jim clyburn

The 2020 presidential candidate laid out the proposal along with Democratic House Whip James Clyburn.
The former vice president faced a torrent of criticism for comments this week. But some black voters in South Carolina are willing to let him off the hook — for now.
The 2020 Democratic candidate finds support from a key group of voters in a key state.
"If we effectively educate the public, then we will have done our job, and we can move on an impeachment vote, and it will stand,” Rep. James Clyburn said.
But the Vermont senator cautioned that the Senate is unlikely to convict President Donald Trump and oust him from office.
"This man and his family are the greatest threats to democracy of my lifetime,” the House majority whip said.
Meanwhile, there are two pending measures in the House to censure the representative from Iowa.
Archie Parnell nearly won a June special election in a Republican stronghold.
“People are watching this, people are engaged," said one congressman. "We’ve got to do our part.”
They didn't force a vote, but they really think the conversation is changing.
As I write this, a protest is occurring on the floor of the House of Representatives. Democrats, led by John Lewis, Jim Clyburn, Nancy Pelosi (and many others), are staging a "sit-in" to protest Republicans' refusal to even hold a vote on any gun control legislation.
Math. Path. Wrath. This has been the process through which Bernie Sanders' supporters travel. They don't get the math, so they continue to see his path, and if you disagree and speak to the realities of the campaign, you'll reap their wrath. And what's their main fuel? The super delegates.
Only one military college in the U.S. still flies the battle flag. Rep. Jim Clyburn wants to stop it.


Classic Ballet Giselle Meets Tinder at the Vancouver Playhouse

Image of Catherine Hurlin in @giselle. Photo by Craig Foster.

When Giselle, the classic ballet, was first performed in Paris in 1841, its choreographers, Jean Coralli and Jules Perrot, and composer, Adolphe Adam, probably never imagined how romance would be transformed nearly two centuries later.

The Vancouver Playhouse hosts the world premiere of a 21st century rendering of Giselle that explores how technology and social media have altered how love and relationships are formed, bloom, and sometimes come apart.

From September 5 to 7, 2019, Joshua Beamish/MOVETHECOMPANY’S @giselle will be performed at the Vancouver Playhouse (600 Hamilton Street). The work, directed and choreographed by Joshua Beamish, brings together dancers from a number of illustrious companies: The National Ballet of Canada, American Ballet Theatre, and Pennsylvania Ballet.

The performance takes as its starting point the classic ballet Giselle that tells the tragic tale of a peasant girl who falls in love with Albrecht, who is later revealed to be someone who duped her with deception and lies (he is already promised to someone else). Betrayed, Giselle dies of a broken heart, eventually resurrected by the Wilis, mystical feminine creatures who wish to exact revenge on Albrecht for his cruelty. Giselle must decide whether she wants to become another Wilis, or find it in herself to forgive Albrecht, thereby also deciding her own fate.

In Beamish’s reimagined work, betrayal continues to occur in 2019; however, technology now aids in the covering over of the truth. This updated version, @giselle, focuses on a woman who loses her lover and is ghosted over social media. Her death and resurrection, in this case, happen through digital channels, blurring the line between what is real and what is virtual. The technology that worked against her also provides a platform for her to disseminate her situation, as well as have a certain ghostly immortality.

With Brianna Amore on animation and projection design, the production will incorporate motion capture technology and projected social media imagery in order to locate the characters, as well as the audience, in the confusion and alienation of contemporary communication. As the dancers and the fragmented media appear on stage, @giselle asks viewers to consider how new technologies both bring people together, as well as reinforce their isolation. How can these media platforms be vehicles for power abuses, similar to what nobleman Albrecht performs on a peasant girl in the original ballet?

Expect powerful and technically impressive performances by the ensemble, which includes Catherine Hurlin and Stephanie Williams as Giselle (as alternates), Harrison James as Albrecht, and Sterling Baca as Hilarian.

Tickets are $35-$99 (plus applicable taxes). There is a Jean Orr Tribute Performance & Celebration September 5, 2019, with limited VIP tickets (includes top tier seating, meet-and-greets with cast members, a tribute presentation, and refreshments) for $199 (plus applicable taxes). Jean Orr was Canada’s first Giselle, and is celebrating her 90th birthday.

Further info and tickets can be found on-line.

Say Your Piece

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What Is the Dividend-Adjusted Return?

The dividend-adjusted return is a calculation of a stock's return that relies not only on capital appreciation but also the dividends that shareholders receive. This adjustment provides investors with a more accurate evaluation of the return of an income-producing security over a specified holding period.

Dividend-Adjusted Return Explained

An investor may begin calculating a simple return by taking the difference in market price and purchase price and dividing this by the purchase price. For example, say an investor purchases a share of Amazon (AMZN) on January 1, 2018, for $1,172.00 and sells it on July 11, 2018, for $1,755.00. The simple return would be ($1,755.00 - $1,172.00) / 1,172.00 = 49.74%. While Amazon does not presently pay dividends, if it did issue a $0.50/share quarterly dividend, and the investor received two distributions during the six months he held the stock, he could adjust his return by adding these to the sale price. His dividend-adjusted return would be ($1,756.00 - $1,172.00) / 1,172.00 = 49.83%.

Total return is a similar calculation, taking into account both the changes in market value and streams of income, expressed as a percentage (i.e., divided by the share price).

The dividend-adjusted close or adjusted closing price is another useful data point that takes into account any distributions or corporate actions that occurred between the previous day’s closing price and the next day’s opening price. The company’s price could shift, due to a stock split, for example. In a traditional stock split, a company divides its existing shares into multiple shares to boost liquidity. The most common split ratios are 2-for-1 or 3-for-1. This means that a stockholder will have two or three shares, respectively, for each share she or he previously held.

Dividend-Adjusted Return and Additional Return Calculations

There are many ways to calculate returns on securities, with the dividend-adjusted return and total return being just two helpful ways for those that pay dividends. The average return is the sum of a series of returns over certain time periods, divided by the total data points in the set. (Analysts may use the geometric mean return, time-weighted return, or money-weighted return for a more accurate figure.)

Return on assets (ROA), return on investment (ROI), and return on equity (ROE) are three popular return calculations, often used when conducting fundamental analysis on a company.


Tenants in England are living in homes with hazards that could put their health at risk, such as mould, or far more dangerous problems like missing smoke and carbon monoxide alarms.

That's according to research from housing charity Shelter, which found nearly a third of tenants (32%) said their house did not have a carbon monoxide alarm despite requiring one.

Polly Neate, chief executive of Shelter, said: "It is truly alarming that so many private renters are living in homes which aren't up to scratch and compromise their safety. A safe home is a basic standard that every renter has the right to expect.

"But if landlords don't follow these rules, renters should be armed with the power to challenge their poor behaviour."

Not the only problems

Is your home up to scratch?

As well as missing smoke detectors, three-fifths of renters (60%) said there had been disrepair in their home in the past two years that was not caused by them and their landlord was responsible for fixing.

One in six (15%) said the disrepair was a major threat to their health and safety.

In a survey of landlords, Citizens Advice found a quarter of them failed to make sure there is a smoke alarm on each floor of all of their properties.

A similar proportion failed to carry out an annual gas safety check or make sure that smoke and carbon monoxide alarms were working.

When asked why, some 31% of landlords said they found it had to keep up with rules and regulations.

Many were also unaware of their risks, with almost half (49%) not knowing they faced a fine of up to £5,000 for not checking smoke and carbon monoxide alarms are in working order on the first day of the tenancy.

Gillian Guy, chief executive of Citizens Advice, said: "Too many private renters live in hazardous homes - often with potentially fatal flaws.

"The Government must establish a national housing body to ensure landlords let property that meet legal standards, and gives renters the support they need when they don't."

Citizens Advice wants a national housing body for private renting to set standards, which could include creating a home "MOT", setting a "fit-and-proper-person" test for landlords and standardising rental contracts.

Minister for housing and homelessness Heather Wheeler said: "This Government is committed to cracking down on the small minority of landlords who are not giving tenants safe and secure places to live.

"We have given councils strong powers to make sure that when a property contains potentially serious health and safety risks, landlords must take immediate action."


the petite dancer

United States
29° 41' 1.3092" N, 95° 25' 50.2104" W

twirling, spinning

she’s a music box come alive

flowing, spiraling

she’s immaculate

skirting across the room

charming the critical audience

her blush-colored skirt

trimming her narrow waist

fits her like a piece of art

hair twisted on the top of her head

no stray hair escaping

ballet slippers

the one tarnished piece

of her ensemble

gliding across the studio canvas

admirers send their congratulations

and judges abrasively rate her performance

she accepts her fate

graciously bowing to scoop

the fuchsia roses littering the tile

at the closing of the production

she has eyes for one

and when hers meets his

the routine drops

the key unwinds

and she lets go of the breath

she was holding in

Need to talk?


Israeli vulture 'spy' detained

The Saudi Arabian authorities have ‘detained’ a vulture on suspicion that he’s an Israeli spy.

