Walking the Walk: Psychology Research In and Out of the Lab

On most days, members of Research Team 3 and their adviser, Mary Turner DePalma, professor of psychology, can be found in the lab, crunching statistics and analyzing data about the psychological impact of diabetes. But sometimes research doesn’t go the way you expect, and this year students found themselves at an impasse. DePalma explains: “Research team is an incredible opportunity for the students to learn a variety of research and statistical skills. But the skill we are learning right now is patience—and that research has its own timetable, one that is difficult to predict and control.”

Patience may be a virtue in research, but the students were anxious to help people with diabetes right away. And that’s why, on a gray and rainy Saturday morning this past October, these student researchers ventured out of the lab and into the great outdoors, walking through Green Lakes State Park in Fayetteville, New York, to raise money for diabetes research, education, and advocacy in the American Diabetes Association Step Out to Fight Diabetes Walk. According to team members Becky Zaremba ’09 and John Metzger ’10, “We felt we had been cooped up in the lab for too long. We wanted to get to know more about the individual people our research could benefit in the future. So we decided to embark on a different kind of active and important contribution to the circumstances we were working so hard to improve.” For the last three years, students on DePalma’s research team have been exploring the psychological dimensions of disease management, specifically focusing on diabetes. Using a combination of laboratory and field techniques, the students have been trying to understand what psychosocial attributes influence the way people manage the disease. In the first phase of the research, students discovered that feelings of anger and perceptions of self-blame had a negative impact on disease management, while social support had a positive one. Because their sample consisted exclusively of non-Hispanic white respondents, however, they were concerned that this model might not be generally predictive, especially since diabetes disproportionately affects minorities such as Native and African Americans. When they studied the same question with a Native American sample, the results revealed that their initial hypothesis was not sufficiently sensitive to important cultural ideals and beliefs. After incorporating those elements, their theoretical model had more predictive power. They then decided to expand their respondent sample to include a Latino population to explore the cultural dimension more completely.

But that’s where the progress ended. “Despite months of hard work, numerous newspaper advertisements, e-mail list announcements, and telephone calls,” explained Zaremba and Metzger, “our sample size remained inadequate for a proper statistical test of our hypotheses.” The students were understandably disappointed since they had not been able to learn anything new or to add to their long-term goal of helping people with diabetes. Nonetheless, there was a lot of learning going on—research team is that kind of experiential learning opportunity that exposes students to the risks and uncertainties associated with real-world situations; in this case, they learned a great deal about the research process, as they had to figure out ways to adapt to and negotiate this unexpected obstacle. DePalma noted: “These students have displayed considerable effort for small returns, and they just keep going back to the table to design alternative methods of data collection. I am quite proud of how they, despite the slow progress, are keeping their focus on the end goal, and they just keep plowing on.” She added: “But these students in particular wanted to have a more immediate impact in helping people with diabetes.”

And that’s how they came to be in the raindrenched woods in October. In the end, the team members raised more than $1,600 (the second highest team total). “After three miles, lots of mud, and a lot of laughs, we finished the walk as a team,” said Zaremba and Metzger. “It was a fantastic bonding experience, and the people we met along the way highlighted the importance of the scientific work in which we are currently involved.”


Privatizing Ontario's utilities a betrayal of public interest

Is selling your local hydro utility in the public interest?

In the wake of the Enron scandal in the United States, it's astonishing that any jurisdiction would consider selling its public utility, writes Paul Kahnert.
In the wake of the Enron scandal in the United States, it's astonishing that any jurisdiction would consider selling its public utility, writes Paul Kahnert.  (CHRIS VAN ES / NEWSART)

Is selling your local hydro utility in the public interest?

Mayor David Miller's Blue Ribbon Panel thinks so. So does David Soknacki, a former Toronto councillor, and so does Carolyn Parrish, a city councillor in Mississauga and a board member of Enersource, that municipality's hydro utility.

Parrish stated recently in this newspaper that Enersource's rate of return is only 2.3 per cent a year and that it doesn't matter who owns it because it is regulated by the Ontario Energy Board.

But if Parrish's numbers are right, why would anyone buy it? Why is the private sector so interested in buying utilities?

When the Ontario Electricity Coalition released its financial report on Enersource at a press conference last week, why was Don Robertson, director of investment banking and head of mergers and acquisitions for Credit Suisse, in attendance? Credit Suisse is a major player in investment banking around the world.

Article Continued Below

Jim Stanford, a PhD economist for the Canadian Auto Workers, prepared the financial report using standard accounting practices. According to Enersource's last three year-end reports, it earned a total of $45 million in net income for its owners. That's an annual average profit of about $15 million a year, or a 7.25 per cent return for the city.

Even if Enersource made nothing, public ownership of hydro utilities is an important public policy tool, particularly at a time when climate change and the environment have emerged as overriding concerns.

According to Franz Hartmann of the Toronto Environmental Alliance: "Public ownership of electrical utilities is critical to curb global warming and clean the air. That's because ownership of a municipal utility is the key lever cities have to deliver effective conservation programs and green generation."

Parrish also is wrong in asserting that the regulatory role of the Ontario Energy Board means it does not matter who owns your local utility.

Private owners are political powerhouses. History shows that they tend to pressure governments, threatening to withhold essential investments unless regulators give them the price regime and environmental and labour standards their profit margins demand.

Enersource is one of the leanest utilities in the province and delivers an efficient service to the community. How would a private owner make profits from such a lean operation? It would have to reduce service, lay off workers, reduce maintenance and new construction – or raise rates.

The proposal to sell Enersource is being made in the deregulated environment created by Mike Harris's Conservative government in the 1990s. After being elected in 2003, Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty promised "public power" but he has yet to repeal Harris's hydro deregulation and privatization legislation.

Indeed, the $60 billion "Integrated Power System Plan" announced by the Liberals last August contains the words "facilitate evolution of Ontario's electricity sector towards a workably competitive market." And also "it will lead to increased competition among suppliers, lower costs ... "

This is the same promise made by the Harris government that a deregulated, privatized electricity market would lead to lower rates.

In the wake of the Enron scandal in the United States, it's astonishing that any jurisdiction would consider selling its public utility. The record of privatization and deregulation is dismal. Quebec and Manitoba are not selling their utilities. Why is Ontario going down this path?

During the last provincial election, the Ontario Electricity Coalition conducted polling in Windsor, Ottawa and Thunder Bay. Of the 1,408 people who responded, 83 per cent thought that public power would be cheaper than private power and 85 per cent thought that public power would do a better job of protecting the environment.

In the last municipal election in Mississauga there was no discussion about selling Enersource, so council has no mandate to do so. What is the will of the people of Mississauga? At one time, a municipality that wished to sell its public utility was legally obliged to hold a public referendum but that requirement was scrapped by the Harris government's 1996 omnibus bill.

For more than 90 years, public power made no profit whatsoever. Ontario Hydro's "power at cost" mandate returned profit to the people and businesses in the form of low and stable rates.

When hydro deregulation and privatization were being promoted in 1996 with the promise of lower rates, critics asked: How do you get lower rates when you add in profits to generators, profits to distributors, profits to retailers, dividends to investors and commissions to commodities brokers? It's not rocket science. When you add in profits to non-profit public services, they are going to cost more.

In 1906, there was an epic battle between the public and private sectors for hydro in Ontario. Sir Adam Beck (a Conservative) led the charge for public power. After years of touring the province with his electric light show and seven referendums, he won the battle for public power. The price of electricity dropped from 8 cents to 4 cents a kilowatt hour.

On his deathbed, Beck said: "I wish I could have lived long enough to build a band of iron around Hydro to keep it safe from the politicians."

He might have added: "And safe from the profiteers."

Paul Kahnert is spokesperson for the Ontario Electricity Coalition.


You are viewing an old version of Adaptive Mechanics. Click here to view the new version.

Community of Practice for Mechanics
in Engineering

Projectile motion is one of the most common curvilinear motions and is a good starting point for learning kinematics of particles. Through a simple animated example of cannon hitting targets, the user learns the concepts of projectile-related topics covering rectangular coordinates (x-y) and normal and tangential coordinates (n-t).

Topics Covered:
Projectile motion
Academic in charge:
A/Prof. G. Prusty / A/Prof. Robin Ford


Revisiting the Mercury Problem

Near the end of 2014 a tsunami-like wave of concern swept over the Glenville community; mercury (Hg) sufficient to merit posting of human health consumption advisories had been measured in Lake Glenville walleye. It should not have been a surprise.

State-wide advisories for largemouth bass have been in effect on all NC lakes since 2006, and had been extended to walleye in several regional lakes as more were tested. Still, I was surprised at the very high Hg concentration that had been found in our walleye. The average Hg content of 20 walleye from Lake Glenville (1.67 parts per million) is 75% to 150% greater than that of other lakes in the area that have been tested, more than three and one-half times the threshold for ocean- caught market fish to be avoided, and in fact higher than the average for any market fish that has been reported by the FDA.

Although NCDHHS estimates that in NC over 13,000 newborn children per year have blood levels of Hg that put them at risk of neurological deficits such as learning disabilities, fine motor and attention deficits, and lowered IQ, some folks deny that there is a problem. Herein I will try to deepen member's understanding of our mercury situation. Perhaps such a review should be written by a medically trained person, but the issue also involves the physics, chemistry, and biology of the lake, so I will presume.

