News: Bitcoin experienced a choppy trading day, closing down 1% and failing to hold key support levels, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. However, the long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic due to increasing institutional adoption, such as the sale of mining hashrate to institutional buyers and the potential for greater Bitcoin integration via platforms like Cash App. Macro factors like the Fed's asset expansion continue to support Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, though the rise of CBDCs and ongoing illicit activity concerns present headwinds.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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