Daily Papers

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

Accurate confidence estimation is essential for trustworthy large language models (LLMs) systems, as it empowers the user to determine when to trust outputs and enables reliable deployment in safety-critical applications. Current confidence estimation methods for LLMs neglect the relevance between responses and contextual information, a crucial factor in output quality evaluation, particularly in scenarios where background knowledge is provided. To bridge this gap, we propose CRUX (Context-aware entropy Reduction and Unified consistency eXamination), the first framework that integrates context faithfulness and consistency for confidence estimation via two novel metrics. First, contextual entropy reduction represents data uncertainty with the information gain through contrastive sampling with and without context. Second, unified consistency examination captures potential model uncertainty through the global consistency of the generated answers with and without context. Experiments across three benchmark datasets (CoQA, SQuAD, QuAC) and two domain-specific datasets (BioASQ, EduQG) demonstrate CRUX's effectiveness, achieving the highest AUROC than existing baselines.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Despite their vast capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle with generating reliable outputs, frequently producing high-confidence inaccuracies known as hallucinations. Addressing this challenge, our research introduces InternalInspector, a novel framework designed to enhance confidence estimation in LLMs by leveraging contrastive learning on internal states including attention states, feed-forward states, and activation states of all layers. Unlike existing methods that primarily focus on the final activation state, InternalInspector conducts a comprehensive analysis across all internal states of every layer to accurately identify both correct and incorrect prediction processes. By benchmarking InternalInspector against existing confidence estimation methods across various natural language understanding and generation tasks, including factual question answering, commonsense reasoning, and reading comprehension, InternalInspector achieves significantly higher accuracy in aligning the estimated confidence scores with the correctness of the LLM's predictions and lower calibration error. Furthermore, InternalInspector excels at HaluEval, a hallucination detection benchmark, outperforming other internal-based confidence estimation methods in this task.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their confidence and calibrating them across different tasks can help mitigate risks and enable LLMs to produce better generations. There has been a lot of recent research aiming to address this, but there has been no comprehensive overview to organize it and outline the main lessons learned. The present survey aims to bridge this gap. In particular, we outline the challenges and we summarize recent technical advancements for LLM confidence estimation and calibration. We further discuss their applications and suggest promising directions for future work.

To maintain user trust, large language models (LLMs) should signal low confidence on examples where they are incorrect, instead of misleading the user. The standard approach of estimating confidence is to use the softmax probabilities of these models, but as of November 2023, state-of-the-art LLMs such as GPT-4 and Claude-v1.3 do not provide access to these probabilities. We first study eliciting confidence linguistically -- asking an LLM for its confidence in its answer -- which performs reasonably (80.5% AUC on GPT-4 averaged across 12 question-answering datasets -- 7% above a random baseline) but leaves room for improvement. We then explore using a surrogate confidence model -- using a model where we do have probabilities to evaluate the original model's confidence in a given question. Surprisingly, even though these probabilities come from a different and often weaker model, this method leads to higher AUC than linguistic confidences on 9 out of 12 datasets. Our best method composing linguistic confidences and surrogate model probabilities gives state-of-the-art confidence estimates on all 12 datasets (84.6% average AUC on GPT-4).

Tool-using agents that act in the world need to be both useful and safe. Well-calibrated model confidences can be used to weigh the risk versus reward of potential actions, but prior work shows that many models are poorly calibrated. Inspired by interpretability literature exploring the internals of models, we propose a novel class of model-internal confidence estimators (MICE) to better assess confidence when calling tools. MICE first decodes from each intermediate layer of the language model using logitLens and then computes similarity scores between each layer's generation and the final output. These features are fed into a learned probabilistic classifier to assess confidence in the decoded output. On the simulated trial and error (STE) tool-calling dataset using Llama3 models, we find that MICE beats or matches the baselines on smoothed expected calibration error. Using MICE confidences to determine whether to call a tool significantly improves over strong baselines on a new metric, expected tool-calling utility. Further experiments show that MICE is sample-efficient, can generalize zero-shot to unseen APIs, and results in higher tool-calling utility in scenarios with varying risk levels. Our code is open source, available at https://github.com/microsoft/mice_for_cats.

Large pre-trained language models achieve impressive results across many tasks. However, recent works point out that pre-trained language models may memorize a considerable fraction of their training data, leading to the privacy risk of information leakage. In this paper, we propose a method named Ethicist for targeted training data extraction through loss smoothed soft prompting and calibrated confidence estimation, investigating how to recover the suffix in the training data when given a prefix. To elicit memorization in the attacked model, we tune soft prompt embeddings while keeping the model fixed. We further propose a smoothing loss that smooths the loss distribution of the suffix tokens to make it easier to sample the correct suffix. In order to select the most probable suffix from a collection of sampled suffixes and estimate the prediction confidence, we propose a calibrated confidence estimation method, which normalizes the confidence of the generated suffixes with a local estimation. We show that Ethicist significantly improves the extraction performance on a recently proposed public benchmark. We also investigate several factors influencing the data extraction performance, including decoding strategy, model scale, prefix length, and suffix length. Our code is available at https://github.com/thu-coai/Targeted-Data-Extraction.

End-to-end vision-based imitation learning has demonstrated promising results in autonomous driving by learning control commands directly from expert demonstrations. However, traditional approaches rely on either regressionbased models, which provide precise control but lack confidence estimation, or classification-based models, which offer confidence scores but suffer from reduced precision due to discretization. This limitation makes it challenging to quantify the reliability of predicted actions and apply corrections when necessary. In this work, we introduce a dual-head neural network architecture that integrates both regression and classification heads to improve decision reliability in imitation learning. The regression head predicts continuous driving actions, while the classification head estimates confidence, enabling a correction mechanism that adjusts actions in low-confidence scenarios, enhancing driving stability. We evaluate our approach in a closed-loop setting within the CARLA simulator, demonstrating its ability to detect uncertain actions, estimate confidence, and apply real-time corrections. Experimental results show that our method reduces lane deviation and improves trajectory accuracy by up to 50%, outperforming conventional regression-only models. These findings highlight the potential of classification-guided confidence estimation in enhancing the robustness of vision-based imitation learning for autonomous driving. The source code is available at https://github.com/ElaheDlv/Confidence_Aware_IL.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate inaccurate or fabricated information and generally fail to indicate their confidence, which limits their broader applications. Previous work elicits confidence from LLMs by direct or self-consistency prompting, or constructing specific datasets for supervised finetuning. The prompting-based approaches have inferior performance, and the training-based approaches are limited to binary or inaccurate group-level confidence estimates. In this work, we present the advanced SaySelf, a training framework that teaches LLMs to express more accurate fine-grained confidence estimates. In addition, beyond the confidence scores, SaySelf initiates the process of directing LLMs to produce self-reflective rationales that clearly identify gaps in their parametric knowledge and explain their uncertainty. This is achieved by using an LLM to automatically summarize the uncertainties in specific knowledge via natural language. The summarization is based on the analysis of the inconsistency in multiple sampled reasoning chains, and the resulting data is utilized for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, we utilize reinforcement learning with a meticulously crafted reward function to calibrate the confidence estimates, motivating LLMs to deliver accurate, high-confidence predictions and to penalize overconfidence in erroneous outputs. Experimental results in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SaySelf in reducing the confidence calibration error and maintaining the task performance. We show that the generated self-reflective rationales are reasonable and can further contribute to the calibration. The code is made public at https://github.com/xu1868/SaySelf.

Miscalibration in Large Language Models (LLMs) undermines their reliability, highlighting the need for accurate confidence estimation. We introduce CCPS (Calibrating LLM Confidence by Probing Perturbed Representation Stability), a novel method analyzing internal representational stability in LLMs. CCPS applies targeted adversarial perturbations to final hidden states, extracts features reflecting the model's response to these perturbations, and uses a lightweight classifier to predict answer correctness. CCPS was evaluated on LLMs from 8B to 32B parameters (covering Llama, Qwen, and Mistral architectures) using MMLU and MMLU-Pro benchmarks in both multiple-choice and open-ended formats. Our results show that CCPS significantly outperforms current approaches. Across four LLMs and three MMLU variants, CCPS reduces Expected Calibration Error by approximately 55% and Brier score by 21%, while increasing accuracy by 5 percentage points, Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve by 4 percentage points, and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve by 6 percentage points, all relative to the strongest prior method. CCPS delivers an efficient, broadly applicable, and more accurate solution for estimating LLM confidence, thereby improving their trustworthiness.

