Daily Papers

Latent Consistency Model (LCM) extends the Consistency Model to the latent space and leverages the guided consistency distillation technique to achieve impressive performance in accelerating text-to-image synthesis. However, we observed that LCM struggles to generate images with both clarity and detailed intricacy. To address this limitation, we initially delve into and elucidate the underlying causes. Our investigation identifies that the primary issue stems from errors in three distinct areas. Consequently, we introduce Trajectory Consistency Distillation (TCD), which encompasses trajectory consistency function and strategic stochastic sampling. The trajectory consistency function diminishes the distillation errors by broadening the scope of the self-consistency boundary condition and endowing the TCD with the ability to accurately trace the entire trajectory of the Probability Flow ODE. Additionally, strategic stochastic sampling is specifically designed to circumvent the accumulated errors inherent in multi-step consistency sampling, which is meticulously tailored to complement the TCD model. Experiments demonstrate that TCD not only significantly enhances image quality at low NFEs but also yields more detailed results compared to the teacher model at high NFEs.

The integration of online reinforcement learning (RL) into diffusion and flow models has recently emerged as a promising approach for aligning generative models with human preferences. Stochastic sampling via Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) is employed during the denoising process to generate diverse denoising directions for RL exploration. While existing methods effectively explore potential high-value samples, they suffer from sub-optimal preference alignment due to sparse and narrow reward signals. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Granular-GRPO (G^2RPO ) framework that achieves precise and comprehensive reward assessments of sampling directions in reinforcement learning of flow models. Specifically, a Singular Stochastic Sampling strategy is introduced to support step-wise stochastic exploration while enforcing a high correlation between the reward and the injected noise, thereby facilitating a faithful reward for each SDE perturbation. Concurrently, to eliminate the bias inherent in fixed-granularity denoising, we introduce a Multi-Granularity Advantage Integration module that aggregates advantages computed at multiple diffusion scales, producing a more comprehensive and robust evaluation of the sampling directions. Experiments conducted on various reward models, including both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations, demonstrate that our G^2RPO significantly outperforms existing flow-based GRPO baselines,highlighting its effectiveness and robustness.

Generative machine learning methods, such as diffusion models and flow matching, have shown great potential in modeling complex system behaviors and building efficient surrogate models. However, these methods typically learn the underlying physics implicitly from data. We propose Physics-Based Flow Matching (PBFM), a novel generative framework that explicitly embeds physical constraints, both PDE residuals and algebraic relations, into the flow matching objective. We also introduce temporal unrolling at training time that improves the accuracy of the final, noise-free sample prediction. Our method jointly minimizes the flow matching loss and the physics-based residual loss without requiring hyperparameter tuning of their relative weights. Additionally, we analyze the role of the minimum noise level, sigma_{min}, in the context of physical constraints and evaluate a stochastic sampling strategy that helps to reduce physical residuals. Through extensive benchmarks on three representative PDE problems, we show that our approach yields up to an 8times more accurate physical residuals compared to FM, while clearly outperforming existing algorithms in terms of distributional accuracy. PBFM thus provides a principled and efficient framework for surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, and accelerated simulation in physics and engineering applications.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

Generative policies trained with human demonstrations can autonomously accomplish multimodal, long-horizon tasks. However, during inference, humans are often removed from the policy execution loop, limiting the ability to guide a pre-trained policy towards a specific sub-goal or trajectory shape among multiple predictions. Naive human intervention may inadvertently exacerbate distribution shift, leading to constraint violations or execution failures. To better align policy output with human intent without inducing out-of-distribution errors, we propose an Inference-Time Policy Steering (ITPS) framework that leverages human interactions to bias the generative sampling process, rather than fine-tuning the policy on interaction data. We evaluate ITPS across three simulated and real-world benchmarks, testing three forms of human interaction and associated alignment distance metrics. Among six sampling strategies, our proposed stochastic sampling with diffusion policy achieves the best trade-off between alignment and distribution shift. Videos are available at https://yanweiw.github.io/itps/.

Applying reinforcement learning (RL) to combinatorial optimization problems is attractive as it removes the need for expert knowledge or pre-solved instances. However, it is unrealistic to expect an agent to solve these (often NP-)hard problems in a single shot at inference due to their inherent complexity. Thus, leading approaches often implement additional search strategies, from stochastic sampling and beam search to explicit fine-tuning. In this paper, we argue for the benefits of learning a population of complementary policies, which can be simultaneously rolled out at inference. To this end, we introduce Poppy, a simple training procedure for populations. Instead of relying on a predefined or hand-crafted notion of diversity, Poppy induces an unsupervised specialization targeted solely at maximizing the performance of the population. We show that Poppy produces a set of complementary policies, and obtains state-of-the-art RL results on four popular NP-hard problems: traveling salesman, capacitated vehicle routing, 0-1 knapsack, and job-shop scheduling.

We examine a simple stochastic strategy for adapting well-known single-point acquisition functions to allow batch active learning. Unlike acquiring the top-K points from the pool set, score- or rank-based sampling takes into account that acquisition scores change as new data are acquired. This simple strategy for adapting standard single-sample acquisition strategies can even perform just as well as compute-intensive state-of-the-art batch acquisition functions, like BatchBALD or BADGE, while using orders of magnitude less compute. In addition to providing a practical option for machine learning practitioners, the surprising success of the proposed method in a wide range of experimental settings raises a difficult question for the field: when are these expensive batch acquisition methods pulling their weight?

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning in large language models (LLMs) can be formalized as a latent variable problem, where the model needs to generate intermediate reasoning steps. While prior approaches such as iterative reward-ranked fine-tuning (RAFT) have relied on such formulations, they typically apply uniform inference budgets across prompts, which fails to account for variability in difficulty and convergence behavior. This work identifies the main bottleneck in CoT training as inefficient stochastic gradient estimation due to static sampling strategies. We propose GVM-RAFT, a prompt-specific Dynamic Sample Allocation Strategy designed to minimize stochastic gradient variance under a computational budget constraint. The method dynamically allocates computational resources by monitoring prompt acceptance rates and stochastic gradient norms, ensuring that the resulting gradient variance is minimized. Our theoretical analysis shows that the proposed dynamic sampling strategy leads to accelerated convergence guarantees under suitable conditions. Experiments on mathematical reasoning show that GVM-RAFT achieves a 2-4x speedup and considerable accuracy improvements over vanilla RAFT. The proposed dynamic sampling strategy is general and can be incorporated into other reinforcement learning algorithms, such as GRPO, leading to similar improvements in convergence and test accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/RLHFlow/GVM.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Parallel test-time scaling (TTS) is a pivotal approach for enhancing large language models (LLMs), typically by sampling multiple token-based chains-of-thought in parallel and aggregating outcomes through voting or search. Recent advances in latent reasoning, where intermediate reasoning unfolds in continuous vector spaces, offer a more efficient alternative to explicit Chain-of-Thought, yet whether such latent models can similarly benefit from parallel TTS remains open, mainly due to the absence of sampling mechanisms in continuous space, and the lack of probabilistic signals for advanced trajectory aggregation. \ This work enables parallel TTS for latent reasoning models by addressing the above issues. For sampling, we introduce two uncertainty-inspired stochastic strategies: Monte Carlo Dropout and Additive Gaussian Noise. For aggregation, we design a Latent Reward Model (LatentRM) trained with step-wise contrastive objective to score and guide latent reasoning. Extensive experiments and visualization analyses show that both sampling strategies scale effectively with compute and exhibit distinct exploration dynamics, while LatentRM enables effective trajectory selection. Together, our explorations open a new direction for scalable inference in continuous spaces. Code released at https://github.com/YRYangang/LatentTTS.

Deep learning techniques have provided significant improvements in hyperspectral image (HSI) classification. The current deep learning based HSI classifiers follow a patch-based learning framework by dividing the image into overlapping patches. As such, these methods are local learning methods, which have a high computational cost. In this paper, a fast patch-free global learning (FPGA) framework is proposed for HSI classification. In FPGA, an encoder-decoder based FCN is utilized to consider the global spatial information by processing the whole image, which results in fast inference. However, it is difficult to directly utilize the encoder-decoder based FCN for HSI classification as it always fails to converge due to the insufficiently diverse gradients caused by the limited training samples. To solve the divergence problem and maintain the abilities of FCN of fast inference and global spatial information mining, a global stochastic stratified sampling strategy is first proposed by transforming all the training samples into a stochastic sequence of stratified samples. This strategy can obtain diverse gradients to guarantee the convergence of the FCN in the FPGA framework. For a better design of FCN architecture, FreeNet, which is a fully end-to-end network for HSI classification, is proposed to maximize the exploitation of the global spatial information and boost the performance via a spectral attention based encoder and a lightweight decoder. A lateral connection module is also designed to connect the encoder and decoder, fusing the spatial details in the encoder and the semantic features in the decoder. The experimental results obtained using three public benchmark datasets suggest that the FPGA framework is superior to the patch-based framework in both speed and accuracy for HSI classification. Code has been made available at: https://github.com/Z-Zheng/FreeNet.

We show how to obtain improved active learning methods in the agnostic (adversarial noise) setting by combining marginal leverage score sampling with non-independent sampling strategies that promote spatial coverage. In particular, we propose an easily implemented method based on the pivotal sampling algorithm, which we test on problems motivated by learning-based methods for parametric PDEs and uncertainty quantification. In comparison to independent sampling, our method reduces the number of samples needed to reach a given target accuracy by up to 50%. We support our findings with two theoretical results. First, we show that any non-independent leverage score sampling method that obeys a weak one-sided ell_{infty} independence condition (which includes pivotal sampling) can actively learn d dimensional linear functions with O(dlog d) samples, matching independent sampling. This result extends recent work on matrix Chernoff bounds under ell_{infty} independence, and may be of interest for analyzing other sampling strategies beyond pivotal sampling. Second, we show that, for the important case of polynomial regression, our pivotal method obtains an improved bound of O(d) samples.

Stochastic optimization is one of the central problems in Machine Learning and Theoretical Computer Science. In the standard model, the algorithm is given a fixed distribution known in advance. In practice though, one may acquire at a cost extra information to make better decisions. In this paper, we study how to buy information for stochastic optimization and formulate this question as an online learning problem. Assuming the learner has an oracle for the original optimization problem, we design a 2-competitive deterministic algorithm and a e/(e-1)-competitive randomized algorithm for buying information. We show that this ratio is tight as the problem is equivalent to a robust generalization of the ski-rental problem, which we call super-martingale stopping. We also consider an adaptive setting where the learner can choose to buy information after taking some actions for the underlying optimization problem. We focus on the classic optimization problem, Min-Sum Set Cover, where the goal is to quickly find an action that covers a given request drawn from a known distribution. We provide an 8-competitive algorithm running in polynomial time that chooses actions and decides when to buy information about the underlying request.

Sampling is ubiquitous in machine learning methodologies. Due to the growth of large datasets and model complexity, we want to learn and adapt the sampling process while training a representation. Towards achieving this grand goal, a variety of sampling techniques have been proposed. However, most of them either use a fixed sampling scheme or adjust the sampling scheme based on simple heuristics. They cannot choose the best sample for model training in different stages. Inspired by "Think, Fast and Slow" (System 1 and System 2) in cognitive science, we propose a reward-guided sampling strategy called Adaptive Sample with Reward (ASR) to tackle this challenge. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work utilizing reinforcement learning (RL) to address the sampling problem in representation learning. Our approach optimally adjusts the sampling process to achieve optimal performance. We explore geographical relationships among samples by distance-based sampling to maximize overall cumulative reward. We apply ASR to the long-standing sampling problems in similarity-based loss functions. Empirical results in information retrieval and clustering demonstrate ASR's superb performance across different datasets. We also discuss an engrossing phenomenon which we name as "ASR gravity well" in experiments.

Beam search is the default decoding strategy for many sequence generation tasks in NLP. The set of approximate K-best items returned by the algorithm is a useful summary of the distribution for many applications; however, the candidates typically exhibit high overlap and may give a highly biased estimate for expectations under our model. These problems can be addressed by instead using stochastic decoding strategies. In this work, we propose a new method for turning beam search into a stochastic process: Conditional Poisson stochastic beam search. Rather than taking the maximizing set at each iteration, we sample K candidates without replacement according to the conditional Poisson sampling design. We view this as a more natural alternative to Kool et. al. 2019's stochastic beam search (SBS). Furthermore, we show how samples generated under the CPSBS design can be used to build consistent estimators and sample diverse sets from sequence models. In our experiments, we observe CPSBS produces lower variance and more efficient estimators than SBS, even showing improvements in high entropy settings.

Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) have achieved considerable success in generation tasks. As sampling from DPMs is equivalent to solving diffusion SDE or ODE which is time-consuming, numerous fast sampling methods built upon improved differential equation solvers are proposed. The majority of such techniques consider solving the diffusion ODE due to its superior efficiency. However, stochastic sampling could offer additional advantages in generating diverse and high-quality data. In this work, we engage in a comprehensive analysis of stochastic sampling from two aspects: variance-controlled diffusion SDE and linear multi-step SDE solver. Based on our analysis, we propose SA-Solver, which is an improved efficient stochastic Adams method for solving diffusion SDE to generate data with high quality. Our experiments show that SA-Solver achieves: 1) improved or comparable performance compared with the existing state-of-the-art sampling methods for few-step sampling; 2) SOTA FID scores on substantial benchmark datasets under a suitable number of function evaluations (NFEs).

Multi-armed bandits a simple but very powerful framework for algorithms that make decisions over time under uncertainty. An enormous body of work has accumulated over the years, covered in several books and surveys. This book provides a more introductory, textbook-like treatment of the subject. Each chapter tackles a particular line of work, providing a self-contained, teachable technical introduction and a brief review of the further developments; many of the chapters conclude with exercises. The book is structured as follows. The first four chapters are on IID rewards, from the basic model to impossibility results to Bayesian priors to Lipschitz rewards. The next three chapters cover adversarial rewards, from the full-feedback version to adversarial bandits to extensions with linear rewards and combinatorially structured actions. Chapter 8 is on contextual bandits, a middle ground between IID and adversarial bandits in which the change in reward distributions is completely explained by observable contexts. The last three chapters cover connections to economics, from learning in repeated games to bandits with supply/budget constraints to exploration in the presence of incentives. The appendix provides sufficient background on concentration and KL-divergence. The chapters on "bandits with similarity information", "bandits with knapsacks" and "bandits and agents" can also be consumed as standalone surveys on the respective topics.

We study the problem of training diffusion models to sample from a distribution with a given unnormalized density or energy function. We benchmark several diffusion-structured inference methods, including simulation-based variational approaches and off-policy methods (continuous generative flow networks). Our results shed light on the relative advantages of existing algorithms while bringing into question some claims from past work. We also propose a novel exploration strategy for off-policy methods, based on local search in the target space with the use of a replay buffer, and show that it improves the quality of samples on a variety of target distributions. Our code for the sampling methods and benchmarks studied is made public at https://github.com/GFNOrg/gfn-diffusion as a base for future work on diffusion models for amortized inference.

We study a strategic variant of the multi-armed bandit problem, which we coin the strategic click-bandit. This model is motivated by applications in online recommendation where the choice of recommended items depends on both the click-through rates and the post-click rewards. Like in classical bandits, rewards follow a fixed unknown distribution. However, we assume that the click-rate of each arm is chosen strategically by the arm (e.g., a host on Airbnb) in order to maximize the number of times it gets clicked. The algorithm designer does not know the post-click rewards nor the arms' actions (i.e., strategically chosen click-rates) in advance, and must learn both values over time. To solve this problem, we design an incentive-aware learning algorithm, UCB-S, which achieves two goals simultaneously: (a) incentivizing desirable arm behavior under uncertainty; (b) minimizing regret by learning unknown parameters. We characterize all approximate Nash equilibria among arms under UCB-S and show a mathcal{O} (KT) regret bound uniformly in every equilibrium. We also show that incentive-unaware algorithms generally fail to achieve low regret in the strategic click-bandit. Finally, we support our theoretical results by simulations of strategic arm behavior which confirm the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed incentive design.

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

Major Internet advertising platforms offer budget pacing tools as a standard service for advertisers to manage their ad campaigns. Given the inherent non-stationarity in an advertiser's value and also competing advertisers' values over time, a commonly used approach is to learn a target expenditure plan that specifies a target spend as a function of time, and then run a controller that tracks this plan. This raises the question: how many historical samples are required to learn a good expenditure plan? We study this question by considering an advertiser repeatedly participating in T second-price auctions, where the tuple of her value and the highest competing bid is drawn from an unknown time-varying distribution. The advertiser seeks to maximize her total utility subject to her budget constraint. Prior work has shown the sufficiency of Tlog T samples per distribution to achieve the optimal O(T)-regret. We dramatically improve this state-of-the-art and show that just one sample per distribution is enough to achieve the near-optimal tilde O(T)-regret, while still being robust to noise in the sampling distributions.

