War is killing everything!

May 28, 2019 in Syria

These images show damage of the main strategic crops of Syria during 26 & 27 May, 2019 as a result of Syrian regime forces and their allies offensive against the rebel areas in the southern of Idleb and north of Hama provinces.

The ongoing hostilities show fires in wheat and barley crops during harvest season in the region. These fires, triggered by bombings, destroyed staple crops such as wheat and barley, compounding the already fragile humanitarian conditions in the area. The fires were sparked by intense bombing in the area.

Over the last few days, more than 200,000 square meters of Wheat and barley were burned in the southern of Idlib and the northern of Hama provinces.

Besides that, thousands of farmers left their cultivated areas and hundreds of agriculture projects. Additionally, most of the agriculture equipment have been damaged or stolen.

War is killing everything!

Who will reimburse them?

Crisis in Syria:

The nine-year Syrian crisis continues to drive humanitarian needs. The main driver of food insecurity continues to be population displacement. Despite decreased levels of conflict in many areas, its relenting presence has led to sustained hostilities, protracted displacement, increased returns and persistent erosion of communities’ resilience. Within the country, where 6.2 million people remain displaced and 1.4 million have returned, resources are increasingly depleted. Externally, the precarious situation continues to propel the largest refugee crisis in the world. More than eight in 10 people in the Syrian Arab Republic now live below the poverty line. The loss or lack of sustained livelihoods has led to the adoption of decreased coping strategies. Reduced productive assets and savings, limited economic prospects and the extensive damage and contamination of agriculture-related infrastructures have had a significant socioeconomic impact on the population and significantly disrupted agricultural livelihoods. Pockets of chronic levels of deprivation is adding to people’s adoption of negative coping mechanisms, such as reduced food consumption, according to FAO.

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Mon Jun 3, 2019 01:57PM [Updated: Mon Jun 3, 2019 02:37PM ]
This picture taken on November 9, 2017 shows US President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leaving a business leaders event at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. (Photo by AFP)

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman says the US trade war against China is a result of Washington’s bullying attitude, adding that this is a form of “economic terrorism,” which the United States has likewise waged against the Islamic Republic.

Abbas Moussavi made the remarks on Monday when asked about the ongoing trade war between the United States and China.

“The United States treats China through a bullying approach and is trying to superimpose political considerations on economic realities. The Islamic Republic of Iran believes that this issue is a form of economic terrorism and must be condemned,” he said.

Ties between China and the United States come under increasing strain due to a bitter trade war. Tensions have further risen over the sailing of American warships and warplanes near a chain of islands in the South China Sea which Beijing claims as its own territory.

US President Donald Trump initiated the trade war with China last year, when he first imposed unusually heavy tariffs on imports from the country. Since then, the world’s two largest economies have exchanged tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade.

The two sides have held talks to settle the issue, but all to no avail so far. Their latest round of trade negotiations ended last month without conclusion, with Trump accusing Beijing that it had “reneged” on its previous promises to make structural changes to its economic practices.

They have yet to set a date to resume the talks, with the US president announcing an increase of tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and Beijing hiking its own tariffs on $60 billion worth of American products.

China strongly opposes the US tariff hikes, saying they are harmful not only to China and the US, but to the whole world. Washington, for its part, says a primary goal of the aggressive tariff strategy is to decrease the trade imbalance with China, which totaled $379 billion in 2018.

Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen, who has been part of China’s negotiating team, said on Sunday that the United States cannot use pressure to force a trade deal with China, as Beijing warns that while it seeks resolution to the persisting Sino-US trade war through talks, there will be no compromise on core principles.

“If the US side wants to use extreme pressure, to escalate the trade friction, to force China to submit and make concessions, this is absolutely impossible,” he said.

Read more:

Elsewhere in his remarks, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the approach adopted by the Trump administration only creates tension and crisis, adding that it has not only led to Washington’s “irresponsible withdrawal from international agreements like the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 group, and the re-imposition of illegal and unilateral sanctions on nations, but has been also witnessed in the trade war against China.”

In May 2018, Trump withdrew Washington from the nuclear accord, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and decided to re-impose unilateral sanctions against Tehran.

Under the JCPOA, reached in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries -- the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China plus Germany, Iran undertook to put limits on its nuclear program in exchange for the removal of nuclear-related sanctions.

Read more:

Moussavi also emphasized, “The trade war between China and the US during past months is one of the most important international challenges with far-reaching reverberations, which go beyond bilateral ties between these two countries and can harm the development and prosperity of the entire world.”

According to statistics and analyses, the US administration's approach, which has led to the ongoing trade war with China, can reduce up to 600 billion dollars from the world's gross domestic product within the next two years, the Iranian diplomat said.

"This means the spread of poverty and the decline of welfare and living standards across the world,” he emphasized.

The Iranian spokesman advised the US administration to make a "serious revision to its approach to international trends and the way it faces realities such as the rising to eminence of other power players and the relative decline of US power in the world."

"We believe that the US attempt to maintain [its] previous [global] standing through imposing unusual costs on others is doomed to failure and is not consistent with the ongoing rapid developments and the international pyramid of power,” Moussavi pointed out.


Softball Falls in 11 Innings, 1-0, at UAlbany on Sunday.

Albany, N.Y. -- The UMBC Softball team battled for 11 innings, but ultimately fell to two-time defending conference champion UAlbany, 1-0, on Sunday.

Courtney Coppersmith (York, Pa.) took the tough-luck loss, pitching all 10-plus innings and allowing just the one earned run, while striking out six, walking one and allowing six hits.

UMBC (24-21, 5-10 AE) was no-hit until the top of the seventh, when Maddie Daigneau (New River, Ariz.) hit a leadoff single. She eventually made her way to third, but was stranded. Valerie Hammett (Mechanicsville, Md.) would start the top of the eighth with a singl, but again the Great Danes were able to keep the Retrievers off the board.

Julia Keffler (Huntingtown, Md.) hit a leadoff single in the ninth and moved over on a Daigneau sacrifice bunt. Coppersmith then walked to put two on, but the Retrievers again couldn't capitalize. Hammett would reach on an error to start the tenth, but was eventually stranded.

UAlbany (25-13, 12-2 AE) would then wain the game in the bottom of the 11th after a walk and a pair of singles.

UMBC returns home to close out the regular season with a three-game series against Hartford. The Friday doubleheader begins at 1 p.m., with Senior Day festivites taking place before the 1 p.m. game on Saturday.


Market Forces

Not all fossil fuel subsidies are created equal, all are bad for the planet

This is part two of a five-part series exploring Policy Design for the Anthropocene,” based on a recent Nature Sustainability Perspective. The first post explored the intersection of policy and politics in the development of instruments to help humans and systems adapt to the changing planet.

A recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper made headlines by revealing that the world is subsidizing fossil fuels to the tune of $5 trillion a year. Every one of these dollars is a step backward for the climate. That much is clear.

Instead of subsidizing fossil emissions, each ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted should be appropriately priced. That’s also where it’s important to dig into the numbers.

It’s tempting to go with the $5 trillion figure, as it suggests a simple remedy: remove the subsidies. At one level, that is precisely the right message. But the details matter, and they go well beyond the semantics of what it means to subsidize something.

Direct subsidies are large

The actual, direct subsidies—money flowing directly from governments to fossil fuel companies and users—are “only” around $300 billion per year. That is still a huge number, and it may well be an underestimate at that. The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2014, which took a closer look at fossil subsidies than reports since, put the number closer to around $500 billion; a 2015 World Bank paper provided more detailed methodologies and a range of between $500 billion and $2 trillion.

What all these estimates have in common is that they stick to a tight definition of a subsidy:

Subsidy (noun, \ ˈsəb-sə-dē \)

“a grant by a government to a private person or company to assist an enterprise deemed advantageous to the public,” per  Merriam-Webster.

These taxpayer-funded giveaways are not only not “advantageous to the public,” they also ignore the enormous now-socialized costs each ton of CO2 emitted causes over its lifetime in the atmosphere. (Each ton emitted today stays in the atmosphere for dozens to hundreds of years.)

The direct subsidies also come in various shapes and forms—from some countries keeping the cost of gasoline artificially low, to a $1 billion tax credit for “refined coal” in the United States.

Indirect subsidies are significantly larger

The vast majority of the IMF’s total $5 trillion figure is the unpriced socialized cost of each ton of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere. Each ton, the IMF estimates conservatively, causes about $40 in damages over its lifetime in today’s dollars.

Depending on one’s definition of a subsidy, this may well qualify. It’s a grant from the public to fossil fuel producers and users—something the public pays for in lives, livelihoods and other unpriced consequences of unmitigated climate change.

