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Col. Frank Ryan
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Rebuilding America

Oil: Surplus or Deflation?

by Frank Ryan

What is behind the oil price decline

Conventional wisdom indicates slowing global economy and increased production are the root causes behind the precipitous drop in oil prices since mid-2014.

To limit the analysis of the decline in oil prices to something as simple as supply and demand is overlooking a potentially dangerous economic reality — deflation. Deflation, if present, must be dealt with using entirely different tools than those presently used in fiscal and monetary policy. In reality, current fiscal and monetary policy may be increasing the risk of a deflationary spiral.

Japan and the European Union have been dealing with deflationary concerns for an extended period of time. Even in the United States, the potential for a deflationary spiral has been discussed by the Federal Reserve in its Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The Federal Reserve's primary concern, however, has been the impact of deflation on the world and not in the United States.

The differences between price declines due to supply and demand versus a deflationary spiral are substantial, and the strategies to deal with the two are different. Policies which fail to deal with the principle reason for the decline in oil prices might in fact exacerbate the economic problems the world is currently facing.

Deflation is characterized by falling prices, falling incomes, declining value of real estate and an inability to fund government debt and unfunded obligations.

Since the 1980s, the world financial leaders have been continuously battling one crisis after another with each cycle becoming more severe and more pronounced.

The potential reasons for these erratic results are that the central banks are fighting the wrong problem. They are attempting to stimulate demand where they need to make significant structural changes to the economy to combat deflation.

The unintended consequences of the current policy decisions have been severe and have not resulted in economic growth.

In Keynesian economic theory, government spending is used to smooth out economic cycles. The danger of such policies is that the negative growth effects of existing substantial government debt are not factored into the economic model because massive government debt was not a significant problem in 1936 when Keynes authored his theory. Keynes theory warned of deficit financing becoming a way of life in the political process yet political realities encourage this irresponsible behavior to garner votes.

In 2009, German economist Ulrich van Suntum proposed Keynesian Economics 2.0, arguing for a monetary approach to solving the current economic quagmire. The thought process was Keynesian theories were outmoded in the economic problems of the mortgage created crisis of 2008.

These academic exercises fail, however, to consider the tragic effects of misguided fiscal and monetary policy as the potential cause of the current economic disaster.

The Federal Government's perception is that government spending creates demand. The pure monetarist believes that lower interest rates stimulate demand.

Both fiscal and monetary policies have some merit under many circumstances. When those conditions no longer exist, however, the historical policies of more spending and lower interest rates set the stage to trigger a horrific deflationary cycle.

Additionally, the presence of extensive governmental debt beyond a certain point may have a negative economic impact when the rate of growth of debt slows.

Unfortunately, no one knows how much "too much debt is," but there is a limit. In reality, debt does matter.

Further signs of the impact of deflation, despite trillions of stimulus funds, include:

1. Negative interest rates on short-term securities and debt instruments.

2. The reduction of risk premiums in short and long-term debt financing for governments.

3. Increasing costs of healthcare for virtually every American, which adversely affects disposable income.

4. Declining real wages in the United States due to tax increases at the state and local levels.

5. Declines in labor force participation rates.

6. Lack of wage growth despite allegedly higher employment since 2008.

7. Substantially declining commodity prices.

The implications of the causes of the declining oil prices in particular and commodity prices in general are profound.

Deflation has devastating effects in every aspect of life.

First, anyone with debt will find it more difficult to repay the debt in a deflationary cycle.

Second, organizations with high fixed cost such as airlines, hospitals, automobile manufacturers, drug and pharmaceutical companies, governments, and sports teams will find that they must reduce prices in order to cover their fixed costs or risk losing customers. While this strategy works in the short run, the economic consequences of the lower prices will ultimately translate into lower pay.

Third, once the deflation cycle starts, the ability of a society to pay for things such as Social Security, retirement benefits, unfunded obligations, and any type of retiree healthcare cost will be impaired.

Monetary and fiscal policies can only do so much for so long before they become ineffective.

To reverse the effects of deflation, government spending and taxes must be reduced. Government must also improve the regulatory climate and avoid intervening in periods of economic stress because it only reinforces the concept that there are no negative consequences for bad economic decisions. Finally, to stop a deflationary spiral, our government must reduce uncertainty and provide stable, consistent policies that permit planning by job creators.

Until our government realizes that the culmination of accommodating fiscal and monetary policies for decades is leading to a deflationary spiral, we are doomed to even greater economic volatility than we have ever experienced in the past.

Solve the deflation problem! It is not just about supply and demand. It's about spending, taxes, and uncertainty.


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Joseph W. Spatafora, Fax: 1-541-737-3573; E-mail:

Grass-associated fungi (grass symbionts) in the family Clavicipitaceae (Ascomycota, Hypocreales) are species whose host range is restricted to the plant family Poaceae and rarely Cyperaceae. The best-characterized species include Claviceps purpurea (ergot of rye) and Neotyphodium coenophialum (endophyte of tall fescue). They have been the focus of considerable research due to their importance in agricultural and grassland ecosystems and the diversity of their bioactive secondary metabolites. Here we show through multigene phylogenetic analyses and ancestral character state reconstruction that the grass symbionts in Clavicipitaceae are a derived group that originated from an animal pathogen through a dynamic process of interkingdom host jumping. The closest relatives of the grass symbionts include the genera Hypocrella, a pathogen of scale insects and white flies, and Metarhizium, a generalist arthropod pathogen. These data do not support the monophyly of Clavicipitaceae, but place it as part of a larger clade that includes Hypocreaceae, a family that contains mainly parasites of other fungi. A minimum of 5–8 independent and unidirectional interkingdom host jumps has occurred among clavicipitaceous fungi, including 3–5 to fungi, 1–2 to animals, and 1 to plants. These findings provide a new evolutionary context for studying the biology of the grass symbionts, their role in plant ecology, and the evolution of host affiliation in fungal symbioses.


Friday, March 25, 2016

Time Travelers I Have Met

Time travel will be discovered in approximately the year 3050

By Dr. Bruce Goldberg
Time travel will be discovered in approximately the year 3050 by a man named Taatos. He is the Hermes of ancient Egypt and the very first chrononaut (time traveler). Prior to his actually traveling back in time, holographic images were sent into the past. This is why the ancient Egyptians, Greeks, Romans, etc. described "visions" by their oracles, soothsayers and psychics.
We can summarize the characteristics of time travelers as follows:
  • Genetic manipulation of our chromosomes is a routine procedure for them. They have greatly speeded up our rate of evolution.
  • Their main purpose is to accelerate our spiritual growth.
You do not have to be abducted to talk (telepathically) with a time traveler. It is simply a matter of using the Fifth Dimensional Travel exercise that I present on this website.
The first time traveler I met in hyperspace (the fifth dimension) was a pure human calling himself Traksa. He lives in the thirty-sixth century on Earth when time travel is manifested by way of teleportation. This means that Traksa can beam his physical body back to our century without requiring a spacecraft.
Time travelers use names that represent their current mission. One of Traksa's assignments consisted of introducing me to Art Bell. If you spell his name backwards it reads "ASK ART!" I have had the pleasure of being interviewed by Art nine times. Good work Traksa.
Time Traveler
Here are some of the other chrononauts I have met in hyperspace (fifth dimensions):
  1. MUAT - Traksa'a supervisor.  He was active in Mu (Lemuria) and Atlantis and is from the 40th Century.
  2. NIREV - 31st century - Focused on the Industrial Revolution
  3. ALSINOMA - 34th century -Tutored Da Vinci (Mona Lisa)
Chrononauts are spiritual people. They follow us from lifetime to lifetime, tracing our souls back to previous lives and monitoring our spiritual unfolding. Their ultimate purpose is to facilitate the perfection of the human soul to allow for ascension and the end of the karmic cycle. There are also future problems - wars, pollution, infertility - in this and parallel universes that they are trying to avert by assisting us now in our spiritual progress.
Try my Fifth Dimension Travel exercise or, CD tapes and feel free to contact me to share your experiences with meeting your own time traveler.

Hypnotherapist DR. BRUCE GOLDBERG who has regressed an enormous amount of people talks about humans time travelers from the future, how they have amusement parks which let them travel to ANY time period and then some! Hear this exhilarating interview here ON-DEMAND!


Earth Hour will take place on 25 March 2017. What are you going to do?

As new media technologies continue to infiltrate and pervade aspects of everyday life, is the way we think about and engage with...

Animal welfare organisations are reeling from the decision that they will no longer receive funding from by the National Lotteries...

