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The signals below are so you can follow trades that make NEW 52 week highs for the 52 week high system.
A new 52 week high for this system is classified when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.
If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW 52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often given elsewhere.
The signals provided are WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.
The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 7/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 7/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.
Of course the 7 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.
So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!
The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and taught to private clients or at my courses.
Remember these scans are not using a Bull filter. The signals are for the simple 52 week CLOSING high entry and 7/12 EMA crossover exit system only.
This week I am again listing the eBook buy signals. The reason they can be different to the signals above is to do with the Bull filter. The following stocks may have made a 52 week closing high a few weeks ago but were not valid buys in the eBook system because the Bull filter eliminated them, so sometimes the signals are delayed compared to the simple 52 week high system not using the Bull filter. Sometimes the signals with or without the bull filter are the same, it depends on what the market has been doing. The signals below are valid now for the eBook system because the filter is in buy mode.
Comments on DLX. This stock is under a takeover offer the reason for the price spike. It seems likely it will succeed as the Dulux board has recommended to shareholders to accept. I see three main possibilities, the deal goes ahead as per the offer, the offer is increased with a "sweetener" to clinch the deal, the deal falls through. The system if it has the money will buy the stock. However I normally stand aside in these situations. This is not advice, you need to decide what suits you the best in this situation.
The eBook system is now "all in" the market with all cash raised from the correction in December 18, now employed. The portfolio below will not be buying any new signals because it is full and has no cash on hand, unless a stock is stopped out and replaced by another. This week EVN has been stopped and DLX is a buy. The list below the equity graph shows all trades bought and sold since the correction low in Dec 18. The first trade bought was RMD on the 18/1/19.
This chart below shows two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume and the Chaiken Money Flow (displayed in green) using a 13 week format.
The Market rose again this week but volume is dropping and I notice some volatility in the smaller stocks and mid caps. After bagging the Gorilla stocks last week, this week they did well!......holding up the index. Traders and investors must be getting nervous as the index approaches the old highs in August 18. Many "expect" a sell off, it would seem probable, a pull back of some kind, however this market is strong and the US indicies continue to rise. The eBook system pulled back a little this week as its stocks has had a great run, so it took a breather. Volume is trending down signifying buyers could be drying up, for a while anyway, but really who knows with this market. Stay calm and stick to YOUR method.
The market rises again this week. The eBook system had a great week rising nearly 5%. That's a lot and it surprises even me. Peters Portfolio in comparison notched up a measly 2.5% but it does not include this coming Mondays trading. As you can see the XAO didnt rise that much so why the big gains? Because big gains are not in Gorilla stocks like banks, the gains are in low priced stocks with growth prospects, exactly what the eBook system targets by buying 52 week highs. Peters Portfolio does a similar thing but is a little more conservative. Look at the chart below, the XNJ is the industrials sector. Along with this sector and others like Health and Technology, these sectors are driving the market, not banks and not many of the Gorilla mum and dad stocks of old.
This weeks price action is arguably more negative than last weeks, however it was on small volume indicating sellers are not dominating. Volumes indicators are conflicting, the faster moving 13 period CMF is looking negative but the slower moving OBV is holding up. I was reminding myself this morning uptrends can last a lot longer than thought and surprise many, The US market continues to rise and we will follow despite the "expected" fall that may come here in the Aussie market. As hard as it is psychologically the best thing to do is stick to your system/method. Remember too the XAO is dominated by the financial sector, I encourage you to look at sectors like resources, health and particularly technology, where you will see more strength than what is displayed above. However investors mindset is often influenced by the overall market, the reason I display this chart with comments.
It was the most bearish week we have had since the recovery. The market fell below the lows of the last 3 bars, but it closed up quite strongly towards the end of the week. There is no warning sign yet from the volume indicators, one weeks price action does not make a downturn. At the moment (and that is all we have the present moment) the market is taking a breath. It's good to see because the more this market rallied up hard the greater the chance of a sell off to compensate. Trend traders hold your nerve.
Another good week for the systems. The eBook rose around 1% and so did Peters Portfolio which will be posted on Mondays close. It's looking like a classic V shaped recovery on the chart above. I spoke to a few trading clients this week that have been doing very well the last few years, why? They stuck to their system. My mantra remains the same, the two reasons traders fail is they don't have a method, if they do have one they don't stick to it. The technical side of trading is easy, the mental side is hard, thats why you need a method that suits YOU, your objectives and personality. Developing that system for you is my job. Good luck next week.
Everyone is waiting for a pullback but we may not get one until this market reaches the highs set in August 2018. Then we still may not get a pullback.........its why I always say prediction is so difficult. Remember always that this index is often governed by the dominant stocks of finance and resources, mid cap stocks can power along without really affecting the look of the XAO. The index fell a little this week but the eBook stocks continued to rise, as did Peters Potfolio which will be published after Mondays close. This market continues to look strong, volume indicators are not weakening and there were a good number of new 52 week closing highs this week. Last week there were only a few, suggesting things were slowing but this week shows strength again with more new signals. TLS being a notable signal.
