Muthos and Logos: Art as Origin

The Parthenon, Athens, Greece
The Parthenon, Athens, Greece

The role of myth in Classical Greece was an attempt to describe, in its explorations, the nature of reality, both physical and psychological, and while myth in drama and in story-telling, by the nature of its transmission, was a form of escapism for its audience, the use of myths by the time of Plato gained a moral force at odds with any such desire to escape from life itself. In this piece I wish to explore the symbiotic relationship between muthos and logos by examining three areas where myth and reason mixed: in origins, with authority, and in theories of the afterlife.

The Origin according to Art

Martin Heidegger, in an essay titled ‘The Origin of the Work of Art’, explained ‘truth’ has come down to us today from the Greek, alētheia, meaning ‘unconclealment’, he also said that ‘To be a work [of art] means to set up a world.’ What does he mean? He is saying that we know the ‘real world’ through art. Logos means word and words are the poet’s fundamental tool. In the hands of one ancient artist, Hesiod, we learn of the birth of the universe and earth herself, where the gods reside on Mount Olympus:

‘In truth, first of all came Expanse [chaos], and then
wide-bosomed Earth, seat ever safe of all
the immortals………

From Expanse came Darkness and black Night;
and from Night came Ether and Day
whom she conceived and bore after joining with Darkness in
(Hesiod, Theogony)
(trans. Barnes, 2001, pp.3-4)

In this truncated excerpt we come across what philosophers call a first principal, the coming into being of something from chaos. Further on in the Theogony Hesiod does something interesting: he personified natural and psychological phenomena with the gods themselves, for example, Oceanus for water, or Aphrodite for love. The beginnings of cosmology held a debt to the theological myths of the gods, this ursprung of reason came not from isolation but from the varied oral culture of mythology that allowed thinking itself to develop.

If one was to accept the eminent classical scholar, W.K.C. Guthrie’s claim that with the pre-Socratics Greece was to abandon the search for alētheia by the use of myth and to continue on using only rational thought (whatever that is) then we would be left with a sterile, if not entirely correct, vision of the past. Yet the Ionian philosophers, in the guise of Thales and Anaximander, took much from Hesiod’s style and combined their ‘rational thought’ with the need to explain or describe things. What did the function of myths have to do with this? In the first place myths explain, they give an aetiology, to describe the causation of things, and it was this cosmogony that Thales appropriated when he said that all things were of water (that is: water is the origin), we know this from Aristotle who said that Thales came to this way of thinking through looking at nature and seeing the preponderance of water, using the empirical method, possibly for the first time. It is not a long shot from that to think of the Oceanus myth. Anaximander, as Thales’ pupil, continued with his own arche, moving away from his teacher by claiming that it is the ‘boundless’, or apeiron, that is first principal, not something physical but, rather, metaphysical. With these two thinkers we are presented with the beginnings of scientific thought, bringing in the empirical method, the idea of substance, and the surprisingly liberating concept of metaphysics, and yet this ‘world of proto-science still seems imbued with the language of myth’. Far from trying to ‘escape’ reality the classical Greeks, like Heidegger’s artists, were making reality.

Fantastical myth still played a strong role in myths of origin, but in particular in the origins of mankind’s achievements thanks to Prometheus (see image below). We know that this god, cousin of Zeus, created man and brought fire to man, and that he was the protector of man, usually from Zeus’ wrath, according to Hesiod. While his battles with Zeus are interesting for their own sake, there is something else of more significance that is told in Prometheus’ myth, and Ovid lets us in on it: ‘Where other animals walk on all fours and look to the ground, man was given a towering head and commanded to stand erect….’. One can easily extrapolate a nascent evolutionary theory from this myth, especially the theory that the discovery of fire allowed humans to leave the trees and to kill and eat cooked meat, enabling the brain to grow and man to become more intelligent. Here we have a perfect example of myth preceding scientific theory.

Reaffirmation of Authority in Art

In the later Roman period we learnt that myth was used by authority for control and elevation. Preceding this in classical Athens through the character of Socrates and the words of Plato we are confronted with a questioning of, not just the myths and gods, but also of the nature of knowledge itself. We know that Socrates commits suicide by hemlock after being found guilty of ‘corrupting the youth’, and that the greatest knowledge he had was that he knew nothing at all – well, actually Plato never ascribes these last words to Socrates – but in the dialectical method (also known as the Socratic method) we learn that not everyone knows why they claim to know something, an activity that was seen as very threatening to authority: powerful people cannot bear to be ridiculed, or worse, to be seen as not wise. In the Apologia Plato sets out the case against Socrates and a defence of him, in the former that he denied the gods and was only interested in ‘what is beneath the earth and in the sky’, and in the latter that he did not deny the gods, he preformed religious practices, and claimed that any advice he gave was ‘at the prompting of the divine’. His bone of contention was that he found it hard to believe the stories people tell of the gods, not the existence of said divinities, but the power of mythology was so great that even the possibility of creating new gods was akin to declaring war on the established powers.

Socrates wasn’t beyond being ridiculed himself, Aristophanes’ Clouds made fun of the charge against Socrates that he was interested in what was in the sky: for Aristophanes Socrates walked on air.

Death’s Representation

If myths had an aetiological function then nothing needed explanation more than death and the afterlife. In book 11 of the Odyssey Homer tells us about the underworld and what happens to the dead. We are presented with ‘an ill-assorted lot’ containing all people in one place (Hades) including those who are being punished: we see Sisyphus rolling his rock, and Tantalus being tantalised, all the while Hades and Persephone preside over this world, seemingly unaffectedly (seen in an Apulian krator below). There is no judgement in this version of the afterlife, Minos as ruler of the Underworld adjudicates as one would on earth, except he is acting on behalf of disembodied spirits who ‘while alive, drift aimlessly and joylessly in the gloom; the light and hope and vigour of the upper world are gone.’

The Underworld, Apulian red-figure krater, Ca. 320 B.C.

It was the amoral nature of Homer’s representation of the Underworld that annoyed Plato, not that myths existed but that they were put to bad use, and ironically (considering Plato’s Apologia) corrupted the young and impressionable. While it could be argued that Homer’s amoral world-view is an attempt to ‘escape’ the world as we know it, with Plato we are at the dawn of morality, that ‘doing good’ is good for its own sake and is reward enough. Plato’s Republic is a dialogue on the ‘just’ state, on justice and ultimately on morality itself, but it is also about the way to this just state by the education of the populace. Following on from Socrates’ scepticism of the tales of the gods iterated above (though not of the gods), in the Republic we come to understand Plato’s dislike of Homer’s tales of the gods: that it shows them in a bad light, that even if it is true that the gods fought amongst themselves, it should not be common knowledge. The multiplicity of the myths and the chameleon nature of the gods (think of Zeus changing into an eagle to abduct Ganymede) did not fit with the stability that Plato wished for: his ‘theory of the forms’ was not just a metaphysical concept it was a contrast to the attempts by the artists to represent reality through their copies of nature. Only the Ideal, through philosophy, represented truth, the non-philosopher sees the real as though they had spent all of their time in a cave and were suddenly dragged out to face nature but were blinded by the sun (the sun represented the absolute Form), distorting what was seen.

It wasn’t telling myths that was wrong for Plato but what was told that was wrong. A Just state needed it’s citizens to fear the consequences of being bad, but equally to expect reward for being good: the Homeric Underworld gave no such guarantees, apart from lack of passion, everyone seemed as they were above ground. As such Plato created a myth of his own, The Myth of Er, to show how a myth can be utilised for the ‘good’ of the republic. These beginnings of morality can be seen in the contrast between the use of fate in mythology and Plato’s new conception of ‘choice’: man is not helpless before the gods but are responsible for their own actions. First of all the afterlife required judgement, the just directed down one path, the unjust to take another. Hades was split into two: a heaven and a hell, tyrants, no matter their outward appearance, would be judged as tyrants and would not ‘pass through’. While there is much more to this myth than I have presented here, the moral for Plato was that each person was to ‘find the man who will give us the knowledge and the ability to tell a good life from a bad one and always choose the better course so far as we can’. I can’t help feeling, though, that Plato was a philistine, a condition that defines those who moralise too much.

Far from trying to ‘escape’ from the realities of the world, muthos and logos are inextricably linked, the first gave space to the other, and they each could not exist alone. In myths of origin we confront the need to explain what is before us, the phenomena we experience enabled us to create our own world. And this creativity of logos led to the ability to question established norms, and incorporated new dialectics that were still influenced by the old way of telling stories. And the finality of death demanded description, both old and new, yet the language of myth still pervades, even to this day.

