COVID-19: 12/18/2020 Update (State, Local and KCS)
Knoxville Urban Guy· December 18, 2020
·18 Comments
Tennessee Daily Cases 12.18.2020 (Source: TN.gov)
Happy Friday! It's Keith Richard's birthday. Maybe we should be researching his blood for vaccine possibilities? Meanwhile, local musician and general fine human, Mike McGill has his 8th Annual Mike McGill Christmas Spectacular tonight starting at 8:00 PM. Usually at Barley's tonight's event, in keeping with the times, will be broadcast via FB Live to raise money for Second Harvest Food Bank. Join in for some great local music and to support a good cause – and make plans to catch it live next year! I hope to put out a few more ideas for seasonal fun, perhaps as early as tomorrow, so watch for that.
State News:
The state of Tennessee reported 8,945 new cases yesterday, bringing the state totals to 444,105 confirmed cases and 49,125 probable cases. 418,724 Tennesseans are considered to have inactive cases while 68,661 have active cases. Over the last seven days, the state is averaging 9,179 new cases each day.
In a trend that is becoming more common, the numbers for new hospitalizations each day is often reaching triple digits. 100 additional COVID-positive Tennesseans were admitted to the hospital yesterday, bringing the pandemic total to 13,537. The total currently hospitalized has reached 2,897, while 754 are currently in ICUs across the state and 388 are on ventilators. Each of the three numbers represents a new record for the state. 12% of statewide hospital beds are currently available and 8% of ICU beds.
Tennessee Daily Testing and Positive Test Result Rate 12.18.2020 (Source: Johns Hopkins University)
The state also reported a record 177 deaths for the day from COVID-19. The previous record, 100, was set ten days earlier. For the last seven days, the average of daily deaths from the virus is 86, the highest it has been at any point during the pandemic.
About 32.9 thousand tests were reported yesterday, down considerably from recent days, but in the high-average range for the state. For the day, the state reported a 21.5% positive test result rate, more than 4 times higher than the level considered to reflect an adequate level of testing. Johns Hopkins is reporting a seven-day positive test average for the state of 18.1%.
Knox County Daily Cases 12.18.2020 (Source: Knox County Health Department)
The Knox County Health Department reported 401 new confirmed cases for the day. It marks six consecutive days over 400 new cases and brings the county's totals to 25,664 confirmed cases and 1,979 probable cases. Of these, 22,887 people are considered to have inactive cases, while the 4,569 active cases establish a new record high for the county.
702 COVID-positive Knox County residents have now been hospitalized since the beginning of the pandemic. There are currently 138 county residents hospitalized with the illness, up 11 from yesterday, but below the record of 146 reported on December 10.
Deaths continue to escalate as the county reported 10 deaths for the day, bringing the pandemic total for the county to 247. The death total represents only the second time the county has reported 10 or more for a single day. The first was two days ago when the county reported 11. It brings the number reported for the month to 80, far past the previous record for a single month. Of those reported today, two were between ages 64 and 75 and eight were age 75 or older.
The state website reports Knox County's positive test rate at 19%, with a daily average of just over 2,600 tests given.
Knox County Schools Active Cases 12.18.2020 (Source Knox County Schools)
Knox County Schools:
The Knox County School system does appear to be updating its site with new cases, meaning I'll continue the updates through at least Monday, before taking a break from those numbers for the holiday. I'm not convinced they are getting as much information as was the cases when students were in person but, clearly, they are adding cases.
The system is reporting 201 active cases, up from 186 yesterday. The 201 includes 105 students and 96 staff members. 1,457 students and staff are considered recovered, while 1,949 are quarantined or in isolation. Of these, 1,718 are students and 231 are staff members. All schools remain on virtual instruction until after the holiday break. Today is the last day for classes.
Previous ArticleCOVID-19: 12/17/2020 Update (State, Local, KCS and Today's Health Department Briefing)
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Knoxville Urban Guy· January 13, 2022
COVID-19: 1/7/2022 Update
Knoxville Urban Guy· January 7, 2022
Nancy Mott says:
Alan, your postings have been such a blessing! We've so benefitted by the compilations of Coronavirus reports, and I've thanked you for this before. And also what a blessing are your encouragements for finding joy in its midst, complete with positive examples. Every bit of positivity we can marshal helps move us toward health. Thank you!
Susan McMahon says:
I totally agree with Nancy. I have read the posts daily for months now, and I find it helpful to have the facts and the trend information I need all in one place. Alan provides a unique and wonderful service to our community, and he always does so with grace and a touch of humanity (in his intro paragraphs).
