News: The long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, primarily driven by the ongoing progress and positive court rulings concerning spot Bitcoin ETFs, with major asset managers like Franklin Templeton filing applications. Fidelity's analysis positioning Bitcoin as a monetary good also supports long-term adoption. However, short-term sentiment is mixed. Strong US jobs data has increased bond yields, creating macro headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin. Regulatory delays on ETF applications and news linking crypto to illicit activities add to the uncertainty. Despite these short-term pressures, the underlying institutional interest and the potential for ETF approvals continue to provide a bullish undercurrent.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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