News: Bitcoin is showing signs of consolidation, trading around $10,500-$10,700, with mixed signals from the news. Long-term, institutional adoption is a key theme, with Fidelity's ETF filing and MicroStrategy's corporate purchase setting positive precedents. Politically, a pro-Bitcoin Senate candidate's win suggests potential regulatory tailwinds. Short-term, while macro events like stimulus talks can cause volatility (as seen with Trump's tweet), underlying ecosystem growth, particularly in DeFi (MetaMask user milestone, RSK/DAI integration), remains a bullish driver. Increased hashrate also points to network strength.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 55% | Base 30% | Bear 15%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.575, "key_reason": "Fidelity's pursuit of a Bitcoin index fund represents a significant step towards institutional accep"}