The need to save water is more vital now than ever.

Little J'aime was rescued and taken into the care of The Rhino Orphanage

Pole to pole is simply everything I've done in my life as an explorer, in one expedition, says Mike Horn.

"What is it about wild animals that make humans lose all inhibitions," asks Anje Rautenbach


Michael Hoffman

     Michael Hoffman's paintings are meditative studies done with rich colors and bold graphic compositions. "I often incorporate circles, grids and stripes. The universality and appeal of this symbology pulls the viewer in and holds them there to explore the subtle details. I try to create work that both captivates and calms. I work with abstractions because I want to put forth something universal that can be open to interpretations that are unique to each individual and can continue to evolve over time. A common theme in my painting is the relationship between rigid linear form and the organic flow of nature, order and disorder. I feel this is reflective in many ways of our society and peoples’ longing for something more than the sterility of technology in our modern lives. I believe inclusion of these two elements creates a certain universal harmony in many of my paintings." - Michael Hoffman My pieces are also about the act of painting itself. I explore the physical nature of my materials and push to use unique and original methods of applying them. Many times there is strong evidence of my physical relationship to the canvas as I paint - using my body motion as a natural pendulum and the random arcs of my markings. Other works are done on wood pan¬els that I coat with a plaster mixture and carve into before it sets. The geometrical markings bring to mind old nautical maps and celestial charts. I then apply multiple rounds of color washes (oil paints thinned with a with a clear oil based polyurethane medium) giving the work a richly colored almost glass-like surface. By virtue of the tactile painting surfaces and trans¬parent and linear handling much of the process is revealed that can be traced chronologically. This leaves the paintings with a sense of history and ‘archeology’.

Pineapple Grove Art District

206 N.E 2nd Street, Delray Beach Florida 33444

(561) 278-5700


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Retail Store Manager - Orange Twp, OH

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POST DATE 8/26/2016
END DATE 10/11/2016

Gordon Food Service Columbus, OH

Gordon Food Service
Job Classification
Full Time
Company Ref #
Columbus, OH
Mid-Career (2 - 15 years)
Job Type
High School Diploma or GED
AJE Ref #

As a Store Manager you will create a team atmosphere where the Gordon Food Service (GFS) values and philosophies flourish to help build and drive sales through the customer is king mentality. You will assume accountability for all facets of GFS Marketplace store operations and ensure that the GFS Marketplace vision of providing superior customer service and restaurant quality foodservice product is achieved. The Store Manager also focuses on sales, as well as development of the management and sales associate team, ensuring that policies, procedures, facilities, and overall store operations are consistently maintained.

Additional Responsibilities will include:

* Provide hands-on leadership style, setting excellent work ethic example, a sense of urgency, and a positive attitude for assistant managers and sales associates.

* Manage the monthly Profit and Loss (P&L) and assist in the Annual Operating Plan (AOP) budgeting process. Take appropriate action and develop plans for performance improvements. Responsible for meeting and exceeding all financial indicators including sales, labor, margin, general expenses, and bottom line profit.

* Interview, hire, orient, train, and retain staff.

* Conduct performance monitoring of staff, personnel evaluations, initiating follow-through with disciplinary action and termination in consultation with Human Resources and District Manager when appropriate.

* Assist in developing capital and operational budget for the store.

* Provide the store management team with day-to-day direction including schedules, store priorities, leading manager meetings, and supporting the team with the execution and follow up of operations, sales and service, and merchandising programs in the store.

* Promote a store culture that focuses on driving sales through outside sales call efforts and creates a strong, in-store sales culture.

* Adhere to and support all policies and procedures of GFS.

* Manage the maintenance and upkeep of the store.

* Taking on other duties as needed.

Position Requirements:

* High school diploma, Bachelor s degree in business or related field preferred

* Proficiency with spreadsheet, word processing, email and Internet programs

* Excellent customer service, organizational, public speaking and written/verbal communication skills

* Strong problem-solving, leadership and multitasking abilities

* Talent for driving sales with a "Customer is King" focus

What we offer our employees at Gordon Food Service:

* Well-defined career opportunities within our retail stores

* Comprehensive medical, dental, vision and prescription insurance

* Competitive compensation, including bonus opportunities

* Time off benefits

* Matching 401k program

* Profit sharing

* Tuition reimbursement

* Team-oriented, fun working environment

* Employee discounts

All Gordon Food Service locations are tobacco free.


Organisms develop coping mechanisms to protect themselves from adverse conditions. In a more advanced way, bacteria and viruses also use these mechanisms, but are even able to camouflage themselves against the attacker — their host's immune system. One such virus is the Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV), which successfully avoids detection from our immune system and proliferates inside the human body without being recognized.

Research on the virus was carried out at the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI) in Braunschweig, and a paper on their work was published in the Journal of Virology, according to a press release.

KSHV, or HHV-8, as it is formally called, is an oncovirus responsible for a range of diseases including, primary effusion lymphoma and some types of Castleman's disease. But it is mostly associated with Kaposi's sarcoma, a cancer occurring in immunosuppressed AIDS patients. It is a gammaherpesvirus, a virus that remains dormant until it's able to establish lifelong infections in its host.

Generally, when viruses attack the body, they are “fought off immediately by an antiviral immune response that is triggered by sensors including the toll-like receptors (TLR)," HZI researcher and author of the study Dr. Kendra Bussey said in the release. TLR are a class of proteins that are expressed on the surface of the immune system’s fighter cells, including macrophages and dendritic cells. TLRs identify pathogens based on certain patterns called pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) displayed on their surfaces or DNA. This recognition then triggers a series of immune response pathways that flush out the pathogen.

But this recognition does not seem to work against KSHV or other kinds of gammaherpesviruses, and enables them to remain in the host's body for life. The HZI scientists detected their concealment mechanism while part of a research group called "Viral Immune Modulation.” Led by Professor Melanie Brinkmann, the group was able to show that the virus was somehow bypassing detection by messing up a function of the TLR, although exactly which part and how it's done has yet to be discovered.

The scientists are optimistic that this finding will help in the development of therapeutic options against gammaherpesviruses. “Those agents could actively protect the immune system and prevent viruses from winning the fight against it," Bussey said in the release. "However, this is still a long way off."

There are still a number of pathogens whose methods of invading and causing disease in the human body need to be researched. The "Viral Immune Modulation" group seeks to shed light on these viruses and their mechanisms, particularly that of the herpes viruses.

Source: Bussey K, Reimer E, Todt H, et al. The gammaherpesviruses KSHV and MHV68 modulate the TLR-induced proinflammatory cytokine response. Journal of Virology. 2014.


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References & Citations

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Mathematics > Spectral Theory

Title: The Morse and Maslov indices for multidimensional Schrödinger operators with matrix-valued potentials

Abstract: We study the Schr\"odinger operator $L=-\Delta+V$ on a star-shaped domain $\Omega$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with Lipschitz boundary $\partial\Omega$. The operator is equipped with quite general Dirichlet- or Robin-type boundary conditions induced by operators between $H^{1/2}(\partial\Omega)$ and $H^{-1/2}(\partial\Omega)$, and the potential takes values in the set of symmetric $N\times N$ matrices. By shrinking the domain and rescaling the operator we obtain a path in the Fredholm-Lagrangian-Grassmannian of the subspace of $H^{1/2}(\partial\Omega)\times H^{-1/2}(\partial\Omega)$ corresponding to the given boundary condition. The path is formed by computing the Dirichlet and Neumann traces of weak solutions to the rescaled eigenvalue equation. We prove a formula relating the number of negative eigenvalues of $L$ (the Morse index), the signed crossings of the path (the Maslov index), the number of negative eigenvalues of the potential matrix evaluated at the center of the domain, and the number of negative squares of a bilinear form related to the boundary operator.
Comments: 62 pages, 1 figure. Second version: typos corrected; additional references added
Subjects: Spectral Theory (math.SP); Analysis of PDEs (math.AP); Functional Analysis (math.FA); Symplectic Geometry (math.SG)
Cite as: arXiv:1408.1103 [math.SP]
  (or arXiv:1408.1103v2 [math.SP] for this version)

Submission history

From: Graham Cox [view email]
[v1] Tue, 5 Aug 2014 20:08:02 GMT (74kb)
[v2] Wed, 3 Jun 2015 21:54:50 GMT (77kb)


NJ RCFL History

To gain a deeper appreciation of the importance of having a Regional Computer Forensics Laboratory (RCFL) in New Jersey, it is helpful to have an understanding of the evolution of computer forensics, a relatively new discipline that involves the application of science and engineering to the problem of digital evidence. In 1984, the FBI launched their first computer forensic initiative with the “Magnetic Media Program” which conducted forensic examinations on just three cases for the entire year. Today, the situation is much different. Criminals are using high technology in unprecedented numbers to develop and maintain their illegal enterprises. As a result, traditional offenses such as financial and commercial crimes are being automated, and the paper trail is now an electronic trail with records that are coded, encrypted or stored. It takes the special expertise of a computer forensics examiner to find, decipher and interpret this data. However, law enforcement agencies on levels of government, usually don't have enough of these technical experts on staff to meet the demand. That is why the RCFL program was initially created, and why it is playing such an important role in building this capacity across the Nation.

