satpalsr/forsample · Datasets at Hugging Face

text stringlengths 12 11.8k	prediction float64 0 1	source stringclasses 5 values
Will Algeria bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?	0.45	Manifold
Will Algeria bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?	0.53	Manifold
Will Algeria bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?	0.48	Manifold
Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?	0.66	Manifold
Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?	0.52	Manifold
Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?	0.4	Manifold
Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?	0.54	Manifold
Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?	0.53	Manifold
Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?	0.45	Manifold
Will Francesca Gino be reinstated as a Professor at Harvard by Aug 1st 2024?	0.12	Manifold
Will a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2030?	0.34	Manifold
In 2030, will the broad consensus among experts be that DID forms as a result of childhood trauma?	0.66	Manifold
Will ChatGPT be mentioned in the 2024 US presidential debates?	0.59	Manifold
Will Sundar Pichai remain Alphabet CEO by 2025 end?	0.48	Manifold
Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024?	0.63	Manifold
Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?	0.53	Manifold
Will Roblox announce an ML infra offering by end of Q2 2024?	0.55	Manifold
Will pickleball become an Olympic sport by 2030	0.21	Manifold
Will renewable energy sources account for more than 50% of global electricity production by 2030?	0.73	Manifold
Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2028?	0.2	Manifold
Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2027?	0.17	Manifold
By the end of 2045, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children?	0.28	Manifold
Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2026?	0.12	Manifold
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2050?	0.51	Manifold
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2040?	0.48	Manifold
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2030?	0.17	Manifold
Will the web environment integrity project be officially discontinued/abandoned by the end of 2024?	0.27	Manifold
Will the Manifold interface involve maps by the July 1, 2024?	0.34	Manifold
In how many states will Joe Biden have been indicted by Nov 5, 2024	0.07	Manifold
In how many states will Donald Trump have been indicted by Nov 5, 2024	0.43	Manifold
In how many states will Joe Biden be indicted by Nov 5, 2024?	0.5	Manifold
Will the metaverse become a mainstream social platform by 2030?	0.6	Manifold
Will Manifold Reach 9800 Monthly Active Users in 2023?	0.83	Manifold
Will Manifold Reach 9600 Monthly Active Users in 2023?	0.84	Manifold
Will Manifold Reach 9400 Monthly Active Users in 2023?	0.86	Manifold
Will Manifold Reach 9200 Monthly Active Users in 2023?	0.94	Manifold
Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?	0.76	Manifold
Will Dune 2 be released before 2024?	0.84	Manifold
Will LK-99's manufacturing process inspire a new room temperature superconducting material by 2025?	0.52	Manifold
Will BCI enable human-monke communication by 2034?	0.35	Manifold
Will Rocketlab perform a static fire test of their new Neutron rocket by the end of 2024?	0.28	Manifold
Will planet 9 be discovered before 2030?	0.23	Manifold
full dive VR BCI consumer devices by 2030	0.37	Manifold
Will primates take over the Earth, á la Planet of the Apes, by 2080?	0.34	Manifold
Will the JetBlue, Spirit Airlines merger close by July 1, 2024?	0.59	Manifold
Will the noxacusis subreddit reach 400 members before 2025?	0.57	Manifold
Will Justin Trudeau remarry before October 20, 2025?	0.57	Manifold
If the Room-Temperature Superconductor is not real, will calculating a 2048-bit RSA Key Cost <$1000 in 2030?	0.5	Manifold
If the Room-Temperature Superconductor is real, will calculating a 2048-bit RSA Key Cost <$1000 in 2030?	0.5	Manifold
Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 8000 unique traders?	0.36	Manifold
Will Bronny James be drafted in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft?	0.7	Manifold
Will Hungrybox lose a tournament set to an opponent for the first time before 2024?	0.5	Manifold
