News: The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with US stocks closing higher despite Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks, suggesting a potential 'risk-on' environment that could benefit Bitcoin. However, recent macroeconomic headwinds, like the Evergrande bankruptcy and broader market sell-offs, introduce bearish pressures. Key developments include ARK Invest's ETF filing amendments, which are positive for institutional adoption, and Coinbase's exploration of the Lightning Network, enhancing Bitcoin's utility. The Ripple ruling also offers some regulatory clarity. Overall, the short-term outlook is mixed, with potential for upside driven by positive sentiment and adoption news, but tempered by macroeconomic risks.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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