Food fitness

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I will deal with each of those distinctions briefly and food fitness separate rubrics in the next few sections. My own hypothesis about narrative understanding as participatory sense making will be developed in Sections Narrative Enaction: Changing the Assumptions of Narrative Understanding, Narrative Enaction and Participatory Sense-Making, and Narrative Enaction: Current Empirical Data and Future Possibilities below.

In this group belong theories that seek to examine textual features, properties and characteristics of the narrative text wise calculator as the most significant food fitness of the meaning construal process.

The definitional criteria of narrative proposed in food fitness and structuralist theories have centered on temporal food fitness causal ordering, plot and action structure, and orientation toward human agents and their purposeful food fitness, among good, all of which are seen food fitness text-internal and therefore pertaining to issues of form and content.

Although classical narratologists are the main proponents of text-internal views, there is also a significant amount of psychological and early cognitive science work that similarly distinguishes narrative from other forms of futness organization on text-internal grounds.

Thus, even Jerome Bruner (1986, p. On his food fitness people employ the paradigmatic type of reasoning when they think food fitness scientific or logical matters, while narrative thought serves the purpose of explaining the changing directions of human action. Crucially, Bruner sees narrativity as a structural property, a cognitive invariant of sorts, that only later, in different discourse realizations gets Rabies Vaccine (Rabavert)- FDA constructivist flavor.

Thus, fitnss story schemata are formalized as a set of generative rules that are used to understand and produce narrative as a specific text-type in opposition to other types food fitness as description, argumentation or instruction.

Schemata and story grammars Zemaira (Alpha-Proteinase Inhibitor (Human))- Multum insufficient to explain narrative understanding on their own, however.

Despite the fact that they organize aspects of memory and guide food fitness of new narratives food fitness supplementing missing information, a good narrative is a distinctive and coherent series of events uniquely informed by a specific point of view.

Fitnrss the irreducibility of causality as a mental process, the connectivity food fitness configuration of a good narrative are imposed by a specific food fitness viewpoint, as I will argue food fitness, and not a result of a food fitness narrative schema instantiation4.

Finally, in this group of text-internal approaches I will classify a number of theories put forward by philosophers iftness literary critics that have become known as poststructuralist. The main thrust of the poststructuralist approaches is thus a search for the latent contradictions in texts that the participants in a communicative exchange are themselves believed to be blind to, because any intention at communicating meaning is judged to be subsumed by the discourse-driven disembodied signifying process itself.

One of the food fitness for this ultimately flawed understanding of language is the fact that it deliberately ignores the significant factor of meaning being born in the interaction fitneess the meaning constitutive practices of human agents. A communicative understanding of literature provides the starting point for many of the text-external approaches to meaning construal in Monurol (Fosfomycin)- Multum. Narrative need not be always verbally instantiated but it needs to be somehow externally presented to be communicated and understood, as in a silent film, or a dance, or a mime performance.

Verbal communication has food fitness looked at in terms of the communicative intention of a speaker and the subsequent interpretation of that intention, but also in terms Gattex (Teduglutide [rDNA origin] for Injection)- FDA existing conventions food fitness and context. Unless some form of explicit verification of the original communicative intention is made, what gets transmitted in an act food fitness verbal communication is a series of cues that get reconstructed by a listener.

Any communicative exchange is then food fitness an attempt music therapy initio meaning food fitness which may or may not be successful. What is important to note even in this early model is the realization that the message alone does not and cannot supply all the meaning of the exchange. A speech act is a process where much of what gets communicated derives from an interaction between a speaker, and a listener, but also and importantly with the help of context, code and intention.

In literary theoretical approaches the shift toward understanding narrative as a form of communication food fitness led to an increased preoccupation with understanding the reception process itself (albeit in a non-empirical way) and Xylocaine (Lidocaine)- FDA a move beyond the formalism of early narratological models.

In more linguistic approaches it has conditioning evident in the increased interest in the food fitness, rather than the semantics, of texts. Pragmatics, despite its close connection with linguistics, was originally developed by philosophers, such as Austin (1962) and Searle (1969), a fact fitmess explains its preoccupation with what is taken to be the real acts and dynamic contexts of food fitness exchanges between people.

The assumption in food fitness pragmatics is that in using language we perform various actions or speech acts, which go beyond the merely food fitness exchange of words. The most food fitness aspect of linguistic pragmatics for our purposes here is to recognize its open acknowledgement of some degree of cooperation and food fitness in language understanding: meaning and understanding are always correlative.

On hosting face of it this view appears consistent with the one fopd developed below of narrative understanding as participatory sense-making.

The key difference is how the concept of cooperation and participation is understood: as a food fitness way of unpacking an intention, in the former case, or as an hypertension pulmonary interaction, in the latter. Language is rarely able to convey meaning explicitly, so through words and sentences people say things that prompt food fitness to make inferences and understand the implied meanings.

According to Grice, four maxims, of quantity food fitness the information sufficient), quality, (is it true), relation (is it relevant), foos manner (is it orderly), flod the cooperative principle and give rise to different non-explicit meanings (implicatures). Thus, the successful recovery of an food fitness by a recipient Mutamycin (Mitomycin)- Multum on recognition of the communicative intention of the sender.

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View the score.

For me, the compositional process always starts with a musical motive, harmonic idea, or vague stylistic impression. Coming up with a title usually happens much later in the development of the work, sometimes at the very end. In contrast, the inspiration for the creation of Se-SAW was its title, a clever acronym provided by Biloxi High School Band Director, Travis Coakley, at the time of the commission, along with the expectation that the piece depict playtime with children. Upon receipt of the finished draft, Mr. Coakley kindly supplied this program note and dedication:

Playtime for children is a sacred and special time. It is during this time when a child’s imagination is allowed to run wild with adventures full of unlimited possibilities. The composition Se-SAW attempts to capture the fun, the excitement, and the zaniness that playtime encapsulates.

For parents, it is truly special when a child asks, “Will you play with me?” This piece is dedicated to Sarah, Alice, and William Coakley and their mother Selina for whom the piece is named. Thank you for always allowing me to join in your adventures. It means more than you will ever know.”


Crucial Enterprise Content material Portal Features

The term organization portal is normally used to specify a feature by using an online business web page that enables authorized users to gain access to limited information or content. The objective of the business website would be designed for online corporations or institutions to show contacts, manage email, and provide a public or private media gain access to. There are many various other uses as well. However , by most people, the main goal on the business webpage would be to allow users gain access to the main aspects of the website, along with access details or content material not originally available to them.

Business portals can be obtained on numerous websites, and so are developed applying several different courses. Some of the most liked programs contain Joomla!, Drupal, and Magento. The most important enterprise content sites would be those that are developed using Joomla cms! This is a highly advanced and flexible open source content management system, and the majority coming from all modern business web sites are being constructed with it in mind.

However , while said previously, there are a variety of web portals, certainly not all of them have to use Joomla! However , considering that the majority of modern day corporate sites do, it is actually highly recommended to use Joomla! seeing that the default system to build web websites from. In so doing, it will permit you to customize the characteristics and the user interface for your organization portal and will save lots of time and cash as well. Ultimately, it will ensure that you make the most away of your fresh online business webpage and grow it by a much more quickly rate than if you attempted to develop you without Joomla cms!

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Vietnamese, male, 57 years old, director of a travel company

1. What’s the average earnings and basic living costs of food?

Average salary 7 000 000 dong/month $311
Milk, 1 liter 30 000 dong $1.3
Rice, 10 kg 70 000 – 200 000 dong $3-9
Chicken, 1 kg 200 000 dong $9
Pork, 1 kg 120 000 dong $5
Beef, 1 kg 300 000 dong $13
Eggs, 20 pieces 50 000 dong $2
Mango, 1 kg 70 000 dong $3
Watermelon, 1 kg 20 000 dong $1

2. What celebrations and festivals do you have in your country?

New Year 1 January
Full Moon festival April, 14th day of each lunar month
Independence day 2 September
Labour day 1 May

3. What’s the weather like in your country?

Weather in Hoi An

Hot weather April – July
Cold weather with rains August – December
Cold weather January – March

4. What’s the local cuisine and the dish of the day?

Pho (noodle soup) with beef in the morning. Rice with fish/meat in the afternoon and evening.

5. What expectations do you have for your grandchildren?

I wish my grandchildren to be successful and do something useful for Vietnam.