Aristotle, The Metaphysics, 1998, Hugh Lawson-Tancred (tr), Penguin Classics

Plato, The Republic, 1987, Desmond Lee (tr), Penguin Classics

Early Greek Philosophy, 2001, Jonathan Barnes (tr), Penguin Classics

Ovid, Metamorphoses, 2004, in Feeney, D (Intro) & Raeburn, D (tr) (eds), Penguin

Morford, M P O & Lenardon, R J, 2011, Classical Mythology (International 9th edn), Oxford University Press

Grimal, P: Kershaw, S (ed.) & Maxwell-Hyslop, A (tr) (eds), 1991, The Penguin Dictionary of Classical Mythology, London: Penguin

Martin Heidegger, Basic Writings, David Farrell Krell (ed), 2004, Routledge

W. K. C. Guthrie, A History of Greek Philosophy: I The earlier Presocratics and the Pythagoreans, 1997, Cambridge University Press

The Cambridge Companion to Socrates, Donald R. Morrison (ed), 2011, Cambridge University Press

Strength, Power and the Mind

Panathenaic prize amphora showing three runners. Athens, 333-332 BC

We know today’s analogy: Obsession with the body results in a small mind (and other things!). Based on this assumption it explains the phenomenon of “stupid sports people”. It is also a bastardisation of the original ideal at the origin of Western civilisation: healthy body and mind: the ancient Greeks believed passionately about this and many of their first philosophers were fit and active in body as well as in mind. But this process didn’t arrive at once, the faculties of the mind and body have to be nurtured and developed, body first, as that supports the brain, then, with sufficient physical development, the mind. Many of the ancient philosophers lived to old age, which, considering the times they were in and the equivalent state of technology they had, was a great testament to their ‘healthy body and mind’ lifestyles. Of course, the philosophy we know of theirs today was mostly recorded in their older years, and this is due to the natural progression of life, not by premeditation on their behalf.

Of course, not all sports people are stupid, that would be ridiculous, but is it the case that all politicians at the higher echelons of power are stupid? Let’s face it, the real reason for a state’s success or failure depends on the amount of power it has through its ‘physical’ attributes: this ability to ‘take things’ (or give things) is economic too. So it seems that the closer you get to this kind of power the more stupid you become – in a way similar to how difficult it is to think clearly while recovering from a vigorous bout of exercise, (well that’s my experience), today’s ‘leaders’ are increasingly showing this mental exhaustion as power approaches. I’m sure it’s always been the case in political (and business) circles – it was just easier to hide the delusion of competence back then.

Too Much Theory Not Enough Art

Too much art theory?
Too much art theory?
I was going to write about two contemporary exhibitions I had been to recently, The Social Lives of Objects and POI: Moving, Mapping, Memory from Castlefield Gallery and Cornerhouse respectively, I had made some notes and was ready to start writing, but I couldn’t do any: why? I was completely uninspired and underwhelmed by the two shows I had seen. This conclusion was initially hidden from me because I was caught up in the two exhibition’s theorising, walking around the shows with a mind full of the intentions of the artists, and worse, the expectations of the curators. My aesthetic values are clearly different from the artists on show because I found no beauty in these exhibitions, I found the experiences akin more to an educational seminar than an aesthetic experience, one shouldn’t have to think too much in order to appreciate, never mind enjoy, a piece of art. It seems that today’s art privileges theory over artistic craftsmanship.Yes, I am criticising the ‘artistic skills’ of these artists: one of the exhibitions resembled a car boot sale with random objects dotted about the place as though your grandparent’s house had been ransacked, indeed one of the exhibits consisted of an old Penguin book with the last page reconstructed from itself – trash. The other show was too earnest, trying to make the usual liberal political points, and for the second exhibition in a row the top floor gallery was given over (partially) to a animal den. Much of contemporary art is conceptual art now, the boundaries between the two are no more, and I’m sure its because of our modern sensibilities. As times pass humanity gets heavier with explanation, it occupies us more and our culture will reflect this fact.

And yet, for me, I find that the more I explain, look into, theorise, try to understand visual art, the further I find I am from the aesthetic experience. This, of course, was the first lesson I learnt in the Philosophical Aesthetics class I took when at university. There is always this tension between the theory and the art that comes from it, but a gallery should never make you feel like you are in a classroom.

Nietzsche, Plato and Christianity

Nietzsche said “Christianity is Platonism for the people”. He believed that Christianity had inherited the Platonic trait of privileging the Ideal over the real, to be against life itself. I think the connection between ancient thought and what can be loosely termed the history of modern societies is there, it is interesting to note that the Vatican owns some of the many pre-Socratic Greek fragments and the thought behind the interpretation (eisegesis) of the bible was heavily influence by the knowledge of the ancient Greeks. This is why there were power struggles over meaning (Copernicus, ect) and the Church held great power in part because of the ownership over the meaning of the ancient texts. ‘Reason’ allowed the likes of Copernicus to challenge this ‘meaning’, and eventually, new paradigms were set. Incidentally, for much of the last two thousand years ‘Reason’ was not necessarily a secular task only, Kant, as far as I know, was a committed believer in god, his attacks on specific arguments for God’s existence, were to “elucidate the sources of the dialectical errors, which he will expose in relation to the specific arguments for God’s existence”, clearing the ground for a better understanding of god.

Back to Nietzsche again, from Beyond Good and Evil: “What astonishes one about the religiosity of the ancient Greeks is the tremendous amount of gratitude that emanates from it – the kind of man who stands thus before nature and before life is a very noble one! – Later, when the rabble came to predominate in Greece [he means Plato and his school], fear also overran religion; and Christianity was preparing itself.”

History connects us all; there is no possibility of tabula rasa now, not even in pre-Socratic times, they were influenced by the East and Egypt in particular.


Non-commutative differential calculus and applications

Boris Tsygan  (Pensylvania State University)

As it is well known, all the classical constructions of differential calculus on an n-dimensional space can be carried out strictly in terms of the ring of smooth functions on this space. A question arises, what of these constructions can be generalized so that they would work for any associative ring instead of a ring of functions. The answer to this problem is what we call non commutative differential calculus, because its applications are interesting when the ring in question is non commutative. We will discuss these applications, mainly to quantum mechanics, partial differential equations, representation theory, topology
and symplectic geometry, as well as a surprising and non trivial relation to number theory.


Where in the World is Mrs. Waffenschmidt? #10

That traveling teacher is off again, and this time she's in a really cool place. The class reads through the clues found in the provided paragraph to determine her location. Where is she? Here's a clue: It was an ancient city that sat close to a volcano, which erupted and preserved everything in ash.

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10 World Top Telescope and Observatory

Two eyes are better than one.  Twin optical / infrared telescope, Gemini Observatory are separate, but together, they can access the entire sky.  Gemini South is located approximately 9000 meters in the Andes of Chile, Gemini North (pictured) is at the top of Mauna Kea, home to an international community of telescope peering into the night sky, through a very good atmosphere of Hawaii.

European Southern Observatory
Telescope with a length of 3.5 m, is the first telescope in the world that has a primary mirror that is controlled by computer.  Even amateurs now have the technology field.  Together with ESO telescopes in the Atacama Desert in Chile, also including an array of the Very Large Telescope (pictured), the main observatory in Europe.  ESO is also home to several millimeters in Europe Atacama Large / sub-millimeter Array, known as ALMA, a collaboration between North America with East Asia and Chile.  ALMA will be The Biggest Earth Observatory Radio Astronomy Observatory and the most advanced in the world.  Which brings us to the next higher Observatory.

National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO)
Some sites including the Green Bank Telescope Observatory, Very Large Array (pictured), the base set of a very large and the future of U.S. ALMA.  Recently, scientists have used the Green Bank data to find the frequency of molecules in interstellar space.

Chandra / Spitzer Space Telescopes
One of NASA's famous observatory (in addition to the Hubble Space Telescope) has provided a glimpse into the universe that can not be seen.  Elliptical orbit of the Chandra X-Ray Observatory, which took him away from Earth, providing a better view of the high-energy regions of space, such as supernovae.  Images from Chandra has helped scientists better understand and pulsar nebulae.

Kepler Space Telescopes
NASA's Kepler Telescope launched last month, and clean it this week, so it can begin to make observations.  One in France and one in America.

