News: The market is heavily focused on the upcoming Bitcoin halving, with price action showing mixed signals. While there's bullish momentum leading up to the event, historical patterns and recent volatility suggest potential for short-term choppiness. Institutional interest is growing, evidenced by increased options volume and futures activity, but macro uncertainties and pre-halving anxiety are creating indecision. The reduced supply from the halving remains a key long-term bullish driver.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "The halving directly reduces the new supply of Bitcoin entering the market. Historically, this reduc"}