In domains ranging from computer vision to natural language processing, machine learning models have been shown to exhibit stark disparities, often performing worse for members of traditionally underserved groups. One factor contributing to these performance gaps is a lack of representation in the data the models are trained on. It is often unclear, however, how to operationalize representativeness in specific applications. Here we formalize the problem of creating equitable training datasets, and propose a statistical framework for addressing this problem. We consider a setting where a model builder must decide how to allocate a fixed data collection budget to gather training data from different subgroups. We then frame dataset creation as a constrained optimization problem, in which one maximizes a function of group-specific performance metrics based on (estimated) group-specific learning rates and costs per sample. This flexible approach incorporates preferences of model-builders and other stakeholders, as well as the statistical properties of the learning task. When data collection decisions are made sequentially, we show that under certain conditions this optimization problem can be efficiently solved even without prior knowledge of the learning rates. To illustrate our approach, we conduct a simulation study of polygenic risk scores on synthetic genomic data -- an application domain that often suffers from non-representative data collection. We find that our adaptive sampling strategy outperforms several common data collection heuristics, including equal and proportional sampling, demonstrating the value of strategic dataset design for building equitable models.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

In Reinforcement Learning (RL), an agent acts in an unknown environment to maximize the expected cumulative discounted sum of an external reward signal, i.e., the expected return. In practice, in many tasks of interest, such as policy optimization, the agent usually spends its interaction budget by collecting episodes of fixed length within a simulator (i.e., Monte Carlo simulation). However, given the discounted nature of the RL objective, this data collection strategy might not be the best option. Indeed, the rewards taken in early simulation steps weigh exponentially more than future rewards. Taking a cue from this intuition, in this paper, we design an a-priori budget allocation strategy that leads to the collection of trajectories of different lengths, i.e., truncated. The proposed approach provably minimizes the width of the confidence intervals around the empirical estimates of the expected return of a policy. After discussing the theoretical properties of our method, we make use of our trajectory truncation mechanism to extend Policy Optimization via Importance Sampling (POIS, Metelli et al., 2018) algorithm. Finally, we conduct a numerical comparison between our algorithm and POIS: the results are consistent with our theory and show that an appropriate truncation of the trajectories can succeed in improving performance.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Task robust adaptation is a long-standing pursuit in sequential decision-making. Some risk-averse strategies, e.g., the conditional value-at-risk principle, are incorporated in domain randomization or meta reinforcement learning to prioritize difficult tasks in optimization, which demand costly intensive evaluations. The efficiency issue prompts the development of robust active task sampling to train adaptive policies, where risk-predictive models are used to surrogate policy evaluation. This work characterizes the optimization pipeline of robust active task sampling as a Markov decision process, posits theoretical and practical insights, and constitutes robustness concepts in risk-averse scenarios. Importantly, we propose an easy-to-implement method, referred to as Posterior and Diversity Synergized Task Sampling (PDTS), to accommodate fast and robust sequential decision-making. Extensive experiments show that PDTS unlocks the potential of robust active task sampling, significantly improves the zero-shot and few-shot adaptation robustness in challenging tasks, and even accelerates the learning process under certain scenarios. Our project website is at https://thu-rllab.github.io/PDTS_project_page.

We study a family of distributed stochastic optimization algorithms where gradients are sampled by a token traversing a network of agents in random-walk fashion. Typically, these random-walks are chosen to be Markov chains that asymptotically sample from a desired target distribution, and play a critical role in the convergence of the optimization iterates. In this paper, we take a novel approach by replacing the standard linear Markovian token by one which follows a nonlinear Markov chain - namely the Self-Repellent Radom Walk (SRRW). Defined for any given 'base' Markov chain, the SRRW, parameterized by a positive scalar {\alpha}, is less likely to transition to states that were highly visited in the past, thus the name. In the context of MCMC sampling on a graph, a recent breakthrough in Doshi et al. (2023) shows that the SRRW achieves O(1/{\alpha}) decrease in the asymptotic variance for sampling. We propose the use of a 'generalized' version of the SRRW to drive token algorithms for distributed stochastic optimization in the form of stochastic approximation, termed SA-SRRW. We prove that the optimization iterate errors of the resulting SA-SRRW converge to zero almost surely and prove a central limit theorem, deriving the explicit form of the resulting asymptotic covariance matrix corresponding to iterate errors. This asymptotic covariance is always smaller than that of an algorithm driven by the base Markov chain and decreases at rate O(1/{\alpha}^2) - the performance benefit of using SRRW thereby amplified in the stochastic optimization context. Empirical results support our theoretical findings.

Motivated by the phenomenon of strategic agents gaming a recommender system to maximize the number of times they are recommended to users, we study a strategic variant of the linear contextual bandit problem, where the arms can strategically misreport privately observed contexts to the learner. We treat the algorithm design problem as one of mechanism design under uncertainty and propose the Optimistic Grim Trigger Mechanism (OptGTM) that incentivizes the agents (i.e., arms) to report their contexts truthfully while simultaneously minimizing regret. We also show that failing to account for the strategic nature of the agents results in linear regret. However, a trade-off between mechanism design and regret minimization appears to be unavoidable. More broadly, this work aims to provide insight into the intersection of online learning and mechanism design.

During 2023, two interesting results were proven about the limit behavior of game dynamics: First, it was shown that there is a game for which no dynamics converges to the Nash equilibria. Second, it was shown that the sink equilibria of a game adequately capture the limit behavior of natural game dynamics. These two results have created a need and opportunity to articulate a principled computational theory of the meaning of the game that is based on game dynamics. Given any game in normal form, and any prior distribution of play, we study the problem of computing the asymptotic behavior of a class of natural dynamics called the noisy replicator dynamics as a limit distribution over the sink equilibria of the game. When the prior distribution has pure strategy support, we prove this distribution can be computed efficiently, in near-linear time to the size of the best-response graph. When the distribution can be sampled -- for example, if it is the uniform distribution over all mixed strategy profiles -- we show through experiments that the limit distribution of reasonably large games can be estimated quite accurately through sampling and simulation.

The human intrinsic desire to pursue knowledge, also known as curiosity, is considered essential in the process of skill acquisition. With the aid of artificial curiosity, we could equip current techniques for control, such as Reinforcement Learning, with more natural exploration capabilities. A promising approach in this respect has consisted of using Bayesian surprise on model parameters, i.e. a metric for the difference between prior and posterior beliefs, to favour exploration. In this contribution, we propose to apply Bayesian surprise in a latent space representing the agent's current understanding of the dynamics of the system, drastically reducing the computational costs. We extensively evaluate our method by measuring the agent's performance in terms of environment exploration, for continuous tasks, and looking at the game scores achieved, for video games. Our model is computationally cheap and compares positively with current state-of-the-art methods on several problems. We also investigate the effects caused by stochasticity in the environment, which is often a failure case for curiosity-driven agents. In this regime, the results suggest that our approach is resilient to stochastic transitions.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

We study the problem of designing mechanisms for information acquisition scenarios. This setting models strategic interactions between an uniformed receiver and a set of informed senders. In our model the senders receive information about the underlying state of nature and communicate their observation (either truthfully or not) to the receiver, which, based on this information, selects an action. Our goal is to design mechanisms maximizing the receiver's utility while incentivizing the senders to report truthfully their information. First, we provide an algorithm that efficiently computes an optimal incentive compatible (IC) mechanism. Then, we focus on the online problem in which the receiver sequentially interacts in an unknown game, with the objective of minimizing the cumulative regret w.r.t. the optimal IC mechanism, and the cumulative violation of the incentive compatibility constraints. We investigate two different online scenarios, i.e., the full and bandit feedback settings. For the full feedback problem, we propose an algorithm that guarantees mathcal O(sqrt T) regret and violation, while for the bandit feedback setting we present an algorithm that attains mathcal O(T^{alpha}) regret and mathcal O(T^{1-alpha/2}) violation for any alphain[1/2, 1]. Finally, we complement our results providing a tight lower bound.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has recently emerged as a powerful technique for improving image and video generation in Diffusion and Flow Matching models, specifically for enhancing output quality and alignment with prompts. A critical step for applying online RL methods on Flow Matching is the introduction of stochasticity into the deterministic framework, commonly realized by Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE). Our investigation reveals a significant drawback to this approach: SDE-based sampling introduces pronounced noise artifacts in the generated images, which we found to be detrimental to the reward learning process. A rigorous theoretical analysis traces the origin of this noise to an excess of stochasticity injected during inference. To address this, we draw inspiration from Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIM) to reformulate the sampling process. Our proposed method, Coefficients-Preserving Sampling (CPS), eliminates these noise artifacts. This leads to more accurate reward modeling, ultimately enabling faster and more stable convergence for reinforcement learning-based optimizers like Flow-GRPO and Dance-GRPO. Code will be released at https://github.com/IamCreateAI/FlowCPS

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

We consider the stochastic linear contextual bandit problem with high-dimensional features. We analyze the Thompson sampling algorithm using special classes of sparsity-inducing priors (e.g., spike-and-slab) to model the unknown parameter and provide a nearly optimal upper bound on the expected cumulative regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides theoretical guarantees of Thompson sampling in high-dimensional and sparse contextual bandits. For faster computation, we use variational inference instead of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution. Extensive simulations demonstrate the improved performance of our proposed algorithm over existing ones.

The deployment of ever-larger machine learning models reflects a growing consensus that the more expressive the modelx2013and the more data one has access tox2013the more one can improve performance. As models get deployed in a variety of real world scenarios, they inevitably face strategic environments. In this work, we consider the natural question of how the interplay of models and strategic interactions affects scaling laws. We find that strategic interactions can break the conventional view of scaling lawsx2013meaning that performance does not necessarily monotonically improve as models get larger and/ or more expressive (even with infinite data). We show the implications of this phenomenon in several contexts including strategic regression, strategic classification, and multi-agent reinforcement learning through examples of strategic environments in whichx2013by simply restricting the expressivity of one's model or policy classx2013one can achieve strictly better equilibrium outcomes. Motivated by these examples, we then propose a new paradigm for model-selection in games wherein an agent seeks to choose amongst different model classes to use as their action set in a game.

Frontier reasoning models have exhibited incredible capabilities across a wide array of disciplines, driven by posttraining large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL). However, despite the widespread success of this paradigm, much of the literature has been devoted to disentangling truly novel behaviors that emerge during RL but are not present in the base models. In our work, we approach this question from a different angle, instead asking whether comparable reasoning capabilites can be elicited from base models at inference time by pure sampling, without any additional training. Inspired by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for sampling from sharpened distributions, we propose a simple iterative sampling algorithm leveraging the base models' own likelihoods. Over different base models, we show that our algorithm offers substantial boosts in reasoning that nearly match and even outperform those from RL on a wide variety of single-shot tasks, including MATH500, HumanEval, and GPQA. Moreover, our sampler avoids the collapse in diversity over multiple samples that is characteristic of RL-posttraining. Crucially, our method does not require training, curated datasets, or a verifier, suggesting broad applicability beyond easily verifiable domains.

To optimally coordinate with others in cooperative games, it is often crucial to have information about one's collaborators: successful driving requires understanding which side of the road to drive on. However, not every feature of collaborators is strategically relevant: the fine-grained acceleration of drivers may be ignored while maintaining optimal coordination. We show that there is a well-defined dichotomy between strategically relevant and irrelevant information. Moreover, we show that, in dynamic games, this dichotomy has a compact representation that can be efficiently computed via a Bellman backup operator. We apply this algorithm to analyze the strategically relevant information for tasks in both a standard and a partially observable version of the Overcooked environment. Theoretical and empirical results show that our algorithms are significantly more efficient than baselines. Videos are available at https://minknowledge.github.io.

Competitions for shareable and limited resources have long been studied with strategic agents. In reality, agents often have to learn and maximize the rewards of the resources at the same time. To design an individualized competing policy, we model the competition between agents in a novel multi-player multi-armed bandit (MPMAB) setting where players are selfish and aim to maximize their own rewards. In addition, when several players pull the same arm, we assume that these players averagely share the arms' rewards by expectation. Under this setting, we first analyze the Nash equilibrium when arms' rewards are known. Subsequently, we propose a novel SelfishMPMAB with Averaging Allocation (SMAA) approach based on the equilibrium. We theoretically demonstrate that SMAA could achieve a good regret guarantee for each player when all players follow the algorithm. Additionally, we establish that no single selfish player can significantly increase their rewards through deviation, nor can they detrimentally affect other players' rewards without incurring substantial losses for themselves. We finally validate the effectiveness of the method in extensive synthetic experiments.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

The iterative sampling procedure employed by diffusion models (DMs) often leads to significant inference latency. To address this, we propose Stochastic Consistency Distillation (SCott) to enable accelerated text-to-image generation, where high-quality generations can be achieved with just 1-2 sampling steps, and further improvements can be obtained by adding additional steps. In contrast to vanilla consistency distillation (CD) which distills the ordinary differential equation solvers-based sampling process of a pretrained teacher model into a student, SCott explores the possibility and validates the efficacy of integrating stochastic differential equation (SDE) solvers into CD to fully unleash the potential of the teacher. SCott is augmented with elaborate strategies to control the noise strength and sampling process of the SDE solver. An adversarial loss is further incorporated to strengthen the sample quality with rare sampling steps. Empirically, on the MSCOCO-2017 5K dataset with a Stable Diffusion-V1.5 teacher, SCott achieves an FID (Frechet Inceptio Distance) of 22.1, surpassing that (23.4) of the 1-step InstaFlow (Liu et al., 2023) and matching that of 4-step UFOGen (Xue et al., 2023b). Moreover, SCott can yield more diverse samples than other consistency models for high-resolution image generation (Luo et al., 2023a), with up to 16% improvement in a qualified metric. The code and checkpoints are coming soon.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

Experience replay is a key component in reinforcement learning for stabilizing learning and improving sample efficiency. Its typical implementation samples transitions with replacement from a replay buffer. In contrast, in supervised learning with a fixed dataset, it is a common practice to shuffle the dataset every epoch and consume data sequentially, which is called random reshuffling (RR). RR enjoys theoretically better convergence properties and has been shown to outperform with-replacement sampling empirically. To leverage the benefits of RR in reinforcement learning, we propose sampling methods that extend RR to experience replay, both in uniform and prioritized settings. We evaluate our sampling methods on Atari benchmarks, demonstrating their effectiveness in deep reinforcement learning.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

Playing games has a long history of describing intricate interactions in simplified forms. In this paper we explore if large language models (LLMs) can play games, investigating their capabilities for randomisation and strategic adaptation through both simultaneous and sequential game interactions. We focus on GPT-4o-Mini-2024-08-17 and test two games between LLMs: Rock Paper Scissors (RPS) and games of strategy (Prisoners Dilemma PD). LLMs are often described as stochastic parrots, and while they may indeed be parrots, our results suggest that they are not very stochastic in the sense that their outputs - when prompted to be random - are often very biased. Our research reveals that LLMs appear to develop loss aversion strategies in repeated games, with RPS converging to stalemate conditions while PD shows systematic shifts between cooperative and competitive outcomes based on prompt design. We detail programmatic tools for independent agent interactions and the Agentic AI challenges faced in implementation. We show that LLMs can indeed play games, just not very well. These results have implications for the use of LLMs in multi-agent LLM systems and showcase limitations in current approaches to model output for strategic decision-making.

We propose a new method for count-based exploration in high-dimensional state spaces. Unlike previous work which relies on density models, we show that counts can be derived by averaging samples from the Rademacher distribution (or coin flips). This insight is used to set up a simple supervised learning objective which, when optimized, yields a state's visitation count. We show that our method is significantly more effective at deducing ground-truth visitation counts than previous work; when used as an exploration bonus for a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm, it outperforms existing approaches on most of 9 challenging exploration tasks, including the Atari game Montezuma's Revenge.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

We present a scalable and effective exploration strategy based on Thompson sampling for reinforcement learning (RL). One of the key shortcomings of existing Thompson sampling algorithms is the need to perform a Gaussian approximation of the posterior distribution, which is not a good surrogate in most practical settings. We instead directly sample the Q function from its posterior distribution, by using Langevin Monte Carlo, an efficient type of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Our method only needs to perform noisy gradient descent updates to learn the exact posterior distribution of the Q function, which makes our approach easy to deploy in deep RL. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis for the proposed method and demonstrate that, in the linear Markov decision process (linear MDP) setting, it has a regret bound of O(d^{3/2}H^{3/2}T), where d is the dimension of the feature mapping, H is the planning horizon, and T is the total number of steps. We apply this approach to deep RL, by using Adam optimizer to perform gradient updates. Our approach achieves better or similar results compared with state-of-the-art deep RL algorithms on several challenging exploration tasks from the Atari57 suite.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

The choice of batch sizes in stochastic gradient optimizers is critical for model training. However, the practice of varying batch sizes throughout the training process is less explored compared to other hyperparameters. We investigate adaptive batch size strategies derived from adaptive sampling methods, traditionally applied only in stochastic gradient descent. Given the significant interplay between learning rates and batch sizes, and considering the prevalence of adaptive gradient methods in deep learning, we emphasize the need for adaptive batch size strategies in these contexts. We introduce AdAdaGrad and its scalar variant AdAdaGradNorm, which incrementally increase batch sizes during training, while model updates are performed using AdaGrad and AdaGradNorm. We prove that AdaGradNorm converges with high probability at a rate of O(1/K) for finding a first-order stationary point of smooth nonconvex functions within K iterations. AdaGrad also demonstrates similar convergence properties when integrated with a novel coordinate-wise variant of our adaptive batch size strategies. Our theoretical claims are supported by numerical experiments on various image classification tasks, highlighting the enhanced adaptability of progressive batching protocols in deep learning and the potential of such adaptive batch size strategies with adaptive gradient optimizers in large-scale model training.

We propose Flow-GRPO, the first method integrating online reinforcement learning (RL) into flow matching models. Our approach uses two key strategies: (1) an ODE-to-SDE conversion that transforms a deterministic Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) into an equivalent Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) that matches the original model's marginal distribution at all timesteps, enabling statistical sampling for RL exploration; and (2) a Denoising Reduction strategy that reduces training denoising steps while retaining the original inference timestep number, significantly improving sampling efficiency without performance degradation. Empirically, Flow-GRPO is effective across multiple text-to-image tasks. For complex compositions, RL-tuned SD3.5 generates nearly perfect object counts, spatial relations, and fine-grained attributes, boosting GenEval accuracy from 63% to 95%. In visual text rendering, its accuracy improves from 59% to 92%, significantly enhancing text generation. Flow-GRPO also achieves substantial gains in human preference alignment. Notably, little to no reward hacking occurred, meaning rewards did not increase at the cost of image quality or diversity, and both remained stable in our experiments.