The remedy here is very different than removing direct government subsidies. It’s to price each ton of CO2 emitted for less to be emitted. The principle couldn’t be simpler: “When something costs more, people buy less of it,” as Bill Nye imbued memorably on John Oliver’s Last Week Tonight recently.

All that goes well beyond semantics of what it means to subsidize. One policy is to remove a tax loophole or another kind of subsidy, the other is to introduce a carbon price. The politics here are very different.

Unpriced climate risks might be much larger still

The $5 trillion figure also hides something else. By using a $40-per-ton figure, the IMF focuses on a point estimate for each ton of CO2 emitted, and a conservative one at that. The number comes from an estimate produced by President Obama’s Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon. That’s a good starting point, certainly a better one than the current Administration’s estimate.

But even the $40 figure is conservative. It captures what was quantifiable and quantified at the time. It does not account for many known yet still-to-be-quantified damages. It does not account for risks and uncertainties, the vast majority of which would push the number significantly higher still.

In short, the $5 trillion figure may well convey a false sense of certainty.

In some sense, little of that matters. The point is: there is a vast thumb on the scale pushing the world economy toward fossil fuels, the exact opposite of what should be done to ensure a stable climate.

In another very real sense, the different matters a lot: Politics may trump all else, but policy design matters, too.

By now the task is so steep that it’s simply not enough to say we need to price emissions and leave things at that. Yes, we need to price carbon, but we also need to subsidize cleaner alternatives—in the true sense of what it means to subsidize: to do so for the benefit of the public. Whether that comes under the heading of a “Green New Deal” or not, it is a much more comprehensive approach than one single policy instrument.

This is party 2 of a 5-part series exploring policy solutions outlined in broad terms in Policy Design for the Anthropocene.” Part 3 will focus on “Coasian” rights-based instruments, taking a closer look at tools that limit overall pollution to create markets where there were none before.

Also posted in Economics, Social Cost of Carbon / Leave a comment

How smart congestion pricing will benefit New Yorkers

This post was co-authored with Maureen Lackner

Last week, New York became the first American city to adopt congestion pricing—a move that should benefit both the city’s crumbling transit system and the environment.

In highly dense areas such as lower Manhattan – where valuable road space is quite limited by its urban geography — congestion pricing allows for a better management for improving vehicle traffic flow. Since the 1950s, economists and transportation engineers have advocated for this market-based measure, which encourages drivers to consider the social cost of each trip by imposing an entrance fee to certain parts of cities—in this case, Manhattan below 60th street. These fees should both discourage driving, thus reducing traffic, while—in New York’s case—raising needed funds for the subway and city buses. These pricing plans have been successful in reducing congestion in places like Singapore and parts of Europe. They have provided additional social benefits, like reducing asthma attacks in children in Stockholm by almost half and cutting traffic accidents in London by 40 percent.

New York will formally introduce this policy instrument in 2021. And while many of the pricing decisions have been deferred, 80 percent of the revenue collected will go to the subway and bus network; 10 percent will go to New York’s commuter rail systems that serve the city. Those setting rates can look to existing pricing models and research to price for success.

Cristobal Ruiz-Tagle, an EDF High Meadows Fellow, spoke with Juan Pablo Montero – a leading environmental economist, fellow Chilean and member of our Economics Advisory Council – about his research on congestion pricing, and what New Yorkers can and should expect.

CRT: What’s the best case scenario of New Yorkers with this pricing plan?

JPM: The latest report from INRIX ranked New York as the fourth most congested city in the United States. New Yorkers lose an average of 133 hours per year in congestion—just sitting in a car and not moving, or moving very slowly. The cost of congestion per year in New York is $9.5 billion—the largest cost in the country. So that’s the starting point.

 To solve the problem, you need to set the congestion fee sufficiently high. In Santiago, we ran a study and found it should be around $14 per day. In New York as far as I understand, they’re proposing for passenger vehicles of around $12. It’s a little lower than what we see in London (£ 11.50), but I expect New Yorkers are still going to get most of the benefit from less congestion.

 The most important element of the plan is what you do with the resources collected. The proposal here is to improve public transportation. We did a study on this in Santiago and showed that if you don’t put the money back into the transportation system, the poor will be much worse off. We’re proposing something similar in Santiago–that you use the funds to both improve infrastructure and lower fares. That’s the only way to do it without turning it into a regressive policy.

CRT: Are there other benefits to these plans besides reducing traffic and improving public transportation?

 JPM: Maybe people will starting using bike lanes more frequently—or people are willing to walk more because their public transportation is better. There could be more outdoor activities. Those additional benefits are important, but they’re hard to quantify.

 CRT: In addition to a congestion pricing plan, London also has a pollution fee, which started on April 8th. Do you think these kinds of fees will further reduce emissions and improve health? Or is there something else that should be considered?

JPM: They should, but it’s important to understand the local vehicle fleet—especially how old it is. The cars that contribute the most to local air pollution are very old cars. In terms of global pollutants—namely CO2—they’re roughly the same. Local pollutants—nitrogen oxides, fine particulate matter, etc., are much worse in older fleets. So if the fleet is new—younger than 10 years—you may not see as much as a reduction as if the fleet is very old or if you have ban on diesel pollution. People with lower incomes are more likely to leave their cars at home when charged for driving or with a congestion fee—and they tend to use older vehicles that emit more pollution.

 CRT: The age of local fleets has been important in other parts of the world, right? Especially when cities tried non-market-based measures like vehicle restrictions.

 JPM: Yes, Mexico City placed a uniform restriction on vehicles in 1989 without making any distinction between newer, cleaner cars and older, dirtier ones. You could only drive your car into the city for a limited number of days per week, so people went out and bought second cars that they could then use on the off days. And the cars they bought were older, which were dirtier. So in that way, the plan backfired.

CRT: It sounds like there are many ways to structure these congestion pricing plans:

JPM: Yes. There are ways to introduce dynamic pricing. You don’t want to keep these prices fixed forever in case the policy response wasn’t as expected. Ideally, you want to change prices based on location and time of day. This may eventually happen, but I don’t think it’s prudent to push for that today. Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

We are finally seeing this policy instrument taken seriously—and it will be very interesting to see which city is next. LA? Seattle? Washington, DC?

Congestion pricing should provide New Yorkers with a number of benefits, including cleaner air, better public health and a modernized public transit system, all while reducing that maddening gridlock in downtown Manhattan. EDF is part of a coalition of groups supporting New York’s congestion pricing plan.

Posted in Markets 101 / Leave a comment

How reverse auctions can help scale energy storage

This post is co-authored with Maureen Lackner

Just as reverse auctions have helped increase new renewable energy capacity, our new policy brief for the Review of Environmental Economics and Policy argues they could also be an effective approach for scaling energy storage.

Why we need energy storage

Voters have spoken, and states are moving toward cleaner electricity. Legislatures in Hawaii and California passed mandates for 100 percent clean energy in the electricity sector, and governors in Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Maine, and Michigan have all made similar 100 percent clean energy promises in recent months. These ambitious targets will require large-scale integration of wind and solar energy, which can be unpredictable and intermittently available. Cost-effective energy storage solutions can play a leading role to provide clean, reliable electricity—even when the sun isn’t shining and wind isn’t blowing.

Energy storage systems—ranging from lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries to hydroelectric dams—can provide a wide array of valuable grid services. Their ability to bank excess energy for use at a later date makes them particularly well-suited to address the intermittency challenge of wind and solar. In some cases, energy storage systems are also already cost-competitive with natural gas plants.

However, in order to reach ambitious clean energy targets, we’ll likely need to close a large energy storage gap. One recent estimate suggests approximately 10,000 Gigawatt hours (GWh) of energy storage may be needed to support a two-thirds renewables domestic electricity mix. In our policy brief, we estimate the United States currently has no more than 10 percent of this utility-scale energy storage capacity available; the actual quantity is likely much lower. Developing vast levels of energy storage will likely be an important factor toward integrating a greater share of renewables into the energy mix. Smart policy design can help drive energy storage prices even further below current historic lows, while ensuring these technologies are procured cost-effectively.

A path forward: using reverse auctions to scale energy storage

Reverse auctions have already helped scale renewables and, when designed well, may also be an effective tool when applied to energy storage. In a reverse auction, multiple sellers submit bids to a single buyer for the right to provide a good or service. In the case of renewables, developers bid to provide a portion of capacity desired by the buyer, typically a utility. This policy tool is gaining in popularity, because, if designed well, it can drive down bid prices and ensure reliable procurement. Globally, the share of renewables capacity procured through reverse auctions is expected to grow from 20 percent in 2016 to more than 50 percent in 2022. It seems likely that auction-induced competition has triggered a fall in renewable prices that some are calling the “Auctions Revolution.”