Domain adaptive panoptic segmentation promises to resolve the long tail of corner cases in natural scene understanding. Previous state of the art addresses this problem with cross-task consistency, careful system-level optimization and heuristic improvement of teacher predictions. In contrast, we propose to build upon remarkable capability of mask transformers to estimate their own prediction uncertainty. Our method avoids noise amplification by leveraging fine-grained confidence of panoptic teacher predictions. In particular, we modulate the loss with mask-wide confidence and discourage back-propagation in pixels with uncertain teacher or confident student. Experimental evaluation on standard benchmarks reveals a substantial contribution of the proposed selection techniques. We report 47.4 PQ on Synthia to Cityscapes, which corresponds to an improvement of 6.2 percentage points over the state of the art. The source code is available at https://github.com/helen1c/MC-PanDA.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

We aim to improve the performance of regressing hand keypoints and segmenting pixel-level hand masks under new imaging conditions (e.g., outdoors) when we only have labeled images taken under very different conditions (e.g., indoors). In the real world, it is important that the model trained for both tasks works under various imaging conditions. However, their variation covered by existing labeled hand datasets is limited. Thus, it is necessary to adapt the model trained on the labeled images (source) to unlabeled images (target) with unseen imaging conditions. While self-training domain adaptation methods (i.e., learning from the unlabeled target images in a self-supervised manner) have been developed for both tasks, their training may degrade performance when the predictions on the target images are noisy. To avoid this, it is crucial to assign a low importance (confidence) weight to the noisy predictions during self-training. In this paper, we propose to utilize the divergence of two predictions to estimate the confidence of the target image for both tasks. These predictions are given from two separate networks, and their divergence helps identify the noisy predictions. To integrate our proposed confidence estimation into self-training, we propose a teacher-student framework where the two networks (teachers) provide supervision to a network (student) for self-training, and the teachers are learned from the student by knowledge distillation. Our experiments show its superiority over state-of-the-art methods in adaptation settings with different lighting, grasping objects, backgrounds, and camera viewpoints. Our method improves by 4% the multi-task score on HO3D compared to the latest adversarial adaptation method. We also validate our method on Ego4D, egocentric videos with rapid changes in imaging conditions outdoors.

Generating accurate and calibrated confidence estimates is critical for deploying LLMs in high-stakes or user-facing applications, and remains an open challenge. Prior research has often framed confidence as a problem of eliciting a model's "self-knowledge", i.e., the ability of an LLM to judge whether its own answers are correct; this approach implicitly assumes that there is some privileged information about the answer's correctness that is accessible to the model itself. However, our experiments reveal that an LLM attempting to predict the correctness of its own outputs generally performs no better than an unrelated LLM. Moreover, we hypothesize that a key factor in building a "Correctness Model" (CM) is exposure to a target model's historical predictions. We propose multiple methods to inject this historical correctness information, creating a Generalized Correctness Model (GCM). We first show that GCMs can be trained on the correctness data from many LLMs and learn patterns for correctness prediction applicable across datasets and models. We then use CMs as a lens for studying the source of correctness prediction ability and its generalization, systematically controlling their training data and finding that answer phrasing is a strong predictor for correctness. We further explore alternative methods of injecting history without training an LLM, finding that including history as in-context examples can help improve correctness prediction, and post-hoc calibration can provide complementary reductions in calibration error. We evaluate GCMs based on Qwen3-8B across 5 model families and the MMLU and TriviaQA datasets, as well as on a downstream selective prediction task, finding that reliable LLM confidence estimation is a generalizable and model-agnostic skill learned by systematically encoding correctness history rather than a model-specific skill reliant on self-introspection.

3D surface reconstruction from images is essential for numerous applications. Recently, Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have emerged as a promising framework for 3D modeling. However, NeRFs require accurate camera poses as input, and existing methods struggle to handle significantly noisy pose estimates (i.e., outliers), which are commonly encountered in real-world scenarios. To tackle this challenge, we present a novel approach that optimizes radiance fields with scene graphs to mitigate the influence of outlier poses. Our method incorporates an adaptive inlier-outlier confidence estimation scheme based on scene graphs, emphasizing images of high compatibility with the neighborhood and consistency in the rendering quality. We also introduce an effective intersection-over-union (IoU) loss to optimize the camera pose and surface geometry, together with a coarse-to-fine strategy to facilitate the training. Furthermore, we propose a new dataset containing typical outlier poses for a detailed evaluation. Experimental results on various datasets consistently demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our method over existing approaches, showcasing its robustness in handling outliers and producing high-quality 3D reconstructions. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/Iris-cyy/SG-NeRF.

This paper describes our 3^{rd} place submission in the AVeriTeC shared task in which we attempted to address the challenge of fact-checking with evidence retrieved in the wild using a simple scheme of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) designed for the task, leveraging the predictive power of Large Language Models. We release our codebase and explain its two modules - the Retriever and the Evidence & Label generator - in detail, justifying their features such as MMR-reranking and Likert-scale confidence estimation. We evaluate our solution on AVeriTeC dev and test set and interpret the results, picking the GPT-4o as the most appropriate model for our pipeline at the time of our publication, with Llama 3.1 70B being a promising open-source alternative. We perform an empirical error analysis to see that faults in our predictions often coincide with noise in the data or ambiguous fact-checks, provoking further research and data augmentation.

Molecular structure recognition is the task of translating a molecular image into its graph structure. Significant variation in drawing styles and conventions exhibited in chemical literature poses a significant challenge for automating this task. In this paper, we propose MolScribe, a novel image-to-graph generation model that explicitly predicts atoms and bonds, along with their geometric layouts, to construct the molecular structure. Our model flexibly incorporates symbolic chemistry constraints to recognize chirality and expand abbreviated structures. We further develop data augmentation strategies to enhance the model robustness against domain shifts. In experiments on both synthetic and realistic molecular images, MolScribe significantly outperforms previous models, achieving 76-93% accuracy on public benchmarks. Chemists can also easily verify MolScribe's prediction, informed by its confidence estimation and atom-level alignment with the input image. MolScribe is publicly available through Python and web interfaces: https://github.com/thomas0809/MolScribe.

Network calibration aims to accurately estimate the level of confidences, which is particularly important for employing deep neural networks in real-world systems. Recent approaches leverage mixup to calibrate the network's predictions during training. However, they do not consider the problem that mixtures of labels in mixup may not accurately represent the actual distribution of augmented samples. In this paper, we present RankMixup, a novel mixup-based framework alleviating the problem of the mixture of labels for network calibration. To this end, we propose to use an ordinal ranking relationship between raw and mixup-augmented samples as an alternative supervisory signal to the label mixtures for network calibration. We hypothesize that the network should estimate a higher level of confidence for the raw samples than the augmented ones (Fig.1). To implement this idea, we introduce a mixup-based ranking loss (MRL) that encourages lower confidences for augmented samples compared to raw ones, maintaining the ranking relationship. We also propose to leverage the ranking relationship among multiple mixup-augmented samples to further improve the calibration capability. Augmented samples with larger mixing coefficients are expected to have higher confidences and vice versa (Fig.1). That is, the order of confidences should be aligned with that of mixing coefficients. To this end, we introduce a novel loss, M-NDCG, in order to reduce the number of misaligned pairs of the coefficients and confidences. Extensive experimental results on standard benchmarks for network calibration demonstrate the effectiveness of RankMixup.

Many real-world scenarios in which DNN-based recognition systems are deployed have inherently fine-grained attributes (e.g., bird-species recognition, medical image classification). In addition to achieving reliable accuracy, a critical subtask for these models is to detect Out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Given the nature of the deployment environment, one may expect such OOD inputs to also be fine-grained w.r.t. the known classes (e.g., a novel bird species), which are thus extremely difficult to identify. Unfortunately, OOD detection in fine-grained scenarios remains largely underexplored. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by first carefully constructing four large-scale fine-grained test environments, in which existing methods are shown to have difficulties. Particularly, we find that even explicitly incorporating a diverse set of auxiliary outlier data during training does not provide sufficient coverage over the broad region where fine-grained OOD samples locate. We then propose Mixture Outlier Exposure (MixOE), which mixes ID data and training outliers to expand the coverage of different OOD granularities, and trains the model such that the prediction confidence linearly decays as the input transitions from ID to OOD. Extensive experiments and analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of MixOE for building up OOD detector in fine-grained environments. The code is available at https://github.com/zjysteven/MixOE.

The field of AI research is advancing at an unprecedented pace, enabling automated hypothesis generation and experimental design across diverse domains such as biology, mathematics, and artificial intelligence. Despite these advancements, there remains a significant gap in the availability of scalable advising systems capable of providing high-quality, well-reasoned feedback to refine proposed hypotheses and experimental designs. To address this challenge, we explore key factors that underlie the development of robust advising systems, including model size, context length, confidence estimation, and structured reasoning processes. Our findings reveal that a relatively small model, when equipped with a well-compressed literature database and a structured reasoning framework, can outperform powerful general-purpose language models such as Deepseek-R1 in terms of acceptance rates for self-ranked top-30% submissions to ICLR 2025. Moreover, when limited to high-confidence predictions, our system achieves an acceptance rate exceeding 90% on the ICLR 2025 test set, underscoring its potential to significantly enhance the quality and efficiency of hypothesis generation and experimental design. The code is released at https://github.com/HowardLiu0830/GUIDE-Research-Idea-Evaluation.

