News: Bitcoin is showing resilience around the $19.5K mark despite bearish macro conditions, buoyed by a broader crypto market rally and positive U.S. equity performance driven by strong earnings. However, regulatory scrutiny on bankrupt crypto entities like Three Arrows Capital and headwinds for crypto-focused financial institutions like Silvergate introduce short-term uncertainty. The growing popularity of cash-margined futures and increasing adoption in regions like Latin America offer long-term bullish signals, while Ethereum's upcoming upgrade adds a positive catalyst for the broader ecosystem.

Market Probabilities: 
Bull 45% | Base 35% | Bear 20%

Recommendations: 
Short-term: BUY
Long-term: BUY
{"sentiment": "bullish", "price_direction": "up", "impact_strength": "medium", "timeframe": "medium_term", "confidence": 0.55, "key_reason": "The persistent hawkishness from the Federal Reserve directly impacts risk assets like Bitcoin. Highe"}