Daily Papers

We consider a combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem for maximum value reward function under maximum value and index feedback. This is a new feedback structure that lies in between commonly studied semi-bandit and full-bandit feedback structures. We propose an algorithm and provide a regret bound for problem instances with stochastic arm outcomes according to arbitrary distributions with finite supports. The regret analysis rests on considering an extended set of arms, associated with values and probabilities of arm outcomes, and applying a smoothness condition. Our algorithm achieves a O((k/Delta)log(T)) distribution-dependent and a O(T) distribution-independent regret where k is the number of arms selected in each round, Delta is a distribution-dependent reward gap and T is the horizon time. Perhaps surprisingly, the regret bound is comparable to previously-known bound under more informative semi-bandit feedback. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm through experimental results.

Uncertainty in perception, actuation, and the environment often require multiple attempts for a robotic task to be successful. We study a class of problems providing (1) low-entropy indicators of terminal success / failure, and (2) unreliable (high-entropy) data to predict the final outcome of an ongoing task. Examples include a robot trying to connect with a charging station, parallel parking, or assembling a tightly-fitting part. The ability to restart after predicting failure early, versus simply running to failure, can significantly decrease the makespan, that is, the total time to completion, with the drawback of potentially short-cutting an otherwise successful operation. Assuming task running times to be Poisson distributed, and using a Markov Jump process to capture the dynamics of the underlying Markov Decision Process, we derive a closed form solution that predicts makespan based on the confusion matrix of the failure predictor. This allows the robot to learn failure prediction in a production environment, and only adopt a preemptive policy when it actually saves time. We demonstrate this approach using a robotic peg-in-hole assembly problem using a real robotic system. Failures are predicted by a dilated convolutional network based on force-torque data, showing an average makespan reduction from 101s to 81s (N=120, p<0.05). We posit that the proposed algorithm generalizes to any robotic behavior with an unambiguous terminal reward, with wide ranging applications on how robots can learn and improve their behaviors in the wild.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

We consider a contextual combinatorial bandit problem where in each round a learning agent selects a subset of arms and receives feedback on the selected arms according to their scores. The score of an arm is an unknown function of the arm's feature. Approximating this unknown score function with deep neural networks, we propose algorithms: Combinatorial Neural UCB (CN-UCB) and Combinatorial Neural Thompson Sampling (CN-TS). We prove that CN-UCB achieves mathcal{O}(d T) or mathcal{O}(tilde{d T K}) regret, where d is the effective dimension of a neural tangent kernel matrix, K is the size of a subset of arms, and T is the time horizon. For CN-TS, we adapt an optimistic sampling technique to ensure the optimism of the sampled combinatorial action, achieving a worst-case (frequentist) regret of mathcal{O}(d TK). To the best of our knowledge, these are the first combinatorial neural bandit algorithms with regret performance guarantees. In particular, CN-TS is the first Thompson sampling algorithm with the worst-case regret guarantees for the general contextual combinatorial bandit problem. The numerical experiments demonstrate the superior performances of our proposed algorithms.

We give a new algorithm for best arm identification in linearly parameterised bandits in the fixed confidence setting. The algorithm generalises the well-known LUCB algorithm of Kalyanakrishnan et al. (2012) by playing an arm which minimises a suitable notion of geometric overlap of the statistical confidence set for the unknown parameter, and is fully adaptive and computationally efficient as compared to several state-of-the methods. We theoretically analyse the sample complexity of the algorithm for problems with two and three arms, showing optimality in many cases. Numerical results indicate favourable performance over other algorithms with which we compare.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

We consider the combinatorial bandits problem with semi-bandit feedback under finite sampling budget constraints, in which the learner can carry out its action only for a limited number of times specified by an overall budget. The action is to choose a set of arms, whereupon feedback for each arm in the chosen set is received. Unlike existing works, we study this problem in a non-stochastic setting with subset-dependent feedback, i.e., the semi-bandit feedback received could be generated by an oblivious adversary and also might depend on the chosen set of arms. In addition, we consider a general feedback scenario covering both the numerical-based as well as preference-based case and introduce a sound theoretical framework for this setting guaranteeing sensible notions of optimal arms, which a learner seeks to find. We suggest a generic algorithm suitable to cover the full spectrum of conceivable arm elimination strategies from aggressive to conservative. Theoretical questions about the sufficient and necessary budget of the algorithm to find the best arm are answered and complemented by deriving lower bounds for any learning algorithm for this problem scenario.

Simple regret is a natural and parameter-free performance criterion for pure exploration in multi-armed bandits yet is less popular than the probability of missing the best arm or an epsilon-good arm, perhaps due to lack of easy ways to characterize it. In this paper, we make significant progress on minimizing simple regret in both data-rich (Tge n) and data-poor regime (T le n) where n is the number of arms, and T is the number of samples. At its heart is our improved instance-dependent analysis of the well-known Sequential Halving (SH) algorithm, where we bound the probability of returning an arm whose mean reward is not within epsilon from the best (i.e., not epsilon-good) for any choice of epsilon>0, although epsilon is not an input to SH. Our bound not only leads to an optimal worst-case simple regret bound of n/T up to logarithmic factors but also essentially matches the instance-dependent lower bound for returning an epsilon-good arm reported by Katz-Samuels and Jamieson (2020). For the more challenging data-poor regime, we propose Bracketing SH (BSH) that enjoys the same improvement even without sampling each arm at least once. Our empirical study shows that BSH outperforms existing methods on real-world tasks.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

In this paper, we study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the objective of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance tau. Starting with multi-arm bandits (MABs), we show the minimax CVaR regret rate is Omega(tau^{-1AK}), where A is the number of actions and K is the number of episodes, and that it is achieved by an Upper Confidence Bound algorithm with a novel Bernstein bonus. For online RL in tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), we show a minimax regret lower bound of Omega(tau^{-1SAK}) (with normalized cumulative rewards), where S is the number of states, and we propose a novel bonus-driven Value Iteration procedure. We show that our algorithm achieves the optimal regret of widetilde O(tau^{-1SAK}) under a continuity assumption and in general attains a near-optimal regret of widetilde O(tau^{-1}SAK), which is minimax-optimal for constant tau. This improves on the best available bounds. By discretizing rewards appropriately, our algorithms are computationally efficient.

We study a strategic variant of the multi-armed bandit problem, which we coin the strategic click-bandit. This model is motivated by applications in online recommendation where the choice of recommended items depends on both the click-through rates and the post-click rewards. Like in classical bandits, rewards follow a fixed unknown distribution. However, we assume that the click-rate of each arm is chosen strategically by the arm (e.g., a host on Airbnb) in order to maximize the number of times it gets clicked. The algorithm designer does not know the post-click rewards nor the arms' actions (i.e., strategically chosen click-rates) in advance, and must learn both values over time. To solve this problem, we design an incentive-aware learning algorithm, UCB-S, which achieves two goals simultaneously: (a) incentivizing desirable arm behavior under uncertainty; (b) minimizing regret by learning unknown parameters. We characterize all approximate Nash equilibria among arms under UCB-S and show a mathcal{O} (KT) regret bound uniformly in every equilibrium. We also show that incentive-unaware algorithms generally fail to achieve low regret in the strategic click-bandit. Finally, we support our theoretical results by simulations of strategic arm behavior which confirm the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed incentive design.

Incorporating a robotic manipulator into a wheel-legged robot enhances its agility and expands its potential for practical applications. However, the presence of potential instability and uncertainties presents additional challenges for control objectives. In this paper, we introduce an arm-constrained curriculum learning architecture to tackle the issues introduced by adding the manipulator. Firstly, we develop an arm-constrained reinforcement learning algorithm to ensure safety and stability in control performance. Additionally, to address discrepancies in reward settings between the arm and the base, we propose a reward-aware curriculum learning method. The policy is first trained in Isaac gym and transferred to the physical robot to do dynamic grasping tasks, including the door-opening task, fan-twitching task and the relay-baton-picking and following task. The results demonstrate that our proposed approach effectively controls the arm-equipped wheel-legged robot to master dynamic grasping skills, allowing it to chase and catch a moving object while in motion. Please refer to our website (https://acodedog.github.io/wheel-legged-loco-manipulation) for the code and supplemental videos.

Competitions for shareable and limited resources have long been studied with strategic agents. In reality, agents often have to learn and maximize the rewards of the resources at the same time. To design an individualized competing policy, we model the competition between agents in a novel multi-player multi-armed bandit (MPMAB) setting where players are selfish and aim to maximize their own rewards. In addition, when several players pull the same arm, we assume that these players averagely share the arms' rewards by expectation. Under this setting, we first analyze the Nash equilibrium when arms' rewards are known. Subsequently, we propose a novel SelfishMPMAB with Averaging Allocation (SMAA) approach based on the equilibrium. We theoretically demonstrate that SMAA could achieve a good regret guarantee for each player when all players follow the algorithm. Additionally, we establish that no single selfish player can significantly increase their rewards through deviation, nor can they detrimentally affect other players' rewards without incurring substantial losses for themselves. We finally validate the effectiveness of the method in extensive synthetic experiments.

