NHESS, 22, 559–575, 2022
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022
Research article | 21 Feb 2022
Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK
Matthew C. Perry et al.
Show only first author papers Show all papers
Using high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event set
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Correcting a bias in a climate model with an augmented emulator
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Richard Betts, Ben Booth, Peter Challenor, Peter Good, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2487–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, 2020
In the climate model FAMOUS, matching the modelled Amazon rainforest to observations required different land surface parameter settings than for other forests. It was unclear if this discrepancy was due to a bias in the modelled climate or an error in the land surface component of the model. Correcting the climate of the model with a statistical model corrects the simulation of the Amazon forest, suggesting that the land surface component of the model is not the source of the discrepancy.
Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation
Sihan Li, David E. Rupp, Linnia Hawkins, Philip W. Mote, Doug McNeall, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Richard A. Betts, and Justin J. Wettstein
Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many of which have regional biases larger than the expected climate signal over the next half-century. This work shows the potential for improving climate model simulations through a multiphased parameter refinement approach. Regional warm biases are substantially reduced, suggesting this iterative approach is one path to improving climate models and simulations of present and future climate.
Representation of fire, land-use change and vegetation dynamics in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn4.9 (JULES)
Chantelle Burton, Richard Betts, Manoel Cardoso, Ted R. Feldpausch, Anna Harper, Chris D. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019
Fire and land-use change are important disturbances within the Earth system, and their inclusion in models is critical to enable the correct simulation of vegetation cover. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES to represent explicit land-use change and fire and to assess the effects of each process on present day vegetation compared to observations. Using historical land-use data and the fire model INFERNO, overall model results are improved by the developments.
Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods
Stephan Harrison, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Christian Huggel, John Reynolds, Dan H. Shugar, Richard A. Betts, Adam Emmer, Neil Glasser, Umesh K. Haritashya, Jan Klimeš, Liam Reinhardt, Yvonne Schaub, Andy Wiltshire, Dhananjay Regmi, and Vít Vilímek
The Cryosphere, 12, 1195–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018, 2018
Most mountain glaciers have receded throughout the last century in response to global climate change. This recession produces a range of natural hazards including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have produced the first global inventory of GLOFs associated with the failure of moraine dams and show, counterintuitively, that these have reduced in frequency over recent decades. In this paper we explore the reasons for this pattern.
Global Carbon Budget 2017
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Franziska Piontek, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Jacob Schewe, Lila Warszawski, Fang Zhao, Louise Chini, Sebastien Denvil, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, Kate Halladay, George Hurtt, Matthias Mengel, Daisuke Murakami, Sebastian Ostberg, Alexander Popp, Riccardo Riva, Miodrag Stevanovic, Tatsuo Suzuki, Jan Volkholz, Eleanor Burke, Philippe Ciais, Kristie Ebi, Tyler D. Eddy, Joshua Elliott, Eric Galbraith, Simon N. Gosling, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Jochen Hinkel, Christian Hof, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Valentina Krysanova, Rafael Marcé, Hannes Müller Schmied, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Don Pierson, Derek P. Tittensor, Robert Vautard, Michelle van Vliet, Matthias F. Biber, Richard A. Betts, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Delphine Deryng, Steve Frolking, Chris D. Jones, Heike K. Lotze, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ritvik Sahajpal, Kirsten Thonicke, Hanqin Tian, and Yoshiki Yamagata
This paper describes the simulation scenario design for the next phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is designed to facilitate a contribution to the scientific basis for the IPCC Special Report on the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming. ISIMIP brings together over 80 climate-impact models, covering impacts on hydrology, biomes, forests, heat-related mortality, permafrost, tropical cyclones, fisheries, agiculture, energy, and coastal infrastructure.
The impact of structural error on parameter constraint in a climate model
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Ben Booth, Richard Betts, Peter Challenor, Andy Wiltshire, and David Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, 2016
We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model. We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon. We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative
B. Poulter, N. MacBean, A. Hartley, I. Khlystova, O. Arino, R. Betts, S. Bontemps, M. Boettcher, C. Brockmann, P. Defourny, S. Hagemann, M. Herold, G. Kirches, C. Lamarche, D. Lederer, C. Ottlé, M. Peters, and P. Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015
Land cover is an essential variable in earth system models and determines conditions driving biogeochemical, energy and water exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere. A methodology is presented for mapping plant functional types used in global vegetation models from a updated land cover classification system and open-source conversion tool, resulting from a consultative process among map producers and modelers engaged in the European Space Agency's Land Cover Climate Change Initiative.
JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator
T. Osborne, J. Gornall, J. Hooker, K. Williams, A. Wiltshire, R. Betts, and T. Wheeler
Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways
R. A. Betts, N. Golding, P. Gonzalez, J. Gornall, R. Kahana, G. Kay, L. Mitchell, and A. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 12, 1317–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, 2015
Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP
J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. Wisser, D. B. Clark, A. Ito, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, Y. Wada, X. Liu, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, S. N. Gosling, W. Franssen, and N. Arnell
More articles (7)
Related subject area
Other Hazards (e.g., Glacial and Snow Hazards, Karst, Wildfires Hazards, and Medical Geo-Hazards)
Coupling wildfire spread simulations and connectivity analysis for hazard assessment: a case study in Serra da Cabreira, Portugal
Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Akli Benali, Chiara Bruni, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Pereira, Alfredo Rocha, and José Pereira
Assessing landscape wildfire connectivity supported by wildfire spread simulations can improve fire hazard assessment and fuel management plans. Weather severity determines the degree of fuel patch connectivity and thus the potential to spread large and intense wildfires. Mapping highly connected patches in the landscape highlights patch candidates for prior fuel treatments, which ultimately will contribute to creating fire-resilient Mediterranean landscapes.
Glacial lake outburst flood hazard under current and future conditions: worst-case scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
What weather variables are important for wet and slab avalanches under a changing climate in a low-altitude mountain range in Czechia?
Markéta Součková, Roman Juras, Kryštof Dytrt, Vojtěch Moravec, Johanna Ruth Blöcher, and Martin Hanel
Avalanches are natural hazards that threaten people and infrastructure. With climate change, avalanche activity is changing. We analysed the change in frequency and size of avalanches in the Krkonoše Mountains, Czechia, and detected important variables with machine learning tools from 1979–2020. Wet avalanches in February and March have increased, and slab avalanches have decreased and become smaller. The identified variables and their threshold levels may help in avalanche decision-making.
Modelling ignition probability for human- and lightning-caused wildfires in Victoria, Australia
Annalie Dorph, Erica Marshall, Kate A. Parkins, and Trent D. Penman
Wildfire spatial patterns are determined by fire ignition sources and vegetation fuel moisture. Fire ignitions can be mediated by humans (owing to proximity to human infrastructure) or caused by lightning (owing to fuel moisture, average annual rainfall and local weather). When moisture in dead vegetation is below 20 % the probability of a wildfire increases. The results of this research enable accurate spatial mapping of ignition probability to aid fire suppression efforts and future research.
Automated snow avalanche release area delineation in data-sparse, remote, and forested regions
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
The 2017 Split wildfire in Croatia: evolution and the role of meteorological conditions
Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Kevin K. W. Cheung, Višnjica Vučetić, Paul Fox-Hughes, Kristian Horvath, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Paul J. Beggs, Barbara Malečić, and Velimir Milić
One of the most severe and impactful urban wildfire events in Croatian history has been reconstructed and analyzed. The study identified some important meteorological influences related to the event: the synoptic conditions of the Azores anticyclone, cold front, and upper-level shortwave trough all led to the highest fire weather index in 2017. A low-level jet, locally known as bura wind that can be explained by hydraulic jump theory, was the dynamic trigger of the event.
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Global assessment and mapping of ecological vulnerability to wildfires
Fátima Arrogante-Funes, Inmaculada Aguado, and Emilio Chuvieco
We show that ecological value might be reduced by 50 % due to fire perturbation in ecosystems that have not developed in the presence of fire and/or that present changes in the fire regime. The biomes most affected are tropical and subtropical forests, tundra, and mangroves. Integration of biotic and abiotic fire regime and regeneration factors resulted in a powerful way to map ecological vulnerability to fire and develop assessments to generate adaptation plans of management in forest masses.
The impact of terrain model source and resolution on snow avalanche modeling
Aubrey Miller, Pascal Sirguey, Simon Morris, Perry Bartelt, Nicolas Cullen, Todd Redpath, Kevin Thompson, and Yves Bühler
Natural hazard modelers simulate mass movements to better anticipate the risk to people and infrastructure. These simulations require accurate digital elevation models. We test the sensitivity of a well-established snow avalanche model (RAMMS) to the source and spatial resolution of the elevation model. We find key differences in the digital representation of terrain greatly affect the simulated avalanche results, with implications for hazard planning.
Travel and terrain advice statements in public avalanche bulletins: a quantitative analysis of who uses this information, what makes it useful, and how it can be improved for users
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Data-driven automated predictions of the avalanche danger level for dry-snow conditions in Switzerland
Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Frank Techel, Martin Hendrick, Michele Volpi, Alec van Herwijnen, Tasko Olevski, Guillaume Obozinski, Fernando Pérez-Cruz, and Jürg Schweizer
A fully data-driven approach to predicting the danger level for dry-snow avalanche conditions in Switzerland was developed. Two classifiers were trained using a large database of meteorological data, snow cover simulations, and danger levels. The models performed well throughout the Swiss Alps, reaching a performance similar to the current experience-based avalanche forecasts. This approach shows the potential to be a valuable supplementary decision support tool for assessing avalanche hazard.
Statistical modelling of air quality impacts from 1500 individual forest fires in NSW, Australia
Michael A. Storey and Owen F. Price
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-345,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-345, 2022
Models are needed to understand and predict pollutant output from forest fires so fire agencies can reduce smoke-related risks to human health. We modelled air quality (PM2.5) based on fire area and weather variables. We found fire area and boundary layer height were influential predictors, with distance, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity also important. The model predicted reasonably accurately in comparison to other existing methods, but would benefit from further development.