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative models in the text-to-image domain. This paper studies their application as observation-to-action models for imitating human behaviour in sequential environments. Human behaviour is stochastic and multimodal, with structured correlations between action dimensions. Meanwhile, standard modelling choices in behaviour cloning are limited in their expressiveness and may introduce bias into the cloned policy. We begin by pointing out the limitations of these choices. We then propose that diffusion models are an excellent fit for imitating human behaviour, since they learn an expressive distribution over the joint action space. We introduce several innovations to make diffusion models suitable for sequential environments; designing suitable architectures, investigating the role of guidance, and developing reliable sampling strategies. Experimentally, diffusion models closely match human demonstrations in a simulated robotic control task and a modern 3D gaming environment.

Although GRPO substantially enhances flow matching models in human preference alignment of image generation, methods such as FlowGRPO still exhibit inefficiency due to the necessity of sampling and optimizing over all denoising steps specified by the Markov Decision Process (MDP). In this paper, we propose MixGRPO, a novel framework that leverages the flexibility of mixed sampling strategies through the integration of stochastic differential equations (SDE) and ordinary differential equations (ODE). This streamlines the optimization process within the MDP to improve efficiency and boost performance. Specifically, MixGRPO introduces a sliding window mechanism, using SDE sampling and GRPO-guided optimization only within the window, while applying ODE sampling outside. This design confines sampling randomness to the time-steps within the window, thereby reducing the optimization overhead, and allowing for more focused gradient updates to accelerate convergence. Additionally, as time-steps beyond the sliding window are not involved in optimization, higher-order solvers are supported for sampling. So we present a faster variant, termed MixGRPO-Flash, which further improves training efficiency while achieving comparable performance. MixGRPO exhibits substantial gains across multiple dimensions of human preference alignment, outperforming DanceGRPO in both effectiveness and efficiency, with nearly 50% lower training time. Notably, MixGRPO-Flash further reduces training time by 71%. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/Tencent-Hunyuan/MixGRPO{MixGRPO}.

We consider the combinatorial bandits problem with semi-bandit feedback under finite sampling budget constraints, in which the learner can carry out its action only for a limited number of times specified by an overall budget. The action is to choose a set of arms, whereupon feedback for each arm in the chosen set is received. Unlike existing works, we study this problem in a non-stochastic setting with subset-dependent feedback, i.e., the semi-bandit feedback received could be generated by an oblivious adversary and also might depend on the chosen set of arms. In addition, we consider a general feedback scenario covering both the numerical-based as well as preference-based case and introduce a sound theoretical framework for this setting guaranteeing sensible notions of optimal arms, which a learner seeks to find. We suggest a generic algorithm suitable to cover the full spectrum of conceivable arm elimination strategies from aggressive to conservative. Theoretical questions about the sufficient and necessary budget of the algorithm to find the best arm are answered and complemented by deriving lower bounds for any learning algorithm for this problem scenario.

Given a (machine learning) classifier and a collection of unlabeled data, how can we efficiently identify misclassification patterns presented in this dataset? To address this problem, we propose a human-machine collaborative framework that consists of a team of human annotators and a sequential recommendation algorithm. The recommendation algorithm is conceptualized as a stochastic sampler that, in each round, queries the annotators a subset of samples for their true labels and obtains the feedback information on whether the samples are misclassified. The sampling mechanism needs to balance between discovering new patterns of misclassification (exploration) and confirming the potential patterns of classification (exploitation). We construct a determinantal point process, whose intensity balances the exploration-exploitation trade-off through the weighted update of the posterior at each round to form the generator of the stochastic sampler. The numerical results empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of our framework on multiple datasets at various signal-to-noise ratios.

In this paper, we introduce the Preselection Bandit problem, in which the learner preselects a subset of arms (choice alternatives) for a user, which then chooses the final arm from this subset. The learner is not aware of the user's preferences, but can learn them from observed choices. In our concrete setting, we allow these choices to be stochastic and model the user's actions by means of the Plackett-Luce model. The learner's main task is to preselect subsets that eventually lead to highly preferred choices. To formalize this goal, we introduce a reasonable notion of regret and derive lower bounds on the expected regret. Moreover, we propose algorithms for which the upper bound on expected regret matches the lower bound up to a logarithmic term of the time horizon.

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm is designed to carefully balance between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learner's interaction with the environment. To capture realistic bandit scenarios, we also propose a novel diffusion model training procedure that trains even from incomplete and/or noisy data, which could be of independent interest. Finally, our extensive experimental evaluations clearly demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

Diffusion models (DMs) have established themselves as the state-of-the-art generative modeling approach in the visual domain and beyond. A crucial drawback of DMs is their slow sampling speed, relying on many sequential function evaluations through large neural networks. Sampling from DMs can be seen as solving a differential equation through a discretized set of noise levels known as the sampling schedule. While past works primarily focused on deriving efficient solvers, little attention has been given to finding optimal sampling schedules, and the entire literature relies on hand-crafted heuristics. In this work, for the first time, we propose a general and principled approach to optimizing the sampling schedules of DMs for high-quality outputs, called Align Your Steps. We leverage methods from stochastic calculus and find optimal schedules specific to different solvers, trained DMs and datasets. We evaluate our novel approach on several image, video as well as 2D toy data synthesis benchmarks, using a variety of different samplers, and observe that our optimized schedules outperform previous hand-crafted schedules in almost all experiments. Our method demonstrates the untapped potential of sampling schedule optimization, especially in the few-step synthesis regime.

Large multimodal reasoning models have achieved rapid progress, but their advancement is constrained by two major limitations: the absence of open, large-scale, high-quality long chain-of-thought (CoT) data, and the instability of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in post-training. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), the standard framework for RL fine-tuning, is prone to gradient vanishing when reward variance is low, which weakens optimization signals and impairs convergence. This work makes three contributions: (1) We propose Variance-Aware Sampling (VAS), a data selection strategy guided by Variance Promotion Score (VPS) that combines outcome variance and trajectory diversity to promote reward variance and stabilize policy optimization. (2) We release large-scale, carefully curated resources containing ~1.6M long CoT cold-start data and ~15k RL QA pairs, designed to ensure quality, difficulty, and diversity, along with a fully reproducible end-to-end training codebase. (3) We open-source a family of multimodal reasoning models in multiple scales, establishing standardized baselines for the community. Experiments across mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both the curated data and the proposed VAS. Comprehensive ablation studies and analyses provide further insight into the contributions of each component. In addition, we theoretically establish that reward variance lower-bounds the expected policy gradient magnitude, with VAS serving as a practical mechanism to realize this guarantee. Our code, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/LengSicong/MMR1.

We present a novel quasi-Monte Carlo mechanism to improve graph-based sampling, coined repelling random walks. By inducing correlations between the trajectories of an interacting ensemble such that their marginal transition probabilities are unmodified, we are able to explore the graph more efficiently, improving the concentration of statistical estimators whilst leaving them unbiased. The mechanism has a trivial drop-in implementation. We showcase the effectiveness of repelling random walks in a range of settings including estimation of graph kernels, the PageRank vector and graphlet concentrations. We provide detailed experimental evaluation and robust theoretical guarantees. To our knowledge, repelling random walks constitute the first rigorously studied quasi-Monte Carlo scheme correlating the directions of walkers on a graph, inviting new research in this exciting nascent domain.

We advance the study of incentivized bandit exploration, in which arm choices are viewed as recommendations and are required to be Bayesian incentive compatible. Recent work has shown under certain independence assumptions that after collecting enough initial samples, the popular Thompson sampling algorithm becomes incentive compatible. We give an analog of this result for linear bandits, where the independence of the prior is replaced by a natural convexity condition. This opens up the possibility of efficient and regret-optimal incentivized exploration in high-dimensional action spaces. In the semibandit model, we also improve the sample complexity for the pre-Thompson sampling phase of initial data collection.

We introduce GUIDE, a novel continual learning approach that directs diffusion models to rehearse samples at risk of being forgotten. Existing generative strategies combat catastrophic forgetting by randomly sampling rehearsal examples from a generative model. Such an approach contradicts buffer-based approaches where sampling strategy plays an important role. We propose to bridge this gap by incorporating classifier guidance into the diffusion process to produce rehearsal examples specifically targeting information forgotten by a continuously trained model. This approach enables the generation of samples from preceding task distributions, which are more likely to be misclassified in the context of recently encountered classes. Our experimental results show that GUIDE significantly reduces catastrophic forgetting, outperforming conventional random sampling approaches and surpassing recent state-of-the-art methods in continual learning with generative replay.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Motivated by concerns about making online decisions that incur undue amount of risk at each time step, in this paper, we formulate the probably anytime-safe stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits problem. In this problem, the agent is given the option to select a subset of size at most K from a set of L ground items. Each item is associated to a certain mean reward as well as a variance that represents its risk. To mitigate the risk that the agent incurs, we require that with probability at least 1-delta, over the entire horizon of time T, each of the choices that the agent makes should contain items whose sum of variances does not exceed a certain variance budget. We call this probably anytime-safe constraint. Under this constraint, we design and analyze an algorithm {\sc PASCombUCB} that minimizes the regret over the horizon of time T. By developing accompanying information-theoretic lower bounds, we show that under both the problem-dependent and problem-independent paradigms, {\sc PASCombUCB} is almost asymptotically optimal. Experiments are conducted to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our problem setup, the proposed {\sc PASCombUCB} algorithm, and novel analyses are applicable to domains such as recommendation systems and transportation in which an agent is allowed to choose multiple items at a single time step and wishes to control the risk over the whole time horizon.

We consider the task of identifying the Copeland winner(s) in a dueling bandits problem with ternary feedback. This is an underexplored but practically relevant variant of the conventional dueling bandits problem, in which, in addition to strict preference between two arms, one may observe feedback in the form of an indifference. We provide a lower bound on the sample complexity for any learning algorithm finding the Copeland winner(s) with a fixed error probability. Moreover, we propose POCOWISTA, an algorithm with a sample complexity that almost matches this lower bound, and which shows excellent empirical performance, even for the conventional dueling bandits problem. For the case where the preference probabilities satisfy a specific type of stochastic transitivity, we provide a refined version with an improved worst case sample complexity.

We study the incentivized information acquisition problem, where a principal hires an agent to gather information on her behalf. Such a problem is modeled as a Stackelberg game between the principal and the agent, where the principal announces a scoring rule that specifies the payment, and then the agent then chooses an effort level that maximizes her own profit and reports the information. We study the online setting of such a problem from the principal's perspective, i.e., designing the optimal scoring rule by repeatedly interacting with the strategic agent. We design a provably sample efficient algorithm that tailors the UCB algorithm (Auer et al., 2002) to our model, which achieves a sublinear T^{2/3}-regret after T iterations. Our algorithm features a delicate estimation procedure for the optimal profit of the principal, and a conservative correction scheme that ensures the desired agent's actions are incentivized. Furthermore, a key feature of our regret bound is that it is independent of the number of states of the environment.

Reinforcement learning (RL) theory has largely focused on proving minimax sample complexity bounds. These require strategic exploration algorithms that use relatively limited function classes for representing the policy or value function. Our goal is to explain why deep RL algorithms often perform well in practice, despite using random exploration and much more expressive function classes like neural networks. Our work arrives at an explanation by showing that many stochastic MDPs can be solved by performing only a few steps of value iteration on the random policy's Q function and then acting greedily. When this is true, we find that it is possible to separate the exploration and learning components of RL, making it much easier to analyze. We introduce a new RL algorithm, SQIRL, that iteratively learns a near-optimal policy by exploring randomly to collect rollouts and then performing a limited number of steps of fitted-Q iteration over those rollouts. Any regression algorithm that satisfies basic in-distribution generalization properties can be used in SQIRL to efficiently solve common MDPs. This can explain why deep RL works, since it is empirically established that neural networks generalize well in-distribution. Furthermore, SQIRL explains why random exploration works well in practice. We leverage SQIRL to derive instance-dependent sample complexity bounds for RL that are exponential only in an "effective horizon" of lookahead and on the complexity of the class used for function approximation. Empirically, we also find that SQIRL performance strongly correlates with PPO and DQN performance in a variety of stochastic environments, supporting that our theoretical analysis is predictive of practical performance. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/cassidylaidlaw/effective-horizon.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

Exploratory data analytics (EDA) is a sequential decision making process where analysts choose subsequent queries that might lead to some interesting insights based on the previous queries and corresponding results. Data processing systems often execute the queries on samples to produce results with low latency. Different downsampling strategy preserves different statistics of the data and have different magnitude of latency reductions. The optimum choice of sampling strategy often depends on the particular context of the analysis flow and the hidden intent of the analyst. In this paper, we are the first to consider the impact of sampling in interactive data exploration settings as they introduce approximation errors. We propose a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) based framework which can optimize the sample selection in order to keep the analysis and insight generation flow intact. Evaluations with 3 real datasets show that our technique can preserve the original insight generation flow while improving the interaction latency, compared to baseline methods.

The bandits with knapsack (BwK) framework models online decision-making problems in which an agent makes a sequence of decisions subject to resource consumption constraints. The traditional model assumes that each action consumes a non-negative amount of resources and the process ends when the initial budgets are fully depleted. We study a natural generalization of the BwK framework which allows non-monotonic resource utilization, i.e., resources can be replenished by a positive amount. We propose a best-of-both-worlds primal-dual template that can handle any online learning problem with replenishment for which a suitable primal regret minimizer exists. In particular, we provide the first positive results for the case of adversarial inputs by showing that our framework guarantees a constant competitive ratio alpha when B=Omega(T) or when the possible per-round replenishment is a positive constant. Moreover, under a stochastic input model, our algorithm yields an instance-independent O(T^{1/2}) regret bound which complements existing instance-dependent bounds for the same setting. Finally, we provide applications of our framework to some economic problems of practical relevance.

We present Self-Play Preference Optimization (SPO), an algorithm for reinforcement learning from human feedback. Our approach is minimalist in that it does not require training a reward model nor unstable adversarial training and is therefore rather simple to implement. Our approach is maximalist in that it provably handles non-Markovian, intransitive, and stochastic preferences while being robust to the compounding errors that plague offline approaches to sequential prediction. To achieve the preceding qualities, we build upon the concept of a Minimax Winner (MW), a notion of preference aggregation from the social choice theory literature that frames learning from preferences as a zero-sum game between two policies. By leveraging the symmetry of this game, we prove that rather than using the traditional technique of dueling two policies to compute the MW, we can simply have a single agent play against itself while maintaining strong convergence guarantees. Practically, this corresponds to sampling multiple trajectories from a policy, asking a rater or preference model to compare them, and then using the proportion of wins as the reward for a particular trajectory. We demonstrate that on a suite of continuous control tasks, we are able to learn significantly more efficiently than reward-model based approaches while maintaining robustness to the intransitive and stochastic preferences that frequently occur in practice when aggregating human judgments.

Diffusion models suffer from slow sample generation at inference time. Therefore, developing a principled framework for fast deterministic/stochastic sampling for a broader class of diffusion models is a promising direction. We propose two complementary frameworks for accelerating sample generation in pre-trained models: Conjugate Integrators and Splitting Integrators. Conjugate integrators generalize DDIM, mapping the reverse diffusion dynamics to a more amenable space for sampling. In contrast, splitting-based integrators, commonly used in molecular dynamics, reduce the numerical simulation error by cleverly alternating between numerical updates involving the data and auxiliary variables. After extensively studying these methods empirically and theoretically, we present a hybrid method that leads to the best-reported performance for diffusion models in augmented spaces. Applied to Phase Space Langevin Diffusion [Pandey & Mandt, 2023] on CIFAR-10, our deterministic and stochastic samplers achieve FID scores of 2.11 and 2.36 in only 100 network function evaluations (NFE) as compared to 2.57 and 2.63 for the best-performing baselines, respectively. Our code and model checkpoints will be made publicly available at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

We propose and evaluate a number of solutions to the problem of calculating the cost to serve each location in a single-vehicle transport setting. Such cost to serve analysis has application both strategically and operationally in transportation. The problem is formally given by the traveling salesperson game (TSG), a cooperative total utility game in which agents correspond to locations in a traveling salesperson problem (TSP). The cost to serve a location is an allocated portion of the cost of an optimal tour. The Shapley value is one of the most important normative division schemes in cooperative games, giving a principled and fair allocation both for the TSG and more generally. We consider a number of direct and sampling-based procedures for calculating the Shapley value, and present the first proof that approximating the Shapley value of the TSG within a constant factor is NP-hard. Treating the Shapley value as an ideal baseline allocation, we then develop six proxies for that value which are relatively easy to compute. We perform an experimental evaluation using Synthetic Euclidean games as well as games derived from real-world tours calculated for fast-moving consumer goods scenarios. Our experiments show that several computationally tractable allocation techniques correspond to good proxies for the Shapley value.

Information is often stored in a distributed and proprietary form, and agents who own information are often self-interested and require incentives to reveal their information. Suitable mechanisms are required to elicit and aggregate such distributed information for decision making. In this paper, we use simulations to investigate the use of decision markets as mechanisms in a multi-agent learning system to aggregate distributed information for decision-making in a contextual bandit problem. The system utilises strictly proper decision scoring rules to assess the accuracy of probabilistic reports from agents, which allows agents to learn to solve the contextual bandit problem jointly. Our simulations show that our multi-agent system with distributed information can be trained as efficiently as a centralised counterpart with a single agent that receives all information. Moreover, we use our system to investigate scenarios with deterministic decision scoring rules which are not incentive compatible. We observe the emergence of more complex dynamics with manipulative behaviour, which agrees with existing theoretical analyses.

