News: Today's news presents a mixed bag for Bitcoin. On the long-term front, growing adoption in regions like Venezuela and the framing of crypto as a counterculture movement offer bullish signals. However, regulatory concerns from the SEC and potential delisting of privacy coins in Japan introduce bearish elements. Short-term, France's tax cut is a positive catalyst, while SEC commissioner's comments and exchange hacks create headwinds. Macro factors like FOMC decisions and trade tensions add to the uncertainty.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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