News: Bitcoin is showing signs of consolidation, struggling to break key resistance levels around $3,700, which could lead to a short-term bearish move towards $3,400. However, positive macro sentiment from potential US-China trade deals and continued institutional interest, as evidenced by Grayscale's report and the filing of a new Bitcoin ETF, provide underlying bullish support. The launch of JPM Coin by JPMorgan Chase further signals institutional adoption of blockchain technology, albeit in a centralized manner.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.575, "key_reason": "The launch of JPM Coin by a major bank like JPMorgan Chase is a significant step towards mainstream "}