News: The crypto market is showing signs of a gradual recovery, but Bitcoin's momentum remains weak, trading below $6,500 with a persistent negative bias. Regulatory actions, such as the cease and desist orders in Colorado and ongoing discussions around Bitcoin ETFs, are creating mixed sentiment. While positive news like Tim Draper's prediction and institutional interest in ETFs offer some bullish potential, significant altcoin price drops and security concerns like the Bitmain lawsuit are contributing to bearish pressure. The upcoming Bitcoin Cash hard fork adds another layer of uncertainty.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 35% | Base 40% | Bear 25%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "The call for updated IRS tax guidelines on Bitcoin is a significant step towards regulatory clarity "}