In December, the governor of Egypt’s South Sinai province, Mohamed Abdul Fadil Shousha, suggested that the Israeli’s also had a hand in a string of deadly shark attacks off the coast of the Sharm el-Sheikh resort.

Is it sun stroke or what?


Back to All Events

Your Yoga, Your Body - A Comparative Anatomy Workshop with Machelle Lee

Saturday, September 7th 1-6pm

Sunday, September 8th 1-6pm

Harshly judging body range of motion is one of the greatest sources of unnecessary suffering in most people’s yoga practice. Although some challenges in postures are related to tight muscles and more is related to contracted fascia and ligaments- many significant limitations are actually due to variations in bone shapes and joint orientations that can differ dramatically from one person to the next. Understanding YOUR yoga anatomy is best learned through direct hands on experience - testing your bones/joints and witnessing them curiously and compassionately to the bones of others.

This comparative anatomy workshop explores major joints of the body that account for most of our yoga postures. For each joint intersection, we will perform bone range of motion tests on ourselves and on each other and then demonstrate how each varying joint will express itself in specific yoga postures.

Anatomy is a vast subject, but this playful, interactive workshop reveals the basics in a way that clarifies and simplifies the yoga practice - putting the attention back where it belongs - how the key action of each pose makes you FEEL and moves the life force. In this workshop, participants often experience an “ah-ha” moment about their body and their practice, which can be powerfully liberating and self-accepting.

This workshop is great for beginners and experienced practitioners alike!

6 hours of CEUs available

6 hours of CEUs available

General Cost: $100 : if you are taking this as a yoga student or teacher and are not looking for/requesting Continuing Education Credits (CEUs)

CEU Cost: $130 if you are a registered yoga teacher and are requesting CEU documentation for Yoga Alliance

Wondering why this training is priced so low? These explorations are even more meaningful when we have a greater number/variety of people to compare bones with so I have priced this to make it accessible for more people to attend.

Machelle Lee, MA, E-RYT 500, CMT, YACEP, Roots & River Yoga Founder and Instructor

Machelle has 26 years of experience as a yoga teacher, massage therapist, and childbirth educator. She holds a Masters Degree in Depth Psychology with an emphasis in Mythology from Pacifica Graduate Institute and 300 certification in yoga psychology. Machelle leads therapeutic movement through Vinyasa Yoga and Yin Yoga and offers lectures on comparative anatomy in a way that weaves together yogic teachings with modern scientific research on tissue rehabilitation, traditional medicines, and psychology. This approach to the whole person aids one in feeling and understanding the bodymind connection both somatically and intellectually. Specializing in the health and rehabilitation of fascia, connective tissues, and joints, Machelle is committed to serving students in a way that best fits their unique abilities and anatomic structure. Machelle combines storytelling, archetypes, poetry, anatomy, neuroscience, psychology, and Five Element Meridian Theory across a variety of yoga styles in a way that is always aimed at facilitating a creative and grounded approach to self-development for each participant.


Amanda Loeffen, Director General of WaterLex speaking to parliamentarians about the importance of their role in SDG6 implementation, Budapest. Central and Eastern Europe is a region of contrasts with some countries really ahead of the game with the recent introduction of water laws embracing the human right to water and sanitation (e.g. Slovenia), but the average access to improved water supply still remains surprisingly low (14 million people without access) and sanitation even worse (62 million, ref. WHO 2015). Parliamentarians are in a unique position to support the drafting of national laws that support SDG6 (the sustainable development goal on water); encourage the provision of adequate budgets and also to enhance the awareness of their countries obligation to support the sustainable development goals. Approaching the goals on a regional basis, as supported by the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), allows for sharing of ideas and a collective approach towards implementation. This regional seminar was a chance for countries in the region to start engaging. As stated by the president of IPU, Saber Chowdhury, there are only 13 years left to achieve the SDGs by 2030, so there is much work to do.

Amanda Loeffen @ IPU Budapest

IPU Budapest

Laszlo Kover presenting @ IPU Budapest


BODY,.aolmailheader {font-size:10pt; color:black; font-family:Arial;} a.aolmailheader:link {color:blue; text-decoration:underline; font-weight:normal;} a.aolmailheader:visited {color:magenta; text-decoration:underline; font-weight:normal;} a.aolmailheader:active {color:blue; text-decoration:underline; font-weight:normal;} a.aolmailheader:hover {color:blue; text-decoration:underline; font-weight:normal;} What is your name: Rob Servo

Do you have a formal art education or are you a self taught artist: I have an undergraduate degree in Art Education from Nazareth College, and a MFA from the University at Albany.

What is the style of your pieces: I create narrative paintings on asymmetrical panels. The imagery tends to have an illustrative or graffiti feel to it.

What is the medium in which you work: I am a mixed media painter. An average piece of mine usually includes a combination of oil and acrylic paint, cut paper, colored pencil,
LEDs, glass and foam.

What started you on your path as an artist:I grew up around art. My father’s parents were both painters and Pratt graduates from Brooklyn. I knew for sure after undergrad that I wanted to seriously pursue painting. After a short stint of teaching I realized I felt unfulfilled when I was not making work.

What is one of the most important things that art has brought to your life: Friends, confidence and experiences that push me to keep making work.

What is your favorite genre of art besides the one you work in: Magic realist painters and cinema.

Do you have art showings, and if so what are they typically like: I usually am in one or two shows a month. It has been all over the place lately from art fairs and galleries, to one night shows at bars and clubs.

Do you have a certain set of clothes you make art in: Not really I am a fairly neat painter. I don’t paint in a suit.

What has been the most frustrating part of being an artist? Trying to live up to the expectations I set up for myself, and dealing with where I fall short.

What is your favorite sandwich of all time: Parmesan, onion, avocado, pesto, and tomato on a toasted bagel.

I have started installing some of my grandfather’s old tools and new types of plastics into my panels to add depth, as well as different textures and colors.

Who is your favorite artist alive or dead: I would say Francis Bacon or Donald Roller Wilson.

What is the most moving piece of artwork that you have seen in person:Garden of Earthly Delights by Hieronymus Bosch

Do you have any animals, and what do they think of your work: No animals right now. I grew up around cats, but they were more interested in my guitar playing than my paintings.

Do you have any upcoming exhibitions you would like to share with us: Bushwick Open studios at Brooklyn Fire proof June 4-6. Convergence art fair NYC, at 68th Lexington Ave. Armory in August. Fountain Art Fair in Miami in December.

If you are an artist and would like to be featured email sivy221@aol.com

Pin It on Pinterest


Feudal system essay

feudal system essay

with their spears, lances, and sabres. Land was later-on rented in exchange for money and the rights of lords over labor decreased. The political state of Greece, in its early history, was the same as that of Europe, when divided, by the feudal system, into an infinite number of small and independent kingdoms. Now will any person assert, on comparing the whole of those circumstances together, which relate to their respective punishments, that there can be any doubt, which of the two are in the worst situation, as to their penal systems? Challenges to the feudal model edit In 1974,.S. These voracious fish were supposed to have followed the vessels from the coast of Africa, in which ten thousand slaves were imported in that one season, being allured by the stench, and daily fed by the dead carcasses thrown overboard on the voyage.

Apology essay for stealing, Advantages of co curricular activities essay, Idea math essays,

Indeed nothing is more contrary to experience than this. Although some contemporaries questioned Reynolds's methodology, other historians have supported it and her argument. The same custom prevailed among the people of the West; for as the Helots became the slaves of the Spartans, from the right of conquest only, so prisoners of war were reduced to the same situation by the rest of the inhabitants of Greece. We come now to the grand question, which is, that if mankind were originally of this or any other colour, how came it to pass, that they should wear so various an appearance? Suppose we should now shew, upon the most undeniable evidence, that those of Edition: current; Page: 181 the wretched Africans, who are singled out as inheriting the curse, are the descendants Edition: current; Page: 182 of Cush or Phut; and that we should shew farther.

The Transition From Feudalism To Capitalism In Europe

feudal system essay


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Roof Repairs - Tillotson Enterprises Roof Repairs - Tillotson Enterprises

Roof Repairs

Roof repairs are not intended to return a roof back to a new condition, but repairing a roof will help extend the time interval between roof replacements.  Roof repairs should be made if the repairs can prevent, reduce or eliminate water from entering into the roof system.  There are usually two reasons for performing repairs:

  1. A leaky roof needs immediate attention in order to prevent damage to insulation, flooring, walls, etc.
  2. Preventive repairs, being proactive versa reactive, will extend the life cycle of a roofing system. A roof inspection is how you find issues which can be repaired to prevent future issues.

There are limitations to the repairs which can be made to a leaky roof.  Most leaks can be traced to penetrations and flashing (vents, stacks, AC, etc.).  Leaks can be difficult to find and sometimes more than one attempt may be necessary to solve the leak.  If more than two attempts are made and water is still coming in, the roof will then be water tested to try to pinpoint the source of the leak.  The cost of water testing a roof may be a billable expense along with the cost of the third repair.