On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger
Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler
Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.
Automated avalanche hazard indication mapping on a statewide scale
Yves Bühler, Peter Bebi, Marc Christen, Stefan Margreth, Lukas Stoffel, Andreas Stoffel, Christoph Marty, Gregor Schmucki, Andrin Caviezel, Roderick Kühne, Stephan Wohlwend, and Perry Bartelt
To calculate and visualize the potential avalanche hazard, we develop a method that automatically and efficiently pinpoints avalanche starting zones and simulate their runout for the entire canton of Grisons. The maps produced in this way highlight areas that could be endangered by avalanches and are extremely useful in multiple applications for the cantonal authorities, including the planning of new infrastructure, making alpine regions more safe.
Forecasting the regional fire radiative power for regularly ignited vegetation fires
Tero M. Partanen and Mikhail Sofiev
The presented method aims to forecast regional wildfire-emitted radiative power in a time-dependent manner several days in advance. The temporal fire radiative power can be converted to an emission production rate, which can be implemented in air quality forecasting simulations. It is shown that in areas with a high incidence of wildfires, the fire radiative power is quite predictable, but otherwise it is not.
Environmental factors affecting wildfire-burned areas in southeastern France, 1970–2019
Christos Bountzouklis, Dennis M. Fox, and Elena Di Bernardino
The study addresses the evolution of burned areas in southeastern France from 1970 to 2019 through the scope of a firefighting policy shift in 1994 that resulted in a significant decrease in the burned area. Regions with large fires were particularly impacted, whereas, in other areas, the fires remained frequent and occurred closer to built-up zones. Environmental characteristics such as south-facing slopes and low vegetation (bushes) are increasingly associated with burned areas.
Detrainment and braking of snow avalanches interacting with forests
Louis Védrine, Xingyue Li, and Johan Gaume
This study investigates how forests affect the behaviour of snow avalanches through the evaluation of the amount of snow stopped by the trees and the analysis of energy dissipation mechanisms. Different avalanche features and tree configurations have been examined, leading to the proposal of a unified law for the detrained snow mass. Outcomes from this study can be directly implemented in operational models for avalanche risk assessment and contribute to improved forest management strategy.
Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification
Philip A. Ebert and Peter Milne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 539–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022, 2022
There is no consensus about how to assess the quality of binary (yes or no) rare and severe event forecasts, i.e. forecasts involving natural hazards like tornadoes or avalanches. We offer a comprehensive overview of the challenges we face when making such an assessment and provide a critical review of existing solutions. We argue against all but one existing solution to assess the quality of such forecasts and present practical consequences to improve forecasting services.
Multi-method monitoring of rockfall activity along the classic route up Mont Blanc (4809 m a.s.l.) to encourage adaptation by mountaineers
Jacques Mourey, Pascal Lacroix, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Guilhem Marsy, Marco Marcer, Emmanuel Malet, and Ludovic Ravanel
More frequent rockfalls in high alpine environments due to climate change are a growing threat to mountaineers. This hazard is particularly important on the classic route up Mont Blanc. Our results show that rockfalls are most frequent during snowmelt periods and the warmest hours of the day, and that mountaineers do not adapt to the local rockfall hazard when planning their ascent. Disseminating the knowledge acquired from our study caused management measures to be implemented for the route.
Wildfire–atmosphere interaction index for extreme-fire behaviour
Tomàs Artés, Marc Castellnou, Tracy Houston Durrant, and Jesús San-Miguel
During the last 20 years extreme wildfires have challenged firefighting capabilities. Several fire danger indices are routinely used by firefighting services but are not suited to forecast convective extreme wildfire behaviour at the global scale. This article proposes a new fire danger index for deep moist convection, the extreme-fire behaviour index (EFBI), based on the analysis of the vertical profiles of the atmosphere above wildfires to use along with traditional fire danger indices.
How is avalanche danger described in textual descriptions in avalanche forecasts in Switzerland? Consistency between forecasters and avalanche danger
Veronika Hutter, Frank Techel, and Ross S. Purves
How is avalanche danger described in public avalanche forecasts? We analyzed 6000 textual descriptions of avalanche danger in Switzerland, taking the perspective of the forecaster. Avalanche danger was described rather consistently, although the results highlight the difficulty of communicating conditions that are neither rare nor frequent, neither small nor large. The study may help to refine the ways in which avalanche danger could be communicated to the public.
A data-driven prediction model for Fennoscandian wildfires
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-384,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-384, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia, and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Fire Weather Index. We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Data-based wildfire risk model for Mediterranean ecosystems – case study of the Concepción metropolitan area in central Chile
Edilia Jaque Castillo, Alfonso Fernández, Rodrigo Fuentes Robles, and Carolina G. Ojeda
Wildfires pose risks to lives and livelihoods in many regions of the world. Particularly in Chile's central-south region, climate change, widespread land use change, and urban growth tend to increase the likelihood of fire occurrence. Our work focused on the Concepción metropolitan area, where we developed a model using machine learning in order to map wildfire risks. We found that the interface between urban areas and forestry plantations presents the highest risks.