W.  M.  Keck Observatory
Keck's twin 10-meter, 8-story, 300-ton telescopes.  Each primary mirror consists of 36 hexagonal segments that work together as a single piece of glass - a revolutionary technique that enables the achievement of a large mirror.  They have helped scientists make some surprising discoveries: the existence of galaxies on the outskirts of the universe, studying supernovae to determine the rate of expansion of the universe, the nature of gamma-ray peak and, recently, planets around other stars.

Mount Wilson Observatory
From the donkey cart used to carry 60-inch mirror to the top of the mountain.  Mount Wilson is the evolution of modern observatories, and one of the most important place in scientific history.  George Ellery Hale's 60-inch, which is no longer used for research, this will be used to study the spectral classification of stars, which are the foundation of modern astronomy.  60-inch Hale Telescope is the largest in the world 100 years ago, but within 10 years, was replaced by 100-inch scope next.  Edwin Hubble discovered that the stains of the nebula, that the universe evolved, and that the speed commensurate with the expansion of the Big Bang or creation.  Mount Wilson Observatory becomes the primary observatory for 40 years.

Palomar Observatory
Palomar 200-inch telescope helped revolutionize modern astronomy - and modern baking.  The mirror makers spent nearly $ 1 million - dollars in 1934 - and still can not make a big enough mirror quartz.  George Ellery Hale, who led the creation of his Palomar Mt.  Wilson asked for 200-inch mirror made of a new blend called Pyrex glass.  Changes in temperature makes Pyrex expands and contracts less than ordinary glass, Pyrex glass, so are less prone to distortion problems.

Galileo's Telescope
Galileo Galilei did not invent the telescope, he might even not the first to use a telescope.  But a powerful telescope design allows him to see farther than others.  With a telescope 1609, he examined the moon, discovered four moons of Jupiter, watching a supernova, discovered sunspots and verify the phases of Venus.  He also condemned the heresy for advocating a heliocentric view of the universe.  One of two remaining Galileo telescope continues to display the exhibition this month for the first and only outside Italy, at the Franklin Institute in Philadelphia.

Hubble Space Telescope

In the eventful 18 years, the Hubble Space Telescope has lived up to its namesake, one of the greatest astronomers in history.  Examples of Hubble's discovery in the last 18 years: to determine the age of the universe, which verifies that the dark energy accelerating the expansion of the universe; take pictures of planets outside our solar system, and chemicals in their atmospheres.  Hubble Service Mission 4, part of the STS-125 shuttle mission scheduled for next month.  This will be the last man to visit the orbital observatory, if the STS-125 is successful, Hubble astronomers hope will last 10 years.
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Friday, January 29, 2016

Teori Pembentukan Tata Surya

Tata surya terbentuk tentu ada suatu hal yang mendasarinya. Berikut ini beberapa teori yang mendasari terbentuknya tata surya menurut para ahli.
1. Teori Nebula
Pada teori nebula, menyebutkan bahwa pembentukan tata surya awalnya adalah sebuah kabut raksasa. Kabut tersebut sebagian besar terbentuk dari senyawa nitrogen, unsur lain yang membentuknya adalah debu, es, dan gas. Adanya gaya gravitasi membuat kabut tersebut berputar dan menyusut sehingga kabut memanas dan berubah menjadi bintang raksasa. Bintang raksasa inilah yang disebut matahari. Matahari tersebut berputar semakin cepat sehingga membuat cincin gas dan es terlempar ke sekelilingnya. Kembali, adanya gaya gravitasi membuat gas memadat yang diikuti penurunan suhu sehingga membentuk planet dalam dan planet luar.
Laplace menyatakan bahwa bentuk orbit yang melingkar merupakan efek dari pembentukan planet-planet tersebut.
Untuk pertama kalinya teori nebula dikemukakan oleh Emanuel Swedenborg pada tahun (1688-1772), Immanuel Kant pada tahun 1734 menyempurkan teori tersebut yang kemudian  dikembangkan kembali oleh Pierre Marquis de Laplace pada tahun 1796.
Teori Pembentukan Tata Surya

31 Interesting Facts About the Solar System That May Not You Know!

We live in a world that is extraordinary, a small part of the whole universe which covers not measurable. On earth we live alone, people still often awestruck by the simple things are very likely not be nothing compared with the universe.

Starting from simple questions, like, "Did the universe always exist as we see now, or if he appears suddenly?" Make all knowledge or amazing facts about the universe that we now know to unfold.

Then, what are the facts about the universe that we may not know? Okay, consider the following article.

In the late 1920s, astronomer Edwin Hubble observed through a telescope that galaxies away from each other slid between each other with fantastic speed. This movement is not caused by a new force that drives them apart from each other, but they were "still moving" as a result of primordial explosion that originated from a single point of origin (big bang happened billions of years ago).
The universe does not have a fixed size, but can thrive.
Only one spacecraft to approach Mercury, the Mariner 10 in 1974 and 1975. Mariner 10, which mapped only about 40-50 percent of the planet's surface.
The Romans named the planet Mercury with the name of one of their gods, Mercury (also known as Hermes in Greek mythology and Nabu in Babylonian mythology). And in India, Mercury was named Budha, son of Chandra the moon.
Venus rotation direction opposite to the direction of rotation of the other planets. In addition, the period of rotation of Venus is longer than the period of the revolution around the sun.

The name of the planet Mars is named after the Roman god of war.
Pluto has now been reclassified in a new category of dwarf planet. So, if you are asked to mention the names of the planets in our solar system and mention Pluto as one of them, then you're right. But the statement that Pluto is a dwarf planet. Conversely, if a teacher or friend who called Pluto as an asteroid, then he is wrong.

When you see the Andromeda galaxy (a distance of 2.3 million light years), the light that you see take 2.3 million years to reach your eyes. Thus you see that the current galaxy 2.3 million years ago.
Light from the sun takes eight minutes to reach your eyes, so you see the sun as 8 minutes ago. If the sun exploded today, you will not know about it until 8 minutes later!
Earth is not really round! but actually is round oblate, ie slightly squashed at the poles and bulge out at the equator because of the rotation.
When Galileo saw Saturn through a telescope for the first time, he described the planet that has "ears". This picture does not change until 1655, Christian Huygens suggest a crazy theory that Saturn may have a huge ring around the planet.

If you can put Saturn in a big bathtub, it would float. This planet is smaller than water density.
One teaspoon full of Neutron star (fiction: Neutron stars are the main ingredients maker THOR hammer figure role in The Avengers) will have a weight of around 112 million tonnes.

Jupiter is heavier than the weight of all the other planets when summed.
On a clear night, the human eye can only see about 3,000 stars of about 300 billion stars in our galaxy alone, and as many as 100 billion galaxies in the universe.
The highest mountain in the solar system is Olympus Mons on Mars at an altitude of about 15 miles, three times the height of Mount Everest. It covers an area about half the size of Spain.
If the point size of the sun, the nearest star would be within 10 miles of that point.
Half a billion of the energy released by the sun reaches the earth.
Temperature on Venus is hot enough to melt lead.
If you could travel at the speed of light (186,000 miles per second), it took 100,000 years to traverse our galaxy from end to end!
Only one side of the face of the moon facing the Earth. Month rotation period is exactly the same as its orbital period.
Betelgeuse, the brightest star in the upper left shoulder of Orion, is so large that if it is placed in position where our sun is, it will swallow the Earth, Mars and Jupiter!
If you stand on the equator, you will rotate at a speed of about 1,000 mph along the Earth rotates, also speed of about 67,000 mph around the sun.
At the equator you will find 3% lighter than at the poles, because the centrifugal force of the earth's rotation
Earth's atmosphere proportionally thinner than the skin of an apple.
1 day on Mercury (the time it takes for it to spin round once) equals 59 Earth days. 1 In his (the time it takes to orbit the sun) is equal to 88 days of the earth. That means there are only less than 2 days in a year!
If the sun is about the size of a pinhead placed on Earth, you will not be safe even though it is within 90 miles of it!
It is estimated that the number of stars in the universe greater than the number of grains of sand on all the beaches in the world! On a clear night, we could see the equivalent of a handful of sand.
Every year the sun evaporate 100,000 cubic miles of water on earth (which weighs 400 trillion tons!)
Jupiter acts as a vacuum cleaner which is very large, interesting and absorbing comets and meteors. Some estimates say that without the gravitational influence of Jupiter amount large meteor hit the Earth would be 10,000 times more.
Saturn is not the only planet with rings of Neptune also has rings.