Dexterous grasping is a fundamental yet challenging skill in robotic manipulation, requiring precise interaction between robotic hands and objects. In this paper, we present D(R,O) Grasp, a novel framework that models the interaction between the robotic hand in its grasping pose and the object, enabling broad generalization across various robot hands and object geometries. Our model takes the robot hand's description and object point cloud as inputs and efficiently predicts kinematically valid and stable grasps, demonstrating strong adaptability to diverse robot embodiments and object geometries. Extensive experiments conducted in both simulated and real-world environments validate the effectiveness of our approach, with significant improvements in success rate, grasp diversity, and inference speed across multiple robotic hands. Our method achieves an average success rate of 87.53% in simulation in less than one second, tested across three different dexterous robotic hands. In real-world experiments using the LeapHand, the method also demonstrates an average success rate of 89%. D(R,O) Grasp provides a robust solution for dexterous grasping in complex and varied environments. The code, appendix, and videos are available on our project website at https://nus-lins-lab.github.io/drograspweb/.

There has been increasing interest in modeling survival data using deep learning methods in medical research. In this paper, we proposed a Bayesian hierarchical deep neural networks model for modeling and prediction of survival data. Compared with previously studied methods, the new proposal can provide not only point estimate of survival probability but also quantification of the corresponding uncertainty, which can be of crucial importance in predictive modeling and subsequent decision making. The favorable statistical properties of point and uncertainty estimates were demonstrated by simulation studies and real data analysis. The Python code implementing the proposed approach was provided.

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as a replacement of the primary outcome i.e., in using the surrogate outcome, which can potentially be observed sooner, to make inference about the treatment effect on the long-term primary outcome. Very few of the available statistical methods to evaluate a surrogate are applicable to settings where both the surrogate and the primary outcome are time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. Methods that can handle this setting tend to require parametric assumptions or be limited to assessing only the restricted mean survival time. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approach to evaluate a censored surrogate outcome, such as time to progression, when the primary outcome is also a censored time-to-event outcome, such as time to death, and the treatment effect of interest is the difference in overall survival. Specifically, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained (PTE) by the censored surrogate outcome in this context, and estimate this proportion by defining and deriving an optimal transformation of the surrogate information. Our approach provides the added advantage of relaxed assumptions to guarantee that the true PTE is within (0,1), along with being model-free. Finite sample performance of our estimators are illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a real data application examining progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

Despite advancements in rehabilitation protocols, clinical assessment of upper extremity (UE) function after stroke largely remains subjective, relying heavily on therapist observation and coarse scoring systems. This subjectivity limits the sensitivity of assessments to detect subtle motor improvements, which are critical for personalized rehabilitation planning. Recent progress in computer vision offers promising avenues for enabling objective, quantitative, and scalable assessment of UE motor function. Among standardized tests, the Box and Block Test (BBT) is widely utilized for measuring gross manual dexterity and tracking stroke recovery, providing a structured setting that lends itself well to computational analysis. However, existing datasets targeting stroke rehabilitation primarily focus on daily living activities and often fail to capture clinically structured assessments such as block transfer tasks. Furthermore, many available datasets include a mixture of healthy and stroke-affected individuals, limiting their specificity and clinical utility. To address these critical gaps, we introduce StrokeVision-Bench, the first-ever dedicated dataset of stroke patients performing clinically structured block transfer tasks. StrokeVision-Bench comprises 1,000 annotated videos categorized into four clinically meaningful action classes, with each sample represented in two modalities: raw video frames and 2D skeletal keypoints. We benchmark several state-of-the-art video action recognition and skeleton-based action classification methods to establish performance baselines for this domain and facilitate future research in automated stroke rehabilitation assessment.

We develop a variant of the stochastic prox-linear method for minimizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective. CVaR is a risk measure focused on minimizing worst-case performance, defined as the average of the top quantile of the losses. In machine learning, such a risk measure is useful to train more robust models. Although the stochastic subgradient method (SGM) is a natural choice for minimizing the CVaR objective, we show that our stochastic prox-linear (SPL+) algorithm can better exploit the structure of the objective, while still providing a convenient closed form update. Our SPL+ method also adapts to the scaling of the loss function, which allows for easier tuning. We then specialize a general convergence theorem for SPL+ to our setting, and show that it allows for a wider selection of step sizes compared to SGM. We support this theoretical finding experimentally.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

This paper introduces ByteWrist, a novel highly-flexible and anthropomorphic parallel wrist for robotic manipulation. ByteWrist addresses the critical limitations of existing serial and parallel wrists in narrow-space operations through a compact three-stage parallel drive mechanism integrated with arc-shaped end linkages. The design achieves precise RPY (Roll-Pitch-Yaw) motion while maintaining exceptional compactness, making it particularly suitable for complex unstructured environments such as home services, medical assistance, and precision assembly. The key innovations include: (1) a nested three-stage motor-driven linkages that minimize volume while enabling independent multi-DOF control, (2) arc-shaped end linkages that optimize force transmission and expand motion range, and (3) a central supporting ball functioning as a spherical joint that enhances structural stiffness without compromising flexibility. Meanwhile, we present comprehensive kinematic modeling including forward / inverse kinematics and a numerical Jacobian solution for precise control. Empirically, we observe ByteWrist demonstrates strong performance in narrow-space maneuverability and dual-arm cooperative manipulation tasks, outperforming Kinova-based systems. Results indicate significant improvements in compactness, efficiency, and stiffness compared to traditional designs, establishing ByteWrist as a promising solution for next-generation robotic manipulation in constrained environments.

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

For robotic manipulation, existing robotics datasets and simulation benchmarks predominantly cater to robot-arm platforms. However, for humanoid robots equipped with dual arms and dexterous hands, simulation tasks and high-quality demonstrations are notably lacking. Bimanual dexterous manipulation is inherently more complex, as it requires coordinated arm movements and hand operations, making autonomous data collection challenging. This paper presents HumanoidGen, an automated task creation and demonstration collection framework that leverages atomic dexterous operations and LLM reasoning to generate relational constraints. Specifically, we provide spatial annotations for both assets and dexterous hands based on the atomic operations, and perform an LLM planner to generate a chain of actionable spatial constraints for arm movements based on object affordances and scenes. To further improve planning ability, we employ a variant of Monte Carlo tree search to enhance LLM reasoning for long-horizon tasks and insufficient annotation. In experiments, we create a novel benchmark with augmented scenarios to evaluate the quality of the collected data. The results show that the performance of the 2D and 3D diffusion policies can scale with the generated dataset. Project page is https://openhumanoidgen.github.io.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

Real-time 3D hand forecasting is a critical component for fluid human-computer interaction in applications like AR and assistive robotics. However, existing methods are ill-suited for these scenarios, as they typically require offline access to accumulated video sequences and cannot incorporate language guidance that conveys task intent. To overcome these limitations, we introduce SFHand, the first streaming framework for language-guided 3D hand forecasting. SFHand autoregressively predicts a comprehensive set of future 3D hand states, including hand type, 2D bounding box, 3D pose, and trajectory, from a continuous stream of video and language instructions. Our framework combines a streaming autoregressive architecture with an ROI-enhanced memory layer, capturing temporal context while focusing on salient hand-centric regions. To enable this research, we also introduce EgoHaFL, the first large-scale dataset featuring synchronized 3D hand poses and language instructions. We demonstrate that SFHand achieves new state-of-the-art results in 3D hand forecasting, outperforming prior work by a significant margin of up to 35.8%. Furthermore, we show the practical utility of our learned representations by transferring them to downstream embodied manipulation tasks, improving task success rates by up to 13.4% on multiple benchmarks. Dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ut-vision/EgoHaFL, project page: https://github.com/ut-vision/SFHand.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are predominantly evaluated by comparing their relative performance on a large suite of tasks. Most published results on deep RL benchmarks compare point estimates of aggregate performance such as mean and median scores across tasks, ignoring the statistical uncertainty implied by the use of a finite number of training runs. Beginning with the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), the shift towards computationally-demanding benchmarks has led to the practice of evaluating only a small number of runs per task, exacerbating the statistical uncertainty in point estimates. In this paper, we argue that reliable evaluation in the few run deep RL regime cannot ignore the uncertainty in results without running the risk of slowing down progress in the field. We illustrate this point using a case study on the Atari 100k benchmark, where we find substantial discrepancies between conclusions drawn from point estimates alone versus a more thorough statistical analysis. With the aim of increasing the field's confidence in reported results with a handful of runs, we advocate for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and propose performance profiles to account for the variability in results, as well as present more robust and efficient aggregate metrics, such as interquartile mean scores, to achieve small uncertainty in results. Using such statistical tools, we scrutinize performance evaluations of existing algorithms on other widely used RL benchmarks including the ALE, Procgen, and the DeepMind Control Suite, again revealing discrepancies in prior comparisons. Our findings call for a change in how we evaluate performance in deep RL, for which we present a more rigorous evaluation methodology, accompanied with an open-source library rliable, to prevent unreliable results from stagnating the field.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation simplifies to an expected cost estimation under this biased distribution. This reduces the sample complexity of the risk estimation during online planning, which is needed for safe real-time performance. Evaluation results in a didactic simulation environment and on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code and a demo are available.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

