News: The crypto market is experiencing significant downward pressure today, primarily driven by hotter-than-expected US inflation data, which is fueling fears of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. Bitcoin and Ether have seen steep drops, leading to substantial futures liquidations. The upcoming Ethereum Merge remains a key event, but the immediate focus is on the macroeconomic headwinds. Regulatory news, such as the US Treasury blacklisting Bitcoin addresses tied to Iranian ransomware attacks and concerns over California's crypto bill, adds to the bearish sentiment.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 20% | Base 30% | Bear 50%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: SELL
Long-term: HOLD
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