Daily Papers

Recent years have seen a paradigm shift in NLP towards using pretrained language models ({PLM}) for a wide range of tasks. However, there are many difficult design decisions to represent structures (e.g. tagged text, coreference chains) in a way such that they can be captured by PLMs. Prior work on structured prediction with PLMs typically flattens the structured output into a sequence, which limits the quality of structural information being learned and leads to inferior performance compared to classic discriminative models. In this work, we describe an approach to model structures as sequences of actions in an autoregressive manner with PLMs, allowing in-structure dependencies to be learned without any loss. Our approach achieves the new state-of-the-art on all the structured prediction tasks we looked at, namely, named entity recognition, end-to-end relation extraction, and coreference resolution.

We introduce SceneScript, a method that directly produces full scene models as a sequence of structured language commands using an autoregressive, token-based approach. Our proposed scene representation is inspired by recent successes in transformers & LLMs, and departs from more traditional methods which commonly describe scenes as meshes, voxel grids, point clouds or radiance fields. Our method infers the set of structured language commands directly from encoded visual data using a scene language encoder-decoder architecture. To train SceneScript, we generate and release a large-scale synthetic dataset called Aria Synthetic Environments consisting of 100k high-quality in-door scenes, with photorealistic and ground-truth annotated renders of egocentric scene walkthroughs. Our method gives state-of-the art results in architectural layout estimation, and competitive results in 3D object detection. Lastly, we explore an advantage for SceneScript, which is the ability to readily adapt to new commands via simple additions to the structured language, which we illustrate for tasks such as coarse 3D object part reconstruction.

Both zero-shot and tuning-based customized text-to-image (CT2I) generation have made significant progress for storytelling content creation. In contrast, research on customized text-to-video (CT2V) generation remains relatively limited. Existing zero-shot CT2V methods suffer from poor generalization, while another line of work directly combining tuning-based T2I models with temporal motion modules often leads to the loss of structural and texture information. To bridge this gap, we propose an autoregressive structure and texture propagation module (STPM), which extracts key structural and texture features from the reference subject and injects them autoregressively into each video frame to enhance consistency. Additionally, we introduce a test-time reward optimization (TTRO) method to further refine fine-grained details. Quantitative and qualitative experiments validate the effectiveness of STPM and TTRO, demonstrating improvements of 7.8 and 13.1 in CLIP-I and DINO consistency metrics over the baseline, respectively.

We present Chain-of-Action (CoA), a novel visuo-motor policy paradigm built upon Trajectory Autoregressive Modeling. Unlike conventional approaches that predict next step action(s) forward, CoA generates an entire trajectory by explicit backward reasoning with task-specific goals through an action-level Chain-of-Thought (CoT) process. This process is unified within a single autoregressive structure: (1) the first token corresponds to a stable keyframe action that encodes the task-specific goals; and (2) subsequent action tokens are generated autoregressively, conditioned on the initial keyframe and previously predicted actions. This backward action reasoning enforces a global-to-local structure, allowing each local action to be tightly constrained by the final goal. To further realize the action reasoning structure, CoA incorporates four complementary designs: continuous action token representation; dynamic stopping for variable-length trajectory generation; reverse temporal ensemble; and multi-token prediction to balance action chunk modeling with global structure. As a result, CoA gives strong spatial generalization capabilities while preserving the flexibility and simplicity of a visuo-motor policy. Empirically, we observe CoA achieves the state-of-the-art performance across 60 RLBench tasks and 8 real-world manipulation tasks.

Recent advancements in music generation have garnered significant attention, yet existing approaches face critical limitations. Some current generative models can only synthesize either the vocal track or the accompaniment track. While some models can generate combined vocal and accompaniment, they typically rely on meticulously designed multi-stage cascading architectures and intricate data pipelines, hindering scalability. Additionally, most systems are restricted to generating short musical segments rather than full-length songs. Furthermore, widely used language model-based methods suffer from slow inference speeds. To address these challenges, we propose DiffRhythm, the first latent diffusion-based song generation model capable of synthesizing complete songs with both vocal and accompaniment for durations of up to 4m45s in only ten seconds, maintaining high musicality and intelligibility. Despite its remarkable capabilities, DiffRhythm is designed to be simple and elegant: it eliminates the need for complex data preparation, employs a straightforward model structure, and requires only lyrics and a style prompt during inference. Additionally, its non-autoregressive structure ensures fast inference speeds. This simplicity guarantees the scalability of DiffRhythm. Moreover, we release the complete training code along with the pre-trained model on large-scale data to promote reproducibility and further research.

The creation of 3D assets with explicit, editable part structures is crucial for advancing interactive applications, yet most generative methods produce only monolithic shapes, limiting their utility. We introduce OmniPart, a novel framework for part-aware 3D object generation designed to achieve high semantic decoupling among components while maintaining robust structural cohesion. OmniPart uniquely decouples this complex task into two synergistic stages: (1) an autoregressive structure planning module generates a controllable, variable-length sequence of 3D part bounding boxes, critically guided by flexible 2D part masks that allow for intuitive control over part decomposition without requiring direct correspondences or semantic labels; and (2) a spatially-conditioned rectified flow model, efficiently adapted from a pre-trained holistic 3D generator, synthesizes all 3D parts simultaneously and consistently within the planned layout. Our approach supports user-defined part granularity, precise localization, and enables diverse downstream applications. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OmniPart achieves state-of-the-art performance, paving the way for more interpretable, editable, and versatile 3D content.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

State of the art (SOTA) neural text to speech (TTS) models can generate natural-sounding synthetic voices. These models are characterized by large memory footprints and substantial number of operations due to the long-standing focus on speech quality with cloud inference in mind. Neural TTS models are generally not designed to perform standalone speech syntheses on resource-constrained and no Internet access edge devices. In this work, an efficient neural TTS called EfficientSpeech that synthesizes speech on an ARM CPU in real-time is proposed. EfficientSpeech uses a shallow non-autoregressive pyramid-structure transformer forming a U-Network. EfficientSpeech has 266k parameters and consumes 90 MFLOPS only or about 1% of the size and amount of computation in modern compact models such as Mixer-TTS. EfficientSpeech achieves an average mel generation real-time factor of 104.3 on an RPi4. Human evaluation shows only a slight degradation in audio quality as compared to FastSpeech2.

Neural waveform models such as the WaveNet are used in many recent text-to-speech systems, but the original WaveNet is quite slow in waveform generation because of its autoregressive (AR) structure. Although faster non-AR models were recently reported, they may be prohibitively complicated due to the use of a distilling training method and the blend of other disparate training criteria. This study proposes a non-AR neural source-filter waveform model that can be directly trained using spectrum-based training criteria and the stochastic gradient descent method. Given the input acoustic features, the proposed model first uses a source module to generate a sine-based excitation signal and then uses a filter module to transform the excitation signal into the output speech waveform. Our experiments demonstrated that the proposed model generated waveforms at least 100 times faster than the AR WaveNet and the quality of its synthetic speech is close to that of speech generated by the AR WaveNet. Ablation test results showed that both the sine-wave excitation signal and the spectrum-based training criteria were essential to the performance of the proposed model.

Unified generation of sequence and structure for scientific data (e.g., materials, molecules, proteins) is a critical task. Existing approaches primarily rely on either autoregressive sequence models or diffusion models, each offering distinct advantages and facing notable limitations. Autoregressive models, such as GPT, Llama, and Phi-4, have demonstrated remarkable success in natural language generation and have been extended to multimodal tasks (e.g., image, video, and audio) using advanced encoders like VQ-VAE to represent complex modalities as discrete sequences. However, their direct application to scientific domains is challenging due to the high precision requirements and the diverse nature of scientific data. On the other hand, diffusion models excel at generating high-dimensional scientific data, such as protein, molecule, and material structures, with remarkable accuracy. Yet, their inability to effectively model sequences limits their potential as general-purpose multimodal foundation models. To address these challenges, we propose UniGenX, a unified framework that combines autoregressive next-token prediction with conditional diffusion models. This integration leverages the strengths of autoregressive models to ease the training of conditional diffusion models, while diffusion-based generative heads enhance the precision of autoregressive predictions. We validate the effectiveness of UniGenX on material and small molecule generation tasks, achieving a significant leap in state-of-the-art performance for material crystal structure prediction and establishing new state-of-the-art results for small molecule structure prediction, de novo design, and conditional generation. Notably, UniGenX demonstrates significant improvements, especially in handling long sequences for complex structures, showcasing its efficacy as a versatile tool for scientific data generation.

The majority of language model training builds on imitation learning. It covers pretraining, supervised fine-tuning, and affects the starting conditions for reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). The simplicity and scalability of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for next token prediction led to its role as predominant paradigm. However, the broader field of imitation learning can more effectively utilize the sequential structure underlying autoregressive generation. We focus on investigating the inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) perspective to imitation, extracting rewards and directly optimizing sequences instead of individual token likelihoods and evaluate its benefits for fine-tuning large language models. We provide a new angle, reformulating inverse soft-Q-learning as a temporal difference regularized extension of MLE. This creates a principled connection between MLE and IRL and allows trading off added complexity with increased performance and diversity of generations in the supervised fine-tuning (SFT) setting. We find clear advantages for IRL-based imitation, in particular for retaining diversity while maximizing task performance, rendering IRL a strong alternative on fixed SFT datasets even without online data generation. Our analysis of IRL-extracted reward functions further indicates benefits for more robust reward functions via tighter integration of supervised and preference-based LLM post-training.

The generation of plausible crystal structures is often the first step in predicting the structure and properties of a material from its chemical composition. Quickly generating and predicting inorganic crystal structures is important for the discovery of new materials, which can target applications such as energy or electronic devices. However, most current methods for crystal structure prediction are computationally expensive, slowing the pace of innovation. Seeding structure prediction algorithms with quality generated candidates can overcome a major bottleneck. Here, we introduce CrystaLLM, a methodology for the versatile generation of crystal structures, based on the autoregressive large language modeling (LLM) of the Crystallographic Information File (CIF) format. Trained on millions of CIF files, CrystaLLM focuses on modeling crystal structures through text. CrystaLLM can produce plausible crystal structures for a wide range of inorganic compounds unseen in training, as demonstrated by ab initio simulations. The integration with predictors of formation energy permits the use of a Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithm to improve the generation of meaningful structures. Our approach challenges conventional representations of crystals, and demonstrates the potential of LLMs for learning effective 'world models' of crystal chemistry, which will lead to accelerated discovery and innovation in materials science.

State-of-the-art text-to-image models excel at photorealistic rendering but often struggle to capture the layout and object relationships implied by complex prompts. Scene graphs provide a natural structural prior, yet previous graph-guided approaches have typically relied on heavy GAN or diffusion pipelines, which lag behind modern autoregressive architectures in both speed and fidelity. We introduce SATURN (Structured Arrangement of Triplets for Unified Rendering Networks), a lightweight extension to VAR-CLIP that translates a scene graph into a salience-ordered token sequence, enabling a frozen CLIP-VQ-VAE backbone to interpret graph structure while fine-tuning only the VAR transformer. On the Visual Genome dataset, SATURN reduces FID from 56.45% to 21.62% and increases the Inception Score from 16.03 to 24.78, outperforming prior methods such as SG2IM and SGDiff without requiring extra modules or multi-stage training. Qualitative results further confirm improvements in object count fidelity and spatial relation accuracy, showing that SATURN effectively combines structural awareness with state-of-the-art autoregressive fidelity.

Autoregressive language models demonstrate excellent performance in various scenarios. However, the inference efficiency is limited by its one-step-one-word generation mode, which has become a pressing problem recently as the models become increasingly larger. Speculative decoding employs a "draft and then verify" mechanism to allow multiple tokens to be generated in one step, realizing lossless acceleration. Existing methods mainly adopt fixed heuristic draft structures, which fail to adapt to different situations to maximize the acceptance length during verification. To alleviate this dilemma, we proposed OPT-Tree, an algorithm to construct adaptive and scalable draft trees. It searches the optimal tree structure that maximizes the mathematical expectation of the acceptance length in each decoding step. Experimental results reveal that OPT-Tree outperforms the existing draft structures and achieves a speed-up ratio of up to 3.2 compared with autoregressive decoding. If the draft model is powerful enough and the node budget is sufficient, it can generate more than ten tokens in a single step. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jikai0Wang/OPT-Tree.

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive reasoning capabilities, yet their direct application to NP-hard combinatorial problems (CPs) remains underexplored. In this work, we systematically investigate the reasoning abilities of LLMs on a variety of NP-hard combinatorial optimization tasks and introduce ACCORD: Autoregressive Constraint-satisfying generation for COmbinatorial optimization with Routing and Dynamic attention. ACCORD features a novel dataset representation and model architecture that leverage the autoregressive nature of LLMs to dynamically enforce feasibility constraints, coupled with attention-based routing to activate problem-specific LoRA modules. We also present the ACCORD-90k supervised dataset, covering six NP-hard combinatorial problems: TSP, VRP, Knapsack, FlowShop, JSSP, and BinPacking. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our ACCORD model, built on an 8B-parameter Llama backbone, consistently outperforms standard prompting and input-output methods, even when compared to much larger LLMs, such as gpt-4. Ablation studies further show that our output structure enhances solution feasibility. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large-scale, end-to-end framework for exploring the applications of LLMs to a broad spectrum of combinatorial optimization problems. The codes are publicly available at https://github.com/starjob42/ACCORD

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

Knowledge-intensive language tasks require NLP systems to both provide the correct answer and retrieve supporting evidence for it in a given corpus. Autoregressive language models are emerging as the de-facto standard for generating answers, with newer and more powerful systems emerging at an astonishing pace. In this paper we argue that all this (and future) progress can be directly applied to the retrieval problem with minimal intervention to the models' architecture. Previous work has explored ways to partition the search space into hierarchical structures and retrieve documents by autoregressively generating their unique identifier. In this work we propose an alternative that doesn't force any structure in the search space: using all ngrams in a passage as its possible identifiers. This setup allows us to use an autoregressive model to generate and score distinctive ngrams, that are then mapped to full passages through an efficient data structure. Empirically, we show this not only outperforms prior autoregressive approaches but also leads to an average improvement of at least 10 points over more established retrieval solutions for passage-level retrieval on the KILT benchmark, establishing new state-of-the-art downstream performance on some datasets, while using a considerably lighter memory footprint than competing systems. Code and pre-trained models at https://github.com/facebookresearch/SEAL.

Autoregressive transformer language models (LMs) possess strong syntactic abilities, often successfully handling phenomena from agreement to NPI licensing. However, the features they use to incrementally process language inputs are not well understood. In this paper, we fill this gap by studying the mechanisms underlying garden path sentence processing in LMs. We ask: (1) Do LMs use syntactic features or shallow heuristics to perform incremental sentence processing? (2) Do LMs represent only one potential interpretation, or multiple? and (3) Do LMs reanalyze or repair their initial incorrect representations? To address these questions, we use sparse autoencoders to identify interpretable features that determine which continuation - and thus which reading - of a garden path sentence the LM prefers. We find that while many important features relate to syntactic structure, some reflect syntactically irrelevant heuristics. Moreover, while most active features correspond to one reading of the sentence, some features correspond to the other, suggesting that LMs assign weight to both possibilities simultaneously. Finally, LMs do not re-use features from garden path sentence processing to answer follow-up questions.

Generating music with coherent structure, harmonious instrumental and vocal elements remains a significant challenge in song generation. Existing language models and diffusion-based methods often struggle to balance global coherence with local fidelity, resulting in outputs that lack musicality or suffer from incoherent progression and mismatched lyrics. This paper introduces SongBloom, a novel framework for full-length song generation that leverages an interleaved paradigm of autoregressive sketching and diffusion-based refinement. SongBloom employs an autoregressive diffusion model that combines the high fidelity of diffusion models with the scalability of language models. Specifically, it gradually extends a musical sketch from short to long and refines the details from coarse to fine-grained. The interleaved generation paradigm effectively integrates prior semantic and acoustic context to guide the generation process. Experimental results demonstrate that SongBloom outperforms existing methods across both subjective and objective metrics and achieves performance comparable to the state-of-the-art commercial music generation platforms. Audio samples are available on our demo page: https://cypress-yang.github.io/SongBloom\_demo.

We report a flexible language-model based deep learning strategy, applied here to solve complex forward and inverse problems in protein modeling, based on an attention neural network that integrates transformer and graph convolutional architectures in a causal multi-headed graph mechanism, to realize a generative pretrained model. The model is applied to predict secondary structure content (per-residue level and overall content), protein solubility, and sequencing tasks. Further trained on inverse tasks, the model is rendered capable of designing proteins with these properties as target features. The model is formulated as a general framework, completely prompt-based, and can be adapted for a variety of downstream tasks. We find that adding additional tasks yields emergent synergies that the model exploits in improving overall performance, beyond what would be possible by training a model on each dataset alone. Case studies are presented to validate the method, yielding protein designs specifically focused on structural proteins, but also exploring the applicability in the design of soluble, antimicrobial biomaterials. While our model is trained to ultimately perform 8 distinct tasks, with available datasets it can be extended to solve additional problems. In a broader sense, this work illustrates a form of multiscale modeling that relates a set of ultimate building blocks (here, byte-level utf8 characters) to complex output. This materiomic scheme captures complex emergent relationships between universal building block and resulting properties via a synergizing learning capacity to express a set of potentialities embedded in the knowledge used in training, via the interplay of universality and diversity.

Autoregressive models have achieved promising results in natural language processing. However, for image generation tasks, they encounter substantial challenges in effectively capturing long-range dependencies, managing computational costs, and most crucially, defining meaningful autoregressive sequences that reflect natural image hierarchies. To address these issues, we present Next-Frequency Image Generation (NFIG), a novel framework that decomposes the image generation process into multiple frequency-guided stages. Our approach first generates low-frequency components to establish global structure with fewer tokens, then progressively adds higher-frequency details, following the natural spectral hierarchy of images. This principled autoregressive sequence not only improves the quality of generated images by better capturing true causal relationships between image components, but also significantly reduces computational overhead during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFIG achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer steps, offering a more efficient solution for image generation, with 1.25times speedup compared to VAR-d20 while achieving better performance (FID: 2.81) on the ImageNet-256 benchmark. We hope that our insight of incorporating frequency-domain knowledge to guide autoregressive sequence design will shed light on future research. We will make our code publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

Generative models for structure-based drug design (SBDD) have shown promising results in recent years. Existing works mainly focus on how to generate molecules with higher binding affinity, ignoring the feasibility prerequisites for generated 3D poses and resulting in false positives. We conduct thorough studies on key factors of ill-conformational problems when applying autoregressive methods and diffusion to SBDD, including mode collapse and hybrid continuous-discrete space. In this paper, we introduce MolCRAFT, the first SBDD model that operates in the continuous parameter space, together with a novel noise reduced sampling strategy. Empirical results show that our model consistently achieves superior performance in binding affinity with more stable 3D structure, demonstrating our ability to accurately model interatomic interactions. To our best knowledge, MolCRAFT is the first to achieve reference-level Vina Scores (-6.59 kcal/mol) with comparable molecular size, outperforming other strong baselines by a wide margin (-0.84 kcal/mol). Code is available at https://github.com/AlgoMole/MolCRAFT.

