---
title: Stock Prediction Explanation
emoji: 💬
colorFrom: yellow
colorTo: purple
sdk: gradio
sdk_version: 5.42.0
app_file: app.py
pinned: false
hf_oauth: true
hf_oauth_scopes:
- inference-api
license: apache-2.0
short_description: AI that predicts stock moves from news and explains why
---

# Explainable Stock Prediction with GRPO + RAG

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## About this Space  
This demo showcases a **financial NLP model** that predicts stock market reactions to news events while also providing a **natural language explanation**.  

Unlike standard classifiers (which only output UP/DOWN/NEUTRAL), this model combines:  
- **GRPO (Group Relative Policy Optimization)** → reinforcement learning to refine predictions through self-reflection.  
- **RAG (Retrieval-Augmented Generation)** → retrieving past financial events to ground explanations in historical context.  

The result: **predictions that are both accurate and interpretable**.

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## How it works  
1. **Input** → A financial news headline or event description.  
2. **GRPO loop** → The model generates a prediction and, if wrong, reflect to improve future reasoning.  
3. **RAG retrieval** → Relevant historical events are retrieved to enrich the explanation.  
4. **Output** →  
   - Chosen Stock  
   - Price Prediction (UP/DOWN or percentage change)  
   - Explanation (short and clear, grounded in past events)

---