<p>This is a general problem with anyone who comes face to face with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_statistics" rel="nofollow noreferrer">official statistics</a> for the first time.</p>
<p>Official statistics of a particular country comes from an institution of that country. However, there is something called the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_of_National_Accounts" rel="nofollow noreferrer">System of National Accounts</a> that contains guidelines on pretty much every aspect of national accounts data. This is maintained by UN, IMF and World Bank, among others. Thanks to this you will find data definitions and compilation methods across countries to be largely consistent.</p>
<p>Rule 1: So if you have to use cross country data make sure that you select comparable datasets, i.e. choosing same variables.</p>
<p>Rule 2: Unless you are doing a deep data data analysis, it is okay to chose the variable which is seems most common. What is most common? The variable that you see easily available for any country.</p>
<p>Rule 3: Just keep in mind the difference between real and nominal variables. In most scenarios, you'd need real variables, especially, if you are doing cross-country comparison.</p>
<p>If you still get confused about what to use, the best way is to just read about the variable on wiki and you'll get some sense. Going into more details than what is easily available on wiki is only going to confuse you further as official statistics get fairly complex as you start peeling the layers.</p>
<p>Finally I'd recommend to give CEIC database a try, if you have access to it (through your institution). It is one of the best place today to find any data related to official statistics (I have seen even the officials from IMF using it).</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-12T08:07:37.507Z
Thank you, Dayne. 
I need to use a resource my students have access to from home, so unfortunately CEIC is not an option.
Prof. Soage
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-10T19:24:45.567Z
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD. This is annual data from the FRED database on the US national deficit. You can put this in terms of deficit as a percent of  Real GDP (or nominal GDP if you prefer) if you download the equivalent data base from FRED.https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPCA. Orhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPA
EB3112
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-11T13:49:57.153Z
2020-10-11T13:49:57.153Z
Dayne
<p>I teach Politics and I've been asked to prepare a course which includes a lot of financial data because it covers recent international financial crises.</p>
<p>I've been trying to use IMF statistics, but I find them rather confusing. For instance, if I want to know a country's deficit, I find three different options:</p>
<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/JUNCi.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/JUNCi.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p>And when I look up GDP, I have a bewildering number of options to choose from (I've highlighted the one that makes more sense to me):</p>
<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/O2mDM.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/O2mDM.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p>Is there any rule-of-thumb method for a lay person to use these statistics? Alternatively, is there any other source in which the data is comprehensive but simplified?</p>
<p>Thank you so much in advance!</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-11T12:30:33.937Z
For the deficit question, “central government” is the equivalent of the U.S. Federal Government, while “general government” includes sub-sovereigns as well. I assume that the “budgetary“ series is what was budgeted, the other is what actually happened. The IMF compiles data from national sources, and the national governments generally have guides on how their statistics are calculated.
Brian Romanchuk
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-11T12:31:17.453Z
