News: Bitcoin is consolidating around the $40,000 mark after a strong weekly rally, facing resistance and showing signs of a potential short-term pause. Institutional adoption continues with State Street offering crypto services and CME Group reporting positive results driven by micro Bitcoin futures. However, regulatory developments like Iran's mining ban and the formation of a US House working group introduce mixed signals. The market is awaiting further catalysts to break through current resistance levels.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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