News: The market sentiment is mixed, with a bearish short-term trend indicated by Bitcoin's significant price drop and breach of support levels. However, long-term catalysts remain strong, with the impending halving and increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge providing a bullish backdrop. Reduced institutional futures volume suggests a temporary cooling of speculative activity.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 30% | Bear 30%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "The sharp price drop and breach of support levels indicate immediate selling pressure, suggesting a "}