Learning to play optimally against any mixture over a diverse set of strategies is of important practical interests in competitive games. In this paper, we propose simplex-NeuPL that satisfies two desiderata simultaneously: i) learning a population of strategically diverse basis policies, represented by a single conditional network; ii) using the same network, learn best-responses to any mixture over the simplex of basis policies. We show that the resulting conditional policies incorporate prior information about their opponents effectively, enabling near optimal returns against arbitrary mixture policies in a game with tractable best-responses. We verify that such policies behave Bayes-optimally under uncertainty and offer insights in using this flexibility at test time. Finally, we offer evidence that learning best-responses to any mixture policies is an effective auxiliary task for strategic exploration, which, by itself, can lead to more performant populations.

LLM inference often generates a batch of candidates for a prompt and selects one via strategies like majority voting or Best-of- N (BoN). For difficult tasks, this single-shot selection often underperforms. Consequently, evaluations commonly report Pass@k: the agent may submit up to k responses, and only the best of them is used when computing regret. Motivated by this, we study inference scaling in the more general Pass@k inference setting, and prove that neither majority voting nor BoN exhibits the desirable scaling with k and the sampling budget N. Combining the advantages of majority voting and BoN, we propose a new inference strategy called Best-of-Majority (BoM), with a pivotal step that restricts the candidates to the responses with high frequency in the N samples before selecting the top-k rewards. We prove that when the sampling budget is N=tildeOmega(C^*), the regret of BoM is O(epsilon_{opt}+epsilon_{mathrm{RM}^2C^*/k}), where C^* is the coverage coefficient, epsilon_{RM} is the estimation error of the reward model, and epsilon_{opt} is the estimation error of reward at the optimal response. We further establish a matching lower bound, certifying that our algorithm is minimax optimal. Beyond optimality, BoM has a key advantage: unlike majority voting and BoN, its performance does not degrade when increasing N. Experimental results of inference on math problems show BoM outperforming both majority voting and BoN.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), yet its success hinges on effective exploration. An ideal exploration strategy must navigate two fundamental challenges: it must preserve sample quality while also ensuring training stability. While standard fixed-temperature sampling is simple, it struggles to balance these competing demands, as high temperatures degrade sample quality and low temperatures limit discovery. In this work, we propose a simpler and more effective strategy, Exploratory Annealed Decoding (EAD), grounded in the insight that exploration is most impactful on early tokens which define a sequence's semantic direction. EAD implements an intuitive **explore-at-the-beginning, exploit-at-the-end** strategy by annealing the sampling temperature from high to low during generation. This dynamic schedule encourages meaningful, high-level diversity at the start, then gradually lowers the temperature to preserve sample quality and keep the sampling distribution close to the target policy, which is essential for stable training. We demonstrate that EAD is a lightweight, plug-and-play method that significantly improves sample efficiency, consistently outperforming fixed-temperature sampling across various RLVR algorithms and model sizes. Our work suggests that aligning exploration with the natural dynamics of sequential generation offers a robust path to improving LLM reasoning.

We study the problem of posterior sampling in discrete-state spaces using discrete diffusion models. While posterior sampling methods for continuous diffusion models have achieved remarkable progress, analogous methods for discrete diffusion models remain challenging. In this work, we introduce a principled plug-and-play discrete diffusion posterior sampling algorithm based on split Gibbs sampling, which we call SG-DPS. Our algorithm enables reward-guided generation and solving inverse problems in discrete-state spaces. We demonstrate that SG-DPS converges to the true posterior distribution on synthetic benchmarks, and enjoys state-of-the-art posterior sampling performance on a range of benchmarks for discrete data, achieving up to 2x improved performance compared to existing baselines.

Guided sampling is a vital approach for applying diffusion models in real-world tasks that embeds human-defined guidance during the sampling procedure. This paper considers a general setting where the guidance is defined by an (unnormalized) energy function. The main challenge for this setting is that the intermediate guidance during the diffusion sampling procedure, which is jointly defined by the sampling distribution and the energy function, is unknown and is hard to estimate. To address this challenge, we propose an exact formulation of the intermediate guidance as well as a novel training objective named contrastive energy prediction (CEP) to learn the exact guidance. Our method is guaranteed to converge to the exact guidance under unlimited model capacity and data samples, while previous methods can not. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by applying it to offline reinforcement learning (RL). Extensive experiments on D4RL benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms existing state-of-the-art algorithms. We also provide some examples of applying CEP for image synthesis to demonstrate the scalability of CEP on high-dimensional data.

In this paper, we consider non-convex multi-block bilevel optimization (MBBO) problems, which involve mgg 1 lower level problems and have important applications in machine learning. Designing a stochastic gradient and controlling its variance is more intricate due to the hierarchical sampling of blocks and data and the unique challenge of estimating hyper-gradient. We aim to achieve three nice properties for our algorithm: (a) matching the state-of-the-art complexity of standard BO problems with a single block; (b) achieving parallel speedup by sampling I blocks and sampling B samples for each sampled block per-iteration; (c) avoiding the computation of the inverse of a high-dimensional Hessian matrix estimator. However, it is non-trivial to achieve all of these by observing that existing works only achieve one or two of these properties. To address the involved challenges for achieving (a, b, c), we propose two stochastic algorithms by using advanced blockwise variance-reduction techniques for tracking the Hessian matrices (for low-dimensional problems) or the Hessian-vector products (for high-dimensional problems), and prove an iteration complexity of O(mepsilon^{-3I(I<m)}{II} + mepsilon^{-3}{IB}) for finding an epsilon-stationary point under appropriate conditions. We also conduct experiments to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms comparing with existing MBBO algorithms.

Randomized mechanisms can have good normative properties compared to their deterministic counterparts. However, randomized mechanisms are problematic in several ways such as in their verifiability. We propose here to derandomize such mechanisms by having agents play a game instead of tossing a coin. The game is designed so an agent's best action is to play randomly, and this play then injects ``randomness'' into the mechanism. This derandomization retains many of the good normative properties of the original randomized mechanism but gives a mechanism that is deterministic and easy, for instance, to audit. We consider three related methods to derandomize randomized mechanism in six different domains: voting, facility location, task allocation, school choice, peer selection, and resource allocation. We propose a number of novel derandomized mechanisms for these six domains with good normative properties. Each mechanism has a mixed Nash equilibrium in which agents play a modular arithmetic game with an uniform mixed strategy. In all but one mixed Nash equilibrium, agents report their preferences over the original problem sincerely. The derandomized methods are thus ``quasi-strategy proof''. In one domain, we additionally show that a new and desirable normative property emerges as a result of derandomization.

We study the variance of stochastic policy gradients (SPGs) with many action samples per state. We derive a many-actions optimality condition, which determines when many-actions SPG yields lower variance as compared to a single-action agent with proportionally extended trajectory. We propose Model-Based Many-Actions (MBMA), an approach leveraging dynamics models for many-actions sampling in the context of SPG. MBMA addresses issues associated with existing implementations of many-actions SPG and yields lower bias and comparable variance to SPG estimated from states in model-simulated rollouts. We find that MBMA bias and variance structure matches that predicted by theory. As a result, MBMA achieves improved sample efficiency and higher returns on a range of continuous action environments as compared to model-free, many-actions, and model-based on-policy SPG baselines.

The majority of online display ads are served through real-time bidding (RTB) --- each ad display impression is auctioned off in real-time when it is just being generated from a user visit. To place an ad automatically and optimally, it is critical for advertisers to devise a learning algorithm to cleverly bid an ad impression in real-time. Most previous works consider the bid decision as a static optimization problem of either treating the value of each impression independently or setting a bid price to each segment of ad volume. However, the bidding for a given ad campaign would repeatedly happen during its life span before the budget runs out. As such, each bid is strategically correlated by the constrained budget and the overall effectiveness of the campaign (e.g., the rewards from generated clicks), which is only observed after the campaign has completed. Thus, it is of great interest to devise an optimal bidding strategy sequentially so that the campaign budget can be dynamically allocated across all the available impressions on the basis of both the immediate and future rewards. In this paper, we formulate the bid decision process as a reinforcement learning problem, where the state space is represented by the auction information and the campaign's real-time parameters, while an action is the bid price to set. By modeling the state transition via auction competition, we build a Markov Decision Process framework for learning the optimal bidding policy to optimize the advertising performance in the dynamic real-time bidding environment. Furthermore, the scalability problem from the large real-world auction volume and campaign budget is well handled by state value approximation using neural networks.

We propose the first loss function for approximate Nash equilibria of normal-form games that is amenable to unbiased Monte Carlo estimation. This construction allows us to deploy standard non-convex stochastic optimization techniques for approximating Nash equilibria, resulting in novel algorithms with provable guarantees. We complement our theoretical analysis with experiments demonstrating that stochastic gradient descent can outperform previous state-of-the-art approaches.

We consider strategy proof mechanisms for facility location which maximize equitability between agents. As is common in the literature, we measure equitability with the Gini index. We first prove a simple but fundamental impossibility result that no strategy proof mechanism can bound the approximation ratio of the optimal Gini index of utilities for one or more facilities. We propose instead computing approximation ratios of the complemented Gini index of utilities, and consider how well both deterministic and randomized mechanisms approximate this. In addition, as Nash welfare is often put forwards as an equitable compromise between egalitarian and utilitarian outcomes, we consider how well mechanisms approximate the Nash welfare.

We study an online learning problem in general-sum Stackelberg games, where players act in a decentralized and strategic manner. We study two settings depending on the type of information for the follower: (1) the limited information setting where the follower only observes its own reward, and (2) the side information setting where the follower has extra side information about the leader's reward. We show that for the follower, myopically best responding to the leader's action is the best strategy for the limited information setting, but not necessarily so for the side information setting -- the follower can manipulate the leader's reward signals with strategic actions, and hence induce the leader's strategy to converge to an equilibrium that is better off for itself. Based on these insights, we study decentralized online learning for both players in the two settings. Our main contribution is to derive last-iterate convergence and sample complexity results in both settings. Notably, we design a new manipulation strategy for the follower in the latter setting, and show that it has an intrinsic advantage against the best response strategy. Our theories are also supported by empirical results.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

In this study, we propose Shortcut Fine-Tuning (SFT), a new approach for addressing the challenge of fast sampling of pretrained Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs). SFT advocates for the fine-tuning of DDPM samplers through the direct minimization of Integral Probability Metrics (IPM), instead of learning the backward diffusion process. This enables samplers to discover an alternative and more efficient sampling shortcut, deviating from the backward diffusion process. Inspired by a control perspective, we propose a new algorithm SFT-PG: Shortcut Fine-Tuning with Policy Gradient, and prove that under certain assumptions, gradient descent of diffusion models with respect to IPM is equivalent to performing policy gradient. To our best knowledge, this is the first attempt to utilize reinforcement learning (RL) methods to train diffusion models. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that our fine-tuning method can further enhance existing fast DDPM samplers, resulting in sample quality comparable to or even surpassing that of the full-step model across various datasets.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

The online knapsack problem is a classic problem in the field of online algorithms. Its canonical version asks how to pack items of different values and weights arriving online into a capacity-limited knapsack so as to maximize the total value of the admitted items. Although optimal competitive algorithms are known for this problem, they may be fundamentally unfair, i.e., individual items may be treated inequitably in different ways. We formalize a practically-relevant notion of time fairness which effectively models a trade off between static and dynamic pricing in a motivating application such as cloud resource allocation, and show that existing algorithms perform poorly under this metric. We propose a parameterized deterministic algorithm where the parameter precisely captures the Pareto-optimal trade-off between fairness (static pricing) and competitiveness (dynamic pricing). We show that randomization is theoretically powerful enough to be simultaneously competitive and fair; however, it does not work well in experiments. To further improve the trade-off between fairness and competitiveness, we develop a nearly-optimal learning-augmented algorithm which is fair, consistent, and robust (competitive), showing substantial performance improvements in numerical experiments.

In this report, we survey Bayesian Optimization methods focussed on the Multi-Armed Bandit Problem. We take the help of the paper "Portfolio Allocation for Bayesian Optimization". We report a small literature survey on the acquisition functions and the types of portfolio strategies used in papers discussing Bayesian Optimization. We also replicate the experiments and report our findings and compare them to the results in the paper. Code link: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1GZ14klEDoe3dcBeZKo5l8qqrKf_GmBDn?usp=sharing#scrollTo=XgIBau3O45_V.

We address the challenge of exploration in reinforcement learning (RL) when the agent operates in an unknown environment with sparse or no rewards. In this work, we study the maximum entropy exploration problem of two different types. The first type is visitation entropy maximization previously considered by Hazan et al.(2019) in the discounted setting. For this type of exploration, we propose a game-theoretic algorithm that has mathcal{O}(H^3S^2A/varepsilon^2) sample complexity thus improving the varepsilon-dependence upon existing results, where S is a number of states, A is a number of actions, H is an episode length, and varepsilon is a desired accuracy. The second type of entropy we study is the trajectory entropy. This objective function is closely related to the entropy-regularized MDPs, and we propose a simple algorithm that has a sample complexity of order mathcal{O}(poly(S,A,H)/varepsilon). Interestingly, it is the first theoretical result in RL literature that establishes the potential statistical advantage of regularized MDPs for exploration. Finally, we apply developed regularization techniques to reduce sample complexity of visitation entropy maximization to mathcal{O}(H^2SA/varepsilon^2), yielding a statistical separation between maximum entropy exploration and reward-free exploration.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently advanced the field of Automated Theorem Proving (ATP), attaining substantial performance gains through widely adopted test-time scaling strategies, notably reflective Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning and increased sampling passes. However, they both introduce significant computational overhead for inference. Moreover, existing cost analyses typically regulate only the number of sampling passes, while neglecting the substantial disparities in sampling costs introduced by different scaling strategies. In this paper, we systematically compare the efficiency of different test-time scaling strategies for ATP models and demonstrate the inefficiency of the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) open-source approaches. We then investigate approaches to significantly reduce token usage and sample passes while maintaining the original performance. Specifically, we propose two complementary methods that can be integrated into a unified EconRL pipeline for amplified benefits: (1) a dynamic Chain-of-Thought (CoT) switching mechanism designed to mitigate unnecessary token consumption, and (2) Diverse parallel-scaled reinforcement learning (RL) with trainable prefixes to enhance pass rates under constrained sampling passes. Experiments on miniF2F and ProofNet demonstrate that our EconProver achieves comparable performance to baseline methods with only 12% of the computational cost. This work provides actionable insights for deploying lightweight ATP models without sacrificing performance.

Batch Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a successful technique for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. Asynchronous BO can reduce wallclock time by starting a new evaluation as soon as another finishes, thus maximising resource utilisation. To maximise resource allocation, we develop a novel asynchronous BO method, AEGiS (Asynchronous epsilon-Greedy Global Search) that combines greedy search, exploiting the surrogate's mean prediction, with Thompson sampling and random selection from the approximate Pareto set describing the trade-off between exploitation (surrogate mean prediction) and exploration (surrogate posterior variance). We demonstrate empirically the efficacy of AEGiS on synthetic benchmark problems, meta-surrogate hyperparameter tuning problems and real-world problems, showing that AEGiS generally outperforms existing methods for asynchronous BO. When a single worker is available performance is no worse than BO using expected improvement.

These lecture notes give a statistical perspective on the foundations of reinforcement learning and interactive decision making. We present a unifying framework for addressing the exploration-exploitation dilemma using frequentist and Bayesian approaches, with connections and parallels between supervised learning/estimation and decision making as an overarching theme. Special attention is paid to function approximation and flexible model classes such as neural networks. Topics covered include multi-armed and contextual bandits, structured bandits, and reinforcement learning with high-dimensional feedback.

We consider an extension to the classic position auctions in which sponsored creatives can be added within AI generated content rather than shown in predefined slots. New challenges arise from the natural requirement that sponsored creatives should smoothly fit into the context. With the help of advanced LLM technologies, it becomes viable to accurately estimate the benefits of adding each individual sponsored creatives into each potential positions within the AI generated content by properly taking the context into account. Therefore, we assume one click-through rate estimation for each position-creative pair, rather than one uniform estimation for each sponsored creative across all positions in classic settings. As a result, the underlying optimization becomes a general matching problem, thus the substitution effects should be treated more carefully compared to standard position auction settings, where the slots are independent with each other. In this work, we formalize a concrete mathematical model of the extended position auction problem and study the welfare-maximization and revenue-maximization mechanism design problem. Formally, we consider two different user behavior models and solve the mechanism design problems therein respectively. For the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, which is order-insensitive, we can efficiently implement the optimal mechanisms. For the cascade model, which is order-sensitive, we provide approximately optimal solutions.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

Multiple robots could perceive a scene (e.g., detect objects) collaboratively better than individuals, although easily suffer from adversarial attacks when using deep learning. This could be addressed by the adversarial defense, but its training requires the often-unknown attacking mechanism. Differently, we propose ROBOSAC, a novel sampling-based defense strategy generalizable to unseen attackers. Our key idea is that collaborative perception should lead to consensus rather than dissensus in results compared to individual perception. This leads to our hypothesize-and-verify framework: perception results with and without collaboration from a random subset of teammates are compared until reaching a consensus. In such a framework, more teammates in the sampled subset often entail better perception performance but require longer sampling time to reject potential attackers. Thus, we derive how many sampling trials are needed to ensure the desired size of an attacker-free subset, or equivalently, the maximum size of such a subset that we can successfully sample within a given number of trials. We validate our method on the task of collaborative 3D object detection in autonomous driving scenarios.

