<p>You can find out the average transaction fees gathered per block <a href="https://www.smartbit.com.au/charts/transaction-fees-per-block?from=2011-6-1&amp;to=2016-6-1&amp;day_average=30" rel="nofollow">here</a>. You can see that it's been slowly increasing recently, and there tends to be a block every year or so that skews the average quite a bit. But we can confidently say that currently, the average fees per block is around 0.35 BTC, which has increased from about 0.15 BTC of a year ago. Assuming a linear 0.2 BTC increase in fees per block per year, and a 4 year halving schedule we get these equations:</p>

<pre><code>fees = 0.2 * x + 0.35
reward = 0.5^(x/4) * 12.5 
</code></pre>

<p>Reward is a discrete function, so we can just see what happens at the halving in 2020, 2024 and so on.</p>

<p>2020:</p>

<pre><code>fees = 0.2 * 4 + 0.35 = 1.15
reward = 0.5 * 12.5 = 6.25
</code></pre>

<p>2024:</p>

<pre><code>fees = 0.2 * 8 + 0.35 = 1.95
reward = 0.5^2 * 12.5 = 3.125
</code></pre>

<p>2028:</p>

<pre><code>fees = 0.2 * 12 + 0.35 = 2.75
reward = 0.5^3 * 12.5 = 1.5625
</code></pre>

<p>If it proceeds like this, it looks like there actually won't be a moment when average fees and reward actually equal each other as the reward will halve and will be bypassed by fees at that point suddenly.</p>

<p>A different (linear or non-linear) function for fees will obviously achieve different results as would the block halving time being a bit shorter than 4 years, but this projection does make it seem as though 10-12 years is around when fees and reward will approximately meet.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-06-01T23:00:42.880Z
2016-06-01T23:00:42.880Z
Jimmy Song
<p>A spreadsheet with a base projection and the following editable variables (for a given block height) would be great:</p>

<ol>
<li>BTC transaction volume per block </li>
<li>Number of transaction per block </li>
<li>Average transaction fee</li>
</ol>

<p>Please assume that most BTC transactions will remain on the main chain (and not on a lightning network or something similar).</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-05-19T13:56:51.637Z
Just curious, why do you want to assume that the majority of transaction volume will stay on-chain?  Simplicity?  The way things are looking, off-chain transactions of some kind (lightning, sidechains, etc...) are likely to become an increasing part of the ecosystem, so ignoring them as a factor will likely lead to an inaccurate projection.
Jestin
CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-05-19T14:20:44.720Z
You read my mind Jestin! The prospective impact of off-chain transactions is something I want to study. However in order to analyze the full picture I want to create base projection (without off-chain transactions) to compare against.
opensourceprivacy
CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-05-19T14:27:00.483Z
Ah, so one projection with off-chain transactions, and one without?  I'd love to see the results, but unfortunately, I don't think I'm the person to help you along.  I'm upvoting in hopes of a good answer!
Jestin
CC BY-SA 3.0
2016-05-19T14:32:37.937Z
Thank you. Yes that is exactly what I want to do! I will be happy to post the results if/when I can make some reasonable projections. I was scared that  without wording my question in the way I did I would lack sufficient data to make my projections. For example I think that total bitcoin transaction volume with off-chain transactions will (eventually) be much higher than it would without.
opensourceprivacy
<transaction-fees><mining-reward>
Are there any projections about when transaction fees per block will equal block reward?
opensourceprivacy
# Are there any projections about when transaction fees per block will equal block reward?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2016-05-19)

A spreadsheet with a base projection and the following editable variables (for a given block height) would be great:

1. BTC transaction volume per block
2. Number of transaction per block
3. Average transaction fee

Please assume that most BTC transactions will remain on the main chain (and not on a lightning network or something similar).

**Tags:** transaction-fees, mining-reward

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: Just curious, why do you want to assume that the majority of transaction volume will stay on-chain?  Simplicity?  The way things are looking, off-chain transactions of some kind (lightning, sidechains, etc...) are likely to become an increasing part of the ecosystem, so ignoring them as a factor will likely lead to an inaccurate projection.  
> **username_0**: You read my mind username_1! The prospective impact of off-chain transactions is something I want to study. However in order to analyze the full picture I want to create base projection (without off-chain transactions) to compare against.  
> **username_1**: Ah, so one projection with off-chain transactions, and one without?  I'd love to see the results, but unfortunately, I don't think I'm the person to help you along.  I'm upvoting in hopes of a good answer!  
> **username_0**: Thank you. Yes that is exactly what I want to do! I will be happy to post the results if/when I can make some reasonable projections. I was scared that  without wording my question in the way I did I would lack sufficient data to make my projections. For example I think that total bitcoin transaction volume with off-chain transactions will (eventually) be much higher than it would without.  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2016-06-01. Score: 2

You can find out the average transaction fees gathered per block [here](https://www.smartbit.com.au/charts/transaction-fees-per-block?from=2011-6-1&to=2016-6-1&day_average=30). You can see that it's been slowly increasing recently, and there tends to be a block every year or so that skews the average quite a bit. But we can confidently say that currently, the average fees per block is around 0.35 BTC, which has increased from about 0.15 BTC of a year ago. Assuming a linear 0.2 BTC increase in fees per block per year, and a 4 year halving schedule we get these equations:

```
fees = 0.2 * x + 0.35
reward = 0.5^(x/4) * 12.5 

```

Reward is a discrete function, so we can just see what happens at the halving in 2020, 2024 and so on.

2020:

```
fees = 0.2 * 4 + 0.35 = 1.15
reward = 0.5 * 12.5 = 6.25

```

2024:

```
fees = 0.2 * 8 + 0.35 = 1.95
reward = 0.5^2 * 12.5 = 3.125

```

2028:

```
fees = 0.2 * 12 + 0.35 = 2.75
reward = 0.5^3 * 12.5 = 1.5625

```

If it proceeds like this, it looks like there actually won't be a moment when average fees and reward actually equal each other as the reward will halve and will be bypassed by fees at that point suddenly.

A different (linear or non-linear) function for fees will obviously achieve different results as would the block halving time being a bit shorter than 4 years, but this projection does make it seem as though 10-12 years is around when fees and reward will approximately meet.


---