In machine learning, the notion of multi-armed bandits refers to a class of online learning problems, in which an agent is supposed to simultaneously explore and exploit a given set of choice alternatives in the course of a sequential decision process. In the standard setting, the agent learns from stochastic feedback in the form of real-valued rewards. In many applications, however, numerical reward signals are not readily available -- instead, only weaker information is provided, in particular relative preferences in the form of qualitative comparisons between pairs of alternatives. This observation has motivated the study of variants of the multi-armed bandit problem, in which more general representations are used both for the type of feedback to learn from and the target of prediction. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of the state of the art in this field, referred to as preference-based multi-armed bandits or dueling bandits. To this end, we provide an overview of problems that have been considered in the literature as well as methods for tackling them. Our taxonomy is mainly based on the assumptions made by these methods about the data-generating process and, related to this, the properties of the preference-based feedback.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

In arbitrary-order language models, it is an open question how to sample tokens in parallel from the correct joint distribution. With discrete diffusion models, the more tokens they generate in parallel, the less their predicted distributions adhere to the originally learned data distribution, as they rely on a conditional independence assumption that only works with infinitesimally small timesteps. We find that a different class of models, any-subset autoregressive models (AS-ARMs), holds the solution. As implied by the name, AS-ARMs can generate tokens in any order, and in parallel. Moreover, AS-ARMs support parallelized joint probability density estimation, allowing them to correct their own parallel-generated token distributions, via our Any-Subset Speculative Decoding (ASSD) algorithm. ASSD provably enables generation of tokens from the correct joint distribution, with the number of neural network calls upper bounded by the number of tokens predicted. We empirically verify that ASSD speeds up language generation, without sacrificing quality. Furthermore, we provide a mathematically justified scheme for training AS-ARMs for generation, and show that AS-ARMs achieve state-of-the-art performance among sub-200M parameter models on infilling benchmark tasks, and nearly match the performance of models 50X larger on code generation. Our theoretical and empirical results indicate that the once-forgotten AS-ARMs are a promising direction of language modeling.

The human intrinsic desire to pursue knowledge, also known as curiosity, is considered essential in the process of skill acquisition. With the aid of artificial curiosity, we could equip current techniques for control, such as Reinforcement Learning, with more natural exploration capabilities. A promising approach in this respect has consisted of using Bayesian surprise on model parameters, i.e. a metric for the difference between prior and posterior beliefs, to favour exploration. In this contribution, we propose to apply Bayesian surprise in a latent space representing the agent's current understanding of the dynamics of the system, drastically reducing the computational costs. We extensively evaluate our method by measuring the agent's performance in terms of environment exploration, for continuous tasks, and looking at the game scores achieved, for video games. Our model is computationally cheap and compares positively with current state-of-the-art methods on several problems. We also investigate the effects caused by stochasticity in the environment, which is often a failure case for curiosity-driven agents. In this regime, the results suggest that our approach is resilient to stochastic transitions.

In dynamic operational environments, particularly in collaborative robotics, the inevitability of failures necessitates robust and adaptable recovery strategies. Traditional automated recovery strategies, while effective for predefined scenarios, often lack the flexibility required for on-the-fly task management and adaptation to expected failures. Addressing this gap, we propose a novel approach that models recovery behaviors as adaptable robotic skills, leveraging the Behavior Trees and Motion Generators~(BTMG) framework for policy representation. This approach distinguishes itself by employing reinforcement learning~(RL) to dynamically refine recovery behavior parameters, enabling a tailored response to a wide array of failure scenarios with minimal human intervention. We assess our methodology through a series of progressively challenging scenarios within a peg-in-a-hole task, demonstrating the approach's effectiveness in enhancing operational efficiency and task success rates in collaborative robotics settings. We validate our approach using a dual-arm KUKA robot.

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

We study a distributed stochastic multi-armed bandit where a client supplies the learner with communication-constrained feedback based on the rewards for the corresponding arm pulls. In our setup, the client must encode the rewards such that the second moment of the encoded rewards is no more than P, and this encoded reward is further corrupted by additive Gaussian noise of variance sigma^2; the learner only has access to this corrupted reward. For this setting, we derive an information-theoretic lower bound of Omegaleft(frac{KT{SNR wedge1}} right) on the minimax regret of any scheme, where SNR := P{sigma^2}, and K and T are the number of arms and time horizon, respectively. Furthermore, we propose a multi-phase bandit algorithm, UEtext{-UCB++}, which matches this lower bound to a minor additive factor. UEtext{-UCB++} performs uniform exploration in its initial phases and then utilizes the {\em upper confidence bound }(UCB) bandit algorithm in its final phase. An interesting feature of UEtext{-UCB++} is that the coarser estimates of the mean rewards formed during a uniform exploration phase help to refine the encoding protocol in the next phase, leading to more accurate mean estimates of the rewards in the subsequent phase. This positive reinforcement cycle is critical to reducing the number of uniform exploration rounds and closely matching our lower bound.

Learning from demonstrations has shown to be an effective approach to robotic manipulation, especially with the recently collected large-scale robot data with teleoperation systems. Building an efficient teleoperation system across diverse robot platforms has become more crucial than ever. However, there is a notable lack of cost-effective and user-friendly teleoperation systems for different end-effectors, e.g., anthropomorphic robot hands and grippers, that can operate across multiple platforms. To address this issue, we develop ACE, a cross-platform visual-exoskeleton system for low-cost dexterous teleoperation. Our system utilizes a hand-facing camera to capture 3D hand poses and an exoskeleton mounted on a portable base, enabling accurate real-time capture of both finger and wrist poses. Compared to previous systems, which often require hardware customization according to different robots, our single system can generalize to humanoid hands, arm-hands, arm-gripper, and quadruped-gripper systems with high-precision teleoperation. This enables imitation learning for complex manipulation tasks on diverse platforms.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

Dexterous manipulation has been a long-standing challenge in robotics. While machine learning techniques have shown some promise, results have largely been currently limited to simulation. This can be mostly attributed to the lack of suitable hardware. In this paper, we present LEAP Hand, a low-cost dexterous and anthropomorphic hand for machine learning research. In contrast to previous hands, LEAP Hand has a novel kinematic structure that allows maximal dexterity regardless of finger pose. LEAP Hand is low-cost and can be assembled in 4 hours at a cost of 2000 USD from readily available parts. It is capable of consistently exerting large torques over long durations of time. We show that LEAP Hand can be used to perform several manipulation tasks in the real world -- from visual teleoperation to learning from passive video data and sim2real. LEAP Hand significantly outperforms its closest competitor Allegro Hand in all our experiments while being 1/8th of the cost. We release detailed assembly instructions, the Sim2Real pipeline and a development platform with useful APIs on our website at https://leap-hand.github.io/

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

Motivated by emerging applications such as live-streaming e-commerce, promotions and recommendations, we introduce and solve a general class of non-stationary multi-armed bandit problems that have the following two features: (i) the decision maker can pull and collect rewards from up to K,(ge 1) out of N different arms in each time period; (ii) the expected reward of an arm immediately drops after it is pulled, and then non-parametrically recovers as the arm's idle time increases. With the objective of maximizing the expected cumulative reward over T time periods, we design a class of ``Purely Periodic Policies'' that jointly set a period to pull each arm. For the proposed policies, we prove performance guarantees for both the offline problem and the online problems. For the offline problem when all model parameters are known, the proposed periodic policy obtains an approximation ratio that is at the order of 1-mathcal O(1/K), which is asymptotically optimal when K grows to infinity. For the online problem when the model parameters are unknown and need to be dynamically learned, we integrate the offline periodic policy with the upper confidence bound procedure to construct on online policy. The proposed online policy is proved to approximately have mathcal O(NT) regret against the offline benchmark. Our framework and policy design may shed light on broader offline planning and online learning applications with non-stationary and recovering rewards.

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

Treatment effect estimation in continuous time is crucial for personalized medicine. However, existing methods for this task are limited to point estimates of the potential outcomes, whereas uncertainty estimates have been ignored. Needless to say, uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in medical applications. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian neural controlled differential equation (BNCDE) for treatment effect estimation in continuous time. In our BNCDE, the time dimension is modeled through a coupled system of neural controlled differential equations and neural stochastic differential equations, where the neural stochastic differential equations allow for tractable variational Bayesian inference. Thereby, for an assigned sequence of treatments, our BNCDE provides meaningful posterior predictive distributions of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first tailored neural method to provide uncertainty estimates of treatment effects in continuous time. As such, our method is of direct practical value for promoting reliable decision-making in medicine.

Increased effort during use of the paretic arm and hand can provoke involuntary abnormal synergy patterns and amplify stiffness effects of muscle tone for individuals after stroke, which can add difficulty for user-controlled devices to assist hand movement during functional tasks. We study how volitional effort, exerted in an attempt to open or close the hand, affects resistance to robot-assisted movement at the finger level. We perform experiments with three chronic stroke survivors to measure changes in stiffness when the user is actively exerting effort to activate ipsilateral EMG-controlled robot-assisted hand movements, compared with when the fingers are passively stretched, as well as overall effects from sustained active engagement and use. Our results suggest that active engagement of the upper extremity increases muscle tone in the finger to a much greater degree than through passive-stretch or sustained exertion over time. Potential design implications of this work suggest that developers should anticipate higher levels of finger stiffness when relying on user-driven ipsilateral control methods for assistive or rehabilitative devices for stroke.

