News: Bitcoin experienced a significant downturn on May 21st, falling by nearly 5% and breaking key support levels, indicating bearish short-term sentiment. Ethereum also saw a notable decline, mirroring Bitcoin's weakness. Despite this, there's underlying optimism from figures like Alexis Ohanian about a 'crypto spring,' and positive developments in regulatory clarity at the state level in Louisiana. The anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza Day is a cultural marker but unlikely to drive immediate price action.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "high", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "The halving event is a fundamental supply shock that has historically preceded significant price inc"}