Daily Papers

Diffusion models (DMs) excel in image generation, but suffer from slow inference and the training-inference discrepancies. Although gradient-based solvers like DPM-Solver accelerate the denoising inference, they lack theoretical foundations in information transmission efficiency. In this work, we introduce an information-theoretic perspective on the inference processes of DMs, revealing that successful denoising fundamentally reduces conditional entropy in reverse transitions. This principle leads to our key insights into the inference processes: (1) data prediction parameterization outperforms its noise counterpart, and (2) optimizing conditional variance offers a reference-free way to minimize both transition and reconstruction errors. Based on these insights, we propose an entropy-aware variance optimized method for the generative process of DMs, called EVODiff, which systematically reduces uncertainty by optimizing conditional entropy during denoising. Extensive experiments on DMs validate our insights and demonstrate that our method significantly and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) gradient-based solvers. For example, compared to the DPM-Solver++, EVODiff reduces the reconstruction error by up to 45.5\% (FID improves from 5.10 to 2.78) at 10 function evaluations (NFE) on CIFAR-10, cuts the NFE cost by 25\% (from 20 to 15 NFE) for high-quality samples on ImageNet-256, and improves text-to-image generation while reducing artifacts. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiguiLi/EVODiff.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have exhibited excellent performance for high-fidelity image generation while suffering from inefficient sampling. Recent works accelerate the sampling procedure by proposing fast ODE solvers that leverage the specific ODE form of DPMs. However, they highly rely on specific parameterization during inference (such as noise/data prediction), which might not be the optimal choice. In this work, we propose a novel formulation towards the optimal parameterization during sampling that minimizes the first-order discretization error of the ODE solution. Based on such formulation, we propose DPM-Solver-v3, a new fast ODE solver for DPMs by introducing several coefficients efficiently computed on the pretrained model, which we call empirical model statistics. We further incorporate multistep methods and a predictor-corrector framework, and propose some techniques for improving sample quality at small numbers of function evaluations (NFE) or large guidance scales. Experiments show that DPM-Solver-v3 achieves consistently better or comparable performance in both unconditional and conditional sampling with both pixel-space and latent-space DPMs, especially in 5sim10 NFEs. We achieve FIDs of 12.21 (5 NFE), 2.51 (10 NFE) on unconditional CIFAR10, and MSE of 0.55 (5 NFE, 7.5 guidance scale) on Stable Diffusion, bringing a speed-up of 15\%sim30\% compared to previous state-of-the-art training-free methods. Code is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/DPM-Solver-v3.

In applications of diffusion models, controllable generation is of practical significance, but is also challenging. Current methods for controllable generation primarily focus on modifying the score function of diffusion models, while Mean Reverting (MR) Diffusion directly modifies the structure of the stochastic differential equation (SDE), making the incorporation of image conditions simpler and more natural. However, current training-free fast samplers are not directly applicable to MR Diffusion. And thus MR Diffusion requires hundreds of NFEs (number of function evaluations) to obtain high-quality samples. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm named MRS (MR Sampler) to reduce the sampling NFEs of MR Diffusion. We solve the reverse-time SDE and the probability flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE) associated with MR Diffusion, and derive semi-analytical solutions. The solutions consist of an analytical function and an integral parameterized by a neural network. Based on this solution, we can generate high-quality samples in fewer steps. Our approach does not require training and supports all mainstream parameterizations, including noise prediction, data prediction and velocity prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MR Sampler maintains high sampling quality with a speedup of 10 to 20 times across ten different image restoration tasks. Our algorithm accelerates the sampling procedure of MR Diffusion, making it more practical in controllable generation.

Offline optimization is an important task in numerous material engineering domains where online experimentation to collect data is too expensive and needs to be replaced by an in silico maximization of a surrogate of the black-box function. Although such a surrogate can be learned from offline data, its prediction might not be reliable outside the offline data regime, which happens when the surrogate has narrow prediction margin and is (therefore) sensitive to small perturbations of its parameterization. This raises the following questions: (1) how to regulate the sensitivity of a surrogate model; and (2) whether conditioning an offline optimizer with such less sensitive surrogate will lead to better optimization performance. To address these questions, we develop an optimizable sensitivity measurement for the surrogate model, which then inspires a sensitivity-informed regularizer that is applicable to a wide range of offline optimizers. This development is both orthogonal and synergistic to prior research on offline optimization, which is demonstrated in our extensive experiment benchmark.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

Robust and effective scaling of models from small to large width typically requires the precise adjustment of many algorithmic and architectural details, such as parameterization and optimizer choices. In this work, we propose a new perspective on parameterization by investigating a key assumption in prior work about the alignment between parameters and data and derive new theoretical results under weaker assumptions and a broader set of optimizers. Our extensive empirical investigation includes tens of thousands of models trained with all combinations of three optimizers, four parameterizations, several alignment assumptions, more than a dozen learning rates, and fourteen model sizes up to 26.8B parameters. We find that the best learning rate scaling prescription would often have been excluded by the assumptions in prior work. Our results show that all parameterizations, not just maximal update parameterization (muP), can achieve hyperparameter transfer; moreover, our novel per-layer learning rate prescription for standard parameterization outperforms muP. Finally, we demonstrate that an overlooked aspect of parameterization, the epsilon parameter in Adam, must be scaled correctly to avoid gradient underflow and propose Adam-atan2, a new numerically stable, scale-invariant version of Adam that eliminates the epsilon hyperparameter entirely.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

The current trend of scaling language models involves increasing both parameter count and training dataset size. Extrapolating this trend suggests that training dataset size may soon be limited by the amount of text data available on the internet. Motivated by this limit, we investigate scaling language models in data-constrained regimes. Specifically, we run a large set of experiments varying the extent of data repetition and compute budget, ranging up to 900 billion training tokens and 9 billion parameter models. We find that with constrained data for a fixed compute budget, training with up to 4 epochs of repeated data yields negligible changes to loss compared to having unique data. However, with more repetition, the value of adding compute eventually decays to zero. We propose and empirically validate a scaling law for compute optimality that accounts for the decreasing value of repeated tokens and excess parameters. Finally, we experiment with approaches mitigating data scarcity, including augmenting the training dataset with code data or removing commonly used filters. Models and datasets from our 400 training runs are publicly available at https://github.com/huggingface/datablations.

Large artificial neural networks have become a mainstay of language, vision, and audio processing and synthesis, yet their initializations and learning rates are often set in an unsophisticated fashion, due to the high cost of hyperparameter sweeps at scale. The mu-Parameterization (muP) offers a potential solution to this challenge, yielding scaling rules for model initialization and learning rates while reportedly enabling zero-shot hyperparameter transfer from small to large models. Despite its evident promise, the muP method is not yet widely adopted, perhaps due to higher implementation complexity, many variations, or complex theoretical background. This work investigates muP empirically, focusing on the ubiquitous transformer architecture, and aims to answer a simple question: does mu-Transfer yield optimal learning rates in practice? Studying models of up to 10B parameters and training budgets of up to 190B tokens, we find mu-Transfer works as intended for the majority of important cases, yet also identify a few cases where it may not.

Pretraining a neural network on a large dataset is becoming a cornerstone in machine learning that is within the reach of only a few communities with large-resources. We aim at an ambitious goal of democratizing pretraining. Towards that goal, we train and release a single neural network that can predict high quality ImageNet parameters of other neural networks. By using predicted parameters for initialization we are able to boost training of diverse ImageNet models available in PyTorch. When transferred to other datasets, models initialized with predicted parameters also converge faster and reach competitive final performance.

Post-training has emerged as a crucial paradigm for adapting large-scale pre-trained models to various tasks, whose effects are fully reflected by delta parameters (i.e., the disparity between post-trained and pre-trained parameters). While numerous studies have explored delta parameter properties via operations like pruning, quantization, low-rank approximation, and extrapolation, a unified framework for systematically examining these characteristics has been lacking. In this paper, we propose a novel perspective based on Riemann sum approximation of the loss function to elucidate delta parameter editing operations. Our analysis categorizes existing methods into three classes based on their post-editing performance: competitive, decreased, and improved, explaining how they are expressed by the Riemann sum approximation term and how they alter the model performance. Extensive experiments on both visual and language models, including ViT, LLaMA 3, Qwen 2, and Mistral, corroborate our theoretical findings. Furthermore, we introduce extensions to existing techniques like DARE and BitDelta, highlighting their limitations in leveraging the properties of delta parameters and reorganizing them into general expressions to enhance the applicability and effectiveness of delta parameter editing in post-trained models.

As language models scale up, it becomes increasingly expensive to verify research ideas because conclusions on small models do not trivially transfer to large ones. A possible solution is to establish a generic system that directly predicts some metrics for large models solely based on the results and hyperparameters from small models. Existing methods based on scaling laws require hyperparameter search on the largest models, which is impractical with limited resources. We address this issue by presenting our discoveries indicating that Maximal Update parametrization (Mup) enables accurate fitting of scaling laws for hyperparameters close to common loss basins, without any search. Thus, different models can be directly compared on large scales with loss prediction even before the training starts. We propose a new paradigm as a first step towards reliable academic research for any model scale without heavy computation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cofe-ai/Mu-scaling.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

We study recent research advances that improve large language models through efficient pre-training and scaling, and open datasets and tools. We combine these advances to introduce Cerebras-GPT, a family of open compute-optimal language models scaled from 111M to 13B parameters. We train Cerebras-GPT models on the Eleuther Pile dataset following DeepMind Chinchilla scaling rules for efficient pre-training (highest accuracy for a given compute budget). We characterize the predictable power-law scaling and compare Cerebras-GPT with other publicly-available models to show all Cerebras-GPT models have state-of-the-art training efficiency on both pre-training and downstream objectives. We describe our learnings including how Maximal Update Parameterization (muP) can further improve large model scaling, improving accuracy and hyperparameter predictability at scale. We release our pre-trained models and code, making this paper the first open and reproducible work comparing compute-optimal model scaling to models trained on fixed dataset sizes. Cerebras-GPT models are available on HuggingFace: https://huggingface.co/cerebras.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

A neural network with the widely-used ReLU activation has been shown to partition the sample space into many convex polytopes for prediction. However, the parameterized way a neural network and other machine learning models use to partition the space has imperfections, e.g., the compromised interpretability for complex models, the inflexibility in decision boundary construction due to the generic character of the model, and the risk of being trapped into shortcut solutions. In contrast, although the non-parameterized models can adorably avoid or downplay these issues, they are usually insufficiently powerful either due to over-simplification or the failure to accommodate the manifold structures of data. In this context, we first propose a new type of machine learning models referred to as Manifoldron that directly derives decision boundaries from data and partitions the space via manifold structure discovery. Then, we systematically analyze the key characteristics of the Manifoldron such as manifold characterization capability and its link to neural networks. The experimental results on 4 synthetic examples, 20 public benchmark datasets, and 1 real-world application demonstrate that the proposed Manifoldron performs competitively compared to the mainstream machine learning models. We have shared our code in https://github.com/wdayang/Manifoldron for free download and evaluation.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Time series has been left behind in the era of pre-training and transfer learning. While research in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision are enjoying progressively larger datasets to train massive models, the most popular time series datasets consist of only tens of thousands of time steps, limiting our ability to study the effectiveness of pre-training and scaling. Recent studies have also cast doubt on the need for expressive models and scale. To alleviate these issues, we introduce three large-scale time series forecasting datasets from the cloud operations (CloudOps) domain, the largest having billions of observations, enabling further study into pre-training and scaling of time series models. We build the empirical groundwork for studying pre-training and scaling of time series models and pave the way for future research by identifying a promising candidate architecture. We show that it is a strong zero-shot baseline and benefits from further scaling, both in model and dataset size. Accompanying these datasets and results is a suite of comprehensive benchmark results comparing classical and deep learning baselines to our pre-trained method - achieving a 27% reduction in error on the largest dataset. Code and datasets will be released.

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

This paper introduces a new parameterization of deep neural networks (both fully-connected and convolutional) with guaranteed ell^2 Lipschitz bounds, i.e. limited sensitivity to input perturbations. The Lipschitz guarantees are equivalent to the tightest-known bounds based on certification via a semidefinite program (SDP). We provide a ``direct'' parameterization, i.e., a smooth mapping from mathbb R^N onto the set of weights satisfying the SDP-based bound. Moreover, our parameterization is complete, i.e. a neural network satisfies the SDP bound if and only if it can be represented via our parameterization. This enables training using standard gradient methods, without any inner approximation or computationally intensive tasks (e.g. projections or barrier terms) for the SDP constraint. The new parameterization can equivalently be thought of as either a new layer type (the sandwich layer), or a novel parameterization of standard feedforward networks with parameter sharing between neighbouring layers. A comprehensive set of experiments on image classification shows that sandwich layers outperform previous approaches on both empirical and certified robust accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/acfr/LBDN.

Since compute grows much faster than web text available for language model pre-training, we ask how one should approach pre-training under fixed data and no compute constraints. We first show that existing data-constrained approaches of increasing epoch count and parameter count eventually overfit, and we significantly improve upon such recipes by properly tuning regularization, finding that the optimal weight decay is 30times larger than standard practice. Since our regularized recipe monotonically decreases loss following a simple power law in parameter count, we estimate its best possible performance via the asymptote of its scaling law rather than the performance at a fixed compute budget. We then identify that ensembling independently trained models achieves a significantly lower loss asymptote than the regularized recipe. Our best intervention combining epoching, regularization, parameter scaling, and ensemble scaling achieves an asymptote at 200M tokens using 5.17times less data than our baseline, and our data scaling laws predict that this improvement persists at higher token budgets. We find that our data efficiency gains can be realized at much smaller parameter counts as we can distill an ensemble into a student model that is 8times smaller and retains 83% of the ensembling benefit. Finally, our interventions designed for validation loss generalize to downstream benchmarks, achieving a 9% improvement for pre-training evals and a 17.5times data efficiency improvement over continued pre-training on math mid-training data. Our results show that simple algorithmic improvements can enable significantly more data-efficient pre-training in a compute-rich future.

In recent years, vision-language models have made significant strides, excelling in tasks like optical character recognition and geometric problem-solving. However, several critical issues remain: 1) Proprietary models often lack transparency about their architectures, while open-source models need more detailed ablations of their training strategies. 2) Pre-training data in open-source works is under-explored, with datasets added empirically, making the process cumbersome. 3) Fine-tuning often focuses on adding datasets, leading to diminishing returns. To address these issues, we propose the following contributions: 1) We trained a robust baseline model using the latest advancements in vision-language models, introducing effective improvements and conducting comprehensive ablation and validation for each technique. 2) Inspired by recent work on large language models, we filtered pre-training data using perplexity, selecting the lowest perplexity data for training. This approach allowed us to train on a curated 1M dataset, achieving competitive performance. 3) During visual instruction tuning, we used model soup on different datasets when adding more datasets yielded marginal improvements. These innovations resulted in a 9B parameter model that performs competitively with state-of-the-art models. Our strategies are efficient and lightweight, making them easily adoptable by the community.

Feature preprocessing continues to play a critical role when applying machine learning and statistical methods to tabular data. In this paper, we propose the use of the kernel density integral transformation as a feature preprocessing step. Our approach subsumes the two leading feature preprocessing methods as limiting cases: linear min-max scaling and quantile transformation. We demonstrate that, without hyperparameter tuning, the kernel density integral transformation can be used as a simple drop-in replacement for either method, offering protection from the weaknesses of each. Alternatively, with tuning of a single continuous hyperparameter, we frequently outperform both of these methods. Finally, we show that the kernel density transformation can be profitably applied to statistical data analysis, particularly in correlation analysis and univariate clustering.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

When training deep learning models, the performance depends largely on the selected hyperparameters. However, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is often one of the most expensive parts of model design. Classical HPO methods treat this as a black-box optimization problem. However, gray-box HPO methods, which incorporate more information about the setup, have emerged as a promising direction for more efficient optimization. For example, using intermediate loss evaluations to terminate bad selections. In this work, we propose an HPO method for neural networks using logged checkpoints of the trained weights to guide future hyperparameter selections. Our method, Forecasting Model Search (FMS), embeds weights into a Gaussian process deep kernel surrogate model, using a permutation-invariant graph metanetwork to be data-efficient with the logged network weights. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we open-source our code at https://github.com/NVlabs/forecasting-model-search.

