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Global Warming

By Holli RiebeekDesign by Robert SimmonJune 3, 2010

Throughout its long history, Earth has warmed and cooled time and again. Climate has changed when the planet received more or less sunlight due to subtle shifts in its orbit, as the atmosphere or surface changed, or when the Sun's energy varied. But in the past century, another force has started to influence Earth's climate: humanity

Previous versions of this article were published in 2007 and 2002. Archived versions are available as PDF files.

(NASA astronaut photograph ISS022-E-6674.)

What is Global Warming?

Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth's average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels.

How Does Today's Warming Compare to Past Climate Change?

Earth has experienced climate change in the past without help from humanity. But the current climatic warming is occurring much more rapidly than past warming events.

Why Do Scientists Think Current Warming Isn't Natural?

In Earth's history before the Industrial Revolution, Earth's climate changed due to natural causes unrelated to human activity. These natural causes are still in play today, but their influence is too small or they occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent decades.

How Much More Will Earth Warm?

Models predict that as the world consumes ever more fossil fuel, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise, and Earth's average surface temperature will rise with them. Based on plausible emission scenarios, average surface temperatures could rise between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century. Some of this warming will occur even if future greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, because the Earth system has not yet fully adjusted to environmental changes we have already made.

How Will Earth Respond to Warming Temperatures?

References and Related Resources

Global Warming

How does this warming compare to previous changes in Earth's climate? How can we be certain that human-released greenhouse gases are causing the warming? How much more will the Earth warm? How will Earth respond? Answering these questions is perhaps the most significant scientific challenge of our time.

What is Global Warming?

Despite ups and downs from year to year, global average surface temperature is rising. By the beginning of the 21st century, Earth's temperature was roughly 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term (1951–1980) average. (NASA figure adapted from Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis.)

Earth's natural greenhouse effect

As the rocks, the air, and the seas warm, they radiate "heat" energy (thermal infrared radiation). From the surface, this energy travels into the atmosphere where much of it is absorbed by water vapor and long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.

When they absorb the energy radiating from Earth's surface, microscopic water or greenhouse gas molecules turn into tiny heaters— like the bricks in a fireplace, they radiate heat even after the fire goes out. They radiate in all directions. The energy that radiates back toward Earth heats both the lower atmosphere and the surface, enhancing the heating they get from direct sunlight.

This absorption and radiation of heat by the atmosphere—the natural greenhouse effect—is beneficial for life on Earth. If there were no greenhouse effect, the Earth's average surface temperature would be a very chilly -18°C (0°F) instead of the comfortable 15°C (59°F) that it is today.

See Climate and Earth's Energy Budget to read more about how sunlight fuels Earth's climate.

The enhanced greenhouse effect

Increases in concentrations of carbon dioxide (top) and methane (bottom) coincided with the start of the Industrial Revolution in about 1750. Measurements from Antarctic ice cores (green lines) combined with direct atmospheric measurements (blue lines) show the increase of both gases over time. (NASA graphs by Robert Simmon, based on data from the NOAA Paleoclimatology and Earth System Research Laboratory.)

The atmosphere today contains more greenhouse gas molecules, so more of the infrared energy emitted by the surface ends up being absorbed by the atmosphere. Since some of the extra energy from a warmer atmosphere radiates back down to the surface, Earth's surface temperature rises. By increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases, we are making Earth's atmosphere a more efficient greenhouse.

How is Today's Warming Different from the Past?

Earth has experienced climate change in the past without help from humanity. We know about past climates because of evidence left in tree rings, layers of ice in glaciers, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. For example, bubbles of air in glacial ice trap tiny samples of Earth's atmosphere, giving scientists a history of greenhouse gases that stretches back more than 800,000 years. The chemical make-up of the ice provides clues to the average global temperature.

See the Earth Observatory's series Paleoclimatology for details about how scientists study past climates.

Glacial ice and air bubbles trapped in it (top) preserve an 800,000-year record of temperature & carbon dioxide. Earth has cycled between ice ages (low points, large negative anomalies) and warm interglacials (peaks). (Photograph courtesy National Snow & Ice Data Center. NASA graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from Jouzel et al., 2007.)

Using this ancient evidence, scientists have built a record of Earth's past climates, or "paleoclimates." The paleoclimate record combined with global models shows past ice ages as well as periods even warmer than today. But the paleoclimate record also reveals that the current climatic warming is occurring much more rapidly than past warming events.

As the Earth moved out of ice ages over the past million years, the global temperature rose a total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius over about 5,000 years. In the past century alone, the temperature has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius, roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming.

Temperature histories from paleoclimate data (green line) compared to the history based on modern instruments (blue line) suggest that global temperature is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000 years, and possibly longer. (Graph adapted from Mann et al., 2008.)

Is Current Warming Natural?

In Earth's history before the Industrial Revolution, Earth's climate changed due to natural causes not related to human activity. Most often, global climate has changed because of variations in sunlight. Tiny wobbles in Earth's orbit altered when and where sunlight falls on Earth's surface. Variations in the Sun itself have alternately increased and decreased the amount of solar energy reaching Earth. Volcanic eruptions have generated particles that reflect sunlight, brightening the planet and cooling the climate. Volcanic activity has also, in the deep past, increased greenhouse gases over millions of years, contributing to episodes of global warming.

A biographical sketch of Milutin Milankovitch describes how changes in Earth's orbit affects its climate.

These natural causes are still in play today, but their influence is too small or they occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent decades. We know this because scientists closely monitor the natural and human activities that influence climate with a fleet of satellites and surface instruments.

Remote meteorological stations (left) and orbiting satellites (right) help scientists monitor the causes and effects of global warming. [Images courtesy NOAA Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (left) and Environmental Visualization Laboratory (right).]

NASA satellites record a host of vital signs including atmospheric aerosols (particles from both natural sources and human activities, such as factories, fires, deserts, and erupting volcanoes), atmospheric gases (including greenhouse gases), energy radiated from Earth's surface and the Sun, ocean surface temperature changes, global sea level, the extent of ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice, plant growth, rainfall, cloud structure, and more.

On the ground, many agencies and nations support networks of weather and climate-monitoring stations that maintain temperature, rainfall, and snow depth records, and buoys that measure surface water and deep ocean temperatures. Taken together, these measurements provide an ever-improving record of both natural events and human activity for the past 150 years.

Scientists integrate these measurements into climate models to recreate temperatures recorded over the past 150 years. Climate model simulations that consider only natural solar variability and volcanic aerosols since 1750—omitting observed increases in greenhouse gases—are able to fit the observations of global temperatures only up until about 1950. After that point, the decadal trend in global surface warming cannot be explained without including the contribution of the greenhouse gases added by humans.

Though people have had the largest impact on our climate since 1950, natural changes to Earth's climate have also occurred in recent times. For example, two major volcanic eruptions, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, pumped sulfur dioxide gas high into the atmosphere. The gas was converted into tiny particles that lingered for more than a year, reflecting sunlight and shading Earth's surface. Temperatures across the globe dipped for two to three years.

Although Earth's temperature fluctuates naturally, human influence on climate has eclipsed the magnitude of natural temperature changes over the past 120 years. Natural influences on temperature—El Niño, solar variability, and volcanic aerosols—have varied approximately plus and minus 0.2° C (0.4° F), (averaging to about zero), while human influences have contributed roughly 0.8° C (1° F) of warming since 1889. (Graphs adapted from Lean et al., 2008.)

Although volcanoes are active around the world, and continue to emit carbon dioxide as they did in the past, the amount of carbon dioxide they release is extremely small compared to human emissions. On average, volcanoes emit between 130 and 230 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. By burning fossil fuels, people release in excess of 100 times more, about 26 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere every year (as of 2005). As a result, human activity overshadows any contribution volcanoes may have made to recent global warming.

Changes in the brightness of the Sun can influence the climate from decade to decade, but an increase in solar output falls short as an explanation for recent warming. NASA satellites have been measuring the Sun's output since 1978. The total energy the Sun radiates varies over an 11-year cycle. During solar maxima, solar energy is approximately 0.1 percent higher on average than it is during solar minima.

The transparent halo known as the solar corona changes between solar maximum (left) and solar minimum (right). (NASA Extreme Ultraviolet Telescope images from the SOHO Data Archive.)

Each cycle exhibits subtle differences in intensity and duration. As of early 2010, the solar brightness since 2005 has been slightly lower, not higher, than it was during the previous 11-year minimum in solar activity, which occurred in the late 1990s. This implies that the Sun's impact between 2005 and 2010 might have been to slightly decrease the warming that greenhouse emissions alone would have caused.

