2014 Open Seat Outlook: House
Summer is on our doorstep and we are nearly to the halfway point of 2013. The races for 2014 are beginning to take shape as federal legislators determine whether they will run for reelection or hang up their hats to begin a life of retirement, relaxation or their next professional adventure. The open seats created by U.S. Senators deciding to leave are also creating open seats in the House because Representatives are trying to run for the newly open Senate seats. Because open seats create the most opportunity for change in party control, competitiveness and unpredictability, we have created a 2014 overview of all the current open seats up in the House for next year's election.
U.S. House of Representatives: 9 Open Seats (5 R, 4 D)
Iowa 1: Rep. Bruce Braley (D) is running for Senate to replace Sen. Tom Harkin (D) creating an open seat. Braley has represented this district since 2006. Barack Obama won this district 55.9% to Romney's 42.3% illustrating that this is a fairly Democratic district. Several individuals have shown interest in running which means we can expect to see very crowded primaries for both parties. The individuals leading the pack today are Iowa state Rep. Pat Murphy (D) who was Speaker of the legislature from 2007 to 2011 (Murphy announced in Feb.), former television anchor and state Senator Liz Mathis (D), businessman Rod Blum (R) who narrowly lost the primary for this seat last year with 47% of the vote, and former Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate (R) who has the best name ID out of all the candidates. The filing deadline is not until next spring and of all the open House seats, this one is the least partisan, but as of today, D's still have an advantage.
Georgia 10: Rep. Paul Broun (R) is running for Senate to replace Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) creating an open seat. This seat is very conservative and Broun has represented the district since 2006. Mitt Romney won this seat with 62.5% of the vote in 2012, but a third of all residents are minorities, and those demographics are expected to grow in coming years so you can expect to see the dynamics of this district evolve. Two individuals have announced their intentions to run – state Rep. Donna Sheldon (R), the chairwoman of the GOP Caucus, and Jody Hice (R), radio host and Southern Baptist pastor. This seat should easily stay in Republican hands and most of the action will be seen in the primary.
West Virginia 2: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is running for Senate to replace Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) creating an open seat. Capito has represented this conservative district since 2000 and Mitt Romney won the district with 60% of the vote. There are a number of candidates from both parties interested in this seat. Although the district leans Republican, it is not out of the question for a strong Democrat to make this competitive. The top contenders so far are Nick Casey (D), former state Democratic Chair, state Sen. Eric Wells (D) -his wife is Sec. of State Natalie Tennant who has been mentioned to run for Senate- and state Sen. Herb Snyder (D). On the Republican side, numerous names have been mentioned but the names at the top are House Minority Leader Tim Armstead (R), Senate Minority Leader Mike Hall (R), former state Republican Party Chairman Mike Stuart (R) and state Delegates Eric Nelson (R), Patrick Lane (R) and Steve Harrison (R).
Louisiana 6: Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) recently announced he is running for the Senate in a challenge to current Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu, creating an open seat in Louisiana's 6th Congressional District. Cassidy has represented this very Republican district since 2008. President Barack Obama lost this district by 34 points in 2012, making this a very attractive seat for local conservatives. The district includes Baton Rouge and surrounding suburbs. Most of the contenders for the seat are state representatives or state senators, but also considering the seat is former Rep. Jeff Landry (R) who lost in a member vs. member election last year. The only catch is that he does not technically live in the district.
Georgia 1: Another Congressman from the Georgia Delegation, Rep. Jack Kingston (R), is also running for Chambliss' open seat, creating another open seat. Kingston has served in the 1st District since 1993. The district leans Republican, and voted for Romney with 56% of the vote in 2012. There are currently three candidates, state Sen. Buddy Carter (R), Darwin Carter (R), a businessman who worked in President Reagan's administration, and David Schwarz (R), a Republican consultant and former Kingston staffer.
Georgia 11: Rep. Phil Gingrey (R) is also running for Saxby Chambliss' (R) open senate seat. Gingrey has served in the 11th District since 2003. With Romney and Gingrey both winning over 60% of the vote in this district in 2012, it is safe to say this is a red seat. Several Republicans have already announced their candidacy for the open seat, including businesswoman Tricia Pridmeore (R) who previously worked in Gov. Nathan Deal's administration, former House Rep. and federal prosecutor Bob Barr (R), state Sen. Barry Loudermilk (R) and state House Majority Whip Edward Lindsey (R).
