Datasets:
gtfintechlab
/
central_bank_of_the_russian_federation

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
sentences
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999
these stem from the current developments in the oil market, persistently high inflation expectations and some uncertainties surrounding budget configuration.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
265
economic recovery is also supported by external demand which continues to grow despite the still complex epidemic conditions in the world.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
374
annual gdp growth is expected to be close to zero in 2015-2016.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,014
769
households’ and businesses’ funds in current accounts and bank deposits have increased, with fiscal spending still a meaningful contributor to this growth.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
825
under the baseline scenario, annual inflation will edge down to 4.0–4.5% by the end of 2022 and will remain close to 4% further on.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
715
sluggish investor and consumer activity will result in low demand for imports.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
834
this in large measure reflects a strong rebound in domestic demand.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
417
the labour market creates no additional inflationary pressure.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
730
this is largely related to the increase in prices for certain everyday goods and exchange rate volatility.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
791
implementation of government anti-recessionary measures will facilitate investments.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
881
the bank of russia leaves mostly unchanged its estimates of risks associated with oil price volatility, wage movements and possible changes in consumer behaviour.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,018
752
annual inflation remains low.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
667
the overall balance of inflation risks has remained essentially the same since the previous board meeting.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
880
the expansion of domestic demand is reflected, among other things, in increased demand for imports, which has substantially contributed to the weakening of the ruble since the beginning of 2023.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
187
the economic activity is rebounding.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
535
overall growth in corporate lending is below the peak levels of autumn 2023, though fiscal stimuli back up high corporate sector demand for loans.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
195
however, given the contracting number of employees and the labour force, it does not create any additional inflationary pressure.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,019
356
monetary conditions evolve, among other things, under the influence of earlier decisions to cut the key rate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,018
27
inflation has demonstrated a noticeable decline in line with the bank of russia’s baseline forecast.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
555
since the previous key rate review meeting of the bank of russia board of directors, yields on short-term ofzs have slightly declined.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
995
banks continue to adhere to a conservative policy by mitigating price and non-price lending conditions primarily for reliable borrowers.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
99
the bank of russia predicts that, consistent with this decision, annual inflation will total less than 6% in march 2017, to reach the 4% target in late 2017.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,016
882
according to bank of russia estimates, at the end of 2017, the economy’s growth rate will be close to the potential at 1.7-2.2%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
504
the slowing growth in household deposits was attributable in part to the deposit rate reduction.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
810
this is partially attributed to temporary factors — the ruble exchange rate and last year’s heavy crop.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
452
the contribution of persistent factors to inflation increased due to faster growth of demand compared to output expansion capacity.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
602
the dynamics of domestic demand contribute to a rise in demand for imports.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
631
consumer lending dynamics does not pose any risks for inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
410
in addition, accelerating growth in lending and a significant decline in the savings rate could set the stage for a more rapid expansion of consumer demand that would outstrip the capacity to expand production.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
321
the bank of russia leaves unchanged its estimates of risks associated with consumer and oil price volatility, wage movements and possible changes in consumer behaviour.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
28
rapid growth in lending, one-off budget payments, rising real wages and households’ low propensity to save, driven by high inflation expectations, support expansion in consumer activity, especially in non-food markets.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
951
have continued to ease.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
630
lending and deposit rates are adjusted downwards under the influence of previous bank of russia decisions to reduce the key rate.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
898
that said, the dynamics of ofz yields limits the potential for further growth of deposit and credit rates and creates conditions for their decline in the future.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
456
according to the forecast of the bank of russia, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.0–4.5% in 2024 and stay close to 4% further on.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,023
447
the effects of prior key rate rises on lending are expected to strengthen in the next few months.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
499
annual inflation did not change significantly since the beginning of march and, as of april 22, amounted to 7.8%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
436
the decline in economic activity is caused by developments in both demand and supply.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
772
if these factors continue to exert their influence over the coming quarters, inflation might return to the bank of russia’s target slower than expected.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
644
estimates as of 23 october 2017 indicate that annual inflation is 2.7%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
213
under these conditions, the continuing growth of the most liquid assets in the structure of household savings may spur a rise in consumer demand in the future.
dovish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
220
significant short-term proinflationary effects may also be caused by a deterioration in the global economic outlook and a further rise in volatility in global financial markets.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
11
a good harvest still facilitates a reduction in food inflation.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
806
this is evidenced by economic activity data for 2023 h2, including recent monthly data for q4.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,023
249
the seasonally adjusted measure of core inflation was up to 7.7% in annualised terms in february (from 6.8% in january).
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
482
the bank of russia’s baseline scenario rests on the decisions already made regarding the expenditure path of the federal budget and the fiscal system as a whole.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
389
have seen no considerable changes since the previous meeting of the bank of russia board of directors.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
746
the increase in consumer prices growth caused by the aforementioned factor is unlikely to be protracted.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,014
121
further changes in food prices will largely depend on the volume and quality of this year’s crops and post-harvest quality preservation both in russia and abroad.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
952
first, increased structural labour shortage may cause labour productivity growth to considerably lag behind wage growth.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,017
231
in its baseline scenario, the bank of russia proceeds from the fiscal policy normalisation path stipulated by the guidelines for fiscal, tax and customs and tariff policy for 2021 and the 2022–2023 planning period, which implies a return to the fiscal rule parameters in 2022.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
129
concurrently, higher incomes allow households to simultaneously increase savings and consumption.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,024
36
the risks remain that inflation may exceed the target in late 2017.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,016
76
on 18 march 2016, the board of directors of the bank of russia decided to keep its key rate at 11.00% p.a.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
41
at the same time, credit activity has remained high, especially in the corporate sector.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
479
there persists uncertainty over future external conditions and certain food price dynamics.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,019
387
at the same time, corporate lending is continuing to grow at rates close to recent years’ highs.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,021
96
the main reason for inflation acceleration was the effect of the observed ruble depreciation on prices of a wide range of goods and services.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,014
463
against this background the adopted decision will set conditions for a decline in annual consumer price growth rates to 6.0-6.5% by the end of 2014 and to the target level of 4.0% in the medium term.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
360
based on current trends in the russian and global economy, gdp is projected to grow 4.5% in 2021.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
609
when making its key rate decisions, the bank of russia will assess the impact of cancelling these anti-crisis measures on monetary conditions.
