News: The crypto market is showing mixed signals today. Long-term, the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption, as highlighted by BlackRock's CEO's sentiment and increased CME futures volume, remain strong bullish drivers. However, regulatory headwinds, exemplified by eToro delisting tokens deemed securities by the SEC, introduce uncertainty. Short-term, the Fitch downgrade of US debt rating is creating a bearish macro environment, impacting risk assets. Conversely, MicroStrategy's planned Bitcoin purchase and the race for Ether ETFs are providing bullish counter-momentum. The Litecoin halving is a notable protocol event with uncertain immediate price impact.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.525, "key_reason": "The endorsement from a major institutional player like BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, signals a signif"}