Wednesday, September 12, 2007

eyes searching in hope of
a wink, a faltering lip?
a face to be non-existent for the rest of time

written words greeted with silence
never to be seen by another's eyes
so they sit - hidden away forever
it's best that way, you know

to keep feelings bottled up inside
to keep emotion hidden from the world
when do you know if it's ever real
where is the hope that once seemed ever present

i'm losing at this game of life
batting .000 in a world full of failures
and yet they aren't seen as failures at .300
how odd the ways of man

i smile, and laugh, at my immaturity
but the laughter goes unnoticed, even by myself
rainfall makes more noise on a blanket of snow
than the echoes of my cachinnation


Jordan Sipes

Math Instructor

Jordan recently earned his B.S. in Applied Mathematics from San Diego State University. While attending SDSU he tutored and taught various levels of mathematics and after graduation continued as a tutor and helped run a math study hall at a local high school. Jordan believes anybody and everybody can be taught, it often just takes a unique approach. In his free time you’ll find Jordan reading, watching just about any movie, or at the beach with his friends.


Monday, 9 June 2014

Trees and googols at World Cup 2014

A new mathematical cocktail whose stars are the World Cup in Brazil, the different systems of competition, the number of Wedderburn-Etherington and tree topology.

The World Cup Brazil 2014 in MatifutbolThere’s a great commotion few days before the start of the Football World Cup Brazil 2014. The organizing committee has decided to introduce an amendment at the last minute.

They want to add more countries to t he 32 nationsalready qualified for the final tournament. There’re many national teams that have been left out of the championship.

Given the huge stir generated by this World Championship, and the disappointment of many countries for failing to qualify, World Cup organizers have decided to increase the number of participants.

The competition system initially established for the 32 countries was as follows: a first stage based on a league format with 8 groups of 4 countries, the first 2 teams of which qualify for next round.

The 16 teams qualified will meet on 3 knockout stages till the final, where the winner will take the World Cup.

Match plan 2014 World Championship

However, if they want to add more countries, and achieve a not over-extended championship, they must necessarily adopt a new competition format, discarding the initial leagues and performing a knockout format from the beginning.

Moreover, given the availability of the football stadiums and the logistical problems that may result from this modification, they have determined to bring the 64 matches originally listed with the old system down to 60 games.

Group of Math expertsThe Local Organizing Committee has called a meeting with several experts from the Department of Applied Mathematics of the Ministry of Education.

At this meeting, the Committee chairman exposes to the other attendees the couple of issues that arise:

- The first issue consists on to determine the maximum number of teams that can participate if a total of 60 matches are held. We want the highest number of countries to come, because, first, we will have more visits of tourists from the participating countries, and second, we will have more income from television rights of those who choose to watch it at home.

The Organizing Committee and mathematical experts discussing how to organize the World Cup

- The second one is to analyze how many different ways we can arrange the tournament with knockout matches.

- What do you mean exactly?

- I mean that the championship can be played in many ways. For example, we can establish that there are 8 seeded teams, and make the other countries compete until there're only 8 teams to meet them in round of 16. Thus, if we represent the matches to dispute as small green rectangular stadiums, and teams with a blueish soccer clothing, our competition diagram looks like this:

Scheme with 8 seeded teams

- Or we can choose only 4 seeded teams and the rest are eliminated until there're only 4 national teams to face them.

Scheme with 4 seeded teams

- Or we set just 1 seeded team (the host country, of course), and the rest are eliminated until there is only one to play the final with us. Anyway, all the variations you can think of.

Scheme with one only seeded team

- I understand. But... it won’t be possible... It's a lot of work... for so little time.

- I don’t want excuses. Come on, let's get to work, and we’ll meet here again tomorrow.

The head of the Applied Mathematics Department is very concerned about these questions. Can you help him?

The following day, the mathematical experts meet again the members of the Organizing Committee.

- We'll try to solve the first question. What do you think about it? What’s the maximum number of countries we can call if 60 matches are held?

- Well, I think the best will be to make a match plan, as in tennis tournaments. We’ll represent the final match with a small soccer field, and we’ll draw 2 lines from it, to the two teams that will play the match. We have 1 match.

Scheme of a championshipo with 2 teams

- Now we replace the shirts representing the teams with 2 pitches symbolizing the 2 semifinal matches. From each of them we draw another 2 lines, with the teams who play the matches. And if we add these 2 new matches to the one of the final, we already have 3 matches in total.

Scheme of a championship with 4 teams and 2 semifinals

- And we go on with the 4 quarter-final matches, the 8 round of 16 matches and the 16 round of 32 matches. We now have a total of 1+2+4+8+16 = 31 matches.

Scheme of a championship with 32 teams and a direct elimination system

- We still need 29 more games to complete the 60 matches we want to be played in the championship. So we can’t hold all the 32 matches of round of 64, since we would have a total of 31 + 32 = 63 games. You can count the soccer pitches in the scheme, to check it.

Scheme of a championship of 64 teams and a direct elimination system

- 3 matches are left over. So we remove 3 matches, and there’ll be 3 teams directly qualified for the round of 32.

Uncomplete round of 64, with 3 teams directly qualified for next round

- Now let's count the teams participating in the tournament: we must count all the shirts hanging like leaves at the ends of each branch.

- It's true, the diagram of the tournament looks like a tree. Well, after counting them, I get 61, that is, we can hold up to 61 countries, right?

- That's right, whenever the tournament is arranged with this competition scheme. But what about if we manage another distinct trees? If we want to have 8 top seeded teams, or if we want to have 4 seeded teams, always respecting the number of 60 games, the trees would be:

Competition scheme with 61 countries and 8 seeded teams

Competition scheme with 61 countries and 4 seeded teams

- What now? Will be there more or less countries this way? And what about if we think on other different trees?

- We can see that in these two examples we get also 61 countries, but I don't know what would happen to the rest of trees we can design...

- We’ll always get 61 countries, and we’ll use to a curious procedure to prove it.

- Let's think about the following: in all knockout games, there will always be a loser, that no longer will play more games. We just have to think that in 60 matches there will be 60 ‘losers’  countries, whom we have to add the final winner. Therefore, there will be 61 countries, regardless of the form the competition schedule takes.

-We can look at it in another way: if in every game we have represented a football pitch, we state that the team that wins the match and moves to the next phase occupies the darker half, while the loser is set in the lighter green part, we can see  that there are 60 clearer parts corresponding to the 60 eliminated teams, to which it must be added the team that wins the tournament, who has always been on the dark area of its matches. So we have a total of 61 teams. And it doesn’t matter the 'tree' of the competition that we form.

Competition scheme with 60 teams

- It's true. So we can say that the first question of finding the maximum number of countries is solved.

- Now let's study the second question: how many different ways we can arrange the tournament. In other words, we have to evaluate the distinct trees that we can design to organize the championship with 61 countries.

- Well, it doesn't seem very difficult. Let's start with a championship without teams. With zero participants, we could not organize any championship, right?

- Now consider a one-team championship. It's very easy. There’is only one way to do it: just give the trophy to the one team, and that's it.

Championship with one team

- With 2 teams, both would play the final. There would only be one way to organize it.

- Correct.

Championshipo with 2 teams

- With 3 teams, there’s also only one possible way to arrange the event: first we bring together 2 teams, and then the winner plays with the third team, right?

Championship scheme with 3 teams

- Indeed. But if instead of bringing together the first and the second team, we make the first and the third team face each other, or the second and the third, then we have two additional arrangements, right?

Two different ways of organising a championshipo with 3 teams

- No. It’s true that the teams would be different, but the pattern of competition would be the same: at first, 2 teams play a match, and the winner plays with the remaining team. For now, what we want is to find out how many distinct match schedules we can make and decide for one of them. Then we'll see how to put each of the national teams within that scheme, okay? So we’ll go on painting all teams with the same color.

- Perfect. Now we'll work with 4 teams. The most usual is to make them confront each other on 2 semifinals, and the winners play the final.

Competition scheme with 4 teams and 2 semifinals

- But there’s another way to deal with them: eliminating one by one.

Competition scheme with 4 teams and no semifinals

- So with 4 teams, we have 2 different trees. Let's see with 5 teams: there are 3 possible schemes.

Possible competition scheme for a tournament with 5 teamsPossible competition scheme for a tournament with 5 teamsPossible competition scheme for a tournament with 5 teams

- And with 6 teams, I can think of 6 possible ways.