Can you clarify what exactly is the purpose you want to use those data? The thing is that there are always for example multiple deficits in a country. Do you care about whole country's deficit? Federal government deficit? State/municipality deficit (this is still country's deficit)?  For the GDP I would recommend using the real GDP with expenditure approach - income approach is not widely used but even there answer will depend on exactly what you want to do. In addition please provide link to the data some information cannot be gauged just from name of series
1muflon1
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-11T12:34:28.423Z
Also: I can’t tell where these data come from. The IMF World Economic Outlook has a relatively standardized data set (with less series). There is a report and a statistical database, and there might be a guide to the data.
Brian Romanchuk
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-11T12:55:36.317Z
If you only need yearly data, the World Bank data (WDI) is much easier to navigate. The IMF advantage is in higher frequency, i.e. quarterly data.
BB King
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-12T07:54:26.060Z
@BrianRomanchuk I am using the IMF's International Financial Statistics. As far as I can tell, the World Economic Outlook provides yearly reports, not a searchable database.
Prof. Soage
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-12T07:55:21.033Z
@BBKing World Bank data doesn't go back far enough. I need historic data, at least since the 1990s.
Prof. Soage
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-12T07:57:45.903Z
@1muflon1 My purpose is to ascertain the financial reasons behind economic crises, by looking at exchange rate, current account data, budget deficit, foreign reserves, and foreign debt.
Prof. Soage
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-12T10:29:34.480Z
@Prof.Soage that is still very vague. If you look at the literature on business cycles and financial propagation/origins of the shocks they use so many different methods and approaches even a book would not be enough to describe them. I would recommend maybe deciding first more specifically what you want to do by doing literature review on the topic (which always the best starting point for any research) because vague questions rarely attract good answers
1muflon1
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-12T10:58:13.040Z
@1muflon1 Thank you for the advice. 
I'd love to have the time to do that, but I don't. And this is literally for one activity in one session so that my students gain a certain familiarity with the topic and lose their fear of figures. If they're interested, they may take a more specialised course in the future.
As I mentioned above, my field is Politics, not Economics, and I am following the guidelines I was given by an Economics professor. Would you advice different indicators and/or sources of (open source) data to "predict" financial crises?
Prof. Soage
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-12T11:33:46.747Z
@Prof.Soage I appreciate that this is very precarious position - imposed on you by your professor- but then this is catch 22. Literature on forecasting (calling) recessions uses: inversion of yield curves, consumer confidence, consumer or investment spending, lags of GDP, employment, private debt (not just public), measures of output slack etc. This is top of the iceberg and they are all public. Also most of them are not used at the same time. This is probably not answer you wanted as this makes your task hard as opposed to situation where there would be single indicator but it is how it is
1muflon1
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-12T12:19:03.117Z
@1muflon1 Actually, I am the professor (I insist, of Politics, not Economics). I just want to give my students a taste of other subjects. And I'm not using 1 indicator, but 7 (including some non-financial ones: political stability and the contagion effect). In our conversation I listed the other 5 (see above). In addition, and as I've already mentioned, I asked an expert who has worked for the IMF and seems to think differently.
Prof. Soage
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-10-12T13:21:58.327Z
@Prof.Soage the WEO has a statistical database https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLs/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending
Brian Romanchuk
<statistics><international-economics>
Understanding IMF statistics
Prof. Soage
# Understanding IMF statistics