Large models represent a groundbreaking advancement in multiple application fields, enabling remarkable achievements across various tasks. However, their unprecedented scale comes with significant computational costs. These models, often consisting of billions of parameters, require vast amounts of computational resources for execution. Especially, the expansive scale and computational demands pose considerable challenges when customizing them for particular downstream tasks, particularly over the hardware platforms constrained by computational capabilities. Parameter Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) provides a practical solution by efficiently adapt the large models over the various downstream tasks. In particular, PEFT refers to the process of adjusting the parameters of a pre-trained large models to adapt it to a specific task while minimizing the number of additional parameters introduced or computational resources required. This approach is particularly important when dealing with large language models with high parameter counts, as fine-tuning these models from scratch can be computationally expensive and resource-intensive, posing considerable challenges in the supporting system platform design. In this survey, we present comprehensive studies of various PEFT algorithms, examining their performance and computational overhead. Moreover, we provide an overview of applications developed using different PEFT algorithms and discuss common techniques employed to mitigate computation costs for PEFT. In addition to the algorithmic perspective, we overview various real-world system designs to investigate the implementation costs associated with different PEFT algorithms. This survey serves as an indispensable resource for researchers aiming to understand both the PEFT algorithm and its system implementation, offering detailed insights into recent advancements and practical applications.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Although pretrained language models can be fine-tuned to produce state-of-the-art results for a very wide range of language understanding tasks, the dynamics of this process are not well understood, especially in the low data regime. Why can we use relatively vanilla gradient descent algorithms (e.g., without strong regularization) to tune a model with hundreds of millions of parameters on datasets with only hundreds or thousands of labeled examples? In this paper, we argue that analyzing fine-tuning through the lens of intrinsic dimension provides us with empirical and theoretical intuitions to explain this remarkable phenomenon. We empirically show that common pre-trained models have a very low intrinsic dimension; in other words, there exists a low dimension reparameterization that is as effective for fine-tuning as the full parameter space. For example, by optimizing only 200 trainable parameters randomly projected back into the full space, we can tune a RoBERTa model to achieve 90\% of the full parameter performance levels on MRPC. Furthermore, we empirically show that pre-training implicitly minimizes intrinsic dimension and, perhaps surprisingly, larger models tend to have lower intrinsic dimension after a fixed number of pre-training updates, at least in part explaining their extreme effectiveness. Lastly, we connect intrinsic dimensionality with low dimensional task representations and compression based generalization bounds to provide intrinsic-dimension-based generalization bounds that are independent of the full parameter count.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

Training large-scale models under given resources requires careful design of parallelism strategies. In particular, the efficiency notion of critical batch size (CBS), concerning the compromise between time and compute, marks the threshold beyond which greater data parallelism leads to diminishing returns. To operationalize it, we propose a measure of CBS and pre-train a series of auto-regressive language models, ranging from 85 million to 1.2 billion parameters, on the C4 dataset. Through extensive hyper-parameter sweeps and careful control of factors such as batch size, momentum, and learning rate along with its scheduling, we systematically investigate the impact of scale on CBS. Then we fit scaling laws with respect to model and data sizes to decouple their effects. Overall, our results demonstrate that CBS scales primarily with data size rather than model size, a finding we justify theoretically through the analysis of infinite-width limits of neural networks and infinite-dimensional least squares regression. Of independent interest, we highlight the importance of common hyper-parameter choices and strategies for studying large-scale pre-training beyond fixed training durations.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Yes. SE data can have "smoother" boundaries between classes (compared to traditional AI data sets). To be more precise, the magnitude of the second derivative of the loss function found in SE data is typically much smaller. A new hyper-parameter optimizer, called SMOOTHIE, can exploit this idiosyncrasy of SE data. We compare SMOOTHIE and a state-of-the-art AI hyper-parameter optimizer on three tasks: (a) GitHub issue lifetime prediction (b) detecting static code warnings false alarm; (c) defect prediction. For completeness, we also show experiments on some standard AI datasets. SMOOTHIE runs faster and predicts better on the SE data--but ties on non-SE data with the AI tool. Hence we conclude that SE data can be different to other kinds of data; and those differences mean that we should use different kinds of algorithms for our data. To support open science and other researchers working in this area, all our scripts and datasets are available on-line at https://github.com/yrahul3910/smoothness-hpo/.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

The performance of an algorithm often critically depends on its parameter configuration. While a variety of automated algorithm configuration methods have been proposed to relieve users from the tedious and error-prone task of manually tuning parameters, there is still a lot of untapped potential as the learned configuration is static, i.e., parameter settings remain fixed throughout the run. However, it has been shown that some algorithm parameters are best adjusted dynamically during execution, e.g., to adapt to the current part of the optimization landscape. Thus far, this is most commonly achieved through hand-crafted heuristics. A promising recent alternative is to automatically learn such dynamic parameter adaptation policies from data. In this article, we give the first comprehensive account of this new field of automated dynamic algorithm configuration (DAC), present a series of recent advances, and provide a solid foundation for future research in this field. Specifically, we (i) situate DAC in the broader historical context of AI research; (ii) formalize DAC as a computational problem; (iii) identify the methods used in prior-art to tackle this problem; (iv) conduct empirical case studies for using DAC in evolutionary optimization, AI planning, and machine learning.

This paper introduces a public dataset of 1.4 million procedurally-generated bicycle designs represented parametrically, as JSON files, and as rasterized images. The dataset is created through the use of a rendering engine which harnesses the BikeCAD software to generate vector graphics from parametric designs. This rendering engine is discussed in the paper and also released publicly alongside the dataset. Though this dataset has numerous applications, a principal motivation is the need to train cross-modal predictive models between parametric and image-based design representations. For example, we demonstrate that a predictive model can be trained to accurately estimate Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) embeddings from a parametric representation directly. This allows similarity relations to be established between parametric bicycle designs and text strings or reference images. Trained predictive models are also made public. The dataset joins the BIKED dataset family which includes thousands of mixed-representation human-designed bicycle models and several datasets quantifying design performance. The code and dataset can be found at: https://github.com/Lyleregenwetter/BIKED_multimodal/tree/main

This work focuses on leveraging and selecting from vast, unlabeled, open data to pre-fine-tune a pre-trained language model. The goal is to minimize the need for costly domain-specific data for subsequent fine-tuning while achieving desired performance levels. While many data selection algorithms have been designed for small-scale applications, rendering them unsuitable for our context, some emerging methods do cater to language data scales. However, they often prioritize data that aligns with the target distribution. While this strategy may be effective when training a model from scratch, it can yield limited results when the model has already been pre-trained on a different distribution. Differing from prior work, our key idea is to select data that nudges the pre-training distribution closer to the target distribution. We show the optimality of this approach for fine-tuning tasks under certain conditions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology across a diverse array of tasks (NLU, NLG, zero-shot) with models up to 2.7B, showing that it consistently surpasses other selection methods. Moreover, our proposed method is significantly faster than existing techniques, scaling to millions of samples within a single GPU hour. Our code is open-sourced (Code repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DV4LLM-D761/ ). While fine-tuning offers significant potential for enhancing performance across diverse tasks, its associated costs often limit its widespread adoption; with this work, we hope to lay the groundwork for cost-effective fine-tuning, making its benefits more accessible.

In this work, we propose a communication-efficient parameterization, FedPara, for federated learning (FL) to overcome the burdens on frequent model uploads and downloads. Our method re-parameterizes weight parameters of layers using low-rank weights followed by the Hadamard product. Compared to the conventional low-rank parameterization, our FedPara method is not restricted to low-rank constraints, and thereby it has a far larger capacity. This property enables to achieve comparable performance while requiring 3 to 10 times lower communication costs than the model with the original layers, which is not achievable by the traditional low-rank methods. The efficiency of our method can be further improved by combining with other efficient FL optimizers. In addition, we extend our method to a personalized FL application, pFedPara, which separates parameters into global and local ones. We show that pFedPara outperforms competing personalized FL methods with more than three times fewer parameters.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Recent years have seen a growing interest and adoption of LLMs, with muTransfer becoming a key technique for tuning hyperparameters in large-scale training. Meanwhile, Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has emerged as a leading architecture in extremely large models. However, the intersection of these two advancements has remained unexplored. In this work, we derive a mu-Parameterization (muP) for MoE, providing theoretical guarantees for feature learning across model widths in both the router and experts. We empirically validate our parameterization and further investigate how scaling the number of experts and granularity affects the optimal learning rate.

The problem of Novel Class Discovery (NCD) consists in extracting knowledge from a labeled set of known classes to accurately partition an unlabeled set of novel classes. While NCD has recently received a lot of attention from the community, it is often solved on computer vision problems and under unrealistic conditions. In particular, the number of novel classes is usually assumed to be known in advance, and their labels are sometimes used to tune hyperparameters. Methods that rely on these assumptions are not applicable in real-world scenarios. In this work, we focus on solving NCD in tabular data when no prior knowledge of the novel classes is available. To this end, we propose to tune the hyperparameters of NCD methods by adapting the k-fold cross-validation process and hiding some of the known classes in each fold. Since we have found that methods with too many hyperparameters are likely to overfit these hidden classes, we define a simple deep NCD model. This method is composed of only the essential elements necessary for the NCD problem and performs impressively well under realistic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the latent space of this method can be used to reliably estimate the number of novel classes. Additionally, we adapt two unsupervised clustering algorithms (k-means and Spectral Clustering) to leverage the knowledge of the known classes. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 tabular datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and hyperparameter tuning process, and show that the NCD problem can be solved without relying on knowledge from the novel classes.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

This paper reveals the phenomenon of parameter heterogeneity in large language models (LLMs). We find that a small subset of ``cherry'' parameters exhibit a disproportionately large influence on model performance, while the vast majority of parameters have minimal impact. This heterogeneity is found to be prevalent across different model families, scales, and types. Motivated by this observation, we propose CherryQ, a novel quantization method that unifies the optimization of mixed-precision parameters. CherryQ identifies and preserves the critical cherry parameters in high precision while aggressively quantizing the remaining parameters to low precision. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of CherryQ. CherryQ outperforms existing quantization approaches in terms of perplexity and downstream task performance. Notably, our 3-bit quantized Vicuna-1.5 exhibits competitive performance compared to their 16-bit counterparts. These findings highlight the potential of CherryQ for enabling efficient deployment of LLMs by taking advantage of parameter heterogeneity.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

When selecting data for training large-scale models, standard practice is to filter for examples that match human notions of data quality. Such filtering yields qualitatively clean datapoints that intuitively should improve model behavior. However, in practice the opposite can often happen: we find that selecting according to similarity with "high quality" data sources may not increase (and can even hurt) performance compared to randomly selecting data. To develop better methods for selecting data, we start by framing dataset selection as an optimization problem that we can directly solve for: given target tasks, a learning algorithm, and candidate data, select the subset that maximizes model performance. This framework thus avoids handpicked notions of data quality, and instead models explicitly how the learning process uses train datapoints to predict on the target tasks. Our resulting method greatly improves language model (LM) performance on both pre-specified tasks and previously unseen tasks. Specifically, choosing target tasks representative of standard LM problems and evaluating on diverse held-out benchmarks, our selected datasets provide a 2x compute multiplier over baseline methods.

There is growing evidence that pretraining on high quality, carefully thought-out tokens such as code or mathematics plays an important role in improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. For example, Minerva, a PaLM model finetuned on billions of tokens of mathematical documents from arXiv and the web, reported dramatically improved performance on problems that require quantitative reasoning. However, because all known open source web datasets employ preprocessing that does not faithfully preserve mathematical notation, the benefits of large scale training on quantitive web documents are unavailable to the research community. We introduce OpenWebMath, an open dataset inspired by these works containing 14.7B tokens of mathematical webpages from Common Crawl. We describe in detail our method for extracting text and LaTeX content and removing boilerplate from HTML documents, as well as our methods for quality filtering and deduplication. Additionally, we run small-scale experiments by training 1.4B parameter language models on OpenWebMath, showing that models trained on 14.7B tokens of our dataset surpass the performance of models trained on over 20x the amount of general language data. We hope that our dataset, openly released on the Hugging Face Hub, will help spur advances in the reasoning abilities of large language models.

Scaling laws with respect to the amount of training data and the number of parameters allow us to predict the cost-benefit trade-offs of pretraining language models (LMs) in different configurations. In this paper, we consider another dimension of scaling: the amount of data available at inference time. Specifically, we find that increasing the size of the datastore used by a retrieval-based LM monotonically improves language modeling and several downstream tasks without obvious saturation, such that a smaller model augmented with a large datastore outperforms a larger LM-only model on knowledge-intensive tasks. By plotting compute-optimal scaling curves with varied datastore, model, and pretraining data sizes, we show that using larger datastores can significantly improve model performance for the same training compute budget. We carry out our study by constructing a 1.4 trillion-token datastore named MassiveDS, which is the largest and the most diverse open-sourced datastore for retrieval-based LMs to date, and designing an efficient pipeline for studying datastore scaling in a computationally accessible manner. Finally, we analyze the effect of improving the retriever, datastore quality filtering, and other design choices on our observed scaling trends. Overall, our results show that datastore size should be considered as an integral part of LM efficiency and performance trade-offs. To facilitate future research, we open-source our datastore and code at https://github.com/RulinShao/retrieval-scaling.

The emergence of large-scale multi-modal generative models has drastically advanced artificial intelligence, introducing unprecedented levels of performance and functionality. However, optimizing these models remains challenging due to historically isolated paths of model-centric and data-centric developments, leading to suboptimal outcomes and inefficient resource utilization. In response, we present a novel sandbox suite tailored for integrated data-model co-development. This sandbox provides a comprehensive experimental platform, enabling rapid iteration and insight-driven refinement of both data and models. Our proposed "Probe-Analyze-Refine" workflow, validated through applications on state-of-the-art LLaVA-like and DiT based models, yields significant performance boosts, such as topping the VBench leaderboard. We also uncover fruitful insights gleaned from exhaustive benchmarks, shedding light on the critical interplay between data quality, diversity, and model behavior. With the hope of fostering deeper understanding and future progress in multi-modal data and generative modeling, our codes, datasets, and models are maintained and accessible at https://github.com/modelscope/data-juicer/blob/main/docs/Sandbox.md.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are trained for thousands of GPU hours on carefully curated web datasets. In recent times, data curation has gained prominence with several works developing strategies to retain 'high-quality' subsets of 'raw' scraped data. For instance, the LAION public dataset retained only 10% of the total crawled data. However, these strategies are typically developed agnostic of the available compute for training. In this paper, we first demonstrate that making filtering decisions independent of training compute is often suboptimal: the limited high-quality data rapidly loses its utility when repeated, eventually requiring the inclusion of 'unseen' but 'lower-quality' data. To address this quality-quantity tradeoff (QQT), we introduce neural scaling laws that account for the non-homogeneous nature of web data, an angle ignored in existing literature. Our scaling laws (i) characterize the differing 'utility' of various quality subsets of web data; (ii) account for how utility diminishes for a data point at its 'nth' repetition; and (iii) formulate the mutual interaction of various data pools when combined, enabling the estimation of model performance on a combination of multiple data pools without ever jointly training on them. Our key message is that data curation cannot be agnostic of the total compute that a model will be trained for. Our scaling laws allow us to curate the best possible pool for achieving top performance on Datacomp at various compute budgets, carving out a pareto-frontier for data curation. Code is available at https://github.com/locuslab/scaling_laws_data_filtering.

We study compute efficiency of LLM training when using different parameterizations, i.e., rules for adjusting model and optimizer hyperparameters (HPs) as model size changes. Some parameterizations fail to transfer optimal base HPs (such as learning rate) across changes in model depth, requiring practitioners to either re-tune these HPs as they scale up (expensive), or accept sub-optimal training when re-tuning is prohibitive. Even when they achieve HP transfer, we develop theory to show parameterizations may still exist in the lazy learning regime where layers learn only features close to their linearization, preventing effective use of depth and nonlinearity. Finally, we identify and adopt the parameterization we call CompleteP that achieves both depth-wise HP transfer and non-lazy learning in all layers. CompleteP enables a wider range of model width/depth ratios to remain compute-efficient, unlocking shapes better suited for different hardware settings and operational contexts. Moreover, CompleteP enables 12-34% compute efficiency improvements over the prior state-of-the-art.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

The advent of universal time series forecasting models has revolutionized zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains, yet the critical role of data diversity in training these models remains underexplored. Existing large-scale time series datasets often suffer from inherent biases and imbalanced distributions, leading to suboptimal model performance and generalization. To address this gap, we introduce BLAST, a novel pre-training corpus designed to enhance data diversity through a balanced sampling strategy. First, BLAST incorporates 321 billion observations from publicly available datasets and employs a comprehensive suite of statistical metrics to characterize time series patterns. Then, to facilitate pattern-oriented sampling, the data is implicitly clustered using grid-based partitioning. Furthermore, by integrating grid sampling and grid mixup techniques, BLAST ensures a balanced and representative coverage of diverse patterns. Experimental results demonstrate that models pre-trained on BLAST achieve state-of-the-art performance with a fraction of the computational resources and training tokens required by existing methods. Our findings highlight the pivotal role of data diversity in improving both training efficiency and model performance for the universal forecasting task.

