News: Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback to $11.8K, breaking below key moving averages, indicating short-term bearish sentiment. However, broader sentiment remains bullish with exchange reserves at a 21-month low, suggesting strong holder conviction. Macro factors like a weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions continue to support Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. Institutional interest is also growing with key hires and venture capital firm expansions. Mining operations in China are facing disruptions due to floods, but the overall impact on price is currently limited.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 55% | Base 35% | Bear 10%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.575, "key_reason": "Institutional forecasts like Bitwise's, combined with a weak global economy and potential for market"}