News: The crypto market is experiencing mixed signals. Long-term, regulatory developments in China and South Korea, alongside institutional interest from BlackRock and potential entry of George Soros, suggest evolving market structures. However, negative sentiment from figures like Nouriel Roubini and the impact of Google's ad ban continue to weigh. Short-term, the release of the first Lightning Network wallet is a positive infrastructure development, while currency market volatility due to trade war rhetoric and upcoming NFP data could influence risk appetite. Regulatory actions in India are a clear bearish short-term signal.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "neutral", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.5, "key_reason": "A major central bank's explicit rejection of Bitcoin as a payment method and ongoing crackdown signi"}