News: Bitcoin experienced a notable surge, breaking above $8,500, driven by renewed optimism around potential ETF approvals and strong institutional trading volumes in futures markets. However, the SEC's decision to postpone ETF reviews until September introduces a significant near-term risk, potentially leading to price consolidation or a pullback. Meanwhile, positive regulatory signals from India regarding crypto payments and high-profile endorsements like Alexis Ohanian's price prediction contribute to a mixed but cautiously optimistic sentiment. The upcoming CME futures expiration also adds a layer of potential volatility.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 50% | Base 30% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "high", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.55, "key_reason": "The SEC's stance that Bitcoin and Ether are not securities is a major regulatory positive, reducing "}