Hg is a naturally occurring metal in the earth's crust. More dense than lead, it is about as plentiful as silver, and about 20 times more plentiful than gold. Unlike our experience with other metals, it is a dense liquid at temperatures above -39° (either F or C) and, like other liquids, it vaporizes, to become airborne. Volcanoes, forest fires, coal burning and other industrial processes all release Hg in elemental, ionic, and particulate forms into the atmosphere where it slowly falls out over six months to a year, and hence can be carried and deposited as either dry deposition or washed out in rainfall (wet deposition) at great distances. It has been used in industrial processes and consumer products like dental fillings, mercurochrome, medical thermometers, electrical switches, florescent light bulbs, etc., for many years. Its occurrence in the surface environment has increased by a factor of 3 to 5 since preindustrial times. It has been much-used in mining operations, mostly in the west, but also in north Georgia, and if there were any of those in the Lake Glenville flooded area or watershed, there may still be some Hg leaching out from those sites.

I remember, as a young sprat growing up on a farm in the far northwest, coating seed potatoes with a Hg-based fungicide before planting. That procedure probably was used here in NC also, and there may still be some residues hanging around and leaching into our waterways. However, I do not believe that such legacy sources are of importance in Lake Glenville. Along with waste incineration, most uses have been phased out or banned in recent decades. Smokestack emissions from coal- burning electrical power plants are the major remaining cultural enhancement of environmental Hg. Coal contains only about 0.2 parts per million Hg, but a lot of coal is burned, and with Hg small concentrations matter.

All heavy metals are known for their toxicity, and Hg is the most dangerous of the lot. It has no known human metabolic function, but it is a potent neurotoxin in all its molecular forms. Most public notice has been in connection with its neurological effects, especially among developing children or fetuses, but Hg poisoning is also a causal or aggravating factor in adult maladies like hypertension, cardiovascular, and renal afflictions. Early neurological symptoms of Hg poisoning are loss of motor skills and dulled sense of touch, taste, and sight. Extreme cases can be crippling or fatal.

Brief contact with liquid elemental Hg is not notably dangerous. I played with some found in an unused high school chemistry lab. It would coat pennies or other metallic objects to bright silver color, and could be “cooked-off“ with a candle flame. The cooked-off vapor is very dangerous. Luckily, I lost interest in it early on; in later years two of my professional colleagues suffered debilitating effects from breathing Hg vapor in poorly ventilated laboratories. The principal remaining human exposures to Hg poisoning are respiration of elemental Hg vapor and, most commonly, consumption of Hg-contaminated seafood.

The greatest exposure to humans results from Hg that is deposited from the atmosphere and finds its way into water bodies, where microorganisms use it in their metabolism, converting it to a different form, methyl mercury (MeHg). Hg in this form is far more toxic, evidently because its molecule mimics a common amino acid, enabling it to cross the blood-brain barrier, where it resides for a long time with destructive effects, and the placental barrier to affect the fetal brain The biological half-life of MeHg is 2 to 3 months. Older and larger piscivorous fish typically are more contaminated than smaller and short-lived omnivores. Minute amounts of MeHg are usually tolerated by organisms, but its persistence means that as small organisms are eaten by progressively larger creatures their MeHg content is cumulative, or biomagnified, so the largest and oldest fish, like the humans who consume them, get the largest dose and also accumulate MeHg. Biomagnification factors exceeding one million are not uncommon.

Another name for acute MeHg poisoning is Minimata disease, named for a coastal region in Japan where over 2000 people were afflicted, of which more than a thousand died, from eating MeHg-contaminated fish. Similar but lesser disasters have occurred in Canada and Iraq. It is commonly said that terrestrial animals are not subject to MeHg contamination. That is mostly true; you will not experience Hg damage from eating pheasant or venison, as these animals are herbivores, but there are exceptions. Fish-eating animals, like seals, otters, or osprey, understandably suffer the effects of Hg poisoning. There are consumption advisories for some species of wild ducks harvested on peripheral waters of the Great Salt Lake, which has extremely high Hg concentration. Another interesting example is the Carolina wren. It accumulates MeHg by eating spiders, which in turn biomagnify MeHg by preying on insects. Early effects observed in such species often include reduced reproductive success.

I have found no reports of measurements of HG in water from Lake Glenville, or any other lakes of the Southern Appalachian region. Only about 10% of the Hg deposited on the surrounding forest lands finds its way into lakes. The major part is either stored in the trees and soils or re-emitted to the atmosphere. Using best guesses based on mercury deposition data from a site in the Great Smokey Mountains National Park, the area and volume of the lake, its watershed area, and several research papers, I estimated the mercury concentration that could be expected in Lake Glenville as about 2.2 nanograms per liter (ng/l). For those not conversant with nanograms or liters, that is the equivalent of dispersing about three- fourths cup of liquid mercury into the full pool volume of Lake Glenville. My estimate of 2.2 ng/l is not a particularly high value. It is 20% less than the average of values measured by the USGS and Canadian counterparts in 277 lakes of New England and eastern Canada. All of these states and provinces issue fish consumption advisories including total avoidance because they have some lakes with Hg concentrations approaching 20 ng/l. Even these levels pose no threat to human health from contact with the water. The EPA standard for drinking water is 2000 ng/l. The Hg content reported for our walleye amounts to a magnification factor of about 750,000 relative to my estimate for Hg in Lake Glenville water. Considering that about 10% of Hg in lake water is in the MeHg form, but 90% of that in fish is MeHg, that highly toxic form is magnified by nearly 7 million.

Several factors converge to make Lake Glenville and other regional reservoirs especially susceptible to occurrence of MeHg. First, Hg emissions are a global problem (yes, some of our Hg originated in China), but sites near a source experience more exposure than do more distant areas. The Tennessee Valley region has numerous coal-fired power plants and our heavy rainfall provides ample local washout of atmospheric Hg. Also, we have frequent thunderstorms which extend to greater height in the atmosphere than other rainstorms, and bring down more Hg from more distant sources. The bacterial conversion of Hg to MeHg is enhanced in oligotrophic lakes with low or no dissolved oxygen and low pH (i.e., acidic water). All these conditions are characteristic of Lake Glenville, and probably of all deep reservoirs in the Southern Appalachians. Our lake is manifestly oligotrophic; it is always acidic due to the acidity of our rain and the chemistry of the regional rock and soil. Notably, the same power plants that release Hg also spew carbon dioxide which increases the acidity of rain, and of our lake. At the end of every summer water at depths greater than about 30 feet contains little or no oxygen. The bottom sediments probably are perpetually anoxic, exactly the conditions the troublesome microorganisms need to convert Hg to MeHg. Lake Glenville may in fact have a more favorable outlook than some other regional reservoirs. Due to activation of the Hg stored therein by flooding of uplands, young reservoirs typically experience elevated Hg concentrations in water and fish for up to 30 years or more. At age 76 our reservoir should be well along with disposal of that initial charge.

Another factor, particular to Lake Glenville, is that due to years of spawning failures, all, or virtually all, of our walleye are 9 years or more of age. By having consumed more and larger prey, older and larger fish typically have accumulated a higher body burden of Hg than younger fish, so our walleye population has a higher average level of Hg than would a population with a more normal age structure. It is also conceivable that the spawning failures might in turn be a result of Hg contamination. As noted above, reproductive failures have been seen to result from Hg poisoning in other species. The recent advent of spawning failures suggests a recent increase of Hg concentration in the lake, perhaps due to change of lake management practice. Two possibilities come to mind. Prior to about year 2000 the lake had been lowered in winter to about the 80 foot datum, but under the recently negotiated agreement Duke Energy lowers it to only the 90-foot level. In consequence the nominal “flushing” of the lake has been reduced from about 40% to 20%. The total flushing is of course strictly determined by the amount of rainfall received, so what really has changed is the timing of the flushing process. Also, perhaps due to anomalous weather, early season water levels have been higher than historical, which increases erosion of the shoreline and falling of trees into the lake, releasing the Hg contained therein. Or, it may be that the Hg concentration in the region is in fact increasing, and began exceeding a critical threshold for walleye about a decade ago in Lake Glenville.

Mercury contamination is a global problem, and applies to market fish, mostly marine, as well. Over one-third of US exposure to Hg is believed to be due to consumption of tuna. Tuna are only moderately high in MeHg, but a lot of tuna is eaten. Over the last 50 years large reductions of mercury releases have been made in both North America and Europe, reducing Hg inputs to the North Atlantic Ocean by both atmospheric deposition and coastal and riverine waste discharges. In consequence, an 80% reduction of Hg has been measured in North Atlantic waters between 1990 and 2009. This is similar to the 85% reduction of lead between 1979 between 1998 and 2008 following the phaseout of leaded gasoline. In consequence, scientists from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography reported results from a review of 2662 analyses of Hg in fish done between 1969 and 2012. They found that the concentration of Hg in fish is decreasing, most notably in the North Atlantic, but that there are large regional differences. Part of the decrease of Hg concentration in the North Atlantic may be due to vertical mixing which is particularly vigorous there. Closer to home, it was reported in 2016 by staff of NOAA and Duke Univ. that bluefish, a popular coastal sport fish known for accumulating Hg and other pollutants, caught in North Carolina coastal waters in 2011 contained 43% less Hg than the same species collected in the same way during 1972. The Hg content is still too high, but 10% per decade reduction came as a pleasant surprise. On the other hand, it was recently found that Hg in tuna from the Pacific Ocean have been increasing at a rate of 3.8% per year since 1998, resulting in a near doubling of their Hg concentration. This increase of Hg in Pacific tuna is attributed to the increased Hg releases associated with rapid industrialization in east Asia.

