News: Bitcoin is trading with caution around the $8.8K level, showing a notable correlation with the S&P 500, which is also facing resistance. Market sentiment is mixed, with optimism surrounding the upcoming halving event clashing with concerns about US-China tensions and potential post-halving price pullbacks indicated by historical data. Technical indicators suggest short-term bearish pressure, with Bitcoin testing key moving averages. Security concerns related to crypto mining malware and questions surrounding stablecoin stability add to the overall market uncertainty.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 35% | Base 40% | Bear 25%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "The halving event directly impacts Bitcoin's supply dynamics, reducing the rate at which new coins e"}