The mud volcanoes at Santa Barbara and Aragona (Sicily, Italy): a contribution to risk assessment
Alessandro Gattuso, Francesco Italiano, Giorgio Capasso, Antonino D'Alessandro, Fausto Grassa, Antonino Fabio Pisciotta, and Davide Romano
Santa Barbara and Aragona are affected by mud volcanism with episodic hazardous paroxysm events. Two potentially hazardous paroxysm exposed surfaces of 0.12 and 0.20 km2 were elaborated with DSMs and with historical information on the paroxysms that occurred in the past. This paper, in the end, could be a useful tool for civil protection authorities in order to take appropriate risk mitigation measurements for exposed people and for monitoring activities.
Impact of information presentation on interpretability of spatial hazard information: lessons from a study in avalanche safety
Avalanche warning services publish condition reports to help backcountry recreationists make informed decisions about when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. We tested how different graphic representations of terrain information can affect users' ability to interpret and apply the provided information. Our study shows that a combined presentation of aspect and elevation information is the most effective. These results can be used to improve avalanche risk communication products.
ABWiSE v1.0: toward an agent-based approach to simulating wildfire spread
Jeffrey Katan and Liliana Perez
Wildfires are an integral part of ecosystems worldwide, but they also pose a serious risk to human life and property. To further our understanding of wildfires and allow experimentation without recourse to live fires, this study presents an agent-based modelling approach to combine the complexity possible with physical models with the ease of computation of empirical models. Model calibration and validation show bottom-up simulation tracks the core elements of complexity of fire across scales.
Multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains: remote sensing observations and detachment hazard assessment
Xiaowen Wang, Lin Liu, Yan Hu, Tonghua Wu, Lin Zhao, Qiao Liu, Rui Zhang, Bo Zhang, and Guoxiang Liu
We characterized the multi-decadal geomorphic changes of a low-angle valley glacier in the East Kunlun Mountains and assessed the detachment hazard influence. The observations reveal a slow surge-like dynamic pattern of the glacier tongue. The maximum runout distances of two endmember avalanche scenarios were presented. This study provides a reference to evaluate the runout hazards of low-angle mountain glaciers prone to detachment.
Spatial and temporal subsidence characteristics in Wuhan (China), during 2015–2019, inferred from Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry
Xuguo Shi, Shaocheng Zhang, Mi Jiang, Yuanyuan Pei, Tengteng Qu, Jinhu Xu, and Chen Yang
We mapped the subsidence of Wuhan using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired during 2015–2019. Overall subsidence coincides with the distribution of engineered geological regions with soft soils, while the subsidence centers shifted with urban construction activities. Correlation between karst subsidence and concentrated rainfall was identified in Qingling–Jiangdi. Results indicate that interferometric SAR can be employed to routinely monitor and identify geohazards.
Formation, evolution, and drainage of short-lived glacial lakes in permafrost environments of the northern Teskey Range, Central Asia
Mirlan Daiyrov and Chiyuki Narama
In the Teskey Range of the Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Republic), four outburst flood disasters from short-lived glacial lakes in 2006, 2008, 2013, and 2014 caused severe damages in the downstream part. Short-lived glacial lakes grow rapidly and drain within a few months, due to closure and opening of an outlet ice tunnel in an ice-cored moraine complex at the glacier front. We investigated how short-lived glacial lakes store and drain water over short periods based on field survey and satellite data.
Spatial variability in the relation between fire weather and burned area: patterns and drivers in Portugal
Tomás Calheiros, Akli Benali, João Neves Silva, Mário Pereira, and João Pedro Nunes
Fire weather indices are used to assess the effect of weather on wildfires and are strongly related to burnt area in Portugal. Fire weather risk was computed and combined with large wildfires. Results revealed the influence of vegetation cover: municipalities with prevalence of shrublands, located in eastern parts, burnt with less extreme conditions than those with higher forested areas, situated in coastal regions. These findings can support better prevention and fire suppression planning.
Towards a compound-event-oriented climate model evaluation: a decomposition of the underlying biases in multivariate fire and heat stress hazards
Roberto Villalobos-Herrera, Emanuele Bevacqua, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Graeme Auld, Laura Crocetti, Bilyana Mircheva, Minh Ha, Jakob Zscheischler, and Carlo De Michele
Climate hazards may be caused by events which have multiple drivers. Here we present a method to break down climate model biases in hazard indicators down to the bias caused by each driving variable. Using simplified fire and heat stress indicators driven by temperature and relative humidity as examples, we show how multivariate indicators may have complex biases and that the relationship between driving variables is a source of bias that must be considered in climate model bias corrections.
