News: Bitcoin is trading sideways near the $20,000 mark, showing a lack of strong conviction. While some altcoins like XRP are showing gains, broader market sentiment remains cautious due to macroeconomic concerns and negative news from the crypto lending sector (Celsius executives cashing out). Mining difficulty is set to increase, pressuring miner profitability, while institutional players like Grayscale are looking to capitalize on distressed mining assets. The strengthening correlation between Bitcoin and gold suggests a potential shift towards a safe-haven narrative, but overall volatility remains high.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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