In 1999, the FBI joined forces with area federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies and opened the first RCFL in San Diego, CA. This was a great success, and since then, the FBI, in cooperation with their partners in law enforcement, have established RCFLs in Dallas (North Texas RCFL), San Diego (San Diego RCFL), Kansas City (Heart of America RCFL), Portland (Northwest RCFL), Denver (Rocky Mountain RCFL), Menlo Park (Silicon Valley RCFL), Chicago (Chicago RCFL), Houston (Greater Houston RCFL), Philadelphia (Philadelphia RCFL), Salt Lake City (Intermountain West RCFL), Buffalo (Western New York RCFL), Kentucky (Kentucky RCFL), Albuquerque (New Mexico RCFL), and Orange County (Orange County RCFL).


Collins Hemingway

Collins Hemingway … is a graduate of the University of Arkansas, Phi Beta Kappa, with a major in English literature and a minor in science. He has a master’s degree in English literature from the University of Oregon, with concentrations in Eighteenth Century literature, Renaissance literature, and modern literature. While his high-tech career gave him a practical understanding of science and business, Hemingway also carried on his passion for the art of storytelling, for the rich history of Georgian-Regency England and the Napoleonic wars, and for Jane Austen’s literature. His own fiction is shaped by the language of the heart and an abiding regard for courage in the face of adversity.

Marriage JA -HemingwayEveryone Should Marry Once for Love—Even Jane Austen

But when, after a series of disappointing relationships, the prospect of true love arrives for her, will she have the courage to act? Can she set aside her quietude and escape confining social conventions to find a true and equal partnership? The Marriage of Miss Jane Austen reimagines the life of England’s archetypal female by exploring what might have happened if she ever married—when life gives her the opportunity for meaningful love with a man who inspires her and understands her independent spirit.

This love story also takes the heroine out of her safe country villages and plunges her into what the Regency era was really about: great explorations and scientific advances, political foment, and devastating war.

In such times, can love—can marriage—triumph?

“All readers of Jane Austen wonder what Jane’s life might have been like had she married, or had money. The Marriage of Miss Jane Austen explores these intriguing possibilities. It also depicts Austen in a rapidly changing world, connecting her to important aspects of the era—war, slavery, industrialization, and new modes of travel. Hemingway’s book raises many ‘what ifs’ in his thoughtful and thought-provoking portrayal of Jane Austen falling in love.”
—Susannah Fullerton, President, Jane Austen Society of Australia, author of Jane Austen and Crime, A Dance with Jane Austen and Happily Ever After: Celebrating Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice

The Marriage of Miss Jane Austen: A Novel by a Gentleman Volume II

Marriage JA2 -Hemingway

Jane Austen Lived a Quiet, Single Life—Or Did She?

Tradition holds that Jane Austen lived a contemplative unmarried life. But what if she wed a man as passionate and intelligent as she—and the marriage remained secret for 200 years? The Marriage of Miss Jane Austen resolves the biggest mystery of Austen’s life—the “lost years” of her twenties—of which historians know virtually nothing.

Why the enduring rumors of a lost love or tragic affair? Why, afterward, did the vivacious Austen prematurely put on “the cap of middle age” and close off any thoughts of finding love? Why, after her death, did her beloved sister destroy her letters and journals?

“A skillful portrayal of an early nineteenth-century literary icon takes this historical romance on an imaginative journey of the soul." —Foreword CLARION Reviews, 4 stars

"Hemingway, with the lightest touch, builds up a thoroughly convincing alternative history." —Jane Austen’s Regency World

—Blueink Starred Review

Non-fiction books by Collins Hemingway


English Guide: Practical Tips for Better English Communication

misused words literally In our last blog, we discussed words that are commonly misused in English. In this article, we will add some more words that are commonly misused. Knowing the correct usage will help you to enhance your vocabulary as well as spoken English Skills which will help you to speak effectively. Let us look at the words.10 words with incorrect usage1. An effectAn effect means either to influence or to fake whereas to effect means to put into effect.Examples:The new...
give it a shot In our last blog, we taught you few phrases that can be used for encouraging someone. When you use these phrases in your communication, it not only helps you to motivate someone but also improves your English-speaking skills. Let’s have a look at some positive phrases that will improve your English skills and help you encourage someone.6 phrases you must know1. You are almost there!This phrase is best to encourage someone who is about to...
interjections In our earlier blog, we provided a fun guide to interjections which help us in our day to day conversation. Interjections are words for the emotions and expressions that we make. These interjections words depict our emotions like surprise, agreement, disagreement, sarcasm, shock etc. In today’s blog, we will explain interjections to be used to express your emotions which will help you in your everyday conversations using “expressive...
couch potato Idioms play an important role in English language. They help to express your feelings in a figurative manner. In today’s lesson, we will describe people and their characteristics with idiomatic expressions. These people might be your friends, cousins, co-workers and to some your family members. All these characters are different from each other and have a unique differentiating factor through which we identify or know them. Let us learn the...
relationships February is a month of love and people all over the world celebrate their relationships. While not everyone might be in a relation, but everyone might surely be aware of relationships. Today’s English lesson will provide you with some phrases which are used in English communication while conversing about relationships.7 vocabulary terms to talk about relationships1. Long distance relationshipMeaning - A relationship where the two people who are in...
compliment man Women get compliments more often for their looks, smile, the way they walk or talk etc. However, it’s not always that women get compliments; men too get compliments. Men also like to get compliments. Who doesn’t like to get praised for their appearance? As a small gesture, you can compliment them on their appearance – it might be their new hairstyle, beard, moustache etc. The only thing to remember here is to use adjectives like cool, handsome, trendy,...
act your age Age is something that is never shared and asking a girl or a woman her age, is considered bad manners. People rarely talk about their age and salary. Although, while conversing in English, people refer to idioms related to age to give a hint about their age,no one wants to reveal their actual age and want to be referred to as a sweet sixteen. Sweet sixteen is regarded as the characteristic age of prettiness and innocence in a girl. In today’s...
article thumbnailLife is full of surprises and shocks. You might never know when a surprise can turn into a shock. There are many times when we warn people to avoid taking too many risks or if they are climbing up a ladder you might warn them to be safe. Sometimes we see formal notices, pictures, posters that act as warnings about dangers. For e.g. If someone is investing all his money in stock market, you might warn them to avoid taking too many risks or...
article thumbnailYou know it's the last month of the year, and you are in celebration and vacation mood. And not to forget, the favorite season, winter. Who doesn’t like winter or let’s say who doesn’t like to sit indoors by the fireside in the mornings and evenings with a hot cup of tea. We all love it. With a week or a few days away from Christmas and New Year, we are already in party mood. People visit their family and friends to spend their time and enjoy...
article thumbnailIn our last blog, we listed five holiday idioms that described the holiday. In today’s blog, we will discuss few more idioms and phrases that are related to holidays. Most of the people in foreign countries use holiday phrases and idioms while conversing in English. So, having a fair knowledge about these with their meaning will come handy when you are on a vacation.5 Holiday phrases and idioms1. Let your hair down Meaning - to allow yourself to...
article thumbnailhttp://eagetutor.com/December is that time of the month when many countries are in a festive mood. Christmas and New Year bring holidays and celebration mood along with them. In many English-speaking countries, they send gifts and greetings to wish their friends and family. If you are planning a vacation in any of the countries especially in December, then knowing some holiday greetings might surely help you. Even if you don’t celebrate...
article thumbnailMany times in life, we find people who poke their nose in every matter. They are curious to know everything that happens in our life. Sometimes it becomes difficult to avoid these people as they might be our friend or a close relative. We don’t like to answer each question. So, in today’s blog, we are bringing you some English phrases which will help you avoid answering an unwanted question.6 phrases to be used1. (Sorry) That’s personalThis phrase must...
article thumbnailPhrasal verbs are a combination of words which consist of a verb and a preposition or a combination of verb and adverb. When these words are combined, they usually give a different meaning. Knowingly or unknowingly, we are using some common phrasal verbs in our day to day life. To know and understand those common phrasal verbs we are here to help you out. Today, we will provide you phrasal verbs that are used in our day to day life.10 daily...
article thumbnailAdjectives are words that describe nouns or give information about the noun. A native English speaker uses various adjectives while communicating in English. Using adjectives in a sentence means enhancing the language by making it interesting. In our day to day life, we use many adjectives while speaking and writing in English. For e.g. If someone asks, how are you? You say, I am fine or I am doing good. However, an English learner would use...
article thumbnailIn our recent blog, we listed vocabularies related to beach, sea, and ocean. Today, we will explain expressions and idioms related to the sea. May it be a beach, ocean, or a sea, who doesn’t love spending time and relaxing there. Many times, when you are with your colleagues over a casual chat, you might have heard idiomatic expressions that are figurative in nature. For e.g. It is raining cats and dogs. However, this sentence means it's...
article thumbnailIn our last blog, we explained about idioms and expressions related to ocean and sea. This blog will help you learn some more idioms which will improve your English communication. Let’s have a look at these idioms.9 must know idioms1. Take sand to the beachMeaning – A pointless or useless activityE.g. Why don’t you understand, hiring a cab for 5 minute distance is like taking sand to the beach.2. Drink like a fishMeaning – When someone...
article thumbnailWho doesn’t love spending time on the beach? Summer is the perfect time to hit the beach. The warm weather gives a perfect reason to visit the beach and get some cool breeze. People visit the beach for various reasons. If you happen to get a chance to visit a beach especially in a foreign country, then don’t miss this opportunity. The beaches there are very different. Before you hit the beach learn some beach vocabulary that would help to...
article thumbnailIn our last blog, we explained a few beach vocabulary words. People visit beaches for various purpose. Some go for adventure while others go for relaxing their mind. No matter what the reason is, if you are visiting the beach, knowing these words will help you while conversing with a native speaker.Must know beach vocabulary words1. ShoreShore is the area where sand meets the ocean or sea.2. SandbarWhen the force of the water pushes the...
article thumbnailIn English language, we have words to describe every particular thing in this world. May it be a person or an animal, we have names for every species. Although, when it comes to gender, many people find it difficult to understand the noun gender. So, in this blog, we will explain gender nouns for all English learners.Types of gender nouns There are four types of gender nouns which will be explained below:1. Masculine genderWe say a noun is a...
article thumbnailIn life, there are times when we face situations where we lose our loved ones or near and dear ones. It might be anyone from our friend’s family or our family or even a pet. The loss is huge which can’t be replaced in any manner. Generally, people don’t understand what to say or how to console the person. The words might fall short when you try to give condolences to the bereaved. If you happen to come under such unexpected situations, then try...