Equivalent Hazard Magnitude Scale
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-87,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-87, 2021
In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the natural strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquake, tsunami, flood, drought, forest fire, tornado, cold wave, heat wave, and tropical cyclone. With our method, as an example, we can compute that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
Assessing the effect of lithological setting, block characteristics and slope topography on the runout length of rockfalls in the Alps and on the island of La Réunion
Kerstin Wegner, Florian Haas, Tobias Heckmann, Anne Mangeney, Virginie Durand, Nicolas Villeneuve, Philippe Kowalski, Aline Peltier, and Michael Becht
In mountainous regions rockfall is a common geomorphic process. We selected four study sites that feature different rock types. High-resolution terrestrial laser scanning data were acquired to measure the block size and block shape (axial ratio) of rockfall particles on the scree deposits. Laser scanning data were also used to characterize the morphology of these landforms. Our results show that hill slope and rock particle properties govern rock particle runout in a complex manner.
Evolution of surface deformation related to salt-extraction-caused sinkholes in Solotvyno (Ukraine) revealed by Sentinel-1 radar interferometry
Eszter Szűcs, Sándor Gönczy, István Bozsó, László Bányai, Alexandru Szakacs, Csilla Szárnya, and Viktor Wesztergom
Sinkhole formation and post-collapse deformation in the Solotvyno salt mining area was studied where the salt dissolution due to water intrusion poses a significant risk. Based on a Sentinel-1 data set, remarkable surface deformation with a maximum rate of 5 cm/yr was revealed, and it was demonstrated that the deformation process has a linear characteristic although the mining activity was ended more than 10 years ago.
Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with deep persistent slab avalanches in the western United States
Andrew R. Schauer, Jordy Hendrikx, Karl W. Birkeland, and Cary J. Mock
Our research links upper atmospheric circulation patterns to a destructive and difficult-to-predict type of snow avalanche in the western United States. At each of our study sites, we find unique circulation patterns that tend to occur at the beginning of the winter season during years with major avalanche activity. We also find specific patterns that occur frequently in the days leading to major avalanche events. This work will enable practitioners to better anticipate these challenging events.
A regional spatiotemporal analysis of large magnitude snow avalanches using tree rings
Erich Peitzsch, Jordy Hendrikx, Daniel Stahle, Gregory Pederson, Karl Birkeland, and Daniel Fagre
We sampled 647 trees from 12 avalanche paths to investigate large snow avalanches over the past 400 years in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Sizable avalanches occur approximately every 3 years across the region. Our results emphasize the importance of sample size, scale, and spatial extent when reconstructing avalanche occurrence across a region. This work can be used for infrastructure planning and avalanche forecasting operations.
Examining the operational use of avalanche problems with decision trees and model-generated weather and snowpack variables
Simon Horton, Moses Towell, and Pascal Haegeli
We investigate patterns in how avalanche forecasters characterize snow avalanche hazard with avalanche problem types. Decision tree analysis was used to investigate both physical influences based on weather and on snowpack variables and operational practices. The results highlight challenges with developing decision aids based on previous hazard assessments.
A classification scheme to determine wildfires from the satellite record in the cool grasslands of southern Canada: considerations for fire occurrence modelling and warning criteria
Dan K. Thompson and Kimberly Morrison
We describe critically low relative humidity and high wind speeds above which only documented wildfires were seen to occur and where no agricultural fires were documented in southern Canada. We then applied these thresholds to the much larger satellite record from 2002–2018 to quantify regional differences in both the rate of observed burning and the number of days with critical weather conditions to sustain a wildfire in this grassland and agricultural region.
Assessments of land subsidence along the Rizhao–Lankao high-speed railway at Heze, China, between 2015 and 2019 with Sentinel-1 data
Chuanguang Zhu, Wenhao Wu, Mahdi Motagh, Liya Zhang, Zongli Jiang, and Sichun Long
We investigate the contemporary ground deformation along the RLHR-HZ using Sentinel-1 data and find that the RLHR-HZ runs through two main subsidence areas. A total length of 35 km of the RLSR-HZ is affected by the two subsidence basins. Considering the previous investigation coupled with information on human activities, we conclude that the subsidence is mainly caused by extraction of groundwater and underground mining.
Tailings-flow runout analysis: examining the applicability of a semi-physical area–volume relationship using a novel database
Negar Ghahramani, Andrew Mitchell, Nahyan M. Rana, Scott McDougall, Stephen G. Evans, and W. Andy Take
Tailings flows result from the breach of tailings dams. These flows contain waste products of the mineral processing operations and can travel substantial distances, causing significant loss of life, environmental damage, and economic costs. This paper establishes a new tailings-flow runout classification system, describes a new database of events that have been mapped in detail using the new system, and examines the applicability of a semi-physical area–volume relationship using the new data.
Experimental assessment of the relationship between rainfall intensity and sinkholes caused by damaged sewer pipes
Tae-Young Kwak, Sang-Inn Woo, Choong-Ki Chung, and Joonyoung Kim
In this study, model tests were used to analyze the effects of rainfall intensity on the formation of the eroded zone and the occurrence of sinkholes due to groundwater infiltration through pipe defects. The model tests were conducted to simulate the actual site conditions considering the soil used around sewer pipe networks and the sewer pipe landfill standards. The groundwater level was applied to the model tests by setting three hydraulic heads based on heavy-rainfall characteristics.