With the continuous and vast increase in the amount of data in our digital world, it has been acknowledged that the number of knowledgeable data scientists can not scale to address these challenges. Thus, there was a crucial need for automating the process of building good machine learning models. In the last few years, several techniques and frameworks have been introduced to tackle the challenge of automating the process of Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyper-parameter tuning (CASH) in the machine learning domain. The main aim of these techniques is to reduce the role of the human in the loop and fill the gap for non-expert machine learning users by playing the role of the domain expert. In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey for the state-of-the-art efforts in tackling the CASH problem. In addition, we highlight the research work of automating the other steps of the full complex machine learning pipeline (AutoML) from data understanding till model deployment. Furthermore, we provide comprehensive coverage for the various tools and frameworks that have been introduced in this domain. Finally, we discuss some of the research directions and open challenges that need to be addressed in order to achieve the vision and goals of the AutoML process.

The impressive capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse tasks are now well-established, yet their effective deployment necessitates careful hyperparameter optimization. Through extensive empirical studies involving grid searches across diverse configurations, we discover universal scaling laws governing these hyperparameters: optimal learning rate follows a power-law relationship with both model parameters and data sizes, while optimal batch size scales primarily with data sizes. Our analysis reveals a convex optimization landscape for hyperparameters under fixed models and data size conditions. This convexity implies an optimal hyperparameter plateau. We contribute a universal, plug-and-play optimal hyperparameter tool for the community. Its estimated values on the test set are merely 0.07\% away from the globally optimal LLM performance found via an exhaustive search. These laws demonstrate remarkable robustness across variations in model sparsity, training data distribution, and model shape. To our best known, this is the first work that unifies different model shapes and structures, such as Mixture-of-Experts models and dense transformers, as well as establishes optimal hyperparameter scaling laws across diverse data distributions. This exhaustive optimization process demands substantial computational resources, utilizing nearly one million NVIDIA H800 GPU hours to train 3,700 LLMs of varying sizes and hyperparameters from scratch and consuming approximately 100 trillion tokens in total. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we will progressively release all loss measurements and model checkpoints through our designated repository https://step-law.github.io/

Pretraining data of large language models composes multiple domains (e.g., web texts, academic papers, codes), whose mixture proportions crucially impact the competence of outcome models. While existing endeavors rely on heuristics or qualitative strategies to tune the proportions, we discover the quantitative predictability of model performance regarding the mixture proportions in function forms, which we refer to as the data mixing laws. Fitting such functions on sample mixtures unveils model performance on unseen mixtures before actual runs, thus guiding the selection of an ideal data mixture. Furthermore, we propose nested use of the scaling laws of training steps, model sizes, and our data mixing law to enable predicting the performance of large models trained on massive data under various mixtures with only small-scale training. Moreover, experimental results verify that our method effectively optimizes the training mixture of a 1B model trained for 100B tokens in RedPajama, reaching a performance comparable to the one trained for 48% more steps on the default mixture. Extending the application of data mixing laws to continual training accurately predicts the critical mixture proportion that avoids catastrophic forgetting and outlooks the potential for dynamic data schedules

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

Fine-tuning large pre-trained language models on downstream tasks has become the de-facto learning paradigm in NLP. However, conventional approaches fine-tune all the parameters of the pre-trained model, which becomes prohibitive as the model size and the number of tasks grow. Recent work has proposed a variety of parameter-efficient transfer learning methods that only fine-tune a small number of (extra) parameters to attain strong performance. While effective, the critical ingredients for success and the connections among the various methods are poorly understood. In this paper, we break down the design of state-of-the-art parameter-efficient transfer learning methods and present a unified framework that establishes connections between them. Specifically, we re-frame them as modifications to specific hidden states in pre-trained models, and define a set of design dimensions along which different methods vary, such as the function to compute the modification and the position to apply the modification. Through comprehensive empirical studies across machine translation, text summarization, language understanding, and text classification benchmarks, we utilize the unified view to identify important design choices in previous methods. Furthermore, our unified framework enables the transfer of design elements across different approaches, and as a result we are able to instantiate new parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods that tune less parameters than previous methods while being more effective, achieving comparable results to fine-tuning all parameters on all four tasks.

While tabular classification has traditionally relied on from-scratch training, a recent breakthrough called prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) challenges this approach. Similar to large language models, PFNs make use of pretraining and in-context learning to achieve strong performance on new tasks in a single forward pass. However, current PFNs have limitations that prohibit their widespread adoption. Notably, TabPFN achieves very strong performance on small tabular datasets but is not designed to make predictions for datasets of size larger than 1000. In this work, we overcome these limitations and substantially improve the performance of PFNs via context optimization. We introduce TuneTables, a parameter-efficient fine-tuning strategy for PFNs that compresses large datasets into a smaller learned context. We conduct extensive experiments on 19 algorithms over 98 datasets and find that TuneTables achieves the best performance on average, outperforming boosted trees such as CatBoost, while optimizing fewer than 5% of TabPFN's parameters. Furthermore, we show that TuneTables can be used as an interpretability tool and can even be used to mitigate biases by optimizing a fairness objective. We open-source our code and raw results at https://github.com/penfever/TuneTables.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success as foundational models, benefiting various downstream applications through fine-tuning. Recent studies on loss scaling have demonstrated the superior performance of larger LLMs compared to their smaller counterparts. Nevertheless, training LLMs with billions of parameters poses significant challenges and requires considerable computational resources. For example, training a one trillion parameter GPT-style model on 20 trillion tokens requires a staggering 120 million exaflops of computation. This research explores efficient distributed training strategies to extract this computation from Frontier, the world's first exascale supercomputer dedicated to open science. We enable and investigate various model and data parallel training techniques, such as tensor parallelism, pipeline parallelism, and sharded data parallelism, to facilitate training a trillion-parameter model on Frontier. We empirically assess these techniques and their associated parameters to determine their impact on memory footprint, communication latency, and GPU's computational efficiency. We analyze the complex interplay among these techniques and find a strategy to combine them to achieve high throughput through hyperparameter tuning. We have identified efficient strategies for training large LLMs of varying sizes through empirical analysis and hyperparameter tuning. For 22 Billion, 175 Billion, and 1 Trillion parameters, we achieved GPU throughputs of 38.38%, 36.14%, and 31.96%, respectively. For the training of the 175 Billion parameter model and the 1 Trillion parameter model, we achieved 100% weak scaling efficiency on 1024 and 3072 MI250X GPUs, respectively. We also achieved strong scaling efficiencies of 89% and 87% for these two models.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update the full model, increasing memory and compute costs. We propose PETSA, a parameter-efficient method that adapts forecasters at test time by only updating small calibration modules on the input and output. PETSA uses low-rank adapters and dynamic gating to adjust representations without retraining. To maintain accuracy despite limited adaptation capacity, we introduce a specialized loss combining three components: (1) a robust term, (2) a frequency-domain term to preserve periodicity, and (3) a patch-wise structural term for structural alignment. PETSA improves the adaptability of various forecasting backbones while requiring fewer parameters than baselines. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that PETSA achieves competitive or better performance across all horizons. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BorealisAI/PETSA

Detailed detector simulation is the major consumer of CPU resources at LHCb, having used more than 90% of the total computing budget during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. As data is collected by the upgraded LHCb detector during Run 3 of the LHC, larger requests for simulated data samples are necessary, and will far exceed the pledged resources of the experiment, even with existing fast simulation options. An evolution of technologies and techniques to produce simulated samples is mandatory to meet the upcoming needs of analysis to interpret signal versus background and measure efficiencies. In this context, we propose Lamarr, a Gaudi-based framework designed to offer the fastest solution for the simulation of the LHCb detector. Lamarr consists of a pipeline of modules parameterizing both the detector response and the reconstruction algorithms of the LHCb experiment. Most of the parameterizations are made of Deep Generative Models and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees trained on simulated samples or alternatively, where possible, on real data. Embedding Lamarr in the general LHCb Gauss Simulation framework allows combining its execution with any of the available generators in a seamless way. Lamarr has been validated by comparing key reconstructed quantities with Detailed Simulation. Good agreement of the simulated distributions is obtained with two-order-of-magnitude speed-up of the simulation phase.

Language model pretraining involves training on extensive corpora, where data quality plays a pivotal role. In this work, we aim to directly estimate the contribution of data during pretraining and select pretraining data in an efficient manner. Specifically, we draw inspiration from recent findings showing that compression efficiency (i.e., the normalized loss) of diverse models on certain text correlates strongly with their downstream performance, when the text domain aligns with the downstream benchmark (Huang et al., 2024). Building on this observation, we hypothesize that data on which model losses are predictive of downstream abilities also contribute effectively to learning. To leverage this insight, we introduce data selection based on data's Predictive strength (Preselect), a lightweight and efficient data selection method that requires training and deploying only a fastText-based scorer. Through comprehensive experiments with 1B and 3B parameter models, we demonstrate that models trained on 30B tokens selected with PreSelect surpasses the performance of a vanilla baseline trained on 300B tokens, achieving a 10x reduction in compute requirements. Furthermore, PreSelect significantly outperforms other competitive data selection baselines, such as DCLM and FineWeb-Edu on a scale of 3B models trained on 100B tokens. We open-source our trained data selection scorer along with the curated datasets at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/PreSelect.

Low precision training and inference affect both the quality and cost of language models, but current scaling laws do not account for this. In this work, we devise "precision-aware" scaling laws for both training and inference. We propose that training in lower precision reduces the model's "effective parameter count," allowing us to predict the additional loss incurred from training in low precision and post-train quantization. For inference, we find that the degradation introduced by post-training quantization increases as models are trained on more data, eventually making additional pretraining data actively harmful. For training, our scaling laws allow us to predict the loss of a model with different parts in different precisions, and suggest that training larger models in lower precision may be compute optimal. We unify the scaling laws for post and pretraining quantization to arrive at a single functional form that predicts degradation from training and inference in varied precisions. We fit on over 465 pretraining runs and validate our predictions on model sizes up to 1.7B parameters trained on up to 26B tokens.

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on trial and error, which becomes impractical for large-scale pretraining. We propose a systematic method to determine the optimal data mixture for any target domain using scaling laws. Our approach accurately predicts the loss of a model of size N trained with D tokens and a specific domain weight vector h. We validate the universality of these scaling laws by demonstrating their predictive power in three distinct and large-scale settings: large language model (LLM), native multimodal model (NMM), and large vision models (LVM) pretraining. We further show that these scaling laws can extrapolate to new data mixtures and across scales: their parameters can be accurately estimated using a few small-scale training runs, and used to estimate the performance at larger scales and unseen domain weights. The scaling laws allow to derive the optimal domain weights for any target domain under a given training budget (N,D), providing a principled alternative to costly trial-and-error methods.

When considering a model architecture, there are several ways to reduce its memory footprint. Historically, popular approaches included selecting smaller architectures and creating sparse networks through pruning. More recently, randomized parameter-sharing (RPS) methods have gained traction for model compression at start of training. In this paper, we comprehensively assess the trade-off between memory and accuracy across RPS, pruning techniques, and building smaller models. Our findings demonstrate that RPS, which is both data and model-agnostic, consistently outperforms/matches smaller models and all moderately informed pruning strategies, such as MAG, SNIP, SYNFLOW, and GRASP, across the entire compression range. This advantage becomes particularly pronounced in higher compression scenarios. Notably, even when compared to highly informed pruning techniques like Lottery Ticket Rewinding (LTR), RPS exhibits superior performance in high compression settings. This points out inherent capacity advantage that RPS enjoys over sparse models. Theoretically, we establish RPS as a superior technique in terms of memory-efficient representation when compared to pruning for linear models. This paper argues in favor of paradigm shift towards RPS based models. During our rigorous evaluation of RPS, we identified issues in the state-of-the-art RPS technique ROAST, specifically regarding stability (ROAST's sensitivity to initialization hyperparameters, often leading to divergence) and Pareto-continuity (ROAST's inability to recover the accuracy of the original model at zero compression). We provably address both of these issues. We refer to the modified RPS, which incorporates our improvements, as STABLE-RPS.

Instruction tuning is a burgeoning method to elicit the general intelligence of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the creation of instruction data is still largely heuristic, leading to significant variation in quality and distribution across existing datasets. Experimental conclusions drawn from these datasets are also inconsistent, with some studies emphasizing the importance of scaling instruction numbers, while others argue that a limited number of samples suffice. To better understand data construction guidelines, we deepen our focus from the overall model performance to the growth of each underlying ability, such as creative writing, code generation, and logical reasoning. We systematically investigate the effects of data volume, parameter size, and data construction methods on the development of various abilities, using hundreds of model checkpoints (7b to 33b) fully instruction-tuned on a new collection of over 40k human-curated instruction data. This proposed dataset is stringently quality-controlled and categorized into ten distinct LLM abilities. Our study reveals three primary findings: (i) Despite data volume and parameter scale directly impacting models' overall performance, some abilities are more responsive to their increases and can be effectively trained using limited data, while some are highly resistant to these changes. (ii) Human-curated data strongly outperforms synthetic data from GPT-4 in efficiency and can constantly enhance model performance with volume increases, but is unachievable with synthetic data. (iii) Instruction data brings powerful cross-ability generalization, with evaluation results on out-of-domain data mirroring the first two observations. Furthermore, we demonstrate how these findings can guide more efficient data constructions, leading to practical performance improvements on public benchmarks.

We introduce Toto, a time series forecasting foundation model with 151 million parameters. Toto uses a modern decoder-only architecture coupled with architectural innovations designed to account for specific challenges found in multivariate observability time series data. Toto's pre-training corpus is a mixture of observability data, open datasets, and synthetic data, and is 4-10times larger than those of leading time series foundation models. Additionally, we introduce BOOM, a large-scale benchmark consisting of 350 million observations across 2,807 real-world time series. For both Toto and BOOM, we source observability data exclusively from Datadog's own telemetry and internal observability metrics. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that Toto achieves state-of-the-art performance on both BOOM and on established general purpose time series forecasting benchmarks. Toto's model weights, inference code, and evaluation scripts, as well as BOOM's data and evaluation code, are all available as open source under the Apache 2.0 License available at https://huggingface.co/Datadog/Toto-Open-Base-1.0 and https://github.com/DataDog/toto.

Pre-training and fine-tuning have achieved significant advances in the information retrieval (IR). A typical approach is to fine-tune all the parameters of large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) on downstream tasks. As the model size and the number of tasks increase greatly, such approach becomes less feasible and prohibitively expensive. Recently, a variety of parameter-efficient tuning methods have been proposed in natural language processing (NLP) that only fine-tune a small number of parameters while still attaining strong performance. Yet there has been little effort to explore parameter-efficient tuning for IR. In this work, we first conduct a comprehensive study of existing parameter-efficient tuning methods at both the retrieval and re-ranking stages. Unlike the promising results in NLP, we find that these methods cannot achieve comparable performance to full fine-tuning at both stages when updating less than 1\% of the original model parameters. More importantly, we find that the existing methods are just parameter-efficient, but not learning-efficient as they suffer from unstable training and slow convergence. To analyze the underlying reason, we conduct a theoretical analysis and show that the separation of the inserted trainable modules makes the optimization difficult. To alleviate this issue, we propose to inject additional modules alongside the PTM to make the original scattered modules connected. In this way, all the trainable modules can form a pathway to smooth the loss surface and thus help stabilize the training process. Experiments at both retrieval and re-ranking stages show that our method outperforms existing parameter-efficient methods significantly, and achieves comparable or even better performance over full fine-tuning.

Finding the optimal learning rate for language model pretraining is a challenging task. This is not only because there is a complicated correlation between learning rate, batch size, number of training tokens, model size, and other hyperparameters but also because it is prohibitively expensive to perform a hyperparameter search for large language models with Billions or Trillions of parameters. Recent studies propose using small proxy models and small corpus to perform hyperparameter searches and transposing the optimal parameters to large models and large corpus. While the zero-shot transferability is theoretically and empirically proven for model size related hyperparameters, like depth and width, the zero-shot transfer from small corpus to large corpus is underexplored. In this paper, we study the correlation between optimal learning rate, batch size, and number of training tokens for the recently proposed WSD scheduler. After thousands of small experiments, we found a power-law relationship between variables and demonstrated its transferability across model sizes. Based on the observation, we propose a new learning rate scheduler, Power scheduler, that is agnostic about the number of training tokens and batch size. The experiment shows that combining the Power scheduler with Maximum Update Parameterization (muP) can consistently achieve impressive performance with one set of hyperparameters regardless of the number of training tokens, batch size, model size, and even model architecture. Our 3B dense and MoE models trained with the Power scheduler achieve comparable performance as state-of-the-art small language models. We open-source these pretrained models at https://ibm.biz/BdKhLa.

