"In der Früh entlang des nördlichen Alpenrandes trüb und immer wieder Regenschauer. Auch der Hauptkamm steckt länger in Wolken, größere Regenmengen sind hier im Westen bis etwa zu den Tauern möglich, nach Osten herrscht starke Bewölkung vor. An der Südseite von der Bernina bis zu den Karawanken unter Föhneinfluss zumidest trocken, östwärts davon wesentlich weniger Föhneinfluss, so dass es auch dort am späteren Vormittag zu regnen beginnt. In allen anderen Gebieten besteht die Chance auf ein wenig Sonne."
El Nino oder Jahrhundertwinter, es ist ein Thema was polarisiert.
Januar ist bald vorbei, wird langsam eng mit dem Jahrhundert-tausend- Winter.
Wenigstens gehn nun Skitouren, ob das no was wird?
Es gibt keinen statistischen Zusammenhang zwischen El-Nino und europäischem Winter.
Was für Quellen entstammt die Aussage?
Fig. 2.: Contemporaneous 3-month seasonal correlations of Niño-3.0 with precipitation in four European regions: (a) the British Isles (50°–60°N, 12°W–2°E); (b) France and the western Alps (44°–50°N, 6°W–10°E); (c) the Baltic Sea region (48°–64°N, 2°–30°E); and (d) Iberia (36°–44°N, 10°W–10°E). The solid red line is ECA&D, the solid black line is CAMS precipitation, the black dashed line is NASA precipitation, and the dashed-dotted line is CMAP precipitation. The red dashed line indicates statistical significance at p < 0.05 for the longer ECA&D dataset; the black dotted line indicates statistical significance at p < 0.05 for the other precipitation datasets.
From season to season the teleconnection changes considerably. A negligible precipitation response to ENSO exists on average over western Europe during boreal winter (Fig. 2). ENSO variability during JFM does produce a profound upper tropospheric response over the western and central North Atlantic (Fig. 3; see also Shaman and Tziperman 2005); however, the induced Rossby wave train passes to the west of Europe and thus does not appear to affect European precipitation. Instead, the MCA analysis indicates that European winter precipitation variability is primarily coupled with changes in the NAO (not shown), which is consistent with results from previous studies (Hurrell and van Loon 1997; Rimbu et al. 2001; Zveryaev 2004; Efthymiadis et al. 2007).
A number of prior studies have found associations between ENSO and European temperature or SLP (e.g., van Loon and Madden 1981); however, only a few studies have found some association between wintertime ENSO and European precipitation, and here we found none. Efthymiadis et al. (2007) found a weak effect of ENSO on rainfall within the European Alps, which is a much smaller region than examined here. Zanchettin et al. (2008) found an association between ENSO and wintertime European precipitation when the phase of the NAO and/or PDO is factored; however, their definition of winter spanned October–March, and thus included the fall period for which there is evidence of a robust link.