When no news is bad news - Detection of negative events from news media content
During the first wave of Covid-19 information decoupling could be observed in the flow of news media content. The corollary of the content alignment within and between news sources experienced by readers (i.e., all news transformed into Corona-news), was that the novelty of news content went down as media focused monotonically on the pandemic event. This all-important Covid-19 news theme turned out to be quite persistent as the pandemic continued, resulting in the, from a news media's perspective, paradoxical situation where the same news was repeated over and over. This information phenomenon, where novelty decreases and persistence increases, has previously been used to track change in news media, but in this study we specifically test the claim that new information decoupling behavior of media can be used to reliably detect change in news media content originating in a negative event, using a Bayesian approach to change point detection.
abstract.tex
\begin{abstract}
During the first wave of Covid-19 information decoupling could be observed in the flow of news media content. The corollary of the content alignment within and between news sources experienced by readers (i.e., all news transformed into Corona-news), was that the novelty of news content went down as media focused monotonically on the pandemic event. This all-important Covid-19 news theme turned out to be quite persistent as the pandemic continued, resulting in the, from a news media's perspective, paradoxical situation where the same news was repeated over and over. This information phenomenon, where novelty decreases and persistence increases, has previously been used to track change in news media, but in this study we specifically test the claim that new information decoupling behavior of media can be used to reliably detect change in news media content originating in a \emph{negative event}, using a Bayesian approach to change point detection.
\end{abstract}
acknowledgement.tex
\begin{acknowledgments}
This research was supported the "HOPE - How Democracies Cope with COVID-19"-project funded by The Carlsberg Foundation with grant CF20-0044, NeiC's Nordic Digital Humanities Laboratory project, and DeiC Type-1 HPC with project DeiC-AU1-L-000001. The authors would like to thank Berlingske Media, JP/Politkens Hus, and Kristeligt Dagblad for providing access to proprietary data.
\end{acknowledgments}
appendix.tex
    \appendix

\section{Methods}\label{appA}

\subsection*{Data and Normalization}
The data set consists of all linguistic content (title and body text) from front pages of six Danish national newspapers Berlingske, BT, Ekstrabladet, Jyllands-Posten, Kristligt Dagblad, and Politiken. The newspapers were sampled during December 1, 2019 to July 1 2020. Content not produced by the newspaper, e.g., advertisements, was excluded from the sample. In order to normalize linguistic content, numerals and highly frequent function words were removed, and the remaining data were lemmatized and casefolded. Subsequently, the data were represented as a bag-of-words (BoW) model using latent Dirichlet allocation in order to generate a dense low-rank representation of each article. Note that with a few modifications to equations \eqref{eq:4} and \eqref{eq:5}, the approach works for any probabilistic or geometric vector-representation of documents. Novelty and resonance were estimated for in windows of one week ($w = 7)$.

\subsection*{Novelty and Resonance}
Two related information signals were extracted from the temporally sorted BoW model: \textit{Novelty} as an article $s^{(j)}$'s reliable difference from past articles $s^{(j-1)}, s^{(j-2)} , \dots ,s^{(j-w)}$ in window $w$:

\begin{equation}
\mathbb{N}_w (j) = \frac{1}{w} \sum_{d=1}^{w}  JSD (s^{(j)} \mid s^{(j - d)})\label{eq:1}
\end{equation}

and \textit{resonance} as the degree to which future articles $s^{(j+1)}, s^{(j+2)}, \dots , s^{(j+w)}$ conforms to article $s^{(j)}$'s novelty:

\begin{equation}
\mathbb{R}_w (j) = \mathbb{N}_w (j) - \mathbb{T}_w (j)\label{eq:2}
\end{equation}

where $\mathbb{T}$ is the \textit{transience} of $s^{(j)}$:

\begin{equation}
\mathbb{T}_w (j) = \frac{1}{w} \sum_{d=1}^{w}  JSD (s^{(j)} \mid s^{(j + d)})\label{eq:3}
\end{equation}

The novelty-resonance model was originally proposed in \cite{barron_individuals_2018}, but here we propose a symmetrized and smooth version by using the Jensen–Shannon divergence ($JSD$):

\begin{equation}
JSD (s^{(j)} \mid s^{(k)}) =  \frac{1}{2} D (s^{(j)} \mid M) + \frac{1}{2} D (s^{(k)} \mid M)\label{eq:4}
\end{equation}

with $M = \frac{1}{2} (s^{(j)} + s^{(k)})$ and $D$ is the Kullback-Leibler divergence:

\begin{equation}
D (s^{(j)} \mid s^{(k)}) = \sum_{i = 1}^{K} s_i^{(j)} \times \log_2 \frac{s_i^{(j)}}{s_i^{(k)}}\label{eq:5}
\end{equation}

Finally, in order to describe the information states before and after an events (e.g., Lockdown, Opening), we fit resonance on novelty to estimate the $\mathbb{N}\times\mathbb{R}$ slope $\beta_1$ in the specific time windows:

\begin{equation}
\mathbb{R}_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1 \mathbb{N}_i + \epsilon_i, ~~ i = 1, \dots, n.\label{eq:7}
\end{equation}


\subsection*{Bayesian Change Point Detection}

For the estimation of change points, a Bayesian approach was used. Following previous considerations, we assume that the time series contains two change points, $\tau_1$ and $\tau_2$. Aside from change points, the series is assumed to be stable and follow a normal distribution with varied mean, $\mu_i$, and singular variance, $\sigma$. This gives us the following model given the observed Novelty, $\mathbb{N}_i$:

% model

\begin{equation}
  \mathbb{N}_{t} =
    \begin{cases}
      \text{$\mathcal{N}(\mu_1, \sigma)  \text { for }  t<\tau_{1}  $ } \\
      \text{$\mathcal{N}(\mu_2, \sigma)  \text { for }  \tau_{1}\leq t <\tau_{2} $ } \\
      \text{$\mathcal{N}(\mu_3, \sigma)  \text { for }   t\geq\tau_{2}$ } \\
    \end{cases}       
\end{equation}

for which we wish to estimate the location of the change points $\tau_i$, means $\mu_i$ and variance $\sigma$, i.e. the following posterior:


$$P(\mu_i,  \sigma , \tau_i | \mathbb{N}_t) = P(\mu_1 , \mu_2, \mu_3, \sigma , \tau_1, \tau_2 | \mathbb{N}_t)$$

For estimation of the posterior, we have used NUTS sampling as implemented in pyMC3 \citep{pymc3} using 4000 samples. The estimation was done using using naive to slightly conservative priors assuming that the change points, $\tau_i$, can be anywhere in the sequence (with $\tau_2 > \tau_1$) and that the variance, $\sigma$, is stable across change points. Note that the half Cauchy prior distribution has series of beneficial properties \citep{gelman_prior_nodate, polson_half-cauchy_2012} including its fat tail which allows for extreme values. These assumptions were modelled using the following priors:

