News: Bitcoin is showing signs of consolidation around the $7,500 level, with a near-term bearish trend persisting despite a weekly golden cross signal. Institutional developments, such as Bakkt expanding its derivatives offerings and Fidelity exploring internal blockchain tokens, continue to signal long-term bullish potential. However, regulatory actions against crypto scammers and leadership changes at derivatives platforms like LedgerX introduce short-term bearish sentiment and uncertainty. The broader market is awaiting clearer catalysts for a sustained upward move.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "Novogratz's enduring optimism, despite market volatility, signals sustained institutional conviction"}