News: The crypto market is showing mixed signals today. Long-term, institutional interest remains a key driver, with news of Morgan Stanley preparing Bitcoin derivatives trading and TD Ameritrade backing a new crypto exchange signaling growing acceptance. Regulatory developments, such as New York approving Bitcoin ATMs and a congressional committee calling for clearer tax codes, also point towards a more defined future for the asset class. Short-term, Ethereum's 2.0 progress and strong exchange revenues offer some bullish momentum, but Bitcoin's 10th birthday coinciding with a year-on-year loss suggests lingering bearish sentiment. Emerging market adoption, like Binance's rapid user growth in Uganda, provides a positive counterpoint.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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