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework under a broad class of risk objectives, characterized by convex scoring functions. This class covers many common risk measures, such as variance, Expected Shortfall, entropic Value-at-Risk, and mean-risk utility. To resolve the time-inconsistency issue, we consider an augmented state space and an auxiliary variable and recast the problem as a two-state optimization problem. We propose a customized Actor-Critic algorithm and establish some theoretical approximation guarantees. A key theoretical contribution is that our results do not require the Markov decision process to be continuous. Additionally, we propose an auxiliary variable sampling method inspired by the alternating minimization algorithm, which is convergent under certain conditions. We validate our approach in simulation experiments with a financial application in statistical arbitrage trading, demonstrating the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Unsupervised reinforcement learning (RL) studies how to leverage environment statistics to learn useful behaviors without the cost of reward engineering. However, a central challenge in unsupervised RL is to extract behaviors that meaningfully affect the world and cover the range of possible outcomes, without getting distracted by inherently unpredictable, uncontrollable, and stochastic elements in the environment. To this end, we propose an unsupervised RL method designed for high-dimensional, stochastic environments based on an adversarial game between two policies (which we call Explore and Control) controlling a single body and competing over the amount of observation entropy the agent experiences. The Explore agent seeks out states that maximally surprise the Control agent, which in turn aims to minimize surprise, and thereby manipulate the environment to return to familiar and predictable states. The competition between these two policies drives them to seek out increasingly surprising parts of the environment while learning to gain mastery over them. We show formally that the resulting algorithm maximizes coverage of the underlying state in block MDPs with stochastic observations, providing theoretical backing to our hypothesis that this procedure avoids uncontrollable and stochastic distractions. Our experiments further demonstrate that Adversarial Surprise leads to the emergence of complex and meaningful skills, and outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised reinforcement learning methods in terms of both exploration and zero-shot transfer to downstream tasks.

Despite remarkable successes, deep reinforcement learning algorithms remain sample inefficient: they require an enormous amount of trial and error to find good policies. Model-based algorithms promise sample efficiency by building an environment model that can be used for planning. Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning is such a model-based algorithm that has attracted significant interest due to its performance in the tabular setting. This paper introduces Posterior Sampling for Deep Reinforcement Learning (PSDRL), the first truly scalable approximation of Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning that retains its model-based essence. PSDRL combines efficient uncertainty quantification over latent state space models with a specially tailored continual planning algorithm based on value-function approximation. Extensive experiments on the Atari benchmark show that PSDRL significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art attempts at scaling up posterior sampling while being competitive with a state-of-the-art (model-based) reinforcement learning method, both in sample efficiency and computational efficiency.

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching problem into a mean estimation one. By estimating the means of the regularized posterior distributions, we derive a novel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm called reverse diffusion Monte Carlo (rdMC), which is distinct from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We determine the sample size from the error tolerance and the properties of the posterior distribution to yield an algorithm that can approximately sample the target distribution with any desired accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate and prove under suitable conditions that sampling with rdMC can be significantly faster than that with MCMC. For multi-modal target distributions such as those in Gaussian mixture models, rdMC greatly improves over the Langevin-style MCMC sampling methods both theoretically and in practice. The proposed rdMC method offers a new perspective and solution beyond classical MCMC algorithms for the challenging complex distributions.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

Posterior sampling allows the exploitation of prior knowledge of the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, a task that can be cumbersome in practice, often resulting in the choice of uninformative priors. In this work, we propose a novel posterior sampling approach in which the prior is given as a (partial) causal graph over the environment's variables. The latter is often more natural to design, such as listing known causal dependencies between biometric features in a medical treatment study. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian procedure, called C-PSRL, simultaneously learning the full causal graph at the higher level and the parameters of the resulting factored dynamics at the lower level. For this procedure, we provide an analysis of its Bayesian regret, which explicitly connects the regret rate with the degree of prior knowledge. Our numerical evaluation conducted in illustrative domains confirms that C-PSRL strongly improves the efficiency of posterior sampling with an uninformative prior while performing close to posterior sampling with the full causal graph.

We study the design of sample-efficient algorithms for reinforcement learning in the presence of rich, high-dimensional observations, formalized via the Block MDP problem. Existing algorithms suffer from either 1) computational intractability, 2) strong statistical assumptions that are not necessarily satisfied in practice, or 3) suboptimal sample complexity. We address these issues by providing the first computationally efficient algorithm that attains rate-optimal sample complexity with respect to the desired accuracy level, with minimal statistical assumptions. Our algorithm, MusIK, combines systematic exploration with representation learning based on multi-step inverse kinematics, a learning objective in which the aim is to predict the learner's own action from the current observation and observations in the (potentially distant) future. MusIK is simple and flexible, and can efficiently take advantage of general-purpose function approximation. Our analysis leverages several new techniques tailored to non-optimistic exploration algorithms, which we anticipate will find broader use.

Cascading bandits have gained popularity in recent years due to their applicability to recommendation systems and online advertising. In the cascading bandit model, at each timestep, an agent recommends an ordered subset of items (called an item list) from a pool of items, each associated with an unknown attraction probability. Then, the user examines the list, and clicks the first attractive item (if any), and after that, the agent receives a reward. The goal of the agent is to maximize the expected cumulative reward. However, the prior literature on cascading bandits ignores the influences of user states (e.g., historical behaviors) on recommendations and the change of states as the session proceeds. Motivated by this fact, we propose a generalized cascading RL framework, which considers the impact of user states and state transition into decisions. In cascading RL, we need to select items not only with large attraction probabilities but also leading to good successor states. This imposes a huge computational challenge due to the combinatorial action space. To tackle this challenge, we delve into the properties of value functions, and design an oracle BestPerm to efficiently find the optimal item list. Equipped with BestPerm, we develop two algorithms CascadingVI and CascadingBPI, which are both computationally-efficient and sample-efficient, and provide near-optimal regret and sample complexity guarantees. Furthermore, we present experiments to show the improved computational and sample efficiencies of our algorithms compared to straightforward adaptations of existing RL algorithms in practice.

Modern neural networks are known to give overconfident prediction for out-of-distribution inputs when deployed in the open world. It is common practice to leverage a surrogate outlier dataset to regularize the model during training, and recent studies emphasize the role of uncertainty in designing the sampling strategy for outlier dataset. However, the OOD samples selected solely based on predictive uncertainty can be biased towards certain types, which may fail to capture the full outlier distribution. In this work, we empirically show that diversity is critical in sampling outliers for OOD detection performance. Motivated by the observation, we propose a straightforward and novel sampling strategy named DOS (Diverse Outlier Sampling) to select diverse and informative outliers. Specifically, we cluster the normalized features at each iteration, and the most informative outlier from each cluster is selected for model training with absent category loss. With DOS, the sampled outliers efficiently shape a globally compact decision boundary between ID and OOD data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of DOS, reducing the average FPR95 by up to 25.79% on CIFAR-100 with TI-300K.

Provably efficient Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) based on optimism or posterior sampling (PSRL) is ensured to attain the global optimality asymptotically by introducing the complexity measure of the model. However, the complexity might grow exponentially for the simplest nonlinear models, where global convergence is impossible within finite iterations. When the model suffers a large generalization error, which is quantitatively measured by the model complexity, the uncertainty can be large. The sampled model that current policy is greedily optimized upon will thus be unsettled, resulting in aggressive policy updates and over-exploration. In this work, we propose Conservative Dual Policy Optimization (CDPO) that involves a Referential Update and a Conservative Update. The policy is first optimized under a reference model, which imitates the mechanism of PSRL while offering more stability. A conservative range of randomness is guaranteed by maximizing the expectation of model value. Without harmful sampling procedures, CDPO can still achieve the same regret as PSRL. More importantly, CDPO enjoys monotonic policy improvement and global optimality simultaneously. Empirical results also validate the exploration efficiency of CDPO.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

We consider the problem of recommending relevant content to users of an internet platform in the form of lists of items, called slates. We introduce a variational Bayesian Recurrent Neural Net recommender system that acts on time series of interactions between the internet platform and the user, and which scales to real world industrial situations. The recommender system is tested both online on real users, and on an offline dataset collected from a Norwegian web-based marketplace, FINN.no, that is made public for research. This is one of the first publicly available datasets which includes all the slates that are presented to users as well as which items (if any) in the slates were clicked on. Such a data set allows us to move beyond the common assumption that implicitly assumes that users are considering all possible items at each interaction. Instead we build our likelihood using the items that are actually in the slate, and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches theoretically and in experiments. We also introduce a hierarchical prior for the item parameters based on group memberships. Both item parameters and user preferences are learned probabilistically. Furthermore, we combine our model with bandit strategies to ensure learning, and introduce `in-slate Thompson Sampling' which makes use of the slates to maximise explorative opportunities. We show experimentally that explorative recommender strategies perform on par or above their greedy counterparts. Even without making use of exploration to learn more effectively, click rates increase simply because of improved diversity in the recommended slates.

Existing theoretical studies on offline reinforcement learning (RL) mostly consider a dataset sampled directly from the target task. In practice, however, data often come from several heterogeneous but related sources. Motivated by this gap, this work aims at rigorously understanding offline RL with multiple datasets that are collected from randomly perturbed versions of the target task instead of from itself. An information-theoretic lower bound is derived, which reveals a necessary requirement on the number of involved sources in addition to that on the number of data samples. Then, a novel HetPEVI algorithm is proposed, which simultaneously considers the sample uncertainties from a finite number of data samples per data source and the source uncertainties due to a finite number of available data sources. Theoretical analyses demonstrate that HetPEVI can solve the target task as long as the data sources collectively provide a good data coverage. Moreover, HetPEVI is demonstrated to be optimal up to a polynomial factor of the horizon length. Finally, the study is extended to offline Markov games and offline robust RL, which demonstrates the generality of the proposed designs and theoretical analyses.

Reinforcement Learning has emerged as the fundamental technique for enhancing reasoning in LLMs. However, existing algorithms apply uniform optimization to all tokens, ignoring their different roles in reasoning process. To address this limitation, we introduce Heterogeneous Adaptive Policy Optimization (HAPO), a comprehensive token-aware algorithm that dynamically adapts optimization based on token entropy. For rollout sampling, we propose Adaptive Temperature Sampling, which adjusts sampling temperature in real time, promoting exploration at high-entropy tokens while preserving coherence at low-entropy ones. For advantage calculation, we introduce Token Level Group Average that normalizes advantages at token level, jointly accounting for sequence-length as in token-mean loss while preserving non-biased treatment. We then develop Differential Advantage Redistribution that leverages entropy and importance ratios to modulate rewards-adjusting updates for tokens with clear signals. For clipping loss, we design Asymmetric Adaptive Clipping, allowing aggressive probability reduction for noisy low-entropy tokens while enabling exploration for high-entropy tokens. Through systematic investigation between entropy and training dynamics, we embedded token-level treatment into every stages to achieve fine-grained control. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HAPO consistently outperforms DAPO across multiple model scales. Our code can be found in https://github.com/starriver030515/HAPO.

Tree search has become as a representative framework for test-time reasoning with large language models (LLMs), exemplified by methods such as Tree-of-Thought and Monte Carlo Tree Search that explore multiple reasoning paths. However, it remains difficult to provide instant and reliable quantitative assessments of intermediate reasoning step quality, and extensive path exploration is computationally costly. To address this, we propose Mutual Information Tree Search (MITS), a novel framework that guides reasoning with information-theoretic principles. MITS introduces an effective scoring function based on pointwise mutual information (PMI), which enables step-wise evaluation of reasoning paths and search tree expansion via beam search without expensive look-ahead simulations, achieving superior reasoning performances while maintaining computational efficiency. The framework is complemented by an entropy-based dynamic sampling strategy that adaptively allocates computational resources to uncertain reasoning steps where exploration is most beneficial. For final prediction, MITS employs a weighted voting scheme that combines PMI scores with prediction consensus. Through comprehensive experiments on diverse reasoning benchmarks, MITS consistently surpasses baseline methods, establishing a principled and efficient framework for LLM reasoning.

We investigate the problem of stochastic, combinatorial multi-armed bandits where the learner only has access to bandit feedback and the reward function can be non-linear. We provide a general framework for adapting discrete offline approximation algorithms into sublinear alpha-regret methods that only require bandit feedback, achieving Oleft(T^2{3}log(T)^1{3}right) expected cumulative alpha-regret dependence on the horizon T. The framework only requires the offline algorithms to be robust to small errors in function evaluation. The adaptation procedure does not even require explicit knowledge of the offline approximation algorithm -- the offline algorithm can be used as black box subroutine. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework, the proposed framework is applied to multiple problems in submodular maximization, adapting approximation algorithms for cardinality and for knapsack constraints. The new CMAB algorithms for knapsack constraints outperform a full-bandit method developed for the adversarial setting in experiments with real-world data.

Sampling-based search, a simple paradigm for utilizing test-time compute, involves generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the best one -- typically by verifying each response for correctness. In this paper, we study the scaling trends governing sampling-based search. Among our findings is that simply scaling up a minimalist implementation that uses only random sampling and direct self-verification results in sustained performance improvements that, for example, elevate the Gemini v1.5 Pro model's reasoning capabilities past that of o1-Preview on popular benchmarks. We partially attribute the scalability of sampling-based search to a phenomenon of implicit scaling, where sampling a larger pool of responses in turn improves verification accuracy. We further identify two useful principles for improving self-verification capabilities with test-time compute: (1) comparing across responses provides helpful signals about the locations of errors and hallucinations, and (2) different model output styles are useful for different contexts -- chains of thought are useful for reasoning but harder to verify. We also find that, though accurate verification can be elicited, frontier models demonstrate remarkably weak out-of-box verification capabilities and introduce a benchmark to measure progress on these deficiencies.

Frontier models that generate extended reasoning traces inadvertently produce rich token sequences that can facilitate model distillation. Recognizing this vulnerability, model owners may seek sampling strategies that limit the effectiveness of distillation without compromising model performance. Antidistillation sampling provides exactly this capability. By strategically modifying a model's next-token probability distribution, antidistillation sampling poisons reasoning traces, rendering them significantly less effective for distillation while preserving the model's practical utility. For further details, see https://antidistillation.com.

Given an unconditional diffusion model and a predictor for a target property of interest (e.g., a classifier), the goal of training-free guidance is to generate samples with desirable target properties without additional training. Existing methods, though effective in various individual applications, often lack theoretical grounding and rigorous testing on extensive benchmarks. As a result, they could even fail on simple tasks, and applying them to a new problem becomes unavoidably difficult. This paper introduces a novel algorithmic framework encompassing existing methods as special cases, unifying the study of training-free guidance into the analysis of an algorithm-agnostic design space. Via theoretical and empirical investigation, we propose an efficient and effective hyper-parameter searching strategy that can be readily applied to any downstream task. We systematically benchmark across 7 diffusion models on 16 tasks with 40 targets, and improve performance by 8.5% on average. Our framework and benchmark offer a solid foundation for conditional generation in a training-free manner.

Reinforcement learning (RL) in recommendation systems offers the potential to optimize recommendations for long-term user engagement. However, the environment often involves large state and action spaces, which makes it hard to efficiently learn and explore. In this work, we propose a sample-efficient representation learning algorithm, using the standard slate recommendation setup, to treat this as an online RL problem with low-rank Markov decision processes (MDPs). We also construct the recommender simulation environment with the proposed setup and sampling method.

We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models in the discrete setting. Unlike traditional proper losses, we treat both the generative model and the target distribution as black-boxes, only assuming ability to draw i.i.d. samples. We define a loss to be black-box proper if the generative distribution that minimizes expected loss is equal to the target distribution. Using techniques from statistical estimation theory, we give a general construction and characterization of black-box proper losses: they must take a polynomial form, and the number of draws from the model and target distribution must exceed the degree of the polynomial. The characterization rules out a loss whose expectation is the cross-entropy between the target distribution and the model. By extending the construction to arbitrary sampling schemes such as Poisson sampling, however, we show that one can construct such a loss.

Performance of machine learning algorithms depends critically on identifying a good set of hyperparameters. While recent approaches use Bayesian optimization to adaptively select configurations, we focus on speeding up random search through adaptive resource allocation and early-stopping. We formulate hyperparameter optimization as a pure-exploration non-stochastic infinite-armed bandit problem where a predefined resource like iterations, data samples, or features is allocated to randomly sampled configurations. We introduce a novel algorithm, Hyperband, for this framework and analyze its theoretical properties, providing several desirable guarantees. Furthermore, we compare Hyperband with popular Bayesian optimization methods on a suite of hyperparameter optimization problems. We observe that Hyperband can provide over an order-of-magnitude speedup over our competitor set on a variety of deep-learning and kernel-based learning problems.

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a powerful algorithm for solving complex decision-making problems. This paper presents an optimized MCTS implementation applied to the FrozenLake environment, a classic reinforcement learning task characterized by stochastic transitions. The optimization leverages cumulative reward and visit count tables along with the Upper Confidence Bound for Trees (UCT) formula, resulting in efficient learning in a slippery grid world. We benchmark our implementation against other decision-making algorithms, including MCTS with Policy and Q-Learning, and perform a detailed comparison of their performance. The results demonstrate that our optimized approach effectively maximizes rewards and success rates while minimizing convergence time, outperforming baseline methods, especially in environments with inherent randomness.