We present a principled approach to provide LLM-based evaluation with a rigorous guarantee of human agreement. We first propose that a reliable evaluation method should not uncritically rely on model preferences for pairwise evaluation, but rather assess the confidence of judge models and selectively decide when to trust its judgement. We then show that under this selective evaluation framework, human agreement can be provably guaranteed -- such that the model evaluation aligns with that of humans to a user-specified agreement level. As part of our framework, we also introduce Simulated Annotators, a novel confidence estimation method that significantly improves judge calibration and thus enables high coverage of evaluated instances. Finally, we propose Cascaded Selective Evaluation, where we use cheaper models as initial judges and escalate to stronger models only when necessary -- again, while still providing a provable guarantee of human agreement. Experimental results show that Cascaded Selective Evaluation guarantees strong alignment with humans, far beyond what LLM judges could achieve without selective evaluation. For example, on a subset of Chatbot Arena where GPT-4 almost never achieves 80% human agreement, our method, even while employing substantially cost-effective models such as Mistral-7B, guarantees over 80% human agreement with almost 80% test coverage.

The regulation of various cellular processes heavily relies on the protein complexes within a living cell, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of their three-dimensional structures to elucidate the underlying mechanisms. While neural docking techniques have exhibited promising outcomes in binary protein docking, the application of advanced neural architectures to multimeric protein docking remains uncertain. This study introduces SyNDock, an automated framework that swiftly assembles precise multimeric complexes within seconds, showcasing performance that can potentially surpass or be on par with recent advanced approaches. SyNDock possesses several appealing advantages not present in previous approaches. Firstly, SyNDock formulates multimeric protein docking as a problem of learning global transformations to holistically depict the placement of chain units of a complex, enabling a learning-centric solution. Secondly, SyNDock proposes a trainable two-step SE(3) algorithm, involving initial pairwise transformation and confidence estimation, followed by global transformation synchronization. This enables effective learning for assembling the complex in a globally consistent manner. Lastly, extensive experiments conducted on our proposed benchmark dataset demonstrate that SyNDock outperforms existing docking software in crucial performance metrics, including accuracy and runtime. For instance, it achieves a 4.5% improvement in performance and a remarkable millionfold acceleration in speed.

Large-scale Transformer models bring significant improvements for various downstream vision language tasks with a unified architecture. The performance improvements come with increasing model size, resulting in slow inference speed and increased cost for severing. While some certain predictions benefit from the full complexity of the large-scale model, not all of inputs need the same amount of computation to conduct, potentially leading to computation resource waste. To handle this challenge, early exiting is proposed to adaptively allocate computational power in term of input complexity to improve inference efficiency. The existing early exiting strategies usually adopt output confidence based on intermediate layers as a proxy of input complexity to incur the decision of skipping following layers. However, such strategies cannot apply to encoder in the widely-used unified architecture with both encoder and decoder due to difficulty of output confidence estimation in the encoder. It is suboptimal in term of saving computation power to ignore the early exiting in encoder component. To handle this challenge, we propose a novel early exiting strategy for unified visual language models, which allows dynamically skip the layers in encoder and decoder simultaneously in term of input layer-wise similarities with multiple times of early exiting, namely MuE. By decomposing the image and text modalities in the encoder, MuE is flexible and can skip different layers in term of modalities, advancing the inference efficiency while minimizing performance drop. Experiments on the SNLI-VE and MS COCO datasets show that the proposed approach MuE can reduce expected inference time by up to 50\% and 40\% while maintaining 99\% and 96\% performance respectively.

When language models (LMs) are trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to generate natural language "reasoning chains", their performance improves on a variety of difficult question answering tasks. Today, almost all successful applications of RL for reasoning use binary reward functions that evaluate the correctness of LM outputs. Because such reward functions do not penalize guessing or low-confidence outputs, they often have the unintended side-effect of degrading calibration and increasing the rate at which LMs generate incorrect responses (or "hallucinate") in other problem domains. This paper describes RLCR (Reinforcement Learning with Calibration Rewards), an approach to training reasoning models that jointly improves accuracy and calibrated confidence estimation. During RLCR, LMs generate both predictions and numerical confidence estimates after reasoning. They are trained to optimize a reward function that augments a binary correctness score with a Brier score -- a scoring rule for confidence estimates that incentivizes calibrated prediction. We first prove that this reward function (or any analogous reward function that uses a bounded, proper scoring rule) yields models whose predictions are both accurate and well-calibrated. We next show that across diverse datasets, RLCR substantially improves calibration with no loss in accuracy, on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations -- outperforming both ordinary RL training and classifiers trained to assign post-hoc confidence scores. While ordinary RL hurts calibration, RLCR improves it. Finally, we demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be leveraged at test time to improve accuracy and calibration via confidence-weighted scaling methods. Our results show that explicitly optimizing for calibration can produce more generally reliable reasoning models.

Graph-based learning has emerged as a transformative approach for modeling complex relationships across diverse domains, yet its potential in wireless security remains largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce the first application of graph-based learning for jamming source localization, addressing the imminent threat of jamming attacks in wireless networks. Unlike geometric optimization techniques that struggle under environmental uncertainties and dense interference, we reformulate localization as an inductive graph regression task. Our approach integrates structured node representations that encode local and global signal aggregation, ensuring spatial coherence and adaptive signal fusion. To enhance robustness, we incorporate an attention-based graph neural network that adaptively refines neighborhood influence and introduces a confidence-guided estimation mechanism that dynamically balances learned predictions with domain-informed priors. We evaluate our approach under complex radio frequency environments with varying sampling densities and signal propagation conditions, conducting comprehensive ablation studies on graph construction, feature selection, and pooling strategies. Results demonstrate that our novel graph-based learning framework significantly outperforms established localization baselines, particularly in challenging scenarios with sparse and obfuscated signal information. Code is available at [https://github.com/daniaherzalla/gnn-jamming-source-localization](https://github.com/daniaherzalla/gnn-jamming-source-localization).

Quality estimation is omnipresent in machine translation, for both evaluation and generation. Unfortunately, quality estimation models are often opaque and computationally expensive, making them impractical to be part of large-scale pipelines. In this work, we tackle two connected challenges: (1) reducing the cost of quality estimation at scale, and (2) developing an inexpensive uncertainty estimation method for quality estimation. To address the latter, we introduce Instant Confidence COMET, an uncertainty-aware quality estimation model that matches the performance of previous approaches at a fraction of their costs. We extend this to Early-Exit COMET, a quality estimation model that can compute quality scores and associated confidences already at early model layers, allowing us to early-exit computations and reduce evaluation costs. We also apply our model to machine translation reranking. We combine Early-Exit COMET with an upper confidence bound bandit algorithm to find the best candidate from a large pool without having to run the full evaluation model on all candidates. In both cases (evaluation and reranking) our methods reduce the required compute by 50% with very little degradation in performance.

The regression of 3D Human Pose and Shape (HPS) from an image is becoming increasingly accurate. This makes the results useful for downstream tasks like human action recognition or 3D graphics. Yet, no regressor is perfect, and accuracy can be affected by ambiguous image evidence or by poses and appearance that are unseen during training. Most current HPS regressors, however, do not report the confidence of their outputs, meaning that downstream tasks cannot differentiate accurate estimates from inaccurate ones. To address this, we develop POCO, a novel framework for training HPS regressors to estimate not only a 3D human body, but also their confidence, in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, POCO estimates both the 3D body pose and a per-sample variance. The key idea is to introduce a Dual Conditioning Strategy (DCS) for regressing uncertainty that is highly correlated to pose reconstruction quality. The POCO framework can be applied to any HPS regressor and here we evaluate it by modifying HMR, PARE, and CLIFF. In all cases, training the network to reason about uncertainty helps it learn to more accurately estimate 3D pose. While this was not our goal, the improvement is modest but consistent. Our main motivation is to provide uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks; we demonstrate this in two ways: (1) We use the confidence estimates to bootstrap HPS training. Given unlabelled image data, we take the confident estimates of a POCO-trained regressor as pseudo ground truth. Retraining with this automatically-curated data improves accuracy. (2) We exploit uncertainty in video pose estimation by automatically identifying uncertain frames (e.g. due to occlusion) and inpainting these from confident frames. Code and models will be available for research at https://poco.is.tue.mpg.de.

In this paper, we make the first attempt to align diffusion models for image inpainting with human aesthetic standards via a reinforcement learning framework, significantly improving the quality and visual appeal of inpainted images. Specifically, instead of directly measuring the divergence with paired images, we train a reward model with the dataset we construct, consisting of nearly 51,000 images annotated with human preferences. Then, we adopt a reinforcement learning process to fine-tune the distribution of a pre-trained diffusion model for image inpainting in the direction of higher reward. Moreover, we theoretically deduce the upper bound on the error of the reward model, which illustrates the potential confidence of reward estimation throughout the reinforcement alignment process, thereby facilitating accurate regularization. Extensive experiments on inpainting comparison and downstream tasks, such as image extension and 3D reconstruction, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, showing significant improvements in the alignment of inpainted images with human preference compared with state-of-the-art methods. This research not only advances the field of image inpainting but also provides a framework for incorporating human preference into the iterative refinement of generative models based on modeling reward accuracy, with broad implications for the design of visually driven AI applications. Our code and dataset are publicly available at https://prefpaint.github.io.

