News: Bitcoin experienced a mixed trading day on July 3rd, closing slightly down and failing to break key resistance levels. The market sentiment appears cautious, with recent price action showing a struggle to maintain upward momentum. News regarding fraud charges against Nigerian nationals introduces a layer of regulatory uncertainty, while the ongoing trend of Bitcoin being held long-term and institutional interest in ETFs remain positive long-term signals. The halving event continues to be a fundamental bullish driver.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "The halving event inherently reduces the new supply of Bitcoin, a fundamental driver of its scarcity"}