Repairs are not considered a warranty or a “leak-free fix”, however, if the repair does not fix the leak within a 90-day period, there is a product defect or an obvious flaw in workmanship, the repair will not be charged to the client.

Condensation can appear to look like a leak in a roof system, especially after an active leak is fixed. Wet insulation from the leak area can remain wet and therefore the roof deck in this area may not be properly insulated.  During periods when the temperature is cold and then warms up or there is a period of high humidity condensation is created.  This is especially true with metal roof decking where the insulation has a vapor retarder on the insulation. If condensation is determined to be the cause of the ongoing leak, the wet insulation will need to be removed and replaced to solve this condensation problem.  Condensation can be determined by exposing the decking to look for water droplets or as some call them, “sweat beads”, similar to what you see on a cold glass on a warm, humid summer day.

Finally, in certain cases, such as repairs on metal roofs around skylights, hoods, stacks, etc. where water sits or ice and snow builds up, more frequent repairs might be required or a more costly repair advisable.


One of the features of the way the WORLDREP project is designed is that much of our activity related to the project will do double (or even triple) duty. When we create content for our website we'll be promoting the WORLDREP opportunity to potential students but we'll also be generating a rich source of information about our project. That information, about the challenges we've faced as well as our accomplishments, will feed into future project and curriculum development and will also contribute to our ongoing research into what it means to internationalise the curriculum (and each other).


State oil and gas company PGN (PGAS) reported relatively stronger quarter, but not enough to prevent 53% fall in net profit to US$143.15 million for full year 2017. While the stock has recorded 75% from its low, it is still below peak (52 weeks) due to some pending issues, including consolidation with Pertamina.To subscribe please click here


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Statistics > Methodology

Title:Who Learns Better Bayesian Network Structures: Constraint-Based, Score-based or Hybrid Algorithms?

Abstract: The literature groups algorithms to learn the structure of Bayesian networks from data in three separate classes: constraint-based algorithms, which use conditional independence tests to learn the dependence structure of the data; score-based algorithms, which use goodness-of-fit scores as objective functions to maximise; and hybrid algorithms that combine both approaches. Famously, Cowell (2001) showed that algorithms in the first two classes learn the same structures when the topological ordering of the network is known and we use entropy to assess conditional independence and goodness of fit.
In this paper we address the complementary question: how do these classes of algorithms perform outside of the assumptions above? We approach this question by recognising that structure learning is defined by the combination of a statistical criterion and an algorithm that determines how the criterion is applied to the data. Removing the confounding effect of different choices for the statistical criterion, we find using both simulated and real-world data that constraint-based algorithms do not appear to be more efficient or more sensitive to errors than score-based algorithms; and that hybrid algorithms are not faster or more accurate than constraint-based algorithms. This suggests that commonly held beliefs on structure learning in the literature are strongly influenced by the choice of particular statistical criteria rather than just properties of the algorithms themselves.
Comments: 12 pages, 5 figures
Subjects: Methodology (stat.ME); Machine Learning (stat.ML)
Journal reference: Journal of Machine Learning Research (72, Proceedings Track, PGM 2018), 416-427
Cite as: arXiv:1805.11908 [stat.ME]
  (or arXiv:1805.11908v2 [stat.ME] for this version)

Submission history

From: Marco Scutari [view email]
[v1] Wed, 30 May 2018 11:42:44 UTC (1,907 KB)
[v2] Wed, 1 Aug 2018 10:00:45 UTC (1,963 KB)
[v3] Wed, 31 Jul 2019 14:36:11 UTC (4,965 KB)


It's one chunk of the day when you can generally expect to be able to plug away without interruption (at least not from your child). Whether your kid sleeps for one hour or three, use this time to finish assignments that require your complete focus and concentration, says Erin O'Donnell, a mom of two and freelance writer and editor in Milwaukee, who often schedules work-related phone calls during her 20-month-old Jonas's naps. If for some reason he isn't tired, they have quiet time instead: O'Donnell puts him in his crib with books and closes the door. "I can usually get in 20 minutes of work before he grows restless," she says. If Jonas wakes up while she's on a work call and begins crying, O'Donnell has trained herself to resist hanging up and rushing right in to check on him. "It hurts a little bit to listen to him," she says. "But it won't kill me -- or him." Plus, she believes it's important for him to learn how to soothe himself.
Digital entrepreneurship is a subjective form of creation. It is an art in and of itself that combines some different techniques and art form to create a digital product. Some digital assets are simple, such as an audio file that is produced for a podcast, while others are more complex, such as a website that is created from some different elements.
Brian Clark: Yeah, that’s the working definition. I think it’s pretty solid. That doesn’t stop us from exploring hybrid situations or maybe expanding the definition as things change, but it actually is fundamentally sound. Any definition broader than that is really just stepping over into other terminology that we have had for decades, like e-commerce.
Once you’ve established the fundamentals of technology entrepreneurship  you are guided through how to sell, market and scale your new technology startup. NovoEd has recently teamed up with the prestigious Babson Global Entrepreneurship program to offer a whole range of entrepreneurship-focused courses. I highly recommend browsing the NovoEd website for their other entrepreneurship course offerings.
Online marketing can be accomplished by any person with general sales knowledge. To start you should consider 8 key questions (What? When? Where? Why? Who? Which? How? And How Much?) historically used by many philosophers, journalist, and even children in grade school learning a language. The key to marketing is first understanding the situation and context of what you wish to market.


The major arcana of The Crux Tarot is unlabeled. The only specific identification of these cards is in the roman numerals on each card.

In creating this deck I set out to rename the majors in a way that I felt was clearer about the crux of each card. I feel these new titles explore the meanings of the majors in interesting ways, and connect them all within the deck’s theme of challenging oneself to read with a more open, inclusive mindset.

The titles do not appear on the cards, however, because I firmly believe that this will strengthen our connection to the symbolism and imagery presented. As you explore this deck, looking up the majors will reveal the title, and allow you to see the card from a new perspective.

Not putting the titles on the cards also gives the reader a choice. If you connect strongly with a traditional title, or any other way of knowing a specific card, you are free to call it by that name. So if the third major feels like an Empress to you, they are an Empress. If the twelfth card feels like The Hanged One, the sixteenth a Blasted Tower, by all means, know them by that name. The naming system presented is meant to be an exploration of the cards, not a prescription of thought. Allow your intuition to guide you to the title that best fits the card when reading with The Crux Tarot.


Words used by children and their primary caregivers for private body parts and functions

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BackgroundEffective patient–physician communication requires the use of words that are clearly understood by both parties. We conducted this study to compile a list of words used by children and caregivers to describe “private” anatomical structures and physiological functions, to document the frequency of such usage and to examine the relation between correct word usage and caregiver's level of education.MethodsIn a large urban pediatric emergency department, a convenience sample of 156 children at least 3 years old were asked to name the body parts (penis, testes, vagina, buttocks, breasts) pointed to in 4 simple, explicit line drawings of an unclothed boy or girl, and to name the bodily functions (vomiting, defecation, urination) depicted in 3 drawings of children. Eighty-seven patients sufficiently fluent in English were included in the study. Their caregivers were asked separately what words they currently use with their child and with other adults for these body parts and functions and what words they remembered using as children.ResultsThe children used a mean of 1.2 correct anatomical and physiological terms out of a possible 8 to describe the private parts and functions in the drawings. The mean number of correct words used by the caregivers was 2.3 when talking with their children, 3.6 when talking with their peers and 1.5 when they were children. There was no correlation between the caregiver's level of education and the frequency of correct word usage by their children. We identified slang words used by at least 5% of the respondents; however, some used the same slang words to refer to different body parts.InterpretationGiven the variety of slang words used by children and their caregivers to describe private parts and functions, the meaning of the words should be clarified during history taking.

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Why do what you think should happen, not be in line with what really happens? If there is a question or comment, would a request for your input be out of line?

The constant need to keep the positive thoughts in play can be a source of a letdown as the setbacks to arouse somewhat of a doubt.

If there is an answer, where would you go to find it? With each step, is there anything to learn? Step 4 of 4

f by chance you would have the need to be released to a Medical Rehab and Nursing center, your chances of living one year would be 10%.


SNOPES throws in the towel with Facebook “fact checking” after being caught fabricating LIES and covering for fake news media

(Natural News) Snopes has announced that it is giving up “fact checking” for Facebook as controversy swirls over its handling of the Nathan Phillips case and other high-profile blunders.

Of course, that’s not the official reason they’re throwing in the towel. In a statement, they cited limited resources as their primary motivation, saying that manually flagging false info was simply too big of a task for its team of 16 people.

The site partnered with Facebook in December 2016 on the pretense of cracking down on fake news like that seen during the presidential election of that year; they made $100,000 for their efforts last year. Facebook uses Snopes’ fact checks to change how its algorithm presents stories to users.

Two former workers of Snopes, ex-Managing Editor Brooke Binkowski and ex-Fact Checker Kim La Capria, told The Guardian that they got the impression the company did not care about its fact checking partners.

