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|---|---|---|
Will Mr Modi still be the Prime Minister of India in 2025?
| 0.9
|
Manifold
|
Will it be possible to convert mana into real money either on Manifold or any other platform by 2025?
| 0.37
|
Manifold
|
If the 2024 Enhanced Games happen, will any athletes end up in the hospital?
| 0.68
|
Manifold
|
Will India's GDP cross $7 trillion by 2030?
| 0.66
|
Manifold
|
Will AI wipe out monkeys by 2030?
| 0.15
|
Manifold
|
Will OpenAI provide access to GPT-4 weights to academic researchers not affiliated with OpenAI, by 2025?
| 0.35
|
Manifold
|
Will JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Part 7: Steel Ball Run be animated before 2025?
| 0.45
|
Manifold
|
Will Sam Altman have a manifold markets account before 2024?
| 0.13
|
Manifold
|
Will Sam Altman continue to be the CEO of OpenAI until the end of 2024?
| 0.87
|
Manifold
|
Will Morena win Mexico's 2024 election by a margin of more than 10%?
| 0.69
|
Manifold
|
Will manifold get into legal trouble because they are not GPDR compliant before August 2024?
| 0.11
|
Manifold
|
Will Dario Amodei be the CEO of Anthropic on September 6, 2024?
| 0.69
|
Manifold
|
Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?
| 0.21
|
Manifold
|
Will Daniel Ricciardo drive for Red Bull Racing in 2025?
| 0.33
|
Manifold
|
Before 2030 infectious agent created by humans at a non-governmental entity kills 5% of human population.
| 0.08
|
Manifold
|
Will the world human population be <6 Billion on December 26, 2025?
| 0.12
|
Manifold
|
Will inflection AI have a model that is 10X the size of original GPT-4 at the end of Q1, 2025?
| 0.41
|
Manifold
|
Will we mine an asteroid by 2034?
| 0.44
|
Manifold
|
Will humanoid robots win against the human soccer World Cup champions before 2037?
| 0.42
|
Manifold
|
Will California repeal Prop. 13 by 2030? (2/3's majority requirement)
| 0.55
|
Manifold
|
Will California repeal Prop. 13 by 2030? (1% limit)
| 0.66
|
Manifold
|
Will California repeal Prop. 13 by 2030? (2% adjustment cap)
| 0.55
|
Manifold
|
Will New Zealand implement conditional GST by 2024?
| 0.36
|
Manifold
|
Glyphosate (Roundup) will be proven to reduce testosterone by interfering with the gut biome by 2030.
| 0.38
|
Manifold
|
Will Tesla's market share of EVs sold in the US be above 50% in 2025?
| 0.32
|
Manifold
|
Will there be another 3x3 single (Rubik's Cube) below 3.47 seconds before 2024?
| 0.62
|
Manifold
|
Will Nauru's GDP per capita (PPP) still be higher than Sudan's in 2028, according to the most recent estimate?
| 0.66
|
Manifold
|
Will Republicans win the popular vote in the 2024 US House Elections?
| 0.34
|
Manifold
|
Will Meta release an open source language model that outperforms GPT-4 by the end of 2024
| 0.33
|
Manifold
|
Will the President of USA publicly deny Grusch's UFO allegations before 2024?
| 0.26
|
Manifold
|
Will the Nancy Pelosi ETF outperform the inverse Jim Cramer ETF in 2024?
| 0.8
|
Manifold
|
Will a Republican be elected to the United States Senate in 2024 in any state that Joe Biden won in 2020?
| 0.57
|
Manifold
|
Will Joe Manchin seek re-election to the United States Senate in 2024?
| 0.37
|
Manifold
|
Will LEMMiNO upload a public non-Q&A video to his main channel before July 25th 2024?
| 0.5
|
Manifold
|
Will Minecraft be beaten on a random seed in less than 7:45 before 2024?
| 0.6
|
Manifold
|
Will artificial general intelligence be achieved they the end of 2025 ?
| 0.65
|
Manifold
|
Will Daniel Schmachtenberger go on Lex Fridman podcast by the end of 2024?
| 0.5
|
Manifold
|
Will we see the release of most John F Kennedy assassination documents by EOY 2030?
| 0.7
|
Manifold
|
Will at least 1% of all A/C units worldwide be replaced with energyless cooling alternatives by 2040?
| 0.37
|
Manifold
|
Will bitcoin exceed ATH and reach 70,000$ before July 2025?
| 0.42
|
Manifold
|
Will there be an uplifted primate by 2060?
| 0.47
|
Manifold
|
Will Manifold add clear and effective rules on market criteria in title vs description vs comments before 2024?
| 0.38
|
Manifold
|
Will we return to monke by 2100?
| 0.13
|
Manifold
|
Will Destiny switch the primary microphone he uses while streaming at his desk before 2025?
| 0.5
|
Manifold
|
Will handheld or desktop monitors become obsolete by the end of 2025?
| 0.17
|
Manifold
|
Will Tsar Bomba be upstaged by 2100?
| 0.28
|
Manifold
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in one day in 2024?