Hawaii 1: For the past few months, it was unclear if Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) would challenger Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) or Sen. Brian Schatz (D) in the 2014 elections. Abercrombie did not follow Sen. Inouye's dying wish to appoint Hanabusa to the Senate, and instead chose his Lieutenant Governor, Schatz. Hanabusa has decided to challenge Schatz in the Democratic Primary, officially creating an open seat in Hawaii's 1st District. The district is extremely Democratic and voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2012. A crowded Democratic primary is expected to replace Hanabusa, but right now there is only one declared candidate, Councilman Stanley Chang (D).
Michigan 14: Rep. Gary Peters (D) is running for Senate to replace retiring Sen. Carl Levin (D) creating an open seat in Michigan's congressional delegation. The 14th District leans far to the left. President Obama won the district with over 80% of the vote last year with black voters making up just under 60% of the district's constituents. Several Democrats have said they are interested in the race including former U.S. Rep. Hansen Clarke (D) and state Rep. Rudy Hobbs (D) – both have officially declared. One Republican has been mentioned, the 2010 and 2012 Republican nominee, businessman, and tea party activist John Hauler (R).
Pennsylvania 13: Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) is challenging Gov. Tom Corbett (R) for the governor's mansion in 2014. This is the only open seat in the House in which the incumbent member is not running for the U.S. Senate. Schwartz was first elected to this district that covers the northern corner of Philadelphia in 2004. This is a left leaning district that President Obama won in 2012 with 66% of the vote. Several candidates are interested in the Democratic Primary including state Rep. Brendan Boyle (D), physician and activist Valerie Arkoosh (D), state Sen. Daylin Leach (D) and former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D). No candidates have announced on the Republican side.
Click here for 2014 Open Seat Outlook: Senate
2012 Election Outcomes Summary
- Barack Obama:
50%, 303 Electoral Votes
- Mitt Romney:
- Note: Florida's 29 electoral votes have not officially been called but President Obama leads the raw number count
- Switches from 2008: IN, NC, NE 02 switch from D to R
- Next Senate: 55 D (includes 2 Ind's expected to caucus w/D), 45 R
- Net gain of +2 for Dems
- Of 33 on ballot (23 D, 8 R, 2 Ind)
- Freshman Class: 12 (8 D, 3R, 1 Ind)
- 1 incumbent lost in General Election (Scott Brown-MA, R)
- 1 incumbent lost in Primary Election (Dick Lugar-IN, R)
- Switches:
- R to D: IN, MA
- D to R: NE
- I to D: CT
- R to I: ME
*House
- 113th House will have approximately 236 R and 199 D
- If numbers hold, approximately net gain of +6 for D
- Freshman class: at least 80, 35 R and 42 D, 3 yet to be called (AZ 1, AZ 9, CA 26)
- Democrats lost 9 incumbents (Chandler-KY, Kissell-NC, Critz-PA, Hochul-NY, Sutton-OH, Stark-CA, Boswell-IA, Berman-CA, Richardson-CA)
- Republicans lost 14 incumbents (Bartlett-MD, Rivera-FL, Buerkle-NY, Bass-NH, Dold-IL, Walsh-IL, Biggert-IL, Schilling-IL, Guinta-NH, West-FL, Canseco-TX, Hayworth-NY, Cravaak-MN, LA runoff TBD)
- Current governors breakdown 30 R and 19 D and 1 Ind
- Of the 11 on the ballot 4 R and 6 D (WA still TBD)
- Net gain of +1 R
*Due to the complications of redistricting the House numbers are unusually confusing. For a more thorough explanation contact a BIPAC staff member.
U.S. House OPEN SEATS (62)
Voters will elect at least 62 newcomers to the 113th Congress tomorrow. There are currently 62 open seats as a result of retirements, resignations & lost primary elections. For a list of where we can guarantee a new face see below.