While examples in Colorado and Hawaii suggest reverse auctions can be effective in procuring energy storage, there’s little guidance on tailoring them for that purpose. We offer five recommendations:

1: Encourage a Large Number of Auction Participants

The more developers bidding into an auction, the fiercer the competition. How policymakers approach this depends on their end goal. In a 2016 Chilean auction, bidding was open to solar and coal developers, and policymakers were pleased when solar developers offered cheaper bids on a dollar per megawatt-hour basis than coal developers. Another approach: signaling consistent demand through auction schedules. Participation in South African renewable auctions increased after auction organizers took steps to give advance notice and instructions for future regular auctions.

2: Limit the Amount of Auctioned Capacity

If competition still seems tepid, auctioneers can always scale down the amount of capacity auctioned. As witnessed in a South African renewable auction, bidders respond to a supply squeeze by decreasing their bid prices.

3: Leverage Policy Frameworks and Market Structures

Auctions don’t exist in a vacuum. Renewable auctions benefit tremendously from existing market structures and companion policies. Where applicable, auction design should consider the multiple grid services energy storage systems can offer. Even if an auction is only focused on energy arbitrage, it should not preclude storage developers from participating in multiple markets (e.g. frequency regulation), as this may help bidders reduce their bid prices.

4: Earmark a Portion of Auctioned Capacity for Less-mature Technologies

A major criticism of early auctions is that they unintentionally favored the same large players and mature technologies. Policymakers shouldn’t forget that energy storage includes several technological options; they can design auctions to address this by separating procurement for more advanced technologies (Li-ion, for example) from newer technologies (zinc air batteries).

5: Penalize delivery failures without damaging competition

Developers should be incentivized to bid their cheapest possible price, but poor auction design can trigger a race to the bottom with ever more unrealistic bid prices. This is especially true if developers don’t believe they will be punished for delivery failures or poor quality projects. Already, some contract terms for energy storage by auctions include penalties if the developer cannot deliver its promised grid service.

Decarbonizing our energy supply isn’t an easy task. Reverse auctions stand out as a possible tool to quickly and cost-effectively increase our energy storage capacity, which will help integrate intermittent renewables. If this market-based mechanism can be tailored to suit energy storage systems’ capabilities (e.g. offering multiple grid services), it could help shift us to a future where we have access to clean energy at any time of day and year.

Also posted in Energy efficiency / Leave a comment

Dysfunctional gas market cost New England electric customers $3.6 billion

This blog post was co-authored with Levi Marks, Charles Mason and Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins

New England natural gas and electricity prices have undergone dramatic spikes in recent years, spurring talk about the need for a costly new pipeline to meet the region’s needs as demand for gas seemed ready to overtake suppliers’ available capacity to deliver it. For example, during the polar vortex of 2013-14, the gas price at New England’s main gas trading hub regularly exceeded $20/MMBtu (million British Thermal Units, the measure commonly used in the gas industry) and reached a record high of $78/MMBtu on January 22, 2014, compared to the annual average of $5.50/MMBtu.

In an efficient market, we would indeed expect prices to be high during events like the polar vortex. We would also expect pipelines delivering gas to regions like the Boston area – in this case the Algonquin Gas Transmission (AGT) pipeline – to be fully utilized. But this is not what we observed when we analyzed the scheduling patterns on the AGT pipeline from 2013 to 2016.

What 8 million data points told us about artificial shortages

Our research group spent 18 months looking at eight million data points covering the three-year period from mid-2013 to mid-2016. We discovered that during this period, a handful of New England gas utilities owned by two large energy companies routinely scheduled large deliveries, then cancelled orders at the last minute. These scheduling practices created an artificial shortage when in fact there was far more pipeline capacity on the system than it appeared.

As a result, we estimate that New England electricity customers paid $3.6 billion more over this period than they would have if the unused pipeline capacity had been available to deliver gas for electricity generation (for more information on how we calculated this number, visit our methodology page). As for the need for a new pipeline, our analysis shows that energy prices over this period were inflated, which means they should not be used to assess how much, if any, additional pipeline capacity is needed. Both conclusions illustrate why it’s so important (and how valuable it could be) to fix the interface between the gas and electric markets.

Why unused pipeline capacity impacts electricity prices

Although it was natural gas that was supposedly in short supply over this period, electricity prices also experienced large price spikes. That’s due to the way electricity prices are set, and the fact that much of the electricity in New England, as in much of the country, is increasingly generated using natural gas.

About half of the electricity traded in New England’s wholesale electricity market, ISO New England (ISO-NE), comes from gas-fired generators. For any given hour, the wholesale electricity price for all generators in this market is determined by the last (highest) bid needed to meet customer demand (or “clear the market”). This market clearing price is typically (75 percent of the time) set by a natural gas plant, which means their cost for gas and pipeline transportation tends to drive the price of electricity. That cost is largely determined by the spot price of natural gas at Algonquin Citygate, New England’s main gas trading hub, served by the Algonquin Pipeline.

Policy paper: Aligning natural gas and electricity markets »

The figure below shows a stylized generation supply curve for ISO-NE. The lower cost resources to the left (typically solar, wind and hydro) are generally used before the higher cost plants to the right (coal, gas, petroleum). The plants situated where demand meets the supply curve set the overall market price in any given hour (bids are submitted a day ahead of time in the day ahead market). This is typically one of the natural gas plants represented by the red dots on the middle part of the curve. A higher spot price for natural gas increases the marginal cost of gas-fired generators, shifting the generation supply curve up as seen in the second panel. This translates into a higher marginal cost of meeting a given level of electricity demand and thus a higher wholesale electricity price P*.

Stylized generation supply curve for ISO-NE.

What price do electric generators pay for gas? The secondary market for natural gas

In New England, as in many other markets, gas-fired electricity generators generally procure gas from a secondary market, where sellers are usually natural gas utilities that purchase long-term contracts at regulated prices directly from the pipeline company. The secondary market exists because these long-term contracts allow contract holders to sell any unused capacity at unregulated prices to gas-fired generators or others.

Generators buying in the secondary market for gas do so because they have decided it is more cost-effective to procure natural gas transportation that way than to grapple with rigid, long-term contracts for pipeline capacity that don’t fit their highly variable needs.

While the amount of pipeline capacity available to deliver natural gas to New England is fixed, demand for gas fluctuates significantly with external factors such as temperature, as seen by the price spikes experienced during the polar vortex

On days like these, holders of long-term contracts can pocket the difference between the price that buyers in the secondary market are willing to pay for gas deliveries, as indicated by the Algonquin Citygate spot price, and the regulated price they themselves pay the pipeline for that same capacity. In the case of utilities, revenues from such sales are typically to a large extent refunded back to the ratepayers that paid for those long-term contracts in the first place.

How could pipeline capacity go unused during the polar vortex?

We see four local gas utilities (two owned by Eversource, two by Avangrid) that scheduled far more pipeline capacity the day before gas delivery than they ended up using the next day. Repeatedly, these companies downscheduled their orders only at the end of the gas delivery day–too late for that unused capacity to be made available to the secondary market.

The threshold at which last-minute down-scheduling of gas orders impacts gas and electric prices varies depending on daily demand. As a proxy, we looked at how far the scheduling patterns at delivery “nodes” on the pipeline operated by Eversource and Avangrid-owned utilities deviated from the overall system average.

  • On 434 days during the study period, at least one Eversource node made downward scheduling changes more than two standard deviations larger than the average scheduling change made by all firms on the pipeline.
  • On 351 days, at least one Eversource location had a schedule change more than three standard deviations larger than the average.

The Eversource utilities primarily made large downscheduling changes on cold days, while Avangrid made large scheduling cuts far more often.

  • On 1043 days, at least one Avangrid location made downward scheduling change more than two standard deviations larger than the average.
  • On 1031 days, at least one Avangrid location made a downward change more than three standard deviations larger than the average.

Total unused capacity exceeded 100,000 MMBtu on 37 days in the three-year period we looked at, which is roughly 7% of the pipeline’s total daily capacity and 28% of the typical total daily supply to gas-fired generators. That these large amounts of downscheduled pipeline capacity were not made available to New England’s gas-fired generators raised both the gas price for generators as well as the price of electricity for New England’s electricity customers. We estimate that unused pipeline capacity increased average gas and electricity prices by 38% and 20%, respectively, over the three-year period we study.

While this behavior may have been within the companies’ contractual rights, the significant impacts in both the gas and electricity markets show the need to consider improvements to market design and regulation. The gas transportation market must become more transparent and flexible to better ensure that existing pipeline capacity is optimally utilized and that unbiased price signals in both the gas and electricity markets lead to cost-efficient investment in energy infrastructure.