Satellite measurements of daily (light line) and monthly average (dark line) total solar irradiance since 1979 have not detected a clear long-term trend. (NASA graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from the ACRIM Science Team.)

Scientists theorize that there may be a multi-decadal trend in solar output, though if one exists, it has not been observed as yet. Even if the Sun were getting brighter, however, the pattern of warming observed on Earth since 1950 does not match the type of warming the Sun alone would cause. When the Sun's energy is at its peak (solar maxima), temperatures in both the lower atmosphere (troposphere) and the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) become warmer. Instead, observations show the pattern expected from greenhouse gas effects: Earth's surface and troposphere have warmed, but the stratosphere has cooled.

Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere (lower atmosphere, green line) but cooling in the stratosphere (upper atmosphere, red line). This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases, but inconsistent with warming from natural causes. (Graph by Robert Simmon, based on data from Remote Sensing Systems, sponsored by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program.)

The stratosphere gets warmer during solar maxima because the ozone layer absorbs ultraviolet light; more ultraviolet light during solar maxima means warmer temperatures. Ozone depletion explains the biggest part of the cooling of the stratosphere over recent decades, but it can't account for all of it. Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the troposphere and stratosphere together contribute to cooling in the stratosphere.

How Much More Will Earth Warm?

To further explore the causes and effects of global warming and to predict future warming, scientists build climate models—computer simulations of the climate system. Climate models are designed to simulate the responses and interactions of the oceans and atmosphere, and to account for changes to the land surface, both natural and human-induced. They comply with fundamental laws of physics—conservation of energy, mass, and momentum—and account for dozens of factors that influence Earth's climate.

Though the models are complicated, rigorous tests with real-world data hone them into powerful tools that allow scientists to explore our understanding of climate in ways not otherwise possible. By experimenting with the models—removing greenhouse gases emitted by the burning of fossil fuels or changing the intensity of the Sun to see how each influences the climate—scientists use the models to better understand Earth's current climate and to predict future climate.

The models predict that as the world consumes ever more fossil fuel, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise, and Earth's average surface temperature will rise with them. Based on a range of plausible emission scenarios, average surface temperatures could rise between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century.

Model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimate that Earth will warm between two and six degrees Celsius over the next century, depending on how fast carbon dioxide emissions grow. Scenarios that assume that people will burn more and more fossil fuel provide the estimates in the top end of the temperature range, while scenarios that assume that greenhouse gas emissions will grow slowly give lower temperature predictions. The orange line provides an estimate of global temperatures if greenhouse gases stayed at year 2000 levels. (©2007 IPCC WG1 AR-4.)

Climate Feedbacks

Greenhouse gases are only part of the story when it comes to global warming. Changes to one part of the climate system can cause additional changes to the way the planet absorbs or reflects energy. These secondary changes are called climate feedbacks, and they could more than double the amount of warming caused by carbon dioxide alone. The primary feedbacks are due to snow and ice, water vapor, clouds, and the carbon cycle.

Snow and ice

Perhaps the most well known feedback comes from melting snow and ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Warming temperatures are already melting a growing percentage of Arctic sea ice, exposing dark ocean water during the perpetual sunlight of summer. Snow cover on land is also dwindling in many areas. In the absence of snow and ice, these areas go from having bright, sunlight-reflecting surfaces that cool the planet to having dark, sunlight-absorbing surfaces that bring more energy into the Earth system and cause more warming.

Canada's Athabasca Glacier has been shrinking by about 15 meters per year. In the past 125 years, the glacier has lost half its volume and has retreated more than 1.5 kilometers. As glaciers retreat, sea ice disappears, and snow melts earlier in the spring, the Earth absorbs more sunlight than it would if the reflective snow and ice remained. (Photograph ©2005 Hugh Saxby.)

Water Vapor

The largest feedback is water vapor. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. In fact, because of its abundance in the atmosphere, water vapor causes about two-thirds of greenhouse warming, a key factor in keeping temperatures in the habitable range on Earth. But as temperatures warm, more water vapor evaporates from the surface into the atmosphere, where it can cause temperatures to climb further.

The question that scientists ask is, how much water vapor will be in the atmosphere in a warming world? The atmosphere currently has an average equilibrium or balance between water vapor concentration and temperature. As temperatures warm, the atmosphere becomes capable of containing more water vapor, and so water vapor concentrations go up to regain equilibrium. Will that trend hold as temperatures continue to warm?

The amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere ultimately determines how much additional warming will occur due to the water vapor feedback. The atmosphere responds quickly to the water vapor feedback. So far, most of the atmosphere has maintained a near constant balance between temperature and water vapor concentration as temperatures have gone up in recent decades. If this trend continues, and many models say that it will, water vapor has the capacity to double the warming caused by carbon dioxide alone.

Closely related to the water vapor feedback is the cloud feedback. Clouds cause cooling by reflecting solar energy, but they also cause warming by absorbing infrared energy (like greenhouse gases) from the surface when they are over areas that are warmer than they are. In our current climate, clouds have a cooling effect overall, but that could change in a warmer environment.

Clouds can both cool the planet (by reflecting visible light from the sun) and warm the planet (by absorbing heat radiation emitted by the surface). On balance, clouds slightly cool the Earth. (NASA Astronaut Photograph STS31-E-9552 courtesy Johnson space Center Earth Observations Lab.)

If clouds become brighter, or the geographical extent of bright clouds expands, they will tend to cool Earth's surface. Clouds can become brighter if more moisture converges in a particular region or if more fine particles (aerosols) enter the air. If fewer bright clouds form, it will contribute to warming from the cloud feedback.

See Ship Tracks South of Alaska to learn how aerosols can make clouds brighter.

Clouds, like greenhouse gases, also absorb and re-emit infrared energy. Low, warm clouds emit more energy than high, cold clouds. However, in many parts of the world, energy emitted by low clouds can be absorbed by the abundant water vapor above them. Further, low clouds often have nearly the same temperatures as the Earth's surface, and so emit similar amounts of infrared energy. In a world without low clouds, the amount of emitted infrared energy escaping to space would not be too different from a world with low clouds.

Clouds emit thermal infrared (heat) radiation in proportion to their temperature, which is related to altitude. This image shows the Western Hemisphere in the thermal infrared. Warm ocean and land surface areas are white and light gray; cool, low-level clouds are medium gray; and cold, high-altitude clouds are dark gray and black. (NASA image courtesy GOES Project Science.)

High cold clouds, however, form in a part of the atmosphere where energy-absorbing water vapor is scarce. These clouds trap (absorb) energy coming from the lower atmosphere, and emit little energy to space because of their frigid temperatures. In a world with high clouds, a significant amount of energy that would otherwise escape to space is captured in the atmosphere. As a result, global temperatures are higher than in a world without high clouds.

If warmer temperatures result in a greater amount of high clouds, then less infrared energy will be emitted to space. In other words, more high clouds would enhance the greenhouse effect, reducing the Earth's capability to cool and causing temperatures to warm.

See Clouds and Radiation for a more complete description.

Scientists aren't entirely sure where and to what degree clouds will end up amplifying or moderating warming, but most climate models predict a slight overall positive feedback or amplification of warming due to a reduction in low cloud cover. A recent observational study found that fewer low, dense clouds formed over a region in the Pacific Ocean when temperatures warmed, suggesting a positive cloud feedback in this region as the models predicted. Such direct observational evidence is limited, however, and clouds remain the biggest source of uncertainty--apart from human choices to control greenhouse gases—in predicting how much the climate will change.

The Carbon Cycle

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and warming temperatures are causing changes in the Earth's natural carbon cycle that also can feedback on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. For now, primarily ocean water, and to some extent ecosystems on land, are taking up about half of our fossil fuel and biomass burning emissions. This behavior slows global warming by decreasing the rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase, but that trend may not continue. Warmer ocean waters will hold less dissolved carbon, leaving more in the atmosphere.

About half the carbon dioxide emitted into the air from burning fossil fuels dissolves in the ocean. This map shows the total amount of human-made carbon dioxide in ocean water from the surface to the sea floor. Blue areas have low amounts, while yellow regions are rich in anthropogenic carbon dioxide. High amounts occur where currents carry the carbon-dioxide-rich surface water into the ocean depths. (Map adapted from Sabine et al., 2004.)

See The Ocean's Carbon Balance on the Earth Observatory.

