News: The market is showing mixed signals today. Long-term, the news regarding institutional adoption via regulated custody services (Coinbase in NY) and the upcoming ICE Bitcoin futures launch are bullish indicators, suggesting growing infrastructure and acceptance. However, concerns about regulatory scrutiny (SEC halts) and potential supply shocks (Mt. Gox payouts) continue to weigh on sentiment. Short-term, the focus remains on the development of regulated derivatives and the adoption of decentralized payment solutions like BTCPay, which are positive catalysts.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "The prohibition by major Chinese payment processors creates a significant barrier to entry and usage"}