News: Bitcoin experienced significant volatility leading up to and immediately following its third halving event. A pre-halving sell-off saw prices drop from $10,000 to around $8,700, with a further dip post-halving. This suggests a 'sell the news' sentiment or miner capitulation. However, positive news includes macro investor Paul Tudor Jones's allocation to Bitcoin and funding for adoption-focused startups like Lolli, indicating growing institutional interest and consumer adoption efforts. Mining firms are also investing in new hardware, signaling confidence in future mining profitability.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 30% | Bear 30%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "A 10% daily gain driven by investor confidence is a strong bullish signal. This indicates increasing"}