Economy – Patriots Forum The Source of Patriotic Articles Sat, 21 Oct 2017 15:07:19 +0000 en-US hourly 1 मनरेगा जैसे एक और दिशाहीन ‘ स्टीमूलस ‘ से किसी का भी भला नहीं होगा : Honestly, does India need a stimulus package? – rediff Sun, 08 Oct 2017 04:25:14 +0000 more »]]> मनरेगा जैसे एक और दिशाहीन ‘ स्टीमूलस  ‘ से किसी का भी भला नहीं होगा : Honestly, does India need a stimulus package? – rediff

डूबती अर्थव्यवस्था से सरकार भी अब पहली बार चिंतित हो गयी है . आखिर झूटी आर्थिक  प्रगति की  काठ की हांडी कब तक चढ़ती ?

परन्तु यदि इस डूबती अर्थव्यवस्था का इलाज़ वही मूर्ख वैद्य करेंगे जिन्होंने इसे डूबोया था तो अर्थव्यवस्था और डूब जायेगी . इस सरकार  की कमजोरी ही बाबू शाही का सम्पूर्ण सरकार पर राज है . वह बाबु शाही ने कभी मनरेगा जैसी मूर्खता पूर्ण स्कीमों  मैं देश को फंसाया था जिससे देश आज भी नहीं उबर पाया. मोदी सरकार मैं भी बाबू शाही  देश की अर्थ व्यवस्था को डुबो कर पल्ला झाड कर बैठ गयी  नीती आयोग के उपाध्यक्ष पंगारिया को बदल कर बाबुशाही ने एक बलि का बकरा तो हलाल कर दिया पर वही बाबुशाही अब एक नया शगूफा लेन की योजना बना रही है . आर्थिक विकास के लिए एक अमरीका जैसे ‘ स्टीमुलस पॅकेज  की बात शुरू हो गयी है . परन्तु अब तक के अनुभव से तो यह ‘ अंधा बांटे रेवड़ी मुड  मुड  अपने को देय ‘ ही होगी . वित्त विभाग के सरकारी बाबु दाल काण्ड की तरह अपने यार दोस्तों मैं पैसा बाँट देंगे . अवरुद्ध औद्योगिक प्रगति जस की तस ही रह जायेगी . आवश्यकता है की यह पैकेज उनकी समस्यायों को सुलझाए जिन्हें सरकार की नीतियों ने प्रताड़ित किया है . इनमें सबसे पहले तो ‘ कन्स्ट्रकशन  सेक्टर ‘ जिसकी सबसे ज्यादा खटिया खडी हुयी है . मूर्ख बाबू ताली बजा रहे हैं की काला धन कम हो जाएगा परन्तु करोड़ों गरीब मजदूरों  के पेट पर जो लात पडी है उसका क्या होगा ? बैंकों को नोट बंदी की जमा राशि पर ३.५ % ब्याज देना होगा . उद्योग अभी क़र्ज़ लेंगे नहीं क्योंकि मांग नहीं बढ़ रही है . सरकार को पुराने तैयार घर खरीदने पर पाँच साल के लिए छः प्रतिशत ब्याज दर घोषित कर देनी चाहिए . इससे बिना बिके घरों से चढ़ते ब्याज से उद्योग को कुछ राहत मिलेगी और सरकार को ब्याज देने से मुक्ती मिलेगी . दूसरा डूबा हुआ सेक्टर निर्यात है . भारतीय  मुद्रा के दर मैं कमी के बावजूद भी निर्यात नहीं बढ़ रहा है . उन अवरुद्ध सेक्टरों को मदद की आवश्यकता है . मध्यम वर्ग पिछले तीन  वर्षों से उपेक्षित है क्योंकी सरकार पर व्यापारिओं का कब्ज़ा है . शिक्षा लोन , मेडिकल लोन इत्यादि को चुकाना मुश्किल हो गया है . उनके आय कर की दर मैं भारी कटौती करना आवश्यक  . किसान को कुछ फायदा नहीं हुआ और खाद्यान्नों की बड़ी कीमत का सारा पैसा बिचौलिए ले गए . खाद्यान्नों के बैंक लोन व् सट्टे पर प्रतिबन्ध वापिस लगा कर गेहूं के समर्थन मूल्य मैं सौ रूपये क्विंटल की वृद्धि करना आवश्यक है . इसी तरह और फसलों पर समुचित वृद्धि कर सट्टे व्  बैंक लोन  को रोक देने से मूल्यों की बढ़ोतरी को रोका जा सकता है .सॉफ्टवेर का निर्यात अब कम होता जाएगा . इसलिए मेडिकल पर्यटन को बढ़ावा देने के लिए सरकार को विदेशी पर्यटकों के प्रिय स्थलों पर बड़े बड़े मल्टी  स्पेशलिटी अस्पतालों के नए निर्माण को को प्रोत्साहन देने की आवश्यकता है . इसलिए शुरू होने के  पाँच साल मैं  ३०% निर्यात के आश्वासन पर कम से कम दस बड़े अस्पतालों के निर्माण के लिए मुफ्त जमीन व्  सस्ते ब्याज की आर्थिक सहायता दी जाये . पुरानी  कंपनियों के अतिरिक्त एच सी एल जैसी बडी कंपनियां इस क्षेत्र मैं बढना चाहती  हैं .भारत को अगले दस वर्षों मैं मेडिकल पर्यटन से सौ बिलियन डॉलर कमाई का लक्ष्य निर्धारित करना चाहिए .इसके लिए भारतीय दूतावासों को सक्रीय करने की भी आवश्यकता है . पुराने उद्योगों मैं जो देश मैं गैस य कोयले की कमी से मारे गए हैं उनको आर्थिक मदद देना आवश्यक है . स्टील इत्यादि के सस्ते चीनी आयात को रोका जाय जिससे भारतीय उद्योग अपनी पूरी क्षमता का उपयोग कर सकें  .नए उद्योगों को सस्ती जमीन उपलब्ध कराई जाय . युवकों द्वारा स्थापित नए उद्यमों को भी तीन साल तक ३.५ % ब्याज पर ऋण दिए जाएँ . मेडिकल , इंजीनियरिंग , एमबीए की पढाई इतनी महंगी हो गयी है की गरीब छात्र उसे नहीं कर पा रहे हैं . उधर उनकी सीटें खाली जा रही हैं . गरीब परन्तु मेधावी छात्रों कोबिना जाती भेदभाव के  ३.५ % ब्याज पर ऋण दिया जाय और पढाई पूरी होने नौकरी मिलने तक ऋण को ब्याज से से मुक्त किया जाय .

मुख्यतः सरकार के पैकेज उनको फायदा करें जो अब तक उपेक्षित थे और जिनके उपेक्षा के  कारण आर्थिक विकास अवरुद्ध है .

बाबुओं पर छोड़ा तो इस पैसे को भी मनरेगा बना  देंगे क्योंकि बाबुओं के लिए सरकारी खर्च ही तो आमदनी है .

रेडिफ का लेख पढ़ें .

अन्यथा सब कुछ लुटा के होश मैं आये तो क्या हुआ .

Honestly, does India need a stimulus package?

Illustration: Dominic Xavier/

I suppose we should be grateful. After months and months in which voices have been raised in concern about a serious and structural slowdown in the Indian economy, the central government has finally accepted that it may, perhaps, have a teensy-weensy problem on its hands.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has met various senior officials, and a revival plan has reportedly been presented to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Better late than never, you might say. Well, that depends on exactly what the government eventually winds up doing.

The details of the plan are still unavailable as of writing this, but there is every reason to believe reports that its main weapon will be increased government spending.

Even if not presented as such, it is likely that increased spending will be the only easily operationalised aspect of any revival plan.

And thus voices from the ruling party to the commentariat to even the State Bank of India have begun to argue that the government should ignore its achievements on fiscal consolidation, and start throwing money at the slowdown.

It is impossible to exaggerate how bad an idea this is. In fact, I am appalled that it is being made at all

First of all, prioritising government action would suggest that no lessons have been learned by the Modi government from its mismanagement of the economy thus far.

Since it took office, the government has focused on the following approach: First, move towards correcting some of the business-cycle problems it had inherited; second, take advantage of tax growth and expenditure savings on account of cheaper oil; third, spend the proceeds on infrastructure without cutting other spending; and fourth, prioritise positive messaging about the economy in order to raise investors’ “animal spirits”.

While this is a coherent economic programme in theory, it was poorly conceived and implemented.

It rested on a fundamental misdiagnosis of the problems and how they could be solved.

For one, it assumed that higher infrastructure spending would solve the slump in private investment; government spending would “crowd in” private investment by making returns look more attractive.

This has clearly not happened.

Private investors are still concerned about overcapacity, weak demand, and the security of their investments in India. And thus, private investment, and growth, continue to struggle.

In addition, those aspects of the programme that were in fact of importance — such as cleaning up the bad loans problem — were not prioritised in effect.

This is where the mismanagement comes in.

The government took years to move on these problems, and thus they continue to hang over the economy’s head like the sword of Damocles.

Ministers have often talked up the decisiveness of this government, but where politically risky decisions were necessary in figuring out who took haircuts as a consequence of boom-era bad choices — consumers, public sector banks, or promoters — they are still to be taken in more than three years, so I am not feeling like giving the government any points for decisiveness.

The government has known since the day it took office that the banking sector was in trouble, yet its action to repair it has been ineffective and poorly managed, and based around talking points leaked to WhatsApp groups instead of institutional change at banks.

And finally, given that the programme depends on an external impetus — the oil price bonanza — it is inherently unstable, unsustainable, and politically risky, as demonstrated by the increasing clamour for petrol taxes to be reduced.

As a consequence of this poor economic management, the economy has now been slowing for six quarters in spite of benign macro-economic conditions, a growing world economy, and increasing government spending.

You have to really bungle to produce 5.7 per cent growth under the conditions this government is currently facing.

So, you may well ask, surely the logical approach to this situation would be to revisit the economic programme decided in 2014 and correct it?

What is not logical is to instead throw out of the window the one genuine accomplishment of this government — its sticking to a fiscal consolidation path that it inherited.

Government spending has been increased in each Union Budget, and that has not helped the economy recover.

So how can further spending be even considered, especially as India’s history with stimulus packages has been poor?

Many of the economy’s current problems can be dated to the pre-2008 boom, but many are also the product of the easy money on offer when the government panicked after the 2008 financial crisis.

The fiscal deficit rose to dangerous levels, reform was postponed, taxes were cut, loans were rolled over, and so on — all justified by the crisis.

At least that was a real, global crisis. Are we going to make the same mistakes to get out of the current, self-inflicted one?

There is no reason to suppose the Modi stimulus will be any more effective or any less dangerous than the Mukherjee stimulus.

In spite of pious and repetitive statements about a culture of honesty, the plain fact is that the fundamental political economy of the country has not changed since 2010; in the absence of institutional reform, the same incentives still exist to make the same mistakes that were made then.

The problem is that the government seeks to address, on this occasion, a structural problem through attempting counter-cyclical policy.

This is more than a business cycle slowdown. A business cycle slowdown is what India had in 2012-13, and we were pulling out of it well before Modi took power.

Our current slowdown is a consequence of structural problems: An increasingly uncompetitive economy, a lack of property rights and security of investment, an incompetent administration at all levels and a poor regulatory environment.