Possible competition scheme for a tournament with 6 teamsPossible competition scheme for a tournament with 6 teamsPossible competition scheme for a tournament with 6 teams

- With 7 teams we can form 11 different trees. With 8 we build 23 trees, and with 9 we can design 46 trees. But it's increasingly difficult to draw the different options. I think this way we won't get anywhere...

- Maybe we should find a formula to calculate how many distinct trees can be formed with 61 competitors. To do this, we'll study the series we have so far, to see if we can deduce how it follows.

Possible different competition models, regarding on the number of participants

- It doesn’t seem that the numbers we’ve obtained obey any mathematical sequence. Maybe we should search on internet for a solution to our problem.

- Yes, but the first thing we have to do is to define exactly what we're looking for.

Trees on Wikipedia- Well, these trees we're drawing are called 'graphs' in mathematical terms. And as they have a hierarchical form, which simulates a tree (or a root), they’re also known by the name of ‘trees’ in Mathematics and Computer science.

- In addition, these trees are very special because from all of those little pitches (which we call nodes) representing the football matches, we start 2 lines (branches or children). There can’t be a game in which more than 2 teams meet, so we talk about ‘binary trees’. And no match can be played with only one team, so therefore, we say they’re  'strictly binary trees’.

- On the other hand, we said before that it doesn’t matter the order of the different branches, as we're looking at the structure of the tree, and it doesn't care who plays the matches. So we're talking about ‘strictly unordered binary trees’.

- We just have to use the internet browser, write 'how many strictly unordered binary trees can be formed', and wait for the results...

The mathematical experts and the Organising Committee are going to search on internet a solution for the problem

- Well, there aren’t many results. But I think none of them seems to fit what we're looking for. Perhaps we are not approaching the problem correctly.

- Maybe it's better to resume again the series of trees that we had previously calculated:

0 1 1 1 2 3 6 11 23 46 98

- And we introduce it on this very useful website, which recognizes all kinds of series from its terms:

OEIS. The On-Line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences

First 200 terms ot the series A001190 of Wedderburn-Etherington- Aha! Here we've got the solution: it’s series number A001190, called the Wedderburn-Etherington series. We can see that within the utilities described on the web, there’s the one concerned with our problem: the number of distinct ways of organizing a single-elimination tournament for n players (with the players name left blank), that's it, the amount of possible different schedules that can be set for a number n of participants.

- Now we just have to click the link where T. D. Noe calculates a table with the first 200 terms of the series, and pick the result for 61 teams:

- What a number! Let's put the commas, for to have an accurate idea of its magnitude.

- Over 844 trillion different trees! Even in the Amazon rainforest there aren’t so many trees!

Approximately Brazilian population in 2013- It looks like a pretty big number. And we said we wanted to study all the cases to see which system we adopt, right? I think we’ll have to work 24 hours a day.

- Well, let's think a bit. If one of us devotes 1 minute to each 'tree', and he/she doesn’t eat , sleep, nor rest, he/she needs a total of 160,617,610,995,447 years to finish the work.

- We should put to work on it all the Department.

- Nah, even if all Brazilians (over 201 million people), worked in this task it would take 7,989,625 years to complete it.

- Well, nowadays that almost everyone likes football, how about we ask the help of the entire world population?

World population

- In that case, it would take only 221,987 years to study for 1 minute each of the possible ways of organizing our 61-teams tournament.

- By the way, I assume you remember when I mentioned that we weren't interested in differentiating the various teams, and therefore we focused only on the structure of the championship.

Two different ways of organising a 3-teams championship

- Yes, but I didn’t quite understand why.

- Let’s revisit the issue for one moment. We have 61 teams, so we want to know the number of different ways we can sort them. In Mathematics, we talk about the permutations that can occur in a set of 61 elements.

- That’s right. And it’s easy to calculate. Any of the 61 national teams can be the first one to be chosen. For each one of them, we will pick another team among the remaining 60 teams. For each of these combinations of 2 teams, we have 59 teams to choose the third country. And so on.

- Therefore, the total number of permutations of the 61 countries will be:

61 · 60 · 59 · 58 · ..... · 3 · 2 ·1 = 61!

- Indeed, for brevity we use the expression 'factor of 61’, represented by the symbol of admiration. And if we calculate the product, we get the following result:

61! = 5.0758 · 10 83

- That’s a number five followed by 83 more figures. If you thought that the number of trees we saw before looked huge (8,4421 · 10 20), imagine how it will be this new number. And if we multiply the number of trees by the number of forms we can fit the 61 teams in them, we get a lovely number :

4.2850 · 10 104 = 42,850 · 10 100

- Forty-two thousand eight hundred and fifty googols of different ways of organizing our championship! We must remember that a googol is greater than the number of hydrogen atoms in the known universe...

Microwave background radiation of the Universe

- Uff . Then, I think we’d better use the traditional method: 29 matches of round of 64, freeing three countries in this first round, and full direct eliminatory rounds since round of 32.

- Brazil, and two others.

- Of course!

- Come on then! Let’s decide now which new countries we’re going to invite for completing the schedule of 61 teams. And we should think of organising something special for the opening ceremony: What about giving away some balls?

- Right. But first of all, if anyone is interested in this topic of tree structures, here you have some links to deepen on it: Tree (graph theory)Generation of Rooted Trees and Free TreesBinary Tree.

- And here you have other links, if you liked the story and want to share it with your friends.

- Goodbye. And may the best win!

Si te gustó esta historia, puedes votar por ella en menéame y divoblogger. Muchas gracias. Si te gustó esta historia, puedes votar por ella en menéame y divoblogger. Muchas gracias.


Tag Archive for Donald Trump

Oh, The Irony

Personnel Is Policy: Who Donald Trump Could Appoint To The Fed

Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors

Top Five Monetary Policy Issues To Watch In 2017

With a new year come new opportunities as well as new issues to take into consideration. Here are the five most important issues to keep an eye on in 2017.

1. Trump Presidency

The most important issue facing monetary policy, at least in the United States, will be the incoming Trump Administration. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors is currently operating with two vacancies and has been for quite a while. With majorities in both the House and Senate, it is highly likely that President Trump will be able to successfully nominate two candidates to the Board. Depending on who he picks, that could put additional pressure on Chairman Janet Yellen to continue to raise the federal funds target rate throughout 2017.

2. Ongoing Weakness in Europe

The PIIGS are returning. The Greek debt crisis is still unresolved, the Italian banking sector is weakening with Monte dei Paschi likely facing a bailout this year, and Portugal is showing signs of a weakening banking sector. Add to that the difficulties continuing to face Deutsche Bank and 2017 could be a perfect storm facing the Eurozone banking sector. The big question then would be to what extent bank failures and bailouts in Europe would cause spillover effects in the United States and worldwide.

3. China Is Still a Wild Card

While the yuan continues its march towards becoming a global reserve currency, the Chinese economy faces continued difficulty and slowing growth. Private sector debt loads are high, the insurance and banking sectors are built on matchsticks, and the government is beginning to sell off some of its foreign exchange reserves to defend the yuan. 2017 could be a very interesting year for China, and for the rest of us if a Chinese collapse spills over to the West.

4. The Relentless War on Cash

As India’s demonetization demonstrated, the war on cash is ramping up around the world. While there likely won’t be major moves towards eliminating high-denomination bills in the United States or Europe, there will be continued actions that chip away at the use of cash and the financial privacy that cash affords. Expect more legislative and regulatory action against cash transactions under the guise of fighting against money laundering, terrorist financing, and tax havens as governments continue to try to squeeze as much money as possible from taxpayers.

5. A Coming Financial Crisis

The most important thing to watch for in 2017 is the possibility of another financial crisis. With the trillions of dollars of new money pushed into the financial system over the past several years by central banks around the world, financial bubbles growing, popping, and leading to financial crises are inevitable. Contrary to the thinking of Ben Bernanke and others of his mindset, it doesn’t take a central bank actively removing liquidity from the financial system to pop bubbles or create financial crises. All that is required is for the central bank to stop or slow its monetary easing and the effects of the newly created money will soon be evident.

As the reality sets in that massive amounts of resources have been malinvested in unproductive sectors of the economy, the bubbles that were blown will inevitably burst. While monetary policies around the world remain historically loose, the Federal Reserve’s raising of its federal funds rate target has been accompanied by talk in other countries about raising interest rates. Given the anemic recovery in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and continued low interest rates, central banks don’t have much room to maneuver when the next crisis hits. It’s always tricky trying to predict when a crisis will occur, but given economic data in various sectors that show similarities to the last crisis, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for 2017 to be the year of the next crisis.

