<p>I don't know that anyone's used a Lotka Volterra framework: it's not an obvious choice, but it might make for a novel(ty) article. Nevertheless, yes, it's a well-established observation that historically, surges in oil prices have been part of triggering global economic downturns.</p>

<p>But that's just oil prices. So it's only during the oil age, which is now ending.</p>

<p>Historically, for the last couple of centuries, most of our energy has been implicitly and explicitly subsidised: implicitly by the huge externalities of fossil fuel combustion. The direct consequence of that is that fuel expenditure play an inefficiently large role in the global economy. And that means that rapid changes in global fuel prices have had a very destabilising effect on the global economy.</p>

<p>But there are two major changes coming:</p>

<ol>
<li><p>It's not hard to see the transition to clean energy being one in which energy's role in the global economy diminishes, as externalities get priced in, and as energy efficiency consequently becomes much more cost-competitive. </p></li>
<li><p>Furthermore, a very large proportion of clean energy (hydro, wind, PV) has very low operating costs; whereas dirty energy has much much higher operating costs.</p></li>
</ol>

<p>So for those two reasons, when we move from dirty energy to clean energy, the global economy will become much less coupled to changes in short-run marginal costs of energy. </p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-06-23T10:22:34.987Z
Very interesting - you got any good writes or references that talk about this more in depth?
Thorst
CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-06-23T11:08:06.877Z
@Lasse well, there's [this little book](http://global.oup.com/ukhe/product/global-energy-9780198719533?cc=gb&lang=en&) that me and a few colleagues put together, but I'll try to find some online articles to link to later, too.
410 gone
CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-06-23T13:18:58.740Z
Clean energy is nonsense http://i.imgur.com/0uoDUdV.jpg
D J Sims
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2016-06-24T05:58:49.707Z
@EnergyNumbers - thanks, will have a look at it !
Thorst
CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-08-11T17:29:38.940Z
Renewables are far more intermittent than oil so your argument is based on the exact opposite of reality.
D J Sims
CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-06-23T10:07:42.740Z
2016-06-23T11:17:54.733Z
2016-06-23T11:17:54.733Z
410 gone
<p>Has anyone considered that recessions are just lotka volterra cycles due to fuel resource depletion? Or has this been completely ignored by all economists for hundreds of years?</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-06-23T06:21:04.890Z
Seeing that the Lotka-Volterra model is not yet a hundred years old and the combustion engine is a little over a hundred years old I would not be surprised if all economists before 1900 ignored this. But it is an interesting idea, do publish!
Giskard
CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-06-23T13:20:21.083Z
The lv curve has existed in some form forever http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html?m=1
D J Sims
CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-06-23T21:17:25.727Z
But that is not what your highly specific question is about, is it...?
Giskard
<macroeconomics>
Has absolutely no economist ever considered that real energy prices cause recessions?
D J Sims
# Has absolutely no economist ever considered that real energy prices cause recessions?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2016-06-23)

Has anyone considered that recessions are just lotka volterra cycles due to fuel resource depletion? Or has this been completely ignored by all economists for hundreds of years?

**Tags:** macroeconomics

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Seeing that the Lotka-Volterra model is not yet a hundred years old and the combustion engine is a little over a hundred years old I would not be surprised if all economists before 1900 ignored this. But it is an interesting idea, do publish!  
> **username_0**: The lv curve has existed in some form forever http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html?m=1  
> **username_1**: But that is not what your highly specific question is about, is it...?  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2016-06-23. Score: 6

I don't know that anyone's used a Lotka Volterra framework: it's not an obvious choice, but it might make for a novel(ty) article. Nevertheless, yes, it's a well-established observation that historically, surges in oil prices have been part of triggering global economic downturns.

But that's just oil prices. So it's only during the oil age, which is now ending.

Historically, for the last couple of centuries, most of our energy has been implicitly and explicitly subsidised: implicitly by the huge externalities of fossil fuel combustion. The direct consequence of that is that fuel expenditure play an inefficiently large role in the global economy. And that means that rapid changes in global fuel prices have had a very destabilising effect on the global economy.

But there are two major changes coming:

1. It's not hard to see the transition to clean energy being one in which energy's role in the global economy diminishes, as externalities get priced in, and as energy efficiency consequently becomes much more cost-competitive.
2. Furthermore, a very large proportion of clean energy (hydro, wind, PV) has very low operating costs; whereas dirty energy has much much higher operating costs.

So for those two reasons, when we move from dirty energy to clean energy, the global economy will become much less coupled to changes in short-run marginal costs of energy.

> **Comments:**
> **username_3**: Very interesting - you got any good writes or references that talk about this more in depth?  
> **username_2**: @Lasse well, there's [this little book](http://global.oup.com/ukhe/product/global-energy-9780198719533?cc=gb&lang=en&) that me and a few colleagues put together, but I'll try to find some online articles to link to later, too.  
> **username_0**: Clean energy is nonsense http://i.imgur.com/0uoDUdV.jpg  
> **username_3**: @EnergyNumbers - thanks, will have a look at it !  
> **username_0**: Renewables are far more intermittent than oil so your argument is based on the exact opposite of reality.  

---