Entities are at the center of how we represent and aggregate knowledge. For instance, Encyclopedias such as Wikipedia are structured by entities (e.g., one per Wikipedia article). The ability to retrieve such entities given a query is fundamental for knowledge-intensive tasks such as entity linking and open-domain question answering. Current approaches can be understood as classifiers among atomic labels, one for each entity. Their weight vectors are dense entity representations produced by encoding entity meta information such as their descriptions. This approach has several shortcomings: (i) context and entity affinity is mainly captured through a vector dot product, potentially missing fine-grained interactions; (ii) a large memory footprint is needed to store dense representations when considering large entity sets; (iii) an appropriately hard set of negative data has to be subsampled at training time. In this work, we propose GENRE, the first system that retrieves entities by generating their unique names, left to right, token-by-token in an autoregressive fashion. This mitigates the aforementioned technical issues since: (i) the autoregressive formulation directly captures relations between context and entity name, effectively cross encoding both; (ii) the memory footprint is greatly reduced because the parameters of our encoder-decoder architecture scale with vocabulary size, not entity count; (iii) the softmax loss is computed without subsampling negative data. We experiment with more than 20 datasets on entity disambiguation, end-to-end entity linking and document retrieval tasks, achieving new state-of-the-art or very competitive results while using a tiny fraction of the memory footprint of competing systems. Finally, we demonstrate that new entities can be added by simply specifying their names. Code and pre-trained models at https://github.com/facebookresearch/GENRE.

Autoregressive models have achieved remarkable success across various domains, yet their performance in 3D shape generation lags significantly behind that of diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce OctGPT, a novel multiscale autoregressive model for 3D shape generation that dramatically improves the efficiency and performance of prior 3D autoregressive approaches, while rivaling or surpassing state-of-the-art diffusion models. Our method employs a serialized octree representation to efficiently capture the hierarchical and spatial structures of 3D shapes. Coarse geometry is encoded via octree structures, while fine-grained details are represented by binary tokens generated using a vector quantized variational autoencoder (VQVAE), transforming 3D shapes into compact multiscale binary sequences suitable for autoregressive prediction. To address the computational challenges of handling long sequences, we incorporate octree-based transformers enhanced with 3D rotary positional encodings, scale-specific embeddings, and token-parallel generation schemes. These innovations reduce training time by 13 folds and generation time by 69 folds, enabling the efficient training of high-resolution 3D shapes, e.g.,1024^3, on just four NVIDIA 4090 GPUs only within days. OctGPT showcases exceptional versatility across various tasks, including text-, sketch-, and image-conditioned generation, as well as scene-level synthesis involving multiple objects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OctGPT accelerates convergence and improves generation quality over prior autoregressive methods, offering a new paradigm for high-quality, scalable 3D content creation.

Logic synthesis, a critical stage in electronic design automation (EDA), optimizes gate-level circuits to minimize power consumption and area occupancy in integrated circuits (ICs). Traditional logic synthesis tools rely on human-designed heuristics, often yielding suboptimal results. Although differentiable architecture search (DAS) has shown promise in generating circuits from truth tables, it faces challenges such as high computational complexity, convergence to local optima, and extensive hyperparameter tuning. Consequently, we propose a novel approach integrating conditional generative models with DAS for circuit generation. Our approach first introduces CircuitVQ, a circuit tokenizer trained based on our Circuit AutoEncoder We then develop CircuitAR, a masked autoregressive model leveraging CircuitVQ as the tokenizer. CircuitAR can generate preliminary circuit structures from truth tables, which guide DAS in producing functionally equivalent circuits. Notably, we observe the scalability and emergent capability in generating complex circuit structures of our CircuitAR models. Extensive experiments also show the superior performance of our method. This research bridges the gap between probabilistic generative models and precise circuit generation, offering a robust solution for logic synthesis.

In autoregressive (AR) image generation, models based on the 'next-token prediction' paradigm of LLMs have shown comparable performance to diffusion models by reducing inductive biases. However, directly applying LLMs to complex image generation can struggle with reconstructing the image's structure and details, impacting the generation's accuracy and stability. Additionally, the 'next-token prediction' paradigm in the AR model does not align with the contextual scanning and logical reasoning processes involved in human visual perception, limiting effective image generation. Prompt engineering, as a key technique for guiding LLMs, leverages specifically designed prompts to improve model performance on complex natural language processing (NLP) tasks, enhancing accuracy and stability of generation while maintaining contextual coherence and logical consistency, similar to human reasoning. Inspired by prompt engineering from the field of NLP, we propose Vision Full-view prompt (VF prompt) to enhance autoregressive image generation. Specifically, we design specialized image-related VF prompts for AR image generation to simulate the process of human image creation. This enhances contextual logic ability by allowing the model to first perceive overall distribution information before generating the image, and improve generation stability by increasing the inference steps. Compared to the AR method without VF prompts, our method shows outstanding performance and achieves an approximate improvement of 20%.

The vision community has started to build with the recently developed state space model, Mamba, as the new backbone for a range of tasks. This paper shows that Mamba's visual capability can be significantly enhanced through autoregressive pretraining, a direction not previously explored. Efficiency-wise, the autoregressive nature can well capitalize on the Mamba's unidirectional recurrent structure, enabling faster overall training speed compared to other training strategies like mask modeling. Performance-wise, autoregressive pretraining equips the Mamba architecture with markedly higher accuracy over its supervised-trained counterparts and, more importantly, successfully unlocks its scaling potential to large and even huge model sizes. For example, with autoregressive pretraining, a base-size Mamba attains 83.2\% ImageNet accuracy, outperforming its supervised counterpart by 2.0\%; our huge-size Mamba, the largest Vision Mamba to date, attains 85.0\% ImageNet accuracy (85.5\% when finetuned with 384times384 inputs), notably surpassing all other Mamba variants in vision. The code is available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/ARM.

Given an incomplete image without additional constraint, image inpainting natively allows for multiple solutions as long as they appear plausible. Recently, multiplesolution inpainting methods have been proposed and shown the potential of generating diverse results. However, these methods have difficulty in ensuring the quality of each solution, e.g. they produce distorted structure and/or blurry texture. We propose a two-stage model for diverse inpainting, where the first stage generates multiple coarse results each of which has a different structure, and the second stage refines each coarse result separately by augmenting texture. The proposed model is inspired by the hierarchical vector quantized variational auto-encoder (VQ-VAE), whose hierarchical architecture isentangles structural and textural information. In addition, the vector quantization in VQVAE enables autoregressive modeling of the discrete distribution over the structural information. Sampling from the distribution can easily generate diverse and high-quality structures, making up the first stage of our model. In the second stage, we propose a structural attention module inside the texture generation network, where the module utilizes the structural information to capture distant correlations. We further reuse the VQ-VAE to calculate two feature losses, which help improve structure coherence and texture realism, respectively. Experimental results on CelebA-HQ, Places2, and ImageNet datasets show that our method not only enhances the diversity of the inpainting solutions but also improves the visual quality of the generated multiple images. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/USTC-JialunPeng/Diverse-Structure-Inpainting.

In this paper, we propose ZipAR, a training-free, plug-and-play parallel decoding framework for accelerating auto-regressive (AR) visual generation. The motivation stems from the observation that images exhibit local structures, and spatially distant regions tend to have minimal interdependence. Given a partially decoded set of visual tokens, in addition to the original next-token prediction scheme in the row dimension, the tokens corresponding to spatially adjacent regions in the column dimension can be decoded in parallel, enabling the ``next-set prediction'' paradigm. By decoding multiple tokens simultaneously in a single forward pass, the number of forward passes required to generate an image is significantly reduced, resulting in a substantial improvement in generation efficiency. Experiments demonstrate that ZipAR can reduce the number of model forward passes by up to 91% on the Emu3-Gen model without requiring any additional retraining.

Large language models (LLMs) rely on key-value (KV) caches for efficient autoregressive decoding; however, cache size grows linearly with context length and model depth, becoming a major bottleneck in long-context inference. Prior KV cache compression methods either enforce rigid heuristics, disrupt tensor layouts with per-attention-head variability, or require specialized compute kernels. We propose a simple, yet effective, KV cache compression framework based on attention-guided, layer-adaptive composite tokens. Our method aggregates attention scores to estimate token importance, selects head-specific tokens independently, and aligns them into composite tokens that respect the uniform cache structure required by existing inference engines. A global allocation mechanism further adapts retention budgets across layers, assigning more capacity to layers with informative tokens. This approach achieves significant memory reduction while preserving accuracy, consistently outperforming prior structured and semi-structured methods. Crucially, our approach remains fully compatible with standard inference pipelines, offering a practical and scalable solution for efficient long-context LLM deployment.

Learning effective visuomotor policies for robotic manipulation is challenging, as it requires generating precise actions while maintaining computational efficiency. Existing methods remain unsatisfactory due to inherent limitations in the essential action representation and the basic network architectures. We observe that representing actions in the frequency domain captures the structured nature of motion more effectively: low-frequency components reflect global movement patterns, while high-frequency components encode fine local details. Additionally, robotic manipulation tasks of varying complexity demand different levels of modeling precision across these frequency bands. Motivated by this, we propose a novel paradigm for visuomotor policy learning that progressively models hierarchical frequency components. To further enhance precision, we introduce continuous latent representations that maintain smoothness and continuity in the action space. Extensive experiments across diverse 2D and 3D robotic manipulation benchmarks demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and efficiency, showcasing the potential of a frequency-domain autoregressive framework with continuous tokens for generalized robotic manipulation.Code is available at https://github.com/4DVLab/Freqpolicy

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) (Ho et al. 2020) have shown impressive results on image and waveform generation in continuous state spaces. Here, we introduce Discrete Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (D3PMs), diffusion-like generative models for discrete data that generalize the multinomial diffusion model of Hoogeboom et al. 2021, by going beyond corruption processes with uniform transition probabilities. This includes corruption with transition matrices that mimic Gaussian kernels in continuous space, matrices based on nearest neighbors in embedding space, and matrices that introduce absorbing states. The third allows us to draw a connection between diffusion models and autoregressive and mask-based generative models. We show that the choice of transition matrix is an important design decision that leads to improved results in image and text domains. We also introduce a new loss function that combines the variational lower bound with an auxiliary cross entropy loss. For text, this model class achieves strong results on character-level text generation while scaling to large vocabularies on LM1B. On the image dataset CIFAR-10, our models approach the sample quality and exceed the log-likelihood of the continuous-space DDPM model.

We introduce AiM, an autoregressive (AR) image generative model based on Mamba architecture. AiM employs Mamba, a novel state-space model characterized by its exceptional performance for long-sequence modeling with linear time complexity, to supplant the commonly utilized Transformers in AR image generation models, aiming to achieve both superior generation quality and enhanced inference speed. Unlike existing methods that adapt Mamba to handle two-dimensional signals via multi-directional scan, AiM directly utilizes the next-token prediction paradigm for autoregressive image generation. This approach circumvents the need for extensive modifications to enable Mamba to learn 2D spatial representations. By implementing straightforward yet strategically targeted modifications for visual generative tasks, we preserve Mamba's core structure, fully exploiting its efficient long-sequence modeling capabilities and scalability. We provide AiM models in various scales, with parameter counts ranging from 148M to 1.3B. On the ImageNet1K 256*256 benchmark, our best AiM model achieves a FID of 2.21, surpassing all existing AR models of comparable parameter counts and demonstrating significant competitiveness against diffusion models, with 2 to 10 times faster inference speed. Code is available at https://github.com/hp-l33/AiM

Molecular structure elucidation from spectra is a foundational problem in chemistry, with profound implications for compound identification, synthesis, and drug development. Traditional methods rely heavily on expert interpretation and lack scalability. Pioneering machine learning methods have introduced retrieval-based strategies, but their reliance on finite libraries limits generalization to novel molecules. Generative models offer a promising alternative, yet most adopt autoregressive SMILES-based architectures that overlook 3D geometry and struggle to integrate diverse spectral modalities. In this work, we present DiffSpectra, a generative framework that directly infers both 2D and 3D molecular structures from multi-modal spectral data using diffusion models. DiffSpectra formulates structure elucidation as a conditional generation process. Its denoising network is parameterized by Diffusion Molecule Transformer, an SE(3)-equivariant architecture that integrates topological and geometric information. Conditioning is provided by SpecFormer, a transformer-based spectral encoder that captures intra- and inter-spectral dependencies from multi-modal spectra. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DiffSpectra achieves high accuracy in structure elucidation, recovering exact structures with 16.01% top-1 accuracy and 96.86% top-20 accuracy through sampling. The model benefits significantly from 3D geometric modeling, SpecFormer pre-training, and multi-modal conditioning. These results highlight the effectiveness of spectrum-conditioned diffusion modeling in addressing the challenge of molecular structure elucidation. To our knowledge, DiffSpectra is the first framework to unify multi-modal spectral reasoning and joint 2D/3D generative modeling for de novo molecular structure elucidation.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) models have demonstrated their potential to rival diffusion models in image synthesis. However, for complex spatially-conditioned generation, current AR approaches rely on fine-tuning the pre-trained model, leading to significant training costs. In this paper, we propose the Efficient Control Model (ECM), a plug-and-play framework featuring a lightweight control module that introduces control signals via a distributed architecture. This architecture consists of context-aware attention layers that refine conditional features using real-time generated tokens, and a shared gated feed-forward network (FFN) designed to maximize the utilization of its limited capacity and ensure coherent control feature learning. Furthermore, recognizing the critical role of early-stage generation in determining semantic structure, we introduce an early-centric sampling strategy that prioritizes learning early control sequences. This approach reduces computational cost by lowering the number of training tokens per iteration, while a complementary temperature scheduling during inference compensates for the resulting insufficient training of late-stage tokens. Extensive experiments on scale-based AR models validate that our method achieves high-fidelity and diverse control over image generation, surpassing existing baselines while significantly improving both training and inference efficiency.

We present Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimation (NADE) models, which are neural network architectures applied to the problem of unsupervised distribution and density estimation. They leverage the probability product rule and a weight sharing scheme inspired from restricted Boltzmann machines, to yield an estimator that is both tractable and has good generalization performance. We discuss how they achieve competitive performance in modeling both binary and real-valued observations. We also present how deep NADE models can be trained to be agnostic to the ordering of input dimensions used by the autoregressive product rule decomposition. Finally, we also show how to exploit the topological structure of pixels in images using a deep convolutional architecture for NADE.

Autoregressive (AR) models have achieved unified and strong performance across both visual understanding and image generation tasks. However, removing undesired concepts from AR models while maintaining overall generation quality remains an open challenge. In this paper, we propose Erasure Autoregressive Model (EAR), a fine-tuning method for effective and utility-preserving concept erasure in AR models. Specifically, we introduce Windowed Gradient Accumulation (WGA) strategy to align patch-level decoding with erasure objectives, and Thresholded Loss Masking (TLM) strategy to protect content unrelated to the target concept during fine-tuning. Furthermore, we propose a novel benchmark, Erase Concept Generator and Visual Filter (ECGVF), aim at provide a more rigorous and comprehensive foundation for evaluating concept erasure in AR models. Specifically, we first employ structured templates across diverse large language models (LLMs) to pre-generate a large-scale corpus of target-replacement concept prompt pairs. Subsequently, we generate images from these prompts and subject them to rigorous filtering via a visual classifier to ensure concept fidelity and alignment. Extensive experimental results conducted on the ECGVF benchmark with the AR model Janus-Pro demonstrate that EAR achieves marked improvements in both erasure effectiveness and model utility preservation. Code is available at: https://github.com/immc-lab/ear/

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

Recently, end-to-end models have been widely used in automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. Two of the most representative approaches are connectionist temporal classification (CTC) and attention-based encoder-decoder (AED) models. Autoregressive transformers, variants of AED, adopt an autoregressive mechanism for token generation and thus are relatively slow during inference. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of a CTC Alignment-based Single-Step Non-Autoregressive Transformer (CASS-NAT) for end-to-end ASR. In CASS-NAT, word embeddings in the autoregressive transformer (AT) are substituted with token-level acoustic embeddings (TAE) that are extracted from encoder outputs with the acoustical boundary information offered by the CTC alignment. TAE can be obtained in parallel, resulting in a parallel generation of output tokens. During training, Viterbi-alignment is used for TAE generation, and multiple training strategies are further explored to improve the word error rate (WER) performance. During inference, an error-based alignment sampling method is investigated in depth to reduce the alignment mismatch in the training and testing processes. Experimental results show that the CASS-NAT has a WER that is close to AT on various ASR tasks, while providing a ~24x inference speedup. With and without self-supervised learning, we achieve new state-of-the-art results for non-autoregressive models on several datasets. We also analyze the behavior of the CASS-NAT decoder to explain why it can perform similarly to AT. We find that TAEs have similar functionality to word embeddings for grammatical structures, which might indicate the possibility of learning some semantic information from TAEs without a language model.

Autoregressive modeling has been a huge success in the field of natural language processing (NLP). Recently, autoregressive models have emerged as a significant area of focus in computer vision, where they excel in producing high-quality visual content. Autoregressive models in NLP typically operate on subword tokens. However, the representation strategy in computer vision can vary in different levels, i.e., pixel-level, token-level, or scale-level, reflecting the diverse and hierarchical nature of visual data compared to the sequential structure of language. This survey comprehensively examines the literature on autoregressive models applied to vision. To improve readability for researchers from diverse research backgrounds, we start with preliminary sequence representation and modeling in vision. Next, we divide the fundamental frameworks of visual autoregressive models into three general sub-categories, including pixel-based, token-based, and scale-based models based on the strategy of representation. We then explore the interconnections between autoregressive models and other generative models. Furthermore, we present a multi-faceted categorization of autoregressive models in computer vision, including image generation, video generation, 3D generation, and multi-modal generation. We also elaborate on their applications in diverse domains, including emerging domains such as embodied AI and 3D medical AI, with about 250 related references. Finally, we highlight the current challenges to autoregressive models in vision with suggestions about potential research directions. We have also set up a Github repository to organize the papers included in this survey at: https://github.com/ChaofanTao/Autoregressive-Models-in-Vision-Survey.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Diffusion models have garnered considerable interest in the field of text generation. Several studies have explored text diffusion models with different structures and applied them to various tasks, including named entity recognition and summarization. However, there exists a notable disparity between the "easy-first" text generation process of current diffusion models and the "keyword-first" natural text generation process of humans, which has received limited attention. To bridge this gap, we propose InfoDiffusion, a non-autoregressive text diffusion model. Our approach introduces a "keyinfo-first" generation strategy and incorporates a noise schedule based on the amount of text information. In addition, InfoDiffusion combines self-conditioning with a newly proposed partially noising model structure. Experimental results show that InfoDiffusion outperforms the baseline model in terms of generation quality and diversity, as well as exhibiting higher sampling efficiency.

