News: Bitcoin has shown relative stability, even outperforming some tech stocks, suggesting potential resilience. The long-term outlook is influenced by the Ethereum Merge's ESG appeal and institutional adoption signals from Visa and PayPal. However, regulatory headwinds from the SEC's stance on crypto securities and ongoing macroeconomic concerns (inflation, Fed policy) remain significant bearish factors. Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition and potential crypto integrations offer a bullish short-term catalyst, but his political commentary adds an element of uncertainty.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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