Although existing stereo matching models have achieved continuous improvement, they often face issues related to trustworthiness due to the absence of uncertainty estimation. Additionally, effectively leveraging multi-scale and multi-view knowledge of stereo pairs remains unexplored. In this paper, we introduce the Evidential Local-global Fusion (ELF) framework for stereo matching, which endows both uncertainty estimation and confidence-aware fusion with trustworthy heads. Instead of predicting the disparity map alone, our model estimates an evidential-based disparity considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. With the normal inverse-Gamma distribution as a bridge, the proposed framework realizes intra evidential fusion of multi-level predictions and inter evidential fusion between cost-volume-based and transformer-based stereo matching. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed framework exploits multi-view information effectively and achieves state-of-the-art overall performance both on accuracy and cross-domain generalization. The codes are available at https://github.com/jimmy19991222/ELFNet.

In this paper, we describe a tool for debugging the output and attention weights of neural machine translation (NMT) systems and for improved estimations of confidence about the output based on the attention. The purpose of the tool is to help researchers and developers find weak and faulty example translations that their NMT systems produce without the need for reference translations. Our tool also includes an option to directly compare translation outputs from two different NMT engines or experiments. In addition, we present a demo website of our tool with examples of good and bad translations: http://attention.lielakeda.lv

Uncertainty estimation is a significant issue for current large language models (LLMs) that are generally poorly calibrated and over-confident, especially with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Unlike humans, whose decisions and confidences not only stem from intrinsic beliefs but can also be adjusted through daily observations, existing calibration methods for LLMs focus on estimating or eliciting individual confidence without taking full advantage of the "Collective Wisdom": the interaction among multiple LLMs that can collectively improve both accuracy and calibration. In this work, we propose Collaborative Calibration, a post-hoc training-free calibration strategy that leverages the collaborative and expressive capabilities of multiple tool-augmented LLM agents in a simulated group deliberation process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Collaborative Calibration on generative QA tasks across various domains, showing its potential in harnessing the rationalization of collectively calibrated confidence assessments and improving the reliability of model predictions.

Algorithms such as Differentially Private SGD enable training machine learning models with formal privacy guarantees. However, there is a discrepancy between the protection that such algorithms guarantee in theory and the protection they afford in practice. An emerging strand of work empirically estimates the protection afforded by differentially private training as a confidence interval for the privacy budget varepsilon spent on training a model. Existing approaches derive confidence intervals for varepsilon from confidence intervals for the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. Unfortunately, obtaining narrow high-confidence intervals for epsilon using this method requires an impractically large sample size and training as many models as samples. We propose a novel Bayesian method that greatly reduces sample size, and adapt and validate a heuristic to draw more than one sample per trained model. Our Bayesian method exploits the hypothesis testing interpretation of differential privacy to obtain a posterior for varepsilon (not just a confidence interval) from the joint posterior of the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. For the same sample size and confidence, we derive confidence intervals for varepsilon around 40% narrower than prior work. The heuristic, which we adapt from label-only DP, can be used to further reduce the number of trained models needed to get enough samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) exhibit remarkable performance for Novel View Synthesis (NVS) given a set of 2D images. However, NeRF training requires accurate camera pose for each input view, typically obtained by Structure-from-Motion (SfM) pipelines. Recent works have attempted to relax this constraint, but they still often rely on decent initial poses which they can refine. Here we aim at removing the requirement for pose initialization. We present Incremental CONfidence (ICON), an optimization procedure for training NeRFs from 2D video frames. ICON only assumes smooth camera motion to estimate initial guess for poses. Further, ICON introduces ``confidence": an adaptive measure of model quality used to dynamically reweight gradients. ICON relies on high-confidence poses to learn NeRF, and high-confidence 3D structure (as encoded by NeRF) to learn poses. We show that ICON, without prior pose initialization, achieves superior performance in both CO3D and HO3D versus methods which use SfM pose.

Bearing in mind the limited parametric knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) which supplies them with the relevant external knowledge has served as an approach to mitigate the issue of hallucinations to a certain extent. However, uniformly retrieving supporting context makes response generation source-inefficient, as triggering the retriever is not always necessary, or even inaccurate, when a model gets distracted by noisy retrieved content and produces an unhelpful answer. Motivated by these issues, we introduce Semantic Uncertainty Guided Adaptive Retrieval (SUGAR), where we leverage context-based entropy to actively decide whether to retrieve and to further determine between single-step and multi-step retrieval. Our empirical results show that selective retrieval guided by semantic uncertainty estimation improves the performance across diverse question answering tasks, as well as achieves a more efficient inference.

Machine learning has markedly advanced de novo peptide sequencing (DNS) for mass spectrometry-based proteomics. DNS tools offer a reliable way to identify peptides without relying on reference databases, extending proteomic analysis and unlocking applications into less-charted regions of the proteome. However, they still face a key limitation. DNS tools lack principled methods for estimating false discovery rates (FDR) and instead rely on model-specific confidence scores that are often miscalibrated. This limits trust in results, hinders cross-model comparisons and reduces validation success. Here we present Winnow, a model-agnostic framework for estimating FDR from calibrated DNS outputs. Winnow maps raw model scores to calibrated confidences using a neural network trained on peptide-spectrum match (PSM)-derived features. From these calibrated scores, Winnow computes PSM-specific error metrics and an experiment-wide FDR estimate using a novel decoy-free FDR estimator. It supports both zero-shot and dataset-specific calibration, enabling flexible application via direct inference, fine-tuning, or training a custom model. We demonstrate that, when applied to InstaNovo predictions, Winnow's calibrator improves recall at fixed FDR thresholds, and its FDR estimator tracks true error rates when benchmarked against reference proteomes and database search. Winnow ensures accurate FDR control across datasets, helping unlock the full potential of DNS.

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift, this behavior remains understudied for GNNs. Hence, we begin with a case study on CI calibration under controlled structural and feature distribution shifts and demonstrate that increased expressivity or model size do not always lead to improved CI performance. Consequently, we instead advocate for the use of epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to modulate CIs. To this end, we propose G-DeltaUQ, a new single model UQ method that extends the recently proposed stochastic centering framework to support structured data and partial stochasticity. Evaluated across covariate, concept, and graph size shifts, G-DeltaUQ not only outperforms several popular UQ methods in obtaining calibrated CIs, but also outperforms alternatives when CIs are used for generalization gap prediction or OOD detection. Overall, our work not only introduces a new, flexible GNN UQ method, but also provides novel insights into GNN CIs on safety-critical tasks.

Monocular depth estimation is crucial for numerous downstream vision tasks and applications. Current discriminative approaches to this problem are limited due to blurry artifacts, while state-of-the-art generative methods suffer from slow sampling due to their SDE nature. Rather than starting from noise, we seek a direct mapping from input image to depth map. We observe that this can be effectively framed using flow matching, since its straight trajectories through solution space offer efficiency and high quality. Our study demonstrates that a pre-trained image diffusion model can serve as an adequate prior for a flow matching depth model, allowing efficient training on only synthetic data to generalize to real images. We find that an auxiliary surface normals loss further improves the depth estimates. Due to the generative nature of our approach, our model reliably predicts the confidence of its depth estimates. On standard benchmarks of complex natural scenes, our lightweight approach exhibits state-of-the-art performance at favorable low computational cost despite only being trained on little synthetic data.

Quality Estimation (QE) is estimating the quality of model output when the ground truth reference is not available. Looking at model uncertainty from its own output probabilities is the most trivial and low-effort way to estimate the output quality. However, for generative model, output probabilities might not be the best quality estimator. At an output step, there can be multiple correct options, making the probability distribution spread out more. Thus, lower token probability does not necessarily mean lower output quality. In other words, the model can be considered underconfident. In this paper, we propose a QE approach called Dominant Mass Probability (DMP}, that boosts the model confidence in cases where there are multiple viable output options. We show that, with no increase in complexity, DMP is notably better than sequence probability when estimating the quality of different models (Whisper, Llama, etc.) on different tasks (translation, summarization, etc.). Compared to sequence probability, DMP achieves on average +0.208 improvement in Pearson correlation to ground-truth quality.

This paper proposes joint attention estimation in a single image. Different from related work in which only the gaze-related attributes of people are independently employed, (I) their locations and actions are also employed as contextual cues for weighting their attributes, and (ii) interactions among all of these attributes are explicitly modeled in our method. For the interaction modeling, we propose a novel Transformer-based attention network to encode joint attention as low-dimensional features. We introduce a specialized MLP head with positional embedding to the Transformer so that it predicts pixelwise confidence of joint attention for generating the confidence heatmap. This pixelwise prediction improves the heatmap accuracy by avoiding the ill-posed problem in which the high-dimensional heatmap is predicted from the low-dimensional features. The estimated joint attention is further improved by being integrated with general image-based attention estimation. Our method outperforms SOTA methods quantitatively in comparative experiments. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/anonymized_codes-ECA4.

