News: The crypto market is experiencing significant downward pressure today, with Bitcoin falling below $40,000 for the first time since September, nearing a bearish 'death cross' technical indicator. This decline is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate hikes and potential balance sheet reduction, leading to a strengthening dollar and a 'risk-off' sentiment across markets. Record outflows from digital asset funds further underscore institutional bearishness. While some analysts suggest long-term benefits for miners from the current slump, the immediate outlook remains bearish.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 15% | Base 35% | Bear 50%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: SELL
Long-term: HOLD
{"sentiment": "bearish", "price_direction": "down", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.6, "key_reason": "The breach of the $40,000 level, coupled with hawkish Fed commentary, signals immediate bearish pres"}