Faithful reasoning in medical vision-language models (VLMs) requires not only accurate predictions but also transparent alignment between textual rationales and visual evidence. While Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has shown promise in medical visual question answering (VQA), no large-scale expert-level dataset has captured stepwise reasoning with precise visual grounding. We introduce S-Chain, the first large-scale dataset of 12,000 expert-annotated medical images with bounding boxes and structured visual CoT (SV-CoT), explicitly linking visual regions to reasoning steps. The dataset further supports 16 languages, totaling over 700k VQA pairs for broad multilingual applicability. Using S-Chain, we benchmark state-of-the-art medical VLMs (ExGra-Med, LLaVA-Med) and general-purpose VLMs (Qwen2.5-VL, InternVL2.5), showing that SV-CoT supervision significantly improves interpretability, grounding fidelity, and robustness. Beyond benchmarking, we study its synergy with retrieval-augmented generation, revealing how domain knowledge and visual grounding interact during autoregressive reasoning. Finally, we propose a new mechanism that strengthens the alignment between visual evidence and reasoning, improving both reliability and efficiency. S-Chain establishes a new benchmark for grounded medical reasoning and paves the way toward more trustworthy and explainable medical VLMs.

We present RigAnything, a novel autoregressive transformer-based model, which makes 3D assets rig-ready by probabilistically generating joints, skeleton topologies, and assigning skinning weights in a template-free manner. Unlike most existing auto-rigging methods, which rely on predefined skeleton template and are limited to specific categories like humanoid, RigAnything approaches the rigging problem in an autoregressive manner, iteratively predicting the next joint based on the global input shape and the previous prediction. While autoregressive models are typically used to generate sequential data, RigAnything extends their application to effectively learn and represent skeletons, which are inherently tree structures. To achieve this, we organize the joints in a breadth-first search (BFS) order, enabling the skeleton to be defined as a sequence of 3D locations and the parent index. Furthermore, our model improves the accuracy of position prediction by leveraging diffusion modeling, ensuring precise and consistent placement of joints within the hierarchy. This formulation allows the autoregressive model to efficiently capture both spatial and hierarchical relationships within the skeleton. Trained end-to-end on both RigNet and Objaverse datasets, RigAnything demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across diverse object types, including humanoids, quadrupeds, marine creatures, insects, and many more, surpassing prior methods in quality, robustness, generalizability, and efficiency. Please check our website for more details: https://www.liuisabella.com/RigAnything.

Transformer models have been successful in various sequence processing tasks, but the self-attention mechanism's computational cost limits its practicality for long sequences. Although there are existing attention variants that improve computational efficiency, they have a limited ability to abstract global information effectively based on their hand-crafted mixing strategies. On the other hand, state-space models (SSMs) are tailored for long sequences but cannot capture complicated local information. Therefore, the combination of them as a unified token mixer is a trend in recent long-sequence models. However, the linearized attention degrades performance significantly even when equipped with SSMs. To address the issue, we propose a new method called LongVQ. LongVQ uses the vector quantization (VQ) technique to compress the global abstraction as a length-fixed codebook, enabling the linear-time computation of the attention matrix. This technique effectively maintains dynamic global and local patterns, which helps to complement the lack of long-range dependency issues. Our experiments on the Long Range Arena benchmark, autoregressive language modeling, and image and speech classification demonstrate the effectiveness of LongVQ. Our model achieves significant improvements over other sequence models, including variants of Transformers, Convolutions, and recent State Space Models.

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building a probabilistic graphical model Psi of the data, in the form of a random-access autoregressive sequence model. Psi supports a complete set of learned conditional distributions describing the dependence of any variables in the data on any other set of variables. In step 2, Structure extraction, we show how to extract underlying low-dimensional properties in the data, corresponding to a diverse set of meaningful "intermediate structures", in a zero-shot fashion via causal inference on Psi. Step 3, Integration, completes the cycle by converting these structures into new token types that are then continually mixed back into the training diet as conditioning signals and prediction targets. Each such cycle augments the capabilities of Psi, both allowing it to model the underlying data better, and creating new control handles -- akin to an LLM-like universal prompting language. We train an instance of Psi on 1.4 trillion tokens of internet video data; we use it to perform a variety of useful video prediction and understanding inferences; we extract state-of-the-art optical flow, self-supervised depth and object segmentation; and we use these structures to support a full cycle of predictive improvements.

The vanilla autoregressive image generation model generates visual tokens in a step-by-step fashion, which limits the ability to capture holistic relationships among token sequences. Moreover, most visual tokenizers map local image patches into latent tokens, leading to limited global information. To address this, we introduce Hita, a novel image tokenizer for autoregressive (AR) image generation. It introduces a holistic-to-local tokenization scheme with learnable holistic queries and local patch tokens. Besides, Hita incorporates two key strategies for improved alignment with the AR generation process: 1) it arranges a sequential structure with holistic tokens at the beginning followed by patch-level tokens while using causal attention to maintain awareness of previous tokens; and 2) before feeding the de-quantized tokens into the decoder, Hita adopts a lightweight fusion module to control information flow to prioritize holistic tokens. Extensive experiments show that Hita accelerates the training speed of AR generators and outperforms those trained with vanilla tokenizers, achieving 2.59 FID and 281.9 IS on the ImageNet benchmark. A detailed analysis of the holistic representation highlights its ability to capture global image properties such as textures, materials, and shapes. Additionally, Hita also demonstrates effectiveness in zero-shot style transfer and image in-painting. The code is available at https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/Hita{https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/Hita}

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful generative paradigm for visual generation. The current de-facto standard of next token prediction commonly operates over a single-scale sequence of dense image tokens, and is incapable of utilizing global context especially for early tokens prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new autoregressive design to model a hierarchy from a few low-resolution image tokens to the typical dense image tokens, and delve into a thorough hierarchical dependency across multi-scale image tokens. Technically, we present a Hierarchical Masked Autoregressive models (Hi-MAR) that pivot on low-resolution image tokens to trigger hierarchical autoregressive modeling in a multi-phase manner. Hi-MAR learns to predict a few image tokens in low resolution, functioning as intermediary pivots to reflect global structure, in the first phase. Such pivots act as the additional guidance to strengthen the next autoregressive modeling phase by shaping global structural awareness of typical dense image tokens. A new Diffusion Transformer head is further devised to amplify the global context among all tokens for mask token prediction. Extensive evaluations on both class-conditional and text-to-image generation tasks demonstrate that Hi-MAR outperforms typical AR baselines, while requiring fewer computational costs. Code is available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/himar.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling has achieved remarkable success in natural language processing by enabling models to generate text with coherence and contextual understanding through next token prediction. Recently, in image generation, VAR proposes scale-wise autoregressive modeling, which extends the next token prediction to the next scale prediction, preserving the 2D structure of images. However, VAR encounters two primary challenges: (1) its complex and rigid scale design limits generalization in next scale prediction, and (2) the generator's dependence on a discrete tokenizer with the same complex scale structure restricts modularity and flexibility in updating the tokenizer. To address these limitations, we introduce FlowAR, a general next scale prediction method featuring a streamlined scale design, where each subsequent scale is simply double the previous one. This eliminates the need for VAR's intricate multi-scale residual tokenizer and enables the use of any off-the-shelf Variational AutoEncoder (VAE). Our simplified design enhances generalization in next scale prediction and facilitates the integration of Flow Matching for high-quality image synthesis. We validate the effectiveness of FlowAR on the challenging ImageNet-256 benchmark, demonstrating superior generation performance compared to previous methods. Codes will be available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/FlowAR.

Articulated 3D object generation is fundamental for creating realistic, functional, and interactable virtual assets which are not simply static. We introduce MeshArt, a hierarchical transformer-based approach to generate articulated 3D meshes with clean, compact geometry, reminiscent of human-crafted 3D models. We approach articulated mesh generation in a part-by-part fashion across two stages. First, we generate a high-level articulation-aware object structure; then, based on this structural information, we synthesize each part's mesh faces. Key to our approach is modeling both articulation structures and part meshes as sequences of quantized triangle embeddings, leading to a unified hierarchical framework with transformers for autoregressive generation. Object part structures are first generated as their bounding primitives and articulation modes; a second transformer, guided by these articulation structures, then generates each part's mesh triangles. To ensure coherency among generated parts, we introduce structure-guided conditioning that also incorporates local part mesh connectivity. MeshArt shows significant improvements over state of the art, with 57.1% improvement in structure coverage and a 209-point improvement in mesh generation FID.

We address two challenges of probabilistic topic modelling in order to better estimate the probability of a word in a given context, i.e., P(word|context): (1) No Language Structure in Context: Probabilistic topic models ignore word order by summarizing a given context as a "bag-of-word" and consequently the semantics of words in the context is lost. The LSTM-LM learns a vector-space representation of each word by accounting for word order in local collocation patterns and models complex characteristics of language (e.g., syntax and semantics), while the TM simultaneously learns a latent representation from the entire document and discovers the underlying thematic structure. We unite two complementary paradigms of learning the meaning of word occurrences by combining a TM (e.g., DocNADE) and a LM in a unified probabilistic framework, named as ctx-DocNADE. (2) Limited Context and/or Smaller training corpus of documents: In settings with a small number of word occurrences (i.e., lack of context) in short text or data sparsity in a corpus of few documents, the application of TMs is challenging. We address this challenge by incorporating external knowledge into neural autoregressive topic models via a language modelling approach: we use word embeddings as input of a LSTM-LM with the aim to improve the word-topic mapping on a smaller and/or short-text corpus. The proposed DocNADE extension is named as ctx-DocNADEe. We present novel neural autoregressive topic model variants coupled with neural LMs and embeddings priors that consistently outperform state-of-the-art generative TMs in terms of generalization (perplexity), interpretability (topic coherence) and applicability (retrieval and classification) over 6 long-text and 8 short-text datasets from diverse domains.

We study data distillation for auto-regressive machine learning tasks, where the input and output have a strict left-to-right causal structure. More specifically, we propose Farzi, which summarizes an event sequence dataset into a small number of synthetic sequences -- Farzi Data -- which are optimized to maintain (if not improve) model performance compared to training on the full dataset. Under the hood, Farzi conducts memory-efficient data distillation by (i) deriving efficient reverse-mode differentiation of the Adam optimizer by leveraging Hessian-Vector Products; and (ii) factorizing the high-dimensional discrete event-space into a latent-space which provably promotes implicit regularization. Empirically, for sequential recommendation and language modeling tasks, we are able to achieve 98-120% of downstream full-data performance when training state-of-the-art models on Farzi Data of size as little as 0.1% of the original dataset. Notably, being able to train better models with significantly less data sheds light on the design of future large auto-regressive models, and opens up new opportunities to further scale up model and data sizes.

In this paper, we present LaVieID, a novel local autoregressive video diffusion framework designed to tackle the challenging identity-preserving text-to-video task. The key idea of LaVieID is to mitigate the loss of identity information inherent in the stochastic global generation process of diffusion transformers (DiTs) from both spatial and temporal perspectives. Specifically, unlike the global and unstructured modeling of facial latent states in existing DiTs, LaVieID introduces a local router to explicitly represent latent states by weighted combinations of fine-grained local facial structures. This alleviates undesirable feature interference and encourages DiTs to capture distinctive facial characteristics. Furthermore, a temporal autoregressive module is integrated into LaVieID to refine denoised latent tokens before video decoding. This module divides latent tokens temporally into chunks, exploiting their long-range temporal dependencies to predict biases for rectifying tokens, thereby significantly enhancing inter-frame identity consistency. Consequently, LaVieID can generate high-fidelity personalized videos and achieve state-of-the-art performance. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/ssugarwh/LaVieID.

Autoregressive transformers have revolutionized generative models in language processing and shown substantial promise in image and video generation. However, these models face significant challenges when extended to 3D generation tasks due to their reliance on next-token prediction to learn token sequences, which is incompatible with the unordered nature of 3D data. Instead of imposing an artificial order on 3D data, in this paper, we introduce G3PT, a scalable coarse-to-fine 3D generative model utilizing a cross-scale querying transformer. The key is to map point-based 3D data into discrete tokens with different levels of detail, naturally establishing a sequential relationship between different levels suitable for autoregressive modeling. Additionally, the cross-scale querying transformer connects tokens globally across different levels of detail without requiring an ordered sequence. Benefiting from this approach, G3PT features a versatile 3D generation pipeline that effortlessly supports diverse conditional structures, enabling the generation of 3D shapes from various types of conditions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that G3PT achieves superior generation quality and generalization ability compared to previous 3D generation methods. Most importantly, for the first time in 3D generation, scaling up G3PT reveals distinct power-law scaling behaviors.

Spider webs are incredible biological structures, comprising thin but strong silk filament and arranged into complex hierarchical architectures with striking mechanical properties (e.g., lightweight but high strength, achieving diverse mechanical responses). While simple 2D orb webs can easily be mimicked, the modeling and synthesis of 3D-based web structures remain challenging, partly due to the rich set of design features. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the heterogenous graph structures of spider webs, and use deep learning as a way to model and then synthesize artificial, bio-inspired 3D web structures. The generative AI models are conditioned based on key geometric parameters (including average edge length, number of nodes, average node degree, and others). To identify graph construction principles, we use inductive representation sampling of large experimentally determined spider web graphs, to yield a dataset that is used to train three conditional generative models: 1) An analog diffusion model inspired by nonequilibrium thermodynamics, with sparse neighbor representation, 2) a discrete diffusion model with full neighbor representation, and 3) an autoregressive transformer architecture with full neighbor representation. All three models are scalable, produce complex, de novo bio-inspired spider web mimics, and successfully construct graphs that meet the design objectives. We further propose algorithm that assembles web samples produced by the generative models into larger-scale structures based on a series of geometric design targets, including helical and parametric shapes, mimicking, and extending natural design principles towards integration with diverging engineering objectives. Several webs are manufactured using 3D printing and tested to assess mechanical properties.

World models serve as essential building blocks toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), enabling intelligent agents to predict future states and plan actions by simulating complex physical interactions. However, existing interactive models primarily predict visual observations, thereby neglecting crucial hidden states like geometric structures and spatial coherence. This leads to rapid error accumulation and temporal inconsistency. To address these limitations, we introduce DeepVerse, a novel 4D interactive world model explicitly incorporating geometric predictions from previous timesteps into current predictions conditioned on actions. Experiments demonstrate that by incorporating explicit geometric constraints, DeepVerse captures richer spatio-temporal relationships and underlying physical dynamics. This capability significantly reduces drift and enhances temporal consistency, enabling the model to reliably generate extended future sequences and achieve substantial improvements in prediction accuracy, visual realism, and scene rationality. Furthermore, our method provides an effective solution for geometry-aware memory retrieval, effectively preserving long-term spatial consistency. We validate the effectiveness of DeepVerse across diverse scenarios, establishing its capacity for high-fidelity, long-horizon predictions grounded in geometry-aware dynamics.

This paper presents DetailFlow, a coarse-to-fine 1D autoregressive (AR) image generation method that models images through a novel next-detail prediction strategy. By learning a resolution-aware token sequence supervised with progressively degraded images, DetailFlow enables the generation process to start from the global structure and incrementally refine details. This coarse-to-fine 1D token sequence aligns well with the autoregressive inference mechanism, providing a more natural and efficient way for the AR model to generate complex visual content. Our compact 1D AR model achieves high-quality image synthesis with significantly fewer tokens than previous approaches, i.e. VAR/VQGAN. We further propose a parallel inference mechanism with self-correction that accelerates generation speed by approximately 8x while reducing accumulation sampling error inherent in teacher-forcing supervision. On the ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, our method achieves 2.96 gFID with 128 tokens, outperforming VAR (3.3 FID) and FlexVAR (3.05 FID), which both require 680 tokens in their AR models. Moreover, due to the significantly reduced token count and parallel inference mechanism, our method runs nearly 2x faster inference speed compared to VAR and FlexVAR. Extensive experimental results demonstrate DetailFlow's superior generation quality and efficiency compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

We introduce TreeMeshGPT, an autoregressive Transformer designed to generate high-quality artistic meshes aligned with input point clouds. Instead of the conventional next-token prediction in autoregressive Transformer, we propose a novel Autoregressive Tree Sequencing where the next input token is retrieved from a dynamically growing tree structure that is built upon the triangle adjacency of faces within the mesh. Our sequencing enables the mesh to extend locally from the last generated triangular face at each step, and therefore reduces training difficulty and improves mesh quality. Our approach represents each triangular face with two tokens, achieving a compression rate of approximately 22% compared to the naive face tokenization. This efficient tokenization enables our model to generate highly detailed artistic meshes with strong point cloud conditioning, surpassing previous methods in both capacity and fidelity. Furthermore, our method generates mesh with strong normal orientation constraints, minimizing flipped normals commonly encountered in previous methods. Our experiments show that TreeMeshGPT enhances the mesh generation quality with refined details and normal orientation consistency.

Context-aware STR methods typically use internal autoregressive (AR) language models (LM). Inherent limitations of AR models motivated two-stage methods which employ an external LM. The conditional independence of the external LM on the input image may cause it to erroneously rectify correct predictions, leading to significant inefficiencies. Our method, PARSeq, learns an ensemble of internal AR LMs with shared weights using Permutation Language Modeling. It unifies context-free non-AR and context-aware AR inference, and iterative refinement using bidirectional context. Using synthetic training data, PARSeq achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) results in STR benchmarks (91.9% accuracy) and more challenging datasets. It establishes new SOTA results (96.0% accuracy) when trained on real data. PARSeq is optimal on accuracy vs parameter count, FLOPS, and latency because of its simple, unified structure and parallel token processing. Due to its extensive use of attention, it is robust on arbitrarily-oriented text which is common in real-world images. Code, pretrained weights, and data are available at: https://github.com/baudm/parseq.

Autoregressive (AR) models have recently shown strong performance in image generation, where a critical component is the visual tokenizer (VT) that maps continuous pixel inputs to discrete token sequences. The quality of the VT largely defines the upper bound of AR model performance. However, current discrete VTs fall significantly behind continuous variational autoencoders (VAEs), leading to degraded image reconstructions and poor preservation of details and text. Existing benchmarks focus on end-to-end generation quality, without isolating VT performance. To address this gap, we introduce VTBench, a comprehensive benchmark that systematically evaluates VTs across three core tasks: Image Reconstruction, Detail Preservation, and Text Preservation, and covers a diverse range of evaluation scenarios. We systematically assess state-of-the-art VTs using a set of metrics to evaluate the quality of reconstructed images. Our findings reveal that continuous VAEs produce superior visual representations compared to discrete VTs, particularly in retaining spatial structure and semantic detail. In contrast, the degraded representations produced by discrete VTs often lead to distorted reconstructions, loss of fine-grained textures, and failures in preserving text and object integrity. Furthermore, we conduct experiments on GPT-4o image generation and discuss its potential AR nature, offering new insights into the role of visual tokenization. We release our benchmark and codebase publicly to support further research and call on the community to develop strong, general-purpose open-source VTs.

