News: Bitcoin is facing resistance around the $9,000 level, failing to capitalize on broader market rallies. Institutional interest remains a key long-term driver, evidenced by the launch of a regulated Bitcoin fund in Hong Kong and growing interest from fundamental investors. However, short-term sentiment is cautious due to the inability to break key resistance and negative news surrounding Craig Wright. The upcoming Bitcoin halving remains a significant bullish factor for the longer term.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "The Bitcoin halving is a programmed event that reduces the rate of new Bitcoin creation, historicall"}