<p>In 2020, Italy's debt-to-GDP ballooned<sup><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-debt-idUSKBN29L0PP" rel="nofollow noreferrer">1</a></sup> to 158.5%, which is almost a 20% increase from 2019. I wonder how much of that is just COVID and how much regular increase (government debt here was increasing years before) and how much it is due to fighting COVID. Is there any way to know how much of this increase is just due to COVID?</p>
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<p><sub><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-debt-idUSKBN29L0PP" rel="nofollow noreferrer">1</a> Giuseppe Fonte, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-debt-idUSKBN29L0PP" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Italy public debt to hit new post-war record in 2021 at 158.5% of GDP</a>, Reuters, January 16, 2021.</sub></p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-02-08T23:36:51.173Z
There’s no good way of determining what would happen in the absence of COVID, so I doubt that any answer could be authoritative.
Brian Romanchuk
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2021-02-08T23:57:01.280Z
@BrianRomanchuk there are several identification strategies that could actually do that reasonably well - but I doubt anyone could have any time to actually research the issue given that this is current event
1muflon1
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2021-02-08T23:59:48.377Z
@LorenzoPozzi are you actually looking for estimates of this or just ways how that could be done in principle?
1muflon1
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2021-02-11T10:14:33.447Z
I found some data but only at world-level here https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/what-pandemic-means-government-debt-five-charts but if the stimulus was about 10% of GDP as it was on average elsewhere... you can do some back of the napkin calculation for an estimate.
fantastic peace and prosperity
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2021-02-11T10:54:41.197Z
@1muflon1 I want to know what happened so I am looking for some number
Lorenzo Pozzi
<government-debt><covid-19-crisis><italy>
How much of new debt in Italy is due to COVID?
Lorenzo Pozzi
# How much of new debt in Italy is due to COVID?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2021-02-08)

In 2020, Italy's debt-to-GDP ballooned[1](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-debt-idUSKBN29L0PP) to 158.5%, which is almost a 20% increase from 2019. I wonder how much of that is just COVID and how much regular increase (government debt here was increasing years before) and how much it is due to fighting COVID. Is there any way to know how much of this increase is just due to COVID?

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[1](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-debt-idUSKBN29L0PP) Giuseppe Fonte, [Italy public debt to hit new post-war record in 2021 at 158.5% of GDP](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-budget-debt-idUSKBN29L0PP), Reuters, January 16, 2021.

**Tags:** government-debt, covid-19-crisis, italy

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: There’s no good way of determining what would happen in the absence of COVID, so I doubt that any answer could be authoritative.  
> **username_2**: @BrianRomanchuk there are several identification strategies that could actually do that reasonably well - but I doubt anyone could have any time to actually research the issue given that this is current event  
> **username_2**: @LorenzoPozzi are you actually looking for estimates of this or just ways how that could be done in principle?  
> **username_3**: I found some data but only at world-level here https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/what-pandemic-means-government-debt-five-charts but if the stimulus was about 10% of GDP as it was on average elsewhere... you can do some back of the napkin calculation for an estimate.  
> **username_0**: @username_2 I want to know what happened so I am looking for some number  

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## 0 answers