Will any other Republican presidential candidate overtake Trump in the 538 primary polling average before 2024?	0.28	Manifold
Will New Zealand's Men's national football team (the All Whites) qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	0.74	Manifold
Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027?	0.68	Manifold
Will someone get canceled for a comment made on Manifold by the end of 2024?	0.4	Manifold
Midjourney can create correct text in images by June 1 2024	0.57	Manifold
Will Manifold introduce some sort of calibration leaderboard/ranking system before 2024?	0.17	Manifold
Will Manifold include info about subsidy value, amount bet, or APY range for each question in the Home feed by 2024?	0.47	Manifold
Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 6000 unique traders?	0.78	Manifold
Will Lex Fridman interview Donald Trump before the general elections in November 2024?	0.23	Manifold
Will the West Coast of the island of Hawai'i experience "Coral Bleaching Warning Level 2" before 2025?	0.59	Manifold
Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard by 01/01/2030?	0.51	Manifold
Will any US state lower the voting age below 18 by 2030?	0.29	Manifold
Will a socialist be elected president by 2040?	0.36	Manifold
Will the CDC create a Biosafety Level 5 Category before 2040?	0.59	Manifold
Will a pathogenic bacteria be designated a Biosafety Level 4 Organism by the CDC before 2040?	0.5	Manifold
Will OpenAI remain independent by EOY 2024?	0.74	Manifold
Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit)	0.76	Manifold
Will there be parliamentary elections in 2024 in Poland?	0.35	Manifold
Will 2100 wipe out humanity by AI?	0.22	Manifold
Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temp superconductors before 2024?	0.49	Manifold
Will Forest Fires Continue To Spread In Ontario by 2024?	0.2	Manifold
Will Tether trade for less than 0.8 USD before August 2024 on Kraken?	0.37	Manifold
Will any city >50k have energy "too cheap to meter" by 2035?	0.14	Manifold
Will ChatGPT remain the most popular service in its niche by 2024?	0.85	Manifold
Will the Reimann Hypotheses be Resolved by the year 2035	0.28	Manifold
Will AH be employed by TL on the 31st December 2024?	0.74	Manifold
Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about AI extinction risks before 2025?	0.37	Manifold
Will any Manifold market reach 10,000 traders by the end of 2024?	0.64	Manifold
Will Germany lose its AAA rating before end of 2024?	0.14	Manifold
Will Luis Wenus create a startup that reaches $10 million in market cap by 2024?	0.45	Manifold
Will any Boeing 747-400 still be in regular passenger service by 2030?	0.43	Manifold
Will George Russell finish in the top 5 drivers in the 2024 season?	0.63	Manifold
Will the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Orthodox Church of Ukraine exist separately until 2030?	0.5	Manifold
Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about UFOs before 2024?	0.53	Manifold
Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025?	0.4	Manifold
Will Python add `{:}`, `{,}` and maybe `(,)` in or before 3.15 (October 2026)?	0.28	Manifold
Will Spotify create a record label and release AI-generated songs by 2026?	0.31	Manifold
How many humans will live in 2100?	0.67	Manifold
Will the UK be in recession by Q2 2024?	0.35	Manifold
Will Anthropic be acquired by another company before the end of 2025?	0.21	Manifold
Will Rust remain the most loved/admired programming language according to the 2024 StackOverflow Developer Survey?	0.73	Manifold
Will Barbie gross $1.2 billion worldwide by the end of 2024?	0.66	Manifold
Will Cyberpunk 2077: Phantom Liberty reach an 85% on Metacritic by launch day?	0.65	Manifold
Before 2030, will Trump spend 365 consecutive days outside the US?	0.26	Manifold
London Breed is re-elected Mayor of San Francisco in 2024	0.29	Manifold
Will Humane release their AI pin by H1 2024	0.42	Manifold
Will RTAP materials similar to lk99 be reported by 2025 ?	0.49	Manifold
Will there be an arcology (self-sufficient habitat) constructed with capacity for 10,000+ residents by 2040?	0.29	Manifold

Will Algeria bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?

