News: Bitcoin is consolidating around $41,000, showing indecision amid mixed signals. Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell have strengthened the dollar and pressured risk assets, contributing to outflows from crypto funds. However, institutional developments like Goldman Sachs' first OTC crypto trade and positive CME futures data offer some bullish undertones. Geopolitical tensions remain a background risk, while technical indicators suggest limited downside potential in the immediate term.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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