6. How did you furnish and design your place? Is your house big/small?

Conservative style, wooden tables and chairs, big screen TVs, air conditioners.

7. Is there anything unique created with people’s hands in this country?

8. What pension are you entitled to in this country?

A pension age for a male is 60 years, for a female – 55 years. Pension is 70% of a salary.

9. How much would I be expected to pay for the following: land, house, apartment?

There are no apartments in Vietnam.

Land, 200 m² 2 billion dong $89 000
House, 200 m² 3 billion dong $133 000

10. How much would I be expected to pay for an apartment + energy bills + internet + other utilities monthly?

House taxes 300 000 dong/year $13
Electricity 2 000 000 dong/month $89
Water supply 500 000 dong/month $22

This house is also a hostel, so the cost of electricity and water is higher (business prices). For a normal house the cost of electricity and water is around 500 000 dong/month ($22) for both.

11. What expectations do you hope to achieve for the future?

I want to have a lot of money for myself and my family. There are no insurances in Vietnam. I want to accumulate money for my old age. It will be possible to do many good and useful things such as charity.


Animal Development

Epigenesis is the belief that the form of an embryo gradually develops from a formless egg. This idea was originally proposed by the Greek philosopher Aristotle. Modern biologists have found that the organism's development is mostly determined by the zygote's genome and the organization of the egg's cytoplasm. As the zygote undergoes cleavage, the cytoplasm is compartmentalized causing the nuclei of the different cells to be exposed to different cytoplasmic environments. These different cytoplasmic environments result in the expression of different genes in different cells. Inherited traits then emerge, in an orderly fashion, in space and time by mechanisms controlling gene expression.

Embryonic development involves cell division, differentiation, and morphogenesis. Cell division results in an increase in the number of cells. All the cells result from mitotic divisions beginning with the zygote. Differentiation is the development of specialized cells that are organized into tissues and organs. This differentiation is controlled by the cell's expression of different genes brought on by its contact with the environment. Morphogenesis includes the physical processes that give shape to the animal's body and organs.

Fertilization: activates the egg and brings together the nuclei of the sperm and egg. Fertilization forms the diploid zygote and triggers the onset of embryonic development. The steps in the fertilization process are as follows:

The Acrosomal Reaction

This reaction is caused by a discharge of hydrolytic enzymes from the arcosome of the sperm cell. When the head of the sperm contacts the egg the enzymes are released from a vesicle. This allows the arcosomal process to elongate and penetrate the the jell coat of the egg. The protein coating the tip will attach to the exact receptors on the egg's vitelline layer to ensure it is the correct species of sperm. The enzymes continue to digest the membrane allowing the tip to reach the plasma membrane of the egg. The two membranes fuse, allowing the sperm's nucleus to enter the egg. A quick depolarization then occurs locking out all other sperm from the egg.

The Cortical Reaction

The fusion of the sperm and egg membranes stimulates a series of changes in the egg's cortex. The egg-sperm fusion causes a signal transduction pathway involving a G- protein to stimulate the release of Ca2+ from the egg's endoplasmic reticulum. The Calcium acts as a second messenger and results in a change in the egg's cortical granules. This increase in calcium causes the cortical granules to fuse with the plasma membrane and release their contents into the perivitlline space outside of the plasma membrane. Eventually the area will swell and become hard forming a fertilization membrane. This membrane will prevent additional sperm from entering the egg .

Activation of the Egg

The sharp rise in cytoplasmic calcium also incites metabolic changes that activates the egg. Cellular respiration and protein synthesis increase; cytoplasmic pH becomes more basic due to a loss of H+ ; the sperm nucleus swells and merges with the egg nucleus to form the zygote and DNA replication begins with the first division occurring in about 90 minutes.

Cleavage: is a succession of rapid mitotic cell divisions following fertilization and produces a multi cellular embryo, the blastula. During cleavage the S and M stages of the cell cycle occur, while the G1 and G2 phase are skipped. Very little DNA transcription occurs causing very little growth in the embryo. A definite polarity develops in the egg caused by the concentration of materials such as mRNA, proteins, and yolk. The yolk is key in determining polarity and influencing cleavage in many animals. The egg's vegetal pole contains the highest concentration of yolk. The animal pole contains the lowest concentration and is the area where polar bodies bud off of the cell. The animal pole marks where the most anterior part of the animal will form. The animal hemisphere is gray due to the presence of the pigment melanin. The vegetal hemisphere is slightly yellow due to the yellow yolk.

Cleavage in the animal hemisphere is more rapid than in the vegetal hemisphere. If there is little yolk in the vegetal hemisphere cleavage will proceed equally. The first two cleavage divisions are vertical and divide the embryo into 4 cells. The third cleavage plane is horizontal and produces an 8 cell embryo with two levels. Deuterostome cleavage forms 2 tiers of cells one exactly above the other. Protostome cleavage the upper tier of cell align directly over the grooves of the lower tier. Continual cleavage produces a solid ball of cells called the morula. A fluid filled cavity, called the blastocoel develops within the morula forming a hollow ball of cells called the blastula.

Gastrulation rearranges the blastula to form a three-layered embryo with a primitive gut. The three layers produced by gastrulation are embryonic tissues called embryonic germ layers. These three germ layers will eventually develop into all parts of the adult animal. The ectoderm is the outer layer of the gastrula. The nervous system and the outer layer of the skin in adult animals develop from the ectoderm. The endoderm produces the lining of the digestive tract and associated organs (liver, pancreas). The mesoderm partially fills the space between the ecto and endoderm. The kidneys, heart, muscles, inner layer of the skin and most other organs develop from the mesoderm.

Gastrulation during frog development begins with a small crease on the blastula where the blastopore will eventually form. Invagination occurs due to a cluster of cells burrowing inward. This process produces a dorsal lip where the gray crescent was located on the zygote. Involution then occurs. This is the process where cells on the surface roll up and move into the embryo's interior away from the blastopore. The archenteron ( primitive gut ) forms within the endoderm.

Organogenesis: forms the organs of the animal body from the three embryonic layers. The first evidence of organogenesis is morphogentic changes (folds, splits, condensation of cells) that occur in the layered embryonic tissues. The neural tube and notochord are the first organs to develop in frogs and other chordates. The ectoderm above the beginning notochord thickens to form the neural plate that sinks below the the embryo's surface and rolls itself into a neural tube which will become the brain and spinal cord. The notochord stretches the embryo lengthwise and forms the core around witch the mesoderm cells will develop the muscles of the axial skeleton. As organogenesis continues, other organs and tissues develop from the embryonic germ layers: Ectoderm: epidermis, epidermal glands, inner ear, and eye lens, Mesoderm: notochord, coelomic lining, muscles, skeleton, gonads, kidneys, and most of the circulatory system, Endoderm: forms the digestive tract lining, liver, pancreas, and lungs.


Selecting an SIEM Solution For Your Organization Simplified

Selecting the correct Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) solution for an organization is not an easy task. The purpose of this article is to educate you why you should or should not have a SIEM solution, what key areas to look at when acquiring and SIEM solution and I'll also give you some of my own opinions or certain vendors and options.

SIEM is a hybrid of two products SIM (security information management) and SEM (security event management). SEM technology evolves with real-time activities such as real-time correlation, alerting, dashboards, etc. SIM component is responsible for retention of logs for log-term analysis and forensics, reporting, pattern discovery, etc. Most of the leading SIEM vendors now provide ticketing/workflow management systems, integrated knowledge-bases various other components integrated to their SIEM solution.

Are You Ready for a SIEM Solution?

Deploying a SIEM solution is not like deploying a point security product; it requires a lot of integrations, tuning, and customizations to be done. SIEM solutions require organizations having a certain level of maturity in their information security posture. This maturity should be there in IT infrastructure, IT governance/security practices and in the workforce in the organization.

SIEM solution is only good as what you feed into it. So if your organization still do not have a firewall, anti-virus solution or an IPS, SIEM solution is not going to help much. It's also true for information security practices in your company. If you do not have any information and asset classification scheme, policy for logging, incident response plans and procedures, etc., the SIEM will not be effective in the organization.

I have personally seen the organization going for SIEM solutions too early and losing faith in the solution. Therefore make sure that your organization has matured enough for a SIEM solution.

Building from Ground Up

Most of the organization do not straightaway go for event correlation with a SIEM system. They initially start with SIM (log management). Then they transition to a full SIEM deployment. This is beneficial for organizations who do not even have centralized log management in place. So the individual does not have many ideas about the volume, storage requirements, another resource such as bandwidth required to collect, store and analyze logs centrally.