We study the non-stationary dueling bandits problem with K arms, where the time horizon T consists of M stationary segments, each of which is associated with its own preference matrix. The learner repeatedly selects a pair of arms and observes a binary preference between them as feedback. To minimize the accumulated regret, the learner needs to pick the Condorcet winner of each stationary segment as often as possible, despite preference matrices and segment lengths being unknown. We propose the Beat, the, Winner, Reset algorithm and prove a bound on its expected binary weak regret in the stationary case, which tightens the bound of current state-of-art algorithms. We also show a regret bound for the non-stationary case, without requiring knowledge of M or T. We further propose and analyze two meta-algorithms, DETECT for weak regret and Monitored, Dueling, Bandits for strong regret, both based on a detection-window approach that can incorporate any dueling bandit algorithm as a black-box algorithm. Finally, we prove a worst-case lower bound for expected weak regret in the non-stationary case.

Stochastic human motion prediction (HMP) has generally been tackled with generative adversarial networks and variational autoencoders. Most prior works aim at predicting highly diverse movements in terms of the skeleton joints' dispersion. This has led to methods predicting fast and motion-divergent movements, which are often unrealistic and incoherent with past motion. Such methods also neglect contexts that need to anticipate diverse low-range behaviors, or actions, with subtle joint displacements. To address these issues, we present BeLFusion, a model that, for the first time, leverages latent diffusion models in HMP to sample from a latent space where behavior is disentangled from pose and motion. As a result, diversity is encouraged from a behavioral perspective. Thanks to our behavior coupler's ability to transfer sampled behavior to ongoing motion, BeLFusion's predictions display a variety of behaviors that are significantly more realistic than the state of the art. To support it, we introduce two metrics, the Area of the Cumulative Motion Distribution, and the Average Pairwise Distance Error, which are correlated to our definition of realism according to a qualitative study with 126 participants. Finally, we prove BeLFusion's generalization power in a new cross-dataset scenario for stochastic HMP.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

In recommender system or crowdsourcing applications of online learning, a human's preferences or abilities are often a function of the algorithm's recent actions. Motivated by this, a significant line of work has formalized settings where an action's loss is a function of the number of times that action was recently played in the prior m timesteps, where m corresponds to a bound on human memory capacity. To more faithfully capture decay of human memory with time, we introduce the Weighted Tallying Bandit (WTB), which generalizes this setting by requiring that an action's loss is a function of a weighted summation of the number of times that arm was played in the last m timesteps. This WTB setting is intractable without further assumption. So we study it under Repeated Exposure Optimality (REO), a condition motivated by the literature on human physiology, which requires the existence of an action that when repetitively played will eventually yield smaller loss than any other sequence of actions. We study the minimization of the complete policy regret (CPR), which is the strongest notion of regret, in WTB under REO. Since m is typically unknown, we assume we only have access to an upper bound M on m. We show that for problems with K actions and horizon T, a simple modification of the successive elimination algorithm has O left( KT + (m+M)K right) CPR. Interestingly, upto an additive (in lieu of mutliplicative) factor in (m+M)K, this recovers the classical guarantee for the simpler stochastic multi-armed bandit with traditional regret. We additionally show that in our setting, any algorithm will suffer additive CPR of Omega left( mK + M right), demonstrating our result is nearly optimal. Our algorithm is computationally efficient, and we experimentally demonstrate its practicality and superiority over natural baselines.

Multi-armed bandits a simple but very powerful framework for algorithms that make decisions over time under uncertainty. An enormous body of work has accumulated over the years, covered in several books and surveys. This book provides a more introductory, textbook-like treatment of the subject. Each chapter tackles a particular line of work, providing a self-contained, teachable technical introduction and a brief review of the further developments; many of the chapters conclude with exercises. The book is structured as follows. The first four chapters are on IID rewards, from the basic model to impossibility results to Bayesian priors to Lipschitz rewards. The next three chapters cover adversarial rewards, from the full-feedback version to adversarial bandits to extensions with linear rewards and combinatorially structured actions. Chapter 8 is on contextual bandits, a middle ground between IID and adversarial bandits in which the change in reward distributions is completely explained by observable contexts. The last three chapters cover connections to economics, from learning in repeated games to bandits with supply/budget constraints to exploration in the presence of incentives. The appendix provides sufficient background on concentration and KL-divergence. The chapters on "bandits with similarity information", "bandits with knapsacks" and "bandits and agents" can also be consumed as standalone surveys on the respective topics.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Joint space and task space control are the two dominant action modes for controlling robot arms within the robot learning literature. Actions in joint space provide precise control over the robot's pose, but tend to suffer from inefficient training; actions in task space boast data-efficient training but sacrifice the ability to perform tasks in confined spaces due to limited control over the full joint configuration. This work analyses the criteria for designing action spaces for robot manipulation and introduces ER (End-effector Redundancy), a novel action space formulation that, by addressing the redundancies present in the manipulator, aims to combine the advantages of both joint and task spaces, offering fine-grained comprehensive control with overactuated robot arms whilst achieving highly efficient robot learning. We present two implementations of ER, ERAngle (ERA) and ERJoint (ERJ), and we show that ERJ in particular demonstrates superior performance across multiple settings, especially when precise control over the robot configuration is required. We validate our results both in simulated and real robotic environments.

We hand the community HAND, a simple and time-efficient method for teaching robots new manipulation tasks through human hand demonstrations. Instead of relying on task-specific robot demonstrations collected via teleoperation, HAND uses easy-to-provide hand demonstrations to retrieve relevant behaviors from task-agnostic robot play data. Using a visual tracking pipeline, HAND extracts the motion of the human hand from the hand demonstration and retrieves robot sub-trajectories in two stages: first filtering by visual similarity, then retrieving trajectories with similar behaviors to the hand. Fine-tuning a policy on the retrieved data enables real-time learning of tasks in under four minutes, without requiring calibrated cameras or detailed hand pose estimation. Experiments also show that HAND outperforms retrieval baselines by over 2x in average task success rates on real robots. Videos can be found at our project website: https://liralab.usc.edu/handretrieval/.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.

The standard formulation of Markov decision processes (MDPs) assumes that the agent's decisions are executed immediately. However, in numerous realistic applications such as robotics or healthcare, actions are performed with a delay whose value can even be stochastic. In this work, we introduce stochastic delayed execution MDPs, a new formalism addressing random delays without resorting to state augmentation. We show that given observed delay values, it is sufficient to perform a policy search in the class of Markov policies in order to reach optimal performance, thus extending the deterministic fixed delay case. Armed with this insight, we devise DEZ, a model-based algorithm that optimizes over the class of Markov policies. DEZ leverages Monte-Carlo tree search similar to its non-delayed variant EfficientZero to accurately infer future states from the action queue. Thus, it handles delayed execution while preserving the sample efficiency of EfficientZero. Through a series of experiments on the Atari suite, we demonstrate that although the previous baseline outperforms the naive method in scenarios with constant delay, it underperforms in the face of stochastic delays. In contrast, our approach significantly outperforms the baselines, for both constant and stochastic delays. The code is available at http://github.com/davidva1/Delayed-EZ .

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

The integration of manipulator robots in household environments suggests a need for more predictable and human-like robot motion. This holds especially true for wheelchair-mounted assistive robots that can support the independence of people with paralysis. One method of generating naturalistic motion trajectories is via the imitation of human demonstrators. This paper explores a self-supervised imitation learning method using an autoregressive spatio-temporal graph neural network for an assistive drinking task. We address learning from diverse human motion trajectory data that were captured via wearable IMU sensors on a human arm as the action-free task demonstrations. Observed arm motion data from several participants is used to generate natural and functional drinking motion trajectories for a UR5e robot arm.

Human dexterity is a hallmark of motor control. Our hands can rapidly synthesize new behaviors despite the complexity (multi-articular and multi-joints, with 23 joints controlled by more than 40 muscles) of musculoskeletal sensory-motor circuits. In this work, we take inspiration from how human dexterity builds on a diversity of prior experiences, instead of being acquired through a single task. Motivated by this observation, we set out to develop agents that can build upon their previous experience to quickly acquire new (previously unattainable) behaviors. Specifically, our approach leverages multi-task learning to implicitly capture task-agnostic behavioral priors (MyoDex) for human-like dexterity, using a physiologically realistic human hand model - MyoHand. We demonstrate MyoDex's effectiveness in few-shot generalization as well as positive transfer to a large repertoire of unseen dexterous manipulation tasks. Agents leveraging MyoDex can solve approximately 3x more tasks, and 4x faster in comparison to a distillation baseline. While prior work has synthesized single musculoskeletal control behaviors, MyoDex is the first generalizable manipulation prior that catalyzes the learning of dexterous physiological control across a large variety of contact-rich behaviors. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our paradigms beyond musculoskeletal control towards the acquisition of dexterity in 24 DoF Adroit Hand. Website: https://sites.google.com/view/myodex

In recent years, imitation learning has made progress in the field of robotic manipulation. However, it still faces challenges when dealing with complex long-horizon deformable object tasks, such as high-dimensional state spaces, complex dynamics, and multimodal action distributions. Traditional imitation learning methods often require a large amount of data and encounter distributional shifts and accumulative errors in these tasks. To address these issues, we propose a data-efficient general learning framework (DeformPAM) based on preference learning and reward-guided action selection. DeformPAM decomposes long-horizon tasks into multiple action primitives, utilizes 3D point cloud inputs and diffusion models to model action distributions, and trains an implicit reward model using human preference data. During the inference phase, the reward model scores multiple candidate actions, selecting the optimal action for execution, thereby reducing the occurrence of anomalous actions and improving task completion quality. Experiments conducted on three challenging real-world long-horizon deformable object manipulation tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of this method. Results show that DeformPAM improves both task completion quality and efficiency compared to baseline methods even with limited data. Code and data will be available at https://deform-pam.robotflow.ai.

