News: Bitcoin experienced a mixed day, showing a 3% rally but failing to break key resistance levels, indicating continued short-term volatility. The post-halving environment is impacting miner revenue and hash rates, with older equipment becoming unprofitable. Macroeconomic factors, such as the potential for negative interest rates globally, offer a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin as a potential hedge. Institutional developments, like the launch of a regulated Bitcoin fund in Hong Kong and venture funding for trading services, also point to growing adoption.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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