U.S. House
OPEN SEATS (62)
AZ 1 HOLE
AZ 5 OPEN Flake (R)
AZ 9 ADDED
AR 4 OPEN Ross (D)
CA 1 OPEN Herger (R)
CA 2 OPEN Woolsey (D)
CA 8 OPEN Lewis (R)
CA 21 HOLE
CA 26 OPEN Gallegly (R)
CA 51 OPEN Filner (D)
CT 5 OPEN Murphy (D)
FL 3 Lost primary Stearns (R)
FL 6 HOLE
FL 9 ADDED
FL 19 OPEN Mack (R)
FL 22 ADDED
GA 9 ADDED
HI 2 OPEN Hirono (D)
IL 12 OPEN Costello (D)
IL 13 OPEN Johnson (R)
IN 2 OPEN Donnelly (D)
IN 5 OPEN Pence (R)
IN 6 OPEN Burton (R)
KY 4 OPEN Davis (R) VAC
MA 4 OPEN Frank (D)
MI 5 OPEN Kildee (D)
MI 11 OPEN McCotter (R) VAC
MO 2 OPEN Akin (R)
MT/AL OPEN Rehberg (R)
NV 1 OPEN Berkley (D)
NV 4 ADDED
NJ 10 OPEN Payne (D) VAC
NM 1 OPEN Heinrich (D)
NY 6 OPEN Ackerman (D)
NY 8 OPEN Towns (D)
NC 9 OPEN Myrick (R)
NC 11 OPEN Shuler (D)
NC 13 OPEN Miller (D)
ND A/L OPEN Berg (R)
OH 2 Lost primary Schmitt (R)
OH 3 HOLE
OH 14 OPEN LaTourette (R)
OK 1 Lost primary Sullivan (R)
OK 2 OPEN Boren (D)
PA 4 OPEN Platts (R)
PA 17 Lost primary Holden (D)
SC 7 ADDED
TX 14 OPEN Paul (R)
TX 16 Lost primary Reyes (D)
TX 20 OPEN Gonzalez (D)
TX 25 ADDED
UT 2 ADDED
WA 1 OPEN Inslee (D) VAC
WA 6 OPEN Dicks (D)
WA 10 ADDED
WI 2 OPEN Baldwin (D)
Swing State Presidential Match Ups
Current Event – Voter ID
Recent State Court Decisions Strike Down Voter ID Laws While Public Supports Voting Protections
In 2012, a number of states have attempted to pass election laws requiring voters to show a photo ID when voting. The laws are all backed by Republicans and have been passed in Texas, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and South Carolina as an attempt to prevent voter fraud. However, all of them have faced opposition in the courts with varying results.
A September 8-12 nationwide poll conducted by CBS News/New York Times showed that 70% of voters supported "efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote" while 28% opposed voter ID measures. The poll shows that 76% of Independents, 94% of Republicans and 48% of Democrats support voter ID laws. Recent efforts to enact voter ID laws have become a political hot potato and have polarized elected Republicans and Democrats on an issue that at one time found bipartisan support as currently seen in polling numbers among voters.
According to data from the non-partisan National Conference of State Legislators (NCSL), 27 states have passed voter ID laws that will be used in the 2012 election with another 6 states passing voter ID laws that will be used starting in 2013 pending final approval from either a court or state legislature.
Pennsylvania voters will technically be asked to show a photo ID on Election Day, but they won't be turned away if they don't have one. The court essentially ruled that it won't be enforced until after the election. Wisconsin's voter ID law was ruled unconstitutional in March by a Circuit Court Judge and again by another judge in July.
Newly passed voter ID laws in New Hampshire and Virginia were given pre-clearance by the Department of Justice and will be in effect this November.
Due to the Voting Rights Act, Texas and South Carolina need approval from the Justice Department or a special panel of federal judges in Washington if they want to change election procedures. A federal panel unanimously ruled against the Texas law at the end of August due to a provision in the enacted legislation that would have potentially imposed too high of a financial requirement for some voters.
The ruling on South Carolina's law was similar to the one in Pennsylvania. The bipartisan, three judge panel in Washington upheld the law and established it as constitutional, saying there was nothing inherently discriminatory in the law. However, voters won't be asked to show a photo ID this election. The law won't officially be fully enforced until next election cycle.