Also posted in Energy efficiency / Leave a comment

Alternative Facts: 6 Ways President Trump’s Energy Plan Doesn’t Add Up

Photos by lovnpeace and KarinKarin

Here is why Trump’s plan promises a future it can’t deliver:

2. Inflated fuel prices

3. Technically vs. economically recoverable resources

4. Lack of discounting causes overestimations

5. Calculated benefits are not additional to the status quo

6. No consideration of environmental costs

Also posted in Politics, Trump's energy plan / Leave a comment

Ensuring Environmental Outcomes from a Carbon Tax

How can we ensure that a carbon tax delivers on its pollution reduction potential? An innovative, new idea could provide greater certainty over the environmental outcome.

As momentum intensifies around the world for action to fight climate change, the United States is emerging as a leader in the new low-carbon economy. But if we are going to reduce climate pollution at the pace and scale required — cutting emissions 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 and at least 83% by 2050, on a path to zero net emissions —we need to roll up our sleeves on a new generation of ambitious climate policies that harness the power of the economy and American innovation. An emerging idea could be a game-changer for the prospects of a carbon tax to help tackle climate pollution.

Economics 101 teaches us that market-based policies, including cap-and-trade programs as well as carbon taxes, are the most cost-effective and economically efficient means of achieving results. Both put a price on carbon emissions to reduce dangerous pollution. Cap-and-trade programs place a “cap” on the total quantity of allowable emissions, directly limiting pollution and ensuring a specific environmental result, while allowing prices to fluctuate as pollution permits are traded. The “guarantee” that the cap provides is a primary reason this tool has been favored by EDF and other stakeholders focused on environmental performance. That U.S. targets are based on quantities of pollution reductions also speaks to the need for policy solutions tied to these pollution limits.

In comparison, a carbon tax sets the price per unit of pollution, allowing emissions to respond to the changes in behavior this price encourages. The problem, from an environmental standpoint, is that a carbon tax lacks an explicit connection to a desired pollution reduction target — and therefore provides no assurance that the required reductions will actually be achieved. We know that a carbon tax will impact emissions, but even the most robust modeling cannot provide certainty over the magnitude of that impact. Furthermore, fundamental factors like energy or economic market dynamics can change over time, affecting the performance of a tax. Because greenhouse gas pollution accumulates in the atmosphere over time, even being slightly off the desired path over several decades can produce significant consequences for cumulative emissions, and thus climate damages.

A new approach: Environmental Integrity Mechanisms (EIMs)

Two recently-released papers by the Nicholas Institute at Duke University and Resources for the Future (RFF) directly address this key concern with a carbon tax —and suggest an innovative path forward. They illustrate how a suite of provisions – we’ll call them “Environmental Integrity Mechanisms” or “EIMs,” though each paper uses different terminology – could provide greater levels of certainty regarding the emissions outcome, by allowing for adjustment of the carbon tax regime over time to course-correct and keep us on track for meeting our targets.

EIMs – if carefully designed – can play an important role in connecting a carbon tax to its performance in reducing pollution. They are a type of built-in insurance mechanism: they may never be triggered if the initial price path achieves its projected impact, but provide a back-up plan in case it does not.

These mechanisms are analogous to well-studied “cost containment” provisions in cap-and-trade that are designed to provide greater certainty over prices. Cost containment provisions are included in several successful cap-and-trade programs around the world. For example, California’s cap-and-trade program includes a price collar that sets a floor as well as a ceiling that triggers the release of a reserve of allowances.

EIMs are a parallel effort to introduce greater emissions certainty into a carbon tax system. With the recent publication of these two papers, EIMS are beginning to receive well-deserved greater attention. These provisions help bridge the gap between caps and taxes, merging the strengths of each to create powerful hybrid programs.

How EIMs might work

Let’s take a closer look at how these “EIMs” could work.

• First, the initial tax level and/or growth rate could be adjusted depending on performance against an emissions trajectory or carbon budget benchmark. This could occur either automatically via a simple formula built into the legislation, by Congressional intervention at a later date based on expert recommendations, or by delegation of authority to a federal or independent agency or group of agencies.

There are clear advantages to including an automatic adjustment in the legislation. This avoids having to go back to a sluggish Congress to act; and there is no guarantee that Congress would make appropriate adjustments. Moreover, Congress is likely to be loath to relinquish its tax-setting authority to an executive agency — and such delegation could even face legal challenges. Delegating tax-setting authority to an executive agency could also introduce additional political uncertainty in rate setting.

In designing such an automatic adjustment, policy makers will need to consider the type, frequency and size of these adjustments, as well as how they are triggered. The RFF paper in particular discusses some of the resulting trade-offs. For example, an automatic adjustment will reduce the price certainty that many view as the core benefit of a tax. On the other hand, by explicitly and transparently specifying the adjustments that would occur under certain conditions, a high degree of price predictability can still be maintained – with the added benefit of increased emissions certainty.

• Second, the Nicholas Institute brief discusses regulatory tools that could be employed if emission goals were not met –including existing opportunities under the Clean Air Act, or even new authority. The authors point out that relative to automatic adjustment mechanisms, regulatory options are more difficult to “fine-tune.” Nevertheless, they could provide a powerful safeguard if alternatives fail.

• Finally, as the Nicholas Institute brief discusses, a portion of tax revenue could be used to fund additional reductions if performance goals were not being met. This approach could tap into cost-effective reductions in sectors where the carbon tax might be more challenging to implement (e.g. forestry or agriculture). The revenue could also be used to secure greater reductions from sectors covered by the tax — for example, by funding investments in energy efficiency. In a neat twist, the additional revenue needed to fund these emissions reductions would be available when emissions were higher than expected — that is, precisely when more mitigation was needed.

EDF’s take

Our goal is to reduce the amount of carbon pollution we put into the atmosphere in as cost-effective and efficient a manner as possible. This means putting a limit and a price on carbon pollution.

Even at this preliminary stage in the exploration of EIM design, one takeaway is clear: all carbon tax proposals should include an EIM with an automatic adjustment designed to meet the desired emissions path and associated carbon budget.

More work is needed to develop and evaluate the range and design of EIMs. And while a cap is still the most sure-fire means of guaranteeing an emissions outcome, this growing consideration by economists and policy experts opens a new path for the potential viability of carbon taxes as a pollution reduction tool in the United States.

The bottom line is this: The fundamental test of any climate policy is environmental integrity. For a carbon tax, that means an EIM.

Also posted in Cap and Trade, Uncategorized / 1 Response


This is a new version of one of the first songs I was sort of happy with when I first started producing.
It's a pretty simple edit but I felt like it worked with the overall feel of the song.

I'm always up for criticisms on my tunes. I did this with massive and ableton and a few other plug ins and whatnot.

If you dig it it's a free download


Pakistan’s debt, servicing cost to go up

VIAHussain Zaidi
SOURCEThe Express Tribune
  • 1

ISLAMABAD:  Pakistan economic, particularly balance of payments-related, problems are being exacerbated by two recent international developments: the hike in interest rates in the United States and upward movement of international crude oil prices.

The US, world’s largest economy, experienced a protracted turbulence caused by the 2007-09 housing and financial crisis. To ward off the economy’s descent into depression, like the one that shook the country in 1929, interest rates were slashed.

However, as the economy is looking up, growing 4.5% in the second quarter of current year, and the unemployment rate has come down to 3.9%, the lowest in the last one decade, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March from 1.50% to 1.75% and then from 1.75% to 2% in June 2018.

Two other interest rate hikes are likely at the end of September and later in December this year.

There is a direct relationship between interest rates and the value of domestic currency. All else being equal, hike in interest rates leads to currency appreciation as investors see higher returns on their investments in dollar-denominated assets.

Also Read: Next ECC meeting to weigh economic, political costs of gas price hike

Since the US is the lynchpin of global economic, financial and exchange rate systems, the changes in US interest rates affect other countries as well.

Since most of the international transactions of Pakistan are denominated in dollars, the economy is particularly vulnerable to the effects of movement in the American currency.

The US interest rate increase is driving up the value of Pakistan’s external debt as well as the cost of debt servicing. At the end of December 2017, Pakistan’s external public debt was $70.51 billion, which went up to $75.35 billion at the end of June 2018. In FY18, $5.62 billion was spent on foreign debt servicing.

Owing to dollar appreciation, Pakistan’s debt as well as debt servicing cost will go up in the current fiscal year even if no fresh loan is taken. The increase in debt may encourage capital flight as investors fear a backlash from the government.

