August 25, 2004 - Kerry Holds 10-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corzine Buries GOP Contenders In Gov Race
Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry leads Republican George W. Bush 49 - 39 percent among New Jersey voters, with 4 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 49 -36 percent Kerry lead in New Jersey, with 6 percent for Nader, in an August 4 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Only 7 percent of New Jersey voters say they are less likely to vote for Kerry because of Gov. James McGreevey's decision to resign.
Voters split on when Gov. McGreevey should resign, with 46 percent saying he should go now and 48 percent saying he should wait until November 15. Voters disapprove 51 - 39 percent of the job McGreevey is doing, compared to a 47 - 38 percent disapproval August 4. Voters say 50 - 45 percent that McGreevey will be unable to lead the state effectively until November 15.
"The turmoil in New Jersey including the resignation of Gov. McGreevey has had no impact on Sen. Kerry's support in the state. The Democratic contender still enjoys a double digit lead, as would be expected in a traditionally Democratic state such as New Jersey. The controversy over Kerry's Vietnam record also has had no effect in New Jersey, probably because the Swift Boat ads were not played in the state," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
New Jersey voters approve 54 - 24 percent of the job Sen. Jon Corzine is doing, his
highest approval rating ever. Matching Sen. Corzine against possible Republican challengers in a race for Governor shows the Democrat beating all comers:
49 - 24 percent over Diane Allen;
48 - 32 percent over Bret Schundler;
50 - 27 percent over Douglas Forrester:
52 - 24 percent over Bob Franks;
53 - 22 percent over Christopher Christie;
48 - 37 percent over Christine Whitman.
"Sen. Corzine has emerged from the McGreevey scandal as the new strongman in New Jersey politics. Without having really done anything, Corzine's job approval rating jumped eight points in three weeks and at this point he would wipe out all potential GOP challengers in a governor's race," Richards added.
"His possible rival for the Democratic nomination next year, Senate President Richard Codey, who will become acting governor, is unknown to the vast majority of voters. That will change after he has a chance to run the state, but he still has a long way to go to catch Corzine."
Asked who becomes acting governor when McGreevey steps down, 26 percent of voters know "Codey" and 10 percent know "Senate President," but 60 percent of voters do not know the name or the office.
Asked their opinion of Senate President Richard Codey, 79 percent of voters say they do not know enough to form an opinion.
New Jersey voters support 73 - 20 percent amending the state constitution to create the elected position of Lieutenant Governor, with the Governor's running mate next in line if the Governor leaves office.
From August 19 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 887 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey is handling his job as Governor?
App     Dis     DK/NA
Aug 25, 2004            39      51       9
Aug 4, 2004             38      47      14
Jun 22, 2004            45      39      16
May 19, 2004            41      43      16
Mar 9, 2004             38      47      15
Nov 12, 2003            34      52      14
Sep 24, 2003            35      52      14
Jul 17, 2003            35      49      16
Apr 2, 2003             38      44      18
Jan 29, 2003            40      41      18
Dec 11, 2002            37      42      21
Oct 7, 2002             44      43      13
Apr 24, 2002            40      32      28
Aug 25, 2004            38      44      19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
Oct 18, 2001            51      19      29
Jul 5, 2001             48      22      30
Feb 8, 2001             35      18      47
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
Dec 6, 2000             52      20      27
Mar 29, 2000            53      22      25
Feb 23, 2000            52      23      25
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Very    Smwht   Smwht   Very
sat     sat     dis     dis     DK/NA
Aug 25, 2004             7      39      27       25      1
Aug 4, 2004              4      44      32       19      1
Jun 22, 2004             6      48      31       15      1
May 19, 2004             5      45      29       20      -
Mar 9, 2004              4      40      36       19      1
Nov 12, 2003             3      37      35       23      1
Sep 24, 2003             4      41      33       22      1
Jul 17, 2003             4      42      35       18      1
Apr 2, 2003              4      42      37       16      2
Jan 29, 2003             3      42      33       20      1
Dec 11, 2002             4      47      31       17      1
Dec 26, 2000            10      61      21        7      1
Feb 12, 1999            11      60      21        7      -
Oct 22, 1997             8      53      26       12      1
Sep 16, 1997             9      48      27       15      -
Apr 10, 1997             7      52      29       11      1
Feb 20, 1997            11      56      23       10      1
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Aug 5, 2004             43      53       4
Jun 23, 2004            42      54       4
May 20, 2004            44      52       4
Mar 9, 2004             44      52       5
Nov 13, 2003            47      50       3
Sep 25, 2003            49      47       4
Jul 17, 2003            53      43       4
Apr 1, 2003             67      29       4
Jan 29, 2003            54      42       4
Dec 11, 2002            58      36       5
Oct 7, 2002             62      34       5
Apr 24, 2002            77      18       5
Oct 18, 2001            90       7       3
Sep 26, 2001            88       8       5
Jul 5, 2001             53      42       5
TREND: Suppose/If the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
SMONE   WLDN'T
JK      GWB     ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA
Aug 25, 2004            51      39       1       1      7
Aug 5, 2004             52      38       2       1      7
Jun 23, 2004            49      41       2       1      6
May 20, 2004            47      44       1       1      6
Nov 13, 2003            45      46       1       1      6
Sep 25, 2003            43      48       1       1      6
TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?
JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA
Aug 25, 2004            49      39       4       1       1       7
Aug 5, 2004             49      36       6       1       2       6
Jun 23, 2004            46      40       7       -       1       6
May 20, 2004            46      43       5       1       1       5
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey is handling his job as Governor?
Approve                 39%     18%     59%     33%     35%     43%
Disapprove              51      75      33      55      57      47
DK/NA                    9       8       8      12       8      10
Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore
Approve                 45%     42%     41%     38%     30%
Disapprove              42      49      54      50      63
DK/NA                   13      10       5      12       6
DK/NA                   19      18      18      20      18      19
DK/NA                   22      16      24      22      11
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
DK/NA                    3       2       3       4       2       4
DK/NA                    4       2       4       3       3
6. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
A lot                   58%     57%     62%     60%     64%     52%
Some                    27      27      26      26      24      30
Only a little           10      10       9      10       7      13
None at all              5       6       3       3       4       5
DK/NA                    -       -       -       1       -       -
A lot                   55%     59%     56%     57%     61%
Some                    23      30      32      25      24
Only a little           13       9       9      10      10
None at all              8       2       2       7       5
DK/NA                    -       -       1       1       -
7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
Mltry
Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HsHlds
Kerry                   51%     12%     85%     45%     47%     56%     47%
Bush                    39      85       9      38      43      36      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       1       2       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       -       -       2       1       1       1
DK/NA                    7       2       5      13       8       6       7
Kerry                   65%     57%     39%     52%     38%
Bush                    26      34      49      41      51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       1       2       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       1       1       -       2
8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?
Nader                    4       2       3       7       2       6       3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       -       2       1       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       -       1       1       1       1       1
Nader                    4       2       7       3       6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       1       -       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       -       -       -       1
9. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Very satisfied           7%      4%     12%      4%      5%      9%
Smwht satisfied         39      28      48      39      40      39
Smwht dissatisfied      27      28      25      27      27      27
Very dissatisfied       25      40      14      29      27      24
Very satisfied           3%      6%      9%     14%      5%
Smwht satisfied         47      44      36      33      34
Smwht dissatisfied      24      25      28      28      33
Very dissatisfied       25      24      26      24      28
10. Governor McGreevey recently announced that he is gay and that he had an extramarital affair with a man and that he will resign from office. How much have you heard or read about this - a lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?
Only a little            3       3       4       1       2       3
Nothing at all           -       -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    -       1       -       1       -       -
Only a little            5       -       1       7       2
Nothing at all           -       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                    -       -       2       -       -
11. Do you think Governor McGreevey should have resigned or do you think he should have served out his term in office?
Resigned                53%     74%     37%     54%     58%     48%
Served term             42      23      58      39      36      47
Resigned                49%     53%     51%     52%     57%
Served term             48      40      44      42      39
12. Governor McGreevey has said that he will resign on November 15th. Do you think Governor McGreeey should resign immediately or wait until November 15th?