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

Vector embeddings have been tasked with an ever-increasing set of retrieval tasks over the years, with a nascent rise in using them for reasoning, instruction-following, coding, and more. These new benchmarks push embeddings to work for any query and any notion of relevance that could be given. While prior works have pointed out theoretical limitations of vector embeddings, there is a common assumption that these difficulties are exclusively due to unrealistic queries, and those that are not can be overcome with better training data and larger models. In this work, we demonstrate that we may encounter these theoretical limitations in realistic settings with extremely simple queries. We connect known results in learning theory, showing that the number of top-k subsets of documents capable of being returned as the result of some query is limited by the dimension of the embedding. We empirically show that this holds true even if we restrict to k=2, and directly optimize on the test set with free parameterized embeddings. We then create a realistic dataset called LIMIT that stress tests models based on these theoretical results, and observe that even state-of-the-art models fail on this dataset despite the simple nature of the task. Our work shows the limits of embedding models under the existing single vector paradigm and calls for future research to develop methods that can resolve this fundamental limitation.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

While fine-tuning pretrained models has become common practice, these models often underperform outside their specific domains. Recently developed model merging techniques enable the direct integration of multiple models, each fine-tuned for distinct tasks, into a single model. This strategy promotes multitasking capabilities without requiring retraining on the original datasets. However, existing methods fall short in addressing potential conflicts and complex correlations between tasks, especially in parameter-level adjustments, posing a challenge in effectively balancing parameter competition across various tasks. This paper introduces an innovative technique named PCB-Merging (Parameter Competition Balancing), a lightweight and training-free technique that adjusts the coefficients of each parameter for effective model merging. PCB-Merging employs intra-balancing to gauge parameter significance within individual tasks and inter-balancing to assess parameter similarities across different tasks. Parameters with low importance scores are dropped, and the remaining ones are rescaled to form the final merged model. We assessed our approach in diverse merging scenarios, including cross-task, cross-domain, and cross-training configurations, as well as out-of-domain generalization. The experimental results reveal that our approach achieves substantial performance enhancements across multiple modalities, domains, model sizes, number of tasks, fine-tuning forms, and large language models, outperforming existing model merging methods. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/duguodong7/pcb-merging.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Due to the high computational demands executing a rigorous comparison between hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods is often cumbersome. The goal of this paper is to facilitate a better empirical evaluation of HPO methods by providing benchmarks that are cheap to evaluate, but still represent realistic use cases. We believe these benchmarks provide an easy and efficient way to conduct reproducible experiments for neural hyperparameter search. Our benchmarks consist of a large grid of configurations of a feed forward neural network on four different regression datasets including architectural hyperparameters and hyperparameters concerning the training pipeline. Based on this data, we performed an in-depth analysis to gain a better understanding of the properties of the optimization problem, as well as of the importance of different types of hyperparameters. Second, we exhaustively compared various different state-of-the-art methods from the hyperparameter optimization literature on these benchmarks in terms of performance and robustness.

One of the main challenges in optimal scaling of large language models (LLMs) is the prohibitive cost of hyperparameter tuning, particularly learning rate eta and batch size B. While techniques like muP (Yang et al., 2022) provide scaling rules for optimal eta transfer in the infinite model size limit, the optimal scaling behavior in the infinite data size limit remains unknown. We fill in this gap by observing for the first time an intricate dependence of optimal eta scaling on the pretraining token budget T, B and its relation to the critical batch size B_crit, which we measure to evolve as B_crit propto T. Furthermore, we show that the optimal batch size is positively correlated with B_crit: keeping it fixed becomes suboptimal over time even if learning rate is scaled optimally. Surprisingly, our results demonstrate that the observed optimal eta and B dynamics are preserved with muP model scaling, challenging the conventional view of B_crit dependence solely on loss value. Complementing optimality, we examine the sensitivity of loss to changes in learning rate, where we find the sensitivity to decrease with increase of T and to remain constant with muP model scaling. We hope our results make the first step towards a unified picture of the joint optimal data and model scaling.

We aim to select data subsets for the fine-tuning of large language models to more effectively follow instructions. Prior work has emphasized the importance of diversity in dataset curation but relied on heuristics such as the number of tasks. In this paper, we use determinantal point processes to capture the diversity and quality of instruction tuning datasets for subset selection. We propose to measure dataset diversity with log determinant distance that is the distance between the dataset of interest and a maximally diverse reference dataset. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed diversity measure in the normalized weight gradient space is correlated with downstream instruction-following performance. Consequently, it can be used to inform when data selection is the most helpful and to analyze dataset curation strategies. We demonstrate the utility of our approach on various instruction tuning datasets.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

Adapting pre-trained foundation models for various downstream tasks has been prevalent in artificial intelligence. Due to the vast number of tasks and high costs, adjusting all parameters becomes unfeasible. To mitigate this, several fine-tuning techniques have been developed to update the pre-trained model weights in a more resource-efficient manner, such as through low-rank adjustments. Yet, almost all of these methods focus on linear weights, neglecting the intricacies of parameter spaces in higher dimensions like 4D. Alternatively, some methods can be adapted for high-dimensional parameter space by compressing changes in the original space into two dimensions and then employing low-rank matrix decomposition. However, these approaches destructs the structural integrity of the involved high-dimensional spaces. To tackle the diversity of dimensional spaces across different foundation models and provide a more precise representation of the changes within these spaces, this paper introduces a generalized parameter-efficient fine-tuning framework, FLoRA, designed for various dimensional parameter space. Specifically, utilizing Tucker decomposition, FLoRA asserts that changes in each dimensional parameter space are based on a low-rank core space which maintains the consistent topological structure with the original space. It then models the changes through this core space alongside corresponding weights to reconstruct alterations in the original space. FLoRA effectively preserves the structural integrity of the change of original N-dimensional parameter space, meanwhile decomposes it via low-rank tensor decomposition. Extensive experiments on computer vision, natural language processing and multi-modal tasks validate FLoRA's effectiveness. Codes are available at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepVisionLab/FLoRA.

It is commonly believed that scaling language models should commit a significant space or time cost, by increasing the parameters (parameter scaling) or output tokens (inference-time scaling). We introduce the third and more inference-efficient scaling paradigm: increasing the model's parallel computation during both training and inference time. We apply P diverse and learnable transformations to the input, execute forward passes of the model in parallel, and dynamically aggregate the P outputs. This method, namely parallel scaling (ParScale), scales parallel computation by reusing existing parameters and can be applied to any model structure, optimization procedure, data, or task. We theoretically propose a new scaling law and validate it through large-scale pre-training, which shows that a model with P parallel streams is similar to scaling the parameters by O(log P) while showing superior inference efficiency. For example, ParScale can use up to 22times less memory increase and 6times less latency increase compared to parameter scaling that achieves the same performance improvement. It can also recycle an off-the-shelf pre-trained model into a parallelly scaled one by post-training on a small amount of tokens, further reducing the training budget. The new scaling law we discovered potentially facilitates the deployment of more powerful models in low-resource scenarios, and provides an alternative perspective for the role of computation in machine learning.

In this paper, we investigate the long-term memory learning capabilities of state-space models (SSMs) from the perspective of parameterization. We prove that state-space models without any reparameterization exhibit a memory limitation similar to that of traditional RNNs: the target relationships that can be stably approximated by state-space models must have an exponential decaying memory. Our analysis identifies this "curse of memory" as a result of the recurrent weights converging to a stability boundary, suggesting that a reparameterization technique can be effective. To this end, we introduce a class of reparameterization techniques for SSMs that effectively lift its memory limitations. Besides improving approximation capabilities, we further illustrate that a principled choice of reparameterization scheme can also enhance optimization stability. We validate our findings using synthetic datasets and language models.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

Various parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques have been proposed to enable computationally efficient fine-tuning while maintaining model performance. However, existing PEFT methods are still limited by the growing number of trainable parameters with the rapid deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs). To address this challenge, we present LoRETTA, an ultra-parameter-efficient framework that significantly reduces trainable parameters through tensor-train decomposition. Specifically, we propose two methods, named {LoRETTA}_{adp} and {LoRETTA}_{rep}. The former employs tensorized adapters, offering a high-performance yet lightweight approach for the fine-tuning of LLMs. The latter emphasizes fine-tuning via weight parameterization with a set of small tensor factors. LoRETTA achieves comparable or better performance than most widely used PEFT methods with up to 100times fewer parameters on the LLaMA-2-7B models. Furthermore, empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively improves training efficiency, enjoys better multi-task learning performance, and enhances the anti-overfitting capability. Plug-and-play codes built upon the Huggingface framework and PEFT library will be released.

Novel machine learning methods for tabular data generation are often developed on small datasets which do not match the scale required for scientific applications. We investigate a recent proposal to use XGBoost as the function approximator in diffusion and flow-matching models on tabular data, which proved to be extremely memory intensive, even on tiny datasets. In this work, we conduct a critical analysis of the existing implementation from an engineering perspective, and show that these limitations are not fundamental to the method; with better implementation it can be scaled to datasets 370x larger than previously used. Our efficient implementation also unlocks scaling models to much larger sizes which we show directly leads to improved performance on benchmark tasks. We also propose algorithmic improvements that can further benefit resource usage and model performance, including multi-output trees which are well-suited to generative modeling. Finally, we present results on large-scale scientific datasets derived from experimental particle physics as part of the Fast Calorimeter Simulation Challenge. Code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/calo-forest.

Data preparation is the first and a very important step towards any Large Language Model (LLM) development. This paper introduces an easy-to-use, extensible, and scale-flexible open-source data preparation toolkit called Data Prep Kit (DPK). DPK is architected and designed to enable users to scale their data preparation to their needs. With DPK they can prepare data on a local machine or effortlessly scale to run on a cluster with thousands of CPU Cores. DPK comes with a highly scalable, yet extensible set of modules that transform natural language and code data. If the user needs additional transforms, they can be easily developed using extensive DPK support for transform creation. These modules can be used independently or pipelined to perform a series of operations. In this paper, we describe DPK architecture and show its performance from a small scale to a very large number of CPUs. The modules from DPK have been used for the preparation of Granite Models [1] [2]. We believe DPK is a valuable contribution to the AI community to easily prepare data to enhance the performance of their LLM models or to fine-tune models with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG).

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Large Language Model training with 8-bit floating point (FP8) formats promises significant efficiency improvements, but reduced numerical precision makes training challenging. It is currently possible to train in FP8 only if one is willing to tune various hyperparameters, reduce model scale, or accept the overhead of computing dynamic scale factors. We demonstrate simple, scalable FP8 training that requires no dynamic scaling factors or special hyperparameters, even at large model sizes. Our method, munit Scaling (muS), also enables simple hyperparameter transfer across model widths, matched numerics across training and inference, and other desirable properties. munit Scaling is straightforward to implement, consisting of a set of minimal interventions based on a first-principles analysis of common transformer operations. We validate our method by training models from 1B to 13B parameters, performing all hidden linear layer computations in FP8. We achieve quality equal to higher precision baselines while also training up to 33% faster.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

Accumulation of corporate data in the cloud has attracted more enterprise applications to the cloud creating data gravity. As a consequence, network traffic has become more cloud centric. This increase in cloud centric traffic poses new challenges in designing learning systems for streaming data due to class imbalance. The number of classes plays a vital role in the accuracy of the classifiers built from the data streams. In this paper, we present a vector quantization-based sampling method, which substantially reduces the class imbalance in data streams. We demonstrate its effectiveness by conducting experiments on network traffic and anomaly dataset with commonly used ML model building methods; Multilayered Perceptron on TensorFlow backend, Support Vector Machines, K-Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forests. We built models using parallel processing, batch processing, and randomly selecting samples. We show that the accuracy of classification models improves when the data streams are pre-processed with our method. We used out of the box hyper-parameters of these classifiers and auto sklearn for hyperparameter optimization.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Large datasets have become commonplace in NLP research. However, the increased emphasis on data quantity has made it challenging to assess the quality of data. We introduce Data Maps---a model-based tool to characterize and diagnose datasets. We leverage a largely ignored source of information: the behavior of the model on individual instances during training (training dynamics) for building data maps. This yields two intuitive measures for each example---the model's confidence in the true class, and the variability of this confidence across epochs---obtained in a single run of training. Experiments across four datasets show that these model-dependent measures reveal three distinct regions in the data map, each with pronounced characteristics. First, our data maps show the presence of "ambiguous" regions with respect to the model, which contribute the most towards out-of-distribution generalization. Second, the most populous regions in the data are "easy to learn" for the model, and play an important role in model optimization. Finally, data maps uncover a region with instances that the model finds "hard to learn"; these often correspond to labeling errors. Our results indicate that a shift in focus from quantity to quality of data could lead to robust models and improved out-of-distribution generalization.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a core problem for the machine learning community and remains largely unsolved due to the significant computational resources required to evaluate hyperparameter configurations. As a result, a series of recent related works have focused on the direction of transfer learning for quickly fine-tuning hyperparameters on a dataset. Unfortunately, the community does not have a common large-scale benchmark for comparing HPO algorithms. Instead, the de facto practice consists of empirical protocols on arbitrary small-scale meta-datasets that vary inconsistently across publications, making reproducibility a challenge. To resolve this major bottleneck and enable a fair and fast comparison of black-box HPO methods on a level playing field, we propose HPO-B, a new large-scale benchmark in the form of a collection of meta-datasets. Our benchmark is assembled and preprocessed from the OpenML repository and consists of 176 search spaces (algorithms) evaluated sparsely on 196 datasets with a total of 6.4 million hyperparameter evaluations. For ensuring reproducibility on our benchmark, we detail explicit experimental protocols, splits, and evaluation measures for comparing methods for both non-transfer, as well as, transfer learning HPO.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

Language models and specialized table embedding models have recently demonstrated strong performance on many tasks over tabular data. Researchers and practitioners are keen to leverage these models in many new application contexts; but limited understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models, and the table representations they generate, makes the process of finding a suitable model for a given task reliant on trial and error. There is an urgent need to gain a comprehensive understanding of these models to minimize inefficiency and failures in downstream usage. To address this need, we propose Observatory, a formal framework to systematically analyze embedding representations of relational tables. Motivated both by invariants of the relational data model and by statistical considerations regarding data distributions, we define eight primitive properties, and corresponding measures to quantitatively characterize table embeddings for these properties. Based on these properties, we define an extensible framework to evaluate language and table embedding models. We collect and synthesize a suite of datasets and use Observatory to analyze nine such models. Our analysis provides insights into the strengths and weaknesses of learned representations over tables. We find, for example, that some models are sensitive to table structure such as column order, that functional dependencies are rarely reflected in embeddings, and that specialized table embedding models have relatively lower sample fidelity. Such insights help researchers and practitioners better anticipate model behaviors and select appropriate models for their downstream tasks, while guiding researchers in the development of new models.

This paper presents a systematic overview and comparison of parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods covering over 40 papers published between February 2019 and February 2023. These methods aim to resolve the infeasibility and impracticality of fine-tuning large language models by only training a small set of parameters. We provide a taxonomy that covers a broad range of methods and present a detailed method comparison with a specific focus on real-life efficiency and fine-tuning multibillion-scale language models.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

The most popular framework for distributed training of machine learning models is the (synchronous) parameter server (PS). This paradigm consists of n workers, which iteratively compute updates of the model parameters, and a stateful PS, which waits and aggregates all updates to generate a new estimate of model parameters and sends it back to the workers for a new iteration. Transient computation slowdowns or transmission delays can intolerably lengthen the time of each iteration. An efficient way to mitigate this problem is to let the PS wait only for the fastest n-b updates, before generating the new parameters. The slowest b workers are called backup workers. The optimal number b of backup workers depends on the cluster configuration and workload, but also (as we show in this paper) on the hyper-parameters of the learning algorithm and the current stage of the training. We propose DBW, an algorithm that dynamically decides the number of backup workers during the training process to maximize the convergence speed at each iteration. Our experiments show that DBW 1) removes the necessity to tune b by preliminary time-consuming experiments, and 2) makes the training up to a factor 3 faster than the optimal static configuration.

There are growing interests in adapting large-scale language models using parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods. However, accelerating the model itself and achieving better inference efficiency through model compression has not been thoroughly explored yet. Model compression could provide the benefits of reducing memory footprints, enabling low-precision computations, and ultimately achieving cost-effective inference. To combine parameter-efficient adaptation and model compression, we propose AlphaTuning consisting of post-training quantization of the pre-trained language model and fine-tuning only some parts of quantized parameters for a target task. Specifically, AlphaTuning works by employing binary-coding quantization, which factorizes the full-precision parameters into binary parameters and a separate set of scaling factors. During the adaptation phase, the binary values are frozen for all tasks, while the scaling factors are fine-tuned for the downstream task. We demonstrate that AlphaTuning, when applied to GPT-2 and OPT, performs competitively with full fine-tuning on a variety of downstream tasks while achieving >10x compression ratio under 4-bit quantization and >1,000x reduction in the number of trainable parameters.