Feature matching is a challenging computer vision task that involves finding correspondences between two images of a 3D scene. In this paper we consider the dense approach instead of the more common sparse paradigm, thus striving to find all correspondences. Perhaps counter-intuitively, dense methods have previously shown inferior performance to their sparse and semi-sparse counterparts for estimation of two-view geometry. This changes with our novel dense method, which outperforms both dense and sparse methods on geometry estimation. The novelty is threefold: First, we propose a kernel regression global matcher. Secondly, we propose warp refinement through stacked feature maps and depthwise convolution kernels. Thirdly, we propose learning dense confidence through consistent depth and a balanced sampling approach for dense confidence maps. Through extensive experiments we confirm that our proposed dense method, Dense Kernelized Feature Matching, sets a new state-of-the-art on multiple geometry estimation benchmarks. In particular, we achieve an improvement on MegaDepth-1500 of +4.9 and +8.9 AUC@5^{circ} compared to the best previous sparse method and dense method respectively. Our code is provided at https://github.com/Parskatt/dkm

In this paper we propose FastViDAR, a novel framework that takes four fisheye camera inputs and produces a full 360^circ depth map along with per-camera depth, fusion depth, and confidence estimates. Our main contributions are: (1) We introduce Alternative Hierarchical Attention (AHA) mechanism that efficiently fuses features across views through separate intra-frame and inter-frame windowed self-attention, achieving cross-view feature mixing with reduced overhead. (2) We propose a novel ERP fusion approach that projects multi-view depth estimates to a shared equirectangular coordinate system to obtain the final fusion depth. (3) We generate ERP image-depth pairs using HM3D and 2D3D-S datasets for comprehensive evaluation, demonstrating competitive zero-shot performance on real datasets while achieving up to 20 FPS on NVIDIA Orin NX embedded hardware. Project page: https://3f7dfc.github.io/FastVidar/{https://3f7dfc.github.io/FastVidar/}

A crucial requirement for reliable deployment of deep learning models for safety-critical applications is the ability to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data points, samples which differ from the training data and on which a model might underperform. Previous work has attempted to tackle this problem using uncertainty estimation techniques. However, there is empirical evidence that a large family of these techniques do not detect OOD reliably in classification tasks. This paper gives a theoretical explanation for said experimental findings and illustrates it on synthetic data. We prove that such techniques are not able to reliably identify OOD samples in a classification setting, since their level of confidence is generalized to unseen areas of the feature space. This result stems from the interplay between the representation of ReLU networks as piece-wise affine transformations, the saturating nature of activation functions like softmax, and the most widely-used uncertainty metrics.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for enhancing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes applications. Existing methods often overlook semantic dependencies, relying on token-level probability measures that fail to capture structural relationships within the generated text. We propose GENUINE: Graph ENhanced mUlti-level uncertaINty Estimation for Large Language Models, a structure-aware framework that leverages dependency parse trees and hierarchical graph pooling to refine uncertainty quantification. By incorporating supervised learning, GENUINE effectively models semantic and structural relationships, improving confidence assessments. Extensive experiments across NLP tasks show that GENUINE achieves up to 29% higher AUROC than semantic entropy-based approaches and reduces calibration errors by over 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of graph-based uncertainty modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/ODYSSEYWT/GUQ.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

This paper presents a new methodology to alleviate the fundamental trade-off between accuracy and latency in spiking neural networks (SNNs). The approach involves decoding confidence information over time from the SNN outputs and using it to develop a decision-making agent that can dynamically determine when to terminate each inference. The proposed method, Dynamic Confidence, provides several significant benefits to SNNs. 1. It can effectively optimize latency dynamically at runtime, setting it apart from many existing low-latency SNN algorithms. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets have demonstrated an average 40% speedup across eight different settings after applying Dynamic Confidence. 2. The decision-making agent in Dynamic Confidence is straightforward to construct and highly robust in parameter space, making it extremely easy to implement. 3. The proposed method enables visualizing the potential of any given SNN, which sets a target for current SNNs to approach. For instance, if an SNN can terminate at the most appropriate time point for each input sample, a ResNet-50 SNN can achieve an accuracy as high as 82.47% on ImageNet within just 4.71 time steps on average. Unlocking the potential of SNNs needs a highly-reliable decision-making agent to be constructed and fed with a high-quality estimation of ground truth. In this regard, Dynamic Confidence represents a meaningful step toward realizing the potential of SNNs.

Estimating the transferability of publicly available pretrained models to a target task has assumed an important place for transfer learning tasks in recent years. Existing efforts propose metrics that allow a user to choose one model from a pool of pre-trained models without having to fine-tune each model individually and identify one explicitly. With the growth in the number of available pre-trained models and the popularity of model ensembles, it also becomes essential to study the transferability of multiple-source models for a given target task. The few existing efforts study transferability in such multi-source ensemble settings using just the outputs of the classification layer and neglect possible domain or task mismatch. Moreover, they overlook the most important factor while selecting the source models, viz., the cohesiveness factor between them, which can impact the performance and confidence in the prediction of the ensemble. To address these gaps, we propose a novel Optimal tranSport-based suBmOdular tRaNsferability metric (OSBORN) to estimate the transferability of an ensemble of models to a downstream task. OSBORN collectively accounts for image domain difference, task difference, and cohesiveness of models in the ensemble to provide reliable estimates of transferability. We gauge the performance of OSBORN on both image classification and semantic segmentation tasks. Our setup includes 28 source datasets, 11 target datasets, 5 model architectures, and 2 pre-training methods. We benchmark our method against current state-of-the-art metrics MS-LEEP and E-LEEP, and outperform them consistently using the proposed approach.

This paper introduces a novel human pose estimation benchmark, Human Pose with Millimeter Wave Radar (HuPR), that includes synchronized vision and radio signal components. This dataset is created using cross-calibrated mmWave radar sensors and a monocular RGB camera for cross-modality training of radar-based human pose estimation. There are two advantages of using mmWave radar to perform human pose estimation. First, it is robust to dark and low-light conditions. Second, it is not visually perceivable by humans and thus, can be widely applied to applications with privacy concerns, e.g., surveillance systems in patient rooms. In addition to the benchmark, we propose a cross-modality training framework that leverages the ground-truth 2D keypoints representing human body joints for training, which are systematically generated from the pre-trained 2D pose estimation network based on a monocular camera input image, avoiding laborious manual label annotation efforts. The framework consists of a new radar pre-processing method that better extracts the velocity information from radar data, Cross- and Self-Attention Module (CSAM), to fuse multi-scale radar features, and Pose Refinement Graph Convolutional Networks (PRGCN), to refine the predicted keypoint confidence heatmaps. Our intensive experiments on the HuPR benchmark show that the proposed scheme achieves better human pose estimation performance with only radar data, as compared to traditional pre-processing solutions and previous radio-frequency-based methods.

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown high agreement with human raters across a variety of tasks, demonstrating potential to ease the challenges of human data collection. In computational social science (CSS), researchers are increasingly leveraging LLM annotations to complement slow and expensive human annotations. Still, guidelines for collecting and using LLM annotations, without compromising the validity of downstream conclusions, remain limited. We introduce Confidence-Driven Inference: a method that combines LLM annotations and LLM confidence indicators to strategically select which human annotations should be collected, with the goal of producing accurate statistical estimates and provably valid confidence intervals while reducing the number of human annotations needed. Our approach comes with safeguards against LLM annotations of poor quality, guaranteeing that the conclusions will be both valid and no less accurate than if we only relied on human annotations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Confidence-Driven Inference over baselines in statistical estimation tasks across three CSS settings--text politeness, stance, and bias--reducing the needed number of human annotations by over 25% in each. Although we use CSS settings for demonstration, Confidence-Driven Inference can be used to estimate most standard quantities across a broad range of NLP problems.

In the realm of robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery, dynamic scene reconstruction can significantly enhance downstream tasks and improve surgical outcomes. Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF)-based methods have recently risen to prominence for their exceptional ability to reconstruct scenes but are hampered by slow inference speed, prolonged training, and inconsistent depth estimation. Some previous work utilizes ground truth depth for optimization but is hard to acquire in the surgical domain. To overcome these obstacles, we present Endo-4DGS, a real-time endoscopic dynamic reconstruction approach that utilizes 3D Gaussian Splatting (GS) for 3D representation. Specifically, we propose lightweight MLPs to capture temporal dynamics with Gaussian deformation fields. To obtain a satisfactory Gaussian Initialization, we exploit a powerful depth estimation foundation model, Depth-Anything, to generate pseudo-depth maps as a geometry prior. We additionally propose confidence-guided learning to tackle the ill-pose problems in monocular depth estimation and enhance the depth-guided reconstruction with surface normal constraints and depth regularization. Our approach has been validated on two surgical datasets, where it can effectively render in real-time, compute efficiently, and reconstruct with remarkable accuracy.

