Daily Papers

While autoregressive machine-learning-based emulators have been trained to produce stable and accurate rollouts in the climate of the present-day and recent past, none so far have been trained to emulate the sensitivity of climate to substantial changes in CO_2 or other greenhouse gases. As an initial step we couple the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 to a slab ocean model (hereafter ACE2-SOM) and train it on output from a collection of equilibrium-climate physics-based reference simulations with varying levels of CO_2. We test it in equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate scenarios with CO_2 concentrations seen and unseen in training. ACE2-SOM performs well in equilibrium-climate inference with both in-sample and out-of-sample CO_2 concentrations, accurately reproducing the emergent time-mean spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change with CO_2 doubling, tripling, or quadrupling. In addition, the vertical profile of atmospheric warming and change in extreme precipitation rates with increased CO_2 closely agree with the reference model. Non-equilibrium-climate inference is more challenging. With CO_2 increasing gradually at a rate of 2% year^{-1}, ACE2-SOM can accurately emulate the global annual mean trends of surface and lower-to-middle atmosphere fields but produces unphysical jumps in stratospheric fields. With an abrupt quadrupling of CO_2, ML-controlled fields transition unrealistically quickly to the 4xCO_2 regime. In doing so they violate global energy conservation and exhibit unphysical sensitivities of and surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes to instantaneous changes in CO_2. Future emulator development needed to address these issues should improve its generalizability to diverse climate change scenarios.

This paper presents optical night sky brightness measurements from the stratosphere using CCD images taken with the Super-pressure Balloon-borne Imaging Telescope (SuperBIT). The data used for estimating the backgrounds were obtained during three commissioning flights in 2016, 2018, and 2019 at altitudes ranging from 28 km to 34 km above sea level. For a valid comparison of the brightness measurements from the stratosphere with measurements from mountain-top ground-based observatories (taken at zenith on the darkest moonless night at high Galactic and high ecliptic latitudes), the stratospheric brightness levels were zodiacal light and diffuse Galactic light subtracted, and the airglow brightness was projected to zenith. The stratospheric brightness was measured around 5.5 hours, 3 hours, and 2 hours before the local sunrise time in 2016, 2018, and 2019 respectively. The B, V, R, and I brightness levels in 2016 were 2.7, 1.0, 1.1, and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The B, V, and R brightness levels in 2018 were 1.3, 1.0, and 1.3 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The U and I brightness levels in 2019 were 0.1 mag arcsec^{-2} brighter than the darkest ground-based measurements, whereas the B and V brightness levels were 0.8 and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The lower sky brightness levels, stable photometry, and lower atmospheric absorption make stratospheric observations from a balloon-borne platform a unique tool for astronomy. We plan to continue this work in a future mid-latitude long duration balloon flight with SuperBIT.

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

Global solar photospheric magnetic maps play a critical role in solar and heliospheric physics research. Routine magnetograph measurements of the field occur only along the Sun-Earth line, leaving the far-side of the Sun unobserved. Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models attempt to mitigate this by modeling the surface evolution of the field. While such models have long been established in the community (with several releasing public full-Sun maps), none are open source. The Open Source Flux Transport (OFT) model seeks to fill this gap by providing an open and user-extensible SFT model that also builds on the knowledge of previous models with updated numerical and data acquisition/assimilation methods along with additional user-defined features. In this first of a series of papers on OFT, we introduce its computational core: the High-performance Flux Transport (HipFT) code (github.com/predsci/hipft). HipFT implements advection, diffusion, and data assimilation in a modular design that supports a variety of flow models and options. It can compute multiple realizations in a single run across model parameters to create ensembles of maps for uncertainty quantification and is high-performance through the use of multi-CPU and multi-GPU parallelism. HipFT is designed to enable users to easily write extensions, enhancing its flexibility and adaptability. We describe HipFT's model features, validations of its numerical methods, performance of its parallel and GPU-accelerated code implementation, analysis/post-processing options, and example use cases.