These are the structural issues that need to be addressed in order to restore India to a higher potential growth path.

With every passing day they go unaddressed in a globalised economy, India’s potential growth actually comes down, as it gets less and less competitive.

Address these issues, and demand, and investment appetite and growth will return.

Spend money without fixing these problems, and they will only get worse. But judging by this government’s track record, it will be unable to think beyond what a few bureaucrats recommend.

And bureaucrats tend to like spending money, not losing power.

Until India has a government in which policy is not made by bureaucrats, it will struggle to pull itself out of the Modi slowdown.

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क्या उपेक्षित वेतनभोगी मध्यम वर्ग की सुध ली जायेगी : बिना नयी नौकरी ,बढ़ते टैक्स , बढ़ती खाद्यानों की महगाई की मार से पीड़ित वर्ग Thu, 31 Aug 2017 05:14:01 +0000 more »]]> क्या उपेक्षित वेतनभोगी मध्यम वर्ग की सुध ली जायेगी : बिना नयी नौकरी ,बढ़ते टैक्स , बढ़ती खाद्यानों की महगाई की मार से पीड़ित वर्ग पूर्णतः उपेक्षित

राजीव उपाध्याय rp_RKU-150x150.jpg

सरकार के विकास के दावे व्यापरियों के लिए तो ठीक हैं क्योंकि उनका किसान से खरीद से बेचने का मार्जिन बढ़ रहा है और इसलिए उनका मुनाफ़ा बढ़ रहा है .इसी तरह सस्ते चीनी माल बेच कर वह लाभान्वित हो रहे हैं . उनको टैक्स भी नहीं देना पड़ता क्योंकि उनके चार्टर्ड अकाउंटेंट ले देकर मुनाफा नहीं के बराबर दिखा देते हैं . नोट बंदी भी उनका कुछ नहीं बिगाड़ पायी . उनकी तो उन्नती सरकारी नीतियाँ सुरक्षित कर रहीं हैं . गरीब तो वोट बैंक है आखिर मैं हर सरकार उसके लिए कुछ करेगी . उनकी मजदूरी बढ़ ही जायेगी क्योंकि उसे तो उन्हें खुद ही तय करना है . रिक्शा ,बाल कटाई या प्रेस करने के दाम तो हर साल बढ़ ही जाते हैं . किसान के लिए भी सरकार चिंतित तो है ही .

जो चुप चाप पिस रहा है और सरकार से पूर्णतः उपेक्षित है वह वेतन भोगी मध्यम वर्ग है .उसकी चहुँ ओर से पिसाई हो रही है .पहले तो जीएसटी उसकी कीमतों को बढ़ा रहा है . खाद्यान के दाम सट्टे के चलते बढ़ रहे है . सर्विस टैक्स पहले नहीं था अब हर चीज़ पर है . वह तो आय कर भी देता है और सर्विस टैक्स भी देता है . व्यापारी और किसान आय कर नहीं देते . वकील , डॉक्टर , चार्टर्ड अकाउंटेंट बहुत कम टैक्स देते हैं .उद्योगपति सारा लाभ पुनः निवेश कर टैक्स से बच जाते हैं .

सिर्फ वेतन भोगी माध्यम वर्ग सरकार की हर नयी स्कीम से और टैक्स देने लगता है . इसे स्वच्छता या शिक्षा या कोई और सेस कह लें सब वेतन भोगी को झेलनी पड़ती है . सिनेमा के टिकट के बढ़ते दाम या बिजली या रेल का किराया , स्कूल व् कोलेज की बढ़ती फीस भी उसे ही सबसे अधिक मारती है . उसका अपने मनोरंजन पर खर्च बहुत कम हो गया है .अब पिक्चर या रेस्टोरेंट जाना बहुत कम हो गया है .बूढों को भी घटी ब्याज दरों से आय मैं बहुत कमी हो गयी है .अस्पतालों व् दवाओं की कीमत तो कम नहीं हुयी है .पिछले कुछ वर्षों मैं वेतन भोगी माध्यम वर्ग का जीवन स्तर काफी गिरा है .

पिछले चार सालों से नयी नौकरियों का अकाल पड़ गया है .अब तो पढ़ाई के लिए लिया गया कर्जा भी चुकाना मुश्किल हो रहा है . सॉफ्टवेर की नौकरियां भी कम हो रही हैं . अब तो सब इंजिनियर दस से बीस हज़ार की नौकरियों मैं लग रहे हैं . सरकार पर व्यापारी वर्ग का कब्ज़ा है . वह तो अपने छोटे उद्योग लगाने की बात सोचता है . गरीब का बच्चा तो पढ़ कर नौकरी करता था सो अब मिलती नहीं . इसलिए अब एमबीए और इंजिनियर की पढाई कम हो गयी है . कोचिंग की बड़ी फीस व् लोन चुकाना ही मुश्किल हो गया है . इस वर्ग को अपने उद्योग न तो लगाने हैं न उसके पास पूंजी या अन्य क्षमता है . इनमें शुरू मैं घाटा होता है . गरीब का लड़का तो बैंक का क़र्ज़ चुका ही नहीं पायेगा . इसलिए सरकार के झूठे विकास के दावों से उसका कोई सरोकार नहीं है . नयी गाड़ियां व् घर अधिकांशतः  व्यापारी व् कम टैक्स देने वाले लोग खरीद रहे हैं . स्कूल मास्टर , डाकिया , नर्स , कम्पाउण्डर तो अब किसी के कृपापात्र ही नहीं रहे न कोई उनकी सुध ले रहा है .पहले बच्चे को पढ़ा कर बड़ा आदमी बनाने की उम्मीद तो थी अब वह भी नहीं रही .

पहले सरकारें सब वर्गों का ख्याल रखती थी . मध्यम वर्ग क्योंकि मुखर होता था इसलिए कम वोट होने पर भी उसे उपेक्षित नहीं किया जाता था . अब सिर्फ व्यापारी वर्ग को पुचकारा जा रहा है . उसे सस्ते लोन हों या ज्यादा मुनाफ़ा हो हर तरफ फायदा ही फायदा है .

क्या सरकार वेतन भोगी मध्यम वर्ग का भी कुछ ख्याल करेगी ?

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क्या हम किसान के साथ अन्याय कर रहे हैं :’The farmer is dying and the country is rejoicing’- rediff Wed, 16 Aug 2017 04:04:07 +0000 more »]]>  क्या हम किसान के साथ अन्याय  कर रहे हैं :’The farmer is dying and the country is rejoicing’- rediff

भारत के एक कृषि प्रधान देश होने के बावजूद भी हमारा किसान आत्म ह्त्या करने पर मजबूर है .यह पानी की कमी वाले राज्यों मैं नहीं बल्कि कृषि उत्पादकता मैं सर्व श्रेष्ठ राज्य पंजाब मैं भी हो रहा है .१९७० मैं गेहूं का समर्थन मूल्य ७६  रूपये प्रति क्विंटल था जो २०१५ में १४५०  रूपये है . अर्थात गेहूं का समर्थन मूल्य ४५ वर्षों मैं १९ गुना बढ़ा . इस दौरान सरकारी नौकरी में तनख्वाह  १२० गुना बड़ी . परन्तु इस अवधि में हरित  क्रांति के चलते कृषि की उत्पादकता भी कई गुना बढ़ गयी .फिर भी समस्या किसान कि आय कि है .

इसका समाधान मुश्किल है इसलिये सरकार कतरा रही है .

‘The farmer is dying and the country is rejoicing’- rediff

‘The corporate sector says by 2022 they will create 300 million jobs.’
‘In the last 70 years we didn’t do it, how will we do it in 5 years?’
‘Only agriculture can bail out the economy. Unfortunately, it is not being looked into.’

On Tuesday, April 4, the Uttar Pradesh government decided to waive off crop loans of up to Rs 1 lakh of small and marginal farmers. About 21 million farmers will benefit from this decision.

Again on Tuesday, the Madras high court directed the Tamil Nadu government to expand its farm loan waiver scheme to include farmers who own more than five acres.

Devinder Sharma, below, left, agricultural scientist, food policy analyst, activist and commentator on agricultural issues and food policy tells‘s Syed Firdaus Ashraf that only agriculture can bail out the Indian economy, yet it is being ignored.

Why do farmers in every state want loan waivers?
In Tamil Nadu, farmers want a Rs 40,000 crore loan waiver; in Uttar Pradesh it’s Rs 36,000 crore.
Does it make good economic sense?
SBI Chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya says it does not make good credit sense.

This is going on for the last two to three decades and now it has culminated into a massive economic crisis.

This is because of faulty economics. The crisis is not because of the conditions that prevail on the farm, but outside the farm. That has to be understood first.

The 2016 Economic Survey says the average income of a farming family in 17 states is Rs 20,000 a year.

Arundhati Bhattacharya should have had the courtesy to accept that the crisis is because farmers have not been paid.

They have been deliberately kept impoverished all these years.

What the farmer is therefore saying is, ‘Write off our loans and let us start our lives afresh.’

It’s justified because when Bhattacharya writes off corporate loans she never talks about credit indiscipline.

But if farmers earn just Rs 20,000 a year, how can they get loans? How will they repay their loans?

That’s what we are asking too.

This year credit available to farmers was Rs 10 lakh crore, last year it was Rs 9 lakh crore.

Newspapers rejoice after the Union Budget saying it’s an agrarian budget, a green budget or even a rural budget. But the reality is different.

Out of the Rs 10 lakh crore credit for farmers, 75 per cent goes to industry and only 8 per cent goes to small farmers.

Perfect tool to test the soil conditions of your garden

The government wants to ensure inflation is low.

To keep inflation low, someone has to pay a price and the farmer is doing just that.

The farmer is dying and the country is rejoicing because inflation is under control. The entire effort is to bail out the corporate sector.

You have rightly asked that if farmers earn Rs 20,000 a year, how can they repay loans. But that’s also true for corporates who earn in crores; they also fall in the loan trap.

Jindal Steel & Power, for example, has outstanding loans to the tune of Rs 44,000 crore, which is more than the loan of all Uttar Pradesh farmers.

In Punjab, Bhushan Industries has outstanding loans of about Rs 44,000 crore which they want written off. And on the other hand Punjab farmers want loan waiver of Rs 36,000 crore, which is less than Bhushan Industries.

A Business Standard report says the steel industry has outstanding loans of Rs 150,000 crore and everyone wants to write it off.

But when it comes to farmers, everyone says it is credit indiscipline.

Will waiving off loans be a permanent solution for farmers?

Certainly not. It is a temporary reprieve after two years of drought.

We have done nothing for farmers.

If something similar had happened to industry, the country would have funded a bailout package of several crores.

During the 2008-2009 global economic meltdown, industries were given Rs 3 lakh crore as a bailout package. This bailout package still continues.

Tell me, did anyone say at the time, bailouts need to be stopped?

Why are farmers’ issues not taken seriously?

For the media, agrarian or farmers’ issues are downmarket.

Policy makers are all in the clutches of industry, irrespective of whether their leanings are right, left or centre.

They believe they have to push farmers out of villages into urban areas. They believe this policy leads to economic growth.

That’s the thinking that the World Bank has instilled into us.

If farmers stop farming, where will we get food grain?

In 1996, the World Bank in its World Bank Development Report said by 2015 the number of people that will move out of villages to cities in India will be equal to twice the combined population of the United Kingdom, Germany and France.