Gravitational waves from asymmetric mass-ratio black-hole binaries carry unique information about their astrophysical environment. For instance, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) could potentially measure the amplitude and slope of gas torques in binaries embedded in the accretion disks of Active Galactic Nuclei, helping differentiate competing accretion disk models. However, this relies on simplified analytic models, which do not account for the stochastic variability of torques seen in hydrodynamic simulations. In this work, we use hydrodynamic simulations to create gravitational waveforms for extreme and intermediate mass-ratio inspirals in the LISA band. We then analyze these simulated waveforms using simpler templates that assume analytic torques, without stochastic time variability. By performing realistic Bayesian parameter estimation, we find no bias at 90% confidence in the binary parameters; however, estimates of accretion disk parameters, such as torque amplitude and slope, may be biased. Typically, the posterior distribution is centered around the average value of the torques, but when stochastic variability is large, the posterior can indicate no torques, even though they are present in the simulation. Our results suggest that while simplified analytic torque models work well for estimating binary parameters, caution is needed when using them to infer properties of the accretion disk. This work moves towards a more realistic assessment of one of the LISA science objectives, i.e., probing the properties of the astrophysical environments of black holes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have the impressive ability to perform in-context learning (ICL) from only a few examples, but the success of ICL varies widely from task to task. Thus, it is important to quickly determine whether ICL is applicable to a new task, but directly evaluating ICL accuracy can be expensive in situations where test data is expensive to annotate -- the exact situations where ICL is most appealing. In this paper, we propose the task of ICL accuracy estimation, in which we predict the accuracy of an LLM when doing in-context learning on a new task given only unlabeled test data for that task. To perform ICL accuracy estimation, we propose a method that trains a meta-model using LLM confidence scores as features. We compare our method to several strong accuracy estimation baselines on a new benchmark that covers 4 LLMs and 3 task collections. The meta-model improves over all baselines across 8 out of 12 settings and achieves the same estimation performance as directly evaluating on 40 collected labeled test examples per task. At the same time, no existing approach provides an accurate and reliable ICL accuracy estimation in every setting, highlighting the need for better ways to measure the uncertainty of LLM predictions.

The rapid expansion of medical literature presents growing challenges for structuring and integrating domain knowledge at scale. Knowledge Graphs (KGs) offer a promising solution by enabling efficient retrieval, automated reasoning, and knowledge discovery. However, current KG construction methods often rely on supervised pipelines with limited generalizability or naively aggregate outputs from Large Language Models (LLMs), treating biomedical corpora as static and ignoring the temporal dynamics and contextual uncertainty of evolving knowledge. To address these limitations, we introduce MedKGent, a LLM agent framework for constructing temporally evolving medical KGs. Leveraging over 10 million PubMed abstracts published between 1975 and 2023, we simulate the emergence of biomedical knowledge via a fine-grained daily time series. MedKGent incrementally builds the KG in a day-by-day manner using two specialized agents powered by the Qwen2.5-32B-Instruct model. The Extractor Agent identifies knowledge triples and assigns confidence scores via sampling-based estimation, which are used to filter low-confidence extractions and inform downstream processing. The Constructor Agent incrementally integrates the retained triples into a temporally evolving graph, guided by confidence scores and timestamps to reinforce recurring knowledge and resolve conflicts. The resulting KG contains 156,275 entities and 2,971,384 relational triples. Quality assessments by two SOTA LLMs and three domain experts demonstrate an accuracy approaching 90%, with strong inter-rater agreement. To evaluate downstream utility, we conduct RAG across seven medical question answering benchmarks using five leading LLMs, consistently observing significant improvements over non-augmented baselines. Case studies further demonstrate the KG's value in literature-based drug repurposing via confidence-aware causal inference.

We introduce a learning-based depth map fusion framework that accepts a set of depth and confidence maps generated by a Multi-View Stereo (MVS) algorithm as input and improves them. This is accomplished by integrating volumetric visibility constraints that encode long-range surface relationships across different views into an end-to-end trainable architecture. We also introduce a depth search window estimation sub-network trained jointly with the larger fusion sub-network to reduce the depth hypothesis search space along each ray. Our method learns to model depth consensus and violations of visibility constraints directly from the data; effectively removing the necessity of fine-tuning fusion parameters. Extensive experiments on MVS datasets show substantial improvements in the accuracy of the output fused depth and confidence maps.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has emerged as a core technique for 3D representation. Its effectiveness largely depends on precise camera poses and accurate point cloud initialization, which are often derived from pretrained Multi-View Stereo (MVS) models. However, in unposed reconstruction task from hundreds of outdoor images, existing MVS models may struggle with memory limits and lose accuracy as the number of input images grows. To address this limitation, we propose a novel unposed 3DGS reconstruction framework that integrates pretrained MVS priors with the probabilistic Procrustes mapping strategy. The method partitions input images into subsets, maps submaps into a global space, and jointly optimizes geometry and poses with 3DGS. Technically, we formulate the mapping of tens of millions of point clouds as a probabilistic Procrustes problem and solve a closed-form alignment. By employing probabilistic coupling along with a soft dustbin mechanism to reject uncertain correspondences, our method globally aligns point clouds and poses within minutes across hundreds of images. Moreover, we propose a joint optimization framework for 3DGS and camera poses. It constructs Gaussians from confidence-aware anchor points and integrates 3DGS differentiable rendering with an analytical Jacobian to jointly refine scene and poses, enabling accurate reconstruction and pose estimation. Experiments on Waymo and KITTI datasets show that our method achieves accurate reconstruction from unposed image sequences, setting a new state of the art for unposed 3DGS reconstruction.

Sequential Recommenders generate recommendations based on users' historical interaction sequences. However, in practice, these collected sequences are often contaminated by noisy interactions, which significantly impairs recommendation performance. Accurately identifying such noisy interactions without additional information is particularly challenging due to the absence of explicit supervisory signals indicating noise. Large Language Models (LLMs), equipped with extensive open knowledge and semantic reasoning abilities, offer a promising avenue to bridge this information gap. However, employing LLMs for denoising in sequential recommendation presents notable challenges: 1) Direct application of pretrained LLMs may not be competent for the denoising task, frequently generating nonsensical responses; 2) Even after fine-tuning, the reliability of LLM outputs remains questionable, especially given the complexity of the denoising task and the inherent hallucinatory issue of LLMs. To tackle these challenges, we propose LLM4DSR, a tailored approach for denoising sequential recommendation using LLMs. We constructed a self-supervised fine-tuning task to activate LLMs' capabilities to identify noisy items and suggest replacements. Furthermore, we developed an uncertainty estimation module that ensures only high-confidence responses are utilized for sequence corrections. Remarkably, LLM4DSR is model-agnostic, allowing corrected sequences to be flexibly applied across various recommendation models. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of LLM4DSR over existing methods.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Several neural-based metrics have been recently proposed to evaluate machine translation quality. However, all of them resort to point estimates, which provide limited information at segment level. This is made worse as they are trained on noisy, biased and scarce human judgements, often resulting in unreliable quality predictions. In this paper, we introduce uncertainty-aware MT evaluation and analyze the trustworthiness of the predicted quality. We combine the COMET framework with two uncertainty estimation methods, Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles, to obtain quality scores along with confidence intervals. We compare the performance of our uncertainty-aware MT evaluation methods across multiple language pairs from the QT21 dataset and the WMT20 metrics task, augmented with MQM annotations. We experiment with varying numbers of references and further discuss the usefulness of uncertainty-aware quality estimation (without references) to flag possibly critical translation mistakes.

Deep learning has revolutionized medical imaging, but its effectiveness is severely limited by insufficient labeled training data. This paper introduces a novel GAN-based semi-supervised learning framework specifically designed for low labeled-data regimes, evaluated across settings with 5 to 50 labeled samples per class. Our approach integrates three specialized neural networks -- a generator for class-conditioned image translation, a discriminator for authenticity assessment and classification, and a dedicated classifier -- within a three-phase training framework. The method alternates between supervised training on limited labeled data and unsupervised learning that leverages abundant unlabeled images through image-to-image translation rather than generation from noise. We employ ensemble-based pseudo-labeling that combines confidence-weighted predictions from the discriminator and classifier with temporal consistency through exponential moving averaging, enabling reliable label estimation for unlabeled data. Comprehensive evaluation across eleven MedMNIST datasets demonstrates that our approach achieves statistically significant improvements over six state-of-the-art GAN-based semi-supervised methods, with particularly strong performance in the extreme 5-shot setting where the scarcity of labeled data is most challenging. The framework maintains its superiority across all evaluated settings (5, 10, 20, and 50 shots per class). Our approach offers a practical solution for medical imaging applications where annotation costs are prohibitive, enabling robust classification performance even with minimal labeled data. Code is available at https://github.com/GuidoManni/SPARSE.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

Vision-based semantic occupancy and flow prediction plays a crucial role in providing spatiotemporal cues for real-world tasks, such as autonomous driving. Existing methods prioritize higher accuracy to cater to the demands of these tasks. In this work, we strive to improve performance by introducing a series of targeted improvements for 3D semantic occupancy prediction and flow estimation. First, we introduce an occlusion-aware adaptive lifting mechanism with a depth denoising technique to improve the robustness of 2D-to-3D feature transformation and reduce the reliance on depth priors. Second, we strengthen the semantic consistency between 3D features and their original 2D modalities by utilizing shared semantic prototypes to jointly constrain both 2D and 3D features. This is complemented by confidence- and category-based sampling strategies to tackle long-tail challenges in 3D space. To alleviate the feature encoding burden in the joint prediction of semantics and flow, we propose a BEV cost volume-based prediction method that links flow and semantic features through a cost volume and employs a classification-regression supervision scheme to address the varying flow scales in dynamic scenes. Our purely convolutional architecture framework, named ALOcc, achieves an optimal tradeoff between speed and accuracy achieving state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks. On Occ3D and training without the camera visible mask, our ALOcc achieves an absolute gain of 2.5\% in terms of RayIoU while operating at a comparable speed compared to the state-of-the-art, using the same input size (256times704) and ResNet-50 backbone. Our method also achieves 2nd place in the CVPR24 Occupancy and Flow Prediction Competition.