| 0.11
|
Manifold
|
Car with no physical side mirrors widely available in the EU before 2027
| 0.31
|
Manifold
|
Will Amazon release a version of Alexa with GPT4-level intelligence by the end of 2025?
| 0.68
|
Manifold
|
Will BTC reach $1M before 2026?
| 0.1
|
Manifold
|
Teslas allow showing YouTube or other movies/streaming on the main screen while driving before 2025
| 0.19
|
Manifold
|
Will the Supreme Court strike down the FTC’s attempt to ban noncompete agreements before the end of 2026?
| 0.43
|
Manifold
|
Car with no physical side mirrors widely available in the US before 2027
| 0.67
|
Manifold
|
What will be the annual mean CO2 level in 2030?
| 0.38
|
Manifold
|
Will someone die aboard a SpaceX rocket before the end of 2030?
| 0.21
|
Manifold
|
How many pageviews will Timelessmyths.com get in 2024?
| 0.98
|
Manifold
|
Will Twitter/X buy Manifold before December 31st 2025?
| 0.06
|
Manifold
|
Will the Vinfast EV plant in North Carolina, USA produce vehicles by the end of 2026?
| 0.66
|
Manifold
|
What will be the mean annual CO2 level in 2025?
| 0.46
|
Manifold
|
What will be the mean annual CO2 level in 2024?
| 0.47
|
Manifold
|
Will Cambridge Water 'run out of water' before 2030, conditional on major housebuilding in the area (>50,000 houses)?
| 0.09
|
Manifold
|
Will embryo selection be mentioned during a U.S. presidential debate before 2030?
| 0.36
|
Manifold
|
Will the Manifest conference reoccur in 2025?
| 0.58
|
Manifold
|
Will the Manifest conference reoccur in 2024?
| 0.64
|
Manifold
|
Will OpenAI offer a higher-tier version of ChatGPT, priced above US$49, by 2025?
| 0.71
|
Manifold
|
When will the Antarctic sea ice reach nearly zero before 2100?
| 0.69
|
Manifold
|
When will the Antarctic sea ice reach a new minimum in 2024?
| 0.59
|
Manifold
|
Will the last Bitcoin be mined before 2140?
| 0.62
|
Manifold
|
Will Wipeout AI humanity by 2030?
| 0.22
|
Manifold
|
Will autonomous lethal weapons platforms or "robot soldiers" be deployed in any conflict by end 2030?
| 0.57
|
Manifold
|
Will autonomous lethal weapons platforms or "robot soldiers" be deployed in any conflict by end 2024?
| 0.31
|
Manifold
|
Will bitcoin price hit USD120,000 in 2024?
| 0.13
|
Manifold
|
Will a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2025?
| 0.28
|
Manifold
|
Will jeff passan de transition before 2025
| 0.5
|
Manifold
|
Will OpenAI release the source code and model weights of any of its legacy GPT-3 models before 2025?
| 0.26
|
Manifold
|
Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by 2030?
| 0.48
|
Manifold
|
Will the Syrian civil war end before 2025?
| 0.52
|
Manifold
|
Will an open model with comparable results to GPT-4 on MMLU be released by the end of July 2024?
| 0.52
|
Manifold
|
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?
| 0.09
|
Manifold
|
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2028?
| 0.1
|
Manifold
|
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026?
| 0.06
|
Manifold
|
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2025?
| 0.06
|
Manifold
|
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2024?
| 0.06
|
Manifold
|
Will there be a major data breach in 2024 affecting > 10 million people?
| 0.66
|
Manifold
|
Will a human land on the Sun by 2040?
| 0.04
|
Manifold
|
Will NE-02 and ME-02 vote for the same party in the 2024 presidential election?
| 0.27
|
Manifold
|
Will Ranga Dias leave university of Rochester before 2025?
| 0.5
|
Manifold
|
If AI destroys the world by 2035, will it be largely due to a company/lab based in the San Francisco Bay Area?
| 0.65
|
Manifold
|
Will Ranga Dias have his Ph.D revoked before 2030?
| 0.45
|
Manifold
|
Will the government of Iceland collapse before 2024?
| 0.16
|
Manifold
|
Will LEMMiNO upload a public video to his main channel before July 25th 2024?
| 0.8
|
Manifold
|
Will Rational animations use AI voice narration in at least one of the videos on the channel before 2024 end?
| 0.37
|
Manifold
|
Will Beyond Meat go bankrupt in 2025?
| 0.22
|
Manifold
|
Will a presenter or guest say "spacious computing" on stage during a Keynote before 2024 ends?
| 0.31
|
Manifold
|
Will Nintendo announce Splatoon 4 by the end of 2025?
| 0.34
|
Manifold
|
Will Meta release automated deepfake scanning for all images/videos before 2025
| 0.59
|
Manifold
|
There will be a time where skz's concert tickets will be sold out in (59) SECONDS (before 2030)
| 0.6
|
Manifold
|
Will we see any commercial solar cells with an efficiency >30% by the end of 2024?
| 0.43
|
Manifold
|
Will Hunter Biden spend at least a year in jail/prison by 2030?
| 0.18
|
Manifold
|
Will Salvatore Pais' "UFO" patent be publicly demonstrated before 2030?
| 0.17
|
Manifold
|
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