News: Bitcoin remains range-bound below $40K, reflecting market indecision influenced by geopolitical tensions and upcoming central bank decisions. High US inflation data (7.9%) reinforces expectations of aggressive Fed rate hikes, creating a bearish macro environment. However, positive developments like increased crypto donations to Ukraine, institutional investment in Web3, and enhanced crypto payment support from Stripe offer some bullish counter-narratives. The reduction in Ethereum gas fees is also a positive for the network's usability.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 35% | Base 40% | Bear 25%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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