The issue of having voters present photo identification to register to vote and to actually vote will continue at statehouses across the country over the next few years. The likelihood that additional cases will head to the U.S. Supreme Court remains high and look for the Court to attempt to provide clarity on one of the hottest issues in election matters.
Source: Poll Headlines (September 20, 2012)
"It Gets Late Early Out Here"
If you are of a certain age and/or loved real American baseball, you will recognize this headline as one of Yogi Berra's famous lines. If you are too young or follow another sport, the phrase should still mean something to you this election cycle. We're at mid-September, and voters are already casting ballots in a few battleground states. The unusually late conventions are over, with all credible polling giving a boost to President Obama. Major TV ad markets are almost sold out and even more modern communication vehicles, such as target Internet sites, are filled. Congressional primary dates were moved forward this cycle to allow overseas Americans an opportunity to return ballots.
To quote another Yogi phrase, "it ain't over til it's over" … but … it is late in the scheme of things for dramatic so-called "game changers" to occur. Of course the presidential debates matter and of course Saturday Night Live or other mainstream comics will help shape our views. Someone can still commit an incredible gaffe, there are two more unemployment figures to be released, and unforeseen, unpredictable incidents always happen. On the fundamentals, things have been in place for months with 11 open Senate seats and a completely redrawn House of Representatives guaranteed to elect at least 62 new faces.
Here are a few things to keep in mind as we evaluate the time between now and the first presidential debate on October 3.
We can't dream about the past and liken this to another cycle. This isn't 1980 where a perceived sudden surge by Ronald Reagan ousted President Carter. Why? Because that was before the Internet, bloggers, cable, Twitter, etc., when the debates were a go-to spot for impressions about the candidates. Before early voting. Before an expanded electorate that includes a growing number of young voters and Hispanics. Before the realigned Electoral College. Reagan, the former governor of California, won that state's 45 electors. Today, California has 55 electors and will give 60% or more of the popular vote to President Obama. Mitt Romney has to win all the states in the McCain column, then pull a net of 96 electoral votes off the Obama tally.
This isn't a simple two-way presidential race. I've written and spoken at length about the others on the ballot. In recent weeks, Libertarian Gary Johnson has qualified in most of the target states. Constitution nominee Virgil Goode, a former congressman from Virginia, is on that state's ballot. Courts ruled that Nevada can continue to offer the option of "none of the above." Ron Paul supporters know how to organize and surprise, caring less about victory than making a point. Watch what his enthusiasts might do - writing in his name in Iowa or elsewhere. If one of the major party contenders can't stay over 50% for the next three weeks, one of the "others" will affect the outcome in states such as New Mexico, Colorado, possibly Wisconsin, in addition to the rest listed in bold in this article.
There are persuadable, undecided, likely voters. A recent Zogby poll surmised there were at least 10% unwilling to commit and who, perhaps surprisingly, paid little attention to the conventions. Some of them are likely employed or business owners, within the reach of the employer community on economic issues. Even modest swings in demographic groups, such as younger white males or working women, can shape the outcome in critical states such as North Carolina. As more state polls are conducted, watch which electoral subsets are not yet at 50% for either candidate.
Pay attention to what candidates are doing on the ground rather than on the airwaves. Notably, both presidential tickets took down their commercials on September 11, but that didn't mean their field offices closed. At this stage, a better trending barometer would be the volume of traffic in and out of local volunteer storefronts than what we see on our broadcast screens. It's impossible to turn out early voters without a ground game. Each camp will claim his operation is the best, but our state partners tell us that the Obama campaign continues to outnumber the Romney presence. New Hampshire is the classic ground state because even well funded candidates want to avoid investing in Boston TV.
Bill Clinton wagged his finger at the TV cameras during his convention speech in Charlotte and said "this is personal." I think he is the equivalent of the swat team who shows up when the local sheriff can't control a situation. Expect him to appear when and where he is most needed to turn around a very specific target group. The earlier he is alive on the trail (not in an ad, email, website), indicates the increased nervousness of Obama strategists. If he has to go to Michigan or Pennsylvania, there is something afoot showing movement from the Romney message. More within the gameplan: Denver, around the first debate, or Florida on October 22 (last debate is Boca Raton). Clinton's rallies will draw thousands. If he goes to Missouri, you will know there is evidence the Republican state ticket has eroded an anticipated Romney victory. We don't hear anyone saying "I'll visit all 50 states," as President Ford attempted in 1976 – ending in a lost voice and a lost race.