neutral
forward looking
uncertain
2,021
618
according to an estimate as of 18 october, it went up to 7.8%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,021
871
inflation movements higher inflationary pressures are seen across an increasingly broader range of goods and services.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
971
the deterioration in the global commodity markets will require a further adjustment of the russian economy.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,016
82
the bank of russia’s assessment of the medium-term economic development remains the same.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
3
the key rate decisions will take into account actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target and economic developments over the forecast horizon, as well as risks posed by domestic and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
552
a more rapid adaptation of the economy, accompanied by an active recovery of imports among other things, may also have a disinflationary effect.
dovish
not forward looking
uncertain
2,023
355
while making its decision hereinafter, the bank of russia will assess inflation risks, the inflation dynamics and economic developments against the forecast.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
19
tighter monetary conditions haven’t offset the influence of the aforementioned factors on inflation expectations yet though monetary aggregates dynamics sets the ground for inflation decline in the medium run.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,014
551
inflation is expected to be within the range of 7.4–7.9% as of the end of 2021.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
557
inflation has accelerated and is developing significantly above the bank of russia’s april forecast.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
468
the anchoring of inflation close to 4% will require both further decrease in inflation expectations and making them less susceptible to price changes.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,017
474
on 10 june 2016, the bank of russia board of directors decided to reduce the key rate from 11.00 to 10.50 the board of directors notes the positive trends of more stable inflation, decreased inflation expectations and inflation risks against the backdrop of imminent growth recovery in the economy.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
343
the main proinflationary risks are associated with changes in terms of trade (including as a result of the geopolitical tensions), persistently high inflation expectations and upward deviation of the russian economy from a balanced growth path, as well as with the fiscal policy normalisation path.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
228
moving forward, the bank of russia’s key rate decisions will be based on its assessment on the balance of risks for inflation significantly and persistently deviating in either direction from the target, as well as the dynamics of economic activity against the forecast.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,017
332
have tightened since the previous meeting of the bank of russia board of directors.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
2
this decline will be mainly driven by supply-side factors, thereby producing a limited disinflationary effect.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,022
166
the annual pace of consumer price growth in the end of 2016 is estimated to be about 6%, on the way to reach the target of 4% in 2017.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
641
as predicted by the bank of russia’s forecast, annual retail sales growth declined in january—february as a result of the vat increase and a slowdown in wage growth.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,019
484
this was supported by changes in the balance of supply and demand in certain food markets and the past year’s low base effect.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,018
651
moderately tight monetary conditions need to be maintained in order to encourage households to save and set the trend towards sustainable inflation reduction under the impact of the demand-side constraints.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,016
782
as a result, net exports will be the only component to make a positive contribution to annual output growth.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,015
854
this is also the reason behind a persistently elevated demand for imports.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,023
902
the bank of russia forecasts the growth rate of the russian economy in 2021 in the range of 3.0–4.0%.
neutral
forward looking
certain
2,021
1
price expectations of businesses have increased most significantly in recent months.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,023
923
in its forecast, the bank of russia also factors in decisions made by the government of the russian federation to invest the liquid part of the national wealth fund.
irrelevant
forward looking
certain
2,022
958
due to the remaining elevated domestic demand, which outstrips the capabilities to expand supply, inflation will return to the target somewhat more slowly than the bank of russia forecast in february.
hawkish
forward looking
certain
2,024
809
the annual inflation has stabilised at 7.3% and the annualised monthly inflation, seasonally adjusted, is about 5%.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,016
180
this is expected to additionally constrain lending growth in 2024.
dovish
forward looking
certain
2,024
874
a further significant reduction in inflation expectations also contributes to the inflation slowdown.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,022
346
on 11 september 2015, the bank of russia board of directors decided to maintain the key rate at 11.0 percent per annum, due to the higher inflation risks amid persistent risks of considerable economy cooling.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,015
856
the disinflationary impact of domestic demand is however going down, which translates into slower deceleration of non-food product prices.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,016
765
these include agriculture, the food industry, chemicals and mining.
irrelevant
not forward looking
certain
2,016
975
a slowdown in the global economy and a further escalation of external trade and financial restrictions may weaken foreign demand for russian exports and have a pro-inflation effect via exchange rate dynamics.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
643
food inflation remains relatively low, although since the supply of last year harvest has become exhausted annual growth in prices for fruit and vegetables is currently rising.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
800
these months saw food inflation unusually low for this period, supported by the high level of supply including bumper harvests of 2015-2016.
dovish
not forward looking
certain
2,017
188
in august, inflation totalled 3.3% following a short-lived rise to 4.4% in june.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,017
671
annual inflation grew from 8.6% in june to 9.0% as of 22 july.
hawkish
not forward looking
certain
2,024
471
the drastic change in external conditions for the russian economy that occurred at the end of february has created threats to financial stability.
neutral
not forward looking
certain
2,022
533
a growing risk premium in bond yields and lending rates may further tighten monetary conditions, which will restrain lending in the economy.
hawkish
forward looking
uncertain
2,023
113