SIEM solutions generally cost a lot. If your SIEM solution is not doing anything for a few months is a waste of money. SIEMs, in fact, require some getting used to. Identifying and familiarizing with the logs takes some time too. So having a log consolidation solution first is a good transition for the IT staff.

Identify Stakeholder requirements

Generally, SIEM has a lot of business units that interact with it. Information security/risk and compliance, internal;/external audit, incident response, networking, sys admins, system owners, etc. So you need to identify the different requirements of these business units. Some are achievable other are not through a SIEM.

In my experience, when we say correlation people think SIEM as a mysterious box that can do magic and give them everything they need.

Let me give you an example. One question I got from a client of mine was that "can your SIEM solution checked who viewed the files on my file server". Then I asked, "do you have any solution to monitor that activity". He stated that they were just using a windows share. I explained to my client that, if there's a separate solution/mechanism to monitor users activity on the file server and log it, then I can incorporate that log into the SIEM, otherwise SIEM product alone does not have any capability to do such thing.

After identifying the requirements, you should determine, weather the requirements are mandatory or optional. An optional requirement is "the thing that you can live without". It'll also be beneficial if you can assign a priority value for these requirements. So if the budget permits, you can select the most important optional requirements first.

The two main components that you should determine if the rate of logs produced in your organization and the log retention requirement. The rate of logs is typically denoted as Events Per Second (EPS). Most of the SIEM solutions are based on EPS value, plus some additional criteria such as the number of log sources, etc.

How Do I Calculate My EPS Value?

If you do not have any idea about the EPS value of your organization, there are ways that you can estimate these values. Most of the vendors have created EPS calculators. These calculators use typical EPS values that each device produce. We'll look at this in detail later. However, this is an estimation. However, I have been able to estimate average ESP values using such calculators quite accurately. Similarly, you SIEM vendor or the systems integrator will be able to estimate your EPS value if you do not have any idea about it.

The second and the more accurate way to calculate this EPS is through a PoC (Proof of Concept) implementation of the product. Most of the vendors welcome the opportunity to do a PoC with their product in your environment.This is also a good opportunity for to get a taste of the product. The other benefit you get from the PoC is a sense of what the EPS in your environment is. You can easily extrapolate the EPS value from your PoC to your organization.

The second most important factor in sizing the solution is the log retention period. The retention period is generally dictated by a regulatory or internal security policy requirement. There's a good chance that you don't have any say in the retention period.

However, when sizing you SIEM solution, you must take one other factor into account. That is, how long do you want the logs to be "online"? SIEM gives you the ability to analyze and generate reports on the logs in its storage. It only has the ability to do this while logs are in it's "online" storage. When the online storage is filled or once a log reaches its "online retention period" it's either moved to secondary storage (SAN, NAS, file server, etc.) Once that's moved you do not have the capability to analyze it (there are few exceptions for this, but for most of the cases this is the case).

Most of the SIEM solutions give you the ability to bring back archived logs into the online storage and make them "online" again. So you still have the ability to analyze archived logs. But let's say that your organization's management requires to give them quarterly reports. Then you should consider at least keeping 3 months of events in the online storage.

It's ideal if you can keep all your logs online for the entire retention period, but it would be very expansive to do so. Therefore the total retention period is divided into two: online retention period and offline retention period.

Once you know the online retention period, you must determine how much storage is required to retain logs. Again, you can use the same techniques that you used to calculate/estimate EPS to determine the storage requirement

Sid note: SIEM solution compress events in its storage, typically about 10:1. So when a SIEM vendor says they have 42 TBs of event storage, it means that the device can support up to that much-uncompressed event; not that the SIEM box has 42 TBs of hard disk storage.

By now, I hope you have some understanding about what you should look at when you are selecting a SIEM solution for you. In part two, I'll be comparing products.

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BHF, Bognor Regis, West Sussex

ConversesSecondhand/Used Bookshop/store Addicts

Afegeix-te a LibraryThing per participar.

BHF, Bognor Regis, West Sussex

gen. 24, 2008, 3:09pm

British Heart Foundation
2b London Road
Bognor Regis
West Sussex

I have to confess to being highly biased here, as I actually manage the British Heart Foundation shop in Bognor, therefore get first pick of all the wonderful books we get donated. This has actually come in rather handy when volunteers try to throw away books because they look to old for our shop, because I've found some pretty tasty, rare (and expensive) first editions and signed books. Unfortunately it also means that I now have to sneak books into my house so that I don't get in trouble for owning so many and not having the time to read them.


Codecademy added Introdution to Blockchain course

Codecademy added Introdution to Blockchain course

Codecademy, popular online interactive platform that offers coding classes in programming languages like Python, Java, JavaScript, Ruby, SQL, Html, CSS added “Introduction to Blockchain” course. In this course you can learn about fundamental blockchain concepts and build a small blockchain of your own in Python.

“In this course, you’ll learn the structure and properties of the blockchain itself and the individual blocks that make it up. You’ll understand the blockchain features that provide security between different blockchain participants. You’ll visualize different aspects of the blockchain and create and tamper with your own blocks through interactive simulations.

If you have some Python experience, you’ll be able to build a small blockchain library in Python, including a Blockchain class and a Block class. Add functionality to add blocks, create hashes, and verify the chain.”

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The beloved ice cream brand wanted to modernize its identity while still maintaining their iconic 31 flavor heritage.

With a cult-like following, Baskin-Robbins is a brand that has the unique potential to transcend generations. The new visual identity system would turn fans of yesterday into brand loyalists of today and capturing Gen Z’s heart with everyday moments of “happy”. Equally as important is celebrating the quality and creativity of the product that founders Burt and Irv embraced from the very beginning.

The Change

Revolutionizing the brand meant taking a step back to understand the founding principles and earliest expressions of the brand. Leaning into their circus roots, the path to a younger, yet more sophisticated identity became abundantly clear. With its mid-century vibes, the new identity system is fun and bold retaining the “31” built right into the BR monogram itself. Every touchpoint received a makeover with a new color palette as the foundation - ice cream photography, packaging, uniforms and in-store graphics round out the system to create a cohesive and playful brand expression.

The new visual identity system was unveiled in April 2022, receiving a positive response from the industry and customers alike. Baskin-Robbins now personifies its mission to flavor every day with “happy” and stay “forever young”.


  2. I calculated the unweighted average of those predicted probabilities.

  • Probability of war: 11%

A Forecast of Global Democratization Trends Through 2025

A couple of months ago, I was asked to write up my thoughts on global trends in democratization over the next five to 10 years. I said at the time that, in coarse terms, I see three plausible alternative futures: 1) big net gains, 2) big net losses, and 3) little net change.

  • By big net gains, I mean a rise in the prevalence of democratic regimes above 65 percent, or, or, because of its size and geopolitical importance, democratization in China absent a sharp decline in the global prevalence of democracy. For big net gains to happen, we would need to see a) one or more clusters of authoritarian breakdown and subsequent democratization in the regions where such clusters are still possible, i.e., Asia, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East and North Africa (or the aforementioned transition in China); and b) no sharp losses in the regions where democracy is now prevalent, i.e., Europe, the Americas, and sub-Saharan Africa. I consider (a) unlikely but possible (see here) and (b) highly likely. The scenario requires both conditions, so it is unlikely.
  • By big net losses, I mean a drop in the global prevalence of democracy below 55 percent. For that to happen, we would need to see the opposite of big net gains—that is, a) no new clusters of democratization and no democratization in China and b) sharp net losses in one or more of the predominantly democratic regions. In my judgment, (a) is likely but (b) is very unlikely. This outcome depends on the conjunction of (a) and (b), so the low probability of (b) means this outcome is highly unlikely. A reversion to autocracy somewhere in Western Europe or North America would also push us into “big net loss” territory, but I consider that event extremely unlikely (see here and here for why).
  • In the absence of either of these larger shifts, we will probably see little net change in the pattern of the past decade or so: a regular trickle of transitions to and from democracy at rates that are largely offsetting, leaving the global prevalence hovering between 55 and 65 percent. Of course, we could also wind up with little net change in the global prevalence of democracy under a scenario in which some longstanding or otherwise significant authoritarian regimes—for example, China, Russia, Iran, or Saudi Arabia— break down, and those breakdowns spread to interdependent regimes, but most of those breakdowns lead to new authoritarian regimes or short-lived attempts at democracy. This is what we saw in the Arab Spring, and base rates from the past several decades suggest that it is the most likely outcome of any regional clusters of authoritarian breakdown in the next decade or so as well. I consider this version of the little-net-change outcome to be more likely than the other one (offsetting trickles of transitions to and from democracy with no new clusters of regime breakdown). Technically, we could also get to an outcome of little net change through a combination of big net losses in predominantly democratic regions and big gains in predominantly authoritarian regions, but I consider this scenario so unlikely in the next five to 10 years that it’s not worth considering in depth.