A report on temporal trends of wet deposition of Hg using data from U.S. and Canadian mercury deposition networks published in October 2016 reveals that wet deposition of Hg had declined overall from 1997 to about 2008, then, up to 2013, it became more or less steady. Results are still uncertain because the data are highly variable, and the term short, but they support an hypothesis that post-2008, deposition continued to decline as a result of reduced emissions in industrial areas of the U.S., but began to rise in mountainous rural areas of the west due to global atmospheric transport from rapidly developing parts of the world. The nearest and most relevant measurement site to Lake Glenville is in the Great Smokey Mountains National Park, where deposition is found to be increasing at 1% to 2% a year recently.

The basis for fish consumption advisories for Lake Glenville merit special consideration. Such advisories have been vigorously criticized, mostly by the seafood industry, but also by power companies and their advocates due to the implied threat of restrictions on burning of coal. Because great individual variability exists of both the accumulation of MeHg from diet and the response to dosage, setting consumption limits is difficult. Toxicity experiments cannot be done on human populations. Data from extreme poisoning events like Minimata or Iraq identify the results of gross exposure, but the exposures resulting in gross effects were not well documented. Studies of populations with heavy dependence on seafood of the Faroe and Sechelles Islands and New Zealand have provided the basis for evaluating the effects of low-level chronic dietary exposure. The problem is complicated by the facts that there probably is no exposure to MeHg below which there is zero adverse effect, and that there are no human populations with zero exposure to Hg. It has been determined that the most sensitive susceptibility is to neurological damage to fetuses and children. Standards were identified at which no more than 5% of additional children above the most sensitive 5% should suffer adverse effects at the highest level of consumption. Then an extra factor of 10 was applied to allow for uncertainty of the determination. It has been necessary to assume that modest relaxation of advisories based on neurological development of children will provide an adequate safety margin for other, adult, effects.

There is some merit in the argument from the seafood lobby that seafood contains beneficial nutrient elements such as omega-3 that are essential to fetuses and children. Some of these elements have in fact been found to offset the detrimental effects of MeHg. This benefit is limited to low dosage however, while adverse effects of MeHg continue to increase with dosage. The beneficial effects of eating seafood have been evaluated by the FDA and are factored into the most recent advisories.

The question has been asked “What can we, the FLG or its members, do to help alleviate the problem?” We cannot change the physical and biochemical laws that move Hg through the ecosystem. An easy start would be to support or seek support for some actual measurements of Hg in lake water to help define the problem. Stocking to restore the walleye population to a more normal age structure might reduce the average Hg concentration to below the State action level (take away the signs at the boat ramps) as well as improve the walleye catch, but the body burden of the most-sought older and larger fish would likely be as great as at present.

I have seen virtual floating islands of fallen leaves that Lakeside property owners had blown off their property onto the lake. Bad practice! The largest component of mercury deposition into the surrounding forest is from litterfall (leaves, twigs, blossoms and nuts/fruits), but only about 10% of the Hg content of this material finds its way into the lake. If dumped directly into the lake 100% soon sinks and provides the resource for microorganisms to deplete the oxygen and convert the contained Hg to MeHg. Also of course, take care with disposal of fluorescent light bulbs and other Hg-containing refuse.

A geoengineering solution that has been applied in some lakes would be to eliminate the seasonal anoxia condition by pumping oxygen deep into the lake. This technology would benefit our cool and cold water fishes, walleye and trout, that are seasonally pinched between near-surface waters that are too warm, and deeper, cooler waters that are oxygen deficient, but is certainly beyond the resources of the FLG, and probably would be a hard sell to the County, State ,or Duke Energy.

Perhaps the most important action is to persuade our congressional and state representation that elimination or enervation of the EPA and other environmental agencies is not a good idea, or to replace these officials with more enlightened individuals. To expect that state-level government can or will prevail over the interests of big business, foreign governments, or even other states, is naive or disingenuous. The global community has been reasonably cooperative in regard to mercury and some other environmental pollutants, but, if the U.S. defects, probably all is lost.

As a boon to fishermen, every bass or walleye taken out of the lake carries its burden of MeHg with it, a singularly fun way to take mercury out of the lake. Catch all you can; just be careful of how many you eat, and don't forget about the tuna sandwiches and any other Hg-laden items tin your diet.

Donald Hansen, PhD

Dr. Hansen holdes a BS in physics and an MS and PhD in physical oceanography from the University of Washington in Seattle. Throughout the course of his career, he has served as a meterological officer in the US Army, an engineer with Boeing, a science teacher, a researcher with the National Oceanographic and Meteorologicial Administration (NOAA) and adjunct professor at the University of Miami. He began summering at Lake Glenville in 1993 where, in 1996 and to satisfy his own curiosity, he began making simple water quality measurements. Now in league with FLG,  these measurementshave progressively improved in number, scope, and instrumentation. His findings can be found here on the FLG website and in the FLG Archives.

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July 23, 2015

Mark Carney: Magna Carta and the Bank of England

16 July, ‘From Lincoln to Lothbury: Magna Carta and the Bank of England’, Lincoln Cathedral. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, Speaker.

The lecture below was part of the Lincoln Magna Carta Lecture Series:
Click here to read the lecture at the

A burst of inflation. A crisis in the public finances. Public sector bailouts. Infighting in Europe. Not eight years ago, but eight hundred. That was the economic context for the striking of Magna Carta.

To many today, Magna Carta is a document of profound, almost mythical, significance. It is seen as the cornerstone of the United Kingdom’s constitutional arrangements and as a blueprint for the constitutions of many other nations, including the United States. It is credited with establishing the foundations of parliamentary democracy, creating a framework for the rule of law, protecting individual liberty, defending the rights of the innocent, and limiting the role of the State.

It is undoubtedly true that Magna Carta – or more correctly the idea of Magna Carta – has played a central role in British political development over the centuries, not least as a banner under which those seeking liberty from oppression have rallied. But many modern scholars argue that its significance, in and of itself, has been overstated. They characterise Magna Carta as a pragmatic political document that was a product of its time, including the difficult economic circumstances that then prevailed.

As usual with historical arguments, the answer lies somewhere in between. In what follows, I will spend a few moments on the pragmatic element not only because it plays to my comparative advantage as an economist but also because it ultimately underscores the foundational character of the document itself. The enduring legacy of Magna Carta is how its strictures on unconstrained power are reflected in our systems of political and economic governance.

I will conclude that both the constitutional and pragmatic perspectives are relevant to modern central banking and the current conduct of monetary policy. Specifically, the costs of inflation were among the key economic catalysts of Magna Carta, and its core constitutional legacy – namely the importance of delegated authority, with clear lines of public accountability – is at the heart of the Bank of England’s institutional arrangements. In the spirit of Magna Carta, the Bank of England has been given a great responsibility: to deliver monetary stability for the good of the people of the United Kingdom. Our goal, the 2 per cent inflation target, is set by the Government, and we operate under constrained discretion in its pursuit.

1. The economic and political context: Where did Magna Carta come from?
The political background is one of nearly constant conflict both within the dysfunctional ‘English’ monarchical family, as well as with France over control of Normandy and the rest of Henry II’s continental empire.

The England of the 1200s was far from a unitary state. Most matters were administered by local barons, with the King acting as an arbiter in the event of a dispute. The relationship between local (baronial) and central (monarchical) authority was much less deferential, and much more arms-length, than it is today. Indeed, the early Plantagenet Kings of England spent most of their time living at home in Normandy or Anjou, allowing the English barons a considerable degree of autonomy. It was only after King John lost Normandy to the French in 1204 that the King resided full-time in England, breathing down the necks of the barons, who did not much like the closer observation of their activities, and the eyeing of their stockpiles of silver that this proximity entailed.

The relationship between the barons and King John broke down in part because of unsustainable public finances, with John imposing an intolerably heavy and arbitrary tax burden in order to pay for royal extravagance, infighting, and wars with the French. The royal judicial system, whose tendrils extended ever deeper into the barons’ lives, was used to extort cash and as an instrument of royal control, rather than to ensure ‘justice’. What lay behind such unsustainable public finances?

First, and most obviously, the need to pay for constant military protection for the Normandy estates created what modern-day macroeconomists would think of as an enormous structural deficit. If John had let his expulsion from the continent be the end of the matter this financial burden would have extinguished itself. But he did not. His folly was a series of vain attempts to re-conquer Normandy, efforts which finally ended on the eve of Magna Carta.

Second, the monarchic finances had taken a colossal hit in 1193 because of the need to fund a gigantic public sector bailout. Richard I had managed to get himself caught in Germany on his way back from the Holy Land and was held to ransom for £66,000 in silver. Being ‘Too Big To Jail’, the equivalent of two to three times annual crown income was needed to bail him out. In comparison, the government’s peak cash support to UK banks in 2007-2010 amounted to a trifling one-quarter of annual UK government revenues.

For an excellent summary, see Vincent, N (2012), Magna Carta: a very short introduction, Oxford University Press. His allies were finally defeated in 1214 at the Battle of Bouvines, which ended the 1202-1214 Anglo-French War. This would have been bad enough on its own. What was even worse was that it had come only five years after the collection of the ‘Saladin Tithe’, a windfall tax of a similar amount, in order to pay for a campaign to wrestle Jerusalem out of the hands of Salahuddin Ayubi, who had captured it in 1187. That cost the barons one-tenth of all their revenues and movable property.

Third, the need to raise additional cash for the public finances was made much more problematic by the strain of inflation, which accelerated in the early years of the 13th century. The problem was that a large proportion of regular crown income came in the form of ‘farms’, which were fixed rental payments for leases to use the King’s land for agriculture. These farms were fixed by custom in nominal terms, whereas the King’s expenditures were not. The King’s finances were unhedged.