Most offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms return a target policy maximizing a trade-off between (1) the expected performance gain over the behavior policy that collected the dataset, and (2) the risk stemming from the out-of-distribution-ness of the induced state-action occupancy. It follows that the performance of the target policy is strongly related to the performance of the behavior policy and, thus, the trajectory return distribution of the dataset. We show that in mixed datasets consisting of mostly low-return trajectories and minor high-return trajectories, state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms are overly restrained by low-return trajectories and fail to exploit high-performing trajectories to the fullest. To overcome this issue, we show that, in deterministic MDPs with stochastic initial states, the dataset sampling can be re-weighted to induce an artificial dataset whose behavior policy has a higher return. This re-weighted sampling strategy may be combined with any offline RL algorithm. We further analyze that the opportunity for performance improvement over the behavior policy correlates with the positive-sided variance of the returns of the trajectories in the dataset. We empirically show that while CQL, IQL, and TD3+BC achieve only a part of this potential policy improvement, these same algorithms combined with our reweighted sampling strategy fully exploit the dataset. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that, despite its theoretical limitation, the approach may still be efficient in stochastic environments. The code is available at https://github.com/Improbable-AI/harness-offline-rl.

We introduce Adjoint Sampling, a highly scalable and efficient algorithm for learning diffusion processes that sample from unnormalized densities, or energy functions. It is the first on-policy approach that allows significantly more gradient updates than the number of energy evaluations and model samples, allowing us to scale to much larger problem settings than previously explored by similar methods. Our framework is theoretically grounded in stochastic optimal control and shares the same theoretical guarantees as Adjoint Matching, being able to train without the need for corrective measures that push samples towards the target distribution. We show how to incorporate key symmetries, as well as periodic boundary conditions, for modeling molecules in both cartesian and torsional coordinates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive experiments on classical energy functions, and further scale up to neural network-based energy models where we perform amortized conformer generation across many molecular systems. To encourage further research in developing highly scalable sampling methods, we plan to open source these challenging benchmarks, where successful methods can directly impact progress in computational chemistry.

Current language models generate chain-of-thought traces by autoregressively sampling tokens from a finite vocabulary. While this discrete sampling has achieved remarkable success, conducting chain-of-thought with continuously-valued tokens (CoT2) offers a richer and more expressive alternative. Our work examines the benefits of CoT2 through logical reasoning tasks that inherently require search capabilities and provide optimization and exploration methods for CoT2. Theoretically, we show that CoT2 allows the model to track multiple traces in parallel and quantify its benefits for inference efficiency. Notably, one layer transformer equipped with CoT2 can provably solve the combinatorial "subset sum problem" given sufficient embedding dimension. These insights lead to a novel and effective supervision strategy where we match the softmax outputs to the empirical token distributions of a set of target traces. Complementing this, we introduce sampling strategies that unlock policy optimization and self-improvement for CoT2. Our first strategy samples and composes K discrete tokens at each decoding step to control the level of parallelism, and reduces to standard CoT when K=1. Our second strategy relies on continuous exploration over the probability simplex. Experiments confirm that policy optimization with CoT2 indeed improves the performance of the model beyond its initial discrete or continuous supervision.

This paper presents Diffusion Forcing, a new training paradigm where a diffusion model is trained to denoise a set of tokens with independent per-token noise levels. We apply Diffusion Forcing to sequence generative modeling by training a causal next-token prediction model to generate one or several future tokens without fully diffusing past ones. Our approach is shown to combine the strengths of next-token prediction models, such as variable-length generation, with the strengths of full-sequence diffusion models, such as the ability to guide sampling to desirable trajectories. Our method offers a range of additional capabilities, such as (1) rolling-out sequences of continuous tokens, such as video, with lengths past the training horizon, where baselines diverge and (2) new sampling and guiding schemes that uniquely profit from Diffusion Forcing's variable-horizon and causal architecture, and which lead to marked performance gains in decision-making and planning tasks. In addition to its empirical success, our method is proven to optimize a variational lower bound on the likelihoods of all subsequences of tokens drawn from the true joint distribution. Project website: https://boyuan.space/diffusion-forcing/

In this paper, we propose a new method Strategist that utilizes LLMs to acquire new skills for playing multi-agent games through a self-improvement process. Our method gathers quality feedback through self-play simulations with Monte Carlo tree search and LLM-based reflection, which can then be used to learn high-level strategic skills such as how to evaluate states that guide the low-level execution.We showcase how our method can be used in both action planning and dialogue generation in the context of games, achieving good performance on both tasks. Specifically, we demonstrate that our method can help train agents with better performance than both traditional reinforcement learning-based approaches and other LLM-based skill learning approaches in games including the Game of Pure Strategy (GOPS) and The Resistance: Avalon.

We present the first evaluation harness that enables any out-of-the-box, local, Large Language Models (LLMs) to play full-press Diplomacy without fine-tuning or specialized training. Previous work required frontier LLMs, or fine-tuning, due to the high complexity and information density of Diplomacy's game state. Combined with the high variance of matches, these factors made Diplomacy prohibitive for study. In this work, we used data-driven iteration to optimize a textual game state representation such that a 24B model can reliably complete matches without any fine tuning. We develop tooling to facilitate hypothesis testing and statistical analysis, and we present case studies on persuasion, aggressive playstyles, and performance across a range of models. We conduct a variety of experiments across many popular LLMs, finding the larger models perform the best, but the smaller models still play adequately. We also introduce Critical State Analysis: an experimental protocol for rapidly iterating and analyzing key moments in a game at depth. Our harness democratizes the evaluation of strategic reasoning in LLMs by eliminating the need for fine-tuning, and it provides insights into how these capabilities emerge naturally from widely used LLMs. Our code is available in the supplement and will be open sourced.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

Generative reward models with parallel sampling have enabled effective test-time scaling for reasoning tasks. Current approaches employ pointwise scoring of individual solutions or pairwise comparisons. However, pointwise methods underutilize LLMs' comparative abilities, while pairwise methods scale inefficiently with larger sampling budgets. We introduce GenSelect, where the LLM uses long reasoning to select the best solution among N candidates. This leverages LLMs' comparative strengths while scaling efficiently across parallel sampling budgets. For math reasoning, we demonstrate that reasoning models, such as QwQ and DeepSeek-R1-0528, excel at GenSelect, outperforming existing scoring approaches with simple prompting.

In large scale machine learning, random sampling is a popular way to approximate datasets by a small representative subset of examples. In particular, sensitivity sampling is an intensely studied technique which provides provable guarantees on the quality of approximation, while reducing the number of examples to the product of the VC dimension d and the total sensitivity mathfrak S in remarkably general settings. However, guarantees going beyond this general bound of mathfrak S d are known in perhaps only one setting, for ell_2 subspace embeddings, despite intense study of sensitivity sampling in prior work. In this work, we show the first bounds for sensitivity sampling for ell_p subspace embeddings for pneq 2 that improve over the general mathfrak S d bound, achieving a bound of roughly mathfrak S^{2/p} for 1leq p<2 and mathfrak S^{2-2/p} for 2<p<infty. For 1leq p<2, we show that this bound is tight, in the sense that there exist matrices for which mathfrak S^{2/p} samples is necessary. Furthermore, our techniques yield further new results in the study of sampling algorithms, showing that the root leverage score sampling algorithm achieves a bound of roughly d for 1leq p<2, and that a combination of leverage score and sensitivity sampling achieves an improved bound of roughly d^{2/p}mathfrak S^{2-4/p} for 2<p<infty. Our sensitivity sampling results yield the best known sample complexity for a wide class of structured matrices that have small ell_p sensitivity.

We study the problem of optimally projecting the transition matrix of a finite ergodic multivariate Markov chain onto a lower-dimensional state space. Specifically, we seek to construct a projected Markov chain that optimizes various information-theoretic criteria under cardinality constraints. These criteria include entropy rate, information-theoretic distance to factorizability, independence, and stationarity. We formulate these tasks as best subset selection problems over multivariate Markov chains and leverage the submodular (or supermodular) structure of the objective functions to develop efficient greedy-based algorithms with theoretical guarantees. We extend our analysis to k-submodular settings and introduce a generalized version of the distorted greedy algorithm, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the theory and algorithms through extensive numerical experiments with publicly available code on multivariate Markov chains associated with the Bernoulli-Laplace and Curie-Weiss model.

We tackle the problem of sampling from intractable high-dimensional density functions, a fundamental task that often appears in machine learning and statistics. We extend recent sampling-based approaches that leverage controlled stochastic processes to model approximate samples from these target densities. The main drawback of these approaches is that the training objective requires full trajectories to compute, resulting in sluggish credit assignment issues due to use of entire trajectories and a learning signal present only at the terminal time. In this work, we present Diffusion Generative Flow Samplers (DGFS), a sampling-based framework where the learning process can be tractably broken down into short partial trajectory segments, via parameterizing an additional "flow function". Our method takes inspiration from the theory developed for generative flow networks (GFlowNets), allowing us to make use of intermediate learning signals. Through various challenging experiments, we demonstrate that DGFS achieves more accurate estimates of the normalization constant than closely-related prior methods.

In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.

Selecting the best code solution from multiple generated ones is an essential task in code generation, which can be achieved by using some reliable validators (e.g., developer-written test cases) for assistance. Since reliable test cases are not always available and can be expensive to build in practice, researchers propose to automatically generate test cases to assess code solutions. However, when both code solutions and test cases are plausible and not reliable, selecting the best solution becomes challenging. Although some heuristic strategies have been proposed to tackle this problem, they lack a strong theoretical guarantee and it is still an open question whether an optimal selection strategy exists. Our work contributes in two ways. First, we show that within a Bayesian framework, the optimal selection strategy can be defined based on the posterior probability of the observed passing states between solutions and tests. The problem of identifying the best solution is then framed as an integer programming problem. Second, we propose an efficient approach for approximating this optimal (yet uncomputable) strategy, where the approximation error is bounded by the correctness of prior knowledge. We then incorporate effective prior knowledge to tailor code generation tasks. Both theoretical and empirical studies confirm that existing heuristics are limited in selecting the best solutions with plausible test cases. Our proposed approximated optimal strategy B4 significantly surpasses existing heuristics in selecting code solutions generated by large language models (LLMs) with LLM-generated tests, achieving a relative performance improvement by up to 50% over the strongest heuristic and 246% over the random selection in the most challenging scenarios. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZJU-CTAG/B4.

Mean-field games have been used as a theoretical tool to obtain an approximate Nash equilibrium for symmetric and anonymous N-player games. However, limiting applicability, existing theoretical results assume variations of a "population generative model", which allows arbitrary modifications of the population distribution by the learning algorithm. Moreover, learning algorithms typically work on abstract simulators with population instead of the N-player game. Instead, we show that N agents running policy mirror ascent converge to the Nash equilibrium of the regularized game within mathcal{O}(varepsilon^{-2}) samples from a single sample trajectory without a population generative model, up to a standard O(1{N}) error due to the mean field. Taking a divergent approach from the literature, instead of working with the best-response map we first show that a policy mirror ascent map can be used to construct a contractive operator having the Nash equilibrium as its fixed point. We analyze single-path TD learning for N-agent games, proving sample complexity guarantees by only using a sample path from the N-agent simulator without a population generative model. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our methodology allows for independent learning by N agents with finite sample guarantees.

This paper investigates the rationality of large language models (LLMs) in strategic decision-making contexts, specifically within the framework of game theory. We evaluate several state-of-the-art LLMs across a spectrum of complete-information and incomplete-information games. Our findings reveal that LLMs frequently deviate from rational strategies, particularly as the complexity of the game increases with larger payoff matrices or deeper sequential trees. To address these limitations, we design multiple game-theoretic workflows that guide the reasoning and decision-making processes of LLMs. These workflows aim to enhance the models' ability to compute Nash Equilibria and make rational choices, even under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Experimental results demonstrate that the adoption of these workflows significantly improves the rationality and robustness of LLMs in game-theoretic tasks. Specifically, with the workflow, LLMs exhibit marked improvements in identifying optimal strategies, achieving near-optimal allocations in negotiation scenarios, and reducing susceptibility to exploitation during negotiations. Furthermore, we explore the meta-strategic considerations of whether it is rational for agents to adopt such workflows, recognizing that the decision to use or forgo the workflow constitutes a game-theoretic issue in itself. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding of LLMs' decision-making capabilities in strategic contexts and provides insights into enhancing their rationality through structured workflows. The findings have implications for the development of more robust and strategically sound AI agents capable of navigating complex interactive environments. Code and data supporting this study are available at https://github.com/Wenyueh/game_theory.

Diffusion models, a powerful and universal generative AI technology, have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, audio, reinforcement learning, and computational biology. In these applications, diffusion models provide flexible high-dimensional data modeling, and act as a sampler for generating new samples under active guidance towards task-desired properties. Despite the significant empirical success, theory of diffusion models is very limited, potentially slowing down principled methodological innovations for further harnessing and improving diffusion models. In this paper, we review emerging applications of diffusion models, understanding their sample generation under various controls. Next, we overview the existing theories of diffusion models, covering their statistical properties and sampling capabilities. We adopt a progressive routine, beginning with unconditional diffusion models and connecting to conditional counterparts. Further, we review a new avenue in high-dimensional structured optimization through conditional diffusion models, where searching for solutions is reformulated as a conditional sampling problem and solved by diffusion models. Lastly, we discuss future directions about diffusion models. The purpose of this paper is to provide a well-rounded theoretical exposure for stimulating forward-looking theories and methods of diffusion models.

Ensuring sufficient exploration is a central challenge when training meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) agents to solve novel environments. Conventional solutions to the exploration-exploitation dilemma inject explicit incentives such as randomization, uncertainty bonuses, or intrinsic rewards to encourage exploration. In this work, we hypothesize that an agent trained solely to maximize a greedy (exploitation-only) objective can nonetheless exhibit emergent exploratory behavior, provided three conditions are met: (1) Recurring Environmental Structure, where the environment features repeatable regularities that allow past experience to inform future choices; (2) Agent Memory, enabling the agent to retain and utilize historical interaction data; and (3) Long-Horizon Credit Assignment, where learning propagates returns over a time frame sufficient for the delayed benefits of exploration to inform current decisions. Through experiments in stochastic multi-armed bandits and temporally extended gridworlds, we observe that, when both structure and memory are present, a policy trained on a strictly greedy objective exhibits information-seeking exploratory behavior. We further demonstrate, through controlled ablations, that emergent exploration vanishes if either environmental structure or agent memory is absent (Conditions 1 & 2). Surprisingly, removing long-horizon credit assignment (Condition 3) does not always prevent emergent exploration-a result we attribute to the pseudo-Thompson Sampling effect. These findings suggest that, under the right prerequisites, exploration and exploitation need not be treated as orthogonal objectives but can emerge from a unified reward-maximization process.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Multitask Reinforcement Learning (MTRL) approaches have gained increasing attention for its wide applications in many important Reinforcement Learning (RL) tasks. However, while recent advancements in MTRL theory have focused on the improved statistical efficiency by assuming a shared structure across tasks, exploration--a crucial aspect of RL--has been largely overlooked. This paper addresses this gap by showing that when an agent is trained on a sufficiently diverse set of tasks, a generic policy-sharing algorithm with myopic exploration design like epsilon-greedy that are inefficient in general can be sample-efficient for MTRL. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theoretical demonstration of the "exploration benefits" of MTRL. It may also shed light on the enigmatic success of the wide applications of myopic exploration in practice. To validate the role of diversity, we conduct experiments on synthetic robotic control environments, where the diverse task set aligns with the task selection by automatic curriculum learning, which is empirically shown to improve sample-efficiency.

Tasks requiring deductive reasoning, especially those involving multiple steps, often demand adaptive strategies such as intermediate generation of rationales or programs, as no single approach is universally optimal. While Language Models (LMs) can enhance their outputs through iterative self-refinement and strategy adjustments, they frequently fail to apply the most effective strategy in their first attempt. This inefficiency raises the question: Can LMs learn to select the optimal strategy in the first attempt, without a need for refinement? To address this challenge, we introduce SMART (Self-learning Meta-strategy Agent for Reasoning Tasks), a novel framework that enables LMs to autonomously learn and select the most effective strategies for various reasoning tasks. We model the strategy selection process as a Markov Decision Process and leverage reinforcement learning-driven continuous self-improvement to allow the model to find the suitable strategy to solve a given task. Unlike traditional self-refinement methods that rely on multiple inference passes or external feedback, SMART allows an LM to internalize the outcomes of its own reasoning processes and adjust its strategy accordingly, aiming for correct solutions on the first attempt. Our experiments across various reasoning datasets and with different model architectures demonstrate that SMART significantly enhances the ability of models to choose optimal strategies without external guidance (+15 points on the GSM8K dataset). By achieving higher accuracy with a single inference pass, SMART not only improves performance but also reduces computational costs for refinement-based strategies, paving the way for more efficient and intelligent reasoning in LMs.

We study offline multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) in Markov games, where the goal is to learn an approximate equilibrium -- such as Nash equilibrium and (Coarse) Correlated Equilibrium -- from an offline dataset pre-collected from the game. Existing works consider relatively restricted tabular or linear models and handle each equilibria separately. In this work, we provide the first framework for sample-efficient offline learning in Markov games under general function approximation, handling all 3 equilibria in a unified manner. By using Bellman-consistent pessimism, we obtain interval estimation for policies' returns, and use both the upper and the lower bounds to obtain a relaxation on the gap of a candidate policy, which becomes our optimization objective. Our results generalize prior works and provide several additional insights. Importantly, we require a data coverage condition that improves over the recently proposed "unilateral concentrability". Our condition allows selective coverage of deviation policies that optimally trade-off between their greediness (as approximate best responses) and coverage, and we show scenarios where this leads to significantly better guarantees. As a new connection, we also show how our algorithmic framework can subsume seemingly different solution concepts designed for the special case of two-player zero-sum games.