The figure was 400 million.

2015 has gone by. Now the World Bank says we have to hasten the process.

The World Bank says that with land reforms, land acquisition and then train farmers for skill development.

These farmers have to become industrial workers, but where are the jobs in this country?

Nitin Gadkari (the Union minister for road transport, highways and shipping) says he is laying 100 kilometres of roads every day and is therefore creating many jobs.

But are these jobs? They are dehati mazdoors (rural labourers).

Nobody questions the logic.

Agriculture is the only sector that can bail out the economy and unfortunately it is not being looked into.

When city dwellers lose their jobs, they don’t expect the government to repay their home loans.
Why should farmers expect their loans to be repaid?

I completely agree with you. My only submission is this: Why is the government or the RBI writing off corporate loans to the tune of Rs 6.8 lakh crore?

These are non-performing assets. Why should the government bail out corporates?

In Madhya Pradesh, farmers are throwing their orange crops on the road, in West Bengal, farmers are throwing their potato harvest on the roads. Why are there no buyers for the produce?

Food mismanagement. It’s not the farmers’ fault.

The government has urged farmers to produce more and they did.

Look at pulses. Is it not the government’s job to ensure that the farmers get the right price?

You cannot leave it to market forces which are exploitative all over the world.

The government has to step in, but they do not want to step in.

It would rather prefer to import food than grow food. This is the kind of economics that is proliferating.

Why are we importing food when we are self sufficient?

In India, we need production by the masses, not production for the masses.

If farmers produce food, only then will they get returns and create demand.

That is how growth will take place.

Instead, we forget about agriculture and the 7th Pay Commission gives handouts to the salaried class, which is 1.3 per cent of the population.

Industry calls it a booster dose. Why? Because demand is generated.

Instead, if you give that money to farmers, it will generate more demand and therefore a higher growth.

There is something terrible going on. I have been saying it is not farmers who have failed, but economists who have failed the farmers.

What happened to the Public Distribution System? Why can’t farmers sell their produce through the PDS instead of dumping it on the roads?

The government announces a minimum support price for 23 crops, but in reality they buy only two crops — wheat and rice.

The rest of the crops are left to market forces.

In India, only 6 per cent farmers get the benefit of Minimum Support Price.

94 per cent farmers are dependent on the market.

If the markets were so efficient, there would not be an agrarian crisis.

We need to build agriculture infrastructure.

We need to frame policy that includes agriculture and makes farmers prosper.

Agriculture employs 52 per cent of the population and only foolish policy planning can afford to ignore it.

Prime Minister Modi has spoken of blending fruit juice with aerated drinks and giving an impetus to canned juice and the food processing industry. But it hasn’t reached farmers.

In the 11th Five Year Plan the total outlay for agriculture was Rs 1 lakh crore.

In the 12th Plan it increased to Rs 1.5 lakh crore.

For an agrarian population of 52 per cent, you invested just this much over 10 years!

The budget for MNREGA (the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) is higher than the budget for agriculture.

Today there are only 7000 regulated mandis (markets) in India, but what we need is around 42,000 mandis, or one mandi for every five kilometres radius.

Once you have these mandis the farmers will have a place to sell their surplus produce.

Farmers have been dumping tomatoes on the roads for the last 20 years. Yet, the ketchup industry imports the bulk of tomato paste because it works out cheaper.

This means the farmers’ produce goes to waste.

When we say infrastructure, we cannot think beyond highways and flyovers.

So why are farmers producing tomatoes?

It is not that there is no demand. It is only suddenly when there is a glut that prices crash.

The country has not learnt how to manage surplus.

This year, India is likely to harvest 98 million tonnes of wheat. Yet we imported five million tonnes of wheat.

Why? Whose interest are you serving?

We do not see any farmers’ revolt in spite of so many suicides?

That’s precisely what policymakers take advantage of.

Farmers are divided on ideology, political leanings. They will never be united.

Farmers serve only two purposes — a vote bank and a land bank.

The Marathas and Jats have taken their protests to the roads, but farmers have not been able to organise themselves.

Agriculture in India depends on a good monsoon. In case of deficit rainfall, isn’t drought inevitable? What’s the solution?

Farmers in Maharashtra say they need better irrigation.

Unless we expand the irrigation network, the impression is farmers will be dependent on the monsoon.

Punjab, on the other hand, has 98 per cent assured irrigation.

In the USA, it is just 11.4 per cent!

Punjab is the highest wheat and rice producing state in the world, yet every day 2-3 farmers commit suicide.

We are made to believe that unless productivity is raised or fields better irrigated, farmers will not get out of the crisis.

The problem actually is not of productivity, but income.

We have kept farmers impoverished all these years.

I did an analysis and found that in 1970 the wheat procurement price was Rs 76 per quintal.

In 2015 it was Rs 1,450 per quintal.

That’s an increase of 19 times over a period of 45 years.

I compared this income with other sections of society.

The salary of government employees jumped between 120 and 150 times in the same period.

I looked at the basic salary and dearness allowance of university professors and the hike was between 150 and 175 times.

For school teachers, salaries rose by around 280-300 times.

For corporate employees it was 300 times (middle management) and for the top rung it was 1,000 times for the same period.

For farmers it was just 19 times.

So other sections of Indian society got a phenomenal rise in income levels compared to farmers.

Yes. At the very minimum, farmer incomes should have gone up 100 times in the same period 1970 to 2015, but that did not happen. If it had, wheat prices would have been Rs 7,600 per quintal. We are paying them just Rs 1,450 per quintal.

In Hindi we call it ‘humne farmers ko chunna lagaya hai (We have been taking farmers for a ride).’

If you give higher price to farmers, more income, then there will be reverse migration of people (from cities to villages).

I have been saying that you can only solve farmers’ problems with a ‘farmer income commission.’

This will provide a minimum take home package for every farmer.

Today, we are depriving farmers of Rs 12 lakh crore every year. I am going to give a full plan of why and how farmers must get a minimum of Rs 18,000 per month.

IMAGE: Tamil Nadu farmers pose half shaved during a protest demanding a drought-relief package from the Narendra Modi government in New Delhi. Photograph: Cathal McNaughton/Reuters

Syed Firdaus Ashraf /

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अफ्रीका में चीन : भारत से कहीं गाडी कहीं छूट न जाये Tue, 08 Aug 2017 05:29:21 +0000 more »]]> चीन अपनी आर्थिक प्रगति से विश्व विजय के सपने देख रहा है .परन्तु हूण  व् मोंगोलों के आक्रमण से लेकर १९६२ तक भारत कभी जीत नहीं पाया है .अब जब भारत का आर्थिक विकास भी हो रहा है हमें चीन की चालों की काट ढूंढना जरूरी है .

China says it built a railway in Africa out of altruism, but it’s more strategic than that

Africa’s past is the mildewed train station in central Addis Ababa, where locomotives sit gutted and rusted tracks vanish in the grass. The line was once the greatest in Africa; built by France in the 1910s, it ran more than 450 miles northeast to neighboring Djibouti, where the desert meets the sea.

Africa’s future is the new station a short drive away, a yellow-and-white edifice with grand pilasters, arched windows and a broad flagstone square. It’s connected to a $4-billion, 470-mile-long rail line, the first electrified cross-border rail system in Africa.

The new rail network was built by China’s state-owned rail and construction firms, which were eager to promote their investment in Africa’s future. Red banners running down the towering facade of the new train station declare, in bold Chinese characters, “Long live Sino-African friendship.”

China has described its railroad adventures in Africa as an exercise in altruism.

Yet for China, investing in Ethiopia — one of the world’s poorest countries — is more strategic than philanthropic. With U.S. engagement on the continent at a low ebb, economically and politically, China sees an opportunity to improve transportation through the Horn of Africa and make itself the dominant economic partner on a continent that is about to see an explosion of new cheap labor, cellphone users and urban consumers.

For several decades, China’s African investments were aimed primarily at creating political allies across the continent. Beijing invested heavily in hearts-and-minds projects such as soccer stadiums and hospitals. But a significant change is underway. China now sees Africa as an important economic opportunity. It has been pouring money into infrastructure across the continent, and this week it opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti.

The Ethiopia-Djibouti rail line was once the greatest in Africa. Built by France in the 1910s, it ran more than 450 miles from landlocked Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, to the neighboring coastal country of Djibouti.

By 2034, Africa is expected to have 1.1 billion workers, the world’s largest working-age population, according to economic forecasts. By 2025, the continent’s consumers will be spending $2 trillion a year.

“My vision is, by 2020, Ethiopia’s economy will be among the world’s mid-level economies,” said Mekonnen Getachew, a project manager at the Ethiopian Railways Corp., which oversees the rail line. “The rail will make every economic activity easier. Our economy will boom.… This railway is making Ethiopia great again!”

The Chinese march through Africa has come as U.S. engagement on the continent has been dialed down to its lowest level in years.

President Trump has barely mentioned Africa in his public statements, and his “America first” rhetoric, some Africa experts say, is pushing the continent further into China’s embrace.

While Chinese companies have looked to make money in Africa and share with Africans some of the jobs, tax revenues, infrastructure and spinoff development that go along with new investment, the U.S. has focused on improving African lives through aid, social programs and conditional loans.

Western companies have often been reluctant to participate in African infrastructure projects for fear of overwhelming maintenance costs. In many cases, they could simply build new projects more cheaply.

“Americans still see Africa as a place where there are a lot of presidents for life, wars and famines,” said Reuben Brigety, dean at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs and a former U.S. ambassador to the African Union. “They don’t understand what’s happening on the continent economically and demographically.”

In Ethiopia, the country’s rail executives said China seems more attuned to Africa’s needs.

“China doesn’t give simple aid,” Getachew said. “They do give loans. You work, and you return back. That’s a good policy. Aid is just making slavery.”

For decades, the China-Africa relationship was almost entirely transactional: China gave African states easy loans, enabling them to build bridges and stadiums; in return, those states gave China access to natural resources, such as oil, timber and nickel, fueling China’s economic boom.

But as China’s foreign policy grows more sophisticated — and more ambitious — that era is ending, and the relationship is growing much deeper, with extraordinary implications for the continent’s future.

Chinese nationals in Africa — once a scattered cohort of officials, mining executives and construction crews — are being joined by tourists, peacekeepers, poachers, soldiers and small-time entrepreneurs. Together, they are generating both riches and new political clout for Beijing and helping establish China as the world’s newest superpower.

For Ethiopia, China’s infrastructure expenditures are an essential element in plans to emerge from a long cycle of drought, poverty, famine and war. The railroad is a start.

Ethiopian officials say the line will eventually grow into a 3,000-mile rail network that stretches across neighboring Sudan, South Sudan, and Kenya — where China recently completed another railway, for $3.8 billion.

The new Ethiopia-Djibouti line’s trains are near-identical copies of the carriages that traversed China before the government, about a decade ago, began swapping them out for high-speed rail. They have the same ramrod-straight seat backs; the same boiling water dispensers in nearly every car, essential for instant noodles and green tea.

Ethiopia relies on Djibouti’s ports for 90% of its foreign trade. But since the old railroad collapsed in 2009 after decades of decline, the landlocked country’s billions of dollars of imports and exports — fuel, coffee, livestock — have had to travel by truck, a three-to-four-day journey along rutted, dusty roads.