% priors
\begin{equation*}
    \begin{split}
        \mu_i & \sim \mathcal{N}(0, 0.5)                   \\
        \sigma & \sim \text{Half Cauchy}(0.5)               \\
        \tau_1 & \sim \text{Uniform}(0, \text{max}(\mathbb{N}_{t}))        \\
        \tau_2 & \sim \text{Uniform}(\tau_1, \text{max}(\mathbb{N}_{t}))   \\
    \end{split}
\end{equation*}






\section{Online Resources}

All data are proprietary and have been collected through Infomedia's API: \url{https://infomedia.dk/}. For inquiries regarding models and derived data, please contact \url{kln@cas.au.dk}. The source code for methods is available on Github: \url{https://bit.ly/3beahFd}. More details on NID detection can be found at NeiC's NDHL website: \url{https://bit.ly/3bfeW9C}. 

keywords.tex
\begin{keywords}
  Newspapers \sep
  Pandemic Response \sep
  Bayesian Change Detection \sep
  Information Theory
\end{keywords}
main.tex
\documentclass{ceurart}

\usepackage{float}
\restylefloat{table}

\graphicspath{{fig/}}

\begin{document}

\input{metadata}

\input{abstract}

\input{keywords}

\maketitle

\section*{Introduction}
A peculiar behavior could be observed in news media when the first wave of Covid-19 virus spread across the world. In response to this pandemic event, the ordinary rate of change in news content was disrupted because every story became associated with Covid-19. On the one hand, content novelty went down, because every story became more similar to previous stories, but on the other hand, the Covid-19 association became more prevalent, resulting in, at least initially, an increase in content persistence. A recent study \cite{nielbo_news_2021} argues that this behavior is an example of the \emph{news information decoupling} (NID) principle, according to which information dynamics of news media are (initially) decoupled by temporally extended catastrophes such that the content novelty decreases as media focus monotonically on the catastrophic event, but the resonant property of said content increases as its continued relevance propagate throughout the news information system. The authors further argued NID can be used to detect significant change in news media that originate in catastrophic events.

Previous studies have shown that variation in newspapers' word usage is sensitive to the dynamics of socio-cultural events \cite{guldi_measures_2019, van_eijnatten_eurocentric_2019, daems_workers_2019}, can detect event-driven shifts \cite{kestemont_mining_2014}, and accurately can model effects of change in comprehensive collections of newspapers \cite{bos_quantifying_2016}. Furthermore, the associative structure of newspapers has been shown to accurately capture thematic development \cite{newman_probabilistic_2006}, and, when modelled dynamically, is indicative of the evolution of cultural values and biases \cite{van_eijnatten_eurocentric_2019, wevers_using_2019}. Adaptive fractal analysis of word frequencies over time has been used to discriminate between different classes of catastrophic events that display class-specific fractal signatures in, among other things, word usage in newspapers \cite{gao_culturomics_2012}. Several studies have shown that information theoretical construct can be used to detect fundamental conceptual differences between distinct periods \cite{guldi_measures_2019},  concurrent normative and ideological movements \cite{barron_individuals_2018}, and even, development of ideational factors (e.g., creative expression) in temporally dependent writings \cite{murdock_exploration_2015, nielbo_automated_2019, nielbo_curious_2019}. More specifically, a set of methodologically related studies studies have applied windowed relative entropy to thematic text representations to generate signals that capture information \emph{novelty} as a reliable content difference from the past and \emph{resonance} as the degree to which future information conforms to said novelty \cite{barron_individuals_2018, murdock_exploration_2015}. Three recent studies have found that successful social media content show a strong association between novelty and resonance \cite{nielbo_trend_2021}, that legacy news media under normal conditions display a remarkably similar medium to strong association between novelty and resonance across the political spectrum \cite{nielbo_news_2021}, and, finally, that variation in the novelty-resonance association can predict significant change points in historical data \cite{vrangbaek_composition_2021}.

This study specifically tests the claim of \cite{nielbo_news_2021} that NID-like behavior can provide input for change point detection algorithms. Specifically, we propose to test the claim that two change points are observable in news media during the first phase of Covid-19, $Lockdown$ and $Opening$ respectively, using a Bayesian approach to change point detection.

\begin{figure}
	\centering
	    \includegraphics[width=1\textwidth]{adaptline_politiken.png}\\
\caption{Novelty (upper panel) and resonance (lowerpanel) for the center-left newspaper \textit{Politiken} before and during Covid-19 phase 1. Trend lines in the upper and middle panel are estimated using a nonlinear adaptive filter suggested in \cite{nielbo_news_2021}.}
    \label{fig:poladapt}
\end{figure}

\section*{Results}

Figure \ref{fig:poladapt} displays a prototypical example of NID during the first phase of Covid-19 \cite{nielbo_news_2021}. Although Covid-19 news items date back to December 2019, `$Wuhan$', newspaper content is not impacted until the period after the first national outbreak (in this case in Denmark). `$Virus$`. From the phase 1 lockdown `$Lockdown$` to the opening, `$Opening$`, the newspaper shows a valley in novelty and, initially, a peak in resonance until both processes approximately return to normal after the opening.

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \begin{tabular}{lcccc}
    \hline
    Source & Class & \textit{NID} Start & \textit{NID} End & \textit{NID}\\
    \hline
        Berlingske & $B$ & $03.07~[03.03, 03.09]$ & $04.28~[04.09, 05.08]$ & $True$ \\
        BT & $T$ & $04.10~[12.30, 09.01]$ & $07.25~[04.22, 09.03]$ & $False$ \\
        Ekstrabladet & $T$ & $01.28~[01.02, 03.17]$ & $05.08~[01.16, 07.22]$ & $False$ \\
        Jyllands-Posten & $B$ & $03.10~[03.08, 03.14]$ & $05.25~[05.21, 06.06]$ & $True$ \\
        Kristligt Dagblad & $B$ & $03.07~[03.05, 03.12]$ & $04.15~[04.11, 04.17]$ & $True$\\
        Politiken & $B$ & $03.13~[03.12, 03.13]$ & $04.08~[04.05, 04.08]$ & $True$\\
        \hline
    \end{tabular}
    \caption{Estimated temporal change points at $94\%$ high density intervals for novelty. Column one contains the name of the newspaper, columns two its class ($B$roadsheet or $T$abloid), NID Start and End is the beginning and end of the lockdown as represented in the newspaper, and the final column indicated if the specific source supported the NID principle.}
    \label{tab:table1}
\end{table}

To validate the observed behavior, we tested for two change points in novelty using a Bayesian model, see Appendix \ref{appA} for methods. The first change point, `$NID$ Start` should separate pre-lockdown from lockdown centered on week 11, and the second lockdown, `$NID$ End` from post opening (centered on week 16). Table \ref{tab:table1} shows the estimated change points for six national newspapers, two of which are $T$abloid newspapers (Class) and the remainder $B$roadsheet. From the model, it can be observed that all broadsheet newspapers seem to support the NID principle in novelty. The first change point is placed in weeks 10-11, the second, however, is more a matter of contention. The opening change point lies within April and displays a month's delayed response. Finally, it can be observed that tabloid press shows no indication of NID behavior. Table \ref{tab:table2} and figure \ref{fig:posterior} show the posterior distributions, their means and highest density intervals, for four broadsheet and one tabloid newspaper, clearly indicating that broadsheet newspapers do conform to NID, while tabloids do not. 