The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their parameters while processing an input. For these models, parameter count and computational requirement form two independent axes along which an increase leads to better performance. In this work we derive and justify scaling laws defined on these two variables which generalize those known for standard language models and describe the performance of a wide range of routing architectures trained via three different techniques. Afterwards we provide two applications of these laws: first deriving an Effective Parameter Count along which all models scale at the same rate, and then using the scaling coefficients to give a quantitative comparison of the three routing techniques considered. Our analysis derives from an extensive evaluation of Routing Networks across five orders of magnitude of size, including models with hundreds of experts and hundreds of billions of parameters.

Training data compositions for Large Language Models (LLMs) can significantly affect their downstream performance. However, a thorough data ablation study exploring large sets of candidate data mixtures is typically prohibitively expensive since the full effect is seen only after training the models; this can lead practitioners to settle for sub-optimal data mixtures. We propose an efficient method for approximating data ablations which trains individual models on subsets of a training corpus and reuses them across evaluations of combinations of subsets. In continued pre-training experiments, we find that, given an arbitrary evaluation set, the perplexity score of a single model trained on a candidate set of data is strongly correlated with perplexity scores of parameter averages of models trained on distinct partitions of that data. From this finding, we posit that researchers and practitioners can conduct inexpensive simulations of data ablations by maintaining a pool of models that were each trained on partitions of a large training corpus, and assessing candidate data mixtures by evaluating parameter averages of combinations of these models. This approach allows for substantial improvements in amortized training efficiency -- scaling only linearly with respect to new data -- by enabling reuse of previous training computation, opening new avenues for improving model performance through rigorous, incremental data assessment and mixing.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

Data organized in tabular format is ubiquitous in real-world applications, and users often craft tables with biased feature definitions and flexibly set prediction targets of their interests. Thus, a rapid development of a robust, effective, dataset-versatile, user-friendly tabular prediction approach is highly desired. While Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and existing deep neural networks (DNNs) have been extensively utilized by professional users, they present several challenges for casual users, particularly: (i) the dilemma of model selection due to their different dataset preferences, and (ii) the need for heavy hyperparameter searching, failing which their performances are deemed inadequate. In this paper, we delve into this question: Can we develop a deep learning model that serves as a "sure bet" solution for a wide range of tabular prediction tasks, while also being user-friendly for casual users? We delve into three key drawbacks of deep tabular models, encompassing: (P1) lack of rotational variance property, (P2) large data demand, and (P3) over-smooth solution. We propose ExcelFormer, addressing these challenges through a semi-permeable attention module that effectively constrains the influence of less informative features to break the DNNs' rotational invariance property (for P1), data augmentation approaches tailored for tabular data (for P2), and attentive feedforward network to boost the model fitting capability (for P3). These designs collectively make ExcelFormer a "sure bet" solution for diverse tabular datasets. Extensive and stratified experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms previous approaches across diverse tabular data prediction tasks, and this framework can be friendly to casual users, offering ease of use without the heavy hyperparameter tuning.

Scaling laws in language modeling traditionally quantify training loss as a function of dataset size and model parameters, providing compute-optimal estimates but often neglecting the impact of data quality on model generalization. In this paper, we extend the conventional understanding of scaling law by offering a microscopic view of data quality within the original formulation -- effective training tokens -- which we posit to be a critical determinant of performance for parameter-constrained language models. Specifically, we formulate the proposed term of effective training tokens to be a combination of two readily-computed indicators of text: (i) text diversity and (ii) syntheticity as measured by a teacher model. We pretrained over 200 models of 25M to 1.5B parameters on a diverse set of sampled, synthetic data, and estimated the constants that relate text quality, model size, training tokens, and eight reasoning task accuracy scores. We demonstrated the estimated constants yield +0.83 Pearson correlation with true accuracies, and analyzed it in scenarios involving widely-used data techniques such as data sampling and synthesis which aim to improve data quality.

Parameterized tight-binding models fit to first principles calculations can provide an efficient and accurate quantum mechanical method for predicting properties of molecules and solids. However, well-tested parameter sets are generally only available for a limited number of atom combinations, making routine use of this method difficult. Furthermore, most previous models consider only simple two-body interactions, which limits accuracy. To tackle these challenges, we develop a density functional theory database of nearly one million materials, which we use to fit a universal set of tight-binding parameters for 65 elements and their binary combinations. We include both two-body and three-body effective interaction terms in our model, plus self-consistent charge transfer, enabling our model to work for metallic, covalent, and ionic bonds with the same parameter set. To ensure predictive power, we adopt a learning framework where we repeatedly test the model on new low energy crystal structures and then add them to the fitting dataset, iterating until predictions improve. We distribute the materials database and tools developed in this work publicly.

Hyperparameter tuning of deep learning models can lead to order-of-magnitude performance gains for the same amount of compute. Despite this, systematic tuning is uncommon, particularly for large models, which are expensive to evaluate and tend to have many hyperparameters, necessitating difficult judgment calls about tradeoffs, budgets, and search bounds. To address these issues and propose a practical method for robustly tuning large models, we present Cost-Aware Pareto Region Bayesian Search (CARBS), a Bayesian optimization algorithm that performs local search around the performance-cost Pareto frontier. CARBS does well even in unbounded search spaces with many hyperparameters, learns scaling relationships so that it can tune models even as they are scaled up, and automates much of the "black magic" of tuning. Among our results, we effectively solve the entire ProcGen benchmark just by tuning a simple baseline (PPO, as provided in the original ProcGen paper). We also reproduce the model size vs. training tokens scaling result from the Chinchilla project (Hoffmann et al. 2022), while simultaneously discovering scaling laws for every other hyperparameter, via an easy automated process that uses significantly less compute and is applicable to any deep learning problem (not just language models).

Scaling laws are a critical component of the LLM development pipeline, most famously as a way to forecast training decisions such as 'compute-optimally' trading-off parameter count and dataset size, alongside a more recent growing list of other crucial decisions. In this work, we ask whether compute-optimal scaling behaviour can be skill-dependent. In particular, we examine knowledge and reasoning-based skills such as knowledge-based QA and code generation, and we answer this question in the affirmative: scaling laws are skill-dependent. Next, to understand whether skill-dependent scaling is an artefact of the pretraining datamix, we conduct an extensive ablation of different datamixes and find that, also when correcting for datamix differences, knowledge and code exhibit fundamental differences in scaling behaviour. We conclude with an analysis of how our findings relate to standard compute-optimal scaling using a validation set, and find that a misspecified validation set can impact compute-optimal parameter count by nearly 50%, depending on its skill composition.

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series forecasting, their practical deployment remains constrained by excessive computational demands and memory footprints. Existing LLM-based approaches typically suffer from three critical limitations: Inefficient parameter utilization in handling numerical time series patterns; Modality misalignment between continuous temporal signals and discrete text embeddings; and Inflexibility for real-time expert knowledge integration. We present SMETimes, the first systematic investigation of sub-3B parameter SLMs for efficient and accurate time series forecasting. Our approach centers on three key innovations: A statistically-enhanced prompting mechanism that bridges numerical time series with textual semantics through descriptive statistical features; A adaptive fusion embedding architecture that aligns temporal patterns with language model token spaces through learnable parameters; And a dynamic mixture-of-experts framework enabled by SLMs' computational efficiency, adaptively combining base predictions with domain-specific models. Extensive evaluations across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that our 3B-parameter SLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on five primary datasets while maintaining 3.8x faster training and 5.2x lower memory consumption compared to 7B-parameter LLM baselines. Notably, the proposed model exhibits better learning capabilities, achieving 12.3% lower MSE than conventional LLM. Ablation studies validate that our statistical prompting and cross-modal fusion modules respectively contribute 15.7% and 18.2% error reduction in long-horizon forecasting tasks. By redefining the efficiency-accuracy trade-off landscape, this work establishes SLMs as viable alternatives to resource-intensive LLMs for practical time series forecasting. Code and models are available at https://github.com/xiyan1234567/SMETimes.

Training neural networks requires increasing amounts of memory. Parameter sharing can reduce memory and communication costs, but existing methods assume networks have many identical layers and utilize hand-crafted sharing strategies that fail to generalize. We introduce Neural Parameter Allocation Search (NPAS), a novel task where the goal is to train a neural network given an arbitrary, fixed parameter budget. NPAS covers both low-budget regimes, which produce compact networks, as well as a novel high-budget regime, where additional capacity can be added to boost performance without increasing inference FLOPs. To address NPAS, we introduce Shapeshifter Networks (SSNs), which automatically learn where and how to share parameters in a network to support any parameter budget without requiring any changes to the architecture or loss function. NPAS and SSNs provide a complete framework for addressing generalized parameter sharing, and can also be combined with prior work for additional performance gains. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using nine network architectures across four diverse tasks, including ImageNet classification and transformers.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

In recent years, the development of robust multi-source models has emerged in the Earth Observation (EO) field. These are models that leverage data from diverse sources to improve predictive accuracy when there is missing data. Despite these advancements, the factors influencing the varying effectiveness of such models remain poorly understood. In this study, we evaluate the predictive performance of six state-of-the-art multi-source models in predicting scenarios where either a single data source is missing or only a single source is available. Our analysis reveals that the efficacy of these models is intricately tied to the nature of the task, the complementarity among data sources, and the model design. Surprisingly, we observe instances where the removal of certain data sources leads to improved predictive performance, challenging the assumption that incorporating all available data is always beneficial. These findings prompt critical reflections on model complexity and the necessity of all collected data sources, potentially shaping the way for more streamlined approaches in EO applications.

It is often useful to compactly summarize important properties of model parameters and training data so that they can be used later without storing and/or iterating over the entire dataset. As a specific case, we consider estimating the Function Space Distance (FSD) over a training set, i.e. the average discrepancy between the outputs of two neural networks. We propose a Linearized Activation Function TRick (LAFTR) and derive an efficient approximation to FSD for ReLU neural networks. The key idea is to approximate the architecture as a linear network with stochastic gating. Despite requiring only one parameter per unit of the network, our approach outcompetes other parametric approximations with larger memory requirements. Applied to continual learning, our parametric approximation is competitive with state-of-the-art nonparametric approximations, which require storing many training examples. Furthermore, we show its efficacy in estimating influence functions accurately and detecting mislabeled examples without expensive iterations over the entire dataset.

The quality of foundation models depends heavily on their training data. Consequently, great efforts have been put into dataset curation. Yet most approaches rely on manual tuning of coarse-grained mixtures of large buckets of data, or filtering by hand-crafted heuristics. An approach that is ultimately more scalable (let alone more satisfying) is to learn which data is actually valuable for training. This type of meta-learning could allow more sophisticated, fine-grained, and effective curation. Our proposed DataRater is an instance of this idea. It estimates the value of training on any particular data point. This is done by meta-learning using `meta-gradients', with the objective of improving training efficiency on held out data. In extensive experiments across a range of model scales and datasets, we find that using our DataRater to filter data is highly effective, resulting in significantly improved compute efficiency.

Modern machine learning research relies on relatively few carefully curated datasets. Even in these datasets, and typically in `untidy' or raw data, practitioners are faced with significant issues of data quality and diversity which can be prohibitively labor intensive to address. Existing methods for dealing with these challenges tend to make strong assumptions about the particular issues at play, and often require a priori knowledge or metadata such as domain labels. Our work is orthogonal to these methods: we instead focus on providing a unified and efficient framework for Metadata Archaeology -- uncovering and inferring metadata of examples in a dataset. We curate different subsets of data that might exist in a dataset (e.g. mislabeled, atypical, or out-of-distribution examples) using simple transformations, and leverage differences in learning dynamics between these probe suites to infer metadata of interest. Our method is on par with far more sophisticated mitigation methods across different tasks: identifying and correcting mislabeled examples, classifying minority-group samples, prioritizing points relevant for training and enabling scalable human auditing of relevant examples.

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS. The project page can be found at https://www.taolinwei.com/calibration-study

Pretraining data selection has the potential to improve language model pretraining efficiency by utilizing higher-quality data from massive web data corpora. Current data selection methods, which rely on either hand-crafted rules or larger reference models, are conducted statically and do not capture the evolving data preferences during pretraining. In this paper, we introduce model-aware data selection with data influence models (MATES), where a data influence model continuously adapts to the evolving data preferences of the pretraining model and then selects the data most effective for the current pretraining progress. Specifically, we fine-tune a small data influence model to approximate oracle data preference signals collected by locally probing the pretraining model and to select data accordingly for the next pretraining stage. Experiments on Pythia and the C4 dataset demonstrate that MATES significantly outperforms random data selection on extensive downstream tasks in both zero- and few-shot settings. It doubles the gains achieved by recent data selection approaches that leverage larger reference models and reduces the total FLOPs required to reach certain performances by half. Further analysis validates the ever-changing data preferences of pretraining models and the effectiveness of our data influence models to capture them. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/cxcscmu/MATES.

As language models have scaled both their number of parameters and pretraining dataset sizes, the computational cost for pretraining has become intractable except for the most well-resourced teams. This increasing cost makes it ever more important to be able to reuse a model after it has completed pretraining; allowing for a model's abilities to further improve without needing to train from scratch. In this work, we detail a set of guidelines that cover how to design efficacious data distributions and learning rate schedules for continued pretraining of language models. When applying these findings within a continued pretraining run on top of a well-trained 15B parameter model, we show an improvement of 9\% in average model accuracy compared to the baseline of continued training on the pretraining set. The resulting recipe provides a practical starting point with which to begin developing language models through reuse rather than retraining.

Parameter regularization or allocation methods are effective in overcoming catastrophic forgetting in lifelong learning. However, they solve all tasks in a sequence uniformly and ignore the differences in the learning difficulty of different tasks. So parameter regularization methods face significant forgetting when learning a new task very different from learned tasks, and parameter allocation methods face unnecessary parameter overhead when learning simple tasks. In this paper, we propose the Parameter Allocation & Regularization (PAR), which adaptively select an appropriate strategy for each task from parameter allocation and regularization based on its learning difficulty. A task is easy for a model that has learned tasks related to it and vice versa. We propose a divergence estimation method based on the Nearest-Prototype distance to measure the task relatedness using only features of the new task. Moreover, we propose a time-efficient relatedness-aware sampling-based architecture search strategy to reduce the parameter overhead for allocation. Experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that, compared with SOTAs, our method is scalable and significantly reduces the model's redundancy while improving the model's performance. Further qualitative analysis indicates that PAR obtains reasonable task-relatedness.

This work presents AstroPT, an autoregressive pretrained transformer developed with astronomical use-cases in mind. The AstroPT models presented here have been pretrained on 8.6 million 512 times 512 pixel grz-band galaxy postage stamp observations from the DESI Legacy Survey DR8. We train a selection of foundation models of increasing size from 1 million to 2.1 billion parameters, and find that AstroPT follows a similar saturating log-log scaling law to textual models. We also find that the models' performances on downstream tasks as measured by linear probing improves with model size up to the model parameter saturation point. We believe that collaborative community development paves the best route towards realising an open source `Large Observation Model' -- a model trained on data taken from the observational sciences at the scale seen in natural language processing. To this end, we release the source code, weights, and dataset for AstroPT under the MIT license, and invite potential collaborators to join us in collectively building and researching these models.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Foundation models are trained on increasingly immense and opaque datasets. Even while these models are now key in AI system building, it can be difficult to answer the straightforward question: has the model already encountered a given example during training? We therefore propose a widespread adoption of Data Portraits: artifacts that record training data and allow for downstream inspection. First we outline the properties of such an artifact and discuss how existing solutions can be used to increase transparency. We then propose and implement a solution based on data sketching, stressing fast and space efficient querying. Using our tools, we document a popular language modeling corpus (The Pile) and a recently released code modeling dataset (The Stack). We show that our solution enables answering questions about test set leakage and model plagiarism. Our tool is lightweight and fast, costing only 3% of the dataset size in overhead. We release a live interface of our tools at https://dataportraits.org/ and call on dataset and model creators to release Data Portraits as a complement to current documentation practices.

A major factor in the recent success of large language models is the use of enormous and ever-growing text datasets for unsupervised pre-training. However, naively training a model on all available data may not be optimal (or feasible), as the quality of available text data can vary. Filtering out data can also decrease the carbon footprint and financial costs of training models by reducing the amount of training required. Data selection methods aim to determine which candidate data points to include in the training dataset and how to appropriately sample from the selected data points. The promise of improved data selection methods has caused the volume of research in the area to rapidly expand. However, because deep learning is mostly driven by empirical evidence and experimentation on large-scale data is expensive, few organizations have the resources for extensive data selection research. Consequently, knowledge of effective data selection practices has become concentrated within a few organizations, many of which do not openly share their findings and methodologies. To narrow this gap in knowledge, we present a comprehensive review of existing literature on data selection methods and related research areas, providing a taxonomy of existing approaches. By describing the current landscape of research, this work aims to accelerate progress in data selection by establishing an entry point for new and established researchers. Additionally, throughout this review we draw attention to noticeable holes in the literature and conclude the paper by proposing promising avenues for future research.

