Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5978 in an average volume according to the daily chart. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.6000 almost got tested. If the price breaks the level of 1.6010 in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1.6200 (swing high like resistance). Anyway, be careful when buying at this stage since the price is near the resistance level. My advice is to wait for retracement and then to build buying positions.
Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we may see further upward movement.
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,221.51 in an ultra high volume. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe strong rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,229.00, which is a sign that buying looks very risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,218.00. Watch for potential selling opportunities.
According to previous events, the price of NZD/USD pair has still been trapped between 0.8133 and 0.8010 in the long term.
Buy above the level of 0.7990 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels) with the first target of 0.8070, it might resume moving to 0.8150 and the price will form a new top at this level. The level of 0.8150 will represent a strong resistance today.
Below the level 0.8150 look for further downside with 0.8055 and 0.7990 targets.
It should be noted that the market was rather stable and the downward trend was also clear.
Expect a range of 160 pips as a downtrend from the level of 0.8150.
A strong support level will be formed at the price of 0.7990.
The value of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels has set at the 0.8151 level. So, the ratio of 38.2% is going to act as major resistance. Moreover, it is the key level to confirm the bearish market.
Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.6324 (the weekly pivot point) and 1.6445, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Thus, the range of the GBP/USD pair will be around 80 pips today. Also, it should be noticed that the weekly pivot point is going to act as a strong support on 24 September, 2014. Then the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy deals are recommended above 1.6324 level with their first target at the level of 1.6400. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.6485 ( the weekly resistance 1) and further to the level of 1.6523 ( the double top). However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.6523, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.6523. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.6520 level with the first target at 1.6410. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.6360 then 1.6324 (the weekly pivot point).
We saw the expected strong rally above 1.5859 and it should just be a matter of time before the next strong rally kicks in. This time we should see a break above the base-channel resistance-line near 1.5985 for an acceleration higher to 1.6203 on the way higher to 1.6407. In the short term, only a break below 1.5883 will delay the expected upside rally for a move closer to 1.5860 before the next rally higher.
We are long in EUR from 1.5826 and will move our stop higher to 1.5790. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5936 with the same stop at 1.5790.
We expect support at 139.27 will be able to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 139.76 and more importantly a break above resistance at 140.22, that would call for a strong rally to 141.21 and above for a continuation towards strong resistance at 143.79, where the real battle will unfold. A break above 143.79 will call for much higher levels, but for now, let's see if support at 139.27 will be able to protect the downside, if not it will merely delay the expected upside pressure and the downside progress should be limited.
The Dollar index remains near its highs consolidating. The short-term trend remains neutral. Price is still below important resistance at 85. In case a confirmed break occurs above, it will be a very bullish sign. A rejection at the current levels could bring the index towards 82-81.
The short-term trend remains neutral. Price is mainly moving sideways hitting the resistance level from below but still getting rejected. Resistance is at 84.80-85 area. Breaking above this area will open the way for a sharp rise towards 86. I prefer to stay neutral and wait for a confirmed signal. Breaking below the Ichimoku cloud at 84.30 will not be a good sign for bulls.
In the daily chart above, we see the longer-term trend remains bullish but the sideways action below the strong resistance at 84.80-85 is making us sceptical if bulls have the power to make a break out now. Important daily support is found at 84.20 and if broken this could signal a start of a deeper decline towards 82 or even 81. Bulls should be very cautious now. Very bullish signal if we break and close above 84.80.
Gold price has given a short-term buy signal yesterday after breaking above $1,230 resistance. Gold price has spiked just above $1,234 and pulled back towards $1,220-25 support area. The short-term trend has changed to bullish and we could see a stronger bounce towards $1,250 as long as we trade above $1,215.
Gold price remains in a longer-term a down trend. Price is still below the Ichimoku cloud and inside the downward sloping channel. Price has made a strong bounce from $1,208 to $1,234 and there is still a chance we could see this bounce move higher towards $1,250.
