Archive for the 'elijah dukes' tag
Who is the Best HS player the Nats have ever drafted?
Would you believe that A.J. Cole is the best prep draft prospect ever for the Nats in the Rizzo era? Read on. Photo AP
A comment about Mason Denaburg in the last thread, with MarkL wondering/speculating on whether our 2018 1st overall pick may possibly pitch in 2021, made me think, yet again, about the folly of drafting high school arms (or HS players in general) and then made me wonder..
Who is the best HS player we've ever drafted?
By "best" I mean possible one of two things:
1. Most successful for our team or for someone else, since (as we'll see) we've had a tendency to trade prospects before they matriculate.
2. Most successful for the Nationals themselves.
So, we'll answer both.
I'll also divide this into the "Rizzo" era and the pre-Rizzo era, since you can almost count on one hand the total number of HS players Mike Rizzo has drafted since taking over in mid 2009, whereas the Jim Bowden regime was quite heavily skewed towards HS players.
Using the Draft Tracker as a reference, here are your nominees for best ever HS draftee by the Washington Nationals, moving backwards in time (note; i'm omitting some HS draftees like 20th round signees who happened to sign and subsequently flame out; this mostly is a value play of top-5 round picks plus other notables we over-paid).
2020: Samuel Infante, SS/3B from Florida: too early to tell obviously, but the reaction in the Natmosphere was mixed to begin with. We'll see.
2018: Mason Denaburg, RHP from Florida. $3M signing bonus for getting selected 27th overall in the 1st round. Has been plagued by injury since his arrival, and his limited stats have not been promising. What is even more indicting about this selection is the fact that the next three arms drafted who signed ( Shane McClanahan, Jackson Kowar and UVA's Daniel Lynch) were all college arms (like what the Nats normally draft this high), are all now considered top-100 prospects, and had all reached AA by the end of 2019. Opportunities lost.
2016: Carter Kieboom, SS from Georgia. Held the #1 Nats prospect label for years, but has struggled in two call-ups now that have the team looking at 3B candidates in free agency, a pretty severe indictment of what they think they have in Kieboom right now.
2016: Jesus Luzardo, LHP from Florida. Traded as the centerpiece prospect of the Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madsen acquisition in 2017, then became a top-10 prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2019 season. Pitched in Oakland's rotation as a 22yr old in 2020 with league average results, projecting to be a #2 lefty starter. It was a lot to give up for relievers (at the time I was "ok" with the trade, but did note that it would look pretty lopsided if Luzardo turned into precisely what he's projecting to become), but flags fly forever and Doolittle was an integral part of this team for a while.
2015: Blake Perkins, OF from Arizona. Traded to Kansas City as part of a prospect group to acquire Kelvin Herrera, has a career .236 minor league BA as a glove-first CF.
2015: Tyler Watson LHP from Arizona. 34th rounder paid like a 4th rounder that year. Traded to Minnesota to acquire Brandon Knitzler as part of the great mid-season bullpen construction job in 2017. Pitched all of 2019 in High-A's rotation with decent results, likely in AA in 2021. Knitzler of course ran himself out of town in mid 2018, so the team didn't get a ton to show for this trade.
2014: Jakson Reetz, C from Nebraska. Has passed through three Rule-5 drafts now and was part of the 60-man extended roster in 2020. He stepped up his power and his offense in 2019 in High-A; is he turning a corner? Re-signed as a MLFA this off-season to do his 8th pro season in our farm system.
2014: McKenzie Mills LHP from Georgia. This 18th rounder blew up in the spring of 2017, dominating Low-A and getting flipped to Philadelphia to acquire Howie Kendrick. His 2018 was solid in High-A, but he struggled with the jump to AA and got released in the minor league purge of June 2020. I wonder if he's worth a MLFA flier in 2021 for someone.
2013: Drew Ward, 3B from Oklahoma. 3rd rounder who was good enough to get promoted year after year, but not to escape "org player" role. Released in the 2020 player purge.
2013: Travis Ott, LHP from Pennsylvania. showed some promise in his 2nd pro season in Short-A as a 19yr old, enough so to be the secondary piece in the huge 3-team trade that netted the team Trea Turner and Joe Ross. (more on that later when we talk about Souza). He continued to pitch well in Tampa's org, but then curiously was moved to the bullpen in 2018 and then was stuck on the restricted list in apr 2019, where he presumably remains today. No idea what happened here.
2012: Lucas Giolito RHP from California. Perhaps the most controversial candidate on this list. He had TJ surgery the year he was drafted, recovered, raced through the minors and debuted for the team as a 21yr old in June of 2016. His Minor league career looked too good to be true. But, in MLB 21 innings that year he pitched to an ugly 6.75 ERA, an even worse 8.21 FIP … and then got flipped in the off-season as the centerpiece to acquire Adam Eaton from the White Sox. I hated the move when it happened. There were rumors about how the Nats talent evaluators thought that Giolito had "plateaued" or that somehow he wasn't someone they could work with. And, to be fair, it took a full year of awfulness in the majors for the White Sox before Giolito modified his mechanics and turned into a pretty good starter. His last two seasons have been ERA+ of 134 and 128 respectively, and he's gotten down-ballot Cy Young voting. Did the Nats give up on him too early? Yes. Did we get equivalent value in return from Eaton? No …. but it wasn't entirely Eaton's fault. Who could have known that Eaton would blow out his knee, which would blow out his defensive value, which was a huge reason he was such a WAR darling prior to his trade? Does the 2019 WS title make every move between 2015 and Nov 2019 worth it regardless of the transaction? Most would argue yes. Flags fly forever.
2012: Hayden Jennings, OF from Louisiana; a 6th rounder that year, he lasted just two years in the system and never got out of the GCL. Seemed like a quick release frankly; I wonder if there was some off-the-field issues.
2010: A.J. Cole RHP from Florida. Just could never cut it as a starter for this team, with spot start appearances across 4 MLB seasons for the Nats. Finally flipped for cash after his DFA ahead of the 2018 season when he ran out of options and the team ran out of patience. He's bounced around since, pitching for the Yankees bullpen in 2018, getting claimed off waivers by Cleveland for 2019, then signing on as a FA for Toronto in 2020, each time putting up decent numbers as an 8th/9th inning non-closer type. Why he could never do this for us is … a mystery. Certainly we could use a competent reliever right now.
2010: Robbie Ray, LHP from Arizona. A 12th rounder given 2nd round money, Ray was the centerpiece prospect in the Doug Fister 2013 trade (which shocked the baseball world and made the Nats look like a genius), then was flipped again to Arizona ahead of the 2014 season. From there he turned into a solid starter, putting up huge K/9 numbers but featuring as a guy who struggled to get through 6 innings thanks to elevated pitch counts. He's a FA this off-season and could be a decent 4th starter for someone.
2010: Bryce Harper: you could technically count Harper here since he was a HS-aged player in Juco, but it isn't like selecting him 1-1 was any great piece of decision making on the Nats part. He was destined to be a 1st overall pick from the moment he appeared on the cover of SI as a 16-yr old.
So, in the Rizzo Era, I'd say that the most successful HS drafted player for us or any other team is clearly Lucas Giolito (even though Ray has more career bWAR), with Luzardo projecting right now perhaps as having the capabilities of supplanting him in the future.
The most successful HS drafted player for the Nats? Only three have even played a game for the Nats: Cole, Giolito and Kieboom. Read that sentence again; in a decade of drafting, just three prep-players have ever suited up for this team. I guess you'd have to say Cole has the most impact for the Nationals themselves at this point, with high hopes for Kieboom going forward.
Rizzo was named the GM in August of 2009, so technically the 2009 and prior drafts were not on his resume (yes he was involved in the 2009 draft, but it was still Jim Bowden's show) You can see the effect that Rizzo had on draft strategy, because prior to 2010, the team was much more apt to draft prep players. We'll run through them below.
2009: Michael Taylor, SS from Florida. Quickly converted to OF, where he was a fantastic defender who hung around for years as 4th OF for the team. Finally non-tendered this past off-season, and he's heading to Kansas City for the 2021 season. Some were sorry to see him go; if his arb salary hadn't inflated so much, maybe he'd still be here.
2009: Roberto Perez SS from Puerto Rico. Played three minor league seasons and (in my opinion) got a quick release after a stint in 2011 at Short-A.
2008: Destin Hood, OF from Alabama. The 2nd round pick played out the string in our org, then bounced around for four more years as a MLFA. In his "make or break" year as a 23yr old in AA he slashed .224/.278/.327 and his fate was sealed. Eventually got some MLB time with Miami.
2008: Graham Hicks, LHP from Florida; never got out of low-A, flipped in the Gorzelanny deal, out of baseball by age 22.
2008: Adrien Neito, C from Florida. Had a great-looking season in High-A as a 23rd old, then the team left him unprotected in Rule-5 and he got plucked by the White Sox. I went back and looked at my analysis of the 2013 rule-5 draft and discovered that the team was sitting at 39/40 and really didn't have the room to protect someone like Nieto, who was considered a long-shot to get taken despite going to the AFL that year. Nonetheless, after spending all of 2014 on the 25-man roster, he was went back down and never re-appeared. He has bounced around as a MLFA ever since and is still active today.
2008: J.P. Ramirez, OF from Texas. Ramirez played out his 6-years with the Nats, then jumped to indy and eventually Mexican league ball.
In 2007 alone, Bowden drafted no less than 8 prep players in the top 10 rounds. Did any of them pan out?
2007 Michael Burgess OF from Florida. He was beginning to blossom in 2010 as a 21 yr old, making it to AA and playing in the AFL, so he was used as the centerpiece prospect to get Gorzelanny. He didn't do much afterwards, bouncing around orgs and eventually going to indy ball.
2007: Jake Smolinkski 3B from Illinois. Very quickly became a solid prospect, succeeding in Low-A as a 19yr old and became the centerpiece prospect sent that off-season to acquire Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen. Interestingly, he washed out of the Miami org as a MLFA, caught on with Texas and had several years as a MLB utility player with Texas and Oakland after that.
2007: Steven Souza, OF from Washington State: a middling prospect for years, he started to show some serious pop as a 23yr old in High-A, culminating with a blow-up season in AAA as a 25 year old that allowed the Nats to pull off perhaps their greatest ever trade heist; packing Souza with Travis Ott and interjecting themselves into a trade between Tampa and San Diego to fleece San Diego out of two first round picks in Trea Turner and Joe Ross. Souza had his best season in 2017 for Tampa, a 3.5 win team, but has struggled with injuries
2007: Derek Norris, C from Kansas. 5 seasons, 5 promotions for Norris in our system, before he was included as perhaps the 3rd piece of 4 in the Gio Gonzalez trade. Once he got to Oakland though, he blew up and had several solid seasons, even making the 2014 all star team. But he declined quickly, got moved to San Diego, then the nats re-acquired him back for Luis Avila … only to DFA him a few weeks later.
2007: Josh Smoker, LHP from Georgia. Played out his string with the team without ever getting out of A-ball, then made it into the Mets' bullpen in 2016 and 2017, where he put up below replacement level numbers.