In fairness to the monarchy, there was not an enormous amount that could be done about this. There was obviously no CPI(H) to which the leasehold rents could be indexed. The UK’s statistical challenges have a long history. The preferred way of hedging the risk was to kick the leaseholders off the land, and bring it into direct demesne management. This is what the barons themselves had been doing with their own land holdings. By taking it into demesne control, instead of receiving a fixed nominal rent, the lord of the manor could take receipt of the real output of the land, which could be consumed, traded, or sold for silver at the going spot
price. The consequence was that the richer the baron, the more land he had to exploit, and the greater his potential profits.

The effect was to create a massively wealthy elite of oligarchs, now breaking free both of the middling ranks of the gentry at one end, and of the hard-pressed King (or public sector) at the other. In all of this, the option of demesne management was infeasible for the King, likely because it would have involved destabilising relations with the administrative class of ‘sheriffs’ and other royal officials upon whom the King’s political stability depended.

Causes of the inflation
Forget royal infighting, wars or the whiff of revolution, it is inflation that really sets the pulses of central bankers racing. And for good reason because closer inspection suggests that inflation may have been a significant catalyst to Magna Carta.

Latimer (2001) suggests that the inflation was concentrated in the first six years or so of the thirteenth century. See Latimer, P (2001), “The English inflation of 1180-1220 reconsidered”, Past and Present, No. 171, pages 3-29. Harvey, P. D. A., (1973), “The English inflation of 1180-1220”, Past and Present, No. 61, pages 3-30.

Given the countless other abuses of authority that were going on at the time, one wonders why it was so problematic for the rents
simply to be ‘renegotiated’ periodically. In part, custom dictated that this was not the done thing. In part, the problem lay with the ‘sheriffs’ in each of England’s counties. They were responsible for collecting the fixed farms from the King’s assets. In normal years, they made an enormous profit, paying only a small fixed farm to the King, yet raking in a great deal more in terms of the real income of the counties. They were accustomed to keeping this surplus. Any attempt to reform this system, by reducing the imbalance between real income and fixed farm threatened to destabilise relations between the King and the vitally significant administrative class of sheriffs and other royal officials upon whom the King’s political stability depended. As a result, the Kings’ preference was to find other ways of raising the cash.

Historians estimate that prices were rising sharply in the early 1200s. The prices of agricultural goods, including wheat and oxen, probably doubled in that period. Evidence suggests that prices of linen, wax, lead and even palfreys – the Toyota Prius of medieval horses – were also rising rapidly. Wages were rising as well – and to a greater extent than could have just been the consequence of medieval real-wage resistance. King John was paying his knights almost three times as much as Henry II (even though they weren’t as productive on the battlefield). The daily rate for foot-soldiers had doubled. And limited evidence suggests the wages of skilled labourers on the crown estates probably increased by a similar proportion.

With pay growth approaching 20% a year, wages really were fizzing! The underlying causes of this inflation are debated among historians, but the most convincing argument is that the inflation was a monetary one, albeit with a twist. Not surprisingly, the quantitative information on the thirteenth century money supply is of very poor quality, imputed, as it has been, from archaeological finds of cash hoards.11

Latimer notes that “…between the middle of the twelfth century and the middle of the thirteenth century there was an enormous increase in the quantity of silver coins in England.” As well as the possibility of a general increase in the European silver supply (especially with the opening up of the Harz silver mines in eastern Germany), it is likely that silver inflows to England in particular were boosted as the counterpart to a sizeable private trade surplus – probably resulting, especially, from the success of the wool trade with Flanders. Over several decades, these silver inflows were likely to have much more than offset the ‘public sector deficit’ as silver leaked out to pay for the protection of Normandy as well as the occasional trip to the Holy Land. As a result, the balance of payments was probably in surplus for years, with the consequent increase in the silver money supply going unsterilised. Even to a thirteenth century Englishman, global monetary conditions mattered. Would Britain’s constitutional history have been different had King John lamented: A Central Bank! A Central Bank! My Kingdom for a Central Bank!?

He needed one because other factors reinforced monetary developments, including the usual suspect – financial innovation. Specifically, developments in the common law made land an increasingly liquid asset, and therefore one capable for the first time of being used as a store of wealth. This set a medieval financial accelerator in train (about 750 years before Ben Bernanke coined the term) by providing an alternative to storing one’s wealth in silver coin (prone to being whisked away by the King). This led to a reduction in the demand for silver money balances. An increase in money velocity would have followed and with it, all else being equal, price inflation until the transactions demand for silver had risen sufficiently to equal its supply. At the very least, the existence of an alternative store of wealth provided an environment in which money velocity could take off, were it to be nudged in that direction. One possible nudge was the anticipation of the re-coinage of 1204.14 Re-coinages were good for the King
because he benefitted from the seigniorage of the re-minting fee. They were bad for cash holders both because of the re-minting fee and because they had to exchange their clipped coins for what they were actually worth, rather than their face value (a medieval haircut – some of which were appalling). Consequently, there was a strong incentive not to be the one holding the old-issue coins when the music stopped.

So to sum up: a fiscal squeeze exacerbated by accelerating inflation, combined with monarchical ambition and incompetence to stretch and then break relations with the barons.

2. Constitutional significance
In that context, Magna Carta was a desperate (and probably disingenuous) attempt at a peace treaty that failed almost immediately.
Brokered by the Church, and issued by King John in June 1215, the Charter sought to placate the disgruntled barons. It is doubtful that John ever intended to uphold his side of the bargain, with all the constraints on his authority that this implied. Indeed, within a few months of its agreement, by the end of August 1215, John had convinced Pope Innocent III to annul the Charter on the grounds that it had been issued under duress.16 The 1215 Magna Carta was never enacted, and England slipped into the First
Barons’ War.

Charters of this type were not uncommon at that time. It had been fairly routine, in fact, for English kings to attempt to curry favour with the nobles upon whom the stability of their realm depended by rubbishing the reputations of their predecessors and issuing ‘coronation charters’ that demonstrated how virtuous and peace-loving they were by comparison. It was also fairly routine for kings to renege on the promises in those charters, creating fertile ground to begin the cycle anew. What was novel about Magna Carta was that: (a) it was longer and more detailed than its predecessors; and (b) it was issued not at John’s coronation, but under compulsion from a true political opposition, sixteen years into his reign and evidentially too late to serve its purpose. This brings a second observation. Obnoxious and tyrannical as he might have been, King John was not solely to blame for the aristocratic discontent that led to Magna Carta. His predecessors had reneged on their promises, mismanaged the realm and imperilled its finances. John’s administrative and military incompetence were merely the straws that broke the camel’s back.

If Magna Carta was such a product of its time, how did it become to be so venerated? And once we cut through the legend, what is its significance for economic governance today? The revisionist interpretation of Magna Carta as a timeless statement of natural rights and liberties became imprinted onto the minds of the English-speaking world only in the 17th century. In large part, this was due to
the work of Edward Coke. As well as being an enormously influential jurist, Coke was also the author of popular English legal textbooks that exported his views around the world. Coke resurrected the long-forgotten Magna Carta from 400 years of obscurity by appealing to its spirit in order to resist the absolutist tendencies of the Stuart Kings James I and his son Charles I – themselves inspired by the continental European model of monarchic divine-right. The Charter, Coke argued, could trace its lineage from an ancient constitution that harked back not just to the time of pre-Norman King Edward the Confessor, but to King Arthur himself (!): an ancient constitution that was now being imperilled – and with it the Englishman’s rightful way of life – by the tyrannical behaviour of the Stuarts. Despite the efforts of Coke and others, Charles I’s rejection of all enterprise to constrain his authority led to the English Civil War and to the king’s beheading in 1649. Meanwhile, Coke’s unstoppable Magna Carta redux had been set in motion. In contradiction to their behaviour at home, James and Charles had been busily granting royal charters promising the liberties of Englishmen to the American colonists. Coke himself had been involved in the drafting of the first charter of the Virginia Company in 1606, and similar English liberties were extended in the charters of Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Carolina over the next sixty years. Some have argued that references to Magna Carta, however irrelevant its provisions might by then have been, were used as a way of ‘drumming up’ New World settlers. To this day, 25 US States have extracts from Magna Carta on their statute books; a further 17 have the full text. Goodness knows how the latter intend to enforce the removal of “[a]ll fish-weirs … from the Thames, the Medway, and throughout the whole of England, except on the sea coast” (Clause 33). Of course, sometimes American extraterritoriality literally knows no bounds.

Coke’s romantic resurrection of Magna Carta transformed it into part of the backdrop to the American Revolution, with his influence clearly evident in the drafting of the US Constitution.

We have seen how the economic forces and political developments of the time played a crucial part in the mounting hostilities between King John and the barons that led to Magna Carta and First Barons’ War. Given that background, it is not as shocking as it first seems that Magna Carta is very largely taken up with the parochial interests of the rich. It is dominated by three basic themes: taxes; abuses of the ‘judicial system’ with the aim of raising revenue; and the protection of the barons’ mercantile interests. Given how irrelevant those specific concerns now seem, it is hardly surprising that almost all of the Charter’s
clauses that survived the 1225 re-issue (and therefore made it into the law in the first place) have since been repealed. In fact, only four clauses of the original 66 remain. These stand out as different in character from the others. They are much more general, universal and timeless. They are:

– Clause 1: Freedom for the Church.
– Clause 13: Protection for the ‘ancient liberties’ of the City of London.
– Clause 39: No wrongful imprisonment. Perhaps the most famous clause. “No free man shall be seized
– Clause 40: Justice is not for sale.

Added to that, the spirit of Clause 12 of the 1215 Magna Carta (dropped from all later reissues), that “no ‘scutage’ or ‘aid’ may be levied in our kingdom without its general consent…”, is clearly what would later become ‘no taxation without representation’: to establish a council (the embryonic embodiment of what would later become Parliament) to agree whatever new taxes the King might demand.

