News: Today's market is dominated by mixed signals. Cooler-than-expected US inflation data initially boosted Bitcoin and risk assets, reviving hopes for Fed rate cuts. However, the Federal Reserve's subsequent announcement of only one projected rate cut this year introduced a hawkish tone, causing Bitcoin to give back some of its earlier gains. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw their first outflows after a long streak of inflows, indicating a potential short-term cooling of demand. Political memecoins are also experiencing sharp declines amid the broader market selloff.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "The halving event directly impacts Bitcoin's supply dynamics, a fundamental driver of its price. Pas"}