Takeaways From The FOMC Meeting

To Really “Make America Great Again,” End the Fed!

By Ron Paul

Some Fed defenders claim that inflation doesn’t negatively affect anyone’s standard of living because price increases are matched by wage increases. This claim ignores the fact that the effects of the Fed’s actions depend on how individuals react to the Fed’s actions.

Historically, an increase in money supply does not just cause a general rise in prices. It also causes money to flow into specific sectors, creating a bubble that provides investors and workers in those areas a (temporary) increase in their incomes. Meanwhile, workers and investors in sectors not affected by the Fed-generated boom will still see a decline in their purchasing power and thus their standard of living.

Adoption of a “rules-based” monetary policy will not eliminate the problem of Fed-created bubbles, booms, and busts, since Congress cannot set a rule dictating how individuals react to Fed policies. The only way to eliminate the boom-and-bust cycle is to remove the Fed’s power to increase the money supply and manipulate interest rates.

Because the Fed’s actions distort the view of economic conditions among investors, businesses, and workers, the booms created by the Fed are unsustainable. Eventually reality sets in, the bubble bursts, and the economy falls into recession.

When the crash occurs the best thing for Congress and the Fed to do is allow the recession to run its course. Recessions are the economy’s way of cleaning out the Fed-created distortions. Of course, Congress and the Fed refuse to do that. Instead, they begin the whole business cycle over again with another round of money creation, increased stimulus spending, and corporate bailouts.

Some progressive economists acknowledge how the Fed causes economic inequality and harms average Americans. These progressives support perpetual low interest rates and money creation. These so-called working class champions ignore how the very act of money creation causes economic inequality. Longer periods of easy money also mean longer, and more painful, recessions.

President-elect Donald Trump has acknowledged that, while his business benefits from lower interest rates, the Fed’s policies hurt most Americans. During the campaign, Mr. Trump also promised to make audit the fed part of his first 100 days agenda. Unfortunately, since the election, President-elect Trump has not made any statements regarding monetary policy or the audit the fed legislation. Those of us who understand that changing monetary policy is the key to making America great again must redouble our efforts to convince Congress and the new president to audit, then end, the Federal Reserve.

This article originally appeared on the website of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity.

Is Janet Yellen Helping the Democrats Win the Presidency?

Presidential candidate Donald Trump last week claimed that the Federal Reserve was keeping interest rates low to help President Obama, since Obama didn’t want to leave office during a recession. Is there any truth to that? Well, maybe. Remember that Arthur Burns was once asked why, after helping Richard Nixon win re-election in 1972 by keeping interest rates low, he didn’t help Gerald Ford in 1976. The answer: Ford didn’t ask. So has Obama asked Janet Yellen to keep interest rates low so that he doesn’t leave office under a cloud?


Month: March 2016

The welfare conundrum

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This article first appeared in my weekly column with the Business Daily on March 28, 2016

As African economies continue to grow and become richer than they have been in modern history, the question of government providing social security or welfare nets for the especially poor and marginalised becomes important. Poverty levels are still dire on the continent; the number of Africans living in extreme poverty, defined as living on $1.25 or less a day, stood at 414 million people in 2010 or 48.5 percent of the African population according to the World Bank.

These high levels of problems pose several problems with regards to the continent’s development. The most obvious is that those living in extreme poverty also tend to be malnourished and are unable to access and afford medical care, education as well as basics such as water and adequate shelter. As a result not only are they unable to live productive and dignified lives, their circumstances make it difficult them to be productive members of society as they are saddled with chronic, debilitating (but often treatable) illnesses, poor living conditions, illiteracy and the lack of opportunity to improve their lot. Clearly those living in extreme poverty need far more support than they are currently getting and frankly the issue of providing more support to this demographic group is one that ought to be front and centre for African governments not only because it is the right thing to do, but is also the smart thing to do. (source:

The consequence of on-going, chronic poverty on the continent creates an additional dynamic; very high levels of dependency on the middle class African. Ask any African in the middle class and I can assure you they will tell you they support friends or family members in paying schools fees, medical bills, funeral costs and monthly stipends for day to day living. Even those who are not among the extreme poor, those who have even attained university degrees for example, are often unemployed and the high levels of unemployment means that otherwise able and capable Africans are relegated to relying on monthly stipends from friends and families. These high levels of poverty and dependency translate into low lived disposable income and savings on the continent. Middle class Africans cannot and do not save sufficiently because they ARE the social security net. They are the unemployment bureau. As a result many Africans do not save adequately which negatively informs economic growth.

There is however, an interesting consequence to Africans relying on each other to the extent on which they do. It creates, amplifies and spreads social capital. Social capital, which can be defined as the networks of relationships among people who live and work in a particular society that often enable society to function more effectively than it otherwise would, is abundant in Africa. The extent to which Africans have to trust friends and family, the levels of generosity in many Africans who give to friends and family even though they too are struggling, is precious social capital. Would Africa lose this social capital if government stepped in with a robust welfare net? Would social capital be eroded where, instead of giving your cousin USD 100 to get through the month, you told him to go and stand in line at the unemployment bureau? Would the generosity of buying your elderly aunt a bale of rice every month disappear if she went to an impersonal government agency and got food stamps instead?

In fact it is an interesting question to ponder as to the extent to which government funded welfare nets contributed to the erosion of social capital in developed economies. Of course there are cultural realities that have led to more individualistic societies in developed economies but perhaps impersonal government agencies offering social services means there is no real need for citizens to take care of distant relatives and friends.

I am not suggesting that African governments use such theorising to fail to provide welfare services for their citizens; it is their duty to do so. But the conundrum for Africa will be how to retain high levels of social capital on the continent even if or when governments step in with robust welfare services.

Anzetse Were is a development economist;

How important are services to economic growth?

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This article first appeared in my weekly column with the Business Daily on March 21, 2016

A report by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) analyses four services sectors in Kenya to determine the role of services in economic growth. The four sectors analysed are the financial sector, IT services, transport services and tourism services.  The report argues that services are becoming increasingly important, even for non-industrialised countries such as Kenya, as they have a direct contribution to GDP, exports and employment.

Indeed according to the report, services account for 50.7% of the share of GDP; a fact with which the World Bank agrees. Kenya has already become a major exporter of services in areas such as transport services, financial services and, less significantly, ICT. In terms of exports, the export of services from Kenya nearly tripled from $1.9 billion in 2005 to $4.9 billion in 2012; far more than the exports of goods. The ODI report goes on to state that ICT and financial services in particular makes companies in other sectors more productive, help develop value chains and safeguard jobs, while tourism creates numerous jobs within suppliers. Further, services have an important role to play in the ‘servicification’ of manufacturing. Indeed the World Bank survey made the point that in Kenya, services  constitute at least 62% of the cost of manufactured goods illustrating the extent to which manufacturing relies on services.

The position ODI takes goes contrary to dogma in economic theory which argues that the most effective path to development is linear with a progression from agriculture to manufacturing and finally into services. Yet here is Kenya, a non-industrialised economy, with services as the engine of economic growth.

Given this scenario, the questions to ask include: what are the implications of a services-led economy in the context of a non-industrialised county? Is a service-driven economy sustainable in the long term? Does a preponderance of services have a negative effect on the development of agriculture and manufacturing?

Well, the report acknowledges that there are weaknesses in the service-driven model, especially in non- industrialised countries. The dominance on services means that it pulls labour in from the other sectors such as manufacturing. This could result in the exacerbation of deindustrialisation as manufactured jobs are replaced by low-productivity services jobs.  This is a key concern for Kenya which has a significant informal economy, most of which is not very productive and in which services are a notable constituent. Is Kenya facing a scenario where labour is being pulled into services from other sectors, not into high productivity services which are typically in the context of formal employment, but rather into low productivity informal employment in services?

Further there are questions as to whether the dominance of services in Kenya will lead to skills shortages in agriculture and manufacturing. The report rightly makes the point that there is a risk emerging where the development of skills for the service sector will preponderate, perhaps to the detriment of skills development in other sectors. More and more young Kenyans will opt to train to become bankers and HR specialists because it will be easier to find jobs in those areas of speciality than it would be if they had trained as engineers and scientists. What does this bode for the future of the country?

The final risk of service-driven growth is that, as ODI point out, too much export-oriented services have opportunity costs. It could lead to Dutch disease effects where the shilling appreciates thereby damaging the manufacturing industry as locally produced goods become expensive and uncompetitive due to a strong shilling.

