News: Bitcoin experienced a notable pullback, falling below $48,000 ahead of a significant options expiry, impacting altcoins like Polkadot negatively. Despite this short-term bearish pressure, long-term holder behavior remains relatively stable, and positive long-term momentum indicators suggest underlying strength. Developments in the Lightning Network and positive commentary from tech executives offer a bullish long-term outlook, while regulatory news regarding ETFs remains a mixed bag. Mining stocks are also under pressure due to Bitcoin's price action.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "Clearer regulatory pathways for stablecoins are essential for institutional adoption and market grow"}