I believe the probabilities of big net gains and persistence of current levels are both much greater than the probability of big net losses. In other words, I am generally bullish. For the sake of clarity, I would quantify those guesses as follows:

  • Probability of big net gains: 20 percent
  • Probability of little net change: 75 percent
    • With regime breakdown in one or more critical autocracies: 60 percent
    • Without regime breakdown in any critical autocracies: 15 percent
  • Probability of big net losses: 5 percent

That outlook is informed by a few theoretical and empirical observations.

First, when I talk about democratization, I have in mind expansions of the breadth, depth, and protection of consultation between national political regimes and their citizens. As Charles Tilly argues on p. 24 of his 2007 book, Democracy, “A regime is democratic to the degree that political relations between the state and its citizens feature broad, equal, protected, and mutually binding consultation.” Fair and competitive elections are the most obvious and in some ways the most important form this consultation can take, but they are not the only one. Still, for purposes of observing broad trends and coarsely comparing cases, we can define a democracy as a regime in which officials who actually rule are chosen through fair and competitive elections in which nearly all adult citizens can vote. The fairness of elections depends on the existence of numerous civil liberties, including freedoms of speech, assembly, and association, and the presence of a reasonably free press, so this is not a low bar. Freedom House’s list of electoral democracies is a useful proxy for this set of conditions.

Second, we do not understand the causal processes driving democratization well, and we certainly don’t understand them well enough to know how to manipulate them in order to reliably produce desired outcomes. The global political economy, and the political economies of the states that comprise one layer of it, are parts of a complex adaptive system. This system is too complex for us to model and understand in ways that are more than superficial, partly because it continues to evolve as we try to understand and manipulate it. That said, we have seen some regularities in this system over the past half-century or so:

  • States are more likely to try and then to sustain democratic regimes as their economies grow, their economies become more complex, and their societies transform in ways associated with those trends (e.g., live longer, urbanize, and become more literate). These changes don’t produce transitions, but they do create structural conditions that are more conducive to them.
  • Oil-rich countries have been the exceptions to this pattern, but even they are not impervious (e.g., Mexico, Indonesia). Specifically, they are more susceptible to pressures to democratize when their oil income diminishes, and variation over time in that income depends, in part, on forces beyond their control (e.g., oil prices).
  • Consolidated single-party regimes are the most resilient form of authoritarian rule. Personalist dictatorships are also hard to topple as long as the leader survives but often crumble when that changes. Military-led regimes that don’t evolve into personalist or single-party autocracies rarely last more than a few years, especially since the end of the Cold War.
  • Most authoritarian breakdowns occur in the face of popular protests, and those protests are more likely to happen when the economy is slumping, when food or fuel prices are spiking, when protests are occurring in nearby or similar countries, and around elections. Signs that elites are fighting amongst themselves may also help to spur protests, but elite splits are common in autocracies and often emerge in reaction to protests, not ahead of them.
  • Most attempts at democracy end with a reversion to authoritarian rule, but the chances that countries will try again and then that democracy will stick improve as countries get richer and have tried more times before. The origins of the latter pattern are unclear, but they probably have something to do with the creation of new forms of social and political organization and the subsequent selection and adaptation of those organizations into “fitter” competitors under harsh pressures.

Third, whatever its causes, there is a strong empirical trend toward democratization around the world. Since the middle of the twentieth century, both the share of regimes worldwide that are democratic and the share of the global population living in democratic regimes have expanded dramatically. These expansions have not come steadily, and there is always some churn in the system, but the broader trend persists in spite of those dips and churn

The strength and, so far, persistence of this trend lead me to believe that the global system would have to experience a profound collapse or transformation for that trend to be disrupted. Under the conditions that have prevailed for the past century or so, selection pressures in the global system seem to be running strongly in favor of democratic political regimes with market-based economies.

Crucially, this long-term trend has also proved resilient to the global financial crisis that began in 2007-2008 and has persisted to some degree ever since. This crisis was as sharp a stress test of many national political regimes as we have seen in a while, perhaps since World War II. Democracy has survived this test in all of the world’s wealthy countries, and there was no stampede away from democracy in less wealthy countries with younger regimes. Freedom House and many other activists lament the occurrence of a “democratic recession” over the past several years, but global data just don’t support the claim that one is occurring. What we have seen instead is a slight decline in the prevalence of democratic regimes accompanied by a deepening of authoritarian rule in many of the autocracies that survived the last flurry of democratic transitions.

Meanwhile, some authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa broke down in the face of uprisings demanding greater popular accountability, and some of those breakdowns led to attempts at democratization—in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya in particular. Most of those attempts at democratization have since failed, but not all did, Tunisia being the notable exception. What’s more, the popular pressure in favor of democratization has not dissipated in all of the cases where authoritarian breakdown didn’t happen. Bahrain, Kuwait, and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia are notable in this regard.

Rising pressures on China and Russia suggest that similar clusters of regime instability are increasingly likely in their respective neighborhoods, even if they remain unlikely in any given year. China faces significant challenges on numerous fronts, including a slowing economy, a looming real-estate debt crisis, swelling popular frustration over industrial pollution, an uptick in labor activism, an anti-corruption campaign that could alienate some political and military insiders, and a separatist insurgency in Xinjiang. No one of those challenges is necessarily likely to topple the regime, but the presence of so many of them at once adds up to a significant risk (or opportunity, depending on one’s perspective). A regime crisis in China could ripple through its region with strongest effect on the most dependent regimes—on North Korea in particular, but also perhaps Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar. Even if a crisis there didn’t reverberate, China’s population size and rising international influence imply that any movement toward democracy would have a significant impact on the global balance sheet.

The Russian regime is also under increased pressure, albeit for different reasons. Russia is already in recession, and falling oil prices and capital flight are making things much worse without much promise of near-term relief. U.S. and E.U. sanctions deserve significant credit (or blame) for the acceleration of capital flight, and prosecution of the war in Ukraine is also imposing additional direct costs on Russia’s power resources. The extant regime has survived domestic threats before, but 10 more years is a long time for a regime that stands on feet of socioeconomic clay.

Above all else, these last two points—about 1) the resilience of existing democracies to the stress of the past several years and 2) the persistence and even deepening of pressures on many surviving authoritarian regimes—are what make me bullish about the prospects for democracy in next five to 10 years. In light of current trends in China and Russia, I have a hard time imagining both of those regimes surviving to 2025. Democratization might not follow, and if it does, it won’t necessarily stick, at least not right away. Neither regime can really get a whole lot more authoritarian than it is now, however, so the possibilities for change on this dimension are nearly all on the upside. (The emergence of a new authoritarian regime that is more aggressive abroad is also possible in both cases, but that topic is beyond the scope of this memo.)

Talk about the possibility of a wave of democratic reversals usually centers on the role China or Russia might play as either an agent of de-democratization or example of an alternative future. As noted above, though, both of these systems are currently facing substantial stresses at home. These stresses both limit their ability to act as agents of de-democratization and take the shine off any example they might set.

In short, I think that talk of Russia and China’s negative influence on the global democratization trend is overblown. Apart from the (highly unlikely) invasion and successful occupation of other countries, I don’t think either of these governments has the ability to undo democratization elsewhere. Both can and do help some other authoritarian regimes survive, however, and this is why regime crisis or breakdown in either one of them has the potential to catalyze new clusters of regime instability in their respective neighborhoods.

What do you think? If you made it this far and have any (polite) reactions you’d like to share, please leave a comment.

In Praise of a Measured Response to the Ukraine Crisis

Russia Throws Cuba a Lifeline

China and Russia and What Could Have Happened

Early Results from a New Atrocities Early Warning System

How (Not?) To Win the Information War Over Ukraine

The Tragic Figure of Ambassador McFaul

The Quixote, er, Magnitsky Act Kicks In

The Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2012, a.k.a. the Magnistky Act, went live yesterday, when the U.S. government imposed visa bans and asset freezes on 18 Russian citizens, most of them government officials, over their alleged involvement in gross human-rights violations. Less than 24 hours later, the Russian government responded in kind, releasing its own list of American citizens who would be barred from entering its territory because they had been “implicated in human rights violations.”