We introduce MURA, a large dataset of musculoskeletal radiographs containing 40,561 images from 14,863 studies, where each study is manually labeled by radiologists as either normal or abnormal. To evaluate models robustly and to get an estimate of radiologist performance, we collect additional labels from six board-certified Stanford radiologists on the test set, consisting of 207 musculoskeletal studies. On this test set, the majority vote of a group of three radiologists serves as gold standard. We train a 169-layer DenseNet baseline model to detect and localize abnormalities. Our model achieves an AUROC of 0.929, with an operating point of 0.815 sensitivity and 0.887 specificity. We compare our model and radiologists on the Cohen's kappa statistic, which expresses the agreement of our model and of each radiologist with the gold standard. Model performance is comparable to the best radiologist performance in detecting abnormalities on finger and wrist studies. However, model performance is lower than best radiologist performance in detecting abnormalities on elbow, forearm, hand, humerus, and shoulder studies. We believe that the task is a good challenge for future research. To encourage advances, we have made our dataset freely available at https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/competitions/mura .

Autoregressive language models (ARMs) deliver strong likelihoods, but are inherently serial: they generate one token per forward pass, which limits throughput and inflates latency for long sequences. Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) parallelize across positions and thus appear promising for language generation, yet standard discrete diffusion typically needs hundreds to thousands of model evaluations to reach high quality, trading serial depth for iterative breadth. We introduce FS-DFM, Few-Step Discrete Flow-Matching. A discrete flow-matching model designed for speed without sacrificing quality. The core idea is simple: make the number of sampling steps an explicit parameter and train the model to be consistent across step budgets, so one big move lands where many small moves would. We pair this with a reliable update rule that moves probability in the right direction without overshooting, and with strong teacher guidance distilled from long-run trajectories. Together, these choices make few-step sampling stable, accurate, and easy to control. On language modeling benchmarks, FS-DFM with 8 sampling steps achieves perplexity parity with a 1,024-step discrete-flow baseline for generating 1,024 tokens using a similar-size model, delivering up to 128 times faster sampling and corresponding latency/throughput gains.

Recent works in robotic manipulation through reinforcement learning (RL) or imitation learning (IL) have shown potential for tackling a range of tasks e.g., opening a drawer or a cupboard. However, these techniques generalize poorly to unseen objects. We conjecture that this is due to the high-dimensional action space for joint control. In this paper, we take an alternative approach and separate the task of learning 'what to do' from 'how to do it' i.e., whole-body control. We pose the RL problem as one of determining the skill dynamics for a disembodied virtual manipulator interacting with articulated objects. The whole-body robotic kinematic control is optimized to execute the high-dimensional joint motion to reach the goals in the workspace. It does so by solving a quadratic programming (QP) model with robotic singularity and kinematic constraints. Our experiments on manipulating complex articulated objects show that the proposed approach is more generalizable to unseen objects with large intra-class variations, outperforming previous approaches. The evaluation results indicate that our approach generates more compliant robotic motion and outperforms the pure RL and IL baselines in task success rates. Additional information and videos are available at https://kl-research.github.io/decoupskill

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

In the rapidly advancing field of robotics, dual-arm coordination and complex object manipulation are essential capabilities for developing advanced autonomous systems. However, the scarcity of diverse, high-quality demonstration data and real-world-aligned evaluation benchmarks severely limits such development. To address this, we introduce RoboTwin, a generative digital twin framework that uses 3D generative foundation models and large language models to produce diverse expert datasets and provide a real-world-aligned evaluation platform for dual-arm robotic tasks. Specifically, RoboTwin creates varied digital twins of objects from single 2D images, generating realistic and interactive scenarios. It also introduces a spatial relation-aware code generation framework that combines object annotations with large language models to break down tasks, determine spatial constraints, and generate precise robotic movement code. Our framework offers a comprehensive benchmark with both simulated and real-world data, enabling standardized evaluation and better alignment between simulated training and real-world performance. We validated our approach using the open-source COBOT Magic Robot platform. Policies pre-trained on RoboTwin-generated data and fine-tuned with limited real-world samples demonstrate significant potential for enhancing dual-arm robotic manipulation systems by improving success rates by over 70% for single-arm tasks and over 40% for dual-arm tasks compared to models trained solely on real-world data.

Handover measurement is responsible for finding a handover target and directly decides the performance of mobility management. It is governed by a complex combination of parameters dealing with multi-cell scenarios and system dynamics. A network design has to offer an appropriate handover measurement procedure in such a multi-constraint problem. The present paper proposes a unified framework for the network analysis and optimization. The exposition focuses on the stochastic modeling and addresses its key probabilistic events namely (i) suitable handover target found, (ii) service failure, (iii) handover measurement triggering, and (iv) handover measurement withdrawal. We derive their closed-form expressions and provide a generalized setup for the analysis of handover measurement failure and target cell quality by the best signal quality and minimum duration outage level crossing properties. Finally, we show its application and effectiveness in today's 3GPP-LTE cellular networks.

Powerful priors allow us to perform inference with insufficient information. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive prior for 3D shapes to solve multimodal 3D tasks such as shape completion, reconstruction, and generation. We model the distribution over 3D shapes as a non-sequential autoregressive distribution over a discretized, low-dimensional, symbolic grid-like latent representation of 3D shapes. This enables us to represent distributions over 3D shapes conditioned on information from an arbitrary set of spatially anchored query locations and thus perform shape completion in such arbitrary settings (e.g., generating a complete chair given only a view of the back leg). We also show that the learned autoregressive prior can be leveraged for conditional tasks such as single-view reconstruction and language-based generation. This is achieved by learning task-specific naive conditionals which can be approximated by light-weight models trained on minimal paired data. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed method using both quantitative and qualitative evaluation and show that the proposed method outperforms the specialized state-of-the-art methods trained for individual tasks. The project page with code and video visualizations can be found at https://yccyenchicheng.github.io/AutoSDF/.

Posterior sampling allows the exploitation of prior knowledge of the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, a task that can be cumbersome in practice, often resulting in the choice of uninformative priors. In this work, we propose a novel posterior sampling approach in which the prior is given as a (partial) causal graph over the environment's variables. The latter is often more natural to design, such as listing known causal dependencies between biometric features in a medical treatment study. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian procedure, called C-PSRL, simultaneously learning the full causal graph at the higher level and the parameters of the resulting factored dynamics at the lower level. For this procedure, we provide an analysis of its Bayesian regret, which explicitly connects the regret rate with the degree of prior knowledge. Our numerical evaluation conducted in illustrative domains confirms that C-PSRL strongly improves the efficiency of posterior sampling with an uninformative prior while performing close to posterior sampling with the full causal graph.

We consider finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes where parameters, such as transition probabilities, are unknown and estimated from data. The popular distributionally robust approach to addressing the parameter uncertainty can sometimes be overly conservative. In this paper, we propose a new formulation, Bayesian risk Markov Decision Process (BR-MDP), to address parameter uncertainty in MDPs, where a risk functional is applied in nested form to the expected total cost with respect to the Bayesian posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. The proposed formulation provides more flexible risk attitutes towards parameter uncertainty and takes into account the availability of data in future times stages. To solve the proposed formulation with the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) risk functional, we propose an efficient approximation algorithm by deriving an analytical approximation of the value function and utilizing the convexity of CVaR. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the BR-MDP formulation and proposed algorithms on a gambler's betting problem and an inventory control problem.

We consider the regret minimization task in a dueling bandits problem with context information. In every round of the sequential decision problem, the learner makes a context-dependent selection of two choice alternatives (arms) to be compared with each other and receives feedback in the form of noisy preference information. We assume that the feedback process is determined by a linear stochastic transitivity model with contextualized utilities (CoLST), and the learner's task is to include the best arm (with highest latent context-dependent utility) in the duel. We propose a computationally efficient algorithm, CoLSTIM, which makes its choice based on imitating the feedback process using perturbed context-dependent utility estimates of the underlying CoLST model. If each arm is associated with a d-dimensional feature vector, we show that CoLSTIM achieves a regret of order tilde O( dT) after T learning rounds. Additionally, we also establish the optimality of CoLSTIM by showing a lower bound for the weak regret that refines the existing average regret analysis. Our experiments demonstrate its superiority over state-of-art algorithms for special cases of CoLST models.

Survival analysis is the problem of estimating probability distributions for future event times, which can be seen as a problem in uncertainty quantification. Although there are fundamental theories on strictly proper scoring rules for uncertainty quantification, little is known about those for survival analysis. In this paper, we investigate extensions of four major strictly proper scoring rules for survival analysis and we prove that these extensions are proper under certain conditions, which arise from the discretization of the estimation of probability distributions. We also compare the estimation performances of these extended scoring rules by using real datasets, and the extensions of the logarithmic score and the Brier score performed the best.

