News: Bitcoin is trading listlessly between key technical averages amidst rising bond market volatility and a slide in Chinese stocks, indicating a cautious short-term sentiment. However, long-term bullish signals persist, driven by analyst predictions of explosive growth tied to the four-year cycle and potential political outcomes favoring crypto. The growing institutional adoption, evidenced by Taiwan's pilot program and significant staking deposits in Bitcoin protocols, provides a solid foundation for continued growth. Regulatory developments, such as Crypto.com's lawsuit against the SEC, introduce short-term uncertainty, while the potential movement of PlusToken-related coins poses a near-term bearish risk.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "A tax on unrealized gains would fundamentally alter the investment landscape for crypto, potentially"}