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \begin{tabular}{lccc}
    \hline
    Source & $\mathbb{N}_{pre}$ & $\mathbb{N}_{NID}$ & $\mathbb{N}_{post}$\\
    \hline
        Berlingske &  $0.36~[0.35, 0.37]$ &  $0.29~[0.27, 0.31]$ &  $0.34~[0.34, 0.35]$ \\
        Jyllands-Posten & $0.29~[0.28, 0.30]$ &  $0.23~[0.22, 0.24]$ & $0.27~[0.26, 0.28]$ \\
        Kristligt Dagblad & $0.27~[0.26, 0.28]$ & $0.19~[0.18, 0.21]$ & $0.26~[0.25, 0.27]$ \\
        Politiken & $0.27~[0.26, 0.28]$ & $0.15~[0.14, 0.17]$ & $0.26~[0.25, 0.26]$ \\
        \hline
    \end{tabular}
    \caption{Novelty values at $94\%$ high density intervals before during and after the lockdown for the four broadsheet newspapers that supported the NID principle, see table \ref{tab:table1}.}
    \label{tab:table2}
\end{table}

\begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{posterior_berlingske.png}\\
    %\includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{posterior_eb.png}\\
    \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{posterior_politiken.png}
    \caption{Posterior distributions of novelty at $94\%$ high density intervals for newspapers Berlingske, and Politiken, see table \ref{tab:table2}.}
    \label{fig:posterior}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}
    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=.32\textwidth]{regline_0_berlingske.png}
    \includegraphics[width=.32\textwidth]{regline_1_berlingske.png}
    \includegraphics[width=.32\textwidth]{regline_2_berlingske.png}\\
    
    \includegraphics[width=.32\textwidth]{regline_0_eb.png}
    \includegraphics[width=.32\textwidth]{regline_1_eb.png}
    \includegraphics[width=.32\textwidth]{regline_2_eb.png}\\
    
    \includegraphics[width=.32\textwidth]{regline_0_politiken.png}
    \includegraphics[width=.32\textwidth]{regline_1_politiken.png}
    \includegraphics[width=.32\textwidth]{regline_2_politiken.png}
    
    \caption{$\mathbb{N} \times \mathbb{R}$ slopes before during and after the lockdown for Berlingske (upper row), Ekstrabladet (middle row), and Politiken (lower row) during Covid-19 phase 1.}
    \label{fig:resonance}
\end{figure}

That novelty decreases during a catastrophic event is nevertheless only half the story. For NID to be supported by the data, resonance should increase during the lockdown such that the medium to strong association between novelty and resonance is momentarily weakened. Following \cite{nielbo_news_2021}, we inspected the time-windowed linear fits of resonance on novelty, $\mathbb{N} \times \mathbb{R}$, in order to confirm this, see figure \ref{fig:resonance}.  All broadsheet newspapers display a slope decrease during the lockdown, thereby conforming to the NID principle \ref{tab:table3}. Tabloids on the other hand, follow an inverse pattern, such that the $\mathbb{N} \times \mathbb{R}$ slope increases during the lockdown period.

\begin{table}[H]
    \centering
    \begin{tabular}{lccc}
    \hline
    Source & $\mathbb{N} \times \mathbb{R}_{pre}$ & $\mathbb{N} \times \mathbb{R}_{NID}$ & $\mathbb{N} \times \mathbb{R}_{post}$\\
    \hline
        Berlingske &  $0.33~[0.17, 0.51]$ &  $0.16~[-0.07, 0.38]$ &  $0.44~[0.32, 0.58]$\\
        BT &  $0.49~[0.29, 0.66]$ &  $0.55~[0.28, 0.83]$ &  $0.26~[0.08, 0.43]$\\
        Ekstrabladet &  $0.55~[0.38, 0.72]$ &  $0.65~[0.26, 1]$ &  $0.57~[42, 0.71]$\\
        Jyllands-Posten &  $0.42~[0.24, 0.63]$ &  $0.31~[0.04, 0.56]$ &  $0.39~[0.25, 0.51]$\\
        Kristligt Dagblad &  $0.57~[0.34, 0.78]$ &  $0.43~[0.06, 0.78]$ &  $0.76~[0.55, 0.95]$\\
        Politiken &  $0.39~[0.14, 0.61]$ &  $0.16~[-0.05, 0.37]$ &  $0.43~[0.32, 0.54]$\\
        \hline
    \end{tabular}
    \caption{NxR coefficients at 95\% confidence intervals before during and after the lockdown for all newspapers in the sample.}
    \label{tab:table3}
\end{table}

\section*{Concluding Remarks}
In conclusion, this study sought to validate the news information decoupling (NID) principle on a sample of six national Danish newspapers during the first phase of Covid-19. Using a Bayesian approach to change point detection, we found that content novelty in broadsheet newspapers does indeed display statistically reliable points of change during the Covid-19 lockdown. NID was further corroborated by the $\mathbb{N} \times \mathbb{R}_{pre}$ slopes that indicated a decoupling of resonance from novelty during the lockdown. Several observations can be made from the findings. First, the estimated change points for the `Pre-lockdown $\rightarrow$ Lockdown' are spread over a two week interval, which reflects that a lockdown could be reasonably predicted already from the first Covid-19 incident in Denmark. Second, in a similar vein the `Lockdown $\rightarrow$ Opening` change points are spread over an entire month from April 8 to May 8. The Danish government during the period was center-left and model's uncertainty in determining the opening may reflect political observations \cite{nielbo_news_2021}, where center-right newspapers (e.g., Berlingske and Jyllands-Postern) were more sceptical towards the government's implementation of an opening than the center-left (e.g., Politiken). In other words, the center-right might have been more reluctant to acknowledge the opening as a return to normal. Third, tabloid newspapers do not show any indication of a news decoupling, on the contrary, their $\mathbb{N} \times \mathbb{R}_{pre}$ slopes momentarily increases during the lockdown . This increase in slopes does, however, not provide much useful information, because, as shown by the change point detection model, the periodization is not meaningful to the two tabloid newspapers. 