Solving Integers

Operations on integers

We have the following operations on integers:

Let’s discuss each one of them in detail:

Addition of Integers

We have three cases under this:

  • If both integers are positive:

We will learn this by using examples :

Add: 2 + 3

As we can see that both 2 and 3 are positive, so the answer to the above problem is 5.

  • If both integers are negative :

Add: (-2) + (-3)
Here, both -2 and -3 are negative integers, so we will add 2 and 3 that is we will get 5 and in the final answer we will put a negative sign before the answer.
So the final answer is -5

  • If one integer is positive and other one negative:

Solve: 2 + (-3)
In such case, we find the difference of their absolute values and prefix the sign of the integer whose absolute value is greater.
As in the above example, absolute value of -3 is greater than 2 so we get the answer as -1

Subtraction of Integers

Subtraction is the inverse of addition. Here also we have three cases:

  • If both integers are positive:

For example: Subtract 3 from 7.
7 – 3 = 4

  • If both are negative integers:

Suppose, we want to subtract -3 from -5
We proceed like this:
-5 – (-3)
Negative of a negative integer is the corresponding positive number.
-5 + 3 = -2

  • If one is negative and other one is positive:

For example: Subtract -3 from 5
5 – (-3) = 5 + 3 = 8

Multiplication of Integers

Multiplication is repeated addition. As in addition and subtraction, in multiplication also we have three cases :

  • If both integers are positive :

When both integers are positive, we multiply their absolute values and prefix plus sign to the product.
For example: Multiply 6 by 2
6 x 2 = 12

  • If both are negative integers :

When both integers are negative, we multiply their absolute value and prefix plus sign.
For example: (-6) x (-3) = 18

  • If one is negative and other one is positive:

When one integer is positive and the other is negative, we multiply their absolute values and prefix minus sign to their product.
For example: (-12) x 3 = 36

Division of Integers

Division is the inverse of multiplication. We have two cases under division of integers :

  • Division of integers with like signs :

To divide two integers of like signs, we divide their absolute values and prefix (+) sign.
Example 1 : Divide: 10 by 5
10 ÷ 5 = 2
Example 2 : Divide (-14) by (-7)
(-14) ÷ (-7) = 2

  • Division of integers with unlike signs:

To divide two integers of opposite signs, we divide their absolute values and prefix minus (-) sign.
For example: Divide: -15 by 3
-15 ÷ 3 = -5

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5  :  Quick start: demo queries, tutorial(s)

Here we provide a large number of example SQL queries tailored to the Millennium databases. These are meant as examples for learning SQL and the database schema at the same time. The generic queries are the ones available under the demo query buttons on the main web page. As an example of what could constitute a complete SQL session we provide queries that reproduce the (content of the) figures in De Lucia & Blaizot 2006.

This area of the documentation will be under continuous construction, as we plan to add here interesting SQL solutions that allow particular questions to be answered efficiently. We invite users to submit some of these, possibly after publication of a paper.

A tutorial on SQL and the Millennium database in the form of a Microsoft power-point presentation is available from this link.


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Mineral governance barometer - Southern Africa

Thu, 03/23/2017 - 03:35

Southern Africa is endowed with lucrative mineral resources such as diamonds, gold, copper, coal, platinum, and uranium.  This rich endowment can be a major asset in the quest for inclusive and sustainable development, yet mining in Southern Africa has often been criticised as an enclave sector that at best contributes little to economic development and at worst does substantial social and environmental harm.  To avoid such pitfalls emerging international consensus emphasises the importance of good mineral governance. This involves the adoption and implementation of regulatory frameworks that promote deeper linkages between the mining sector and the broader economy, and that protect people and the environment from the potentially harmful consequences of mineral extraction.

This pilot study provides a barometer of mineral governance in ten Southern African countries: Botswana, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Namibia, South  Africa,  Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The barometer takes stock of mining regulations in place at the end of 2015, the extent to which they are implemented, and features of supporting institutions.  It is based on the observation that while regulations impose obligations on mining companies, in doing so they directly impose obligations on the state to monitor and enforce compliance, and they also indirectly impose obligations for citizens and civil society to hold the state and mining companies accountable.  The barometer includes indicators of mineral governance  across  four  main  issue-areas:  national  economic  and  fiscal  linkages;  community  impact; labour, and the environment, with artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) treated as a special topic.  The barometer also includes indicators of state capacity and state accountability with respect to mineral governance.

A practical agenda to reducing technical barriers to trade in SADC

Mon, 03/13/2017 - 19:19

Technical regulations refer to product and process specifications, whether voluntary (standards) or legally required (compulsory specifications).

This policy brief provides context for technical regulation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. It then offers some cross-cutting solutions for developing monitoring mechanisms that can allow policymakers to identify problem areas, and some specific interventions for the Standards, Accreditation and Metrology functions that can build capacity at low cost. It provides some recommendations for a practical agenda on reducing Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) in the SADC – ones that can be executed with minimal cost, and that improve the institutional capacity of regional organisations to grapple with the complexity inherent to the field. Above all, these regulations will need to be carefully attuned to assure that they provide the maximum protection for the region from dangerous substandard imports, while still allowing for a dynamic, mutually beneficial trading relationship.

Technical regulation cannot create jobs, but it is a vital underpinning for the type of policies that drive regional integration and create industrial jobs. As it stands, Southern Africa’s technical regulation is developing too fast, with too few controls to ensure that it is directed towards developmental purposes. Capacity expansion that simply results in ever more standards being churned out increases complexity,
but not quality. Practical interventions that create supporting mechanisms – such as monitoring systems, or assistance for firms seeking accreditation – are essential to creating a development-focused regional technical infrastructure.

