Former President Donald Trump on Friday received some bad news from the firm of his own pollster about the 2024 presidential race.
A Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll surveying voters in 40 competitive House districts across the nation found that while President Joe Biden has an edge over Trump in those crucial swing districts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a bigger threat to the incumbent.
While Biden led Trump 47 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, Biden and DeSantis were to be tied at 45 percent. Trump and DeSantis are both gunning to be the Republican nominee. DeSantis has been the only other GOP candidate to break away from the crowded field, but polls continue to give Trump a wide lead over DeSantis, suggesting that he's still the favorite among Republican voters.
Participants were surveyed by Fabrizio Ward, a firm headed by Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward. Fabrizio, who is credited with writing an influential internal memo that helped Trump switch his 2016 campaign strategy two weeks before Election Day, was Trump's chief pollster in 2016 and 2020. He is currently a pollster with MAGA Inc., a Trump-aligned super political action committee.
Newsweek reached out to Trump's campaign for comment.
The poll, commissioned by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), was conducted between July 5 and 11 and surveyed 1,752 likely general election voters in House districts that the Cook Political Report rated as "Lean" or "Toss Up" as of July 5. It has a 2.83+/- margin of error among participants 18 and older and for those 50 and above.
Women over 50 in those competitive districts also seemed to favor Biden over Trump and DeSantis over Trump. When Trump and Biden go head to head, 48 percent back the Democrat, compared to the 44 percent who support Trump. But in a Biden-DeSantis matchup, the two tie at 46 percent among women over 50.
Although the majority of voters seemed to prefer Biden over Trump, the former president did better among four nonpartisan demographics than Biden. Trump had a 17-point lead over Biden among rural voters, an 11-point lead among those without a college degree, an 2-point lead among white voters.
Trump also had an 11-point lead over Biden when it came to voters age 50 to 64, but Biden did better with voters 65 and above, earning 50 percent support to Trump's 42 percent.
"We know that voters age 50-plus will make up the majority of the electorate in 2024," Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer, said in a Friday press release. "The fact that this group is divided shows that no one running for office should take them for granted or write them off. Candidates who want to win need to connect with them and address their concerns."
The discrepancy between voters 50 to 64 and those 65 and up seemed to remain in a hypothetical matchup between Biden and DeSantis, with the earlier group favoring the Republican and the latter group favoring the Democrat. DeSantis had a 15-point lead over Biden among the 50-64 age group, while Biden say a 4-point lead over DeSantis among those 65 and above.