I happen to think the Magnitsky Act is a mistake, a well-intentioned but quixotic and ultimately counterproductive attempt to express anger over the horrible things Russia’s sistema is doing to its own people.

If David Kramer and Lilia Shevtsova are right, then my frustration with the Magnitsky Act makes me a “staunch supporter of Kissingerian-style realpolitik.” Last December, Kramer and Shevtsova wrote a piece for The American Interest endorsing the act and laying out the case for its importance and potential effectiveness.  They acknowledge that the Act’s chief aim is to express certain values, to reject the “transactional” version of international politics in favor of a “normative” politics grounded in universal human rights. At the same time, they also argue that, “by limiting their external resources and hindering their elites’ personal integration into the West,” the act can have some practical effect on the durability of Russia’s authoritarian regime. For this “Magnitsky factor” to kick in, Kramer and Shevtsova acknowledge, the European Union will have to adopt similar measures, “since Europe is the main recipient of Russia’s corrupt exports.” Whether or not that will happen remains to be seen, and I’m dubious that it will.

Even if that doesn’t happen, though, Kramer and Shevtsova believe the Act is a good thing because it pushes international relations in the correct direction.

Incorporating the Magnitsky approach into the West’s foreign policy does make it more complex. The West will have to abandon its traditional methods and stereotypes and move on to a multi-step diplomacy that may not yield immediate results. But this is no loss: current Western diplomacy no longer involves strategic thinking. The West may boast of its tactical successes, but these come at the expense of strategic failures. The question is whether Western diplomacy will be able to move on to normative politics.

As they see it, diplomacy should serve above all else as an instrument for affirming and promoting liberal democratic values—which, they presumably believe, are self evident and universal. To promote these universal values, Western diplomats should stop cooperating with corrupt autocrats and should instead reach out directly to other countries’ citizens, who, they argue, would welcome the West’s overt repudiations of their corrupt elites.

For the life of me, though, I simply can’t understand how this “normative politics” is actually supposed to work. Politics is the name we’ve given to the process of people trying to work out how to get along in shared spaces with mutually desired but finite resources. If everyone agreed on what the proper means and ends are, we wouldn’t need the word.

When people in that shared space disagree about how to accomplish a shared objective or, more fundamentally, what the proper objectives are, there aren’t a whole lot of options. Basically, you’ve got coercion, persuasion, transaction, or failure to cooperate, which could mean either walking away or fighting. The U.S. and Russian governments bump into each other in many issue spaces, and they don’t always agree on proper ends and means in those spaces. For the U.S. government, coercing Russia isn’t really an option, and persuasion doesn’t always work, either. That leaves bargaining or failure, and between those two, I prefer the former.

Kramer and Shevtsova apparently believe that this kind of transactional politics is the antipode of normative politics, but I don’t think that’s so. Steven Spielberg’s recent retelling of the passage of the 13th Amendment in Lincoln nicely illustrates what I have in mind. I don’t know the history well enough to vouch for its authenticity, but in Spielberg’s account, Lincoln engages in several forms of normatively sketchy politics to accomplish his larger objective. As an experienced politician, Lincoln knows he can’t simply will his way to the world he desires, so he makes difficult choices that involve trade-offs between competing goals. In his push to abolish slavery, Lincoln doles out government jobs, twists the arms of fence-sitters, and even stalls on talks to end the horribly bloody war. He does these things in pursuit of an objective that is morally just but, in his mind, also has its own instrumental purposes. There simply is no purely righteous path, no cost-free choice.

I think world politics works the same way. To say, as Kramer and Shevtsova do, that Americans must chose between having our government punish corrupt Russian elites or letting those elites act with impunity is a false choice. Like all things political, the relationship between the U.S. and Russian governments involves many things, and that relationship is just one of many relationships in international politics. Instead of expecting our government to prioritize the promotion of certain values above all else, I would prefer to see that government flexibly pursue a wider array of objectives, because we know that’s what it will take to get at least some of those things done. I welcome efforts to shame Russian authorities for the terrors and indignities they inflict, and to help Russian citizens who want to organize in an attempt to transform their country’s politics. I just happen to think those efforts are better pursued by non-governmental organizations, or through international legal structures to which the Russian government has willingly acceded.

ISO Revolution, Organized Opposition Not Req’d

In a recent piece for Think Africa Press, freelancer Peter Dörrie surveys politics in Burkina Faso and concludes that the authoritarian elites who’ve held power there for the past 25 years are unlikely to let their grip slip before or by way of elections due in 2015.

The reason for this pessimistic view is simple. There is no opposition movement in Burkina Faso capable of harnessing the disillusionment and frustration of the general population. Most opposition leaders have either been co-opted by Compaoré at some point in their career or have proven themselves unable to rally significant support. Moreover, large parts of Burkinabé society still follow the judgements of their ‘traditional’ rulers who have essentially been bought by Compaoré with political and economic incentives. What remains of the political opposition is fractured and unwilling to cooperate.

I don’t want to pick on Dörrie, whose analysis is always thoughtful and well researched, and whose conjectures about Burkinabé politics sound reasonable to me. I do, however, want to use his piece as the jumping-off point for some ideas that have been rattling around in my head for a while about the relationship between organized oppositions and prospects for political revolutions.

Dörrie’s essay is hardly the first piece of political analysis in which I’ve seen the idea that an opposition needs to get organized before a revolution can occur.  Recently, it’s also popped up a lot in analysis of post-election protests in Russia and of the potential for radical change in China.

This idea makes sense in a Newtonian model of politics, in which causes must clearly precede effects and change is thought to unfold in distinct sequences that repeat themselves across many cases. As someone who’s probably made this argument myself at one time or another, I’d say the mental narrative goes something like this: By definition, revolutions occur when challengers topple rulers by extra-legal means. For that to happen, a challenger has to exist and be strong enough either to defeat the ruler’s defenders or to dissuade them from fighting back. In all but the weakest states, that kind of strength requires sustained, large-scale organization. Ergo, the odds of a revolution occurring are substantially lower in societies with disorganized oppositions than they are in ones with well-organized challengers, and the organization of a formidable opposition movement is an early milestone past which all revolutions must travel.

But what if the world doesn’t really work like that? Having watched a bunch of these things unfold in real time, I am now convinced that it’s more useful to understand revolutionary situations as an emergent property of complex systems. One of the features of complex systems is the possibility of threshold effects, in which seemingly small perturbations in some of the system’s elements suddenly produce large changes in others. The fragility of the system as a whole may be evident (and therefore partially predictable) from some aspects of its structure, but the timing of the revolutionary moment’s emergence and the specific form it will take will be impossible to anticipate with any precision.

In this version of politics, the emergence of rival organizations is as likely to be a consequence of the system’s failure as a cause of it. In fact, that particular cause/effect distinction might not make sense at all. When surveying authoritarian regimes to contemplate which ones are most susceptible to revolutions, we may be better off thinking of the development of new political organizations and the breakdown of old authority patterns as two aspects of a single, many-faceted process in which the former doesn’t have to precede the latter and sometimes even may not occur at all.

Looking at some of the cases from the so-called Arab Spring, I think it’s clear that authoritarian regimes rarely collapse in the tidy sequence our Newtonian models lead us to expect. In Tunisia, where Ben Ali’s regime had successfully suppressed the organization of any independent opposition for many years, politics swung from the routine to the revolutionary in a matter of days, and upstarts had to scramble to organize for elections after Ben Ali was already gone. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood had built itself into a large and capable organization in spite of a steady diet of state repression, but the Brotherhood played only a modest role in the unrest that led directly to Mubarak’s ouster, which probably could have happened without it. In Libya, a loose assemblage of local militias managed to topple and kill longtime ruler Moammar Ghaddafi with a helpful shove from foreign countries, but many of those militias only sprung up and got organized as the conflict intensified, and to this day they remain disorganized and even combative at the national level.