2007: Jack McGeary, LHP from Massachusetts. Paid like a mid-1st rounder in the days before bonus slots, McGeary seemed like a potential steal. Unfortunately, he just could not compete, suffering injuries multiple times. Mercifully taken in the minor league rule-5 draft by his hometown team Boston in 2013, he didn't do much better there, eventually washing out of indy ball in 2014 as a 25-yr old.
2007; PJ Dean, RHP from Texas. Looked awesome in Short-A as a 19yr old, throwing 10 starts with a 1.97 ERA. Was the lead prospect in the Willingham/Olsen trade that off-season… then, nothing. I have no idea what happened to the guy; he never played another game of baseball for the Marlins or anyone. Does anyone have any idea what happened to him?
2007: Patrick McCoy LHP from Arizona; struggled as a starter early, moved to the pen, played out his string with the Nats as an org guy, signed on as a MLFA with Detroit and got a call-up where he put nearly 2.5 runners on base and was waived. Bounced around after that, never made the majors again.
It is notable that Jim Bowden nearly signed more HS players between these last two years than Rizzo has done in a decade in charge. Just a completely different mind-set of drafting.
In 2006 it was more of the same: the first 6 players he picked were all HS players.
2006: Chris Marrero, OF from Florida. Made his way up to the big club in 2011 as a 22yr old, never really made it back. Was the quintessential 4-A guy for years, profiling as a corner guy w/o great defensive skills but missing the big bat.
2006: Stephen Englund, OF from Washington State. Seems like a huge scouting miss; he just could not hit pro pitching. Career minor league slash line of .188/.308/.252. Cut from Low-A in 2009 after starting the season 11-101 with 48 Ks.
2006: Stephen King, 3B from Florida. Played for years in the low-minors as a light-hitting infielder, eventually leaving as a 6-yr FA. Got to AA twice, was never able to even hit .200 there.
2006: Colten Willems, RHP from Florida. The 1st rounder was ok his first couple of years in pro ball, never could really compete above low-A, then abruptly retired at age 21 when he struggled upon getting demoted back to Hagerstown. A huge draft bust.
2006: Sean Black, RHP from New Jersey. Drafted in the 2nd round, refused to sign. Went to Seton Hall, 7th round pick by the Yankees three years later. Was a solid starter up to AA, got flipped to Cincinnati and his career fizzled.
2006: Glenn Gibson LHP from New York. Had a great pro debut in Short-A as a 19yrold, then was traded to the Rays to obtain Elijah Dukes. Tampa dumped him two seasons later, and the Nats picked him back up because they liked him enough to draft him in the first place. He didn't go much further and was released from affiliated ball in 2011 as a 23yr old.
2006: Sam Brown, RHP from North Carolina. Did not sign, went to NC State, signed with Texas, then signed as a MLFA with the Nats in 2011 after his release. Pitched one year in the Hagerstown bullpen and was done.
2006: Brad Peacock, RHP from Florida. A 41st round pick selected under the previous rules of "Draft and Follow." He was drafted in June of 2006, but not signed until May 30th of 2007. It took him a while to get going professionally, but he blew up in 2011, rising from High-A to the majors with a sterling debut. This led to him being included in the player package to acquire Gonzalez from Oakland. After a year there, he was moved again to Houston in the Jed Lowrie move, and from there he flourished in a swingman role, winning a World Series there in 2017.
In 2005, just one top-10 round HS player drafted, but a few more signed on in the later rounds.
2005: Ryan DeLaughter; OF from Texas. he never really succeeeded outside of complex ball, giving Short-A a try multiple times. Hooked on briefly with Milwaukee and indy league baseball as a 22yr old.
2005: Deryck Johnson, CF from Florida; this 14th rounder played just one season in rookie ball, hit .185 and was cut.
2005: Michael Watkins, RHP from Rhode Island. Pitched parts of two rookie league seasons and got cut.
2005: Eduardo Pichardo, RHP from Florida. This 17th rounder threw 13.2 innings across two rookie league seasons and posted a stellar 20.41 ERA and was released.
2005: Brad Clark, RHP from Florida. This 19th rounder got hurt, didn't pitch until 2007, threw 5 1/3 total innings and got cut.
2005: Ryan Butchter RHP from New Jersey: signed as a 33rd rounder, somehow survived two seasons with ERAs north of 7.00, then got traded after his third pro year for Matt Avery. Avery pitched one year of relief for our AA team and got cut. Meanwhile, Butchter hung on for years, finally debuting as a 27 yr old, and then as a 29yr old rookie excelled in the San Diego bullpen.
So, in the pre-Rizzo era, who's the most accomplished HS drafted player for any team? Best candidates are Peacock, Norris, Souza, and Taylor. I'll go out on a limb and say its Peacock.
For just the Nats? Has to be Taylor.
December 15th, 2020 at 10:01 pm
Posted in Draft,Minor League Pitching,Nats in General
Tagged with adam eaton, adrien nieto, aj cole, blake perkins, brad clark, brad peacock, brandon knitzler, bryce harper, carter kieboom, chris marrero, colten willems, daniel lynch, derek norris, deryck johnson, destin hood, doug fister, drew ward, eduardo pichardo, elijah dukes, gio gonzalez, glenn gibson, graham hicks, hayden jennings, howie kendrick, jack mcgeary, jackson kowar, jake smolinski, jakson reetz, jed lowrie, jesus luzardo, jim bowden, joe ross, josh smoker, josh willingham, jp ramirez, kelvin herrera, lucas giolito, luis avila, mason denaburg, matt avery, mckenzie mills, michael burgess, michael taylor, michael watkins, mike rizzo, patrick mccoy, pj dean, robbie ray, roberto perez, ryan butchter, ryan delaughter, ryan madsen, sam brown, samuel infante, scott olsen, sean black, sean doolittle, shane mcclanahan, stephen englund, stephen king, steven souza, travis ott, trea turner, tyler watson
From Nats to Oblivion; Updated for 2014 season
Will Soriano join the Nats to Oblivion list? Photo via zimbio.com
Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled. I've updated the research for older players as needed. See here for 2013's version, click here for 2012's version of this post.
Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled "From Nats to Oblivion." It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his idea, here's an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.
It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year's worth of players who will not fall into this "Oblivion" category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. So a 0% oblivion measure isn't a goal. The best this team has done is 5 players (the 2012 and 2013 teams), but the 2014 team has a good shot of beating that.
For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2014 team:
2014: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 8/40 = 20% candidate ratio right now
2013: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 5/44 = 11.3% candidate ratio
2010: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
2009: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
2008: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again
2006: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again
Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game. That's still astounding to me. Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.
2014 (8 candidates right now):
Total Players used: 22 position, 18 pitchers, 40 total. 8/40 = 20% candidate ratio right now
Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, has not yet signed for 2015
Greg Dobbs: FA after 2014, has not signed yet for 2015
Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training. Currently unsigned Currently in Japan
Kevin Frandsen; re-signed and released by team in Apr 2015. Signed w/ Arizona Apr 2015, ML deal for AAA
Ryan Mattheus: Signed with LAA for 2015; in AAA
Jeff Kobernus: Nats AAA 2015 Released by the team Mar 2015, unsigned as of this posting.
Rafael Soriano: FA after 2014, has yet to sign for 2015
Taylor Hill: Nats AAA 2015
(Note; i've put in corrections as noted in the comments, striking out the incorrect text).
I'd expect this list to at least get cut in half; Kobernus and Hill seem likely to get some work with the Nats this year, and its just a matter of time before Soriano gets signed to fill out someone's bullpen hole (like ours?). The first 5 guys though … could be in trouble. Hairston and Dobbs went the whole off-season w/o getting signed. Schierholz didn't make the Texas team and is a FA. Frandsen is in the same boat after getting unconditionally released by the Nats, but quickly picked up a AAA deal with Houston. Mattheus is off the 40-man but did make the Angels' AAA team as a MLFA.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: too early to have a "story" really. Maybe the story about how Ryan Mattheus' career basically cratered after he punched a wall with his pitching hand in May of 2013. Or the story of Rafael Soriano's fall from grace in 2014 (first half: 0.97 ERA and talks of an All Star snub. Second half? 6.48 ERA and being removed as closer). But neither of those stories are really "fun."
2013 (5 Candidates):
Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 5/44 = 11.3% candidate ratio right now
Chad Tracy: MLFA signed w/ LA Angels for spring 2014, cut, retired 4/25/14
Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he is in 2015.
Chris Marrero: MLFA, signed w/ Baltimore AAA 2014, no stats for 2015 yet.
Jhonatan Solano; Nats AA 2014, Miami AAA for 2015.
Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015
Updates since last post: Removed Nathan Karns (TB), Corey Brown (Boston), Jeff Kobernus (Nats in 2014), Eury Perez (NYY).
At least three of these players may very well stay on the "Oblivion" list (the first three). The last two seem like better candidates to eventually get off the list.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo's first foray into the Cuban exile market. Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize. He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter. He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse's lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was "just" $8M). This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he's shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter. As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he's shown some good stats in limited appearances.
2012 (5 candidates)
Brad Lidge: Retired post 2012
Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013. Not signed for 2014
Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014 and no subsequent appearances.
Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, not signed for 2015
Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014. Not signed for 2015
Updates in last 12 months: none; we removed several players from this list last year, but none since.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly. When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I'll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn't work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn't work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung 'em up.
Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011; will appear on the 2017 Hall-of-Fame Ballot with 1st ballot stats but a PED cloud over his head.
Matt Stairs — retired after 2011
Alex Cora — retired after 2011, now the General Manager of a Puerto Rican Winter League team.
Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA'd off 40-man roster. 2014 indy, NYY AA team
Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013. Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015
Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA'd off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015
Changes in the last 12 months: none.
A couple of these guys are still hanging on; with Broderick coming back to organized ball and Severino with his third straight MLFA signing with a new squad for 2015.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I've never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.
2010 (12 players)
Total Players used: 20 position, 26 pitchers, 46 total. 12/46 = 26.0% never appeared again
Kevin Mench; retired after 2010
Jamie Burke; retired after 2010
Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012, out of baseball.
Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013, out of baseball.
Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013. Not signed for 2014
Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA. Not signed for 2014
JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014
Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012. Mexican League 2013, Indy ball 2014
Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atl AA/AAA 2013, indy/mexican league 2014
Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013. Mexican league 2014, 2015
Changes in last 12 months: none.
As far as I can tell, we're down to just one player even on a 2015 roster, albeit its Taveras in the Mexican league.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season. Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game. He was released after the season and retired.
2009 (9 players)
Total Players used: 25 position, 30 pitchers, 55 total. 9/55 = 16.3% never appeared again
Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010. Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.
Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013
Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013
Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012. He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason. Was a pitching coach for the Cubs organization; not sure where he is (if anywhere) for 2015.
Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA'd in July 2009
Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014. Nowhere for 2015, yet…
Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014. Nowhere for 2015, yet…
Still a couple guys active in the Mexican league, possibly, for 2015.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game. He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010. He didn't make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released. Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.
It wouldn't be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn't briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though. I think its safe to assume that he's the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.
Total Players used: 25 position, 25 pitchers, 50 total. 8/50 = 16% never appeared again
Kory Casto; 2009 AAA, 2010 in Ariz AA, retired.
Dmitri Young: some rehab in low minors 2009, retired.