0.45

Manifold

Will Algeria bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?

0.53

Manifold

Will Algeria bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

0.48

Manifold

Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?

0.66

Manifold

Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

0.52

Manifold

Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?

0.4

Manifold

Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?

0.54

Manifold

Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

0.53

Manifold

Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?

0.45

Manifold

Will Francesca Gino be reinstated as a Professor at Harvard by Aug 1st 2024?

0.12

Manifold

Will a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2030?

0.34

Manifold

In 2030, will the broad consensus among experts be that DID forms as a result of childhood trauma?

0.66

Manifold

Will ChatGPT be mentioned in the 2024 US presidential debates?

0.59

Manifold

Will Sundar Pichai remain Alphabet CEO by 2025 end?

0.48

Manifold

Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024?

0.63

Manifold

Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?

0.53

Manifold

Will Roblox announce an ML infra offering by end of Q2 2024?

0.55

Manifold

Will pickleball become an Olympic sport by 2030

0.21

Manifold

Will renewable energy sources account for more than 50% of global electricity production by 2030?

0.73

Manifold

Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2028?

0.2

Manifold

Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2027?

0.17

Manifold

By the end of 2045, will it be possible for a person who was born male to get pregnant and have children?

0.28

Manifold

Will LK-99 MRIs be sold commercially by 2026?

0.12

Manifold

Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2050?

0.51

Manifold

Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2040?

0.48

Manifold

Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2030?

0.17

Manifold

Will the web environment integrity project be officially discontinued/abandoned by the end of 2024?

0.27

Manifold

Will the Manifold interface involve maps by the July 1, 2024?

0.34

Manifold

In how many states will Joe Biden have been indicted by Nov 5, 2024

0.07

Manifold

In how many states will Donald Trump have been indicted by Nov 5, 2024

0.43

Manifold

In how many states will Joe Biden be indicted by Nov 5, 2024?

0.5

Manifold

Will the metaverse become a mainstream social platform by 2030?

0.6

Manifold

Will Manifold Reach 9800 Monthly Active Users in 2023?

0.83

Manifold

Will Manifold Reach 9600 Monthly Active Users in 2023?

0.84

Manifold

Will Manifold Reach 9400 Monthly Active Users in 2023?

0.86

Manifold

Will Manifold Reach 9200 Monthly Active Users in 2023?

0.94

Manifold

Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?

0.76

Manifold

Will Dune 2 be released before 2024?

0.84

Manifold

Will LK-99's manufacturing process inspire a new room temperature superconducting material by 2025?

0.52

Manifold

Will BCI enable human-monke communication by 2034?

0.35

Manifold

Will Rocketlab perform a static fire test of their new Neutron rocket by the end of 2024?

0.28

Manifold

Will planet 9 be discovered before 2030?

0.23

Manifold

full dive VR BCI consumer devices by 2030

0.37

Manifold

Will primates take over the Earth, á la Planet of the Apes, by 2080?

0.34

Manifold

Will the JetBlue, Spirit Airlines merger close by July 1, 2024?

0.59

Manifold

Will the noxacusis subreddit reach 400 members before 2025?

0.57

Manifold

Will Justin Trudeau remarry before October 20, 2025?

0.57

Manifold

If the Room-Temperature Superconductor is not real, will calculating a 2048-bit RSA Key Cost <$1000 in 2030?

0.5

Manifold

If the Room-Temperature Superconductor is real, will calculating a 2048-bit RSA Key Cost <$1000 in 2030?

0.5

Manifold

Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 8000 unique traders?

0.36

Manifold

Will Bronny James be drafted in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft?

0.7

Manifold

Will Hungrybox lose a tournament set to an opponent for the first time before 2024?

0.5

Manifold

Will any other Republican presidential candidate overtake Trump in the 538 primary polling average before 2024?

0.28

Manifold

Will New Zealand's Men's national football team (the All Whites) qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0.74

Manifold

Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027?