We investigate the relationship between solar coronal holes and open-field regions using three-dimensional radiative magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations combined with remote-sensing observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Our numerical simulations reveal that magnetically open regions in the corona can exhibit brightness comparable to quiet regions, challenging the conventional view that open-field regions are inherently dark coronal holes. We find that the coronal brightness is primarily determined by the total energy input from photospheric magnetic activities, such as the small-scale dynamo, rather than differences in dissipative processes within the corona. Using synthesized EUV intensity maps, we show that brightness thresholds commonly used to identify coronal holes may overlook open-field regions, especially at lower spatial resolutions. Observational analysis utilizing SDO/HMI and AIA synoptic maps supports our simulation results, demonstrating that magnetic field extrapolation techniques, such as the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model, are sensitive to the chosen parameters, including the source surface height. We suggest that discrepancies in estimates of open magnetic flux (the ``open flux problem'') arise both from the modeling assumptions in coronal magnetic field extrapolation and systematic biases in solar surface magnetic field observations. Our findings indicate the need for reconsidering criteria used to identify coronal holes as indicators of open-field regions to better characterize the solar open magnetic flux.

The recently-discovered Eos molecular cloud, is a CO-dark, low-density cloud located at a distance of approximately 94 pc from the Sun which does not appear to have formed stars at any point in its history. In this paper we investigate the magnetic fields in the Eos cloud, near the interface between the atomic Cold Neutral Medium (CNM) and molecular gas, using dust emission and extinction polarimetry. A Histogram of Relative Orientation analysis shows that the magnetic field is preferentially parallel to the density structure of the cloud, while a Davis-Chandrasekhar-Fermi analysis finds magnetic field strengths of 8pm4 muG across the Eos cloud and 12pm4 muG in the somewhat denser MBM 40 sub-region. These results are consistent with a previous estimate of magnetic field strength in the Local Bubble and suggest that the fields in the Eos cloud are dynamically important compared to both gravity and turbulence. Our findings are fully consistent with the expected behavior of magnetized, non-self-gravitating gas near the CNM/molecular cloud boundary.

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

Accurately describing the distribution of CO_2 in the atmosphere with atmospheric tracer transport models is essential for greenhouse gas monitoring and verification support systems to aid implementation of international climate agreements. Large deep neural networks are poised to revolutionize weather prediction, which requires 3D modeling of the atmosphere. While similar in this regard, atmospheric transport modeling is subject to new challenges. Both, stable predictions for longer time horizons and mass conservation throughout need to be achieved, while IO plays a larger role compared to computational costs. In this study we explore four different deep neural networks (UNet, GraphCast, Spherical Fourier Neural Operator and SwinTransformer) which have proven as state-of-the-art in weather prediction to assess their usefulness for atmospheric tracer transport modeling. For this, we assemble the CarbonBench dataset, a systematic benchmark tailored for machine learning emulators of Eulerian atmospheric transport. Through architectural adjustments, we decouple the performance of our emulators from the distribution shift caused by a steady rise in atmospheric CO_2. More specifically, we center CO_2 input fields to zero mean and then use an explicit flux scheme and a mass fixer to assure mass balance. This design enables stable and mass conserving transport for over 6 months with all four neural network architectures. In our study, the SwinTransformer displays particularly strong emulation skill (90-day R^2 > 0.99), with physically plausible emulation even for forward runs of multiple years. This work paves the way forward towards high resolution forward and inverse modeling of inert trace gases with neural networks.

Recent JWST observations with NIRCam and MIRI of the ultra-short-period super-Earth 55 Cancri e indicate a possible volatile atmosphere surrounding the planet. Previous analysis of the NIRCam spectra suggested potential absorption features from CO2 or CO and significant sub-weekly variability. The MIRI low-resolution spectrum does not contain substantial features but was found to be consistent with effective heat redistribution models. In this work, we computed a grid of over 25000 self-consistent 1D forward models incorporating H-N-O-C-S-P-Si-Ti equilibrium chemistry and assessed plausible atmospheric compositions based on the current JWST data. Despite exhaustive analysis, the composition and properties of the atmosphere remain elusive. While our results statistically favour a global, hydrogen-free, nitrogen-dominated atmosphere enriched in PO and CO2, various alternative compositions, including H2O-,CO-, PH3-, or Si-bearing remain viable explanations. Unconstrained heat redistribution efficiency and absolute NIRCam flux are among the largest sources of uncertainty in our analysis. We also find that the heat redistribution factor and surface pressure are highly degenerate with atmospheric composition, and that these parameters cannot be independently constrained using current JWST observations. Furthermore, we show that the observed variability may arise from dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and an underlying magma ocean, driving rapid shifts in atmospheric chemistry and thermal emission. Our results highlight the importance of using self-consistent forward models when analysing novel JWST spectra with limited signal-to-noise ratios -- such as those of 55 Cancri e -- as it allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of potential atmospheric scenarios while also being less sensitive to subtle spectral differences than retrievals...