We present LARP, a novel video tokenizer designed to overcome limitations in current video tokenization methods for autoregressive (AR) generative models. Unlike traditional patchwise tokenizers that directly encode local visual patches into discrete tokens, LARP introduces a holistic tokenization scheme that gathers information from the visual content using a set of learned holistic queries. This design allows LARP to capture more global and semantic representations, rather than being limited to local patch-level information. Furthermore, it offers flexibility by supporting an arbitrary number of discrete tokens, enabling adaptive and efficient tokenization based on the specific requirements of the task. To align the discrete token space with downstream AR generation tasks, LARP integrates a lightweight AR transformer as a training-time prior model that predicts the next token on its discrete latent space. By incorporating the prior model during training, LARP learns a latent space that is not only optimized for video reconstruction but is also structured in a way that is more conducive to autoregressive generation. Moreover, this process defines a sequential order for the discrete tokens, progressively pushing them toward an optimal configuration during training, ensuring smoother and more accurate AR generation at inference time. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate LARP's strong performance, achieving state-of-the-art FVD on the UCF101 class-conditional video generation benchmark. LARP enhances the compatibility of AR models with videos and opens up the potential to build unified high-fidelity multimodal large language models (MLLMs).

We introduce STAR, a text-to-image model that employs a scale-wise auto-regressive paradigm. Unlike VAR, which is constrained to class-conditioned synthesis for images up to 256times256, STAR enables text-driven image generation up to 1024times1024 through three key designs. First, we introduce a pre-trained text encoder to extract and adopt representations for textual constraints, enhancing details and generalizability. Second, given the inherent structural correlation across different scales, we leverage 2D Rotary Positional Encoding (RoPE) and tweak it into a normalized version, ensuring consistent interpretation of relative positions across token maps and stabilizing the training process. Third, we observe that simultaneously sampling all tokens within a single scale can disrupt inter-token relationships, leading to structural instability, particularly in high-resolution generation. To address this, we propose a novel stable sampling method that incorporates causal relationships into the sampling process, ensuring both rich details and stable structures. Compared to previous diffusion models and auto-regressive models, STAR surpasses existing benchmarks in fidelity, text-image consistency, and aesthetic quality, requiring just 2.21s for 1024times1024 images on A100. This highlights the potential of auto-regressive methods in high-quality image synthesis, offering new directions for the text-to-image generation.

Real-world data is high-dimensional: a book, image, or musical performance can easily contain hundreds of thousands of elements even after compression. However, the most commonly used autoregressive models, Transformers, are prohibitively expensive to scale to the number of inputs and layers needed to capture this long-range structure. We develop Perceiver AR, an autoregressive, modality-agnostic architecture which uses cross-attention to map long-range inputs to a small number of latents while also maintaining end-to-end causal masking. Perceiver AR can directly attend to over a hundred thousand tokens, enabling practical long-context density estimation without the need for hand-crafted sparsity patterns or memory mechanisms. When trained on images or music, Perceiver AR generates outputs with clear long-term coherence and structure. Our architecture also obtains state-of-the-art likelihood on long-sequence benchmarks, including 64 x 64 ImageNet images and PG-19 books.

Text-to-video generation poses significant challenges due to the inherent complexity of video data, which spans both temporal and spatial dimensions. It introduces additional redundancy, abrupt variations, and a domain gap between language and vision tokens while generation. Addressing these challenges requires an effective video tokenizer that can efficiently encode video data while preserving essential semantic and spatiotemporal information, serving as a critical bridge between text and vision. Inspired by the observation in VQ-VAE-2 and workflows of traditional animation, we propose HiTVideo for text-to-video generation with hierarchical tokenizers. It utilizes a 3D causal VAE with a multi-layer discrete token framework, encoding video content into hierarchically structured codebooks. Higher layers capture semantic information with higher compression, while lower layers focus on fine-grained spatiotemporal details, striking a balance between compression efficiency and reconstruction quality. Our approach efficiently encodes longer video sequences (e.g., 8 seconds, 64 frames), reducing bits per pixel (bpp) by approximately 70\% compared to baseline tokenizers, while maintaining competitive reconstruction quality. We explore the trade-offs between compression and reconstruction, while emphasizing the advantages of high-compressed semantic tokens in text-to-video tasks. HiTVideo aims to address the potential limitations of existing video tokenizers in text-to-video generation tasks, striving for higher compression ratios and simplify LLMs modeling under language guidance, offering a scalable and promising framework for advancing text to video generation. Demo page: https://ziqinzhou66.github.io/project/HiTVideo.

Pre-trained encoder-decoder transformer architectures have become increasingly popular recently with the advent of T5 models. T5 has also become more favorable over other architectures like BERT due to the amount of data that it is pre-trained on, increased scale of model parameter sizes and easy applicability to a diverse set of tasks due to the generative nature of the model. While being able to generalize to a wide variety of tasks, it is not clear that encoder-decoder architectures are the most efficient for fine-tuning tasks that don't require auto-regressive decoding. In this work, we study fine-tuning pre-trained encoder-decoder models for tasks such as classification, multi-label classification, and structured prediction. We propose EncT5, a framework for these problems, and illustrate instantiations for these tasks. Our experiment results show that EncT5 has advantages over T5 such as efficiency and usability out performs BERT when evaluated on publicly available pre-trained checkpoints.

Creating machines capable of understanding the world in 3D is essential in assisting designers that build and edit 3D environments and robots navigating and interacting within a three-dimensional space. Inspired by advances in language and image modeling, we investigate the potential of autoregressive models for a new modality: structured 3D scenes. To this end, we propose a unified LLM framework that aligns language, images, and 3D scenes and provide a detailed ''cookbook'' outlining critical design choices for achieving optimal training and performance addressing key questions related to data representation, modality-specific objectives, and more. We evaluate performance across four core 3D tasks -- rendering, recognition, instruction-following, and question-answering -- and four 3D datasets, synthetic and real-world. We extend our approach to reconstruct complex 3D object shapes by enriching our 3D modality with quantized shape encodings, and show our model's effectiveness on real-world 3D object recognition tasks. Project webpage: https://glab-caltech.github.io/kyvo/

By leveraging the generative priors from pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, significant progress has been made in real-world image super-resolution (Real-ISR). However, these methods tend to generate inaccurate and unnatural reconstructions in complex and/or heavily degraded scenes, primarily due to their limited perception and understanding capability of the input low-quality image. To address these limitations, we propose, for the first time to our knowledge, to adapt the pre-trained autoregressive multimodal model such as Lumina-mGPT into a robust Real-ISR model, namely PURE, which Perceives and Understands the input low-quality image, then REstores its high-quality counterpart. Specifically, we implement instruction tuning on Lumina-mGPT to perceive the image degradation level and the relationships between previously generated image tokens and the next token, understand the image content by generating image semantic descriptions, and consequently restore the image by generating high-quality image tokens autoregressively with the collected information. In addition, we reveal that the image token entropy reflects the image structure and present a entropy-based Top-k sampling strategy to optimize the local structure of the image during inference. Experimental results demonstrate that PURE preserves image content while generating realistic details, especially in complex scenes with multiple objects, showcasing the potential of autoregressive multimodal generative models for robust Real-ISR. The model and code will be available at https://github.com/nonwhy/PURE.

Recent breakthroughs in singing voice synthesis (SVS) have heightened the demand for high-quality annotated datasets, yet manual annotation remains prohibitively labor-intensive and resource-intensive. Existing automatic singing annotation (ASA) methods, however, primarily tackle isolated aspects of the annotation pipeline. To address this fundamental challenge, we present STARS, which is, to our knowledge, the first unified framework that simultaneously addresses singing transcription, alignment, and refined style annotation. Our framework delivers comprehensive multi-level annotations encompassing: (1) precise phoneme-audio alignment, (2) robust note transcription and temporal localization, (3) expressive vocal technique identification, and (4) global stylistic characterization including emotion and pace. The proposed architecture employs hierarchical acoustic feature processing across frame, word, phoneme, note, and sentence levels. The novel non-autoregressive local acoustic encoders enable structured hierarchical representation learning. Experimental validation confirms the framework's superior performance across multiple evaluation dimensions compared to existing annotation approaches. Furthermore, applications in SVS training demonstrate that models utilizing STARS-annotated data achieve significantly enhanced perceptual naturalness and precise style control. This work not only overcomes critical scalability challenges in the creation of singing datasets but also pioneers new methodologies for controllable singing voice synthesis. Audio samples are available at https://gwx314.github.io/stars-demo/.

This paper describes the University of Sydney& JD's joint submission of the IWSLT 2021 low resource speech translation task. We participated in the Swahili-English direction and got the best scareBLEU (25.3) score among all the participants. Our constrained system is based on a pipeline framework, i.e. ASR and NMT. We trained our models with the officially provided ASR and MT datasets. The ASR system is based on the open-sourced tool Kaldi and this work mainly explores how to make the most of the NMT models. To reduce the punctuation errors generated by the ASR model, we employ our previous work SlotRefine to train a punctuation correction model. To achieve better translation performance, we explored the most recent effective strategies, including back translation, knowledge distillation, multi-feature reranking and transductive finetuning. For model structure, we tried auto-regressive and non-autoregressive models, respectively. In addition, we proposed two novel pre-train approaches, i.e. de-noising training and bidirectional training to fully exploit the data. Extensive experiments show that adding the above techniques consistently improves the BLEU scores, and the final submission system outperforms the baseline (Transformer ensemble model trained with the original parallel data) by approximately 10.8 BLEU score, achieving the SOTA performance.

We introduce VertexRegen, a novel mesh generation framework that enables generation at a continuous level of detail. Existing autoregressive methods generate meshes in a partial-to-complete manner and thus intermediate steps of generation represent incomplete structures. VertexRegen takes inspiration from progressive meshes and reformulates the process as the reversal of edge collapse, i.e. vertex split, learned through a generative model. Experimental results demonstrate that VertexRegen produces meshes of comparable quality to state-of-the-art methods while uniquely offering anytime generation with the flexibility to halt at any step to yield valid meshes with varying levels of detail.

Zero-shot voice conversion has recently made substantial progress, but many models still depend on external supervised systems to disentangle speaker identity and linguistic content. Furthermore, current methods often use parallel conversion, where the converted speech inherits the source utterance's temporal structure, restricting speaker similarity and privacy. To overcome these limitations, we introduce GenVC, a generative zero-shot voice conversion model. GenVC learns to disentangle linguistic content and speaker style in a self-supervised manner, eliminating the need for external models and enabling efficient training on large, unlabeled datasets. Experimental results show that GenVC achieves state-of-the-art speaker similarity while maintaining naturalness competitive with leading approaches. Its autoregressive generation also allows the converted speech to deviate from the source utterance's temporal structure. This feature makes GenVC highly effective for voice anonymization, as it minimizes the preservation of source prosody and speaker characteristics, enhancing privacy protection.

Generative models trained on extensive high-quality datasets effectively capture the structural and statistical properties of clean images, rendering them powerful priors for transforming degraded features into clean ones in image restoration. VAR, a novel image generative paradigm, surpasses diffusion models in generation quality by applying a next-scale prediction approach. It progressively captures both global structures and fine-grained details through the autoregressive process, consistent with the multi-scale restoration principle widely acknowledged in the restoration community. Furthermore, we observe that during the image reconstruction process utilizing VAR, scale predictions automatically modulate the input, facilitating the alignment of representations at subsequent scales with the distribution of clean images. To harness VAR's adaptive distribution alignment capability in image restoration tasks, we formulate the multi-scale latent representations within VAR as the restoration prior, thus advancing our delicately designed VarFormer framework. The strategic application of these priors enables our VarFormer to achieve remarkable generalization on unseen tasks while also reducing training computational costs. Extensive experiments underscores that our VarFormer outperforms existing multi-task image restoration methods across various restoration tasks.

Most real-world graphs exhibit a hierarchical structure, which is often overlooked by existing graph generation methods. To address this limitation, we propose a novel graph generative network that captures the hierarchical nature of graphs and successively generates the graph sub-structures in a coarse-to-fine fashion. At each level of hierarchy, this model generates communities in parallel, followed by the prediction of cross-edges between communities using separate neural networks. This modular approach enables scalable graph generation for large and complex graphs. Moreover, we model the output distribution of edges in the hierarchical graph with a multinomial distribution and derive a recursive factorization for this distribution. This enables us to generate community graphs with integer-valued edge weights in an autoregressive manner. Empirical studies demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our proposed generative model, achieving state-of-the-art performance in terms of graph quality across various benchmark datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/Karami-m/HiGen_main.

In this work, we propose DiffWave, a versatile diffusion probabilistic model for conditional and unconditional waveform generation. The model is non-autoregressive, and converts the white noise signal into structured waveform through a Markov chain with a constant number of steps at synthesis. It is efficiently trained by optimizing a variant of variational bound on the data likelihood. DiffWave produces high-fidelity audios in different waveform generation tasks, including neural vocoding conditioned on mel spectrogram, class-conditional generation, and unconditional generation. We demonstrate that DiffWave matches a strong WaveNet vocoder in terms of speech quality (MOS: 4.44 versus 4.43), while synthesizing orders of magnitude faster. In particular, it significantly outperforms autoregressive and GAN-based waveform models in the challenging unconditional generation task in terms of audio quality and sample diversity from various automatic and human evaluations.

How can we design protein sequences folding into the desired structures effectively and efficiently? AI methods for structure-based protein design have attracted increasing attention in recent years; however, few methods can simultaneously improve the accuracy and efficiency due to the lack of expressive features and autoregressive sequence decoder. To address these issues, we propose PiFold, which contains a novel residue featurizer and PiGNN layers to generate protein sequences in a one-shot way with improved recovery. Experiments show that PiFold could achieve 51.66\% recovery on CATH 4.2, while the inference speed is 70 times faster than the autoregressive competitors. In addition, PiFold achieves 58.72\% and 60.42\% recovery scores on TS50 and TS500, respectively. We conduct comprehensive ablation studies to reveal the role of different types of protein features and model designs, inspiring further simplification and improvement. The PyTorch code is available at https://github.com/A4Bio/PiFold{GitHub}.

In this work, we propose WaveFlow, a small-footprint generative flow for raw audio, which is directly trained with maximum likelihood. It handles the long-range structure of 1-D waveform with a dilated 2-D convolutional architecture, while modeling the local variations using expressive autoregressive functions. WaveFlow provides a unified view of likelihood-based models for 1-D data, including WaveNet and WaveGlow as special cases. It generates high-fidelity speech as WaveNet, while synthesizing several orders of magnitude faster as it only requires a few sequential steps to generate very long waveforms with hundreds of thousands of time-steps. Furthermore, it can significantly reduce the likelihood gap that has existed between autoregressive models and flow-based models for efficient synthesis. Finally, our small-footprint WaveFlow has only 5.91M parameters, which is 15times smaller than WaveGlow. It can generate 22.05 kHz high-fidelity audio 42.6times faster than real-time (at a rate of 939.3 kHz) on a V100 GPU without engineered inference kernels.

In this work, we propose Dimple, the first Discrete Diffusion Multimodal Large Language Model (DMLLM). We observe that training with a purely discrete diffusion approach leads to significant training instability, suboptimal performance, and severe length bias issues. To address these challenges, we design a novel training paradigm that combines an initial autoregressive phase with a subsequent diffusion phase. This approach yields the Dimple-7B model, trained on the same dataset and using a similar training pipeline as LLaVA-NEXT. Dimple-7B ultimately surpasses LLaVA-NEXT in performance by 3.9%, demonstrating that DMLLM can achieve performance comparable to that of autoregressive models. To improve inference efficiency, we propose a decoding strategy termed confident decoding, which dynamically adjusts the number of tokens generated at each step, significantly reducing the number of generation iterations. In autoregressive models, the number of forward iterations during generation equals the response length. With confident decoding, however, the number of iterations needed by Dimple is even only text{response length}{3}. We also re-implement the prefilling technique in autoregressive models and demonstrate that it does not significantly impact performance on most benchmark evaluations, while offering a speedup of 1.5x to 7x. Additionally, we explore Dimple's capability to precisely control its response using structure priors. These priors enable structured responses in a manner distinct from instruction-based or chain-of-thought prompting, and allow fine-grained control over response format and length, which is difficult to achieve in autoregressive models. Overall, this work validates the feasibility and advantages of DMLLM and enhances its inference efficiency and controllability. Code and models are available at https://github.com/yu-rp/Dimple.

We report a flexible multi-modal mechanics language model, MeLM, applied to solve various nonlinear forward and inverse problems, that can deal with a set of instructions, numbers and microstructure data. The framework is applied to various examples including bio-inspired hierarchical honeycomb design, carbon nanotube mechanics, and protein unfolding. In spite of the flexible nature of the model-which allows us to easily incorporate diverse materials, scales, and mechanical features-it performs well across disparate forward and inverse tasks. Based on an autoregressive attention-model, MeLM effectively represents a large multi-particle system consisting of hundreds of millions of neurons, where the interaction potentials are discovered through graph-forming self-attention mechanisms that are then used to identify relationships from emergent structures, while taking advantage of synergies discovered in the training data. We show that the model can solve complex degenerate mechanics design problems and determine novel material architectures across a range of hierarchical levels, providing an avenue for materials discovery and analysis. Looking beyond the demonstrations reported in this paper, we discuss other opportunities in applied mechanics and general considerations about the use of large language models in modeling, design, and analysis that can span a broad spectrum of material properties from mechanical, thermal, optical, to electronic.

We introduce OneCAT, a unified multimodal model that seamlessly integrates understanding, generation, and editing within a novel, pure decoder-only transformer architecture. Our framework uniquely eliminates the need for external components such as Vision Transformers (ViT) or vision tokenizer during inference, leading to significant efficiency gains, especially for high-resolution inputs. This is achieved through a modality-specific Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) structure trained with a single autoregressive (AR) objective, which also natively supports dynamic resolutions. Furthermore, we pioneer a multi-scale visual autoregressive mechanism within the Large Language Model (LLM) that drastically reduces decoding steps compared to diffusion-based methods while maintaining state-of-the-art performance. Our findings demonstrate the powerful potential of pure autoregressive modeling as a sufficient and elegant foundation for unified multimodal intelligence. As a result, OneCAT sets a new performance standard, outperforming existing open-source unified multimodal models across benchmarks for multimodal generation, editing, and understanding.