J. R. Hall says:
I agree! Thank you so much! My family has become a statistic and my husband was admitting to the hospital yesterday. Many older ones in the waiting room with covid issues. I only say that to say I really appreciate your posts! Jokes too! Take care and hope you stay healthy.
KnoxvilleUrbanGuy says:
Thank you. I hope your husband is soon recovered and home.
"Cases today equal deaths next month."
WTF?! Do you think you can work harder to scare people?
Just because someone gets Covid does not mean they're going to die!
How about showing some stats on the recoveries for a change? Maybe quit spreading fear for once and throw some light peoples way.
Bill, Alan does put the numbers of recovered cases in his summary. Like my wife says: "If you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything!"
I personally know people who have died of this. If I caught it, I'd be on that list too. So, being able to read this lets me know what I can and cannot do these days.
Stay Safe everyone! Mask up! Stay 6ft apart (or more)
Hi Bill. I see you made it onto the site from FB. I replied to you there, but it looks like moderators took down your post because of the language. How many times have you read an article that I've written? Did you read today's article, you know, the one you posted on? Did you miss the part where I gave numbers on recoveries? Did you know that I do that every day and have for ten months? At least here you didn't accuse me of having an agenda and you toned the language down.
Yes, I understand that everyone who gets COVID-19 doesn't die. I've read a little about it over the last few months and I've gotten that, thanks. I've also "thrown some light people's way." I try to every single day. Do you? I looked at your FB page and didn't see a lot of light. We could all use some.
And, yes, I did say that cases today equal deaths next month. They do. Not one-to-one as anyone who has been awake for the last ten months knows. But the 500 cases reported today will produce the deaths we see in mid-to-late January. The bigger the number of cases today, the bigger the number of deaths then. That is the way the disease works. So, everyone who can be encouraged to do the right thing today has an opportunity to reduce deaths in four-to-six weeks.
Best wishes, friend. And please get your vaccine when it becomes available. I see the anti-vax meme on your FB page and I worry that isn't helping matters.
A certain percentage of cases will end in the hospital and a percentage of those will end in deaths. Rising cases now means rising deaths several weeks from now. The fact that there is a lag means that you have to think three weeks ahead to decide whether you need to act or not. It's not fear-mongering to make this connection. It's denial, and deadly, to try to downplay what is going on. Fear isn't killing people. Lack of action is.
Em Chitty says:
He didn't say x number of cases means x number of deaths. The disease is obviously not 100% lethal. But cases do mean some deaths. That's truth. Better to deal with it than try to turn your face the other way.
SuburbanMom says:
Ditto, Nancy Mott AND please take great care of you and yours!
Bob Dundas says:
"Cases today equals deaths next month.' WTF? Bill! True statement Bill! Unless you're living in a cave, and don't hear about all the hospitals in multiple states that are anywhere from 90% to 200% ICU capacity or more due to Covid. You SHOULD be scared, Bill. Or at least, more objectively aware and certainly more considerate. Mortality rate isn't everything – but it does go up even higher when people in bad Covid shape can't even GET IN to an intensive care unit because so many are that sick. And your desire for recovery stats are going to pale in comparison to the spread of the disease and its after effects. Just because people 'recover' and don't die doesn't mean they aren't badly messed up. I have a neighbor who is a nurse, she recovered from Covid but has been sick for 7 months after Covid due to other side effects from the virus. She might lose her house without her income. But hey, Bill, she's alive, she's one of your recoveries. A relative of my boss got well from having Covid but now can't work because he gets too exhausted after even minor physical exertions. Has a wife and three kids to support. But hey, Bill, he's alive. Another recovery for you. Sort of, anyway. It's not just about dying. Yes, some get it and have no symptoms. But although they happily trumpet their good fortune they've spread the virus to God knows how many others who DO get ill and die, or suffer ongoing consequences. Get a grip, Bill. Look at the BIG picture. My God grant it doesn't happen to YOU.
Bob Fischer says:
As we wonder if Amazon will indeed get the last of our lights to us in time to get them up for Christmas, I find myself pause to consider the mathematical properties of the human condition of local saturation points in pandemics, the legal ramifications of leading bio terrorist cells and how the international prosecution of crimes against humanity actually works.
Early indications of our latest surge indicate that while enhancing presurge numbers, we will have waves of increased cases until such time as we shut down or infect our whole community, or both. There will be a point where the free market will be responsible for a shutdown of our local economy, and that shutdown will last until the death count works its way through our population, about six weeks. There could be multiple shutdowns as waves of Covid move through before immunization controls the spread of the virus. Right now the cumulative effect of the delay Governor Lee has put on vaccinations can be measured in days and weeks, but what if it turns into months or years? How long will our leaders force us to endure our present situation?