We present 850 {\mu}m thermal dust polarization observations with a resolution of 14.4"(~ 0.13 pc) towards an infrared dark cloud G16.96+0.27 using JCMT/POL-2. The average magnetic field orientation, which roughly agrees with the larger-scale magnetic field orientation traced by the Planck 353 GHz data, is approximately perpendicular to the filament structure. The estimated plane-of-sky magnetic field strength is ~ 96 {\mu}G and ~ 60 {\mu}G using two variants of the Davis-Chandrasekhar-Fermi methods. We calculate the virial and magnetic critical parameters to evaluate the relative importance of gravity, the magnetic field, and turbulence. The magnetic field and turbulence are both weaker than gravity, but magnetic fields and turbulence together are equal to gravity, suggesting that G16.96+0.27 is in a quasi-equilibrium state. The cloud-magnetic-field alignment is found to have a trend moving away from perpendicularity in the dense regions, which may serve as a tracer of potential fragmentation in such quiescent filaments.

The Earth's atmosphere is an aerosol, it contains suspended particles. When air flows over an obstacle such as an aircraft wing or tree branch, these particles may not follow the same paths as the air flowing around the obstacle. Instead the particles in the air may deviate from the path of the air and so collide with the surface of the obstacle. It is known that particle inertia can drive this deposition, and that there is a critical value of this inertia, below which no point particles deposit. Particle inertia is measured by the Stokes number, St. We show that near the critical value of the Stokes number, St_c, the amount of deposition has the unusual scaling law of exp(-1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}). The scaling is controlled by the stagnation point of the flow. This scaling is determined by the time for the particle to reach the surface of the cylinder varying as 1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}, together with the distance away from the stagnation point (perpendicular to the flow direction) increasing exponentially with time. The scaling law applies to inviscid flow, a model for flow at high Reynolds numbers. The unusual scaling means that the amount of particles deposited increases only very slowly above the critical Stokes number. This has consequences for applications ranging from rime formation and fog harvesting to pollination.

Physical simulations produce excellent predictions of weather effects. Neural radiance fields produce SOTA scene models. We describe a novel NeRF-editing procedure that can fuse physical simulations with NeRF models of scenes, producing realistic movies of physical phenomena in those scenes. Our application -- Climate NeRF -- allows people to visualize what climate change outcomes will do to them. ClimateNeRF allows us to render realistic weather effects, including smog, snow, and flood. Results can be controlled with physically meaningful variables like water level. Qualitative and quantitative studies show that our simulated results are significantly more realistic than those from SOTA 2D image editing and SOTA 3D NeRF stylization.

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms, considering a solar wind source surface of R_{rm SS}=2.5R_odot, aiming to predict the solar wind speed at the Lagrange 1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms at R_{rm SS}, which are 7, 6, 5, and 4 days before the target epoch. Reduced magnetograms are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetograms at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the continuous test dataset with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.52 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the solar wind, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

Unprecedented volumes of Earth observation data are continually collected around the world, but high-quality labels remain scarce given the effort required to make physical measurements and observations. This has led to considerable investment in bespoke modeling efforts translating sparse labels into maps. Here we introduce AlphaEarth Foundations, an embedding field model yielding a highly general, geospatial representation that assimilates spatial, temporal, and measurement contexts across multiple sources, enabling accurate and efficient production of maps and monitoring systems from local to global scales. The embeddings generated by AlphaEarth Foundations are the only to consistently outperform all previous featurization approaches tested on a diverse set of mapping evaluations without re-training. We will release a dataset of global, annual, analysis-ready embedding field layers from 2017 through 2024.

The Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, is maintained at mega-Kelvin temperatures and fills the heliosphere with a supersonic outflowing wind. The dissipation of magnetic waves and direct electric currents are likely to be the most significant processes for heating the corona, but a lively debate exists on their relative roles. Here, we suggest that the two are often intrinsically linked, since magnetic waves may trigger current dissipation, and impulsive reconnection can launch magnetic waves. We present a study of the first of these processes by using a 2D physics-based numerical simulation using the Adaptive Mesh Refined (AMR) Versatile Advection Code (VAC). Magnetic waves such as fast magnetoacoustic waves are often observed to propagate in the large-scale corona and interact with local magnetic structures. The present numerical simulations show how the propagation of magnetic disturbances towards a null point or separator can lead to the accumulation of the electric currents. Lorentz forces can laterally push and vertically stretch the magnetic fields, forming a current sheet with a strong magnetic-field gradient. The magnetic field lines then break and reconnect, and so contribute towards coronal heating. Numerical results are presented that support these ideas and support the concept of a symbiosis between waves and reconnection in heating the solar corona.

