Gatwick Airport has submitted plans to make its “reserve runway” a second runway. It’s hardly surprising. The world’s busiest single runway airport has the worst punctuality of all European airports so far this summer, according to Eurocontrol, which manages European airspace. Converting the reserve runway, which is currently used for emergencies, would not only improve punctuality but also increase capacity by 60 per cent, enabling the airport to handle 75 million passengers a year, up from 46.5 million in 2019. It would also create 3,000 jobs and inject £1 billion a year into the local economy.
But, if recent history is anything to go by, Gatwick’s majority owner, France’s Vinci Airports, which bought a controlling stake for £2.9 billion in 2019, might as well give up on the £2.2 billion expansion plans now. No new large runway has been opened in the south east for more than a generation – and growing opposition to airport expansion means none probably will. So says a former boss of Gatwick, Paul Griffiths, the Briton who now runs the world’s busiest international hub, Dubai international.
“I see no realistic prospect of new runways at any of the major south-east hubs. Can you imagine any politician putting themselves in the crosshairs of Just Stop Oil and other environmental campaigners? The opposition in the courts, not to mention the disruption on the ground, over years and years would be far too politically costly.”
It’s hard to disagree – if Heathrow’s recent history is anything to go by. Many airlines and politicians have been pressing for a third runway at the west London hub, Europe’s busiest, for decades to increase passenger capacity to 142 million a year, compared with 81 million in 2019. One was originally approved in 2003 but the coalition government led by David Cameron withdrew support in 2015 after an outcry by green campaigners – and Boris Johnson who promised to lie in front of the bulldozers.
Theresa May’s government reversed that decision in 2018. Two years later the Court of Appeal ruled a third runway would be incompatible with Britain’s climate commitments. That decision was overturned by the Supreme Court later in the same year. Heathrow’s outgoing CEO, John Holland Kaye, has signalled the runway development will resume, telling the Financial Times he is looking into “what it would take to restart the planning process”. Few expect it to get beyond the drawing board.
Other airport expansion schemes have come and gone. This year should have marked the tenth anniversary of the opening of a new runway at Stansted. That was the timetable envisaged under a review of airport capacity in 2003 by Alastair (now Lord) Darling, the then transport secretary. Nobody talks any more about Boris Island, the scheme the former prime minister and London mayor floated in 2016 to build a new airport in the Thames estuary.
The biggest losers in our airport stagnation are passengers. Flight cancellations and delays are at record levels. This is partly down to airlines trimming their schedules in response to technical issues, staff shortages and strikes by air traffic controllers on the continent. But it’s also partly due to the fact that Heathrow operates at or near 100 per cent capacity, which means the moment operations are disrupted by, say, bad weather, the knock-on effect can be huge. On a typical day the airport handles 1,250 flights — around 70 an hour. One takes off or lands every 45 seconds.
UK Plc is losing out, too. “If we don’t expand our only hub airport, we’re going to be flying through Paris to get to global markets,” says Holland-Kaye. Gatwick’s CEO, Stewart Wingate, agrees airport expansion is needed to “provide vital new international connections to support ‘Global Britain’.” Before the pandemic travel and tourism accounted for 11 per cent of the UK’s economy, or about £231 billion, and supported 4.2 million jobs.
Rival European players have forged ahead to take advantage of Britain’s woes. Frankfurt International completed its fourth runway in 2011. Barcelona got a third in 2018 and Munich’s third is destined for completion in 2028.
Germany and France have a far larger land mass than the UK and lower population density which makes it easier to develop airports. But there is also a greater political appetite for big infrastructure projects. “We’ve been a bit lily-livered in the UK,” says Griffiths. “We haven’t had the political stomach for lots of the debates. Look how long it has taken to get the HS2 fast rail link approved and even now we don’t know where it will end up in the north and whether it will end in Euston in London. Compare that to the way France has completed its TGV fast train network.”
There are other reasons for Britain’s airport stagnation, some of which might not be immediately obvious. While you might think that airlines would welcome new runways, not all do. British Airways has half the takeoff and landing slots at Heathrow – a highly profitable near-monopoly – which it would lose if there were a third runway. The same applies to Ryanair which dominates Stansted.
Is there any hope? Heathrow could become more efficient with a new terminal. Surinder Arora, the founder and chairman of the Arora Group, one of the UK’s largest private hotel owner-operators, wants to build a new Terminal 6 on land between T5 and the M25 motorway. “Heathrow and UK Plc need more airport capacity to stay ahead of Dubai, Singapore and Frankfurt,” he says. He is committed to spending £100m on plans for the proposed Western Hub and has hired consultants Scott Brownrigg. Quieter aircraft might mean Heathrow’s curfew time, which currently runs from around 11pm to 6am, could be reduced, increasing the number of flights each day.
New long-haul, fuel-efficient twin engine jets can, for the first time, connect almost any two points on the planet. Airlines are moving away from hub and spoke models to direct point to point services. This raises the prospect of more flights from Britain’s regional airports to more destinations worldwide, taking the pressure off London’s hubs. Birmingham could even expand. It has enough land for a second runway and very fast rail links to London, Griffiths suggests. Before long passengers arriving in Britain may hear the words: Welcome to London Birmingham!