News: Bitcoin showed resilience, breaking above $30,000, primarily driven by a decline in global bond yields and weaker Chinese trade data. This macroeconomic shift appears to be a stronger short-term catalyst than the PayPal stablecoin launch, which elicited a tepid market response. Institutional interest remains a key long-term driver, with significant developments in the ETF space, including Valkyrie's amendment to include Ether futures and positive sentiment from industry leaders like Cathie Wood and Mike Novogratz regarding potential ETF approvals. Meanwhile, rising dormant Bitcoin supply suggests reduced selling pressure, supporting a bullish outlook.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 60% | Base 30% | Bear 10%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: BUY
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.6499999999999999, "key_reason": "The filing of a spot Bitcoin ETF by BlackRock, a major institutional player, significantly increases"}