News: Today's market signals present a mixed but cautiously bearish short-term outlook for BTC, while long-term fundamentals remain resilient despite macro headwinds. The significant de-risking from the Genesis/DCG/Gemini settlement offers a crucial positive catalyst, potentially offsetting immediate selling pressure. However, persistent global recession fears, continued hawkish Fed expectations, and a multi-day BTC price dip suggest caution. Miner production updates are positive but minor, and UK regulatory tightening adds regional uncertainty.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 35% | Base 40% | Bear 25%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "A global recession would likely lead to capital flight from speculative assets like BTC, as investor"}