Shanghai's Top University Relies on
@RISK and DecisionTools Suite to Train
Next Generation of Engineering Leaders
Engineering students at one of China's top universities, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, are learning how to deal with risk analyses and decision-making with the best tools in the industry: @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite. Professor Li Mian, an authority in system design and optimization, uses the tools not only in his own research, but in the classroom as well.
Dr. Li gives two examples on how the software is used in his teaching and research. The first example involves a study of pricing risk and decision-making when introducing a new product to the market. The price of a new market-entry product will be affected by many factors, such as the costs of raw materials and labor during the production process. While these two factors have a decisive influence on a product's final price, how big is their impact? This was what Dr. Li wanted to find out. He and his research team settled on a Monte Carlo simulation, reducing the two factors to uncertain values with random characteristics, where each value was assigned a random variable distribution. The researchers then applied the Monte Carlo method to confirm the relative influence of these two factors on the ultimate product price. The whole approach was simple and intuitive.
The second example involved Dr. Li's use of the software in his course work. He applied the software when determining the influences of various factors on tolerances in car engine design. While all engines have design tolerances built-in during the design and manufacturing processes, complex calculations and analysis are needed to determine the degree of impact that each uncertainty has on tolerances throughout the engine design and production process. This kind of application is important to many types of scientific research.
This case study is available in Chinese also:
» 上海交大开设DecisionTools 和@RISK软件课程并获得成果
» More about Professor Li
» More about @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite
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Professor Li Mian
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Royal Military College
University of British Columbia, Okanagan
US Coast Guard Academy
Agder University - Norway
Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business - China
Democritus University of Thrace - Greece
ESADE - Spain
Fundaзгo Univ. Josй Bonifбcio - Brazil
Fundaciуn Universidad de las Amйricas, Puebla - Mexico
Fundaciуn Universitaria Autуnoma de las Americas - Colombia
Hochschule Bremerhaven - Germany
Indian School of Business - India
INSEAD - Singapore
KyungHee University - South Korea
SLU Swedish University of Agricult Sciences - Sweden
Tunghai University - Taiwan
Univ. of Western Australia - Australia
Universidad de Lima - Peru
Universidad de Montevideo - Uruguay
Universidad Francisco Marroquin - Guatemala
Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico - Mexico
Universidad Politecnica de Tlaxcala - Mexico
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro - Brazil
University College London - United Kingdom
University of Hertfordshire - United Kingdom
University of Lubljana - Slovenia UNSW - Australia
Yeditepe University - Turkey
Regression and Classification
Excerpted from Learning Statistics with StatTools,
by Chris Albright, published by Palisade
Regression is one of the most frequently used statistical techniques, both because of its power and its flexibility. It allows you to "explain" a variable such as Salary from values of other related variables. The variable to be explained is called the dependent variable and is often labeled Y. The variables used to explain Y are called the independent variables (or explanatory variables) and are often labeled X's. The objective is to estimate a regression equation for Y in terms of the X's, using the method of least squares. The resulting equation serves two purposes. First, by examining the coefficients of the X's, you can better understand "how the world works." For example, you can better understand the salary structure in a company or housing prices in a community. Second, the regression equation allows you to predict new values of Y, given the corresponding values of the X's.
StatTools also provides a set of procedures for building a regression equation step by step, as many analysts prefer to do. These include the "true" stepwise procedure, a forward stepwise procedure, and a backward stepwise procedure. It even includes a somewhat nonstandard block procedure. All of these are discussed in this chapter.
Download example files and view step-by-step instructions
The DecisionTools Suite is a key component in major textbooks in business, OR, and engineering.
Applied Simulation Modeling
By Andrew Seila, Vlatko Ceric, and Pandu Tadikamalla
This textbook provides the student with both a conceptual introduction to the concepts of simulation modeling and practical experience with real examples using @RISK. The coverage includes Risk Simulation, Dynamic Systems, and Discrete Event Simulation models. Throughout the text, the authors show readers how they can use simulation in the context of decision making. Practical examples from Operations Management, Manufacturing, Health Care, and Finance are included throughout to give students an appreciation for the wide scope of application and the robust nature of simulation modeling.
The DecisionTools Suite is part of complex analyses published in white papers.
"Assessing Your Own Risk and Solvency,
or said differently… How Risky are We?"
Joel Kress, The Self-Insurer Monthly, July 2012
Joel Kress, underwriting manager at Government Entities Mutual, Inc. PCC, asks the question, "How risky is our captive insurance company?" @RISK's Monte Carlo simulation allowed him to look at how exposure to risk changed over time in his company, and then simulate hypothetical future policy years. The model helped create a policy around risk, so that the Board of Directors and Regulators could feel comfortable that management's day-to-day decisions will not exceed the predetermined desired risk levels.
» SJTU Relies on @RISK and
DecisionTools Suite to
Train Next Generation
of Engineering Leaders
"Assessing Your Own Risk
and Solvency, or said
differently… How Risky
are We?"
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