News: Bitcoin experienced a bearish close to the week, falling below key support levels and continuing a near-term bearish trend. However, positive long-term signals include the launch of regulated Bitcoin funds in Hong Kong and Coinbase's strategic hire for institutional coverage, indicating growing adoption. The potential influx of retail capital from US stimulus checks offers a short-term bullish catalyst. Regulatory approvals for new Bitcoin derivatives products also add to the positive sentiment. Macroeconomic factors, particularly global stimulus measures, are increasingly seen as a bullish driver for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, potentially overshadowing the upcoming halving.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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