On land, changes in the carbon cycle are more complicated. Under a warmer climate, soils, especially thawing Arctic tundra, could release trapped carbon dioxide or methane to the atmosphere. Increased fire frequency and insect infestations also release more carbon as trees burn or die and decay.

On the other hand, extra carbon dioxide can stimulate plant growth in some ecosystems, allowing these plants to take additional carbon out of the atmosphere. However, this effect may be reduced when plant growth is limited by water, nitrogen, and temperature. This effect may also diminish as carbon dioxide increases to levels that become saturating for photosynthesis. Because of these complications, it is not clear how much additional carbon dioxide plants can take out of the atmosphere and how long they could continue to do so.

The impact of climate change on the land carbon cycle is extremely complex, but on balance, land carbon sinks will become less efficient as plants reach saturation, where they can no longer take up additional carbon dioxide, and other limitations on growth occur, and as land starts to add more carbon to the atmosphere from warming soil, fires, and insect infestations. This will result in a faster increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and more rapid global warming. In some climate models, carbon cycle feedbacks from both land and ocean add more than a degree Celsius to global temperatures by 2100.

Emission Scenarios

Scientists predict the range of likely temperature increase by running many possible future scenarios through climate models. Although some of the uncertainty in climate forecasts comes from imperfect knowledge of climate feedbacks, the most significant source of uncertainty in these predictions is that scientists don't know what choices people will make to control greenhouse gas emissions.

The higher estimates are made on the assumption that the entire world will continue using more and more fossil fuel per capita, a scenario scientists call "business-as-usual." More modest estimates come from scenarios in which environmentally friendly technologies such as fuel cells, solar panels, and wind energy replace much of today's fossil fuel combustion.

It takes decades to centuries for Earth to fully react to increases in greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide, among other greenhouse gases, will remain in the atmosphere long after emissions are reduced, contributing to continuing warming. In addition, as Earth has warmed, much of the excess energy has gone into heating the upper layers of the ocean. Like a hot water bottle on a cold night, the heated ocean will continue warming the lower atmosphere well after greenhouse gases have stopped increasing.

These considerations mean that people won't immediately see the impact of reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized today, the planet would continue to warm by about 0.6°C over the next century because of greenhouses gases already in the atmosphere.

See Earth's Big Heat Bucket, Correcting Ocean Cooling, and Climate Q&A: If we immediately stopped emitting greenhouse gases, would global warming stop? to learn more about the ocean heat and global warming.

How Will Global Warming Change Earth?

The impact of increased surface temperatures is significant in itself. But global warming will have additional, far-reaching effects on the planet. Warming modifies rainfall patterns, amplifies coastal erosion, lengthens the growing season in some regions, melts ice caps and glaciers, and alters the ranges of some infectious diseases. Some of these changes are already occurring.

Global warming will shift major climate patterns, possibly prolonging and intensifying the current drought in the U.S. Southwest. The white ring of bleached rock on the once-red cliffs that hold Lake Powell indicate the drop in water level over the past decade—the result of repeated winters with low snowfall. (Photograph ©2006 Tigresblanco.)

Changing Weather

For most places, global warming will result in more frequent hot days and fewer cool days, with the greatest warming occurring over land. Longer, more intense heat waves will become more common. Storms, floods, and droughts will generally be more severe as precipitation patterns change. Hurricanes may increase in intensity due to warmer ocean surface temperatures.

Apart from driving temperatures up, global warming is likely to cause bigger, more destructive storms, leading to an overall increase in precipitation. With some exceptions, the tropics will likely receive less rain (orange) as the planet warms, while the polar regions will receive more precipitation (green). White areas indicate that fewer than two-thirds of the climate models agreed on how precipitation will change. Stippled areas reveal where more than 90 percent of the models agreed. (©2007 IPCC WG1 AR-4.)

It is impossible to pin any single unusual weather event on global warming, but emerging evidence suggests that global warming is already influencing the weather. Heat waves, droughts, and intense rain events have increased in frequency during the last 50 years, and human-induced global warming more likely than not contributed to the trend.

Rising Sea Levels

The weather isn't the only thing global warming will impact: rising sea levels will erode coasts and cause more frequent coastal flooding. Some island nations will disappear. The problem is serious because up to 10 percent of the world's population lives in vulnerable areas less than 10 meters (about 30 feet) above sea level.

Between 1870 and 2000, the sea level increased by 1.7 millimeters per year on average, for a total sea level rise of 221 millimeters (0.7 feet or 8.7 inches). And the rate of sea level rise is accelerating. Since 1993, NASA satellites have shown that sea levels are rising more quickly, about 3 millimeters per year, for a total sea level rise of 48 millimeters (0.16 feet or 1.89 inches) between 1993 and 2009.

Sea levels crept up about 20 centimeters (7.9 inches) during the twentieth century. Sea levels are predicted to go up between 18 and 59 cm (7.1 and 23 inches) over the next century, though the increase could be greater if ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica melt more quickly than predicted. Higher sea levels will erode coastlines and cause more frequent flooding. (Graph ©2007 Robert Rohde.)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that sea levels will rise between 0.18 and 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 feet) by 2099 as warming sea water expands, and mountain and polar glaciers melt. These sea level change predictions may be underestimates, however, because they do not account for any increases in the rate at which the world's major ice sheets are melting. As temperatures rise, ice will melt more quickly. Satellite measurements reveal that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are shedding about 125 billion tons of ice per year—enough to raise sea levels by 0.35 millimeters (0.01 inches) per year. If the melting accelerates, the increase in sea level could be significantly higher.

Impacting Ecosystems

More importantly, perhaps, global warming is already putting pressure on ecosystems, the plants and animals that co-exist in a particular climate zone, both on land and in the ocean. Warmer temperatures have already shifted the growing season in many parts of the globe. The growing season in parts of the Northern Hemisphere became two weeks longer in the second half of the 20th century. Spring is coming earlier in both hemispheres.

This change in the growing season affects the broader ecosystem. Migrating animals have to start seeking food sources earlier. The shift in seasons may already be causing the lifecycles of pollinators, like bees, to be out of synch with flowering plants and trees. This mismatch can limit the ability of both pollinators and plants to survive and reproduce, which would reduce food availability throughout the food chain.

See Buzzing About Climate Change to read more about how the lifecycle of bees is synched with flowering plants.

Warmer temperatures also extend the growing season. This means that plants need more water to keep growing throughout the season or they will dry out, increasing the risk of failed crops and wildfires. Once the growing season ends, shorter, milder winters fail to kill dormant insects, increasing the risk of large, damaging infestations in subsequent seasons.

In some ecosystems, maximum daily temperatures might climb beyond the tolerance of indigenous plant or animal. To survive the extreme temperatures, both marine and land-based plants and animals have started to migrate towards the poles. Those species, and in some cases, entire ecosystems, that cannot quickly migrate or adapt, face extinction. The IPCC estimates that 20-30 percent of plant and animal species will be at risk of extinction if temperatures climb more than 1.5° to 2.5°C.

Impacting People

The changes to weather and ecosystems will also affect people more directly. Hardest hit will be those living in low-lying coastal areas, and residents of poorer countries who do not have the resources to adapt to changes in temperature extremes and water resources. As tropical temperature zones expand, the reach of some infectious diseases, such as malaria, will change. More intense rains and hurricanes and rising sea levels will lead to more severe flooding and potential loss of property and life.

One inevitable consequence of global warming is sea-level rise. In the face of higher sea levels and more intense storms, coastal communities face greater risk of rapid beach erosion from destructive storms like the intense nor'easter of April 2007 that caused this damage. (Photograph ©2007 metimbers2000.)

Hotter summers and more frequent fires will lead to more cases of heat stroke and deaths, and to higher levels of near-surface ozone and smoke, which would cause more 'code red' air quality days. Intense droughts can lead to an increase in malnutrition. On a longer time scale, fresh water will become scarcer, especially during the summer, as mountain glaciers disappear, particularly in Asia and parts of North America.

On the flip side, there could be "winners" in a few places. For example, as long as the rise in global average temperature stays below 3 degrees Celsius, some models predict that global food production could increase because of the longer growing season at mid- to high-latitudes, provided adequate water resources are available. The same small change in temperature, however, would reduce food production at lower latitudes, where many countries already face food shortages. On balance, most research suggests that the negative impacts of a changing climate far outweigh the positive impacts. Current civilization—agriculture and population distribution—has developed based on the current climate. The more the climate changes, and the more rapidly it changes, the greater the cost of adaptation.