Binkowski said: “They’ve essentially used us for crisis PR. They’re not taking anything seriously. They are more interested in making themselves look good and passing the buck… They clearly don’t care.”

String of high-profile incidents highlights incompetence of “fact checkers”

Snopes has been caught in a few unflattering incidents recently. In one high-profile case, they blatantly lied about an American Indian activist named Nathan Phillips. Phillips was thrust in the spotlight after a confrontation between himself and some high school boys went viral. It was said that the boys mobbed him and harassed him when he tried to leave the Indigenous People’s March, even though video evidence shows otherwise.

Some media outlets reported that the man was a Vietnam veteran, but military records proved he was never deployed to Vietnam. Yet somehow Snopes’ team of fact checkers decided to label the idea of Philips falsely claiming to be a Vietnam vet as “unproven.” Even when video evidence proved that Phillips was the instigator of the confrontation, beyond a doubt, they still refused to change their stance.

They also botched a fact check of a viral meme depicting a picture of President Trump surrounded by lawmakers and others in his administration after the House voted to repeal Obamacare. In the photo, a red X is stamped across 33 people, along with a caption saying, “Everyone with an X has since been voted out of Congress.” The photo, which was shared by a former campaign staffer for Hillary Clinton, was immediately mocked, with Politico’s Jake Sherman calling it “more incorrect than correct.”

Even though the Clinton staffer ultimately acknowledged its inaccuracy, a Snopes fact checker somehow reached the conclusion that it was “true.” The truth is that not everyone with an X was a lawmaker to begin with, but many of those who did have the X on their face did, in fact, win re-election after all.

On another occasion, they labeled a story by a Christian satire site “false” despite it being an obvious joke; the piece was in the style of The Onion and talked about CNNpurchasing washing machines to spin the news. This prompted Facebook to threaten the site by reducing its distribution and removing its ability to monetize and advertise.

Snopes was caught lying and helping cover for fake news media several times, but they’re not the only ones jumping ship at Facebook. The AP, another fact-checking partner of Facebook, is also reportedly pulling out, with the firm confirming it has stopped checking articles and its future relationship is up in the air.

See for more news about Snopes.

Sources for this article include:


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Posts Tagged ‘Vril Society’

German Secret Societies and Nazis

Adolf Hitler’s control over Nazi Germany was strictly limited when it came to developing super weapons from highly advanced technologies found by secret societies, which explored the world to locate and develop technologies that could easily have changed the course of the Second World War.

In the latest episode of Cosmic Disclosure, secret space program whistleblower, Corey Goode, describes more of what he read on “smart glass pads” containing classified information he was given access to during his 20 year service. He discloses extensive world-wide expeditions conducted by German secret societies to find advanced technologies built either by ancient human civilizations or by extraterrestrial visitors.

Goode claims that knowledge of these advanced technologies was concentrated in the Himalayan regions of India, China and Tibet. German secret societies, and later the Nazi SS, sent expeditions to these regions where they found ancient scrolls and books, and relocated these back to Germany along with some of the local monks and scribes who could interpret them.

These expeditions began immediately after the First World War, and peaked in the 1930’s when Hitler’s Nazi Party came to power, according to Goode. He describes the Thule, Vril and “Black Sun” as the main German secret societies involved in these expeditions.

While there is extensive literature about the role of the Thule Society in Hitler’s rise to power, there is less known about the Vril and “Black Sun” (German Schwarze Sonne) societies. The Thule Society was created on August 17, 1918, and the Vril Society formed soon after as an off-shoot. The latter was formed by female mediums who used their psychic skills for communication with ancient subterranean or extraterrestrial civilizations.

In his book, The Black Sun: Montauk’s Nazi-Tibetan Connection, Peter Moon describes that Black Sun society as comprising leading figures from Heinrich Himmler’s SS.

According to Goode, the Black Sun society cooperated closely with the Thule, Vril and other secret societies in forming the breakaway German faction in Antarctica and South America. The implication is that while the Black Sun society was formally linked to Himmler’s SS, its primary loyalty was to the Thule, Vril and other secret societies.

This leads to a fascinating conclusion. Himmler believed that the SS Black Sun society had successfully infiltrated the German secret societies, and would share  the secrets of the latter’s advanced space and technology programs underway in Antarctica and South America. This led to Himmler’s and Hitler’s firm belief that superweapons would eventually be developed and released in time to win the war. Instead, a decision had probably been made by the Thule, Vril and other secret societies to sacrifice Hitler’s Nazi regime, and the Black Sun did not pass on the technologies.

In the book, Insiders Reveal Secret Space Programs and Extraterrestrial Alliances, evidence is presented that the first antigravity space craft were built by the Vril Society with the support of wealthy Thule Society members, and later official Nazi support. Evidence is presented that Vril flying saucer prototypes were actually found in Germany and relocated to the U.S.

Contrary to conventional historical scholarship that Hitler was Nazi Germany’s absolute ruler, Goode paints a very different picture based on what he read on “smart glass pads”. Real power was concentrated in the hands of the German secret societies who decided what technologies would be released for the Nazi war effort.

As the Second World War unfolded with increasing Nazi defeats, Goode claims that the German secret societies were not interested in helping Hitler reverse the tide of the war:

I think that there were [some] technologies acquired and integrated into their breakaway secret space program that they were developing. But they were developing this for their own [purposes] when it came down to it, they didn’t care about [Germany winning] World War II, the motherland, [or] using this technology to defeat the United States and the enemies they were engaged in war with.

While Nazi Germany did pursue advanced weapons programs based on what Himmler’s SS had discovered, the most advanced technologies were kept from Hitler and taken to remote locations in South America and Antarctica.

In these remote locations, well away from the widespread destruction occurring in Europe, the German secret societies were free to develop a parallel technology program to that being desperately pursued by the Nazi SS. The secret societies built highly advanced space craft and weapons technologies, and kept these well away from Hitler’s knowledge or control.

From 1939, when the first Antarctica base was officially established by Nazi Germany, secret societies repatriated the most talented scientists to build a breakaway German faction. Goode describes three bases built at locations that had earlier been used by an ancient subterranean civilization that were helping the German secret societies. The building program continued throughout the war, and accelerated with the looming defeat of Nazi Germany.

When Admiral Byrd reached Antarctica in January 1947, he encountered the breakaway German secret societies, whose technologies were far more advanced than those possessed by Himmler’s SS, which had just been defeated. The U.S. Navy suffered a stunning defeat at the hands of the breakaway German faction.

There is solid historical evidence supporting Goode’s incredible claims. It is known that the Nazi SS had a research group called the Ahnenerbe (German for “inherited from the forefathers”) that did indeed conduct expeditions to Tibet, Peru and elsewhere in search of ancient knowledge and technologies. The Nazi SS Ahnenerbe could well have been the research umbrella for the German secret societies described by Goode.

German Expedition to Tibet was a scientific expedition from May 1938 to August 1939, led by German zoologist and SS officer Ernst Schäfer.

Also, it is known that the Thule Society was the sponsor of the German Worker’s Party that was the predecessor to the Nazi Party. Thule Society beliefs about the development of morally, intellectually and physically superior human beings (German Ubermensch) were incorporated as key principles in the development of Nazi ideology. Thule elites chose Hitler to lead the nascent Nazi Party because they believed they could easily control him.

Conventional historians tell us that Hitler turned on his former sponsors, and took absolute power and banned secret societies. Instead, according to Goode, Hitler was never more than a puppet of the German secret societies who decided what information and advanced technologies they would release to him as he pursued his militaristic policies.

The most recent episode of Cosmic Disclosure adds more details about the advanced technologies found and developed by German secret societies that were earlier disclosed by Goode in a previous episode and an email interview. More historical evidence supporting Goode’s incredible claims can be found in Insiders Reveal Secret Space Programs and Extraterrestrial Alliances.

Goode’s disclosures lead to an astonishing conclusion. German secret societies exploited Hitler’s Nazi regime by persuading it to provide resources for building the technological infrastructure for a breakaway German space program in Antarctica and South America.

The German secret societies promised to share advanced technologies that would allow Hitler to conquer Europe. Instead, they deceived Hitler, and allowed the collapse of Nazi Germany.

Perhaps most disturbingly, Goode claims that the German secret societies ultimately joined forces with U.S. based secret societies, and proceeded to infiltrate the U.S. military industrial complex. The result has been the development of many advanced spacecraft under the control of German secret societies and their U.S. allies, which Goode refers to as the “Dark Fleet” – a secret space program based on Nazi principles drawn from the Thule Society.

In the last few years, according to Goode, other secret space programs have united to thwart and expose the historical activities of the Dark Fleet and its allies. As more disclosures take place, humanity will find itself informed about and eventually freed from long standing manipulation by secret societies using advanced technologies to limit human potential.

