News: Bitcoin is consolidating around the $3,900-$4,000 range, facing resistance at the latter. The SEC chairman's confirmation that Ethereum is not a security provides regulatory clarity, a bullish signal for the broader market. Meanwhile, institutional developments like Coinbase's OTC trade from cold storage and Nasdaq licensing surveillance tech to a crypto startup indicate growing infrastructure and confidence. However, a critical report from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision labeling crypto assets as failing as money and digital gold introduces a bearish element, suggesting potential regulatory headwinds.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "The involvement of pension funds and other institutional investors in a significant funding round fo"}