Large language models have transformed natural language processing, yet supervised fine-tuning (SFT) remains computationally intensive. This paper formally proves that capabilities acquired through SFT can be approximated by a base transformer model using inference-time techniques, specifically in-context learning (ICL), without altering model parameters, under idealized assumptions including unbounded computational resources and access to the fine-tuning dataset. We extend these results to practical scenarios with finite context lengths and partial dataset access. For text generation tasks with fixed output length l, datasets of size Oleft( m V{varepsilon^2} log m{delta} right) or, with bounded context, Oleft( l log V{varepsilon^2} log 1{delta} right) suffice to approximate fine-tuned behavior across m contexts within error varepsilon, where V is the vocabulary size and delta is the failure probability. For linear classification, datasets of size Oleft( d{varepsilon} right) or, with fixed context, Oleft( 1{varepsilon^2} log 1{delta} right) are sufficient, where d is the input dimension. Grounded in the Turing completeness of transformers, these results provide a theoretical foundation for resource-efficient deployment of large language models, with practical techniques like retrieval-augmented generation bridging theory to real-world applications.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

TabPFN [Hollmann et al., 2023], a Transformer model pretrained to perform in-context learning on fresh tabular classification problems, was presented at the last ICLR conference. To better understand its behavior, we treat it as a black-box function approximator generator and observe its generated function approximations on a varied selection of training datasets. Exploring its learned inductive biases in this manner, we observe behavior that is at turns either brilliant or baffling. We conclude this post with thoughts on how these results might inform the development, evaluation, and application of prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) in the future.

In this paper, we introduce Kun, a novel approach for creating high-quality instruction-tuning datasets for large language models (LLMs) without relying on manual annotations. Adapting a self-training algorithm based on instruction back-translation and answer polishment, Kun leverages unlabelled data from diverse sources such as Wudao, Wanjuan, and SkyPile to generate a substantial dataset of over a million Chinese instructional data points. This approach significantly deviates from traditional methods by using a self-curation process to refine and select the most effective instruction-output pairs. Our experiments with the 6B-parameter Yi model across various benchmarks demonstrate Kun's robustness and scalability. Our method's core contributions lie in its algorithmic advancement, which enhances data retention and clarity, and its innovative data generation approach that substantially reduces the reliance on costly and time-consuming manual annotations. This methodology presents a scalable and efficient solution for improving the instruction-following capabilities of LLMs, with significant implications for their application across diverse fields. The code and dataset can be found at https://github.com/Zheng0428/COIG-Kun

Modern machine learning relies on datasets to develop and validate research ideas. Given the growth of publicly available data, finding the right dataset to use is increasingly difficult. Any research question imposes explicit and implicit constraints on how well a given dataset will enable researchers to answer this question, such as dataset size, modality, and domain. We operationalize the task of recommending datasets given a short natural language description of a research idea, to help people find relevant datasets for their needs. Dataset recommendation poses unique challenges as an information retrieval problem; datasets are hard to directly index for search and there are no corpora readily available for this task. To facilitate this task, we build the DataFinder Dataset which consists of a larger automatically-constructed training set (17.5K queries) and a smaller expert-annotated evaluation set (392 queries). Using this data, we compare various information retrieval algorithms on our test set and present a superior bi-encoder retriever for text-based dataset recommendation. This system, trained on the DataFinder Dataset, finds more relevant search results than existing third-party dataset search engines. To encourage progress on dataset recommendation, we release our dataset and models to the public.

This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language descriptions. The Mostly Basic Programming Problems (MBPP) dataset contains 974 programming tasks, designed to be solvable by entry-level programmers. The MathQA-Python dataset, a Python version of the MathQA benchmark, contains 23914 problems that evaluate the ability of the models to synthesize code from more complex text. On both datasets, we find that synthesis performance scales log-linearly with model size. Our largest models, even without finetuning on a code dataset, can synthesize solutions to 59.6 percent of the problems from MBPP using few-shot learning with a well-designed prompt. Fine-tuning on a held-out portion of the dataset improves performance by about 10 percentage points across most model sizes. On the MathQA-Python dataset, the largest fine-tuned model achieves 83.8 percent accuracy. Going further, we study the model's ability to engage in dialog about code, incorporating human feedback to improve its solutions. We find that natural language feedback from a human halves the error rate compared to the model's initial prediction. Additionally, we conduct an error analysis to shed light on where these models fall short and what types of programs are most difficult to generate. Finally, we explore the semantic grounding of these models by fine-tuning them to predict the results of program execution. We find that even our best models are generally unable to predict the output of a program given a specific input.

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the data preparation pipeline developed for the OpenGPT-X project, a large-scale initiative aimed at creating open and high-performance multilingual large language models (LLMs). The project goal is to deliver models that cover all major European languages, with a particular focus on real-world applications within the European Union. We explain all data processing steps, starting with the data selection and requirement definition to the preparation of the final datasets for model training. We distinguish between curated data and web data, as each of these categories is handled by distinct pipelines, with curated data undergoing minimal filtering and web data requiring extensive filtering and deduplication. This distinction guided the development of specialized algorithmic solutions for both pipelines. In addition to describing the processing methodologies, we provide an in-depth analysis of the datasets, increasing transparency and alignment with European data regulations. Finally, we share key insights and challenges faced during the project, offering recommendations for future endeavors in large-scale multilingual data preparation for LLMs.

Neural scaling laws define a predictable relationship between a model's parameter count and its performance after training in the form of a power law. However, most research to date has not explicitly investigated whether scaling laws can be used to accelerate model development. In this work, we perform such an empirical investigation across a wide range of language understanding tasks, starting from models with as few as 10K parameters, and evaluate downstream performance across 9 language understanding tasks. We find that scaling laws emerge at finetuning time in some NLP tasks, and that they can also be exploited for debugging convergence when training large models. Moreover, for tasks where scaling laws exist, they can be used to predict the performance of larger models, which enables effective model selection. However, revealing scaling laws requires careful hyperparameter tuning and multiple runs for the purpose of uncertainty estimation, which incurs additional overhead, partially offsetting the computational benefits.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

With contributions from the open-source community, a vast amount of instruction tuning (IT) data has emerged. Given the significant resource allocation required for training and evaluating models, it is advantageous to have an efficient method for selecting high-quality IT data. However, existing methods for instruction data selection have limitations such as relying on fragile external APIs, being affected by biases in GPT models, or reducing the diversity of the selected instruction dataset. In this paper, we propose an industrial-friendly, expert-aligned and diversity-preserved instruction data selection method: Clustering and Ranking (CaR). CaR employs a two-step process: first, it ranks instruction pairs using a high-accuracy (84.25%) scoring model aligned with expert preferences; second, it preserves dataset diversity through clustering. In our experiment, CaR efficiently selected a mere 1.96% of Alpaca's IT data, yet the resulting AlpaCaR model surpassed Alpaca's performance by an average of 32.1% in GPT-4 evaluations. Moreover, we find that data selecting is a consistent paradigm whether the pre-trained model is more capable or the model parameters scaling up. Our approach employs compact models with 550M parameters and incurs just 11.2% of the financial outlay of current methods, enhancing its industrial deployability.

Climate and weather prediction traditionally relies on complex numerical simulations of atmospheric physics. Deep learning approaches, such as transformers, have recently challenged the simulation paradigm with complex network forecasts. However, they often act as data-driven black-box models that neglect the underlying physics and lack uncertainty quantification. We address these limitations with ClimODE, a spatiotemporal continuous-time process that implements a key principle of advection from statistical mechanics, namely, weather changes due to a spatial movement of quantities over time. ClimODE models precise weather evolution with value-conserving dynamics, learning global weather transport as a neural flow, which also enables estimating the uncertainty in predictions. Our approach outperforms existing data-driven methods in global and regional forecasting with an order of magnitude smaller parameterization, establishing a new state of the art.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

The quality of underlying training data is very crucial for building performant machine learning models with wider generalizabilty. However, current machine learning (ML) tools lack streamlined processes for improving the data quality. So, getting data quality insights and iteratively pruning the errors to obtain a dataset which is most representative of downstream use cases is still an ad-hoc manual process. Our work addresses this data tooling gap, required to build improved ML workflows purely through data-centric techniques. More specifically, we introduce a systematic framework for (1) finding noisy or mislabelled samples in the dataset and, (2) identifying the most informative samples, which when included in training would provide maximal model performance lift. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework on public as well as private enterprise datasets of two Fortune 500 companies, and are confident this work will form the basis for ML teams to perform more intelligent data discovery and pruning.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

Recent neural network-based language models have benefited greatly from scaling up the size of training datasets and the number of parameters in the models themselves. Scaling can be complicated due to various factors including the need to distribute computation on supercomputer clusters (e.g., TPUs), prevent bottlenecks when infeeding data, and ensure reproducible results. In this work, we present two software libraries that ease these issues: t5x simplifies the process of building and training large language models at scale while maintaining ease of use, and seqio provides a task-based API for simple creation of fast and reproducible training data and evaluation pipelines. These open-source libraries have been used to train models with hundreds of billions of parameters on datasets with multiple terabytes of training data. Along with the libraries, we release configurations and instructions for T5-like encoder-decoder models as well as GPT-like decoder-only architectures. t5x and seqio are open source and available at https://github.com/google-research/t5x and https://github.com/google/seqio, respectively.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Diffusion models excel in generating images that closely resemble their training data but are also susceptible to data memorization, raising privacy, ethical, and legal concerns, particularly in sensitive domains such as medical imaging. We hypothesize that this memorization stems from the overparameterization of deep models and propose that regularizing model capacity during fine-tuning can mitigate this issue. Firstly, we empirically show that regulating the model capacity via Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) mitigates memorization to some extent, however, it further requires the identification of the exact parameter subsets to be fine-tuned for high-quality generation. To identify these subsets, we introduce a bi-level optimization framework, MemControl, that automates parameter selection using memorization and generation quality metrics as rewards during fine-tuning. The parameter subsets discovered through MemControl achieve a superior tradeoff between generation quality and memorization. For the task of medical image generation, our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art memorization mitigation strategies by fine-tuning as few as 0.019% of model parameters. Moreover, we demonstrate that the discovered parameter subsets are transferable to non-medical domains. Our framework is scalable to large datasets, agnostic to reward functions, and can be integrated with existing approaches for further memorization mitigation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to empirically evaluate memorization in medical images and propose a targeted yet universal mitigation strategy. The code is available at https://github.com/Raman1121/Diffusion_Memorization_HPO.

Data quality and diversity are key to the construction of effective instruction-tuning datasets. % With the increasing availability of open-source instruction-tuning datasets, it is advantageous to automatically select high-quality and diverse subsets from a vast amount of data. % Existing methods typically prioritize instance quality and use heuristic rules to maintain diversity. % However, this absence of a comprehensive view of the entire collection often leads to suboptimal results. % Moreover, heuristic rules generally focus on distance or clustering within the embedding space, which fails to accurately capture the intent of complex instructions in the semantic space. % To bridge this gap, we propose a unified method for quantifying the information content of datasets. This method models the semantic space by constructing a label graph and quantifies diversity based on the distribution of information within the graph. % Based on such a measurement, we further introduce an efficient sampling method that selects data samples iteratively to Maximize the Information Gain (MIG) in semantic space. % Experiments on various datasets and base models demonstrate that MIG consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods. % Notably, the model fine-tuned with 5\% Tulu3 data sampled by MIG achieves comparable performance to the official SFT model trained on the full dataset, with improvements of +5.73\% on AlpacaEval and +6.89\% on Wildbench.

Every data selection method inherently has a target. In practice, these targets often emerge implicitly through benchmark-driven iteration: researchers develop selection strategies, train models, measure benchmark performance, then refine accordingly. This raises a natural question: what happens when we make this optimization explicit? To explore this, we propose benchmark-targeted ranking (BETR), a simple method that selects pretraining documents based on similarity to benchmark training examples. BETR embeds benchmark examples and a sample of pretraining documents in a shared space, scores this sample by similarity to benchmarks, then trains a lightweight classifier to predict these scores for the full corpus. We compare data selection methods by training over 500 models spanning 10^{19} to 10^{22} FLOPs and fitting scaling laws to them. From this, we find that simply aligning pretraining data to evaluation benchmarks using BETR achieves a 2.1x compute multiplier over DCLM-Baseline (4.7x over unfiltered data) and improves performance on 9 out of 10 tasks across all scales. BETR also generalizes well: when targeting a diverse set of benchmarks disjoint from our evaluation suite, it still matches or outperforms baselines. Our scaling analysis further reveals a clear trend: larger models require less aggressive filtering. Overall, our findings show that directly matching pretraining data to target tasks precisely shapes model capabilities and highlight that optimal selection strategies must adapt to model scale.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Learning high-quality feature embeddings efficiently and effectively is critical for the performance of web-scale machine learning systems. A typical model ingests hundreds of features with vocabularies on the order of millions to billions of tokens. The standard approach is to represent each feature value as a d-dimensional embedding, introducing hundreds of billions of parameters for extremely high-cardinality features. This bottleneck has led to substantial progress in alternative embedding algorithms. Many of these methods, however, make the assumption that each feature uses an independent embedding table. This work introduces a simple yet highly effective framework, Feature Multiplexing, where one single representation space is used across many different categorical features. Our theoretical and empirical analysis reveals that multiplexed embeddings can be decomposed into components from each constituent feature, allowing models to distinguish between features. We show that multiplexed representations lead to Pareto-optimal parameter-accuracy tradeoffs for three public benchmark datasets. Further, we propose a highly practical approach called Unified Embedding with three major benefits: simplified feature configuration, strong adaptation to dynamic data distributions, and compatibility with modern hardware. Unified embedding gives significant improvements in offline and online metrics compared to highly competitive baselines across five web-scale search, ads, and recommender systems, where it serves billions of users across the world in industry-leading products.

Fine-tuning is a prominent technique to adapt a pre-trained language model to downstream scenarios. In parameter-efficient fine-tuning, only a small subset of modules are trained over the downstream datasets, while leaving the rest of the pre-trained model frozen to save computation resources. In recent years, a popular productization form arises as Model-as-a-Service (MaaS), in which vendors provide abundant pre-trained language models, server resources and core functions, and customers can fine-tune, deploy and invoke their customized model by accessing the one-stop MaaS with their own private dataset. In this paper, we identify the model and data privacy leakage risks in MaaS fine-tuning, and propose a Split-and-Privatize (SAP) framework, which manage to mitigate the privacy issues by adapting the existing split learning architecture. The proposed SAP framework is sufficiently investigated by experiments, and the results indicate that it can enhance the empirical privacy by 62% at the cost of 1% model performance degradation on the Stanford Sentiment Treebank dataset.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

Learning to generate neural network parameters conditioned on task descriptions and architecture specifications is pivotal for advancing model adaptability and transfer learning. Existing methods especially those based on diffusion models suffer from limited scalability to large architectures, rigidity in handling varying network depths, and disjointed parameter generation that undermines inter-layer coherence. In this work, we propose IGPG (Instruction Guided Parameter Generation), an autoregressive framework that unifies parameter synthesis across diverse tasks and architectures. IGPG leverages a VQ-VAE and an autoregressive model to generate neural network parameters, conditioned on task instructions, dataset, and architecture details. By autoregressively generating neural network weights' tokens, IGPG ensures inter-layer coherence and enables efficient adaptation across models and datasets. Operating at the token level, IGPG effectively captures complex parameter distributions aggregated from a broad spectrum of pretrained models. Extensive experiments on multiple vision datasets demonstrate that IGPG consolidates diverse pretrained models into a single, flexible generative framework. The synthesized parameters achieve competitive or superior performance relative to state-of-the-art methods, especially in terms of scalability and efficiency when applied to large architectures. These results underscore ICPG potential as a powerful tool for pretrained weight retrieval, model selection, and rapid task-specific fine-tuning.

Data pruning algorithms are commonly used to reduce the memory and computational cost of the optimization process. Recent empirical results reveal that random data pruning remains a strong baseline and outperforms most existing data pruning methods in the high compression regime, i.e., where a fraction of 30% or less of the data is kept. This regime has recently attracted a lot of interest as a result of the role of data pruning in improving the so-called neural scaling laws; in [Sorscher et al.], the authors showed the need for high-quality data pruning algorithms in order to beat the sample power law. In this work, we focus on score-based data pruning algorithms and show theoretically and empirically why such algorithms fail in the high compression regime. We demonstrate ``No Free Lunch" theorems for data pruning and present calibration protocols that enhance the performance of existing pruning algorithms in this high compression regime using randomization.