© Michael E. Salla, Ph.D. Copyright Notice

Further Reading

Human civilization has been divided into two distinct branches for millennia according to a report issued today by Secret Space Program whistleblower, Corey Goode. On the Earth’s surface, civilizations have risen and fallen as a result of cataclysmic events, wars, influxes of refugees from other planets, and genetic experiments by visiting extraterrestrial civilizations. In the Earth’s vast subterranean interior, another branch of humanity has found refuge and flourished for millennia, preserving ancient forms of knowledge and bloodlines dating back to a time before cataclysmic surface changes.

In his report, Goode describes a meeting held with a Council representing seven ancient human civilizations, which he described as the “Council of Ancient Earth Breakaway Civilizations.” He describes the Council’s vast historical perspective and why they limited or avoided interaction with surface humanity over the course of millennia.

Goode describes the distrust the Council has of surface humanity, which has been easily controlled and manipulated by secret societies (Cabal/Illuminati) that are aligned with an invasive extraterrestrial group called the ‘Draconians’, who are intent on exploiting surface humanity.

In order to protect themselves from the aggressive and warlike activities of surface humanity and a non-human subterranean race called the ‘Raptors’, the ancient breakaway civilizations claim they have had to pretend to be gods and/or extraterrestrials to hide their true locations.

Goode begins his report with a detailed explanation about the circumstances and events leading up to this meeting with the “Council of Ancient Earth Breakaway Civilizations.” He describes how a break-down in relations between the different secret space programs, the influx of highly advanced weapons, and the emergence of the “Sphere Being Alliance,” led to the ancient Earth civilizations feeling the strategic need to ally themselves more.

Their first step was to form a Council of the seven different ancient breakaway groups, which previously had different perspectives, and were isolationist in their political philosophies. Curiously, this relatively new Council did not include the ancient Mayan civilization that Goode had previously discussed extensively, who have played a very positive role in mitigating the effects of “service-to-self” extraterrestrial groups exploiting humans.

This new alliance would enable the ancient Earth civilizations to counter the increase in aggressive actions by the Illuminati/Cabal and their extraterrestrial allies, led by the Draconians. The latter were encouraging the Raptors to expand their subterranean domains of Earth, leading to territorial losses by the ancient Earth Civilizations. Goode describes the Raptors as a “particularly nasty race” that had “hideous reptilian features as well as a scrawny plume of feathers running down their backs.”

Goode described in great detail how the subterranean Earth civilizations view themselves as racially pure in contrast to surface humanity:

They each described their perceptions of those of us on the surface as uncivilized barbarians who are diseased and genetically impure. They said they were the only ones who had preserved the various original earth human bloodlines.

Wave after wave of refugees from nearby planets had since co-mingled their genetics with the original humans of this planet, and had taken over the surface world like a plague.

Goode refers to four catastrophes on the Earth’s surface that led to the formation of breakaway subterranean civilizations:

They stated that in the nearly 20 million years since the original human bloodlines had arisen on Earth, there had been four major cataclysms that had either changed the Earth’s axis, rotation or orbital path around the Sun.

Each time one of these events occurred, the “elite” or priest caste kept their genetic line pure through isolating themselves beneath the ground. These small groups survived while their surface counterpart civilizations perished.

From time to time, these ancient civilizations would help surface humanity rebuild their destroyed societies according to what Goode was told:

Over oceans of time and smaller destructive events on the surface, which were still obviously catastrophic, nearly all signs of their former civilizations were erased from the memories of the survivors. Only myths and legends of advanced gods remained.

They stated that they would emerge from time to time to kick-start the civilization of the survivors who were the most closely related to them in terms of their genetics.

They claimed that these surviving races assumed they were the gods of their own ancient legends. It was decided that they would allow those they were assisting to believe they were gods, in order to keep their subterranean civilizations secret and secure.

Goode says that refugees from other worlds flooded the Earth’s surface and intermixed with the surviving population after the cataclysms:

To add to this incredible story, they stated that more and more advanced groups began to arrive from outside our solar system during and after these cataclysmic events. These new groups began to take advantage of the situation, such as to farm and manipulate the genetics of the natives of this solar system.

They claimed that the Earth became the destination of the refugees from these other inhabited planets. Advanced ETs relocated these refugees here in several waves as cataclysms occurred on their home planets. The refugee races were genetically similar to the original humans of Earth, but were much more aggressive.

The ancient Earth civilizations knew about the Guardians or the “ancient Builder Race” that Goode has described in a number of Gaiam TV interviews:

The subterranean groups claimed that there had been an ancient civilization that had protected this region of the galaxy for literally billions of years. They were referred to as “The Guardians,” and the Secret Space Program referred to them as the “Ancient Builder Race”…. This Guardian race was extremely advanced. There were no other ET groups who would even think of violating their region of space.

Surface humanity has changed from the time of the ancient Earth civilizations that had relocated underground. Surface humanity was now a threat:

The survivors of those inhabited worlds within our solar system relocated to the Earth. They were extremely aggressive, and began to reproduce and interbreed with the original humans that were on the Earth’s surface.

It was not long before the subterranean groups saw this new mixed race as a threat to their existence. This new mixed race is the current surface population of the earth today.

The ancient human society explained why they had to deceive surface humanity in order to counter the agendas of extraterrestrials:

They continued to appear to certain distant genetic relatives on the surface as gods and ascended teachers, to help them develop their civilizations and themselves spiritually. This was done in the hopes that they might be able to overcome the aggressive part of their genetic programming. This effort has continued right up until the present time.

They decided to start presenting themselves at ETs from other star systems when the surface population became more technologically sophisticated. They say that will continue to do this to keep the people they make contact with looking to the stars, instead of beneath their feet.

The ancient human civilizations are not optimistic about surface humanity’s chances of changing its aggressive behaviors despite the arrival of the Sphere Being Alliance who are believed by the former to be the ancient Guardians:

They stated that they are not optimistic that we will be able to do accomplish this, even with the continued energetic changes or return and assistance of the Guardians. This was quite surprising to hear, as they were obviously referring to the Sphere Alliance as the Guardians….

These subterranean groups are under the impression that after a full disclosure event and the removal of the manipulative ETs from our solar system, it will still take several generations for us to heal and evolve as a civilization. Only then will we be able to have open contact with their civilizations as equals.

The ancient breakaway civlizations are not happy that the Secret Space Program Alliance is acting as the intermediary to the Guardians/Sphere Being Alliance.

They were not exactly thrilled about forming this new council, or reaching out to the SSP Alliance Council to request contact with the newly-returned “Guardians.”

Apparently the Guardians were not going to contact them on their own. If they wanted any access at all, they had to work with us as a team.

They flatly stated that they were doing this under duress. Their alliance was forced into existence by the vast array of problems they were having. This included the lethal resistance they were encountering from various subterranean ET refugees and “ancient pre-human Earth races.”

Goode went on to explain that the ancient subterranean civilizations are frightened of surface humanity:

These people are frightened of us. We inherited very aggressive genetics from groups the refugee groups that were relocated to our planet as well as from genetic manipulation from groups such as the various “Grand Experiment ET’s” and the Draco that they themselves do not possess.

There is much more in Goode’s Report about the philosophy and activities of the ancient subterranean civilizations, and their relations with extraterrestrial visitors and surface humanity. Goode says that he also visited their library which will be the subject of part two of his report.

Corey Goode’s latest report is certain to create much controversy over claims that individuals believing they have had contact with extraterrestrials, were actually being deceived by one or more of these ancient subterranean human breakaway civilizations.

Most controversial is the claim that subterranean humans are genetically purer than surface humanity, which enables them to access ancient technologies left behind by the “Builder Race.” This reminiscent of the claims made by Edward Bulwer Lyton in his book, Vril: The Coming Race (1871), which had a powerful influence at the end of the 19th century.

Lyton’s book depicted a subterranean human race that could harness the Vril Force to use highly advanced technologies. Lyton’s book contributed to the rise of the German Vril Society and the eventual formation of the first secret space program in the 20th century. This historic process is outlined by Goode in an earlier email interview, and discussed in more detail in the new book, Insiders Reveal Secret Space Programs and Extraterrestrial Alliances.

If Goode’s report of his most recent Secret Space Program meeting is accurate, then surface humanity will eventually openly interact with its subterranean ancestors. There will be many controversial issues to navigate, and past conflicts to resolve, as we all learn about a much richer and complex human history than anything previously imagined.