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or involve computationally expensive nested Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) loops. In contrast, the proposed approach leverages stochastic averaging within a slow-fast system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to estimate intermediate scores along a diffusion path without training or inner-loop MCMC. Two algorithms are developed under this framework: MultALMC, which uses multiscale annealed Langevin dynamics, and MultCDiff, based on multiscale controlled diffusions for the reverse-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both overdamped and underdamped variants are considered, with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the desired diffusion path. The framework is extended to handle heavy-tailed target distributions using Student's t-based noise models and tailored fast-process dynamics. Empirical results across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, including multimodal and high-dimensional distributions, demonstrate that the proposed methods are competitive with existing samplers in terms of accuracy and efficiency, without the need for learned models.

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

Gravitational waves from asymmetric mass-ratio black-hole binaries carry unique information about their astrophysical environment. For instance, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) could potentially measure the amplitude and slope of gas torques in binaries embedded in the accretion disks of Active Galactic Nuclei, helping differentiate competing accretion disk models. However, this relies on simplified analytic models, which do not account for the stochastic variability of torques seen in hydrodynamic simulations. In this work, we use hydrodynamic simulations to create gravitational waveforms for extreme and intermediate mass-ratio inspirals in the LISA band. We then analyze these simulated waveforms using simpler templates that assume analytic torques, without stochastic time variability. By performing realistic Bayesian parameter estimation, we find no bias at 90% confidence in the binary parameters; however, estimates of accretion disk parameters, such as torque amplitude and slope, may be biased. Typically, the posterior distribution is centered around the average value of the torques, but when stochastic variability is large, the posterior can indicate no torques, even though they are present in the simulation. Our results suggest that while simplified analytic torque models work well for estimating binary parameters, caution is needed when using them to infer properties of the accretion disk. This work moves towards a more realistic assessment of one of the LISA science objectives, i.e., probing the properties of the astrophysical environments of black holes.

We study best arm identification (BAI) in linear bandits in the fixed-budget regime under differential privacy constraints, when the arm rewards are supported on the unit interval. Given a finite budget T and a privacy parameter varepsilon>0, the goal is to minimise the error probability in finding the arm with the largest mean after T sampling rounds, subject to the constraint that the policy of the decision maker satisfies a certain {\em varepsilon-differential privacy} (varepsilon-DP) constraint. We construct a policy satisfying the varepsilon-DP constraint (called {\sc DP-BAI}) by proposing the principle of {\em maximum absolute determinants}, and derive an upper bound on its error probability. Furthermore, we derive a minimax lower bound on the error probability, and demonstrate that the lower and the upper bounds decay exponentially in T, with exponents in the two bounds matching order-wise in (a) the sub-optimality gaps of the arms, (b) varepsilon, and (c) the problem complexity that is expressible as the sum of two terms, one characterising the complexity of standard fixed-budget BAI (without privacy constraints), and the other accounting for the varepsilon-DP constraint. Additionally, we present some auxiliary results that contribute to the derivation of the lower bound on the error probability. These results, we posit, may be of independent interest and could prove instrumental in proving lower bounds on error probabilities in several other bandit problems. Whereas prior works provide results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime without privacy constraints or in the fixed-confidence regime with privacy constraints, our work fills the gap in the literature by providing the results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime under the varepsilon-DP constraint.

Human hands possess the dexterity to interact with diverse objects such as grasping specific parts of the objects and/or approaching them from desired directions. More importantly, humans can grasp objects of any shape without object-specific skills. Recent works synthesize grasping motions following single objectives such as a desired approach heading direction or a grasping area. Moreover, they usually rely on expensive 3D hand-object data during training and inference, which limits their capability to synthesize grasping motions for unseen objects at scale. In this paper, we unify the generation of hand-object grasping motions across multiple motion objectives, diverse object shapes and dexterous hand morphologies in a policy learning framework GraspXL. The objectives are composed of the graspable area, heading direction during approach, wrist rotation, and hand position. Without requiring any 3D hand-object interaction data, our policy trained with 58 objects can robustly synthesize diverse grasping motions for more than 500k unseen objects with a success rate of 82.2%. At the same time, the policy adheres to objectives, which enables the generation of diverse grasps per object. Moreover, we show that our framework can be deployed to different dexterous hands and work with reconstructed or generated objects. We quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate our method to show the efficacy of our approach. Our model, code, and the large-scale generated motions are available at https://eth-ait.github.io/graspxl/.

Estimating the impact of continuous treatment variables (e.g., dosage amount) on binary outcomes presents significant challenges in modeling and estimation because many existing approaches make strong assumptions that do not hold for certain continuous treatment variables. For instance, traditional logistic regression makes strong linearity assumptions that do not hold for continuous treatment variables like time of initiation. In this work, we propose a semiparametric regression framework that decomposes effects into two interpretable components: a prognostic score that captures baseline outcome risk based on a combination of clinical, genetic, and sociodemographic features, and a treatment-interaction score that flexibly models the optimal treatment level via a nonparametric link function. By connecting these two parametric scores with Nadaraya-Watson regression, our approach is both interpretable and flexible. The potential of our approach is demonstrated through numerical simulations that show empirical estimation convergence. We conclude by applying our approach to a real-world case study using the International Warfarin Pharmacogenomics Consortium (IWPC) dataset to show our approach's clinical utility by deriving personalized warfarin dosing recommendations that integrate both genetic and clinical data, providing insights towards enhancing patient safety and therapeutic efficacy in anticoagulation therapy.

We propose U-Arm, a low-cost and rapidly adaptable leader-follower teleoperation framework designed to interface with most of commercially available robotic arms. Our system supports teleoperation through three structurally distinct 3D-printed leader arms that share consistent control logic, enabling seamless compatibility with diverse commercial robot configurations. Compared with previous open-source leader-follower interfaces, we further optimized both the mechanical design and servo selection, achieving a bill of materials (BOM) cost of only \50.5 for the 6-DoF leader arm and 56.8 for the 7-DoF version. To enhance usability, we mitigate the common challenge in controlling redundant degrees of freedom by %engineering methods mechanical and control optimizations. Experimental results demonstrate that U-Arm achieves 39\% higher data collection efficiency and comparable task success rates across multiple manipulation scenarios compared with Joycon, another low-cost teleoperation interface. We have open-sourced all CAD models of three configs and also provided simulation support for validating teleoperation workflows. We also open-sourced real-world manipulation data collected with U-Arm. The project website is https://github.com/MINT-SJTU/LeRobot-Anything-U-Arm.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating realistic images but suffer from generating accurate human hands, such as incorrect finger counts or irregular shapes. This difficulty arises from the complex task of learning the physical structure and pose of hands from training images, which involves extensive deformations and occlusions. For correct hand generation, our paper introduces a lightweight post-processing solution called HandRefiner. HandRefiner employs a conditional inpainting approach to rectify malformed hands while leaving other parts of the image untouched. We leverage the hand mesh reconstruction model that consistently adheres to the correct number of fingers and hand shape, while also being capable of fitting the desired hand pose in the generated image. Given a generated failed image due to malformed hands, we utilize ControlNet modules to re-inject such correct hand information. Additionally, we uncover a phase transition phenomenon within ControlNet as we vary the control strength. It enables us to take advantage of more readily available synthetic data without suffering from the domain gap between realistic and synthetic hands. Experiments demonstrate that HandRefiner can significantly improve the generation quality quantitatively and qualitatively. The code is available at https://github.com/wenquanlu/HandRefiner .

The rising number of the elderly incurs growing concern about healthcare, and in particular rehabilitation healthcare. Assistive technology and assistive robotics in particular may help to improve this process. We develop a robot coach capable of demonstrating rehabilitation exercises to patients, watch a patient carry out the exercises and give him feedback so as to improve his performance and encourage him. The HRI of the system is based on our study with a team of rehabilitation therapists and with the target population.The system relies on human motion analysis. We develop a method for learning a probabilistic representation of ideal movements from expert demonstrations. A Gaussian Mixture Model is employed from position and orientation features captured using a Microsoft Kinect v2. For assessing patients' movements, we propose a real-time multi-level analysis to both temporally and spatially identify and explain body part errors. This analysis combined with a classification algorithm allows the robot to provide coaching advice to make the patient improve his movements. The evaluation on three rehabilitation exercises shows the potential of the proposed approach for learning and assessing kinaesthetic movements.

Pose estimation has promised to impact healthcare by enabling more practical methods to quantify nuances of human movement and biomechanics. However, despite the inherent connection between pose estimation and biomechanics, these disciplines have largely remained disparate. For example, most current pose estimation benchmarks use metrics such as Mean Per Joint Position Error, Percentage of Correct Keypoints, or mean Average Precision to assess performance, without quantifying kinematic and physiological correctness - key aspects for biomechanics. To alleviate this challenge, we develop OpenCapBench to offer an easy-to-use unified benchmark to assess common tasks in human pose estimation, evaluated under physiological constraints. OpenCapBench computes consistent kinematic metrics through joints angles provided by an open-source musculoskeletal modeling software (OpenSim). Through OpenCapBench, we demonstrate that current pose estimation models use keypoints that are too sparse for accurate biomechanics analysis. To mitigate this challenge, we introduce SynthPose, a new approach that enables finetuning of pre-trained 2D human pose models to predict an arbitrarily denser set of keypoints for accurate kinematic analysis through the use of synthetic data. Incorporating such finetuning on synthetic data of prior models leads to twofold reduced joint angle errors. Moreover, OpenCapBench allows users to benchmark their own developed models on our clinically relevant cohort. Overall, OpenCapBench bridges the computer vision and biomechanics communities, aiming to drive simultaneous advances in both areas.

