Andrew Luck has never found a way to beat the Patriots. Can he avoid going 0-for-6 on Thursday?
Can Andrew Luck finally get over the hump against the Patriots?
Bill Belichick has a way of bringing out the worst in Luck. No quarterback with at least five games played against New England (including playoffs) has seen his QB rating drop so dramatically when squaring off against the Patriots coach and defensive mastermind. Luck's stellar career QB rating of 87.7 nosedives to 65.1 in his five career tilts against Belichick — all of which are losses.
While confessing to being aware of his struggles against New England, Luck said there isn't much to be learned from analyzing game tapes from more than three year ago.
A sliver of sunshine is that Luck had his best game against the Patriots in their last meeting. Fans may only remember the ill-fated fake punt but Luck completed 30-of-50 passes for 312 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions in a 34-27 loss during the 2015.
"We will have our hands full with (Luck) on Thursday night," the Patriots coach said via teleconference Tuesday. "He looks pretty good. Andrew does an excellent job of just running the team, making decisions pre-snap, post-snap and handling the team. He is an excellent thrower – all throws down the field, inside, outside the numbers.
Will Colts finally get ground game going?
Through the first four weeks, the Colts (1-3) have been almost completely reliant on the right arm of Luck. Of the 337.0 yards per game this offenses has generated, almost 80 percent of it has come through the air, leaving the Colts running game ranked dead last in the AFC (72.0 yards per game).
That's not exactly an accident. By rush-pass ratio, Frank Reich's Colts are the least-balanced team in the AFC, opting to throw more than 70 percent of the time.
This would be an opportune week for Reich and the Colts to restore balance to their offensive gameplan. Not only would it relieve some of the pressure from Luck's shoulder, but it also would align with how teams have successfully attacked the Patriots (2-2) this year. While owning a pass defense ranked just outside the top 10, the New England run defense has been gashed to the tune of 121.5 yards per game. Before stifling the Dolphins on Sunday, running backs had averaged better than 4.8 yards per carry against the Patriots' front.
Of course, running the ball successfully against New England also comes with the added bonus of chewing up clock and keeping Tom Brady and company off the field. While this Colts defense has played better than expected so far this season, there's no doubt the optimal situation would be to limit the young unit's exposure against a three-time MVP.
Is the rivalry back on?
General Manager Chris Ballard made headlines — and a lot of new fans — when he declared the once-great Colts-Patriots rivalry "back on" after he was rebuffed by New England's mercurial offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels back in February.
But is it really? That will be entirely up to the Colts to decide. As of now, there isn't much of a rivalry to speak of. For one, Ballard — who downplayed the McDaniels episode recently — has turned over this roster so much since taking over there aren't that many Colts players who have ever lined up against New England while wearing the horseshoe on their helmets. Secondly, it takes two parties to constitute a rivalry, and the Colts have given the Patriots little reason over the past few years to be considered "rivals" or even considered at all.
The Colts haven't beat the Patriots since the fourth-and-2 game nearly a decade ago. Since then, New England was won seven straight, sweeping all five games in the Luck era. The Patriots have also played in the past seven consecutive AFC Championship games. Meanwhile, the Colts haven't been back to the playoffs since being throttled by New England 45-7 almost four years ago.
There's no denying there are compelling storylines connecting these two teams. From the McDaniels fiasco to the ex-Patriots and Colts on each side (Phillip Dorsett, John Simon, Adam Vinatieri, Jabaal Sheard and Jacoby Brissett among others), there are embers there that could reignite the rivalry. But until the Colts start winning more consistently and steal a few games from the best team this century, only Indianapolis fans with long memories will see these matchups as rivalry games.