The new rail line, which will be fully operational by October, will cut the trip to 12 hours.

“The coaches are very new. It’s electric. It’s very comfortable. You enjoy the scenery along the corridor,” said Yehualaeshet Jemere, a top official with the Ethiopian Railways Corp. “It’s like a dream come true for us.”

Here in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, China is driving an urban renaissance. It has built whole neighborhoods, a $475-million light-railway system and even the African Union headquarters, a $200-million complex that dominates the city’s skyline. In the country’s hinterlands, it has constructed several industrial parks, anticipating a manufacturing boom.

Beijing’s first overseas military base had its official opening on Tuesday near the terminus of the new rail line in Djibouti. The 90-acre complex includes housing for thousands of soldiers and berths for commercial and military vessels.

But Beijing’s reach already stretches well beyond Djibouti and Ethiopia. China surpassed the U.S. as Africa’s largest trading partner in 2009, and the numbers continue to climb. (Foreign direct investment has dropped in recent years, along with declining global resource prices.)

China stands to gain tremendously from its investments. Chinese businesses, hampered by slowing growth at home, are increasingly treating the continent as a major overseas market.

In Beijing, the political will driving such projects extends to the top. Through the “Belt and Road Initiative,” launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013, China is funding $1 trillion of infrastructure and trade projects throughout Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. In December 2015, Xi met with African leaders in Johannesburg, South Africa, and pledged $60 billion for development projects across the continent over the next three years.

“Today’s Africa is a continent of encouraging and dynamic development,” he said in a speech. “Such a momentum of independent development is unstoppable.”

Zhang Huarong, chief executive of Huajian Shoe Co., inspects the production lines. (Noah Fowler / For The Times)

In the Chinese-owned Huajian Shoe Co. Factory in Addis Ababa, more than 6,000 workers build shoes for American brands such Tommy Hilfiger, Guess and Lucky. (Noah Fowler / For The Times)

The end of the shift at the Huajian Shoe Co. Factory. (Noah Fowler / For The Times)

Top, Zhang Huarong, chief executive of Huajian Shoe Co., inspects the production lines. Left, in the Chinese-owned Huajian Shoe Co. Factory in Addis Ababa, more than 6,000 workers build shoes for American brands such Tommy Hilfiger, Guess and Lucky. Right, the end of the shift at the factory. (Noah Fowler / For The Times)

In a Chinese-built industrial park along the new rail line, in a Chinese-run factory, thousands of employees of Huajian Shoe Co. — all of them Ethiopian — work 13-hour days gluing, inspecting and boxing women’s shoes. Above them hang propaganda posters in Chinese, English and Amharic, Ethiopia’s national language, imploring workers to “win honor for the country” and to “absolutely obey.”

Zhang Huarong, the company’s chief executive, wandered through the immaculate rows of workers on an inspection tour, a crowd of subordinates trailing behind him. “Africa is too poor,” he said. “It needs entrepreneurs like me to balance out the global economy, so that more people can live a happy life.”

Zhang was proud of his Ethiopian investments. The new rail will knock shipping prices from $5,000 per container to $3,000, he said. And for the cost of one Chinese worker, Zhang can hire five Ethiopians. He plans to employ 50,000 within eight years.

“Ethiopia is like China was 40 years ago,” he said. “Even though this place is pretty tough, we think within five or 10 years, its economic development will be pretty good.”

Every pair of shoes produced in Huajian’s factories, in China and Ethiopia, is exported to the U.S.; its clients include the labels Tommy Hilfiger, Guess and Lucky.

As the sun set at the factory, about a dozen Ethiopian workers lined up in formation, closing out the workday. An Ethiopian manager waved his arms, as if conducting a choir, and together they sang a Chinese military anthem from the 1950s.

“Unity is strength. Unity is strength,” they sang in Mandarin. “Open fire on the fascists. Bring death to all nondemocratic systems.”

At the Chinese company Huajian Shoe Co.’s factory in Addis Ababa, thousands of employees work long days gluing, inspecting and boxing women’s shoes, all of them bound for the U.S. market.

Adama, a city of 300,000 people 60 miles down the rail line from Addis Ababa, is preparing for a boom — but not everyone considers it progress.

Small blue auto rickshaws jostle for road space with hulking Chinese trucks, and rows of half-built concrete houses stretch up into the plains. At the end of a half-built road is the city’s new train station — another massive edifice, its interior covered in dust.

Since construction began six years ago, the price of land in Adama has increased sevenfold to about $140 per square foot, said Shambel Worku, the station’s manager.

Yet progress is slow, and locals are suffering, highlighting the hidden costs of rapid economic development. In late January, the road was still a mess of pylons and ditches. And the machine-gun-toting security guards overseeing the empty station lacked water, forcing them to walk hours for a drink.

The Chinese-built railway could bring an economic renaissance to Adama, a city of 300,000 people 60 miles down the rail line from Addis Ababa.

Farmers in Lugo Village, an impoverished cluster of slapdash houses a few hundred yards from the station, said the rail project has made life unbearable, in part because locals can’t cross the rail construction zone, but must go around it.

It “divides the village into two,” said Tashoma Kafani, 72. Before construction began, he said, he could walk to his barley and maize fields in about two hours; now, he needs about five.

“We have repeatedly contacted the local authorities,” he said. “We have been expressing our problems and voicing our concern about the absence of a bridge. But so far, they haven’t been responsive.”

As for the Chinese planners who designed the project, Kafani can’t even imagine how to communicate with them.

Central Djibouti City, Djibouti.
Central Djibouti City, Djibouti. (Noah Fowler / For The Times)

The rail line crosses into Djibouti about 360 miles to the northeast. It ends in the capital, Djibouti City, where, on the western edge of its main port, China is building the new military base — an unprecedented projection of power for China’s rapidly expanding army.

Djibouti is a former French colony of 850,000 people, and its capital — a patchy grid of dusty streets and sun-bleached Moorish buildings — feels like an island, hemmed in by endless miles of massive, walled-off foreign compounds.

China’s base is about eight miles from Camp Lemonnier, America’s only full-scale base in Africa. France, Germany, Italy and Japan also maintain bases in Djibouti, both for its political stability — its president, Ismail Omar Guelleh, has ruled the country since 1999 — and its proximity to terrorism hot spots in Africa and the Middle East.

Chinese officials call the base a “supply center,” intended primarily to support China’s anti-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden — a crucial shipping route — and protect its commercial interests.

“People are very sensitive about [the Djibouti base], but I don’t think that’s fair,” said Xu Guangyu, a retired People’s Liberation Army major general in Beijing. The U.S. maintains hundreds of overseas bases, he said. “We in China think it’s silly, to have so many overseas military bases. We have built only one supply center. So why all the speculation about this news?”

Peter Dutton, professor of strategic studies at the Naval War College in Rhode Island, said China’s new base says more about the country’s economic heft than its military ambitions. “What we’re talking about is fundamentally geoeconomics, rather than geo-strategy,” he said.

On the other hand, China is “walking away from some of the premises that have undergirded its foreign policy for 60 years,” he said. “They’re beginning to act like a great power which takes a role in international politics and security. And that’s a fairly significant change for China.”

China has given Djibouti’s government billions of dollars in loans and investment, helping fund new ports, two airports and a pipeline for drinking water from Ethiopia. It’s also planning a series of power plants and a tax-free manufacturing zone. Nearly a quarter of Djibouti’s population lives beneath the poverty line — its unemployment rate in 2014 was 60% — and locals say the country desperately needs the help.

Djibouti inaugurated the rail line in January in a mass celebration featuring Djiboutian celebrities and African heads of state. By early February, the line hadn’t yet opened, and the festive atmosphere had died down, but locals were feeling hopeful nonetheless.

At the rail line’s penultimate station — another empty monolith — Degan Mohamed, 31, stood alone but for five security guards, sweeping up dust. She was hired as a janitor in October, her first-ever job.

“I had no alternative,” she said. “I am earning money, so I am quite happy.”

This is the first in a series of reports on a massive program of Chinese investment that is reshaping Africa. Times staff writer Jonathan Kaiman and visual journalist Noah Fowler traveled to Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya and Ghana with support from the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. More online, including 360-degree videos, at

For more news from Asia, follow @JRKaiman on Twitter

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भारतीय उद्योगों के बुरे दिन कब समाप्त होंगे : July was particularly bad for manufacturing sector – rediff Tue, 01 Aug 2017 09:24:58 +0000 more »]]> भारतीय उद्योगों के बुरे दिन कब समाप्त होंगे ? : July was particularly bad for manufacturing sector – रीडिफ़

अब तो देश के उद्योगों ने आशा भी छोड़ दी है की कभी उनके भी अच्छे दिन आयेंगे . सरकार यदि उन्हें अकेला भी छोड़ देती तो शायद वह उबर लेते पर अब तो हर खबर औद्योगिक विकास के लिए बुरी खबर ही होती है . पहले उद्योग पतियों की धर पकड़ हो रही थी क्योंकि वह घोटालों के पोषक थे . फिर मंहगाई कम करनी थी इस लिए  बैंकों के कर्जों पर रोक थी . फिर टैक्स वालों का आतंक आया और बजाय नए टैक्स वालों के पुरानों से ही टैक्स वसूली बढ़ा दी . उसके बाद नोट बंदी  आयी और अब जीएसटी .पता नहीं किसका भला हो रहा है . उद्योगों के बिना देश कैसे ताकतवर बन सकता है . क्या हम व्यापारी देश बन कर रह जायेंगे जो चीन समेत विदेशियों का माल बेचेंगे और देश को सिर्फ एजेंसियां  मिलेंगी . क्यों कोई औद्योगिक विकास के अवरुद्ध होने पर चिंतित नहीं है . आर्थिक विकास के आंकड़े झूठे हैं . आज की विकास दर मनमोहन सरकार के अंतिम वर्ष की विकास दर के बराबर ही है . न तो नयी नौकरियां हैं न ही नए उद्योग लग रहे हैं .नौ जवान जो कुछ मिले ले लो के मूड मैं आ गए हैं . इंजीनियरिंग और एम् बी ए की डिग्रियां बेकार हो गयी हैं . सरकार मुद्रा स्कीम की अफीम मैं पडी है . बांग्लादेश अपनी सफल नीतियों से भारत से दुगना कपड़ों का निर्यात कर रहा है . हम अब बांग्लादेश से भी गए गुज़रे हो गए क्या ?

खाने की चीज़ें तो मंहगी हो रही हैं जो माल बिक नहीं रहा वह ही सस्ता हो रहा है जैसे घर . जीएसटी तो नए उद्योगों को कुछ रहत देगा पुरानों का तो कोई माई बाप ही नहीं है . कोई उद्योगपति पूंजी निवेश नहीं कर रहा . सब डरे हैं इसलिए चुप हैं .सरकार की आर्थिक नीतियाँ देश के उद्योगों के लिए घातक हैं पर अब कौन चिंतित है जिसे जा कर हाले दिल सुनाएँ . चुनाव जीतना ही उद्देश्य था सो पूरा हो रहा है . पर अब तो राष्ट्रपति चुनाव भी जीत लिया , कांग्रेस को भी मृतप्राय कर दिया . उत्तर प्रदेश व् बिहार को सुरक्षित कर अगला चुनाव भी जीत सा ही लिया . सब कुछ तो मिल गया अब क्यों  मध्यम वर्ग व् उद्योगों के विकास पर ध्यान नहीं दे रहे ?