Whatever their purpose at the time, the more universal clauses that remain on the statute book certainly resonate today. They in effect encompass the idea of the rule of law and of due process as a means to ensure justice. It is tempting, therefore, to think of these clauses as being the enduring legacy of Magna Carta, while at the same time allowing ourselves to patronise the juxtaposition of these apparently fundamental principles alongside so much antiquated gibberish about fish-weirs, the obligation to construct
bridges, and the theft of wood for building castles.

This would, I think, be a mistake. The specificity of the clauses animates the general principles. It is because they are detailed and targeted at the concerns of the time that they are a genuine attempt to place a boundary on the authority of the King, rather than relying on vague platitudes. Magna Carta was nowhere near the first attempt to encapsulate ideas of justice and good government, nor was it the last. Indeed, it was a spectacularly unsuccessful attempt – and it was anyway concerned only with
the interests of a very small segment of society. But, largely because King John’s heirs were forced into a tight corner and therefore obliged to reissue the charter again and again after 1215 (in 1216, 1217, 1225, 1234, 1253, 1265, 1297 and 1300, to cite only the more famous reissues), it is Magna Carta that has become the icon of the principle that the exercise of authority requires permission from those subject to that authority – and that, once granted, this permission can just as easily be withdrawn. At its most idealised, Magna Carta makes clear that power derives from the people and constrains the authority of the state. The state can in turn devolve power – to regions – and to independent bodies. But these bodies can never forget from where their power came or to whom they are responsible. Their authority is constrained to that necessary to pursue specific objectives and they are accountable to the people for their performance.

3. Monetary policy outlook
The Bank’s current Monetary Policy framework embodies these principles. It wasn’t always the case. The Bank of England was brought into public ownership in 1946. As former Governor Eddie George remarked, for the half century that followed “the Bank operated under legislation which, remarkably, did not attempt to define our objectives or functions.” They were, instead, “assumed to carry over from [the Bank’s] earlier long history.” In that regard, the Bank’s ‘constitution’ resembled that of the United Kingdom more broadly, comprising a rich history of law, principle and convention.

Even the ‘fish weirs’ clause (33) can be read, in hindsight, as a protection both of the public good (in Roman law terms, res publica) and of the freedom of navigation: the same principle for the which the English entered into the Seven Years War of 1756-63, whose costs, in turn, brought about the American Revolution of 1776.

All changed with the passing of the Bank of England Act in 1998, which made specific “provision about the constitution, regulation, financial arrangements and functions of the Bank.” The Act brought great clarity to the Bank’s responsibilities and granted independence to the Bank for the operation of monetary policy. In delegating authority to an independent body in this way, the Act ensured the Bank would operate under what Mervyn King described as ‘constrained’ rather than ‘unfettered’ discretion. The Bank would be accountable to Parliament for operating the instruments of monetary policy to achieve the objectives of monetary policy,
which would be determined by the Government.

The operational independence of the Bank of England is an example of power flowing from the people via Parliament within carefully circumscribed limits. Independence in turn demands accountability in order that the Bank commands the legitimacy it needs to fulfil its mission. By publishing its analysis, giving testimony, and delivering speeches, the Bank explains how it is exercising its powers to achieve its clearly defined policy Remits.

To illustrate these points, I will conclude with some reflections on monetary policy. Our objective, given to us by Parliament, is to maintain price stability and, subject to that, to support the economic policy of Her Majesty’s Government, including its objectives for growth and employment. Our Remit builds in important accountability and transparency mechanisms. One of which is the requirement for the Governor to write an open letter to the Chancellor if inflation moves away from its 2 per cent target by more than one percentage point.

Inflation developments
I am in the middle of a likely sequence of such open letters – I have another one due next month – on account of the record low inflation the UK is experiencing this year, currently at zero per cent. Such letters must explain, among other things, why inflation has deviated from target and what policy actions the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is taking in response.

The ‘why’ is straightforward. The bulk of the shortfall of inflation below target can be explained by the sharp fall in the prices of commodities and other imported goods since last year. Of these, the single most important factor has been the steep drop in energy prices globally. The rise in the value of sterling has also played an important role in lowering non-energy import prices, which have fallen over the past twelve months. The sum total of these effects has been to drag inflation below target by around
1½ percentage points. This temporary period of below-target inflation has provided a welcome boost to real household income.

Inflation looking ahead
The MPC’s intention is to return inflation to target in a sustainable manner within two years. That means setting Bank Rate to eliminate the remaining slack in the economy, bringing about the sustained increase in costs necessary to achieve overall inflation of 2%.

I expect that this will involve raising Bank Rate over the next three years from its current all-time low of ½ per cent. The need for Bank Rate to rise reflects the momentum in the economy and a gradual firming of underlying inflationary pressures – a firming that will become more apparent as the effects of past commodity price falls drop out of the annual inflation rate around the end of the year. It also reflects the lags in monetary policy, given that the peak impact on inflation of a given adjustment in interest rates is likely to materialise around 18-24 months after the change.

As the economy evolves, different factors will become worthy of particular attention in informing the timing, pace and degree of likely Bank Rate increases. At the current juncture, three stand out. First are the prospects that sustained momentum in economic activity will wring out any remaining slack. This will require sustained growth above its past average of around 0.6 per cent per quarter.
Even though the current recovery has been the slowest since the Great Depression, taking around 1½ years longer to regain lost ground than it did following the recession of the 1930s, the signs are encouraging. Looking through the blip in the first quarter, the economy has now been growing above trend for a year and unemployment has fallen sharply over the past two. Consumer confidence is around its highest level for over a decade. Businesses investment intentions are solid. Momentum in the housing market is showing
signs of returning. Survey data point to continued momentum in real activity over the remainder of this year.

To be sure, the international risks to the growth outlook remain. The situation in Greece is fluid, and the on-going slowdown in China could prove more significant. But on balance we can expect the global economy to proceed at a solid, not spectacular, pace.
Second, domestic costs need to continue to firm. After a period of particularly weak wage growth, which reflected a marked expansion in labour supply that is now largely absorbed, wage growth is picking up.

Based on average quarterly GDP growth since 1993. The impact of Buy to Let changes will be examined in August Inflation Report. In our May projections, the MPC expected PPP-weighted worth growth of 3 ¼ per cent in 2015 and 3 ¾ per cent in 2016 and 2017, just shy of the pre-crisis average of around 4 per cent.

I discussed labour supply developments in the UK in detail last autumn. (See Carney, M (2014), Speech to the Trades Union Congress
Annual Conference, 9th September 2014.)

The recent growth in wages has been stronger than we had expected in May, though most of the upside news was in bonuses, which are a less reliable guide to firms’ future labour costs. At a minimum, when taken together with survey indicators that continue to point to solid pay growth for new recruits, recent data give welcome reassurance that the risks associated with a deflationary mindset in the labour market have likely fallen significantly.

Further positive wage developments should be supported by a continued tightening in the labour market. Job-to-job flows remain around post-crisis highs and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment is now back to its pre-crisis average. However, what matters for inflation is not wage growth in isolation but wage growth relative to productivity. Put simply, firms are less likely to raise their prices if higher wages reflect more output per hour worked. Along with faster wage growth, there have been signs of faster productivity growth since the turn of the year. This may well mean firms’ unit labour costs have not picked up quite to the degree we had expected in our May Inflation Report. It’s too early to be definitive. Weighing past disappointments and recent indications of a pick-up, it is prudent to recognise that two-sided risks to productivity growth remain. What is clear is that to return inflation to target, growth in labour costs must pick up further from their current rate of less than one per cent. The extent needed depends on what is happening to other costs. In the decade prior to the crisis, labour costs grew by around 2½ per cent each year on average, with wages and salaries growing at around 4¾ per cent and productivity at 2¼ per cent. Inflation averaged 2 per cent, however, in part because import prices rose only by around ¼ per cent each year at the same time. The possibility that history might repeat itself points to a third important consideration: the need to monitor developments in firms’ costs other than labour. The sum of these is evident in so-called ‘core’ inflation, which are measures of prices that strip out the most volatile determinants of inflation, like energy prices, revealing more persistent trends. In an open economy like the United Kingdom’s, those factors include import prices, which are affected by movements in the value of sterling, and which, on past experience, cantake a considerable time to pass through to core inflation.

Unlike regular pay, bonuses are closer in spirit to dividend payments, being state-contingent disbursements of profits. That
observation may imply bonus payments are a useful cyclical indicator, although interpreting the data is potentially complicated by
changes in taxes that shift the incentive to pay bonuses over time. Accounting for the mis-measurement of clothing and footwear prices, which existed until 2010 and biased measured annual CPI inflation downwards by around 0.4 percentage points. See Bank of England (2011), Inflation Report, February, box on page 39. 28 One way to illustrate the impact of import prices is to consider measures of core inflation adjusted for import intensity. These measures suggest that the current rate of core inflation is being dragged down by import prices by around 1 percentage point. That is a sizeable effect, and reflects, in part, changes in the value of sterling. The core measure referred to here is CPI inflation excluding food, energy, education, alcohol, tobacco and VAT, and the measure adjusted for import prices weights each component of the core index by the inverse of its import intensity.

Not only are the effects sizeable, but, on past experience, they are potentially protracted. The impact of sterling’s 25% depreciation following the onset of the financial crisis on import prices was one factor that contributed to high inflation throughout 2008-12. The potential for these effects to be persistent highlights their relevance at the policy horizon.

Over the past few years, core inflation has been particularly subdued, and it remains less than one per cent. We need to see increases in core inflation to have a reasonable expectation that, in the absence of further shocks, overall CPI inflation will return to 2 per cent within the MPC’s stated objective of two years.