Validation of the NID principle is still needed for multilingual data and its value for crisis management should be further tested. For change detection, the scope of the principle needs additional testing; does NID generalize beyond a small set of negative events to, for instance, temporally extended significant events (e.g., moon landing, fall of the Berlin Wall). Finally, several comparisons already hinted that left vs. right-wing newspapers, tabloid vs. broadsheet newspapers, silly season and other seasonal effects, are interesting venues for media and journalism researchers.    

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\section*{Appendix}
\input{appendix}

\input{acknowledgement}

\bibliography{main}
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\end{document}

metadata.tex
%% Rights management information.
%% CC-BY is default license.
\copyrightyear{2021}
\copyrightclause{Copyright for this paper by its authors.\\
  Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0
  International (CC BY 4.0).}

\conference{}
\title{When no news is bad news - Detection of negative events from news media content}

\author[1,2]{Kristoffer L. Nielbo}[%
orcid=0000-0002-5116-5070,
]
\ead{kln@cas.au.dk}
\ead[url]{https://knielbo.github.io/}

\author[1]{Frida Haestrup}[
orcid=0000-0001-7561-6297,
]
\ead{frihae@cas.au.dk}

\author[1]{Kenneth C. Enevoldsen}[
orcid=0000-0001-8733-0966,
]
\ead{kenneth.enevoldsen@cas.au.dk}

\author[1]{Peter B. Vahlstrup}[
orcid=0000-0003-4126-7740,
]
\ead{imvpbv@cc.au.dk}

\author[2]{Rebekah B. Baglini}[
orcid=0000-0002-2836-5867,
]
\ead{rbkh@cc.au.dk}

\author[2]{Andreas Roepstorff}[
orcid=0000-0002-3665-1708,
]


\address[1]{Center for Humanities Computing Aarhus, Jens Chr. Skous Vej 4, Building 1483, 3rd floor, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark}

\address[2]{Interacting Minds Centre, Jens Chr. Skous Vej 4, Building 1483, 3rd floor, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark}
main.bbl
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%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Nielbo et~al.(2021)Nielbo, Baglini, Vahlstrup, Enevoldsen, Bechmann,
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\bibinfo{author}{K.~L. Nielbo}, \bibinfo{author}{R.~B. Baglini},
  \bibinfo{author}{P.~B. Vahlstrup}, \bibinfo{author}{K.~C. Enevoldsen},
  \bibinfo{author}{A.~Bechmann}, \bibinfo{author}{A.~Roepstorff},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{News {Information} {Decoupling}: {An} {Information}
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\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{arXiv:2101.02956 [cs]}  (\bibinfo{year}{2021}).
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  2101.02956}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Guldi(2019)}]{guldi_measures_2019}
\bibinfo{author}{J.~Guldi},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{The {Measures} of {Modernity}: {The} {New}
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\bibitem[{van Eijnatten and Ros(2019)}]{van_eijnatten_eurocentric_2019}
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%Type = Inproceedings
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  {Humanities} ({LaTeCH})}, \bibinfo{publisher}{Association for Computational
  Linguistics}, \bibinfo{address}{Gothenburg, Sweden}, \bibinfo{year}{2014},
  pp. \bibinfo{pages}{62--70}. \URLprefix
  \url{http://aclweb.org/anthology/W14-0609}.
  \DOIprefix\doi{10.3115/v1/W14-0609}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Bos et~al.(2016)Bos, Wijfjes, Piscaer, and
  Voerman}]{bos_quantifying_2016}
\bibinfo{author}{P.~Bos}, \bibinfo{author}{H.~Wijfjes},
  \bibinfo{author}{M.~Piscaer}, \bibinfo{author}{G.~Voerman},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Quantifying “{Pillarization}”: {Extracting}
  {Political} {History} from {Large} {Databases} of {Digitized} {Media}
  {Collections}},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{Proceedings of the 3rd HistoInformatics Workshop}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2016}) \bibinfo{pages}{10}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Newman and Block(2006)}]{newman_probabilistic_2006}
\bibinfo{author}{D.~J. Newman}, \bibinfo{author}{S.~Block},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Probabilistic topic decomposition of an
  eighteenth-century {American} newspaper},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{Journal of the American Society for Information
  Science and Technology} \bibinfo{volume}{57} (\bibinfo{year}{2006})
  \bibinfo{pages}{753--767}. \URLprefix
  \url{http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/asi.20342}.
  \DOIprefix\doi{10.1002/asi.20342}.
%Type = Inproceedings
\bibitem[{Wevers(2019)}]{wevers_using_2019}
\bibinfo{author}{M.~Wevers},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Using {Word} {Embeddings} to {Examine} {Gender}
  {Bias} in {Dutch} {Newspapers}, 1950-1990},
\newblock in: \bibinfo{booktitle}{Proceedings of the 1st {International}
  {Workshop} on {Computational} {Approaches} to {Historical} {Language}
  {Change}}, \bibinfo{publisher}{Association for Computational Linguistics},
  \bibinfo{address}{Florence, Italy}, \bibinfo{year}{2019}, pp.
  \bibinfo{pages}{92--97}. \URLprefix
  \url{https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-4712}.
  \DOIprefix\doi{10.18653/v1/W19-4712}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Gao et~al.(2012)Gao, Hu, Mao, and Perc}]{gao_culturomics_2012}
\bibinfo{author}{J.~Gao}, \bibinfo{author}{J.~Hu}, \bibinfo{author}{X.~Mao},
  \bibinfo{author}{M.~Perc},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Culturomics meets random fractal theory: insights
  into long-range correlations of social and natural phenomena over the past
  two centuries},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{Journal of The Royal Society Interface}
  \bibinfo{volume}{9} (\bibinfo{year}{2012}) \bibinfo{pages}{1956--1964}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Barron et~al.(2018)Barron, Huang, Spang, and
  DeDeo}]{barron_individuals_2018}
\bibinfo{author}{A.~T.~J. Barron}, \bibinfo{author}{J.~Huang},
  \bibinfo{author}{R.~L. Spang}, \bibinfo{author}{S.~DeDeo},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Individuals, institutions, and innovation in the
  debates of the {French} {Revolution}},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}
  \bibinfo{volume}{115} (\bibinfo{year}{2018}) \bibinfo{pages}{4607--4612}.
  \URLprefix \url{http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1717729115}.
  \DOIprefix\doi{10.1073/pnas.1717729115}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Murdock et~al.(2015)Murdock, Allen, and
  DeDeo}]{murdock_exploration_2015}
\bibinfo{author}{J.~Murdock}, \bibinfo{author}{C.~Allen},
  \bibinfo{author}{S.~DeDeo},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Exploration and {Exploitation} of {Victorian}
  {Science} in {Darwin}'s {Reading} {Notebooks}},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{arXiv preprint arXiv:1509.07175}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2015}). \URLprefix \url{http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.07175}.
%Type = Inproceedings
\bibitem[{Nielbo et~al.(2019{\natexlab{a}})Nielbo, Perner, Larsen, Nielsen, and
  Laursen}]{nielbo_automated_2019}
\bibinfo{author}{K.~L. Nielbo}, \bibinfo{author}{M.~L. Perner},
  \bibinfo{author}{C.~P. Larsen}, \bibinfo{author}{J.~Nielsen},
  \bibinfo{author}{D.~Laursen},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Automated {Compositional} {Change} {Detection} in
  {Saxo} {Grammaticus}' {Gesta} {Danorum}},
\newblock in: \bibinfo{booktitle}{{DHN}}, \bibinfo{year}{2019}{\natexlab{a}},
  pp. \bibinfo{pages}{320--332}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Nielbo et~al.(2019{\natexlab{b}})Nielbo, Baunvig, Liu, and
  Gao}]{nielbo_curious_2019}
\bibinfo{author}{K.~L. Nielbo}, \bibinfo{author}{K.~F. Baunvig},
  \bibinfo{author}{B.~Liu}, \bibinfo{author}{J.~Gao},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{A curious case of entropic decay: {Persistent}
  complexity in textual cultural heritage},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{Digital Scholarship in the Humanities}
  \bibinfo{volume}{34} (\bibinfo{year}{2019}{\natexlab{b}}). \URLprefix
  \url{https://doi.org/10.1093/llc/fqy054}. \DOIprefix\doi{10.1093/llc/fqy054}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Nielbo et~al.(2021)Nielbo, Vahlstrup, and
  Bechmann}]{nielbo_trend_2021}
\bibinfo{author}{K.~Nielbo}, \bibinfo{author}{P.~Vahlstrup},
  \bibinfo{author}{A.~Bechmann},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Trend {Reservoir} {Detection}: {Minimal}
  {Persistence} and {Resonant} {Behavior} of {Trends} in {Social} {Media}},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{Proceedings of Computational Humanities Research}
  \bibinfo{volume}{1} (\bibinfo{year}{2021}).
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Vrangbæk and Nielbo(2021)}]{vrangbaek_composition_2021}
\bibinfo{author}{E.~Vrangbæk}, \bibinfo{author}{K.~Nielbo},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Composition and {Change} in {De} {Civitate} {Dei}:
  {A} {Case} {Study} of {Computationally} {Assisted} {Methods}},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{Studia Patristica}  (\bibinfo{year}{2021}).
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Salvatier et~al.(2016)Salvatier, Wiecki, and Fonnesbeck}]{pymc3}
\bibinfo{author}{J.~Salvatier}, \bibinfo{author}{T.~V. Wiecki},
  \bibinfo{author}{C.~Fonnesbeck},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Probabilistic programming in python using pymc3},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{PeerJ Computer Science} \bibinfo{volume}{2}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2016}) \bibinfo{pages}{e55}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Gelman(2006)}]{gelman_prior_nodate}
\bibinfo{author}{A.~Gelman},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{Prior distributions for variance parameters in
  hierarchical models},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{Bayesian Analysis} \bibinfo{volume}{1}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2006}) \bibinfo{pages}{515--533}.
  \DOIprefix\doi{10.1214/06-BA117A}.
%Type = Article
\bibitem[{Polson and Scott(2012)}]{polson_half-cauchy_2012}
\bibinfo{author}{N.~G. Polson}, \bibinfo{author}{J.~G. Scott},
\newblock \bibinfo{title}{On the {Half}-{Cauchy} {Prior} for a {Global} {Scale}
  {Parameter}},
\newblock \bibinfo{journal}{Bayesian Analysis} \bibinfo{volume}{7}
  (\bibinfo{year}{2012}) \bibinfo{pages}{887--902}. \URLprefix
  \url{https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba/1354024466}.
  \DOIprefix\doi{10.1214/12-BA730}, \bibinfo{note}{publisher: International
  Society for Bayesian Analysis}.