आम जनता खुश है की देश के घोटालों की अब रोज़ खबरें नहीं सुनने मैं आतीं .मोदी जी की विदेश निति व् इमानदारी बाकि सब कमियों और असफलताओं को छुपा रही है .पर सड़क व् बिजली को छोड़ कर बाकि सब विभागों मैं सन्नाटा है और कोई आशातीत उल्लेखनीय प्रगति नहीं हो रही . पर वह क्यों आर्थिक विकास पर ध्यान नहीं दे रहे व् क्यों वह झूठे आंकड़ों के मकडजाल मैं खुद भी  फंस गए हैं यह समझ नहीं आ रहा ?

सरकार मैं आर्थिक विभाग की डोर किसी समर्थ व् ज्ञानी अर्थ शास्त्री को देने की आवश्यकता जैसे मुशर्रफ ने शौकत अज़ीज़ को वित्त विभाग दे दिया था . बाबुओं के राज ने चार  साल मैं हमारे देश के उद्योगों को डुबो दिया है और चीन हम से लगातार आगे बढ़ रहा है .

July was particularly bad for manufacturing sector – rediff

August 01, 2017 12:04 IST

Manufacturing sector in India contracted in July following the GST launch as new orders and output dropped for the first time since the downturn in December last year post demonetisation, a survey said on Tuesday.

This contraction is going to sharpen calls for a lowering of interest rate by the RBI at its policy meet, starting Tuesday.

The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 47.9 in July, down from 50.9 in June, its lowest mark since February 2009, and highlighted the first deterioration in business conditions in 2017 so far.

A figure above 50 denotes expansion while any reading below this level means contraction.

“Manufacturing growth in India came to a halt in July with the PMI down to its lowest mark in almost eight-and-a-half years amid widespread reports that the sector has been adversely affected by the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST),” said Pollyanna De Lima, principal economist at IHS Markit and author of the report.

The GST launch, the survey noted, affected demand. The reductions in output, new orders and purchasing activity were all the steepest since early 2009.

“The weakening trend for demand, relatively muted cost inflationary pressures and discounted factory gate charges provide powerful tools for monetary policy easing, which has the potential to revive economic growth,” Lima said.

In the monetary policy review on June 7, the RBI left key rates unchanged, with Governor Urjit Patel noting that the central bank wanted to be more sure that inflation will stay subdued.

Going forward, Lima said, upcoming PMI releases will show whether underlying conditions remain on the downside or if July’s contraction was a temporary blip.

Panelists said lack of clarity regarding tax rates caused confusion among suppliers and manufacturers themselves.

The 12-month outlook for output remained positive in July, with companies expecting more clarity about GST to support growth.

However, foreign demand for India-manufactured goods improved in July as new export orders continued to rise. That said, the rate of expansion softened from June’s eight-month high, the survey stated.

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‘E-cars pollute more than BS4 vehicles: बिजली की कारें ज्यादा प्रदूषण करती हैं Tue, 01 Aug 2017 03:52:11 +0000 more »]]> ‘E-cars pollute more than BS4 vehicles: बिजली की कारें ज्यादा प्रदूषण करती हैं

भारत मैं मेर्सेदीज के अध्यक्ष के अनुसार बिजली की कारें ज्यादा प्रदुषण फैलातीं हैं . इनके लिए जो बिजली कोयले व् तेल/ गैस से बनती है क्योंकि  भारत मैं ६५ % बिजली ताप ऊर्जा घरों मैं पैदा होती है . इनमें बी एस – ४ गाड़ियों की तरह प्रदूषण कम करने वाले फ़िल्टर नहीं होते . उनके अनुसार्ज्यों ज्यों बिजली कि कारें बढेंगी बिजली के दाम भी बढ़ेंगे .परन्तु बिजलीघर दूर दराज के इलाकों मैं होते हैं और कारें शहरों मैं . इसलिए बिजली की कारें शहरों  को तो खराब नहीं करेंगी परन्तु पूरे पर्यावरण को अवश्य नुक्सान पहुंचाएंगी .

‘E-cars pollute more than BS4 vehicles’

The Mercedes India head said that nearly 65% of electricity in the country is produced using sources such as gas, oil, and coal. “… those power plants do not have any cleansing filters or whatever.

'E-cars pollute more than BS4 vehicles'
Roland Folger, the head of Mercedes Benz in India, has raised doubts over the government’s intention to entirely switch over to electric vehicles by 2030, saying that the cumulative pollution due to electric cars is higher than BS4 vehicles.

Folger said that a large por tion of the electricity used to power electric cars is produced using fossil fuels, which pollute the environment to an even higher degree.

“So far, no one has been able to dispute the fact that electric vehicles would be dirtier than a Bharat Stage 4 vehicle,“ Folger told TOI as he questioned the government’s target of having an entire fleet run on electricity by 2030.

“How can it make sense? I think there will be an equal distribution of around 30% for petrol, diesel and electric. That would make a lot of sense.“

The Mercedes India head said that nearly 65% of electricity in the country is produced using sources such as gas, oil, and coal. “… those power plants do not have any cleansing filters or whatever. They blow everything up in the air, and that’s why they can produce electric power for very cheap.“

Also, the low electricity prices may not hold on for long, especially with increased usage by vehicles owners. On the other hand, the price of diesel and other fuels will go down with less usage across the world, making them more affordable and desirable.

Folger also said that it will be expensive for the Indian economy to make investments into cleanerrenewable power sources or charging stations at the pace at which the demand for power will come.

Also Read: GST impact: Auto sales hit a speed breaker in July

“The investments into a nuclear power plant, or into greener technologies like wind, hydro and solar, can only be re covered by charging more for the electricity… electricity price could easily become more expensive than the equivalent in diesel. So, what are people going to buy?”

He said developed economies, including countries such as Germany , have not been able to afford the transition.“It doesn’t happen in Europe, and now Europe has tonnes of more money for these kind of issues, but it still doesn’t work… India is still a country that does not have these kinds of budgets, even post-GST.“

Pointing to large amount of CO2 emissions during the manufacture of batteries, Folger said, “… the production of the battery leads to heavy CO2 emissions … that it takes nearly 7-8 years until they can lay out their benefits.“ He said that safe disposal of batteries will be another critical issue as the government pushes for electric vehicles.

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क्या भारत की बढ़ती हुयी कमजोरी चीन की हिम्मत बढ़ा रही है : Sikkim standoff: Why China is challenging India now: HT Fri, 21 Jul 2017 07:02:07 +0000 more »]]> हिंदुस्तान टाइम्स का नीचे उद्धृत लेख कटु , विरोधी व् विचारोत्तेजक अवश्य है परन्तु अपनी तरज के देश प्रेम पर आधारित है . इसके कटु विचार लेखक के अपने विचार हैं . सरकार का सुषमा स्वराज द्वारा लोक सभा मैं दिया बयान स्थिति को स्पष्ट करता है . पहली बार भारत ने चीन से बिना डरे सिलिगुरी कॉरिडोर को बचाने के लिए सिक्किम के दोकलम इलाके मैं अपने सैनिक भेज दिए . पहले भी भारत और चीन यहाँ टकरा चुके हैं .सरकार सजग थी और इसलिए चीनी कुचक्र सफल नहीं हुआ .

सरकार पर मुसलिम विरोध का आरोप लगाना द्वेषपूर्ण है . बल्कि हिन्दू सरकार पर मुसलिम तुष्टिकरण व्  अयोध्या पर चुप्पी रखने का आरोप लगा रहे हैं . गौ रक्षा की ख़बरें भी बढ़ा चढ़ा कर प्रचारित की जा रहीं हैं .

परन्तु यह भी सच है की पिछले आंकड़ों मैं भारत का औद्योगिक विकास दर अब तक की सबसे निचले स्तर यानि १.७५ % पर पहुँच गयी . देश का निर्यात मात्र २७५ बिलियन डॉलर है जो कभी लगभग 310 बिलियन डॉलर तक पहुँच चुका था .प्रधान मंत्रि ने १० करोड़ नयी नौकरियां सर्जन करने का वादा किया था परन्तु  नयी नौकरियां गायब हैं . . सरकार को घटती औद्योगिक विकास दर की चिंता नहीं है .सरकार की नीतियाँ चुनाव के लिए लोक लुभावन अवश्य हैं परन्तु औद्योगिक प्रगति के लिए हानिकारक हैं और इसका परिणाम घटी औद्योगिक विकास दर से स्पष्ट है . भारतीय पूंजी निवेश बंद है और मांग बढ़ नहीं रही है . बेकार के विकास के आंकड़ों से देश को भ्रमित किया जा रहा है .

रक्षा मैं भी हम आज बहुत कमजोर हालत मैं हैं .१९६५ के युद्ध मैं हमारे पास ४२- ४५  स्क्वाड्रन हवाई जहाज थे आज लगभग ३५ स्क्वाड्रन ही शेष रह गए हैं . १९६५ मैं हम पाकिस्तान से २.५ गुना ज्यादा ताकतवर थे आज १.५ गुना ही हैं . चीन  का रक्षा बजट हम से तीन गुना ज्यादा है .उसकी अत्यधिक आर्थिक प्रगति उसे भारत को धमकाने का साहस दे रही है और हम अपनी गिरती अर्थ व्यवस्था के चलते उसे पुचकार कर रखने को मजबूर हैं . मुंबई के समय तो हमारे पास टैंकों  के गोले भी नहीं थे ! हालाँकि इस दुर्व्यवस्था के लिए मुख्यता कांग्रेस सरकार जिम्मेवार है परन्तु अपनी अर्थव्यवस्था को सुधारना और रक्षा को शीघ्रता से मजबूत करना तो सरकार का दायित्व है .

सरकार छोटी छोटी चुनावी लाभ की चीज़ों मैं व्यस्त है और बड़ी व् दूरगामी सोच का अभाव है . शौचालय और तीन तलाक पर लगे रहने से हम चीन का मुकाबला कैसे करेंगे ? सफल विदेशनीति के लिए सफल अर्थ व्यवस्था आवश्यक है . चन्द्रगुप्त की सफलता के लिए चाणक्य आवश्यक हैं .परन्तु आर्थिक चाणक्य  तो देश के पटल से एक दम नदारद हैं और ‘ थोथा चना बाजे घना ‘ कहावत चरितार्थ हो रही है. अन्यथा यह जान लें की बिना चुनाव हारे भी देश त्वरित औद्योगिक विकास संभव है . इसके लिए कोई बेईमानी रास्ता नहीं रोक रही है बल्कि उचित बुद्धिमान नीतियों की आवश्यकता है .

हमारे तो अवतार भी बौने हो गए हैं . इसलिए चीन हम से बढ़त लेता जा रहा है .

निम्न लिखित लेख अक्षरक्ष सच नहीं है परन्तु उसके बहुत से मुद्दे विचारणीय अवश्य हैं .

Sikkim standoff: Why China is challenging India now

Not only is India militarily not in a position to challenge China now, the direction the BJP is taking the country undermines India’s capabilities as a power and leaves it in no position to deter China’s aggression for years to come.

opinion Updated: Jul 20, 2017 18:51 IST

Sushil Aaron
Sushil Aaron
Hindustan Times
India and China have been engaged in a military standoff since early June in the Sikkim sector over the construction of a road by the Chinese army in disputed territory, which is also claimed by Bhutan.

