News: The crypto market remains under significant pressure, with Bitcoin heading for its worst half-year loss on record. The SEC's rejection of Grayscale's spot Bitcoin ETF application and the subsequent lawsuit add regulatory uncertainty. Macroeconomic factors, including the record drop in global stock markets and the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital, reinforce a strong risk-off sentiment, suggesting continued bearish pressure in the short term. Despite some positive developments in mining expansion and adoption in emerging markets, the prevailing sentiment is overwhelmingly negative.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 20% | Base 30% | Bear 50%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: SELL
Long-term: HOLD
{"sentiment": "bearish", "price_direction": "down", "impact_strength": "high", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.6, "key_reason": "The explicit mention of a potential \"crypto winter\" signals a prolonged period of negative market se"}