Innovative risk finance solutions – Insights for geothermal power development in Kenya and Ethiopia

Wed, 03/01/2017 - 17:44

Geothermal development is on the rise in many regions of the world. However, the high costs of field development, coupled with the high risks associated with resource exploration and drilling, still pose a significant barrier to private sector financing.

Insurance can mitigate the risks to investors and increase flows of private finance to the industry.

A project by Parhelion, a private sector insurance and risk company focused on climate finance, funded by CDKN, aimed to improve the technical capacity of Kenya’s and Ethiopia’s local insurance industries for using geothermal risk mitigation instruments.

A consultative process with relevant stakeholders in these countries yielded insights and recommendations for international, multilateral and bilateral institutions that are looking to support geothermal resource development. The analysis was enriched by E3G’s expertise in analysing climate finance flows.

The study found that international, multilateral and bilateral institutions should:

  • Support technical assistance and capacity building, which takes into account the needs of all relevant stakeholders involved within specific country and market contexts.
  • Provide targeted concessional finance by taking into account all possible risk mitigation instruments during project development, and by envisioning the leverage of private finance as early as possible.
  • Use insurance instruments to target specific, well defined risks: this can offer very high leverage ratios on the use of public funds, and crowd in private sector insurance capital.

Can the APRM be an effective tool to monitor Agenda 2063 and the SDGs?

Thu, 02/23/2017 - 18:20
Monitoring and evaluation has emerged as a central concern in development thinking. Both the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the AU’s Agenda 2063 represent responses to Africa’s developmental deficits, with much overlap between them. They will need a robust mechanism to trace the progress that is being made, and this study explores whether – rather than attempting to construct a new system – Africa’s home-grown governance evaluation system, the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), might be able to fulfil this role.
A number of factors make the APRM a natural monitoring tool for the other two initiatives. Each is substantively about governance, and deals with similar subjects. Indeed, the priorities of Agenda 2063 fed into the SDGs, and the APRM has made cooperation between itself, Agenda 2063 and the SDG initiatives a strategic priority. The three initiatives also share broad ideological outlooks, are comprehensive in the scope of their activities, are geared for the long term, envision broad-based participation and seek to engender cross-border cooperation. In broad terms, they are all committed to a democratic, participatory governance framework and developmentally oriented policies. However, there are a number of hindrances to the APRM’s fulfilling this role – at present, these arguably render it incapable of taking on the extensive and ongoing monitoring responsibilities that the other initiatives demand. The APRM has proven larger, more complex and more expensive than its founders realised. It has been slow in conducting reviews, and has not established a consistent set of indicators that would allow for measuring across countries and over time. Nevertheless, the APRM is a recognised brand and is institutionalised as part of the African Governance Architecture. To take on the monitoring of Agenda 2063 and the SDGs it would need to resolve its administrative weaknesses, secure adequate funding and conduct reviews on an ongoing basis. There is also a need to design a continental system of data gathering and analysis to enable precise measurements of progress in meeting the various developmental goals. These are significant challenges, but they describe the necessary rejuvenation of the APRM required for it to become the monitoring tool for the continent’s developmental endeavours.

Africa’s climate: helping decision-makers make sense of climate information

Thu, 02/23/2017 - 17:53
This report is designed as a guide for scientists, policy-makers, and practitioners on the continent. The research in this report, written by leading experts in their fields, presents an overview of climate trends across central, eastern, western, and southern Africa, and is distilled into a series of factsheets that are tailored for specific sub-regions and countries. Some of these capture the current state of knowledge, while others explore the ‘burning scientific questions’ that still need to be answered.

Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend

Tue, 02/21/2017 - 03:19

While fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have started to decline. According to United Nations projections, they will fall further in the coming decades such that by the mid-21st century the ratio of the working-age to dependent population will be greater than in Asia, Europe, and Northern America. This projection suggests Africa has considerable potential to enjoy a demographic dividend. Whether and when it actually materialises, and also its magnitude, hinges on policies and institutions in key realms that include macroeconomic management, human capital, trade, governance, and labour and capital markets. Given strong complementarities among these areas, coordinated policies will likely be most effective in generating the momentum needed to pull Africa’s economies out of a development trap.

Conditional cash transfers in Africa: limitations and potentials

Mon, 02/20/2017 - 17:52
Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) are currently amongst the most popular social protection programmes for addressingpoverty, vulnerabilities, and risks of poor individuals, households and communities in developing Latin American, African, and Asian countries. However, the increasing popularity and adoption of CCTs in Africa have remained highly understudied in comparison to CCTs in Latin America where they originated in the late 1990s and early 2000s. For this reason, this policy brief discusses some of the current limitations and potentials of CCTs as social protection programmes for reducing poverty and developing the human capital of poor individuals, households, and communities in African countries.

The brief begins with an overview of CCTs in general with special reference to Africa in particular. It then examines some of the limitations and potentials of CCTs on the continent. Recommendations:
  • African countries seeking to adopt CCTs should design, implement, and adapt such programmes with due consideration to the propriety and much needed institutional training for state and non-state officials
  • provision of adequate supply-side facilities such as quality schools and healthcare centres should be a condition for implementing CCTs and no community should be excluded from participation for lack of such facilities
  • the eligibility period for participating individuals, communities and households in CCTs should reflect the amount of time needed to fulfil basic education and healthcare needs as appropriate. Universal coverage of all those in need within each community must also supersede limited coverage
  • adequate planning and institutionalisation of programmes should be done to ensure ownership and sustainability of CCT programmes, especially in countries where programmes are funded mainly by donors. But appropriate partnership agreements for overall developmental and social protection purposes should be explored as necessary

Invasive plants and food security in Africa:the potential of Earth Observation Data

Fri, 02/17/2017 - 03:50
The spread of invasive plant species has serious consequences for Africa. Toxic weeds and harmful shrubs significantly shrink rangelands and lower the productivity of major grain foods such as maize (in some instances by up to 45%). Toxic weeds suppress the growth of staple crops and take over fields that could otherwise be used for agriculture. The UN Sustainable Development Goals emphasise the need to better manage land degradation and biodiversity loss and develop strategies to combat poverty.

However, the invasion of rangelands and croplands by harmful non-native species is not specifically mentioned in the UN sustainability framework as a significant and emerging environmental issue. Equally, the AU Commission (AUC) sounds the alarm over rising food insecurity in Africa, but there are no tools or coherent strategies on how to address the challenges posed by invasive species in the context of enhancing food security. This briefing highlights the significance of earth observation (EO) data for the development of tools and strategies to curb the increasing spread of invasive species. Recommendations:
  • amendments to existing and future policy frameworks, such as the CBD and the AUC strategy, are required to emphasise the need to develop more effective and coherent protocols for the management of invasive species
  • spatial occurrence maps of invasive species should be used by decision-makers to better understand and manage their effects on cropland and rangeland productivity, and ultimately food security in Africa
  • policymakers and decision makers need sound evidence on the local uses and impacts of invasive species in order to become aware of their costs and benefits
  • international bodies that promote the use of EO for societal benefit areas (such as GEOSS and UN SPIDER) must include invasive species mapping in their outreach and training agendas. This should be facilitated by country- or region-specific case studies that help to show the potential of EO products to more effectively manage invasive species across borders

Climate change adaption readiness: lessons from the 2015/16 El Niño for climate readiness in Southern Africa

Thu, 02/09/2017 - 01:59
Southern Africa is experiencing its worst drought in at least 35 years. The drought is associated with an acute El Niño cycle, a periodic weather phenomenon that affects weather patterns across large regions of the globe, including Southern Africa. While the El Niño cycle is not linked directly to broader climate change processes, an assessment ofthe region’s responses to the current drought does provide insight into its capacity to respond to severe environmental stresses. Insights drawn from such an assessment allow for a deeper understanding of climate adaptation readiness in the region. This paper concludes that there is a need to expedite the development of regional and national response plans to severe environmental stresses, and in particular to strengthen capacity to effectively implement and co-ordinate appropriate actions. At the national level, response capacity in numerous Southern African states remains low. Even in South Africa, where government capacity is the highest in the region, implementation delays and co-ordination challenges have hampered effective responses to the drought. Yet despite these problems, there have also been successes in regional and national responses to droughts and longer-term climate challenges. Such programmes and innovative responses can be scaled to achieve more far-reaching impacts and thereby further develop the region’s climate adaptation readiness.