© Michael E. Salla, Ph.D. Copyright Notice

Further Reading


Hello, I have reviewed this document as part of the Operational directorate's ongoing effort to review all IETF documents being processed by the IESG. These comments were written primarily for the benefit of the operational area directors. Document editors and WG chairs should treat these comments just like any other last call comments. I believe this draft is ready. I have one question below where I'd appreciate a short answer (marked ??? ) which is probably only due to my own insufficient knowledge of the innards of IMAP. The draft defines a new extension to the IMAP protocol. A new command can be sent by the client. The command is meant to be triggered manually by a human who searches for content in a number of mailboxes he has access to (as opposed to IMAP without this extension, where he could only search in one single mailbox at a time). IMAP servers advertise the corresponding extension, so clients know whether it is at their disposal for use or not. There are workarounds for a client if it is not (multiple searches in one mailbox each). The deployment of the extension can be done safely in a step-up manner; there are no backward-compatibility issues. The security considerations section mentions workload considerations and reminds of the necessity of access control and computation time limitations. ??? When an ESEARCH hits those configured limits, e.g. maximum permitted computation time on the query has been exceeded, can this be communicated to the client, or is that a "silent" failure? Also, does the ESEARCH then yield partial results, or none at all? As a user, I would appreciate notice that my search results are incomplete - either in terms of "only N out of M mailboxes searched" or "stopped after 1000 hits to your search terms". Assuming I have the necessary access rights to the mailboxes in question, there is no security leakage in telling me (otherwise, fully agree to the "insufficient access" distinguishing in the Security Considerations). None of the return values "OK" "NO" and "BAD" seems to capture the condition above clearly (NO is close, but could also mean things like charset mismatch, so it's not very clear as a response). But maybe there is some standard IMAP signalling for things like that elsewhere in the protocol. Then apologies for my question. Greetings, Stefan Winter -- Stefan WINTER Ingenieur de Recherche Fondation RESTENA - Réseau Téléinformatique de l'Education Nationale et de la Recherche 6, rue Richard Coudenhove-Kalergi L-1359 Luxembourg Tel: +352 424409 1 Fax: +352 422473 PGP key updated to 4096 Bit RSA - I will encrypt all mails if the recipient's key is known to me http://pgp.mit.edu:11371/pks/lookup?op=get&search=0xC0DE6A358A39DC66 Attachment: 0x8A39DC66.asc Description: application/pgp-keys Attachment: signature.asc Description: OpenPGP digital signature


Enabling Data-Driven Decisions at a Large Alcoholic Beverage Company

A large alcoholic beverage company wanted to use their data more effectively to drive key business decisions. As an international company with several premium brands, they strive to position themselves as world leaders in the luxury spirits market.

Before the project started, the company had many versions of reports that came from different systems. Users were unable to use data effectively due to lack of access or data literacy. There was also a high dependency on the international headquarters, which owned the BI solution. These challenges prevented them from using their data to drive important decisions and promote growth.

Finding the right tools for the solution

The project began with a discovery phase to fully flesh out the proper solution. The discovery included in-depth problem analyses, interviews, and other due diligence processes. We created a data strategy assessment and a roadmap to guide our BI efforts.

We selected a robust tech stack and designed the architecture for the solution. We then kicked off the project by setting up the infrastructure to build a new data warehouse. Next, the team had to get all of the relevant tools online, which included SSIS, SSAS for Tabular, MDS, Power BI, and quilliup.

Tying data together for a comprehensive view

At the start of the project, the organization used Excel for about 80% of internal data and had no automation set up to facilitate data analysis on a continuous basis. The first phase of the project included a small subset of data sources centered around sales volumes. As we moved into the second phase, we added more data sources from marketing and finance, and focused on building integrated views highlighting ROI that could show how the data, and consequently the insights, tie together.

Ensuring success by focusing on end users

The project also included an emphasis on change management and user adoption. A Keyrus change management consultant identified a “super group” of individuals from different roles (e.g., marketing, sales, finance, etc.) and different levels (e.g., analysts, managers, etc.) within the organization.

We sought to understand the daily activities of each of these user roles in order to more effectively tailor training for the new solution. Once user adoption was established for the super group, the solution would be rolled out across the organization.

As a result of the project, the company has a single source of truth for their data, and it’s accessible by everyone in the company. The new platform is used in key processes, such as account segmentation and new product launches, and they also use a BI center of excellence to  ensure the project will be successful in the long-term. The management team has a set of core KPI dashboards that they can refer to for monthly and quarterly business reviews.

Overall, the project enabled the company to begin using data to make smarter business decisions that will drive the company forward.


Tip: To see Abram’s analysis of Winnicott’s theories…

PEP-Web Tip of the Day

In-depth analysis of Winnicott’s psychoanalytic theorization was conducted by Jan Abrams in her work The Language of Winnicott. You can access it directly by clicking here.

Lafarge, L. (1989). Emptiness as Defense in Severe Regressive States. J. Amer. Psychoanal. Assn., 37:965-995.

(1989). Journal of the American Psychoanalytic Association, 37:965-995

Emptiness as Defense in Severe Regressive States

Lucy Lafarge, M.D.

This paper examines the empty states experienced by severely ill borderline patients. At times of stressful regression, these patients use complaints of emptiness to describe profound disturbances of affect, cognition, object relations, and bodily experience. Empty states may be seen as complex defensive configurations which protect a borderline level of psychic structure from the impact of aggressively charged object relations, and ward off further regression to states of fragmentation or fusion. Severely ill borderline patients consolidate an empty screen by means of a characteristic repertoire of primitive defenses consisting of various forms of projective identification, including bitriangulation and projective identification of psychic agencies, somatization, acting out, and specific alterations in cognition. The author describes the highly deviant organizations of the object world seen in empty states, and the complex and disturbing countertransferences which these states evoke.


Replication and extension of a model predicting response to psilocybin

Replication and extension of a model predicting response to psilocybin

Recent research demonstrated the potential of psychedelic drugs as treatment for depression and death-related anxiety and as an enhancement for well-being. While generally positive, responses to psychedelic drugs can vary according to traits, setting, and mental state (set) before and during ingestion. Most earlier models explain minimal response variation, primarily related to dosage and trust, but a recent study found that states of surrender and preoccupation at the time of ingestion explained substantial variance in mystical and adverse psilocybin experiences.

The current study sought to replicate the previous model, extend the model with additional predictors, and examine the role of mystical experience on positive change.

A hierarchical regression model was created with crowdsourced retrospective data from 183 individuals who had self-administered psilocybin in the past year. Scales explored mental states before, during, and after psilocybin ingestion, relying on open-ended memory prompts at each juncture to trigger recollections. Controlled drug administration was not employed.

This study replicated the previous model, finding a state of surrender before ingestion a key predictor of optimal experience and preoccupation a key predictor of adverse experience. Additional predictors added to the explanatory power for optimal and adverse experience. The model supported the importance of mystical experiences to long-term change.

Mental states of surrender or preoccupation at the time of ingestion explain variance in mystical or adverse psilocybin experiences, and mystical experiences relate to long-term positive change. The capacity to recognize this optimal preparatory mental state may benefit therapeutic use of psilocybin in clinical settings.

Russ, S. L., Carhart-Harris, R. L., Maruyama, G., & Elliott, M. S. (2019). Replication and extension of a model predicting response to psilocybin. Psychopharmacology, 1-10., 10.1007/s00213-019-05279-z

Link to full text

By | 2019-08-05T19:13:12+02:00 15 June 2019|Tags: , , , |


New Preface to Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression 1929-1939

Charles Kindleberger’s classic book on the Great Depression was originally published 40 years ago. In the preface to a new edition, two leading economists argue that the lessons are as relevant as ever.

The parallels between Europe in the 1930s and Europe today are stark, striking, and increasingly frightening. We see unemployment, youth unemployment especially, soaring to unprecedented heights. Financial instability and distress are widespread. There is growing political support for extremist parties of the far left and right.

Both the existence of these parallels and their tragic nature would not have escaped Charles Kindleberger, whose World in Depression, 1929-1939 was published exactly 40 years ago, in 1973.1  Where Kindleberger’s canvas was the world, his focus was Europe. While much of the earlier literature, often authored by Americans, focused on the Great Depression in the US, Kindleberger emphasised that the Depression had a prominent international and, in particular, European dimension. It was in Europe where many of the Depression’s worst effects, political as well as economic, played out. And it was in Europe where the absence of a public policy authority at the level of the continent and the inability of any individual national government or central bank to exercise adequate leadership had the most calamitous economic and financial effects.2

These were ideas that Kindleberger impressed upon generations of students as well on his reading public. Indeed, anyone fortunate enough to live in New England in the early 1980s and possessed of even a limited interest in international financial and monetary history felt compelled to walk, drive or take the T (as metropolitan Boston’s subway is known to locals) down to MIT’s Sloan Building in order to listen to Kindleberger’s lectures on the subject (including both the authors of this preface). We understood about half of what he said and recognised about a quarter of the historical references and allusions. The experience was intimidating: Paul Krugman, who was a member of this same group and went on to be awarded the Nobel Prize for his work in international economics, has written how Kindleberger’s course nearly scared him away from international macroeconomics. Kindleberger’s lectures were surely “full of wisdom”, Krugman notes. But then, “who feels wise in their twenties?” (Krugman 2002).

There was indeed much wisdom in Kindleberger’s lectures, about how markets work, about how they are managed, and especially about how they can go wrong. It is no accident that when Martin Wolf, dean of the British financial journalists, challenged then former-US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers in 2011 to deny that economists had proven themselves useless in the 2008-9 financial crisis, Summers’s response was that, to the contrary, there was a useful economics. But what was useful for understanding financial crises was to be found not in the academic mainstream of mathematical models festooned with Greek symbols and complex abstract relationships but in the work of the pioneering 19th century financial journalist Walter Bagehot, the 20th-century bubble theorist Hyman Minsky, and “perhaps more still in Kindleberger” (Wolf and Summers 2011).

