News: Bitcoin is showing signs of short-term weakness, with technical indicators like the 'death cross' and declining volume suggesting potential downward pressure. This is occurring amidst broader market correlations with traditional assets. However, long-term sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by significant regulatory developments like India lifting its crypto ban and the increasing institutional interest in digital assets. The upcoming Bitcoin halving continues to be a key bullish catalyst for the medium term, while adoption trends like Lightning Network usage and bank integrations provide fundamental support.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "The lifting of the banking ban in India removes a significant hurdle for crypto adoption and trading"}