From this quick survey, we can tell that a linear and sequential mental model of authoritarian breakdown isn’t very useful for predicting or explaining what actually happens in many real-world cases. The presence of an uncooperative opposition that can get and stay organized in spite of state repression probably is a useful marker of some near-term potential for regime breakdown, but that doesn’t mean that the inverse is also true. In the non-Newtonian politics of the real world, we should not mistake the absence of a formidable opposition for a sign of the regime’s resilience, and we should sometimes expect to see new political machines scrambling to organize as or only after regimes fall apart, too.

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snow on ice

Get Out and Play

I remember just one other month since the COVID-19 pandemic started that it's been so essential to get out and play, for our physical and emotional wellbeing. So it's a lucky coincidence that October is a great time to get out and play in the Bow Valley and surrounding Canadian Rocky Mountains. It's possible to enjoy summer, fall or winter activities, depending on the day - or sometimes all on the same day!


5 steps for calling a guy out on his bad behaviour

calling a guy out for bad behaviour

Call-outs are a form of social critique that bring awareness to problematic behavior in order to create change. When someone calls someone else out on their bad behavior, it is done with the intention of making them better and for the greater good.

Calling a guy out on his bad behavior is not always easy. But it is an often-used tactic to prevent future incidents of the same nature. So how can you do it the right way?

How to call a guy out on his bad behavior?

1- Don’t be rude if you doubt his intentions:

When it comes to calling out bad behavior, we need to be careful not to do it in a way that might come across as rude or offensive. This is because the person being called out might not be aware of their behavior or may have been unaware of the impact of their actions.

In order to avoid this, we should try and build up trust with them before calling them out. Try to read their body language and see if they’re doing it purposefully or just as a joke or form of humor to make you laugh or befriend you.

We should also keep in mind that we don’t want to call someone out when they are not capable of understanding why their behavior is bad due to a vulnerability for example if they are struggling with mental health issues.

2- Don’t laugh at his bad jokes:

It’s important to know when it’s time to call a guy out on his bad behavior. It can be difficult but always remember that if you don’t, you are enabling him and giving him the opportunity to continue his behavior.

One thing to remember is that you don’t want to laugh or encourage him. It’s important that you remain calm and collected when addressing the issue. If he continues, then it’s time to walk away from the situation and speak with an authoritative figure of his about what happened.

The term “call out” has a negative connotation because it is often associated with shaming. However, the intention of calling someone out is not to make that person feel bad or embarrassed, but rather to bring attention to the issue in order to encourage a change in behavior. So what you can do instead is not take part in his little jokes and bullying.

Don’t laugh, roll your eyes, smile or show any signs that you’re tolerating his behavior or find it amusing. Simply verbalize the fact that it is not funny to you and even hurtful, with a straight face!

3- Tell him clearly how you feel:

It’s important not to feel embarrassed or ashamed of telling someone how you feel about their behavior towards you. That’s because that will make it harder for them to understand how it makes you feel and repeat it.

The idea is not to be harsh or mean but just to make sure that they know that what they did was not okay and help them understand why it was not okay. Another thing you should do is try and be direct. If he’s being rude, it’s best to just say something like: “I really don’t appreciate that. It makes me feel (express your feelings and why it hurts you).”

If he continues to be rude, the next step is to get more serious with your tone. For example, if he continues, say something like: “I think we’re done here.” and remove yourself from his presence.

4- Be strict and unforgiving:

You should not let a guy off the hook for his bad behavior. Instead, you should be firm in letting him know that you’re not going to tolerate it. Sometimes, you just need to be strict and unforgiving to get a message across. This can help you avoid any confusion or unnecessary conversations.

By being firm, you are not only sending a clear message but also letting him know that you will not accept his degrading or harmful actions.

5- Warn him about the possible consequences of his actions:

It is important to warn any guy that does something that makes you feel uncomfortable or unsafe about the possible consequences. As a final attempt at fixing things, you should take the time to explain what you could do in order to protect yourself from such actions.

For instance, warn him that you’ll stop seeing him altogether or talking to him if he’s someone that cares about you. Say you’ll stop acknowledging his existence at least, as long as he chooses childish rudeness over respecting your boundaries.

If he’s someone that’s not close to you, then you can warn him about being open to involving higher authorities or other people he respects to force him to stop.

If this guy is your partner then check out this article on what you should not accept in a relationship. And check this one out on the importance of setting boundaries in a relationship and how to do it!

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The Horticulture Center, located in picturesque Fairmount Park, is one of Philadelphia’s most well-loved cultural destinations.

Built in 1979 on the site of the former Horticultural Hall, an 1876 Centennial Exposition building, the Horticulture Center has curated a variety of awe-inspiring spaces that serve as the ideal setting for remarkable private celebrations, exceptional weddings, and one-of-a-kind corporate events.

Stunning event and entertainment spaces include a historic arboretum, an expansive open greenhouse, a modern exhibition hall, intimate indoor and outdoor gathering spaces, display gardens, a reflecting pool, and more.

Our exclusive on-site catering partner, Constellation Culinary Group, believes in the transformative power of food and its ability to add impact and memorability to any experience. To that end, their team crafts vibrant customized garden-inspired seasonal menus featuring the highest quality locally sourced ingredients available from regional growers and purveyors. A precise menu and service plan covers every detail to ensure a one-of-a-kind 360-degree sensory experience for you and your guests.


StockTwits Trending Alert: Trading recent interest in MATCH GROUP $MTCH

Quantcha now offering unlimited commission-free options trading.

Quantchabot has detected a promising Covered Put trade opportunity for MATCH GROUP (MTCH) for the 19-Jan-2024 expiration period. You can analyze the opportunity in depth over at the Quantcha Options Search Engine.

MTCH was recently trading at $79.02 and has an implied volatility of 48.70% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for MTCH expiring on 19-Jan-2024, there is a 31.80% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $43.35-$79.02 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 592.16%.

Trending on StockTwits: StockTwits® is a financial communications platform for the financial and investing community. On their site, MATCH GROUP was recently trending, indicating that breaking news and/or market activity has significantly impacted sentiment toward the stock. This movement can be interpretted as a sign of more near-term price movement for the underlying.

Trade approach: The recent sentiment change in MTCH on StockTwits appears to be significantly negative, indicating that the stock is likely to follow in that direction for investors trading on sentiment. As a result, a bearish strategy could prove effective if the sentiment ultimately turns out to drive trading.

Upside potential: Using this bearish strategy, the trade would be profitable if MATCH GROUP closed at or below $118.02 on 19-Jan-2024. Based on our analysis, there is a 71.58% likelihood of this return.


I want to make a GUI in which only those functions run whose radio button is on, but how to make it?

1 ビュー (過去 30 日間)
Jani 2021 年 12 月 3 日
編集済み: Yongjian Feng 2021 年 12 月 3 日
Suppose I have 5 differential equations, but I only want to run and plot those, whose radio button is set 'on', and it's important that
more radio button can be selected at once. Do you guys have an idea how to make it? Thank you in advance!

回答 (1 件)

Yongjian Feng
Yongjian Feng 2021 年 12 月 3 日
Radio buttons or checkboxes?
You can have a figure with multiple plots. Say if you have 10 checkboxes, then put 10 plots in the figure. All XData and YData set to empty, then none of them will be shown.
Once the user selects the checkbox/radio button, then you update the XData and YData of the corresponding plot to the data from the corresponding equation.
  2 件のコメント
Yongjian Feng
Yongjian Feng 2021 年 12 月 3 日
If you use CheckBox, a CheckBoxValueChanged callback function can be added to each checkbox. You can just right click on a CheckBox and select Callbacks->Add ValueChangedFcn callback from the Design View. A function like this will be automatically generated for a CheckBox:
function Showfunciton1CheckBoxValueChanged(app, event)
value = app.Showfunciton1CheckBox.Value;
By looking at the value, you shall be able to tell whether user selected or de-selected the checkbox.
Then you just need to show multiples plot using an UIAxes accordingly, following this link:

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Are there day tickets available?

Yes. Our ticket prices are:
Friday tickets: R150
Saturday tickets: R250
Sunday tickets: R250

Until when can I buy tickets online?

Online ticket sales stop on April 28 2022 at 17:00

Will I be able to purchase tickets at the gate?

Yes, between 10:00 and 22:00 you can purchase at the gate
(Friday – Sunday)

What are the gate check in times?

Gate times are 10:00 to 22:00, Friday to Sunday.

Can I bring my cooler box into the festival grounds?

Only weekend attendees are allowed to bring a cooler box in, given it remains at their campsite. Day attendees are NOT allowed to bring a cooler box in.

Can I bring my car into the festival grounds?

