<p>One doesn't have to look very hard to find suggestions that Trump's economic policies are damaging to the US economy. <a href="https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Example</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20181221074739/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/01/27/economic-self-destruction-trump-style/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">example</a>, <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/markets/opinion-roubini-president-trump-is-flirting-with-mutually-assured-economic-destruction/ar-BBRxptN" rel="nofollow noreferrer">example</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/opinion/sunday/trump-trade-steel-aluminum-tarriffs.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">example</a>. In fact I barely recall reading any articles in the mainstream media that said that Trump's policies are beneficial.</p>

<p>However all indications are (<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/before-the-bell-the-economy-is-booming-the-labor-market-is-strong-earnings-beat-expectations-whats-next/ar-AAAVDPA" rel="nofollow noreferrer">example from just earlier this month</a>) that the US economy is extremely healthy.</p>

<p>Why is there a disconnect? Are the economics theories wrong? Is this a case of the economy being too complicated to model, and the results in this case turned out to be incorrect? Are the economists who made those predictions politically biased? Are the indicators imperfect and conceal hidden weakness? I notice that economists also predicted that Erdogan's policies will be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/16/turkeys-leader-is-helping-to-crash-its-currency/?utm_term=.c408f23f626a" rel="nofollow noreferrer">destructive for the Turkish economy</a>, and that panned out; I'm wondering why the predictions evidently aren't working for the US economy. </p>

<p>I'm not an economist and know little about the topic, so would prefer an elementary explanation. </p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-05-06T04:46:19.260Z
Cutting taxes almost always boosts consumption (pretty fast). Can you detail here what those "example, example" say? Not all "bad" policies have immediate effect... like piling up debt.
fantastic peace and prosperity
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2019-05-06T05:22:15.250Z
Frankly people predicted an investment boom thanks to Trump's tax cuts, but apparently his trade wars nixed that https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-jobs-report-shows-there-is-still-no-trump-boom-2019-05-03?mod=opinion
fantastic peace and prosperity
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-05-06T05:53:04.290Z
Also, some of those predictions were predicated on things that didn't happen. The Moody's paper assumed that all or at least half the illegal immigrants are evicted (and had two scenarios depending on this and other factors). Predicting recessions that never happened has become a bit of the norm for analysts, starting with Brexit... https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/27490/predicted-recessions-that-never-happened/
fantastic peace and prosperity
CC BY-SA 4.0
2019-11-18T05:33:49.017Z
Your question assumes the economy is healthy. Strong signals that this isn't the case. For example, the fed is cutting rates and growth has basically stalled in the fourth quarter. Also yield curve isn't looking great. Your question is really sort of ridiculous. And, supposing the economy is healthy . (it isn't) -- the obvious answer is because we are coming off almost a decade of easy money policy. Effects of monetary policy are notoriously lagged. Trump is a retard.
123
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2019-11-18T06:01:32.250Z
@123 If you can write an answer arguing that the economy is not doing well, I'd be interested (with the caveat that this question was asked about six months ago).
Allure
CC BY-SA 4.0
2022-09-30T23:13:38.553Z
@user253751 is the value of the S&P a measure of the health of the US economy?
Allure
<macroeconomics>
If Trump's economic policies are destructive, why is the US economy so healthy?
Allure
# If Trump's economic policies are destructive, why is the US economy so healthy?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2019-05-06)

One doesn't have to look very hard to find suggestions that Trump's economic policies are damaging to the US economy. [Example](https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf), [example](https://web.archive.org/web/20181221074739/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/01/27/economic-self-destruction-trump-style/), [example](https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/markets/opinion-roubini-president-trump-is-flirting-with-mutually-assured-economic-destruction/ar-BBRxptN), [example](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/opinion/sunday/trump-trade-steel-aluminum-tarriffs.html). In fact I barely recall reading any articles in the mainstream media that said that Trump's policies are beneficial.

However all indications are ([example from just earlier this month](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/before-the-bell-the-economy-is-booming-the-labor-market-is-strong-earnings-beat-expectations-whats-next/ar-AAAVDPA)) that the US economy is extremely healthy.

Why is there a disconnect? Are the economics theories wrong? Is this a case of the economy being too complicated to model, and the results in this case turned out to be incorrect? Are the economists who made those predictions politically biased? Are the indicators imperfect and conceal hidden weakness? I notice that economists also predicted that Erdogan's policies will be [destructive for the Turkish economy](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/16/turkeys-leader-is-helping-to-crash-its-currency/?utm_term=.c408f23f626a), and that panned out; I'm wondering why the predictions evidently aren't working for the US economy.

I'm not an economist and know little about the topic, so would prefer an elementary explanation.

**Tags:** macroeconomics

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Cutting taxes almost always boosts consumption (pretty fast). Can you detail here what those "example, example" say? Not all "bad" policies have immediate effect... like piling up debt.  
> **username_1**: Frankly people predicted an investment boom thanks to Trump's tax cuts, but apparently his trade wars nixed that https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-jobs-report-shows-there-is-still-no-trump-boom-2019-05-03?mod=opinion  
> **username_1**: Also, some of those predictions were predicated on things that didn't happen. The Moody's paper assumed that all or at least half the illegal immigrants are evicted (and had two scenarios depending on this and other factors). Predicting recessions that never happened has become a bit of the norm for analysts, starting with Brexit... https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/27490/predicted-recessions-that-never-happened/  
> **username_2**: Your question assumes the economy is healthy. Strong signals that this isn't the case. For example, the fed is cutting rates and growth has basically stalled in the fourth quarter. Also yield curve isn't looking great. Your question is really sort of ridiculous. And, supposing the economy is healthy . (it isn't) -- the obvious answer is because we are coming off almost a decade of easy money policy. Effects of monetary policy are notoriously lagged. Trump is a retard.  
> **username_0**: @username_2 If you can write an answer arguing that the economy is not doing well, I'd be interested (with the caveat that this question was asked about six months ago).  
> **username_0**: @user253751 is the value of the S&P a measure of the health of the US economy?  

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## 0 answers