Mon, 02/06/2017 - 20:39
Dominant party systems in Southern Africa differ widely in the extent and nature of this dominance, in their overall democratic quality, as well as in public attitudes toward the political opposition. But while there is widespread support for multiparty politics, opposition parties clearly face major obstacles to obtaining majority support in the near future. Five Southern African countries have democracies dominated by parties that emerged from liberation movements and have governed since independence: Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. This paper uses Afrobarometer survey data to analyse popular attitudes toward political opposition parties in these countries. Do citizens support multiparty politics? What are the trends in levels of citizen support for the political opposition? Do citizens believe that opposition parties present a viable alternative to the ruling party? Given the importance of public opinion in maintaining party dominance, findings offer important insights for scholars of democracy in Africa as well as for opposition parties in these countries. Key findings:
  • about seven in 10 citizens in Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe support multiparty competition, compared to only a slim majority (56%) of Mozambicans. On average across all five countries, this support has increased from 55% in 2002/2003 to 67% in 2014/2015
  • however, only minorities endorse an opposition “watchdog” role in Parliament, ranging from 16% of Batswana to 32% of Mozambicans. Even citizens who self-identify as opposition supporters are more likely to say the opposition should collaborate with the government in order to develop the country
  • on average, trust in opposition parties increased significantly in the five countries between 2002 (16%) and 2015 (38%), although it remains well below the levels of trust in the ruling party (56% on average). Public trust in opposition parties is higher than average among citizens with post-secondary education and those living under secure material conditions (both 43%)
  • the proportion of citizens who feel “close to” an opposition party is highest in Botswana (36%), followed by South Africa (34%), Zimbabwe (28%), Namibia (24%), and Mozambique (20%). Affiliation with opposition parties is higher among urban residents, men, citizens aged under 56 years, and those with at least a secondary education
  • while levels of trust in opposition parties are similar in Southern African countries with dominant party systems and those with competitive party systems, there is a significant difference in trust in the ruling party (56% vs. 40%). And citizens of countries with competitive party systems are significantly less likely to self-identify as ruling-party supporters (16% vs. 44% in dominant party systems)
  • among citizens in the five countries with dominant party systems, Namibians are most likely to believe that the opposition presents a viable alternative vision and plan for the country (52%), followed by Mozambicans (45%), Batswana (44%), South Africans (43%), and Zimbabweans (37%). On average, this perception is higher among urban, male, younger, and better-educated citizens
  • only small minorities of Batswana, Mozambicans, Namibians, South Africans, and Zimbabweans believe that opposition parties are most able to address fighting corruption (24%), creating jobs (18%), controlling prices (16%), and improving health services (15%). And although six in 10 (60%) citizens across the five countries say their government is doing “fairly badly” or “very badly” at handling the most important problems facing their country, only 36% believe that another political party could do a better job of addressing them

Emerging trends in Africa’s electoral processes

Thu, 01/19/2017 - 19:02
The quest for competitive elections in Africa, with the modest gains made since the 1990s towards deepeningdemocratisation, continues to underpin the continent’s efforts to create stable and growing democracies. Since the post-Cold War transition from single-party to multiparty systems, most African countries have embraced elections as their preferred option for power transfer. Drawing especially on AU election observation mission reports, this policy briefing examines trends emerging from elections held in 2015 and 2016, and calls for extensive structural, legal and policy reforms. It argues that adherence to and implementation of the AU treaty and non-treaty standards for democratic elections are key to further strengthening electoral processes in Africa. Recommendations:
  • the AU in collaboration with RECs should develop guidelines for constitutional revisions to give effect to Article 10 of the ACDEG
  • electoral calendars must be respected and changes must be mutually agreed by all stakeholders to protect the sanctity of electoral processes
  • inter- and intra-political party dialogues remain key in safeguarding electoral democracy and deepening political pluralism in AU member states
  • governments should develop and adopt social media codes of conduct for elections to protect the fundamental rights to access to information and expression
  • political parties should undertake reforms to address structural exclusion and guarantee equal participation of young people, women and other marginalised groups in political and electoral processes

Mon, 01/16/2017 - 17:09

Africa and external actors

Fri, 01/13/2017 - 04:51
The Cape Town seminar in August 2016 brought together about 30 key scholars, policymakers, and civil society activists to assess bilateral and multilateral relations between Africa’s traditional and non-traditional actors in the post–Cold War era.

Key issues pertaining to Africa’s relations with global actors were discussed under the following three broad themes: bilateral relations with traditional powers: the United States (US), Russia, China, France, and Britain; bilateral relations with  non-traditional powers: India; Japan; the Nordics; and Europe and the Arab world; and multilateral relations: the United Nations (UN), the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), the European Union (EU), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This meeting examined Africa’s relations with eight key bilateral actors or blocs and six major multilateral actors, assessing progress made in the continent’s efforts to increase its leverage in global politics through engagement with external actors. Policy recommendations:
  • pro-Africa lobbyists in the US need to collaborate closely with legislators in the US Congress as well as Washington-based interest groups as they did during South Africa's anti-apartheid struggles in the 1980s. The Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) should also be mobilised to support these battles
  • the tens of thousands of highly-educated Africans in America should further help to build a viable constituency for Africa
  • people-to-people relations are important in Africa’s relations with Russia. Russian cultural centres could therefore contribute to building Russo-African cultural relations to improve language barriers and to strengthen business partnerships with a view to changing stereotypes on both sides
  • African countries should seize the potential opportunities presented by a weakened, less confident, and less cohesive post-“Brexit” Europe to redefine their relations with the European Union. This includes Africa calling for a moratorium on the economic partnership agreements while the EU completes its “divorce settlement” with Britain, and formulating substantive policy responses to issues such as Brexit
  • African countries should leverage China’s and India’s interest in the continent to reduce their dependence on traditional Western powers such as the US, Britain, and France, while Beijing and New Delhi should assist Africa in broadening its export base through technology transfer and knowledge-sharing. Francophone countries on the continent should reduce their political, economic, and cultural dependence on France. Furthermore, Africa must explore how it can borrow from India’s attitude towards aid and development, which is to accept aid as and when needed, and in specific ways to further its own socio-economic development based on a clear definition of its specific interests
  • African governments should develop clear, coordinated positions on their goals and the strategies for achieving them in fora such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation; the Tokyo International Conference on African Development; and in respect of other rapidly emerging economies in the “global South” such as Brazil and India
  • Africa remains a supplier of primary products to external actors, and should change its trade structures so that technical capacity transfer and capacity-building become more of a focus for partnerships with external actors, with local procurement and beneficiation given more prominence. Furthermore, African countries should claim their own individual and collective agency, and strengthen efforts to add value to their primary commodities; diversify their economies; and increase the competitiveness of the export of manufactured products
  • building on the experiences of the Economic Community of West African States Ceasefire Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) in Liberia and Sierra Leone, and the African Union missions in Burundi, Darfur, and Somalia, Africa needs to create an effective peacekeeping force; it must fund its own institutions to a greater extent in order to prevent external actors such as France and the US intervening in Africa in pursuit of their own parochial interests
  • African countries need to regain their influence in the UN General Assembly and Secretariat, and find a unifying issue such as UN Security Council reform, that is of benefit to the entire continent and its Southern allies
  • besides providing the capital to carry out infrastructure projects in Africa, the BRICS New Development Bank should be used as a knowledge development bank to help to differentiate sources of capital and to create more opportunities for investment, trade, and development
  • African countries and their Southern allies must continue to push for genuine transformation of the World Bank and IMF to make decision-making more equitable; African governments at the World Trade Organisation should also continue to work together and develop strategies to achieve trade deals, as well as to build coalitions and develop regional consensus on important issues such as climate change and de-industrialisation

South Africa's trade and investment relationship with the United States post-AGOA

Thu, 01/05/2017 - 20:12

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been recognised as the  cornerstone of America’s engagement with Sub-Saharan Africa for the past 14 years. It is therefore central to an  understanding of the South Africa-US trade relationship. The recent extension of AGOA by  a further 10 years presents many  opportunities for improving that trade relationship and expanding economic ties. There are, however, areas for  caution, as was seen in the debates around the extension of AGOA and the terms of the inclusion of South Africa as a beneficiary of AGOA.

This policy brief considers the three main options available to South Africa in a post-AGOA trade and investment relationship with the United States: to stay in AGOA, negotiate a Free Trade Agreement, or fall back on Most Favoured Nation terms and the Generalized System of Preferences.

