Filed Under: Penn State Football Tagged With: dental implants, hot dentist, season prediction
Michael Geldner says
That was quite a preview!
That was quite a comment.
BigAl says
It's really hard to predict what Penn State will do without seeing them play a game. There is simply to much uncertainty with the new coaching staff and the new offensive. It will take at least 3 games to an solid idea of this team's potential. And the games against Akron and Rutgers will have a big impact on just how good the final record will be.
If State loses both of them, a 3 and 9 record is a distinct possibility. If they win both of them, a 9 and 3 record is possible. If they one of them, then a 6 and 6 record is likely.
If they played Akron and Rutgers in November, I have no doubt that State would win both games. But playing both of them in early September, before the inexperienced OL gets its pass protection schemes ironed out (and that's making the generous assumption that they have Division I caliber talent) is a recipe for disaster.
Rutgers will be more a threat than K John believes – Fat Fridge is Rutgers' new offensive coordinator and will pull some surprises from his bag of tricks. And Rutgers' small but quick defense will pressure State's offense. By November, Rutgers' defense will be worn down and Fridge will be out of tricks. But in September, they will be dangerous.
So, if I had to predict the season before seeing State play a single game, I would predict a 6 and 6 record. They beat Akron, Massachusetts, Temple OOC. And, in the B1G, beat Illinois, Northwestern, and upset Indiana. And they'll be upset by Rutgers. The other losses will not be upsets – UCF, Moo U, the A-holes, tOSU, and the Twerps – have equal or better starting talent and more depth (excepting MD.)
Well it seems 8-4 or 7-5 seem to be the consensus picks (along with a few .500 season predictions thrown in for good measure.) So, I'll embark on this fool's errand trying to pick wins and losses for a team that has never played a live down for James Franklin and his staff, who has some significant depth issues across the OL and LB positions and has a crew of talented but unproven WR's.
I'm going to go with an 8-4 season (although 7-5 or 9-3 are possibilities). It's all contingent on avoiding the injury bug at key spots, finding at least 6 or 7 O-linemen who can become semi-capable at their craft during the first third of the season, a bunch of youngsters that can become contributors very early and some blind faith that Franklin and his coaching staff can do some decent game planning/in-game adjustments once the whistle goes off.
On a plus note, I think the secondary is deep and talented, likewise the DL. We are serviceable at LB if there are no injuries to the starters, and I like this "star" position concept they've thrown out there as a replacement for a LB in some situations.
On the offense, Hack is the real deal, if he can keep his uniform clean and stay off the trainer's table we'll be okay. I think the OL will be serviceable by the third or fourth game, but that's a story that will play out before our eyes and we'll know soon enough. Besides we went through this before during BoB's first year I believe and by the later part of the season they were doing just fine. TE's & RB's are probably the best talent/depth we've had at State in quite some time. Also remember that in 2012 after Justin Brown bolted for Oklahoma, we were left with Felder, Kersey, Kenney and some skinny kid from Michigan named Allen Robinson. I think that worked out pretty well.
So off we go to the specifics.
UCF–Win–If Bardarbunga doesn't blow it's top and we get to play the game (or maybe play the game and have to take a ship home) I see PS pulling out a close win. Bortles and Johnson killed us last year from both a talent standpoint and the PS D's inability to tackle or contain. With both players gone, the big issue to me is the new UCF QB (DiNovo) who hasn't taken a snap and can our defense play better than last year. Yes they have just about everyone back on their defense, but we lost last year by three even considering how we played like shit. Close game, but I feel the Lions pull this out on a Ficken FG.
Akron–Win–Yeah there's a Bowden coaching the Zips. But PS sleepwalks (perhaps literally) through the first half, and wakes up in the second half to win comfortably.
Rutgers–Win–Ahh the opening of the B1G season for both schools. The State University of NJ can't wait to get TSFP (That School From Pennsylvania as we are now affectionately referred to by tUNJ) on campus in a prime time match-up just ready to show us a thing or two about being dominated. I don't give a shit if Ralph Friedgen is their OC it's still Rutgers and a win for PS!
UMass–Win–Whipple's kid isn't playing, 'nuff said.
NW–Win–I originally was considering this a loss until Venric Mark announced he was transferring and we found out their leading receiver, Christian Jones is out for the season with a blown knee. Look for the labor unions to buy up all the unsold seats and hand them out for free at the game!
Michigan–Loss–This should be a winnable game, but I found myself heading down the K-John path and thought otherwise. If Robinson doesn't make one of those late catches last year we would have lost. As I understand this year, UM's OL is no better than last year and they still don't have a running game, but they're rolling out sweet new uni's for this matchup (and ND), it's under the lights at the Big House and we all know how the Lions did on the road last year. Wolverines win in 7 OT's.
OSU–Loss (barely)–Honestly, I think this is a grossly over-rated team even if Miller had played this season. Replacing Shazier, Roby, Hyde, "Philly" Brown and now Miller is not going to be easy. And what everyone seems to forget is that they have to replace 4 multi-year OL starters, which apparently is keeping Urbz up at night. They are also moving to a new defensive scheme, which so far has received mixed reviews. This one will be close, closer than most people think, but it will be another wasted white-out.
Maryland–Win–This is one I don't feel good about and perhaps I'm letting the series record sway my judgement. Even when they had Esiason and "The Manster", Randy White, they still couldn't win. The fact that the game is at the Beav influenced my choice.
Indiana–Loss–First off, I blame last years embarrassment on a stupid BoB game plan, no adjustments at all during the game and the definitive proof that John Butler had no clue what he was doing as a DC. I figure we're going to lose four and this has a good possibility to be one of them.
Temple–Win–Wayne Hardin doesn't coach the Owls anymore, 'nuff said!
Illinois–Win–It's Tim Beckman, 'nuff said! Wonder if he'll revisit all of his old recruiting haunts while in State College.
MSU–Loss–With the Land Grant Trophy up for grabs, Sparty tries to lose the game, but in the end has to cart that monstrosity back to their trophy case (Hope it's been fixed in the intervening period since they broke it!)
So there you have it. I think there are some wins and losses that could be interchanged, but I think it will be an overall successful season again with the caveats that Franklin and his staff know what the hell they're doing, we avoid injuries to key personnel and we don't get stuck in Ireland waiting for the ash cloud to dissipate.
I think the bowl ban goes away this year and the scholarship limits are fully restored for next season. The NCAA and CoPA will settle where the $60M goes, but PS's wins under Joe will remain vacated until the Schultz, Curley Spanier trial is completed, pissing off the Paterno-ista's to no end.
So there is a good possibility that PS will go bowling at the end of the season. With the new affiliations and the bowls having some ability to put together decent match ups, and if PS finishes 5th through 7th in the B1G, I think they get invited to the Bronx to play in the Pinstripe Bowl against Pitt (if they meet the ACC criteria). I think that one would sell out.
But even if they go to the "Toilet Bowl" as you so eloquently stated, those 15 extra practices will be critical to Franklin and his staff in bringing along the youngsters for a run in '15 and especially '16 (when Hackenburg wins the Heisman and PS wins the B1G championship).
Are you going to track the results of our predictions during the season? Might be an interesting foot-note in your post game diatribes.