Beam search is the default decoding strategy for many sequence generation tasks in NLP. The set of approximate K-best items returned by the algorithm is a useful summary of the distribution for many applications; however, the candidates typically exhibit high overlap and may give a highly biased estimate for expectations under our model. These problems can be addressed by instead using stochastic decoding strategies. In this work, we propose a new method for turning beam search into a stochastic process: Conditional Poisson stochastic beam search. Rather than taking the maximizing set at each iteration, we sample K candidates without replacement according to the conditional Poisson sampling design. We view this as a more natural alternative to Kool et. al. 2019's stochastic beam search (SBS). Furthermore, we show how samples generated under the CPSBS design can be used to build consistent estimators and sample diverse sets from sequence models. In our experiments, we observe CPSBS produces lower variance and more efficient estimators than SBS, even showing improvements in high entropy settings.

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

Hand trajectory forecasting from egocentric views is crucial for enabling a prompt understanding of human intentions when interacting with AR/VR systems. However, existing methods handle this problem in a 2D image space which is inadequate for 3D real-world applications. In this paper, we set up an egocentric 3D hand trajectory forecasting task that aims to predict hand trajectories in a 3D space from early observed RGB videos in a first-person view. To fulfill this goal, we propose an uncertainty-aware state space Transformer (USST) that takes the merits of the attention mechanism and aleatoric uncertainty within the framework of the classical state-space model. The model can be further enhanced by the velocity constraint and visual prompt tuning (VPT) on large vision transformers. Moreover, we develop an annotation workflow to collect 3D hand trajectories with high quality. Experimental results on H2O and EgoPAT3D datasets demonstrate the superiority of USST for both 2D and 3D trajectory forecasting. The code and datasets are publicly released: https://actionlab-cv.github.io/EgoHandTrajPred.

We study a new non-stochastic federated multi-armed bandit problem with multiple agents collaborating via a communication network. The losses of the arms are assigned by an oblivious adversary that specifies the loss of each arm not only for each time step but also for each agent, which we call ``doubly adversarial". In this setting, different agents may choose the same arm in the same time step but observe different feedback. The goal of each agent is to find a globally best arm in hindsight that has the lowest cumulative loss averaged over all agents, which necessities the communication among agents. We provide regret lower bounds for any federated bandit algorithm under different settings, when agents have access to full-information feedback, or the bandit feedback. For the bandit feedback setting, we propose a near-optimal federated bandit algorithm called FEDEXP3. Our algorithm gives a positive answer to an open question proposed in Cesa-Bianchi et al. (2016): FEDEXP3 can guarantee a sub-linear regret without exchanging sequences of selected arm identities or loss sequences among agents. We also provide numerical evaluations of our algorithm to validate our theoretical results and demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic and real-world datasets

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

We consider identification of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) framework in the presence of endogenous sample selection. First, we establish that the usual DiD estimand fails to recover meaningful treatment effects, even if selection and treatment assignment are independent. Next, we partially identify the ATT for individuals who are always observed post-treatment regardless of their treatment status, and derive bounds on this parameter under different sets of assumptions about the relationship between sample selection and treatment assignment. Extensions to the repeated cross-section and two-by-two comparisons in the staggered adoption case are explored. Furthermore, we provide identification results for the ATT of three additional empirically relevant latent groups by incorporating outcome mean dominance assumptions which have intuitive appeal in applications. Finally, two empirical illustrations demonstrate the approach's usefulness by revisiting (i) the effect of a job training program on earnings(Calonico & Smith, 2017) and (ii) the effect of a working-from-home policy on employee performance (Bloom, Liang, Roberts, & Ying, 2015).

Probabilistic human motion prediction aims to forecast multiple possible future movements from past observations. While current approaches report high diversity and realism, they often generate motions with undetected limb stretching and jitter. To address this, we introduce SkeletonDiffusion, a latent diffusion model that embeds an explicit inductive bias on the human body within its architecture and training. Our model is trained with a novel nonisotropic Gaussian diffusion formulation that aligns with the natural kinematic structure of the human skeleton. Results show that our approach outperforms conventional isotropic alternatives, consistently generating realistic predictions while avoiding artifacts such as limb distortion. Additionally, we identify a limitation in commonly used diversity metrics, which may inadvertently favor models that produce inconsistent limb lengths within the same sequence. SkeletonDiffusion sets a new benchmark on real-world datasets, outperforming various baselines across multiple evaluation metrics. Visit our project page at https://ceveloper.github.io/publications/skeletondiffusion/ .

Sexual dimorphism is a critical factor in many biological and medical research fields. In biomechanics and bioengineering, understanding sex differences is crucial for studying musculoskeletal conditions such as temporomandibular disorder (TMD). This paper focuses on the association between the craniofacial skeletal morphology and temporomandibular joint (TMJ) related masticatory muscle attachments to discern sex differences. Data were collected from 10 male and 11 female cadaver heads to investigate sex-specific relationships between the skull and muscles. We propose a conditional cross-covariance reduction (CCR) model, designed to examine the dynamic association between two sets of random variables conditioned on a third binary variable (e.g., sex), highlighting the most distinctive sex-related relationships between skull and muscle attachments in the human cadaver data. Under the CCR model, we employ a sparse singular value decomposition algorithm and introduce a sequential permutation for selecting sparsity (SPSS) method to select important variables and to determine the optimal number of selected variables.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease, which has no cure. Knee OA (KOA) is one of the highest causes of disability worldwide, and it costs billions of United States dollars to the global community. Prediction of KOA progression has been of high interest to the community for years, as it can advance treatment development through more efficient clinical trials and improve patient outcomes through more efficient healthcare utilization. Existing approaches for predicting KOA, however, are predominantly static, i.e. consider data from a single time point to predict progression many years into the future, and knee level, i.e. consider progression in a single joint only. Due to these and related reasons, these methods fail to deliver the level of predictive performance, which is sufficient to result in cost savings and better patient outcomes. Collecting extensive data from all patients on a regular basis could address the issue, but it is limited by the high cost at a population level. In this work, we propose to go beyond static prediction models in OA, and bring a novel Active Sensing (AS) approach, designed to dynamically follow up patients with the objective of maximizing the number of informative data acquisitions, while minimizing their total cost over a period of time. Our approach is based on Reinforcement Learning (RL), and it leverages a novel reward function designed specifically for AS of disease progression in more than one part of a human body. Our method is end-to-end, relies on multi-modal Deep Learning, and requires no human input at inference time. Throughout an exhaustive experimental evaluation, we show that using RL can provide a higher monetary benefit when compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

We present the first deep learning model for segmenting galactic spiral arms and bars. In a blinded assessment by expert astronomers, our predicted spiral arm masks are preferred over both current automated methods (99% of evaluations) and our original volunteer labels (79% of evaluations). Experts rated our spiral arm masks as `mostly good' to `perfect' in 89% of evaluations. Bar lengths trivially derived from our predicted bar masks are in excellent agreement with a dedicated crowdsourcing project. The pixelwise precision of our masks, previously impossible at scale, will underpin new research into how spiral arms and bars evolve.

We generalise an existing construction of Bayesian Lenses to admit lenses between pairs of objects where the backwards object is dependent on states on the forwards object (interpreted as probability distributions). This gives a natural setting for studying stochastic maps with Bayesian inverses restricted to the points supported by a given prior. In order to state this formally we develop a proposed definition by Fritz of a support object in a Markov category and show that these give rise to a section into the category of dependent Bayesian lenses encoding a more canonical notion of Bayesian inversion.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Cancer is a genetic disorder whose clonal evolution can be monitored by tracking noisy genome-wide copy number variants. We introduce the Copy Number Stochastic Block Model (CN-SBM), a probabilistic framework that jointly clusters samples and genomic regions based on discrete copy number states using a bipartite categorical block model. Unlike models relying on Gaussian or Poisson assumptions, CN-SBM respects the discrete nature of CNV calls and captures subpopulation-specific patterns through block-wise structure. Using a two-stage approach, CN-SBM decomposes CNV data into primary and residual components, enabling detection of both large-scale chromosomal alterations and finer aberrations. We derive a scalable variational inference algorithm for application to large cohorts and high-resolution data. Benchmarks on simulated and real datasets show improved model fit over existing methods. Applied to TCGA low-grade glioma data, CN-SBM reveals clinically relevant subtypes and structured residual variation, aiding patient stratification in survival analysis. These results establish CN-SBM as an interpretable, scalable framework for CNV analysis with direct relevance for tumor heterogeneity and prognosis.

Randomized controlled trials are susceptible to imbalance on covariates predictive of the outcome. Rerandomization and deterministic treatment assignment are two proposed solutions. This paper explores the relationship between rerandomization and deterministic assignment, showing how deterministic assignment is an extreme case of rerandomization. The paper argues that in small experiments, both fully randomized and fully deterministic assignment have limitations. Instead, the researcher should consider setting the rerandomization acceptance probability based on an analysis of covariates and assumptions about the data structure to achieve an optimal alignment between randomness and balance. This allows for the calculation of minimum p-values along with valid permutation tests and fiducial intervals. The paper also introduces tools, including a new, open-source R package named fastrerandomize, to implement rerandomization and explore options for optimal rerandomization acceptance thresholds.