Non-stationary extreme value analysis of ground snow loads in the French Alps: a comparison with building standards
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
To minimize the risk of structure collapse due to extreme snow loads, structure standards rely on 50-year return levels of ground snow load (GSL), i.e. levels exceeded once every 50 years on average, that do not account for climate change. We study GSL data in the French Alps massifs from 1959 and 2019 and find that these 50-year return levels are decreasing with time between 900 and 4800 m of altitude, but they still exceed return levels of structure standards for half of the massifs at 1800 m.
Sensitivity of modeled snow stability data to meteorological input uncertainty
Bettina Richter, Alec van Herwijnen, Mathias W. Rotach, and Jürg Schweizer
We investigated the sensitivity of modeled snow instability to uncertainties in meteorological input, typically found in complex terrain. The formation of the weak layer was very robust due to the long dry period, indicated by a widespread avalanche problem. Once a weak layer has formed, precipitation mostly determined slab and weak layer properties and hence snow instability. When spatially assessing snow instability for avalanche forecasting, accurate precipitation patterns have to be known.
Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system
Francesca Di Giuseppe, Claudia Vitolo, Blazej Krzeminski, Christopher Barnard, Pedro Maciel, and Jesús San-Miguel
Forecasting of daily fire weather indices driven by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is shown to have a good skill up to 10 d ahead in predicting flammable conditions in most regions of the world. The availability of these forecasts through the Copernicus Emergency Management Service can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries.
The 1958 Lituya Bay tsunami – pre-event bathymetry reconstruction and 3D numerical modelling utilising the computational fluid dynamics software Flow-3D
Andrea Franco, Jasper Moernaut, Barbara Schneider-Muntau, Michael Strasser, and Bernhard Gems
This study highlights the use of the software Flow-3D in reproducing landslide-generated impulse waves. Due to the available data and the possibility of comparing the results with other previous works, a numerical modelling investigation on the 1958 Lituya Bay tsunami event is proposed. It is noted that the rockslide impact into the waterbody has a key role in the wave initiation and thus its propagation. The concept used in this work can be applied to prevent such phenomena in future.
On snow stability interpretation of extended column test results
Frank Techel, Kurt Winkler, Matthias Walcher, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
Snow instability tests, like the extended column test (ECT), provide valuable information regarding point snow instability. A large data set of ECT – together with information on slope instability – was explored. The findings clearly show that combining information regarding propagation propensity and fracture initiation provided the best correlation with slope instability. A new four-class stability interpretation scheme is proposed for ECT results.
Snow avalanche detection and mapping in multitemporal and multiorbital radar images from TerraSAR-X and Sentinel-1
Silvan Leinss, Raphael Wicki, Sämi Holenstein, Simone Baffelli, and Yves Bühler
To assess snow avalanche mapping with radar satellites in Switzerland, we compare 2 m resolution TerraSAR-X images, 10 m resolution Sentinel-1 images, and optical 1.5 m resolution SPOT-6 images. We found that radar satellites provide a valuable option to map at least larger avalanches, though avalanches are mapped only partially. By combining multiple orbits and polarizations from S1, we achieved mapping results of quality almost comparable to single high-resolution TerraSAR-X images.
Evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus event associated with an extreme wildfire in Tasmania, Australia
Mercy N. Ndalila, Grant J. Williamson, Paul Fox-Hughes, Jason Sharples, and David M. J. S. Bowman
We analyse the evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb), or fire-induced thunderstorm, during the Forcett–Dunalley fire on 4 January 2013 and relate it to the prevailing fire weather and fire severity patterns. We show that the pyroCb reached an altitude of 15 km, was associated with elevated fire weather, and formed over a severely burned area. Additionally, we show that eastern Tasmania is prone to elevated fire weather which has implications for fire weather forecasting and fire management.
Evaluation of Global Fire Weather Database reanalysis and short-term forecast products
Robert D. Field
This paper compares fire weather indices calculated from the NASA MERRA-2 reanlaysis to those calculated from a global network of weather stations, finding that, globally, biases in reanalysis fire weather are influenced firstly by temperature and relative humidity and, in certain regions, by precipitation biases. Fire weather forecasts using short-term NASA GEOS-5 weather forecasts are skillful 2 d ahead of time. This skill decreases more quickly with longer lead times at high latitudes.
More articles (45)
Cited articles
Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019.
Albertson, K., Aylen, J., Cavan, G., and McMorrow, J.: Climate change and the future occurrence of moorland wildfires in the Peak District of the UK, Clim. Res., 45, 105–118, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00926, 2010.
Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Chen, Y., van der Werf, G. R., Kasibhatla, P. S., DeFries, R. S., Collatz, G. J., Hantson, S., Kloster, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Lasslop, G, Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Yue, C., and Randerson, J. T.: A human-driven decline in global burned area, Science, 356, 1356–1362, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4108, 2017.
Arnell, N. W., Freeman, A., and Gazzard, R.: The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 044027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd9f2, 2021.
Bärring, L. and Strandberg, G.: Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 024029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9f72, 2018.
BBC News: Why are there UK wildfires in February?, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47389480 (last access: 12 May 2021), 2019a.
BBC News: Crews' fifth full day fighting wildfire in Sutherland, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-48308196 (last access: 12 May 2021), 2019b.
