News: Bitcoin is experiencing a volatile day, trading below $61K after a sharp decline, driven by disappointing US economic data and hawkish Fed commentary. This has dampened risk appetite, impacting both traditional markets and crypto. While some altcoins show strength due to specific news, the overall sentiment is cautious. Long-term, the halving narrative and institutional adoption via ETFs remain key bullish drivers, but short-term headwinds from macro data are present.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "Past halvings have historically preceded significant bull runs, indicating a strong cyclical pattern"}