The India-China military standoff near Sikkim continues. The rhetoric from both sides is very revealing of their states of mind. India is adopting a conciliatory tone and China an uncompromising one. India will be “patient and peaceful” in dealing with its neighbours says the Narendra Modi government, commentators emphasise Delhi’s moderation and maturity. China insists that withdrawal of Indian troops from Doklam is a precondition for dialogue. Chinese experts are not mincing words. Victor Gao, a former diplomat and once an interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, has said that any other country in China’s situation of seeing foreign (Indian) soldiers on its territory would send troops to drive them out. He says the longer India keeps troops in Doklam the more likely a military confrontation is.

The reaction in Indian media to the standoff with China is markedly different from what tensions with Pakistan usually provoke. Television channels are not dishing out angry hashtags about Beijing as they usually do about Islamabad’s misdemeanours. The Indian establishment clearly wants to avoid a confrontation. In Delhi’s muted reaction and Beijing’s belligerence there is perhaps a tacit acknowledgment in both capitals that the reason China is being aggressive is because India now is the weakest it has been for years.

China wants to symbolically establish dominance in Asia and it has chosen a moment when the contours of India’s path to decline are fairly well-established, three years into Modi’s rule. This is the lesson that Delhi should take away from this standoff, that not only is India militarily not in a position to challenge China now (short of a nuclear exchange), the direction that the BJP is taking the country undermines India’s capabilities as a power and leaves it in no position to resist China’s belligerence in the years to come. This is the time to starkly assess India’s situation, let go of the positive spin the BJP government puts out, and see India how its adversaries would.

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This may be a counterintuitive argument to make because India certainly has some impressive attributes: a large youthful population, a formidable military machine with nuclear weapons, a sizeable middle class and elite to keep foreign companies interested for years and, like any happening power, it hosts several business and think-tank conferences. China is evidently not daunted by this because some indicators of India’s power make for grim reading.

India’s vulnerabilities are manifest in four areas. The first is in the economy, where India has recently seen a series of self-inflicted wounds. India has had a weak investment climate for years owing to regulatory bottlenecks and because its banks are saddled with bad loans. Demonetisation was needlessly introduced in an already difficult situation and it brought cities to a standstill for weeks on end and compounded an agrarian distress by simply short-circuiting billions of transactions in rural India and disrupting supply chains. Growth slowed to 6.1% in the last quarter, one economist believes it may have permanently damaged the country’s informal sector. After demonetisation came changed rules for cattle slaughter which essentially constitute a form of trade war against Muslim entrepreneurs, Dalits and the meat export industry at large. The subsequent introduction of GST has bred widespread confusion; one businessman simply warns that “small traders will die”.

Alongside the effects of recent decision-making India has a jobs crisis, an education crisis and a skills crisis. PM Modi promised 100 million manufacturing jobs by 2022; around 135,000 materialised in eight sectors in 2015–far shorter of the 12 million that reportedly enter the workforce each year. The government has simply abandoned the goal of training 500 million Indians as part of its Skill India plans. The education sector looks almost irredeemable. A committee appointed by the ministry of human resource development has conceded that “large segments of the education sector…face a serious crisis of credibility in terms of the quality of education which they provide, as well as the worth of the degrees which they confer on students.” There are simply too many bad teachers in government schools, many of whom get their jobs through patronage or corruption. Students are not failed in schools and colleges for political reasons–since parents would be angry if governments provided their children bad education to begin with and then failed them. India thus has millions of youth with college degrees often lacking foundational skills let alone employable ones.

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If challenges in the economy, education and skills weren’t enough there is now an active attack on India’s social cohesion, the one thing that held the country together despite all its problems. BJP rule has seen a spike in hate speech directed at Muslims that has led to their targeting and lynching. The Indian Muslim is being constantly represented as a hate figure with a view to snap the possibility of an associational life between Hindus and Muslims. All this corrodes social life and undermines economic productivity – a divided and fear-ridden country is hardly in a position to pool its energies and talents to tackle present and future challenges.

Several other fissures have come to the surface since 2014. In addition to intensifying Hindu-Muslim strife, there is the North-South divide which we are increasingly seeing because of the NDA’s attempts to impose the Hindi language. There is continuing conflict in Kashmir and great restiveness among different social groups elsewhere: Patels and Dalits in Gujarat, Rajputs in Rajasthan, and farmers in various states, including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.

Not only is society beyond polarised by identity politics, the Modi government is also instinctively anti-intellectual and waging a war against knowledge, particularly targeting the liberal arts and social sciences. There is not a single variety of independent intellectual endeavour that is potentially not under threat in India now either by regulation, censorship or physical intimidation – be it a play, film, comedy sketches, documentaries, political discussions in universities or academic publications.

This is a disturbing trend with real implications because the Modi government is letting its antipathy toward liberal intellectuals undermine the transmission of social science knowledge in India – which is indispensable for a society to understand itself and the world. The problem here is two-fold. Progressive intellectuals dominate the social science scene in India, perhaps not in number but in the standing they have in their disciplines. On the contrary, there is no credible right-wing intellectual ecosystem in India–in that one can scarcely find historians or sociologists sympathetic to the BJP who are capable of being published by university presses, the gold standard of academic publishing. Rather than treat progressive intellectuals as a national resource, the BJP government is hell bent on marginalising them, thereby threatening to snuff out forms of knowledge that have developed with some difficulty over the decades. If India is struggling with its quality of education to begin with, it makes little sense to undercut whatever little intellectual capital it has. The Modi government may well note that in the US a few years ago around 58-66 percent of social science professors identified themselves as liberals, only 5-8 percent as conservative. Liberal intellectuals are often critical of America and yet its governments do not interfere in academic life as universities advance knowledge and ultimately America’s cultural power.

The real source of India’s weakness at the moment is that the Modi government is concentrating its energies on achieving political and ideological dominance, rather than addressing the country’s glaring deficits. Politics of polarisation has taken precedence over governmental efforts to facilitate cooperation among citizens that can yield productive outcomes. All regimes in big powers aim to increase power, but they strive for excellence as well (in the hope of compensating for weaknesses). In India we are, for most part, seeing the former without much evidence of support for the latter. The Chinese Communist Party is, on the contrary, unflinching about exercising political control but is pushing the country towards new frontiers. It wants to introduce 100,000 industrial robots every year and plans on having 150 robots in operation for every 10,000 employees by 2020. It is making major investments in artificial intelligence; this year an international conference of AI researchers in the US had to be rescheduled because Chinese delegates could not attend as it clashed with the Chinese New Year. China takes social science seriously too and is making strenuous efforts to get Western academics to teach and undertake research projects in China, through initiatives such as the Thousand Talent and Thousand Foreign Experts programmes.

India, by contrast, is grappling with basic issues of social order, the rule of law – and constrictions on the life of the mind. The military standoff with China is an important opportunity to take a hard look at its own realities and see how they stack up against the priorities of other countries. If the Modi government does not change course now, the gap between India and China will increase in the future and give Beijing more reason to continue bullying India.

(Views expressed are personal. The writer tweets as @SushilAaron)

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जनता की तकलीफों पर अधिक ध्यान देने की आवश्यकता है : नोट्बंदी व् जीएसटी का बुरे ढंग से लागू करना Thu, 13 Jul 2017 08:36:10 +0000 more »]]> जनता की तकलीफों पर अधिक ध्यान देने की आवश्यकता है : नोट्बंदी व् जीएसटी का बुरे ढंग से लागू करनाrp_RKU-150x150.jpg
राजीव उपाध्याय

सरकार ने बिना पूरी तैयारी के जीएसटी तो लगो कर दिया पर व्यापारी पुनः लाइनों मैं इधर उधर हाथ पैर मार रहा है .अभी कुछ छूट दे दी है जिसमें वह अपनी

तकलीफों को दूर करा सकता है . परन्तु इससे भारत की कार्य प्रणाली पर बहुत बड़ा प्रश्न चिन्ह लग गया है . सरकार को जनता की तकलीफों की कोई परवाह ही नहीं है .नोट बंदी के समय गाँवों मैं महीने भर अफ्राह तफरी रही .बैंकों पर लाठी चार्ज हुआ पत्थर फिंके . बैंकों का भरष्टाचार बढ़ा .जनता लाइनों मैं घंटों खडी रही . परन्तु वह सब  तो एक बार सह लिया क्योंकि जनता को लगा की ब्लैक मनी से लड़ना देश की आवश्यकता है .परन्तु यह बिलकुल साफ़ था की सरकार की प्लानिंग बहुत खराब थी . बैंकों से पूछा ही नहीं गया . १२० करोड़ लोग लाइनों मैं आयेंगे कम से कम  पाँच लाख काउंटर तो चाहिए ही थे .बैंकों के एटीम को बदलने का काम पहले से हो सकता था .उन पर रोज नए नोट कैसे पहुंचाएंगे इसकी प्लानिंग पहले से ही होनी चाहिए थी . रेलवे की बुकिंग को पुराने नोट लेने दिया होता तो काउंटर और बढ़ जाते .परन्तु सरकार की दलील की इससे बात लीक हो जाती मैं भी दम था .इसलिए जनता चुप चाप तकलीफ सह गयी .

परन्तु बिना तैयारी के जीएसटी को लागू करने की क्या जल्दी थी ? कम से कम सॉफ्टवेर पूरा टेस्ट कर तीन  महीने का समय तो दिया होता जिससे ९० प्रतिशत व्यापारी ठीक से जीएसटी लागू कर लेते . बाकि को ही भागना पड़ता . पर नहीं सरकार को तो जनता की तकलीफों की चिंता ही  नहीं है . बाबुशाही और चुनी सरकार मैं यही तो अंतर होता है . चुनी सरकार यदि बाबुओं को अपने ऊपर हावी होने देगी तो यही होगा . कभी किसान लाठी खायेंगे और बैंकों का राज होगा या अब जीएसटी पर फिर वही गफलत होगी .ऐसे ही ट्रकों के नाके चालू हें , कुछ नहीं बदला .पहले सेल टैक्स के डॉक्यूमेंट मांगते थे अब जीएसटी के मांगते हें . ट्रक लाइनों मैं पहले की तरह ही लगे रहते हैं .  प्रधान मंत्रि ने कहा की छतीस टैक्सो के फॉर्म भरते थे . अब महीने मैं तीन फॉर्म भरने पड़ेंगे और साल के अंत मैं एक . कुल सैतीस फॉर्म तो फिर हो गए . छोटे व्यापारीओं की आफत ज्यादा है . उनका दिया जीएसटी लिंक हुआ की नहीं भगवान् भरोसे है . बड़े व्यापारी उनसे माल खरीदने मैं डरेंगे . इंदिरागांधी युग के इंस्पेक्टर राज की चरम वापिसी है .भला हो की एक हलवाई समोसा पाँच प्रतिशत , जलेबी १८% और राजभोग २८% की जीएसटी दर से नहीं बेच रहा . राजभोग तो राजाओं की मिठाई है ?

कुल मिला के नोत्बंदी की तरह जीएसटी का भी एक अच्छी विचार का बहुत भोंडा कार्यान्वन हुआ है .सबसे बड़ी बात यह है की सरकार के ऊपर बाबु हावी हैं और माई बाप के आदी बाबु  निरंकुश है .सिर्फ हाँ मैं हाँ मिला कर जनता को पीस रहे हैं .सरकार की कार्यशैली मैं बदलाव कर जनता की तकलीफों के प्रति सजगता लाने  की आवश्यकता है .