Ultimately, global warming will impact life on Earth in many ways, but the extent of the change is largely up to us. Scientists have shown that human emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing global temperatures up, and many aspects of climate are responding to the warming in the way that scientists predicted they would. This offers hope. Since people are causing global warming, people can mitigate global warming, if they act in time. Greenhouse gases are long-lived, so the planet will continue to warm and changes will continue to happen far into the future, but the degree to which global warming changes life on Earth depends on our decisions now.

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By Joceyln Ovalles

Hellotittie is a women empowerment brand with a mission of providing a platform for the female artist where they can showcase their art and gain more recognition. Their March 1st featured a variety of female artists of all mediums including paintings, digital art, and performing arts.

The spacious venue filled with art of the traditional gallery walls each has space where artists were able to set up their work. With the ease of navigation came the ability to examine the art and have a discussion. The artists were women of all ages and ethnicities a beautiful sight for any women artist to get the chance to see. As I got the privilege to walk around and speak to the artists, I asked them two important questions;

What inspires you to make art? What is it like being a woman artist in our society?

These artists are inspired by mental health, Pop Art, colors, music, healing, emotions, energy, nature and being able to express things some people don’t feel safe speaking out about. Many of the artists think that being a woman in the art in today’s world is way more inviting than being a woman than before.

The younger generation of women artists is bringing along challenging ideas about diversity and inclusion. One of the young artists Jada Hairston said, “Art does not have a gender.” As she was explaining to me how she doesn’t see herself being anything other than an artist. Some artists think it’s easier to be a woman artist nowadays than it is for men and the art world is getting dominated by women.

Hellotittie is changing the way women are seen in the art world. Hellotittie is speaking out to all women and encourage them to support each other.  “We value Empowering Women and Young Girls!” More exposure is exactly what we need in order to be taken as seriously as the Picasso’s and the Van Gogh’s. The goal is for a woman to be in the art textbooks and be a part of the evolution and history of art as much as their male counterparts.

Learn more about Hellotittie here.


Outlander author Diana Gabaldon calls for greater protection of Scottish heritage sites

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Outlander creator Diana Gabaldon today called for greater protection for heritage sites from the impact of over-tourism and threats from housing developments.

Speaking after being honoured for services to Scottish tourism, she said she was aware that of erosion problems caused by the number of visitors “trampling around” the site, near Inverness.

Outlander author Diana Gabaldon was recognised for services to Scottish tourism at VisitScotland's Thistle Awards this week.

The time-travel series of books and a hit TV adaptation follow the romantic adventures of Second World War nurse Claire Randall after she goes back in time to 18th century Scotland, where she falls for Jacobite warrior Jamie Fraser.

Gabaldon, who revealed she has almost finished the ninth novel in the series after starting work on it five years ago, spoke out months after it emerged a Clan Fraser memorial stone at Culloden, which has recorded a 66 per cent increased in visitors in the space of four years since the TV show began, had to be sealed off to allow turf repairs to be carried out.

Gabaldon, who has sold 35 million Outlander books sine 1991, vowed to continue speaking against “real estate firms” planning housing developments near sites like Culloden, saying she had been “appalled” at the insensitive promotion of some projects.

• READ MORE: Outlander season 5: Sam Heughan promises fans they won’t be disappointed

New research published this week by tourism agency VisitScotland revealed that visits to sites used as locations in the Sony-Starz TV series had leapt up by nearly 600,000 since it went into production.

There has been a 44 per cent increase in visitors to the official Glencoe visitor centre, a 42 per cent rise recorded at Blackness, in East Lothian, and a 30 per cent hike in the number of people flocking to Linlithgow Palace.

The Isle of Skye and Glenfinnan, which have strong links with Bonnie Prince Charlie, have also seen huge increases in visitor numbers since the TV show started.

However the National Trust for Scotland has urged the Scottish Government to give sensitive sites across the country much greater protection in future amid claims "Scotland's heritage is too often being cast aside for long-term economic gain."

Historians and academics have also warned that growing numbers are having an adverse impact on sites like Culloden amid growing reports of Outlander fans taking selfies and having picnics at.

However Gabaldon said it was important for measures to be put in place to ensure that historic sites were protected from both growing visitor numbers and new housing developments in future.

• READ MORE: Sam Heughan: Outlander’s value for Scotland is ‘grossly underestimated’

Gabaldon said: "I've been against building near the Culloden battlefield. I'm not a UK citizen, so I'm not allowed to sign petitions and thinks like that but I retweet campaigns and other movements.

"I was somewhat appalled that there was a development called Cairnfields. Do they even know what a cairn is and what they are building next to?

"I think there does have to be a great deal of protection for heritage sites and not just from commercial development - there is also the sheer friction of their popularity and the impact of people trampling around.

"The people at Culloden have not said anything to me directly but I've heard that they have been somewhat concerned that so many people have visited the Clan Fraser memorial stone they have worn away all of the grass around it.

"There is perhaps a need for more education at visitor centres to explain that this is a delicate environment and people should keep their visit as short and unobtrusive as possible."

Meanwhile Gabaldon has urged BBC Scotland to consider showing Outlander on its new channel - despite rumours they were put off by UK Government concerns that it was "anti-British."

The author said she hoped the show would eventually be seen by a mainstream television audience in the country where the show is made, in a converted warehouse in Cumbernauld, Lanarkshire.

New instalments of Outlander go out on the streaming service, while repeats are screened on Channel 4 spin-off More4.

Gabaldon said: "I've love Outlander to be shown on BBC Scotland. It would be great if they could do that.

"The BBC didn't take it the first time around. I don't see any reason why they wouldn't show it. We couldn't think of any reason to begin with.

"The rumour at the time Outlander came out was that (Prime Minister) David Cameron did not want the show shown because of the independence referendum because the show in anti-British. I don't know if there was anything to it. It didn't do the show any harm.

"I'd say to the BBC they should have a look at it. It would be great to have it on a mainstream channel. A lot of people in Scotland watch it on DVD. It's not a water-cooler show in the UK."


Helper (2) with Individualist (4)

2:4 When In Balance

The Helper (2) and Individualist (4) make a closely bonded, supportive, caring and loving combination. Both have high emotional fluency, and the world of feelings is center stage in this relationship. They openly share their thoughts, impressions and emotional responses with each other and can spend hours recounting the events of the day, their reactions and so forth. Together they create a safe haven to be real and authentic, and this can be a very healing relationship for both partners.

Helper (2)s are typically outward facing, social and comfortable interacting with a wide range of people. They can give the Individualist (4) confidence and energy to do the same by joining them socially. They are thoughtful, encouraging, patient, kind and considerate. They can make their Individualist (4) feel seen, something that is deeply healing for the Individualist (4).

Individualist (4)s bring emotional fearlessness, creativity, humor and broad picture thinking. They seek emotional honesty, and as they tend to be highly sensitive to arising conflicts, they are often the ones to bring up thorny issues. Individualist (4)s are deeply intuitive and can read the subtle undertones of a situation. They offer wise counsel to their Helper (2). More self-referencing, they give the Helper (2) permission to get in touch with their own needs and make themselves a priority.

Together they create a positive feedback loop, both admiring and appreciative of what the other brings. Both seek deep emotional connection, and they find it in each other. This is a couple known for its closeness.

2:4 The Downward Spiral

When fixated with tightening defenses, the emotional connection and intensity they share polarizes this couple. As both crave intimacy, they can spend a lot of time and energy processing small grievances and minor misunderstandings. Under stress with tightening defenses, this intensifies, and themes of insecurity, shame and blame enter the picture. Without a healthy mechanism to come back into balance, an endless loop of misunderstandings can begin, thus triggering the downward spiral.

The two types express their emotional needs very differently. Individualist (4)s are guided by their feelings, and their feelings are ever-changing. They need a lot of downtime to process their experiences and emotional energy, and this can be frustrating to the Helper (2) whowants a more engaged partner. With time, Helper (2)s can start to feel the Individualist (4) is self-absorbed, temperamental, testy and emotionally unpredictable. They may tire of the Individualist (4)’s negative self-image and difficulty accepting the nurturing the Helper (2) wants to provide.

The Individualist (4) can become suspicious of the Helper (2), as they see through their people-pleasing behavior and question its authenticity. They may feel smothered by the Helper (2), finding them needy and overly-involved. And because Individualist (4)s can be quite intuitive, they may tire of the often-unspoken need for appreciation coming from the Helper (2).

If the downward spiral gains momentum, the Helper (2) starts to feel increasingly unappreciated, and the Individualist (4) starts to feel increasingly misunderstood and alone. Both find each other emotionally needy and draining. Eventually one or both start to feel they would be better off without the relationship, and the relationship is in danger.