As a rule, capital seeks a higher yield and lower risk. Investors put their funds into developing countries’ markets, where risk is generally higher than in developed economies, if they offer a higher rate of return. Low interest rates in the US had made it easier for developing countries to attract foreign investment.

However, in the wake of interest rate surge in the US, developing countries like Pakistan will have to offer higher interest rates plus risk premium to attract foreign capital.

The new government is considering raising funds from the international bond market. The dollar appreciation will necessitate a higher rate of return on bonds.

In response to the upward movement of interest rates in the US as well as some other economies, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased the policy rate by 50 basis points to 6.50% in May 2018 and further to 7.50% in July 2018.

It is likely that the policy rate will be raised further in the upcoming monetary policy statement. The increase in interest rates is not without implications.

For one thing, it adds to the debt burden. For another, a contractionary monetary policy puts brakes on economic growth.

Commodity prices

Since most of the international trade transactions use the US dollar, the dollar appreciation will raise commodity prices. As Pakistan is essentially a commodity exporter, the unit value of exports will increase.

The downside, however, is that price increase will reduce the demand for non-oil commodities, such as cotton and rice, on which Pakistan’s export performance is so heavily dependent.

On the other hand, the increase in oil prices will inflate our import bill, since petroleum products are the major import goods. As a result, Pakistan, which ran a trade deficit of $37.67 billion in 2017-18, may see its trade imbalance worsen.

Also Read: Pakistan’s debt, liabilities swell 83% to Rs30tr

The flip side of the dollar appreciation is depreciation of the rupee. Since December 2017, the rupee has depreciated more than 17 percentage points.

While the increasing trade and current account deficits and shrinking foreign exchange reserves have been the major cause of the depreciation, the dollar appreciation has also contributed to driving down the rupee.

The impact of depreciation on trade balance depends on various factors, such as price elasticity of demand for exports and imports, the supply side situation and the cost of doing business.

Depreciation drives up the general price level. FY18 closed with 3.9% average Consumer Price Index (CPI) and 3.5% Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation rates.

However, since May 2018, the CPI rate has been on the rise, registering 5.8% year-on-year growth for August 2018. Likewise, the WPI has been on the increase since April 2018, registering 11% year-on-year growth for August 2018.

The US monetary policy tightening is accompanied by, and has also contributed to, upward movement of international oil prices. Years 2015, 2016 and 2017 saw average per barrel crude oil prices of $49.50, $40.68, and $52.51, respectively. However, 2018 has seen a surge in prices.

At the end of June, July and August 2018, the average per barrel crude oil price was $71.98, $72.67 and $71.08 respectively.

The low oil prices enabled Pakistan to increase the purchase of capital equipment essential for development. They were also instrumental in keeping the general price level from rising head and shoulder.

The higher oil prices will stoke inflation, slow down growth and put pressure on balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves. The silver lining is that increased oil prices will push up economic growth in Gulf countries, which are a major source of remittances for Pakistan.

The writer is an Islamabad-based columnist.

(This news/article originally appeared in The Express Tribune on September 17th, 2018)

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6 Key Ingredients to Stay Safe While Skiing in the Backcountry // Helpful Hints

6 Key Ingredients to Stay Safe While Skiing in the Backcountry: Lead Image

More and more skiers are spending time outside of ski resort boundaries. With advancements in equipment, the backcountry is more accessible than ever before. Of course, when you’re skiing outside the ropes, your safety is in your own hands. If you are looking to head into the backcountry or want to start exploring the resort side-country, we made a list of 6 rules to help you stay safe. When there is no supervision, the stakes go up, which means it is even more important to be careful. These rules are intended to be an introduction to staying safe and staying smart when you’re out there exploring. We encourage anyone interested in the backcountry to look for local backcountry or avalanche safety courses. Backcountry skiing is a lifelong learning experience; you can never know too much.

6 Key Ingredients to Stay Safe While Skiing in the Backcountry: Prior Planning Prevents Poor Performance

Having a plan and venturing with friends, two key ingredients to any successful backcountry expedition.

1. Never Ski Alone:

It is important to always head into the backcountry with others. This is the first and most important rule of side/backcountry skiing. Having a partner in the backcountry helps create a check and balance system. Many areas off-piste can be hard to navigate and quite technical. Because of the human tendency to be irrational, it is best to be with someone else who might remind you of the possible dangers. Skiing with someone also gives you security surrounding getting out of the woods. Some injuries may allow you to get off the mountain with the assistance of a partner. However, more serious injuries, let’s say an injury involving the head, may require your partner to contact professional rescue teams. Don’t get stranded in the woods by yourself, especially in the freezing temperatures!

2. Make a Plan:

Before heading into the backcountry with your partner, plan. Once the plan is solidified let another party know what you are attempting to accomplish. Letting others know what your plan is will allow them to know where to look if you don’t return at a reasonable time. If something happens while skiing that prevents both you and your partner from contacting help, you can at least be sure that others know where you are. It is important to remember many places in the mountains lack the same amount of service you have at home. Some suggest leaving a note on the dashboard of your car about your plans.

3. Be Prepared for The Worst (Conditions)

As much as you want to trust the weather channel, you shouldn’t. Mother nature can quickly change her mind. When this happens, you don’t want to be on top of a mountain ill-equipped. Bringing extra layers never hurts. In the backcountry, people tend to be working a bit harder than when skiing on-piste. Whether skinning uphill or trudging through deep snow, you are most likely going to be sweating. Wet clothes tend to make humans cold in pretty much all temperatures, but especially in colder conditions. Swapping a layer might be uncomfortable for a second but you will be warmer immediately. Always keep a hat in your bag for as much as 45% of body heat is lost from the head. For added warmth, hand warmers and toe warmers are small and don’t weigh much, so you might as well always have a set in your bag.

Accessories like voile straps can save the day. It is a good idea to bring one or more voile straps. Put one in your bag and one wrapped around your pole. There are tons of ways to be creative with voile straps! Bringing a shovel is also a good idea. If the snow is deep sometimes it is necessary to remove snow when someone falls, either to get them up again or to find lost equipment. Shovel shafts can also be used as a splint, in conjunction with voile straps, in the case of an emergency.

4. Keep Your Extremities Warm:

Letting your toes and fingers get cold will result in the entire body becoming cold much faster. Your body can only use so many calories at a time to keep warm so it is important to keep the areas with less blood flow as warm as possible. It is always a good idea to bring an extra pair of gloves. Bringing extra socks does not always help for there is a good chance your boot liner is wet and cold which will immediately make your fresh socks the same. Heated socks are a great product if your feet get cold easily. When you becomes cold, parts of your body will start shutting down. This includes but is not limited to your brain. When your brain starts to shut down, more poor decisions are made which can be very unsafe.

In the backcountry, it's you vs. nature. Have extra layers, have extra food, have extra water, and be prepared.

5. Bring Food and Water:

Food and water are necessities on and off the mountain. Your body is burning tons of calories between keeping warm and constantly moving so it is vital you stay fueled. Not hydrating while exercising can greatly reduce your bodies performance. If you are experiencing muscle cramping, it is a sheer sign of dehydration and obviously reduces performance. Packing unprocessed sugary food is a good idea when heading into the backcountry for the day for the sugar will keep your glycogen levels high, the primary fuel source for muscles. Always keep an energy bar in your bag in addition to the food you bring for the day. This way if the unexpected happens or you forget food one day, you will have something.

6. Have Basic Avalanche Safety Knowledge:

We are not going to dive into the nitty-gritty details about skiing in avalanche prone areas but will point you in the right direction. If you find yourself skiing in dangerous snow areas or would like to in the future, please take a class an avalanche safety class. To find a class near you, check out AIARE. If you can’t find a solution that will work for you there, you can also take the Utah Avalanche Center’s new online course for free. Either way, these classes are super important as they will inform you about the specifics regarding topics on snowpack, beacons, etcetera. Avalanches can happen inbounds and out-of-bounds so it is important to be knowledgeable about different types of snow. While inbound avalanches tend to be more rare and small (in the relative magnitude of snow), they can still push you around and cause injury. Be sure to check the conditions the ski area’s website to check for alerts. If you are unsure if a certain zone has a condition report, just try Googling it!

If you have considered purchasing avalanche gear before, you know it’s quite expensive. But would you rather have cheap faulty equipment that would prevent you from saving someone’s life, or from someone saving you? No way! Avalanche gear is tried and true to ensure as many people as possible survive avalanches.

There are three main tools that you need to buy in addition to taking an avalanche class: Beacon, Probe, and Shovel. Beacons are electronic devices that can connect to other beacons. When in ‘search mode’, the beacon will beep different tones as you approach the buried person’s beacon. Everyone you are skiing with needs a beacon for a beacon only works if everyone has one on their person. Beacons only get you so close to the buried person which means you will also need a probe, which will help you determine exactly where the body is. A probe is a foldable aluminum shaft, similar in construction to a tarp pole, with a metal tip on the end. Using a probe, you can poke through the fallen snow until you feel the person. The final necessary tool is a shovel, which as you can probably guess, is used to dig the person out.

