage time (Kala). Time Shakti or Time Energy was created by Kala Bhairava in all of the galaxies. He through Time Shakti created milliseconds, seconds, minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years. If one receives instant enlightenment or prosperity or recovery from debt or illness it is the work of Bhairava.

One who worships Kala Bhairavar on Ashtami Thithi will be freed from all debts and loans.

Tantric and anyone who seeking divine power to tackle problems that seems to have no solutions, surrender to Kala Bhairava. He can solve most of the problems, which are pending for a long time. There is nothing more precious than time. So intelligent humans should use every moment effectively on the spiritual path. Those, who want to do this, can get the divine help of Kaala Bhairava, if they request Him with sincerity. Lord Kala Bhairava is worshipped by Yogis and Tantrics to attain Siddhis. Lord Kala Bhairava is regarded as the guardian of Yogis and Tantrics, who attain accomplishment of mantras by doing Sadhana (devotion). Many astrologers and tantricks keep Kala Bhairava with them, to enhance their occult knowledge.

Maha Kalabhairava Ashtami
Maha Kala Bhairava Ashtami will fall on 8th waning moon in the month of Karthikai (mid Nov - mid Dec), is the most auspicious time to access into Lord Kala Bhairava's blessings. In 2015, Kala Bhairava Ashtami is on December 3rd.

Kalabhairavashtami is the day when Lord Shiva took the form of Kalabhairava. Or in other words, Kalabhairavastami is the birthday of Lord Kalabhairava. On this day, Lord Kalabhairava makes
His presence intense wherever He is worshiped. On this day, Kalabhairava removes all the sufferings of the devotees and grants whatever boons they ask. Offering worship to the Lord of Time – Kalabhairava – tunes our system to be receptive to the healing energy that He is intensely radiating.

Lord Kala Bhairava exists in 64 forms which are grouped into 8 categories each:

1 - Asidanga Bhairava: Gives Creative Ability
2 - Guru Bhairava: Divine Educator
3 - Chanda Bhairava: Gives incredible energy, cuts competition and rivals
4 - Kroda Bhairava: Gives You the Power to Take Massive Action
5 - Unmatta Bhairava: Controls Negative Ego and Harmful Self Talk
6 - Kapala Bhairava: Ends All Unrewarding Work and Action
7 - Bhishana Bhairava: Obliterates Evil Spirits and Negativity
8 - Samhara Bhairava: Complete Dissolution of Old Negative Karmas

The vahana (vehicle) of Lord Kaala Bhairava is the dog. Feeding
and taking care of dogs is another way of showing our devotion to Lord Kaala Bhairava

Some forms of Kala Bhairava embody a wrathful energy which we can use for destroying negativity and for protecting us as well. These tremendous energies emphasize why it is important to honor Kala Bhairava, The Lord of Time. If you encompass his grace, you will find yourself in the right place, at the right time surrounded by the people that will enhance your life to greatness. Bhairava can force you to jump over the bad time choices you make in the form of laziness, lethargy and idleness. You must also obtain the consciousness to discontinue unrewarding action, even in your own job.

Kala Bhairava will not only show you the vision of what it is you want to create, but he will also give you the exact knowledge and clarity of how to get it. So why zig zag through life to get to your goal, when Kala Bhairava can give you that 1 direct path to your goal. It is a common human belief that working hard and long hours will give us the greatest rewards. This is a misconception. The Wisdom of Bhairava can transform the power of your hours into seconds, just by accepting his intentional energy. You can use the following Mantra 108 times during Kala Bhairava Ashtami (waning 8th moon) : 'Hmmm Hram Kala Bhairavaya Namaha'.

Lord Kaala Bhairava's Vahana - vehicle

The vahana (vehicle) of Lord Kaala Bhairava is the dog. Feeding and taking care of dogs is another
way of showing our devotion to Lord Kaala Bhairava. According to Siddha masters, the front part of the dog - face, neck and chest is said to represent daytime. The rear of the dog signifies night time. Day and night represent time. From a mystical perspective, we can figure out that the dog represents both daytime as well as night time. Karma you have done during day and night can get
released when you feed dogs. This is a spiritual truth. There are many other mysteries about dogs.
Sometimes great Masters and even angels incarnate as dogs. You can have a real communion with
dogs on the 8th Moon phase.

Important Kala Bhairava Temples in India

1. Batuk Bhairon - Old Fort (Purana Kila) Temple - Delhi
2. Ashta bhairon - Sri Kamanada Eswar Temple - Aragalur, Tamilnadu
3. Bhairavar - Vairavan Patti Temple - Karaikudi, Tamilnadu
4.Bhairaveswarar  - Chozhapuram Temple - Kumbhakonam, Tamilnadu
5. Kaal Bhairav - Kaal Bhairav Temple - Ujjain, Madhya Pradesh
6. Kaal Bhairav - Kaalabhairaveshvara Temple - Adichunchanagiri, Karnataka
7. Kaal Bhairav - Kaal Bhairav Temple - Adhiyaman Kottai, Dharmpuri District, TN
8. Bhairav - Kaal Bhairav Temple - Kasi (Varanasi)

I salute Lord Kala Bhairava,

Whose lotus feet is being served by Devendra,
Who wears the different directions as his cloth, of life,
Who is black in colour and the primeval cause,
Who is deathless and the first God,
Who is a form of Shiva, who loves his devotees,
Who saves us from the ties of Karma,
Who is eternal and does not have any one second to him,
Who takes away the fear of death from humans,
Whose sight is sufficient to destroy all sins,
Who can grant the eight accult powers,
Who is the chief of the society of Bhootas,
Who is eternally old and Lord of the Universe.