\end{thebibliography}

main.bib

@article{gao_facilitating_2011,
	title = {Facilitating {Joint} {Chaos} and {Fractal} {Analysis} of {Biosignals} through {Nonlinear} {Adaptive} {Filtering}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024331},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0024331},
	language = {en},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2017-10-18},
	journal = {PLoS ONE},
	author = {Gao, Jianbo and Hu, Jing and Tung, Wen-wen},
	editor = {Perc, Matjaz},
	month = sep,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {e24331},
	file = {afa_original.PDF:/home/kln/Documents/art/hurst/afa_original.PDF:application/pdf},
}

@article{gao_culturomics_2012,
	title = {Culturomics meets random fractal theory: insights into long-range correlations of social and natural phenomena over the past two centuries},
	volume = {9},
	number = {73},
	journal = {Journal of The Royal Society Interface},
	author = {Gao, Jianbo and Hu, Jing and Mao, Xiang and Perc, Matjaž},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {1956--1964},
}

@article{murdock_exploration_2015,
	title = {Exploration and {Exploitation} of {Victorian} {Science} in {Darwin}'s {Reading} {Notebooks}},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.07175},
	urldate = {2016-01-11},
	journal = {arXiv preprint arXiv:1509.07175},
	author = {Murdock, Jaimie and Allen, Colin and DeDeo, Simon},
	year = {2015},
	file = {Murdock_2015_Darwins_notebooks.pdf:C\:\\Users\\KLN\\Documents\\articles\\textMiningArticles\\Murdock_2015_Darwins_notebooks.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{riley_tutorial_2012,
	title = {A tutorial introduction to adaptive fractal analysis},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1664-042X},
	url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fphys.2012.00371/abstract},
	doi = {10.3389/fphys.2012.00371},
	urldate = {2016-05-19},
	journal = {Frontiers in Physiology},
	author = {Riley, Michael A. and Bonnette, Scott and Kuznetsov, Nikita and Wallot, Sebastian and Gao, Jianbo},
	year = {2012},
	file = {Gao_2012_Adaptive_fractial_analysis.pdf:C\:\\Users\\KLN\\Documents\\gao\\Gao_2012_Adaptive_fractial_analysis.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{wevers_tracking_2020,
	title = {Tracking the {Consumption} {Junction}: {Temporal} {Dependencies} between {Articles} and {Advertisements} in {Dutch} {Newspapers}},
	volume = {014},
	shorttitle = {Tracking the {Consumption} {Junction}},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Digital Humanities Quarterly},
	author = {Wevers, Melvin and Gao, Jianbo and Nielbo, Kirstoffer L.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2020},
}