Emerging 3D geometric foundation models, such as DUSt3R, offer a promising approach for in-the-wild 3D vision tasks. However, due to the high-dimensional nature of the problem space and scarcity of high-quality 3D data, these pre-trained models still struggle to generalize to many challenging circumstances, such as limited view overlap or low lighting. To address this, we propose LoRA3D, an efficient self-calibration pipeline to specialize the pre-trained models to target scenes using their own multi-view predictions. Taking sparse RGB images as input, we leverage robust optimization techniques to refine multi-view predictions and align them into a global coordinate frame. In particular, we incorporate prediction confidence into the geometric optimization process, automatically re-weighting the confidence to better reflect point estimation accuracy. We use the calibrated confidence to generate high-quality pseudo labels for the calibrating views and use low-rank adaptation (LoRA) to fine-tune the models on the pseudo-labeled data. Our method does not require any external priors or manual labels. It completes the self-calibration process on a single standard GPU within just 5 minutes. Each low-rank adapter requires only 18MB of storage. We evaluated our method on more than 160 scenes from the Replica, TUM and Waymo Open datasets, achieving up to 88% performance improvement on 3D reconstruction, multi-view pose estimation and novel-view rendering.

Ensuring that large language models (LLMs) reflect diverse user values and preferences is crucial as their user bases expand globally. It is therefore encouraging to see the growing interest in LLM personalization within the research community. However, current works often rely on the LLM-as-a-Judge approach for evaluation without thoroughly examining its validity. In this paper, we investigate the reliability of LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge, asking LLMs to judge user preferences based on personas. Our findings suggest that directly applying LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge is less reliable than previously assumed, showing low and inconsistent agreement with human ground truth. The personas typically used are often overly simplistic, resulting in low predictive power. To address these issues, we introduce verbal uncertainty estimation into the LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge pipeline, allowing the model to express low confidence on uncertain judgments. This adjustment leads to much higher agreement (above 80%) on high-certainty samples for binary tasks. Through human evaluation, we find that the LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge achieves comparable performance to third-party humans evaluation and even surpasses human performance on high-certainty samples. Our work indicates that certainty-enhanced LLM-as-a-Personalized-Judge offers a promising direction for developing more reliable and scalable methods for evaluating LLM personalization.

Hallucination in Large Language Models (LLMs) refers to the generation of content that is not faithful to the input or the real-world facts. This paper provides a rigorous treatment of hallucination in LLMs, including formal definitions and theoretical analyses. We distinguish between intrinsic and extrinsic hallucinations, and define a hallucination risk for models. We derive bounds on this risk using learning-theoretic frameworks (PAC-Bayes and Rademacher complexity). We then survey detection strategies for hallucinations, such as token-level uncertainty estimation, confidence calibration, and attention alignment checks. On the mitigation side, we discuss approaches including retrieval-augmented generation, hallucination-aware fine-tuning, logit calibration, and the incorporation of fact-verification modules. We propose a unified detection and mitigation workflow, illustrated with a diagram, to integrate these strategies. Finally, we outline evaluation protocols for hallucination, recommending datasets, metrics, and experimental setups to quantify and reduce hallucinations. Our work lays a theoretical foundation and practical guidelines for addressing the crucial challenge of hallucination in LLMs.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of offline Preference-based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) with human feedback where feedback is available in the form of preference between trajectory pairs rather than explicit rewards. Our proposed algorithm consists of two main steps: (1) estimate the implicit reward using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) with general function approximation from offline data and (2) solve a distributionally robust planning problem over a confidence set around the MLE. We consider the general reward setting where the reward can be defined over the whole trajectory and provide a novel guarantee that allows us to learn any target policy with a polynomial number of samples, as long as the target policy is covered by the offline data. This guarantee is the first of its kind with general function approximation. To measure the coverage of the target policy, we introduce a new single-policy concentrability coefficient, which can be upper bounded by the per-trajectory concentrability coefficient. We also establish lower bounds that highlight the necessity of such concentrability and the difference from standard RL, where state-action-wise rewards are directly observed. We further extend and analyze our algorithm when the feedback is given over action pairs.

A recent line of works showed regret bounds in reinforcement learning (RL) can be (nearly) independent of planning horizon, a.k.a.~the horizon-free bounds. However, these regret bounds only apply to settings where a polynomial dependency on the size of transition model is allowed, such as tabular Markov Decision Process (MDP) and linear mixture MDP. We give the first horizon-free bound for the popular linear MDP setting where the size of the transition model can be exponentially large or even uncountable. In contrast to prior works which explicitly estimate the transition model and compute the inhomogeneous value functions at different time steps, we directly estimate the value functions and confidence sets. We obtain the horizon-free bound by: (1) maintaining multiple weighted least square estimators for the value functions; and (2) a structural lemma which shows the maximal total variation of the inhomogeneous value functions is bounded by a polynomial factor of the feature dimension.

Modern Recurrent Neural Networks have become a competitive architecture for 3D reconstruction due to their linear-time complexity. However, their performance degrades significantly when applied beyond the training context length, revealing limited length generalization. In this work, we revisit the 3D reconstruction foundation models from a Test-Time Training perspective, framing their designs as an online learning problem. Building on this perspective, we leverage the alignment confidence between the memory state and incoming observations to derive a closed-form learning rate for memory updates, to balance between retaining historical information and adapting to new observations. This training-free intervention, termed TTT3R, substantially improves length generalization, achieving a 2times improvement in global pose estimation over baselines, while operating at 20 FPS with just 6 GB of GPU memory to process thousands of images. Code available in https://rover-xingyu.github.io/TTT3R

Remote sensing object detection (RSOD) faces formidable challenges in complex visual environments. Aerial and satellite images inherently suffer from limitations such as low spatial resolution, sensor noise, blurred objects, low-light degradation, and partial occlusions. These degradation factors collectively compromise the feature discriminability in detection models, resulting in three key issues: (1) reduced contrast that hampers foreground-background separation, (2) structural discontinuities in edge representations, and (3) ambiguous feature responses caused by variations in illumination. These collectively weaken model robustness and deployment feasibility. To address these challenges, we propose LEGNet, a lightweight network that incorporates a novel edge-Gaussian aggregation (EGA) module specifically designed for low-quality remote sensing images. Our key innovation lies in the synergistic integration of Scharr operator-based edge priors with uncertainty-aware Gaussian modeling: (a) The orientation-aware Scharr filters preserve high-frequency edge details with rotational invariance; (b) The uncertainty-aware Gaussian layers probabilistically refine low-confidence features through variance estimation. This design enables precision enhancement while maintaining architectural simplicity. Comprehensive evaluations across four RSOD benchmarks (DOTA-v1.0, v1.5, DIOR-R, FAIR1M-v1.0) and a UAV-view dataset (VisDrone2019) demonstrate significant improvements. LEGNet achieves state-of-the-art performance across five benchmark datasets while ensuring computational efficiency, making it well-suited for deployment on resource-constrained edge devices in real-world remote sensing applications. The code is available at https://github.com/lwCVer/LEGNet.

3D multi-object tracking (MOT) is essential for an autonomous mobile agent to safely navigate a scene. In order to maximize the perception capabilities of the autonomous agent, we aim to develop a 3D MOT framework that fuses camera and LiDAR sensor information. Building on our prior LiDAR-only work, ShaSTA, which models shape and spatio-temporal affinities for 3D MOT, we propose a novel camera-LiDAR fusion approach for learning affinities. At its core, this work proposes a fusion technique that generates a rich sensory signal incorporating information about depth and distant objects to enhance affinity estimation for improved data association, track lifecycle management, false-positive elimination, false-negative propagation, and track confidence score refinement. Our main contributions include a novel fusion approach for combining camera and LiDAR sensory signals to learn affinities, and a first-of-its-kind multimodal sequential track confidence refinement technique that fuses 2D and 3D detections. Additionally, we perform an ablative analysis on each fusion step to demonstrate the added benefits of incorporating the camera sensor, particular for small, distant objects that tend to suffer from the depth-sensing limits and sparsity of LiDAR sensors. In sum, our technique achieves state-of-the-art performance on the nuScenes benchmark amongst multimodal 3D MOT algorithms using CenterPoint detections.

