News: Bitcoin shows modest gains, driven by a general positive sentiment in crypto markets and a strong Bitcoin vs. Ethereum performance. However, upcoming FOMC decisions and geopolitical factors in Hong Kong introduce uncertainty. Developments in retail adoption, such as in Brazil and Estonia, and regulatory discussions around FATF guidelines are ongoing. The market is also watching institutional interest, with Grayscale's AUM growth and discussions around Bitcoin ETFs being key long-term indicators.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 40% | Bear 15%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.575, "key_reason": "The Bitcoin halving is a fundamental supply-side event that has historically preceded significant pr"}