Rob Mackowiak: 2009: some indy, bounced around AAA, that's it.
Johnny Estrada; quit after 2008 mid-season release.
Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned (see below)
Levale Speigner; 2009 in Florida's AA/AAA, then 2010 in Seattle AAA. done.
Ray King; retired after 2008
Chris Schroder; 2009, 2010 bounced around AAA with Oakland, Fla.
Changes in last 12 months: none
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I'm tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that's saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium. He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said "fine with us" and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I'm not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.
Nook Logan; indy league 2008, 2010.
Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.
D'Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009. Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012
Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released
Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired
Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.
Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.
Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.
John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.
Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.
Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010
Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007. Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues. He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate. But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds' 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August. Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik "served up" the homer. If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer. Bacsik didn't purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren't going to get pulverized.
A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008's spring training. He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings. He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history). He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn't answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May. I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung 'em up.
Total Players used: 28 position, 29 pitchers, 57 total. 20/57 = 35% never appeared again
Damian Jackson; dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9
Bernie Castro: AAA all of 2007, 8 then retired.
Alex Escobar: Wash minors 2007-8, then retired.
Brandon Harper: Wash AAA all of 2007, then released/retired.
Wiki Gonzalez: CWS AAA all of 2007, indy league 2008, retired.
Henry Mateo: AAA or Indy league 2007-2009, mexican league from 2010-current 2013
George Lombard: AAA 2007-9, some indy league, retired.
Mike Vento: 2007 Wash AAA, indy league 2008, back with Syracuse 2009, retired.
Melvin Dorta; various minor leagues 2007-2010, indy league 2011, retired.
Luis Matos: AAA 2007, Mexican League 2008-2012. ? 2013
Pedro Astacio; retired after 2006
Felix Rodriguez: dnp 2007, indy league 2008-9, retired.
Zach Day: AAA 2007, briefly A+ 2008, retired.
Beltran Perez; wash minors AA/AAA 2007-8, released and never played again.
Joey Eischen; released off of Washington and retired.
Travis Hughes; AAA in 2007, played in Japan 2008, indy leagues 2009, 2011.
Ryan Drese: various minor leagues 2007-8, indy league 2009-2010, Baltimore AAA 2011, released/retired.
Kevin Gryboski: AAA 2007-2008, retired/released.
Brett Campbell: Wash AA 2007, released/retired.
Santiago Ramirez: Japan in 2007, Mexican league 2008, indy 2009, retired.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a "character" in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google "Joey Eischen quotes" and you'll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.
Carlos Baerga; retired after 2005
Junior Spivey: bounced around AAA 2006-7, indy ball in 2009, retired.
Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present.
Wil Cordero; released mid 2005, signed on with the NY Mets but never made it out of AAA. Retired after 2005.
Deivi Cruz; released after 2005, cut from St. Louis 2006 ST, played indy ball, retired.
Jeffrey Hammonds; retired in June 2005 mid-season.
J.J. Davis: Traded to Colorado as part of the Preston Wilson deal, sent to Colorado's AAA, then released after the season and never played again.
Rick Short; Granted FA after the 2005 season to play in Japan, played there til 2009.
Kenny Kelly; AAA in 2006 and 2007, released and retired.
Keith Osik; a backup catcher, got 4 ABs in 2005, released and retired.
Tyrell Godwin; after just THREE MLB at-bats in 2005, spent all of 2006 and 2007 in AAA, released and retired.
T.J. Tucker; released after 2005, tried one year of indy ball in 2008, retired.
Joe Horgan; released after 2005, played one year of AAA with Florida, released, retired.
Matt White; AAA in 2006-7, Japan 2007-8, tried indy ball in 2010, hung 'em up.
C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012. Not signed for 2013
Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams. He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up. In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he'd played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.
Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights. He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench. In 2006 he couldn't even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A. After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether. He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today. You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.
Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s. He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung 'em up after a slow start here. He was only 34 when he retired.
Tagged with alex cintron, alex cora, alex escobar, antonio osuna, arnie munoz, atahualpa severino, barry bonds, beltran perez, bernie castro, bill bray, brad lidge, brandon harper, brandon watson, brett campbell, brett carroll, brian broderick, carlos baerga, carlos maldonado, chad tracy, chris booker, chris marrero, chris schroder, cj nitkowski, cole kimball, corey brown, damian jackson, dangelo jimenez, deivi cruz, dmitri young, drew storen, elijah dukes, erik davis, eury perez, felix rodriguez, garrett mock, george lombard, greg dobbs, henry mateo, ivan rodriguez, jamie burke, jason bergmann, jason simontacchi, jd martin, jeff kobernus, jeffrey hammonds, jerry hairston, jesse english, jesus flores, jhonatan solano, jim bowden, jj davis, joe bisenius, joe horgan, joey eischen, john patterson, johnny estrada, jorge padilla, julian tavarez, junior spivey, keith osik, kenny kelly, kevin frandsen, kevin gryboski, kevin mench, kory casto, levale speigner, luis atilano, luis matos, mark zuckerman, matt chico, matt stairs, matt white, melvin dorta, michael restovich, mike bacsik, mike hinckley, mike rizzo, mike vento, nate schierholtz, nathan karns, nook logan, odalis perez, pedro astacio, rafael soriano, ray king, rick short, rob mackowiak, robert fick, ron villone, roy halladay, ryan drese, ryan mattheus, ryan perry, ryan wagner, santiago ramirez, scott hairston, scott olsen, steven shell, taylor hill, tj tucker, tony batista, tony blanco, travis hughes, tyler clippard, tyler walker, tyrell godwin, victor garate, wiki gonzalez, wil cordero, willy taveras, yunesky maya, zach day, zack segovia
National High School Baseball Powers
(Useless blog information: this is my 700th post!)
USA Today just came out with their pre-season 2014 top -25 High School Baseball rankings (to go along with Baseball America's pre-season top 50 and Maxpreps.com's top 100 pre-season rankings), and a number of familiar national High Schools are on the various lists. I thought it was a good time to publish the review of Local and National high school baseball powers that I've had in draft status for a while.
I touched on the topic of High Schools who consistently generate talent briefly in January 2013, when I penned a post delving into the best players the State of Virginia has produced. If you're interested in the best producing Virginia High Schools there's a section in that January 2013 post on the topic. Despite having some significant talent come out of the state recently, there is no high school in our area that comes close to producing what some of these schools in Florida, California and Texas do. At the bottom here I'll talk briefly about significant local schools.
Lets take a look at some of these baseball factories and look at some of the big-time talent they've produced lately. I'll freely admit that this is mostly analysis of teams that have been good lately … but i've tried not to fall into the habit of picking a team that just happens to be good now by looking at the performances of these teams over the past 4-5 years. Suffice it to say; one class of great players can make a team very highly ranked for a year or two, but you need to consistently develop players to constantly be considered among the best programs in the country.
Here we go. In each case if they're pre-season ranked I'll use a quick short-hand so as not to repeat typing the same things over and over. (X,Y,Z) after each high school mean's the team is pre-season ranked by in order by USA Today, Baseball America and Max Preps.
Archbishop McCarthy HS, Southwest Ranches, Fla (#1,7,1); They have won four consecutive Florida 6a titles and are the 2014 preseason#1 ranked team by USA-Today They've had no less than eight draftees in the last four drafts, including two first rounders (presumptive 3B starter in Detroit Nick Castellanos and Nick Travieso in 2012). This is a seriously good baseball program.
Harvard-Westlake HS in Studio City, California (Los Angeles) (7,8,7). Alma Mater of our own Lucas Giolito, but was also home to another 2012 first round pick Max Fried. Can you imagine a high school team with two first round pitching prospects? Also the alma mater of current MLBers Josh Satin and Brennan Boesch, both of whom were drafted out of Cal-Berkeley, and 2013 2nd round pick Austin Wilson out of Stanford. A good pedigree of recent high-end talent.
The Woodlands HS in The Woodlands, Texas (#29,NR,NR). Alma Mater to 2011 #2 overall pick Jamison Taillon and 2011 3rd round pitcher Bryan Brickhouse. More recently, home to 2013 3rd rounder Carter Hope. All three of these guys were big-time right-handed pitching prospects. Also home to two current MLBers: Kyle Drabek (a 2006 1st round pick) and Paul Goldschmidt (an 8th round pick after going to college). They're a bit down this year, but have been highly ranked for years. Defending Texas 5-A champs, no small feat.
American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla. (#3,24,14). Began gaining notice after producing both #3 overall 2008 pick Eric Hosmer and (former) Nats prospect Adrian Nieto in 2008; since has produced another 6-8 draft prospects. Enters 2014 with a preseason #3 ranking from Usa-Today and should match up well with Archbishop McCarthy (if they are scheduled to play).
Owasso (Okla.) HS. (#4,4,2) 2014 Preseason USA-today #4 team who went 36-0 last season and returns seven starters. Recent alumni include two first round draftees in St. Louis' Pete Kozma and the likely more impactful Dylan Bundy, Baltimore's #1 prospect, who reached the majors by age 20 and is currently rehabbing a Tommy John injury.
Barbe HS, Lake Charles, LA (#8,6,6). Getting some pre-season 2014 credit thanks to a slew of Division 1-signed talent; had three players drafted from its 2010 team. Of local interest to yours truly because Lake Charles is where my wife hails from and where we go married.
Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas: (#12,13,9) his sports powerhouse is also routinely nationally ranked in Football and Basketball, and has matriculated a handful of local players lately (including supplemental 1st rounder Joey Gallo in 2012). They were the defending Nevada state champions seven times before losing in the final last year. This is not however the alma-mater of our own Bryce Harper: he went to Las Vegas HS, which doesn't have nearly the alumni pedigree as Gorman.
Archbishop Moeller HS, Cincinnati (#17,30,10). Moeller has a very rich history; its alums include Buddy Bell and his sons, Ken Griffey Jr and Barry Larkin. They've had at least 11 alumni play pro-ball. And they're back in the national scene, ranked #17 pre-season by USA-Today for 2014.
Rancho Bernardo, San Diego: (NR, #3, #24): this school's nickname is "the Factory," so I had to put it in here. Home to 3 current major leaguers (including Cole Hamels) and a whole slew of recent draftees.
Venice (Fla.) HS (#15,1,4). A johnny come-lately to the party: they're also a defending Florida state champ (in a different class than Archbishop McCarthy) and are the #1 ranked pre-season team by Baseball America. Not a ton of alumni history here, but they are #1 in one of the three main publications i'm using as reference here.
Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS (NR,#15,NR): Broken Arrow had three members of its 2011 team picked, including upper 1st round talent Archie Bradley. They've had a few MLB alumni and are routinely in the latter stages of the Oklahoma state tournament.
St. Francis HS Mountain View, CA (#27,2,12): some interesting spread between the three rankings for St. Francis, based in Mountain View, CA. They have a slew of alumni currently playing college or pro ball and are #2 in Baseball America's pre-season rankings for 2014.
Seton Hall Prep, West Orange NJ: (NR on any 2014 list) the rare cold-weather school with significant pro matriculation. Detroit's Rick Porcello hails from Seton Hall Prep, though the most famous New Jersey native in the majors (Mike Trout) attended a different HS (Milleville HS) and is the first player from his HS to make the majors since the 1940s.
