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byAK and the research community

Oct 27

Using Explainable AI and Transfer Learning to understand and predict the maintenance of Atlantic blocking with limited observational data

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 12, 2024

Recalibrating Fully Convolutional Networks with Spatial and Channel 'Squeeze & Excitation' Blocks

In a wide range of semantic segmentation tasks, fully convolutional neural networks (F-CNNs) have been successfully leveraged to achieve state-of-the-art performance. Architectural innovations of F-CNNs have mainly been on improving spatial encoding or network connectivity to aid gradient flow. In this article, we aim towards an alternate direction of recalibrating the learned feature maps adaptively; boosting meaningful features while suppressing weak ones. The recalibration is achieved by simple computational blocks that can be easily integrated in F-CNNs architectures. We draw our inspiration from the recently proposed 'squeeze & excitation' (SE) modules for channel recalibration for image classification. Towards this end, we introduce three variants of SE modules for segmentation, (i) squeezing spatially and exciting channel-wise, (ii) squeezing channel-wise and exciting spatially and (iii) joint spatial and channel 'squeeze & excitation'. We effectively incorporate the proposed SE blocks in three state-of-the-art F-CNNs and demonstrate a consistent improvement of segmentation accuracy on three challenging benchmark datasets. Importantly, SE blocks only lead to a minimal increase in model complexity of about 1.5%, while the Dice score increases by 4-9% in the case of U-Net. Hence, we believe that SE blocks can be an integral part of future F-CNN architectures.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 23, 2018