We introduce BSDetector, a method for detecting bad and speculative answers from a pretrained Large Language Model by estimating a numeric confidence score for any output it generated. Our uncertainty quantification technique works for any LLM accessible only via a black-box API, whose training data remains unknown. By expending a bit of extra computation, users of any LLM API can now get the same response as they would ordinarily, as well as a confidence estimate that cautions when not to trust this response. Experiments on both closed and open-form Question-Answer benchmarks reveal that BSDetector more accurately identifies incorrect LLM responses than alternative uncertainty estimation procedures (for both GPT-3 and ChatGPT). By sampling multiple responses from the LLM and considering the one with the highest confidence score, we can additionally obtain more accurate responses from the same LLM, without any extra training steps. In applications involving automated evaluation with LLMs, accounting for our confidence scores leads to more reliable evaluation in both human-in-the-loop and fully-automated settings (across both GPT 3.5 and 4).

Recommender systems widely use implicit feedback such as click data because of its general availability. Although the presence of clicks signals the users' preference to some extent, the lack of such clicks does not necessarily indicate a negative response from the users, as it is possible that the users were not exposed to the items (positive-unlabeled problem). This leads to a difficulty in predicting the users' preferences from implicit feedback. Previous studies addressed the positive-unlabeled problem by uniformly upweighting the loss for the positive feedback data or estimating the confidence of each data having relevance information via the EM-algorithm. However, these methods failed to address the missing-not-at-random problem in which popular or frequently recommended items are more likely to be clicked than other items even if a user does not have a considerable interest in them. To overcome these limitations, we first define an ideal loss function to be optimized to realize recommendations that maximize the relevance and propose an unbiased estimator for the ideal loss. Subsequently, we analyze the variance of the proposed unbiased estimator and further propose a clipped estimator that includes the unbiased estimator as a special case. We demonstrate that the clipped estimator is expected to improve the performance of the recommender system, by considering the bias-variance trade-off. We conduct semi-synthetic and real-world experiments and demonstrate that the proposed method largely outperforms the baselines. In particular, the proposed method works better for rare items that are less frequently observed in the training data. The findings indicate that the proposed method can better achieve the objective of recommending items with the highest relevance.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a standard recipe for improving large language models (LLMs) on reasoning tasks, with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) widely used in practice. Yet GRPO wastes substantial compute on negative groups: groups in which no sampled response is correct yield zero advantage and thus no gradient. We ask whether negative groups can be leveraged without extra supervision. Starting from a maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective in reward modeling, we show that the MLE gradient is equivalent to a policy gradient for a modified value function. This value function adds a confidence-weighted penalty on incorrect responses, imposing larger penalties on more confident mistakes. We refer to this as Likelihood Estimation with Negative Samples (LENS). LENS modifies GRPO to assign non-zero, confidence-dependent rewards to incorrect generations, making negative groups informative and converting previously wasted samples into useful gradient updates. On the MATH benchmark with Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen-2.5-3B, the proposed variant consistently outperforms GRPO baseline, with significant gains on harder items. These results demonstrate a principled and practical way to "rescue" negative groups, improving efficiency and performance in RLVR.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Test-time adaptation methods have been gaining attention recently as a practical solution for addressing source-to-target domain gaps by gradually updating the model without requiring labels on the target data. In this paper, we propose a method of test-time adaptation for category-level object pose estimation called TTA-COPE. We design a pose ensemble approach with a self-training loss using pose-aware confidence. Unlike previous unsupervised domain adaptation methods for category-level object pose estimation, our approach processes the test data in a sequential, online manner, and it does not require access to the source domain at runtime. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed pose ensemble and the self-training loss improve category-level object pose performance during test time under both semi-supervised and unsupervised settings. Project page: https://taeyeop.com/ttacope

We present IterMVS, a new data-driven method for high-resolution multi-view stereo. We propose a novel GRU-based estimator that encodes pixel-wise probability distributions of depth in its hidden state. Ingesting multi-scale matching information, our model refines these distributions over multiple iterations and infers depth and confidence. To extract the depth maps, we combine traditional classification and regression in a novel manner. We verify the efficiency and effectiveness of our method on DTU, Tanks&Temples and ETH3D. While being the most efficient method in both memory and run-time, our model achieves competitive performance on DTU and better generalization ability on Tanks&Temples as well as ETH3D than most state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at https://github.com/FangjinhuaWang/IterMVS.

Accurate monocular metric depth estimation (MMDE) is crucial to solving downstream tasks in 3D perception and modeling. However, the remarkable accuracy of recent MMDE methods is confined to their training domains. These methods fail to generalize to unseen domains even in the presence of moderate domain gaps, which hinders their practical applicability. We propose a new model, UniDepthV2, capable of reconstructing metric 3D scenes from solely single images across domains. Departing from the existing MMDE paradigm, UniDepthV2 directly predicts metric 3D points from the input image at inference time without any additional information, striving for a universal and flexible MMDE solution. In particular, UniDepthV2 implements a self-promptable camera module predicting a dense camera representation to condition depth features. Our model exploits a pseudo-spherical output representation, which disentangles the camera and depth representations. In addition, we propose a geometric invariance loss that promotes the invariance of camera-prompted depth features. UniDepthV2 improves its predecessor UniDepth model via a new edge-guided loss which enhances the localization and sharpness of edges in the metric depth outputs, a revisited, simplified and more efficient architectural design, and an additional uncertainty-level output which enables downstream tasks requiring confidence. Thorough evaluations on ten depth datasets in a zero-shot regime consistently demonstrate the superior performance and generalization of UniDepthV2. Code and models are available at https://github.com/lpiccinelli-eth/UniDepth

With the recent advances in video and 3D understanding, novel 4D spatio-temporal methods fusing both concepts have emerged. Towards this direction, the Ego4D Episodic Memory Benchmark proposed a task for Visual Queries with 3D Localization (VQ3D). Given an egocentric video clip and an image crop depicting a query object, the goal is to localize the 3D position of the center of that query object with respect to the camera pose of a query frame. Current methods tackle the problem of VQ3D by unprojecting the 2D localization results of the sibling task Visual Queries with 2D Localization (VQ2D) into 3D predictions. Yet, we point out that the low number of camera poses caused by camera re-localization from previous VQ3D methods severally hinders their overall success rate. In this work, we formalize a pipeline (we dub EgoLoc) that better entangles 3D multiview geometry with 2D object retrieval from egocentric videos. Our approach involves estimating more robust camera poses and aggregating multi-view 3D displacements by leveraging the 2D detection confidence, which enhances the success rate of object queries and leads to a significant improvement in the VQ3D baseline performance. Specifically, our approach achieves an overall success rate of up to 87.12%, which sets a new state-of-the-art result in the VQ3D task. We provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of the VQ3D task and existing solutions, and highlight the remaining challenges in VQ3D. The code is available at https://github.com/Wayne-Mai/EgoLoc.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

Multi-source unsupervised domain adaptation (MUDA) is a framework to address the challenge of annotated data scarcity in a target domain via transferring knowledge from multiple annotated source domains. When the source domains are distributed, data privacy and security can become significant concerns and protocols may limit data sharing, yet existing MUDA methods overlook these constraints. We develop an algorithm to address MUDA when source domain data cannot be shared with the target or across the source domains. Our method is based on aligning the distributions of source and target domains indirectly via estimating the source feature embeddings and predicting over a confidence based combination of domain specific model predictions. We provide theoretical analysis to support our approach and conduct empirical experiments to demonstrate that our algorithm is effective.

Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current multimodal classification methods suffer from unreliable predictive confidence that tend to rely on partial modalities when estimating confidence. Specifically, we find that the confidence estimated by current models could even increase when some modalities are corrupted. To address the issue, we introduce an intuitive principle for multimodal learning, i.e., the confidence should not increase when one modality is removed. Accordingly, we propose a novel regularization technique, i.e., Calibrating Multimodal Learning (CML) regularization, to calibrate the predictive confidence of previous methods. This technique could be flexibly equipped by existing models and improve the performance in terms of confidence calibration, classification accuracy, and model robustness.

While multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have made significant progress in complex reasoning tasks via reinforcement learning, it is commonly believed that extensive training data is necessary for improving multi-modal reasoning ability, inevitably leading to data redundancy and substantial computational costs. However, can smaller high-value datasets match or outperform full corpora for multi-modal reasoning in MLLMs? In this work, we challenge this assumption through a key observation: meaningful multi-modal reasoning is triggered by only a sparse subset of training samples, termed cognitive samples, whereas the majority contribute marginally. Building on this insight, we propose a novel data selection paradigm termed Reasoning Activation Potential (RAP), which identifies cognitive samples by estimating each sample's potential to stimulate genuine multi-modal reasoning by two complementary estimators: 1) Causal Discrepancy Estimator (CDE) based on the potential outcome model principle, eliminates samples that overly rely on language priors by comparing outputs between multi-modal and text-only inputs; 2) Attention Confidence Estimator (ACE), which exploits token-level self-attention to discard samples dominated by irrelevant but over-emphasized tokens in intermediate reasoning stages. Moreover, we introduce a Difficulty-aware Replacement Module (DRM) to substitute trivial instances with cognitively challenging ones, thereby ensuring complexity for robust multi-modal reasoning. Experiments on six datasets show that our RAP method consistently achieves superior performance using only 9.3% of the training data, while reducing computational costs by over 43%. Our code is available at https://github.com/Leo-ssl/RAP.