We present STARFlow, a scalable generative model based on normalizing flows that achieves strong performance in high-resolution image synthesis. The core of STARFlow is Transformer Autoregressive Flow (TARFlow), which combines the expressive power of normalizing flows with the structured modeling capabilities of Autoregressive Transformers. We first establish the theoretical universality of TARFlow for modeling continuous distributions. Building on this foundation, we introduce several key architectural and algorithmic innovations to significantly enhance scalability: (1) a deep-shallow design, wherein a deep Transformer block captures most of the model representational capacity, complemented by a few shallow Transformer blocks that are computationally efficient yet substantially beneficial; (2) modeling in the latent space of pretrained autoencoders, which proves more effective than direct pixel-level modeling; and (3) a novel guidance algorithm that significantly boosts sample quality. Crucially, our model remains an end-to-end normalizing flow, enabling exact maximum likelihood training in continuous spaces without discretization. STARFlow achieves competitive performance in both class-conditional and text-conditional image generation tasks, approaching state-of-the-art diffusion models in sample quality. To our knowledge, this work is the first successful demonstration of normalizing flows operating effectively at this scale and resolution.

We completely discard the conventional spatial prior in image representation and introduce a novel discrete visual tokenizer: Self-consistency Tokenizer (Selftok). At its design core, we compose an autoregressive (AR) prior -- mirroring the causal structure of language -- into visual tokens by using the reverse diffusion process of image generation. The AR property makes Selftok fundamentally distinct from traditional spatial tokens in the following two key ways: - Selftok offers an elegant and minimalist approach to unify diffusion and AR for vision-language models (VLMs): By representing images with Selftok tokens, we can train a VLM using a purely discrete autoregressive architecture -- like that in LLMs -- without requiring additional modules or training objectives. - We theoretically show that the AR prior satisfies the Bellman equation, whereas the spatial prior does not. Therefore, Selftok supports reinforcement learning (RL) for visual generation with effectiveness comparable to that achieved in LLMs. Besides the AR property, Selftok is also a SoTA tokenizer that achieves a favorable trade-off between high-quality reconstruction and compression rate. We use Selftok to build a pure AR VLM for both visual comprehension and generation tasks. Impressively, without using any text-image training pairs, a simple policy gradient RL working in the visual tokens can significantly boost the visual generation benchmark, surpassing all the existing models by a large margin. Therefore, we believe that Selftok effectively addresses the long-standing challenge that visual tokens cannot support effective RL. When combined with the well-established strengths of RL in LLMs, this brings us one step closer to realizing a truly multimodal LLM. Project Page: https://selftok-team.github.io/report/.

We introduce SPAFormer, an innovative model designed to overcome the combinatorial explosion challenge in the 3D Part Assembly (3D-PA) task. This task requires accurate prediction of each part's poses in sequential steps. As the number of parts increases, the possible assembly combinations increase exponentially, leading to a combinatorial explosion that severely hinders the efficacy of 3D-PA. SPAFormer addresses this problem by leveraging weak constraints from assembly sequences, effectively reducing the solution space's complexity. Since the sequence of parts conveys construction rules similar to sentences structured through words, our model explores both parallel and autoregressive generation. We further strengthen SPAFormer through knowledge enhancement strategies that utilize the attributes of parts and their sequence information, enabling it to capture the inherent assembly pattern and relationships among sequentially ordered parts. We also construct a more challenging benchmark named PartNet-Assembly covering 21 varied categories to more comprehensively validate the effectiveness of SPAFormer. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior generalization capabilities of SPAFormer, particularly with multi-tasking and in scenarios requiring long-horizon assembly. Code is available at https://github.com/xuboshen/SPAFormer.

Modern Language Models (LMs) owe much of their success to masked causal attention, the backbone of Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT) models. Although GPTs can process the entire user prompt at once, the causal masking is applied to all input tokens step-by-step, mimicking the generation process. This imposes an unnecessary constraint during the initial "prefill" phase when the model processes the input prompt and generates the internal representations before producing any output tokens. In this work, attention is masked based on the known block structure at the prefill phase, followed by the conventional token-by-token autoregressive process after that. For example, in a typical chat prompt, the system prompt is treated as one block, and the user prompt as the next one. Each of these is treated as a unit for the purpose of masking, such that the first tokens in each block can access the subsequent tokens in a non-causal manner. Then, the model answer is generated in the conventional causal manner. This Segment-by-Segment scheme entails no additional computational overhead. When integrating it into models such as Llama and Qwen, state-of-the-art performance is consistently achieved.

Advanced autoregressive models have reshaped multimodal AI. However, their transformative potential in medical imaging remains largely untapped due to the absence of a unified visual tokenizer -- one capable of capturing fine-grained visual structures for faithful image reconstruction and realistic image synthesis, as well as rich semantics for accurate diagnosis and image interpretation. To this end, we present MedITok, the first unified tokenizer tailored for medical images, encoding both low-level structural details and high-level clinical semantics within a unified latent space. To balance these competing objectives, we introduce a novel two-stage training framework: a visual representation alignment stage that cold-starts the tokenizer reconstruction learning with a visual semantic constraint, followed by a textual semantic representation alignment stage that infuses detailed clinical semantics into the latent space. Trained on the meticulously collected large-scale dataset with over 30 million medical images and 2 million image-caption pairs, MedITok achieves state-of-the-art performance on more than 30 datasets across 9 imaging modalities and 4 different tasks. By providing a unified token space for autoregressive modeling, MedITok supports a wide range of tasks in clinical diagnostics and generative healthcare applications. Model and code will be made publicly available at: https://github.com/Masaaki-75/meditok.

In this paper we propose a novel model for unconditional audio generation based on generating one audio sample at a time. We show that our model, which profits from combining memory-less modules, namely autoregressive multilayer perceptrons, and stateful recurrent neural networks in a hierarchical structure is able to capture underlying sources of variations in the temporal sequences over very long time spans, on three datasets of different nature. Human evaluation on the generated samples indicate that our model is preferred over competing models. We also show how each component of the model contributes to the exhibited performance.

Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. By working through a series of purely mental steps, we can make inferences we would not be capable of making directly -- despite the fact that we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate a series of intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they otherwise would. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences in order to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training. We prove that there will exist a "reasoning gap", where reasoning through intermediate variables improves inference, for the simple case of an autoregressive density estimator trained on local samples from a chain-structured probabilistic model. We then test our hypothesis empirically in more complex models, training an autoregressive language model on samples from Bayes nets but only including a subset of variables in each sample. We test language models' ability to match conditional probabilities with and without intermediate reasoning steps, finding that intermediate steps are only helpful when the training data is locally structured with respect to dependencies between variables and that the combination of locally-structured observations and reasoning is much more data-efficient than training on all variables. Our results illustrate how the effectiveness of reasoning step by step is rooted in the local statistical structure of the training data.

We performed variability analysis of the multiwavelength light curves for the flat-spectrum radio quasar PKS 0727-11. Using the generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram, we identified a possible quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) of sim 168.6 days (persisted for 6 cycles, with a significance of 3.8sigma) in the gamma-ray light curve during the flare period (MJD 54687-55738). It is the first time that periodic variations have been detected in this source, and further supported by other methods: weighted wavelet z-transform, phase dispersion minimization, REDFIT, autoregressive integrated moving average model, and structure function analysis. Cross-correlation analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between multi-band light variations, indicating that gamma-ray and radio flares may originate from the same disturbance, and the distance between the emission regions of gamma-ray and radio flares is calculated based on the time lag. We demonstrate that QPO arising from the non-ballistic helical jet motion driven by the orbital motion in a supermassive binary black hole is a plausible physical explanation. In this scenario, the estimated mass of the primary black hole is Msim3.66times10^8-5.79times10^{9}M_odot.

Recent research on integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) typically follows two approaches: LLM-centered models, which convert graph data into tokens for LLM processing, and GNN-centered models, which use LLMs to encode text features into node and edge representations for GNN input. LLM-centered models often struggle to capture graph structures effectively, while GNN-centered models compress variable-length textual data into fixed-size vectors, limiting their ability to understand complex semantics. Additionally, GNN-centered approaches require converting tasks into a uniform, manually-designed format, restricting them to classification tasks and preventing language output. To address these limitations, we introduce a new architecture that deeply integrates GNN with LLM, featuring three key innovations: (1) Structure-Aware Transformers, which incorporate GNN's message-passing capabilities directly into LLM's transformer layers, allowing simultaneous processing of textual and structural information and generating outputs from both GNN and LLM; (2) Graph-Text Cross-Attention, which processes full, uncompressed text from graph nodes and edges, ensuring complete semantic integration; and (3) GNN-LLM Twin Predictor, enabling LLM's flexible autoregressive generation alongside GNN's scalable one-pass prediction. GL-Fusion achieves outstand performance on various tasks. Notably, it achieves state-of-the-art performance on OGBN-Arxiv and OGBG-Code2.

Existing autoregressive (AR) image generative models use a token-by-token generation schema. That is, they predict a per-token probability distribution and sample the next token from that distribution. The main challenge is how to model the complex distribution of high-dimensional tokens. Previous methods either are too simplistic to fit the distribution or result in slow generation speed. Instead of fitting the distribution of the whole tokens, we explore using a AR model to generate each token in a feature-by-feature way, i.e., taking the generated features as input and generating the next feature. Based on that, we propose ARINAR (AR-in-AR), a bi-level AR model. The outer AR layer take previous tokens as input, predicts a condition vector z for the next token. The inner layer, conditional on z, generates features of the next token autoregressively. In this way, the inner layer only needs to model the distribution of a single feature, for example, using a simple Gaussian Mixture Model. On the ImageNet 256x256 image generation task, ARINAR-B with 213M parameters achieves an FID of 2.75, which is comparable to the state-of-the-art MAR-B model (FID=2.31), while five times faster than the latter.

Autoregressive models have achieved impressive results over a wide range of domains in terms of generation quality and downstream task performance. In the continuous domain, a key factor behind this success is the usage of quantized latent spaces (e.g., obtained via VQ-VAE autoencoders), which allow for dimensionality reduction and faster inference times. However, using existing pre-trained models to perform new non-trivial tasks is difficult since it requires additional fine-tuning or extensive training to elicit prompting. This paper introduces LASS as a way to perform vector-quantized Latent Autoregressive Source Separation (i.e., de-mixing an input signal into its constituent sources) without requiring additional gradient-based optimization or modifications of existing models. Our separation method relies on the Bayesian formulation in which the autoregressive models are the priors, and a discrete (non-parametric) likelihood function is constructed by performing frequency counts over latent sums of addend tokens. We test our method on images and audio with several sampling strategies (e.g., ancestral, beam search) showing competitive results with existing approaches in terms of separation quality while offering at the same time significant speedups in terms of inference time and scalability to higher dimensional data.

Autoregressive (AR) models for image generation typically adopt a two-stage paradigm of vector quantization and raster-scan ``next-token prediction", inspired by its great success in language modeling. However, due to the huge modality gap, image autoregressive models may require a systematic reevaluation from two perspectives: tokenizer format and regression direction. In this paper, we introduce the frequency progressive autoregressive (FAR) paradigm and instantiate FAR with the continuous tokenizer. Specifically, we identify spectral dependency as the desirable regression direction for FAR, wherein higher-frequency components build upon the lower one to progressively construct a complete image. This design seamlessly fits the causality requirement for autoregressive models and preserves the unique spatial locality of image data. Besides, we delve into the integration of FAR and the continuous tokenizer, introducing a series of techniques to address optimization challenges and improve the efficiency of training and inference processes. We demonstrate the efficacy of FAR through comprehensive experiments on the ImageNet dataset and verify its potential on text-to-image generation.

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special cases of ARDMs under mild assumptions. ARDMs are simple to implement and easy to train. Unlike standard ARMs, they do not require causal masking of model representations, and can be trained using an efficient objective similar to modern probabilistic diffusion models that scales favourably to highly-dimensional data. At test time, ARDMs support parallel generation which can be adapted to fit any given generation budget. We find that ARDMs require significantly fewer steps than discrete diffusion models to attain the same performance. Finally, we apply ARDMs to lossless compression, and show that they are uniquely suited to this task. Contrary to existing approaches based on bits-back coding, ARDMs obtain compelling results not only on complete datasets, but also on compressing single data points. Moreover, this can be done using a modest number of network calls for (de)compression due to the model's adaptable parallel generation.

Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous Autoregressive Models (CAMs) can suffer from a decline in generation quality over extended sequences due to error accumulation during inference. We introduce a novel method to address this issue by injecting random noise into the input embeddings during training. This procedure makes the model robust against varying error levels at inference. We further reduce error accumulation through an inference procedure that introduces low-level noise. Experiments on musical audio generation show that CAM substantially outperforms existing autoregressive and non-autoregressive approaches while preserving audio quality over extended sequences. This work paves the way for generating continuous embeddings in a purely autoregressive setting, opening new possibilities for real-time and interactive generative applications.

Autoregressive decoding is the only part of sequence-to-sequence models that prevents them from massive parallelization at inference time. Non-autoregressive models enable the decoder to generate all output symbols independently in parallel. We present a novel non-autoregressive architecture based on connectionist temporal classification and evaluate it on the task of neural machine translation. Unlike other non-autoregressive methods which operate in several steps, our model can be trained end-to-end. We conduct experiments on the WMT English-Romanian and English-German datasets. Our models achieve a significant speedup over the autoregressive models, keeping the translation quality comparable to other non-autoregressive models.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Autoregressive (AR) models have reformulated image generation as next-token prediction, demonstrating remarkable potential and emerging as strong competitors to diffusion models. However, control-to-image generation, akin to ControlNet, remains largely unexplored within AR models. Although a natural approach, inspired by advancements in Large Language Models, is to tokenize control images into tokens and prefill them into the autoregressive model before decoding image tokens, it still falls short in generation quality compared to ControlNet and suffers from inefficiency. To this end, we introduce ControlAR, an efficient and effective framework for integrating spatial controls into autoregressive image generation models. Firstly, we explore control encoding for AR models and propose a lightweight control encoder to transform spatial inputs (e.g., canny edges or depth maps) into control tokens. Then ControlAR exploits the conditional decoding method to generate the next image token conditioned on the per-token fusion between control and image tokens, similar to positional encodings. Compared to prefilling tokens, using conditional decoding significantly strengthens the control capability of AR models but also maintains the model's efficiency. Furthermore, the proposed ControlAR surprisingly empowers AR models with arbitrary-resolution image generation via conditional decoding and specific controls. Extensive experiments can demonstrate the controllability of the proposed ControlAR for the autoregressive control-to-image generation across diverse inputs, including edges, depths, and segmentation masks. Furthermore, both quantitative and qualitative results indicate that ControlAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art controllable diffusion models, e.g., ControlNet++. Code, models, and demo will soon be available at https://github.com/hustvl/ControlAR.

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

This paper introduces an improved duration informed attention neural network (DurIAN-E) for expressive and high-fidelity text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis. Inherited from the original DurIAN model, an auto-regressive model structure in which the alignments between the input linguistic information and the output acoustic features are inferred from a duration model is adopted. Meanwhile the proposed DurIAN-E utilizes multiple stacked SwishRNN-based Transformer blocks as linguistic encoders. Style-Adaptive Instance Normalization (SAIN) layers are exploited into frame-level encoders to improve the modeling ability of expressiveness. A denoiser incorporating both denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) for mel-spectrograms and SAIN modules is conducted to further improve the synthetic speech quality and expressiveness. Experimental results prove that the proposed expressive TTS model in this paper can achieve better performance than the state-of-the-art approaches in both subjective mean opinion score (MOS) and preference tests.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

This paper presents Randomized AutoRegressive modeling (RAR) for visual generation, which sets a new state-of-the-art performance on the image generation task while maintaining full compatibility with language modeling frameworks. The proposed RAR is simple: during a standard autoregressive training process with a next-token prediction objective, the input sequence-typically ordered in raster form-is randomly permuted into different factorization orders with a probability r, where r starts at 1 and linearly decays to 0 over the course of training. This annealing training strategy enables the model to learn to maximize the expected likelihood over all factorization orders and thus effectively improve the model's capability of modeling bidirectional contexts. Importantly, RAR preserves the integrity of the autoregressive modeling framework, ensuring full compatibility with language modeling while significantly improving performance in image generation. On the ImageNet-256 benchmark, RAR achieves an FID score of 1.48, not only surpassing prior state-of-the-art autoregressive image generators but also outperforming leading diffusion-based and masked transformer-based methods. Code and models will be made available at https://github.com/bytedance/1d-tokenizer

Autoregressive patch-based image generation has recently shown competitive results in terms of image quality and scalability. It can also be easily integrated and scaled within Vision-Language models. Nevertheless, autoregressive models require a defined order for patch generation. While a natural order based on the dictation of the words makes sense for text generation, there is no inherent generation order that exists for image generation. Traditionally, a raster-scan order (from top-left to bottom-right) guides autoregressive image generation models. In this paper, we argue that this order is suboptimal, as it fails to respect the causality of the image content: for instance, when conditioned on a visual description of a sunset, an autoregressive model may generate clouds before the sun, even though the color of clouds should depend on the color of the sun and not the inverse. In this work, we show that first by training a model to generate patches in any-given-order, we can infer both the content and the location (order) of each patch during generation. Secondly, we use these extracted orders to finetune the any-given-order model to produce better-quality images. Through our experiments, we show on two datasets that this new generation method produces better images than the traditional raster-scan approach, with similar training costs and no extra annotations.

Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of high-quality visual representations in image generation and have highlighted the limitations of generative models in image understanding. As a generative paradigm originally designed for natural language, autoregressive models face similar challenges. In this work, we present the first systematic investigation into the mechanisms of applying the next-token prediction paradigm to the visual domain. We identify three key properties that hinder the learning of high-level visual semantics: local and conditional dependence, inter-step semantic inconsistency, and spatial invariance deficiency. We show that these issues can be effectively addressed by introducing self-supervised objectives during training, leading to a novel training framework, Self-guided Training for AutoRegressive models (ST-AR). Without relying on pre-trained representation models, ST-AR significantly enhances the image understanding ability of autoregressive models and leads to improved generation quality. Specifically, ST-AR brings approximately 42% FID improvement for LlamaGen-L and 49% FID improvement for LlamaGen-XL, while maintaining the same sampling strategy.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Traditional models, such as auto-regression fitted with least squares (Classic-AR) can model time-series with a concise and interpretable model. When dealing with long-range dependencies, Classic-AR models can become intractably slow to fit for large data. Recently, sequence-to-sequence models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks, which were originally intended for natural language processing, have become popular for time-series. However, they can be overly complex for typical time-series data and lack interpretability. A scalable and interpretable model is needed to bridge the statistical and deep learning-based approaches. As a first step towards this goal, we propose modelling AR-process dynamics using a feed-forward neural network approach, termed AR-Net. We show that AR-Net is as interpretable as Classic-AR but also scales to long-range dependencies. Our results lead to three major conclusions: First, AR-Net learns identical AR-coefficients as Classic-AR, thus being equally interpretable. Second, the computational complexity with respect to the order of the AR process, is linear for AR-Net as compared to a quadratic for Classic-AR. This makes it possible to model long-range dependencies within fine granularity data. Third, by introducing regularization, AR-Net automatically selects and learns sparse AR-coefficients. This eliminates the need to know the exact order of the AR-process and allows to learn sparse weights for a model with long-range dependencies.

