News: Bitcoin experienced a volatile day, rallying to over $10,180 before a sharp sell-off to $9,720, potentially linked to CME futures. Despite this pullback, the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic due to ongoing institutional infrastructure development and regulatory clarity efforts. Key watch items include the $9,586 support level and the impact of the upcoming halving.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "The sudden and significant sell-off after a strong rally, potentially driven by futures market activ"}