African agriculture is undergoing rapid transformation. Annual maps of crop fields are key to understanding the nature of this transformation, but such maps are currently lacking and must be developed using advanced machine learning models trained on high resolution remote sensing imagery. To enable the development of such models, we delineated field boundaries in 33,746 Planet images captured between 2017 and 2023 across the continent using a custom labeling platform with built-in procedures for assessing and mitigating label error. We collected 42,403 labels, including 7,204 labels arising from tasks dedicated to assessing label quality (Class 1 labels), 32,167 from sites mapped once by a single labeller (Class 2) and 3,032 labels from sites where 3 or more labellers were tasked to map the same location (Class 4). Class 1 labels were used to calculate labeller-specific quality scores, while Class 1 and 4 sites mapped by at least 3 labellers were used to further evaluate label uncertainty using a Bayesian risk metric. Quality metrics showed that label quality was moderately high (0.75) for measures of total field extent, but low regarding the number of individual fields delineated (0.33), and the position of field edges (0.05). These values are expected when delineating small-scale fields in 3-5 m resolution imagery, which can be too coarse to reliably distinguish smaller fields, particularly in dense croplands, and therefore requires substantial labeller judgement. Nevertheless, previous work shows that such labels can train effective field mapping models. Furthermore, this large, probabilistic sample on its own provides valuable insight into regional agricultural characteristics, highlighting variations in the median field size and density. The imagery and vectorized labels along with quality information is available for download from two public repositories.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

Elemental abundances in the solar corona differ from those in the photosphere, with low first ionization potential (FIP) elements being enhanced, a phenomenon known as the FIP effect. This enhancement is attributed to ponderomotive forces linked to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves, particularly incompressible transverse waves. Our study investigates the relationship between coronal abundance fractionation and chromospheric transverse MHD waves by examining the spatial correlation between FIP fractionation and these waves and by analyzing their properties to test the ponderomotive force model. We used H alpha data from the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph at the Goode Solar Telescope to detect chromospheric transverse MHD waves and Si{X} (low FIP) and S{X} (high FIP) spectra from Hinode EUV Imaging Spectrometer to determine relative abundances in an active region. Extrapolated linear force free magnetic fields from Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager magnetograms further linked the observed chromospheric waves with coronal composition. Approximately 400 wave packets were identified and characterized by their period, velocity amplitude, propagation speed, and direction. These incompressible or weakly compressible waves were mainly observed near loop footpoints in the sunspot penumbra and superpenumbral fibrils. Regions of high FIP fractionation coincided with closed magnetic fields where these waves were present, and low-frequency, downward-propagating waves comprised about 43/% of the total. Our results demonstrate a strong correlation between coronal abundance fractionation and chromospheric transverse MHD waves, supporting the view that the FIP effect is driven by the ponderomotive force from these waves.

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

Deep learning foundation models are revolutionizing many facets of science by leveraging vast amounts of data to learn general-purpose representations that can be adapted to tackle diverse downstream tasks. Foundation models hold the promise to also transform our ability to model our planet and its subsystems by exploiting the vast expanse of Earth system data. Here we introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model of the atmosphere trained on over a million hours of diverse weather and climate data. Aurora leverages the strengths of the foundation modelling approach to produce operational forecasts for a wide variety of atmospheric prediction problems, including those with limited training data, heterogeneous variables, and extreme events. In under a minute, Aurora produces 5-day global air pollution predictions and 10-day high-resolution weather forecasts that outperform state-of-the-art classical simulation tools and the best specialized deep learning models. Taken together, these results indicate that foundation models can transform environmental forecasting.

Reliably reconstructing physical fields from sparse sensor data is a challenge that frequently arises in many scientific domains. In practice, the process generating the data often is not understood to sufficient accuracy. Therefore, there is a growing interest in using the deep neural network route to address the problem. This work presents a novel approach that learns a continuous representation of the physical field using implicit neural representations (INRs). Specifically, after factorizing spatiotemporal variability into spatial and temporal components using the separation of variables technique, the method learns relevant basis functions from sparsely sampled irregular data points to develop a continuous representation of the data. In experimental evaluations, the proposed model outperforms recent INR methods, offering superior reconstruction quality on simulation data from a state-of-the-art climate model and a second dataset that comprises ultra-high resolution satellite-based sea surface temperature fields.