Systems, Science and FreeBSD

September 1, 2014

George Neville-Neil

Neville-Neil Consulting

What makes a platform suitable to both research and development? It is not simply the artifacts that are generated, but the tools that the platform brings to bear on evaluating the usefulness and quality of the research that is being undertaken. FreeBSD continues to push the boundaries of systems research through its adoption and extension of significant new technologies such as DTrace and LLVM.

This talk looks at how the latest tools and techniques are being applied to systems research and how the tools enable us to find deeper insights and more clearly communicate and share our results with other researchers.

George Neville-Neil

George Neville-Neil works on networking and operating system code for fun and profit. He also teaches various courses on subjects related to computer programming. His professional areas of interest include code spelunking, operating systems, networking and security. He is the co-author with Marshall Kirk McKusick and Robert Watson ofThe Design and Implementation of the FreeBSD operating system_ and is the columnist behind ACM Queue’s “Kode Vicious.” Mr. Neville-Neil earned his bachelor’s degree in computer science at Northeastern University in Boston, Massachusetts, and is a member of the ACM, the Usenix Association and the IEEE. He is an avid bicyclist and traveler who currently resides in New York City.


Events and Festivals in Laois

Midlands Park Hote

The Midlands plays host to various events and festivals. Often overlooked as a tourist destination but the county’s compact size makes it ripe for discovery of new and upcoming artists. With so much to offer including a range ofevents and festivals from music festivals to comedy shows.


The Need to Evolve Religion - A Thesis

I am currently working on my thesis that the popular understanding of religion needs to be evolved because the commonly accepted definition doesn’t include recent information we have acquired about ourselves and our cosmos. The current understanding of religion generally contextualizes itself in, and restricts itself to, a supernatural cosmology that prohibits a more sophisticated and scientific understanding of the subject. I am publishing my working draft here as a sketch of a work in progress, in the hope that it may be of interest to others and provide for a better understanding of what I am about theologically. It also serves to document the originality of my work.

While there is very little scholarly agreement on a definition of religion, for the purpose of discussion and mutual understanding, I define it as a universal human social behavior, through which people gather and work together to sacralize the values and symbols they hold in common.  Religion is the principal means by which human communities and cultures make sense of their lives and through which they inculcate, build and share meaning.

Religion is a socially shared spirituality. I define spirituality as an individual's socially constructed cognitive and emotional response to the existential question, "Why do I exist?" This question is a phenomenon of being self-conscious. We all respond to the question in our own unique way as informed by genetics, familial and cultural environment, personal experience, education, and a multitude of other factors. In essence, our spirituality is a description of how each of us makes sense of the ongoing experience of being alive in the world as we perceive it. Religion is done in the same way, but with much greater power because it employs a network of the collective knowledge, experience and thinking of many people.

Religious activity began at the very start of the emergence of our self-consciousness, in close association with the development of language and human culture.  As it still does, religion reflected the way we humans sought to understand the world around us and our relationship to it. In the beginning, our understanding was very limited. We had only simple language, no writing to record what we learned, and little in the way of collective information to help us understand our experience. Our reactions to what we experienced were more emotional than cognitive. At that point, it was natural for us to perceive almost everything that happened as magical because the nature of almost everything was unknown to us and we had only a nascent understanding of causality.

A primary characteristic of religion is its ability to provide human life with some form of benefit. This is particularly clear in the case of our early human ancestors who found themselves living in an unpredictable and often dangerous environment. They sought control over the mysterious forces to which they were subject everywhere and at all times of their lives. Perhaps instinctively, they recognized the importance of maintaining close social bonds with their immediate and extended family because it was much easier to deal with life as a group than to try and do it on one's own.

It is understandable that when these early people tried to comprehend what was going on around them they attributed the cause for their experience to powerful magical others like themselves that they could not see. They sought communication with these others in the hope of influencing them and mitigating their actions. These attempts to communicate through sounds and gestures became ritual. The use of ritual produced a sense of the sacred.  Some members of the clan became recognized for their skill in dealing with these powerful others and they too gained a sacred aura. Each clan developed their own religious beliefs, the rituals that expressed them, and the shamans who interpreted them through ritual, visions and the telling of sacred stories.

For our earliest ancestors, the world of things seen and things unseen was one world. The visible and the invisible were intertwined with, and inseparable from each other. The dual worlds of the physical and the spiritual, of the natural and the supernatural, did not yet exist in the human mind.

A marvelous and powerful synthesis began to develop and evolve. Religious behavior provided these early people with meaning. Meaning created a welcome environment for the development of language. The development of language encouraged cultural growth. Cultural growth led to the uniting of clans and the integrating of religion, the deepening of meaning and more advanced use of language and the sharing of ideas.

In evolutionary terms, cultures suddenly and rapidly produced civilizations that in turn produced ever more sophisticated religions, technology, wealth, intellectual accomplishments, arts, etc. While there were great differences between cultures in terms of language, religion, art and other expressions, they were subject to the same evolutionary process and held supernatural cosmologies based upon their religions.

This basic structure held solid until the 6th Century BCE when thinkers in Greece caused a tiny crack to appear in the foundation of reality. Represented by Thales of Miletus, these thinkers questioned the accepted fact that all truth is revealed to us from the divine gods. They dared to use the human power of investigative rationality to test the truths of and about the gods. This little crack grew slowly and steadily as rational thinking and methods evolved in various cultures.

About 1000 CE, the great Islamic thinker Ibn Al-Haytham developed what is possibly the earliest form of the modern scientific method. Some 500 years later, during the period we call the Enlightenment, the irrationality and lack of empirical evidence for supernatural cosmology became too clear for many scholars to ignore, and they began to assemble a new and increasingly rational understanding of the cosmos.

Over the centuries these two methods of understanding have separated into incompatible and separate cosmologies, although it is still common for people to unconsciously and irrationally mingle them. Historically, to be religious is to be one who has bound h/herself to a belief through vows of commitment. A belief can be supernatural for some people and completely natural for others. Today, the idea of truth sourced in powers and stories from beyond nature is dissonant with the scientific cosmological understandings that human reasoning and scientific investigation have discovered.  Although many people still find much comfort in believing in supernatural powers and the ancient stories and traditions, those who embrace the cosmology of modern science find it increasingly difficult to make sense and meaning from them.

We theologians have a large body of knowledge and experience concerning meaning. Theology deals with how human beings inculcate, share and maintain the meaning of human life, community and culture that is essential for our survival. Unfortunately, because we have been reluctant to deal with the difference between meaning itself and the symbols and myths that contain and convey it, we have remained theologically trapped in the prescientific cosmology of the supernatural. The result is that we theologians are finding ourselves excluded from much of the scholarly, intellectual and scientific discourse that is rationally working to understand who and what we are, and the nature of the cosmos in which we find ourselves.

It is my thesis that theology has a valid and vital contribution to make to the on-going search for the truth about ourselves, our understanding of our cosmos, and the meaning we draw from them. But to be a part of that conversation, I contend we theologians need to extend the definition of religion so as to be understood as a culturally universal behavior that is not confined to the realm of supernatural beliefs. We need to understand religion as being about meaning rather than gods. Meaning can be supernatural for some people and completely natural for others.  Theologians must acknowledge that theos is a human ideation produced by our vital search for essential and transcendent meaning, and subject to critical thought and evaluation.  We must rise to a perspective transcendent to the gods we have chosen and served. We must free ourselves from irrational supernatural thinking and reconceptualize ourselves as grounded in the nature of evolving contemporary cosmology. We must take on the daunting task of re-mythologizing our knowledge and get to work developing rich new symbols, narratives and liturgies in order to be able to facilitate making durable meaning in systematic harmony with the contemporary scientific worldview. I call this enlarged and more systematic activity of meaning-making, "nous-religion".

A Biology Teacher Ponders Death

On April 14, 2016, my friend Tony Krzysik suddenly died. Tony was a scientist and one of those larger-than-life characters who had a range of interests as wide as the river of life itself. He was a retired professor who had taught college chemistry, biology and physics among other things (his Ph.D. was in Bio-Ecology). Tony was a gourmet cook, lover of reptiles, fly fisherman, Audubon naturalist, car nut, Steelers fan, and something of a Mr. Rogers to the kids who found their way to the Highlands Center for Natural History in Prescott, Arizona. He could, and did, do everything.