Avalanche air-bags are amazing tools that help mitigate being buried. They are either deployed by air canisters or fans. When an avalanche occurs, the user can deploy the bag at the right time (which will be taught at an avalanche class) which will help them float. If they become buried by the avalanche even with the bag deployed, the bag will create a large air pocket which will increase the amount of oxygen available for breathing, raising your chances of survival. Bags using fans are great for the bag can be deployed multiple times in a run. If a bag uses CO2, the cartridges must be replaced after the bag is deployed.

Feel free comment or message us about gear question you have. Ski safe and smart!

Written by on 12/13/18


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Parallels Between Greek And Egyptian Creation Goddesses

1855 words - 7 pages

Civilizations from antiquity lacked the wonder of science to explain the world; the forces of nature on earth, the fates of peoples lives, the spirits of the dead. However, they still needed to turn to something to try and explain these phenomena, so they began to create stories about mysticism and deities. These stories evolved into legends and myths that crossed cultures between Greece and Egypt over time and created gods and goddesses to whom they assigned different duties. The duties of the creation of the universe and the beings in it fell primarily on the goddesses for they were the fertile sex from which life could be brought forth. The major creation goddesses for the Egyptians are Hathor whose responsibilities the Greeks placed upon Aphrodite and Hera, Neith whose duties became those of Athena, Artemis, and Gaia, and finally Nut, who shared her essence with the three generations of Greek creation goddesses: Gaia, Rhea, and Hera.Hathor, the Golden One was the goddess of love and when she is compared with Golden Aphrodite and Hera of the Golden Throne it is evident that, although they originated in two different cultures, they were similar in appearance and responsibilities. Hathor, whose name means "feminine power", was the "chief of all the goddesses, divine mother of the king of Egypt, and the special deity of women" (Lesko 82). Hera parallels her by being Zeus' wife and Queen among the gods. Hathor was important to the men in Egypt as well as the women, and people from both sexes vied for the priestly positions in temples dedicated to Hathor, which were found everywhere in the world that Egyptians were located. Votive offerings left by ordinary men and women show that Hathor is the goddess that presides over fertility, human sexuality, love, and a happy family life (Lesko 98). In Greek mythology, Aphrodite is the goddess of beauty, love, and sex, while Hera watched over marriage and childbirth. There are many more votive offerings to Hathor than to any other Egyptian deities because she is highly revered for her powers over fertility. Hathor also responded to the needs of a woman through all the stages of her life. She helped girls with the transition to womanhood, finding mates, and also with the trials of pregnancy and birth (Lesko 98 - 99). Instead of having just one deity for these duties, the Egyptians had two separate goddesses for these tasks: Aphrodite who they prayed to for help with finding a mate and being fertile, and Hera who protected birth and the family (Morford and Lenardon 168). Hathor was sympathetic to women who were single, particularly the ones who were unhappy. She was quick to offer help to those who were seeking the important goals of a happy marriage and a healthy and successful childbirth. Although her most important role was that of the goddess of love and fertility, she was also the promoter of life, music and general human happiness (Lesko 89). These respectable duties are contrasted by her role as...

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Japan’s Underwater City of the Sea Gods

The gringa’s dear readers may find musings of the lost city of Atlantis as fascinating as the gringa. What if it has actually been discovered off the coast of Japan? Hey, stranger things have happened! Although it is more likely that it is a lost city from Japan’s ancient Jomon civilization, sunk into the ocean thousands of years ago after a cataclysmic earthquake, tsunami or climate upheaval after the last ice age, it is still fun to entertain fantastical theories as well as explore the real science behind this archaeological mystery.

Originally discovered by dive instructor Kihachiro Aratake in 1986, these amazing formations have come to be known as the Yonaguni Monument. This massive underwater complex, dated to have hailed around 8000BC, can be found off the coastline of the island Yonaguni which is part of Japan’s Ryukyu island chain. Extending over an area of almost 1000 feet x 500 feet, the complex consists of ten structures, some appearing to be in the shape of animals as well as to contain glyphs of human characters and animals. Roads and retaining walls can be seen connecting the structure in the pattern of a well designed city.

For decades scuba diving tourists, as well as scuba diving archaeologists, have explored ancient ruins of a castle, majestic archway, five temples, a step pyramid and a massive arena. As the gringa only gets to explore pictures of the ruins, it is still pretty obvious even to my untrained eye that these are man-made. Yet there are still scientists who prefer to believe these are natural formations that were enhanced by ancient people into functional structures. This really aggravates the gringa when scientists wave aside the obvious because they just don’t want to admit that ancient civilizations may have been far more advanced than modern “experts” have traditionally been taught to believe.

Just as the west has Aesop’s fables, Japanese culture has their own popular fables, myths and legends. The Mu civilization is a fabled Pacific people. The ancient tale explains that they disappeared under the waves of the sea. In 1996 Masaaki Kimura, professor of marine geology from Japan’s University of the Ryukyus, began his own research to see if this is the long lost home of the Mu. He, too, was of the belief that Yonaguni was most likely a man-manipulated complex of natural formations. However, he was completely converted after his first dive.

Kimura identified quarry marks on many of the megalithic stones. And, since nature does not normally lay out large stones in symmetrical patterns and create many stones with right angles, the gringa tends to agree with Kimura’s conclusion. He studied carvings that were distinctly human faces and animals. The style was clearly indicative of Asian art. He refers to Egypt’s famous sphinx as he described one underwater sculpture of what seems to be a king. A glyph resembling a horse and a painted relief resembling a cow are still discernible making it apparent that this was not a city of mermaids and mermen living under the sea but was actually a thriving, above-ground metropolis at one time.

This area of the Pacific is famous for earthquakes and tsunamis. In the spring of 1771 the largest tsunami ever recorded struck Yonaguni. With a height of well over 130 feet, a catastrophic oceanic wave such as this would have been powerful enough to blast this ancient city well below the surface of the Pacific. Also, 10,000 years ago the sea level would have been more than 100 feet lower than it is today. The geographical area that the Yonaguni complex sits on would, at the time of its existence, have been well above the sea and on dry ground, a coastal city. A land bridge would have also existed connecting the chain of islands with the mainland making it entirely possible for humans to settle there with their domesticated animals.

Although some experts date the ruins to be about 10,000 years old, Kimura’s estimate gives the complex a much younger age. He suspects it may be a 5,000 year old civilization. Either way, this still places the city’s existence during the time of the Jomon civilization. Evidence to be more specific about the age of the structures is hard to come by. Existing beneath the ocean means that things like pottery or wooden objects have long since decayed and disappeared forever. There is, however, the chance of analysis of the paint used on the cow to get a bit more specific at pinning down a particular century.

Jomon culture during the timeframe considered for these structures can be divided into two separate eras:

  • Incipient Jomon (10,500-8000BC)
  • Initial Jomon (8000-5000BC)

Incipient Jomon civilization has left behind archaeological remains that indicate that the Jomon people were primarily hunter gatherers who produced pottery identified by their pointed bottoms and corded markings.  The following period, Initial Jomon, was noted by rising sea levels and global temperatures. The land bridge between the islands and the mainland would have disappeared. Diet would have transitioned to primarily sea based fare and the development of agriculture and farm production animals since natural resources were limited on the island. Large refuse mounds consisting of large amounts of shells discovered on archeological digs on the islands  attests to this. Remains of stone religious figurines and tools such as knives and axes have also been discovered in island digs and dated to the same period as the underwater city.

Historians describe the culture of the Jomon era to be very complex and in the early stages of organized agricultural develpment. Similarities with Asia’s ancient northeastern cultures as well as the ancient indigenous peoples of the Americas can be detected in many of the artifacts discovered. The Jomon preferred to live in coastal or river communities in homes that were sunken into the earth. Ironic, then, that one of their greatest cities eventually sunk into the ocean.

Although the gringa is unable to scuba dive because of epilepsy, I am certain that at least a few dear readers could join the many tourist divers and send me pictures and a recount of your adventure. During winter months, shark enthusiasts sink beneath the waves to observe the hammerheads that frequent the area.  However, if sharks aren’t your thing, and you prefer the mystery of history, you can always take a detour to the ruins and share your thrills here on the gringa’s blog.

Since the late 90s the underwater city has become increasingly popular among tourists. Famous writers and photographers have braved the waves to record their own bit of history. The Discovery Channel and National Geographic have performed their own expeditions. So, if any dear reader does get the opportunity for a dive of their own, you must drop the gringa a line here and share your own exciting story.

