News: Bitcoin's price has surged past $36,000, driven by strong anticipation of spot ETF approvals, with the SEC entering a key decision window. Miners are actively selling to lock in profits before the halving, creating potential short-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, new crypto ETFs are launching, and institutional interest remains high, as evidenced by BlackRock's Ethereum ETF filing. JPMorgan's cautious outlook on ETF inflows provides a counterpoint to the prevailing optimism. The upcoming CPI data will be a critical factor for market sentiment.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 60% | Base 30% | Bear 10%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.6, "key_reason": "The market's extreme reaction to a false ETF approval tweet demonstrates the immense pent-up demand "}