Summers was right. We speak from personal experience: for a generation the two of us have been living – very well, thank you – off the rich dividends thrown off by the intellectual capital that we acquired from Charles Kindleberger, earning our pay cheques by teaching our students some small fraction of what Charlie taught us. Three lessons stand out, the first having to do with panic in financial markets, the second with the power of contagion, the third with the importance of hegemony.

First, panic. Kindleberger argued that panic, defined as sudden overwhelming fear giving rise to extreme behaviour on the part of the affected, is intrinsic in the operation of financial markets. In The World in Depression he gave the best ever “explain-and-illustrate-with-examples” answer to the question of how and why panic occurs and financial markets fall apart. Kindleberger was an early apostate from the efficient-markets school of thought that markets not just get it right but also that they are intrinsically stable. His rival in attempting to explain the Great Depression, Milton Friedman, had famously argued that speculation in financial markets can’t be destabilising because if destabilising speculators drive asset values away from justified, or equilibrium, levels, such speculators will lose money and eventually be driven out of the market.3  Kindleberger pushed back by observing that markets can continue to get it wrong for a very, very long time. He girded his position by elaborating and applying the work of Minsky, who had argued that markets pass through cycles characterised first by self-reinforcing boom, next by crash, then by panic, and finally by revulsion and depression. Kindleberger documented the ability of what is now sometimes referred to as the Minsky-Kindleberger framework to explain the behaviour of markets in the late 1920s and early 1930s – behaviour about which economists otherwise might have arguably had little of relevance or value to say. The Minsky paradigm emphasising the possibility of self-reinforcing booms and busts is the organising framework of The World in Depression. It then comes to the fore in all its explicit glory in Kindleberger’s subsequent book and summary statement of the approach, Mania, Panics and Crashes.4

Kindleberger’s second key lesson, closely related, is the power of contagion. At the centre of The World in Depression is the 1931 financial crisis, arguably the event that turned an already serious recession into the most severe downturn and economic catastrophe of the 20th century. The 1931 crisis began, as Kindleberger observes, in a relatively minor European financial centre, Vienna, but when left untreated leapfrogged first to Berlin and then, with even graver consequences, to London and New York. This is the 20th century’s most dramatic reminder of quickly how financial crises can metastasise almost instantaneously. In 1931 they spread through a number of different channels. German banks held deposits in Vienna. Merchant banks in London had extended credits to German banks and firms to help finance the country’s foreign trade. In addition to financial links, there were psychological links: as soon as a big bank went down in Vienna, investors, having no way to know for sure, began to fear that similar problems might be lurking in the banking systems of other European countries and the US. In the same way that problems in a small country, Greece, could threaten the entire European System in 2012, problems in a small country, Austria, could constitute a lethal threat to the entire global financial system in 1931 in the absence of effective action to prevent them from spreading.This brings us to Kindleberger’s third lesson, which has to do with the importance of hegemony, defined as a preponderance of influence and power over others, in this case over other nation states. Kindleberger argued that at the root of Europe’s and the world’s problems in the 1920s and 1930s was the absence of a benevolent hegemon: a dominant economic power able and willing to take the interests of smaller powers and the operation of the larger international system into account by stabilising the flow of spending through the global or at least the North Atlantic economy, and doing so by acting as a lender and consumer of last resort. Great Britain, now but a middle power in relative economic decline, no longer possessed the resources commensurate with the job. The rising power, the US, did not yet realise that the maintenance of economic stability required it to assume this role. In contrast to the period before 1914, when Britain acted as hegemon, or after 1945, when the US did so, there was no one to stabilise the unstable economy. Europe, the world economy’s chokepoint, was rendered rudderless, unstable, and crisis- and depression-prone. That is Kindleberger’s World in Depression in a nutshell. As he put it in 1973:

“The 1929 depression was so wide, so deep and so long because the international economic system was rendered unstable by British inability and United States unwillingness to assume responsibility for stabilising it in three particulars: (a) maintaining a relatively open market for distress goods; (b) providing counter-cyclical long-term lending; and (c) discounting in crisis…. The world economic system was unstable unless some country stabilised it, as Britain had done in the nineteenth century and up to 1913. In 1929, the British couldn’t and the United States wouldn’t. When every country turned to protect its national private interest, the world public interest went down the drain, and with it the private interests of all…”

Subsequently these insights stimulated a considerable body of scholarship in economics, particularly models of international economic policy coordination with and without a dominant economic power, and in political science, where Kindleberger’s “theory of hegemonic stability” is perhaps the leading approach used by political scientists to understand how order can be maintained in an otherwise anarchic international system.5

It might be hoped that something would have been learned from this considerable body of scholarship. Yet today, to our surprise, alarm and dismay, we find ourselves watching a rerun of Europe in 1931. Once more, panic and financial distress are widespread. And, once more, Europe lacks a hegemon – a dominant economic power capable of taking the interests of smaller powers and the operation of the larger international system into account by stabilising flows of finance and spending through the European economy. The ECB does not believe it has the authority: its mandate, the argument goes, requires it to mechanically pursue an inflation target – which it defines in practice as an inflation ceiling. It is not empowered, it argues, to act as a lender of the last resort to distressed financial markets, the indispensability of a lender of last resort in times of crisis being another powerful message of The World in Depression. The EU, a diverse collection of more than two dozen states, has found it difficult to reach a consensus on how to react. And even on those rare occasions where it does achieve something approaching a consensus, the wheels turn slowly, too slowly compared to the crisis, which turns very fast.

The German federal government, the political incarnation of the single most consequential economic power in Europe, is one potential hegemon. It has room for countercyclical fiscal policy. It could encourage the European Central Bank to make more active use of monetary policy. It could fund a Marshall Plan for Greece and signal a willingness to assume joint responsibility, along with its EU partners, for some fraction of their collective debt. But Germany still thinks of itself as the steward is a small open economy. It repeats at every turn that it is beyond its capacity to stabilise the European system: “German taxpayers can only bear so much after all”. Unilaterally taking action to stabilise the European economy is not, in any case, its responsibility, as the matter is perceived. The EU is not a union where big countries lead and smaller countries follow docilely but, at least ostensibly, a collection of equals. Germany’s own difficult history in any case makes it difficult for the country to assert its influence and authority and equally difficult for its EU partners, even those who most desperately require it, to accept such an assertion.6 Europe, everyone agrees, needs to strengthen its collective will and ability to take collective action. But in the absence of a hegemon at the European level, this is easier said than done.

The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, is not sufficiently well capitalised to do the job even were its non-European members to permit it to do so, which remains doubtful. Viewed from Asia or, for that matter, from Capitol Hill, Europe’s problems are properly solved in Europe. More concretely, the view is that the money needed to resolve Europe’s economic and financial crisis should come from Europe. The US government and Federal Reserve System, for their part, have no choice but to view Europe’s problems from the sidelines. A cash-strapped US government lacks the resources to intervene big-time in Europe’s affairs in 1948; there will be no 21st century analogue of the Marshall Plan, when the US through the Economic Recovery Programme, of which the young Charles Kindleberger was a major architect, extended a generous package of foreign aid to help stabilise an unstable continent. Today, in contrast, the Congress is not about to permit Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and Spain to incorporate in Delaware as bank holding companies and join the Federal Reserve System.7

In a sense, Kindleberger predicted all this in 1973. He saw the power and willingness of the US to bear the responsibility and burden of sacrifice required of benevolent hegemony as likely to falter in subsequent generations. He saw three positive and three negative branches on the then-future’s probability tree. The positive outcomes were: “[i] revived United States leadership… [ii] an assertion of leadership and assumption of responsibility… by Europe…” [sitting here, in 2013, one might be tempted to add emerging markets like China as potentially stepping into the leadership breach, although in practice the Chinese authorities have been reluctant to go there, and] [iii] cession of economic sovereignty to international institutions….” Here, in a sense, Kindleberger had both global and regional – meaning European – institutions in mind. “The last”, meaning a global solution, “is the most attractive”, he concluded,” but perhaps, because difficult, the least likely…” The negative outcomes were: “(a) the United States and the [EU] vying for leadership… (b) one unable to lead and the other unwilling, as in 1929 to 1933… (c) each retaining a veto… without seeking to secure positive programmes…”

As we write, the North Atlantic world appears to have fallen foul to his bad outcome (c), with extraordinary political dysfunction in the US preventing its government from acting as a benevolent hegemon, and the ruling mandarins of Europe, in Germany in particular, unwilling to step up and convince their voters that they must assume the task.

It was fear of this future that led Kindleberger to end The World in Depression with the observation: “In these circumstances, the third positive alternative of international institutions with real authority and sovereignty is pressing.”

Indeed it is, more so now than ever.