In this study, we present a novel dataset for training machine learning models translating between OpenMP Fortran and C++ code. To ensure reliability and applicability, the dataset is created from a range of representative open-source OpenMP benchmarks. It is also refined using a meticulous code similarity test. The effectiveness of our dataset is assessed using both quantitative (CodeBLEU) and qualitative (human evaluation) methods. We showcase how this dataset significantly elevates the translation competencies of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, models without prior coding knowledge experienced a boost of times~5.1 in their CodeBLEU scores, while models with some coding familiarity saw an impressive times~9.9-fold increase. The best fine-tuned model using our dataset outperforms GPT-4. It is also reaching human-level accuracy. This work underscores the immense potential of our dataset in propelling advancements in the domain of code translation for high-performance computing. The dataset is accessible at https://github.com/bin123apple/Fortran-CPP-HPC-code-translation-dataset{OpenMP-Fortran-CPP-Translation}.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

Database knob tuning is a critical challenge in the database community, aiming to optimize knob values to enhance database performance for specific workloads. DBMS often feature hundreds of tunable knobs, posing a significant challenge for DBAs to recommend optimal configurations. Consequently, many machine learning-based tuning methods have been developed to automate this process. Despite the introduction of various optimizers, practical applications have unveiled a new problem: they typically require numerous workload runs to achieve satisfactory performance, a process that is both time-consuming and resource-intensive. This inefficiency largely stems from the optimal configuration often being substantially different from the default setting, necessitating multiple iterations during tuning. Recognizing this, we argue that an effective starting point could significantly reduce redundant exploration in less efficient areas, thereby potentially speeding up the tuning process for the optimizers. Based on this assumption, we introduce LLMTune, a large language model-based configuration generator designed to produce an initial, high-quality configuration for new workloads. These generated configurations can then serve as starting points for various base optimizers, accelerating their tuning processes. To obtain training data for LLMTune's supervised fine-tuning, we have devised a new automatic data generation framework capable of efficiently creating a large number of <workload, configuration> pairs. We have conducted thorough experiments to evaluate LLMTune's effectiveness with different workloads, such as TPC-H and JOB. In comparison to leading methods, LLMTune demonstrates a quicker ability to identify superior configurations. For instance, with the challenging TPC-H workload, our LLMTune achieves a significant 15.6x speed-up ratio in finding the best-performing configurations.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Machine unlearning -- efficiently removing the effect of a small "forget set" of training data on a pre-trained machine learning model -- has recently attracted significant research interest. Despite this interest, however, recent work shows that existing machine unlearning techniques do not hold up to thorough evaluation in non-convex settings. In this work, we introduce a new machine unlearning technique that exhibits strong empirical performance even in such challenging settings. Our starting point is the perspective that the goal of unlearning is to produce a model whose outputs are statistically indistinguishable from those of a model re-trained on all but the forget set. This perspective naturally suggests a reduction from the unlearning problem to that of data attribution, where the goal is to predict the effect of changing the training set on a model's outputs. Thus motivated, we propose the following meta-algorithm, which we call Datamodel Matching (DMM): given a trained model, we (a) use data attribution to predict the output of the model if it were re-trained on all but the forget set points; then (b) fine-tune the pre-trained model to match these predicted outputs. In a simple convex setting, we show how this approach provably outperforms a variety of iterative unlearning algorithms. Empirically, we use a combination of existing evaluations and a new metric based on the KL-divergence to show that even in non-convex settings, DMM achieves strong unlearning performance relative to existing algorithms. An added benefit of DMM is that it is a meta-algorithm, in the sense that future advances in data attribution translate directly into better unlearning algorithms, pointing to a clear direction for future progress in unlearning.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

There is a compelling necessity from enterprises for fine tuning LLMs (Large Language Models) o get them trained on proprietary domain knowledge. The challenge is to imbibe the LLMs with domain specific knowledge using the most optimial resource and cost and in the best possible time. Many enterprises rely on RAG (Retrieval Augmented Generation) which does not need LLMs to be ine-tuned but they are limited by the quality of vector databases and their retrieval capabilities rather than the intrinsic capabilities of the LLMs themselves. In our current work we focus on fine tuning LLaMA, an open source LLM using proprietary documents and code from an enterprise repository and use the fine tuned models to evaluate the quality of responses. As part of this work, we aim to guide beginners on how to start with fine tuning an LLM for documentation and code by making educated guesses on size of GPU required and options that are available for formatting the data. We also propose pre processing recipes for both documentation and code to prepare dataset in different formats. The proposed methods of data preparation for document datasets are forming paragraph chunks, forming question and answer pairs and forming keyword and paragraph chunk pairs. For code dataset we propose forming summary and function pairs. Further, we qualitatively evaluate the results of the models for domain specific queries. Finally, we also propose practical guidelines and recommendations for fine tuning LLMs.

Machine learning research has long focused on models rather than datasets, and prominent datasets are used for common ML tasks without regard to the breadth, difficulty, and faithfulness of the underlying problems. Neglecting the fundamental importance of data has given rise to inaccuracy, bias, and fragility in real-world applications, and research is hindered by saturation across existing dataset benchmarks. In response, we present DataPerf, a community-led benchmark suite for evaluating ML datasets and data-centric algorithms. We aim to foster innovation in data-centric AI through competition, comparability, and reproducibility. We enable the ML community to iterate on datasets, instead of just architectures, and we provide an open, online platform with multiple rounds of challenges to support this iterative development. The first iteration of DataPerf contains five benchmarks covering a wide spectrum of data-centric techniques, tasks, and modalities in vision, speech, acquisition, debugging, and diffusion prompting, and we support hosting new contributed benchmarks from the community. The benchmarks, online evaluation platform, and baseline implementations are open source, and the MLCommons Association will maintain DataPerf to ensure long-term benefits to academia and industry.

Parameter-efficient tuning (PET) methods can effectively drive extremely large pre-trained language models (PLMs) by only training minimal parameters. Different PET methods utilize different manually designed modules. In a small PLM, there are usually noticeable performance differences among PET methods. Nevertheless, when a PLM's scale grows up to tens of billions of parameters, all PET methods achieve almost the same performance and even perform on par with the full-parameter fine-tuning method. Hence, we hypothesize that model scaling can mitigate the design differences (the module structures and the number of trainable parameters) among PET methods. To study this hypothesis, we introduce a more flexible PET method - arbitrary PET (APET) method - to be compatible with arbitrary module structures and any number of trainable parameters. Then, we experiment on 11 NLP tasks of 5 types and 2 representative PLMs. From our investigations, we find that the model scaling (1) mitigates the effects of the arbitrary module structure on the performance of tuning methods, and (2) enables the tuning methods to optimize fewer parameters to achieve the full-parameter fine-tuning performance. Intriguingly, we also observe that all tuning methods require almost the same number of trainable parameters to drive PLMs. We discuss this phenomenon and the above two findings collectively from optimization perspectives to fathom the mechanisms behind them. These conclusions not only demonstrate the positive impact of model scaling on tuning methods but disclose its mechanisms, which help us design more effective and efficient tuning methods on larger-scale PLMs.

Selecting high-quality training data from a larger pool is a crucial step when instruction-tuning language models, as carefully curated datasets often produce models that outperform those trained on much larger, noisier datasets. Automated data selection approaches for instruction-tuning are typically tested by selecting small datasets (roughly 10k samples) from small pools (100-200k samples). However, popular deployed instruction-tuned models often train on hundreds of thousands to millions of samples, subsampled from even larger data pools. We present a systematic study of how well data selection methods scale to these settings, selecting up to 2.5M samples from pools of up to 5.8M samples and evaluating across 7 diverse tasks. We show that many recently proposed methods fall short of random selection in this setting (while using more compute), and even decline in performance when given access to larger pools of data to select over. However, we find that a variant of representation-based data selection (RDS+), which uses weighted mean pooling of pretrained LM hidden states, consistently outperforms more complex methods across all settings tested -- all whilst being more compute-efficient. Our findings highlight that the scaling properties of proposed automated selection methods should be more closely examined. We release our code, data, and models at https://github.com/hamishivi/automated-instruction-selection.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

The goal of predictive data attribution is to estimate how adding or removing a given set of training datapoints will affect model predictions. In convex settings, this goal is straightforward (i.e., via the infinitesimal jackknife). In large-scale (non-convex) settings, however, existing methods are far less successful -- current methods' estimates often only weakly correlate with ground truth. In this work, we present a new data attribution method (MAGIC) that combines classical methods and recent advances in metadifferentiation to (nearly) optimally estimate the effect of adding or removing training data on model predictions.

Advancements in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning have catalyzed the transformation of big data analytics and management into pivotal domains for research and application. This work explores the theoretical foundations, methodological advancements, and practical implementations of these technologies, emphasizing their role in uncovering actionable insights from massive, high-dimensional datasets. The study presents a systematic overview of data preprocessing techniques, including data cleaning, normalization, integration, and dimensionality reduction, to prepare raw data for analysis. Core analytics methodologies such as classification, clustering, regression, and anomaly detection are examined, with a focus on algorithmic innovation and scalability. Furthermore, the text delves into state-of-the-art frameworks for data mining and predictive modeling, highlighting the role of neural networks, support vector machines, and ensemble methods in tackling complex analytical challenges. Special emphasis is placed on the convergence of big data with distributed computing paradigms, including cloud and edge computing, to address challenges in storage, computation, and real-time analytics. The integration of ethical considerations, including data privacy and compliance with global standards, ensures a holistic perspective on data management. Practical applications across healthcare, finance, marketing, and policy-making illustrate the real-world impact of these technologies. Through comprehensive case studies and Python-based implementations, this work equips researchers, practitioners, and data enthusiasts with the tools to navigate the complexities of modern data analytics. It bridges the gap between theory and practice, fostering the development of innovative solutions for managing and leveraging data in the era of artificial intelligence.

The general capabilities of Large Language Models (LLM) highly rely on the composition and selection on extensive pretraining datasets, treated as commercial secrets by several institutions. To mitigate this issue, we open-source the details of a universally applicable data processing pipeline and validate its effectiveness and potential by introducing a competitive LLM baseline. Specifically, the data processing pipeline consists of broad collection to scale up and reweighting to improve quality. We then pretrain a 7B model BaichuanSEED with 3T tokens processed by our pipeline without any deliberate downstream task-related optimization, followed by an easy but effective supervised fine-tuning stage. BaichuanSEED demonstrates consistency and predictability throughout training and achieves comparable performance on comprehensive benchmarks with several commercial advanced large language models, such as Qwen1.5 and Llama3. We also conduct several heuristic experiments to discuss the potential for further optimization of downstream tasks, such as mathematics and coding.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly increasing in size, with the number of parameters becoming a key factor in the success of many commercial models, such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Bard. Even the recently released publicly accessible models for commercial usage, such as Falcon and Llama2, come equipped with billions of parameters. This significant increase in the number of parameters makes deployment and operation very costly. The remarkable progress in the field of quantization for large neural networks in general and LLMs in particular, has made these models more accessible by enabling them to be deployed on consumer-grade GPUs. Quantized models generally demonstrate comparable performance levels to their unquantized base counterparts. Nonetheless, there exists a notable gap in our comprehensive understanding of how these quantized models respond to hyperparameters, such as temperature, max new tokens, and topk, particularly for next word prediction. The present analysis reveals that nf4 and fp4 are equally proficient 4-bit quantization techniques, characterized by similar attributes such as inference speed, memory consumption, and the quality of generated content. the study identifies nf4 as displaying greater resilience to temperature variations in the case of the llama2 series of models at lower temperature, while fp4 and fp4-dq proves to be a more suitable choice for falcon series of models. It is noteworthy that, in general, 4-bit quantized models of varying sizes exhibit higher sensitivity to temperature in the range of 0.5 to 0.8, unlike their unquantized counterparts. Additionally, int8 quantization is associated with significantly slower inference speeds, whereas unquantized bfloat16 models consistently yield the fastest inference speeds across models of all sizes.

Deep learning has been successful in automating the design of features in machine learning pipelines. However, the algorithms optimizing neural network parameters remain largely hand-designed and computationally inefficient. We study if we can use deep learning to directly predict these parameters by exploiting the past knowledge of training other networks. We introduce a large-scale dataset of diverse computational graphs of neural architectures - DeepNets-1M - and use it to explore parameter prediction on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. By leveraging advances in graph neural networks, we propose a hypernetwork that can predict performant parameters in a single forward pass taking a fraction of a second, even on a CPU. The proposed model achieves surprisingly good performance on unseen and diverse networks. For example, it is able to predict all 24 million parameters of a ResNet-50 achieving a 60% accuracy on CIFAR-10. On ImageNet, top-5 accuracy of some of our networks approaches 50%. Our task along with the model and results can potentially lead to a new, more computationally efficient paradigm of training networks. Our model also learns a strong representation of neural architectures enabling their analysis.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

While large language models have rapidly evolved towards general artificial intelligence, their versatility in analyzing time series data remains limited. To address this limitation, we propose a novel normalization technique that considers the inherent nature of tokenization. The proposed Tokenization-Optimized Normalization (TOKON) simplifies time series data by representing each element with a single token, effectively reducing the number of tokens by 2 to 3 times. Additionally, we introduce a novel prompt for time series forecasting, termed Time Series Forecasting with Care (TFSC), to further enhance forecasting performance. Experimental results demonstrate that TOKON improves root mean square error (RMSE) for multi-step forecasting by approximately 7% to 18%, depending on the dataset and prompting method. Furthermore, TFSC, when used in conjunction with TOKON, shows additional improvements in forecasting accuracy for certain datasets

Deep learning models achieve state-of-the art results in predicting blood glucose trajectories, with a wide range of architectures being proposed. However, the adaptation of such models in clinical practice is slow, largely due to the lack of uncertainty quantification of provided predictions. In this work, we propose to model the future glucose trajectory conditioned on the past as an infinite mixture of basis distributions (i.e., Gaussian, Laplace, etc.). This change allows us to learn the uncertainty and predict more accurately in the cases when the trajectory has a heterogeneous or multi-modal distribution. To estimate the parameters of the predictive distribution, we utilize the Transformer architecture. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of our method over existing state-of-the-art techniques both in terms of accuracy and uncertainty on the synthetic and benchmark glucose data sets.

Pre-training foundation models on large-scale datasets demonstrates exceptional performance. However, recent research questions this traditional notion, exploring whether an increase in pre-training data always leads to enhanced model performance. To address this issue, data-effective learning approaches have been introduced. However, current methods in this area lack a clear standard for sample selection. Our experiments reveal that by maximizing V-information, sample selection can be framed as an optimization problem, enabling effective improvement in model performance even with fewer samples. Under this guidance, we develop an optimal data-effective learning method (OptiDEL) to maximize V-information. The OptiDEL method generates hard samples to achieve or even exceed the performance of models trained on the full dataset while using substantially less data. We compare the OptiDEL method with state-of-the-art approaches finding that OptiDEL consistently outperforms existing approaches across different datasets, with foundation models trained on only 5% of the pre-training data surpassing the performance of those trained on the full dataset.

Continual learning with an increasing number of classes is a challenging task. The difficulty rises when each example is presented exactly once, which requires the model to learn online. Recent methods with classic parameter optimization procedures have been shown to struggle in such setups or have limitations like non-differentiable components or memory buffers. For this reason, we present the fully differentiable ensemble method that allows us to efficiently train an ensemble of neural networks in the end-to-end regime. The proposed technique achieves SOTA results without a memory buffer and clearly outperforms the reference methods. The conducted experiments have also shown a significant increase in the performance for small ensembles, which demonstrates the capability of obtaining relatively high classification accuracy with a reduced number of classifiers.

Offline optimization has recently emerged as an increasingly popular approach to mitigate the prohibitively expensive cost of online experimentation. The key idea is to learn a surrogate of the black-box function that underlines the target experiment using a static (offline) dataset of its previous input-output queries. Such an approach is, however, fraught with an out-of-distribution issue where the learned surrogate becomes inaccurate outside the offline data regimes. To mitigate this, existing offline optimizers have proposed numerous conditioning techniques to prevent the learned surrogate from being too erratic. Nonetheless, such conditioning strategies are often specific to particular surrogate or search models, which might not generalize to a different model choice. This motivates us to develop a model-agnostic approach instead, which incorporates a notion of model sharpness into the training loss of the surrogate as a regularizer. Our approach is supported by a new theoretical analysis demonstrating that reducing surrogate sharpness on the offline dataset provably reduces its generalized sharpness on unseen data. Our analysis extends existing theories from bounding generalized prediction loss (on unseen data) with loss sharpness to bounding the worst-case generalized surrogate sharpness with its empirical estimate on training data, providing a new perspective on sharpness regularization. Our extensive experimentation on a diverse range of optimization tasks also shows that reducing surrogate sharpness often leads to significant improvement, marking (up to) a noticeable 9.6% performance boost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/IGNITE

In this paper, we present MusPy, an open source Python library for symbolic music generation. MusPy provides easy-to-use tools for essential components in a music generation system, including dataset management, data I/O, data preprocessing and model evaluation. In order to showcase its potential, we present statistical analysis of the eleven datasets currently supported by MusPy. Moreover, we conduct a cross-dataset generalizability experiment by training an autoregressive model on each dataset and measuring held-out likelihood on the others---a process which is made easier by MusPy's dataset management system. The results provide a map of domain overlap between various commonly used datasets and show that some datasets contain more representative cross-genre samples than others. Along with the dataset analysis, these results might serve as a guide for choosing datasets in future research. Source code and documentation are available at https://github.com/salu133445/muspy .

