Documentlist
Paying in times of crisis: Coronavirus, cards and cash
Germany Monitor Household finance
Banking and financial markets
Heike Mai
PDF 495k
Cash was in high demand throughout Europe at the start of the coronavirus crisis. In March, euro circulation skyrocketed by EUR 36 bn month on month. Nearly half of that volume consisted of smaller banknotes, which people use to pay for their everyday purchases. In Germany, however, consumers have increasingly been using contactless payments rather than cash since March as they wish to protect themselves against infection and because the retail sector requests that they avoid cash. Contactless card payments may have replaced a certain share of cash payments permanently even though not all customers who prefer cash will change their payment behaviour. [more]
Corona Crisis Daily
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Karthik Nagalingam, Luke Templeman, Marion Laboure
2020 Institutional Investor All-America Research Team survey
PDF 53k
Football: The divide between clubs will grow wider
Podzept (Podcast series)
Luke Templeman
Listen Audio 8M
With European football leagues on hold, clubs are facing severe losses that will likely continue over into next season. The transfer market has also been highly disrupted. Not all clubs have shareholders with deep pockets and so there is likely to be a widening of inequality between the big and small clubs. [more]
Historic quarter for European banks at the onset of the corona crisis
Jan Schildbach
Online PDF 129k
European banks have taken a substantial initial hit from the corona crisis in Q1, but so far digested it relatively well. Nevertheless, more pain is surely to come. While revenues and costs were both down only mildly, loan loss provisions shot up and almost wiped out industry profits. Capital levels dropped quarter-over-quarter, yet less than feared as banks cancelled 2019 dividends. Balance sheets expanded by a record-breaking 10% compared to year-end due to growth in corporate loans, higher liquidity reserves at central banks and increased derivatives volumes. [more]
2020 Bilateral exports: The great variation
All German export markets will be hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. We foresee great variation among key countries and expect annual exports to the UK and Italy to decline by around 25% in 2020. Large contractions in German exports are also expected for France, Spain and the euro area as a whole. By contrast, exports to Asia may emerge relatively unscathed from the crisis. We expect exports to the US to shrink by around 10% in 2020. However, this forecast seems particularly uncertain to us as the risk of a new wave of infections and new lockdown measures could be higher in the US than elsewhere. [more]
German labour market's glamour (partly) gone
Marc Schattenberg
The COVID-19 pandemic and, in particular, lockdown measures will push the German economy into its biggest slump since WW2. The COVID-19 pandemic hits German labour market differently than the Global Financial Market Crisis of 2009. First, it is acting almost simultaneously as a supply shock and, as a result of the measures to restrict contact, as a demand shock. Second, is the speed and the might with which it has brought the economy to a standstill in many areas of Germany and around the world. Third, private consumption will suffer the biggest blow. During previous periods of economic weakness, private consumption has always been a supporting pillar of the German economy and thus also provided a counterweight to employment losses in export-oriented companies. At present, however, the domestically oriented and personnel-intensive service sector is failing as a driver of employment. By April 26th, 751,000 companies had already registered for short-time work. This should imply an increase in the number of people actually on short-time work to up to 10 m. Despite the comprehensive measures to secure employment, which ultimately include support measures for companies, the number of unemployed persons is expected to climb to 3 m in 2020. Employment is likely to fall in 2020 by a good 1%. [more]
Corona crisis and climate change: New technology is what we need
Sectors and resources
Eric Heymann
Public attention has shifted away from climate change as the coronavirus pandemic has spread. Nevertheless, mitigating climate change and making sure that the growing global population has access to climate-friendly energy remain among the key challenges of this century. These issues will still be on the agenda when the pandemic is over. It is therefore an encouraging sign that many policymakers and corporates have said they will not only take into account, but pay more attention to climate protection when re-opening the economy. The heated discussion about which instruments are best suited to ensure climate protection will continue for years to come, though. [more]
Covid-19: Health check on the global economy
The House View - Snapshot
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views. [more]