News: Bitcoin experienced a notable price drop today, falling below $21,000 following a major announcement from the US Department of Justice regarding a crackdown on an illicit crypto exchange. This regulatory action, coupled with ongoing concerns about the US economy and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, has dampened market sentiment. However, there are also signs of potential thawing in the 'crypto winter,' with Bitcoin's price up significantly year-to-date, attributed to easing inflation and potential Fed rate slowdowns. Meanwhile, reports of Genesis Global Capital preparing for bankruptcy continue to exert bearish pressure, highlighting the market's sensitivity to both macroeconomic factors and institutional distress.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 30% | Bear 30%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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