Gold price in the daily chart as shown above is trying to bounce towards the 38% retracement of the decline from $1,295. It is highly probable to see a push towards $1,250 but traders should keep in mind that the trend remains bearish and betting against the trend is always riskier than following the trend. I prefer to stay neutral for now and wait to see if Gold price reaches $1,250 or if it breaks below the key support at $1,215-10.
The rebound from wave (4) purple low hasn't been strong enough to breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 140.21 and the price has failed there and got back into the trading range. Nevertheless, it looks like the first wave of the impulsive progression to the upside has been made (labeled as wave blue -i- ), the corrective cycle looks completed as well (labeled as wave -ii-) and now the market should develop another impulsive wave to the upside without breaking the intraday support at the level of 139.16. Any other market movement means that the key levels will be tested soon.
The buy orders from yesterday should still be kept open as there is still a chance for a further upward wave progression. Sl is below the level of 139.16, TP is above the level of 140.26. Longer time frame TP points out towards the level of 141.27 and above.
The buy positions from Monday should still be kept open, with SL moved to the level of 1.1048 and TP still at the level of 1.1097.
The pair took the support from 50Dsma and again moved to higher levels. It tried to breach the previous high, but again is facing some selling pressure at the 1.11 levels. Today, in Asia's session the pair is unable to cross the previous day high. For the last 2 weeks, the pair has been facing strong resistance at 1.11. If it is taken off, we can see a sharp run up to 100 pips. The pair has a strong support zone between 1.0865 and 1.08464. A weekly closing basis below 50WSma the NT and ST view looks bearish. So, use a dip to buy.
The pair gave a strong close in yesterday's session. But today the pair during Asia's session was unable to breach the previous high. Hourly tarders can use sl 178.46 selling at cmp 178.35 for a target of 177.50. For an intraday view, the prices are closed below 35DEMA. The prices have been holding 12ema at 178, below this, 177.80 and 177.30 are the major support levels. The pair will face some selling pressure below 177.30 towards 176.65, 176.40 and 175 levels. On the other hand, the pair has resistance at 178.73, above this, it can fly up to 179.90 levels. We can see strong upmove above 179.90 levels.
For the short-term view, the pair managed to breach the 200MSma for the first time in the monthly chart after the 2008 fall. In case of a monthly close above 177.65, 200MSma leads to further bullishness in the short term. If the USD index breaches the $85 mark, the yen will weaken further in the future, that adds bullish outlook in this pair in the short term towards 183 and 185-186. This view adds fuel once the pair is able to close above 200MSma on a monthly basis, still 6 trading days left. The pair has strong support at 170 for the short- and medium- term basis.
When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Ifo Business Climate, Belgian NBB Business Climate. The US will release economic data too such as the New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.
In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the US will release some economic data such as New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.
The GBP/CHF is stalling around 1.5400 levels, just ahead of resistance at 1.5450 levels for now. The pair could be carving out a lower top, and preparing to drift lower into 1.5230 levels before rallying again. Please also note that 1.5230 is fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between 1.5093 and 1.5450 as seen here. Furthermore, it is also converging with the past resistance turned support region, depicted here as 1.5220/30. An aggressive trade strategy would warrant a short position now, with risk above 1.5450 while a conservative way would be to remain flat for now and wait for prices to come towards 1.5230 levels before turning long. Chart support is seen at 1.5090, followed by 1.4975 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5450 respectively.
Remain flat for now and look to enter around 1.5230 OR Initiate short positions, stop above 1.5450 target is 1.5230/40.
The pair made a double top at 140.45 in the daily chart and is going through a healthy correction. The pair hit the breakout upper end of the trend line many times, now it is acting as a current support trend line on a closing basis. The pair has managed to close above 200Dsma for 3 days. The pair opened today's session at 139.88 and is trading at 139.75, near 20Dsma. Until the pair trades below 140.20, the pair looks weak attracting bears. The trading pattern is framed between 140.20-139.27 levels. A daily close below 200Dsma or the top end of the triangle, in the near term the pair will favor profit booking.
