News: Bitcoin is showing resilience, trading above $21,000, buoyed by positive sentiment in traditional markets and anticipation of upcoming inflation data. The Ethereum Merge is nearing completion, a significant event for the crypto ecosystem that could boost overall sentiment. However, concerns remain regarding the potential impact of inflation data on Federal Reserve policy, which could introduce volatility. Institutional activity, such as Tesla's reduction in BTC holdings and proposed EU regulations on bank crypto exposure, presents mixed signals for the long term.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: HOLD
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "sideways", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "The bankruptcy of a major lender like Celsius signals a significant deleveraging event in the crypto"}