National Geographic

Hidden Archaeology

Image source: Source: Hidden Archeology


There are some architectures for relational reasoning but lacks general-purpose components for relational reasoning and visual question answering.

This paper propose Feature-wise Linear Modulation(FiLM) to conditionally focus on the image. By linearly transforming the output of convolution filter, FiLM conditionally choose certain filters.

FiLM generator takes questions as input and output betas and gammas for each ResBlocks. Each ResBlock contains FiLM after convolution and BN layer. Several ResBlocks with FiLM stacks to form FiLM-ed network.

image FiLM not only achieved the state of the art result in CLEVR, but also showen to conditionally focus on the image based on queries.

Perez, Ethan, et al. “Film: Visual reasoning with a general conditioning layer.” arXiv preprint arXiv:1709.07871 (2017).


The best way to learn is ask questions.

I am writing this beleiving that you are a student who have often heard this phrase “ To read between lines”. This is a word often our teachers say us when we ask them what is the best way to learn. But they would never give you a clear picture of how to do it. This article would help you achieve not only in reading between lines but also reveals the power of this method in achieving yours dreams of becoming a knowleadge person.

The method is ASK QUESTIONS. To elaborate, think you are a mechanical engineer and your book has lot of stuffs that bore you. Lets say you are learning about a car. So start by asking questions regarding a car like “ WHEN WAS THE FIRST CAR BUILD? , HOW IS A MODERN CAR DIFFERENT FROM THOSE CARS? , WHO BUILT IT? WHEN WAS IT? WHICH IS THE FASTEST CAR? ARE THERE CARS THAT RUN WITHOUT FUEL? etc “ .

Haha! now you might be wondering how these questions can help in understanding this book in front of me. It will help because intention of such questions is to bring your brains attention towards the topic car. When you ask question you are telling your brain that this topic is highly important to you. Most often even when we read our passionate topic we get bored or sleepy in between. This is because what we think and what our brain think of a thing is entirely different. Our brain get interested in a thing if it can link it to something else that is already present in it. Thats why i said you to ask questions. These questions will be your brains link to attach these topic. You would be surprised when you read something after this exercise. You will see you even can memorise important dates or facts with much ease. The important note is that the more questions you ask the more better.You even can do this in another way. Try memorising some info about a topic and these facts will be a platform for your brain to link and hence you will feel it more interesting.

So start googling your questions about anything and start reading it. Make a change in your life.


The benefits of a chickenpox vaccine outweigh the risks

Vaccinating children against varicella-zoster virus will almost double the cases of shingles in about 30 years time, but it will be worth it in the long term.

The itchy-scratchy misery of a chickenpox was until recently a rite of passage for children around the world. The varicella-zoster virus causes chickenpox infections. This virus persists in small numbers in nerve cells for many years after infection, and can reactivate from these cells. Often this reactivation causes no symptoms, but sometimes it results in a painful skin condition called shingles (or herpes zoster), especially in older adults.

Some countries — including the United States, Australia, Taiwan and Greece — have virtually wiped out childhood cases of chickenpox by requiring that children be vaccinated against the varicella-zoster virus. But some countries have hesitated. One reason for this hesitation is that exposure to individuals with a chickenpox infection helps boost the immunity of individuals who have previously been infected. This may help reduce the likelihood of these people developing shingles later in life. So, some countries have worried that chickenpox vaccinations might inadvertently increase the number of shingles cases. To assess this risk, many scientists have created computer models, but the models have some limitations.

Now, Benson Ogunjimi and co-workers report a new individual-based model to assess the effect of childhood varicella vaccination on shingles cases that factors in the immune responses to varicella infection. The model suggests that re-exposure to the varicella virus through contact with infected people would only provide extra protection for about two years; this is much shorter than previous predictions that suggested it might last 20 years. The model also predicts that implementing a varicella vaccination program for children would almost double the number of shingles cases 31 years later. But this increase would be temporary.

The predicted increase in shingles cases is likely to disproportionately occur among 31- to 40-year-olds. This is unexpected because most previous models predict that older age groups would bear the brunt of a rise in shingles, but this younger population would be less likely to develop lasting complications of shingles. Together, these findings may allay some fears about implementing childhood varicella vaccination programs by showing that the benefits of re-exposure are limited.

To find out more

Read the eLife research paper on which this story is based: Integrating between-host transmission and within-host immunity to analyze the impact of varicella vaccination on zoster” (August 11, 2015).

eLife is an open-access journal for outstanding research in the life sciences and biomedicine.

This text was reused under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.


Lessons In Electric Circuits -- Volume I (DC) - Chapter 6

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Lessons In Electric Circuits -- Volume I

Chapter 6

Voltage divider circuits

Let's analyze a simple series circuit, determining the voltage drops across individual resistors:

From the given values of individual resistances, we can determine a total circuit resistance, knowing that resistances add in series:

From here, we can use Ohm's Law (I=E/R) to determine the total current, which we know will be the same as each resistor current, currents being equal in all parts of a series circuit:

Now, knowing that the circuit current is 2 mA, we can use Ohm's Law (E=IR) to calculate voltage across each resistor:

It should be apparent that the voltage drop across each resistor is proportional to its resistance, given that the current is the same through all resistors. Notice how the voltage across R2 is double that of the voltage across R1, just as the resistance of R2 is double that of R1.

If we were to change the total voltage, we would find this proportionality of voltage drops remains constant:

The voltage across R2 is still exactly twice that of R1's drop, despite the fact that the source voltage has changed. The proportionality of voltage drops (ratio of one to another) is strictly a function of resistance values.

With a little more observation, it becomes apparent that the voltage drop across each resistor is also a fixed proportion of the supply voltage. The voltage across R1, for example, was 10 volts when the battery supply was 45 volts. When the battery voltage was increased to 180 volts (4 times as much), the voltage drop across R1 also increased by a factor of 4 (from 10 to 40 volts). The ratio between R1's voltage drop and total voltage, however, did not change:

Likewise, none of the other voltage drop ratios changed with the increased supply voltage either:

For this reason a series circuit is often called a voltage divider for its ability to proportion -- or divide -- the total voltage into fractional portions of constant ratio. With a little bit of algebra, we can derive a formula for determining series resistor voltage drop given nothing more than total voltage, individual resistance, and total resistance:

The ratio of individual resistance to total resistance is the same as the ratio of individual voltage drop to total supply voltage in a voltage divider circuit. This is known as the voltage divider formula, and it is a short-cut method for determining voltage drop in a series circuit without going through the current calculation(s) of Ohm's Law.

Using this formula, we can re-analyze the example circuit's voltage drops in fewer steps:

Voltage dividers find wide application in electric meter circuits, where specific combinations of series resistors are used to "divide" a voltage into precise proportions as part of a voltage measurement device.

One device frequently used as a voltage-dividing component is the potentiometer, which is a resistor with a movable element positioned by a manual knob or lever. The movable element, typically called a wiper, makes contact with a resistive strip of material (commonly called the slidewire if made of resistive metal wire) at any point selected by the manual control:

The wiper contact is the left-facing arrow symbol drawn in the middle of the vertical resistor element. As it is moved up, it contacts the resistive strip closer to terminal 1 and further away from terminal 2, lowering resistance to terminal 1 and raising resistance to terminal 2. As it is moved down, the opposite effect results. The resistance as measured between terminals 1 and 2 is constant for any wiper position.

Shown here are internal illustrations of two potentiometer types, rotary and linear:

Some linear potentiometers are actuated by straight-line motion of a lever or slide button. Others, like the one depicted in the previous illustration, are actuated by a turn-screw for fine adjustment ability. The latter units are sometimes referred to as trimpots, because they work well for applications requiring a variable resistance to be "trimmed" to some precise value. It should be noted that not all linear potentiometers have the same terminal assignments as shown in this illustration. With some, the wiper terminal is in the middle, between the two end terminals.

The following photograph shows a real, rotary potentiometer with exposed wiper and slidewire for easy viewing. The shaft which moves the wiper has been turned almost fully clockwise so that the wiper is nearly touching the left terminal end of the slidewire:

If a constant voltage is applied between the outer terminals (across the length of the slidewire), the wiper position will tap off a fraction of the applied voltage, measurable between the wiper contact and either of the other two terminals. The fractional value depends entirely on the physical position of the wiper:

Just like the fixed voltage divider, the potentiometer's voltage division ratio is strictly a function of resistance and not of the magnitude of applied voltage. In other words, if the potentiometer knob or lever is moved to the 50 percent (exact center) position, the voltage dropped between wiper and either outside terminal would be exactly 1/2 of the applied voltage, no matter what that voltage happens to be, or what the end-to-end resistance of the potentiometer is. In other words, a potentiometer functions as a variable voltage divider where the voltage division ratio is set by wiper position.