Belcher, C. M., Brown, I., Clay, G. D., Doerr, S. H., Elliott, A., Gazzard, R., Kettridge, N., Morison, J., Perry, M., Santin, C., and Smith, T.: UK wildfires and their climate challenges, Expert led report prepared for the third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3), UK Climate Risk, https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/independent-assessment-ccra3/research-supporting-analysis/ (last access: 11 February 2022), 2021.
Betts, R. A.: High-end climate change and adaptation. Science for Adaptation Policy Brief 3, The World Adaptation Science Programme (WASP) Secretariat, UNEP, Nairobi, https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34437/WASP3.pdf (last access: 11 February 2022), 2020.
Boschetti, L., Roy, D. P., Giglio, L., Huang, H., Zubkova, M., and Humber, M. K.: Global validation of the collection 6 MODIS burned area product, Remote Sens. Environ., 235, 111490, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111490, 2019.
Brown, I., Thompson, D., Bardgett, R., Berry, P., Crute, I., Morison, J., Morecroft, M., Pinnegar, J., Reeder, T., and Topp, K.: UK climate change risk assessment evidence report: Chapter 3, Natural environment and natural assets, Report prepared for the adaptation sub-committee of the Committee on Climate Change, London, https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA-2017-Chapter-3-Natural-environment-and-natural- assets.pdf (last access: 11 February 2022), 2016.
Burgan, R. E., Klaver, R. W., and Klaver J. M.: Fuel models and fire potential from satellite and surface observations, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 8, 159–170, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF9980159, 1998.
Calheiros, T., Pereira, M. G., and Nunes, J. P.: Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsula, Sci. Total Environ., 754, 142233, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142233, 2021.
Casanueva, A., Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Fernández, J., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Direct and component-wise bias correction of multi-variate climate indices: the percentile adjustment function diagnostic tool, Climatic Change, 147, 411–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2167-5, 2018.
Committee on Climate Change: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. Synthesis Report: Priorities for the next 5 years, Committee on Climate Change, London, https://www.theccc.org.uk/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2017 (last access: 11 February 2022), 2017.
Copernicus: Fire danger indices historical data from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, Climate Data Store [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.0e89c522, 2019 (data available at: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/, last access: 11 February 2022).
Davies, G. M. and Legg, C. J.: Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires, PeerJ, 4, e2649. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.2649, 2016.
Davies, G. M., Gray, A., Hamilton, A., and Legg, C. J.: The future of fire management in the British uplands, Int. J. Biodivers. Sci. Manag., 4, 127–147, https://doi.org/10.3843/Biodiv.4.3:1, 2008.
de Jong, M. C., Wooster, M. J., Kitchen, K., Manley, C., Gazzard, R., and McCall, F. F.: Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1217–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016, 2016.
Deb, P., Moradkhani, H., Abbaszadeh, P., Kiem, A. S., Engström, J., Keelings, D., and Sharma, A.: Causes of the widespread 2019–2020 Australian bushfire season, Earths Future, 8, e2020EF001671, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001671, 2020.
Douville, H., Raghavan, K., Renwick, J., Allan, R. P., Arias, P. A., Barlow, M., Cerezo-Mota, R., Cherchi, A., Gan, T. Y., Gergis, J., Jiang, D., Khan, A., Pokam Mba, W., Rosenfeld, D., Tierney, J., and Zolina, O.: Water cycle changes, in: Climate Change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzall, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (last access: 11 February 2022), 2021.
Finney, D. L., Doherty, R. M., Wild, O., Stevenson, D. S., MacKenzie, I. A., and Blyth, A. M.: A projected decrease in lightning under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 210–213, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6, 2018.
Forestry Commission England: Wildfire statistics for England 2009-10 to 2016–17, Forestry Commission England, Bristol, 60 pp., 2019.
Fung, F., Lowe, J., Mitchell, J. F. B., Murphy, J., Bernie, D., Gohar, L., Harris, G., Howard, T., Kendon, E., Maisey, P., Palmer, M., and Sexton, D.: UKCP18 Guidance: How to use the UKCP18 Land Projections, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, 2018.
Gazzard, R., McMorrow, J., and Aylen, J.: Wildfire policy and management in England: an evolving response from Fire and Rescue Services, forestry and cross-sector groups, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 371, 20150341, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0341, 2016.
Giglio, L., Boschetti, L., Roy, D. P., Humber, M. L., and Justice, C. O.: The Collection 6 MODIS burned area mapping algorithm and product, Remote Sens. Environ., 217, 72–85, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.08.005, 2018 (data available at: https://lpdaacsvc.cr.usgs.gov/appeears/, last access: 11 February 2022).
Gohar, L., Bernie, D., Good, P., and Lowe, J. A.: UKCP18 derived projections of future climate over the UK, Met Office, Exeter, 2018.
Hemingway, R. and Gunawan, O.: The Natural Hazards Partnership: a public-sector collaboration across the UK for natural hazard disaster risk reduction, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 27, 499–511, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.11.014, 2018.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, F., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Humber, M. L., Boschetti, L., Giglio, L., and Justice, C. O.: Spatial and temporal intercomparison of four global burned area products, Int. J. Digit. Earth, 12, 460–484, https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2018.1433727, 2018.