Some of the all-time great producing High Schools not already mentioned:
Hillsborough HS in Tampa (NR on any 2014 list) boasts 41 pro alumni and 10 with MLB experience, including Gary Sheffield, Dwight Gooden, Carl Everett and former Nat Elijah Dukes.
Jesuit HS, Tampa: (#26,NR,NR). Another high school in Tampa that has a huge alumni base in pro ball; 10 major leaguers and 74 players in pro-ball (per baseball cube).
Lakewood HS in Orange County (NR on any 2014 list) has 57 pro alumni and 12 MLB experienced players, though not nearly of the name quality of Hillsborough's graduates. However, it has had a great run as of late, having graduates play in three straight World Series.
Sarasota HS in Florida (#37,NR,NR) also boasts 57 pro player alumni, 14 MLB pros including our own Ian Desmond.
There's a HS in Oakland called McClymonds that has two Hall of Fame alumni (Frank Robinson and Ernie Lombardi), a host of other famous names from 60s and 70s but which hasn't generated a pro player since the mid 1970s. Per its wikipedia page it only has about 250 students now; I wonder if they even still field a baseball team.
Polytechnic HS in Long Beach (NR on any 2014 list) has 47 pro alumni but an astonishing 18 guys with MLB experience, headlined by Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn and possibly future hall of famer Chase Utley.
Mater Dei HS, Santa Ana, Calif. (NR on any 2014 list): 9 major leaguers among at least 40 pro alumni, including Washington's Danny Espinosa.
Special Mention: the Puerto Rican Baseball Academy is technically a high school and easily has the highest number of drafted players (111 in baseball Cube's records). Most recently, 1-1 pick Carlos Correa is an alumni, though he's one of just two 1st rounders out of this school that I can see.
DC Area Local
Its hard to say if there's a local "baseball factory" school; certainly one does not exist like the Florida and California schools mentioned here. But there are a couple of programs in the DC area who play significant schedules and who recruit heavily in the baseball circles:
Riverdale Baptist HS, Upper Marlboro MD. They have quite a few players in the NCAA ranks but few who have lasted long in the pros.
St. John's HS (Washington, DC); they've had some recent draft success and have sent players to good schools.
Past these two schools, it does seem like certain local public programs are always doing well. Dematha is getting some national ranking mentions pre-season but doesn't have the baseball pedigree that they have in Football and Basketball. Vienna programs Oakton and Madison HS are constantly in the mix locally and state-wide, a product of a fabulous youth program that feeds into both those schools. Finally, the two largest schools in the area (Lake Braddock and Robinson) routinely advance far in the regional tournaments, thanks in part to an enrollment that rivals some colleges. But they're hardly "factories" like the above school, nor do they put out the kind of upper-end players that Florida and California schools can.
For some historical perspective, here's a slew of links to pre- and post-season rankings that i've collected for the past few years, with #1 national team and any local schools noted.
2014 USA Today pre-season top -25 High School Baseball rankings: Archbishop McCarthy #1, Great Bridge and Hanover in the #40s from Virginia.
2014 Baseball America's pre-season top 50:Venice HS in Florida #1, defending VA state champ Hanover in Mechanicsburg is #18, Baltimore's Calvert Hall #35. St. John's in DC #47.
2014 Maxpreps.com's top 100 pre-season rankings: Archbishop McCarthy #1. Hanover #19, Great Bridge #26.
2013 Baseball America final HS top 25 rankings: Harvard-Westlake #1. Virginia schools Madison and Great Bridge dropped out after losses in regional tourneys. VA State champ Hanover not ranked in the top 25 after their upset state championship.
2013 MaxPreps Final top 50: Pensacola, FL #1 overall.
2012 Baseball America final HS top 25 rankings: Parkview (GA) #1. Lake Braddock finishes #31 after winning VA state title.
2011 Baseball America final HS top 25 rankings: Archbishop McCarthy #1. Great Bridge #28, South County #37 after suffering its only loss on the season to Great Bridge in the final.
2010 Baseball America/Baseball Coaches of America final top 50. Flanagan HS in Florida #1. West Springfield HS #24, Woodbridge #32 after West Springfield beat Woodbridge in the state final.
2010 MaxPreps Final top 100: Sumrall, MS #1.
2010 Baseball America pre-season: Bellaire, TX #1. Defending VA state champ Menchville out of Newport News pre-season #6, Severna Park #25 pre-season.
Other useful links for High School baseball analysis;
Baseball-Reference.com direct link to all High Schools in the database.
TheBaseballCube.com: just search for players or schools; sometimes has better information than baseball-reference.com. Here is a direct link at Baseball Cube listing the number of alumni per high school in their database.
List of Virginia State High School Champions: all sports, but Baseball is at the top.
Did I miss any? Please discuss.
Post-publishing Update Mar 2015: digging around thebaseballcube.com, I found this link of historical rankings of HS by BA over the years. Will use this link if I ever re-visit this post.
March 6th, 2014 at 8:05 am
Posted in Draft,Local Baseball
Tagged with adrien nieto, archie bradley, barry larkin, brennan boesch, bryan brickhouse, bryce harper, buddy bell, carl everett, carter hope, cole hamels, dwight gooden, dylan bundy, elijah dukes, eric hosmer, ernie lombardi, frank robinson, gary sheffield, ian desmond, jamison taillon, joe gallo, josh satin, ken griffy jr, kyle drabek, lucas giolito, max fried, mike trout, nick castellanos, nick travieso, paul goldschmidt, pete kozma, rick porcello, tony gwynn
Is Maya going to be the latest Nats to Oblivion poster child? Photo Al Bello/Getty Images
Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled "From Nats to Oblivion." It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared on a MLB roster. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his idea, here's an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.
A large part of this post is borrowed from previous versions; click here for 2012's version of this post. A few players from our near past have re-surfaced in the majors as of late and have been removed from this list where noted; if you see any others listed here in error please let me know. But this entire list is updated post 2013 season, with the minor league/foreign league/independent league movements of oblivion candidates chronicled.
It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year's worth of players who will not fall into this "Oblivion" category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. So a 0% oblivion measure isn't a goal.
2013 (13 Candidates):
Total Players used: 23 position, 21 pitchers, 44 total. 13/44 = 29.5% candidate ratio right now. Real candidates list is just the top 5, so 5/44 = 11.36%.
Yunesky Maya; ML deal with Atlanta for 2014
Chris Marrrero: ML deal with Baltimore for 2014
Chad Tracy: still a FA; highly unlikely to get a major league deal after his awful 2013.
Corey Brown: DFA'd, traded to Oakland
Fernando Abad; DFA'd, traded to Oakland
Less likely "candidates" from the 2013 team:
Danny Espinosa
Jhonatan Solano
Jeff Kobernus
Zach Walters
Eury Perez
Sandy Leon
Nathan Karns
Erik Davis
The top 5 players are really the "candidates" out of the 2013 team. Every one of the guys in the lower section is on our 40-man roster, meaning they all likely see time this coming season. In fact, right now the odds are that at least a couple of these guys will make the opening day roster. So really the oblivion candidates here are just the top 5 guys, but we'll track all 13 until they're cleared off this list. Both the guys we traded to Oakland sit on their 40-man roster, but both seem in serious jeopardy of being DFA'd again at some point in the spring (especially Corey Brown, who is out of options).
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo's first foray into the Cuban exile market. Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize. He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter. He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse's lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there inbetween infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was "just" $8M). This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he's shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter.
Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, no MLB appearances
Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, no MLB appearances
Ryan Perry: Wash AAA and AA 2013
Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013
In the past 12 months, we've removed 3 players from this list (Izturas, Wang and Brown) who re-appeared on MLB rosters either here or elsewhere. I still think its possible that Flores could re-appear on an MLB roster at some point; catchers have a way of getting hurt and causing organizations to scramble. The rest face pretty long odds.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly. When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I'll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn't work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn't work out that way.
Ivan Rodriguez – retired after 2011
Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA'd off 40-man roster.
Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013
Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA'd off 40-man in 2012, KC AAA for 2013, signed ML deal with Atlanta for 2014 (thanks John C).
As with the 2012 candidates, I wouldn't be surprised to see this list get lowered by one eventually; Severino seems like he could work his way back into a loogy situation for a club. Kimball's DFA and Broderick's pending MLFA status both make it seem like their chances of returning to the majors are slim.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I've never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehimently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory.
Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013
Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, never signed for 2013
Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, never signed for 2013
JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013
Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, never signed for 2012
Jesse English; indy league 2011, 2012. Mexican League 2013
Matt Chico; indy league 2012, never signed for 2013
Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, Atlanta AA/AAA for 2013
Garrett Mock: Houston AAA 2012, AZ AAA for 2013
Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013, KC AA team.
There's more than a few guys here who are still hanging on to AAA jobs but not many of them are looking promising to break onto 40-man rosters and earn call-ups.
Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012. He will appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot and is currently the pitching coach of the High-A Chicago affilliate.
Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013
Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013
Changes in last 12 months: removed Kensing and Martis after they both resurfaced on MLB teams, meaning that they both went three full seasons inbetween MLB appearances. That's why we track these guys for so long.
Johnny Estrada; flat out quit after 2008
Odalis Perez; refused his 2009 contract, never resigned
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I'm tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that's saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008; hell he was the first guy to get a start in the Nationals Stadium. He pitched well; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said "fine with us" and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I'm not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a "character" in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google "Joey eischen quotes" and you'll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up one Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. For 2013, he's listed as the pitching coach of Colorado's high-A Affiliate in Asheville.
Tagged with alex cintron, alex cora, alex escobar, antonio osuna, arnie munoz, atahualpa severino, barry bonds, beltran perez, bernie castro, bill bray, brad lidge, brandon harper, brandon watson, brett campbell, brett carroll, brian broderick, carlos baerga, carlos maldonado, chad tracy, chris booker, chris marrero, chris schroder, cj nitkowski, cole kimball, corey brown, damian jackson, dangelo jimenez, danny espinosa, deivi cruz, dmitri young, drew storen, elijah dukes, erik davis, eury perez, felix rodriguez, fernando abad, garrett mock, george lombard, henry mateo, ivan rodriguez, jamie burke, jasom simontacchi, jason bergmann, jd martin, jeff kobernus, jeffrey hammonds, jerry hairston, jesse english, jesus flores, jhonatan solano, jim bowden, jj davis, joe bisenius, joe horgan, joey eischen, john patterson, johnny estrada, jorge padilla, julian tavarez, junior spivey, keith osik, kenny kelly, kevin gryboski, kevin mench, kory casto, levale speigner, logan kensing, luis atilano, luis matos, mark zuckerman, matt chico, matt stairs, matt white, melvin dorta, michael restovich, mike bacsik, mike hinckley, mike rizzo, mike vento, nathan karns, nook logan, odalis perez, pedro astacio, ray king, rick short, rob mackowiak, robert fick, ron villone, roy halladay, ryan drese, ryan perry, ryan wagner, sandy leon, santiago ramirez, scott olsen, shairon martis, steven shell, tj tucker, tony batista, tony blanco, travis hughes, tyler clippard, tyler walker, tyrell godwin, wiki gonzalez, wil cordero, willy taveras, yunesky maya, zach day, zach walters, zack segovia
From Nats to Oblivion: updated for 2012 team
Lidge is one of the newest members of the Nats-to-Oblivion club. Photo unknown via baseballasreligion blog
Several years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman posted a fascinating analysis he titled "From Nats to Oblivion." It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared on a MLB roster. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Mark for stealing his idea, here's an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.
