'The breakdown in trust in the government is deep, and critically, they don't think the new PM will change the government's priorities in any substantial way' Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP
The Guardian Essential Report
A new skipper alone is not enough to steer the government to safe harbour
The election will be fought on the big issues about the future of the nation, not who is the more likeable prime minister
@PeterLewisEMC
Mon 10 Sep 2018 22.43 EDT
After its latest mutiny the Coalition government is taking on water with its vessel leaking terribly as new skipper Scott Morrison valiantly attempts to take charge of the bridge.
Having seen the last captain and first mate unceremoniously lobbed overboard, more crew members are preparing to abandon the sinking ship, having given up hope of ever finding a course to safe harbour.
Voters punish Coalition over leadership change in Guardian Essential poll
For those of us who wish to see our ship of state veer towards port, the temptation now is to double down on the new captain and focus on his manifest limitations. Having seen first Tony Abbott and then Malcolm Turnbull walk the plank, we know that swallow the leader has become an effective strategy to disrupt and disable governments outside the usual electoral cycle.
There's no denying there is a lot to work with this time as well: the new skipper's cloying social conservatism, his dorky lump of coal stunt, his manipulation of border protection for political advantage, his vigorous embrace of tax loopholes for the elites, the weird way his mouth does an upside down smile when he thinks he's made a good point.
But findings in this week's Essential Report, backed by qualitative research Essential has conducted over recent weeks, suggest this approach could be counterproductive. While the Coalition primary vote has taken a significant hit, the approvals and comparisons on leadership have not been as damaging. In fact, on preferred PM and personal attributes Morrison is leading opposition leader Bill Shorten.
I reckon there are few reasons for this. First, unlike previous assassins, Morrison can credibly claim his hand was nowhere near the trigger. In fact, he is the man who saved Australia from the au pair's number one advocate, Peter Dutton.
There are only two boats in this race. One is heading for the finish line with the wind in it sails. The other has been knocked off course
Secondly, if Turnbull's failure was at least in part because he was the personification of wealth inequality, "Mr Harbourside Mansions" as his own side so generously dubbed him, then Morrison appears the antidote, the League-loving, daggy dad from the suburbs.
Thirdly, and critically, I think, Morrison more than any other leader in 50 years is an unknown quantity, a blank canvas in the Lodge. Of the recent PMs who took control outside an election, when the public are forced to get to know them, all have been known quantities: Julia Gillard had effectively run as a joint ticket with Kevin 07, Rudd was reclaiming what was rightfully his, Turnbull had led the Coalition in opposition. In contrast most Australians wouldn't know their Sco-Mo from their J-Lo.
Morrison is a marketing man, and if the challenge for the next six months is to define him as a good knock-about bloke or a malignant force of darkness, then my money is on him. After all as head of Tourism Australia he worked out the way to market Australia was to get a model in a bikini and tell her to swear. This time he won't just have Lara Bingle, but also the megaphone of power, the willing support of News Ltd (which you will notice no one in the Coalition is complaining about any more as they revert to their standard practice of boosting them and deriding the ALP) and the benefit of a long hot summer when we won't have the energy to maintain our rage about anything.
Allowing Morrison to make the political contest about Morrison would provide the government with a massive free passage. Because this is not about the captain any more, its about the vessel and where its taking us.
The broader public gets this as the below responses indicate.
The breakdown in trust in the government is deep, and critically, they don't think the new PM will change the government's priorities in any substantial way, which means it will continue to lack any long-term plan for Australia's future. The indulgence is also damaging trust in the centre, driving voters away from the major political parties, and they just want to end the whole sorry show ASAP.
As for Labor, an overwhelming majority of the public wants to hear what its policies are, not just what is wrong with the Liberals, given they have chronicled this for themselves.
As I have written before, Shorten's relatively low ratings, a product of the Coalition's own highly personalised "kill Bill" strategy coupled with ongoing scepticism from many progressives, have not impacted on Labor's sustained poll supremacy.
That's because rather than running on the likeability of its captain, Labor has developed a raft of policies from ending the negative gearing and family trust concessions, to embracing 50% renewable energy to supporting an Indigenous voice to parliament that give a sense of the journey to come.
Scott Morrison's defence rings hollow after Coalition's deranged bloodletting | Katharine Murphy
In contrast, as the Coalition prepares to ditch its commitment to reducing emissions in pursuit of an easier internal life fuelled by fossil fuels and faux outrage at the energy companies whose privatisation they enthusiastically encourage, the public has a pretty simple message: don't.
It's the big issues about the future of the nation where the election will be fought. Progressives who felt let down by Turnbull, outraged by Abbott and Dutton and who want to find a way of feeling bad about Morrison also would be well-served to keep their eyes on the main game.
There are only two boats in this race. One is heading for the finish line with the wind in it sails. The other has been knocked off course, is still taking on water and is taking towards the rocks. In such a contest the trick is to keep your eyes on the horizon.
• Peter Lewis is the executive director of Essential and a Guardian Australia columnist
Essential poll