Policy strategy
Delivering the growth in activity, the rise in domestic costs and the firming in core inflation measures necessary to return inflation to target requires monetary policy to be set appropriately both now and prospectively. In this regard, one concern has been the constraint imposed on monetary policy by the effective lower bound on policy rates.

In my view, with the healing of the financial sector and the lessening of some of the headwinds facing the economy, that concern has become less pressing with the passage of time. As I made clear in my first open letter in February, were downside risks to inflation to materialise the MPC could decide either to expand the Asset Purchase Facility or to cut Bank Rate further towards zero from its current level of ½ per cent.29 In the current circumstances there is no need to wait to raise rates because of a risk management approach and run the risk of inflation overshooting target.

At the same time, the timing and pace of prospective interest rate increases need to be put into perspective. Headwinds to growth and inflation remain. Growth in the parts of the global economy that matter most to the UK is running ¾ percentage points below its historic average. Sterling has appreciated around 18 per cent over the past two years and around 7 per cent since the turn of the year. This will exert a drag on inflation both through lowering import costs and by lowering world demand for UK goods. UK fiscal policy is about to tighten significantly. The average annual reduction in the cyclically-adjusted budget deficit is projected by the
OBR to increase from around ½ per cent of GDP over the past two years to around 1 per cent of GDP over the next two – and the IMF expects the UK to undergo the largest fiscal adjustment of any major advanced economy over the next five years.

Taken together, these factors suggest that the ‘equilibrium’ real rate of interest – the rate needed to keep the economy operating at potential and inflation on target – which was sharply negative during the crisis, will continue to be lower than on average in the past. It also seems likely that the equilibrium interest rate will move only slowly back up towards historically more ‘normal’ levels. Everything else equal, that suggests a prospective tightening cycle that, once it starts, will be longer and shallower than those of the past. In other words, we expect Bank Rate increases to be gradual, and limited to a level below past averages.
What does that actually mean?

To paraphrase one of my predecessors at the Bank of Canada, Gerry Bouey, we didn’t abandon the lower bound; the lower bound
abandoned us. (See Office for Budget Responsibility (2015), Economic and Fiscal Outlook, July; and IMF (2015), World Economic Outlook.)

The Bank of England is around half a millennium younger than Magna Carta. To put the limited and gradual expectation in historical context, short term interest rates have averaged around 4½ per cent since around the Bank’s inception three centuries ago, the same average as during the pre-crisis period when inflation was at target. The average pace of tightening since the adoption of inflation targeting in 1992 was around 50 basis points per quarter.

That said, the path is much more important than the precise timing of the first rate increase. And I am conscious of several important considerations which mean the actual path almost certainly will not be mechanical, linear or pre-determined. First and foremost, shocks to the economy could easily adjust the timing and magnitude of interest rate increases. Second, the largest cumulative tightening in the UK since inflation targeting was adopted was 1 ½ percentage points, compared to an average cycle of 3 percentage points for the US Federal Reserve over the same period. This likely reflects in part the greater sensitivity of
UK household balances sheets in the medium term to floating interest rates, something that could be particularly relevant in our still heavily indebted post-crisis economy. Over a half of UK mortgagors would pay higher rates in a year’s time, and close to three-quarters of mortgagors in two years’ time, were interest rates to evolve according to current market rate expectations. That is in stark contrast to the US, where even over a two-year period, less than 10 per cent mortgages would be affected directly by a change in rates. We will learn more about the importance of these sensitivities as interest rates increase. Third, developments in
the exchange rate have been important for UK inflation and activity, and in particular we have experienced persistent exchange rate pass-through to headline inflation. This risk is particularly relevant at present when the monetary policy stance of our largest trading partner is diverging with ours. Most fundamentally, there are broader macroeconomic considerations, particularly the UK’s large external imbalances. With the largest current account deficit in the advanced world, the right policy mix leans towards
tighter fiscal, more accommodative monetary and tighter macroprudential policies.

Given these considerations, the MPC will have to feel its way as it goes, monitoring a wide range of indicators and adjusting the pace and degree of Bank Rate as it learns about the effects of higher interest rates on the economy. There is, in fact, a wide distribution of possible outcomes around any expected path for Bank Rate, reflecting the inevitability that the economy will be buffeted by shocks and that monetary policy will have to adjust accordingly.

After all, as the story of Magna Carta shows, history rarely proceeds in a straight line… why should monetary

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The Philosophical Meanings of Fermat's Last Theorem

Copyright © 1992 by Dr. Tienzen (Jeh-Tween) Gong
Revised 1996

When Fermat's Last Theorem was unproven, it was very interesting. Once proven, it is no longer an interesting problem. For many, FLT was never fundamental or useful in any way. However, Fermat's last theorem points out that nature numbers are permanently entangled with (or confined to) the irrationals. Does not only the concept of permanent confinement of numbers provide a wonderful short proof for FLT, its philosophical meanings open up a new gate for mathematics.

I: Introduction

In 1640s, Pierre de Fermat wrote a note in the margin of his copy of the Arithmetica, " is impossible to separate a cube into two cubes, or a biquadrate into two biquadrates, or generally any power except a square into two powers with the same exponent. I have discovered a truly marvelous proof of this, which however the margin is not large enough to contain."
For 350 years, the best mathematical minds in the world tried to reconstruct or rediscover Fermat's proof but all failed. This marginal note is now known as Fermat's Last Theorem.

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II: Brief History

Fermat's equation (nth power of x (x^n) + nth power of y (y^n) = nth power of z (z^n)) is the combination of two equations: the Diophantine equation which must be solved in whole number, and the generalized Pythagorean equation which substitutes the 2nd power with n which can be all positive numbers. For the sake of not writing Fermat's equation repeatedly, I am giving it a unique name -- Hyper-Pythagorean-Diophantine equation or HPD equation in short. Thus, Fermat's last theorem can be restated as follow:
Fermat's Last Theorem -- There is no positive integer solution for HPD equation when n>=3.
Thus, if Fermat's last theorem is false, then we can and must find positive integer solution(s) for HPD equation when n>=3.
When n=2, HPD equation becomes traditional Pythagorean equation, and it has infinitely many whole number solutions, for example: 3^2 + 4^2 = 5^2, or 5^2 + 12^2 = 13^2, etc..
Although it is quite easy to experience that HPD equation does not have positive solution when n>=3 (for example, 2 cube + 3 cube = 35, but 4 cube = 64), it is an entirely different matter to prove that Fermat's last theorem is true for all n. Nonetheless, the only cases that need be proved are when n=4 or n is odd prime, because any integer greater than two is divisible either by 4 or by an odd prime.
Fermat himself proved the case of n=4 with the method of infinite descent. He started with a more general equation, 4th power of x + 4th power of y = 2nd power of z. The solution of this equation would give a Pythagorean triangle with two sides that were themselves squares which can form another Pythagorean triangle with smaller nonzero sides. Continuing in this manner, the smallest possible nonzero number (x=1, y=1) also must be a solution, but it is not. Therefore, the initial assumption must be false, and HPD equation has no positive solution when n=4.
In the next 350 years, some great mathematicians succeeded in proving Fermat's last theorem in a few special cases. Table 1 lists the solvers of those special cases.

Table 1: Solver of special cases
Year Solver Exponent
1640s Pierre de Fermat n = 4
1750s Leonhard Euler 3
1820s Peter G Lejeune Dirichlet
Adrien-Marie Legendre
1850s Ernst E. Kummer n < 100
1993 Computer n < 4 million
With the help of computer, Fermat's last theorem is proved to be valid when n < 4,000,000. The chance to find a solution for HPD equation when n > 4 million is very small. It has twenty-six million zeros behind the decimal point. Nonetheless, the computer proof is not a valid mathematical reasoning; so Fermat's last theorem is still not proved in terms of mathematics.
On the mathematics front, two paths of significant progress on trying to prove Fermat's last theorem have opened up during the last 350 years. One path combines number theory with the theory of elliptic curve; the other combines number theory with Topology.
In 1840s, Gabriel Lame introduced a new concept -- algebraic numbers which are more general numbers than just whole numbers. In general, most algebraic numbers can be expressed as a product of primes in a unique way. By 1850s, Ernst E. Kummer modified and improved Lame's idea and proved that Fermat's last theorem is true for all n up to 100.
The further progress came from the modern approach to Diophantine equations -- the theory of elliptic curve, which is a perfect square equal to a cubic polynomial (y^2 = ax^3 + bx^2 + cx + d). In 1955, Taniyama made a conjecture -- that every elliptic curve is modular: the equation of the elliptic curve are divisible by a prime.
In 1980s, Gerhard Frey came up an idea to use the x^n and y^n of the HPD equation as perimeter to construct elliptic curves. So, if all elliptic curves must be modular (divisible by a prime), then HPD equation (associated with x^n, y^n) have positive integer solutions, and the Fermat's last theorem must be invalid. Thus, Frey's strategy provides a major machinery to test the validity of Fermat's last theorem in terms of elliptic curve theory and Taniyama conjecture.
In 1986, Kenneth A. Ribet proved that if the Taniyama conjecture is true, then Frey's elliptic curve can never exist. The task of proving Fermat's last theorem becomes either to prove that Taniyama conjecture is true or that Frey's elliptic curves cannot exist.
In 1993, Andrew Wiles announced that he had proved that a portion of the Taniyama conjecture (relevant to the Fermat's last theorem) is true.