Reinforcement learning applied to large language models (LLMs) for reasoning tasks is often bottlenecked by unstable gradient estimates due to fixed and uniform sampling of responses across prompts. Prior work such as GVM-RAFT addresses this by dynamically allocating inference budget per prompt to minimize stochastic gradient variance under a budget constraint. Inspired by this insight, we propose Reinforce-Ada, an adaptive sampling framework for online RL post-training of LLMs that continuously reallocates sampling effort to the prompts with the greatest uncertainty or learning potential. Unlike conventional two-stage allocation methods, Reinforce-Ada interleaves estimation and sampling in an online successive elimination process, and automatically stops sampling for a prompt once sufficient signal is collected. To stabilize updates, we form fixed-size groups with enforced reward diversity and compute advantage baselines using global statistics aggregated over the adaptive sampling phase. Empirical results across multiple model architectures and reasoning benchmarks show that Reinforce-Ada accelerates convergence and improves final performance compared to GRPO, especially when using the balanced sampling variant. Our work highlights the central role of variance-aware, adaptive data curation in enabling efficient and reliable reinforcement learning for reasoning-capable LLMs. Code is available at https://github.com/RLHFlow/Reinforce-Ada.

In machine learning, the notion of multi-armed bandits refers to a class of online learning problems, in which an agent is supposed to simultaneously explore and exploit a given set of choice alternatives in the course of a sequential decision process. In the standard setting, the agent learns from stochastic feedback in the form of real-valued rewards. In many applications, however, numerical reward signals are not readily available -- instead, only weaker information is provided, in particular relative preferences in the form of qualitative comparisons between pairs of alternatives. This observation has motivated the study of variants of the multi-armed bandit problem, in which more general representations are used both for the type of feedback to learn from and the target of prediction. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of the state of the art in this field, referred to as preference-based multi-armed bandits or dueling bandits. To this end, we provide an overview of problems that have been considered in the literature as well as methods for tackling them. Our taxonomy is mainly based on the assumptions made by these methods about the data-generating process and, related to this, the properties of the preference-based feedback.

This paper presents a simple, effective, and cost-efficient strategy to improve LLM performance by scaling test-time compute. Our strategy builds upon the repeated-sampling-then-voting framework, with a novel twist: incorporating multiple models, even weaker ones, to leverage their complementary strengths that potentially arise from diverse training data and paradigms. By using consistency as a signal, our strategy dynamically switches between models. Theoretical analysis highlights the efficiency and performance advantages of our strategy. Extensive experiments on six datasets demonstrate that our strategy not only outperforms self-consistency and state-of-the-art multi-agent debate approaches, but also significantly reduces inference costs. Additionally, ModelSwitch requires only a few comparable LLMs to achieve optimal performance and can be extended with verification methods, demonstrating the potential of leveraging multiple LLMs in the generation-verification paradigm.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) allows agents to learn effective, return-maximizing policies from a static dataset. Three popular algorithms for offline RL are Conservative Q-Learning (CQL), Behavior Cloning (BC), and Decision Transformer (DT), from the class of Q-Learning, Imitation Learning, and Sequence Modeling respectively. A key open question is: which algorithm is preferred under what conditions? We study this question empirically by exploring the performance of these algorithms across the commonly used D4RL and Robomimic benchmarks. We design targeted experiments to understand their behavior concerning data suboptimality, task complexity, and stochasticity. Our key findings are: (1) DT requires more data than CQL to learn competitive policies but is more robust; (2) DT is a substantially better choice than both CQL and BC in sparse-reward and low-quality data settings; (3) DT and BC are preferable as task horizon increases, or when data is obtained from human demonstrators; and (4) CQL excels in situations characterized by the combination of high stochasticity and low data quality. We also investigate architectural choices and scaling trends for DT on Atari and D4RL and make design/scaling recommendations. We find that scaling the amount of data for DT by 5x gives a 2.5x average score improvement on Atari.

Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) is a framework for dealing with the logged bandit feedback problem, where the goal is to improve a logging policy using offline data. In this paper, we explore the case where it is possible to deploy learned policies multiple times and acquire new data. We extend the CRM principle and its theory to this scenario, which we call "Sequential Counterfactual Risk Minimization (SCRM)." We introduce a novel counterfactual estimator and identify conditions that can improve the performance of CRM in terms of excess risk and regret rates, by using an analysis similar to restart strategies in accelerated optimization methods. We also provide an empirical evaluation of our method in both discrete and continuous action settings, and demonstrate the benefits of multiple deployments of CRM.

Recent studies have shown that episodic reinforcement learning (RL) is no harder than bandits when the total reward is bounded by 1, and proved regret bounds that have a polylogarithmic dependence on the planning horizon H. However, it remains an open question that if such results can be carried over to adversarial RL, where the reward is adversarially chosen at each episode. In this paper, we answer this question affirmatively by proposing the first horizon-free policy search algorithm. To tackle the challenges caused by exploration and adversarially chosen reward, our algorithm employs (1) a variance-uncertainty-aware weighted least square estimator for the transition kernel; and (2) an occupancy measure-based technique for the online search of a stochastic policy. We show that our algorithm achieves an Obig((d+log (|S|^2 |A|))Kbig) regret with full-information feedback, where d is the dimension of a known feature mapping linearly parametrizing the unknown transition kernel of the MDP, K is the number of episodes, |S| and |A| are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. We also provide hardness results and regret lower bounds to justify the near optimality of our algorithm and the unavoidability of log|S| and log|A| in the regret bound.

This paper introduces Alympics (Olympics for Agents), a systematic simulation framework utilizing Large Language Model (LLM) agents for game theory research. Alympics creates a versatile platform for studying complex game theory problems, bridging the gap between theoretical game theory and empirical investigations by providing a controlled environment for simulating human-like strategic interactions with LLM agents. In our pilot case study, the "Water Allocation Challenge," we explore Alympics through a challenging strategic game focused on the multi-round auction on scarce survival resources. This study demonstrates the framework's ability to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze game determinants, strategies, and outcomes. Additionally, we conduct a comprehensive human assessment and an in-depth evaluation of LLM agents in strategic decision-making scenarios. Our findings not only expand the understanding of LLM agents' proficiency in emulating human strategic behavior but also highlight their potential in advancing game theory knowledge, thereby enriching our understanding of both game theory and empowering further research into strategic decision-making domains with LLM agents. Codes, prompts, and all related resources are available at https://github.com/microsoft/Alympics.

Memory-based meta-learning is a powerful technique to build agents that adapt fast to any task within a target distribution. A previous theoretical study has argued that this remarkable performance is because the meta-training protocol incentivises agents to behave Bayes-optimally. We empirically investigate this claim on a number of prediction and bandit tasks. Inspired by ideas from theoretical computer science, we show that meta-learned and Bayes-optimal agents not only behave alike, but they even share a similar computational structure, in the sense that one agent system can approximately simulate the other. Furthermore, we show that Bayes-optimal agents are fixed points of the meta-learning dynamics. Our results suggest that memory-based meta-learning might serve as a general technique for numerically approximating Bayes-optimal agents - that is, even for task distributions for which we currently don't possess tractable models.

Conjoint analysis, an application of factorial experimental design, is a popular tool in social science research for studying multidimensional preferences. In such experiments in the political analysis context, respondents are asked to choose between two hypothetical political candidates with randomly selected features, which can include partisanship, policy positions, gender and race. We consider the problem of identifying optimal candidate profiles. Because the number of unique feature combinations far exceeds the total number of observations in a typical conjoint experiment, it is impossible to determine the optimal profile exactly. To address this identification challenge, we derive an optimal stochastic intervention that represents a probability distribution of various attributes aimed at achieving the most favorable average outcome. We first consider an environment where one political party optimizes their candidate selection. We then move to the more realistic case where two political parties optimize their own candidate selection simultaneously and in opposition to each other. We apply the proposed methodology to an existing candidate choice conjoint experiment concerning vote choice for US president. We find that, in contrast to the non-adversarial approach, expected outcomes in the adversarial regime fall within range of historical electoral outcomes, with optimal strategies suggested by the method more likely to match the actual observed candidates compared to strategies derived from a non-adversarial approach. These findings indicate that incorporating adversarial dynamics into conjoint analysis may yield unique insight into social science data from experiments.

Recent years have witnessed significant progress in developing efficient training and fast sampling approaches for diffusion models. A recent remarkable advancement is the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to describe data perturbation and generative modeling in a unified mathematical framework. In this paper, we reveal several intriguing geometric structures of diffusion models and contribute a simple yet powerful interpretation to their sampling dynamics. Through carefully inspecting a popular variance-exploding SDE and its marginal-preserving ordinary differential equation (ODE) for sampling, we discover that the data distribution and the noise distribution are smoothly connected with an explicit, quasi-linear sampling trajectory, and another implicit denoising trajectory, which even converges faster in terms of visual quality. We also establish a theoretical relationship between the optimal ODE-based sampling and the classic mean-shift (mode-seeking) algorithm, with which we can characterize the asymptotic behavior of diffusion models and identify the score deviation. These new geometric observations enable us to improve previous sampling algorithms, re-examine latent interpolation, as well as re-explain the working principles of distillation-based fast sampling techniques.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Reinforcement learning has demonstrated great potential for performing financial tasks. However, it faces two major challenges: policy instability and sampling bottlenecks. In this paper, we revisit ensemble methods with massively parallel simulations on graphics processing units (GPUs), significantly enhancing the computational efficiency and robustness of trained models in volatile financial markets. Our approach leverages the parallel processing capability of GPUs to significantly improve the sampling speed for training ensemble models. The ensemble models combine the strengths of component agents to improve the robustness of financial decision-making strategies. We conduct experiments in both stock and cryptocurrency trading tasks to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Massively parallel simulation on a single GPU improves the sampling speed by up to 1,746times using 2,048 parallel environments compared to a single environment. The ensemble models have high cumulative returns and outperform some individual agents, reducing maximum drawdown by up to 4.17% and improving the Sharpe ratio by up to 0.21. This paper describes trading tasks at ACM ICAIF FinRL Contests in 2023 and 2024.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

While reinforcement learning methods such as Group Relative Preference Optimization (GRPO) have significantly enhanced Large Language Models, adapting them to diffusion models remains challenging. In particular, GRPO demands a stochastic policy, yet the most cost-effective diffusion samplers are based on deterministic ODEs. Recent work addresses this issue by using inefficient SDE-based samplers to induce stochasticity, but this reliance on model-agnostic Gaussian noise leads to slow convergence. To resolve this conflict, we propose Direct Group Preference Optimization (DGPO), a new online RL algorithm that dispenses with the policy-gradient framework entirely. DGPO learns directly from group-level preferences, which utilize relative information of samples within groups. This design eliminates the need for inefficient stochastic policies, unlocking the use of efficient deterministic ODE samplers and faster training. Extensive results show that DGPO trains around 20 times faster than existing state-of-the-art methods and achieves superior performance on both in-domain and out-of-domain reward metrics. Code is available at https://github.com/Luo-Yihong/DGPO.

We present the LLM Economist, a novel framework that uses agent-based modeling to design and assess economic policies in strategic environments with hierarchical decision-making. At the lower level, bounded rational worker agents -- instantiated as persona-conditioned prompts sampled from U.S. Census-calibrated income and demographic statistics -- choose labor supply to maximize text-based utility functions learned in-context. At the upper level, a planner agent employs in-context reinforcement learning to propose piecewise-linear marginal tax schedules anchored to the current U.S. federal brackets. This construction endows economic simulacra with three capabilities requisite for credible fiscal experimentation: (i) optimization of heterogeneous utilities, (ii) principled generation of large, demographically realistic agent populations, and (iii) mechanism design -- the ultimate nudging problem -- expressed entirely in natural language. Experiments with populations of up to one hundred interacting agents show that the planner converges near Stackelberg equilibria that improve aggregate social welfare relative to Saez solutions, while a periodic, persona-level voting procedure furthers these gains under decentralized governance. These results demonstrate that large language model-based agents can jointly model, simulate, and govern complex economic systems, providing a tractable test bed for policy evaluation at the societal scale to help build better civilizations.

The Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) remains a fundamental challenge in combinatorial optimization, inspiring diverse algorithmic strategies. This paper revisits the "heatmap + Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)" paradigm that has recently gained traction for learning-based TSP solutions. Within this framework, heatmaps encode the likelihood of edges forming part of the optimal tour, and MCTS refines this probabilistic guidance to discover optimal solutions. Contemporary approaches have predominantly emphasized the refinement of heatmap generation through sophisticated learning models, inadvertently sidelining the critical role of MCTS. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals two pivotal insights: 1) The configuration of MCTS strategies profoundly influences the solution quality, demanding meticulous tuning to leverage their full potential; 2) Our findings demonstrate that a rudimentary and parameter-free heatmap, derived from the intrinsic k-nearest nature of TSP, can rival or even surpass the performance of complicated heatmaps, with strong generalizability across various scales. Empirical evaluations across various TSP scales underscore the efficacy of our approach, achieving competitive results. These observations challenge the prevailing focus on heatmap sophistication, advocating a reevaluation of the paradigm to harness both components synergistically. Our code is available at: https://github.com/LOGO-CUHKSZ/rethink_mcts_tsp.

We initiate the study of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (MARLHF), exploring both theoretical foundations and empirical validations. We define the task as identifying Nash equilibrium from a preference-only offline dataset in general-sum games, a problem marked by the challenge of sparse feedback signals. Our theory establishes the upper complexity bounds for Nash Equilibrium in effective MARLHF, demonstrating that single-policy coverage is inadequate and highlighting the importance of unilateral dataset coverage. These theoretical insights are verified through comprehensive experiments. To enhance the practical performance, we further introduce two algorithmic techniques. (1) We propose a Mean Squared Error (MSE) regularization along the time axis to achieve a more uniform reward distribution and improve reward learning outcomes. (2) We utilize imitation learning to approximate the reference policy, ensuring stability and effectiveness in training. Our findings underscore the multifaceted approach required for MARLHF, paving the way for effective preference-based multi-agent systems.

Learning optimal policies in sparse rewards settings is difficult as the learning agent has little to no feedback on the quality of its actions. In these situations, a good strategy is to focus on exploration, hopefully leading to the discovery of a reward signal to improve on. A learning algorithm capable of dealing with this kind of settings has to be able to (1) explore possible agent behaviors and (2) exploit any possible discovered reward. Efficient exploration algorithms have been proposed that require to define a behavior space, that associates to an agent its resulting behavior in a space that is known to be worth exploring. The need to define this space is a limitation of these algorithms. In this work, we introduce STAX, an algorithm designed to learn a behavior space on-the-fly and to explore it while efficiently optimizing any reward discovered. It does so by separating the exploration and learning of the behavior space from the exploitation of the reward through an alternating two-steps process. In the first step, STAX builds a repertoire of diverse policies while learning a low-dimensional representation of the high-dimensional observations generated during the policies evaluation. In the exploitation step, emitters are used to optimize the performance of the discovered rewarding solutions. Experiments conducted on three different sparse reward environments show that STAX performs comparably to existing baselines while requiring much less prior information about the task as it autonomously builds the behavior space.

This work proposes a simple yet effective sampling framework for combinatorial optimization (CO). Our method builds on discrete Langevin dynamics (LD), an efficient gradient-guided generative paradigm. However, we observe that directly applying LD often leads to limited exploration. To overcome this limitation, we propose the Regularized Langevin Dynamics (RLD), which enforces an expected distance between the sampled and current solutions, effectively avoiding local minima. We develop two CO solvers on top of RLD, one based on simulated annealing (SA), and the other one based on neural network (NN). Empirical results on three classic CO problems demonstrate that both of our methods can achieve comparable or better performance against the previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) SA- and NN-based solvers. In particular, our SA algorithm reduces the runtime of the previous SOTA SA method by up to 80\%, while achieving equal or superior performance. In summary, RLD offers a promising framework for enhancing both traditional heuristics and NN models to solve CO problems. Our code is available at https://github.com/Shengyu-Feng/RLD4CO.

Score-based diffusion models, while achieving remarkable empirical performance, often suffer from low sampling speed, due to extensive function evaluations needed during the sampling phase. Despite a flurry of recent activities towards speeding up diffusion generative modeling in practice, theoretical underpinnings for acceleration techniques remain severely limited. In this paper, we design novel training-free algorithms to accelerate popular deterministic (i.e., DDIM) and stochastic (i.e., DDPM) samplers. Our accelerated deterministic sampler converges at a rate O(1/{T}^2) with T the number of steps, improving upon the O(1/T) rate for the DDIM sampler; and our accelerated stochastic sampler converges at a rate O(1/T), outperforming the rate O(1/T) for the DDPM sampler. The design of our algorithms leverages insights from higher-order approximation, and shares similar intuitions as popular high-order ODE solvers like the DPM-Solver-2. Our theory accommodates ell_2-accurate score estimates, and does not require log-concavity or smoothness on the target distribution.

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that recovers the data distribution from time-dependent data scores. In this work, we observe that the stochastic reverse process of data scores is a martingale, from which concentration bounds and the optional stopping theorem for data scores can be derived. Then, we discover a simple way for calibrating an arbitrary pretrained DPM, with which the score matching loss can be reduced and the lower bounds of model likelihood can consequently be increased. We provide general calibration guidelines under various model parametrizations. Our calibration method is performed only once and the resulting models can be used repeatedly for sampling. We conduct experiments on multiple datasets to empirically validate our proposal. Our code is at https://github.com/thudzj/Calibrated-DPMs.