For an intraday view, the prices are closed below the 35DEMA and 12ema represents some weakness in the hourly chart. Sellers (sl 140.21) can short at the cmp. The weakness will double below 139.27 towards 139.18, 139.10 and 138.46. Safe sellers can sell only below 139.10. Above 140.21 it can fly to 141 levels.
In case of a weekly close below 139.10, the bears will have an upper hand.
Silver has pulled back from sub $18.00 levels yesterday as seen here. It is also the fibonacci 0.382 resistance of the drop between $18.90 and $17.30 levels as depicted. A 1H chart view has been presented here for a closer look into the wave structure. It clearly indicates that the metal remains very much into the sell zone of resistance line. The immediate resistance is seen at $18.60/90 region, followed by $19.10/20 while support is at $17.30 (interim). It is recommended to still remain flat since bulls need to clear at least $18.60/90 before a bullish reversal could be confirmed. Downside risk remains but the metal is soon approaching its major support region around $16.00 levels.
Gold rallied into the $1,234.00/35.00 levels yesterday before retracing back towards $1,221.00/22.00 at close. A 1H chart view has been presented here for a closer look at the smaller wave structures. As seen here, a short-term resistance at $1,228.50, has been taken out by bulls. Furthermore the line of resistance from the $1,270.00 levels had also been broken on the higher side and the metal is testing its back side, which is resistance turned support at the moment, around $1,220.00. Also the fibonacci 0.50% support is passing through the same region as depicted here. All above indications are proof enough to support the view of a rally into at least $1,250.00 levels if not higher.
Initiate long positions now ($1,222.00), stop at $1,201.50, target is open.
The metal took parallel support at the July 2013 low of $1,207.90 and managed to trade above that. The metal hit 200MEma on an intraday basis, but managed to pull back. The metal has a resistance zone between $1,240-$1,242 levels. On the down side, the metal has support below $1,207.90 at $1,200, $1,188-$1,185 and $1,150 levels, maybe even $1,120 levels. Until the metal closes above $1,242, sell on an upmove towards the lower targets. A monthly close below $1,212, the weakness adds the pressure to drive lower levels.
For an intraday level, the prices closed below 34hrsma ($1,224.50) and are holding 21hrsma ($1,219.50), below this, it can fall to $1,215.50 levels. For an hourly trading view gold looks weak below $1,215, panic is expected below $1,207, and the metal looks strong above $1,226 levels.
Daily chart: The USDX has not had significant movements affecting the current trend in this instrument. Now, the USDX has made a rebound on the support level of 84.29, so it is very likely that the USDX will attempt to climb to the resistance level of 85.18. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.
H4 chart: The USDX continues to find support on the bullish trend line at the level of 84.52, so the next target for the USDX would be the resistance level of 85.06 in the short term. If this instrument manages to consolidate above this level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 86.10. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.
H1 chart: The USDX has made a rebound on the support level of 84.37, where this instrument has formed a fractal. Now, the USDX is forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 84.60. If the USDX does make a breakout at the 84.81 level, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 85 03. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 84.81, take profit is at 85.03, and stop loss is at 84.59.
Daily chart: The GBP/USD has found strong support at the level of 1.6326, and now this pair is trying to climb up to the resistance level of 1.6447. If the GBP/USD makes a pullback at this level, it would be expected to fall back to the support level of 1.6326. For now, the GBP/USD is finding strong support to try to go up to the 200-day moving average. The MACD is in positive territory.
H4 chart: This pair has made a rebound on the 200-day moving average, which is close to the support level of 1.6338. Now, the GBP/USD is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 1.6375. If this pair does make a breakout at the level of 1.6419, the next target would be the level of 1.6464. The MACD indicator remains in neutral territory.
H1 chart: This pair has made a rebound on the 200-day moving average, which is close to the support level of 1.6338. Now, the GBP/USD is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 1.6375. If this pair does make a breakout at the level of 1.6419, the next target would be the level of 1.6464. The MACD indicator remains in neutral territory.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance is at 1.6375, take profit is at 1.6419, and stop loss is at 1.6329.