News: Bitcoin showed strength, jumping 4% on positive China manufacturing data which boosted global risk appetite. This aligns with a broader trend of improving sentiment in traditional markets, with the Nasdaq posting its best win streak in months. Long-term, the anticipation of cooling inflation and potential Fed easing remains a key bullish driver. However, concerns about a US CBDC potentially crowding out crypto and warnings of a 'bull trap' in the short term suggest caution.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 55% | Base 35% | Bear 10%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: BUY
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.6000000000000001, "key_reason": "Expectations of a Fed pivot or pause in rate hikes are a significant macro tailwind for Bitcoin. Red"}