News: Bitcoin faced resistance at $40K, leading to a pullback towards $38K, while Ethereum saw gains driven by the successful London hard fork upgrade. Institutional interest remains a key driver, with BNY Mellon partnering with Grayscale and JPMorgan launching a Bitcoin fund for clients. However, SEC Chairman Gensler's preference for futures ETFs over spot ETFs introduces regulatory uncertainty. China's continued mining crackdown also adds to global hash rate distribution shifts.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "This is a landmark event for Bitcoin, representing the first time a country has adopted it as legal "}