नीचे दिए लेख पर ध्यान देना आवश्यक है  .

‘Nobody is fully prepared for GST’

‘The near term will be challenging, as most will struggle to adapt to the new regime.’
Illustration: Dominic Xavier/

Illustration: Dominic Xavier

Future Group CEO Kishore Biyani believes the goods and services tax has multiple implications for his sector.

While the near-term will be challenging, the long term will augur well for both the retail and consumer markets as ease of doing business improves, he tells Viveat Susan Pinto.

How prepared is your group for GST?

Nobody is fully prepared for the GST.

Everybody is learning along the way and so are we.

I believe there are multiple implications due to this tax reform.

In the long run, however, there are benefits; the biggest being the ease of doing business.

For retailers, benefits accrue at the front as well as back-end.

At the front-end, they will be able to set up more stores because execution challenges will reduce.

At the back-end, the logistics and warehousing issues will ease.

It will become more efficient because of the concept of a unified market.

Top retailers recently met to discuss some of the challenges the sector would face. What were these?

The discussion was about pricing and protection of margins.

Will margins get squeezed in the event if there are price hikes?

How are FMCGs dealing with this issue and what will be the impact on consumers and retailers due to this?

What is the extent of price hikes?

There was a need to come together and put our minds to these issues.

There are also some other teething problems that require attention such as including GST as a component in the product price, as opposed to raising a separate bill for it.

There are also discrepancies that could creep in due to the variable GST structure on products.

For instance, packaged commodities will be charged at five per cent, while those sold loosely will be exempt from GST.

How do we deal with this dynamic?

Future Group is also a manufacturer and distributor of consumer products through Future Consumer.
Do you propose to raise prices of your products once GST kicks in?

No, we do not.

Our plan is to reduce product prices by 2 to 22 per cent across categories.

This is because GST rates will be lower. This will be beneficial to consumers.

Will that give you greater scope to compete with e-tailers, whose biggest advantage is the lower price that they bring to the table?

I can only speak for myself. We will bring down prices across products, so I see this having a positive impact on business.

What is happening to that industry (e-tailing) is visible to all.

But I do think that everybody will do what is right for their respective businesses.

What are the investments you’ve made in your business to be GST-ready?

We are ready to file invoices based on the new structure on July 1. We had set up teams internally to help us make that shift.

‘GST is likely to disrupt a lot of people’s lives’ – REDIFF

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July 13, 2017 08:29 IST

‘I expect a global financial problem in the latter half of the current financial year or in 2018, especially in the US.’

‘The next time we have an economic slowdown, it’s going to be very, very bad and will impact everyone.’

As the global equity markets continue on their journey north, Jim Rogers, bottom, left, chairman of Rogers Holdings, tells Puneet Wadhwa that he expects a correction, going ahead.

His decision not to invest now is not India-specific, but has to do with the problems relating to how the major global economies are shaping up.

India has implemented the biggest tax reform in history – the Goods and Services Tax (GST). What are your thoughts on the development?

With the implementation of the GST, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done what he said earlier.

If the GST can overhaul the tax system in India, it will be wonderful. This is the best thing to have happened to India by a politician since its independence, ie, in the past 70 years.

What do you expect from the government in the remaining part of its tenure? Do you see populist measures taking centre stage with the 2019 general elections in mind?

Well, Modi has done many populist things in the past.

I think the last Union Budget had a number of populist measures as well.

But, I don’t know how populist the GST will prove to be, as it is likely to disrupt a lot of people’s lives.

However, in the end, the measure will be good as it will overhaul the tax system in India.

With the elections coming up in 2019, I am sure there will be other populist measures.

Every politician in the world prepares for elections by giving away as much as he can.

What’s your view on India now as an investment destination? Are you planning to invest here?

No, not yet. That’s because I am not investing anywhere in the world right now. I am worried about the global financial markets and hence, I am in a wait-and-watch mode.

If the US, Japan, or any other major market has problems, it will be a bad one.

I am worried that the next time we have an economic slowdown, it’s going to be very, very bad and will impact everyone.

My decision to not invest now is not India-specific, but has to do with the problems relating to how the major global economies are shaping up.

So, what’s your view on the global financial markets from here on? Is a crash coming soon?

The US is the largest debtor nation in the world now, and its debts are mounting.

Its stock markets are at an all-time high and the central bank is continuing to raise interest rates.

I expect problems in the financial markets sometime later this year, or in the next year.

What factors will trigger a correction?

There are many things. It is always a combination of factors that we don’t expect.

In 2007, Iceland went bankrupt and most people didn’t know there was a country by that name and that it was running into a crisis.

And then Ireland went broke. And then Bear Stearns went broke. Lehman Brothers, too, went broke.

Problems spiral like that and then cause a crash across the financial markets.

There are many states in the US that are bankrupt now.

There are pension plans as well that are adding to the burden.

So the financial crisis can be triggered by the bankruptcy in these states, which most people don’t even know about.

It usually starts at the places we are not watching and then it spreads.

What are your views on gold and oil prices?

I own gold, but I am not buying more at these levels. If gold dips below $1,000 per ounce, I hope I’m smart enough to invest then.

Over the next few years, I think gold prices will go much higher. But before the rally, I expect prices to correct, which will be a good entry point.

In India, too, the government is trying to do its best to discourage people from buying gold.

So there are many things that can trigger a correction in gold prices.

Oil prices, in my view, are in the process of making a complicated bottom.

Over the next one year, oil prices can hit $30 and rally to $100 levels as well in the case of a war.

Bitcoin and other crypto currencies have caught investors’ fancy of late. Have you invested in any?

I have no investments in Bitcoin — I wish I had.

We do know that the world has many problems with money right now.

A number of things in our lives are being guided and solved by the computer, so we will have computer-money eventually.

Whether it is Bitcoin or not, I don’t know, as there are a number of crypto currencies and it is difficult to say which one will win at the end.

What I do know is in the future, money will be on the computer (virtual), just like everything else!

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BREXIT – Views and suggestions from India Inc. : Survey by FICCI Fri, 07 Jul 2017 06:10:44 +0000 more »]]>

July 2016

BREXIT – Views and suggestions from India Inc.

Section 1: Survey Findings 1

Section 2: Impact on India’s Economy and on Indian Businesses 6

Section 3: Impact on the Education Sector 10

Section 4: Impact on Immigration 12

Annexure 14 Page | 1

BREXIT – Views and suggestions from India Inc.

Section 1: Survey Findings

The Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016 was an unprecedented global development. The United Kingdom (UK) voting for the ‘Leave’ from the European Union (EU) is expected to have considerable socio economic and political ramifications in the years ahead. The decision assumes greater significance in context of the changing global order which is moving towards greater multilateralism and where countries are striving to lower their boundaries.

According to preliminary estimates by Standard & Poor, Brexit is expected to shave off 100 bps from UK’s growth and about 50 bps from EU’s growth in 2017. Also, investment flows to the UK are likely to be affected over the near term as the decision is expected to cause skepticism among investors. Further, elections in France and Germany are due next year and the October constitutional referendum in Italy adds to existing uncertainty in the region. It is being anticipated that the real negotiations between the UK and EU might start by next year when there is greater clarity on the political front in the region.

While the impact of this historic move will take some time to unfold, FICCI conducted a quick survey to gauge the sentiment among the Indian companies having operations in or doing business with the UK. Some of the companies surveyed share deep trade and investment linkages with the UK. Responses were received from about 45 companies covering sectors such as education, information technology, tyres, pharmaceuticals, steel and steel products, automotive, textiles, apparel, financial services etc.

Highlights of the Survey

The respondents were of the view that it is too soon to assess the impact of Brexit on the global economy and India. There will be more clarity once the actual policy response from United Kingdom and the European Union is spelled out. Things can be positive if the situation is managed well by both the European Union and the United Kingdom. Nonetheless, some frictional issues that would come with the transition cannot be ruled out.

Global Economic Situation: The respondents felt that the overall economic situation would remain difficult for the next two to three years. The global recovery remains frail and the Brexit move is detrimental to the overall health of the global economy. The exit from the European Union has increased the risk of United Kingdom falling into a recession.

Impact on Investments in the UK: United Kingdom has been the gateway to Europe and the survey participants felt that UK’s position as a major investment hub will get impacted over the near term. The increase in uncertainty post Brexit will impact the confidence level of potential investors wanting to invest in the UK.

Impact on British Pound: The investors have been pulling money out of the UK and this may exert a further downward pressure on the Pound. The survey respondents based out of the UK anticipated an increase in operational costs over the near term due to this pressure on the Pound Sterling.

Page | 2

BREXIT – Views and suggestions from India Inc.

% of respondents indicating investments in the UK

% of respondents exporting to the UK

% of respondents indicating investments from the UK

% of respondents importing from the UK

Immigration: The respondents expect more restrictions on immigration in the United Kingdom post Brexit. However, it was felt that the restrictions on the other EU citizens will be limited due to political reasons; Indian immigrants may have to feel the actual heat. The respondents indicated that the move might lead to brain drain from the United Kingdom.

However on a positive note, the respondents also felt that the Brexit could offer a chance for India to explore new opportunities.

Survey findings in numbers

While 48% of the survey participants indicated that their business linkage with the UK is largely for the UK market, 14% indicated that it is mainly for EU and the rest had a balanced interest in both the markets.

About half of the respondents reported that they don’t intend to set up separate operations in any other EU country over the near term following Brexit. It was said that it will take a couple of years for the actual picture to come to the fore.

43% of the survey participants anticipated a decrease in intra company transfers/movement of professionals to the UK from India over the medium term (next 3-5 years).

43% respondents cited a decrease in Indian migration to the UK over the medium term (next 3-5 years).

51% of the participants anticipated a decline in investments to the UK over the next three to five years.

About 63% of the participants indicated that signing a comprehensive FTA with the UK (on goods, services and investments) may help to mitigate any negative impact of Brexit on India. For example, if India enters into an agreement with the UK that leads to the legal services market opening up, then this could lessen the negative impact of Brexit on India-UK bilateral relations.

Business Interest of the Respondents Page | 3

BREXIT – Views and suggestions from India Inc.

Your business linkage with the UK largely for the UK market or for EU too?

Mainly the UK

Mainly EU

Impact of Brexit on your organisation’s business interests with the UK?

Makes no difference

Can’t say 7%

Plans to set up separate operations in other EU country post

Can’t Say

About 28% of companies participating in the survey indicated that Brexit is not good for their organization’s business interest in the UK. Further, while a quarter of the respondents said it makes no difference to them, only 16% considered Brexit to be good for their business. Those citing Brexit to be a positive development belonged to the education and hospitality sectors. Respondents from the auto components, apparel and IT sectors indicated skepticism about the impact of Brexit on their businesses.

Percent of respondents

Percent of respondents

Percent of respondents

Respondents divided about the likely impact of Brexit on their business interest

About 50% of the participants do not intend to set up separate operations in any other

country of the European Union because of Brexit Page | 4

BREXIT – Views and suggestions from India Inc.

