News: Bitcoin shows resilience, trading near $11,500 after a weekend rally, with technical indicators suggesting potential for further upside. However, overbought conditions and key resistance levels present a risk of volatility. Macroeconomic factors, including the dollar's strength and evolving Fed rate cut expectations, are influencing gold prices and could indirectly impact Bitcoin. The ongoing discussion around Facebook's Libra and its regulatory implications adds another layer of uncertainty to the short-term outlook.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 55% | Base 30% | Bear 15%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.575, "key_reason": "The halving event directly impacts Bitcoin's supply dynamics, creating scarcity. This scarcity is a "}