When a robot autonomously performs a complex task, it frequently must balance competing objectives while maintaining safety. This becomes more difficult in uncertain environments with stochastic outcomes. Enhancing transparency in the robot's behavior and aligning with user preferences are also crucial. This paper introduces a novel framework for multi-objective reinforcement learning that ensures safe task execution, optimizes trade-offs between objectives, and adheres to user preferences. The framework has two main layers: a multi-objective task planner and a high-level selector. The planning layer generates a set of optimal trade-off plans that guarantee satisfaction of a temporal logic task. The selector uses active inference to decide which generated plan best complies with user preferences and aids learning. Operating iteratively, the framework updates a parameterized learning model based on collected data. Case studies and benchmarks on both manipulation and mobile robots show that our framework outperforms other methods and (i) learns multiple optimal trade-offs, (ii) adheres to a user preference, and (iii) allows the user to adjust the balance between (i) and (ii).

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

Restless multi-armed bandits (RMAB) have demonstrated success in optimizing resource allocation for large beneficiary populations in public health settings. Unfortunately, RMAB models lack flexibility to adapt to evolving public health policy priorities. Concurrently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as adept automated planners across domains of robotic control and navigation. In this paper, we propose a Decision Language Model (DLM) for RMABs, enabling dynamic fine-tuning of RMAB policies in public health settings using human-language commands. We propose using LLMs as automated planners to (1) interpret human policy preference prompts, (2) propose reward functions as code for a multi-agent RMAB environment, and (3) iterate on the generated reward functions using feedback from grounded RMAB simulations. We illustrate the application of DLM in collaboration with ARMMAN, an India-based non-profit promoting preventative care for pregnant mothers, that currently relies on RMAB policies to optimally allocate health worker calls to low-resource populations. We conduct a technology demonstration in simulation using the Gemini Pro model, showing DLM can dynamically shape policy outcomes using only human prompts as input.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

Generative Behavior Cloning (GBC) is a simple yet effective framework for robot learning, particularly in multi-task settings. Recent GBC methods often employ diffusion policies with open-loop (OL) control, where actions are generated via a diffusion process and executed in multi-step chunks without replanning. While this approach has demonstrated strong success rates and generalization, its inherent stochasticity can result in erroneous action sampling, occasionally leading to unexpected task failures. Moreover, OL control suffers from delayed responses, which can degrade performance in noisy or dynamic environments. To address these limitations, we propose two novel techniques to enhance the consistency and reactivity of diffusion policies: (1) self-guidance, which improves action fidelity by leveraging past observations and implicitly promoting future-aware behavior; and (2) adaptive chunking, which selectively updates action sequences when the benefits of reactivity outweigh the need for temporal consistency. Extensive experiments show that our approach substantially improves GBC performance across a wide range of simulated and real-world robotic manipulation tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/junhyukso/SGAC

We study a family of distributed stochastic optimization algorithms where gradients are sampled by a token traversing a network of agents in random-walk fashion. Typically, these random-walks are chosen to be Markov chains that asymptotically sample from a desired target distribution, and play a critical role in the convergence of the optimization iterates. In this paper, we take a novel approach by replacing the standard linear Markovian token by one which follows a nonlinear Markov chain - namely the Self-Repellent Radom Walk (SRRW). Defined for any given 'base' Markov chain, the SRRW, parameterized by a positive scalar {\alpha}, is less likely to transition to states that were highly visited in the past, thus the name. In the context of MCMC sampling on a graph, a recent breakthrough in Doshi et al. (2023) shows that the SRRW achieves O(1/{\alpha}) decrease in the asymptotic variance for sampling. We propose the use of a 'generalized' version of the SRRW to drive token algorithms for distributed stochastic optimization in the form of stochastic approximation, termed SA-SRRW. We prove that the optimization iterate errors of the resulting SA-SRRW converge to zero almost surely and prove a central limit theorem, deriving the explicit form of the resulting asymptotic covariance matrix corresponding to iterate errors. This asymptotic covariance is always smaller than that of an algorithm driven by the base Markov chain and decreases at rate O(1/{\alpha}^2) - the performance benefit of using SRRW thereby amplified in the stochastic optimization context. Empirical results support our theoretical findings.

We propose BayesLoRA, a task-specific uncertainty quantification framework that integrates MC-Dropout into Low-Rank Adapters (LoRA). Unlike general-purpose transformer uncertainty methods, BayesLoRA provides guardrails tailored to downstream workflows, enabling agents to introspect and modulate behavior under uncertainty. We demonstrate mathematically and empirically that LoRA adapters exhibit amplified variance outside fine-tuning distributions, yielding reliable confidence estimates for agentic decision-making.

We present Chain-of-Action (CoA), a novel visuo-motor policy paradigm built upon Trajectory Autoregressive Modeling. Unlike conventional approaches that predict next step action(s) forward, CoA generates an entire trajectory by explicit backward reasoning with task-specific goals through an action-level Chain-of-Thought (CoT) process. This process is unified within a single autoregressive structure: (1) the first token corresponds to a stable keyframe action that encodes the task-specific goals; and (2) subsequent action tokens are generated autoregressively, conditioned on the initial keyframe and previously predicted actions. This backward action reasoning enforces a global-to-local structure, allowing each local action to be tightly constrained by the final goal. To further realize the action reasoning structure, CoA incorporates four complementary designs: continuous action token representation; dynamic stopping for variable-length trajectory generation; reverse temporal ensemble; and multi-token prediction to balance action chunk modeling with global structure. As a result, CoA gives strong spatial generalization capabilities while preserving the flexibility and simplicity of a visuo-motor policy. Empirically, we observe CoA achieves the state-of-the-art performance across 60 RLBench tasks and 8 real-world manipulation tasks.

Accurate prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events recurrence risk in acute myocardial infarction patients based on postoperative cardiac MRI and associated clinical notes is crucial for precision treatment and personalized intervention. Existing methods primarily focus on risk stratification capability while overlooking the need for intermediate robust reasoning and model interpretability in clinical practice. Moreover, end-to-end risk prediction using LLM/VLM faces significant challenges due to data limitations and modeling complexity. To bridge this gap, we propose CardioCoT, a novel two-stage hierarchical reasoning-enhanced survival analysis framework designed to enhance both model interpretability and predictive performance. In the first stage, we employ an evidence-augmented self-refinement mechanism to guide LLM/VLMs in generating robust hierarchical reasoning trajectories based on associated radiological findings. In the second stage, we integrate the reasoning trajectories with imaging data for risk model training and prediction. CardioCoT demonstrates superior performance in MACE recurrence risk prediction while providing interpretable reasoning processes, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making.

We investigate the problem of stochastic, combinatorial multi-armed bandits where the learner only has access to bandit feedback and the reward function can be non-linear. We provide a general framework for adapting discrete offline approximation algorithms into sublinear alpha-regret methods that only require bandit feedback, achieving Oleft(T^2{3}log(T)^1{3}right) expected cumulative alpha-regret dependence on the horizon T. The framework only requires the offline algorithms to be robust to small errors in function evaluation. The adaptation procedure does not even require explicit knowledge of the offline approximation algorithm -- the offline algorithm can be used as black box subroutine. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework, the proposed framework is applied to multiple problems in submodular maximization, adapting approximation algorithms for cardinality and for knapsack constraints. The new CMAB algorithms for knapsack constraints outperform a full-bandit method developed for the adversarial setting in experiments with real-world data.

Implementing a reward function that perfectly captures a complex task in the real world is impractical. As a result, it is often appropriate to think of the reward function as a proxy for the true objective rather than as its definition. We study this phenomenon through the lens of Goodhart's law, which predicts that increasing optimisation of an imperfect proxy beyond some critical point decreases performance on the true objective. First, we propose a way to quantify the magnitude of this effect and show empirically that optimising an imperfect proxy reward often leads to the behaviour predicted by Goodhart's law for a wide range of environments and reward functions. We then provide a geometric explanation for why Goodhart's law occurs in Markov decision processes. We use these theoretical insights to propose an optimal early stopping method that provably avoids the aforementioned pitfall and derive theoretical regret bounds for this method. Moreover, we derive a training method that maximises worst-case reward, for the setting where there is uncertainty about the true reward function. Finally, we evaluate our early stopping method experimentally. Our results support a foundation for a theoretically-principled study of reinforcement learning under reward misspecification.

Most offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms return a target policy maximizing a trade-off between (1) the expected performance gain over the behavior policy that collected the dataset, and (2) the risk stemming from the out-of-distribution-ness of the induced state-action occupancy. It follows that the performance of the target policy is strongly related to the performance of the behavior policy and, thus, the trajectory return distribution of the dataset. We show that in mixed datasets consisting of mostly low-return trajectories and minor high-return trajectories, state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms are overly restrained by low-return trajectories and fail to exploit high-performing trajectories to the fullest. To overcome this issue, we show that, in deterministic MDPs with stochastic initial states, the dataset sampling can be re-weighted to induce an artificial dataset whose behavior policy has a higher return. This re-weighted sampling strategy may be combined with any offline RL algorithm. We further analyze that the opportunity for performance improvement over the behavior policy correlates with the positive-sided variance of the returns of the trajectories in the dataset. We empirically show that while CQL, IQL, and TD3+BC achieve only a part of this potential policy improvement, these same algorithms combined with our reweighted sampling strategy fully exploit the dataset. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that, despite its theoretical limitation, the approach may still be efficient in stochastic environments. The code is available at https://github.com/Improbable-AI/harness-offline-rl.