Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_the_russian_federation

Dataset card Data Studio Files
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Community
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the ruble appreciation since the beginning of the year alongside with inflation slowdown in russia’s trading partners limits the price growth of imports.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
157
as a result, growth in domestic demand will continue to outpace the supply expansion capacity, intensifying underlying inflationary pressures in the economy.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,023
269
inflation expectations of households and businesses’ price expectations remain elevated.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
336
moving on, according to the bank of russia’s forecast, annual inflation will stay close to 4%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,019
586
this forecast takes into account the decisions taken with regard to the key rate and to the suspension of foreign currency purchases in the domestic market under the fiscal rule.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
908
a deterioration in the global economic growth outlook can also have significant short-term pro-inflationary effects, in particular given volatility in foreign financial markets.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
14
anaemic economic growth is mostly caused to a significant degree by structural reasons.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
582
this is largely related to the growth in prices in global commodity markets and the continuing pass-through of the ruble’s earlier weakening to prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
293
economic growth resumed in early 2018, following the decline due to temporary headwinds in late 2017.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
34
in the months ahead, as new harvest comes in, prices for fruit and vegetables are set to show a seasonal downward trend.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
706
the domestic financial market has stabilised in the time since the previous board meeting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
326
households’ inflation expectations have continued to decline in april.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
886
according to the bank of russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.5–5.0% in 2025, 4.0% in 2026, and stay at the target further on.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
682
for inflation to become anchored close to the 4% target, sustainable decline in inflation expectations in required.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
931
structural factors continue to exert a restraining influence on economic growth, however, its slowing is becoming more and more cyclical.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
181
in accordance with the updated baseline forecast, gdp is projected to grow 2.0-3.0% in 2022.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,022
80
as inflation showed a substantial slowdown, inflation expectations of both households and businesses declined considerably.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
497
maintenance of moderately tight monetary conditions will constrain inflation risks, including the short-term ones, coming from the launch of the finance ministry-conducted purchase of foreign currency in the fx market.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
63
this may become an additional source of higher volatility in global financial markets.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
79
unemployment was close to its natural level.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
406
the floating exchange rate partially sets off the negative impact of external shocks.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
786
according to bank of russia estimates, the labour market adjusts to the new conditions mostly through wage decrease and part-time employment.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,015
311
inflation is projected to be close to 3% by late 2017; going forward, as the temporary factors run their course, it will approach 4%.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,017
986
economic slack does not have considerable restraining effect on consumer prices growth as it is mostly caused by structural factors.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,014
821
variations in the dynamics of economic activity persist, with differing trends observed across industries.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
33
economic activity continues to be constrained by weakening external demand for russian exports on the back of a global economic slowdown as well as by weak investment activity dynamics, including government investment expenditures.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
296
this reinforces persistent inflationary pressure in the economy.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
62
real wage growth has sped up, which is, however, associated with large payments of annual bonuses in 2024 q1.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
211
also growing are restrictions in the labour market, driven in part by the partial mobilisation.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
339
inflation will begin to gradually return to the target in the second half of the year, supported by further recovery of domestic demand.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
542
annual inflation registered an expected short-term increase against this backdrop standing at an estimated 4.2% as of 13 june 2017.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
56
external demand movements will be mostly dependent on fiscal support measures in individual advanced economies as well as the pace of vaccination world-wide.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
396
in turn, a persisting high risk premium in credit rates and higher borrower requirements of banks may restrain the recovery of credit activity.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,022
768
according to bank of russia estimates, most inflation indicators reflecting the most sustainable price movements are growing.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
628
to 7.50% per annum.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
764
on 26 october 2018, the bank of russia board of directors decided to keep the key rate at 7.50% per annum.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
545
high-frequency indicators of economic activity suggest that the economic recovery in early 2021 is ongoing.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
340
according to the bank of russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will come in at 4.5–6.5% in 2023 to return to 4% in 2024.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
742
weekly estimates show that inflation has significantly accelerated since early march.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
30
the decision taken is proactive in nature and is aimed at limiting inflation risks that remain elevated, especially over the short-term horizon.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,018
657
as a result, consumer price growth rate is likely to remain exceeding 7% till the end of 2014.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
241
the bank of russia will assess inflation risks and compliance of economic performance and inflation with the baseline scenario when it makes its key rate decision in the upcoming months.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
324
the bank of russia has slightly raised the oil price in its baseline scenario.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
725
persistent inflationary pressures have increased in recent months.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
449
as a result, only net exports will make a positive contribution to output growth.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,015
407
the key rate decision and the potential for its decrease in the future will contribute to further easing of monetary conditions, thus supporting domestic demand and creating prerequisites for inflation to approach 4%.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
53
in september, business and consumer sentiment slightly worsened due to a rise in overall uncertainty.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
200
in these circumstances, the bank of russia keeps unchanged its 2019 gdp growth forecast in the range of 0.8–1.3%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
97
supply-side factors in the oil market may amplify the volatility of global oil prices.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
150
over the medium term, the balance of inflation risks is still tilted to the upside.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
194
the bank of russia estimates that the ruble weakening will quicken inflation movement to 4% without the risks of overpassing this level, unless the external environment changes considerably.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,018
747
by estimates, the annual consumer price growth fell to 6.6% as of 12 september 2016 compared to 7.2% in july.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
310
annual inflation will slow down to 4% in the first half of 2020 when the effects of the ruble’s weakening and the vat rise peter out.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
7
positive real interest rates will be held at the level which will ensure demand for loans without increasing inflationary pressure and will uphold incentives for saving.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
805
interest rates in the deposit and credit market have risen slightly.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
390
annual inflation continues its decline in line with the bank of russia’s baseline forecast; however, this is largely due to temporary factors.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
245
the bank of russia forecasts that in the coming months, annual inflation will temporarily fall below 4% under the influence of last year’s high base effect.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
18
the situation in the domestic financial market remained stable in november and the first half of december and did not pose any additional inflation risks.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
341
nominal lending rates continue to decline influenced by earlier key rate cuts, as well as those expected by market participants.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
286
the effect of proinflationary factors may be strengthened by elevated inflation expectations and accompanying secondary effects.