Kitchen, K.: Fire danger class study, Met Office, Exeter, 2010.
Lowe, J. A., Bernie D., Bett P., Bricheno L., Brown S., Calvert D., Clark, R., Eagle, K., Edwards, T., Fosser, G., Fung, F., Gohar, L., Good, P., Gregory, J., Harris, G., Howard, T., Kaye, N., Kendon, E., Krijnen, J., Maisey, P., McDonald, R., McInnes, R., McSweeney, C., Mitchell, J., Murphy, J., Palmer, M., Roberts, C., Rostron, J., Sexton, D., Thornton, H., Tinker, J., Tucker, S., Yamazaki, K., and Belcher, S.: UKCP18 science overview report, Met Office, Exeter, 2018.
Matthews, S., Fox-Hughes, P., Grootemaat, S., Hollis, J. J., Kenny, B. J., and Sauvage, S.: Australian Fire Danger Rating System: research prototype, NSW Rural Fire Service, Lidcombe, NSW, https://www.afac.com.au/docs/default-source/afdrs/afdrs_research_prototype_report_2019.pdf?sfvrsn=6 (last access: 11 February 2022), 2019.
Met Office: The Met Office Fire Severity Index for England and Wales, prepared for the Countryside Agency, Countryside Council for Wales and the Forestry Commission, Met Office, Exeter, 2005.
Met Office: UK temperature, rainfall and sunshine time series, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series (last access: 12 May 2021).
Met Office Hadley Centre: UKCP18 regional projections on a 12 km grid over the UK for 1980–2080, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis [data set], https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/589211abeb844070a95d061c8cc7f604 (last access: 11 February 2022), 2018.
Milne, R. and Brown, T. A.: Carbon in the vegetation and soils of Great Britain, J. Environ. Manage., 49, 413–433, https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.1995.0118, 1997.
Murphy, J. M., Harris, G. R., Sexton, D. M. H., Kendon, E. J., Bett, P. E., Clark, R. T., Eagle, K. E., Fosser, G., Fung, F., Lowe, J. A., McDonald, R. E., McInness, R. N., McSweeney, C. F., Mitchell, J. F. B., Rostron, J. W., Thornton, H. E, Tucker, S., and Yamazaki, K.: UKCP18 land projections science report, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, 2018.
Noble, I. R., Gill, A. M., and Bary, G. A. V.: McArthur's fire-danger meters expressed as equations, Aust. J. Ecol., 5, 201–203, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.1980.tb01243.x, 1980.
Read, N., Duff, T. J., and Taylor, P. G. A.: A lightning-caused wildfire ignition forecasting model for operational use, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 253–254, 233–246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.01.037, 2018.
Sibley, A. M.: Wildfire outbreaks across the United Kingdom during summer 2018, Weather, 74, 397–402, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3614, 2019.
Smith, A. J. P., Jones, M. W., Abatzoglou, J. T., Canadell, J. G., and Betts, R. A.: Climate change increases the risk of wildfires, Science Brief Review, University of East Anglia, UK, https://news.sciencebrief.org/wildfires-sep2020-update/ (last access: 11 February 2022), 2020.
Van Wagner, C. E.: Development and structure of the Canadian forest Fire Weather Index system, Forestry Technical Report 35, Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 1987.
Vitolo, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Barnard, C., Coughlan, R., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Libertá, G., Krzeminski, B.: ERA5-based global meteorological wildfire danger maps, Sci. Data, 7, 216, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0554-z, 2020.
Wang, D., Guan, D., Zhu, S., MacKinnon, M., Geng, G., Zhang, Q., Lei, T., Shao, S., Gong, P., and Davis, S. J.: Economic footprint of California wildfires in 2018, Nature Sustainability, 4, 252–260, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00646-7, 2021.
Wang, X., Parisien, M.-A., Taylor, S. W., Candau, J.-N., Stralberg, D., Marshall, G. A., Little, J. M., and Flannigan, M. D.: Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 025005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835, 2017.
Wang, Y., Anderson, K. R., and Suddaby, R. M.: Updated source code for calculating fire danger indices in the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, Information Report NOR-X-424, Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2015.
Wartenburger, R., Hirschi, M., Donat, M. G., Greve, P., Pitman, A. J., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3609–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3609-2017, 2017.
Willett, K. M., Dunn, R. J. H., Kennedy, J. J., and Berry, D. I.: Development of the HadISDH.marine humidity climate monitoring dataset, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2853-2020, 2020.
Wu, C., Venevsky, S., Sitch, S., Mercado, L. M., Huntingford, C., and Staver, A. C.: Historical and future global burned area with changing climate and human demography, One Earth, 4, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.002, 2021.
Wu, M., Knorr, W., Thonicke, K., Schurgers, G., Camia, A., and Arneth, A.: Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: a comparison of two fire-vegetation models, JGR Biosciences, 120, 2256–2272, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003036, 2015.
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an emergent risk for the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during...