Now, it is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year's worth of players who fall into this "Oblivion" category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. Our 2011 team (sitting at 13.6% but likely to eventually be lower) is about as close to a 10% level as we may get; roughly 4 or 5 guys who give you at bats or innings in a given year probably won't ever play again.
For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2012 team.
Brad Lidge: Retiring post 2012
Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013
Cesar Izturis; signed ML deal with Cincinnati for 2013
Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013
Chien-Ming Wang: signed ML deal w/ New York Yankees for 2013 late
Ryan Perry: Wash AAA 2013
Corey Brown: Wash AAA 2013
I think its clear that at least a few of these guys are going to re-appear on a MLB roster at some point, so this "candidate ratio" is likely to be lowered.
Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed spectacularly. When you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I'll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one but it just didn't work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a servicable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn't work out that way.
Alex Cora — never signed in 2012
Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013
Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA'd off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013
As with the 2012 candidates, I wouldn't be surprised to see this list get lowered slightly. A couple of these guys remain in the system and Cole Kimball remains on the 40-man. Atahualpa Severino could see time if KC's loogy situation falls apart.
Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012
Luis Atilano: in CIN org, AAA in 2012, not signed by Apr 2013
Scott Olsen; in CWS org, AAA 2012, Not signed by Apr 2013
Tyler Walker; indy league 2011, no stats for 2012
Matt Chico; indy league 2012, not signed Apr 2013
Joe Bisenius; in Mexico 2011-12, no signed Apr 2013
Jason Bergmann: indy 2011, Col AAA 2012, Indy again in 2013
I had to recently remove a couple of names from this list after they re-appeared on 2013 MLB rosters (example: Justin Maxwell who was Houston's opening day center fielder. That ought to tell you all you need to know about Houston's team this year).
Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012
Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012
Shairon Martis: in Min org, AAA 2012, Minnesota's AAA 2013
Ron Villone, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012
Julian Tavarez; retired after 2009
Logan Kensing; in Pits org, AAA 2012, Col AAA 2013
Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, not signed Apr 2013
May 3rd, 2013 at 9:34 am
Posted in Nats in General,Rule-5
Tagged with atahualpa severino, barry bonds, bill bray, brad lidge, cole kimball, drew storen, elijah dukes, ivan rodriguez, jamie burke, jeffrey hammonds, jerry hairston, joey eischen, john patterson, johnny estrada, justin maxwell, mark zuckerman, matt stairs, mike bacsik, odalis perez, rick short, rob mackowiak, ron villone, roy halladay, tony blanco, tyler clippard
How good is an "All Virginia" team?
Is Virginia Native Justin Verlander the best ever player from the State? Photo unknown via rumorsandrants.com
Recently, I read a pundit who talked about how a huge percentage of baseball prospects come from relatively few states; California (mostly Southern California at that), Texas, Florida and Georgia. The Baseball America guys once talked about an "All North Carolina" team and how good it would be (BA is based in Durham, NC). It got me thinking: how good of a team could you put together of prospects with ties to Virginia? Having grown up in Virginia and having had the opportunity to play with and against a number of guys with pro ties over the years, I thought it'd be interesting to put together the "All Virginia Team."
Using mostly the handy Baseball-reference pages, I looked up players who were either born in Virginia, went to a Virginia-based high school, or played baseball at one of Virginia's universities. There's also the fantastic Baseball Cube website (www.thebaseballcube.com) that has very in-depth player databases searchable by high schools that shows every player on a professional or NCAA team by school, which sometimes has better records than B-R.com. The players here had to be active in the Majors in 2012, though as it turned out there's enough guys with Virginia ties to make a full starting team. Feedback is welcome.
Here's a roster:
C: Brandon Inge (born and HS in Lynchburg, college at VCU)
1B: Mark Reynolds (HS in Virginia Beach, college at UVA)
2B: Will Rhymes (college at W&M)
SS: Ryan Zimmerman (HS in Virginia Beach, college at UVA)
3B: David Wright (born in Norfolk, HS in Chesapeake)
LF: Michael Cuddyer (born in Norfolk, HS in Chesapeake)
CF: B.J. Upton (born in Norfok, HS in Chesapeake)
RF: Justin Upton (born in Norfok, HS in Chesapeake)
Backups: Brandon Guyer OF (HS in Herndon, college at UVA), Rich Thompson OF (college at JMU), Jeff Baker Util (HS at Garfield in Woodbridge), Brandon Snyder IB/OF (HS at Westfields in Chantilly). Erik Kratz C (college at Eastern Mennonite)
Ok, so we're a little weak up the middle. Zimmerman played SS in college but I can't find a legitimate shortstop out there. Rhymes was just signed by the Nats to a minor league deal and isn't likely to make the opening day 25-man roster save for injury. Inge hasn't caught regularly in a few years. But how about the hitting prowness of this lineup? BJ Upton-Cuddyer-Zimmerman-Wright-Justin Upton-Reynolds is a pretty powerful group. Coincidentally, I put in Kratz because I find it amazing that someone who played baseball at Eastern Mennonite is actually in the big leagues. By B-R's records, he's the SOLE alumni of that university to have ever even played professional baseball.
Starting Pitchers:
Justin Verlander (born outside of Richmond, HS in Goochland, college at ODU)
Mat Latos (born in Alexandria)
Daniel Hudson (born in Lynchburg, HS in Virginia Beach, college at ODU)
Joe Saunders (born in Falls Church, HS at West Springfield, college at Va Tech)
Tim Stauffer (college at University of Richmond)
Backup starters: Danny Hultzen (born and raised in Bethesda, college at UVA); an exception to my "active in 2012" rule but clearly the most high-profile tied-to-Virginia prospect in the game right now. John Maine (born in Fredericksburg, HS in Stafford) had a decent stint starting for the Mets, but he's yet to get back to the majors after a shoulder surgery in 2010).
A pretty good 1-2 punch, including arguably the best pitcher in the game. Hudson has some potential. Saunders is more of an innings eater lefty, but he's made a pretty good career for himself already. Stauffer had elbow surgery in August 2012 and probably isn't ready for opening day, but he's the best I could find.
Relievers:
Bill Bray (born and HS in Va Beach, college at W&M)
Javier Lopez (HS at Robinson in Fairfax, college at UVA)
Michael Schwimer (born in Fairfax, HS at St. Stephens in Alexandria, college at UVA)
Sean Doolittle (college at UVA)
Sean Marshall (born and HS in Richmond, college at VCU)
Cody Eppley (college at VCU)
Sean Camp (born in Fairfax, HS at Robinson in Fairfax, college at GMU)
Backup Relievers: BJ Rosenberg (born in Newport News), Jeremy Jeffress (born and HS in South Boston), Clay Rapada (born in Portsmouth, HS in Chesapeake, college at Virginia State). Seth Greisinger (McLean and UVA) as an honorable mention.
Not bad depth here; I suppose Marshall could close, Bray be the loogy, Camp be an 8th inning guy, Eppley a 7th inning type and the rest be middle men. I like how Sean Camp was born, raised, went to high school and played baseball in college without ever leaving Fairfax.
Other random Virginia School trivia:
What's the best producing college in Virginia? Pretty easily its UVA, with 117 pro players in B-R's database and 30 guys reaching the majors. Virginia Tech, ODU, Richmond and VCU are all grouped a bit behind UVA in terms of pro player development. Amazingly little Liberty University has matriculated 59 players to the pro ranks.
At current, UVA has 6 active alumni in the majors. William & Mary, ODU and Richmond have 2 each, and a slew of lesser baseball-playing universities have one each (all of which are mentioned above).
What's the best producing High School in Virginia? Pretty clearly the high schools in the Virginia Beach/Chesapeake area have been producing some serious baseball talent lately, but even the Upton brothers ended up going to different high schools. Both Virginia HS in Bristol and First Colonial HS in Virginia Beach list 8 pro player alumni with 2 pros each.
Closer to home in Northern Virginia: Garfield has 7 total players with Pro experience in the database, 3 of which have MLB experience. Robinson HS in Fairfax has 6 pros/3 MLB experience. Fairfax HS also has the same; 6 pros, 3 with MLB experience.
Of course, these numbers pale in comparison to some of the baseball factories in the major baseball-producing states Florida and California. Hillsborough HS in Tampa boasts 41 pro alumni and 10 with MLB experience, including Gary Sheffield, Dwight Gooden, Carl Everett and our own Elijah Dukes. Lakewood HS in Orange county has 57 pro alumni and 12 MLB experienced players, though not nearly of the name quality of Hillsborough's graduates. Sarasota HS in Florida also boasts 57 pro player alumni, 14 MLB pros including our own Ian Desmond. There's a HS in Oakland called McClymonds that has two Hall of Fame alumni (Frank Robinson and Ernie Lombardi), a host of other famous names from 60s and 70s but which hasn't generated a pro player since the mid 1970s. Lastly Polytechnic HS in Long Beach has 47 pro alumni but an astonishing 18 guys with MLB experience, headlined by Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn and possibly future hall of famer Chase Utley.
Who is the Greatest player to have Virginia Roots? You could make arguments for Verlander, Wright, Zimmerman or the Upton brothers (probably in that order), but how about one Lou Whitaker, born in Brooklyn but somehow ended up matriculating from HS in Martinsville, Virginia, where he was drafted in the 5th round by Detroit. Billy Wagner (born in Tannersville, HS in Tazewell and college at Ferrum) is another guy from Virginia with a long, successful career. Long-time Oriole Al Bumbry was born in Fredericksburg, went to HS in King George and attended Virginia State.
However, there's only one Hall of Famer with Virginia Roots that I can find: Eppa Rixley, born in Culpeper, HS in Charlottesville and he pitched for UVA before being signed as a free agent by Philadelphia. He ended up pitching 21 years in the majors and was selected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's committee in 1963 shortly after he died.
(Post publishing note: in 2015 an enterprising blogger at the hallofverygood.com put together a list of the "best baseball player" from each of the 68 teams to make the *basketball* March Madness tournament, and for the Virginia schools he mentioned Rixley as well as others. A fun read).
(Editor's Note: you may feel free to stop reading now; Below here is all pretty obscure stuff and only probably interesting to myself and my dad, or people who happen to grow up in the area and are familiar with Vienna baseball. In fact, I kind of got into a rat-hole of reminiscing for this section, thinking back to the good old days. I won't be offended :-).
My Personal experiences growing up and playing in Northern Virginia: I played Vienna youth leagues from 1977 til 1989, played in Vienna Babe Ruth and graduated from James Madison HS in Vienna in 1989 for reference.