Performing Reinforcement Learning in sparse rewards settings, with very little prior knowledge, is a challenging problem since there is no signal to properly guide the learning process. In such situations, a good search strategy is fundamental. At the same time, not having to adapt the algorithm to every single problem is very desirable. Here we introduce TAXONS, a Task Agnostic eXploration of Outcome spaces through Novelty and Surprise algorithm. Based on a population-based divergent-search approach, it learns a set of diverse policies directly from high-dimensional observations, without any task-specific information. TAXONS builds a repertoire of policies while training an autoencoder on the high-dimensional observation of the final state of the system to build a low-dimensional outcome space. The learned outcome space, combined with the reconstruction error, is used to drive the search for new policies. Results show that TAXONS can find a diverse set of controllers, covering a good part of the ground-truth outcome space, while having no information about such space.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) denotes a powerful family of algorithms for recovering a reward function justifying the behavior demonstrated by an expert agent. A well-known limitation of IRL is the ambiguity in the choice of the reward function, due to the existence of multiple rewards that explain the observed behavior. This limitation has been recently circumvented by formulating IRL as the problem of estimating the feasible reward set, i.e., the region of the rewards compatible with the expert's behavior. In this paper, we make a step towards closing the theory gap of IRL in the case of finite-horizon problems with a generative model. We start by formally introducing the problem of estimating the feasible reward set, the corresponding PAC requirement, and discussing the properties of particular classes of rewards. Then, we provide the first minimax lower bound on the sample complexity for the problem of estimating the feasible reward set of order {Omega}Bigl( H^3SA{epsilon^2} bigl( log bigl(1{delta}bigl) + S bigl)Bigl), being S and A the number of states and actions respectively, H the horizon, epsilon the desired accuracy, and delta the confidence. We analyze the sample complexity of a uniform sampling strategy (US-IRL), proving a matching upper bound up to logarithmic factors. Finally, we outline several open questions in IRL and propose future research directions.

Dynamical generative models that produce samples through an iterative process, such as Flow Matching and denoising diffusion models, have seen widespread use, but there have not been many theoretically-sound methods for improving these models with reward fine-tuning. In this work, we cast reward fine-tuning as stochastic optimal control (SOC). Critically, we prove that a very specific memoryless noise schedule must be enforced during fine-tuning, in order to account for the dependency between the noise variable and the generated samples. We also propose a new algorithm named Adjoint Matching which outperforms existing SOC algorithms, by casting SOC problems as a regression problem. We find that our approach significantly improves over existing methods for reward fine-tuning, achieving better consistency, realism, and generalization to unseen human preference reward models, while retaining sample diversity.

This monograph presents the main complexity theorems in convex optimization and their corresponding algorithms. Starting from the fundamental theory of black-box optimization, the material progresses towards recent advances in structural optimization and stochastic optimization. Our presentation of black-box optimization, strongly influenced by Nesterov's seminal book and Nemirovski's lecture notes, includes the analysis of cutting plane methods, as well as (accelerated) gradient descent schemes. We also pay special attention to non-Euclidean settings (relevant algorithms include Frank-Wolfe, mirror descent, and dual averaging) and discuss their relevance in machine learning. We provide a gentle introduction to structural optimization with FISTA (to optimize a sum of a smooth and a simple non-smooth term), saddle-point mirror prox (Nemirovski's alternative to Nesterov's smoothing), and a concise description of interior point methods. In stochastic optimization we discuss stochastic gradient descent, mini-batches, random coordinate descent, and sublinear algorithms. We also briefly touch upon convex relaxation of combinatorial problems and the use of randomness to round solutions, as well as random walks based methods.

We study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with a fixed risk tolerance tau. Prior theoretical work studying risk-sensitive RL focuses on the tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) setting. To extend CVaR RL to settings where state space is large, function approximation must be deployed. We study CVaR RL in low-rank MDPs with nonlinear function approximation. Low-rank MDPs assume the underlying transition kernel admits a low-rank decomposition, but unlike prior linear models, low-rank MDPs do not assume the feature or state-action representation is known. We propose a novel Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) bonus-driven algorithm to carefully balance the interplay between exploration, exploitation, and representation learning in CVaR RL. We prove that our algorithm achieves a sample complexity of Oleft(H^7 A^2 d^4{tau^2 epsilon^2}right) to yield an epsilon-optimal CVaR, where H is the length of each episode, A is the capacity of action space, and d is the dimension of representations. Computational-wise, we design a novel discretized Least-Squares Value Iteration (LSVI) algorithm for the CVaR objective as the planning oracle and show that we can find the near-optimal policy in a polynomial running time with a Maximum Likelihood Estimation oracle. To our knowledge, this is the first provably efficient CVaR RL algorithm in low-rank MDPs.

We revisit the noisy binary search model of Karp and Kleinberg, in which we have n coins with unknown probabilities p_i that we can flip. The coins are sorted by increasing p_i, and we would like to find where the probability crosses (to within varepsilon) of a target value tau. This generalized the fixed-noise model of Burnashev and Zigangirov , in which p_i = 1{2} pm varepsilon, to a setting where coins near the target may be indistinguishable from it. Karp and Kleinberg showed that Theta(1{varepsilon^2} log n) samples are necessary and sufficient for this task. We produce a practical algorithm by solving two theoretical challenges: high-probability behavior and sharp constants. We give an algorithm that succeeds with probability 1-delta from \[ 1{C_{\tau, \varepsilon}} \cdot \left(\lg n + O(\log^{2/3} n \log^{1/3} 1{\delta} + \log 1{\delta})\right) \] samples, where C_{tau, varepsilon} is the optimal such constant achievable. For delta > n^{-o(1)} this is within 1 + o(1) of optimal, and for delta ll 1 it is the first bound within constant factors of optimal.

Post-training language models (LMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) can enhance their complex reasoning capabilities without supervised fine-tuning, as demonstrated by DeepSeek-R1-Zero. However, effectively utilizing RL for LMs requires significant parallelization to scale-up inference, which introduces non-trivial technical challenges (e.g. latency, memory, and reliability) alongside ever-growing financial costs. We present Swarm sAmpling Policy Optimization (SAPO), a fully decentralized and asynchronous RL post-training algorithm. SAPO is designed for decentralized networks of heterogenous compute nodes, where each node manages its own policy model(s) while "sharing" rollouts with others in the network; no explicit assumptions about latency, model homogeneity, or hardware are required and nodes can operate in silo if desired. As a result, the algorithm avoids common bottlenecks in scaling RL post-training while also allowing (and even encouraging) new possibilities. By sampling rollouts "shared" across the network, it enables "Aha moments" to propagate, thereby bootstrapping the learning process. In this paper we show SAPO achieved cumulative reward gains of up to 94% in controlled experiments. We also share insights from tests on a network with thousands of nodes contributed by Gensyn community members running the algorithm on diverse hardware and models during an open-source demo.

Sampling is a basic operation in many inference-time algorithms of large language models (LLMs). To scale up inference efficiently with a limited compute, it is crucial to find an optimal allocation for sample compute budgets: Which sampling configurations (model, temperature, language, etc.) do we use? How many samples do we generate in each configuration? We formulate these choices as a learning problem and propose OSCA, an algorithm that Optimizes Sample Compute Allocation by finding an optimal mix of different inference configurations. Our experiments show that with our learned mixed allocation, we can achieve accuracy better than the best single configuration with 128x less compute on code generation and 25x less compute on 4 reasoning tasks. OSCA is also shown to be effective in agentic workflows beyond single-turn tasks, achieving a better accuracy on SWE-Bench with 3x less compute than the default configuration. Our code and generations are released at https://github.com/LeiLiLab/OSCA.

Motivated by equilibrium models of labor markets, we develop a formulation of causal strategic classification in which strategic agents can directly manipulate their outcomes. As an application, we compare employers that anticipate the strategic response of a labor force with employers that do not. We show through a combination of theory and experiment that employers with performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer reward, labor force skill level, and in some cases labor force equity. On the other hand, we demonstrate that performative employers harm labor force utility and fail to prevent discrimination in other cases.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

Diffusion models have recently shown significant potential in solving decision-making problems, particularly in generating behavior plans -- also known as diffusion planning. While numerous studies have demonstrated the impressive performance of diffusion planning, the mechanisms behind the key components of a good diffusion planner remain unclear and the design choices are highly inconsistent in existing studies. In this work, we address this issue through systematic empirical experiments on diffusion planning in an offline reinforcement learning (RL) setting, providing practical insights into the essential components of diffusion planning. We trained and evaluated over 6,000 diffusion models, identifying the critical components such as guided sampling, network architecture, action generation and planning strategy. We revealed that some design choices opposite to the common practice in previous work in diffusion planning actually lead to better performance, e.g., unconditional sampling with selection can be better than guided sampling and Transformer outperforms U-Net as denoising network. Based on these insights, we suggest a simple yet strong diffusion planning baseline that achieves state-of-the-art results on standard offline RL benchmarks.

There is a strong link between the general concept of intelligence and the ability to collect and use information. The theory of Bayes-adaptive exploration offers an attractive optimality framework for training machines to perform complex information gathering tasks. However, the computational complexity of the resulting optimal control problem has limited the diffusion of the theory to mainstream deep AI research. In this paper we exploit the inherent mathematical structure of Bayes-adaptive problems in order to dramatically simplify the problem by making the reward structure denser while simultaneously decoupling the learning of exploitation and exploration policies. The key to this simplification comes from the novel concept of cross-value (i.e. the value of being in an environment while acting optimally according to another), which we use to quantify the value of currently available information. This results in a new denser reward structure that "cashes in" all future rewards that can be predicted from the current information state. In a set of experiments we show that the approach makes it possible to learn challenging information gathering tasks without the use of shaping and heuristic bonuses in situations where the standard RL algorithms fail.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular, surrogate model-based approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. Given a surrogate model, the next location to expensively evaluate is chosen via maximisation of a cheap-to-query acquisition function. We present an epsilon-greedy procedure for Bayesian optimisation in batch settings in which the black-box function can be evaluated multiple times in parallel. Our epsilon-shotgun algorithm leverages the model's prediction, uncertainty, and the approximated rate of change of the landscape to determine the spread of batch solutions to be distributed around a putative location. The initial target location is selected either in an exploitative fashion on the mean prediction, or -- with probability epsilon -- from elsewhere in the design space. This results in locations that are more densely sampled in regions where the function is changing rapidly and in locations predicted to be good (i.e close to predicted optima), with more scattered samples in regions where the function is flatter and/or of poorer quality. We empirically evaluate the epsilon-shotgun methods on a range of synthetic functions and two real-world problems, finding that they perform at least as well as state-of-the-art batch methods and in many cases exceed their performance.

Cascades are a classical strategy to enable inference cost to vary adaptively across samples, wherein a sequence of classifiers are invoked in turn. A deferral rule determines whether to invoke the next classifier in the sequence, or to terminate prediction. One simple deferral rule employs the confidence of the current classifier, e.g., based on the maximum predicted softmax probability. Despite being oblivious to the structure of the cascade -- e.g., not modelling the errors of downstream models -- such confidence-based deferral often works remarkably well in practice. In this paper, we seek to better understand the conditions under which confidence-based deferral may fail, and when alternate deferral strategies can perform better. We first present a theoretical characterisation of the optimal deferral rule, which precisely characterises settings under which confidence-based deferral may suffer. We then study post-hoc deferral mechanisms, and demonstrate they can significantly improve upon confidence-based deferral in settings where (i) downstream models are specialists that only work well on a subset of inputs, (ii) samples are subject to label noise, and (iii) there is distribution shift between the train and test set.

In this paper, we introduce a new class of score-based generative models (SGMs) designed to handle high-cardinality data distributions by leveraging concepts from mean-field theory. We present mean-field chaos diffusion models (MF-CDMs), which address the curse of dimensionality inherent in high-cardinality data by utilizing the propagation of chaos property of interacting particles. By treating high-cardinality data as a large stochastic system of interacting particles, we develop a novel score-matching method for infinite-dimensional chaotic particle systems and propose an approximation scheme that employs a subdivision strategy for efficient training. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of MF-CDMs for managing large high-cardinality data structures, such as 3D point clouds.

Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) are critical in many high-stakes applications, where decisions must optimize cumulative rewards while strictly adhering to complex nonlinear constraints. In domains such as power systems, finance, supply chains, and precision robotics, violating these constraints can result in significant financial or societal costs. Existing Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods often struggle with sample efficiency and effectiveness in finding feasible policies for highly and strictly constrained CMDPs, limiting their applicability in these environments. Stochastic dual dynamic programming is often used in practice on convex relaxations of the original problem, but they also encounter computational challenges and loss of optimality. This paper introduces a novel approach, Two-Stage Deep Decision Rules (TS-DDR), to efficiently train parametric actor policies using Lagrangian Duality. TS-DDR is a self-supervised learning algorithm that trains general decision rules (parametric policies) using stochastic gradient descent (SGD); its forward passes solve {\em deterministic} optimization problems to find feasible policies, and its backward passes leverage duality theory to train the parametric policy with closed-form gradients. TS-DDR inherits the flexibility and computational performance of deep learning methodologies to solve CMDP problems. Applied to the Long-Term Hydrothermal Dispatch (LTHD) problem using actual power system data from Bolivia, TS-DDR is shown to enhance solution quality and to reduce computation times by several orders of magnitude when compared to current state-of-the-art methods.

We study a distributed stochastic multi-armed bandit where a client supplies the learner with communication-constrained feedback based on the rewards for the corresponding arm pulls. In our setup, the client must encode the rewards such that the second moment of the encoded rewards is no more than P, and this encoded reward is further corrupted by additive Gaussian noise of variance sigma^2; the learner only has access to this corrupted reward. For this setting, we derive an information-theoretic lower bound of Omegaleft(frac{KT{SNR wedge1}} right) on the minimax regret of any scheme, where SNR := P{sigma^2}, and K and T are the number of arms and time horizon, respectively. Furthermore, we propose a multi-phase bandit algorithm, UEtext{-UCB++}, which matches this lower bound to a minor additive factor. UEtext{-UCB++} performs uniform exploration in its initial phases and then utilizes the {\em upper confidence bound }(UCB) bandit algorithm in its final phase. An interesting feature of UEtext{-UCB++} is that the coarser estimates of the mean rewards formed during a uniform exploration phase help to refine the encoding protocol in the next phase, leading to more accurate mean estimates of the rewards in the subsequent phase. This positive reinforcement cycle is critical to reducing the number of uniform exploration rounds and closely matching our lower bound.

We propose an inference-time scaling approach for pretrained flow models. Recently, inference-time scaling has gained significant attention in LLMs and diffusion models, improving sample quality or better aligning outputs with user preferences by leveraging additional computation. For diffusion models, particle sampling has allowed more efficient scaling due to the stochasticity at intermediate denoising steps. On the contrary, while flow models have gained popularity as an alternative to diffusion models--offering faster generation and high-quality outputs in state-of-the-art image and video generative models--efficient inference-time scaling methods used for diffusion models cannot be directly applied due to their deterministic generative process. To enable efficient inference-time scaling for flow models, we propose three key ideas: 1) SDE-based generation, enabling particle sampling in flow models, 2) Interpolant conversion, broadening the search space and enhancing sample diversity, and 3) Rollover Budget Forcing (RBF), an adaptive allocation of computational resources across timesteps to maximize budget utilization. Our experiments show that SDE-based generation, particularly variance-preserving (VP) interpolant-based generation, improves the performance of particle sampling methods for inference-time scaling in flow models. Additionally, we demonstrate that RBF with VP-SDE achieves the best performance, outperforming all previous inference-time scaling approaches.

We present evidence of substantial benefit from efficient exploration in gathering human feedback to improve large language models. In our experiments, an agent sequentially generates queries while fitting a reward model to the feedback received. Our best-performing agent generates queries using double Thompson sampling, with uncertainty represented by an epistemic neural network. Our results demonstrate that efficient exploration enables high levels of performance with far fewer queries. Further, both uncertainty estimation and the choice of exploration scheme play critical roles.

Recent advances in masked diffusion models (MDMs) have established them as powerful non-autoregressive alternatives for sequence generation. Nevertheless, our preliminary experiments reveal that the generation quality of MDMs is still highly sensitive to the choice of decoding strategy. In particular, widely adopted uncertainty-based samplers suffer from two key limitations: a lack of global trajectory control and a pronounced bias toward trivial tokens in the early stages of decoding. These shortcomings restrict the full potential of MDMs. In this work, we introduce Position-Aware Confidence-Calibrated Sampling (PC-Sampler), a novel decoding strategy that unifies global trajectory planning with content-aware informativeness maximization. PC-Sampler incorporates a position-aware weighting mechanism to regulate the decoding path and a calibrated confidence score to suppress the premature selection of trivial tokens. Extensive experiments on three advanced MDMs across seven challenging benchmarks-including logical reasoning and planning tasks-demonstrate that PC-Sampler consistently outperforms existing MDM decoding strategies by more than 10% on average, significantly narrowing the performance gap with state-of-the-art autoregressive models. All codes are available at https://github.com/NEUIR/PC-Sampler.

The performance of acquisition functions for Bayesian optimisation to locate the global optimum of continuous functions is investigated in terms of the Pareto front between exploration and exploitation. We show that Expected Improvement (EI) and the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) always select solutions to be expensively evaluated on the Pareto front, but Probability of Improvement is not guaranteed to do so and Weighted Expected Improvement does so only for a restricted range of weights. We introduce two novel epsilon-greedy acquisition functions. Extensive empirical evaluation of these together with random search, purely exploratory, and purely exploitative search on 10 benchmark problems in 1 to 10 dimensions shows that epsilon-greedy algorithms are generally at least as effective as conventional acquisition functions (e.g., EI and UCB), particularly with a limited budget. In higher dimensions epsilon-greedy approaches are shown to have improved performance over conventional approaches. These results are borne out on a real world computational fluid dynamics optimisation problem and a robotics active learning problem. Our analysis and experiments suggest that the most effective strategy, particularly in higher dimensions, is to be mostly greedy, occasionally selecting a random exploratory solution.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.