News: Bitcoin and Ether are showing mixed signals, with a weakening correlation between the two suggesting a potential regime change in the crypto market. On-chain metrics like the number of wallets holding a full Bitcoin are positive, indicating sustained retail interest. However, upcoming SEC enforcement actions against Coinbase and ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations introduce significant regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainty. The market is currently navigating these conflicting signals, with a slight bearish bias due to immediate regulatory and macro concerns, but underlying adoption trends remain supportive.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 40% | Base 40% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: HOLD
Long-term: BUY
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