@inproceedings{au_yeung_studying_2011,
	series = {{CIKM} '11},
	title = {Studying {How} the {Past} {Is} {Remembered}: {Towards} {Computational} {History} through {Large} {Scale} {Text} {Mining}},
	isbn = {978-1-4503-0717-8},
	shorttitle = {Studying {How} the {Past} {Is} {Remembered}},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1145/2063576.2063755},
	urldate = {2020-10-11},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 20th {ACM} {International} {Conference} on {Information} and {Knowledge} {Management}},
	publisher = {Association for Computing Machinery},
	author = {Au Yeung, Ching-man and Jatowt, Adam},
	month = oct,
	year = {2011},
	note = {event-place: New York, NY, USA},
	keywords = {computational history, news analysis, temporal analysis},
	pages = {1231--1240},
}

@article{nielbo_trend_2021,
	title = {Trend {Reservoir} {Detection}: {Minimal} {Persistence} and {Resonant} {Behavior} of {Trends} in {Social} {Media}},
	volume = {1},
	journal = {Proceedings of Computational Humanities Research},
	author = {Nielbo, K.L. and Vahlstrup, P.B. and Bechmann, A.},
	year = {2021},
}

@article{vrangbaek_composition_2021,
	title = {Composition and {Change} in {De} {Civitate} {Dei}: {A} {Case} {Study} of {Computationally} {Assisted} {Methods}},
	journal = {Studia Patristica},
	author = {Vrangbæk, E.E.H and Nielbo, K.L.},
	year = {2021},
}

@inproceedings{nielbo_automated_2019,
	title = {Automated {Compositional} {Change} {Detection} in {Saxo} {Grammaticus}' {Gesta} {Danorum}},
	booktitle = {{DHN}},
	author = {Nielbo, Kristoffer L. and Perner, M. L. and Larsen, C. P. and Nielsen, Jonas and Laursen, D.},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {320--332},
}

@article{barron_individuals_2018,
	title = {Individuals, institutions, and innovation in the debates of the {French} {Revolution}},
	volume = {115},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1717729115},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1717729115},
	language = {en},
	number = {18},
	urldate = {2020-05-28},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Barron, Alexander T. J. and Huang, Jenny and Spang, Rebecca L. and DeDeo, Simon},
	month = may,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {4607--4612},
	file = {Barron et al. - 2018 - Individuals, institutions, and innovation in the d.pdf:/home/knielbo/Documents/articles/information_theory/Barron et al. - 2018 - Individuals, institutions, and innovation in the d.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{nielbo_curious_2019,
	title = {A curious case of entropic decay: {Persistent} complexity in textual cultural heritage},
	volume = {34},
	issn = {2055-7671},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/llc/fqy054},
	doi = {10.1093/llc/fqy054},
	abstract = {To understand an author’s developmental trajectory, the static traits and properties of author reconstruction and profiling are not sufficient. Instead, it is necessary to focus on high-level indicators of the complex set of variables that underlie the author’s transient mental states during his or her creative production. We propose a method that combines information theory with random fractal theory to study the mental dynamics of an author as indicated by text complexity. To illustrate its application, we analyze the developmental trajectory of the culturally influential and ‘graphomanic’ 19th-century Danish pastor N. F. S. Grundtvig. This approach can detect an age-related trend (entropic decay), a significant Kehre (turning point), and multiple event-related change points in his production. We argue that the approach is applicable beyond the specific case and can be extended to comparative analysis within and between authors, and, finally, to dynamic analysis of cultural information systems.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2019-07-02},
	journal = {Digital Scholarship in the Humanities},
	author = {Nielbo, Kristoffer L and Baunvig, Katrine F and Liu, Bin and Gao, Jianbo},
	year = {2019},
}