Is the market finally taking a pause? Not a lot of change this week. The OBV continues up but the CMF points a little down, price is flat. Next week will be interesting. Both the eBook system and Peters Portfolio had a good week rising 1.5%.
I have made a change to when I publish Peters Portfolio. It will now be published Monday nights to show the stocks bought and sold on that day as the majority of my buying and selling is done on a Monday. Thank you to those that logged in on Thursday night to the webinar. I may have missed some of your questions whilst I focused on the presentation. If so feel free to email me if you have any questions about the content discussed.
As most people following technical analysis will say, the market looks over bought. Many signals are flashing warning, perhaps not so much for a fall but a slow down at least. The confusing thing is that I have agressive momentum systems that are signalling to buy the market. The chart above shows a negative divergence on the CMF between price and volume, this does not mean to say the index will fall or crash, but it is an indication (and that's all indicators are, indications) that perhaps the bulls are becoming less commited after the recent big rally. It makes sense as markets do not rise in a straight line forever, but this market is strong and could go on to meet the highs made back in August 18 sooner than later. So what to do? As usual it comes down to following the method you have selected to suit your mindset and objectives. (if you don't have a method get one) The eBook system has had a stellar run since entering the market again 6 weeks ago, putting on almost 9% from its cash out lows. Going into March portfolios will now be supported with coming dividend payments. Will the index of the XAO looking overbought slow the strong trending stocks? I am not sure it will but time will tell.
The index takes a breath. But its a misleading chart because its dominated by the financials which fell this week. Many stocks continue to rocket as is indicated by the rally in the eBook system this week as well as the good performance of Peters Portfolio, the small and mid cap system . For example look at the chart below of the materials sector, a sector without the financials. A much stronger looking chart and the volume indicators confirming the upmove. However we dont need to do sector analysis too much, the 52 week highs will tell us where the strength is. That's why you havn't seen a 52 week high in many banks because they lack strength. Trend trading is about buying strength and selling weakness. Simple.
Well. It goes to show you should follow the trend. A big week and those that had the courage to buy a few weeks ago when the signals came are being rewarded. The OBV has kicked up but the CMF lags a little, a big volume bar though supports the bullish move up. I notice many comapnies are reporting strong results indicating the long term bull market has perhaps legs yet. Its been quite a recovery from the lows only 7 weeks ago indicating how oversold the market was. For many traders they will be feeling confused and frustrated as the fear of loss is replaced with the fear of missing out. If thats one of you I suggest you work on getting a good method...........and sticking to it.
This week volume is up but price slightly down. To me (and each persons view is subjective) the chart above shows uncertainty and reserve. The US SP500 has now reached the 61.8 Fibonacci level of around 2700 points surpassing the 50% point. I have never been a fan of Fibonacci however many traders put great store in it perhaps making it a self fulfilling prophecy. The markets have had a strong rally off its lows, a pause, consolidation or drop back is due. However if this does happen, and it might not, this may not stop the strong trending stocks from still out performing, which of course is the whole idea of trend trading as we hopefully position ourselves in only those stocks that are rising.....and have a good probability of continuing to do so.
The recovery on the Aussie market continues. The US market did have a pause this week(but I write this with one more trading day to go in the U.S. for this week). Volume on the XAO has picked up, as can be seen by the volume bar plus the CMF has now broken its down trend line to the upside. However the OBV is not confirming the rally, still flatlining despite the price rising. Its not a big concern but an indication that buyesr are still cautious not convinced this is a recovery but a bear market rally. The eBook system will be all in next week, my own portfolio is flatlining as I wait for my systems mid cap bull filter to kick in, as it has not done so. The recovery is more in the top 300 so far. I have taken the time out to do some more testing and developing on monthly systems, and prepare for the Feb lecture at the ATAA in Sydney.
The XAO has another rally this week on lowish volume. Investors are cautiously buying back in although some stocks are rocketing as can be seen by looking at the charts of the 52 week high signals above. Looking at the US market (chart below of the SP500) one would think a pause would happen soon now that it has pulled back up over 50% from the low to the high. The problem is that's a subjective statement and no one knows what will happen.....however we do have probability to work with which is the best tool. The challenge with trading is following your system, experienced traders know that. So is this a recovery in a bull market or a bear market rally? I think it's the former and time will tell.
Ok. The rally I suggested last week has come and the eBook filter is in buy mode. I posted some extra comments about the eBook above this XAO chart, I suggest you read it if you have not done so. Volume is low this week. I am not sure if this is because some investors/traders are still in holiday mode or if there is another reason. OBV has broken a short term trendline to the upside but I wouldnt get too excited about that. The CMF looks postive but yet to break its downtrend line. Despite what we read into the chart above (and we will all see something different) the fact is the eBook system is saying buy. If you are following this method its challenging emotionally to buy after the pullback of the last few months. However if you have chosen to trade a mechanical system, its part of the commitment.