Autoregressive (AR) models are promising for image generation, yet continuous-token AR variants often trail latent diffusion and masked-generation models. The core issue is heterogeneous variance in VAE latents, which is amplified during AR decoding, especially under classifier-free guidance (CFG), and can cause variance collapse. We propose SphereAR to address this issue. Its core design is to constrain all AR inputs and outputs -- including after CFG -- to lie on a fixed-radius hypersphere (constant ell_2 norm), leveraging hyperspherical VAEs. Our theoretical analysis shows that hyperspherical constraint removes the scale component (the primary cause of variance collapse), thereby stabilizing AR decoding. Empirically, on ImageNet generation, SphereAR-H (943M) sets a new state of the art for AR models, achieving FID 1.34. Even at smaller scales, SphereAR-L (479M) reaches FID 1.54 and SphereAR-B (208M) reaches 1.92, matching or surpassing much larger baselines such as MAR-H (943M, 1.55) and VAR-d30 (2B, 1.92). To our knowledge, this is the first time a pure next-token AR image generator with raster order surpasses diffusion and masked-generation models at comparable parameter scales.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful approach for visual generation but suffer from slow inference speed due to their sequential token-by-token prediction process. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach for parallelized autoregressive visual generation that improves generation efficiency while preserving the advantages of autoregressive modeling. Our key insight is that parallel generation depends on visual token dependencies-tokens with weak dependencies can be generated in parallel, while strongly dependent adjacent tokens are difficult to generate together, as their independent sampling may lead to inconsistencies. Based on this observation, we develop a parallel generation strategy that generates distant tokens with weak dependencies in parallel while maintaining sequential generation for strongly dependent local tokens. Our approach can be seamlessly integrated into standard autoregressive models without modifying the architecture or tokenizer. Experiments on ImageNet and UCF-101 demonstrate that our method achieves a 3.6x speedup with comparable quality and up to 9.5x speedup with minimal quality degradation across both image and video generation tasks. We hope this work will inspire future research in efficient visual generation and unified autoregressive modeling. Project page: https://epiphqny.github.io/PAR-project.

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success in sequential data generation, particularly in NLP, but their extension to continuous-domain image generation presents significant challenges. Recent work, the masked autoregressive model (MAR), bypasses quantization by modeling per-token distributions in continuous spaces using a diffusion head but suffers from slow inference due to the high computational cost of the iterative denoising process. To address this, we propose the Fast AutoRegressive model (FAR), a novel framework that replaces MAR's diffusion head with a lightweight shortcut head, enabling efficient few-step sampling while preserving autoregressive principles. Additionally, FAR seamlessly integrates with causal Transformers, extending them from discrete to continuous token generation without requiring architectural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that FAR achieves 2.3times faster inference than MAR while maintaining competitive FID and IS scores. This work establishes the first efficient autoregressive paradigm for high-fidelity continuous-space image generation, bridging the critical gap between quality and scalability in visual autoregressive modeling.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Prevailing autoregressive (AR) models for text-to-image generation either rely on heavy, computationally-intensive diffusion models to process continuous image tokens, or employ vector quantization (VQ) to obtain discrete tokens with quantization loss. In this paper, we push the autoregressive paradigm forward with NextStep-1, a 14B autoregressive model paired with a 157M flow matching head, training on discrete text tokens and continuous image tokens with next-token prediction objectives. NextStep-1 achieves state-of-the-art performance for autoregressive models in text-to-image generation tasks, exhibiting strong capabilities in high-fidelity image synthesis. Furthermore, our method shows strong performance in image editing, highlighting the power and versatility of our unified approach. To facilitate open research, we will release our code and models to the community.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

This paper introduces a novel training methodology that enables a small Transformer model to generalize the addition of two-digit numbers to numbers with unseen lengths of digits. The proposed approach employs an autoregressive generation technique, processing from right to left, which mimics a common manual method for adding large numbers. To the best of my knowledge, this methodology has not been previously explored in the literature. All results are reproducible, and the corresponding R code is available at: https://github.com/AGPatriota/ALGA-R/.

In this note we examine the autoregressive generalization of the FNet algorithm, in which self-attention layers from the standard Transformer architecture are substituted with a trivial sparse-uniformsampling procedure based on Fourier transforms. Using the Wikitext-103 benchmark, we demonstratethat FNetAR retains state-of-the-art performance (25.8 ppl) on the task of causal language modelingcompared to a Transformer-XL baseline (24.2 ppl) with only half the number self-attention layers,thus providing further evidence for the superfluity of deep neural networks with heavily compoundedattention mechanisms. The autoregressive Fourier transform could likely be used for parameterreduction on most Transformer-based time-series prediction models.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Autoregressive (AR) models have emerged as powerful tools for image generation by modeling images as sequences of discrete tokens. While Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) has been adopted to improve conditional generation, its application in AR models faces two key issues: guidance diminishing, where the conditional-unconditional gap quickly vanishes as decoding progresses, and over-guidance, where strong conditions distort visual coherence. To address these challenges, we propose SoftCFG, an uncertainty-guided inference method that distributes adaptive perturbations across all tokens in the sequence. The key idea behind SoftCFG is to let each generated token contribute certainty-weighted guidance, ensuring that the signal persists across steps while resolving conflicts between text guidance and visual context. To further stabilize long-sequence generation, we introduce Step Normalization, which bounds cumulative perturbations of SoftCFG. Our method is training-free, model-agnostic, and seamlessly integrates with existing AR pipelines. Experiments show that SoftCFG significantly improves image quality over standard CFG and achieves state-of-the-art FID on ImageNet 256*256 among autoregressive models.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

While autoregressive (AR) modeling has recently emerged as a new paradigm in visual generation, its practical adoption is severely constrained by the slow inference speed of per-token generation, which often requires thousands of steps to produce a single sample. To address this challenge, we propose MC-SJD, a training-free, lossless parallel decoding framework designed to accelerate AR visual generation by extending the recently introduced Speculative Jacobi Decoding (SJD). Although SJD shows strong potential for accelerating AR generation, we demonstrate that token instability across iterations significantly reduces the acceptance rate, a limitation that primarily arises from the independent sampling process used during draft token generation. To overcome this, we introduce MC-SJD, an information-theoretic approach based on coupling, which substantially accelerates standard SJD by maximizing the probability of sampling identical draft tokens across consecutive iterations, all while preserving its lossless property. Remarkably, this method requires only a single-line modification to the existing algorithm, yet achieves substantial performance gains, delivering up to a ~4.2x acceleration in image generation and ~13.3x acceleration in video generation compared to standard AR decoding, without any degradation in output quality.

We present Symphony, an E(3)-equivariant autoregressive generative model for 3D molecular geometries that iteratively builds a molecule from molecular fragments. Existing autoregressive models such as G-SchNet and G-SphereNet for molecules utilize rotationally invariant features to respect the 3D symmetries of molecules. In contrast, Symphony uses message-passing with higher-degree E(3)-equivariant features. This allows a novel representation of probability distributions via spherical harmonic signals to efficiently model the 3D geometry of molecules. We show that Symphony is able to accurately generate small molecules from the QM9 dataset, outperforming existing autoregressive models and approaching the performance of diffusion models.

AutoRegressive (AR) models have made notable progress in image generation, with Masked AutoRegressive (MAR) models gaining attention for their efficient parallel decoding. However, MAR models have traditionally underperformed when compared to standard AR models. This study refines the MAR architecture to improve image generation quality. We begin by evaluating various image tokenizers to identify the most effective one. Subsequently, we introduce an improved Bidirectional LLaMA architecture by replacing causal attention with bidirectional attention and incorporating 2D RoPE, which together form our advanced model, MaskGIL. Scaled from 111M to 1.4B parameters, MaskGIL achieves a FID score of 3.71, matching state-of-the-art AR models in the ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, while requiring only 8 inference steps compared to the 256 steps of AR models. Furthermore, we develop a text-driven MaskGIL model with 775M parameters for generating images from text at various resolutions. Beyond image generation, MaskGIL extends to accelerate AR-based generation and enable real-time speech-to-image conversion. Our codes and models are available at https://github.com/synbol/MaskGIL.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Recently, autoregressive (AR) image models have demonstrated remarkable generative capabilities, positioning themselves as a compelling alternative to diffusion models. However, their sequential nature leads to long inference times, limiting their practical scalability. In this work, we introduce Grouped Speculative Decoding (GSD), a novel, training-free acceleration method for AR image models. While recent studies have explored Speculative Decoding (SD) as a means to speed up AR image generation, existing approaches either provide only modest acceleration or require additional training. Our in-depth analysis reveals a fundamental difference between language and image tokens: image tokens exhibit inherent redundancy and diversity, meaning multiple tokens can convey valid semantics. However, traditional SD methods are designed to accept only a single most-likely token, which fails to leverage this difference, leading to excessive false-negative rejections. To address this, we propose a new SD strategy that evaluates clusters of visually valid tokens rather than relying on a single target token. Additionally, we observe that static clustering based on embedding distance is ineffective, which motivates our dynamic GSD approach. Extensive experiments show that GSD accelerates AR image models by an average of 3.7x while preserving image quality-all without requiring any additional training. The source code is available at https://github.com/junhyukso/GSD

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) has emerged as a promising approach in image generation, offering competitive potential and performance comparable to diffusion-based models. However, current AR-based visual generation models require substantial computational resources, limiting their applicability on resource-constrained devices. To address this issue, we conducted analysis and identified significant redundancy in three dimensions of the VAR model: (1) the attention map, (2) the attention outputs when using classifier free guidance, and (3) the data precision. Correspondingly, we proposed efficient attention mechanism and low-bit quantization method to enhance the efficiency of VAR models while maintaining performance. With negligible performance lost (less than 0.056 FID increase), we could achieve 85.2% reduction in attention computation, 50% reduction in overall memory and 1.5x latency reduction. To ensure deployment feasibility, we developed efficient training-free compression techniques and analyze the deployment feasibility and efficiency gain of each technique.

Analysis and prediction of stock market time series data has attracted considerable interest from the research community over the last decade. Rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, and availability of high-performance hardware has made it possible to process and analyze high volume stock market time series data effectively, in real-time. Among many other important characteristics and behavior of such data, forecasting is an area which has witnessed considerable focus. In this work, we have used time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the trend, the seasonal component, and the random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed five approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed decomposition approaches of time series and the efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a random component and a sharply changing trend component in the time-series.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Radiotherapy often involves a prolonged treatment period. During this time, patients may experience organ motion due to breathing and other physiological factors. Predicting and modeling this motion before treatment is crucial for ensuring precise radiation delivery. However, existing pre-treatment organ motion prediction methods primarily rely on deformation analysis using principal component analysis (PCA), which is highly dependent on registration quality and struggles to capture periodic temporal dynamics for motion modeling.In this paper, we observe that organ motion prediction closely resembles an autoregressive process, a technique widely used in natural language processing (NLP). Autoregressive models predict the next token based on previous inputs, naturally aligning with our objective of predicting future organ motion phases. Building on this insight, we reformulate organ motion prediction as an autoregressive process to better capture patient-specific motion patterns. Specifically, we acquire 4D CT scans for each patient before treatment, with each sequence comprising multiple 3D CT phases. These phases are fed into the autoregressive model to predict future phases based on prior phase motion patterns. We evaluate our method on a real-world test set of 4D CT scans from 50 patients who underwent radiotherapy at our institution and a public dataset containing 4D CT scans from 20 patients (some with multiple scans), totaling over 1,300 3D CT phases. The performance in predicting the motion of the lung and heart surpasses existing benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing motion dynamics from CT images. These results highlight the potential of our method to improve pre-treatment planning in radiotherapy, enabling more precise and adaptive radiation delivery.

With the rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, the research community has started spending considerable effort in technical analysis of such data. Forecasting is also an area which has witnessed a paradigm shift in its approach. In this work, we have used the time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the Trend, the Seasonal component, and the Random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed three approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. The results clearly demonstrate the accuracy of our decomposition results and efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a dominant Random component in the time series.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

In recent years, masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising alternative approach for generative modeling over discrete domains. Compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), MDMs trade off complexity at training time with flexibility at inference time. At training time, they must learn to solve an exponentially large number of infilling problems, but at inference time, they can decode tokens in essentially arbitrary order. In this work, we closely examine these two competing effects. On the training front, we theoretically and empirically demonstrate that MDMs indeed train on computationally intractable subproblems compared to their autoregressive counterparts. On the inference front, we show that a suitable strategy for adaptively choosing the token decoding order significantly enhances the capabilities of MDMs, allowing them to sidestep hard subproblems. On logic puzzles like Sudoku, we show that adaptive inference can boost solving accuracy in pretrained MDMs from <7% to approx 90%, even outperforming ARMs with 7times as many parameters and that were explicitly trained via teacher forcing to learn the right order of decoding.

Time series forecasting has been a widely explored task of great importance in many applications. However, it is common that real-world time series data are recorded in a short time period, which results in a big gap between the deep model and the limited and noisy time series. In this work, we propose to address the time series forecasting problem with generative modeling and propose a bidirectional variational auto-encoder (BVAE) equipped with diffusion, denoise, and disentanglement, namely D3VAE. Specifically, a coupled diffusion probabilistic model is proposed to augment the time series data without increasing the aleatoric uncertainty and implement a more tractable inference process with BVAE. To ensure the generated series move toward the true target, we further propose to adapt and integrate the multiscale denoising score matching into the diffusion process for time series forecasting. In addition, to enhance the interpretability and stability of the prediction, we treat the latent variable in a multivariate manner and disentangle them on top of minimizing total correlation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that D3VAE outperforms competitive algorithms with remarkable margins. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleSpatial/tree/main/research/D3VAE.

We propose SDAR, a Synergistic Diffusion-Autoregression paradigm that unifies the training efficiency of autoregressive models with the parallel inference capability of diffusion. Instead of costly end-to-end diffusion training, SDAR performs a lightweight paradigm conversion that transforms a well-trained autoregressive (AR) model into a blockwise diffusion model through brief, data-efficient adaptation. During inference, SDAR generates sequences autoregressively across blocks for global coherence while decoding all tokens within each block in parallel via a discrete diffusion process. Extensive experiments show that AR models remain substantially more compute-efficient than masked diffusion models, providing a strong foundation for adaptation. Building on this insight, SDAR achieves efficient AR-to-diffusion conversion with minimal cost, preserving AR-level performance while enabling parallel generation. Scaling studies across dense and Mixture-of-Experts architectures confirm that SDAR scales without compromise: larger models exhibit stronger robustness to block size and decoding thresholds, yielding greater speedups without accuracy loss. Beyond efficiency, SDAR demonstrates enhanced reasoning and domain adaptability. Our 30B MoE model surpasses its AR counterpart on challenging scientific reasoning benchmarks such as GPQA and ChemBench, and gains further improvements under test-time scaling methods like majority voting and pass@k. Together, these results establish SDAR as a practical paradigm that combines the strengths of autoregression and diffusion for scalable, high-throughput reasoning.

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Directly modeling the explicit likelihood of the raw data distribution is key topic in the machine learning area, which achieves the scaling successes in Large Language Models by autoregressive modeling. However, continuous AR modeling over visual pixel data suffer from extremely long sequences and high-dimensional spaces. In this paper, we present FARMER, a novel end-to-end generative framework that unifies Normalizing Flows (NF) and Autoregressive (AR) models for tractable likelihood estimation and high-quality image synthesis directly from raw pixels. FARMER employs an invertible autoregressive flow to transform images into latent sequences, whose distribution is modeled implicitly by an autoregressive model. To address the redundancy and complexity in pixel-level modeling, we propose a self-supervised dimension reduction scheme that partitions NF latent channels into informative and redundant groups, enabling more effective and efficient AR modeling. Furthermore, we design a one-step distillation scheme to significantly accelerate inference speed and introduce a resampling-based classifier-free guidance algorithm to boost image generation quality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FARMER achieves competitive performance compared to existing pixel-based generative models while providing exact likelihoods and scalable training.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

The emergence of visual autoregressive (AR) models has revolutionized image generation while presenting new challenges for synthetic image detection. Unlike previous GAN or diffusion-based methods, AR models generate images through discrete token prediction, exhibiting both marked improvements in image synthesis quality and unique characteristics in their vector-quantized representations. In this paper, we propose to leverage Discrete Distribution Discrepancy-aware Quantization Error (D^3QE) for autoregressive-generated image detection that exploits the distinctive patterns and the frequency distribution bias of the codebook existing in real and fake images. We introduce a discrete distribution discrepancy-aware transformer that integrates dynamic codebook frequency statistics into its attention mechanism, fusing semantic features and quantization error latent. To evaluate our method, we construct a comprehensive dataset termed ARForensics covering 7 mainstream visual AR models. Experiments demonstrate superior detection accuracy and strong generalization of D^3QE across different AR models, with robustness to real-world perturbations. Code is available at https://github.com/Zhangyr2022/D3QE{https://github.com/Zhangyr2022/D3QE}.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Time series clustering promises to uncover hidden structural patterns in data with applications across healthcare, finance, industrial systems, and other critical domains. However, without validated ground truth information, researchers cannot objectively assess clustering quality or determine whether poor results stem from absent structures in the data, algorithmic limitations, or inappropriate validation methods, raising the question whether clustering is "more art than science" (Guyon et al., 2009). To address these challenges, we introduce CSTS (Correlation Structures in Time Series), a synthetic benchmark for evaluating the discovery of correlation structures in multivariate time series data. CSTS provides a clean benchmark that enables researchers to isolate and identify specific causes of clustering failures by differentiating between correlation structure deterioration and limitations of clustering algorithms and validation methods. Our contributions are: (1) a comprehensive benchmark for correlation structure discovery with distinct correlation structures, systematically varied data conditions, established performance thresholds, and recommended evaluation protocols; (2) empirical validation of correlation structure preservation showing moderate distortion from downsampling and minimal effects from distribution shifts and sparsification; and (3) an extensible data generation framework enabling structure-first clustering evaluation. A case study demonstrates CSTS's practical utility by identifying an algorithm's previously undocumented sensitivity to non-normal distributions, illustrating how the benchmark enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations. CSTS advances rigorous evaluation standards for correlation-based time series clustering.

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of time series, with each token formed by multiple variates of the same timestamp. However, Transformers are challenged in forecasting series with larger lookback windows due to performance degradation and computation explosion. Besides, the embedding for each temporal token fuses multiple variates that represent potential delayed events and distinct physical measurements, which may fail in learning variate-centric representations and result in meaningless attention maps. In this work, we reflect on the competent duties of Transformer components and repurpose the Transformer architecture without any modification to the basic components. We propose iTransformer that simply applies the attention and feed-forward network on the inverted dimensions. Specifically, the time points of individual series are embedded into variate tokens which are utilized by the attention mechanism to capture multivariate correlations; meanwhile, the feed-forward network is applied for each variate token to learn nonlinear representations. The iTransformer model achieves state-of-the-art on challenging real-world datasets, which further empowers the Transformer family with promoted performance, generalization ability across different variates, and better utilization of arbitrary lookback windows, making it a nice alternative as the fundamental backbone of time series forecasting. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/iTransformer.