@article{van_eijnatten_eurocentric_2019,
	title = {The {Eurocentric} {Fallacy}. {A} {Digital}-{Historical} {Approach} to the {Concepts} of ‘{Modernity}’, ‘{Civilization}’ and ‘{Europe}’ (1840–1990)},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2666-6529, 2213-0624},
	url = {https://brill.com/view/journals/hcm/7/1/article-p686_33.xml},
	doi = {10.18352/hcm.580},
	abstract = {According to recent literature, the idea of Europe as it developed during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries coincided closely with the concepts of ‘civilization’ and ‘modernity’. This article examines this claim by testing the existence of modernity, civilization and Europe as a conceptual ‘trinity’ by using digital history techniques. Word frequencies, collocations and word embeddings are employed to analyze four Dutch newspapers (Algemeen Handelsblad, Nieuwe Rotterdamsche Courant, De Telegraaf, De Leeuwarder Courant) spanning the period 1840–1990. It transpires that semantic relations between the three elements are hardly visible; in so far as they appear, they hardly constitute a close-knit ‘trinity’. Alternating combinations among the three components were more significant than direct connections between all three, while ‘the West’ was more central than Europe. These findings suggest that popular media like newspapers have a different take on culturalpolitical concepts than writings by the intellectual elite.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-01-04},
	journal = {International Journal for History, Culture and Modernity},
	author = {van Eijnatten, Joris and Ros, Ruben},
	month = nov,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {686--736},
	file = {van Eijnatten and Ros - 2019 - The Eurocentric Fallacy. A Digital-Historical Appr.pdf:/home/knielbo/CENTRAL/articles/newspapers/van Eijnatten and Ros - 2019 - The Eurocentric Fallacy. A Digital-Historical Appr.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{guldi_measures_2019,
	title = {The {Measures} of {Modernity}: {The} {New} {Quantitative} {Metrics} of {Historical} {Change} {Over} {Time} and {Their} {Critical} {Interpretation}},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2666-6529, 2213-0624},
	shorttitle = {The {Measures} of {Modernity}},
	url = {https://brill.com/view/journals/hcm/7/1/article-p899_42.xml},
	doi = {10.18352/hcm.589},
	abstract = {What can digital methods tell us about modernity? This article reviews a series of recent traditional and quantitative attempts to define ‘modernity’ in the nineteenth century. Mass digitization allows scholars to track modernity through counts of words per year, the study of discourses (through topic modelling), and relative statistical expression over time (through divergence measurement). The results of this work confirm recent scholarship in social history that demonstrates the rising importance of meat, other food and water to national policy, as well as understudied debates on the history of fisheries. It also demonstrates that different parties in parliament had different relationships to futurity. A case study compares Liberal and Conservative party relationships to past and future through an overview of particular speakers’ lexicons. As a survey of methods, this article’s conclusion is that digital methods can demonstrate not only shifting values, but also require us to think about different relationships to chronology and periodization of individuals and ideas embedded in the past.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-01-04},
	journal = {International Journal for History, Culture and Modernity},
	author = {Guldi, Jo},
	month = nov,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {899--939},
	file = {Guldi - 2019 - The Measures of Modernity The New Quantitative Me.pdf:/home/knielbo/CENTRAL/articles/newspapers/Guldi - 2019 - The Measures of Modernity The New Quantitative Me.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{newman_probabilistic_2006,
	title = {Probabilistic topic decomposition of an eighteenth-century {American} newspaper},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {15322882, 15322890},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/asi.20342},
	doi = {10.1002/asi.20342},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2021-01-04},
	journal = {Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology},
	author = {Newman, David J. and Block, Sharon},
	month = apr,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {753--767},
	file = {Newman and Block - 2006 - Probabilistic topic decomposition of an eighteenth.pdf:/home/knielbo/CENTRAL/articles/newspapers/Newman and Block - 2006 - Probabilistic topic decomposition of an eighteenth.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{daems_workers_2019,
	title = {‘{Workers} of the {World}’? {A} {Digital} {Approach} to {Classify} the {International} {Scope} of {Belgian} {Socialist} {Newspapers}, 1885–1940},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {2506-6587},
	shorttitle = {‘{Workers} of the {World}’?},
	url = {https://ojs.ugent.be/jeps/article/view/10187},
	doi = {10.21825/jeps.v4i1.10187},
	abstract = {Socialism has always been strongly related to internationalism, yet the attitude towards and expression of internationalism has likely changed throughout the years. Events such as the First World War, the post-war revival of institutionalized internationalism and the increasing geopolitical tensions during the interwar period are likely to impact the degree of internationalism found in socialism. In this paper, we use digital tools to search for expressions of ‘banal’ internationalism and cosmopolitanism in Belgian socialist discourse from 1885 until 1940 by text mining two socialist newspapers: the French journal Le Peuple and the Dutch Vooruit.1 We use Named-Entity Recognition (NER) and a collocation analysis to study international and cosmopolitan sentiments expressed in these periodicals to better understand the impact of historical events. In addition, we highlight some of the difficulties encountered in collecting and processing the relevant data.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-01-04},
	journal = {Journal of European Periodical Studies},
	author = {Daems, Joke and D’haeninck, Thomas and Hengchen, Simon and Zere, Tecle and Verbruggen, Christophe},
	month = jun,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {99--114},
	file = {Daems et al. - 2019 - ‘Workers of the World’ A Digital Approach to Clas.pdf:/home/knielbo/CENTRAL/articles/newspapers/Daems et al. - 2019 - ‘Workers of the World’ A Digital Approach to Clas.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{viola_mining_2020,
	title = {Mining ethnicity: {Discourse}-driven topic modelling of immigrant discourses in the {USA}, 1898–1920},
	volume = {35},
	issn = {2055-7671, 2055-768X},
	shorttitle = {Mining ethnicity},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/dsh/article/35/4/921/5601610},
	doi = {10.1093/llc/fqz068},
	abstract = {Abstract
            This article aims to offer a methodological contribution to digital humanities by exploring the value of a mixed-method approach to uncover and understand historical patterns in large quantities of textual data. It refines the distant reading technique of topic modelling (TM) by using the discourse-historical approach (DHA——Wodak, 2001) in order to analyse the mechanisms underlying discursive practices in historical newspapers. Specifically, we investigate public discourses produced by Italian minorities and test the methodology on a corpus of digitized Italian ethnic newspapers published in the USA between 1898 and 1920 (ChroniclItaly—Viola, 2018). This combined methodology, which we suggest to label ‘discourse-driven topic modelling’ (DDTM), enabled us to triangulate linguistic, social, and historical data and to examine how the changing experience of migration, identity construction, and assimilation was reflected over time in the accounts of the minorities themselves. The results proved DDTM to be effective in obtaining a categorization of the topics discussed in the immigrant press. The changing distribution of topics over time revealed how the Italian immigrant community negotiated their sense of connectedness with both the host country and the homeland. At the same time, without jeopardizing the analytical depth of the findings, the method proved its value of minimizing the risk of biases when identifying the topics which stemmed from the results rather than from preconceived assumptions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2021-01-04},
	journal = {Digital Scholarship in the Humanities},
	author = {Viola, Lorella and Verheul, Jaap},
	month = dec,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {921--943},
	file = {Viola and Verheul - 2020 - Mining ethnicity Discourse-driven topic modelling.pdf:/home/knielbo/CENTRAL/articles/newspapers/Viola and Verheul - 2020 - Mining ethnicity Discourse-driven topic modelling.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{bos_quantifying_2016,
	title = {Quantifying “{Pillarization}”: {Extracting} {Political} {History} from {Large} {Databases} of {Digitized} {Media} {Collections}},
	abstract = {We analyzed long-term dynamic developments in newspaper content in connection with the process of pillarization (the segmentation of Dutch society and politics along religious/ideological cleavages) over the period 1918–1967. One of the main characteristics of the historical debate on this phenomenon is an alleged close connection of political and media organizations on personnel, organizational and content-driven levels. In the political communication debate, this raises the question about the relationship between ‘politization of media’ and ‘mediatization of politics’. Our preliminary study shows how patterns in the interactive relation between politics and newspapers can be further unraveled, by analyzing data based on the digitized newspaper collection of the Royal Dutch Library and related digitized political historical sources (parliament, parties, biographical material). In particular, it shows differences between Socialist and Catholic approaches towards the pillarized culture of “the other” and themselves. Whereas the Socialist pillar mainly focused on the politics and socio-economics of both their own and other groups, we ﬁnd that the Catholic pillar was more inclined towards cultural and organizational self-reference.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Proceedings of the 3rd HistoInformatics Workshop},
	author = {Bos, Patrick and Wijfjes, Huub and Piscaer, Maaike and Voerman, Gerrit},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {10},
	file = {Bos et al. - Quantifying “Pillarization” Extracting Political .pdf:/home/knielbo/CENTRAL/articles/newspapers/Bos et al. - Quantifying “Pillarization” Extracting Political .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@inproceedings{wevers_using_2019,
	address = {Florence, Italy},
	title = {Using {Word} {Embeddings} to {Examine} {Gender} {Bias} in {Dutch} {Newspapers}, 1950-1990},
	url = {https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-4712},
	doi = {10.18653/v1/W19-4712},
	abstract = {Contemporary debates on ﬁlter bubbles and polarization in public and social media raise the question to what extent news media of the past exhibited biases. This paper specifically examines bias related to gender in six Dutch national newspapers between 1950 and 1990. We measure bias related to gender by comparing local changes in word embedding models trained on newspapers with divergent ideological backgrounds. We demonstrate clear differences in gender bias and changes within and between newspapers over time. In relation to themes such as sexuality and leisure, we see the bias moving toward women, whereas, generally, the bias shifts in the direction of men, despite growing female employment number and feminist movements. Even though Dutch society became less stratiﬁed ideologically (depillarization), we found an increasing divergence in gender bias between religious and social-democratic on the one hand and liberal newspapers on the other. Methodologically, this paper illustrates how word embeddings can be used to examine historical language change. Future work will investigate how ﬁne-tuning deep contextualized embedding models, such as ELMO, might be used for similar tasks with greater contextual information.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-01-04},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 1st {International} {Workshop} on {Computational} {Approaches} to {Historical} {Language} {Change}},
	publisher = {Association for Computational Linguistics},
	author = {Wevers, Melvin},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {92--97},
	file = {Wevers - 2019 - Using Word Embeddings to Examine Gender Bias in Du.pdf:/home/knielbo/CENTRAL/articles/newspapers/Wevers - 2019 - Using Word Embeddings to Examine Gender Bias in Du.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@inproceedings{kestemont_mining_2014,
	address = {Gothenburg, Sweden},
	title = {Mining the {Twentieth} {Century}’s {History} from the {Time} {Magazine} {Corpus}},
	url = {http://aclweb.org/anthology/W14-0609},
	doi = {10.3115/v1/W14-0609},
	abstract = {In this paper we report on an explorative study of the history of the twentieth century from a lexical point of view. As data, we use a diachronic collection of 270,000+ English-language articles harvested from the electronic archive of the well-known Time Magazine (1923–2006). We attempt to automatically identify signiﬁcant shifts in the vocabulary used in this corpus using efﬁcient, yet unsupervised computational methods, such as Parsimonious Language Models. We offer a qualitative interpretation of the outcome of our experiments in the light of momentous events in the twentieth century, such as the Second World War or the rise of the Internet. This paper follows up on a recent string of frequentist approaches to studying cultural history (‘Culturomics’), in which the evolution of human culture is studied from a quantitative perspective, on the basis of lexical statistics extracted from large, textual data sets.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-01-04},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 8th {Workshop} on {Language} {Technology} for {Cultural} {Heritage}, {Social} {Sciences}, and {Humanities} ({LaTeCH})},
	publisher = {Association for Computational Linguistics},
	author = {Kestemont, Mike and Karsdorp, Folgert and Düring, Marten},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {62--70},
	file = {Kestemont et al. - 2014 - Mining the Twentieth Century’s History from the Ti.pdf:/home/knielbo/CENTRAL/articles/newspapers/Kestemont et al. - 2014 - Mining the Twentieth Century’s History from the Ti.pdf:application/pdf},
}