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III: Revisit the Issues

Fermat came up his last theorem by generalizing Pythagorean equation to higher power (greater than 2) and restricting its solution to be positive integer in terms of Diophantine equation. So, Fermat's last theorem is really an issue of prime number. Thus, I will give a brief visit on the theory of prime.
Prime numbers have two personality -- A) chaotic and B) somewhat ordered and confined.
A) Its chaotic nature:
B) The orderliness of primes:
In 1850s, Pafnuti L. Tchebycheff also proved that there is always at least one prime between n and 2n - 2 when n>=3. Thus, the distribution of prime is, indeed, confined and bound although it is also very chaotic.
This paradoxical nature of prime (being both ordered and chaotic) is the heart of Fermat's Last Theorem. any approach (such as the Frey-Ribet-Wiles approach by using Taniyama conjecture on elliptic curve) trying to prove Fermat's last theorem without first to understand the meaning of this paradoxical nature of prime is doomed for failure. In fact, the entire number theory as it stands today will never be able to prove Fermat's last theorem because it conceives that naturals and irrationals are disjointed set, that is, the intersection set of naturals and irrationals is empty set.
In my book The Divine Constitution, I pointed out a paradox axiom -- every paradox always points out and leads to a higher truth. Thus, this paradoxical nature of primes must lead to a higher truth. Indeed, it does. Fermat's last theorem, in fact, points out that natural numbers are permanently entangled with (or confined to) the irrationals. But, what does this mean? And, how?

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IV: The Internal Structure of Geometric Point

In quantum gravity, there are three big problems. First, there is an important difference between the graviton and the photon, that is, the photon couples only to charged particles, but the graviton couples to all particles, including the graviton itself. This kind of self-entanglement can give rise to infinity. Second, the quantum vacuum has a nonzero energy. Since gravity is supposed to interact with every form of energy and should interact with this vacuum energy. Thus, a vacuum would have a weight. On the one hand, quantum vacuum does not have weight in the real world. On the other hand, this quantum vacuum energy causes many gravity theories to produce meaningless answers -- infinities. Third, all theories seemed to diverge to infinity when they regard the fundamental particles as mathematical points.
Without the ability to address the issues of self-entanglement and of quantum vacuum energy, many physicists rushed to tackle the point-particle issue. They stretched the mathematical point into a geometrical string -- the so-called Superstring theory.
Although the superstring theory insists that the mathematical (geometrical) point has an internal geometrical structure, it does not know what kind of internal structure a mathematical point has. In my Prequark Chromodynamics, I insist that the internal structure of a mathematical point is not a sphere nor anything else but a donut, which can be described with 7 colors (3 quark colors, 3 generation colors and one colorless color).
In fact, there are many clues about the internal structure of mathematical and geometrical point even without the modern physics such as superstring or my Prequark Chromodynamics. There are clues in Topology. When we make a map by using North pole as the center, the entire outer edge (either to be a rectangle of a circle) represents a SINGLE point (South pole), that is, the single point and the infinite number of points 9the outer edge of the map) is identical in Topology. In this case to Topology, don't you think that there are some internal structures in mathematical or geometric point?
In the physical world (in physics), there are some physical properties associated with each mathematical or geometrical point. The collection of these points is a physical field. When two points in the physical field collide (that is, r [the distance between the two points] becomes zero), most of the physical properties associated with these points diverge into infinity. In fact, in the physical world, zero (r=0) and infinity are indistinguishable in the case of point particle. The mathematical point (which contains two collided physical field points) has very rich internal structure which consists of both nothingness (0) and infinity.
In mathematics, there is a relationship between 0 and infinity on the one hand, that is, infinity equals one (1) over zero (0). On the other hand, the fact that 0 and infinity are indistinguishable can also be clearly understood even in mathematics. When n approaches to infinity, the sequence 1, 1/2, 1/3, ..., 1/n,... approaches to 0. There is no way to distinguish from infinity by this sequence. This sequence reaches infinity and zero at the same time. that is, infinity and zero resides in the same point!!
But, why do all mathematicians (from past to present) have no clue whatsoever on the issue of internal structure of mathematical point? There are three major fallacies in mathematics. First, that the single point can be stretched into infinite points (as a circle) in Topology is viewed as a mathematical trick (as only convenience for mathematicians), not as an essence of mathematics.
Second, by definition, mathematical and geometrical points do not possess any physical property. All the misfortunes in physics on the point particle issue are the misfortunes of physicists, and it has nothing to do with mathematics.
Third, the greatest fallacy of mathematics is the definitions of LIMIT and CONTINUITY in the modern mathematics. The definition of LIMIT artificially equates a POINT with a big interval defined by epsilon and delta.
A few hundred years ago, Descartes, Euler and many others believed mathematics to be the accurate description of real phenomena, and they regarded their work as the uncovering of the mathematical design of the universe. Today, almost all mathematicians believe that mathematics is no longer absolute but arise arbitrarily. Thus, to equate a point to a giant interval defined by epsilon is perfectly legitimate in the modern mathematics, but this notion inevitably leads mathematics to the path of failure. The modern definition of LIMIT and CONTINUITY in mathematics have not only prevented mathematics reaching Ultimate Reality but have caused many unsolvable problems, such as the Fermat's Last Theorem.
The concept of continuity has a very important physical meaning. A string AB is continuous between point A and B if a pull force is applied on A and B, and string AB remains to be a single string. Thus, continuity can be defined in terms of physics. In physics, a point C in string AB is continuous if C is in touch with its neighboring points, that is, point C has at least two or more touching points in terms of physical bonding force. But, this concept of touching point cannot be defined in modern mathematics.
In mathematics, function f is continuous on an open interval (a, b) if every point c between (a, b) is a limit point of a big interval defined by epsilon and if f(c) is also a limit point of a big interval defined by delta. With this definition, for point C to be continuous, it must overlap with its neighboring point with a giant interval (defined by two epsilons) which contains an infinite number of points. On the one hand, this definition of continuity in continuous function) must be permanently confined to and entangled with its neighboring points, that is, every mathematical point has a very rich internal structure. On the other hand, this definition prevents mathematics of ever knowing that rich internal structure. That is, the touching point can never be defined in mathematics under the current concept of continuity.
Fermat's last theorem is not an isolated mathematical curiosity. It not only lies at the heart of number theory but points out the final secret that every number has an internal structure -- the naturals are inseparable from the irrationals. But, what is this internal structure?
I must introduce a new kind of number -- the touching numbers. Let b>0 and b<1. The distance between b and 1 is r. When r-->0, b-->1. In traditional mathematics, b=1 when r=0. With the concept of touching number, when b touches 1, that is r=0, b does not equal to 1. The traditional law of identity (a-b=0, then a=b) can no longer be applied in this region (the internal structure of a single number). Every number n on number line has at least two touching numbers, touching from each side. In fact, there are infinite amount of number which touches the number n from each side, but they can all be represented with a colored number (or a colored set). Thus, for every n, there are at least three numbers, and they can be expressed as n, n) or (n. The distances, r1=[n, n)], r2=[n, (n] and r3=[n), (n] are all equal to 0. Traditionally, n, n) and (n are utterly indistinguishable. But, we can actually color code these three numbers; such as: n as red, n) as yellow, and (n as blue.

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V: Colored Numbers

Colored numbers are the result of the internal structure of mathematical point. Only with colored numbers does the internal structure of numbers become distinguishable. Since I discussed the concepts of colored numbers in details in my previous three books, I will only give a brief summary here.

  1. Every number has an infinitely long tail. But, there are three different types of tails. The tail of 1/3 is infinitely long but predictable. The tail of number Pi is infinitely long and ultimately unpredictable. The tail of square root 2 is more predictable than the tail of Pi but less than the tail of 1/3. I used three colors (c, p, +) to identify these three different types of tails. So, 1/3 can be written as .3c, square root 2 = 1.414p, and Pi = 3.14159+. C means countable, + means uncountable, p is pseudo-uncountable.
  2. Every tail has a ghost partner, that is, an infinity. C-tail corresponds to countable infinity, + tail to uncountable infinity, p-tail to pseudo-uncountable infinity. I used three colors {S(1), S(2), S(3)} to identify these three different types of infinities.
  3. Zero (the Nothingness) is colorless. So, the entire number system consists of 7 colors {0, c, p, +, S(1), S(2), S(3)}. The entire rational numbers (except 0) is c-colored. Square root of 3 is p-colored. Pi is +colored. In this new number system, infinities are also numbers, colored numbers to be exact. Only by including infinities as number, the number system can be complete.

In 1922, Louis J. Mordell used a different approach (different from the Frey-Ribet-Wiles path) to tackle the Fermat's last theorem. Instead of trying to prove or disprove that theorem, he asked a different question -- how many solutions a Diophantine equation might have. Some Diophantine equations have infinitely many solutions -- such as the Pythagorean equation. Some have none, such as HPD equation when n>=3 and smaller than 4 million. He tried to work out what distinguished these possibilities. He noticed that if we look at all solutions of such an equation in complex numbers, then those solutions form a topological surface which has a finite number of holes, like a donut. The equations with infinitely many whole number solutions always had no hole, or just one, when solved in complex numbers. The number of holes on the surface corresponding to HPD equation is (n-1)(n-2)/2, and for n>3, there are always at least two holes. Thus, Mordell made a conjecture -- that equations that give rise to surface with two or more holes have only finitely many integer solutions.
In 1983, Gerd Faltings proved Mordell's conjecture, Soon afterward D. R. Health-Brown modified Faltings' approach to prove that the proportion of integers n for which Fermat's last theorem is true approaches to 100 percent as n becomes very large. Since the values of n in this approach was not specified, the proof was considered still incomplete.
Nonetheless, this Mordell's approach is much superior to the Frey-Ribet-Wiles path. Mordell's approach connotes the validity of colored numbers.