Representation learning seeks to expose certain aspects of observed data in a learned representation that's amenable to downstream tasks like classification. For instance, a good representation for 2D images might be one that describes only global structure and discards information about detailed texture. In this paper, we present a simple but principled method to learn such global representations by combining Variational Autoencoder (VAE) with neural autoregressive models such as RNN, MADE and PixelRNN/CNN. Our proposed VAE model allows us to have control over what the global latent code can learn and , by designing the architecture accordingly, we can force the global latent code to discard irrelevant information such as texture in 2D images, and hence the VAE only "autoencodes" data in a lossy fashion. In addition, by leveraging autoregressive models as both prior distribution p(z) and decoding distribution p(x|z), we can greatly improve generative modeling performance of VAEs, achieving new state-of-the-art results on MNIST, OMNIGLOT and Caltech-101 Silhouettes density estimation tasks.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose TimeDART, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Recent advancements in large language models and their multi-modal extensions have demonstrated the effectiveness of unifying generation and understanding through autoregressive next-token prediction. However, despite the critical role of 3D structural generation and understanding ({3D GU}) in AI for science, these tasks have largely evolved independently, with autoregressive methods remaining underexplored. To bridge this gap, we introduce Uni-3DAR, a unified framework that seamlessly integrates {3D GU} tasks via autoregressive prediction. At its core, Uni-3DAR employs a novel hierarchical tokenization that compresses 3D space using an octree, leveraging the inherent sparsity of 3D structures. It then applies an additional tokenization for fine-grained structural details, capturing key attributes such as atom types and precise spatial coordinates in microscopic 3D structures. We further propose two optimizations to enhance efficiency and effectiveness. The first is a two-level subtree compression strategy, which reduces the octree token sequence by up to 8x. The second is a masked next-token prediction mechanism tailored for dynamically varying token positions, significantly boosting model performance. By combining these strategies, Uni-3DAR successfully unifies diverse {3D GU} tasks within a single autoregressive framework. Extensive experiments across multiple microscopic {3D GU} tasks, including molecules, proteins, polymers, and crystals, validate its effectiveness and versatility. Notably, Uni-3DAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art diffusion models by a substantial margin, achieving up to 256\% relative improvement while delivering inference speeds up to 21.8x faster. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/dptech-corp/Uni-3DAR.

Auto-Regressive (AR) models have achieved impressive results in 2D image generation by modeling joint distributions in the grid space. While this approach has been extended to the 3D domain for powerful shape generation, it still has two limitations: expensive computations on volumetric grids and ambiguous auto-regressive order along grid dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Improved Auto-regressive Model (ImAM) for 3D shape generation, which applies discrete representation learning based on a latent vector instead of volumetric grids. Our approach not only reduces computational costs but also preserves essential geometric details by learning the joint distribution in a more tractable order. Moreover, thanks to the simplicity of our model architecture, we can naturally extend it from unconditional to conditional generation by concatenating various conditioning inputs, such as point clouds, categories, images, and texts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ImAM can synthesize diverse and faithful shapes of multiple categories, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

Triangle meshes play a crucial role in 3D applications for efficient manipulation and rendering. While auto-regressive methods generate structured meshes by predicting discrete vertex tokens, they are often constrained by limited face counts and mesh incompleteness. To address these challenges, we propose DeepMesh, a framework that optimizes mesh generation through two key innovations: (1) an efficient pre-training strategy incorporating a novel tokenization algorithm, along with improvements in data curation and processing, and (2) the introduction of Reinforcement Learning (RL) into 3D mesh generation to achieve human preference alignment via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). We design a scoring standard that combines human evaluation with 3D metrics to collect preference pairs for DPO, ensuring both visual appeal and geometric accuracy. Conditioned on point clouds and images, DeepMesh generates meshes with intricate details and precise topology, outperforming state-of-the-art methods in both precision and quality. Project page: https://zhaorw02.github.io/DeepMesh/

Continuous-valued Autoregressive (AR) image generation models have demonstrated notable superiority over their discrete-token counterparts, showcasing considerable reconstruction quality and higher generation fidelity. However, the computational demands of the autoregressive framework result in significant inference overhead. While speculative decoding has proven effective in accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs), their adaptation to continuous-valued visual autoregressive models remains unexplored. This work generalizes the speculative decoding algorithm from discrete tokens to continuous space. By analyzing the intrinsic properties of output distribution, we establish a tailored acceptance criterion for the diffusion distributions prevalent in such models. To overcome the inconsistency that occurred in speculative decoding output distributions, we introduce denoising trajectory alignment and token pre-filling methods. Additionally, we identify the hard-to-sample distribution in the rejection phase. To mitigate this issue, we propose a meticulous acceptance-rejection sampling method with a proper upper bound, thereby circumventing complex integration. Experimental results show that our continuous speculative decoding achieves a remarkable 2.33times speed-up on off-the-shelf models while maintaining the output distribution. Codes will be available at https://github.com/MarkXCloud/CSpD

Graph generation has been dominated by autoregressive models due to their simplicity and effectiveness, despite their sensitivity to ordering. Yet diffusion models have garnered increasing attention, as they offer comparable performance while being permutation-invariant. Current graph diffusion models generate graphs in a one-shot fashion, but they require extra features and thousands of denoising steps to achieve optimal performance. We introduce PARD, a Permutation-invariant Auto Regressive Diffusion model that integrates diffusion models with autoregressive methods. PARD harnesses the effectiveness and efficiency of the autoregressive model while maintaining permutation invariance without ordering sensitivity. Specifically, we show that contrary to sets, elements in a graph are not entirely unordered and there is a unique partial order for nodes and edges. With this partial order, PARD generates a graph in a block-by-block, autoregressive fashion, where each block's probability is conditionally modeled by a shared diffusion model with an equivariant network. To ensure efficiency while being expressive, we further propose a higher-order graph transformer, which integrates transformer with PPGN. Like GPT, we extend the higher-order graph transformer to support parallel training of all blocks. Without any extra features, PARD achieves state-of-the-art performance on molecular and non-molecular datasets, and scales to large datasets like MOSES containing 1.9M molecules.

Multivariate time series forecasting tasks are usually conducted in a channel-dependent (CD) way since it can incorporate more variable-relevant information. However, it may also involve a lot of irrelevant variables, and this even leads to worse performance than the channel-independent (CI) strategy. This paper combines the strengths of both strategies and proposes the Deep Graph Clustering Transformer (DGCformer) for multivariate time series forecasting. Specifically, it first groups these relevant variables by a graph convolutional network integrated with an autoencoder, and a former-latter masked self-attention mechanism is then considered with the CD strategy being applied to each group of variables while the CI one for different groups. Extensive experimental results on eight datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method against state-of-the-art models, and our code will be publicly available upon acceptance.

Visual autoregressive models (VAR) have recently emerged as a promising class of generative models, achieving performance comparable to diffusion models in text-to-image generation tasks. While conditional generation has been widely explored, the ability to perform prompt-guided image editing without additional training is equally critical, as it supports numerous practical real-world applications. This paper investigates the text-to-image editing capabilities of VAR by introducing Visual AutoRegressive Inverse Noise (VARIN), the first noise inversion-based editing technique designed explicitly for VAR models. VARIN leverages a novel pseudo-inverse function for argmax sampling, named Location-aware Argmax Inversion (LAI), to generate inverse Gumbel noises. These inverse noises enable precise reconstruction of the source image and facilitate targeted, controllable edits aligned with textual prompts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that VARIN effectively modifies source images according to specified prompts while significantly preserving the original background and structural details, thus validating its efficacy as a practical editing approach.

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of extremely fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data. Complex algorithms for forecasting are now available for speedy execution over parallel architecture leading to fairly accurate results. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Consumer Durables sector and the Small Cap sector for the period January 2010 to December 2015 and proposed a decomposition approach for better understanding of the behavior of each of the time series. Our contention is that various sectors reveal different time series patterns and understanding them is essential for portfolio formation. Further, based on this structural analysis, we have also proposed several robust forecasting techniques and analyzed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our propositions.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Structured variational autoencoders (SVAEs) combine probabilistic graphical model priors on latent variables, deep neural networks to link latent variables to observed data, and structure-exploiting algorithms for approximate posterior inference. These models are particularly appealing for sequential data, where the prior can capture temporal dependencies. However, despite their conceptual elegance, SVAEs have proven difficult to implement, and more general approaches have been favored in practice. Here, we revisit SVAEs using modern machine learning tools and demonstrate their advantages over more general alternatives in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. First, we develop a modern implementation for hardware acceleration, parallelization, and automatic differentiation of the message passing algorithms at the core of the SVAE. Second, we show that by exploiting structure in the prior, the SVAE learns more accurate models and posterior distributions, which translate into improved performance on prediction tasks. Third, we show how the SVAE can naturally handle missing data, and we leverage this ability to develop a novel, self-supervised training approach. Altogether, these results show that the time is ripe to revisit structured variational autoencoders.

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the observations. This paper provides a selective review of recent advancements in deep neural network-based approaches for SSMs, and presents a unified perspective for discrete time deep state space models and continuous time ones such as latent neural Ordinary Differential and Stochastic Differential Equations. It starts with an overview of the classical maximum likelihood based approach for learning SSMs, reviews variational autoencoder as a general learning pipeline for neural network-based approaches in the presence of latent variables, and discusses in detail representative deep learning models that fall under the SSM framework. Very recent developments, where SSMs are used as standalone architectural modules for improving efficiency in sequence modeling, are also examined. Finally, examples involving mixed frequency and irregularly-spaced time series data are presented to demonstrate the advantage of SSMs in these settings.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

This work challenges the residual prediction paradigm in visual autoregressive modeling and presents FlexVAR, a new Flexible Visual AutoRegressive image generation paradigm. FlexVAR facilitates autoregressive learning with ground-truth prediction, enabling each step to independently produce plausible images. This simple, intuitive approach swiftly learns visual distributions and makes the generation process more flexible and adaptable. Trained solely on low-resolution images (leq 256px), FlexVAR can: (1) Generate images of various resolutions and aspect ratios, even exceeding the resolution of the training images. (2) Support various image-to-image tasks, including image refinement, in/out-painting, and image expansion. (3) Adapt to various autoregressive steps, allowing for faster inference with fewer steps or enhancing image quality with more steps. Our 1.0B model outperforms its VAR counterpart on the ImageNet 256times256 benchmark. Moreover, when zero-shot transfer the image generation process with 13 steps, the performance further improves to 2.08 FID, outperforming state-of-the-art autoregressive models AiM/VAR by 0.25/0.28 FID and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.52/0.19 FID, respectively. When transferring our 1.0B model to the ImageNet 512times512 benchmark in a zero-shot manner, FlexVAR achieves competitive results compared to the VAR 2.3B model, which is a fully supervised model trained at 512times512 resolution.

We present TraDE, a self-attention-based architecture for auto-regressive density estimation with continuous and discrete valued data. Our model is trained using a penalized maximum likelihood objective, which ensures that samples from the density estimate resemble the training data distribution. The use of self-attention means that the model need not retain conditional sufficient statistics during the auto-regressive process beyond what is needed for each covariate. On standard tabular and image data benchmarks, TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing approaches such as normalizing flow estimators and recurrent auto-regressive models. However log-likelihood on held-out data only partially reflects how useful these estimates are in real-world applications. In order to systematically evaluate density estimators, we present a suite of tasks such as regression using generated samples, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to noise in the training data and demonstrate that TraDE works well in these scenarios.

Attention-based models such as Transformers and recurrent models like state space models (SSMs) have emerged as successful methods for autoregressive sequence modeling. Although both enable parallel training, none enable parallel generation due to their autoregressiveness. We propose the variational SSM (VSSM), a variational autoencoder (VAE) where both the encoder and decoder are SSMs. Since sampling the latent variables and decoding them with the SSM can be parallelized, both training and generation can be conducted in parallel. Moreover, the decoder recurrence allows generation to be resumed without reprocessing the whole sequence. Finally, we propose the autoregressive VSSM that can be conditioned on a partial realization of the sequence, as is common in language generation tasks. Interestingly, the autoregressive VSSM still enables parallel generation. We highlight on toy problems (MNIST, CIFAR) the empirical gains in speed-up and show that it competes with traditional models in terms of generation quality (Transformer, Mamba SSM).

Autoregressive Predictive Coding (APC), as a self-supervised objective, has enjoyed success in learning representations from large amounts of unlabeled data, and the learned representations are rich for many downstream tasks. However, the connection between low self-supervised loss and strong performance in downstream tasks remains unclear. In this work, we propose Vector-Quantized Autoregressive Predictive Coding (VQ-APC), a novel model that produces quantized representations, allowing us to explicitly control the amount of information encoded in the representations. By studying a sequence of increasingly limited models, we reveal the constituents of the learned representations. In particular, we confirm the presence of information with probing tasks, while showing the absence of information with mutual information, uncovering the model's preference in preserving speech information as its capacity becomes constrained. We find that there exists a point where phonetic and speaker information are amplified to maximize a self-supervised objective. As a byproduct, the learned codes for a particular model capacity correspond well to English phones.

Existing vector quantization (VQ) based autoregressive models follow a two-stage generation paradigm that first learns a codebook to encode images as discrete codes, and then completes generation based on the learned codebook. However, they encode fixed-size image regions into fixed-length codes and ignore their naturally different information densities, which results in insufficiency in important regions and redundancy in unimportant ones, and finally degrades the generation quality and speed. Moreover, the fixed-length coding leads to an unnatural raster-scan autoregressive generation. To address the problem, we propose a novel two-stage framework: (1) Dynamic-Quantization VAE (DQ-VAE) which encodes image regions into variable-length codes based on their information densities for an accurate and compact code representation. (2) DQ-Transformer which thereby generates images autoregressively from coarse-grained (smooth regions with fewer codes) to fine-grained (details regions with more codes) by modeling the position and content of codes in each granularity alternately, through a novel stacked-transformer architecture and shared-content, non-shared position input layers designs. Comprehensive experiments on various generation tasks validate our superiorities in both effectiveness and efficiency. Code will be released at https://github.com/CrossmodalGroup/DynamicVectorQuantization.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

Designing efficient and robust algorithms for accurate prediction of stock market prices is one of the most exciting challenges in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. With the exponential rate of development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively and efficiently extract, store, process and analyze high volume of stock market data with diversity in its contents. Availability of complex algorithms which can execute very fast on parallel architecture over the cloud has made it possible to achieve higher accuracy in forecasting results while reducing the time required for computation. In this paper, we use the time series data of the healthcare sector of India for the period January 2010 till December 2016. We first demonstrate a decomposition approach of the time series and then illustrate how the decomposition results provide us with useful insights into the behavior and properties exhibited by the time series. Further, based on the structural analysis of the time series, we propose six different methods of forecasting for predicting the time series index of the healthcare sector. Extensive results are provided on the performance of the forecasting methods to demonstrate their effectiveness.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

In this work we propose for the first time a transformer-based framework for unsupervised representation learning of multivariate time series. Pre-trained models can be potentially used for downstream tasks such as regression and classification, forecasting and missing value imputation. By evaluating our models on several benchmark datasets for multivariate time series regression and classification, we show that not only does our modeling approach represent the most successful method employing unsupervised learning of multivariate time series presented to date, but also that it exceeds the current state-of-the-art performance of supervised methods; it does so even when the number of training samples is very limited, while offering computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate that unsupervised pre-training of our transformer models offers a substantial performance benefit over fully supervised learning, even without leveraging additional unlabeled data, i.e., by reusing the same data samples through the unsupervised objective.

Modularization is a cornerstone of computer science, abstracting complex functions into atomic building blocks. In this paper, we introduce a new level of modularization by abstracting generative models into atomic generative modules. Analogous to fractals in mathematics, our method constructs a new type of generative model by recursively invoking atomic generative modules, resulting in self-similar fractal architectures that we call fractal generative models. As a running example, we instantiate our fractal framework using autoregressive models as the atomic generative modules and examine it on the challenging task of pixel-by-pixel image generation, demonstrating strong performance in both likelihood estimation and generation quality. We hope this work could open a new paradigm in generative modeling and provide a fertile ground for future research. Code is available at https://github.com/LTH14/fractalgen.

Sparsity in the structure of Neural Networks can lead to less energy consumption, less memory usage, faster computation times on convenient hardware, and automated machine learning. If sparsity gives rise to certain kinds of structure, it can explain automatically obtained features during learning. We provide insights into experiments in which we show how sparsity can be achieved through prior initialization, pruning, and during learning, and answer questions on the relationship between the structure of Neural Networks and their performance. This includes the first work of inducing priors from network theory into Recurrent Neural Networks and an architectural performance prediction during a Neural Architecture Search. Within our experiments, we show how magnitude class blinded pruning achieves 97.5% on MNIST with 80% compression and re-training, which is 0.5 points more than without compression, that magnitude class uniform pruning is significantly inferior to it and how a genetic search enhanced with performance prediction achieves 82.4% on CIFAR10. Further, performance prediction for Recurrent Networks learning the Reber grammar shows an R^2 of up to 0.81 given only structural information.

This paper proposes to model chaos in the ATM cash withdrawal time series of a big Indian bank and forecast the withdrawals using deep learning methods. It also considers the importance of day-of-the-week and includes it as a dummy exogenous variable. We first modelled the chaos present in the withdrawal time series by reconstructing the state space of each series using the lag, and embedding dimension found using an auto-correlation function and Cao's method. This process converts the uni-variate time series into multi variate time series. The "day-of-the-week" is converted into seven features with the help of one-hot encoding. Then these seven features are augmented to the multivariate time series. For forecasting the future cash withdrawals, using algorithms namely ARIMA, random forest (RF), support vector regressor (SVR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), group method of data handling (GMDH), general regression neural network (GRNN), long short term memory neural network and 1-dimensional convolutional neural network. We considered a daily cash withdrawals data set from an Indian commercial bank. After modelling chaos and adding exogenous features to the data set, we observed improvements in the forecasting for all models. Even though the random forest (RF) yielded better Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) value, deep learning algorithms, namely LSTM and 1D CNN, showed similar performance compared to RF, based on t-test.

We present Autoregressive Representation Alignment (ARRA), a new training framework that unlocks global-coherent text-to-image generation in autoregressive LLMs without architectural changes. Unlike prior work that requires complex architectural redesigns, ARRA aligns LLM hidden states with visual representations from external visual foundational models via a global visual alignment loss and a hybrid token, <HYBNEXT>. This token enforces dual constraints: local next-token prediction and global semantic distillation, enabling LLMs to implicitly learn spatial and contextual coherence while retaining their original autoregressive paradigm. Extensive experiments validate ARRA's plug-and-play versatility. When training from text-generation-only LLMs or random initialization, ARRA reduces FID by 25.5% (MIMIC-CXR), 8.8% (DeepEyeNet), and 7.5% (ImageNet) for advanced autoregressive LLMs like Chameleon and LlamaGen, all without framework modifications. For domain adaption, ARRA aligns general-purpose LLMs with specialized models (e.g., BioMedCLIP), achieving an 18.6% FID reduction over direct fine-tuning on medical imaging (MIMIC-CXR). By demonstrating that training objective redesign -- not just architectural innovation -- can resolve cross-modal global coherence challenges, ARRA offers a complementary paradigm for advancing autoregressive models. Code and models will be released to advance autoregressive image generation.