In terms of the way forward, Kenya should continue to reap the benefits of service-driven growth but go through a deliberate process of rebalancing where highly productive agriculture and manufacturing play a stronger role. Further, there is a need to ensure that as long as services preponderate, it is associated with noteable job creation and secondary effects that benefit the economy as whole.

 Anzetse Were is a development economist;

The Kenyan economy continues to exhibit key weaknesses that must be addressed

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This article first appeared in my column with the Business Daily on March 13, 2016

The first is that economic growth in Kenya is volatile, non-inclusive and marked by stagnation in agriculture and industry. In terms of volatility Kenya’s growth has been volatile since independence and domestic shocks such as political instability (especially during election years) affect GDP growth more than external ones.

The second point was that growth is not inclusive and the country continues to register high poverty levels, the estimates of which sit between 36-42% in 2016. Further, job creation has been marginal and slow, clearly only able to absorb a fraction of the working age population that enter the labour market each year. Further, of the jobs created, the vast majority have been informal jobs.

Another important point made by Sanghi was that economic growth in Kenya has been led by services which has been resilient with clear stagnation in agriculture and manufacturing.  Services exports are catching up with goods exports and this is partly because the sector is less dependent on raw materials and not truly affected by changes in commodity prices. In terms of agriculture, the main factors informing the stagnation include over-involvement of government in maize and sugar markets which keep prices high. In terms of manufacturing, it has marginal contribution to GDP, and Kenya has dropped 8 places in the rank of economic complexity of goods produced by the sector; in fact Kenya’s top exports are among the least complex. Sanghi also mentioned that achieving the Vision 2030 GDP growth rate target of 7% has thus far been elusive with the country reaching 7% only four times since independence. In order for Kenya to grow more robustly and with less volatility, both savings and productivity have to increase, the performance of both manufacturing and agriculture need to improve, and public investment management by government has to improve.

How feasible is this? Well with regard to savings numerous factors negatively inform Kenyan saving habits among which is the reality that there is no real social security net in Kenya. Yes government has a cash transfer system for the very vulnerable and poor but the lived reality for most Kenyans is that they cannot usually rely on government when they fall ill or lose a job. As a result, middle income pockets of Kenyans are under immense pressure for it is the middle and upper class that finance costs such as school fees, hospital bills and funerals for friends and relatives. Coupled with high dependency ratios linked to high levels of unemployment and underemployment, Kenya’s middle class has limited lived disposable income which of course makes saving very difficult.  I have thus long held the view that the hype about the spending power of the African middle class is Panglossian.

In terms of productivity, the report itself makes the point that levels of productivity vary greatly between sectors and within sectors. Further, most Kenyans are employed in the informal sector which is characterised by low productivity due to a myriad of factors such as poor management skills, poor education levels and the lack of access to finance, technology and innovations. Therefore, the question on which government ought to be focussed is how to increase productivity, particularly in the informal sector. This is not necessarily synonymous with pushing for the formalisation of the informal sector but rather, supporting Kenyans trapped in the primarily low income informal sector by skilling up the population in informal labour, developing apprenticeship programs and loosening finance into the sector.

Finally, public investment must improve with a preponderance of development rather than recurrent expenditure. Public investment strategies must be devoid of corruption in order to ensure government spending is strategic and effective.

Anzetse Were is a development economist;

How Africa can benefit from China’s slowdown and reorientation

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This article first appeared in my weekly column with the Business Daily on March 6, 2016.

An analyst with the Brookings Institution made an important point during a podcast recently; China will shed 85 million jobs at the bottom end of the manufacturing sector between now and 2030. So naturally the question becomes: where will they go? The analyst made the point that at the moment most of the jobs are being absorbed by China’s neighbours. But a more important question for Africa is: how can the continent poise itself to be a key absorber of those jobs?

Before answering that question, key details of the shedding of jobs in manufacturing by China need to be more intimately understood. There are two key drivers that are pushing jobs out of manufacturing in China; the first is the general slowdown of China. China has been slowing and growth in 2015 was the slowest in 25 years. Part of the consequences of this slowdown is the shutdown of numerous factories in textile, machine tool and chemicals industries. The boom China enjoyed for decades has created factory overcapacity. Combined with slowing demand in global markets China’s manufacturing sector is struggling. The second factor that is informing the migration of jobs from China is that the Chinese economy is going through a fundamental reorientation where services and household consumption fuel economic growth rather than the investment and industry. China is shifting from being the ‘world’s factory’ with an aggressive export orientation strategy to one led by consumption and services.

The scale of this reorientation is made clear when one considers that China’s growth in the past 15 years or so has been driven by exports and exports account for about 20% to 30% of China’s economic growth. The Chinese government has long sought to encourage this reorientation and indeed, in 2015 the service industries absorbed some job losses from manufacturing. Perhaps another factor informing the reorientation is the reality that China will soon face labour shortages and coupled with rising wages, export driven growth will be difficult.

This scenario should be good news for Africa, a continent that has yet to effectively industrialise. Indeed, many African countries are going through premature deindustrialisation driven by several factors the most salient of which is the lack of robust industrial policy by African governments. As it stands, it seems likely that what will inform African economic growth will shift from agriculture straight into the services sector and bypass industry altogether. At the moment the African economy is not leveraging industry to drive growth. This is a concern for the continent as industry is an important and large employer not only for the manufacture of goods consumed locally, but global markets as well. Through encouraging manufacturing and industry the continent can make a dent in the poverty problem as millions are absorbed in waged employment.

So there is no better time than now for Africa to finally get serious about industrialisation and absorb some of the 85 million jobs in low end manufacturing migrating out of China. What is required for this to happen? Four elements; the first is aggressive, well thought out and strategic industrial policy formulation and implementation by African governments.

The other three, as the Brooking analyst stated, are competition, clustering and management. Africa has to deliberately encourage the creation of a competitive manufacturing sector to create strong businesses that can survive domestic and global economic shocks. Clustering is also important because analysts have observed that businesses are more productive when they are located next to businesses that engage in similar activity. This has been encouraged, to a certain extent, through the creation of Special Economic Zones etc., but more research has to be done to determine the specific type of clustering that can facilitate robust African industrialisation. The final factor is effective management; poorly managed companies do not stand of chance of surviving in a global economic context that is difficult. So the time is now for Africa to lay the ground work for industrialisation so that when the global economy eventually recovers, the continent will be well poised to reap the dividends of industrialisation.

Anzetse Were is a development economist;


Tsurezure Children – 12 (Fin)

Tsurezure Children – 11

Tsurezure Children – 10

Tsurezure Children – 09

Tsurezure Children – 08

Tsuki ga Kirei – 11

Now he just needs to pass that goddamn exam!

WWW.Working!! – 05

WWW.Working!! – 04

WWW.Working!! – 03

WWW.Working!! – 02

Netoge no Yome wa Onnanoko ja Nai to Omotta? – 06

Ore Monogatari!! – 17

With Takeo and Rinko’s relationship secure (as if there was going to be any doubt) after the Mariya Incursion, and Christmas approaching, Rinko asks Takeo if it would be okay to celebrate with her friends and his friends, and he’s find with it. After all, they’re on cloud nine, and they’re united in their desire to spread the love and happiness; paying it forward, if you will. And with one of each of their friends, Nanako and Kurihara, at the dating ten-yard line, they want to do everything they can to help.

They end up doing just that…and it’s just too much. Combined with their own usual lovey-dovey behavior towards each other, Rinko and Takeo carefully set everything up so Nanako and Kurihara are together, and it puts a lot of pressure on both of them. Kurihara deals with that pressure by doing a lot of nervous laughing and joking, while Nanako seems to coil up into a ball of irritation, not to mention confusion over Kurihara’s words and gestures and the meaning behind them.

She finally just leaves the karaoke booth, and as Rinko chases after her, a trio of roughs start bothering them. Kurihara does the practical thing: when he sees what happens, he runs off to get Takeo (who intimidated these same roughs in the cold open without even trying or, indeed, knowing they existed). But that makes Nanako even madder; why couldn’t he rescue her himself? She continues fleeing, and when Rinko tries to follow, she snaps at her that not everyone can be like her and Takeo.

It’s a bit harsh, but it’s also true, and Takeo and Rinko know it. They came together naturally without overt outside assistance (they both recall Suna simply sitting back and quietly supporting/rooting for them without getting too hands-on. Yet again, watching a secondary relationship in the making helps this couple grow.

