News: Bitcoin experienced a notable surge, reaching its highest price in over a month, driven by optimism surrounding potential ETF approvals and seasonal factors. However, this bullish momentum is tempered by rising Treasury yields, which are acting as a headwind for risk assets. The launch of Ether futures ETFs saw lukewarm investor interest, with low trading volumes, indicating a cautious short-term sentiment for altcoins. The ongoing FTX fraud trial of Sam Bankman-Fried adds a layer of uncertainty and potential regulatory scrutiny to the market.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "A decrease in active supply suggests holders are less willing to sell, indicating strong conviction "}