News: Bitcoin is showing mixed signals today, attempting to break above $9,000 but facing resistance and falling back. Geopolitical tensions continue to provide a bullish macro backdrop, while increased insurance coverage from Gemini enhances market security. However, the failure to hold key resistance levels and the retraction of a tax payment proposal in New Hampshire introduce some short-term bearish elements. Overall, the market is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on whether Bitcoin can sustain upward momentum.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 55% | Base 30% | Bear 15%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "low", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.575, "key_reason": "The discussion around national cryptocurrencies and the use of hedging by miners points to a growing"}