News: Bitcoin has shown resilience, breaking above the $40,000 mark, driven by positive technicals and a potential short-covering rally. Institutional interest is evident with GBTC's discount narrowing and news of crypto entering 401(k) plans. However, regulatory headwinds persist, with China's crackdown and US sanctions on crypto addresses creating cautionary signals. The upcoming Fed announcement adds a layer of uncertainty for immediate price action.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 55% | Base 30% | Bear 15%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: BUY
Long-term: BUY
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