(Asked by: username_0 on 2020-10-11)

I teach Politics and I've been asked to prepare a course which includes a lot of financial data because it covers recent international financial crises.

I've been trying to use IMF statistics, but I find them rather confusing. For instance, if I want to know a country's deficit, I find three different options:

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/JUNCi.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/JUNCi.png)

And when I look up GDP, I have a bewildering number of options to choose from (I've highlighted the one that makes more sense to me):

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/O2mDM.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/O2mDM.png)

Is there any rule-of-thumb method for a lay person to use these statistics? Alternatively, is there any other source in which the data is comprehensive but simplified?

Thank you so much in advance!

**Tags:** statistics, international-economics

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: For the deficit question, “central government” is the equivalent of the U.S. Federal Government, while “general government” includes sub-sovereigns as well. I assume that the “budgetary“ series is what was budgeted, the other is what actually happened. The IMF compiles data from national sources, and the national governments generally have guides on how their statistics are calculated.  
> **username_2**: Can you clarify what exactly is the purpose you want to use those data? The thing is that there are always for example multiple deficits in a country. Do you care about whole country's deficit? Federal government deficit? State/municipality deficit (this is still country's deficit)?  For the GDP I would recommend using the real GDP with expenditure approach - income approach is not widely used but even there answer will depend on exactly what you want to do. In addition please provide link to the data some information cannot be gauged just from name of series  
> **username_1**: Also: I can’t tell where these data come from. The IMF World Economic Outlook has a relatively standardized data set (with less series). There is a report and a statistical database, and there might be a guide to the data.  
> **username_3**: If you only need yearly data, the World Bank data (WDI) is much easier to navigate. The IMF advantage is in higher frequency, i.e. quarterly data.  
> **username_0**: @BrianRomanchuk I am using the IMF's International Financial Statistics. As far as I can tell, the World Economic Outlook provides yearly reports, not a searchable database.  
> **username_0**: @BBKing World Bank data doesn't go back far enough. I need historic data, at least since the 1990s.  
> **username_0**: @username_2 My purpose is to ascertain the financial reasons behind economic crises, by looking at exchange rate, current account data, budget deficit, foreign reserves, and foreign debt.  
> **username_2**: @Prof.Soage that is still very vague. If you look at the literature on business cycles and financial propagation/origins of the shocks they use so many different methods and approaches even a book would not be enough to describe them. I would recommend maybe deciding first more specifically what you want to do by doing literature review on the topic (which always the best starting point for any research) because vague questions rarely attract good answers  
> **username_0**: @username_2 Thank you for the advice.  I'd love to have the time to do that, but I don't. And this is literally for one activity in one session so that my students gain a certain familiarity with the topic and lose their fear of figures. If they're interested, they may take a more specialised course in the future. As I mentioned above, my field is Politics, not Economics, and I am following the guidelines I was given by an Economics professor. Would you advice different indicators and/or sources of (open source) data to "predict" financial crises?  
> **username_2**: @Prof.Soage I appreciate that this is very precarious position - imposed on you by your professor- but then this is catch 22. Literature on forecasting (calling) recessions uses: inversion of yield curves, consumer confidence, consumer or investment spending, lags of GDP, employment, private debt (not just public), measures of output slack etc. This is top of the iceberg and they are all public. Also most of them are not used at the same time. This is probably not answer you wanted as this makes your task hard as opposed to situation where there would be single indicator but it is how it is  
> **username_0**: @username_2 Actually, I am the professor (I insist, of Politics, not Economics). I just want to give my students a taste of other subjects. And I'm not using 1 indicator, but 7 (including some non-financial ones: political stability and the contagion effect). In our conversation I listed the other 5 (see above). In addition, and as I've already mentioned, I asked an expert who has worked for the IMF and seems to think differently.  
> **username_1**: @Prof.Soage the WEO has a statistical database https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLs/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_4 on 2020-10-11. Score: 1

This is a general problem with anyone who comes face to face with [official statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_statistics) for the first time.

Official statistics of a particular country comes from an institution of that country. However, there is something called the [System of National Accounts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_of_National_Accounts) that contains guidelines on pretty much every aspect of national accounts data. This is maintained by UN, IMF and World Bank, among others. Thanks to this you will find data definitions and compilation methods across countries to be largely consistent.

Rule 1: So if you have to use cross country data make sure that you select comparable datasets, i.e. choosing same variables.

Rule 2: Unless you are doing a deep data data analysis, it is okay to chose the variable which is seems most common. What is most common? The variable that you see easily available for any country.

Rule 3: Just keep in mind the difference between real and nominal variables. In most scenarios, you'd need real variables, especially, if you are doing cross-country comparison.

If you still get confused about what to use, the best way is to just read about the variable on wiki and you'll get some sense. Going into more details than what is easily available on wiki is only going to confuse you further as official statistics get fairly complex as you start peeling the layers.

Finally I'd recommend to give CEIC database a try, if you have access to it (through your institution). It is one of the best place today to find any data related to official statistics (I have seen even the officials from IMF using it).

> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: Thank you, username_4.  I need to use a resource my students have access to from home, so unfortunately CEIC is not an option.  
> **username_5**: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD. This is annual data from the FRED database on the US national deficit. You can put this in terms of deficit as a percent of  Real GDP (or nominal GDP if you prefer) if you download the equivalent data base from FRED.https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPCA. Orhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPA  

---