@article{pymc3,
  title={Probabilistic programming in Python using PyMC3},
  author={Salvatier, John and Wiecki, Thomas V and Fonnesbeck, Christopher},
  journal={PeerJ Computer Science},
  volume={2},
  pages={e55},
  year={2016},
  publisher={PeerJ Inc.}
}

@article{polson_half-cauchy_2012,
	title = {On the {Half}-{Cauchy} {Prior} for a {Global} {Scale} {Parameter}},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {1936-0975, 1931-6690},
	url = {https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba/1354024466},
	doi = {10.1214/12-BA730},
	abstract = {This paper argues that the half-Cauchy distribution should replace the inverse-Gamma distribution as a default prior for a top-level scale parameter in Bayesian hierarchical models, at least for cases where a proper prior is necessary. Our arguments involve a blend of Bayesian and frequentist reasoning, and are intended to complement the case made by Gelman (2006) in support of folded-tt{\textless}math alttext="\$t\$" overflow="scroll"{\textgreater}{\textless}mi{\textgreater}t{\textless}/mi{\textgreater}{\textless}/math{\textgreater} priors. First, we generalize the half-Cauchy prior to the wider class of hypergeometric inverted-beta priors. We derive expressions for posterior moments and marginal densities when these priors are used for a top-level normal variance in a Bayesian hierarchical model. We go on to prove a proposition that, together with the results for moments and marginals, allows us to characterize the frequentist risk of the Bayes estimators under all global-shrinkage priors in the class. These results, in turn, allow us to study the frequentist properties of the half-Cauchy prior versus a wide class of alternatives. The half-Cauchy occupies a sensible middle ground within this class: it performs well near the origin, but does not lead to drastic compromises in other parts of the parameter space. This provides an alternative, classical justification for the routine use of this prior. We also consider situations where the underlying mean vector is sparse, where we argue that the usual conjugate choice of an inverse-gamma prior is particularly inappropriate, and can severely distort inference. Finally, we summarize some open issues in the specification of default priors for scale terms in hierarchical models.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2021-01-29},
	journal = {Bayesian Analysis},
	author = {Polson, Nicholas G. and Scott, James G.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2012},
	mrnumber = {MR3000018},
	zmnumber = {1330.62148},
	note = {Publisher: International Society for Bayesian Analysis},
	keywords = {hierarchical models, normal scale mixtures, shrinkage},
	pages = {887--902},
	file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/Haestrup/Zotero/storage/WRCG3L7U/Polson and Scott - 2012 - On the Half-Cauchy Prior for a Global Scale Parame.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:/Users/Haestrup/Zotero/storage/KNIN79Z2/1354024466.html:text/html}
}


@article{gelman_prior_nodate,
	title = {Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models},
	abstract = {Various noninformative prior distributions have been suggested for scale parameters in hierarchical models. We construct a new folded-noncentral-t family of conditionally conjugate priors for hierarchical standard deviation parameters, and then consider noninformative and weakly informative priors in this family. We use an example to illustrate serious problems with the inverse-gamma family of “noninformative” prior distributions. We suggest instead to use a uniform prior on the hierarchical standard deviation, using the half-t family when the number of groups is small and in other settings where a weakly informative prior is desired. We also illustrate the use of the half-t family for hierarchical modeling of multiple variance parameters such as arise in the analysis of variance.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-01-29},
	journal = {Bayesian Analysis},
	volume = {1},
	author = {Gelman, Andrew},
	month = sep,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {515-533},
	doi = {10.1214/06-BA117A},
	file = {Gelman - Prior distributions for variance parameters in hie.pdf:/Users/Haestrup/Zotero/storage/T599CDS5/Gelman - Prior distributions for variance parameters in hie.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{nielbo_news_2021,
	title = {News {Information} {Decoupling}: {An} {Information} {Signature} of {Catastrophes} in {Legacy} {News} {Media}},
	shorttitle = {News {Information} {Decoupling}},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2101.02956},
	abstract = {Content alignment in news media was an observable information effect of Covid-19’s initial phase. During the first half of 2020, legacy news media became ‘corona news’ following national outbreak and crises management patterns. While news media are neither unbiased nor infallible as sources of events, they do provide a window into socio-cultural responses to events. In this paper, we use legacy print media from Denmark to empirically derive the principle News Information Decoupling (NID) that functions as an information signature of culturally significant catastrophic event. Formally, NID provides input to change detection algorithms and points to several unsolved research problems in the intersection of information theory and media studies.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-02-11},
	journal = {arXiv:2101.02956 [cs]},
	author = {Nielbo, Kristoffer L. and Baglini, Rebekah B. and Vahlstrup, Peter B. and Enevoldsen, Kenneth C. and Bechmann, Anja and Roepstorff, Andreas},
	month = jan,
	year = {2021},
	note = {arXiv: 2101.02956},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Computers and Society},
}