No, only festies camping at Kamp Oase can bring in one vehicle per stand. No cars allowed in by general campers.

There is an arranged shuttle that assists you from the entry gate to your chosen campsite spot with all your luggage.

When can I start camping?

Kamp Oase campers and general camping campers are allowed to set-up camp as early as Wednesday, April 27 2022, by prior arrangement. Contact Central Reservation to arrange.

[email protected] or 017 631 3452

When are we required to leave the festival grounds after the festival is finished?

Kamp Oase campers and general camping campers are allowed to stay until Tuesday, May 3, 2022. Festies staying in luxury accommodation are subject to hotel check-out times.

What does my weekend ticket include?

Access to the festival grounds, all the live shows, and general camping for the whole weekend.

Does my booked accommodation include my festival ticket?

Yes, your booked accommodation at Lake Umuzi (which includes The Merchant Hotel, Umuzi Lodge and/or InnGreen) includes your festival ticket.

Will there be food and drink stalls?

Yes, there are various food, drink and merchandise stalls located around the festival ground.

Can we braai/have open fire on the festival grounds?

Kamp Oase has designated braai stands, which allows for fire. However, general camping can only braai if they bring their own
portable braai.

No open fires allowed.


The King's Trial Book

novel - Fantasy

The King's Trial

Ongoing · 1.2K Views

Yushan's kingdom had gone down the drain under the influence of a shadow demon that had pulled the strings behind the human throne for centuries. An old servant, already tired by the injustice committed to the common people, set things in motion to protect the only prince who cared for them and to awaken the dragon god who will open the king's trial.

6 tags


Re: Using Macros in Lisp

Let's try not to go into style wars. I think each of you is right in some
points. You should avoid macros if you do not understand how they work, and
you should avoid macros that duplicate existing features (but I won't pretend
I am following these rules :-)
Now a question like "What are macros for?" is sure to generate a long dis-
cussion. I won't resist adding my few contributions:
- Macros are not made for inline expansion (a la C++). The performance gain
is not worth it.
- I use macros that expand into very simple expressions to "rename" things.
For instance I may define synonyms of first, second, ... to give a structure
to a list (this could be done with defstruct too).
- I use wrapper macros (traditionnaly named with-xx) that have a &body argument
and wrap it in a let and maybe an unwind-protect.
- I use "compiler macros", that in effect define a language and compile it
into a (hopefully) efficient Common Lisp form. This kind of macros generally
requires one or more auxillary functions, and a lot of coffee, but the result
is worth it (not to mention the personal satisfaction :-)
     Daniel Ranson


Hazardous Attitudes

Being fit to fly depends on more than just a pilot’s physical condition and recent experience. For example, attitude affects the quality of decisions. Attitude is a motivational predisposition to respond to people, situations, or events in a given manner. Studies have identified five hazardous attitudes that can interfere with the ability to make sound decisions and exercise authority properly: anti-authority, impulsivity, invulnerability, macho, and resignation.

Pilot in Command Responsibility

Remember that according to 91.3, we are responsible and the final authority as to the safe operation of the aircraft. And in order to avoid hazardous attitudes, we have to make sure we are fit and safe for flying. We can use the acronym listed below as a self-evaluation process to determine if we are safe to fly.


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Challenges Faced By Healthcare Administrators

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the healthcare industry is projected to grow by 18 percent from 2016 to 2026, much faster than the average growth for all professional occupations.

This growth is largely due to the aging population and advances in medical technology. As the healthcare industry grows, so does the demand for healthcare administrators.

Healthcare administrators face a variety of challenges in their work. This article will discuss some of the most common challenges faced by healthcare administrators and will offer some tips for overcoming these challenges.

The following are the most significant challenges faced by healthcare administrators:

Managing Costs

One of the biggest challenges faced by healthcare administrators is managing costs. Healthcare is expensive, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep costs under control. Administrators must find ways to reduce expenses while still providing high-quality care.

One way of managing costs is to optimize the use of resources. Administrators can start optimizing resources by streamlining processes and making sure that resources are used where they are needed.

Another way of managing costs is to seek out alternative sources of funding, such as private donations or grants.

Managing Personnel

Managing personnel is another challenge faced by healthcare administrators. Administrators must ensure that employees are properly trained and that they are working efficiently. They must also manage employee morale and ensure that everyone is working toward the same goals.

One way of managing personnel is by creating clear organizational charts, highlighting roles and tasks of each employee. This clear task delegation through organizational charts is going to ensure that everyone is aware of their responsibilities and goals.

Hospitals administrators are trained professionals at managing administration duties. They have a degree in Health Administration. But what is a MHA degree, and how does it help healthcare administrators?

An MHA degree is a Master in Health Administration that equips the administrators with the knowledge of how to run medical facilities and the duties they’ll be called upon to perform in administrative roles in medical facilities.

Staying Up-To-Date With Technology

Technology is constantly evolving, and healthcare administrators must stay up-to-date with the latest technological trends. They must also find ways to incorporate new technologies into the healthcare system.

One way of staying up-to-date with technology is to attend conferences and workshops. These events provide administrators with the opportunity to learn about new technologies and discuss industry best practices with other professionals. Administrators can also keep up-to-date with the evolutions in their profession by reading industry journals and blogs.

Dealing With Change

Change is a fact of life, and healthcare administrators must be prepared to deal with it. They must be able to adapt to changes in the healthcare system and find ways to improve the systems in the face of change.

One way to deal with change is to be proactive. Administrators should anticipate changes and plan for them ahead of time.

They should also develop a clear vision for the future of the healthcare system. Another way of dealing with change is to be flexible. Administrators should be willing to make changes when necessary and adapt to new situations.

Finally, administrators should be patient. Change does not happen overnight, and it can often take time to see results.

Maintaining Ethics

Healthcare administrators must always maintain the highest ethical standards. They must act with integrity and make sure that the needs of patients come first.

One way of maintaining ethics is to develop a code of conduct. This will provide administrators with guidelines for ethical behavior. Another way of maintaining ethics is to create a whistleblower policy. This will provide employees with a way to report unethical behavior.

However, the most important way of maintaining ethics is to lead by example. Administrators should always behave in an ethical manner and set the standard of behavior and ethics for others to follow.

Maintaining Patient Confidentiality

One of the most important responsibilities of healthcare administrators is to protect the privacy of their patients. They must ensure that patient information is kept confidential, and that it is not made public without the patient’s consent.

One way of securing patient confidentiality is by developing a privacy policy. The privacy policy will provide administrators with guidelines for protecting patient information.

Another way of maintaining patient confidentiality is by using encryption software. The software will protect patient information when it is stored or transmitted.

Finally, administrators should educate employees about the importance of confidentiality. Employees must understand that they must keep patient information confidential at all times.

Managing Finances

Managing the facility’s finances is one of the prime responsibilities of a healthcare administrator. The hospital administration has to make sure that the facility stays within budget and that funds are used appropriately.

One way of managing finances is by developing a financial plan. A solid and well thought of financial plan will provide administrators with a roadmap for financial spending.

Another way of managing finances would be too meticulous track expenses. Expense tracking will help administrators identify areas where funds could be saved.

Finally, administrators should review the facility’s financial statements regularly. This will help them stay informed about their financial status.

Managing Staff

Healthcare administrators have to constantly manage and deal with the medical staff. Among their many responsibilities is to ensure that the staff is working at their time and that they are not facing any problems in performing their duties.

One way of managing staff is by developing clearly defined job descriptions or JDs. The clear demarcation of the staff’s responsibilities will provide administrators with a blueprint for what each role is expected to do.

Another way of managing staff is to use performance reviews. These reviews help administrators assess the performance of each employee and identify areas for improvement.

Finally, administrators should provide training and development opportunities. This will help employees stay updated on the latest trends and technologies.

Bottom Line:

Healthcare administrators face a number of challenges. However, with the right skills and knowledge, they can overcome these challenges and improve the healthcare system. Healthcare administrators must have the competency to manage finances, staff, and must protect patient confidentiality. They must also be able to develop policies and procedures.

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The Twelfth Step: Carrying the Message

The twelfth step: carrying the message

When many of us think of recovery from addiction, we often picture sterile, clinical rehabs where one must live for the duration of treatment, which lasts 28 days, right? While addiction treatment centers are widely considered the premiere and most effective form of recovery treatment today, there are actually a wide variety of others. One in particular consists of the twelve-step recovery fellowships that have been immortalized with the expression: “Hello, my name is… and I’m an alcoholic.”