My friendship with Tony was based upon our common interest in trying to raise awareness about the destructive effects of human activity on the global environment. We shared the sad view that the collapse of those systems which support much of life on this planet is immanent if we do not make rapid and radical changes in human life and culture now.

Shortly after his death, Tony's body was cremated and a Celebration of Life was held for him in the amphitheater of the Highlands Center on April 24, 2016.

The following is a reflection shared at the Celebration by Thomas Atkins, who knew Tony professionally and personally for many years. Tom describes himself as a "retired bio teacher". He might be a descriptive minimalist.

I was deeply moved by Tom's reflection because it managed to say something central to my theology. I believe it demonstrates better than anything I have found, that factual, even scientific narrative can be as much the basis for profound meaning as the greatest myths or stories of supernatural powers and heroes, depending upon how it is presented. It is the surprising product of the simple chemistry of combining truth with love.

I share Tom's words here in honor of the extraordinary life of Anthony J. Krzysik and in the hope that you will experience something extraordinary in this bio teacher's courageously honest reflection:

I had to ponder this as a biologist…  What exactly HAPPENED to my friend Tony?

Biologically, what is the end of life?

Life is funded by utilizing food to produce trillions upon trillions of protonsnaked hydrogen nuclei… each second!

These protons are produced… dammed up… and pass through an enzyme called ATP synthase.
They are tiny Nano motors which reconstruct ATP... Adenosine tri phosphate!

Thousands of ATP synthase molecules are found SPINNING AT 7000 RPM IN EVERY LIVING CELL WITHIN OUR BODIES.

Tony’s marvelous Nano motors, living within his 60 trillion cells, worked tirelessly for 73 years +9 months.

They made their final production delivery of ATP molecules shortly after his fall to the living room floor.

Without oxygen, these Nano motors slowthen come to a stop.

ATP, the energy molecule of the cell, can no longer be constructed.

The complex biochemical reactions in each cell that depend on ATP slowly ebb and cease as the last remaining stores of this ubiquitous molecule of cellular respiration are deconstructed for the last time…

It is not the end of his memes.

People we most love, do literally, become a physical part of us.  They are integrated within our brain structure, in the pathways where memories are created and stored!

His intellectual essence lives in us all; it lives on in the minds of people that have had contact with this man’s remarkable intelligence.

His memes live on in papers written late at night.

They reside in scientific journals.

They reside in the Internet’s electronic cloud.

All these have changed the future in ways yet unknown.

It is not the end of his matter.

The Earth Mother, warmed and powered by the sun, is infinitely patient.  But always in the end… FOR ALL OF US… this mother of our matter quietly and gently re-collects her elements.

Tony’s matter, his stardust, IN THIS LAST WEEK, has already lifted into the sky!

Upon their RELEASE… these tiny elements… these molecules… were IMMEDIATELY swept away by the wind and PHOTOSYNTHESIZED INTO THE BODIES of the mother’s PLANT LIFE!

It is Tony’s GATEWAY into the GREAT CYCLE!

Tony’s stardust currently… literally… is residing in THE MOTHER'S FAVORITE PLACES … her vast oceans… her great forests… her grasslands… her endless deserts!

They also reside in TONY'S FAVORITE PLACE, a quiet pond filled with waiting trout.

The Earth mother needs Tony’s universal Stardust for HER body for HER SOMA to use againand again… and again… and again… and again…  …and again……

Thank you Tony for having become an important part of my environment and my brain.  I miss you!

I Believe in Magic (In a Way)

One of my personal and professional life goals is to broaden the definition of theology.

Thanks in large part to my seminary mentor, Urban T. Holmes, III, I have always preferred to approach theology experientially and existentially rather than classically and dogmatically. The former begins with human questions. The latter begins with divine answers.

From its earliest times, theology has been identified with supernatural beings. It is completely understandable that once our species evolved self-consciousness, we sought to know where we were, how we got here, and our purpose for being here. We also desperately sought protection from the mysterious and fearsome forces of nature that surrounded us.  It follows that we believed that everything was under the control of spirit entities that were super-versions of ourselves. Whatever particular form individual cultures gave to these entities, their existence was an assumption. Theology began when some people began to try to understand and speak for them. I could say that these were the first clergy. But in a world that was totally magical, it is not a stretch to say that they were the first magicians. Theology began as the study of magic.

Magic is one of those elusive words. It can mean all sorts of things. It can be used to describe a sublime moment like a first kiss. It can refer to an experience of something that seems to have no rational causative explanation. It can be your uncle Joe who loves to make quarters appear from behind kid’s ears, or a grand televised illusion by David Copperfield. When I think of magic, I think of two of my favorite theologians, Penn and Teller.

I love those guys.  And yes, I very much consider them to be theologians. As I pointed out, theology began as the study of magic, and as I see it, despite all the science and academic sophistication it has acquired over the millennia since that beginning, it still is. People still seek it and others still provide it. The only difference lies in the fact that we now know how it works.

Penn and Teller know how it works.  And like all those who preceded them in the craft, they have made a very good living by giving us what we crave: a moment when causes and effects no longer apply and the impossible happens. How we crave that one precious moment when consequences don’t occur, responsibility is suspended and dreams come true despite all our failures and omissions.

Magicians refer to what they do as “illusions”. Most, like David Copperfield, do their magic and leave you in the ambiguity of the moment.  Did that happen? It seems impossible, and yet…?  They leave the delicious possibility of the impossible lingering on the hungry tongue.

Not so Penn and Teller. They perform some of the most complex illusions imaginable, but they always reveal how it was done. They understand that there is such a thing as magic, but it is a function of the human mind and perception, not a feature of cosmological reality. They want you to experience the beauty of the illusion, but they also want you to celebrate the self-knowledge that comes with knowing how it works.  They are theologians in the best traditions of the discipline.

Poetry, art, music, love, justice, freedom, (and lots of other magical things) are all illusions that we need and that we create. They are magical things that happen because we make them happen.

If our species is to continue on this planet, we must take responsibility for our religions: Patriotism, Nationalism, Capitalism, Militarism, Football and all Sportism, Christianity, Judaism, Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism, etc. etc.  They are not magic. They do not come from the gods.  They (and the gods we worship) are our creation… illusions we have made.  They are our own reflection.

It is time for us to embrace this fact and with full critical intentionality create illusions that will move us to bring about the best of all possible conditions for all of life on the planet… and the planet itself.

We have to mature quickly and get to work designing these masterful illusions now, if history is to continue.

If we pull it off, it will be the greatest magic trick ever. If we don't, we will all disappear as if by magic.

Everything matters.

Just Say'n...

Recently, I have been engaging with organizations that espouse a scientific and non-supernatural world-view. In the process, I have been reminded of how the terms we use when expressing ourselves can reveal the way we perceive reality.

I am a scientific thinker. That means that I accept that all we can reliably know about the cosmos in which is live is through the information we receive through sensory experience. In addition, this information must be cross identified and critically processed by others in a disciplined way that strives to eliminate subjective bias.

I do not accept the existence of a supernatural dimension in our cosmos simply because there is not one shred of empirical evidence in support of it. For the same reason I do not accept astrology, reincarnation, ghosts, magic, miracles, consciousness beyond death, or anything of the kind. I do not believe there is a God or even a mysterious designer behind the universe because the proven process of the evolution of life could not have happened as we know it happened, had a designer been involved in it.

It’s not that I am opposed to these common subjectively held ideas; I am not. I once held them myself.  I just do not see any empirical evidence in the cosmos to support them. I welcome the possibility of being given evidence of the supernatural and proven wrong.

Because I think this way, and after reading the Humanist Manifesto, one of the groups with which I have chosen to associate is the American Humanist Association. I find myself very comfortable with them.  However, and to my surprise, some of them are not very comfortable with me.

The problem is atheism.

If you read the third paragraph of this article, you have what most people would probably say is the very definition of atheism. But I am a theologian and I categorically deny being an atheist. That would be like a geologist denying the existence of rocks, or a biologist denying that there is anything called life.

I am of course aware that historically there has been a close identification of theos with God. We are creatures who are conscious of our own being. As a result, we are psychologically bedeviled by the need to know our purpose; the meaning of our existence. It is so strong a need that human beings do not thrive without it. Theos is whatever meaning or purpose we find in response to that need.

It is clear to me that our ancestors came up with gods early on in our cultural evolution as an explanation for why things are as they are, happen as they do, and why they were here. It was a perfectly reasonable idea given what little they actually knew about themselves and the cosmos at that time and for a very long while after.

However, despite the long history of our thinking that theos was one or another brand of god, it doesn’t mean that we have to remain loyal to that understanding despite having learned otherwise.

