News: Bitcoin's price action is currently influenced by a confluence of factors. The long-term outlook remains strongly bullish, primarily driven by the successful launch and sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are increasing institutional adoption and accessibility. The upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April is also a significant long-term bullish catalyst due to its supply-reducing nature. In the short term, however, recent U.S. inflation data showing higher-than-expected CPI has introduced some bearish sentiment, dampening expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts and causing minor price dips. Additionally, the impending distribution of Bitcoin from Mt. Gox repayments poses a potential short-term selling pressure risk. Despite these short-term headwinds, the overwhelming institutional interest and the fundamental supply shock from the halving suggest a robust upward trend is likely to persist.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 60% | Base 30% | Bear 10%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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