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VI: A new Number Theory

Now, from the concepts of colored numbers and its associated torus (Topology), a new number theory can be constructed. Again, since I have described it in details in my books, I will only give a brief summary here.
In addition to the concept of colored numbers, I must introduce two more attributes of number -- softness and selfness. All finite number are somewhat rigid; 3 is always larger than 3-1. When the size of number increase, its rigidness reduces, such as the difference between three trillion and three trillion minus 1 becomes very insignificant. When the size of a number reaches infinity, it becomes utterly soft. We can squeeze infinitely more numbers into infinity without increasing its size. This ability to be itself is a very important attribute of infinities and numbers -- the SELF.

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The Final Proof of Fermat's Last Theorem

  1. 2 Pi is divisible by 2. So, there are infinite whole number solutions for the HPD equation when n=2.
  2. In order to have whole number solution for HPD equation when n >=3, 2Pi must be divisible by n per theorem 9. That is, Pi must be divisible by 2 (when n=4) or by all odd primes.
  3. Per definition 6, all primes are colorless colored numbers.
  4. Per theorem 10, Pi is + colored.
  5. Per theorem 8, Pi divided by any prime cannot be a colorless colored number (whole number).

Thus, Fermat's last theorem must be true for all n >=3.

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Veterans are four times more likely than other Americans to develop sleep apnea. Both PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder) and traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) have been found to increase the chances of a veteran developing some type of sleep disorder. Sleep’s great impact on health is well-documented. A sleep disorder often leads to other health problems in the future, like heart attacks or strokes. Therefore, it’s important for veterans who regularly have trouble sleeping to file a claim with the VA and receive the benefits they deserve.

Types of Sleep Disorders and Their Symptoms

  • Obstructive Sleep Apnea: This condition causes breathing to stop during sleep, either for a few seconds or several minutes. This causes fatigue, slow reflexes and eventually can impact the heart, causing arrythmia and even cardiac arrest.
  • Narcolepsy: Those suffering from this condition are extremely fatigued during daytime hours, no matter how many hours they slept the night before. The disorder causes abrupt daytime unconsciousness and cataplexy, an episodic loss of muscle function ranging from sagging facial muscles to physical collapse.

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Veteran sleep apnea and other sleep disorders is becoming more and more common? If you are a sufferer and the VA has denied your disability claim, please call (888) 883-2483 or contact us online today. Your consultation is free. We represent veterans across the United States.


St. Patrick's Regatta sailors overcome rough conditions

The sailors in the Geechee Sailing Club’s 34th annual St. Patrick’s Regatta dealt with extreme conditions by Savannah standards in which both the biggest and smallest boats came away winners.

The event began Saturday afternoon in rugged conditions with heavy rains and wind gusts near 30 knots. By Sunday afternoon’s conclusion, the weather had cleared, the sun came out and the temperature was approaching 80 and nearly perfect for sailing.

In the Non-Spinnaker class, Rich Moore in Yeah, Baby, a Santana 25, garnered the top spot by finishing third on Saturday and second on Sunday for five total points.

Lamb’s crew talked about how difficult the conditions on the Wilmington River were all weekend.

“When the rain came in (Saturday), there was so much wind, you couldn’t see the shore on either side of the river. It was just basically trying to keep the boat upright,” explained Erik Gottwald, who was driving.

Sunday’s race was made more challenging by gusty breezes and frequent wind shifts.

The St. Patrick’s Regatta pitted boats of different types against each other using the PHRF (Performance Handicap Racing Fleet) system. Each boat carries a rating that measures its expected time over the course of a mile.

At the end of the race, each boat’s actual time is adjusted by its PHRF rating. Although hull shape matters, the longer a boat’s waterline and the greater its sail size, the faster it will go.

Sunday began with torrential rains in Savannah. Moore, in the Non-Spinnaker class, feared he would not get a chance to get on the water.

“I woke up this morning, and I thought, ‘We’re not going to race today,’ ” Moore said. “Even on the way out, I said, ‘We’re not going to race.’ ”

Once on the course, Moore faced another obstacle in the way the course was laid out. Sunday’s course was set up with a very short windward leg, two lengthy reaches, and a short downwind finish.

On a windward leg, because sailboats cannot sail directly into the wind, the boats must point at an angle as close as they can and tack back and forth to reach their mark. More tacking would favor a smaller, nimbler boat like Moore’s. Reaches describe the point of sail when boats travel roughly perpendicular to the breeze.

“We’re at a major disadvantage when you take a long-hold race like that because there’s very little tacking,” Moore said afterward. “If I had to tack against all of those big boats, I’d whup them bad.”

The Yeah, Baby, a 1979 Santana quarter ton, is unusual. Moore claims that the company only built about 280. He found his, cleaned it up and loves it.

“I sorta bought that boat and fixed it up, put some stuff on it, and I’m having a lot of fun with it,” he said. “Put a good coat of paint on the bottom. I’ve had boats for 40 years, but that boat is the fastest darn boat I’ve ever had.”

Sun, 08/20/2017 - 8:57pm

NBA investigating Lakers for tampering


Verenestra is the fey deity of Female Faeries, Charm, and Beauty. Her symbol is a filigree-edged silver mirror. Verenestra is the daughter of Titania and one of the Inner Circle of the Seelie Court. She is prone to jealousy, and avoids other goddesses of beauty, love, and romance such as Hanali Celanil.

Verenestra appears as a demure, slim female faerie (either a sylph, dryad, or nymph, as she chooses) of unearthly, fey beauty. She is always barefooted, wearing only gossamer garments the size of handkerchiefs to provide her with a semblance of modesty. She stands four and a half feet in height.

Verenestra travels with the Seelie Court. She has her own bower there with silver birches, larches, plane trees, and fringes of willows, decorated with living silver filigree and jewels, with many mirrors inside for the goddess to gaze at herself in.

Verenestra is a fickle, vain creature, but wise enough to know that she must help protect all the faerie realms in order to ensure that her patron races remain safe. Therefore, she is loyal to the Seelie Court despite her flighty, inconstant nature. She may occasionally send avatars to the Prime Material Plane to abduct handsome males. Worshipers

Verenestra is revered primarily by dryads, nymphs, and sylphs.

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The UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution giving Sudan and South Sudan only 48 hours to halt hostilities or face potential sanctions.

With Russia and China joining the growing calls for a halt to the growing border conflict, the 15-member council on Wednesday backed up African Union efforts to halt violence and get peace negotiations started.

The resolution endorses an African Union plan aimed at getting the two countries to step back from the brink of war and resolve their differences.

South Sudan responded by announcing a committment to abide by the UN's resolution and Sudan said it seeks peace with its southern neighbour and hoped the South would respond positively to African Union and UN resolutions for ending hostilities.

Deng Alor Kuol, the South Sudan's Minister for Cabinet Affairs, said his government "formally appreciates
the adoption of the resolution and state our solemn commitment to comply with its mandated provisions."

"My government is already committed to the cessation of hostilities and resumption of negotiations under the auspices of the African Union," Kuol said

"The government of Sudan confirms her own strategic calls to have peace between the two states and it hopes the government of South Sudan gives a positive reaction to the African and UN Security Council resolutions," the foreign ministry's spokesman, Al-Obeid Meruh, said in a statement.

Sudan's UN envoy earlier said that there could only be peace between neighbouring states when the south ends its support for rebel groups operating in Sudan.

'A timetable'

Al Jazeera's Peter Greste, reporting from Juba, said the UN resolution sets up a specific "timetable" and lists the steps that must be taken by each side must take to avoid sanctions.

"[The resolution] is being welcomed buy the diplomats who have been watching it. They say it has the kind of teeth that might bring the two sides to the negotiating table," our correspondent said.

It condemned repeated cross-border violence between Sudan and South Sudan including troop movements, the South's seizure of the oil-rich town of Heglig and Sudan's aerial bombings in the South.

Though the resolution was unanimously voted in, both Russia and China had opposed talk of sanctions during negotiations on the resolution.

The US-drafted resolution calls on the neighbors, which separated last year, to "immediately cease all hostilities" and withdraw troops to their own territory.

The resolution calls for negotiations to be concluded within three months by August on critical issues including arrangements on oil and payments, the status of nationals living in the other country, resolution of disputed border areas, demarcation of the border, and agreement on the final status of
oil-rich Abyei, an outstanding issue from the 2005 peace agreement.

If these negotiations fail to achieve agreement on any issues within three months, the resolution asks UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, in consultation with the AU, to make detailed proposals on all outstanding issues within the following month.

Susan Rice, US ambassador to the UN, said Sudan and South Sudan have a long record of "promises made and promises broken."

But the neighboring countries have been drawing closer to all-out war in recent weeks over the unresolved issues of oil revenues and their disputed border, sparking alarm and condemnation from the international community.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies


IMIs 14th Annual Toner Printing Conference

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Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

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Improved print quality, expanding applications, higher resolutions, enhanced user expectations, etc. are all requiring improved toner based products to effectively compete in the digital printing marketplace. Additionally, the increased adoption of color digital printing, introduction of chemically produced toners, movement away from light lens based copiers, etc. are all placing new requirements on the toner industry. These improvements all require new or improved chemical raw material products to meet users' requirements as toner based imaging continues to evolve in a competitive marketplace.

This unique conference program, IMI's only program in 2011 focused on the toner and toner raw materials industry, offers a unique opportunity for raw materials suppliers, imaging chemicals manufacturers, hardware developers and end users to join together and obtain a comprehensive assessment of the toner based imaging chemicals industry. There simply is not a better or more cost effective place to obtain the latest information defining the future of toner and toner raw materials.

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