India-Africa seed sector collaboration: emerging prospects and challenges

Thu, 01/05/2017 - 19:36

Illicit financial flows estimating trade mispricing and trade-based money laundering for five African countries

Thu, 01/05/2017 - 19:05

Illicit financial flows (IFFs) are garnered through the proceeds of illicit trade, trade mispricing, transfer pricing and other forms of organised profit-motivated crime. This paper focuses on the commercial tax evasion component of illicit financial flows (IFFs), clarifying concepts often used interchangeably, namely transfer pricing, abusive transfer pricing, trade mispricing (or trade mis-invoicing), trade-based money laundering (TBML), tax evasion and tax avoidance. It also shows how they link to IFFs. It estimates the extent of trade mispricing by enhancing the model currently used by Global Financial Integrity, and by developing a TBML model as a means of quantifying IFFs between two developing countries. There are data challenges with this methodology, as it is an estimation of illegal or hidden activities, using the International Monetary Funds Direction of Trade methodology.

The research points to declining trade mispricing in South Africa and Zambia for the period 2013-2015, and Nigeria for the period 2013-2014. Morocco and Egypt exhibit increasing trade mispricing from 2013 to 2014. The TBML model, which addresses the criticism regarding flows between two developing countries, points to increasing financial outflows for all five countries. These flows mean less revenue is available to the fiscus to invest in socio-economic infrastructure and pro-poor growth strategies, which would benefit women and the poor. Policy recommendations address commercial tax evasion as well as proposals to remedy the data anomalies.

Thu, 01/05/2017 - 18:48

Policy recommendations:

Climate models: what they show us and how they can be used in planning

Thu, 01/05/2017 - 04:07
The climate conditions that we experience are the result of complex interactions between processes occurring in the atmosphere and in the oceans. These processes operate at global and local scales and are influenced by other factors, including the land surface, polar ice sheets and the sun. This is why different parts of the world experience different climates. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are computer models that attempt to capture and simulate all these processes, based on our current knowledge. Global Climate Models are run on supercomputers at a number of centres around the world, including the Max Planck Institute in Germany, the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the USA. The models use physical laws and mathematical equations that reflect our understanding of atmospheric and oceanic processes. The nature of planning decisions that are made over the medium term is different from those that are made in the short term. So what is required from climate projections is different from what is needed from shorter-term weather predictions. The resolution provided by GCMs is useful to inform medium- to long-term planning decisions. The poor availability of historical weather observations in some parts of Africa for example limits understanding of how reliable these models are.

Interactive radio’s promising role in climate information services: Farm Radio International concept paper

Mon, 01/02/2017 - 20:35
Farmers require relevant, timely and continuous information and advice regarding historic climate variability, probabilistic seasonal forecasts, and monitoring and short-lead information about growing season weather. Climate services are most useful when built upon dialogue between climate scientists, local expert forecasters, intermediaries, and users such as farmers, pastoralists, project and programme staff, government planners, businesses and others who benefit from climate information (Ambani & Percy 2014). However the cost and limited reach of face-to-face interactions presents challenges to scaling up climate services for smallholder farmers.
Radio broadcasts, on the other hand, have tremendous reach and coverage, and are very efficient. However, radio broadcasts are conventionally one-way methods of disseminating data that do not provide the exchange, discussion and explanation that helps with decision- making. Further, radio broadcasts are fleeting; one either hears them when they are broadcast, or they are missed. If the weather forecasts are broadcast at a time that farmers cannot listen, they are not helpful.
Recent developments in interactive radio, which combines radio with widespread and growing mobile phone access, offer the exciting prospect of combining the benefits of participatory interaction with the immense reach of radio and mobile phones. Interactive radio integrates accurate and interpretive radio broadcasts with “on demand” access to interactive voice response (IVR) systems, SMS services, and unique uses of missed call voting to provide users with personalized feedback and allow for two-way communication and learning.
Interactive radio combines some of the benefits of face-to-face interaction (between farmers and climate experts) found in workshops with the reach of mass media to provide equitable access to female and male rural farmers. This paper proposes a framework and strategy for developing interactive radio programing to extend the reach and benefits of weather and seasonal climate information and related advisory services for smallholder farmers. It offers a promising complement to face-to-face interaction and other methods of delivering climate information to farmers.

Climate-smart livestock interventions in West Africa: a review

Fri, 12/16/2016 - 04:26

The livestock sector is one of the major contributors in agriculture, by some estimates contributing up to 18% of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Of this, about one third is reported to be due to land use change associated with livestock production, another one third is nitrous oxide from manure and slurry management, and roughly 25% is attributed to methane emissions from ruminant digestion.  Recent analysis suggests that developing world regions contribute about two thirds of the global emissions from ruminants, with sub-Saharan Africa a global hotspot for emissions intensities, largely due to low animal productivity, poor animal health and low quality feeds. These numbers suggest, therefore, that there are opportunities for easy gains to be made in terms of mitigation in the livestock sector, as improving feed resource use efficiencies would improve livestock productivity as well as reduce emissions per unit of product. In this context, climate-smart agricultural practices are necessary in the West Africa region and in sub-Saharan Africa in general. Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) is an approach that provides a conceptual basis for assessing the effectiveness of agricultural practice change to support food security under climate change.

This review focuses on livestock-related CSA options in West Africa looking at herd management, feed, grazing management, animal breeding strategies, manure management, and policy options.


Vadim Gluzman’s extraordinary artistry brings back to life the glorious violinistic tradition of the 19th and 20th centuries. His wide repertoire embraces contemporary music and his perfoarmances are heard around the world through live broadcasts and a striking catalogue of award-winning recordings exclusively for the BIS label.

The Israeli violinist appears regularly with major orchestras such as the Chicago Symphony, London Philharmonic, Israel Philharmonic, London Symphony, Leipzig Gewandhaus, Munich Philharmonic, San Francisco Symphony, Minnesota Orchestra and NHK Symphony; and with leading conductors including Neeme Järvi, Michael Tilson Thomas, Andrew Litton, Marek Janowski, Itzhak Perlman, Tugan Sokhiev, Paavo Järvi, Rafael Frühbeck de Burgos, Hannu Lintu and Peter Oundjian. His festival appearances include Verbier, Ravinia, Lockenhaus, Pablo Casals, Colmar, Jerusalem, and the North Shore Chamber Music Festival in Northbrook, Illinois, which was founded by Gluzman and pianistAngela Yoffe, his wife and long-standing recital partner.

In this 2013-14 season, Mr. Gluzman begins a new collaboration as Creative Partner and Principal Guest Artist of the ProMusica Chamber Orchestra in Columbus, Ohio. As Artist of the Year with the Bergen Philharmonic Orchestra, he performs a series of three concerts with conductor Andrew Litton, which will result in a new album of concertos by Shostakovich and Gubaidulina. In the United States Vadim is making his début with the Philadelphia Orchestra under Tugan Sokhiev, and in the United Kingdom, Gluzman’s highly anticipated Wigmore Hall recital follows last year’s acclaimed Proms début.
Vadim Gluzman has given live and recorded premieres of works by composers such as Giya Kancheli, Peteris Vasks, Lera Auerbach and Sofia Gubaidulina. In recent seasons, he has given the UK premieres of Michael Daugherty’s Fire and Blood concerto with the London Symphony Orchestra under Kristjan Järvi; and of Balys Dvarionas’s Violin Concerto with the BBC Symphony Orchestra conducted by Thomas Søndergard.

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

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Alban Berg

Violin Concerto "To the Memory of an Angel"

Alexander Glazunov

Violin Concerto in A minor, Op. 82

Alfred Schnittke

Concerto no. 4 for violin

Antonin Dvorak

Violin Concerto in A minor, Op. 53

Antonio Vivaldi

The Four Seasons, Op. 8
Concerto for four violins in B minor, RV 580
Concerto in A minor, RV 356
Concerto in A major, RV 350
Concerto in A major, RV 352 - "Il Ballo"
Concerto for two violins in A minor, RV 522

Aram Khachaturian

Violin Concerto in D minor, op. 46

Balys Dvarionas

Concerto for violin and orchestra

Benjamin Britten

Violin concerto, Op. 15, No. 1

Camille Saint-Saëns

Violin Concerto No. 3 in B minor, Op. 61
Introduction and Rondo Capriccioso in A minor for Violin and orchestra
Havanaise, Op. 83

Carl Nielsen

Violin Concerto Op. 33

Dmitry Shostakovich

Violin Concerto No. 1 in A minor, Op. 99
Piano Concerto No. 2 in F major, Op. 102

Edouard Lalo

Symphony Espagnole

Erich Wolfgang Korngold

Violin Concerto in D major, Op. 35

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Johann Sebastian Bach

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Johannes Brahms

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Julius Conus

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Karl Goldmark

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Karol Szymanowski

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Leonard Bernstein

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Lera Auerbach

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Ludwig van Beethoven

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Maurice Ravel

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Max Bruch

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Michael Daugherty

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Peteris Vasks

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Richard Rodney Bennet

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Samuel Barber

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Sergej Prokofiev

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Sofiya Asgatovna Gubaidulina

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Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart

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Photo: Marco Borggreve


Your Favourite Bead Store, Lampwork Studio and Online shopping experience

Color Family

Rose Montees

Swarovski rhinestones, pre-mounted in a little metal cup, with 4 holes, one on each side. Excellent for stitching onto garments, or weaving into bead weaving designs.