hawkish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
461
investment activity continued to rise in the third quarter.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
656
according to the baseline scenario, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will come in at 4.5–6.5% in 2023, return to 4% in 2024 and will be close to 4% further on.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,023
363
inflation remains close to the target.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
940
unemployment is at its record lows, whereas the number of openings was the highest on record.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
649
the expansion of private demand along with a continuously high level of public demand is facilitating strong growth in domestic demand.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
15
growing yields of medium- and long-term ofzs largely reflect the increase of interest rates in global financial markets.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
342
in the forthcoming months, food price growth will largely depend on crop quality and preservation.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
798
that said, significant risks are posed by elevated and unanchored inflation expectations, as well as by external factors.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
873
at the same time, inflation expectations of households have declined significantly in march.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
123
real sector lending continues to grow on the back of eased monetary conditions.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
906
in particular, the risk of a slowdown in global economic growth still looms caused, among other things, by the further tightening of international trade restrictions.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
722
volatility in global commodity and financial markets may produce a negative impact on exchange rate and inflation expectations.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
110
an additional disinflationary factor was the expansion of supply in a number of goods markets as external and domestic export restrictions remained in place.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
31
on 16 september 2022, the bank of russia board of directors decided to cut the key rate by 50 basis points to 7.50% per annum.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
664
in making its decision on the key rate, moving forward, the bank of russia will assess the probability of the baseline scenario implementation (where oil prices drop to $40 per barrel) and the scenario with rising oil prices, alongside with assessing inflation and the economy dynamics relative to the forecast.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
720
the emerging signs of recovery in investment activity are persistently weak.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
521
in the majority of economic sectors, which specialise in meeting domestic demand, output has either reached or exceeded pre-crisis levels.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
175
subsequent economic growth may be held back by, among other things, low vaccination rates and the spread of new coronavirus strains, as well as the ensuing tightening of restrictions.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,021
392
annual inflation slowdown is continuing.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
817
tightened in response to both the july increase in the key rate and a significant upward revision of its forecast path in the baseline scenario.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
953
given the current recovery dynamics and the economy’s growing resilience to the fluctuations in the external economic climate, the bank of russia expects that the gdp will grow in 2017-2019 even if the conservative oil price scenario materialises.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
328
should inflation pressures in the global economy strengthen further, central banks in advanced economies may attempt an earlier normalisation of their monetary policies.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
126
on 28 october 2022, the bank of russia board of directors decided to keep the key rate at 7.50% per annum.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
4
inflation expectations show mixed dynamics but generally remain elevated.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
889
however, this is related to the high base effect of april 2020.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
989
therefore, monetary conditions generate low inflationary pressure without restricting economic growth.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
726
according to the estimates as of 24 april, annual inflation stands at 4.2-4.3%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
414
concurrently, labour market tightness continues to increase.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
965
due to the budget rule, the decrease in the 2019 average annual oil price from 63 to 55 us dollars per barrel in the baseline scenario will have little influence on macroeconomic fundamentals.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,018
661
at the end of 2018, inflation is expected to be close to 4%, which corresponds to the bank of russia’s target.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
9
in line with the pursued monetary policy, the bank of russia has lowered its end-of-year annual inflation forecast for 2019 from 4.7-5.2% to 4.2-4.7%.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,019
197
meanwhile, price growth rate for certain food items flattened out due to the increase of supply by the russian companies and new import contracts.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
435
according to the estimate as of 21 october, annual inflation equalled 8.4% and is expected to be in the range of 8.0–8.5% by the end of 2024.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,024
553
the labour market tries to adjust to new economic conditions, and the unemployment remains stable and low.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
887
march saw a slowdown in price growth across all core groups of goods and services.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
160
the board of directors notes that inflation is close to 4% while the economy keeps growing.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
637
in march - april 2014, household rouble deposit rates began to grow.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
950
consumer demand remains the main driver of economic growth.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,014
799
2 starting from 01.07.2016 auctions were discontinued.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,016
88
there is a balance between proinflationary and disinflationary risks over a short-term horizon.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
487