The US isn't 'rounding the corner' on COVID: Fact-checking President Donald Trump's speech in Dubuque, Iowa
Ian Richardson
President Donald Trump visited Iowa Sunday for the second time in three weeks, a final attempt to connect with supporters in the state ahead of Election Day.
The visit came the afternoon after the final pre-election Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed him leading former Vice President Joe Biden by seven percentage points, 48% to 41%. Trump won Iowa by 9.4 percentage points in the 2016 election, but previous Iowa Polls had shown him tied or nearly so with Biden.
During his more than hour-long remarks, Trump made several false and misleading statements, including claiming victory over the spreading coronavirus and continuing to push unverified attacks against Biden's son, Hunter.
He also made inaccurate statements about how long it takes to count ballots and whether Democrats removed the word "God" from the Pledge of Allegiance at the Democratic National Convention.
►Fact-check: Trump's Oct. 14 speech in Des Moines
►Fact-check: Biden's Oct. 30 speech in Des Moines
Here are fact checks of some of Trump's claims from the Iowa rally.
Claim: 'We saved 2 million lives' from the coronavirus
Rating: Mostly false
According to Johns Hopkins University, as of Sunday afternoon, the U.S. had experienced more than 230,000 deaths.
Trump has frequently used the "2 million lives" saved number as an example of how his actions have helped decrease the spread of the virus. But the claim is misleading.
According to PolitiFact, which rated the claim "mostly false," Trump is citing a statistic from a model that shows how many people would have died in the U.S. if the government took no action and people continued living as normal.
But experts told PolitiFact it's unlikely residents would have taken no precautions. Trump is far from the only one responsible for any decrease in deaths, and experts said state and local governments and public health officials deserve credit due to the stronger policies they put in place.
The pandemic also isn't over. Many states are currently battling their highest increases in cases yet, meaning the death toll is likely to continue to rise.
Claim: 'Without (a vaccine) we're rounding the corner'
Rating: False
Trump made a similar false claim during the final presidential debate. The U.S. is far from having the virus under control and just finished a week where it reported a record 500,000 new coronavirus cases.
New cases are peaking in many states around the country, including in Iowa. The number of Iowans hospitalized with COVID-19 hit a new record of 676 on Sunday morning ahead of Trump's speech.
October was, by several metrics, Iowa's worst month of virus activity. It was the first month in Iowa where the state averaged more than 1,000 new cases per day.
►COVID-19: Maps and charts tracking coronavirus in Iowa
Claim: 'Vaccines are coming. They're coming in a matter of weeks.'
Rating: Needs context
A vaccine will not be widely available to the public within a few weeks. But, experts say, it's possible there will be a working vaccine developed by the end of the year.
While the world has prioritized the development of a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine, scientists don't believe it will be widely available to the public until later on next year.
Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said last month that while the U.S. may have a working vaccine before 2020 ends, the general public likely won't receive it until the second or third quarter of 2021.
During an Oct. 15 trip to Iowa, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar shared a similar timeline, saying the U.S. would be able to begin vaccinating the most vulnerable citizens once it has a working vaccine, then would move on to senior citizens and health care providers and finally to the general public in the spring.
Claim: 'We should know the result of the election on Nov. 3 — the evening of Nov. 3. That's the way it's been, and that's the way it should be."
There is never a final tally on election night.
States do not report finalized, official election results on Election Day, nor is there any requirement to do so. States take days to finalize and certify election results following Election Day. However, on election night, news organizations frequently call winners early using preliminary vote totals and other data.
But even then, there's not always an easily discernable winner right away on election night. A CNN fact check pointed to the 2000 election, which had to wait 36 days until the Supreme Court halted recounts in Florida and George W. Bush became president. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry waited to concede to Bush until the following day due to vote counting in Ohio.
The Associated Press didn't call Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 until the early morning of the day after Election Day.
This year's race call could come later due to the time it takes to count mail-in ballots and the expected closeness of the election.
Claim: 'I hate to even say it, but the Democrat Convention, on the Pledge of Allegiance they took the word "God" out.'
Rating: Partly false
Trump on Sunday mentioned he heard this happened twice during the virtual Democratic National Convention in August.
This did occur, but it was during individual council meetings, not during the recitation of the pledge during the convention's program.
According to a USA Today fact check, videos showed the phrase "one nation under God" was included each night during the convention program, which was livestreamed and broadcast on television. Snopes found that the phrase was omitted from the LGBTQ caucus meeting and the Muslim Delegates Assembly, two of several events that took place at the convention throughout the week.
Claim: 'We virtually eliminated the estate tax so you don't have a death tax when you die.'
'In the old days, the kids would have to pay tax and they'd go out, borrow the money and then two years comes along and they end up losing the farm. No estate tax — no death tax.'
'It's a big deal. You don't have the death tax or the estate tax.'
Trump on Sunday first said he "virtually eliminated" the estate tax, then went on to say that there is now "no estate tax — no death tax." The first statement Trump made is closer to the truth.
The estate tax is still around, but the 2017 tax overhaul passed during Trump's term made the threshold for people to qualify twice as high as it was, through 2026. According to a Chicago Tribune fact check, the estate tax wouldn't kick in until $22.4 million for a couple.
Trump's characterization of the estate tax as a widespread problem for family farms is misleading. A Cedar Rapids Gazette fact check earlier this year found most family-operated farms in Iowa would fall well below the threshold, and there is no evidence that families have needed to sell their estates because of the tax.
Trump made a similar inaccurate claim during his Oct. 14 visit to Iowa.
Claim: 'How about, though, the mayor of Moscow's wife gives Hunter a check for $3.5 million.'
Rating: Missing context
As he did during his previous visit to Iowa, Trump on Sunday poured accusations on Biden's son Hunter, including the above claim.
A USA Today fact check found the source of the claim is an 87-page report by the Republican majority on the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Although that claim is listed as a "key finding" in the report, the document links the source of the claim to a confidential document, with no elaboration. Hunter Biden's lawyer has denied that Biden was a co-founder of the entity that is claimed to have received the money.
Fact-checking Joe Biden's Iowa speech: Claims on Supreme Court, Social Security
Fact check: Joni Ernst's claim Theresa Greenfield couldn't run in 2018 because of 'felony election fraud' lacks needed context
No, Donald Trump didn't win Iowa by 11 points: Fact-checking the president's Des Moines speech
Fact-checking Iowa's US Senate debate: What did Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield get right?
Fact-check of the 3rd District debate. Here's what Cindy Axne and David Young got right — and what they got wrong
Ian Richardson covers the Iowa Statehouse for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at irichardson@registermedia.com, at 515-284-8254, or on Twitter at @DMRIanR.