This application of the potentiometer is a very useful means of obtaining a variable voltage from a fixed-voltage source such as a battery. If a circuit you're building requires a certain amount of voltage that is less than the value of an available battery's voltage, you may connect the outer terminals of a potentiometer across that battery and "dial up" whatever voltage you need between the potentiometer wiper and one of the outer terminals for use in your circuit:

When used in this manner, the name potentiometer makes perfect sense: they meter (control) the potential (voltage) applied across them by creating a variable voltage-divider ratio. This use of the three-terminal potentiometer as a variable voltage divider is very popular in circuit design.

Shown here are several small potentiometers of the kind commonly used in consumer electronic equipment and by hobbyists and students in constructing circuits:

The smaller units on the very left and very right are designed to plug into a solderless breadboard or be soldered into a printed circuit board. The middle units are designed to be mounted on a flat panel with wires soldered to each of the three terminals.

Here are three more potentiometers, more specialized than the set just shown:

The large "Helipot" unit is a laboratory potentiometer designed for quick and easy connection to a circuit. The unit in the lower-left corner of the photograph is the same type of potentiometer, just without a case or 10-turn counting dial. Both of these potentiometers are precision units, using multi-turn helical-track resistance strips and wiper mechanisms for making small adjustments. The unit on the lower-right is a panel-mount potentiometer, designed for rough service in industrial applications.

  • Series circuits proportion, or divide, the total supply voltage among individual voltage drops, the proportions being strictly dependent upon resistances: ERn = ETotal (Rn / RTotal)
  • A potentiometer is a variable-resistance component with three connection points, frequently used as an adjustable voltage divider.

Kirchhoff's Voltage Law (KVL)

When a voltage is specified with a double subscript (the characters "2-1" in the notation "E2-1"), it means the voltage at the first point (2) as measured in reference to the second point (1). A voltage specified as "Ecg" would mean the voltage as indicated by a digital meter with the red test lead on point "c" and the black test lead on point "g": the voltage at "c" in reference to "g".

Current divider circuits

Once again, it should be apparent that the current through each resistor is related to its resistance, given that the voltage across all resistors is the same. Rather than being directly proportional, the relationship here is one of inverse proportion. For example, the current through R1 is half as much as the current through R3, which has twice the resistance of R1.

The current through R1 is still exactly twice that of R2, despite the fact that the source voltage has changed. The proportionality between different branch currents is strictly a function of resistance.

Kirchhoff's Current Law (KCL)

Let's take a closer look at that last parallel example circuit:

Solving for all values of voltage and current in this circuit:

At each node on the negative "rail" (wire 8-7-6-5) we have current splitting off the main flow to each successive branch resistor. At each node on the positive "rail" (wire 1-2-3-4) we have current merging together to form the main flow from each successive branch resistor. This fact should be fairly obvious if you think of the water pipe circuit analogy with every branch node acting as a "tee" fitting, the water flow splitting or merging with the main piping as it travels from the output of the water pump toward the return reservoir or sump.

If we were to take a closer look at one particular "tee" node, such as node 3, we see that the current entering the node is equal in magnitude to the current exiting the node:

From the right and from the bottom, we have two currents entering the wire connection labeled as node 3. To the left, we have a single current exiting the node equal in magnitude to the sum of the two currents entering. To refer to the plumbing analogy: so long as there are no leaks in the piping, what flow enters the fitting must also exit the fitting. This holds true for any node ("fitting"), no matter how many flows are entering or exiting. Mathematically, we can express this general relationship as such:

Mr. Kirchhoff decided to express it in a slightly different form (though mathematically equivalent), calling it Kirchhoff's Current Law (KCL):

Summarized in a phrase, Kirchhoff's Current Law reads as such:

"The algebraic sum of all currents entering and exiting a node must equal zero"

Taking our example node (number 3), we can determine the magnitude of the current exiting from the left by setting up a KCL equation with that current as the unknown value:

The negative (-) sign on the value of 5 milliamps tells us that the current is exiting the node, as opposed to the 2 milliamp and 3 milliamp currents, which must were both positive (and therefore entering the node). Whether negative or positive denotes current entering or exiting is entirely arbitrary, so long as they are opposite signs for opposite directions and we stay consistent in our notation, KCL will work.

Together, Kirchhoff's Voltage and Current Laws are a formidable pair of tools useful in analyzing electric circuits. Their usefulness will become all the more apparent in a later chapter ("Network Analysis"), but suffice it to say that these Laws deserve to be memorized by the electronics student every bit as much as Ohm's Law.

  • Kirchhoff's Current Law (KCL): "The algebraic sum of all currents entering and exiting a node must equal zero"

Ron LaPlante (October 1998): helped create "table" method of series and parallel circuit analysis.

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GW1NGL NA7KR Kevin Roberts Ham Radio


The Doodle Factory is an Egyptian brand that collaborates with different stakeholders and organizations to inclusively empower vulnerable children. This means that the children contribute with their own drawings to take part in improving their lives. Using the children’s designs the brand creates everyday lifestyle products for consumers to be able to constantly fund for the medical, educational and survival needs of the children.

To provide designs that allow children’s creativity and playfulness to pay for a better life.


Cricket Creek Bog i can be flexible, as long as everything is exactly the way i want it
All Welcome  January 06, 2019, 08:34 PM

Set before this thread

Alright, she wanted to turn around. Once she’d gotten out of the woods and into the muck, Piper found that her journey had lost a great deal of its charm. She didn’t understand why on earth there needed to be an entire area that was covered in goop and creeping with vines. Who the hell thought that was a good idea?
In reality, she could have scoped her way around it, but she was keen on breaking through and avoiding traveling north until she had managed to touch point with every pack in the area. Thinking that it was her quickest way directly east, the bog had been the way to go. But she would definitely never go back. With a grunt of distress, the Redleaf girl plunged her leg out of the muck and continued on in a strange sort of sideways walk that left her with a wonky gait.
February 02, 2019, 02:11 PM
Tradesman I
A little over a year ago Wraen had got lost in Tuktu Hinterlands during a snow-storm and, as she explored the Southern fringes of the territories her new pack inhabited, the memories of that adventure came to her mind. She wondered, what were and whether that wolf Burke, who had been Osprey's friend, and who had been so keen on dying, when they had met for the first and last time, was still around. And she remembered the bog, where she had got trapped and rescued by a kind she-wolf, whose name she had already forgotten.

However, just as she decided to bring Maia here, once she returned from her journey to visit Terance, she spotted someone else fighting it's way through the bog and not making a great progress. Recalling her own situation and therefore sympathizing with the russet wolf in the distance, Wraen stopped to assess the situation. There was a particular path that could lead you out of the place almost with dry feet and raking her brain about, what her saviour's actions had been then, all those months ago, she decided to call out to the other: "OY! Need any help there?"

Either Wraen was too far away or the stranger simply ignored her call, she did not receive any answer. Therefore after spending another 10 minutes, watching the other making it's way through the swamp, Wraen shrugged, decided that there was nothing she could do about it and left for home using a solid road that promissed no wet feet.


Ideas to Action:

Independent research for global prosperity

Views from the Center

The Informal Sector: What Do We Know So Far?

The informal sector is a major source of economic activity and job opportunities in poor countries as well as emerging economies. In sub-Saharan Africa, the size of the informal sector is estimated to employ over 70 percent of the population. Why do businesses remain informal? What gains in productivity or profitability do they forego by as a result of that choice?

First Edition of the Oxford Companion to the Economics of Africa Features Essays by CGD Staff and Board

This is a joint post with Julie Walz

Since the mid-nineties, many African nations have ushered in dramatic economic and political changes. But growth in other countries is stalled due conflict, repressive regimes, and lack of infrastructure. A new publication captures the diversity across Africa, using an economic lens to evaluate the key issues affecting Africa’s ability to grow and develop. The Oxford Companion to the Economics of Africa is a compilation of 100 essays on key issues and topics across the continent. It includes contributions from young African researchers, longtime researchers on Africa and four Nobel Laureates. Authors were given the freedom to write their own perspectives, thus the result is not a literature review but an engaging snapshot of concerns and possibilities across the continent. With 48 country perspectives (from Algeria to Zimbabwe) and 53 thematic essays, the book rejects a one-size-fits-all approach yet recognizes that there are continent-wide opportunities and challenges. As the first work of its kind, it is an invaluable resource for anyone interested in the field, from graduate students to policymakers.

This posting is joint with Julia Barmeier