I didn't mention Ohio in the above points because my map gets someone to the White House without it - always has, always will. This is counter to what everyone else believes as a core premise of American politics. Make of it what you will.
As all consuming as this exercise in arithmetic can be, the most intriguing races are taking place outside the presidential spotlight. North Carolina has a critical state Supreme Court race likely to stand on the merits of the two candidates and the incumbent's judicial rulings. Pennsylvania's business/energy climate is affected by the outcome of the Attorney General campaign. The Washington gubernatorial matchup will appeal to ticketsplitters. Wisconsin's state senate flipped to Republican in 2010 and then back to Democrat after the 2011/12 recalls. My favorite Senate races this week are in North Dakota and Connecticut where women candidates, one Democrat and the other Republican, are disrupting the predictions of all the pre-game analysts. If Democrats chip away at the Republican majority in the House, it will be in California, Illinois, and New York. Hardly a brain cell will get exercised on the presidential contours in these states.
It certainly is getting late early out here on the campaign trail but it's not too late yet. Go: register to vote, vote early, plan your lameduck grassroots activities, get ready for January 2013. I'm loading up on Tums and will be happy to share. The future ain't what it used to be.
Incumbent vs. Incumbent Races Leave Nothing But Scars
15 incumbent versus incumbent contests
Freshman targeted more often
Table of pairings
Preview of remaining incumbent versus incumbent battles
Links to previous Election Insights articles involving incumbent versus incumbent races
Behind the Numbers with Michael: 39 (a tribute to Sally Ride)
Reapportionment and redistricting happen every ten years (or at least they are supposed to happen only once every ten years) and the results of moving district boundaries can cause confusion, tough decisions, and bad feelings. Not just bad, but long lasting and deep feelings that just will not ever go away. As a result of the most recent redistricting, there will be 15 contests involving 13 pairs in 11 different states of incumbent versus incumbent races for the U.S. House. This number would have been significantly higher except for the fact that many incumbents decided to retire, run for a different office or literally moved in order to run in a different district.
Nearly one-third (9 of 26) of the incumbents involved in these contests are serving in their first full term. Freshmen (or those in their first full term like Rep. Critz) are often easier targets in the redistricting process to end up with less favorable districts. They have less seniority, less power and often not as strong of relationships. Even though three of the nine incumbents are in states where the new lines are drawn by Independent Redistricting Commissions, do not be lulled into believing that "Independent" means blind to who the incumbents are and absent the partisan politics involved in playing cartographer that occurs when state legislatures draw the lines.
Another motive often at play by those drawing the lines is to eliminate incumbents who are not as well thought of as others in their delegation (OH-09) or force the retirement of someone who should step aside (IL-16). Redistricting is a game of power, control and self-interest for elected officials. For House members, it is often a game of self-preservation that results in many members hiring others to lobby on their behalf to protect their district lines and, therefore, their chances to stay in Congress. Can you think of any other issue where a member would hire outside help to show up at the statehouse?
Due to the new top two primary system in California, the incumbents paired against each other in CA-30 and CA-44 faced each other in the Primary Election where they were the top vote getters and thus advanced to face each other again in the General Election. Twice the fun, twice the pain. Louisiana holds their Primary Election on November 6 (the same date as the General Election in the other 49 states) and if no candidate crosses the 50% mark, they will hold a Runoff Election on December 1.
Here are the 13 incumbent versus incumbent pairings in 2012:
August will feature the four remaining incumbent versus incumbent primary contests before the November elections. While each one of these contests will likely headline the election on that date, the Arizona battle between Reps. Quayle (R) and Schweikert (R) may be the most competitive, expensive and watched battle on the entire list. The award for "being left without a chair" clearly goes to Rep. Carnahan (D) in MO-01 who was on the wrong side of a deal cut by Missouri State Senate Democrats to complete redistricting. We will cover each of these contests in future editions of Election Insights.
Click on the state to read previous Election Insights articles on primary races already conducted involving incumbent versus incumbent: California, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania.