News: Bitcoin is treading water, awaiting a break above $7,780, with mixed signals from the market. Positive news from China regarding blockchain technology and SEC clarification on crypto not being securities offer bullish undertones. However, skepticism from a major hedge fund and the outperformance of Binance Coin against Bitcoin suggest potential short-term headwinds and capital rotation. Broader market sentiment, influenced by tech stock rallies like Tesla and ETF inclusions, remains cautiously optimistic.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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