Kurihara decides to be a man and make up for his misstep with the roughs by performing a feat of manliness: climbing the giant Christmas tree to the top to grab an ornament that, it is said, will help you get the person you like to go out with you. Obviously there’s no real power in the thing; it’s just a totem, but the gesture of getting it (as Takeo spots and ultimately catches Kurihara when he falls) and the feelings behind it are what move Nanako, who returns when Rinko tells her what Kurihara’s doing. The two have a very public mutual confession, to the delight of all around them, especially Takeo and Rinko. It happened, without them having to push too hard, or at all. They just had to let it.

The aftermath to this is fantastic, with Kurihara and Nanako starting to act totally differently, and just as lovey-dovey as Nanako poo-pooed before her own relationship bloomed. Indeed, the lovebirds were holding hands before they were a couple, and literally hours after they became one, already got their first kiss out of the way.

That gets Rinko feeling down, and all of a sudden the tables are turned as now it’s Nanako who will offer advice—but hopefully not do too much—to see to it Rinko gets her first kiss from Takeo. And just like that, we have a fun new couple different from the main one, whose portrait was very quickly and efficiently painted this week. The love is spreading. Soon no one will be safe.

Ore Monogatari!! – 16

—”I wonder if I can like someone again.”
—”I’m sure you can.”
—”I’m sick of this! I want to now! But I can’t right now!”

That exchange between a fiercely honest, freshly-heartbroken Saijou Mariya and a savvy, supportive, tissue-providing Suna, says it all: Falling for someone who’s already firmly in love with someone else SUCKS. But it’s also a near-universal feeling we all have at some point in our lives. Even “Nature Is My Master” Takeo felt that way, when he thought Rinko liked Suna and not him.

As such, it’s a near-ubiquitous theme in romance anime. But rarely have I seen it so beautifully—and efficiently!—handled than these last two episodes. Saijou’s arc went by breathlessly quickly, yet still allowed us to get lost in it, in her head, and in all those swirling emotions people in her situation tend to have.

When she added “…as a person” to her confession to Takeo last week, I knew she actually liked him as a man, you knew she actually liked Takeo as a man, and after a couple periods of class, Suna knew she actually liked Takeo as a man. But Takeo? Forget it. In exchange for all his wonderful qualities, he’s an appallingly oblivious fellow, and that’s okay; I don’t need a perfect protagonist.

But more to the point, he simply trusts Saijou’s words as she spoke them, because he has no reason he knows of not to. He’s convinced he’s not popular with girls…and because neither Ai nor Saijou confessed their love, he has no reason to doubt that assessment of himself, either.

Similarly, Rinko trusts Saijou, and even decides to cultivate a kind of friendship with her, as they find it easy to talk to each other. Rinko is worried about other girls falling for Takeo, but not Saijou, because she said she likes him as a PERSON. That’s enough for Takeo, and it’s enough for Rinko, and neither will be hurt by Saijou continuing this charade indefinitely.

No, the person who will end up hurt is Saijou herself. When Suna approaches her, she expects to be castigated and comes clean to him: “Yes, I know I’m a cheat, and I’m lying about the extent of my feelings. So what?” She knows the answer: because she’ll never be happy with things like this. At the end of the day, she’s a good person, and isn’t going to try to break anyone up. To her surprise, Suna isn’t concerned with her actions thus far, but rather the emotional toll they’re having on her. He…he cares about her! AS A PERSON!!

Thanks to Suna, Saijou decides to nip things in the bud. The limbo she’s in is untenable; she has to be honest about her feelings, because Takeo and Rinko will never accuse her of being dishonest. The scene where she finds Takeo alone in the dark classroom, which then fills with gorgeous golden light, is as good a visual metaphor for a weight being lifted as one can ask for. It’s also mighty purty.

Takeo briefly sports an appropriately stunned look, followed by a quick and categorical rejection. But he’s not saying no because he already has a girlfriend; he’s saying it because he loves Rinko with all his heart, for any, all, and no reasons at all. He’s oblivious about a lot of things, but his heart never lets him doubt his love for Rinko for a minute.

Saijou tells Takeo she wasn’t lying when she said she liked him as a person too, and is able to withdraw with dignity, but once she hits the bench outside, the tears come hard and fast, so it’s good Suna’s there with two(!) boxes of Kleenex to help her through this trying but ultimately necessary time. She fell for the wrong person, but it will pass, and she’ll fall for someone else eventually. Hopefully Suna, AMIRITE!?!

As for Takeo, the sudden realization that there are girls besides Rinko who do like him, make him look upon his constant protestations to the contrary with contempt. All this time he was telling Rinko something he believed was true, but wasn’t. So as soon as Saijou is gone, he runs as fast as he can to Rinko to make everything sparkling clear: it doesn’t matter whether other girls like him or not (sorry Ai!); Rinko is the only girl for him.

As they walk home hand-in-hand, tears suddenly come to Rinko; tears of happiness, which finally spur Takeo to say “I love you” out loud. Woo! And she says the same. Saijou may have felt like a rival and a possible antagonist last week, but turned out to be neither, but something much, much better: a lifting of the misconception of Takeo’s popularity with girls, a catalyst for the deepening of his relationship with Rinko, and, as we see the next day, a new friend who still wants to call him “master.” Saijou Mariya was another revelation in a show positively stacked with ’em.

Now, start falling for Suna. Immediately.


Principal Investigator:  Elisa Gordon, Ph.D., M.P.H.

Funded by:  5R21NR013660-02

The shortage of kidneys for KT results in almost 10,000 deaths per year in the United States. One strategy to increase the number of available kidneys is to offer kidney transplant (KT) candidates kidneys at increased risk (IR) of transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV), as defined using the 1994 US Public Health Service (PHS) guidelines for preventing infectious disease transmissions. IR donors are defined as those who have engaged in behaviors associated with an increased risk of HIV and HCV transmissions, and comprise approximately 9 percent of all US deceased organ donors. However, following an unexpected transmission of HIV and HCV from an IR deceased donor to 4 recipients in 2007, OPTN policy and Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) conditions of participation mandated informed consent from recipients who accept IR kidneys. Despite the requirements for specific informed consent, neither OPTN nor CMS offer guidance about how or what information should be disclosed to potential recipients. As a result, the current informed consent processes provide varying levels of information about IR donors. Further, KT candidates have been found to misunderstand what IR donors are and desire more information about IR donor kidneys than provided. Low literacy levels of KT candidates may limit their understanding of IR donor kidneys. The objective of this study is to increase KT candidates' comprehension about IR kidneys necessary for providing informed consent. To accomplish this objective, we will develop a web-based tool that educates and assesses candidates' comprehension (iGetIR), as a supplement to current informed consent processes. We will then conduct an RCT to compare the effectiveness of the current informed consent processes (controls) with the current consent processes supplemented by iGetIR. The tool will utilize health information technology to deliver information to candidates about the definition of, risks, benefits, and alternatives to using IR kidneys via a web-based application. We will develop educational materials by transforming infectious risk data into easy to comprehend information using adult learning theory, health communication best practices, and health literacy universal precautions. As part of this innovative informed consent process, computer adaptive learning will personalize information according to each candidate's comprehension levels in interactive chapters to increase comprehension. Given OPTN's and CMS's mandate, it is a priority of the transplant community to develop educational tools to improve the current informed consent process, and we are unaware of any interventions that address this need. Because transplant nurses play a central role in the multidisciplinary approach to the patient education and informed consent processes for KT, this study proposes to capitalize on their knowledge and expertise by supplementing the current informed consent processes.


Bindings: variables and animation

This video demonstrates the use of variables to animate items properties. It can be used to smoothly show or hide an object, or make it move, scale, rotate, etc.
Variables can either be builtin ones (date & time, cpu, battery, storage, etc.) or user defined ones. Variables can either be set using shortcuts and scripts, or externally, for instance from Tasker or other third party apps.


If you're as nuts as I am...

2008-12-20 15:34:16 by DonaldFletcher

There's now a version of "In Saturn's Ring" available for you to stream on AcidPlanet, where the only limitations on a song's quality is that it's under 20MB. Which means that there's a 24 bit file over there for you, with a sample rate of 88200 Hz (the way I recorded it). I kept it under 10 MB so everyone could still actually stream it.

So here's the link:
http://www.acidplanet.com/artist.asp?P ID=1187784&t=3036

Then come back and vote/review it here. I'd like to know what you think of this since I've completely upgraded my sound.

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