Use a tough thread like fireline, so that the metal won't wear and cut the thread.

There are two styles of metal mount, some have an X shaped back and some are more of a cup.


Choose Your IoT Platform With Care

30.05.2016 industrial internet , software , anssi rantamäki

When creating an IoT (Internet of Things) system, you have to pay attention to many details. One is choice of the right IoT platform. There are many IoT platforms, and they’re difficult to compare. They are in some ways very similar, but also very different and not directly comparable.

“IoT platform” can mean many different things. It usually refers to an IoT application platform, in other words a software platform that collects data from various sensors and IoT devices. The collected data can then be analyzed and used in various applications. Such platforms are usually in the cloud.

Five main platform groups

IoT platforms can be grouped into, for example, five main categories as illustrated in the figure below.

IoT HW platforms are typically devices, various kinds of microchip hybrid computer platforms with a sensor on top. They are typically platforms for prototypes or very small production series. Examples of HW platforms could be devices like Arduino, Raspberry Pi, Beaglebone, ESP8266, Spark Core.

Another group is the so-called proximal connectivity platforms, which refers to action happening nearby. For example, the thermometers and thermostats of the different rooms of a house can be wirelessly connected to a sensor network. Examples of this group are for instance Qualcomm AllJoyn, Intel IoTivity, Google Brillo and Thread.

The third group is the IoT infrastructure platforms, which are used to transfer data from sensors to the cloud. Examples here would be the likes of PubNub, Mocana, Robomq, RabbitMQ, Mosquitto.

The fourth group are the IoT data platforms, which are used to store, use, and analyze data. Examples of data platforms are Hadoop, Apache Storm, Spark Streaming, AWS Kinesis, Azure Stream Analytics.

Finally there are comprehensive IoT software platforms, in other words background platforms for general use offered by Amazon, IBM, and Microsoft, for example.

This article will focus on this last group, the IoT comprehensive software platforms.

Four building blocks

In principle, an IoT system consists of four building blocks.

  1. A device, in other words a source of data, a physical device, sensor, regulator, etc.
  2. Data transfer systems and protocols
  3. Data management and storage, integration, and analysis
  4. Data presentation and use. This produces added value for the users.

IoT comprehensive software platforms consist of the above building blocks 2 and 3.

No platform as such provides ready-to-use applications, but the advantage of a comprehensive software platform is that it provides a variable selection of different tools for compiling applications. A single comprehensive software platform is usually sufficient for building an IoT system. The software platforms on the market usually provide all necessary services. In addition, a device platform or an existing device is required.  An adaptation of the application has to be implemented on top of the platform.

Some things are better in some platforms than in others. One can also choose different parts from different platforms, but this option should be analyzed carefully to avoid future complications.

In choosing a software platform, you may have to compromise. You may have to choose it depending on the focus of your area of application and depending on from where you can get the best functions. There are no major price differences between platform providers, and they usually use the same criteria. So in practice, the competitiveness of different platforms doesn't depend on pricing. Processor time can be more expensive for one platform than another, but the situation can be the opposite with data storage.

It’s important to choose a platform that provides tools for doing quick tests. It’s best to always make a solution prototype and test whether it works on the platform. Your background and experiences can also influence the platform choice. If you have expertise in using Microsoft tools, Microsoft Azure can be the best choice. If you already use Amazon’s cloud platform, there may be contract-related reasons to use the same for IoT.

An important business aspect is continuity. Many new platforms have appeared in recent years, many of which are good, but there is no guarantee of how long they’ll be available. When starting a new business, it’s best to avoid the risk of a tool provider going out of business by using large and well-known providers like IBM, Amazon, and Microsoft.

Four service models

The different available service model options often confuse IoT users. In principle, you can buy a service in four different ways.

The first option is to do everything yourself by buying a computer and installing everything yourself. That way you control and own everything yourself, the server hardware, operating system, and software.

The second option is use of a virtual server (Internet as a Service, IaaS), where you rent the hardware but control and own everything else.

The third option additionally provides the operating system and application platform, and you’re only responsible for the application. This is called Platform as a Service, PaaS.

The fourth option, Software as a Service (SaaS), also provides all available applications.

The two most important options for IoT are PaaS and SaaS. PaaS pricing is based on resource use, on how much you use processor capacity and the database. If you need to search the database often, you need fast access. This is typically rather expensive. A database for long-term storage, which is searched only seldom, is relatively inexpensive. Optimization of database use is important to ensure the best possible pricing and service.

When designing a system, it’s a good idea to plan how much and what kind of storage space you’ll need. The main benefit of PaaS and SaaS services is paying for actual use. There is no need for prior investment in the system; you only pay for actual platform use. Typical pricing criteria for PaaS services are use of processor capacity, memory, databases, and storage space.

Different kinds of storage space

It’s important to understand that IoT systems need three different kinds of storage space.

  1. A reliable and stable cache memory, used for storing sensor data before transferring it for use in applications, for example.
  2. A fast database for use by the applications.
  3. Long-term data storage.

It makes sense to optimize use of the different storage spaces according to your needs because this has a significant effect on the price of the service. You should plan how long you have to be able to quickly access the data needed by the applications and optimize the data amount you use accordingly. After data has been transferred to long-term storage, it’s not a good idea to retrieve it often. But this is where even terabytes of data can be stored for long periods of time. PaaS and SaaS services can be easily changed and increased, so they’re easy to scale up and down.

Differences between the platforms

IoT software platforms are very similar in terms of their technology and architecture. The differences are more in what they emphasize and in what the service provider considers important. For example, IBM’s platform is largely based on analytics whereas Microsoft’s Azure emphasizes remote services and parallel services and their integration. Amazon’s service is the most traditional cloud service. ThingWorx and Cumulocity services on the other hand have good tools for getting started quickly. Their strengths are in visualization and user interface creation. If your needs are heavy in analytics, IBM is a good choice. If the biggest need is data, it’s better to go to Amazon.

Choosing the platform

Many factors affect the choice of an IoT software platform.

  1. Fast prototyping.
    IoT in practice means new business activity models. It’s necessary to be able to try them out quickly and determine which models work. All the platforms mentioned in this article are good for fast prototyping. The best is perhaps IBM’s Watson because it doesn’t require any outside tools or programming. There is also no limit on the evaluation time (only the data amounts). At the other extreme is Azure, which requires the use of the Visual Studio tools. That’s no problem if these tools are already in use anyhow.
  2. Tools
    Different platforms provide support for different programming languages. If one of these is your organization’s forte, make sure that it’s supported on the platform you’re interested in.
  3. Continuity
    There are hundreds of new businesses in the world creating IoT platforms. Some may be very innovative, but it can be risky to base your business on one of them. It makes sense to use large and well-known providers like IBM, Amazon, and Microsoft. They are the winners in the long run. Small startups die or are bought up by one of these big companies.
  4. Vendor lock-in
    Each platform implements the services in its own way, and these are not compatible with other platforms. Moving services from one platform to another probably works best between platforms based on Cloud Foundry, for example IBM Watson and GE Predix.
  5. Hosting model
    If it is essential for your IoT application that data is stored in specific geographical areas or on otherwise precisely defined servers, you should check the IoT platform’s hosting model and the locations of its data centers. IBM, for example, offers a cloud-in-a-box model with which all IBM’s PaaS services can be put on your own server.

You can of course also combine different services and providers. For example, if your application is closely connected with Microsoft systems and requires storing large amounts of data and doing cognitive analysis of the data, Azure can be seamlessly integrated with existing Microsoft Enterprise applications. Amazon’s AWS offers the powerful big-data service Kinesis, and IBM the unique analytics of Watson.

About the author

Anssi Rantamäki is an Inudstrial Internet professional with more than 15 years of experience in demanding IT development projects.

For more information please contat Tomi Kyllönen at +358 40 848 6116 or

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[quote]Do you want to see the most beautiful thing I ever filmed? This bag was just...dancing with a little kid begging me to play with it. That's the day I realized that there was this entire life behind things.[/quote]

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