News: The crypto market is navigating mixed signals. Long-term, regulatory clarity in Japan and the potential for institutional adoption via Bakkt are bullish indicators. However, continued SEC delays on Bitcoin ETFs introduce short-term uncertainty. Geopolitical events in Argentina are driving localized demand for Bitcoin as a safe haven, while broader macroeconomic data suggests a potential shift towards risk-on sentiment, which could indirectly benefit Bitcoin.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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