Immediately             46%     76%     22%     53%     52%     41%
Nov 15th                48      21      70      43      42      53
Immediately             38%     47%     52%     47%     49%
Nov 15th                50      48      45      48      48
DK/NA                   12       5       3       6       3
13. Under the circumstances, do you think Governor McGreevey will be able to lead the state effectively for the next three months or not?
Yes                     45%     19%     66%     41%     39%     50%
No                      50      76      27      54      56      44
Yes                     47%     45%     43%     44%     45%
No                      43      50      53      50      53
14. Does the McGreevey resignation make you less likely to vote for John Kerry for President or not?
Yes                      7%     13%      4%      4%      9%      6%
Yes                      5%      7%      5%     13%      7%
15. (If "Resigned" q11) Earlier, you said you thought Governor McGreevey should have resigned. What is the main reason you think he should have resigned - because he is gay, because he had an extramarital affair, or because he gave the man involved in the affair a job on the state payroll?
"SHOULD HAVE RESIGNED" Q11.................
Gay                      3%      1%      6%      3%      5%      1%
Affair                   6       6       9       3       4       8
On state payroll        74      76      66      80      74      75
16. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Diane Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Corzine                 49%     18%     78%     44%     48%     51%
Allen                   24      50       8      21      26      22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       1       2       3       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       1       1       4       1       3
Corzine                 59%     59%     36%     37%     47%
Allen                   12      16      27      43      28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       -       2       3       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       2       3       4       4
17. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Bret Schundler the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Schundler               32      65      12      30      38      27
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       -       2       1       2
Schundler               28      30      40      30      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       -       4       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       -       1       3       3
18. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Douglas Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Forrester               27      65       5      22      31      23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       -       2       2       3       1
Forrester               13      26      37      30      32
19. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Bob Franks the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Franks                  24      56       6      19      28      20
Franks                  11      25      28      26      29
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       1       3       5       4
20. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Christie                22      52       6      17      27      17
Christie                14      23      25      23      23
21. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christine Whitman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Whitman                 37      72      16      31      39      35
DK/NA                   12      10       8      17      12      11
Whitman                 33      31      45      40      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       -       2       2
22. If Governor McGreevey resigns on November 15th as planned, do you happen to know the name of the person who will be taking over as acting Governor? If yes: Who?
Richard Codey           26%     32%     24%     27%     30%     24%
Senate President        10       9      14       7      13       8
Wrong/Don't know        60      52      60      65      53      66
REFUSED                  3       7       2       2       5       3
Richard Codey           33%     27%     29%     18%     26%
Senate President         9      12       8      11       8
Wrong/Don't know        52      59      59      68      62
REFUSED                  7       2       4       2       4
23. State Senate President Richard Codey will take over as acting Governor if Governor McGreevey resigns on November 15th. Is your opinion of Richard Codey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Favorable               10%      6%     13%      9%     11%      9%
Unfavorable              4       8       2       5       6       3
Mixed                    7      10       3       9       8       6
Hvn't hrd enough        79      75      82      76      76      81
REFUSED                  1       -       -       1       -       1
Favorable               10%     13%      8%      7%      6%
Unfavorable              3       4       7       4       4
Mixed                   15       3       5       7       8
Hvn't hrd enough        72      79      80      81      81
REFUSED                  -       1       -       -       -
24. If Codey serves as acting governor for almost a year, do you think he should run for Governor in 2005?
25. Some people have suggested amending the state constitution to create an office of lieutenant governor. The lieutenant governor would be the governor's running mate and become the governor if the governor is unable to complete their term. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?
Good idea               73%     71%     74%     75%     73%     73%
Bad idea                20      20      20      18      22      18
Good idea               77%     75%     76%     65%     71%
Bad idea                21      17      19      25      18
DK/NA                    2       9       5      10      11
26. Would you vote for a political candidate who is openly gay or lesbian?
No                      14      15       8      26      25
27. Would you vote for a political candidate who had an extramarital affair?
DK/NA                    8       9       9       8       6      10
DK/NA                    7      10       6      10       6