News: Bitcoin stabilized around the $40,000 support level, showing signs of short-term oversold conditions. However, high inflation data (CPI at 8.5%) continues to be a major concern, increasing the likelihood of aggressive Fed tightening, which creates a mixed outlook. While some altcoins are outperforming and institutional interest remains, the broader market sentiment is cautious due to macroeconomic headwinds. The potential for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is a significant bullish factor, but regulatory hurdles persist. Technicals suggest a critical juncture for Bitcoin, with a breakdown below $40K posing a significant downside risk.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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