My system in Peters Portfolio trades a slower Bull filter. It has not yet given a signal to buy. Now...this is not because my system is "better" than the eBook. It's because I have been trading that filter for many years and I do not want to change it. Regular readers will know my philosophy of pick a system and stick to it!
Post holiday trading returns to normal next week, the past 2 weeks have been reduced volume so price action could be regarded as less telling. A good week could put the XAO back in buy mode if it can cross above the eBook Bull filter moving average marked in red. The filter has kept many from buying for 14 weeks now, as the market goes through its correction. I seem to be the only one not calling this a bear market. Until long term trendlines are broken to the downside I still see this as a correction. Looking at a daily chart of the US market (posted below) I notice it has made a short term technical breakout to the upside, next week will be interesting, a big rally would not surprise me.
The XAO fell to the 5500 area I had been talking about for weeks, in fact it hit 5478 as the low. Very low volumes because of the holiday break (only 3 days trading) but price action is significant. US markets bounced off long term monthly trend lines I talked about in my last newsletter. Click on the link below if you missed it. This may be the start of consolidation before the next rise, or it could be a pause in the falling. Its wait and see and let the market tell us what the future holds.
The XAO has reached the 5500 level I have been talking about for some time, US markets are on long term support lines too like our local market is. This market looks oversold to me, volumes still look supportive long term as shown by the trendline of the OBV. It has come back to the breakout area it had a few years ago. The breakout that started the euphoric stage that is now correcting. Try and remember (always) that markets are driven by emotion more than fundamentals or technicals. Attempt to detach from your pain and look at whats happening in a removed state of mind. You will see it all so much more clearly.
The above chart was posted after 2 days trading of the week, so I posted in on the 19/12/18 before Wednesdays trading. However not a lot has changed from last week.
has now broken its short term trend line to the downside. Longer term the market looks well, we just have to sit out this correction.
however with the continual falling of the US markets our market wont go anywhere. In fact we may visit 5500 sooner than later.
support. Its wait and see.
week CMF indicator looks stronger, its a slower moving indicator, however it does show good support in the longer term.
more falls. Lets look at the 2nd chart.
to fall below the trendline at 5400 for a bear market to really take hold. Scroll below for the 3rd chart.
so this positive looking daily chart could produce a strong performance next week in the US.
closely to this index and if it holds up ours should too.
this week, a good sign confidence is returning.
heads and trade your method. No one knows.
up, with the long term blue trend line still rising.
sellers seem non commited, now let's look at the weekly chart.
thing as always, is stick to YOUR plan.
last week, click on the link from last weeks comments below, to access it.
Tonight I sent a newsletter, you can read it here.
volume indicators above on the chart look very strong, this could be the correction we had to have before the next rally.
always someone worse off than yourself! Last week the Bull filter worked a treat, not allowing any buying before the big fall.
particularly those without solid rules. Peter's Portfolio rose a little, around 0.4%, it will be posted on the site in a day or two.
It's up 20.5% in 11 months, which is line with the back testing. It's always heartening to see portfolios perform in line with the testing.
would be competing for the same buys and sells, limiting opportunity. Whatever system you trade it takes patience and discipline.
Keep good records, execute the process to the best of your ability. Until next week. Peter.
system is still saying step aside and wait. Very few new 52 week highs this week as the market rally takes a breather.
Peters Portfolio had a good week, making a new equity high and rising around 2.5% helped along by some dividends.
this week, a main contributor being NST with its merger announcement.
This week its the Mid Caps that rallied. As I said last week the market seems strong across the board. Trade your system.
Stick to the rules, get out of way, and let the market and your method do its thing!
This week was another indication of how the XAO can be a deceiving index as to what's really going on in the market.
19 stocks this week in the top 500 making a new closing 52 week high, thats a lot, indicating the breadth of this market.
had a strong week, a benefit of the fact it is dominated by small and mid caps with good fundamentals.
a few weeks. The market looks strong again, indicated by a large number of 52 week highs (12 in the top 500) this week.
The All Ords continues to track sideways. This was the 5th week that the index found resistance around the 6400 area.
The OBV indicator is suggesting higher prices, the CMF appears positive too. The strategy is trade your system and be patient.
Higher prices will come, this is a traditional slow time of year before the market often rallies into Xmas.
The market backs off a little this week but its not telling us much. Stick to the system is the best option.
weakness. The old market highs pre GFC are really not that far away (around 470 points or a little over 7% away).
We could be there by Christmas.
and large volume coming into the market in May and June.
relocated into other sectors. Peters Portfolio got whacked again this week with the fall in ELD.
fundamentally well is punished and MTS and HSN are recent victims.