2023 Women's World Cup odds: Bettors cash in on New Zealand upsetting Norway
It didn’t take long for an upset to register in the Women’s World Cup odds market. In fact, it took only two matches to get a surprise result, coming on the 32-team tournament’s first day.
Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sports, and BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee, discuss how the Day 1 upset impacted World Cup betting.
Underdog day
Norway entered the Group A match as a -250 favorite (bet $10 to win $14 total) on BetMGM’s three-way moneyline, on which bettors can wager on either team to win in 90 minutes plus injury time or wager on the game ending in a draw. On the flip side, New Zealand was a sizable +650 underdog (bet $10 to win $75 total).
"It was quite a shock to start the tournament," Magee said. "It feels like upsets of this magnitude in the tournament are few and far between."
The first half brought no scoring, but it didn’t take long into the second half for the host Football Ferns — Team Norway’s nickname — to tally the match’s only goal. Hannah Wilkinson took a perfectly placed Jacqui Hand cross and buried the ball into the back of the net in the 48th minute.
New Zealand’s 1-0 lead held up the rest of the way, with Norway’s best chance — a Tuva Hansen shot in the 83rd minute — deflecting off the crossbar.
No place like home
Home-country fans reveled in the upset, as did any savvy bettors who took New Zealand. Caesars Sports apparently had quite a few customers banking on the big underdog.
When Caesars first posted moneyline odds, New Zealand was +950 to win the match, meaning a $100 bet would win $950. By the time the match began, Caesars customers had helped shorten New Zealand’s price to +650, with Norway a -250 favorite and draw +333.
"As is normal in a major soccer competition, the underdog winning the match is not a great outcome for sportsbooks," Pullen said. "People are enamored with the huge price on the underdog and love that return on investment. It was a small loss [for us] with the Ferns’ win over Norway. Nothing major, but a good win for the bettors indeed."
WynnBet trader Dominick DeBonis echoed Pullen's comments.
"We got whacked pretty good on the result, relative to the handle. That's to be expected on big ‘dogs who are playing a team that isn’t the U.S. Women's National Team," DeBonis said.
BetMGM beats the bettors
Likewise, BetMGM’s odds prior to kickoff had New Zealand a +650 underdog. But the result worked out much better behind the counter for BetMGM, with the large majority of tickets and dollars on favored Norway.
"New Zealand was a big winner for us in this match," Magee said. "Lots of money came in on Norway. New Zealand [winning] broke up a ton of parlays."
Indeed, throwing Norway into a parlay likely seemed reasonable for most bettors. In the 2019 World Cup, Norway reached the quarterfinals before losing to England. Prior to Thursday’s opening match, BetMGM had Norway as the +5000 12th choice in odds to win the World Cup, while New Zealand was a distant +200000 (200-1) to win the tournament.
Now, Norway will have to scramble just to advance from Group A, while New Zealand, for the moment, is favored to win the group. New Zealand is playing in its sixth Women’s World Cup, but Thursday’s upset marked the team’s first-ever World Cup victory.
"This is definitely a pleasant surprise for the book on this one," Magee said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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