Which leads us to the conscious decision to accelerate and maintain infection throughout our community, the very definition of bio terrorism. The current justification for the local bio terrorist movement is that somehow the Board of Health is an illegitimate
extension of legislative power, but the constitution specifically states all legislative power is delegated to the legislature and that would include the power to delegate authority to experts in specific times of defined need. That is why Commission and the Mayor have not pursued their position through the courts, they're lying to their constituents and they know they're lying. They are committing terrorist acts against the citizens they're sworn to serve, in direct violation of the Fourteenth Amendment for the sole purpose of consolidating power to the Mayor's office.
Which leads to the question of whether or not the Mayor and Commission's actions qualify as a crime against humanity. After reading Encyclopedia Britannica's explanation the answer is pretty clearly that, at least in a literal sense, yes it is. They seems to be some gray area in the way international law is written though, that would make the extradition of Jacobs, Biggs, Ward and Zachary unlikely, particularly under the Trump administration. It is unlikely that the prosecution of our local officials at The Hague will occur, regardless of our President though, as the more likely scenario would just be to send in the National Guard to manage the local Covid response.
I worry that our average daily death toll will end up at 40-50 a day for a period of time. I think our hospitals will be taxed beyond their capacity to function. I worry that we won't have the necessary workforce to maintain our vital functions of society. But I'm particularly concerned that the nature of this discourse hasn't moved since March. The same lies and misinformation that drove our early bad decisions and set up the thousands of deaths we're likely to see are driving the discourse now. We need leadership.
Tim D says:
Alan, thanks again for your dedication to providing these numbers to us.
Right now is obviously a bad time to be out and visiting friends. Here is additional info about our area that reinforces that:
(Rank in metro counties in TN) County – % Positive Tests
(1) Loudon – 27.2%
(3) Sevier – 24.7%
(4) Union – 23.0%
(9) Blount – 21.5%
(14) Knox – 19.0%
(18) Anderson – 16.5%
(non-metro) Grainger – 23.2%
(non-metro) Jefferson – 20.4%
(non-metro) Roane – 20.2%
Thing is, these numbers added to suspected asymptomatic spread would seem to mean somewhere between 1 in 5 up to almost 3 out of 5 people in the public are currently sick with covid if we directly extend them to the untested public in general. At that proportion of sick you would think we would all get covid soon.
We need random testing to see what the correlation between test numbers and untested public numbers is.
At this point, when (if) things don't go off the chain, we feel doubt about the severity of the numbers and some of us will decide that we don't really need to adhere to the safety measures recommended.
Despite the continual monkey-wrenches of varied work and vacation/recreation travel and changes in personal outlooks on the need to be safe we need accurate numbers and demonstrably correct predictions in order for high compliance with mitigation/suppression measures to be widespread.
I'll defer to any real statisticians who read this, but I think there is an unfounded leap in your logic. You are assuming that the 1/5 testing positive probably correlates to 20% or higher in the general population. When we have 20% positivity rate it means we are likely testing a far higher percentage of people who are symptomatic than would be the case if testing was more comprehensive. Since we are testing more symptomatic people, the percentage of positive citizens at large would be much lower. Anyone want to weigh in?
I think we are off the chain, personally. We had five deaths in the first four months of the pandemic and we had ten today. My guess is that number will routinely be over 15 or twenty a day by mid-January.
I think your 15-20 estimate for January is about spot on. Keep up the good work! Thank you for all your effort.
Alan, I agree with what your assertion that those who seek testing will have a higher positive rate than the general public. I had included the "if we directly extend them (numbers) to the untested public in general" condition but I didn't add that that shouldn't be done. My mistake.
Unfortunately, without randomized testing we are left with guesses on how many cases there are in the public especially when we have had wildly varying estimates of the rate of asymptomatic cases (and the contagiousness of these cases) over the months.
I'm just frustrated that there doesn't seem to be a firm consensus on what numbers are truly dire and what that would look like. Maybe there won't be a consensus because we Americans/Tennesseeans/Knox Countians have a huge range in tolerance for poop hitting the fan…
Yeah, I don't really think there is a magic number of cases, hospitalizations or deaths that will make a difference, though I thought so early on. I mean, if 320,000 dead Americans isn't enough, well, ok then.
Thank you for your fact driven reporting. I read it daily.
I encourage everyone to email Knox County Commission at https://www.knoxcounty.org/commission/ (the deadline for speaking has already passed).