Recent advancements in Large Language Models have transformed ML/AI development, necessitating a reevaluation of AutoML principles for the Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. To address the challenges of hyper-parameter optimization and online adaptation in RAG, we propose the AutoRAG-HP framework, which formulates the hyper-parameter tuning as an online multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem and introduces a novel two-level Hierarchical MAB (Hier-MAB) method for efficient exploration of large search spaces. We conduct extensive experiments on tuning hyper-parameters, such as top-k retrieved documents, prompt compression ratio, and embedding methods, using the ALCE-ASQA and Natural Questions datasets. Our evaluation from jointly optimization all three hyper-parameters demonstrate that MAB-based online learning methods can achieve Recall@5 approx 0.8 for scenarios with prominent gradients in search space, using only sim20% of the LLM API calls required by the Grid Search approach. Additionally, the proposed Hier-MAB approach outperforms other baselines in more challenging optimization scenarios. The code will be made available at https://aka.ms/autorag.

Adapting large-scale pretrained language models to downstream tasks via fine-tuning is the standard method for achieving state-of-the-art performance on NLP benchmarks. However, fine-tuning all weights of models with millions or billions of parameters is sample-inefficient, unstable in low-resource settings, and wasteful as it requires storing a separate copy of the model for each task. Recent work has developed parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods, but these approaches either still require a relatively large number of parameters or underperform standard fine-tuning. In this work, we propose Compacter, a method for fine-tuning large-scale language models with a better trade-off between task performance and the number of trainable parameters than prior work. Compacter accomplishes this by building on top of ideas from adapters, low-rank optimization, and parameterized hypercomplex multiplication layers. Specifically, Compacter inserts task-specific weight matrices into a pretrained model's weights, which are computed efficiently as a sum of Kronecker products between shared "slow" weights and "fast" rank-one matrices defined per Compacter layer. By only training 0.047% of a pretrained model's parameters, Compacter performs on par with standard fine-tuning on GLUE and outperforms standard fine-tuning on SuperGLUE and low-resource settings. Our code is publicly available at~https://github.com/rabeehk/compacter.

Large language models (LLMs) have made remarkable advances in recent years, with scaling laws playing a critical role in this rapid progress. In this paper, we empirically investigate how a critical hyper-parameter, i.e., the global batch size, influences the LLM training prdocess. We begin by training language models ranging from 125 million to 2.6 billion parameters, using up to 300 billion high-quality tokens. Through these experiments, we establish a basic scaling law on model size and training data amount. We then examine how varying batch sizes and learning rates affect the convergence and generalization of these models. Our analysis yields batch size scaling laws under two different cases: with a fixed compute budget, and with a fixed amount of training data. Extrapolation experiments on models of increasing sizes validate our predicted laws, which provides guidance for optimizing LLM training strategies under specific resource constraints.

Quantifying the impact of training data points is crucial for understanding the outputs of machine learning models and for improving the transparency of the AI pipeline. The influence function is a principled and popular data attribution method, but its computational cost often makes it challenging to use. This issue becomes more pronounced in the setting of large language models and text-to-image models. In this work, we propose DataInf, an efficient influence approximation method that is practical for large-scale generative AI models. Leveraging an easy-to-compute closed-form expression, DataInf outperforms existing influence computation algorithms in terms of computational and memory efficiency. Our theoretical analysis shows that DataInf is particularly well-suited for parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques such as LoRA. Through systematic empirical evaluations, we show that DataInf accurately approximates influence scores and is orders of magnitude faster than existing methods. In applications to RoBERTa-large, Llama-2-13B-chat, and stable-diffusion-v1.5 models, DataInf effectively identifies the most influential fine-tuning examples better than other approximate influence scores. Moreover, it can help to identify which data points are mislabeled.

Selecting a suitable training dataset is crucial for both general-domain (e.g., GPT-3) and domain-specific (e.g., Codex) language models (LMs). We formalize this data selection problem as selecting a subset of a large raw unlabeled dataset to match a desired target distribution, given some unlabeled target samples. Due to the large scale and dimensionality of the raw text data, existing methods use simple heuristics to select data that are similar to a high-quality reference corpus (e.g., Wikipedia), or leverage experts to manually curate data. Instead, we extend the classic importance resampling approach used in low-dimensions for LM data selection. Crucially, we work in a reduced feature space to make importance weight estimation tractable over the space of text. To determine an appropriate feature space, we first show that KL reduction, a data metric that measures the proximity between selected data and the target in a feature space, has high correlation with average accuracy on 8 downstream tasks (r=0.89) when computed with simple n-gram features. From this observation, we present Data Selection with Importance Resampling (DSIR), an efficient and scalable algorithm that estimates importance weights in a reduced feature space (e.g., n-gram features in our instantiation) and selects data with importance resampling according to these weights. When training general-domain models (target is Wikipedia + books), DSIR improves over random selection and heuristic filtering baselines by 2--2.5% on the GLUE benchmark. When performing continued pretraining towards a specific domain, DSIR performs comparably to expert curated data across 8 target distributions.

Due to the cost of developing and training deep learning models from scratch, machine learning engineers have begun to reuse pre-trained models (PTMs) and fine-tune them for downstream tasks. PTM registries known as "model hubs" support engineers in distributing and reusing deep learning models. PTM packages include pre-trained weights, documentation, model architectures, datasets, and metadata. Mining the information in PTM packages will enable the discovery of engineering phenomena and tools to support software engineers. However, accessing this information is difficult - there are many PTM registries, and both the registries and the individual packages may have rate limiting for accessing the data. We present an open-source dataset, PTMTorrent, to facilitate the evaluation and understanding of PTM packages. This paper describes the creation, structure, usage, and limitations of the dataset. The dataset includes a snapshot of 5 model hubs and a total of 15,913 PTM packages. These packages are represented in a uniform data schema for cross-hub mining. We describe prior uses of this data and suggest research opportunities for mining using our dataset. The PTMTorrent dataset (v1) is available at: https://app.globus.org/file-manager?origin_id=55e17a6e-9d8f-11ed-a2a2-8383522b48d9&origin_path=%2F~%2F. Our dataset generation tools are available on GitHub: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7570357.

Given an unconditional diffusion model and a predictor for a target property of interest (e.g., a classifier), the goal of training-free guidance is to generate samples with desirable target properties without additional training. Existing methods, though effective in various individual applications, often lack theoretical grounding and rigorous testing on extensive benchmarks. As a result, they could even fail on simple tasks, and applying them to a new problem becomes unavoidably difficult. This paper introduces a novel algorithmic framework encompassing existing methods as special cases, unifying the study of training-free guidance into the analysis of an algorithm-agnostic design space. Via theoretical and empirical investigation, we propose an efficient and effective hyper-parameter searching strategy that can be readily applied to any downstream task. We systematically benchmark across 7 diffusion models on 16 tasks with 40 targets, and improve performance by 8.5% on average. Our framework and benchmark offer a solid foundation for conditional generation in a training-free manner.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

A key step in reverse engineering neural networks is to decompose them into simpler parts that can be studied in relative isolation. Linear parameter decomposition -- a framework that has been proposed to resolve several issues with current decomposition methods -- decomposes neural network parameters into a sum of sparsely used vectors in parameter space. However, the current main method in this framework, Attribution-based Parameter Decomposition (APD), is impractical on account of its computational cost and sensitivity to hyperparameters. In this work, we introduce Stochastic Parameter Decomposition (SPD), a method that is more scalable and robust to hyperparameters than APD, which we demonstrate by decomposing models that are slightly larger and more complex than was possible to decompose with APD. We also show that SPD avoids other issues, such as shrinkage of the learned parameters, and better identifies ground truth mechanisms in toy models. By bridging causal mediation analysis and network decomposition methods, this demonstration opens up new research possibilities in mechanistic interpretability by removing barriers to scaling linear parameter decomposition methods to larger models. We release a library for running SPD and reproducing our experiments at https://github.com/goodfire-ai/spd.

Pretraining datasets for large language models (LLMs) have grown to trillions of tokens composed of large amounts of CommonCrawl (CC) web scrape along with smaller, domain-specific datasets. It is expensive to understand the impact of these domain-specific datasets on model capabilities as training at large FLOP scales is required to reveal significant changes to difficult and emergent benchmarks. Given the increasing cost of experimenting with pretraining data, how does one determine the optimal balance between the diversity in general web scrapes and the information density of domain specific data? In this work, we show how to leverage the smaller domain specific datasets by upsampling them relative to CC at the end of training to drive performance improvements on difficult benchmarks. This simple technique allows us to improve up to 6.90 pp on MMLU, 8.26 pp on GSM8K, and 6.17 pp on HumanEval relative to the base data mix for a 7B model trained for 1 trillion (T) tokens, thus rivaling Llama-2 (7B)x2014a model trained for twice as long. We experiment with ablating the duration of domain upsampling from 5% to 30% of training and find that 10% to 20% percent is optimal for navigating the tradeoff between general language modeling capabilities and targeted benchmarks. We also use domain upsampling to characterize at scale the utility of individual datasets for improving various benchmarks by removing them during this final phase of training. This tool opens up the ability to experiment with the impact of different pretraining datasets at scale, but at an order of magnitude lower cost compared to full pretraining runs.

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

Learned Iterative Shrinkage-Thresholding Algorithm (LISTA) introduces the concept of unrolling an iterative algorithm and training it like a neural network. It has had great success on sparse recovery. In this paper, we show that adding momentum to intermediate variables in the LISTA network achieves a better convergence rate and, in particular, the network with instance-optimal parameters is superlinearly convergent. Moreover, our new theoretical results lead to a practical approach of automatically and adaptively calculating the parameters of a LISTA network layer based on its previous layers. Perhaps most surprisingly, such an adaptive-parameter procedure reduces the training of LISTA to tuning only three hyperparameters from data: a new record set in the context of the recent advances on trimming down LISTA complexity. We call this new ultra-light weight network HyperLISTA. Compared to state-of-the-art LISTA models, HyperLISTA achieves almost the same performance on seen data distributions and performs better when tested on unseen distributions (specifically, those with different sparsity levels and nonzero magnitudes). Code is available: https://github.com/VITA-Group/HyperLISTA.

Large Language Models (LLMs) with Mixture of Experts (MoE) architectures achieve remarkable performance improvements, but their random expert selection mechanism introduces significant data movement overhead that becomes the dominant bottleneck in multi-unit serving systems. To forecast the patterns underlying this data movement, we conduct comprehensive data-movement-centric profiling across three state-of-the-art large-scale MoE models (200B- 671B) using over 24,000 requests spanning diverse workloads. With the resulting 150GB+ trace files, we perform systematic analysis from both temporal and spatial perspectives and distill six key insights to guide the design of diverse future serving systems. Taking wafer-scale GPUs as a case study, we demonstrate that minor architectural modifications leveraging our insights achieve substantial performance gains, delivering 6.3X and 4.0X average speedups on DeepSeek V3 and Qwen3, respectively. Our work provides the first comprehensive data-centric analysis of MoE models at scale. Our profiling traces and analysis results are publicly available at {https://huggingface.co/datasets/core12345/MoE_expert_selection_trace. We will also release our simulation framework shortly to facilitate future research in this area.

We introduce the Bittensor Language Model, called "BTLM-3B-8K", a new state-of-the-art 3 billion parameter open-source language model. BTLM-3B-8K was trained on 627B tokens from the SlimPajama dataset with a mixture of 2,048 and 8,192 context lengths. BTLM-3B-8K outperforms all existing 3B parameter models by 2-5.5% across downstream tasks. BTLM-3B-8K is even competitive with some 7B parameter models. Additionally, BTLM-3B-8K provides excellent long context performance, outperforming MPT-7B-8K and XGen-7B-8K on tasks up to 8,192 context length. We trained the model on a cleaned and deduplicated SlimPajama dataset; aggressively tuned the \textmu P hyperparameters and schedule; used ALiBi position embeddings; and adopted the SwiGLU nonlinearity. On Hugging Face, the most popular models have 7B parameters, indicating that users prefer the quality-size ratio of 7B models. Compacting the 7B parameter model to one with 3B parameters, with little performance impact, is an important milestone. BTLM-3B-8K needs only 3GB of memory with 4-bit precision and takes 2.5x less inference compute than 7B models, helping to open up access to a powerful language model on mobile and edge devices. BTLM-3B-8K is available under an Apache 2.0 license on Hugging Face: https://huggingface.co/cerebras/btlm-3b-8k-base.

Selecting high-quality data for pre-training is crucial in shaping the downstream task performance of language models. A major challenge lies in identifying this optimal subset, a problem generally considered intractable, thus necessitating scalable and effective heuristics. In this work, we propose a data selection method, CoLoR-Filter (Conditional Loss Reduction Filtering), which leverages an empirical Bayes-inspired approach to derive a simple and computationally efficient selection criterion based on the relative loss values of two auxiliary models. In addition to the modeling rationale, we evaluate CoLoR-Filter empirically on two language modeling tasks: (1) selecting data from C4 for domain adaptation to evaluation on Books and (2) selecting data from C4 for a suite of downstream multiple-choice question answering tasks. We demonstrate favorable scaling both as we subselect more aggressively and using small auxiliary models to select data for large target models. As one headline result, CoLoR-Filter data selected using a pair of 150m parameter auxiliary models can train a 1.2b parameter target model to match a 1.2b parameter model trained on 25b randomly selected tokens with 25x less data for Books and 11x less data for the downstream tasks. Code: https://github.com/davidbrandfonbrener/color-filter-olmo Filtered data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/davidbrandfonbrener/color-filtered-c4

Normalising Flows are non-parametric statistical models characterised by their dual capabilities of density estimation and generation. This duality requires an inherently invertible architecture. However, the requirement of invertibility imposes constraints on their expressiveness, necessitating a large number of parameters and innovative architectural designs to achieve good results. Whilst flow-based models predominantly rely on neural-network-based transformations for expressive designs, alternative transformation methods have received limited attention. In this work, we present Ferumal flow, a novel kernelised normalising flow paradigm that integrates kernels into the framework. Our results demonstrate that a kernelised flow can yield competitive or superior results compared to neural network-based flows whilst maintaining parameter efficiency. Kernelised flows excel especially in the low-data regime, enabling flexible non-parametric density estimation in applications with sparse data availability.

We classify and re-examine some of the current approaches to improve the performance-computes trade-off of language models, including (1) non-causal models (such as masked language models), (2) extension of batch length with efficient attention, (3) recurrence, (4) conditional computation and (5) retrieval. We identify some limitations (1) - (4) suffer from. For example, (1) currently struggles with open-ended text generation with the output loosely constrained by the input as well as performing general textual tasks like GPT-2/3 due to its need for a specific fine-tuning dataset. (2) and (3) do not improve the prediction of the first sim 10^3 tokens. Scaling up a model size (e.g. efficiently with (4)) still results in poor performance scaling for some tasks. We argue (5) would resolve many of these limitations, and it can (a) reduce the amount of supervision and (b) efficiently extend the context over the entire training dataset and the entire past of the current sample. We speculate how to modify MARGE to perform unsupervised causal modeling that achieves (b) with the retriever jointly trained.

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent preprocessing, such as mean-centering, rescaling, dimensionality reduction, and outlier removal. It is often believed that such preprocessing stages, if done in an unsupervised manner (that does not incorporate the class labels or response values) are generally safe to do prior to cross-validation. In this paper, we study three commonly-practiced preprocessing procedures prior to a regression analysis: (i) variance-based feature selection; (ii) grouping of rare categorical features; and (iii) feature rescaling. We demonstrate that unsupervised preprocessing can, in fact, introduce a substantial bias into cross-validation estimates and potentially hurt model selection. This bias may be either positive or negative and its exact magnitude depends on all the parameters of the problem in an intricate manner. Further research is needed to understand the real-world impact of this bias across different application domains, particularly when dealing with small sample sizes and high-dimensional data.