News: Bitcoin is trading sideways under $26,000, with a bearish MACD signal on the weekly chart suggesting potential short-term weakness. The market is reacting to the SEC's aggressive regulatory actions against major exchanges, causing Layer 1 tokens to plummet and investors to flee altcoins towards Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins. Positive inflation data offers some relief, hinting at a potential Fed pause, which could be bullish for risk assets. However, increased miner outflows to exchanges signal potential selling pressure.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 30% | Bear 30%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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