Eichengreen, Barry (1987), “Hegemonic Stability Theories of the International Monetary System”, in Richard Cooper, Barry Eichengreen, Gerald Holtham, Robert Putnam and Randall Henning (eds.), Can Nations Agree? Issues in International Economic Cooperation, The Brookings Institution, 255-298.

Friedman, Milton (1953), “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates”, in Essays in Positive Economics, University of Chicago Press.

Friedman, Milton and Anna J Schwartz (1963), A Monetary History of the United States, 1967-1960, Princeton University Press.

Gilpin, Robert (1987), The Political Economy of International Relations, Princeton University Press.

Keohane, Robert (1984), After Hegemony, Princeton University Press.

Kindleberger, Charles (1978), Manias, Panics and Crashes, Norton.

Krugman, Paul (2003), “Remembering Rudi Dornbusch”, unpublished manuscript,, 28 July.

Lake, David (1993), “Leadership, Hegemony and the International Economy: Naked Emperor or Tattered Monarch with Potential?”, International Studies Quarterly, 37: 459-489.

Wolf, Martin and Lawrence Summers (2011), “Larry Summers and Martin Wolf: Keynote at INET’s Bretton Woods Conference 2011”,, 9 April.

1 Kindleberger passed away in 2003. A second modestly revised and expanded edition of The World in Depression was then published, also by the University of California Press, in 1986. The second edition differed mainly by responding to the author’s critics and commenting to some subsequent literature. We have chosen to reproduce the ‘unvarnished’ 1973 Kindleberger, where the key points are made in unadorned fashion.

2 The book was commissioned originally for a series on the economic history of Europe, with each author writing on a different decade. This points to the question of why the title was not, instead, “Europe in Depression.” The answer, presumably, is that the author – and his publisher wished to acknowledge that the Depression was not exclusively a European phenomenon and that the linkages between Europe and the US were also critically important.

3 Friedman’s great work on the Depression, coauthored with Anna Jacobson Schwartz (1963), was in Kindleberger’s view too monocausal, focusing on the role of monetary policy, and too U.S. centric. See also Friedman (1953)

4 Kindleberger (1978). Kindleberger amply acknowledged his intellectual debt to Minsky. But we are not alone if we suggest that Kindleberger’s admirably clear presentation of the framework, and the success with which he documented its power by applying it to historical experience, rendered it more impactful in the academy and generally.

5 A sampling of work in economics on international policy coordination inspired by Kindleberger includes Eichengreen (1987) and Hughes Hallet, Mooslechner and Scheurz (2001). Three important statements of the relevant work in international relations are Keohane (1984), Gilpin (1987) and Lake (1993).

6 The European Union was created, in a sense, precisely in order to prevent the reassertion of German hegemony.

7 The point being that the US, in contrast, does possess a central bank willing, under certain circumstances, to acknowledge its responsibility for acting as a lender of last resort. Nothing in fact prevents the Federal Reserve, under current institutional arrangements from, say, purchasing the bonds of distressed Southern European sovereigns. But this would be viewed as peculiar and inappropriate in many quarters. The Fed has a full plate of other problems. And intervening in European bond markets, the argument would go, is properly the responsibility of the leading European monetary authority.

This post originally appeared at VOX and is posted with permission.

6 Responses to "New Preface to Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression 1929-1939"

  1. Kathryn B   June 12, 2012 at 4:03 pm

    When it comes to the world most pressing needs, current economic models which favor competition (which seem to be implied) fails. More cooperative strategies require much more trust, and, psychologically speaking, much more established trust. Without a history of successful cooperation, in a crisis, counties often "regress" into more basic instinctual behavior; ie: 'save yourself.'

    Look at the situation with global warming; many failed attempts for cooperation due to "self-interested" countries (led by the QoverQ profit needs of multinationals) all competing with each other and unable to find a market balance between income and the environment, dispite seemingly rising temperatures and warnings by scientists.

    If we survive this current economic recession, we have global warming and population issues to try and improve. These problems need a cooperative model that incorporates economies —-lets figure that out and throw in higher employement, and I'll then rejoice. Until then, cheers to us all.

  2. Barf   June 12, 2012 at 10:28 pm

    What is done is done now.

  3. Dave L   June 13, 2012 at 8:22 am

    When is the new edition being published? Doesn't show up on Amazon yet…

  4. AndrewMGarland   June 13, 2012 at 1:39 pm

    These seem to be the main points.

    === ===
    [1] In 1931 a major bank failed. Savers had no faith that other banks were any better, so they reacted. They tried to preserve their cash from a failing web of monetary obligations. They wanted to get their money out and somewhere safe.

    [3] The ECB believes its mandate is to mechanically pursue an inflation target, in practice an inflation ceiling.

    [4] The ECB believes it is not empowered to act as a lender of last resort to distressed financial markets. But, such a lender in times of crisis is necessary, another powerful lesson of the 1930's World in Depression.
    === ===

    And my take on what this means:

    [1] An opaque and politically manipulated banking "system" is unravelling, like 1931. Europe has been living on loans "to itself" which it cannot pay back "to itself". Depositors are reacting rationally, trying to save what they can.

    [2] Europe lacks a rich uncle willing to loan immense resources to pay back the losses of the EU, despite any reasonable prospect of being paid back. This rich uncle should just make it a gift. This is fantasy.

    [3] The ECB does not believe that it should simply inflate the Euro to substantially reduce the real debt. The country central banks want to pay back loans in inflated currency to cover up the real losses.

    [4] A lender of last resort is properly understood as a sufficiently rich and wise agency which is willing to lend cash to a solvent but illiquid institution. That is, the borrower has sufficient assets, but not in cash. This can end a bank run by supplying enough cash to calm the depositors.

    However, the EU is insolvent, not illiquid. Greece just defaulted on a whole chunk of debt, and it will default on more. People everywhere see that many countries in the EU can't pay back what they have borrowed, in real value. No one wants to throw away more value on a political system which has adopted policies of financial decline. Why should they?

    • Scott Goff   June 19, 2012 at 10:01 pm

      A fine reply to an erudite historical comparison that does not quite fit our present situation. Underlying the EU's insolvency is the unsolved political question of constituencies voting and governments granting unsustainable benefits from economies unable provide them without recourse to increasingly larger deficits. The so-called banking crisis is more a result than a cause of the problem. Since the end of W.W. II an expansionist/inflationary economy has allowed the Western democracies to ignore basic fiscal responsibility. However spectacular the financial result of present difficulties the heart of the situation is political and may well put in peril the survival of democracy.


Trump mocks Macron again over French fuel tax protests

  • Trump mocks Macron again over French fuel tax protests

Trump mocks Macron again over French fuel tax protests

Those changes earned Macron the label "president of the rich" among the hard-pressed middle class voters and blue collar workers who criticize the president for pursuing policies that favor the wealthy and do nothing to help the poor.

Prime Minister Edouard Philippe announced a six-month delay in the fuel tax increase, which had been set to begin in January, and a freeze on electricity and natural gas prices until May.

The French government is hoping to stave off another day of running riots and burning cars like on Saturday, when more than 400 people were arrested in the capital.

The protests began last month with motorists upset over the fuel tax hike, but have grown to encompass a range of complaints, with protesters claiming that Macron's government doesn't care about the problems of ordinary people.

"No tax merits putting the unity of the nation in danger", he said. The Arc de Triomphe was sprayed with graffiti and vandalised.

"This anger, you would have to be deaf and blind not to see it, nor hear it", Philippe said after more than a fortnight of demonstrations by so-called "yellow vest" protesters.

Since returning from the G20 summit in Argentina, Macron has either remained in his palace residence or otherwise shied away from speaking publicly about the protests, which represent his biggest political crisis since taking office last May.

Protesters wearing their signature fluorescent yellow vests kept blocking several fuel depots and, on a highway near the southern city of Aubagne, protesters took over a toll booth to let vehicles pass for free. "We're in politics so that things work out", he said.

Another self-proclaimed leader Thierry Paul Valette said that protesters were unhappy not just about the price of fuel but general discontent with economic inequality. On Tuesday night, he was booed and jeered as he traveled to a regional government headquarters that was torched by protesters last weekend. The protests have exploded into an impossible-to-ignore statement of outrage over Macron's leadership, which had a 23 percent approval rating according to a poll released Tuesday by Ifop-Fiducial for Paris Match and Sud Radio; working conditions for paramedics; school reforms; and the perception that Macron, a former investment banker, is a president for the country's elite.

We want to hear from you.

Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced the delay of the tax increases in a speech on national television. "It's a change of course".

U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to mock Macron over the policy shift, which will make it harder for France to meet its Carbon dioxide emissions reduction target, a core element of the Paris climate agreement of 2015.

After it was clear that Macron had been defeated by the strong-arming of the violent protests, Trump tweeted that he was pleased with the outcome.

"The Paris Agreement is fatally flawed because it raises the price of energy for responsible countries while whitewashing some of the worst polluters", said Trump, referring to a global deal on the environment drafted in Paris in late 2015.

Across France, four people have been killed in accidents linked to the demonstrations and road blockades, and hundreds injured.


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