News: Bitcoin's price action remains under pressure, with technical indicators like the 'death cross' suggesting potential further downside. However, positive developments such as the SEC approving a Bitcoin futures fund and strong institutional interest from firms like State Street offer a bullish counter-narrative. China's continued push for blockchain adoption and the potential impact of the upcoming halving are key long-term drivers. Short-term, altcoin weakness, particularly Ethereum's significant drop, adds to bearish sentiment, while developments in Lightning Network adoption provide a glimmer of optimism.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 30% | Bear 30%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "The 'death cross' is a significant bearish technical signal that often precedes extended downturns. "}