News: Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, dropping nearly 20% in two weeks and falling below $57,000, with derivatives trading cited as a key driver. Despite this short-term bearish pressure, long-term indicators suggest the bull market may continue. Institutional adoption remains a positive theme, with news of Walmart's Bitcoin ATM pilot and NYC Mayor-elect Adams accepting paychecks in BTC. However, potential Mt. Gox creditor payouts loom, posing a risk of selling pressure. The market is also reacting to macroeconomic factors like potential EU lockdowns and the US dollar's strength.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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