News: The market is showing mixed signals. Long-term, the potential for a spot Bitcoin ETF and increasing institutional adoption remain strong bullish drivers, despite ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Short-term, negative sentiment from crypto scams and friction with centralized platforms like Apple's App Store are creating headwinds. However, growing skepticism towards CBDCs could offer a counter-narrative favoring decentralized assets. The resilience shown by Bitcoin amidst regulatory actions against exchanges is a positive sign for its underlying strength.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by a major player like BlackRock is a significant insti"}