The time is now to take matters into your own hands to use Bhairava to transform your life. Kala Bhairava Is Your Personal Protector to shatter the past, present and future and lead a directly to your chosen dream.

Let the Lord of Time help you to wake up each morning clear, motivated, happy and knowing how to implement your dreams!

*Hmmm Hram Kala Bhairavaya Namaha........

*Om is recited as Hmmm

  1. welldone,
    nice info.
    nobody has reported like this.
    keep it up VA!

  2. Thanks for posting this! It helped me a lot to understand the Lord.

  3. hI
    aRe you doing any prayer for bhairava on 23/6/2011
    let me know about this...thank you ...thana

  4. Hari Om,
    I'm looking for this info so long....and all came together to me, the mantra's, the pictures and the info about HIM (Kala Bhairava) surprising...
    To share, here is the Kala Bhairava Gayathri :-
    Om KaalaGhalaaya Vithmahe
    Kaala-thithayeh Thimahe
    Tanno Kala Bhairavap Prachodayath

  5. The way I peeped and it is marvelous and knowing about prescious Time and worshipping of Lord Kala Bhirava really boon to the viewers.


Richard the Lionheart 'had mummified heart'

February 28, 2013 by Richard Ingham
Richard the Lionheart's tomb at the Fontevraud Abbey in the French town of Saumur, on August 21, 2009. Forensic scientists say they have delved into the embalmed heart of Richard the Lionheart, finding chemical evidence that the remains of England's Crusader king were handled with holy reverence.

Forensic scientists on Thursday announced they had delved into the embalmed heart of Richard the Lionheart, finding chemical evidence that the remains of England's Crusader king were handled with holy reverence.

Reduced to dust by eight centuries, the of the legendary warrior was analysed by modern lab technology.

It indicates that the organ was treated with the veneration reserved for a Christian relic, said Philippe Charlier of the Raymond Poincare University Hospital in Garches, near Paris.

"We found things that we didn't expect," said Charlier, one of the world's top historical pathologists.

Mediaeval embalmers used mercury and tar-like creosote to preserve the heart, then applied frankincense, myrtle, daisy and mint to it so that it would smell sweet, his team found.

The organ was then wrapped in linen and sealed for eternity inside a lead box.

"The frankincense is something we have never seen until now. It is a substance whose use comes directly from divine inspiration," he said in an interview with AFP.

"It was one of the three gifts brought by the Wise Men at Jesus's birth, and it was used by Joseph of Arimathea to help preserve Jesus's body at his death. So using it is a direct reference to Christ."

The probe, reported in the journal Scientific Reports, sheds light on the contemporary status of a king that across Western Europe became the emblem of gallantry.

Through today's prism, though, many historians say the Lionheart was a neglectful king and war mongerer who slaughtered thousands of hostages in his battle to wrest Jerusalem from Saladin.

King Richard I died in 1199 at 41 while fighting the French in Chalus, central France, where he was shot in the left shoulder by a crossbow arrow, reputedly fired by a boy.

He died 12 days later, presumably from or gangrene, although some folk tales suggest the arrow was deliberately poisoned.

In line with tradition, his body was "partitioned."

Historical documents say most of his body was buried at Fontevraud Abbey in the western Loire Valley, close to the remains of his mother and father.

His entrails were buried in Chalus, in what historians say may have been intended insult to the French.

But the heart—an organ then believed to be the site of the soul—was buried in the cathedral at Rouen in Normandy, then an English possession.

On July 31 1838, Rouen historian Achille Deville made an astonishing discovery.

During an excavation of the cathedral, a lead box about the size of a large book tumbled into the crypt.

The box was engraved with a funerary inscription—"HIC IACET COR RICARDI REGIS ANGLORUM" (Here lies the heart of Richard, king of the English)—and inside lay a brownish-white dust.

Charlier's team was permitted to take two grammes (0.07 ounces) from the 80 grammes inside.

They analysed the precious sample visually, using an electron microscope, before scanning it for chemical compounds with gas chromatography.

The team were not authorised to test for DNA, which would have required a far bigger sample. In any case, the result would have been fuzzy given the presence of lead, which degrades DNA, said Charlier. Carbon-dating was also ruled out because of creosote.

There was no clearly identifiable tissue, but there was an antibody reaction to myoglobin, a tell-tale protein found in human muscle, which implies the heart. Several bacteria and fungi species were spotted, but none confirming how Richard died.

The scrutiny revealed a tiny scrap of linen and ancient pollen from poplar, oak and pine that probably came from airborne contamination before the box was sealed.

Twelfth-century embalmers were usually cooks and butchers, who were used to cutting meat and removing offal and had access to herbs, spices and other aromatic substances, said Charlier.

But—contrary to a popular image of the Middle Ages as being barbarous—the individual or individuals who worked on Richard's heart "were extremely skilled," combining complex metals, including liquid mercury, with vegetal residues.

If the heart was reduced to dust, this was probably because water crept into the box over time, he said.

The heart may have been carefully preserved for reasons of dogma, said the study, which drew on expertise from historians.

According to calculations by a 13th-century English bishop, "Richard the Lionheart spent 33 years in Purgatory as expiation for his sins, and ascended to Heaven only in March 1232," it said.

(c) 2013 AFP

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  • Tracy Bulla

Tracy BullaAs 2013 draws to a close, it's time to explore what lies in store for the coming year. Sherwin-Williams has unveiled its Color Forecast 2014, which groups 38 key colors into four individual palettes.
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