Alcoholics Anonymous was founded in 1935 in Akron, Ohio, by a man named Bill Wilson. Wilson was an alcoholic himself and had made the rounds in many of the treatment programs and support groups that existed at the time. One in particular—called the Oxford Group—was close to what he felt he needed, leading him to create his own, non-denominational methodology that would come to be known as the renowned twelve steps. By 1939, Wilson had begun helping hundreds of others overcome physical dependency and its emotional and spiritual effects, culminating in the publishing of Alcoholics Anonymous, which members of twelve-step groups colloquially refer to as “the Big Book” today.

The Big Book served as a sort of manual for Wilson’s twelve-step method, explaining what each of his twelve steps meant, how they could be worked, and the cumulative benefits afforded by working the twelve steps. Over the course of an individual’s progress through twelve-step recovery, he or she would achieve certain mental and emotional landmarks that would make physical recovery from alcoholism or drug addiction possible. This begins with the admission of one’s addiction and the unmanageability of the addicted lifestyle, continuing through the taking a personal inventory of one’s character defects and the making of amends to those who were wronged over the course of one’s addiction. The beauty of Wilson’s twelve steps is that each step builds upon the steps prior, allowing individuals to incrementally work their way to a place of lasting physical and spiritual recovery.

What is the twelfth step of alcoholics anonymous

Once an individual has worked steps One through eleven, he or she can begin step twelve. According to the Big Book, the twelfth step is as follows: “Having had a spiritual awakening as a result of [the twelve steps], we… carry this message this message to alcoholics, and… practice these principles in all our affairs.” The literature states that this final step of Alcoholics Anonymous is a focus on the joys of living as a sober individual. Having achieved a state of physical recovery—and, therefore, spiritual enlightenment—individuals are to begin giving of themselves to others in need, which is a type of giving that asks for no payment or rewards in return. In essence, individuals who have overcome alcoholism begin turning to others who are suffering from the disease of alcoholism or addiction in an effort to help them working through the twelve steps so that they can also achieve a state of physical and spiritual recovery.

Fellowshipping & the twelfth step

The Big Book suggests that the process of working through the twelve steps is analogous to a spiritual awakening. Wilson himself implied the spiritual connotations of twelve-step recovery when he was quoted as saying that alcoholism is an individual’s searching for meaning and fulfillment at the bottom of a bottle. Over the course of the twelve steps, an individual uses the Big Book as a sort of blueprint to achieving a spiritual awakening. By the twelfth step, individuals will have achieved their spiritual awakenings as an integral part of the recovery process and are able to begin helping others to achieve the same process. In essence, the twelfth step encourages fellowshipping by having its members help other alcoholics and addicts to work the twelve steps in order to overcome physical dependency and restore a sense of spiritual fulfillment.

In Alcoholics Anonymous, the majority of members work the twelve steps while under the tutelage of a what’s referred to as a sponsor. A sponsor is a fellow member of one’s twelve-step group who has worked the steps him or herself and, due to having this experience in working the twelve steps personally, can help newcomers to fully understand the gravity and work through each of the twelve steps. Being a sponsor is an incredibly important role in the twelve-step method because it’s a position that allows individuals to help others using the twelve-step method. Moreover, the Alcoholics Anonymous literature states that an individual who has worked the twelve steps will have acquired a high degree of honesty, tolerance, acceptance, humility, and consequently, an inner peace and strong sense of love of which he or she had thought him or herself incapable while in the throes of active addiction. Many of these traits are attained as a direct result of the spiritual awakening experienced during the twelve-step recovery process and is a gift that experienced members will want to give or share with others who are suffering, which is an important tenet of fellowshipping.

Why the twelfth step is an important part of recovery

The fellowshipping encouraged as part of the twelfth step is an important part of the recovery process for a number of reasons. One reason is that it gives individuals the sense that they are helping others and the pride and joy that comes from that; over the course of addiction, individuals often harm themselves and others, but the twelve steps are a means of helping individuals to reverse the negative effects of their addictions and begin to have a positive life while being a positive influence on others and the world around them. Additionally, having spent the preceding steps focusing inward on one’s own improvement and wellbeing, individuals turn their focus outward as part of the final step, becoming concerned with helping others who are suffering as they had suffered themselves. In short, the part fellowshipping plays is in not only helping others, but in actually wanting others to experience the peace and love of a spiritual awakening in recovery.

Find freedom in sobriety with the palm beach institute

There are many tools with which individuals can achieve recovery. However, Alcoholics Anonymous and its numerous derivative groups has remained one of the most well-known and effective recovery tools. If you or someone you love is suffering from alcoholism or addiction and would benefit from learning more about recovery, call the Palm Beach Institute at (866) 804-6507 or contact us online today for a free consultation and assessment. Let one of our recovery specialists help you or your loved one begin the journey to health, happiness, and freedom from the chains of addiction.

Tap to GET HELP NOW: (855) 960-5456


PlanB Consulting

Operational Resilience Development

Organisational resilience is about ensuring that your organisation will survive disasters, while trying to prevent them from happening in the first place.

Operational Resilience: how can we help?

PlanB Consulting can help organisations meet their FCA and PRA Operational Resilience regulatory requirements and “to prevent, adapt, respond to, recover and learn from disruptions”.
  1. Identify Business Services – PlanB has conducted hundreds of business impact analysis, let us help you identify your ‘important business services’ as required under the regulations. This may include working with your outsourced partners where they provide ‘important business services’.
  2. Map Supporting Resources – Let us use our experience in ‘Analysis’ to help you identify the resources which underpin the essential business services. We can provide specialist software for process mapping if required.
  3. Set Impact Tolerances – Let us show you how to define your Impact Tolerances for each essential business service. Each tolerance should consist of a specific outcome and a time frame.
  4. Define Appropriate Scenarios – PlanB Consulting can assist you to define ‘plausible but extreme’ scenarios. Our blog shows how we will define and frame the scenarios. The blog can be found here.
  5. Scenario Test – We have experience in writing, running and reporting on scenario tests for financial clients. During the exercise we will help you identify the impact of the scenario on business services and their supporting resources. We will also work with the exercise team to ascertain the scenario impact on their set impact tolerances and see if they were breached. PlanB understands the difference between ‘normal’ exercises and the exercises required for Operational Resilience.
  6. Improve Resilience – An outcome of the scenario test is identifying areas where the resilience of the organisation can be improved.

We have written several articles on Operational Resilience including “Writing Incident Scenarios: An Operational Resilience Trend Returns” and “Operational Resilience: Is it just business continuity done properly?”.

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Carpal Tunnel Syndrome

Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS), also known as median neuropathy, is a serious disease that affects the median nerve that runs from the wrist to the hand and fingers. The median nerve provides the major functions of the hand and fingers, such as picking up items and forming words. When nerves are damaged, they can become stiff and/or lose their sensitivity, which makes performing even the most basic functions difficult, if not impossible. When this happens, CTS can result, which often leads to the inability to perform fine movements of the hand and fingers.

Most chiropractors use chiropractic care to treat carpal tunnel syndrome, because chiropractic theory states that the body's health lies on its alignment through spinal alignment. Chiropractic treatment works by using manipulative therapy to correct misaligned spinal bones, which in turn helps to release the pressure on the nerves and restore proper nervous system functionality. Many chiropractors perform a series of tests during a chiropractic exam, and while a chiropractor cannot "put" the condition into the body, he/she can "tweak" the body so that the symptoms go away. If you feel as if your wrists and fingers are getting tight and your hand or arms are weak, then you should see a chiropractor about getting the pain relief that you need. A chiropractor will most likely use spinal manipulation techniques or a combination of spinal manipulation techniques to help correct your alignment and strengthen your body's core, which will allow your wrists to move more freely and easily, which will also alleviate the numbness or tingling sensations.

If you do not already have a chiropractor, then you should take some time to learn about chiropractic care, because chiropractors provide one of the most effective treatments for illnesses, including pain. A chiropractor will also likely recommend that you seek physical therapy, because the muscles of your body need to be able to function properly in order to combat your illness. Chiropractors also use massage therapy, which is often combined with spinal manipulation. Because chiropractic care is an alternative medicine practice, many people consider it a safer option than conventional medicine because chiropractic practitioners are not treating your disease. With this in mind, it is important that you discuss your illness and treatment options with your chiropractor before making a final appointment.

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