0.68

Manifold

Will someone get canceled for a comment made on Manifold by the end of 2024?

0.4

Manifold

Midjourney can create correct text in images by June 1 2024

0.57

Manifold

Will Manifold introduce some sort of calibration leaderboard/ranking system before 2024?

0.17

Manifold

Will Manifold include info about subsidy value, amount bet, or APY range for each question in the Home feed by 2024?

0.47

Manifold

Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 6000 unique traders?

0.78

Manifold

Will Lex Fridman interview Donald Trump before the general elections in November 2024?

0.23

Manifold

Will the West Coast of the island of Hawai'i experience "Coral Bleaching Warning Level 2" before 2025?

0.59

Manifold

Will the SI second be redefined to an optical frequency standard by 01/01/2030?

0.51

Manifold

Will any US state lower the voting age below 18 by 2030?

0.29

Manifold

Will a socialist be elected president by 2040?

0.36

Manifold

Will the CDC create a Biosafety Level 5 Category before 2040?

0.59

Manifold

Will a pathogenic bacteria be designated a Biosafety Level 4 Organism by the CDC before 2040?

0.5

Manifold

Will OpenAI remain independent by EOY 2024?

0.74

Manifold

Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit)

0.76

Manifold

Will there be parliamentary elections in 2024 in Poland?

0.35

Manifold

Will 2100 wipe out humanity by AI?

0.22

Manifold

Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temp superconductors before 2024?

0.49

Manifold

Will Forest Fires Continue To Spread In Ontario by 2024?

0.2

Manifold

Will Tether trade for less than 0.8 USD before August 2024 on Kraken?

0.37

Manifold

Will any city >50k have energy "too cheap to meter" by 2035?

0.14

Manifold

Will ChatGPT remain the most popular service in its niche by 2024?

0.85

Manifold

Will the Reimann Hypotheses be Resolved by the year 2035

0.28

Manifold

Will AH be employed by TL on the 31st December 2024?

0.74

Manifold

Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about AI extinction risks before 2025?

0.37

Manifold

Will any Manifold market reach 10,000 traders by the end of 2024?

0.64

Manifold

Will Germany lose its AAA rating before end of 2024?

0.14

Manifold

Will Luis Wenus create a startup that reaches $10 million in market cap by 2024?

0.45

Manifold

Will any Boeing 747-400 still be in regular passenger service by 2030?

0.43

Manifold

Will George Russell finish in the top 5 drivers in the 2024 season?

0.63

Manifold

Will the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Orthodox Church of Ukraine exist separately until 2030?

0.5

Manifold

Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about UFOs before 2024?

0.53

Manifold

Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025?

0.4

Manifold

Will Python add `{:}`, `{,}` and maybe `(,)` in or before 3.15 (October 2026)?

0.28

Manifold

Will Spotify create a record label and release AI-generated songs by 2026?

0.31

Manifold

How many humans will live in 2100?

0.67

Manifold

Will the UK be in recession by Q2 2024?

0.35

Manifold

Will Anthropic be acquired by another company before the end of 2025?

0.21

Manifold

Will Rust remain the most loved/admired programming language according to the 2024 StackOverflow Developer Survey?

0.73

Manifold

Will Barbie gross $1.2 billion worldwide by the end of 2024?

0.66

Manifold

Will Cyberpunk 2077: Phantom Liberty reach an 85% on Metacritic by launch day?

0.65

Manifold

Before 2030, will Trump spend 365 consecutive days outside the US?

0.26

Manifold

London Breed is re-elected Mayor of San Francisco in 2024

0.29

Manifold

Will Humane release their AI pin by H1 2024

0.42

Manifold

Will RTAP materials similar to lk99 be reported by 2025 ?

0.49

Manifold

Will there be an arcology (self-sufficient habitat) constructed with capacity for 10,000+ residents by 2040?

0.29

Manifold