Going like Turnbull at a gate
By Miranda Devine
September 20, 2007 — 10.00am
IF you look at the last week of confusing developments in the federal Liberal Party through the prism of Malcolm Turnbull's ambition it all becomes clear. The multimillionaire barrister and merchant banker did not go into politics to be shadow minister for water or to show kids in Vaucluse how to change a light bulb.
There is only one reason he put himself through all the indignities of campaigning for the seat of Wentworth - he plans to be prime minister. And, as anyone who knows the Minister for the Environment will agree, once he has a plan, nothing can stop him.
He turns 53 next month and so in order to achieve his ambition before his 60th birthday he has at most two elections left after this one. Seen through the prism of his ambition, the only things standing in his way are the Prime Minister, John Howard, and the Treasurer, Peter Costello. Last week, after less than a term in office, he tried to dispatch at least one.
Piecing together the events of the past two weeks, from the accounts of several Liberal insiders, it appears Turnbull was the "most destabilising force" in the party, using strategic media connections and new internal alliances to "stitch up a deal" that would remove Howard from the leadership and bring him, Turnbull, closer to the prize.
The deal, according to a Liberal insider who was not part of the plotting, was to replace Howard with Costello as leader, with Alexander Downer as treasurer, Turnbull as finance minister and Nick Minchin as foreign minister. Downer and Minchin, loyal to Howard, were said not to be plotting.
One backbencher, observing Turnbull in a corner whispering to Costello in last week's Coalition party-room meeting, muttered to another: "Malcolm is doing what Malcolm does best - being a ruthless merchant banker, stitching up deals and screwing over people."
While the destabilisation of the past two weeks was said to have started among Costello supporters, after a particularly bad Newspoll, Turnbull seized the opportunity, using the power of his personality and force of his intellect to agitate for change.
When it all came to a head at a private meeting of ministers called by Downer, at Howard's behest, while they were in Sydney for the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, Turnbull was at his persuasive best, with most of cabinet reportedly agreeing Howard should step aside.
But, just as was the case with the republic, the overwhelming power of Turnbull's argument wasn't anywhere near enough.
Howard was going nowhere.
As one Liberal MP says, the cabinet has just a handful of the votes in the Coalition party room, where Howard was last week confirmed as leader, "first among equals", in Costello's words. The feeling in the room that day was antagonistic towards cabinet ministers felt to be self-indulgent and "out of touch with the grassroots" of the Coalition, particularly in marginal seats.
When a backbencher stood to comment on an issue unrelated to the leadership, and pointedly told the cabinet: "You only have one vote each, just like every other person in this room," there was a resounding "Hear, hear".
Some insiders view the episode as having fatally damaged Turnbull and regard him as having been "used" by the Liberal moderate or left faction, whose members want nothing more than for Howard to leave but were happy to have Turnbull do the dirty work.
"They played him like a violin," says one backbencher. "When the music stopped he was the one left holding the parcel."
Still, Turnbull was looking remarkably pleased with himself this week (though that may be a default position), even after a spectacularly public dressing down from the Prime Minister on the floor of Parliament last week.
"It wasn't about trees," said one insider, referring to the proposed Tasmanian pulp mill, which is causing the biggest political problem in Turnbull's portfolio.
Perhaps Turnbull was happy because, despite the political damage the leadership tensions caused to the Coalition so close to an election, he believed he had successfully repositioned himself as the next in line after Costello.
There had been Kerry-Anne Walsh's report in The Sun-Herald of the "wild scenario doing the rounds … a contingency option", in which Turnbull took over the leadership from Howard if Costello was reluctant to step up so soon before the election.
With Turnbull's seat of Wentworth now the second most marginal in NSW, thanks to a boundary change, you can see how such a reckless scenario might appeal to man with nothing to lose and tons of self-belief.
There was the Sky News report, undenied for hours, that Downer and Turnbull "no longer believe Prime Minister John Howard should lead the Liberal Party".
Surprisingly to some, Downer apparently still has leadership ambitions, despite his disastrous first try. Supporters say that, as he once stood aside from the leadership for Howard, he has more right to take over than Costello.
So the idea of a Downer-Turnbull partnership had a few fringe supporters in the media until Downer refuted the story and pledged loyalty to the Prime Minister. No one really doubted Downer's loyalty to Howard. But he owes no such allegiance to Costello.
No wonder Costello has been agitated, with rivals growing stronger as Howard's time stretches on.
His mood cannot have been helped by the article in The Bulletin last week by Turnbull's old Sydney Grammar schoolmate Rob Hirst, claiming: "Turnbull is being groomed by Howard as the next Liberal leader over the head of Costello, the duplicitous deputy."
Turnbull is a charming media cultivator, but how much he had to do with driving these stories is not clear. The result, however, was to build such momentum for his leadership credentials that, when The Australian commissioned a Newspoll, published on Tuesday, of leadership contenders it included just Costello and Turnbull, overlooking the more obvious choices of Downer and the Minister for Defence, Brendan Nelson.
Turnbull was jet-propelled into cabinet by the Prime Minister, who has a soft spot for Turnbull's father-in-law, Tom Hughes, a former Liberal attorney-general whose campaign Howard ran in 1963. But there are also those who say Howard has done himself and the party a "great disservice" by promoting Turnbull so quickly.
"He has had the effect here of a shark in a tank of fish," said one fellow Liberal MP. "I don't think he's used to an environment where he is not top of the class, and boss of everyone else."
He may have made a few more enemies this week, and damaged the Coalition's prospects a little, but, viewed through the Turnbull personal ambition prism, it's been a rather satisfactory fortnight.
devinemiranda@hotmail.com