The best player from Northern Virginia in my youth experiences was one Pete Schourek, who was two years older than me and graduated from Marshall HS in 1987. An enduring memory from my youth was watching Schourek blast a home-run to the townhouses beyond the RF fence at Marshall against Mike Nielsen (the ace of my own high school) in 1987. Schourek turned down a scholarship offer to Auburn and took 2nd round bonus money from the Mets. Schourek's career lasted 10 years in the majors and his best season was an 18-7 year that resulted in a 2nd place Cy Young finish. The word at the time was that the Dodgers wanted to draft him as a hitter; his power from the left-hand side was quite superior. I often wonder if his would have made it as a hitting prospect; he had such natural lefty power in high school. (Click here for the Connection's Schourek profile in their "top 100 athletes" series from 2000).
Other notable pro players from the 3-4 year period right around my draft year who I played against at various points:
A.J. Hernandez, who was the star of the local Herndon/Reston/McLean Babe Ruth all-star teams that had Vienna's number year after year in the late 80s. He played one year of low-A ball.
David Carroll, a tall, rangy left-hander who dominated Chantilly baseball for years. He was a 6th round pick in 1991 and made it to AAA before washing out. We played against Carroll's teams in the Credit Union in the early 90s.
Lonnie Goldberg, who was on the same HS team as Schourek at one point; played at George Mason, drafted in the later rounds and played 5 seasons of minor league ball.
Bill Pulsipher, who was a dominant player in the area and was drafted in the 2nd Round by the Mets in 1991 out of Fairfax HS. He made the Mets rotation by age 21 and looked decent before getting injured and spending the rest of his MLB career struggling in the bullpen. His b-r.com page shows his drive; he was still playing professaional Indy ball as late as 2011. (Pulsipher Connection profile from 2000).
His 1991 Fairfax HS team also had one Brian Buchanan, who was a 1st round draft pick after attending UVA and played 5 years in the majors. Imagine; one high school team with a 1st and a 2nd round draft pick in this area. Amazingly Fairfax HS didn't win anything more than its District during this time.
Robin Jennings: a 1990 graduate of Annandale who did a year of community college and the got drafted under the old Draft-and-Follow rules by the Cubs. He played in parts of four major league seasons spread across 12 minor league seasons, including his last minor league season with the Washington organization in 2007 at the age of 35, fully 4 years after last appearing in a uniform. I can't specifically recall playing against Jennings like I can recall playing against these other guys though. Maybe in fall ball.
(post-publishing edit thanks to Tom Davis in the comments): Robinson slugger Steve Dunn. He absolutely deserves to be on this list somewhere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Dunn_(1990s_first_baseman). 1988 Robinson graduate, 4th round pick by Minnesota, he played parts of two seasons in 94 and 95. The Twins released him, he played one more AAA season for Cleveland (putting up decent numbers) but either quit or was released and not picked up again.
Goldberg and Schourek, along with Marshall's #2 pitcher Steve Makranczy led Marshall to back-to-back state championship games in the late 80s. Steve played on a number of fall teams with me and still plays in the local DCMSBL league. Schourek still suits up for teams in the Industrial League, and according to a couple of random friends, plays in an ultra-competitive basketball league along side other former Division 1 players in the area.
Speaking of my own HS of the time; I was always amazed we didn't fare better. Thinking back to 1988, my HS started an entire team of guys who either went pro or played division 1 somewhere. The 3 leading pitchers played at Radford, BYU and GMU respectively, our starting catcher went to BYU. Our 1B played at William & Mary. Our middle infield combo both played at UVA. Our 3rd baseman was a full ride player at NC State. In the OF, one guy played at GMU and went pro, another guy played at Montgomery College. That's a LOT of talent on one HS team for this area, and they never advanced in the Regional tournament.
The best local player of my draft year (1989) was a fellow by the name of Doug Newstrom, born in Quantico and who went to HS at W.T. Woodson in Fairfax. He went to Arizona State and was a 7th round pick after his Junior year but never made the big leagues. Newstrom was the cornerstone of a Woodson team that went undefeated in 1989 and won the state championship (they also won in 1990). My personal experience playing against Newstrom; the fall-league baseball teams of that time period were essentially city-specific all-star teams of the guys who didn't play football, and the competition was great. The Woodson varsity team to-be in the spring of 1989 got all their guys together to get a "test run" of their team and they romped to the fall league 16-18yr old championship game. Our Vienna-based team was a rag-tag collection of guys who attended Madison, Marshall, Oakton, Paul VI and O'Connell but who had Vienna zip codes, but we were good and we also reached the championship game. It was on a cold November day at Falls Church High School. We faced off against Woodson's ace (Mark Bauch, the same guy who would go 13-0 the following spring en route to the Virginia State championship) and promptly knocked him out in the first inning without retiring a batter, racing to a 6-0 lead. Our pitcher (Jeff Ford, who attended Oakton and played college ball at a small school somewhere) tried to keep the Woodson team at bay throughout the 7 inning game, but they fought back. In the bottom of the 7th trailing 6-5 and with two outs, the Woodson team put a couple guys on and Newstrom came to bat. Newstrom connected on a towering drive to right field; I thought he had just hit a walk-off homer. Our right fielder (Steve Paasch, another Oakton graduate) reached over the RF fence, jumped and caught the ball for the 3rd out and the championship. It was one of the two or three best games I was ever a part of.
Editor Update: my memory apparently failed me: turns out Newstrom was actually a year behind me (he was born just a few months after me but was a school year behind). He led Woodson to a 2nd consecutive VA state title in 1990 before committing to ASU. I got a nice shout-out from one Rob Paine months after this post with a link to this great feature of Newstrom, with a great photo.
Best player from my high school Alma Mater (James Madison HS in Vienna): probably one Mike Wallace, who was picked straight out of high school, was in the majors by 22, and out of the majors by 26. Wallace seems like he should have played longer; he was a lefty with decent numbers both in the majors and in his final seasons in the minors. But he was retired at 28. He signed on with MASN as a baseball pundit in 2011. However it is worth mentioning one Jay Franklin, who graduated from Madison HS in 1971 and was the 2nd overall pick in that year's baseball draft. Its hard to imagine a DC-local kid at this point in the evolution of the draft ever going higher, so Franklin likely holds the title for "highest ever local draft pick" for the forseeable future. He tore up the Northwoods league and earned a call-up to the majors as an 18 year old. I'm guessing he got hurt though, because he missed the entire 1972 season. He appeared in four more minor league years before retiring at age 24, having just reached AAA. Another guy who seems like he should have played longer.
Editor addition: thanks to anonymous comment for reminding us about Bobby Brower, whose baseball-reference.com page is missing the fact that he went to Madison HS. He was one heck of an athlete, earning FOUR varsity letters his senior year of HS. He attended Duke University, playing both football and baseball before focusing on hardball. Despite being an All-ACC selection, he went undrafted, got picked up by Texas and eventually fought his way to the major league team. He was traded to the Yankees after a couple years with Texas but struggled for playing time in New York, getting dropped back to AAA where he stayed through 1990. A brief comeback in 1992 went for naught and Brower retired at the age of 32. And I'll add one Ronnie Slingerman, whose name keeps popping up during research of these early JMHS teams and who remains active in the Vienna baseball community.
Btw, the Fairfax Connection news papers featured all three of these players in their "Top 100 local Athletes" series done in the year 2000. Click here for Wallace, here for Franklin and here for Brower's bios, all three of which go in to much greater detail than I have here.
Baseball-reference.com's records are somewhat spotty on my high school; they list only 7 pro players and 2 major leaguers from my HS, but we know there are several more with pro experience, just counting guys I've directly played with (among others; Chris Burr and Billy Emerson). BaseballCube lists 28 guys in their database, though not all played pro. David Driver with The Vienna Patch did an article on Wallace in October 2012 and discussed several other Madison grads who have made the majors, some of whom are not correctly attributed in B-R.com either. One such player is Jim McNamara, who I'm familiar with because he used to substitute teach while I was attending the high school and he was famous for being manipulated into wasting an entire period talking about his baseball playing days instead of teaching any material.
Best player ever from my college Alma Mater (James Madison University): probably one Billy Sample, born and raised in Roanoke and who played at JMU from 1974-1976. He was drafted in the 10th round, played for a decade or so and hung 'em up in 1986. Mike Venafro was born in Takoma Park, went to Paul VI in Fairfax and then JMU before putting together a 7-year career in the majors, retiring back in 2006. JMU is actually a pretty decent baseball school; we've made the NCAA tournament 11 times and several times recently, and made the College World Series in 1983 (getting blasted by eventual champion Texas and Stanford for a 2-and-out appearance; the wikipedia page is funny, JMU has no "notable players" listed. Coincidentally; look at some of the talent playing in that tournament: Bonds, Schiraldi, Clemens, Larkin, Sabo, McDowell, Incavilia. Three future Hall of Famers). However I can only find one JMU alumni who appeared in the majors in 2012; the aforementioned Rich Thomas, who appears to be a 4th/5th outfielder.
Best player I played with or against post youth/High School: After high school we played in a local amateur league for a year, then put together an entry into the Credit Union, which was a powerful amateur league in the area (which is now part of the Industrial League). After a brief baseball hiatus spent mostly playing softball (there was no 19+ league in DCMSBL at the time; you had to be at least 30 to play in the league for many years), I've been playing consistently in the DCMSBL since 1998.
In the early 90s, we had a local guy named Kevin Gallaher pitch for us periodically. He had Vienna roots, went to O'Connell and then played at St. Bonaventure (none of which btw is on his baseball-reference page but is on his baseball Cube page). I got to catch Gallaher here and there and he had pretty good stuff. Apparently his stuff got better his senior year at college and he was a non-drafted FA signee. Gallaher made it to AAA before calling it quits at age 29. His next move: to appear on the reality TV show "Married by America" (it didn't work out: his bride-to-be left him at the alter).
In the Credit Union, we played against some serious talent, but I was too young to remember most of them. A couple notable names that I do remember were Steve Norwood, brother of the infamous Buffalo Bills kicker Jeff Norwood, who played alongside his father Del Norwood on the Apple team. Norwood was a local legend, a longtime coach at W&L in Arlington (he won 10 straight district titles in the 60s and 14 overall at the school; the field is named after him) and had to be in his 70s at the time but could still throw a knuckle-ball by the semi-pro calibre players of the Credit Union. Local legend amateur player Pete Groves pitched against us in the league; he now leads the Fedlock teams that have won many national MSBL titles (he supposedly reached AAA but I can't find any records of him playing pro). We picked up a random guy off a wait list named John Bonfield who had pitched at Yale; he was one of the better pitchers i've ever played along side. He could throw 8 different pitches but had a failing for "enforcing the unwritten rules of the game" at the most unideal time. He once purposely hit a guy who he thought was stealing signs with the bases loaded in a close game.
In MSBL, the best players I played against didn't necessarily have direct professional ties. The Gouveia siblings (brothers of former Redskin Kurt Gouveia were feared sluggers in the league). Garland Cooper was competitive against players half his age; he played in the Valley league but never pro. Ira Holland (who played college at Howard and was drafted before returning to school) was probably the most feared hitter in the league in the early 2000s; guys from that era still ask us about him. The ace pitcher of my current team Jason Martino signed out of HS but only played one year of rookie ball before getting set aside by his drafting team.
Anyway; if you've read this far, I hope you enjoyed my own little personal history of playing ball in this area.