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series analytical tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art pre-trained foundation models, introducing a novel taxonomy to categorize them across several dimensions. Specifically, we classify models by their architecture design, distinguishing between those leveraging patch-based representations and those operating directly on raw sequences. The taxonomy further includes whether the models provide probabilistic or deterministic predictions, and whether they are designed to work with univariate time series or can handle multivariate time series out of the box. Additionally, the taxonomy encompasses model scale and complexity, highlighting differences between lightweight architectures and large-scale foundation models. A unique aspect of this survey is its categorization by the type of objective function employed during training phase. By synthesizing these perspectives, this survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners, providing insights into current trends and identifying promising directions for future research in transformer-based time series modeling.

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

Quantum many-body physics simulation has important impacts on understanding fundamental science and has applications to quantum materials design and quantum technology. However, due to the exponentially growing size of the Hilbert space with respect to the particle number, a direct simulation is intractable. While representing quantum states with tensor networks and neural networks are the two state-of-the-art methods for approximate simulations, each has its own limitations in terms of expressivity and inductive bias. To address these challenges, we develop a novel architecture, Autoregressive Neural TensorNet (ANTN), which bridges tensor networks and autoregressive neural networks. We show that Autoregressive Neural TensorNet parameterizes normalized wavefunctions, allows for exact sampling, generalizes the expressivity of tensor networks and autoregressive neural networks, and inherits a variety of symmetries from autoregressive neural networks. We demonstrate our approach on quantum state learning as well as finding the ground state of the challenging 2D J_1-J_2 Heisenberg model with different systems sizes and coupling parameters, outperforming both tensor networks and autoregressive neural networks. Our work opens up new opportunities for scientific simulations of quantum many-body physics and quantum technology.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

In many domains, autoregressive models can attain high likelihood on the task of predicting the next observation. However, this maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective does not necessarily match a downstream use-case of autoregressively generating high-quality sequences. The MLE objective weights sequences proportionally to their frequency under the data distribution, with no guidance for the model's behaviour out of distribution (OOD): leading to compounding error during autoregressive generation. In order to address this compounding error problem, we formulate sequence generation as an imitation learning (IL) problem. This allows us to minimize a variety of divergences between the distribution of sequences generated by an autoregressive model and sequences from a dataset, including divergences with weight on OOD generated sequences. The IL framework also allows us to incorporate backtracking by introducing a backspace action into the generation process. This further mitigates the compounding error problem by allowing the model to revert a sampled token if it takes the sequence OOD. Our resulting method, SequenceMatch, can be implemented without adversarial training or major architectural changes. We identify the SequenceMatch-chi^2 divergence as a more suitable training objective for autoregressive models which are used for generation. We show that empirically, SequenceMatch training leads to improvements over MLE on text generation with language models.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

This work tackles the information loss bottleneck of vector-quantization (VQ) autoregressive image generation by introducing a novel model architecture called the 2-Dimensional Autoregression (DnD) Transformer. The DnD-Transformer predicts more codes for an image by introducing a new autoregression direction, model depth, along with the sequence length direction. Compared to traditional 1D autoregression and previous work utilizing similar 2D image decomposition such as RQ-Transformer, the DnD-Transformer is an end-to-end model that can generate higher quality images with the same backbone model size and sequence length, opening a new optimization perspective for autoregressive image generation. Furthermore, our experiments reveal that the DnD-Transformer's potential extends beyond generating natural images. It can even generate images with rich text and graphical elements in a self-supervised manner, demonstrating an understanding of these combined modalities. This has not been previously demonstrated for popular vision generative models such as diffusion models, showing a spark of vision-language intelligence when trained solely on images. Code, datasets and models are open at https://github.com/chenllliang/DnD-Transformer.

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

Diffusion models have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models in modeling discrete categorical data. Yet diffusion models that directly work on discrete data space do not fully exploit the power of iterative refinement, as the signals are lost during the transition between discrete states. Existing continuous diffusion models for discrete data have limited performance compared to discrete approaches, and the unclear link between them restricts the development of diffusion models for discrete data. In this work, we propose a continuous diffusion model for language modeling that incorporates the geometry of the underlying categorical distribution. We establish a connection between the discrete diffusion and continuous flow on the statistical manifold, and building on the analogy, we introduce a simple design for the diffusion process that generalizes previous discrete diffusion models. We further propose a simulation-free training framework based on radial symmetry and a simple technique to address the high dimensionality of the manifold. Comprehensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks and other modalities show that our method outperforms existing discrete diffusion models and approaches the performance of autoregressive models. Codes available at https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM{https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM}.

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also triggered great interest in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of Transformers, the ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions is especially attractive for time series modeling, leading to exciting progress in various time series applications. In this paper, we systematically review Transformer schemes for time series modeling by highlighting their strengths as well as limitations. In particular, we examine the development of time series Transformers in two perspectives. From the perspective of network structure, we summarize the adaptations and modifications that have been made to Transformers in order to accommodate the challenges in time series analysis. From the perspective of applications, we categorize time series Transformers based on common tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification. Empirically, we perform robust analysis, model size analysis, and seasonal-trend decomposition analysis to study how Transformers perform in time series. Finally, we discuss and suggest future directions to provide useful research guidance. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first work to comprehensively and systematically summarize the recent advances of Transformers for modeling time series data. We hope this survey will ignite further research interests in time series Transformers.

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a parsimonious way. We develop two algorithms for posterior inference that feature varying level of trade-off between estimation precision and computational speed. Using monthly data for the euro area, we establish the good empirical properties of the QFAVAR as a tool for assessing the effects of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks. In particular, QFAVAR short-run tail forecasts are more accurate compared to a FAVAR with symmetric Gaussian errors, as well as univariate quantile autoregressions that ignore comovements among quantiles of macroeconomic variables. We also illustrate how quantile impulse response functions and quantile connectedness measures, resulting from the new model, can be used to implement joint risk scenario analysis.

Autoregressively trained transformers have brought a profound revolution to the world, especially with their in-context learning (ICL) ability to address downstream tasks. Recently, several studies suggest that transformers learn a mesa-optimizer during autoregressive (AR) pretraining to implement ICL. Namely, the forward pass of the trained transformer is equivalent to optimizing an inner objective function in-context. However, whether the practical non-convex training dynamics will converge to the ideal mesa-optimizer is still unclear. Towards filling this gap, we investigate the non-convex dynamics of a one-layer linear causal self-attention model autoregressively trained by gradient flow, where the sequences are generated by an AR process x_{t+1} = W x_t. First, under a certain condition of data distribution, we prove that an autoregressively trained transformer learns W by implementing one step of gradient descent to minimize an ordinary least squares (OLS) problem in-context. It then applies the learned W for next-token prediction, thereby verifying the mesa-optimization hypothesis. Next, under the same data conditions, we explore the capability limitations of the obtained mesa-optimizer. We show that a stronger assumption related to the moments of data is the sufficient and necessary condition that the learned mesa-optimizer recovers the distribution. Besides, we conduct exploratory analyses beyond the first data condition and prove that generally, the trained transformer will not perform vanilla gradient descent for the OLS problem. Finally, our simulation results verify the theoretical results.

Generating time series data using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) presents several prevalent challenges, such as slow convergence, information loss in embedding spaces, instability, and performance variability depending on the series length. To tackle these obstacles, we introduce a robust framework aimed at addressing and mitigating these issues effectively. This advanced framework integrates the benefits of an Autoencoder-generated embedding space with the adversarial training dynamics of GANs. This framework benefits from a time series-based loss function and oversight from a supervisory network, both of which capture the stepwise conditional distributions of the data effectively. The generator functions within the latent space, while the discriminator offers essential feedback based on the feature space. Moreover, we introduce an early generation algorithm and an improved neural network architecture to enhance stability and ensure effective generalization across both short and long time series. Through joint training, our framework consistently outperforms existing benchmarks, generating high-quality time series data across a range of real and synthetic datasets with diverse characteristics.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

We revisit the structure learning problem for dynamic Bayesian networks and propose a method that simultaneously estimates contemporaneous (intra-slice) and time-lagged (inter-slice) relationships between variables in a time-series. Our approach is score-based, and revolves around minimizing a penalized loss subject to an acyclicity constraint. To solve this problem, we leverage a recent algebraic result characterizing the acyclicity constraint as a smooth equality constraint. The resulting algorithm, which we call DYNOTEARS, outperforms other methods on simulated data, especially in high-dimensions as the number of variables increases. We also apply this algorithm on real datasets from two different domains, finance and molecular biology, and analyze the resulting output. Compared to state-of-the-art methods for learning dynamic Bayesian networks, our method is both scalable and accurate on real data. The simple formulation and competitive performance of our method make it suitable for a variety of problems where one seeks to learn connections between variables across time.

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) models with continuous tokens for image generation show promising results by eliminating the need for discrete tokenization. However, these models face efficiency challenges due to their sequential token generation nature and reliance on computationally intensive diffusion-based sampling. We present ECAR (Efficient Continuous Auto-Regressive Image Generation via Multistage Modeling), an approach that addresses these limitations through two intertwined innovations: (1) a stage-wise continuous token generation strategy that reduces computational complexity and provides progressively refined token maps as hierarchical conditions, and (2) a multistage flow-based distribution modeling method that transforms only partial-denoised distributions at each stage comparing to complete denoising in normal diffusion models. Holistically, ECAR operates by generating tokens at increasing resolutions while simultaneously denoising the image at each stage. This design not only reduces token-to-image transformation cost by a factor of the stage number but also enables parallel processing at the token level. Our approach not only enhances computational efficiency but also aligns naturally with image generation principles by operating in continuous token space and following a hierarchical generation process from coarse to fine details. Experimental results demonstrate that ECAR achieves comparable image quality to DiT Peebles & Xie [2023] while requiring 10times FLOPs reduction and 5times speedup to generate a 256times256 image.

Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are however difficult to characterize. Here, we introduce an unsupervised machine learning approach to determine the minimal set of parameters required to effectively describe the dynamics of a stochastic process. Our method builds upon an extended beta-variational autoencoder architecture. By means of simulated datasets corresponding to paradigmatic diffusion models, we showcase its effectiveness in extracting the minimal relevant parameters that accurately describe these dynamics. Furthermore, the method enables the generation of new trajectories that faithfully replicate the expected stochastic behavior. Overall, our approach enables for the autonomous discovery of unknown parameters describing stochastic processes, hence enhancing our comprehension of complex phenomena across various fields.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

Recent studies have shown that autoencoder-based models can achieve superior performance on anomaly detection tasks due to their excellent ability to fit complex data in an unsupervised manner. In this work, we propose a novel autoencoder-based model, named StackVAE-G that can significantly bring the efficiency and interpretability to multivariate time series anomaly detection. Specifically, we utilize the similarities across the time series channels by the stacking block-wise reconstruction with a weight-sharing scheme to reduce the size of learned models and also relieve the overfitting to unknown noises in the training data. We also leverage a graph learning module to learn a sparse adjacency matrix to explicitly capture the stable interrelation structure among multiple time series channels for the interpretable pattern reconstruction of interrelated channels. Combining these two modules, we introduce the stacking block-wise VAE (variational autoencoder) with GNN (graph neural network) model for multivariate time series anomaly detection. We conduct extensive experiments on three commonly used public datasets, showing that our model achieves comparable (even better) performance with the state-of-the-art modelsand meanwhile requires much less computation and memory cost. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the adjacency matrix learned by our model accurately captures the interrelation among multiple channels, and can provide valuable information for failure diagnosis applications.

Most recent real-world image super-resolution (Real-ISR) methods employ pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models to synthesize the high-quality image either from random Gaussian noise, which yields realistic results but is slow due to iterative denoising, or directly from the input low-quality image, which is efficient but at the price of lower output quality. These approaches train ControlNet or LoRA modules while keeping the pre-trained model fixed, which often introduces over-enhanced artifacts and hallucinations, suffering from the robustness to inputs of varying degradations. Recent visual autoregressive (AR) models, such as pre-trained Infinity, can provide strong T2I generation capabilities while offering superior efficiency by using the bitwise next-scale prediction strategy. Building upon next-scale prediction, we introduce a robust Real-ISR framework, namely Next-Scale Autoregressive Modeling (NSARM). Specifically, we train NSARM in two stages: a transformation network is first trained to map the input low-quality image to preliminary scales, followed by an end-to-end full-model fine-tuning. Such a comprehensive fine-tuning enhances the robustness of NSARM in Real-ISR tasks without compromising its generative capability. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that as a pure AR model, NSARM achieves superior visual results over existing Real-ISR methods while maintaining a fast inference speed. Most importantly, it demonstrates much higher robustness to the quality of input images, showing stronger generalization performance. Project page: https://github.com/Xiangtaokong/NSARM

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

What do auto-encoders learn about the underlying data generating distribution? Recent work suggests that some auto-encoder variants do a good job of capturing the local manifold structure of data. This paper clarifies some of these previous observations by showing that minimizing a particular form of regularized reconstruction error yields a reconstruction function that locally characterizes the shape of the data generating density. We show that the auto-encoder captures the score (derivative of the log-density with respect to the input). It contradicts previous interpretations of reconstruction error as an energy function. Unlike previous results, the theorems provided here are completely generic and do not depend on the parametrization of the auto-encoder: they show what the auto-encoder would tend to if given enough capacity and examples. These results are for a contractive training criterion we show to be similar to the denoising auto-encoder training criterion with small corruption noise, but with contraction applied on the whole reconstruction function rather than just encoder. Similarly to score matching, one can consider the proposed training criterion as a convenient alternative to maximum likelihood because it does not involve a partition function. Finally, we show how an approximate Metropolis-Hastings MCMC can be setup to recover samples from the estimated distribution, and this is confirmed in sampling experiments.

To the naked eye, stock prices are considered chaotic, dynamic, and unpredictable. Indeed, it is one of the most difficult forecasting tasks that hundreds of millions of retail traders and professional traders around the world try to do every second even before the market opens. With recent advances in the development of machine learning and the amount of data the market generated over years, applying machine learning techniques such as deep learning neural networks is unavoidable. In this work, we modeled the task as a multivariate forecasting problem, instead of a naive autoregression problem. The multivariate analysis is done using the attention mechanism via applying a mutated version of the Transformer, "Stockformer", which we created.

We present Locality-aware Parallel Decoding (LPD) to accelerate autoregressive image generation. Traditional autoregressive image generation relies on next-patch prediction, a memory-bound process that leads to high latency. Existing works have tried to parallelize next-patch prediction by shifting to multi-patch prediction to accelerate the process, but only achieved limited parallelization. To achieve high parallelization while maintaining generation quality, we introduce two key techniques: (1) Flexible Parallelized Autoregressive Modeling, a novel architecture that enables arbitrary generation ordering and degrees of parallelization. It uses learnable position query tokens to guide generation at target positions while ensuring mutual visibility among concurrently generated tokens for consistent parallel decoding. (2) Locality-aware Generation Ordering, a novel schedule that forms groups to minimize intra-group dependencies and maximize contextual support, enhancing generation quality. With these designs, we reduce the generation steps from 256 to 20 (256times256 res.) and 1024 to 48 (512times512 res.) without compromising quality on the ImageNet class-conditional generation, and achieving at least 3.4times lower latency than previous parallelized autoregressive models.

Identifying low-dimensional latent structures within high-dimensional data has long been a central topic in the machine learning community, driven by the need for data compression, storage, transmission, and deeper data understanding. Traditional methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE), operate in an unsupervised manner, ignoring label information even when it is available. In this work, we introduce a unified method capable of learning latent spaces in both unsupervised and supervised settings. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear multiple-response regression within an index model context. By applying the generalized Stein's lemma, the latent space can be estimated without knowing the nonlinear link functions. Our method can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of PCA. Moreover, unlike AE and other neural network methods that operate as "black boxes", our approach not only offers better interpretability but also reduces computational complexity while providing strong theoretical guarantees. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

Recent advancements in deep learning models for time series forecasting have been significant. These models often leverage fundamental time series properties such as seasonality and non-stationarity, which may suggest an intrinsic link between model performance and data properties. However, existing benchmark datasets fail to offer diverse and well-defined temporal patterns, restricting the systematic evaluation of such connections. Additionally, there is no effective model recommendation approach, leading to high time and cost expenditures when testing different architectures across different downstream applications. For those reasons, we propose ARIES, a framework for assessing relation between time series properties and modeling strategies, and for recommending deep forcasting models for realistic time series. First, we construct a synthetic dataset with multiple distinct patterns, and design a comprehensive system to compute the properties of time series. Next, we conduct an extensive benchmarking of over 50 forecasting models, and establish the relationship between time series properties and modeling strategies. Our experimental results reveal a clear correlation. Based on these findings, we propose the first deep forecasting model recommender, capable of providing interpretable suggestions for real-world time series. In summary, ARIES is the first study to establish the relations between the properties of time series data and modeling strategies, while also implementing a model recommendation system. The code is available at: https://github.com/blisky-li/ARIES.

Multivariate time series classification is a crucial task in data mining, attracting growing research interest due to its broad applications. While many existing methods focus on discovering discriminative patterns in time series, real-world data does not always present such patterns, and sometimes raw numerical values can also serve as discriminative features. Additionally, the recent success of Transformer models has inspired many studies. However, when applying to time series classification, the self-attention mechanisms in Transformer models could introduce classification-irrelevant features, thereby compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method, VSFormer, that incorporates both discriminative patterns (shape) and numerical information (value). In addition, we extract class-specific prior information derived from supervised information to enrich the positional encoding and provide classification-oriented self-attention learning, thereby enhancing its effectiveness. Extensive experiments on all 30 UEA archived datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to SOTA models. Through ablation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved encoding layer and the proposed self-attention mechanism. Finally, We provide a case study on a real-world time series dataset without discriminative patterns to interpret our model.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Sequential VAEs have been successfully considered for many high-dimensional time series modelling problems, with many variant models relying on discrete-time mechanisms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). On the other hand, continuous-time methods have recently gained attraction, especially in the context of irregularly-sampled time series, where they can better handle the data than discrete-time methods. One such class are Gaussian process variational autoencoders (GPVAEs), where the VAE prior is set as a Gaussian process (GP). However, a major limitation of GPVAEs is that it inherits the cubic computational cost as GPs, making it unattractive to practioners. In this work, we leverage the equivalent discrete state space representation of Markovian GPs to enable linear time GPVAE training via Kalman filtering and smoothing. We show on a variety of high-dimensional temporal and spatiotemporal tasks that our method performs favourably compared to existing approaches whilst being computationally highly scalable.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.