It is becoming ever clearer that the supernatural in all forms and the denizens that populate it were and are creations of the human mind in response to the existential question. We created the gods out of our need for theos. Now we are gaining ever more factual understanding of the cosmos and ourselves. In the process, we are moving away from the gods and magical thinking. But theos (purpose and meaning sustaining existence) remains an essential human need. We are responsible for responding to that need with all the intellectual, emotional and creative resources we can assemble. Everything depends upon our doing it well.

I do not believe in God, gods, the supernatural or any entities that inhabit it.

I am a scientific theologian who accepts the cosmos as it is currently understood by science. At the same time, I rationally understand and identify myself as a theist. There is no contradiction in these stances.

If some people feel the need to find their meaning by being against rather than for something, I beg them to find something other than "theist" to be “A”.

Theology As Art

In the past year, I discovered the work of the late Leonard Shlain who introduced me to the connection between art and physics. Shalin documented how artists had, in their work, presaged all the major cognitive shifts that occurred as a result of the work of scientists.

Apparently, this idea has been quietly growing in my mind because in the past few days I have been enjoying something of a paradigm shift in the way I understand the work of theology.  Most of my theological work has been an effort to try to make clear statements about theological ideas and then test them against the fund of human knowledge and experience. This process has its merits, but it almost inevitably leads to deciding what is correct on a right/wrong, black/white, or true/false axis. Meaning, which is the subject of theology, is almost never reducible to such absolute categories.

I have suddenly become aware that doing theology is much more like painting. Artists begin a painting with a vision; an image of something in their mind. It may be entirely imaginative, or it may be something that they see in the world about them. In either case, it translates to a mental image and it is this that the artist then labors to recreate on the canvas.

There is no true or false in the effort to express the image in the mind on the surface of the canvas. There is no right or wrong color. There is only the artist's struggle to use whatever colors, textures, brush strokes, and whatever else can be called into play to translate what she "sees" in her mind into the terms of paint and canvas in the hope that the viewer will "get it".

Opthe is a vision within my mind that gives meaning to everything I think and do. I now see that my task is not so much to share the critical thinking that I am certain is vital to holding meaning that is healthy and enduring. What I really need to be doing is working to become a theological artist. I want to do what I can to create representations of the power and beauty of what I see in such a way that others can engage it... and maybe even "get it".

It feels like it's the right thing to do.

So Far, So Good...

That's the punch line to the old joke set up by asking what an optimist says after having fallen off the top of a sky scraper, notes he has plummeted about half the distance to the ground.

I'm very optimistic about this new year.  After more than half of a century of trying to work out a spirituality that can provide human life with profound meaning and which is in harmony with what we know and experience of the cosmos in which we exist, I am satisfied that I have accomplished my objective. Now it is a matter of working out the details of the model and living it out in the most authentic way possible. The Opthe website is a key part of doing that.

On a more academic level, it has become something of a mission for me to do all I can to expand and broaden the common understanding of the discipline of theology. I do theology as a science in the same way that fields like psychology, sociology, and anthropology are sciences.

While meaning is as important to human survival as are air and water, meaning must be subject to the same rigorous rational examination and testing as any other area of human knowledge if it is to be able to withstand the stresses and crises that confront us in life.

In the middle ages, theology was considered the queen of sciences and I deem it to be so today. Whatever meaning we make of our existence, if it is be sound and durable, it must be built upon and tested against a solid understanding of all the other arts and sciences; the fund of human knowledge and experience. Its thinking must be done with the same intellectual rigor and discipline as physics and philosophy. Theological thinking cannot be limited to the definitions or doctrines of any particular brand of faith. Moreover, it cannot be excused from testing through appeals to magic or the supernatural.

With the foregoing in mind, and as a part of Opthe, I am setting up a colloquy for innovative and systematic theological discussion. It's my hope that it will attract professional and amateur theologians who are willing to participate in the dialogue necessary to expand theology as a discipline. It is my view that this is critical for human survival because we live in a time when our spiritual models have failed and we have nothing to replace them.

Today is the 70th New Year of my life... the first day of 2015.

So far, so good.

This Feels Like Home...

The fact that you are reading this means that I have finally managed to get this new site configured correctly enough that it is now fully live on the web. I'm very excited about it because it has a look and feel that I have been seeking to achieve for some time now.

In the last year or so, my theological work has brought me to a place where I find myself having developed an intellectually and emotionally authentic spirituality that is more trustworthy and meaningful to me than anything I have ever known before.

I am a monastic in the ancient meaning of the word, living my life in focus on a singular praxis of commitment to altruistically serving all of life and the earth. I am also a monastic in the modern sense in that my monastery is in the Arizona residence I share with Annie, Kyle, and our three cats, as well as in this electronic place that glows from the screen before me. This modern virtual monastery allows an imaginative expression far more creative than any stone structure and provides a landscape of communication practically without limit.

Opthe is the product of over half a century of disciplined theological study and experience. It is still growing and evolving because we are constantly gaining new bits of knowledge and experience that modify the information strings holding together the sense we make of life and the cosmos.

My intention is to share as much of myself and and my monastery (Optheum) as I can with those who pass by. If what you find here interests you in some way, please accept my invitation to stop and share a bit of your story.  Your company will be very welcome and you can stay and participate for as long as your interest and inclinations lead you.

Happy first day of Winter.


Why It’s Time for Public Speaking Tech in the College Classroom

When it comes to most college-level classes, you’d think we’d have a firm grip on how to give data-driven feedback to students. But when it comes to public speaking, we’re still decades in the past. The modern public speaking class comes down to subjective analysis and verbal recommendations based on short exposures to the students’ actual skill levels as speakers. Here’s why it’s time for public speaking tech to start driving the feedback in the college classroom.

Subjective feedback is less effective

Most college students start out their first day of a public speaking course, if it’s even offered or required, with a full syllabus. By the end of their course, they’ll have written feedback, group feedback, and maybe even some recordings of their performances. But how is a student supposed to bring that all together?

Practice will garner some improvement with coaching and feedback from the instructor, but that feedback usually isn’t based on hard data; it’s based on human perception. And human perception (especially memory) is not 100% consistent or even accurate. Students need targeted, specific feedback with measurable ways to track their progress over time. That’s where public speaking tech comes in.

(Better) practice makes perfect

In an ideal world, a student’s practice environment would be as like a performance setting as possible for every single practice session. But often students in these classes are practicing in front of a mirror, friends, or classmates. They only have so many opportunities in these packed classes to perform in front of a real audience. That’s where they get the biggest bang for their buck as developing public speakers, but oddly they have the least access to it. There are too many students to make time for everyone to perform with the consistency necessary for real improvement.

What students really need is an accessible practice space to get continuous, trackable feedback that simulates the real experience of presenting as much as possible. The key to our own approach to public speaking tech is creating an accessible practice space with responsive avatars to provide in-the-moment behavioral feedback.

Immediate feedback is critical to performance gains

Entering the PitchVantage system, you immediately get a sense of the power of the simulation on your performance. Sounding monotone? Our avatars might whip out their phones as they seem to tune out of a student’s performance. Speaking too quietly? Get ready to see some frowning from the audience. This is the most authentic way to practice because students learn how to read their audience and actively optimize their performance during the presentation. Many classrooms operate on a system of giving a performance, expecting a grade a week later. But with public speaking tech, the feedback is instantaneous and self-reflective. Students can see the audience struggling to attend to your talking points, so they can actively adjust their speech to accommodate. After the presentation is finished in the simulation, the system provides data driven feedback based on each second of the performance. Human evaluators and instructors just can’t do this— they can provide a general perception of the total performance, but not at the granular level that data provides.

It benefits professors too

The benefit to the students is clear— but how would this affect how professors organize their courses? With this simulation-based software, professors could track students’ practice sessions and their progress over time. The grading practically writes itself. Professors would have the data necessary to fully customize their curriculum based on any cohort of students. They could target issues that most students struggled with during a certain time, create break-out groups to focus on specific issues like volume variability or pauses, or even focus completely on crafting content for speeches for a variety of environments. Instead of slogging through impersonal lectures and tedious grading, data can lead the way to a more effective college classroom.

Public speaking can pave the way for future success

So why are public speaking skills so important? Communication is the foundation of our social and professional lives. The Association of American Colleges and Universities recently reported the 72% of college graduates were unprepared for employment due to a lack of communication skills. Basic communication comes naturally, but professional communication takes practice. And public speaking tech can provide students with the skills they’ll need to excel in their careers. Not only will they gain better communication skills, but learning to review highly relevant data and applying that information is a coveted skill for most employers. Public speaking also builds a long-lasting foundation in other areas, like leadership, corporate storytelling, and even confidence.