January 9th, 2013 at 11:47 am
Posted in Baseball in General,Hall of Fame,Local Baseball
Tagged with aj hernandez, al bumbry, barry bonds, barry larkin, bill bray, bill pulsipher, billy emerson, billy sample, billy wagner, bj rosenberg, bj upton, bobby brower, brandon guyer, brandon inge, brandon snyder, calvin schiraldi, carl everett, chase utley, chris burr, chris sabo, clay rapada, cody eppley, daniel hudson, danny hultzen, david carroll, david driver, david wright, del norwood, doug newstrom, dwight gooden, elijah dukes, eppa rixley, erik kratz, ernie lombardi, frank robinson, garland cooper, gary sheffield, ian desmond, ira holland, jason martino, javier lopez, jay franklin, jeff baker, jeff ford, jeff norwood, jeremy jeffress, jim mcnamara, joe saunders, john bonfield, john maine, justin upton, justin verlander, kevin gallaher, kurt gouveia, lonnie goldberg, lou whitaker, mark bauch, mark reynolds, mat latos, michael cuddyer, michael schwimer, mike nielsen, mike venafro, mike wallace, oddibe mcdowell, pete groves, pete incavilia, pete schourek, rich thompson, robin jennings, roger clemens, ronnie slingerman, ryan zimmerman, sean camp, sean doolittle, sean marshall, seth greisinger, steve dunn, steve makranczy, steve norwood, steve paasch, tim stauffer, tony gwynn, will rhymes
Nats Franchise Trade history; biggest, best, worst
Was getting Gonzalez the "biggest" trade the franchise has ever made? Photo Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images via nydailynews.com
In response to a topic that came up in the comments section, I'll do a 3-part series reviewing the biggest/best/worst moves by the franchise since arriving here in Washington. We'll differentiate between Jim Bowden and Mike Rizzo moves as we go through. We'll talk about trades, then draft picks, then FA signings.
First up: Trades.
The Nats have made dozens of trades since 2005, and by my records have traded with every team in the league save for three: Baltimore, Cleveland and the Los Angeles Angels. In fact, the franchise has not done business with Baltimore in any capacity since the year 2000, a testament perhaps to the difficulties of dealing with Peter Angelos even before the team moved to Washington. Now post-relocation, the conventional wisdom is that the two teams would never do business on the off-chance that one team ended up "winning" a trade with the other.
I'll divide this post into into 3 sections: the "biggest" deal (not the most players, but the biggest impact/most news worthy), the "best" deal(s) and the "worst" deals. For Rizzo, we'll add a 4th category for "Too Early to Tell," since the big off-season trade of last season probably won't shake it self out for a few more years.
Jim Bowden Tenure: Nov 2004 – Mar 2009
2005: Soriano deal
2006: Kearns/Lopez deal
2007: Milledge deal
2008: Willingham/Olsen deal
The Alfonso Soriano move made all sorts of news; he wouldn't move to LF, threatened not to play at all, then ended up putting in a 40/40 season in a pitcher's ballpark and then resulted a host of national news as the team debated whether to trade him, re-sign him or let him go. Bowden held firm on his demands in the trade market, never traded him and landed two compensatory draft picks (which the Nats turned into Jordan Zimmermann and Josh Smoker).
The Kearns/Lopez deal, in the end, was more about moving deck chairs than making progress for either team. Bowden was obsessed with players that he knew from his Cincinnati days, and showed a proclivity to trade for or acquire them throughout his tenure here, and this deal was just the biggest example. The only player in the deal who still remains with his original team is Bill Bray, and most of the players in the deal have become large disappointments for their careers or are out of baseball. The Reds accused Bowden publically of selling them damaged goods (Gary Majewski got injured about 5 minutes after the trade was completed) and Kearns/Lopez never really lived up to anything close to their potential.
We'll talk about the other two deals below.
Best Trades
2007: Getting Tyler Clippard
2009: Getting Michael Morse
2008: Getting Willingham/Olsen
Bowden gets major credit for obtaining two core members of the current Nationals squad for almost nothing. He obtained Tyler Clippard from the Yankees for Jonathan Albaladejo in a like-for-like trade of under-performing minor league relievers. Of course we all know what's happeend since; Clippard has become a super-star setup man, the 2011 league leader in holds. Getting Michael Morse in return for sending the feeble Ryan Langerhans to Seattle in what most thought was a mercy trade at the time (i.e., trying to send good-guy Langerhans to a team that would actually play him) seems like one of the steals of the decade. Nobody thought Morse had a fraction of the potential he's now shown to have.
I include getting Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen as a win based on who we gave up: PJ Dean, Emilio Bonifacio and Jake Smolinski. I've always had a soft spot for Willingham and thought his offense potential was the key to this deal; we got two major leaguers for two dead-end minor leaguers plus a backup infielder. Luckily for the Nats, Florida was always ready to give up arbitration candidates to save a buck.
Honestly, I had a hard time really saying that I thought one of Bowden's trades was egregiously bad. Most of his deals (outside the deals mentioned above as biggest or best) were minor leaguer swaps or dumping veterans at the trade deadline. Even the acquisition of Elijah Dukes wasn't really that "bad" based on who we gave up (Glenn Gibson, who was released a couple years later by Tampa Bay and ended up back with us anyway).
However, the acquisition of Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider might be the one trade that I'd most quibble with. Bowden showed his obsession with "toolsy" and "potential" players in this deal, acquiring the malcontent Milledge and giving the Mets two immediate starters. At the time I certainly defended the deal; neither Church or Schneider were slated to be starters for the 2008 Nats so you could argue that we got a plus prospect for two backups. I know I certainly argued that point. Church seemed to be a brooding platoon outfielder who wouldn't be happy unless he was starting and Schneider had lost his starting spot to Jesus Flores and was a relatively weak hitter.
As it has worked out Church was a very productive player for New York, Flores got hurt and left the team in a very serious catcher-dearth position, and Milledge turned out to be not nearly the talent that we thought we were getting. By the time we flipped him to Pittsburgh in 2009 he was barely hitting his weight in AAA and was completely out of the picture for this team.
Mike Rizzo Tenure: Mar 2009 – present
2011: Gio Gonzalez deal
2009: Morgan/Burnett deal
2010: Ramos for Capps deal
2011: Henry Rodriguez/Willingham deal
2011: Gorzelanny deal
You have to hand it to Mike Rizzo; he's not been afraid to make deals. In his 3 year tenure he's made 5 significant deals that have vastly changed the way this team is constructed. Two of those deals (Morgan/Burnett and the Willingham deals) were mostly about cleaning up the roster to get it more in his image of pro-clubhouse guys and pro-defense. Trading away Milledge and Willingham succeeded in moving the team towards these goals. The Gorzelanny and Gonzalez trades were about acquiring power arms to shore up the rotation, another tenant of Rizzo-constructed teams.
2010: getting Wilson Ramos
Clearly Rizzo's best move was stealing Wilson Ramos for a closer (Matt Capps) that we had ample candidates for internally. The Twins panicked post-Joe Nathan injury and overloaded their bullpen with closer candidates. Meanwhile Rizzo turned an astute FA signing (a minor league signing that turned into an All Star) into an even more astute trade by getting a nearly MLB-ready catcher in return for a guy who the team wouldn't be re-signing anyway. Great move.
2011: Gomes for Rhinehart/Manno
2009: Bruney for ptbnl (eventually rule5 top pick Jamie Hoffman)
Most readers here loved Christopher Manno and the promise he was showing in A-ball. Most were also aghast to see Manno go the other way to Cincinnati for a 4th outfielder Jonny Gomes. At the time, the argument was that Davey Johnson wanted a bat off the bench and that the team needed some OF depth. What really happened was that Gomes hit his way out of his type-B arbitration status and played so poorly the 2nd half of 2011 that the team couldn't dare offer him arbitration to get a compensatory draft pick. So we traded two decent prospects for a half season of awful production. Not a good move.
Even worse, trading anything to acquire Brian Bruney. The team acquired Bruney, promptly argued against him and beat him in arbitration, and then (unsurprisingly) Bruney vastly underperformed until being flat out released a few months into the 2010 season. For me this is a lesson in what not to do with your arbitration eligible players. It wasn't so much what we gave up (the first pick in the rule-5 draft *could* have been used to acquire someone of value), it was what we got in return.
Too Early to Tell Trades
Pro-prospect pundits (anyone at Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, etc) will already tell you that the Nats vastly overpaid for Gio Gonzalez. That's because they value the potential of prospects more than the proven commodity of the major league player. But the fact is this; you KNOW what you're getting in Gonzalez but you have no idea how a low-A prospect will play out. The Nats rolled the dice that AJ Cole isn't going to turn into the next incarnation of Justin Verlander and that Brad Peacock's promise will peak as a middle reliever. The only way to tell how this trade turns out is to track the progress of those players we gave up versus what Gonzalez does for this team over the next 3-4 years.
Thoughts? Any trades out there that stick in your minds that you thought should be mentioned?
Tagged with aj cole, alfonso soriano, austin kearns, bill bray, bill rhinehart, brad peacock, brian bruney, brian schneider, christopher manno, davey johnson, elijah dukes, emilio bonifacio, felipe lopez, gary majewski, gio gonzalez, glenn gibson, henry rodriguez, jake smolinski, jamie hoffman, jesus flores, jim bowden, joe nathan, jonathan albaldejo, jonny gomes, jordan zimmermann, josh smoker, josh willingham, justin verlander, keith law, lastings milledge, matt capps, michael morse, mike rizzo, nyjer morgan, peter angelos, pj dean, ryan church, ryan langerhans, scott olsen, sean burnett, tom gorzelanny, tyler clippard, wilson ramos
Edmonds or Sheffield for the Hall?
Will Jim Edmonds' defensive capabilities lift him to HoF status? Photo: www.vivaelbirdos.com
I know it is cliche, and that every baseball writer pens the same article whenever a big name retires. But these opinion pieces are still fun to write and argue about. So argue away.
Within the past week, two notable hitters hung up their spikes. Gary Sheffield was forced to admit (much like Barry Bonds, Jermaine Dye and other aging DH-only players quickly being obsoleted in the fast, new, young MLB) that no team would hire him after sitting out all of 2010 and officially filed the paperwork with the league. Meanwhile, Jim Edmonds retired from a lingering achilles heel injury that prevented him from suiting up in 2011.
For the sake of this article, we will exclude consideration of the fact that Sheffield has admitted to PED/Steroids use and thus probably faces little chance of making the hall. Lets talk about their performances on the field.
Case 1: Gary Sheffield
Sheffield hails from the famous Hillsborough High School in Tampa, which also produced the likes of Dwight Gooden, Carl Everett and (infamously) Elijah Dukes. Sheffield's career numbers are strong. He retires with a CAREER OPS+ of 140. That's essentially an entire career of production at the average level of what Ryan Zimmerman gave the Nats last season. He hit more than 500 homers while also having more than 250 stolen bases. He has a career slash line of .292/.393/.514, which is also great. His hall of fame monitor and standard scores (Bill James' creations that try to measure whether a player is HoF worth) both easily put him in. His closest comparison on baseball-reference is Mel Ott. That's heady company.