Impact on Indian Migration

Will Increase

Will Decrease

Makes No Difference

Can’t say

Impact on Intra company transfers/ Movement of Professionals

Will Increase

Will Decrease

Makes No Difference

Can’t say

Percent of respondents

Exports to UK

Imports from UK

Percent of respondents

Investments to UK

Investments from UK

Percent of respondents

Impact on Bilateral Trade & Investments with UK over the Medium Term (next 3-5 years) Increase
Makes No Difference
Cannot Say

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निंदक नीयरे रखिये आँगन कुटीर छवाय – कबीर Economist : India’s Prime Minister Not As Much A Reformer As He Seems : गहन चिंतन आवश्यक है Sun, 25 Jun 2017 09:11:29 +0000 more »]]> निंदक नीयरे रखिये आँगन कुटीर छवाय  – कबीर  Economist : India’s Prime Minister Not As Much A Reformer As He Seems : गहन चिंतन आवश्यक है

 RKURajiv Upadhyaymodi puzzle

इकोनॉमिस्ट समेत सारे अंग्रेजी मीडिया के देशी व् विदेशी  अख़बार व् चेनेल भारत के मित्र नहीं हैं . इनमें से अधिकाँश भारत विरोधी हैं और सब विदेशी एजेंडा  पर काम करते हैं . २००२ के गुजरात काण्ड को जिस देशद्रोही तरीके से २०१३ के चुनाव तक प्रस्तुत करते रहे थे उससे किसी को इनका भारत का मित्र होने का संदेह  भी नहीं करना चाहिए . ये सब भारत की संस्कृति को बदल कर पश्चिमी संस्कृति लादना चाहते हैं और हिन्दू धर्म के कट्टर विरोधी हैं

.पर इस बार विदेशी पत्रिका Economist ने जो प्रधानमत्री  मोदी के बारे मैं लिखा है वह उनकी आर्थिक टीम की नाकामी उजागर करने के लिए पढ़ना चाहिए क्योंकि इस मैं लिखी अधिकाँश बातें सच हैं . इकोनॉमिस्ट जैसी प्रसिद्द पत्रिका की बात वैसे भी विदेशों मैं  मान ली जायेगी विशेषतः इस बार जब की उसकी किसी बात का खंडन करना संभव नहीं है . इसलिए उसकी बातों  पर गंभीर चिंतन की आवश्यकता है .

इसमें कोई संदेह नहीं है की मोदी सरकार के आर्थिक विभाग के अधिकारियों ने तीन साल मैं कोई नया ऐसा  विचार नहीं दिया  दिया  जिससे देश की आर्थिक प्रगति  को बढाया जा सके बल्कि उसे धक्का पहुंचाने वाले अनेकों कदम उठाये हैं . दूर गामी भले के नाम पर अधकचरे विचार लादे जा रहे हैं जब की उससे अच्छे कई तरीके उपलब्ध थे जिनसे उद्योगों को नुक्सान भी नहीं पहुंचता . इंस्पेक्टर व् बाबूराज चरमसीमा पर पहुंचा दिया.उदाहरण के लिए देश के कंस्ट्रक्शन उद्योग की नोट बंदी ने जो हालत खराब की उसे बचाया जा सकता था . चीन से दस लाख टन स्टील आयात करने के बजाय देसी उद्योगों को प्रोत्साहन दिया जाना चाहिए था. भारतीय स्वास्थ्य  सेवाओं के निर्यात को प्रोत्साहन दिया जा सकता था.इसका दुष्परिणाम  भी सामने आने लगा है. इमानदारी की अजीबो गरीब परिभाषा से बाबु कोई खतरा उठाने को तैयार नहीं है .नए विचारों मैं फ़ैल होने का खतरा तो होगा ही .देश की लिए बिना गलती के जेल जाना तो बाबु जात का कर्तव्य नहीं है  .यदि देश की प्रगति करनी है तो बड़े बाबुओं  को पहले की तरह सीबीआई , विजिलेंस व् ऑडिट के डर से मुक्त करना होगा . उसकी गलती की सज़ा तब दें जब उसने उनसे व्यक्तिगत  लाभ कमाया हो .जब तक बाबू डर के काम करेगा  तब तक  यदि कोई नया समाधान अच्छा भी हो तो उसे मानेगा ही नहीं क्योंकी हर नयी चीज़ मैं खतरा होता है.

गिरते हैं शाह सवार ही मैदाने जुंग मैं , वह तिफ्ल क्या गिरेंगे जो घुटनों के बल चले

आंकड़ों की हेरा फेरी को हटा कर यदि नापें तो पिछले तीन साल की आर्थिक प्रगति वाजपेयी व् यूपीए – १ के समकक्ष नहीं है . झूटे आंकड़ों  से अपनी असफलता छुपाई जा रही है .

यह सच है कि तथाकथित आर्थिक सुधार भारत  के  स्वावलंबन को कम करने का तरीका नहीं बनने  चाहिए जो की अमरीका समेत सभी पश्चिमी राष्ट्र चाहते हैं . परन्तु स्वदेशी के विचारों मैं भी तो देश को आगे ले जाने की  मौलिक क्षमता होनी चाहिए . देश मैं प्रखर मौलिक विचारकों का अकाल सा दीखता है . विद्वान् अहंकारी होता है और चमचा संस्कृति मैं नहीं पनप सकता. विद्वत्ता की पहचान व् बड़ाई करना अहंकारी बाबुओं के बस की बात नहीं है .स्वदेशी जागरण मंच समेत सारे देशी विचारक कुछ नया तो नहीं बता पाए बल्कि अचानक गरीब की बातें करने लगे  . सरकार कंग्रेस काल के विचारों को कार्यान्वन कर देश की कुछ प्रगति कर रही है . पर यह भी जल्दी समाप्त हो जायेंगे . इस सरकार का कोई विचारक भी उच्च स्तरीय समाधान नहीं ला पाया है .देश की वैचारिक प्रतिभा को खोजना होगा .

इसलिए आर्थिक विभागों की निकम्मेपन से प्रधान मंत्रि की इस विदेश यात्रा मैं पहले वाली गरम जोशी नहीं है . यही बात इकोनॉमिस्ट ने अपने लेख मैं कही है .

इकोनॉमिस्ट का विचारोत्तेजक  लेख निम्न लिंक पर पढ़ें

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Court clears Mississippi LGBT objections law; appeal likely

A three-judge panel reversed a judge's decision that had blocked the law. File photo.

JACKSON, Miss. (AP) — A federal appeals court said Thursday that Mississippi can start enforcing a law that allows merchants and government employees cite religious beliefs to deny services to same-sex couples, but opponents of the law immediately pledged to appeal.

The appeals court said plaintiffs failed to prove that they would be harmed by the law, which started as House Bill 1523 . Legal experts said it is the broadest religious-objections measure enacted by any state.

The law championed and signed in 2016 by Republican Gov. Phil Bryant sought to protect three beliefs: marriage is only between a man and a woman; sex should only take place in such a marriage; and a person's gender is determined at birth and cannot be altered. It would allow clerks to cite religious objections to recuse themselves from issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples, and would protect merchants who refuse services to LGBT people. It could affect adoptions and foster care, business practices and school bathroom policies.

Robert McDuff, an attorney for some of the people who sued to try to block the law, criticized the appeals court for saying plaintiffs had failed to show they would be harmed.

"People should not have to live through discrimination in order to challenge this obviously unconstitutional bill," McDuff said.

McDuff said that within two weeks, he will either ask the entire 5th Circuit to reconsider the panel's decision or ask the U.S. Supreme Court to block the law. He said that when — or whether — the law will take effect depends on the outcome of the appeal.

Gay and straight plaintiffs who sued the state say the law gives "special protections to one side" in a religious debate.

"As I have said all along, the legislation is not meant to discriminate against anyone, but simply prevents government interference with the constitutional right to exercise sincerely held religious beliefs," Bryant said Thursday.

Kevin Theriot (TAIR-ee-oh) is an attorney for Alliance Defending Freedom, an Arizona-based Christian group that helped to write the Mississippi law. He praised the appeals court decision.

"The sole purpose of this law is to ensure that Mississippians don't live in fear of losing their careers or their businesses simply for affirming marriage as a husband-wife union," Theriot said Thursday. "Those who filed suit have not and will not be harmed but want to restrict freedom and impose their beliefs on others by ensuring dissenters are left open to the government discrimination that has already occurred in states without protective laws like this one."

ACLU of Mississippi Executive Director Jennifer Riley Collins had the following reaction:

"We are disappointed that the appeals court has reversed the preliminary injunction placed on HB 1523 and dismissed the case. This decision places the plaintiffs and thousands more LGBT Mississippians and single parents in a position where they can be harmed for living as their authentic selves. This broad license to discriminate includes provisions that would seek to allow state employees to withhold marriage licenses from same-sex couples.

"Freedom of religion is one of the most fundamental rights we have as Americans, but that freedom does not give any of us the right to harm or mistreat others.

By Emily Wagster Pettus with contributions by the ACLU of Mississippi.
Copyright Associated Press. The Gayly - 6/22/2017 @ 1:40 p.m. CST


Regular Season End

my regular season is over. i was 4-1 on the weekend, and finally got my act together. the men’s squad is now 82-0 over three years of fencing. and my time fencing as a part of the team is almost up. the drive back from East Lansing was quite an experience. the weather was awful. snow snow snow. a bunch of the team went out drinking. i would have liked to join them but as always, i’m flatass broke. today i will look for a job and try to write a poem in iambic pentameter. writing with accent and meter is much harder than writing normally.


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The Lonely Terror of Postpartum Anxiety

(click link to read this really important piece on

Postpartum Depression Can Happen to Any Parent

Postpartum Depression Can Happen to Any Parent

The baby blues aren’t just the domain of birth mothers: fathers, adoptive parents, and nonbiological mothers are also at risk.

Postpartum depression is a condition diagnosed in mothers—birth mothers, specifically—coming home from the hospital after giving birth and feeling that something is off. That the joy they thought they should be feeling is nowhere to be found.

While hormonal changes associated with birth can play a role, according to the Mayo Clinic, hormones are just one ingredient in a stew of risk factors that also includes sleep deprivation, lifestyle, and environment. All of these other factors can affect any new parent. And they do.

(click link above to read on The Atlantic)


Gufeld, Exploiting Small advantages

Lieferzeit ca. 3-4 Tage

24,95 €*

144 Seiten, kartoniert, 2001
Today, chess players are better informed than ever before and have a greater appreciation of good chess play. As a consequence, games between players who are roughly equal in strength tend to be close run - with the result often depending on the exploitation of a small advantage.
But how many full or half points have been squandered because a player was unable to convert a small material or positional advantage, or did not make full use of the drawing tendencies of opposite-coloured bishops, or failed to hold a defensible position because of impatience or panic
This book shows the reader how to recognise and realise even the smallest of advantages, how to find compensation in uneven alignments of forces, and how to hang on resourcefully while in a slightly inferior position. All of which will mean more points on the scoreboard!
Eduard Gufeld, originally from the Ukraine, is a globetrotting grandmaster currently living in America. A witty and popular character, he is well known for his lively chess writings and lectures, aimed at club players.

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Naoko Kosaka

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Is there a Xenforo -> Gallery or Coppermine bridge?

Are these as good as as some of those readily available dedicated galleries? Wouldn't it have been easier to create a bridge for either of them, rather than write a new gallery? Or is the code completely different?