Curious to learn more about the impact of public speaking tech in the college classroom? Request a live demo to see for yourself.


Chinese General Says ‘Contain the United States’ by Attacking Its Finances

By Joshua Philipp, The Epoch Times
February 16, 2016 Updated: February 18, 2016

A major general in the Chinese military is calling for China to contain the United States by attacking its finances.

“That’s the way to control America’s lifeblood,” writes Maj. Gen. Qiao Liang, a professor at the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) National Defense University, in an op-ed published in China Military Online, the official mouthpiece of the PLA.

“To effectively contain the United States, other countries shall think more about how to cut off the capital flow to the United States while formulating their strategies,” he writes.

Qiao then praises the economic impact on the United States caused by the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. He states, “Apart from political and mental impact, a much heavier blow was that it drove more than US$300 billion out of the country within a month.”

The U.S. has been in a protracted economic war that includes information war and financial war—and it’s increasing.
— Casey Fleming, CEO, BLACKOPS Partners Corporation

Proposed Chinese strategies such as this should be taken seriously, according to Casey Fleming, CEO of BLACKOPS Partners Corporation, which provides intelligence and cyber strategy to the Fortune 500.

“It’s extremely critical. It’s extremely serious,” said Fleming, noting that China is already waging a full-scale economic war on the United States using methods including cyberattacks, conventional espionage, and currency manipulation.

“The financial throttling is all part of economic warfare,” Fleming said. “The United States has been in a protracted economic war that includes information war and financial war—and it’s increasing.”

Qiao is one of the leading voices on China’s uses of economic warfare, and its broader military strategies using unconventional warfare.

In 1999, when Qiao was still a colonel, he co-authored the book “Unrestricted Warfare” with another colonel, Wang Xiangsui.

In “Unrestricted Warfare,” Qiao and Wang promoted the use of terrorism, cyberattacks, legal warfare (also called “lawfare”), and economic warfare against the United States.

Qiao and Wang argued that the U.S. military limits its view of military advancement to technology, and largely ignores unconventional warfighting environments—especially when it comes to economic attacks. They said the United States was vulnerable in this regard, and that China could target these vulnerabilities militarily.

While “Unrestricted Warfare” was published 17 years ago, many of the strategies it proposed can now be seen playing out. It has remained one of the main texts cited by experts on the Chinese regime’s use of cyberattacks and other forms of unconventional warfare.

Qiao’s recent op-ed plays with some similar concepts, but says the Chinese military should leverage geopolitics to attack the United States financially.

In Russia’s case, he notes, it exports oil, gas, and mineral resources to support its economy. “If anything happened at any geopolitical juncture—for instance, if a country cut off its oil and gas pipeline, that would directly affect its economy,” he states. “That’s why geopolitics is so important for countries like Russia.”

Noting the importance of geopolitics to a nation’s finances, Qiao argues that China should place strategic importance on key shipping channels—including the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait, Gwadar Port, and the China–Pakistan Railway.

“From geopolitics to currency-politics and to the current age that we can hardly name yet,” he states, “only those who can adapt to changes will be the final winner.”


Can the Mercury in Your Dental Fillings Poison You?

cover - THE TOXIC TIME BOMB - Sam ZiffA significant and shocking exposé of one of the greatest health dangers of our time. The amalgam used to fill teeth is 40 to 50 percent mercury, a known poison. This book explains how mercury migrates from the teeth into the body, affecting our overall health in a dramatic manner. This groundbreaking book includes the following topics and questions:

Mercury in Medicine and Dentistry.
The History of Mercury in Medicine.
The Arguments For and Against.
Do we really have electricity in our mouths?
Measurement of Mercury in the urine
How long does it stay in the body?
Mercury in the body, where does it go?
Does Mercury cause any changes in our tissues and organs?
Does Mercury cause psychiatric and behavioral changes?
Micromercurialism, signs and symptoms

“Silver Dental Fillings alerts the reader to the need for more research and understanding of the role that mercury amalgam may have on chronic health dysfunction.” —Jeffery Bland, Ph. D.

ISBN 0-943358-24-8
ISBN-13: 978-0-943358-24-6

Paperback • 288 Pages • 6” x 9”


About Us

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        Since its inception, has always been good faith management, the benefit of the community as the company, and constantly to achieve the goal of satisfying the enterprise and efforts. With the power of science and technology, wisdom and culture, the Fuerte Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd. in the flying development of the industry growth for a very satisfactory enterprise, that is, customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction, the partners are satisfied, is the director of the refinement of the service, the brand consumption enjoyment.

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        The fulter hope in the future market, by the sword of the spirit beyond the fulter.

        Fulter pursuit is always to create, is the concept of integrity is always fulter.

        Fulter people know: the management is the soul of the enterprise, employees of the enterprise, the enterprise is the quality of life, reputation is the day.

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American Justice - Netflix

Posted by Editor on Thu 20 June 2019

American Justice - Netflix

Type: Reality

Languages: English

Status: Running

Runtime: 59 minutes

Premier: 2017-03-21

American Justice - Supreme Court of the United States - Netflix

American Justice - Federal versus state power - Netflix

There has been debate throughout American history about the boundary between federal and state power. While Framers such as James Madison and Alexander Hamilton argued in The Federalist Papers that their then-proposed Constitution would not infringe on the power of state governments, others argue that expansive federal power is good and consistent with the Framers' wishes. The Tenth Amendment to the United States Constitution explicitly grants “powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” The Supreme Court has been criticized for giving the federal government too much power to interfere with state authority. One criticism is that it has allowed the federal government to misuse the Commerce Clause by upholding regulations and legislation which have little to do with interstate commerce, but that were enacted under the guise of regulating interstate commerce; and by voiding state legislation for allegedly interfering with interstate commerce. For example, the Commerce Clause was used by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals to uphold the Endangered Species Act, thus protecting six endemic species of insect near Austin, Texas, despite the fact that the insects had no commercial value and did not travel across state lines; the Supreme Court let that ruling stand without comment in 2005. Chief Justice John Marshall asserted Congress's power over interstate commerce was “complete in itself, may be exercised to its utmost extent, and acknowledges no limitations, other than are prescribed in the Constitution.” Justice Alito said congressional authority under the Commerce Clause is “quite broad.” Modern day theorist Robert B. Reich suggests debate over the Commerce Clause continues today. Advocates of states' rights such as constitutional scholar Kevin Gutzman have also criticized the Court, saying it has misused the Fourteenth Amendment to undermine state authority. Justice Brandeis, in arguing for allowing the states to operate without federal interference, suggested that states should be laboratories of democracy. One critic wrote “the great majority of Supreme Court rulings of unconstitutionality involve state, not federal, law.” However, others see the Fourteenth Amendment as a positive force that extends “protection of those rights and guarantees to the state level.”

American Justice - References - Netflix


Budget is our income and sometimes this is positive. I need to make this column in a query all negitive values. I am using the IIf function but it is not working. Budget: [budget_amount] IIf ([budget_amount] >=0, [budget_amount]*-1, [budget_amount]) or is there another function I could use? On Mon, 29 Oct 2007 19:18:00 -0700, Tamm Fox wrote: > Budget is our income and sometimes this is positive. I need to make this > column in a query all negitive values. > > I am using the IIf function but it is not working. > > Budget: [budget_amount] IIf ([budget_amount] &g...

Hi Scott, I had a question regarding the sequential numbering Apex example…I am looking to automatically restart the sequence every month, which is not a problem using your example (i.e. changing the year to month in the expression). However, I would also like to add in a condition for year, so that the sequence restarts for each month of each year (i.e. my problem is for example that Feb 2011 last sequence number is 5, and then in Feb 2012 this becomes 6, where I would like it to be 1). I am wondering what the syntax would be. Thanks in advance, Lawn.
For example, (M, A, R, Y) is a sequence of letters with the letter 'M' first and 'Y' last. This sequence differs from (A, R, M, Y). Also, the sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8), which contains the number 1 at two different positions, is a valid sequence. Sequences can be finite, as in these examples, or infinite, such as the sequence of all even positive integers (2, 4, 6, ...). In computing and computer science, finite sequences are sometimes called strings, words or lists, the different names commonly corresponding to different ways to represent them in computer memory; infinite sequences are called streams. The empty sequence ( ) is included in most notions of sequence, but may be excluded depending on the context.