News: Bitcoin experienced extreme volatility today, surging to near $14,000 before a sharp 18% crash to below $11,000, coinciding with exchange outages like Coinbase. This dramatic price action, coupled with a broader market sell-off of $58 billion, indicates significant short-term bearish sentiment. However, long-term bullish factors remain, including increasing institutional interest and positive developments like Lightning Network integration and major tech company adoption (e.g., Facebook's Libra). The divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins, with Bitcoin gaining dominance, suggests a flight to quality.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 30% | Bear 30%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "The significant increase in the Winklevoss twins' net worth, directly tied to Bitcoin's price surge,"}