After the unexpectedly high rate of inflation in February, economists expect it to decline in March. In the case of publication of weaker data, in comparison with the forecast, sterling may resume decline. But unexpectedly high values of inflation are still able to support GBP. At the time of publication, I expect an increase in volatility.
Further improvement of these indicators is favorable for EUR. According to economists, Germany business environment condition may slightly improve, but the general indicator for the euro area is unlikely to continue to grow. Accordingly, the excess of the forecast can support EUR (briefly), and weaker values in comparison with the forecast – will put pressure on EUR.
According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, there is no reason to expect an improvement in this indicator. But the unexpected excess of the projected values may provide short-term support for EUR.
USD index sank yesterday at 0.17%, accordingly, all currencies, were able to get support for the recovery. EURUSD increased by 0.14%, limiting the resistance to 1.0600, which we indicated as the maximum on Monday.
Today, technically, after the breakdown of the support level of 1.0570, European currency fall may resume. For Monday, the market doesn't make a reversal, still no signals to buy EURUSD. There are no support factors, except weak dollar. Uncertainty over the elections in France continues, which will provoke sellers to build up short positions.
If you look at the market through the prism of indicators, then the pair tries to go to the 200th SMA on the daily chart. All attempts to buy a pair from the level of 110.00 return it to the same place. However, we will maintain a conservative strategy, and we will wait for a breakdown of the level of 109.90 to resume sales. The goal after the breakdown is to support 109.05. If everything goes well, and the pair continues to decline, we will keep sales to the level of 105.50.
Probably, the first half of the day GBP will go down. The expected statistics on inflation may provoke a repeat move to support 1.2390. Technically, casting below 1.2410 may be temporary. For active purchases, based on their actual UK statistics, it is worth waiting for the break-up resistance level 1.2430.
Like EUR, the Australian dollar did not have enough power to grow enough that we decided not to sell the AUDUSD pair. We hold the target at 0.7467, and 0.7380.
Even if within a day, against the background of the latest index data growth of business confidence in Australia for March to 14 against 9 in February, the pair will rise slightly, this is not a reason to go out of sales.