Awards: 9 times an all star, 7 times getting MVP votes (a 2nd, two 3rd and a 6th place finish). 5 silver sluggers. Played 3B early, RF middle and LF/DH late in his career. His best season was in 1997, finishing with a ridiculous 189 OPS+ for the Marlins but only finishing 6th in the MVP voting.
Beyond the Boxscore printed out an interesting Visual Hall of Fame graphic that essentially shows that Sheffield's best seasons of his 22-yr career were in the latter part of his career, consistent with a steroids user who was able to beat back the hands of time and not diminish as he aged. In the same way that Bonds did not tail off as he entered his late 30s.
Regardless of the steroids, I think he's a hall of fame player. He was a feared, ferocious hitter who clearly had 5-tools (though not quite at the 5-tool level of someone like Willie Mays or Ken Griffey). He was a game changer who bounced around the league but produced wherever he was. Unfortunately because of a prickly relationship with sports writers and implications in the BALCO scandal, his only chance of entrance will be 30 years from now by a veteran's committee. He'll be on a very busy 2014 hall of fame ballot (other first timers on that ballot include near locks Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, and Tom Glavine, along with borderline cases Jeff Kent and Mike Mussina).
Case 2: Jim Edmonds
Edmond's case is less about pure offensive merit but weighing the benefits of a player who can produce at a high offensive level AND provide fantastic defense. Edmond's career offensive numbers are good but not amazing; in 17 major league seasons he hit 393 homers, had a respectable career slash line of .284/.376/ .527, and a career OPS of 132.
Those numbers compare pretty favorably to Sheffield's career lines when you consider that Edmonds was considered among the best 2-3 outfielders in the game for the middle 10 years of his career. He earned 8 gold gloves for his work in centerfield and has a litany of high-light reel catches to his credit. He was excellent defensively but this did not correlate to raw speed on the base-paths; he retired with only 67 stolen bases for his career, averaging just four a year. His diving catches helped contribute to his demise; he was frequently injured, missed the entirety of 2009 and hung it up because he was not going to be medically cleared to play this year.
Career Achievements: 8th in his Rookie voting, 4 time all star, 6 times receiving MVP votes (a 4th and a 5th place vote his best achievements).
Bill James' Hall of Fame metrics are not quite as kind to Edmonds; he falls short in both the Monitor and the Standard. His most similar player comparison is to one Ellis Burks, not really a flattering comparison.
Is he a hall of famer? I say "probably." When grading the defensively minded players (shortstops, catchers and athletic center fielders) you have to balance offensive and defensive. With Edmonds, he's nearly the hitter of Sheffield with fantastic defense. I'm concerned by the lack of MVP consideration, and lack of all-star selections. If a player isn't routinely considered among the best players in the game, how can he be a hall of famer?
He'll be on the 2015 ballot along with first timers (and locks) Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz. So he may have to wait to get in but he should merit it.
Posted in Baseball in General,Hall of Fame
Tagged with barry bonds, carl everett, dwight gooden, elijah dukes, ellis burks, frank thomas, garry sheffield, greg maddux, jeff kent, jermaine dye, jim edmonds, john smoltz, ken griffey jr, mel ott, mike mussina, pedro martinez, randy johnson, ryan zimmerman, tom glavine, willie mays
Rule 5 Protection Decisions for 2010
You may not know who Brad Meyers is now, but he may be pitching for the Nats before you know it. Photo Rodger M. Wood/Wood Sports Photography
The Nats (and every other team) face an 11/19/10 deadline to add Rule5 eligible players that we want to protect to our 40-man roster. (Coincidentally, I maintain a spreadsheet online of key MLB off-season dates and their implications for the team. The link is also available in the "NatsArm Creations" section on the links section to the right of this page). NatsInsider.com writer Zuckerman beat me to the punch on this topic (which I wrote up last weekend but forgot to publish), but here's some similar analysis.
Last year we added three players on 11/19/09 to protect them from the Rule5 Draft:
Juan Jaime, rhp
Aaron Thompson, lhp
Atahualpa Severino, lhp
Nats bloggers/analysts at the time surmised that we were gambling by not putting on guys like Erik Arneson and Hassan Pena or even local favorite Josh Wilkie (especially after he appeared in 2009's Arizona Fall League), but we only ended up losing Zech Zinicola to the Rule5 draft. We lost him to Toronto, who had former Nationals executive Dana Brown picking up a player he was familiar with. Toronto eventually returned Zinicola to the franchise, and he split time between AA and AAA as a middle reliever.
Ironically, two of last year's Rule5 protection players are now candidates to be dropped OFF the 40-man just one year later because of Injury (in Jaime's case) or performance (in Thompson's case). Severino had a very nice season and should be in the mix to be the LOOGY out of the MLB bullpen in 2011. In fact, Jaime was taken off the 40-man on 11/18/10 for just this reason.
This year, we definitely face a number of interesting choices on what prospects to protect. RIP NatsFarmAuthority, but at least Brian Oliver has not taken down the Draft Tracker xls, so we can see who is 2010 Rule5 eligible. Here's the list of guys who are at risk with some thoughts in this year's rule5 draft. Remember; any team that grabs one of these guys has to keep them on their MLB roster for the entire 2011 season, so the analysis is based on who realistically is in jeopardy of this situation happening with. These are ordered by the team that they played the majority of 2010 with:
Whiting, Boomer OF: light hitting speedy center fielder. A .313 slugging percentage in the weaker AAA league just isn't going to cut it. He's not in the mix for even a backup OF spot in the majors and seems destined to be an organizational guy/career minor leaguer.
Mandel, Jeff RHP: a decent starter for the Nats over the past couple of seasons who moved to the bullpen in Syracuse towards the end of the season. He's not overpowering and not a high K/9 guy, and seems to be now a middle relief guy at best. Might be worth the protection since he may be a candidate for the 2011 MLB bullpen.
Wilkie, Josh RHP: I didn't initially have Wilkie on the list, since we got him as an undrafted FA. Zuckerman noted that he is rule5 eligible so we'll discuss. He has definitely performed for this franchise through the years, and was showcased in the 2010 AFL. Having just finished his 5th professional season, he has methodically moved up the ranks and spent the entire 2010 in Syracuse. He's a middle reliever, a righty, with a good BA against and good peripheral numbers. Is this worth protection in the draft? Perhaps. I feel he could compete for a spot in the MLB bullpen in 2011 but he's behind several other proven right handed throwers and may be destined for AAA again.
Rhinehart, Bill 1B/OF: demoted towards the end of the season to Potomac. Now a 26-yr old guy who hasn't been successful above High-A. Days are numbered.
Marrero, Chris 1B/OF: our first round draft pick in 2006 and pretty much the sole first baseman prospect in the system. He played a full season at AA and put up a decent line (.294/.350/.450) with 18 homers as a relatively young player in the league (he turned 22 in July). I don't know if he can turn into a producer at the MLB level and a large FA contract to Dunn or Pena could block him even further. But he merits protection until we find out what we have with him.
Peacock, Brad RHP: He has been a decently effective starter for the team on multiple levels, this year stepping it up in terms of K/9. He's at the Arizona Fall League working out of the bullpen and is putting up similar numbers there that he did in the regular season (good k/9 numbers but an eras in the mid 4s). Putting Peacock in the AFL surely will increase his visibility, but his mediocre performance there probably guarantees his safety in the Rule5 draft. No need to protect him, but we hope he turns into a decent middle relief option in a couple years. 11/20/10 Correction; as noted by Kilgore here, Peacock's Draft-Follow-Evaluate status means he gets one extra year. We'll revist in 2011.
Meyers, Brad RHP. Meyers was the ace of the 2009 league winning Potomac staff and was named the Nats minor league pitcher of the year. For 2010 he moved up to Harrisburg and was dominant in his first 6 starts there (1.47 era, 35 ks in 30 innings and under a 1.00 whip) before going down with complications to foot surgery and failing to pitch the rest of the season. Because of this injury he seems a safe bet NOT to need protection despite his capabilities; no team is going to guarantee a 25-man roster spot all season to a guy who hasn't pitched since June and who has never appeared above AA. But we may want to be safer than sorry.
Solano, Jhonatan C: another who I didn't initially have on this list, the Nats got him as an undrafted FA in 2006 and he is rule5 eligible. While you never like to lose catching depth out of your system, suddenly the Nats are swimming in it. We have 4 catchers on the 40-man right now, and that's two too many for the MLB roster as it is. We are probably non-tendering Nieves at some point but that means one of Flores or Ramos is starting in AAA. Derek Norris is definitely moving up to Harrisburg for 2011, so that means Solano is designed to be a backup either way. He's not going to get picked up in a rule5 draft, so we can leave him unprotected.
Potomac, Hagerstown or Vermont. It is really difficult to think that any player at A-ball or below is seriously a candidate to be taken in the Rule5 draft, but we'll zip through the candidates.
Alaniz, Adrian RHP: put up pretty good numbers at Potomac after losing out in a rotational numbers game in spring training. Has now spent parts of 3 straight seasons in Harrisburg but cannot stick. He's getting too old for A ball though and might need to show something out of spring to keep a pitching job.
Phillabaum, Justin RHP: he's a later-innings/8th inning guy who got hit very hard this year in Potomac.
Beno, Martin RHP: no progress for the righty, having played the entire 2009 and 2010 seasons in high-A.
Gibson, Glenn RHP: traded to the Rays to obtain Elijah Dukes and then released. I guess the Nats picked him back up because they liked him enough to draft him in the first place. Assigned to Hagerstown, demoted to Vermont after putting up an 8+ ERA. Not a prospect.
Erb, Shane RHP: he posted a 6.19 era at low-A this year, the LOWEST ERA he's had in 3 years in the system. Days are numbered in the organization.
King, Stephen 3B: struggled between short and low A this year, and possibly still held in contempt by the organization for a 50-game drug suspension that cost him the early part of the year. May be out of a job soon.
Lyons, Dan, 3B: Batted .223 between low-A and high-A as a 26 year old. Clearly too old for either level and may be outright released.
If I were the Nats i'd protect Mandel, Marrero and Meyers to be safe. With the Jaime move that would put us exactly at 40/40 on the 40-man. At that point we possibly consider adding in Peacock or Wilkie but probably not: if one or the other of these two needed to go on, we have a few guys who could be dumped off the 40-man and probably would clear waivers.
11/20/10 update: The Nats chose to protect Marrero, Adam Carr and Cole Kimball. In retrospect, I suppose I should have taken guys like Carr and Kimball into account. They first became rule5 eligible last year and were not protected, and were not selected. In the year since both have become valuable power arms out of the bullpen and are leading candidates to compete with and/or replace the likes of Batista, Peralta and Walker in the 2011 bullpen. Next year 🙂
Posted in Minor League Pitching,Nats in General,Rule-5
Tagged with aaron thompson, adam carr, adrian alaniz, atahualpa severino, bill rhinehart, boomer whiting, brad meyers, brad peacock, brian oliver, chris marrero, cole kimball, dan lyons, dana brown, derek norris, elijah dukes, erik arneson, glenn gibzon, hassan pena, jeff mandel, jhonatan solano, josh wilkie, juan jaime, justin phillabaum, mark zuckerman, martin beno, shane erb, stephen king, zech zinicola